:00:00. > :00:00.What's the price of a referendum vote?
:00:00. > :00:10.Will a pay rise of ?1.34 an hour be enough to change some voters' minds?
:00:11. > :00:32.Tonight we ask who are the key voters and what do they want?
:00:33. > :00:34.Good evening and welcome to Scotland 2014.
:00:35. > :00:38.Forget Tony Blair's Mondeo Man and Bill Clinton's Soccer Moms,
:00:39. > :00:41.the referendum has created a new target for the politicians to chase.
:00:42. > :00:45.We're dipping into the world of Easterhouse man, and woman.
:00:46. > :00:48.The question is will a hike in the minimum wage
:00:49. > :00:57.and the prospect of higher benefits change the way they'll vote?
:00:58. > :01:00.Labour's Anas Sarwar and Patrick Harvie from the Greens.
:01:01. > :01:04.We've been on journey round Scotland to see how the disabled vote might
:01:05. > :01:14.And what was in the Queen's Speech for her Scottish subjects?
:01:15. > :01:17.Where are the voters who hold the key to September's referendum?
:01:18. > :01:19.That's the question we'll be asking tonight.
:01:20. > :01:22.From the so-called working poor to the disabled vote,
:01:23. > :01:25.how are the campaigns trying to slice and dice the electorate?
:01:26. > :01:29.Today, welfare experts have recommended the minimum wage should
:01:30. > :01:33.go up by more than ?1 an hour, as well as suggesting there should
:01:34. > :01:35.be substantial benefit increases in an independent Scotland.
:01:36. > :01:38.So are these the kind of giveaways that could tempt voters
:01:39. > :01:50.Julie Peacock has been trying to find out.
:01:51. > :02:04.Barry J yes or no Mac? It is not just ballot paper is painted in
:02:05. > :02:09.boxes, we are as well. There is a type of thought are the politicians
:02:10. > :02:18.are desperate to attract. Once it was Thatcher's Essex man and then
:02:19. > :02:25.came Mondeo Man. Now there is a new target. Who is it? For the sake of
:02:26. > :02:31.ardent, we will call him Easterhouse man or woman. People from
:02:32. > :02:40.working-class area is or lower incomes who lean to the left. The
:02:41. > :02:45.evidence suggests many are for independence. We found a direct link
:02:46. > :02:49.in all the polls we did between where you live and how likely you
:02:50. > :02:55.will vote yes or no. Those from the most deprived neighbourhoods are
:02:56. > :03:03.likely to vote yes and those in affluent areas, Nowak. SNP
:03:04. > :03:11.government has given its backing to a report which recommends an
:03:12. > :03:21.overhaul of the benefit system. It is eating considering raising the
:03:22. > :03:24.minimum wage. The message that says we can do things differently and
:03:25. > :03:29.better with independence has some appeal. It is about taking
:03:30. > :03:34.responsibility and saying we are the 14th richest country in the world
:03:35. > :03:38.but we have one of the biggest gaps between the richest and poorest in
:03:39. > :03:47.society. Where do we find our Easterhouse voter on a wet Wednesday
:03:48. > :03:52.afternoon? Despite the labels, not everyone here is convinced by the
:03:53. > :03:56.SNP's plans. It's all right to increase the minimum wage but when
:03:57. > :04:06.you can't get a job and what did is that? I want everything to stay the
:04:07. > :04:15.same way. I don't want to use your rules. They all say the same thing
:04:16. > :04:22.and then when they get end they all do the same. But others believe
:04:23. > :04:32.independence would be good for areas like Easterhouse and voters here
:04:33. > :04:40.could tip the balance. If you are among the working class, the yes
:04:41. > :04:50.vote. I just feel that. I have quite a number of friends who I have who
:04:51. > :04:58.are all working class, they are keener on a yes vote. Many minds
:04:59. > :05:03.have not been made up. You have to look at the pros and cons. It might
:05:04. > :05:10.be good to be ourselves but will things go downhill and prices go up
:05:11. > :06:20.and have more poverty? I don't know. They would need to talk me around.
:06:21. > :06:25.About how quickly deficit needed to be reduced. Those would be different
:06:26. > :06:29.positions the different political parties would put forward. We
:06:30. > :06:34.wouldn't be locked into the austerity model the UK Government is
:06:35. > :06:38.imposing on us. We would be able to make the decision towards moving
:06:39. > :06:42.towards an equal society. A fairer distribution of the wealth of this
:06:43. > :06:48.society, closing the gap between the richest and the rest. Which we saw
:06:49. > :06:53.grow wider over years of growth and recession in the UK. It must be
:06:54. > :06:57.difficult for you to listen to these promises being made on welfare and
:06:58. > :07:01.try and find a way to counter them when, inside the UK, the Labour
:07:02. > :07:05.Party have been completely unable to stop any of the benefit changes the
:07:06. > :07:09.coalition have brought in? No, far from. It you heard from Patrick's
:07:10. > :07:14.answer, they don't know the answer to the fact that the IFS report,
:07:15. > :07:19.this isn't a political organisation, this is neutral, nick experts saying
:07:20. > :07:24.to standstill after independents we would need to find ?6 billion of tax
:07:25. > :07:28.rises or spending cuts. ?1.2 billion more on top of that if you take the
:07:29. > :07:33.manifesto commitments from the SNP in the white paper. What I find
:07:34. > :07:36.uncomfortable from this, Patrick finds it uncomfortable about the
:07:37. > :07:40.case being made for independence, we are not being promised these massive
:07:41. > :07:45.tax rises for the wealthiest, we have been promised tax cuts for the
:07:46. > :07:50.wealthiest. Cut to corporation tax being a perfect example. The more
:07:51. > :07:55.appropriate approach is to pull our resources across the UK. Tax the
:07:56. > :08:00.bankers through the bankers bonus tax across the UK and use that to
:08:01. > :08:04.pay for our job guarantee scheme for young workers in Scotland and across
:08:05. > :08:09.the UK. That sounds like a fairer form of welfare to me than those
:08:10. > :08:13.proposed by the nationalist. Can you both increase spending and cut taxes
:08:14. > :08:21.in an independent Scotland and make the sums up? That is not the case I
:08:22. > :08:25.(inaudible) cutting corporation tax is a policy that was seen from UK
:08:26. > :08:30.Government after UK Government after UK Government. Whether it was
:08:31. > :08:34.Labour, Tory or now the Coalition. The SNP promising to cut further no
:08:35. > :08:37.matter how low it goes in the UK? I look forwarding to challenging that
:08:38. > :08:43.policy in an independent Scotland. I look forward to being on the same
:08:44. > :08:47.side of that argument as Anas Sarwar if Labour have ditched the idea of
:08:48. > :08:51.low corporation tax. The argument on welfare is really important here. I
:08:52. > :08:54.don't agree with every dot and comma in the Government's report on
:08:55. > :08:59.welfare in an independent Scotland. I do think it engauges postively
:09:00. > :09:05.with the purpose of welfare. The benefit system in the UK has a
:09:06. > :09:10.bandon the -- abandoned the purpose of human welfare. It is to bully
:09:11. > :09:16.people into low paid work and to subsidise low pay so that big
:09:17. > :09:21.employers can pay poverty wages that don't allow people to live with
:09:22. > :09:26.dignity. We need to rewin the argument for a welfare state where
:09:27. > :09:34.we look after all people where all people's dignity is important we
:09:35. > :09:38.don't use rhetoric that sets hard-working families against
:09:39. > :09:43.skivers in our country. Why would the Labour Party not say you would
:09:44. > :09:47.devolve welfare spending to the Holyrood parliament? I share his
:09:48. > :09:52.commitment and use the same language Patrick used in terms of how others
:09:53. > :09:56.tried to frame the debate around welfare. The challenge is not the UK
:09:57. > :10:00.attacking welfare, it's the Tories attacking welfare. Let us not
:10:01. > :10:03.pretend, those living in England, those living in Wales and Northern
:10:04. > :10:07.Ireland somehow are attacking our welfare state, they are not. It was
:10:08. > :10:12.the Labour Party who voted for the benefit cap alongside the Coalition?
:10:13. > :10:16.Let me finish. The reality is, polls this week have shown, by pulling and
:10:17. > :10:21.sharing our resource across the UK we can ensure we have the same level
:10:22. > :10:25.of pension right across the UK. The same level of benefits across the UK
:10:26. > :10:29.which the vast majority of people in Scotland, right across the UK, want
:10:30. > :10:32.to see. I agree with Patrick, let us make the case for the welfare state.
:10:33. > :10:36.Let us make the case for making sure we have the right support for people
:10:37. > :10:39.to get back into work. When it they are back in work they get the
:10:40. > :10:45.support they need to stay in work and be an asset to own community.
:10:46. > :10:48.The paper you saw today wasn't because they wanted to create better
:10:49. > :10:54.life opportunities for families across the country. Alex Salmond
:10:55. > :11:01.wants to make history. So why not devolve these powers to the Holyrood
:11:02. > :11:07.Government? You have been unable to alter the Coalition's policies from
:11:08. > :11:12.London - We want to devolve significant new welfare - Not very
:11:13. > :11:18.significant - Around housing benefit and attendance allowance. We don't
:11:19. > :11:23.want to devolve pensions because of that pulling and sharing resources
:11:24. > :11:30.argument. It's a strength a taxpayer in Aberdeen helps to support someone
:11:31. > :11:33.with disabilities in Cardiff. A country on the scale and size of the
:11:34. > :11:37.UK does have greater potential to pull and share resources. If I had
:11:38. > :11:41.seen that happening, over the last few decades, I might even have ended
:11:42. > :11:45.up on the other side of this independence debate. I have seen the
:11:46. > :11:48.opposite happening. I have seen this big country, with the potential to
:11:49. > :11:52.pull and share resources do the opposite. The gap between the
:11:53. > :11:56.richest and the rest grow ever wider. That is what I want to
:11:57. > :11:58.change. Scotland should take the opportunity to do it for itself. We
:11:59. > :12:07.have to leave it there. According to the last census, there
:12:08. > :12:10.are a million Scots with some sort of disability. That's one in five of
:12:11. > :12:15.us. So is there such a thing as a "disability vote" and how will it
:12:16. > :12:32.play out in September's referendum? around Scotland to find out what
:12:33. > :12:38.disabled people think about the referendum. There are 1 million
:12:39. > :12:45.disabled people in Scotland. It is the most accurate figure we have
:12:46. > :12:55.available since the last census. The first stop is Edinburgh, to meet
:12:56. > :13:01.Bill Scott from Inclusion Scotland. Do you think disabled people will
:13:02. > :13:06.have an impact? Undoubtedly. The positions are moving closer and
:13:07. > :13:12.closer so that 1 million people will be a huge battle ground for both
:13:13. > :13:23.campaigns. They are not a homogenous group. Most disabled people would
:13:24. > :13:28.not self identify as disabled. Next I travelled to Glasgow to meet Peter
:13:29. > :13:37.Scott who is the chief executive of Enable Scotland. They're not
:13:38. > :13:44.particularly interested in fluctuating oil revenues and EU
:13:45. > :13:49.membership, they want to know how it will impact their daily life. Issues
:13:50. > :13:55.around health care, social care and funding in the future and a whole
:13:56. > :13:58.host of issues which are not unique to the disabled population but are
:13:59. > :14:05.very important to them and they are not hearing answers yet. I travelled
:14:06. > :14:13.to the Glasgow Disability Alliance to find out if the campaign is
:14:14. > :14:16.engaging with disabled people. We have asked if people feel they're
:14:17. > :14:20.getting enough information and they understand the process and a few
:14:21. > :14:25.disabled people we spoken to have said they feel they are not
:14:26. > :14:30.necessarily being engaged. The general feedback is they are not
:14:31. > :14:36.necessarily getting the information they want or need, particularly in
:14:37. > :14:42.the mainstream environment that they may be able to get it from other
:14:43. > :15:34.disability sources or are cells but not the wider world.
:15:35. > :15:45.The disabled Scots may not be a homogenous group. Other disabled
:15:46. > :15:47.people I spoke to, many believe that leader campaign is doing enough to
:15:48. > :16:24.engage with when they talk about increasing
:16:25. > :16:28.benefits, is it a naked play? Certainly one can see how some
:16:29. > :16:37.claims made by both sides appeared to be designed to appeal to either
:16:38. > :16:44.the electorate where they're doing badly or doing well. The biggest
:16:45. > :16:50.weakness for the yes side is that their support is lower in women than
:16:51. > :16:57.men. They seem to try to counter that by making this signal policy
:16:58. > :17:04.offer. When the White Paper was launched, the promise of more
:17:05. > :17:09.childcare. It seemed to suggest that the yes side thought they needed to
:17:10. > :17:19.make something which appeals to women. The other side of the coin is
:17:20. > :17:25.it is pretty clear that people who are less well off are more likely to
:17:26. > :17:32.vote yes probably because they think they have less to lose and they are
:17:33. > :17:42.more optimistic about the economic consequences of independence. Maybe
:17:43. > :17:49.the SNP will be wanting to reinforce that support and improve their
:17:50. > :17:55.ability to ease into a demographic you would think would be more likely
:17:56. > :18:00.to vote Labour. It is no secret that places like Easterhouse are amongst
:18:01. > :18:10.those which the yes side have focused their canvassing activity in
:18:11. > :18:22.the belief that the are crucial to getting a victory.
:18:23. > :18:26.Who are 2014's important voters? You could be asking me who are the
:18:27. > :18:37.voters most likely to be undecided. Women, people with a dual sense of
:18:38. > :18:39.identity, and people whose most preferred outcome would be a
:18:40. > :18:48.stronger Scottish Parliament within the framework of the union. Those
:18:49. > :18:53.trips are most likely to be unsure. But if you want to identify which
:18:54. > :19:03.groups are more likely to be yes or no Mac, it is gender, class. And
:19:04. > :19:12.age. Voters over 60 are less likely to favour independence. The argument
:19:13. > :19:20.seems to be not so much to do with economics but the underlying issue
:19:21. > :19:35.of identity. Although the yes side are reluctant to admit it, identity
:19:36. > :19:36.as part of this. Some of the older people who can remember the British
:19:37. > :19:42.Empire are likely to not vote yes. Her Majesty got into a brand new
:19:43. > :19:45.gilded carriage today and headed off to Westminster to deliver the last
:19:46. > :19:48.Queen's speech of this parliament. She told us her Government intend to
:19:49. > :19:52.press ahead with major pensions reform, they will make fracking
:19:53. > :19:55.easier and find a way to recall badly behaved MPs. But what did the
:19:56. > :19:59.Queen have to say to her subjects north of the border? Our Westminster
:20:00. > :20:02.correspondent, Tim Reid, watched the speech and I asked him what was in
:20:03. > :20:12.it for Scotland. Make the case for Scotland to remain
:20:13. > :20:15.apart of the United Kingdom. Our Westminster correspondent Tim Reid
:20:16. > :20:18.watched the speech. I asked him what was in it for Scotland? Ministers
:20:19. > :20:22.would argue that the vast majority of the measures in the Queen's
:20:23. > :20:26.Speech do apply in some way, shape or form to Scotland. In fact, they
:20:27. > :20:30.say on this occasion nine out of the 11 new bills. As you mentioned the
:20:31. > :20:34.pensions reform is their flagship policy. People do away with
:20:35. > :20:40.annuities for people in their retirement, much more secure pension
:20:41. > :20:43.pots, say ministers. Also the marriage couple tax allowance and
:20:44. > :20:47.help for parents with childcare through the tax system as well. The
:20:48. > :20:52.help for businesses, smaller businesses in particular, but also
:20:53. > :20:56.those businesses which are flouting minimum wage rules. That will be
:20:57. > :21:03.tackled in the next year of the parliament. In terms of Scotland
:21:04. > :21:07.particularly, the North Sea gets (inaudible) because the Government
:21:08. > :21:10.wants to introduce the entire full recommendations of the Wood Report
:21:11. > :21:14.into the North Sea and trying to get the most out of the North Sea over
:21:15. > :21:19.the next 20 years. That will be introduced, making the industry pay
:21:20. > :21:24.for the regulatory body. That we are told by the Scottish Secretary will
:21:25. > :21:28.be introduced before the summer recess and before the referendum.
:21:29. > :21:34.The Queen said her Government would be working to make sure Scotland
:21:35. > :21:38.stays part of the United Kingdom. She doesn't write the speech, it
:21:39. > :21:42.sounds quite political? The important thing is, it is written by
:21:43. > :21:46.ministers. She simply reads it out. The UK Government has made it clear
:21:47. > :21:51.it wants Scotland to remain in the United Kingdom. It something of
:21:52. > :21:55.course the Scottish nationalists is stating a fact and the figurehead,
:21:56. > :21:59.Head of State in an independent Scotland. They of course say the
:22:00. > :22:03.Queen's Speech here has done nothing for the people of Scotland, only
:22:04. > :22:07.Scotland, with its own powers, will be able to deal with its own
:22:08. > :22:13.resources and sort out its own economy. That is all referendum
:22:14. > :22:20.issues. Now the other stories making headlines around the world tonight.
:22:21. > :22:27.One baby has died 14 are ill with blood poisoning after being given
:22:28. > :22:32.what appears to be a contaminated batch of liquid food. The US
:22:33. > :22:36.President accuses Russia of dark tactics and bullying in Ukraine. The
:22:37. > :22:39.Washington Post report an investigation into a former home in
:22:40. > :22:42.Ireland, where hundreds of dead children were found in a septic
:22:43. > :22:48.tank. Here to discuss the biggest online
:22:49. > :22:51.news stories are Noorah Al-Gailani, curator of Islamic Civilisations at
:22:52. > :22:53.Glasgow Museums and Alastair McIntosh, author and independent
:22:54. > :23:02.academic. Let us pick up on the Queen's
:23:03. > :23:13.Speech. Watching all the pomp and ceremony, people around the world
:23:14. > :23:18.find it bizarre. From outside the UK it probably looks quite strange. Is
:23:19. > :23:28.it time to update it? It does take Britain back to it is days, guilt
:23:29. > :23:31.carriages, all of that. It's an anti-quitted ceremony, does it
:23:32. > :23:36.reflect the kind of people who we are today? Now, for some people it
:23:37. > :23:40.very much does. I have to say that, you know, when you see the Queen, at
:23:41. > :23:48.her age, undergoing all of that, you have to think - what a power gun of
:23:49. > :23:51.public service she is. When you deacon instruct the principles of
:23:52. > :23:58.power expressed in that, is that really how we understand our
:23:59. > :24:03.democracy in modern times? Aidan John-Moffatt said the Queen's Speech
:24:04. > :24:07.is live on the BBC, "look at it, it insists in the 21th century" he
:24:08. > :24:11.think it is's time to update it. When you watch our pomp and
:24:12. > :24:16.circumstance at its best, how does it make you feel? Is Well, it is
:24:17. > :24:21.very interesting to watch, but I must say, now I've been here for a
:24:22. > :24:27.good 21 years, I find it does - it is a symbol of stability, given that
:24:28. > :24:37.I come from such an unstable part of the world. Iraq? Yes, Iraq. Only
:24:38. > :24:43.yesterday, a local Iraqi newspaper was covering the subject of the
:24:44. > :24:50.Iraqi monarchy, which was toppled over in 1958, and harking back to
:24:51. > :24:56.those stable and positive days in comparison to what's happening to
:24:57. > :24:59.the people today, or what they are doing to themselves as they fight
:25:00. > :25:06.over this new democratic experience in Iraq. They want to set up a
:25:07. > :25:10.museum to learn about the monarchy period in Iraq. The SNP of course
:25:11. > :25:15.say that the Queen will remain as the Head of State in an independent
:25:16. > :25:19.Scotland, if we have one. Is that important for stability or are they
:25:20. > :25:22.staying that in order not to lose any royalist votes? They are saying
:25:23. > :25:27.we want to be like any other Commonwealth country. You have to
:25:28. > :25:32.remember that the current structure was structured when James VI went
:25:33. > :25:35.down to London to become James I to ensure the Protestant succession.
:25:36. > :25:41.Longer term, is it what we still want? I have to say, you know, I'm a
:25:42. > :25:46.Green-type myself. I would say, if we are going to get rid of it, let
:25:47. > :25:51.Charlie have his innings first and see what happens then. There is
:25:52. > :25:55.quite a row brewing tonight over an interview Alastair Darling gave to
:25:56. > :25:59.the New Statesman when he compared Alex Salmond to the Kim Jong-il. He
:26:00. > :26:03.explained about statements Alex Salmond had made about the BBC's
:26:04. > :26:08.coverage of the European elections. Unsurprisingly, the SNP are furious
:26:09. > :26:12.about this. Does it lower the tone of the whole debate when people make
:26:13. > :26:19.comparisons like this, or is it fair snuff? Oh... For me, my reaction
:26:20. > :26:25.immediately was - people sometimes get so frustrated they do start to
:26:26. > :26:31.use names and do comparisons and hurt each other in the process. But,
:26:32. > :26:34.perhaps, some historical figures have become so notorious it's
:26:35. > :26:42.impossible to use them as an example. It doesn't have its
:26:43. > :26:50.realism, let's say. It shouldn't be taken at all seriously. Mr
:26:51. > :26:56.Robertson, the SNP leader at Westminster was tweeting, it's an
:26:57. > :27:08.unacceptable low that Alistair Darling had talked about blood and
:27:09. > :27:14.soil nationalism. The paper are saying they misquoted that. How do
:27:15. > :27:22.you feel when people are using phrases like this? This is where we
:27:23. > :27:27.need respectful dialogue. To liken the democratically leader of
:27:28. > :27:31.Scotland to one of the most notorious dictators in the world is
:27:32. > :27:41.not respectful. I better not say how I feel or I might not be respectful
:27:42. > :27:47.to my old colleague Alastair Darling. Does it surprise you how
:27:48. > :27:54.language is used in this debate? Yes, but I think when people fight
:27:55. > :27:58.for causes, people End up, perhaps, using many tools that they may
:27:59. > :28:02.regret later on. Thank you both very much for coming in to talk to us.
:28:03. > :28:03.That is it for tonight. Thank you for watching. We will be back at the
:28:04. > :29:18.same time tomorrow. Join us then. demands to know what exactly is
:29:19. > :29:19.going on between the Education Secretary and the