0:00:02 > 0:00:04Tonight on Panorama...
0:00:04 > 0:00:07The battle that's coming over immigration...
0:00:08 > 0:00:11..the voters still crying out for change...
0:00:11 > 0:00:14We've got enough, ducky. We've got enough.
0:00:15 > 0:00:19..the businesses who say they need immigrants...
0:00:19 > 0:00:21You must have friends who say, "For goodness' sake,
0:00:21 > 0:00:23"why don't you employ British people to do these jobs?"
0:00:23 > 0:00:25Where are they?
0:00:25 > 0:00:27Of course business wants to carry on what it's been doing,
0:00:27 > 0:00:30because it's easy, but the responsibility of government
0:00:30 > 0:00:33is to look after the consumer and the citizen.
0:00:33 > 0:00:38Calls to control immigration drove the vote to leave the EU -
0:00:38 > 0:00:39but what now?
0:00:39 > 0:00:42They keep promising to come forward with their ideas
0:00:42 > 0:00:45and they keep putting it off.
0:00:46 > 0:00:49Who will do the jobs done now by people from the EU?
0:00:49 > 0:00:50Chicken wrap?
0:00:50 > 0:00:53There's a danger that if we can't recruit people,
0:00:53 > 0:00:55and we've already seen it in America,
0:00:55 > 0:00:57that people will be replaced by robots.
0:00:57 > 0:01:02That is the way the industry will go if we cannot employ people.
0:01:02 > 0:01:04There's only a year to go till Brexit,
0:01:04 > 0:01:08and yet we still don't have answer to a very big question -
0:01:08 > 0:01:10who should we let in?
0:01:26 > 0:01:29Welcome to one of the top Brexit-backing areas
0:01:29 > 0:01:30in the country -
0:01:30 > 0:01:32Mansfield in Nottinghamshire.
0:01:32 > 0:01:3470% here voted to leave
0:01:34 > 0:01:37and it doesn't take you very long
0:01:37 > 0:01:40to find a clue as to why that was.
0:01:42 > 0:01:44Do you want to see immigration the same,
0:01:44 > 0:01:46so you want to see it cut, do you want to see it go up?
0:01:46 > 0:01:47Cut.
0:01:47 > 0:01:50- You think it should be cut? - Yeah. It should be capped.
0:01:50 > 0:01:52Do you think we need to cut immigration in this country?
0:01:52 > 0:01:53Yes.
0:01:53 > 0:01:56Do you think immigration needs to be cut?
0:01:57 > 0:01:59- Yes.- You do?- I do. Honestly, yeah.
0:01:59 > 0:02:02So far, so simple, then.
0:02:02 > 0:02:04What's a little bit more tricky
0:02:04 > 0:02:07is deciding who exactly should be let into the country
0:02:07 > 0:02:09and who should be kept out.
0:02:09 > 0:02:11Ask you a question?
0:02:11 > 0:02:14Do you think immigration in this country needs to be cut?
0:02:14 > 0:02:18- Yes, I do.- Who should come in, then? Who should we let in?
0:02:18 > 0:02:21- Erm, professional people. - Professional?
0:02:21 > 0:02:23- Yeah.- What, people with skills?
0:02:23 > 0:02:24People with skills, yeah.
0:02:24 > 0:02:27Should we let any unskilled people come in?
0:02:27 > 0:02:30Well, I should think... I think they should be monitored.
0:02:30 > 0:02:32Let me just ask you about a few different groups.
0:02:32 > 0:02:34- This is my Happy Families game. - Oh, right.
0:02:34 > 0:02:35Do you think we should have, erm,
0:02:35 > 0:02:37foreign bricklayers coming into the country?
0:02:37 > 0:02:39- Oh, yeah. - You would let foreign bricklayers?
0:02:39 > 0:02:41- Yeah.- OK. What about fruit pickers?
0:02:41 > 0:02:44- Controlled, I think. - But would they come in?
0:02:44 > 0:02:46- Well, controlled, yeah. - So some would come in?- Yeah, yeah.
0:02:46 > 0:02:48Some foreign fruit pi...
0:02:48 > 0:02:50What about care workers, looking after the elderly?
0:02:50 > 0:02:51Yeah, yeah. Absolutely.
0:02:51 > 0:02:53So we'd have some of them from abroad. Lorry drivers?
0:02:53 > 0:02:56- Yes.- You haven't said no to anybody yet!
0:02:56 > 0:02:57What about chefs?
0:02:57 > 0:03:00Depends, if they... if they've got no chefs, yes.
0:03:00 > 0:03:03Some chefs, OK. Who don't you want to come in?
0:03:03 > 0:03:06Uh, well, you know, just say it's got to be controlled.
0:03:06 > 0:03:08But you haven't identified a single job
0:03:08 > 0:03:10that you don't want foreigners to do.
0:03:10 > 0:03:13It's not the jobs, it's the people who want to come over
0:03:13 > 0:03:16- and sit on their backside and do... - And do nothing.- ..and do nothing.
0:03:16 > 0:03:18- Scroungers?- Yeah.- Scroungers, yes.
0:03:18 > 0:03:20But in this area, do you think a lot of the immigrants are scroungers?
0:03:20 > 0:03:22- No.- No, no. - Most of them are hard workers.
0:03:22 > 0:03:24If they're prepared to work...
0:03:24 > 0:03:29- See, what's interesting to me is you want to see immigration cut...- Yeah.
0:03:29 > 0:03:31..every single job I showed you,
0:03:31 > 0:03:33you said we need them coming from abroad.
0:03:33 > 0:03:36So who is it we stop coming, then?
0:03:36 > 0:03:39Well...I don't know.
0:03:39 > 0:03:41You've stumped me.
0:03:41 > 0:03:43I'm stumped for words.
0:03:46 > 0:03:49It's not just voters who are stumped.
0:03:49 > 0:03:51For all the talk about Brexit,
0:03:51 > 0:03:55ministers have said almost nothing about immigration -
0:03:55 > 0:04:00and now they say they need advice from a committee of experts.
0:04:02 > 0:04:05First we were told an immigration policy would come last Christmas,
0:04:05 > 0:04:09then we were told it would come this spring, now it's the autumn...
0:04:09 > 0:04:10Why the dithering?
0:04:11 > 0:04:13I think there isn't any dithering.
0:04:13 > 0:04:16What I'm committed to doing is making evidence-based policy.
0:04:16 > 0:04:18We will bring an immigration policy forward
0:04:18 > 0:04:21when we're ready and when we're convinced that we're doing it
0:04:21 > 0:04:23with the right evidence in the right way.
0:04:28 > 0:04:30The Government are caught in a trap.
0:04:30 > 0:04:33They promised to cut immigration, yet the numbers coming here
0:04:33 > 0:04:36are still many more than those leaving.
0:04:36 > 0:04:41Last year, net migration was more than 244,000.
0:04:41 > 0:04:44That's more than double the population of Mansfield -
0:04:44 > 0:04:47and yet businesses are complaining they're struggling
0:04:47 > 0:04:51to get the EU workers they need, and that spells trouble.
0:04:57 > 0:05:01The number of workers coming here from Europe is now falling,
0:05:01 > 0:05:04and some, like Radu - a Romanian trucker who's been here
0:05:04 > 0:05:07for five years - are now planning to leave.
0:05:09 > 0:05:13There are 40,000 lorry drivers from the EU on Britain's roads -
0:05:13 > 0:05:15that's one in eight of them.
0:05:18 > 0:05:22I decide to leave the UK because the future is unsure here,
0:05:22 > 0:05:25and I have other opportunities in other countries
0:05:25 > 0:05:27like Germany, like France.
0:05:27 > 0:05:31I can go and work there and I know what's going to happen
0:05:31 > 0:05:33in the future because they will stay in the EU...
0:05:35 > 0:05:38..and I will have rights to work there, to live there,
0:05:38 > 0:05:41to bring my family together to stay together with me.
0:05:46 > 0:05:50The industry's worried that the Romanians and Poles
0:05:50 > 0:05:54they've relied on are beginning to find work elsewhere,
0:05:54 > 0:05:56leaving them exposed.
0:05:56 > 0:06:00We estimate, though it's a pretty accurate estimate,
0:06:00 > 0:06:05that we're about 50,000 drivers short in the UK
0:06:05 > 0:06:09from where we'd like to be and where we are at the moment.
0:06:09 > 0:06:13- 50,000 jobs...- 50,000, yes. - ..driving trucks and lorries?- Yes.
0:06:13 > 0:06:15- That we...- And you haven't got the people for them?
0:06:15 > 0:06:17We haven't got the people for them.
0:06:17 > 0:06:19We're talking about global pulls on people.
0:06:19 > 0:06:22Extraordinary that we're seeing this
0:06:22 > 0:06:26now that Polish people are wanted back in Poland more than ever.
0:06:26 > 0:06:29They're also wanted in Germany, more than ever.
0:06:29 > 0:06:34So, there is a global labour market which is more mobile
0:06:34 > 0:06:37than it ever was, and will they move?
0:06:37 > 0:06:38Yes, they will.
0:06:38 > 0:06:41Leigh, you must have friends who say, "For goodness' sake,
0:06:41 > 0:06:43"why don't you employ British people to do these jobs
0:06:43 > 0:06:45"instead of Poles and Romanians?"
0:06:45 > 0:06:48And I give them this answer. Where are they?
0:06:50 > 0:06:52And if he can't get the drivers he needs,
0:06:52 > 0:06:56that won't just affect his business, it'll affect yours.
0:06:56 > 0:06:59Leigh told me that free next-day deliveries
0:06:59 > 0:07:02could soon become a thing of the past.
0:07:09 > 0:07:11Hotels, pubs and restaurants
0:07:11 > 0:07:13get even more of their workers from the EU.
0:07:16 > 0:07:19- Are you having in or taking away, madam?- Take away, please.
0:07:19 > 0:07:20Anything else for you?
0:07:21 > 0:07:26In this chain of salad bars, it's 80%.
0:07:26 > 0:07:29Two years ago on Gumtree, you'd put an advert on, within an hour,
0:07:29 > 0:07:36you'd have 300 applicants, of which you could discount 200.
0:07:36 > 0:07:41- And now?- And now, maybe five to ten applications.
0:07:41 > 0:07:44- That's dramatic, isn't it? - Yes, it's fallen off a cliff.
0:07:46 > 0:07:49So people are thinking, "Well, do I want to come to Britain
0:07:49 > 0:07:51"where, if I came two years ago,
0:07:51 > 0:07:53"my take home pay has suddenly dropped by 20%
0:07:53 > 0:07:57"because of the fall in the pound, or do I want to go to Germany
0:07:57 > 0:08:01"where I will be guaranteed to stay there for a much longer time,
0:08:01 > 0:08:03"where their economy is strong?"
0:08:05 > 0:08:08For years, Britain was seen as the best place in Europe
0:08:08 > 0:08:10for young people to find a job.
0:08:10 > 0:08:13That may be starting to change.
0:08:17 > 0:08:20Nice to see you. Hi, Isabella. Hi, chaps. How's it going?
0:08:20 > 0:08:22Hi, Martin. Nice to see you.
0:08:22 > 0:08:25Tim Martin is the founder of Wetherspoons pubs,
0:08:25 > 0:08:28and he campaigned for Britain to leave the EU.
0:08:30 > 0:08:33- Where are you from, Isabella? - From Spain.
0:08:33 > 0:08:34From Spain?
0:08:36 > 0:08:38I expect you moved here cos it's a better climate!
0:08:38 > 0:08:40- No! - TIM LAUGHS
0:08:42 > 0:08:49I think some people have got used to easy access to employees
0:08:49 > 0:08:50and it hasn't always been like that, so...
0:08:50 > 0:08:54Do you think it's maybe a kick up the butt for some bosses
0:08:54 > 0:08:59who found it pretty easy just to get the young East Europeans,
0:08:59 > 0:09:03without having to make much of an effort to recruit people back home?
0:09:03 > 0:09:05I don't like to say it's a kick up the butt,
0:09:05 > 0:09:08because it's damn difficult running a small business
0:09:08 > 0:09:11if there's a change, a sea change in the economy -
0:09:11 > 0:09:13but if you're going to trade in the long-run,
0:09:13 > 0:09:16you've got to find a way of dealing with these issues,
0:09:16 > 0:09:17and it's not easy.
0:09:20 > 0:09:23Food manufacturing is big business.
0:09:23 > 0:09:2530% of its workers are from the EU.
0:09:25 > 0:09:29Back in 2004, it was just 2%.
0:09:32 > 0:09:37Patrick Hook runs a hatchery turning eggs into chicks.
0:09:37 > 0:09:42The business hatches 9 million chicks a week,
0:09:42 > 0:09:45but struggles to find the workers it needs.
0:09:45 > 0:09:48Now, I don't want to spoil your chicken dinner
0:09:48 > 0:09:50but this is where it might have begun.
0:09:51 > 0:09:53Wow, look at that. Hello.
0:09:54 > 0:09:57Here, at the moment, we have about five or six vacancies,
0:09:57 > 0:09:59but as a business we have about 50-60 vacancies
0:09:59 > 0:10:01across the UK that we cannot fulfil.
0:10:01 > 0:10:03Isn't the truth that you're just going to
0:10:03 > 0:10:04have to put your wages up a bit?
0:10:04 > 0:10:06You may have to have more apprenticeship schemes,
0:10:06 > 0:10:08but you would, in the end, get the workers.
0:10:08 > 0:10:11We pay above the National Minimum and National Living Wage
0:10:11 > 0:10:13and we still can't get the people.
0:10:13 > 0:10:15Even if we have to put wages up,
0:10:15 > 0:10:17which I think we'll have to, it's the reality,
0:10:17 > 0:10:20I still don't think that will attract domestic UK labour.
0:10:20 > 0:10:23How serious, then, is it as a crisis for your business?
0:10:23 > 0:10:27The labour crisis and not having those skilled permanent people
0:10:27 > 0:10:31available to us from the European Union is a bigger threat to us
0:10:31 > 0:10:33as a business and our industry
0:10:33 > 0:10:36and it's bigger than avian influenza, that is a fact.
0:10:36 > 0:10:39Avian flu is less of a threat to this industry
0:10:39 > 0:10:41than getting the immigration rules wrong?
0:10:41 > 0:10:43Absolutely.
0:10:43 > 0:10:46Those rules, remember, haven't changed yet -
0:10:46 > 0:10:48and business don't want them to.
0:10:48 > 0:10:50Theresa May must decide whether to back down,
0:10:50 > 0:10:52or tell them that, after Brexit,
0:10:52 > 0:10:55they'll need to find workers here.
0:10:57 > 0:10:59There are eight million people in this country
0:10:59 > 0:11:01who are classified as economically inactive,
0:11:01 > 0:11:04two million of whom would like to be economically active.
0:11:04 > 0:11:06There is a pretty big pool of people who they could train.
0:11:06 > 0:11:09Of course, business wants to carry on what it's being doing,
0:11:09 > 0:11:11because it's easy, but the responsibility
0:11:11 > 0:11:14of government is to look after the consumer and the citizen.
0:11:19 > 0:11:22The Prime Minster's big Brexit speech last Friday
0:11:22 > 0:11:25promised, once again, to control immigration.
0:11:25 > 0:11:27We are clear that, as we leave the EU,
0:11:27 > 0:11:30free movement of people will come to an end
0:11:30 > 0:11:32and we will control the number of people
0:11:32 > 0:11:34who come to live in our country.
0:11:39 > 0:11:44That's what Mansfield voted for, not just in the referendum
0:11:44 > 0:11:47but at the general election, too.
0:11:47 > 0:11:51Once a mining town, always Labour, it voted for a Tory MP
0:11:51 > 0:11:55for the first time in its history last June.
0:11:56 > 0:11:58Particularly with immigration, I think,
0:11:58 > 0:12:00people want to see control, is the key word.
0:12:00 > 0:12:04That "taking back control" message was a really powerful thing here,
0:12:04 > 0:12:06in an area that, economically,
0:12:06 > 0:12:08has kind of been forgotten for a long time,
0:12:08 > 0:12:11through decades since the pit closures
0:12:11 > 0:12:14and all the community and the economy that was built around that.
0:12:14 > 0:12:18People feel a bit forgotten by politics up there.
0:12:21 > 0:12:23The number of people living in this town
0:12:23 > 0:12:26who were born abroad isn't particularly high -
0:12:26 > 0:12:28but Mansfield's been changing fast.
0:12:28 > 0:12:31The number's tripled in just 10 years.
0:12:33 > 0:12:38I'll walk down every morning to this coffee bar - not being racist -
0:12:38 > 0:12:43I can probably meet, or pass, 15 people...
0:12:45 > 0:12:47..and sometimes you don't hear an English voice,
0:12:47 > 0:12:51and then you think, what on earth's wrong with Mansfield?
0:12:51 > 0:12:55And there's too many people from other countries living here
0:12:55 > 0:12:56and living off us.
0:12:59 > 0:13:01Yes, I believe in immigration, definitely.
0:13:01 > 0:13:04We've always wanted people in from other countries to do
0:13:04 > 0:13:07the skilled work, the labourers, because we've never had enough
0:13:07 > 0:13:09since the '40s, we haven't.
0:13:09 > 0:13:12So I've no problem with that, no problem.
0:13:12 > 0:13:15I'd just like to have a bit more screening when they come in.
0:13:15 > 0:13:17I think Mansfield probably, historically,
0:13:17 > 0:13:21isn't used to a lot of immigration, you know, on that side.
0:13:21 > 0:13:24So to have quite a heavy influx of people suddenly coming
0:13:24 > 0:13:27quite quickly, within two or three years, people notice that
0:13:27 > 0:13:30and certain people obviously feel uncomfortable about it.
0:13:32 > 0:13:34It was a beautiful town in the '60s, '70s,
0:13:34 > 0:13:36and now there's nothing left.
0:13:36 > 0:13:39So did you vote for a Tory MP to cut immigration?
0:13:39 > 0:13:43I did, and to come out, to Brexit. I voted for that, as well. Yeah.
0:13:48 > 0:13:50Talking about cutting immigration
0:13:50 > 0:13:54and actually delivering it are very different.
0:13:54 > 0:13:56It involves hard choices
0:13:56 > 0:13:59and stopping business hiring who they want.
0:14:00 > 0:14:02For eight years, the Tories have had a target
0:14:02 > 0:14:06to bring net migration down to under 100,000.
0:14:06 > 0:14:09It is still well over double that.
0:14:13 > 0:14:16The last two sets of statistics that we've seen
0:14:16 > 0:14:18have seen the direction of travel downwards,
0:14:18 > 0:14:19which is what we're aiming towards.
0:14:19 > 0:14:21But none of us have ever said
0:14:21 > 0:14:23that this going to be either easy, or quick.
0:14:23 > 0:14:26You do control the rules for people outside Europe...
0:14:28 > 0:14:31..and even if nobody came from Europe you'd be missing your target.
0:14:31 > 0:14:35So either the target is nonsense, or the rules are no good. Which is it?
0:14:35 > 0:14:39We have certainly borne down on immigration
0:14:39 > 0:14:42and we're determined to keep our commitment to the British public
0:14:42 > 0:14:46and make sure that we return immigration to sustainable levels.
0:14:47 > 0:14:50The target is completely bogus.
0:14:50 > 0:14:54It's never been reached, it never can be reached.
0:14:54 > 0:14:59It's just a way of the Tories talking an anti-immigrant narrative.
0:14:59 > 0:15:02Is it possible, though, under Labour's immigration policy
0:15:02 > 0:15:04that immigration might go up?
0:15:04 > 0:15:08We can't say what is going to happen to levels of migration
0:15:08 > 0:15:12because migration flows are subject to
0:15:12 > 0:15:15all sorts of international pressures.
0:15:15 > 0:15:16But immigration could go up then?
0:15:16 > 0:15:20With increased emphasis on training and skills,
0:15:20 > 0:15:24the need for people's specific skills from overseas
0:15:24 > 0:15:25may well decline.
0:15:28 > 0:15:32Scotland needs more immigration says her First Minister -
0:15:32 > 0:15:34not a target to have less.
0:15:36 > 0:15:39It's damaging and counter productive.
0:15:39 > 0:15:44It runs against the needs of the UK economy but even more so,
0:15:44 > 0:15:46given our different demographics,
0:15:46 > 0:15:50it runs counter to the needs of the Scottish economy.
0:15:50 > 0:15:53Our pensioner population over the next 25 years
0:15:53 > 0:15:56is projected to increase by 25%.
0:15:57 > 0:16:00The proportion over 75 years old is projected to increase
0:16:00 > 0:16:04by almost 80% and, yet, our working age population,
0:16:04 > 0:16:07those who are in employment and contributing the taxes
0:16:07 > 0:16:10to support everything else that we hold dear
0:16:10 > 0:16:12is only going to increase by 1%,
0:16:12 > 0:16:13so that tells a story
0:16:13 > 0:16:17that we need to be able to attract talent from elsewhere.
0:16:17 > 0:16:19I think, apart from the Prime Minister,
0:16:19 > 0:16:22it's quite hard to find anyone who thinks that the target,
0:16:22 > 0:16:24as it currently operates,
0:16:24 > 0:16:27is a useful contribution to policy at all.
0:16:27 > 0:16:28- Or can be met?- Or can be met.
0:16:33 > 0:16:37It's easy for ministers to promise voters what they want to hear,
0:16:37 > 0:16:39but business leaders are pleading with them
0:16:39 > 0:16:43to drop their immigration target and to simplify the rules.
0:16:43 > 0:16:46They're meant to ensure that the best and the brightest
0:16:46 > 0:16:50can come here from the rest of the world, outside Europe,
0:16:50 > 0:16:54people with skills, people earning around £30,000 a year -
0:16:54 > 0:16:58but bosses often complain that's not how they work in practice,
0:16:58 > 0:17:02and they're struggling to get the workers that they really need.
0:17:05 > 0:17:08You might expect those rules to work for the company
0:17:08 > 0:17:10that makes James Bond's favourite car.
0:17:12 > 0:17:15Not many people know what DB stands for,
0:17:15 > 0:17:16but obviously it's David Brown,
0:17:16 > 0:17:18who owned the company for quite a long time.
0:17:24 > 0:17:27This is the production line for the DB11
0:17:27 > 0:17:30Aston Martin's latest luxury model.
0:17:30 > 0:17:34The company's expanding fast it's about to open another factory -
0:17:34 > 0:17:37and it's a British export success story...
0:17:37 > 0:17:41..but they've got 400 vacancies they can't fill here,
0:17:41 > 0:17:44mainly in highly skilled engineering jobs.
0:17:47 > 0:17:51To people who say, let's have, after Brexit,
0:17:51 > 0:17:53the same immigration system
0:17:53 > 0:17:58that we have for people from outside Europe, what do you say?
0:17:58 > 0:18:01That would be a bit of a nightmare, to be frank.
0:18:02 > 0:18:06We needed someone to take care of electronic quality.
0:18:06 > 0:18:09The best person I know in the business is a Japanese guy -
0:18:09 > 0:18:12and it took me 13 months to bring him
0:18:12 > 0:18:15through the hurdles of getting him here and getting him a work permit.
0:18:15 > 0:18:18So more than a year after you identified
0:18:18 > 0:18:22- a specific individual before they could come and work here.- Yes.
0:18:22 > 0:18:25For people who might be watching and saying, "So what?"
0:18:25 > 0:18:27We don't want immigrants to come here
0:18:27 > 0:18:29and do jobs that can be done for Britons.
0:18:29 > 0:18:30What does it mean for them?
0:18:30 > 0:18:33What you end up doing is you end up losing jobs
0:18:33 > 0:18:35and that means you end up losing British jobs
0:18:35 > 0:18:37because, as you become less and less competitive,
0:18:37 > 0:18:41eventually that, in the relatively short term, that means that
0:18:41 > 0:18:43people on the production lines are getting laid off.
0:18:52 > 0:18:55Big business is certainly making a big noise
0:18:55 > 0:18:58about the need to get the workers they want
0:18:58 > 0:19:00from wherever they can find them.
0:19:02 > 0:19:05Their argument is that it'll make us all richer...
0:19:08 > 0:19:11..but ministers have promises to try to keep,
0:19:11 > 0:19:13and they cap the number of skilled workers who can come here...
0:19:15 > 0:19:18..and that can have unexpected consequences
0:19:18 > 0:19:20not least in the NHS.
0:19:28 > 0:19:30The Queen Elizabeth Hospital in Birmingham
0:19:30 > 0:19:33is one of the biggest hospitals in the country.
0:19:35 > 0:19:39One in 10 doctors here and in the NHS as a whole are from the EU.
0:19:40 > 0:19:44After the referendum, there were a fears they'd head home.
0:19:45 > 0:19:48- It looks like we arrived right in the nick of time, actually.- Yes!
0:19:48 > 0:19:52Yeah, I've increased the infusion rate again,
0:19:52 > 0:19:55- and she was bed 18, wasn't it? - Bed 18, yeah...
0:19:55 > 0:20:00Andrea Carneiro is a consultant anaesthetist from Portugal.
0:20:00 > 0:20:05- Five an hour is just not enough. - He's staying. For now.
0:20:05 > 0:20:07- VOICEOVER:- I expected better from Britain, if I'm honest.
0:20:07 > 0:20:10I believe passionately in the NHS.
0:20:10 > 0:20:12I like the fact that I can do a good job here
0:20:12 > 0:20:16because the system allows me to, and in return I work hard.
0:20:16 > 0:20:20If you spoke to friends or family in Portugal, would you say,
0:20:20 > 0:20:23"Yes come and join me in the NHS," or would you say,
0:20:23 > 0:20:24"Well, I wouldn't if I were you"?
0:20:24 > 0:20:29I would say, erm, clinically and from a professional perspective
0:20:29 > 0:20:32it's great working here but don't do it just yet.
0:20:34 > 0:20:36Because, big uncertainty.
0:20:36 > 0:20:38There's no point in jumping in to something
0:20:38 > 0:20:40that's still up in the air.
0:20:45 > 0:20:47That's what the stats do show.
0:20:47 > 0:20:51Many like Andrea ARE staying but the proportion of NHS staff
0:20:51 > 0:20:54coming from the EU is now falling.
0:20:54 > 0:20:57This at a time when the health service
0:20:57 > 0:21:01has 100,000 vacancies, and under current immigration rules,
0:21:01 > 0:21:06is often stopped from filling them from the rest of the world.
0:21:06 > 0:21:08A national cap on the number of skilled workers
0:21:08 > 0:21:11who can come here means this hospital has been blocked
0:21:11 > 0:21:15from bringing in doctors it badly wants.
0:21:15 > 0:21:18We've got vacancies for doctors at the moment.
0:21:18 > 0:21:21We found people abroad who meet the criteria that we want to employ
0:21:21 > 0:21:23but they've come up against the ceiling,
0:21:23 > 0:21:25so were not allowed to bring them in -
0:21:25 > 0:21:28and we can't bring anyone in now to this hospital until April.
0:21:28 > 0:21:32So, quite simply, doctors you wanted,
0:21:32 > 0:21:35doctors who wanted to come here, but they weren't allowed to come?
0:21:35 > 0:21:38Couldn't come. When I haven't got the staff to look after patients,
0:21:38 > 0:21:40we find staff who want to come here,
0:21:40 > 0:21:41who've got the skills and the requirements
0:21:41 > 0:21:43and then they're turned down because of a cap,
0:21:43 > 0:21:45then it's more than irritating.
0:21:48 > 0:21:50That's a disgraceful situation.
0:21:50 > 0:21:55People depend on the NHS, and because of politics, really,
0:21:55 > 0:21:58and pandering to anti-immigrant sentiment,
0:21:58 > 0:22:01the government is putting the NHS at risk.
0:22:01 > 0:22:07Some NHS doctors and all nurses aren't subject to a cap.
0:22:07 > 0:22:10They're treated as what's called a shortage occupation.
0:22:12 > 0:22:15We know that no shortage occupation is turned away.
0:22:15 > 0:22:18Ministers again and again say we want the best
0:22:18 > 0:22:20and the brightest to come.
0:22:20 > 0:22:23In the NHS, the best and the brightest can't come,
0:22:23 > 0:22:25because the system says the number of visas are capped,
0:22:25 > 0:22:27they're not able to get here.
0:22:27 > 0:22:31Our visa system is very rigorous and making sure that within the cap,
0:22:31 > 0:22:34we have the most skilled -
0:22:34 > 0:22:37and I'm conscious, as the Minister,
0:22:37 > 0:22:39you have to get the right balance,
0:22:39 > 0:22:42but we are determined to listen to all sectors of the economy
0:22:42 > 0:22:44and work within the system we already have.
0:22:48 > 0:22:51Under current immigration rules,
0:22:51 > 0:22:53there are all sorts of jobs which employers
0:22:53 > 0:22:58want to fill that they can't fill with people from outside the EU.
0:22:58 > 0:23:02People who are not deemed to be the best or the brightest,
0:23:02 > 0:23:06people like the poor old lorry drivers, or the care workers,
0:23:06 > 0:23:08or the bricklayers, or the chefs
0:23:08 > 0:23:11and the people who serve us in restaurants.
0:23:11 > 0:23:16So, after Brexit, who will do those jobs?
0:23:26 > 0:23:31Hi! Chicken wrap? would you like to eat here or take it away?
0:23:31 > 0:23:34Leon serves upmarket fast food.
0:23:34 > 0:23:37Half its 1,000 staff are from the EU.
0:23:39 > 0:23:41From what I've experienced so far,
0:23:41 > 0:23:44it's a very nice country to be in, especially London.
0:23:44 > 0:23:48I'm not sure about around London but London is just very vibrant
0:23:48 > 0:23:51and young and multicultural, so there's a lot to do here,
0:23:51 > 0:23:54and I definitely want to stay after that, I think.
0:23:56 > 0:23:59The boss says that his business couldn't thrive
0:23:59 > 0:24:02if only immigrants with high skills are let in to Britain.
0:24:05 > 0:24:09It's very easy to say, "Let's just take the scientists,
0:24:09 > 0:24:12"let's just take the people with PhDs,
0:24:12 > 0:24:15"because surely they can add value to us."
0:24:15 > 0:24:17The reality is, the people who really add value
0:24:17 > 0:24:19as well are the 18 to 25-year-olds that have the youth,
0:24:19 > 0:24:22the energy, the drive, the vigour, the creativity, the verve,
0:24:22 > 0:24:25who come to places like Leon.
0:24:25 > 0:24:29We need those people, as well, and they are, we need a constant supply.
0:24:30 > 0:24:31Thank you!
0:24:33 > 0:24:34What, John, is the alternative,
0:24:34 > 0:24:37if you can't get the staff that you need in these restaurants?
0:24:37 > 0:24:40There's a danger that if we can't recruit people,
0:24:40 > 0:24:42and we've already seen it in America, that people will be
0:24:42 > 0:24:46replaced by robots, and that's not something we want to see.
0:24:46 > 0:24:48It's not good for the culture, it's not good for the customer -
0:24:48 > 0:24:52but that is the way the industry will go if we cannot employ people.
0:24:54 > 0:24:57If you go online and actually look at the technology,
0:24:57 > 0:25:00I think there's a film about robots even making spaghetti bolognese.
0:25:02 > 0:25:04The robots are coming -
0:25:04 > 0:25:07but let's make sure we don't accelerate ourselves
0:25:07 > 0:25:09to a world where robots are the future.
0:25:10 > 0:25:13ROBOT BEEPS
0:25:13 > 0:25:16I don't think we should be frightened of mechanisation,
0:25:16 > 0:25:19and I don't know what type of sandwich you like,
0:25:19 > 0:25:21but you will get exactly the sandwich you want
0:25:21 > 0:25:24without any variation if it's made by machines.
0:25:24 > 0:25:28But wouldn't some people who voted to leave along with you
0:25:28 > 0:25:32say, "I did it because I wanted jobs for my children
0:25:32 > 0:25:34"and jobs for my grandchildren"?
0:25:34 > 0:25:37Those jobs will go to robots whether we have immigration or not.
0:25:37 > 0:25:40That immigration is not the issue around technological development -
0:25:40 > 0:25:43technological development, artificial intelligence,
0:25:43 > 0:25:47mechanisation is all happening, and that will carry on.
0:25:48 > 0:25:52Investing in more robots, more intelligent machines,
0:25:52 > 0:25:55may be one answer if businesses find it harder
0:25:55 > 0:25:57to hire cheap workers from abroad.
0:25:57 > 0:26:02Training more Brits, paying them more, could be another.
0:26:02 > 0:26:05Both, though, take time and money.
0:26:09 > 0:26:12What we do about immigration after Brexit
0:26:12 > 0:26:16raises huge questions which aren't being answered now.
0:26:16 > 0:26:20Some are keen to kick-start that debate.
0:26:22 > 0:26:24I know how difficult it is, often,
0:26:24 > 0:26:28for politicians to make a pro-migration argument,
0:26:28 > 0:26:32because there are concerns out there that require to be addressed
0:26:32 > 0:26:35but it is so important that politicians do have the courage
0:26:35 > 0:26:36to make that argument,
0:26:36 > 0:26:39because failure to do so will mean that the next generation
0:26:39 > 0:26:42is living with the consequences for a long time to come.
0:26:45 > 0:26:49There are trade-offs. There are genuine economic consequences,
0:26:49 > 0:26:51as well as social implications,
0:26:51 > 0:26:53and I think now that people are beginning to realise
0:26:53 > 0:26:57that maybe we will finally begin to have that debate.
0:26:58 > 0:27:01Do you think there's a chance for the country to have a debate
0:27:01 > 0:27:05- it hasn't before?- I think there's more than a chance. It'll happen.
0:27:05 > 0:27:09It's happening now, in a way - and that's a great thing.
0:27:09 > 0:27:12Debate always produces better answers
0:27:12 > 0:27:14than someone in an ivory tower.
0:27:15 > 0:27:18Do you think it's time the public were let in on the debate
0:27:18 > 0:27:20about our future immigration policy?
0:27:20 > 0:27:23I think the public HAVE been let in on the debate.
0:27:23 > 0:27:26They expressed a clear view to us in the referendum of 2016,
0:27:26 > 0:27:29the general election of 2017 -
0:27:29 > 0:27:32but I would actually encourage them to keep learning more.
0:27:32 > 0:27:35The thing that's really struck me is that immigration
0:27:35 > 0:27:38is an incredibly complicated subject
0:27:38 > 0:27:40and too few people know enough about it.
0:27:40 > 0:27:45The question is simple. The answer, less so. Who should we let in?
0:27:46 > 0:27:51- You're a yes to all of these, are you?- Yeah!- Chefs?
0:27:51 > 0:27:54What about chefs, restaurants?
0:27:54 > 0:27:57No. We've got enough.
0:27:57 > 0:27:59Why does the job they do
0:27:59 > 0:28:01make them any better or worse as a person to like?
0:28:01 > 0:28:04We've got enough in this country unemployed
0:28:04 > 0:28:07without taking on more from abroad.
0:28:07 > 0:28:09- But often...- They're qualified.
0:28:09 > 0:28:12But often it's actually the people who come from abroad
0:28:12 > 0:28:14who do the jobs that we don't want to do.
0:28:14 > 0:28:17Well, that's down to this government, isn't it?
0:28:17 > 0:28:19To make 'em do it. Make 'em train.
0:28:19 > 0:28:23What's wrong with bringing in people from, say, Europe, to do those jobs?
0:28:23 > 0:28:26We've got enough, ducky. We've got enough.