21/08/2014

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:00:00. > :00:07.How much of the black, black oil is left under the deep blue sea? That

:00:08. > :00:10.depends on who you listen to. Tonight we will be trying to get

:00:11. > :00:32.some straight answers for you. I am not promising we will succeed.

:00:33. > :00:35.North Sea oil has always been at the heart of the argument

:00:36. > :00:40.Today it was the subject of heated exchanges between

:00:41. > :00:42.the First Minister and the leaders of the Better Together parties

:00:43. > :00:44.during the last parliamentary session before the referendum.

:00:45. > :00:47.So, how much of it is left and how much money is it worth?

:00:48. > :00:52.Will we even need the oil if we can generate enough renewable

:00:53. > :00:55.It has just been announced that the world's largest tidal energy

:00:56. > :00:58.project is to begin in the Pentland Firth later this year.

:00:59. > :01:03.Panama does not have its own currency and is doing very

:01:04. > :01:07.A new report today suggests that using the pound without

:01:08. > :01:14.a formal currency union could be a good thing.

:01:15. > :01:17.The Scottish parliament will not meet again before the referendum.

:01:18. > :01:19.MSPs will now be able to spend all of their time campaigning

:01:20. > :01:24.If you were listening to proceedings in Holyrood today, you might think

:01:25. > :01:28.campaigning is exactly what they were doing inside the chamber.

:01:29. > :01:30.They were arguing over differing estimates about how much oil is left

:01:31. > :01:34.under the North Sea, following the intervention by industry leader

:01:35. > :01:37.Sir Ian Wood who suggested yesterday that Scotland could not

:01:38. > :01:56.The first trickle will grow and by 1977 supplies from this field alone

:01:57. > :02:01.should amount to at least a quarter of the oil we require as a nation.

:02:02. > :02:07.This was the first oil to be filmed coming out of the North Sea. How

:02:08. > :02:10.long will it last? An expert says Scotland's economic future is being

:02:11. > :02:16.sold to voters using the wrong maths. The young people voting now

:02:17. > :02:25.in 2030 will begin to see real impact on jobs, on money available

:02:26. > :02:31.to the Scottish exchequer. By 2050, we are going to have a huge hole to

:02:32. > :02:37.fill. With four weeks to go, you could feel how important this was to

:02:38. > :02:41.both sides today. Scotland's greatest oil expert says

:02:42. > :02:46.independence would be bad for Scotland. Is it not the case, Alex

:02:47. > :02:58.Salmond does not have a plan B on currency, Europe, oil? Disport

:02:59. > :03:10.united country of Scotland, only 16.5 billion of oil up to 2050, or

:03:11. > :03:18.perhaps only 1.5 trillion... Alex Salmond, 1.5 trillion figure, the

:03:19. > :03:24.value of offshore oil and gas. It is calculated on the basis that 24

:03:25. > :03:30.billion barrels of oil will be extracted. Is that realistic? It is

:03:31. > :03:34.the most optimistic end of the projections put forward by experts

:03:35. > :03:38.including Sir Ian Wood. The reserves are there. The question is whether

:03:39. > :03:43.they will get into production and that depends on whether it is

:03:44. > :03:48.cost-effective to get it out of the ground, whether new technology will

:03:49. > :03:52.become available and the unpredictable price of oil. Sir Ian

:03:53. > :03:58.Wood says the most realistic figure would mean ?2 billion less for

:03:59. > :04:03.government coffers over five years. That is why the First Minister is

:04:04. > :04:08.being accused of using misleading figures. But today another oil

:04:09. > :04:12.expert said the ultimate potential of 24 billion barrels appears

:04:13. > :04:20.plausible. The next big question is, will any of this effect the way

:04:21. > :04:25.people vote? It would probably affect my vote. It has been a

:04:26. > :04:33.sweetener but not critical. It is not something I have looked into.

:04:34. > :04:37.The answer on future oil revenue is it depends. Perhaps what we can do

:04:38. > :04:40.juices have politicians use figures, whether they use caution or optimism

:04:41. > :04:45.-- that's what we can do juices. This evening, in our Dundee studio,

:04:46. > :04:48.we have the SNP's Treasury spokesperson, Stewart Hosie. And

:04:49. > :04:50.in the studio, Labour's Shadow And to give us the industry

:04:51. > :05:02.overview, the energy analyst from Thank you for joining us. Let me ask

:05:03. > :05:10.you, Stewart Hosie, first. Alex Salmond agrees in word is a

:05:11. > :05:17.well-respected expert -- Sir Ian Wood. Why does he not believe him

:05:18. > :05:28.now about the number of recoverable barrels of oil? We have had the

:05:29. > :05:30.First Minister confirm far more than the 10 billion barrel figure quoted

:05:31. > :05:35.by the Office for Budget Responsibility. 24 billion was

:05:36. > :05:43.quoted in the white figure. -- white paper. It does not change the figure

:05:44. > :05:47.for the future assuming the deficiencies are there and new

:05:48. > :05:52.technology is delivered. Sir Ian Wood who I am sure you will agree is

:05:53. > :05:58.well-respected, he does not think it is recoverable. 16.5 billion is the

:05:59. > :06:02.most you will get out. Another professor who is the chair of

:06:03. > :06:08.geology and petroleum geology at Aberdeen University suggests there

:06:09. > :06:13.might be 35 billion barrels of oil and gas. We have been told that is

:06:14. > :06:18.running out for the last 30 years. We have found new technology, new

:06:19. > :06:27.entrants into the market, getting out or land gas that was never meant

:06:28. > :06:31.to happen. It is also making sure it is cost efficient. The UK Government

:06:32. > :06:38.hiked up the supplementary charge in 2010 and was at it again this year.

:06:39. > :06:45.Changed the tax regime. Even if there are only 15 billion barrels of

:06:46. > :06:51.recoverable oil, it is still a great asset. What country would not want

:06:52. > :06:56.to have that much oil? No one is arguing it is a good contribution.

:06:57. > :07:00.The problem for Alex Salmond and the SNP is that all of their case is

:07:01. > :07:04.predicated on 24 billion barrels being extracted. That is what the

:07:05. > :07:10.white paper is based on, the high end of the projections. Would-be

:07:11. > :07:13.assassin and assumption and exaggeration to get to the 1.5

:07:14. > :07:18.trillion figure and presenting it as though it is revenue when it is

:07:19. > :07:23.wholesale value. The marginal fields, the cost to get the oil out

:07:24. > :07:28.is higher and the technology needed is more intense. It comes with added

:07:29. > :07:33.cost. To suggest somehow all of this can be based on the 24 billion

:07:34. > :07:39.barrels of oil, the high and optimism scenario, it is a real flaw

:07:40. > :07:42.in the SNP's argument, particularly as their own fiscal commission says

:07:43. > :07:46.they should be cautious. Cautious and credible estimates would be

:07:47. > :07:51.better rather than the overblown and highly optimistic ones in the white

:07:52. > :07:57.paper. That is a problem in terms of the credibility. You have the

:07:58. > :08:03.unenviable task of telling us who is telling us the truth. What does the

:08:04. > :08:08.industry think? Sir Ian Wood is a respected figure and he cannot know

:08:09. > :08:13.for certain. He came up with a wide range of possible scenarios. 24

:08:14. > :08:16.billion is possible but towards the more optimistic end clearly. The

:08:17. > :08:21.ultimate answer is that people do not know and it relies on a number

:08:22. > :08:24.of different variables, from taxation regime to global

:08:25. > :08:32.competition, also cost in the industry. Last year alone costs went

:08:33. > :08:37.up 15% on the continental shelf for production and it makes a huge

:08:38. > :08:40.difference where oil companies invest. It is clear there will be a

:08:41. > :08:47.lot of revenue to come out of the North Sea, but it is the rate at

:08:48. > :08:52.which it comes out and declines. Certainly it is in long-term

:08:53. > :08:56.decline. Stewart Hosie, with all of the variables, it is difficult to

:08:57. > :08:59.know what the revenues would be and how much can be extracted because we

:09:00. > :09:10.do not know what the price will be in the future. You cannot really

:09:11. > :09:15.make such precise estimates. The report of a couple of years ago

:09:16. > :09:18.suggested something in the order of 400 billion of revenue. That seems a

:09:19. > :09:28.fairly reasonable estimate over the lifetime. A good estimate. How can

:09:29. > :09:35.you estimate it given the variables? Scotland is, as the First Minister

:09:36. > :09:41.said, it cannot be a burden for us, discovering oil. We have to make the

:09:42. > :09:46.best estimate we can on a range of factors productivity, cost, fiscal

:09:47. > :09:50.regime, all of these things. We think an independent Scotland can do

:09:51. > :09:55.it better. We understand the oil sector better than the UK. We would

:09:56. > :10:00.not tax it to death. We would allow marginal fields to be profitable, to

:10:01. > :10:04.work, instead of treating it like a cash cow which is what the UK

:10:05. > :10:08.Government have done for the last 40 years. You are hoping to form the

:10:09. > :10:12.next UK Government in the Labour Party. Would you do anything

:10:13. > :10:18.different with the oil industry in Scotland? Everything he said would

:10:19. > :10:22.be fine if they had not made all of their assertions in the white paper

:10:23. > :10:25.on the high-end of the scenarios. That has consequences for people I

:10:26. > :10:28.represent in Lanarkshire because it is about the amount of money

:10:29. > :10:33.available to spend on public services. It is real to people in

:10:34. > :10:37.terms of the debate. When we talk about the North Sea, Sir Ian Wood

:10:38. > :10:40.made it clear in his report, we are talking about a largely maturing

:10:41. > :10:44.basin and that there will be new discoveries but they are small

:10:45. > :10:50.compared to the other fields close to being exploited. We are still

:10:51. > :10:54.talking about something which is very often marginal in terms of

:10:55. > :10:58.economic activity and we cannot base all of our economy on the highest

:10:59. > :11:04.end assumptions and projections because if we are doing that we are

:11:05. > :11:10.opening ourselves up to eight -- to a place where we have real Robinson

:11:11. > :11:17.stop stay with me. It was announced earlier this evening that the

:11:18. > :11:19.construction of one of the world's largest tidal energy projects is

:11:20. > :11:23.going to begin in the Pentland Firth.

:11:24. > :11:26.It is claimed the MeyGen scheme will ultimately be capable of producing

:11:27. > :11:28.enough electricity to meet the needs of 175,000 households.

:11:29. > :11:30.Earlier I spoke to David Miller, the BBC's environment correspondent, and

:11:31. > :11:39.This is being seen as highly significant for the sector. We

:11:40. > :11:46.learnt today a ?50 million funding package is now in place to pay for

:11:47. > :11:55.phase one A of the project. It will see four turbines being installed in

:11:56. > :12:01.the Pentland Firth as -- along with a grid onshore. This will be the

:12:02. > :12:12.first of many. The scheme is for as many as 269 turbines to be

:12:13. > :12:17.installed, leading to a generating capacity of 175,000 households. It

:12:18. > :12:22.is a big project and the industry is delighted that finally this funding

:12:23. > :12:27.package is in place. It will not all be plain sailing. No, there will be

:12:28. > :12:31.tough times ahead, no question of that. The ?50 million has come in

:12:32. > :12:35.part from the Scottish gunmen, Scottish enterprise, the Department

:12:36. > :12:41.of Energy and Climate Change in London and also from the crown

:12:42. > :12:45.estate. The Scottish Energy Minister said that the successful harnessing

:12:46. > :12:50.of ocean power, as he describes it, will take hard work and persistence.

:12:51. > :12:55.But he also made clear the Scottish Government was prepared to stand by

:12:56. > :13:00.the industry in the years ahead, as it continues to mature. We have had

:13:01. > :13:04.a similar message from the UK Energy Secretary, Ed Davey, who is saying

:13:05. > :13:08.tonight that Scotland and the UK is now in pole position and could in

:13:09. > :13:13.the years ahead be in a position to export this technology around the

:13:14. > :13:17.world. The significance of today's news I think is that we are now

:13:18. > :13:22.beginning to see the tidal energy sector move away from research and

:13:23. > :13:29.development work, from demonstration projects, towards deployment on a

:13:30. > :13:33.commercial scale. Thank you. Asda have my guests with me. David

:13:34. > :13:40.Hunter, is Scotland at the cutting edge of making tidal power work on a

:13:41. > :13:44.commercial basis? -- I still have my guests with me. Scotland shows

:13:45. > :13:48.competitive advantage. It is encouraging we are investing. It is

:13:49. > :13:52.the kind of technology we should be investing subsidies in to build

:13:53. > :13:59.upscale and what you should see over time is the cost of that technology

:14:00. > :14:02.falling. Clearly, we have the natural resources for it. Looking at

:14:03. > :14:08.technologies like offshore wind, it is more difficult overtime because

:14:09. > :14:12.it is not new technology but we are still heavily subsidising these

:14:13. > :14:16.projects and the costs are very sticky. Technology is where we have

:14:17. > :14:23.competitive advantage. That has got to be good news. Are you excited

:14:24. > :14:28.about the potential for tidal power? At this stage, it will still be very

:14:29. > :14:32.expensive compared to other forms of renewable technology. If it is more

:14:33. > :14:39.cost competitive, it can deal with issues around intermittent sources

:14:40. > :14:44.we currently have. Can you see a day when it is more cost-effective than

:14:45. > :14:47.wind power? When we have the critical mass in a green

:14:48. > :14:51.technology, the cost comes down and it is a good thing. I am really

:14:52. > :15:01.excited about this project. It has the potential to power many homes in

:15:02. > :15:04.one location. Given Scotland's green potential, we will not just be

:15:05. > :15:07.powering Scotland, but the whole of the island. I am sure exporting

:15:08. > :15:11.further afield as well. Thank you. Now, you have probably heard many

:15:12. > :15:14.Better Together campaigners describing the idea of an

:15:15. > :15:16.independent Scotland using the pound sterling without a formal currency

:15:17. > :15:19.union as the "Panama solution". As though there could be nothing worse

:15:20. > :15:22.than having an economy similar to Panama's. Actually they are doing

:15:23. > :15:24.quite well, and a new report out today suggests that

:15:25. > :15:27."sterlingisation" could strengthen Scotland's financial system. The

:15:28. > :15:30.economic think tank, the Adam Smith Institute, says not having a lender

:15:31. > :15:46.of last resort would mean banks This is to propose would make the

:15:47. > :15:51.Scottish financial sector more stable and risk averse than it is

:15:52. > :15:56.now and indeed then the UK is right now. In the long run it would mean

:15:57. > :15:59.fewer financial crises. That is what we saw last time Scotland had a

:16:00. > :16:06.system like that. There is no reason we can't have that again. Where do

:16:07. > :16:08.you want your money? In a stable financial environment or one that

:16:09. > :16:12.leads to repeated financial crisis? The Adam Smith Institute used Panama

:16:13. > :16:15.as a key example in this report, so when our Economics Correspondent

:16:16. > :16:17.Colletta Smith was here earlier, I began by asking her, what's so great

:16:18. > :16:25.about the Panamanian economy? Colletta Smith was here earlier, I

:16:26. > :16:30.When most people think of Panama, they think of oversized hats or a

:16:31. > :16:35.canal. This report goes deeper than that. It points out that Panama has

:16:36. > :16:38.been using the dollar without the permission of the United States for

:16:39. > :16:44.more than 100 years and things seem to be going pretty well. Scotland

:16:45. > :16:48.could do essentially the same thing. Because the print money here, it

:16:49. > :16:54.would be easy to change the system. Basically, to use the pound anyway.

:16:55. > :16:58.For banks to keep reserves in the box and be able to lend out. It

:16:59. > :17:04.would be up to them to take the risk on that. Panama do not have a lender

:17:05. > :17:09.of last resort. The Adam Smith Institute point out that has made

:17:10. > :17:13.them risk averse. The system has been very stable over the last 100

:17:14. > :17:16.year. The economy has grown very quickly. Things seem to be going

:17:17. > :17:24.well for Panama. Is it a fair comparison? Scotland is different

:17:25. > :17:32.and the crucial question is how intertwined is it with the UK. That

:17:33. > :17:37.is skirted over in this report. We have banks based in Edinburgh. The

:17:38. > :17:43.report says both those institutions would probably move to the City of

:17:44. > :17:47.London. It skirts on by saying jobs may well remain in Scotland. But I

:17:48. > :17:51.imagine a lot of people would take issue with this. That could affect

:17:52. > :17:56.the whole financial system in Scotland. What has been the reaction

:17:57. > :18:01.to this report? The SNP seem surprised, pleasantly surprised by

:18:02. > :18:06.Today's report. They are not natural bedfellows with the Adam Smith

:18:07. > :18:13.Institute. They are further to the right of the political spectrum than

:18:14. > :18:16.the SNP. And Panama is a developing nation, not really comparable

:18:17. > :18:20.Scotland and not necessarily something we should be aiming for.

:18:21. > :18:26.And there are economists disagreeing with the report. They say that banks

:18:27. > :18:27.are not the right people to trust when it comes to regulating

:18:28. > :18:29.themselves. Joining me tonight are two economic

:18:30. > :18:31.commentators and authors. In Edinburgh we have George Kerevan and

:18:32. > :18:42.here in the studio is Peter Jones. We are delighted to have you both.

:18:43. > :18:47.This is the same panel we had when they discussed another report two

:18:48. > :18:50.weeks ago. They said sterlingisation would be problematic. Now the Adam

:18:51. > :19:02.Smith Institute are saying the opposite. Is sterlingisation what

:19:03. > :19:09.Plan B is? Well, we had to think tanks. One on the left and one on

:19:10. > :19:13.the right. Both saying, actually, Scotland should keep the pound. But

:19:14. > :19:18.disagreeing about what the underpinning should be. We have had

:19:19. > :19:22.The National Trust Institute seeing if we do not get plan A, a

:19:23. > :19:28.partnership with the Bank of England, if English politicians talk

:19:29. > :19:33.themselves into that corner, then we need a lender of last resort. What

:19:34. > :19:37.the Adam Smith Institute is saying is to go back to the old Scottish

:19:38. > :19:43.system whereby we make the banks responsible. We then limit what the

:19:44. > :19:50.banks can borrow themselves and therefore they cannot get into the

:19:51. > :19:53.difficulties they got into in 2008. Peter Jones, the problem is that

:19:54. > :19:57.whilst politicians may see this as an attractive solution, it answers

:19:58. > :20:01.the question of what is Plan B and means you never have to bail out

:20:02. > :20:04.banks, so good for taxpayers, but the banks will not like this. They

:20:05. > :20:12.will probably not remain here under those circumstances. The period the

:20:13. > :20:17.Adam Smith Institute bases its model on is very interesting. That golden

:20:18. > :20:25.age, as they describe it, Scottish banking. By the end of that period,

:20:26. > :20:30.in the mid-19th century there were only 17 of the several hundred banks

:20:31. > :20:35.left. Some had closed their doors because they weren't doing a

:20:36. > :20:41.terribly good job. Some went bust in spectacular fashion. In one case,

:20:42. > :20:47.the Glasgow bank, the directors were put on trial for fraud and sent to

:20:48. > :20:51.jail. The whole thing, the banking system, depends on confidence. One

:20:52. > :20:58.of the problems with that system is that there is no depositor

:20:59. > :21:04.insurance. They are effectively bailed out by shareholders. They

:21:05. > :21:11.were forced to do that because liability was unlimited. For

:21:12. > :21:19.example, a shareholder with ?500 in one bank had to stump up more than

:21:20. > :21:29.?2000 in order to pay off all the depositors. When you look at what

:21:30. > :21:38.the Adam Smith Institute are seeing, is this a picture that the SNP will

:21:39. > :21:41.find attractive? The Scottish Government wants to have a

:21:42. > :21:45.partnership with the rest of the UK. A common Bank of England to manage

:21:46. > :21:51.the currency and to supervise the banks. It seems bizarre to me, and

:21:52. > :21:59.too many economists, while model would be rejected. I do not think

:22:00. > :22:03.the model being pursued by the Adam Smith Institute is the best one.

:22:04. > :22:07.What is interesting is that it shows that there are both economists on

:22:08. > :22:11.the right and left who still think that keeping a common currency is

:22:12. > :22:18.something we need to trade. That is the basic argument. It is the No

:22:19. > :22:25.campaign who, for political campaign reasons, have tried to break up the

:22:26. > :22:30.currency argument. We have had eminent economists this week saying

:22:31. > :22:34.he thinks the Westminster Government would change its mind in the event

:22:35. > :22:40.of a No vote. Is there any need to discuss Plan B or will there be a

:22:41. > :22:44.plan A in the end? There are two things happening. One of the

:22:45. > :22:50.economic argument. He argued about trade is respectable. In terms of

:22:51. > :22:56.trade, a currency union is a good idea. That then you have the problem

:22:57. > :23:00.of bank liability. Collapsing banks. How do they get bailed out

:23:01. > :23:08.Iraq and secondly, the problem of sovereign liability. The sovereign

:23:09. > :23:17.bank or state goes bust, how do you build them out? There are those

:23:18. > :23:21.arguments there. Then there is the question of controlling deposits.

:23:22. > :23:25.How do you stop them flying south of the border. It did not matter in the

:23:26. > :23:28.19th century because it was not physically possible to do it but

:23:29. > :23:36.nowadays you can do that at the click of a button. It is difficult

:23:37. > :23:41.to stop now. Confidence in the banking sector is essential. We saw

:23:42. > :23:45.that with Northern Rock. Confidence one day, none the next. Everybody

:23:46. > :23:49.queued up to withdraw their thank you.

:23:50. > :23:51.Now here's a few stories making the headlines

:23:52. > :24:09.The New York Times reports demands of a multi-million dollar ransom

:24:10. > :24:17.prior to the merger of James Foley. Al Jazeera confirms the commanders

:24:18. > :24:23.were killed. From BBC online, to USA workers infected with a bowler have

:24:24. > :24:26.been discharged from hospital. -- the ball a virus.

:24:27. > :24:30.Now, to talk about some other news of the day I'm joined by Stephen

:24:31. > :24:32.Gethins, former special advisor to Alex Salmond and Mary Galbraith, who

:24:33. > :24:35.is standing for Labour in Argyll Bute in next year's general

:24:36. > :24:59.An interesting tweet: A senior SNP source had told him "this will be

:25:00. > :25:02.one of Salmond's last FM queues". I think he has been looking at the

:25:03. > :25:12.polls closer and closer and think they will be talking about the end

:25:13. > :25:15.use. He is hinting he might not be the leader of the SNP. I don't take

:25:16. > :25:19.it seriously. You cannot believe everything that is written in the

:25:20. > :25:29.newspapers. Except that the First Minister himself... I really think

:25:30. > :25:32.this is tittle tattle. Out of the horse's mouth this week, Alex

:25:33. > :25:37.Salmond himself said he would stand only be thought it was the way to

:25:38. > :25:40.guarantee independence for Scotland. What he said, and it is quite

:25:41. > :25:44.telling, was the referendum is bigger than everybody. It is bigger

:25:45. > :25:51.than Alex Salmond, the SNP and the Labour Party. What he was saying was

:25:52. > :25:54.that if somebody could guarantee independence if he stood down, he

:25:55. > :26:00.would take that in an instant. There is nobody in the SNP who would not

:26:01. > :26:02.take that in an instant. There is speculation at Westminster that

:26:03. > :26:07.David Cameron would have to resign in the event of a Yes vote. It would

:26:08. > :26:13.be such a crushing embarrassment. If there is a No vote, will be called

:26:14. > :26:19.Alex Salmond to step down? We agree that this is not about individuals.

:26:20. > :26:23.It is not about David Cameron. It is about issues. Do we keep the

:26:24. > :26:28.currency? Do we stay in the EU? What we do about the ?1400 per person?

:26:29. > :26:31.That is what people care about. They do not care about the personality or

:26:32. > :26:37.cult that is running around the place. But come the 19th of

:26:38. > :26:43.September in the event of a No vote, there will be no more questions

:26:44. > :26:50.about currency or other issues. They will be questions about the person

:26:51. > :26:55.who led the campaign. We're in uncharted territory there. The whole

:26:56. > :26:59.campaign is an chartered. It would be dangerous to speculate. What is

:27:00. > :27:04.interesting to speculate is that there are people already in the SNP

:27:05. > :27:07.who are gunning for Alex Salmond. It would be interesting to know if it

:27:08. > :27:10.is the same people who had the knives out after the Alistair

:27:11. > :27:17.Darling debate a couple of weeks ago when his performance fell below

:27:18. > :27:20.expectations. Can I say that Alex Salmond has positive approval

:27:21. > :27:29.ratings. You cannot say that for the leaders of the Labour, Conservative

:27:30. > :27:32.or Liberal Democrats partys. After seven years in Government, it is

:27:33. > :27:38.unprecedented to have positive approval ratings. That tells you a

:27:39. > :27:42.lot. He did not get that for his performance in the debate two weeks

:27:43. > :27:46.ago. He is going to have to do better in Munday Bois might debate.

:27:47. > :27:59.On the debate, a lot of people have asked about weird does it go? A poll

:28:00. > :28:07.showed that there was an increase in votes from women. You're going for a

:28:08. > :28:11.Yes vote on the day. I think he did quite well. He reached the audience

:28:12. > :28:16.is needed to. The debate on Monday will be crucial in the campaign.

:28:17. > :28:19.Expectations were low of Alistair Darling before the last one and he

:28:20. > :28:25.exceeded them. It is a different game this time. They will expect him

:28:26. > :28:29.to improve. Can he do that? I think he was always going to be a solid

:28:30. > :28:36.performer. He is a top Edinburgh lawyer. A lot of people expected him

:28:37. > :28:41.to deliver arguments and deliver on substance. And not on style. He went

:28:42. > :28:46.for real issues that mattered. Those were currency. That is why people

:28:47. > :28:53.rated his performance and rated the fact that we were trying to get

:28:54. > :28:56.underneath the bluster we hear about getting our own way. We will demand

:28:57. > :29:04.everyone else does what we say. That is just not something Alex Salmond

:29:05. > :29:07.can promise to deliver. Thank you very much for coming in to talk to

:29:08. > :29:09.That's all from us tonight. Thank you for watching.

:29:10. > :29:12.I will be back on Monday night at the earlier time of ten o'clock,

:29:13. > :29:15.straight after the Alex Salmond / Alistair Darling debate, with all

:29:16. > :29:17.the reaction to what they said and how they both performed.

:29:18. > :30:24.I hope you join me then. Good night.

:30:25. > :30:32.Welcome to Newsnight, live on stage at the Edinburgh Festival.

:30:33. > :30:36.Four weeks today, Scotland votes to stay in the Union or to go it alone.

:30:37. > :30:40.Tonight, with a stellar cast of performers, writers, and thinkers

:30:41. > :30:44.from both sides of the border, including the actor Simon Callow,