26/08/2014

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:00:00. > :00:00.It's the night after the night before.

:00:00. > :00:26.So did the big debate change how anyone intends to vote?

:00:27. > :00:29.Nearly a million viewers in Scotland tuned in last night to watch

:00:30. > :00:31.Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling shouting at each other, often both

:00:32. > :00:41.We'll have our own, very civilised, debate with the directors of both

:00:42. > :00:47.The richest 1% of Scots pay 20% of income tax.

:00:48. > :00:51.Would they stay and pay their share in an independent Scotland?

:00:52. > :00:53.While over 100 Scottish business leaders have signed

:00:54. > :00:56.a letter saying the business case for independence has not been made.

:00:57. > :01:05.Is big business an asset for Better Together?

:01:06. > :01:07.Yes campaigners can't keep the smiles off their faces today

:01:08. > :01:10.as their man has been generally acknowledged to be the victor

:01:11. > :01:13.But there is a difference between winning an argument

:01:14. > :01:18.Do they now have enough momentum to overcome what is still

:01:19. > :01:29.a significant gap in the polls in just over three weeks time?

:01:30. > :01:35.Was it a good morning for Alistair Darling and the Better Together

:01:36. > :01:37.campaign? He woke up to be remind -- reminded the Alex Salmond had been

:01:38. > :01:47.declared the winner of last lap's debate in a poll of around 500

:01:48. > :01:52.people. And there stands the victor. The same poll also said the debate

:01:53. > :01:56.had no bearing on how people would vote, so was all the build-up to

:01:57. > :02:04.last night and the showdown just theatre? Stop playing games! You

:02:05. > :02:11.must have a plan B! If we win the referendum, would you... Alex, Alex,

:02:12. > :02:17.nobody can hear. A lot of people were listening. By tomorrow morning,

:02:18. > :02:21.there is registered by post will be able to start casting their vote.

:02:22. > :02:25.This is the largest retirement village in Scotland, and there is it

:02:26. > :02:29.to call each high number of postal voters here but with their ballot

:02:30. > :02:33.papers being sent out today, they could be amongst some of the first

:02:34. > :02:46.people in Scotland to say yes or no to independence. I thought it was at

:02:47. > :02:52.bark or more a debate. -- I thought it was a debacle. You couldn't hear

:02:53. > :03:03.what they were saying. I don't think a debate like that is going to

:03:04. > :03:07.change people 's minds. The things discussed were not on a good level,

:03:08. > :03:13.in my opinion. Do these things matter when you make up your mind? I

:03:14. > :03:21.am still undecided, to be honest. Totally undecided. And last night

:03:22. > :03:25.didn't help me make a decision. How many changed your mind as a result

:03:26. > :03:33.of the debate? Absolutely no one. OK. Hands were on show here in

:03:34. > :03:38.Lanarkshire. These younger voters were glued to the debate. Who thinks

:03:39. > :03:45.that the debate last night will have influenced the vote in general? Are

:03:46. > :03:54.younger people more influenced by it? Definitely. TV is so... The

:03:55. > :04:02.16-year-old would watch a TV debate. You'd rather what ship on TV than

:04:03. > :04:08.read about it. -- you'd rather watch it on TV. What about social media?

:04:09. > :04:16.It is a huge platform for it. It is good for propaganda and young

:04:17. > :04:23.people. Facebook is flooded from end is flooded with things right now.

:04:24. > :04:28.This professor has been studying the trends. I have seen a couple of

:04:29. > :04:32.trends saying, yes, that is me decided right now, but people on the

:04:33. > :04:38.whole people on Twitter or people who had made their mind up already.

:04:39. > :04:45.Where are the undecided people? And how are the campaign is going to

:04:46. > :04:51.reach them? We have Blair Jenkins and Blair

:04:52. > :04:56.McDougall in the studio today. Thank you for coming in. I'm sure you've

:04:57. > :04:59.been having a good day, Blair Jenkins, as Alex Salmond seems to

:05:00. > :05:03.have been the winner of the debate but it doesn't seem to have changed

:05:04. > :05:08.people 's voting intentions. When I am not in the studios, I'm out on

:05:09. > :05:11.the street, knocking on doors and talking to people. And talking to

:05:12. > :05:19.people today, people watched the debate, and all the momentum is

:05:20. > :05:24.towards us. We are very pleased with the response we are getting. The

:05:25. > :05:30.momentum was with us prior to the debate and events within the last 24

:05:31. > :05:38.hours have helped us. What happened with Alistair Darling last night? He

:05:39. > :05:42.needs a new song. I think what happened is that the sheltie Alex

:05:43. > :05:48.Salmond that we see week in and week out on TV turned up. The undecided

:05:49. > :05:52.voters hit the nail on the head - he can win shouting match, he does that

:05:53. > :05:58.regulate, but that is different to winning an argument. Persuasion is

:05:59. > :06:04.different to performance. People turned up, desperate for answers to

:06:05. > :06:10.the questions, and they didn't get them. When they started talking

:06:11. > :06:14.about the currency and independent Scotland, the audience actually

:06:15. > :06:20.groaned. You could hear Alex Salmond grown and the Nationalists grown. I

:06:21. > :06:25.accept the Nationalists don't care what currency we use. They will vote

:06:26. > :06:28.yes even if they believe we will be worse off, but for most of us, we

:06:29. > :06:33.want to know what currency is going to be funding our public services,

:06:34. > :06:40.what our pensions are going to be worth, and what we all pay for our

:06:41. > :06:44.weekly shopping. It matters. Blair Jenkins will tell us we should stop

:06:45. > :06:49.asking the question because he knows it is important. I don't think we

:06:50. > :06:54.saw much of Alistair Darling's debating skills. We got into big

:06:55. > :07:01.subjects last night, like the threat to public services, if they -- if

:07:02. > :07:08.there were to be a no vote. And the need to find new jobs. That is

:07:09. > :07:13.something people are talking to me about today. Let's talk about the

:07:14. > :07:17.job creating powers in Scotland. Even as Alex Salmond was talking

:07:18. > :07:20.about the NHS, you had to concede that health care is pretty much

:07:21. > :07:25.fully devolved from the Scottish bollard and he is in charge of it,

:07:26. > :07:27.not anybody in Westminster. No one is disputing health policy is

:07:28. > :07:34.devolved, but funding isn't devolved. The funding for Scottish

:07:35. > :07:40.Parliament and government is determined at Westminster. And as

:07:41. > :07:45.they are cutting in Westminster and as they intend to, and in Wales we

:07:46. > :07:52.have seen a cut in real terms in health spending, and we have to

:07:53. > :07:55.understand with a Tory government, who think that public services are

:07:56. > :08:04.an unnecessary expense, that will only go downhill. They talked about

:08:05. > :08:08.more powers for the Scottish Parliament if there was a no vote.

:08:09. > :08:14.Better Together will have to get it together in what is being offered. I

:08:15. > :08:18.find it extraordinary the whole case for independence rests on things

:08:19. > :08:24.that are already devolved. Alex Salmond asked what more job-creating

:08:25. > :08:29.powers will be devolved, but you might ask about what educating

:08:30. > :08:34.powers will be devolved. They have the power to create jobs. He

:08:35. > :08:39.pretended he didn't have any powers. This whole debate rests on to make

:08:40. > :08:42.things, seemingly, which are completely within the control of the

:08:43. > :08:45.Scottish Parliament. It was extraordinary that after three weeks

:08:46. > :08:50.since the debate where he didn't mention the NHS at all, where he had

:08:51. > :08:54.been trying to scare people about privatisation, he was forced to say

:08:55. > :08:58.that there is no way that Scotland could be. Private eye is the NHS

:08:59. > :09:03.because just that morning the doctor in the hospital in Newcastle who had

:09:04. > :09:06.started the whole SNP lies said it was just simply not true what he was

:09:07. > :09:12.saying and what Blair Jenkins's campaign was saying. People in

:09:13. > :09:16.Scotland are interested in how we are going to grow our economy, and

:09:17. > :09:21.create more jobs for young people. Talking to people of my age and

:09:22. > :09:27.older... Did Alex Salmond tell people last night? I think we did

:09:28. > :09:31.last night. We can invest more in childcare which gets people back

:09:32. > :09:35.into the working economy. Create more jobs. We can incentivise

:09:36. > :09:39.companies to do more in terms of research and develop in. We can do

:09:40. > :09:45.lots of things but what people of my age and older are saying is that it

:09:46. > :09:50.is the younger generation, children and grandchildren, they are voting

:09:51. > :09:55.yes, which is moving older people. What a fantastic gift to bequeath to

:09:56. > :09:59.the younger generation, the gift of their own country. Who is moving in

:10:00. > :10:09.your own direction? The last two opinion polls which we have made, we

:10:10. > :10:15.have an organisation and political focus on reaching undecided voters.

:10:16. > :10:20.Again, the two examples he gave as a case for independence were childcare

:10:21. > :10:22.and business. Things which were devolved already! Thank you very

:10:23. > :10:24.much. Much of the talk around the

:10:25. > :10:27.referendum has been about inequality in Scotland and we've heard calls

:10:28. > :10:30.for a more even playing field. So how do Scotland's super

:10:31. > :10:32.rich see the debate? If an independent Scotland

:10:33. > :10:34.did try to raise taxes would Our economics correspondent Colletta

:10:35. > :10:59.Smith has been finding out. Butler. The world of Butler service

:11:00. > :11:04.isn't consigned to costume drama. To state in a hotel like this, you'd

:11:05. > :11:08.have to have a certain amount of expendable income anyway. So the

:11:09. > :11:12.people who requested a plus service and book a hotel based on its Butler

:11:13. > :11:19.service tend to be the super wealthy anyway. The role of the Butler is to

:11:20. > :11:23.assist the guest in order to make their experience here in Edinburgh

:11:24. > :11:28.the best it can be. That can be from helping them run their errands, to

:11:29. > :11:34.ironing their shirts and polishing their shoes, ready for them to use.

:11:35. > :11:39.We also quite recently had a guest who didn't have enough time to pick

:11:40. > :11:43.and pay for his engagement ring, so one of our Butler team had to go out

:11:44. > :11:51.and get his engagement ring. And, of course, there was a happy ending to

:11:52. > :12:00.that story because she said yes. Thank you. This kind of life of

:12:01. > :12:03.luxury is beyond the pay of most of us put the number of wealthy people

:12:04. > :12:09.living in Scotland, investing, spending and paying taxes, impacts

:12:10. > :12:14.the whole economy. At the moment, across the UK, the top 1% of earners

:12:15. > :12:18.are paying 20% of the income tax because they are paying at a much

:12:19. > :12:24.higher rate. Whatever your views on whether that is fair or not, it

:12:25. > :12:27.makes that 1%, the super rich, very important to the way Scotland would

:12:28. > :12:33.function as an independent country. Our clients are important to the

:12:34. > :12:38.committee because they are investing their savings in Scottish

:12:39. > :12:42.businesses. So, if life looks more profitable on the other side of the

:12:43. > :12:49.border, would it be easy for the super-rich to move themselves and

:12:50. > :12:54.their money? Yes, it is simple. Theoretically, money can move quite

:12:55. > :12:58.quickly. There are plenty of people at the top end of the earnings scale

:12:59. > :13:05.who are excited about the benefits of independence. Hello, come on in.

:13:06. > :13:10.This man runs an IT firm and his elegant mansion isn't too far away.

:13:11. > :13:18.I don't personally mind paying more tax. If that's what it takes to be

:13:19. > :13:22.able to create more opportunity because it isn't the percentage of

:13:23. > :13:28.the pie that is important to me. It is how big is the pie and how can I

:13:29. > :13:32.see is a piece of it? Others among the super-rich would mind paying

:13:33. > :13:41.more taxes. The rate at the moment, the 40%, I think is fair. I don't

:13:42. > :13:47.think there is much hope for increasing that, that would get

:13:48. > :13:51.people upset. Do you think it is likely a Scottish government would

:13:52. > :13:54.or could increase taxes at the higher end of the spectrum? I

:13:55. > :14:00.honestly believe that taxes can only go one way, up. So, you might be

:14:01. > :14:07.able to take corporation tax down, but overall, the tax take would have

:14:08. > :14:11.to go up in order for us to survive. The thing about changing income tax

:14:12. > :14:14.rates is that people are a lot more mobile than companies. It is easier

:14:15. > :14:19.for individuals to relocate across the border if there is a load income

:14:20. > :14:24.tax rate on the other side. A few years ago, we lived in the South of

:14:25. > :14:29.France rather than in the US or UK, and one of the reasons we chose that

:14:30. > :14:33.is that, actually, because of the tax structure down there, it was a

:14:34. > :14:39.more attractive regime for us. We also lived in the Bahamas. So, tax

:14:40. > :14:42.regimes can affect your decision-making, no doubt. The

:14:43. > :14:48.government in Scotland and the UK might need to compete to hang onto

:14:49. > :14:53.the super-rich. The weather might not even a greatest. My Australian

:14:54. > :14:59.wife occasionally complains about that too. On balance, it is a very

:15:00. > :15:05.good place to live. And if you can couple that with appropriate

:15:06. > :15:10.incentives for entrepreneurs, then I definitely believe you can attract

:15:11. > :15:14.people to Scotland. An independent Scottish government would have to

:15:15. > :15:18.tread a delicate line between making a system which serves the

:15:19. > :15:22.super-rich, and sticking to promises of creating a fairer Scotland. Those

:15:23. > :15:26.defined goals might not be so easy to smooth out.

:15:27. > :15:28.Joining me now from Southampton is Eben Wilson,

:15:29. > :15:30.And in the studio the Herald's political commentator

:15:31. > :15:42.Is, does the ease with which the super-rich can slip across a border

:15:43. > :15:51.into the rest of the UK mean that it would never dare put up income tax?

:15:52. > :15:56.Not at all. I think in an independent Scotland you will see

:15:57. > :16:02.tax broadly rising. Not to the extent of other economies such as

:16:03. > :16:05.Denmark Norway. That doesn't lead to an exodus of businessmen, if they

:16:06. > :16:12.were only interested in tax, they would all be living in Romania, for

:16:13. > :16:16.example. It just isn't like that. There are plenty of wealthy people

:16:17. > :16:21.in Norway, that is because the Norwegian economy is very productive

:16:22. > :16:27.and very dynamic. It is at these economies that are readily feature

:16:28. > :16:33.the top in the World Bank's list of countries where it is best to start

:16:34. > :16:39.a business. But the example you've used is slightly disingenuous,

:16:40. > :16:44.because what you would do is create a situation where it would be easy

:16:45. > :16:47.to domicile yourself in the United Kingdom. It would be the ease with

:16:48. > :16:51.which you could do it that would make it tempting. It depends on the

:16:52. > :17:08.type of tax regime both sides of the border. Norway has the lowest in the

:17:09. > :17:12.world, its GDP per head is high. It sailed through the banking crisis

:17:13. > :17:22.without any trouble at all. That is what smaller, more dynamic economies

:17:23. > :17:22.can achieve. Evan, you find yourself on the same side

:17:23. > :17:27.can achieve. Evan, you find yourself on the as the independence debate

:17:28. > :17:32.with a, both yes supporters, but you would both have a different view

:17:33. > :17:39.about taxation. Can it be lowered? Of course, you would just have to

:17:40. > :17:45.cut some spending. It is not that difficult to find spending you can

:17:46. > :17:50.cut in Scotland. The key is you are trying to release entrepreneurial

:17:51. > :17:53.energy. You want a small, middle and attract big corporations to make

:17:54. > :18:02.Scotland grow very fast. But she would end up with a similar problem,

:18:03. > :18:08.it is very easy to slip across the border in and out of an independent

:18:09. > :18:15.Scotland. We support tax competition, that is why you want

:18:16. > :18:20.it. It shows that tax competition leads to a squashing down of tax

:18:21. > :18:27.rates. Lower tax rates to create growth. We want to lower taxes to

:18:28. > :18:34.create jobs. The idea of business going across the border is

:18:35. > :18:41.ridiculous. Businesses go where the market is. That is where businesses

:18:42. > :18:46.go, but the... No, the point that was being made was that the

:18:47. > :18:54.individuals who run the businesses can find it very easy to run them

:18:55. > :18:57.anywhere. Not necessarily, businessmen are like anyone else,

:18:58. > :19:02.they like to live in a stable, positive society, they don't want to

:19:03. > :19:07.be sticking around tax havens. That is not the key issue, the key issue

:19:08. > :19:11.is where is the best environment for an economy to grow, for businesses

:19:12. > :19:16.to flourish, that doesn't necessarily coincide of low

:19:17. > :19:21.taxation. What would happen is that a businessman will go where they can

:19:22. > :19:29.feel that they are achieving things. The cash is what they -- the cash

:19:30. > :19:34.that they take on themselves is not what they are in business for. That

:19:35. > :19:37.is the environment we have two create. I think you are confusing

:19:38. > :19:44.the business activity and where capital can go. We can lose capital

:19:45. > :19:49.abroad, but that is a different issue. All rights... We will have to

:19:50. > :19:53.leave it there. Thank you very much. 131 Scottish business leaders have

:19:54. > :19:56.signed a letter speaking out against independence, which will appear

:19:57. > :19:57.in tomorrow morning's newspapers. They claim that the business case

:19:58. > :20:00.for independence has not been made and that uncertainty still surrounds

:20:01. > :20:03.a number of vital issues. Earlier I spoke to the

:20:04. > :20:06.BBC's Business Editor Kamal Ahmed. I began by asking him

:20:07. > :20:20.who are some of the bigger names who Well, this letter goes from the very

:20:21. > :20:27.largest businesses, Douglas Flint, the chiming of HSBC, Andrew

:20:28. > :20:31.McKenzie, the chief executive of a large mining company is another.

:20:32. > :20:39.Some are very famous household names, Audrey Baxter, the executive

:20:40. > :20:50.of Baxter food group. And Simon Thompson, the chief executive of

:20:51. > :20:54.cairn energy. It is significant because it is the number as well as

:20:55. > :20:59.the actual businesses that it represents. 133 business people have

:21:00. > :21:08.signed the letter and also a number of smaller businesses. A small

:21:09. > :21:12.engineering firm in the East End of Glasgow, for example. People are

:21:13. > :21:16.saying that businesses have concerns of independence, they are arguing

:21:17. > :21:30.that this goes on the largest of the smallest businesses. Is it likely to

:21:31. > :21:38.change anybody's mind? I think businesses are leading to Thursday

:21:39. > :21:47.night, where the CBI hold their annual dinner in Glasgow. The chief

:21:48. > :21:52.executive of BT group will be there, a well-known opponent of

:21:53. > :21:56.independence. The 'Yes' campaigners say they have many businesses which

:21:57. > :22:02.are pro-independence and that if Scotland did become a independent

:22:03. > :22:08.company that will be good for business. I imagine they are

:22:09. > :22:09.collecting their thoughts together and getting ready for that push

:22:10. > :22:15.before the dinner. Now let's have a look at the rest

:22:16. > :22:18.of the day's news. Joining me now are journalist Kirsty

:22:19. > :22:28.Scott and novelist Peter May. Let's pick up, that debate, what did

:22:29. > :22:35.you make of it? I thought it was rummy. I don't think it will have

:22:36. > :22:40.changed many people's mind. The point is that either of them were

:22:41. > :22:43.making was lost in the cross talk, be speaking and shouting over one

:22:44. > :22:50.another. People are looking for clarity. The debates didn't produce

:22:51. > :22:52.that. We asked our viewers on Twitter what they made of the

:22:53. > :23:17.debate. Alex Salmond was criticised in the

:23:18. > :23:24.first event for being this passionate -- dispassionate. He

:23:25. > :23:29.certainly was. I came away feeling quite depressed after it, it was

:23:30. > :23:32.really just style over substance, there was no clarity. When you are

:23:33. > :23:37.following it on Twitter, the amount of frustration, they weren't

:23:38. > :23:41.answering the questions. This is modern Scotland, we have two middle

:23:42. > :23:46.aged men in suits shouting at each other, but is not the type of

:23:47. > :23:51.Scotland we want. It ended up clouding the issue is, Peter is

:23:52. > :23:58.right, it would change the issues. There is no clarity. Better Together

:23:59. > :24:02.have taken a different tack it tonight. The latest other party

:24:03. > :24:08.political broadcasts went out on TV a few hours ago. It is a mum in her

:24:09. > :24:13.kitchen, saying she hasn't made up her mind. Then she has an epiphany,

:24:14. > :24:18.which we can look at now. I've made up my mind, I will do what is best

:24:19. > :24:27.for Scotland. So, that'll be a 'No' from me. Time to get to work. We

:24:28. > :24:33.have all seen at the whole thing as many viewers will have. Is that more

:24:34. > :24:38.persuasive? It is a very different tone. It certainly is very

:24:39. > :24:42.different. I used to be a script editor for a Scottish soap, I'm

:24:43. > :24:48.afraid if that script had arrived at my desk, I would have sent it back

:24:49. > :24:52.for a rewrite. The transition from uncertainty to those in five seconds

:24:53. > :24:55.at the end. I don't think it is very convincing. But it will have been

:24:56. > :25:02.very carefully scripted, it will have been grouped, they know who

:25:03. > :25:07.they would have targeted, the precise vocabulary to get in.

:25:08. > :25:15.Presumably, it is uncertain women voters. Will it work? I think, when

:25:16. > :25:18.I first saw it, Peter and I were both disappointed in it. They use an

:25:19. > :25:23.actress, it would have had more power to use a normal person. It was

:25:24. > :25:30.very cleverly made. She is sitting in a messy kitchen, she is the

:25:31. > :25:37.Scottish version of the soccer mum. That is who the campaigns need to

:25:38. > :25:42.convince. She is saying she is not ready to take the jump. Yes, you

:25:43. > :25:50.possibly see yourself in her. There were images of the kids, the crowns

:25:51. > :25:58.on the table. Yes, I think that could hit home. 'Yes' Scotland will

:25:59. > :26:02.have their own out tomorrow. Let me pick up what I was discussing

:26:03. > :26:09.earlier, as letter from business leaders. Will that be more

:26:10. > :26:20.persuasive, do you think? Do people care what Germans think? --

:26:21. > :26:27.chairman. No, I don't think so. The focus, people have said, is small

:26:28. > :26:29.and medium businesses. When large businesses say they will move their

:26:30. > :26:35.headquarters, that can be a turn off. But if it is a smaller

:26:36. > :26:39.business, it will have some impact. People will make up their own minds

:26:40. > :26:43.for their own reasons. These things will add to it, but in terms of

:26:44. > :26:50.people thinking a definite 'No', I don't think so. I think, you have

:26:51. > :26:56.won a group coming out with a statement on one side, another with

:26:57. > :27:00.one on the other side... I'm sure it won't be long before an equal number

:27:01. > :27:41.of businessmen signed a letter supporting 'Yes'

:27:42. > :27:46.arguments in a different setting, that can be very persuasive. Thank

:27:47. > :27:51.you both for talking to us. That is all from us, I'll be back at the

:27:52. > :27:53.same time again tomorrow night. Until then, have a good evening.