0:00:25 > 0:00:32Hello. Welcome to a special Pawb a'i Farn from Scotland's largest city.
0:00:32 > 0:00:36In ten days' time Scotland will go to the polls
0:00:36 > 0:00:39and answer whether the country should be independent or not.
0:00:39 > 0:00:46It is an historic vote. It will also affect the rest of Britain.
0:00:48 > 0:00:52Over the next hour, we will discuss independence
0:00:52 > 0:00:57and the effect of the result on Scotland and Wales.
0:00:57 > 0:01:02We have a studio audience here at the striking BBC centre in Glasgow.
0:01:02 > 0:01:03Most people here have made up their minds
0:01:03 > 0:01:05but others are still undecided.
0:01:05 > 0:01:08I'm looking forward to hearing what they've got to say.
0:01:08 > 0:01:13And we have a panel. Two in favour of independence and two against.
0:01:13 > 0:01:15We have two people from Wales.
0:01:15 > 0:01:20Ceri Green, an engineer, and Dr Gwen Jones Edwards, a psychiatrist.
0:01:20 > 0:01:23And we have two Pawb A'i Farn favourites,
0:01:23 > 0:01:26who have travelled up from Wales, Labour's Baroness Eluned Morgan
0:01:26 > 0:01:31and singer and former Plaid Cymru president, Dafydd Iwan.
0:01:31 > 0:01:33Please offer them a warm welcome.
0:01:33 > 0:01:35APPLAUSE
0:01:43 > 0:01:45Two other things.
0:01:45 > 0:01:48We will have a special overnight programme on the 18th,
0:01:48 > 0:01:52bringing in all the live results through BBC Radio Cymru and S4C.
0:01:56 > 0:02:00You can also join in this evening on Twitter.
0:02:00 > 0:02:03The hashtag is #ReffAlban.
0:02:03 > 0:02:07We are ready to get going. I will be sitting down tonight.
0:02:07 > 0:02:10Let's get our first question in Glasgow from Caradog Roberts.
0:02:10 > 0:02:13Your question, please.
0:02:13 > 0:02:19Two opinion polls today suggest that the vote will be extremely close.
0:02:19 > 0:02:23As the facts are so complex, do the panellists agree
0:02:23 > 0:02:26that this will be an emotional vote,
0:02:26 > 0:02:29a vote of the heart rather than the head,
0:02:29 > 0:02:32on September 18th?
0:02:32 > 0:02:36Thanks, Caradog. A good question to start our debate.
0:02:36 > 0:02:41Two opinion polls today suggest that the vote will be extremely close.
0:02:41 > 0:02:44As the facts are so complex, says Caradog,
0:02:44 > 0:02:48do the panellists agree that this will be an emotional
0:02:48 > 0:02:51vote on September 18th? Can you start us off, Gwen?
0:02:51 > 0:02:57I do not agree, to be honest. The facts are complex.
0:02:57 > 0:03:02The people are very passionate and educated on this matter.
0:03:02 > 0:03:07Some people have relied on the newspapers.
0:03:07 > 0:03:11And if you rely on the newspapers, you will get different story,
0:03:11 > 0:03:14especially if you listen to the newspapers in England.
0:03:14 > 0:03:18I think the newspapers in Scotland are closer to the truth.
0:03:18 > 0:03:25It has got extremely close over the recent weeks. What has happened?
0:03:25 > 0:03:28We have seen these opinion polls today
0:03:28 > 0:03:31saying there are just two points in it.
0:03:31 > 0:03:34People are interested.
0:03:34 > 0:03:38Until recently, maybe they saw that this vote was sometime
0:03:38 > 0:03:45in the future but now it is in just a fortnight, less than a fortnight.
0:03:45 > 0:03:49Everyone is interested in this now.
0:03:49 > 0:03:54I think the second live TV debate where Alex Salmond did really well
0:03:54 > 0:03:57really turned things around.
0:03:57 > 0:04:01Even though some people didn't see it as a factual debate,
0:04:01 > 0:04:04I think it was a problem that Darling
0:04:04 > 0:04:07could not answer the important questions.
0:04:07 > 0:04:09That might have had an influence.
0:04:09 > 0:04:12What's happened to the No campaign, Ceri?
0:04:12 > 0:04:20Yes, the gap has closed over recent weeks.
0:04:20 > 0:04:26It's very complex. People are making their minds up.
0:04:26 > 0:04:32I think what will happen now is that people will start to get scared
0:04:32 > 0:04:36that it may be a Yes vote.
0:04:36 > 0:04:40They will start to wonder how much it will cost.
0:04:40 > 0:04:43That hasn't happened yet.
0:04:43 > 0:04:48Hasn't the No campaign been negative?
0:04:48 > 0:04:56Well, if you are asking people to vote No, it is bound to be negative.
0:04:56 > 0:04:59Maybe the question could have been,
0:04:59 > 0:05:03would you like to remain a part of Britain?
0:05:03 > 0:05:07Then we could be the Yes campaign.
0:05:07 > 0:05:15I think that people are starting to think of this as a possibility.
0:05:15 > 0:05:22And then they will start to think about what it will cost them.
0:05:22 > 0:05:26How it will affect families if we go down this route?
0:05:26 > 0:05:33We'll discuss that later. Dafydd, will this be an emotional vote?
0:05:33 > 0:05:35To an extent.
0:05:35 > 0:05:39But thank you for this opportunity to come up to Scotland.
0:05:39 > 0:05:43I have an idea in my heart, I will be telling my children
0:05:43 > 0:05:47and my children's children that I was there in Glasgow
0:05:47 > 0:05:54during the days leading up to the historic Yes vote in Scotland.
0:05:54 > 0:05:56- It could go the other way, of course.- No, I am convinced.
0:05:56 > 0:06:02What's going to turn this thing around is the motivation
0:06:02 > 0:06:04that people have to go out and vote Yes.
0:06:04 > 0:06:07They will take this opportunity to start a new,
0:06:07 > 0:06:10exciting chapter in the history of Scotland.
0:06:10 > 0:06:14I think this is a bigger incentive than,
0:06:14 > 0:06:18"I think I'll go and vote in favour of the status quo..."
0:06:18 > 0:06:21But there is uncertainty.
0:06:21 > 0:06:26Thousands of people have not made up their minds.
0:06:26 > 0:06:30There is uncertainty over the current situation.
0:06:30 > 0:06:36Hardly anyone in Scotland or Wales voted for this coalition.
0:06:36 > 0:06:41There is so much uncertainty over part-time jobs for our young people.
0:06:41 > 0:06:45There is uncertainty everywhere.
0:06:45 > 0:06:49What is important with this referendum is that it is
0:06:49 > 0:06:51an opportunity to do something different.
0:06:51 > 0:06:58- Is UKIP the answer? Or the referendum?- Thank you very much.
0:06:58 > 0:07:02Eluned Morgan. You have been campaigning today.
0:07:02 > 0:07:04What's your impression?
0:07:04 > 0:07:08I think there is a danger that it will be an emotional vote
0:07:08 > 0:07:11and people will wake up the following day and say,
0:07:11 > 0:07:13what happened there?
0:07:13 > 0:07:16What's wrong with an emotional vote?
0:07:16 > 0:07:20Let me tell you a story, Ireland in the 1990s,
0:07:20 > 0:07:24I went to a folk festival and Dafydd Iwan was performing.
0:07:24 > 0:07:27Everyone was stood on their feet. It was amazing.
0:07:27 > 0:07:29I thought, I do not believe a word this man says.
0:07:29 > 0:07:33So I sat down. The following day I was thinking,
0:07:33 > 0:07:36I'm sure a lot of people agreed with me
0:07:36 > 0:07:40but they went along with it, swept up in it.
0:07:40 > 0:07:46You cannot change your mind the following day. This is forever.
0:07:46 > 0:07:51People have to think about this sensibly and understand
0:07:51 > 0:07:58that what is important is that as part of Britain is social unity.
0:07:58 > 0:08:04We all pay into the best insurance policy in the world.
0:08:04 > 0:08:06It looks after you when you're ill,
0:08:06 > 0:08:11looks after you if you're unemployed and helps you when you're old.
0:08:11 > 0:08:15We will return to that point but the No vote has lost ground.
0:08:15 > 0:08:18The gap has closed 20 points in a month.
0:08:18 > 0:08:24The problem is that I think this emotion is taking over.
0:08:24 > 0:08:28I think what we will now see is what happened in Quebec,
0:08:28 > 0:08:30where it was very close.
0:08:30 > 0:08:33People looked over the precipice and thought,
0:08:33 > 0:08:36we do not want to go there.
0:08:36 > 0:08:41Do you think that Keir Hardie spoke with the mind or the heart?
0:08:41 > 0:08:46He was one of the first leaders of the Labour Party.
0:08:46 > 0:08:48He was Scottish and stood in Wales.
0:08:48 > 0:08:51He believed in independence for Scotland.
0:08:51 > 0:08:55That was not emotion, it was common sense and the heart together.
0:08:55 > 0:08:59- We live in different world. - Principles don't change, Eluned.
0:08:59 > 0:09:01Hang on. Things have changed.
0:09:01 > 0:09:04You disagree and go to the House of Lords.
0:09:04 > 0:09:09We live in a world right now where we need to work together
0:09:09 > 0:09:12and we must remember that you cannot take things from the state
0:09:12 > 0:09:15and expect them to pay for it.
0:09:15 > 0:09:18Capitalism is something that we have to live with.
0:09:18 > 0:09:20Thanks, Eluned, for now.
0:09:20 > 0:09:25Let's return to the audience. You've all got a lot to say.
0:09:25 > 0:09:29Caradog, you asked the question. Why are these facts too complex?
0:09:30 > 0:09:38They are complex. We need to look forward as regards the economy.
0:09:38 > 0:09:42But no-one knows what will happen.
0:09:42 > 0:09:45Economists are constantly arguing.
0:09:45 > 0:09:49We don't know either way. They are complex arguments.
0:09:49 > 0:09:52Would you accept what Eluned said,
0:09:52 > 0:09:54that an emotional vote could be dangerous?
0:09:58 > 0:10:03Possibly. But what other option is there?
0:10:03 > 0:10:06We have no choice.
0:10:06 > 0:10:10And in the back row. Catrin Huws Jones.
0:10:10 > 0:10:18The idea that Britain has the National Insurance.
0:10:18 > 0:10:21One of the biggest arguments in the referendum
0:10:21 > 0:10:25and what's got people mobilised is that National Insurance
0:10:25 > 0:10:28is so much stronger in Scotland.
0:10:28 > 0:10:34There's the concept behind the NHS and social care and universities,
0:10:34 > 0:10:38free student fees and free prescriptions.
0:10:38 > 0:10:43I think a lot of people who don't feel passionately in favour
0:10:43 > 0:10:46of an independent Scotland
0:10:46 > 0:10:49have been turned by the idea that we would be stronger
0:10:49 > 0:10:50as an independent country.
0:10:50 > 0:10:54I don't think it helps the Union argument,
0:10:54 > 0:10:58the idea that we have this National Insurance,
0:10:58 > 0:11:01when it's being dismantled by London.
0:11:01 > 0:11:03And you think that is what has
0:11:03 > 0:11:05attracted Labour voters in particular?
0:11:05 > 0:11:08Yes, certainly.
0:11:08 > 0:11:10Speaking to people my age,
0:11:10 > 0:11:14taking an interest in politics for the first time,
0:11:14 > 0:11:18it has been a fantastically interesting experience.
0:11:18 > 0:11:20- It's been a major talking point. - Thanks, Catrin.
0:11:20 > 0:11:24Keith Bowen. You are likely to vote no.
0:11:24 > 0:11:30Yes, the SNP is on fire but there is hardly a No campaign.
0:11:30 > 0:11:38If someone argues with the SNP or stands up to them,
0:11:38 > 0:11:42they come out with threats. Jim Murphy.
0:11:42 > 0:11:46It's a rent-a-mob. People have been following him and egging him.
0:11:46 > 0:11:54The head of Barrhead Travel has been charged. It's bitter.
0:11:54 > 0:11:59We've been saying that it's a passionate debate. Dafydd.
0:11:59 > 0:12:03To be fair, that's happened on both sides to some degree.
0:12:03 > 0:12:07The thing is, and I'm sure Gwen will agree,
0:12:07 > 0:12:10this has been a long campaign, it has been a thorough campaign
0:12:10 > 0:12:14and people have worked very hard to get people to the point
0:12:14 > 0:12:16where they have thought for themselves.
0:12:16 > 0:12:20Young people are desperate to go out and vote.
0:12:20 > 0:12:24They are talking about 80% or 90%. That is great for politics.
0:12:24 > 0:12:28Initially, the debates were held in English in London
0:12:28 > 0:12:31and broadcast on television.
0:12:32 > 0:12:34They were taking it easy.
0:12:34 > 0:12:38They were saying, don't leave us! We love you, Scotland!
0:12:38 > 0:12:42That is to say, I like Scotland! I like going there on holiday!
0:12:42 > 0:12:45Don't leave us! The people of Scotland are not leaving anybody.
0:12:45 > 0:12:48What is important is that we have a new partnership
0:12:48 > 0:12:52across the British Isles which will be fairer across the nations
0:12:52 > 0:12:53and the English regions
0:12:53 > 0:12:58which will provide a fairer outcome for everyone.
0:12:58 > 0:13:01Has it been a bitter debate?
0:13:01 > 0:13:04Are you worried about the standard of debate?
0:13:04 > 0:13:10Until a fortnight ago, no. Things have intensified.
0:13:10 > 0:13:17Where I come from, the majority are against.
0:13:17 > 0:13:22I don't come across as many people who are in favour.
0:13:22 > 0:13:26I would if I lived in Glasgow.
0:13:26 > 0:13:29Let's go back to the audience. Mike Evans.
0:13:29 > 0:13:33When I was growing up in the Gwendraeth Valley,
0:13:33 > 0:13:38it was very emotional to vote for Labour at that time.
0:13:38 > 0:13:46One of the differences between the time of Keir Hardie and now
0:13:46 > 0:13:49is that something like 100 countries
0:13:49 > 0:13:52have become independent during that time.
0:13:54 > 0:13:56Eluned Morgan. Gwen, first.
0:13:56 > 0:14:00Speaking about Jim Murphy, if you have seen Jim Murphy speak
0:14:00 > 0:14:03during this campaign, he is the rent-a-mob.
0:14:03 > 0:14:09- He is a loathsome man in the way he comes across.- Strong words.
0:14:09 > 0:14:14Yes. I have seen enough of him on YouTube.
0:14:14 > 0:14:16He attracts that kind of reaction.
0:14:16 > 0:14:20I think that is what he is trying to do.
0:14:20 > 0:14:24There are plenty of things going on on the other side as well.
0:14:24 > 0:14:26Speaking about this emotional vote,
0:14:26 > 0:14:30would Scotland be an important addition to the international stage?
0:14:30 > 0:14:32Would it matter on the international stage?
0:14:32 > 0:14:36Yes, because Scotland is cosmopolitan country,
0:14:36 > 0:14:40a creative country and it has so much to offer the world.
0:14:40 > 0:14:46Going back to National Insurance, it's not working in Scotland.
0:14:46 > 0:14:49You are here in Glasgow.
0:14:49 > 0:14:55One in four men in Glasgow will die before they are 65.
0:14:55 > 0:15:00- But will an independent Scotland make any difference?- Yes.- How?
0:15:00 > 0:15:04We know that the medical reason is not smoking or drinking,
0:15:04 > 0:15:07it is a lack of hope and a lack of choice.
0:15:08 > 0:15:11These people have no choice.
0:15:11 > 0:15:14We need to offer them something solid.
0:15:14 > 0:15:20Eluned, you can have the last word on this question.
0:15:20 > 0:15:22Scottish debt.
0:15:22 > 0:15:26Scotland has spent more than it has raised over the last 20 years.
0:15:26 > 0:15:29- You disagree? - Over the last 33 years,
0:15:29 > 0:15:31we have made more money in Scotland
0:15:31 > 0:15:35and given more to Westminster than we have received.
0:15:35 > 0:15:39Your figures are completely different to mine.
0:15:39 > 0:15:43If it is so expensive, why is London so eager to keep hold of it?
0:15:43 > 0:15:48Because we want to keep the United Kingdom.
0:15:48 > 0:15:51That's the emotional argument on our side.
0:15:51 > 0:15:54But you could say that to Latvia or Lithuania.
0:15:54 > 0:15:59Don't we want a different union between individual countries
0:15:59 > 0:16:02that work as partners?
0:16:02 > 0:16:07I think the United Kingdom is an old-fashioned notion.
0:16:07 > 0:16:09It has failed.
0:16:09 > 0:16:13Just a moment. I want to move on. You can end the discussion.
0:16:13 > 0:16:15I saw your hand was up, Einir McDonald.
0:16:15 > 0:16:21Eluned, you said that we are part of the UK's National Insurance,
0:16:21 > 0:16:25which includes the NHS,
0:16:25 > 0:16:29and now the government is trying to privatise the NHS.
0:16:31 > 0:16:33That is not what we want.
0:16:35 > 0:16:38That is why a lot of people are changing their minds to vote Yes.
0:16:38 > 0:16:41Let's move on.
0:16:41 > 0:16:44You'll get a chance to respond, Eluned.
0:16:44 > 0:16:50Let's get our second question. Rhian Noble Jones. Your question, please.
0:16:50 > 0:16:54Chancellor George Osborne has today promised more powers for Scotland
0:16:54 > 0:16:56if there is a No vote.
0:16:56 > 0:17:00The First Minister of Wales, Carwyn Jones,
0:17:00 > 0:17:03has said Wales would have the same powers.
0:17:03 > 0:17:08Whichever way it goes, what affect will it have on Wales and Britain?
0:17:08 > 0:17:11There we are. Thank you very much.
0:17:11 > 0:17:14We are here to discuss that question.
0:17:14 > 0:17:16The Chancellor has said Scotland will get more powers
0:17:16 > 0:17:19if the No vote wins and Carwyn Jones
0:17:19 > 0:17:23has said today that the same powers should be offered to Wales.
0:17:23 > 0:17:26Whatever the result, there is going to be an effect on Wales
0:17:26 > 0:17:27and the rest of the UK.
0:17:27 > 0:17:32- But what will it be, Eluded Morgan? - It's not going to be a positive one.
0:17:32 > 0:17:38I don't understand why Plaid Cymru is helping the Yes vote in Scotland
0:17:38 > 0:17:42because it is going to have negative affect on Wales.
0:17:42 > 0:17:46You would not expect them to support the No vote, let's be practical.
0:17:46 > 0:17:51I would have thought that Plaid Cymru would be more concerned
0:17:51 > 0:17:55about Wales than anything else and they are obviously not.
0:17:55 > 0:17:59We are clearly a lot better off in this situation.
0:17:59 > 0:18:02We are not calling for independence in Wales
0:18:02 > 0:18:06so we would continue to be part of what remains of Britain.
0:18:06 > 0:18:08You have got to remember,
0:18:08 > 0:18:14we would have 40 MPs in a Westminster of 550 English MPs.
0:18:14 > 0:18:16We are going to have smaller voice.
0:18:16 > 0:18:20The fact they are offering federalism,
0:18:20 > 0:18:23offering something new, more powers,
0:18:23 > 0:18:28I think that is good for Wales and I don't think Plaid Cymru
0:18:28 > 0:18:33should be here campaigning against it because it would damage Wales.
0:18:33 > 0:18:35That is a pretty clear argument.
0:18:35 > 0:18:40Independence in Scotland would damage Wales.
0:18:40 > 0:18:45A few weeks ago, Plaid Cymru put forward some amendments to the
0:18:45 > 0:18:48Wales Act in the House of Commons
0:18:48 > 0:18:51to have more borrowing powers to create jobs in Wales,
0:18:51 > 0:18:56to have powers over income tax and over natural resources in Wales.
0:18:56 > 0:18:59The Labour Party opposed all of those three options.
0:18:59 > 0:19:04Carwyn Jones has got a nerve to say we want the same powers as Scotland
0:19:04 > 0:19:07because he has opposed...
0:19:07 > 0:19:10Carwyn, I am very fond of him,
0:19:10 > 0:19:13he says the right things but he does not do the right things.
0:19:13 > 0:19:17At the moment, Labour, hand in hand with the Tories,
0:19:17 > 0:19:21is preventing more powers from coming to Wales.
0:19:21 > 0:19:26A Yes vote in Scotland will change politics in Wales
0:19:26 > 0:19:28and across Britain.
0:19:28 > 0:19:32But what about Eluned's idea that Wales will become an afterthought?
0:19:32 > 0:19:36That depends on the people of Wales.
0:19:36 > 0:19:41This is going to force us to stand on our feet and demand those powers.
0:19:41 > 0:19:46We need to demand equality, whether it's a No vote or a Yes vote.
0:19:46 > 0:19:51We need to draw confidence from what we see in Scotland.
0:19:51 > 0:19:55Are you concerned about the effect on Wales?
0:19:55 > 0:20:00They say they are going to come up with some kind of federal system,
0:20:00 > 0:20:02which will be interesting.
0:20:03 > 0:20:08But I would imagine things are going to change in Wales.
0:20:08 > 0:20:11It is a bit late, the day before the referendum!
0:20:13 > 0:20:21- Things change.- But as someone who is going to vote against,
0:20:21 > 0:20:25- don't you think they have just rushed that forward?- Not really.
0:20:25 > 0:20:28For some time, the three biggest parties have said there will be
0:20:28 > 0:20:32more powers given to Scotland if there is a No vote.
0:20:33 > 0:20:36But what happens then is that people want to know
0:20:36 > 0:20:39what kind of changes they will be.
0:20:39 > 0:20:44- Some kind of federalism, apparently. - Rhian, you asked the question.
0:20:45 > 0:20:47Are you concerned about this?
0:20:47 > 0:20:49I'm not sure.
0:20:49 > 0:20:51I would like to say yes in favour of Scotland
0:20:51 > 0:20:57but I am concerned about the effect it will have on Wales.
0:20:57 > 0:21:00Based on what? The kind of thing Eluned has just said?
0:21:00 > 0:21:07I think we will have a weaker Celtic voice in Westminster.
0:21:07 > 0:21:12Does anyone else want to contribute? Janet Davies.
0:21:12 > 0:21:17You're up from Wales for the night.
0:21:17 > 0:21:21If we have a federal system which works,
0:21:21 > 0:21:25why did David Cameron and George Osborne oppose
0:21:25 > 0:21:29posing the question about Devo Max or federalism on the voting card?
0:21:31 > 0:21:33Thanks for the question.
0:21:36 > 0:21:42Richard Owen? You're also up from Ceredigion for the night.
0:21:42 > 0:21:45As Dafydd said, a good result in Scotland
0:21:45 > 0:21:48would set an example for Wales.
0:21:48 > 0:21:51It is easy to say but Wales has a weak voice as it is,
0:21:51 > 0:21:53as Dafydd has demonstrated.
0:21:53 > 0:21:56If the Labour Party is in favour of these powers,
0:21:56 > 0:22:00why vote against them in the House of Commons?
0:22:00 > 0:22:03Why is this offer only coming now,
0:22:03 > 0:22:05after polls showing that the situation has closed?
0:22:05 > 0:22:10If they are so keen on powers, why not ask sooner?
0:22:10 > 0:22:13Thank you. Margaret Evans?
0:22:13 > 0:22:18At the moment, I have not decided which way to vote.
0:22:18 > 0:22:23But I would like to say, if people in Scotland vote yes,
0:22:23 > 0:22:26maybe it will give people in Wales confidence
0:22:26 > 0:22:31to see what they can achieve for themselves.
0:22:31 > 0:22:36At the moment, we do have a weaker voice,
0:22:36 > 0:22:38but if we had more confidence,
0:22:38 > 0:22:44we could get stronger and show what we want.
0:22:46 > 0:22:51- You think Wales would be inspired by a yes vote?- Yes.
0:22:51 > 0:22:55At the back.
0:22:55 > 0:22:58Are you concerned about Wales' future?
0:22:58 > 0:23:01Not Wales.
0:23:01 > 0:23:05I am worried about Wales, of course, but I think about Yorkshire
0:23:05 > 0:23:07and London.
0:23:07 > 0:23:12Does that mean federalism is going to be an advantage to them?
0:23:12 > 0:23:16Are we all going to be little pawns?
0:23:16 > 0:23:20I don't like the sound of it.
0:23:20 > 0:23:26I think Wales is too small, too weak,
0:23:26 > 0:23:34is not rich enough to have the same as Scotland.
0:23:42 > 0:23:46Eluded Morgan answers some of those points.
0:23:46 > 0:23:51What is good about this discussion is that we are finally having
0:23:51 > 0:23:54the discussion we should have been having a long time ago.
0:23:54 > 0:23:57London has taken far too many powers.
0:23:57 > 0:24:00Far too much is centralised in London
0:24:00 > 0:24:04and people have finally realised that.
0:24:04 > 0:24:08In terms of the discussion, this referendum is a good thing.
0:24:08 > 0:24:13But I do think that we are completely different to Scotland.
0:24:13 > 0:24:14We are a lot poorer.
0:24:14 > 0:24:20If you want to start having separate income tax, we would lose out.
0:24:20 > 0:24:25We do not raise enough income tax in our country.
0:24:25 > 0:24:32Only around 6,000 people in Wales pay the top level.
0:24:32 > 0:24:366,000!
0:24:36 > 0:24:42That is not the same as in Scotland. It is completely different.
0:24:42 > 0:24:47That is why this insurance policy, we have got to come together.
0:24:47 > 0:24:51We need an insurance policy with 60 million people share
0:24:51 > 0:24:55the burden rather than five million before in Scotland or 3 million
0:24:55 > 0:24:57people in Wales.
0:24:57 > 0:24:59But are we still stronger together if Scotland is independent?
0:24:59 > 0:25:02We would be because we are still financially
0:25:02 > 0:25:07reliant on people in England and Scotland helping us.
0:25:07 > 0:25:10We started the Industrial Revolution,
0:25:10 > 0:25:15we have brought our share of wealth,
0:25:15 > 0:25:20but at the moment the economy in Wales needs
0:25:20 > 0:25:22to grow a lot stronger before we even start talking
0:25:22 > 0:25:24about independence.
0:25:24 > 0:25:29A million people in Scotland live in poverty
0:25:29 > 0:25:35and 100,000 children are in poverty.
0:25:35 > 0:25:39But is that down to the UK Government?
0:25:39 > 0:25:43Is there any evidence that it would change?
0:25:43 > 0:25:47The power over fracking was taken away from Hollyrood
0:25:47 > 0:25:54so it is going to happen in Scotland
0:25:54 > 0:26:03and many people are not going to be happy about that at all.
0:26:03 > 0:26:07Dafydd Iwan, on this point,
0:26:07 > 0:26:16is poverty in Scotland a bad reflection on the country?
0:26:27 > 0:26:28It should inspire you.
0:26:28 > 0:26:31No-one thought ten years ago we would have a
0:26:31 > 0:26:33referendum on independence now.
0:26:33 > 0:26:36It is an ongoing process.
0:26:36 > 0:26:40I am very disappointed to hear someone say Wales has
0:26:40 > 0:26:42contributed a little bit.
0:26:42 > 0:26:45Wales has been pillaged for its water,
0:26:45 > 0:26:51its coal and many other resources.
0:26:51 > 0:26:56It is time for us to realise that we have wealth.
0:26:56 > 0:27:04A victory in Scotland would inspire Wales for years to come.
0:27:06 > 0:27:08You have got to leave the House of Lords
0:27:08 > 0:27:11and come back to the people.
0:27:11 > 0:27:14This is important.
0:27:14 > 0:27:19This is inopportunity for us to scrap the House of Lords
0:27:19 > 0:27:24and have a federal system where if there representation.
0:27:24 > 0:27:32It's as important in England.
0:27:32 > 0:27:40I am going to stop you there. We must take a break.
0:28:02 > 0:28:07Welcome back to a special edition of Pawb a'i Farn.
0:28:07 > 0:28:12We are in Scotland discussing the Scottish referendum.
0:28:12 > 0:28:17We have had two questions, let's move on to the third question.
0:28:17 > 0:28:22The uncertainty over an independent Scotland's economic situation
0:28:22 > 0:28:24is a cause of concern for many.
0:28:24 > 0:28:30Should we be worried about our savings, our pensions and the pound?
0:28:30 > 0:28:32The uncertainty over
0:28:32 > 0:28:36an independent's Scotland's economic situation
0:28:36 > 0:28:39is a cause of concern for many.
0:28:39 > 0:28:42Should we be worried about our savings and pensions?
0:28:42 > 0:28:46This could be the crux of the matter for many people.
0:28:46 > 0:28:54It is all about the savings, our pensions and the pound?
0:28:54 > 0:28:59Money in your pocket. How do you respond to that question?
0:28:59 > 0:29:04Is this central to the economy?
0:29:04 > 0:29:10I think it will open a Pandora's box of uncertainty.
0:29:10 > 0:29:16The cost of interest rates will go up regularly.
0:29:16 > 0:29:21I think borrowing will become more expensive.
0:29:21 > 0:29:29Money is already going down to the south.
0:29:30 > 0:29:34There was an article in the Daily Mail today saying that
0:29:34 > 0:29:40pensions were going down to London from Scotland.
0:29:40 > 0:29:48I do not think that the economic figures being put
0:29:48 > 0:29:51forward by the SNP.
0:29:51 > 0:29:57You are convinced that Scotland will be poorer.
0:29:57 > 0:30:05People mention the North Sea oil and gas.
0:30:05 > 0:30:10But there is only so much remaining.
0:30:10 > 0:30:12There will be other costs.
0:30:12 > 0:30:20I think there will be less money available for things
0:30:20 > 0:30:25like social services, and so on.
0:30:25 > 0:30:28Is this the big important matter?
0:30:28 > 0:30:31I think so and people are worried about it
0:30:31 > 0:30:34but I don't agree with Ceri at all.
0:30:34 > 0:30:38Scotland is a rich country.
0:30:38 > 0:30:47We don't even have to come the North Sea oil and gas.
0:30:47 > 0:30:51And there is a lot of that remaining.
0:30:51 > 0:30:54That will sustain as for a long time.
0:30:54 > 0:31:00But you have been saying about poverty.
0:31:00 > 0:31:03Where is the evidence it is a rich country?
0:31:03 > 0:31:09It is a rich country because it makes a lot of money.
0:31:09 > 0:31:11All of the money goes to Westminster.
0:31:11 > 0:31:15We are given pocket money.
0:31:15 > 0:31:20Scotland receives more than Wales but it pays in more by a long way.
0:31:20 > 0:31:23Pensions will be safe.
0:31:23 > 0:31:31We know that public pensions in Scotland have run well.
0:31:33 > 0:31:35What about this concern
0:31:35 > 0:31:42that pensions will be going to the south-east.
0:31:42 > 0:31:47Big businesses deciding to go down to London.
0:31:47 > 0:31:50These companies will return.
0:31:50 > 0:31:58When people move their money down to the banks in England,
0:31:58 > 0:32:01it is the same bank really.
0:32:01 > 0:32:04If you invest your money in The Royal Bank of Scotland,
0:32:04 > 0:32:07most of it is NatWest.
0:32:07 > 0:32:14It did not go well for The Royal Bank of Scotland.
0:32:14 > 0:32:19Let's discuss the economy. How would you answer your own question?
0:32:19 > 0:32:23I think that uncertainty is the big thing.
0:32:23 > 0:32:32I do not think that all the facts are being put forward.
0:32:32 > 0:32:36The Yes vote does not convince me
0:32:36 > 0:32:44that things will be all right as regards pensions and savings.
0:32:44 > 0:32:48Are you worried about the future of the pound?
0:32:48 > 0:32:55It would be good if we knew for certain what would be happening.
0:32:55 > 0:33:00What about Margaret next to you?
0:33:00 > 0:33:04Are you worried about the economy?
0:33:04 > 0:33:10Yes, but I think that they cannot stop issuing the pound.
0:33:10 > 0:33:16The Westminster Government does not represent the people of Scotland.
0:33:16 > 0:33:26I think this is a great opportunity.
0:33:26 > 0:33:28Jack Williams?
0:33:28 > 0:33:32In principle, I am in favour of the idea of independence.
0:33:32 > 0:33:36But there is so much uncertainty
0:33:36 > 0:33:42and it makes very difficult to know which way to vote.
0:33:42 > 0:33:48There is a hand up in the back row.
0:33:48 > 0:33:55Where will they get the money?
0:33:55 > 0:33:58I would like to know and no-one can give me an answer,
0:34:00 > 0:34:04what about these children in poverty, where have they come from?
0:34:04 > 0:34:08If the money has been in Scotland, why hasn't anyone
0:34:08 > 0:34:10done anything about it sooner?
0:34:10 > 0:34:13Why are they in poverty right now?
0:34:13 > 0:34:17Because the money does not remain in Scotland.
0:34:17 > 0:34:21The money goes to Westminster and we are given money back.
0:34:21 > 0:34:23There is no way in Scotland
0:34:23 > 0:34:28because of the tax system to start up
0:34:28 > 0:34:33new jobs, new industry - the industry has gone.
0:34:33 > 0:34:36The ship-building industry has gone.
0:34:36 > 0:34:43They are talking about creating all these jobs,
0:34:43 > 0:34:48they will create all these jobs after the 18th of September.
0:34:48 > 0:34:52No, it will take time.
0:34:52 > 0:34:56It is not gone to be easy and it will take time.
0:34:56 > 0:34:58But at least we will have control.
0:34:58 > 0:35:04At the moment we do not have control.
0:35:04 > 0:35:07Can I just mention this uncertainty?
0:35:07 > 0:35:11It is getting on my nerves, to be honest.
0:35:11 > 0:35:15I have lived through the double dip and the recent credit crunch
0:35:15 > 0:35:20and I'm not that confident with the current system.
0:35:20 > 0:35:26It is laughable that we are talking about this uncertainty.
0:35:26 > 0:35:29The current system obviously does not work.
0:35:29 > 0:35:35Independence will shake things up.
0:35:35 > 0:35:39That is what needs to happen.
0:35:39 > 0:35:43And in the front row?
0:35:43 > 0:35:46I would like to say that we do not get the government that we
0:35:46 > 0:35:48vote for in Scotland.
0:35:48 > 0:35:52Maybe that is why it is such a mess.
0:35:52 > 0:35:58It is impossible to look into the future and predict it but in looking
0:35:58 > 0:36:02to the past, where has the money from the oil gone?
0:36:02 > 0:36:06We are talking about half a trillion.
0:36:06 > 0:36:08I'm talking about a trillion,
0:36:08 > 0:36:12the UK debt right now is over trillion.
0:36:12 > 0:36:15And the interest we are paying on this money is one million.
0:36:19 > 0:36:23We are paying that interest every week.
0:36:23 > 0:36:26We're in a terrible mess.
0:36:26 > 0:36:31We have no choice.
0:36:31 > 0:36:36I would say, there is nothing more uncertain than
0:36:36 > 0:36:43having your economy run from the capital of another country.
0:36:43 > 0:36:51The British economy is run for the benefit of a small part of England.
0:36:51 > 0:36:56Forget about pension rates and so on, there is
0:36:56 > 0:37:00nothing more uncertain than this situation.
0:37:00 > 0:37:08Where has all this money gone?
0:37:08 > 0:37:12It went to Westminster and Margaret Thatcher.
0:37:12 > 0:37:14It went towards keeping the country going.
0:37:14 > 0:37:21We have not used it as Norway has used their money.
0:37:21 > 0:37:23So Alex Salmond is right?
0:37:23 > 0:37:27No. It is different.
0:37:27 > 0:37:34Scotland has lost their ship-building industry.
0:37:34 > 0:37:37The Norwegians have done it.
0:37:37 > 0:37:41The unions in Scotland have killed it all.
0:37:41 > 0:37:44Eluned Morgan?
0:37:44 > 0:37:48Money is important to everyone.
0:37:48 > 0:37:55That is what decides whether you have jobs.
0:37:55 > 0:38:03800,000 jobs on the financial sector are in Scotland.
0:38:05 > 0:38:1295% of the people with savings in RBS for example live in England.
0:38:12 > 0:38:16I am certain this will happen.
0:38:16 > 0:38:22It needs to be where the customers are.
0:38:22 > 0:38:27They will want regulation from somewhere in England.
0:38:27 > 0:38:32So it is likely that those jobs will go.
0:38:32 > 0:38:36There will be fewer jobs.
0:38:36 > 0:38:39And it will affect Wales.
0:38:39 > 0:38:46I think that this will affect the financial markets tomorrow.
0:38:46 > 0:38:49No-one was expecting this to be quite so close.
0:38:49 > 0:38:54It could push us back into recession.
0:38:54 > 0:38:57As a prominent Welsh Labour member,
0:38:57 > 0:39:05are you happy with the attitude in Westminster regarding the pound?
0:39:05 > 0:39:10I don't want to provide another bailout,
0:39:10 > 0:39:15£46 billion we have paid to help RBS.
0:39:15 > 0:39:22If they are and independent country, I don't what to take that burden
0:39:22 > 0:39:25and have to make cuts in our hospitals.
0:39:25 > 0:39:31So your message is, they are not having the pound.
0:39:31 > 0:39:34They can use it but they won't have the right to influence
0:39:39 > 0:39:43the bank of England.
0:39:43 > 0:39:49The money to save these banks came from America.
0:39:49 > 0:39:54We are paying a price in Wales because of the mess the banks made.
0:39:54 > 0:39:58We have made cuts in our schools and hospitals.
0:39:58 > 0:40:02The audience has made the point very well.
0:40:02 > 0:40:04Where is the certainty now?
0:40:04 > 0:40:06How many people have lost their savings?
0:40:06 > 0:40:09How many people are seeing their parents'
0:40:09 > 0:40:13savings disappearing to pay for their care
0:40:13 > 0:40:20when they are elderly?
0:40:20 > 0:40:23The record of small countries in Europe...
0:40:23 > 0:40:26Like Iceland? They have done really well!
0:40:26 > 0:40:31The record of smaller countries is far better.
0:40:31 > 0:40:35Greece and Spain have struggled.
0:40:35 > 0:40:39If Catalonia was independent...
0:40:39 > 0:40:42There is no certainty.
0:40:42 > 0:40:47We need to focus on the needs of our people.
0:40:47 > 0:40:52We need to forget about spending millions on Trident.
0:40:52 > 0:40:56It is time for another break.
0:40:56 > 0:40:59Join us again in two minutes.
0:41:14 > 0:41:16Welcome back.
0:41:16 > 0:41:19It is nice to have your company for this special
0:41:19 > 0:41:21edition of the programme.
0:41:21 > 0:41:23We are discussing the referendum
0:41:23 > 0:41:28which is taking place on September 18.
0:41:28 > 0:41:31I think this will be our last question tonight.
0:41:31 > 0:41:36Richard Owen from Aberystwyth is campaigning for the Yes vote.
0:41:36 > 0:41:42Wouldn't independence for Scotland be an opportunity for Scotland
0:41:42 > 0:41:45and Britain to get rid of nuclear weapons?
0:41:45 > 0:41:50That is the question.
0:41:50 > 0:41:55I am going to start with you, Dafydd Iwan.
0:41:55 > 0:42:01One of the most important things that has happened during this debate,
0:42:01 > 0:42:04and it has been a long campaign,
0:42:04 > 0:42:07is that people have been drawn into the discussion.
0:42:07 > 0:42:09Young and old.
0:42:09 > 0:42:14They are discussing things we don't get an opportunity to discuss.
0:42:14 > 0:42:16Was there ever a discussion on Trident? No.
0:42:16 > 0:42:18It creates jobs so it is there.
0:42:18 > 0:42:28We are spending billions of pounds on keeping a weapons system,
0:42:28 > 0:42:32which if we did use them, would be the end of the world.
0:42:32 > 0:42:36It is crazy to base an economy on such dangerous weapons.
0:42:36 > 0:42:44We know there is a threat from these terrorists but Trident is no good.
0:42:46 > 0:42:51Wouldn't it be even more dangerous if we did not have Trident?
0:42:51 > 0:42:54It doesn't protect anyone from terrorism.
0:42:54 > 0:42:58The only good thing about this campaign is that people can
0:42:58 > 0:43:00have their say.
0:43:00 > 0:43:04On Twitter, you can see what ordinary people have to say.
0:43:04 > 0:43:11In an independent Scotland, you don't have to enter wars.
0:43:11 > 0:43:18We went into Iraq, killed thousands of people,
0:43:18 > 0:43:21and we did not believe in the campaign.
0:43:21 > 0:43:23We can avoid that in future.
0:43:23 > 0:43:26Independence would be worth it for that alone.
0:43:26 > 0:43:28We need to get rid of Trident
0:43:28 > 0:43:33and build an economy based on things that make sense.
0:43:33 > 0:43:38Ceri, you live pretty close to the centre were Trident is kept.
0:43:38 > 0:43:42This is of great importance to that area.
0:43:42 > 0:43:45In terms of jobs, yes.
0:43:45 > 0:43:49It is the jobs which provides the most industrial jobs
0:43:49 > 0:43:51anywhere in Scotland.
0:43:51 > 0:43:55It will be very important.
0:43:55 > 0:43:59But on the other hand, thinking about this idea,
0:43:59 > 0:44:04then say they want to be a member of NATO.
0:44:04 > 0:44:11A crucial part of NATO's strategy is to have Trident.
0:44:11 > 0:44:17I don't see why they want to be a member and want to have that
0:44:17 > 0:44:20umbrella which is provided by Trident
0:44:20 > 0:44:24and then to get rid of it.
0:44:24 > 0:44:28It is hypocritical.
0:44:28 > 0:44:33Being a member of a body like NATO enables you to
0:44:33 > 0:44:34influence their policies.
0:44:34 > 0:44:39The discussion over Trident has never been had.
0:44:39 > 0:44:42Have you ever had an opportunity to give an opinion on Trident?
0:44:42 > 0:44:46This is your opportunity.
0:44:46 > 0:44:50You are not going to get much enthusiasm out of me on Trident.
0:44:50 > 0:44:55Carwyn Jones said it should come to Milford Haven.
0:44:55 > 0:44:59You have got to realise that if you are an independent country,
0:44:59 > 0:45:04you need an army, a Navy,
0:45:04 > 0:45:07an air force.
0:45:07 > 0:45:10Alex Salmond has said that is going to happen. You need your own BBC.
0:45:10 > 0:45:15There will be major cuts in the BBC if 10% is cut
0:45:15 > 0:45:18because it is going to Scotland.
0:45:18 > 0:45:21It would not be the BBC.
0:45:21 > 0:45:24Let's stick to nuclear weapons.
0:45:24 > 0:45:27It's important because terrorism is a real problem.
0:45:28 > 0:45:30We have seen that in Cardiff.
0:45:30 > 0:45:33Some of the people who have gone to Syria are from Cardiff.
0:45:33 > 0:45:36Terrorism is a major problem and we have to make sure
0:45:36 > 0:45:41people do not come back and start attacking us on our own soil.
0:45:41 > 0:45:45- Is Trident going to stop them? - No, but...
0:45:45 > 0:45:49But wouldn't getting rid of Trident put this all-in danger?
0:45:52 > 0:45:55Not at all.
0:45:55 > 0:46:00The majority of countries which are part of NATO do not have
0:46:00 > 0:46:02something like Trident.
0:46:02 > 0:46:06I think Iceland and Greenland, for example.
0:46:06 > 0:46:11But in terms of defence,
0:46:11 > 0:46:14Trident does not defend as at all.
0:46:14 > 0:46:17It has had no effect on the wars
0:46:17 > 0:46:21in Iraq, Gaza, Afghanistan.
0:46:21 > 0:46:30And it does not create employment of substance.
0:46:30 > 0:46:34Only 500 workers work on the nuclear side of it.
0:46:34 > 0:46:37So you want to see those submarines moving to England or Wales?
0:46:37 > 0:46:39I want them to disappear.
0:46:39 > 0:46:45Every job costs £600,000 a year to maintain.
0:46:45 > 0:46:49You could pay people that much to do nothing.
0:46:49 > 0:46:51We don't have to build nuclear weapons.
0:46:53 > 0:46:56Richard, you asked the question.
0:46:56 > 0:47:01They are saying that weapons to replace Trident
0:47:01 > 0:47:05would cost £100 billion.
0:47:05 > 0:47:10After 15 years, it will be a lot more than that.
0:47:10 > 0:47:15They are very expensive.
0:47:15 > 0:47:17And you can't use them.
0:47:17 > 0:47:21Mike Evans, will you be voting to get rid of nuclear weapons?
0:47:21 > 0:47:23Not specifically.
0:47:23 > 0:47:30Turning to defence, one or two members of the panel have said
0:47:30 > 0:47:34that Scotland is too small to defend itself.
0:47:34 > 0:47:42How do Denmark, Norway and Finland, Belgium,
0:47:42 > 0:47:45Austria done it for so long?
0:47:45 > 0:47:51Most countries in the world are small.
0:47:51 > 0:47:54Some of them have problems, but the majority don't.
0:47:55 > 0:47:59What is the problem for Scotland because it is small?
0:47:59 > 0:48:05Why is defence going to be a problem? We have model in Denmark.
0:48:05 > 0:48:12Wouldn't Scotland be safer if it got rid of Trident?
0:48:12 > 0:48:14I'm going to move forward.
0:48:14 > 0:48:18I am going to ask you all to use your imagination.
0:48:18 > 0:48:21What will you be doing on the morning of the referendum,
0:48:21 > 0:48:2419th of September?
0:48:24 > 0:48:32Congratulating the people of Scotland for voting yes.
0:48:32 > 0:48:40A sigh of relief, thinking, that was close!
0:48:40 > 0:48:45I would sit down with the Labour team in Wales
0:48:45 > 0:48:47to make sure that Wales' voice will be strong
0:48:47 > 0:48:50when we discuss where we go next.
0:48:50 > 0:48:53I agree.
0:48:53 > 0:48:57I will be celebrating victory for common sense in Scotland
0:48:57 > 0:49:04and then planning for the future of Wales.
0:49:04 > 0:49:06Thank you. Remember our programme on September 18.
0:49:06 > 0:49:08For now, goodbye.