0:00:05 > 0:00:11Welcome to Outside Source. A wig and a half ago the European Union it
0:00:11 > 0:00:19said today was a deadline for the UK to suggest the Lilley -- a week and
0:00:19 > 0:00:23a half ago today the European Union said today was a deadline for the UK
0:00:23 > 0:00:27to reach progress with Brexit talks. But then today we have this.
0:00:27 > 0:00:32Sufficient progress was not made. There are differences which require
0:00:32 > 0:00:38further consultation and negotiation.It looks like getting a
0:00:38 > 0:00:41deal done, with Northern Ireland effectively remaining within the
0:00:41 > 0:00:44customs union but that was scuppered by Theresa May's Parliamentary
0:00:44 > 0:00:49partners from Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland must leave the
0:00:49 > 0:00:54European Union on the same terms as the rest of the UK.This is likely
0:00:54 > 0:00:59to add pressure to Theresa May from within her own party, and we will be
0:00:59 > 0:01:04to Westminster to discuss that. We will spend the whole of this edition
0:01:04 > 0:01:07concentrating on the many aspects is the Brexit story, and if you are
0:01:07 > 0:01:13confused by it, you are not the only one. -- many aspects of the Brexit
0:01:13 > 0:01:21story. We will be joined by Chris Morris from the BBC's reality check.
0:01:21 > 0:01:27Get in touch with us through Twitter and e-mail.
0:01:39 > 0:01:43We will spend the whole hour of Outside Source looking at the issue
0:01:43 > 0:01:49of Brexit, send in questions on any part of it. These Brexit talks come
0:01:49 > 0:01:54in two phases, the first one is all about the nature of the UK's
0:01:54 > 0:01:57departure and the second is all about the nature of the UK's future
0:01:57 > 0:02:02relationship with the EU, and for the second phase to start there
0:02:02 > 0:02:05needs to be sufficient progress in the first phase and we thought we
0:02:05 > 0:02:11might hear about that today, this is Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker,
0:02:11 > 0:02:14they met earlier we thought they might emerge to say they had reached
0:02:14 > 0:02:18that point. We were wondering, could they make enough progress on
0:02:18 > 0:02:22citizens rights and the divorce Bill and the Irish border and the answer
0:02:22 > 0:02:31was no.I'm still confident that we can reach sufficient progress before
0:02:31 > 0:02:37the European Council on the 15th of December, this is not a failure,
0:02:37 > 0:02:45this is the start of the very last part and I'm very confident.We have
0:02:45 > 0:02:48had a constructive meeting today, both sides have been working hard in
0:02:48 > 0:02:55good faith, we have been negotiating hard and progress has been made, on
0:02:55 > 0:02:59many of the issues there is a common understanding, but it is clear
0:02:59 > 0:03:02crucially that we want to move forward together, but on a couple of
0:03:02 > 0:03:07issues some differences remain which require further negotiation and
0:03:07 > 0:03:14consultation. And those will continue but we will reconvene
0:03:14 > 0:03:18before the end of the week and I'm also confident that we will conclude
0:03:18 > 0:03:28this positively.Our Europe editor said before these talks, that
0:03:28 > 0:03:34Ireland remains the toughest issue and she was proved completely right.
0:03:34 > 0:03:38The crux of the issue is the border between Northern Ireland and the
0:03:38 > 0:03:42Republic of Ireland, the only land border with the EU with the UK.
0:03:42 > 0:03:46There was a draft EU on this issue, it would have meant Northern Ireland
0:03:46 > 0:03:52remaining in the EU's customs union and single market, while the rest of
0:03:52 > 0:03:56the UK would leave those two, that was the plan, but he did not last
0:03:56 > 0:04:04long. Remember this? -- but it did not last long. The Prime Minister
0:04:04 > 0:04:08had to cut a deal after the last election with Arlene Foster the
0:04:08 > 0:04:11leader of the DUP, in Northern Ireland. This was Arlene Foster's
0:04:11 > 0:04:19statement.We were not accept any form of regulatory diverges which
0:04:19 > 0:04:22separates Northern Ireland economically or politically from the
0:04:22 > 0:04:28rest of the UK.And because of Theresa May's reliance on the DUP
0:04:28 > 0:04:32Diack legislation to the House of Commons, when they dig in, she needs
0:04:32 > 0:04:36to listen. And this is how it panned out.
0:04:45 > 0:04:51All of which left the Irish leader little bit amused. He gave this
0:04:51 > 0:04:57statement.Following the meeting this morning at the Irish
0:04:57 > 0:04:59negotiating team received confirmation from the British
0:04:59 > 0:05:03government and the Michel Barnier task force that the UK had agreed a
0:05:03 > 0:05:07text on the border that met our concerns but this text would form
0:05:07 > 0:05:13part of the broader EU UK agreement on the first phase and would allow
0:05:13 > 0:05:19us to move on to the second phase. I was contacted by the president of
0:05:19 > 0:05:21the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker and the president of the
0:05:21 > 0:05:25European Council Donald Tusk night confirmed to them both the Irish
0:05:25 > 0:05:31agreement that text of. -- to that text. I'm surprised and disappointed
0:05:31 > 0:05:34that the British government appears to not be in a position to conclude
0:05:34 > 0:05:39what was agreed earlier today. Christian Fraser has been digestive
0:05:39 > 0:05:49all of this.The objective this week is to find a form of words that both
0:05:49 > 0:05:53sides can agree, and what has happened, the British government
0:05:53 > 0:05:55spent a lot of time speaking to the Irish government to make sure that
0:05:55 > 0:05:59they are happy with the form of words and maybe they did not talk
0:05:59 > 0:06:05enough to the DUP and the other issue is that the European side,
0:06:05 > 0:06:08having got agreement with Dublin, did lots of briefing, saying we are
0:06:08 > 0:06:14positive, lots of positive optimism, but there was no counter briefing on
0:06:14 > 0:06:18the opposite side, so the media beat it up only to be left disappointed
0:06:18 > 0:06:25at the end. With Theresa May looking as if she had egg on her face, but
0:06:25 > 0:06:31I'm not sure that she would not have known the concerns of the DUP. Maybe
0:06:31 > 0:06:34the DUP talked about it to the cause of the morning and they could not
0:06:34 > 0:06:41sell it to their constituents -- the course. Arlene Foster came out with
0:06:41 > 0:06:47a firm statement that she was not going to accept it. One last thing,
0:06:47 > 0:06:50when it comes to politics in Northern Ireland, she has to look
0:06:50 > 0:06:56tough, so maybe this is part of the sequencing.That also applies to
0:06:56 > 0:07:00European politics in Brussels, as well. There are three issues there,
0:07:00 > 0:07:04citizens rights and the divorce Bill as well, have those two been
0:07:04 > 0:07:13mentioned as much?Yes, they have. About a week ago, we would have said
0:07:13 > 0:07:19the financial settlement was the sticking point, but we now know a
0:07:19 > 0:07:32formula has be arrived at, and that seems to have been put to bed.The
0:07:32 > 0:07:35European Parliament had a meeting ahead of Theresa May this morning
0:07:35 > 0:07:42and they are still not happy with some issues, like the role of the
0:07:42 > 0:07:45European Court of human justice, that is a red line for some of the
0:07:45 > 0:07:50Brexiteers in the UK, some of them said that was a red line for them
0:07:50 > 0:07:55and they don't like the fact that the ECJ would be consulted through
0:07:55 > 0:07:58the transition and they don't want that have any role when the UK has
0:07:58 > 0:08:06left the EU. But right now, it is the issue of Ireland, can they find
0:08:06 > 0:08:10a formula that all sides are happy with before that meeting of 27 EU
0:08:10 > 0:08:17leaders in ten days' time?I've been speaking to Paddy Smith, the Europe
0:08:17 > 0:08:21editor for the Irish Times. This is his take on the Irish political
0:08:21 > 0:08:28dimension to this story.It was a surprise to everybody because most
0:08:28 > 0:08:33of us thought that the deal was done. The Irish cabinet thought the
0:08:33 > 0:08:40deal was done, as well. The turnabout from Theresa May, it
0:08:40 > 0:08:44appears to have been at the behest of Arlene Foster, and that was a
0:08:44 > 0:08:50shock. No one would expect her not to know what Arlene Foster's views
0:08:50 > 0:08:55were on the subject.Given that Arlene Foster is saying the status
0:08:55 > 0:08:59of Northern Ireland when it comes to Brexit needs to match the rest of
0:08:59 > 0:09:03the UK, how do you think we go from here in terms of finding something
0:09:03 > 0:09:08that works for her and the Irish government?What is interesting, the
0:09:08 > 0:09:13position that the British government signed up to was much more subtle
0:09:13 > 0:09:18than she is giving them credit for, and it wasn't the same thing as
0:09:18 > 0:09:21being part of the customs union and the single market, it was talking
0:09:21 > 0:09:30about regulatory alignment apart from the EU, so the Northern Ireland
0:09:30 > 0:09:33regime would have been set up separately and it basically would
0:09:33 > 0:09:39have copied some of the laws but administered them themselves, so
0:09:39 > 0:09:46there was an element of independence in the proposals. It is arguable,
0:09:46 > 0:09:51the British can argue this is not creating a new regime in Northern
0:09:51 > 0:09:56Ireland apart from the rest of the UK, and it is actually handing
0:09:56 > 0:10:02powers to Northern Ireland executive which is in abeyance at the moment,
0:10:02 > 0:10:07unfortunately.Brexit is applying extra ordinary pressure to British
0:10:07 > 0:10:15politics and the same could be said of Irish politics, as well.Yes, it
0:10:15 > 0:10:21is a very serious salient in Irish politics, and we have had a
0:10:21 > 0:10:24political crisis in Ireland recently where it looked as if the government
0:10:24 > 0:10:27might have to throw in the towel and call an election but that has
0:10:27 > 0:10:34passed. There is a degree of agreement amongst political parties
0:10:34 > 0:10:38about the position that the government is taking on Brexit. In
0:10:38 > 0:10:42these negotiations, and in particular the emphasis on the board
0:10:42 > 0:10:45and what has to be done on the border.In terms of Arlene Foster's
0:10:45 > 0:10:52approach from now on, she has scuppered today's deal, she was
0:10:52 > 0:10:56important, what does Gmail seek to take from that place from Theresa
0:10:56 > 0:11:05May? -- what does she now sick.They will be frantic discussions between
0:11:05 > 0:11:09her and Theresa May in the next 24 hours, by problem is, I don't see
0:11:09 > 0:11:13what other formula the British government could come up with to
0:11:13 > 0:11:19meet the concerns that Ireland have and the rest of the European Union.
0:11:19 > 0:11:25-- my problem is. 27 member states have been united around this
0:11:25 > 0:11:30particular position. I can't see what other position the British
0:11:30 > 0:11:33government could take and formulate in the next two days that will have
0:11:33 > 0:11:43the same result. It is a question of the Tories persuading the DUP that
0:11:43 > 0:11:51it isn't worth the candle.Sarah says, when is the mainstream media
0:11:51 > 0:11:54going to talk about the possibility that a Brexit deal might not be
0:11:54 > 0:11:58possible at all. On the BBC, we have discussed this possibility many many
0:11:58 > 0:12:02times, the possibility of no deal, which all sides have said could come
0:12:02 > 0:12:07to pass but most have said they would rather you didn't. John is
0:12:07 > 0:12:12very critical of Brexit and says, can we tear up the Article 50
0:12:12 > 0:12:19letter. He says, if the UK wanted to change its mind, that it's possible,
0:12:19 > 0:12:22but there has been known sign from the UK Government that that will
0:12:22 > 0:12:30happen. Liam is asking what is the DUP statement mean, well, it means
0:12:30 > 0:12:33they have a significant amount of leverage and that is because Theresa
0:12:33 > 0:12:36May and the Conservatives have an agreement with the DUP and without
0:12:36 > 0:12:40that deal it would be almost impossible for the Conservatives to
0:12:40 > 0:12:44get legislation through the House of Commons and so the DUP has a lot of
0:12:44 > 0:12:47sway which is why any plan for Northern Ireland and the Irish
0:12:47 > 0:12:52border that Theresa May proposes evidently is going to need the
0:12:52 > 0:12:55support of Arlene Foster and her colleagues in the DUP. Keep the
0:12:55 > 0:13:02questions coming. When it comes to Brexit there's no doubt Theresa May
0:13:02 > 0:13:05is under pressure not just in Brussels and not just from her
0:13:05 > 0:13:08political opponents but also from within her own party. We will talk
0:13:08 > 0:13:14about the Brexiteers who want her to do more. We will be live in
0:13:14 > 0:13:17Westminster.
0:13:20 > 0:13:23There has been reaction to the suggestion that Northern Ireland
0:13:23 > 0:13:27might be able to leave the EU on different terms to the rest of the
0:13:27 > 0:13:34UK from the Mehrabad London. -- from the Mayor of London.What I've been
0:13:34 > 0:13:39arguing for some time now is for us to be a member of the single market
0:13:39 > 0:13:44and for us to have membership of the customs union but also if there is
0:13:44 > 0:13:49to be a cast iron guarantee feet EU citizens who contribute to our
0:13:49 > 0:13:55country -- for our EU citizens. The government has accepted the
0:13:55 > 0:13:58principle that if it is not the entire country being members of the
0:13:58 > 0:14:03customs union and the single market, part of the country can, and bearing
0:14:03 > 0:14:07in mind the importance to protecting tens of thousands of jobs, the
0:14:07 > 0:14:11government should also said to London, membership of the single
0:14:11 > 0:14:18market and the customs union and the cast-iron guarantee, that the entire
0:14:18 > 0:14:32country has the same deal. If that is the case.We are alive in the
0:14:32 > 0:14:34lesion with Outside Source. Asch live.
0:14:35 > 0:14:39The UK has failed to reach an agreement with the EU to move to the
0:14:39 > 0:14:45next stage of Brexit negotiations. We are devoting the programme to
0:14:45 > 0:14:51Brexit. BBC Arabic is reporting the killing of the former president of
0:14:51 > 0:15:01Yemen. He had been allied with the who
0:15:03 > 0:15:10it was the first president after it united in 1990. Yemen's military had
0:15:10 > 0:15:19been loyal to him. It is not clear where they will shift their
0:15:19 > 0:15:29loyalties do now. In Malta, eight people have been charged with the
0:15:29 > 0:15:33death of a journalist. An Australian MP proposed to his partner during a
0:15:33 > 0:15:40same-sex marriage debate in Parliament. You will be pleased to
0:15:40 > 0:15:47know that when he asked the question, the answer was yes. We
0:15:47 > 0:15:50have discussed the issue of the Irish border and now we can get the
0:15:50 > 0:15:57divorce Bill. This is the amount of money the UK will pay the EU to free
0:15:57 > 0:16:02itself of its ongoing financial commitments and liabilities. If you
0:16:02 > 0:16:06are watching last week we were reporting that the UK had indicated
0:16:06 > 0:16:14that it would make an offer of up to 50 billion Euros, which is up on
0:16:14 > 0:16:21what the British Foreign Secretary has suggested would be paid.The
0:16:21 > 0:16:24sums I've seen that they are demanding from this country seem to
0:16:24 > 0:16:31be extortionate and to go whistle is an entirely appropriate expression.
0:16:31 > 0:16:36The figure was also dismissed by the Brexit secretary David Davis.All
0:16:36 > 0:16:41sorts of stories flying around in the papers this morning. It was
0:16:41 > 0:16:45nonsense, the story is completely wrong.Chris Morris, the reality
0:16:45 > 0:16:49check correspondent, it did not prove to be entirely inaccurate,
0:16:49 > 0:16:58that story, so where are we now?Who would have thought, women get close
0:16:58 > 0:17:01to the endgame of sufficient progress that money might be the
0:17:01 > 0:17:08easy bit -- when we get close. It is easier to hide it, Frankie, some of
0:17:08 > 0:17:19the money might not be paid out four years and echoed stash -- frankly,
0:17:19 > 0:17:24some of the money might not be paid out for years or decades, and it
0:17:24 > 0:17:28will be hard for someone to come up with an exact figure. The Irish
0:17:28 > 0:17:32border is harder to phage, and that is why the money at the moment, and
0:17:32 > 0:17:36we might come back to problems, haggling over technical details, but
0:17:36 > 0:17:42at the moment that it pays to be sorted.We talk about the financial
0:17:42 > 0:17:45commitments but less about the liabilities, can you explain why the
0:17:45 > 0:17:52UK has two by its way out of certain liabilities?There are two things,
0:17:52 > 0:17:57the money it has committed, for development projects, and also
0:17:57 > 0:18:02assets which the EU has and the UK says we should have a share of
0:18:02 > 0:18:07those. It probably won't get a share of assets when it comes to buildings
0:18:07 > 0:18:12because it is difficult to break off a bit of building and legally the
0:18:12 > 0:18:15buildings and many of the assets belong to the EU as a whole rather
0:18:15 > 0:18:21than individual member states, and there are also cash assets like
0:18:21 > 0:18:24fines on companies, and that an area where the UK says, we would like
0:18:24 > 0:18:28some of that cash back, and some of those tentacled details will be
0:18:28 > 0:18:31haggled over behind the scenes in the months to come -- technical
0:18:31 > 0:18:36details.We will come back to you shortly, Chris, we have questions
0:18:36 > 0:18:43for you. Citizens rights now in more detail, there are 3.2 million EU
0:18:43 > 0:18:50citizens in the UK, and around a million UK citizens living in the
0:18:50 > 0:18:54EU, and this issue is complex because on the British side concern
0:18:54 > 0:18:59about levels of immigration drive the Brexit vote and on the EU side
0:18:59 > 0:19:04freedom of movement is the foundation of the single market. In
0:19:04 > 0:19:08October Theresa May made proposals which she said helped both groups of
0:19:08 > 0:19:14people, she said their rights will not diverged over time, but there
0:19:14 > 0:19:18has been divergences of a different type if you ask Michel Barnier. He
0:19:18 > 0:19:22has claimed there is agreement on how the rights of EU citizens in the
0:19:22 > 0:19:28UK will be guaranteed. A reference to the European Court of Justice.
0:19:28 > 0:19:34Just explain the role of the ECJ at the moment in deciding the rights of
0:19:34 > 0:19:40these EU citizens here and how the UK imagines this working.If you are
0:19:40 > 0:19:45a citizen of the European Union, any European member state, on anything
0:19:45 > 0:19:49to do with European law, that issue ultimate place of recourse, when the
0:19:49 > 0:19:55UK leaves, EU says it's citizens who are living in this country should
0:19:55 > 0:20:00also have some form of recourse to the ECJ, but Brexit supporters here
0:20:00 > 0:20:05say that is one of the reasons why we left, to rid ourselves of the
0:20:05 > 0:20:12overview of the ECJ, so that is a problem. Again, this is something
0:20:12 > 0:20:16which is difficult to phage, legal jurisdictions are black-and-white,
0:20:16 > 0:20:21but many of these other areas are searching for the grey areas and
0:20:21 > 0:20:27jurisdictions don't have many grey areas.In terms of what might be
0:20:27 > 0:20:31acceptable to both sides, I'll we talking about a third entity? -- are
0:20:31 > 0:20:37we.It is whether you could have indirect recourse to the ECJ, you
0:20:37 > 0:20:40could have a legal agreement on citizens rights which is written
0:20:40 > 0:20:45directly into UK law so much more difficult to change, and then if
0:20:45 > 0:20:49there are elements of European law within that agreement British courts
0:20:49 > 0:20:58might have to pay some heed to the European Court of Justice, but how
0:20:58 > 0:21:02much heed, that is a tricky issue, and there are people within the
0:21:02 > 0:21:05European Parliament who are very firm on this. The European
0:21:05 > 0:21:08Parliament gets a vote on the final withdrawal agreement and they are
0:21:08 > 0:21:12determined that the rights that the citizens of other EU countries have
0:21:12 > 0:21:20now in the UK, but they should not lose after Brexit.Chris, thanks.
0:21:20 > 0:21:22We're looking at Brexit from all of the different angles on Outside
0:21:22 > 0:21:28Source. And now the pressure on Theresa May's government, it comes
0:21:28 > 0:21:34in many forms. The government only functions because of a deal between
0:21:34 > 0:21:37the Conservative Party and the DUP in Northern Ireland, we have all you
0:21:37 > 0:21:40heard about the DUP's displeasure about the proposed plan for the
0:21:40 > 0:21:45Irish border and that plan would have allowed Northern Ireland to in
0:21:45 > 0:21:49effect stay in the EU's single market and customs union while the
0:21:49 > 0:21:53rest of the UK left, but unsurprisingly that immediately got
0:21:53 > 0:22:01a lot of attention in Scotland, this is Nicola Sturgeon saying this.
0:22:06 > 0:22:09Next, the Welsh First Minister Carwyn Jones.
0:22:15 > 0:22:19Both of them making the same point. Yet more evidence of the pressure
0:22:19 > 0:22:22that Brexit is applying to the UK's structure of devolved political
0:22:22 > 0:22:29power. These are live pictures coming from the House of Commons.
0:22:29 > 0:22:35MPs are debating the EU withdrawal bill. The issues on raising and many
0:22:35 > 0:22:40others are likely be coming up there, as well. -- I'm raising.
0:22:40 > 0:22:45Chris Mason is in Westminster. I have a stack of questions, but
0:22:45 > 0:22:48before I get to those, what precisely are the MPs debating at
0:22:48 > 0:22:56the moment?This is the giant piece of legislation that is working its
0:22:56 > 0:22:59way to the House of Commons and then we'll go to the other chamber of the
0:22:59 > 0:23:04British Parliament, the House of Lords -- will. It allows what will
0:23:04 > 0:23:08effectively be the cutting and pasting of the big EU rule book of
0:23:08 > 0:23:16laws and regulations into UK law, so on the day the UK leaves the EU
0:23:16 > 0:23:24there isn't a gap where things are not counted for in law. It is a
0:23:24 > 0:23:27colossal piece of work that Parliament is working on, taking up
0:23:27 > 0:23:31the entire bandwidth of the British Parliament. Not just in terms of the
0:23:31 > 0:23:35mental energy that Brexit is consuming at the moment, from the
0:23:35 > 0:23:40Prime Minister down, but also the legislative energy, very little else
0:23:40 > 0:23:43that the British government can do at the moment, given the vast
0:23:43 > 0:23:48challenge of delivering Brexit. What is happening on the floor of the
0:23:48 > 0:23:51House of Commons this evening is the latest illustration of that.Don't
0:23:51 > 0:23:57go anywhere. There is pressure of a different kind coming from a
0:23:57 > 0:24:01pro-campaign group, pro-Brexit group which has sent a letter to the Prime
0:24:01 > 0:24:05Minister asking that the EU agrees to certain demands before finalising
0:24:05 > 0:24:11that divorce Bill and these include ending free movement of EU citizens
0:24:11 > 0:24:14and ending the rule of the European Court of Justice in the UK as soon
0:24:14 > 0:24:21as Brexit happens. This is the Conservative MP Jacob Rees Mogg who
0:24:21 > 0:24:25is one of the signatories.It is very important that we don't hand
0:24:25 > 0:24:32over a great deal of money unless we have an agreement. The risk is we
0:24:32 > 0:24:37paid the money from the day we leave and that reduces our negotiating
0:24:37 > 0:24:41clout to get the trade deal finalised if it hasn't been done
0:24:41 > 0:24:46before the 29th of March 2019 and that seems an obvious point.We have
0:24:46 > 0:24:51seen pressure from the DUP, but presumably within the Conservative
0:24:51 > 0:24:54Party the Prime Minister is walking a delicate line.Incredibly
0:24:54 > 0:25:00delicate. If the last couple of minutes of our conversation has led
0:25:00 > 0:25:03you to conclude that whichever way the British Prime Minister looks
0:25:03 > 0:25:09there is potential trouble over compromises around Brexit, then in
0:25:09 > 0:25:13essence you have understood what today announced it. It is incredibly
0:25:13 > 0:25:18difficult. The simple reality for Theresa May is that she can't please
0:25:18 > 0:25:22everyone all the time, she can't even please some people all of the
0:25:22 > 0:25:29time, the whole nature of the politics of delivering Brexit is to
0:25:29 > 0:25:33encourage as many people to remain close to her argument as often as is
0:25:33 > 0:25:37possible and it is inevitable as she goes to the process that they will
0:25:37 > 0:25:45be some people all the time wanting to complain.Is the DUP getting all
0:25:45 > 0:25:50the money it was promised in the deal it made with the Prime
0:25:50 > 0:25:57Minister?It hasn't yet, but you can see the power they have got today.
0:25:57 > 0:26:00That was Chris, answer your questions, and I will be back in a
0:26:00 > 0:26:02couple of minutes. -- answering.
0:26:05 > 0:26:08Another winter storm moved into the western side of the United States at
0:26:08 > 0:26:11the end of last week and has continued its journey to the east,
0:26:11 > 0:26:16across central and northern parts of the US into the great Lakes as we
0:26:16 > 0:26:27Richmond AMG say, Gale force winds and heavy rain -- as we reach.
0:26:27 > 0:26:32Across the West, it is looking fine after the weather system has moved
0:26:32 > 0:26:36through but it will be cold despite the sunshine, looking at a frosty
0:26:36 > 0:26:41start to the day on Monday and Tuesday for Vancouver, Seattle and
0:26:41 > 0:26:50Portland. Into the south-eastern Asia, heavy rain in places,
0:26:50 > 0:26:57especially around the Philippines. Southern areas of Thailand and
0:26:57 > 0:27:01Indonesia and there could be the risk of flooding and landslides.
0:27:01 > 0:27:04Keeping a close eye on this cluster of heavy rain and thunderstorms in
0:27:04 > 0:27:07the Bay of Bengal, this could develop into a tropical cyclone as
0:27:07 > 0:27:14it moves north into the North East of India and southern Bangladesh.
0:27:14 > 0:27:18The big story in the last few days over South Asia is the severe
0:27:18 > 0:27:24cyclone in the Arabian Sea, causing problems in open waters to the
0:27:24 > 0:27:28Marine transport fatalities, and this system is weakening
0:27:28 > 0:27:33considerably as it pushes into the North East of India, bringing heavy
0:27:33 > 0:27:38rain into Mumbai as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday. Things then
0:27:38 > 0:27:41come down, it looks like the sunshine will make a return to this
0:27:41 > 0:27:45part of the world. It is the dry season across the north of India but
0:27:45 > 0:27:50more storms in the South. Into South East Asia, very heavy rain across
0:27:50 > 0:27:56parts of north-west Greece, into Albania, as well, fields have been
0:27:56 > 0:28:00inundated with waters and the rivers have burst their banks. These
0:28:00 > 0:28:02intense and storms have been affecting this portion of Europe but
0:28:02 > 0:28:07they will slowly eased down as the area of low pressure weakens and
0:28:07 > 0:28:15booziest, this mass of cloud has had snow -- weakens and moves East. It
0:28:15 > 0:28:21will fizzle out through Tuesday and Wednesday, as high pressure becomes
0:28:21 > 0:28:24the dominant feature, but it stays quite windy, you will notice the
0:28:24 > 0:28:31tight isobars for the high pressure will keep things fine as we head
0:28:31 > 0:28:36into Tuesday, slightly milder air pushing in off the Atlantic, as the
0:28:36 > 0:28:39area of high pressure moves in, but it will turn very wet and windy and
0:28:39 > 0:28:44very mild on Wednesday. Away from the far north, another fairly benign
0:28:44 > 0:28:50day, variable cloud, some sunshine, and it will feel quite mild in the
0:28:50 > 0:28:58sunshine, but quite cool further north. Much milder on Wednesday.
0:30:07 > 0:30:12Welcome back. It was the day that the EU set has a deadline for the UK
0:30:12 > 0:30:15to demonstrate sufficient progress in Brecht negotiations. But they
0:30:15 > 0:30:21haven't quite got there. This is what we heard earlier.It wasn't
0:30:21 > 0:30:25possible to reach a complete agreement today.On a couple of
0:30:25 > 0:30:29issues, some differences remain which require further negotiation
0:30:29 > 0:30:34and consultation.The deal that appears to have been on the table
0:30:34 > 0:30:38involve more than Ireland effectively remaining inside the
0:30:38 > 0:30:44EU's customs union. That idea was scuppered by Theresa May's
0:30:44 > 0:30:48Parliamentary partners. .Northern Ireland must leave the European
0:30:48 > 0:30:54Union on the same terms as the rest of the UK.The people have spoken
0:30:54 > 0:30:59and the answer is we are out.18 months on from the Brexit vote we
0:30:59 > 0:31:04speak to a pollster about why people voted them and whether they have
0:31:04 > 0:31:10been changing their minds. Keep sending your Brexit questions. Chris
0:31:10 > 0:31:16Morris is standing by.
0:31:30 > 0:31:34Chris is still here. There's a lot of interest in the Northern Ireland
0:31:34 > 0:31:38's suggestion that was scuppered and may yet reappear. Peter Parker would
0:31:38 > 0:31:41like to ask if Northern Ireland was to effectively remain in the single
0:31:41 > 0:31:45market does that mean the rest of the UK could use it as a back door
0:31:45 > 0:31:51to access it?This is a real problem in a couple of ways. If anyone
0:31:51 > 0:31:54thought Northern Ireland was fully in the UK and filly in the single
0:31:54 > 0:32:00market at the same time after the rest of the UK has left, if I ran a
0:32:00 > 0:32:05Chinese semiconductor company the first place I would want to set up
0:32:05 > 0:32:09his Belfast. Before I've measured up my shelves, rest assured the French
0:32:09 > 0:32:14will be saying hang on, you cannot use Northern Ireland as a back door
0:32:14 > 0:32:18into the single market. That will be the same for the rest of the UK.
0:32:18 > 0:32:26It's a point worth emphasising, there is no members -- membership
0:32:26 > 0:32:32liked.Darren asks, is there still a possibility the UK as a whole could
0:32:32 > 0:32:37remain in the single market? Theoretically yes. Take the example
0:32:37 > 0:32:42of Norway, it's in the single market and EEC but not in the European
0:32:42 > 0:32:46Union. It seems to me that parts of the Labour Party are moving towards
0:32:46 > 0:32:50an idea that may be staying in the single market and the customs union
0:32:50 > 0:32:55should be an option. Of course the Labour Party and in power.
0:32:55 > 0:32:59Practically under the current government, which we have to admit
0:32:59 > 0:33:07is fragile and the braille, no. But politics can change.-- fragile and
0:33:07 > 0:33:17febrile. Steve wants to ask, how much weight should we give to Sadiq
0:33:17 > 0:33:24Khan's idea that Lund of special status as well? -- London should
0:33:24 > 0:33:28have special status as well.There's a lot of politics going on here.
0:33:28 > 0:33:31Practically the idea that London could be in the single market and
0:33:31 > 0:33:38not the rest of England doesn't make sense to me. Politically, if you
0:33:38 > 0:33:42have Scotland saying we want a piece of this and England saying we want a
0:33:42 > 0:33:46piece of this, the idea of saying maybe the most sensible solution is
0:33:46 > 0:33:51staying in the single market in some form takes a deeper root. That's
0:33:51 > 0:33:54what a lot of supporters of staying in the EU would like as a
0:33:54 > 0:33:58second-best option but it's not what's on offer at the moment from
0:33:58 > 0:34:04this government.You. We are going to go through a couple of things. If
0:34:04 > 0:34:16we go back 18 months, these scenes were familiar. There was ten weeks
0:34:16 > 0:34:20of campaigning running up to the referendum on the 23rd of June 20
0:34:20 > 0:34:2716. In the end, it was Brexit. The vote to leave one pretty
0:34:27 > 0:34:35comfortably, 51.9%. Compare those details with this survey from YouGov
0:34:35 > 0:34:40today. They've been asking if the UK was right or wrong to leave the
0:34:40 > 0:34:49union. There's a lot to die just here but if we look at this, this is
0:34:49 > 0:34:54interesting. People who said it was the right decision to leave, 42%.
0:34:54 > 0:35:04People who said it was wrong, 44%. That shift but not much. This is one
0:35:04 > 0:35:10of the recurring themes of your work which is the regret that some people
0:35:10 > 0:35:15predicted Brexiteers would experience just hasn't materialised.
0:35:15 > 0:35:20What we've been measuring is that there has been little change in the
0:35:20 > 0:35:23overall level. The country remains divided down the middle on whether
0:35:23 > 0:35:27it is right or wrong to leave the EU but inevitably it is more
0:35:27 > 0:35:31complicated. Small numbers of people are changing their minds but in both
0:35:31 > 0:35:35directions. More importantly, around about seven out of ten people
0:35:35 > 0:35:38believe it's right Brexit should go ahead either because they supported
0:35:38 > 0:35:43it in the first place or because they believe the results of the
0:35:43 > 0:35:49referendum should be respected and democracy should have its day.The
0:35:49 > 0:35:51fact it's costing more than some Brexiteers suggested, the fact it
0:35:51 > 0:35:56may involve leaving the single market, that doesn't seem to be
0:35:56 > 0:36:00denting peoples attitudes?Because for most people they aren't paying
0:36:00 > 0:36:04that much attention to the minute detail and it's not really affecting
0:36:04 > 0:36:09them. It's a bit like having a large war in a far off country. Yes, it
0:36:09 > 0:36:13has its presence in the news, you hear about it but it doesn't affect
0:36:13 > 0:36:18you. It's only when these things start coming to our home shores and
0:36:18 > 0:36:21making differences to people's economic situation that we will see
0:36:21 > 0:36:29a difference. I think that will only be after decisions are made and
0:36:29 > 0:36:31perhaps then even years down the line.You say some people have
0:36:31 > 0:36:35changed their mind but not many, is possible to say who those people
0:36:35 > 0:36:39are?There isn't one group that has changed. It tends to be across
0:36:39 > 0:36:43different age groups. We are talking about tiny numbers. What hasn't
0:36:43 > 0:36:54emerged yet is a major Bregret group. My sense is it could be
0:36:54 > 0:36:57Labour supporters in industrial towns if they feel they aren't
0:36:57 > 0:37:01getting the deal they expected. It could also be the case that when a
0:37:01 > 0:37:05final decision is reached, huge numbers of people if they believe
0:37:05 > 0:37:08that decision goes too far and another huge number believe it
0:37:08 > 0:37:12doesn't go far enough, and what's left in the middle is a fairly small
0:37:12 > 0:37:17number of people that support the final analysis.A number of viewers
0:37:17 > 0:37:21are asking about the possibility of a second referendum which neither of
0:37:21 > 0:37:28the two big parties are offering. Is their interest in that or is that a
0:37:28 > 0:37:31Remain fantasy?It's not large numbers of people that believe a
0:37:31 > 0:37:35second referendum is appropriate, but that's how things stand at the
0:37:35 > 0:37:39moment. The reason we are tracking this so regularly is because as the
0:37:39 > 0:37:43situation changes, so does public opinion. It may be the Conservatives
0:37:43 > 0:37:47or Labour offer a second referendum on a final deal before we go into
0:37:47 > 0:37:51the next election.Does the perception that perhaps the
0:37:51 > 0:37:55negotiations haven't gone as smoothly as promised, is that
0:37:55 > 0:38:00something people factor in when they talk to you?It appears to because
0:38:00 > 0:38:04people expected the negotiations to go badly. Although the government is
0:38:04 > 0:38:08saying it's not going as well as expected, most people expected it to
0:38:08 > 0:38:11go badly and they have failed to be disappointed with their
0:38:11 > 0:38:16expectations.Anything you would pick out but we should pay attention
0:38:16 > 0:38:23to? Particularly in the press, we have newspapers keen for this to be
0:38:23 > 0:38:26a success and others with concerns. It's difficult to gauge the finer
0:38:26 > 0:38:31points but is there a story we are missing?The crucial question is
0:38:31 > 0:38:35when people start to think it affects their own economic
0:38:35 > 0:38:38circumstances. It's fine for people to think the country is taking a hit
0:38:38 > 0:38:42but what about them. It's the equivalent of the draft being
0:38:42 > 0:38:46introduced. When that starts to affect people at home, then we may
0:38:46 > 0:38:50see an impact and it's that we should be looking out for.Thank
0:38:50 > 0:38:55you. We've had a question from Jeffrey wants to ask about the World
0:38:55 > 0:38:59Trade Organisation. If these negotiations don't go to plan, where
0:38:59 > 0:39:05does the WTO fit into how the UK and the EU may have to trade?If we have
0:39:05 > 0:39:10no deal with the EU, so no withdrawal agreement and therefore
0:39:10 > 0:39:14no transition, suddenly when we leave the EU we have to trade and
0:39:14 > 0:39:18sometimes. If you like to default to the basic rules of the World Trade
0:39:18 > 0:39:24Organisation. It's not impossible but it would be a big shock to many
0:39:24 > 0:39:28sectors of the economy. Tariffs would be introduced in both
0:39:28 > 0:39:33directions. The trouble is that only accounts for trading goods. The vast
0:39:33 > 0:39:37majority now of the British economy is a service economy. If we fall out
0:39:37 > 0:39:41of the EU without any deal of any kind, the service sector would be
0:39:41 > 0:39:45badly hit and I think that's the real concern for many businesses.
0:39:45 > 0:39:51Thank you. If you want more information on Brexit head to the
0:39:51 > 0:40:01BBC website.
0:40:03 > 0:40:07If sufficient progress is made in phase one of the Brexit talks, then
0:40:07 > 0:40:13phase two can start. This will look at a new trade deal between the UK
0:40:13 > 0:40:16and the EU. We've just been discussing it with Chris. For Brexit
0:40:16 > 0:40:20supporters this is a huge deal because traders an opportunity in
0:40:20 > 0:40:25their eyes. Not just with the EU but beyond as well. Here is the Brexit
0:40:25 > 0:40:33Secretary David Davis in July 2016. Within two years...
0:40:42 > 0:40:45Let's be clear, the timescale Mr Davies describes is looking
0:40:45 > 0:40:50impossible now. In time, of course, those deals may follow. Next, this
0:40:50 > 0:40:54is Britain's trade Secretary Liam Fox. He is also optimistic. He said
0:40:54 > 0:41:00this about trading with the EU 's. If you think about it, the free
0:41:00 > 0:41:03trade agreement we will have to come to with the European Union should be
0:41:03 > 0:41:08one of the easiest in human history. We are already beginning with zero
0:41:08 > 0:41:16tariffs, we are already beginning at the point of maximal regulatory
0:41:16 > 0:41:18equivalents, in other words our rules and laws are exactly the same.
0:41:18 > 0:41:21Britain says the transition to this new deal will last around two years.
0:41:21 > 0:41:26Perhaps it will, but in October the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier
0:41:26 > 0:41:30gave an interview in which he said it could take several years to
0:41:30 > 0:41:34negotiate. He also talked about this new trade deal between the UK and EU
0:41:34 > 0:41:41being... We should note, that deal between the EU and Canada is limited
0:41:41 > 0:41:46in areas such as banking. Banking is crucial to the British economy so
0:41:46 > 0:41:51you would imagine the UK would want something different. Another
0:41:51 > 0:41:55perspective comes from the head of the World Trade Organisation.
0:41:55 > 0:42:00Clearly, this is not going to be a situation where all trade stops.
0:42:00 > 0:42:05There is a lapse in terms of the economy as a whole. That is the end
0:42:05 > 0:42:10of the world, but it's not going to be a walk in the park. There will be
0:42:10 > 0:42:15an impact. The tendency is that prices will go up, of course. You
0:42:15 > 0:42:19have to absorb the cost of that disruption.That is the head of the
0:42:19 > 0:42:25WTO. Chris, we talk about moving on to phase two about trade talks
0:42:25 > 0:42:30between the UK and the EU. What does that mean in practice?They aren't
0:42:30 > 0:42:34going to be trade talks as international trade negotiators
0:42:34 > 0:42:39define where you get down to the nitty-gritty of the legal text. Most
0:42:39 > 0:42:44people say it will take longer than we had under the Article 50 process,
0:42:44 > 0:42:49the two-year period until Brexit day. What the EU side is saying, and
0:42:49 > 0:42:52it's not what David Davis is hoping for as we heard in the clip, but
0:42:52 > 0:42:56what they are saying is what we are looking for is by October next year
0:42:56 > 0:43:01we want a broad statement of political principle about how the
0:43:01 > 0:43:04future relationship looks. Not just on trade but on Security and other
0:43:04 > 0:43:09issues as well. That gives a few months until Brexit for a withdrawal
0:43:09 > 0:43:14agreement and some of those broad principles to be ratified by the
0:43:14 > 0:43:18European Parliament and the UK Parliament and others. Most experts
0:43:18 > 0:43:23to look at this say, most of the detailed technical negotiation will
0:43:23 > 0:43:27have to be done after Brexit, not before, which is why it's so
0:43:27 > 0:43:30important for many businesses to have this transition period. Theresa
0:43:30 > 0:43:34May likes to call it an implementation period, to smooth the
0:43:34 > 0:43:38path.There are these major ambitions for new deals with India,
0:43:38 > 0:43:43China, the US and others. When can the UK get on with that?Part of the
0:43:43 > 0:43:47problem is most of those countries won't really finalise a deal with
0:43:47 > 0:43:52the UK until they know what its relationship with the EU looks like.
0:43:52 > 0:43:56You have countries like Japan, a lot of Japanese investment in the UK is
0:43:56 > 0:44:00because for them it's a bridgehead into the single market. If that is
0:44:00 > 0:44:04going to change dramatically, countries are going to want to know.
0:44:04 > 0:44:08They can start to scope out those agreements but I don't think these
0:44:08 > 0:44:11final agreements will really happen until the relationship between the
0:44:11 > 0:44:18UK and the EU becomes clear. We are looking... Britain is not going to
0:44:18 > 0:44:22sink beneath the waves but to get back to some sort of equilibrium
0:44:22 > 0:44:27where we know what all our trading nation chips look like could take
0:44:27 > 0:44:31several years to achieve.We have phase one going on at the moment, at
0:44:31 > 0:44:35some stage phase two will start. If the idea they come together into one
0:44:35 > 0:44:42deal which is agreed six months out from Brexit?If we get the fabled
0:44:42 > 0:44:46sufficient progress in December that kind of marks the start of phase
0:44:46 > 0:44:50two. In phase two they will have three things. Number one, the
0:44:50 > 0:44:53finalisation of what we've been discussing already. The Irish
0:44:53 > 0:44:58border, citizens' rights and the financial settlement. Then you'll
0:44:58 > 0:45:01have a discussion about transition. There is a hope that can be wrapped
0:45:01 > 0:45:05up relatively quickly to give business some confidence there will
0:45:05 > 0:45:08be continuity, although there are some very tricky issues surrounding
0:45:08 > 0:45:14transition not least the future of third country deals. Hundreds of
0:45:14 > 0:45:17deals which the UK is only part because at the moment it's part of
0:45:17 > 0:45:22the EU. Those won't necessarily simply roll over when the UK leaves.
0:45:22 > 0:45:26Can it not copy and paste them in the way it has with some European
0:45:26 > 0:45:30law into UK law?They have to get the permission and agreement of
0:45:30 > 0:45:32dozens of countries around the world. You can't just have an
0:45:32 > 0:45:37agreement between the UK and the EU and tell third countries to sign up
0:45:37 > 0:45:41for it. It's a complex process. The third part of what happens is this
0:45:41 > 0:45:46broad discussion of what the future relationship looks like. The idea is
0:45:46 > 0:45:50you need to leave a few months at the end for ratification. It needs
0:45:50 > 0:45:55to be ratified by the European Parliament, the UK Parliament is
0:45:55 > 0:45:59going to get a substantial vote and other capitals need to look at it.
0:45:59 > 0:46:05It's still a tight timetable and there's a lot to do.Thank you. We
0:46:05 > 0:46:09are trying to get through every aspect of the situation with Brexit
0:46:09 > 0:46:16across this edition. We can't really say this enough, nothing is agreed
0:46:16 > 0:46:19in these Brexit talks without the UK Government and the governments of
0:46:19 > 0:46:23the other 27 members of the EU agreeing. You'll hear me talking
0:46:23 > 0:46:29about Michel Barnier a lot the chief Brexit negotiator. There is
0:46:29 > 0:46:32Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission. They are
0:46:32 > 0:46:37hugely important in this process. But in the end, it will be those 27
0:46:37 > 0:46:42members of the European Union who have to get the final sign.
0:46:42 > 0:46:46Arguably, while we've been concentrating on Westminster and
0:46:46 > 0:46:50Brussels, Germany is the most important of those EU members. This
0:46:50 > 0:47:01is one view of the German attitude towards Brexit. Certainly when I was
0:47:01 > 0:47:04covering the German elections in September, Brexit wasn't coming up a
0:47:04 > 0:47:09great deal. That election gave Angela Merkel a difficult hand. Her
0:47:09 > 0:47:13party was the biggest but she had a disappointing election and is trying
0:47:13 > 0:47:21to form a coalition government still. That a destruction. -- that
0:47:21 > 0:47:25is a distraction.There's no official reaction from the German
0:47:25 > 0:47:32government but today's developments won't help to ease what is now a
0:47:32 > 0:47:36profound and all-encompassing sense of concern in Germany that this is
0:47:36 > 0:47:40not going to end well. I'm not talking so much politically but
0:47:40 > 0:47:45among industrial voices. Business voices, there is a fear that Britain
0:47:45 > 0:47:50is going to crash out of the EU without a deal which could have
0:47:50 > 0:47:54profound implications for German export businesses. But something
0:47:54 > 0:47:57that the business world is very concerned about. They are also
0:47:57 > 0:48:01worried about what happens in the meantime. The instability this
0:48:01 > 0:48:05brings, their inability to plan for the future. On the political front
0:48:05 > 0:48:08Angela Merkel of course is busy herself trying to fix a new
0:48:08 > 0:48:15government. In a sense, nothing in Germany has changed in the last year
0:48:15 > 0:48:19or so. Angela Merkel has always been keen to emphasise in particular to
0:48:19 > 0:48:25things. First of all the remaining EU 27 member states have to stick
0:48:25 > 0:48:29together, have to present a united front. Secondly, she will save there
0:48:29 > 0:48:35are principles to which the EU simply have to stick and one of
0:48:35 > 0:48:40those is freedom of movement. It's not something from which Germany is
0:48:40 > 0:48:44prepared to budge. What's really striking in Germany is whoever you
0:48:44 > 0:48:49speak to, whether it's the public, politicians, businesses, pop and
0:48:49 > 0:48:53large they will say the same thing. They really sad, they didn't want to
0:48:53 > 0:49:01see Britain leave the EU.Next we go to Spain and we are going to hear
0:49:01 > 0:49:05from our report in Barcelona.
0:49:10 > 0:49:14Also we need to bear in mind Gibraltar. It hasn't come to the
0:49:14 > 0:49:18boil as an issue yet but it could still do between the EU and the UK.
0:49:18 > 0:49:24Here are more details.Spain and the UK have a close relationship in many
0:49:24 > 0:49:30economic areas, not least of all in tourism. Last year 17 million
0:49:30 > 0:49:35British people visited Spain on holiday. But also there are around
0:49:35 > 0:49:38300,000 British people who live in Spain. Many of them are pensioners
0:49:38 > 0:49:43who live on the Costa Del Sol. The Spanish authorities are concerned
0:49:43 > 0:49:48about those British people. They don't want them to return back to
0:49:48 > 0:49:52Britain. Also the Spanish authorities are watching closely the
0:49:52 > 0:49:56status of their own nationals, tens of thousands of them, who live and
0:49:56 > 0:50:03work in Britain. Beyond that, there is also the issue of Gibraltar. The
0:50:03 > 0:50:07territory on the southern tip of the Iberian peninsular which belongs to
0:50:07 > 0:50:11Britain, but that ownership is disputed by Spain. Spain has said it
0:50:11 > 0:50:17wants to have a veto over any Brexit deal that has any kind of impact on
0:50:17 > 0:50:21Gibraltar. Those are some of the issues that the Spanish authorities
0:50:21 > 0:50:25are watching very closely when it comes to the Brexit negotiations.
0:50:25 > 0:50:29Well, Spain and Germany are among the older members of the EU. If you
0:50:29 > 0:50:34go further east, while many Eastern European countries joined the EU
0:50:34 > 0:50:42within the last 15 years, one of them is Poland.Here in Warsaw there
0:50:42 > 0:50:47are two main Brexit issues. By far the biggest is securing the rights
0:50:47 > 0:50:52of the 900,000 polls already living in the UK. At the moment their
0:50:52 > 0:50:55status is unclear and that has caused great uncertainty both for
0:50:55 > 0:51:01them and their families back here. Secondly, money. Poland gets more
0:51:01 > 0:51:05than any other country under the current EU budget and Britain is a
0:51:05 > 0:51:11big contributor to that budget. With the UK leaving, there is some
0:51:11 > 0:51:15concern there could be a shortfall in cash and that could mean fewer EU
0:51:15 > 0:51:22funds for Poland. Survey after survey shows that Poles probe
0:51:22 > 0:51:26overwhelmingly support being in the EU. Brexit doesn't appear to have
0:51:26 > 0:51:29changed that. What might be beginning to influence opinion is
0:51:29 > 0:51:33the ongoing dispute between Warsaw and Brussels over the rule of law.
0:51:33 > 0:51:39Some Poles are beginning to think it might be better to follow Britain's
0:51:39 > 0:51:44lead.Before we finish this special edition, we are going to speak to
0:51:44 > 0:51:47Chris Morris again. I want to run you through the Brexit timetable for
0:51:47 > 0:51:53the next couple of weeks. On the 6th of December Jean-Claude Juncker
0:51:53 > 0:51:57hosts a session of the European Council. The chief EU Brexit
0:51:57 > 0:52:01negotiator Michel Barnier is expected to give an update on
0:52:01 > 0:52:05whether sufficient progress has been made to go ahead to phase two. But
0:52:05 > 0:52:10will be decided by how those top-level negotiations are going on
0:52:10 > 0:52:16citizens' rights, the divorce Bill and the Irish border. On December
0:52:16 > 0:52:1914, EU leaders including Theresa will gather for a summit in
0:52:19 > 0:52:23Brussels. These happen on a Thursday and a Friday and on the Friday
0:52:23 > 0:52:31December 15, Theresa May will leave the leaders of the remaining 27 will
0:52:31 > 0:52:37decide if phase two can begin. Chris, we know these things tend to
0:52:37 > 0:52:41get thrashed out before the summit begins.They do. You mentioned the
0:52:41 > 0:52:48sixth which is only two days' time, there is some suggestion Theresa May
0:52:48 > 0:52:54baby back in Brussels -- may be back in Brussels. There will be a lot of
0:52:54 > 0:52:58chat tomorrow between the Conservatives, her Cabinet and the
0:52:58 > 0:53:02DUP. They realise if you can't sort this out in the next couple of days
0:53:02 > 0:53:05it's probably going to be too late to achieve what they want to do at
0:53:05 > 0:53:12the summit week later. The danger then is if sufficient progress is
0:53:12 > 0:53:16announced, is for agreed to be reached on the broad outlines of the
0:53:16 > 0:53:25other 27 saying we can move on and here are our guidelines. If that
0:53:25 > 0:53:28doesn't happen on the 14th, you've got the Christmas holiday, New Year
0:53:28 > 0:53:34and suddenly it's January. The clock starts ticking even further. I think
0:53:34 > 0:53:38they need to get it done in the next 72 hours to prepare for that summit
0:53:38 > 0:53:44at the end of next week.Gordon says what happens if there is no deal on
0:53:44 > 0:53:48the Irish border? Isn't that an thinkable?If there is no deal on
0:53:48 > 0:53:52the Irish border, if you got to the stage of Brexit and nothing had been
0:53:52 > 0:53:55agreed and Northern Ireland left the single market and the customs union
0:53:55 > 0:53:59along with the rest of the UK, there would have to be border checks on
0:53:59 > 0:54:04that border. A hard border would re-emerge. The problem is the
0:54:04 > 0:54:07British government appears to have red lines which slightly contradict
0:54:07 > 0:54:10each other. We want Northern Ireland and the UK to leave the single
0:54:10 > 0:54:15market and the customs union but we want no evidence of any border, an
0:54:15 > 0:54:18invisible border if you like, between Northern Ireland and the
0:54:18 > 0:54:23republic. It is difficult to marry them together. You can have certain
0:54:23 > 0:54:28fudges. Maybe there is this regulatory alignment between the
0:54:28 > 0:54:32Republic and Northern Ireland on certain key issues like agriculture,
0:54:32 > 0:54:36energy. There's a lot of the detail which gets very difficult and
0:54:36 > 0:54:40technical. They aren't there yet. I'm not expecting you to answer a
0:54:40 > 0:54:46detailed question about the cruise industry but is one save, how will
0:54:46 > 0:54:51this affect how the cruise industry works? I guess it highlights how
0:54:51 > 0:54:56there are lots of questions for businesses about how, if they reach
0:54:56 > 0:55:01across from the UK into the EU, how it's just going to work in practical
0:55:01 > 0:55:11terms.Presumably you mean big ocean liners? A cruise liner based out of
0:55:11 > 0:55:15Southampton at the moment, there will be a regulation which the
0:55:15 > 0:55:19Maritime safety agency, and EU safety which all EU countries are
0:55:19 > 0:55:25part of. If the UK going to stay part of that, is it going to mirror
0:55:25 > 0:55:28the regulations? We talk about things like regulations but that is
0:55:28 > 0:55:31how the world operates, and rules and regulations. At the moment we
0:55:31 > 0:55:38have the same as the rest of the EU and that is going to change.I'll
0:55:38 > 0:55:41find a question you can't answer at some point but I haven't managed it
0:55:41 > 0:55:46today! You can get more from the team not just an Brexit but an lots
0:55:46 > 0:55:53of news stories, search for BBC reality check. Thank you for
0:55:53 > 0:55:56watching this special and Brexit. We are back tomorrow at the same time
0:55:56 > 0:56:03covering a range of stories.