:00:00. > :00:08.Tonight, the Prime Minister's trying to drum up support for his plan
:00:09. > :00:31.Has he done enough to stop the UK voting to leave Europe?
:00:32. > :00:38.We'll have the latest from Brussels - on David Cameron's charm offensive
:00:39. > :00:42.and as an EU referendum looms - we'll hear from one of Scotland's
:00:43. > :00:47.leading economists on the arguments for and against leaving.
:00:48. > :00:51.The world is awash with cheap oil, but for how much longer?
:00:52. > :00:54.As the Saudis and Russia agree to freeze oil output -
:00:55. > :00:58.we'll ask what it means for the north-east of Scotland.
:00:59. > :01:01.And raising a child costs parents dear.
:01:02. > :01:04.In fact, it's more expensive than buying a house.
:01:05. > :01:14.So what can be done to cheer up Mum and Dad?
:01:15. > :01:18.David Cameron's gearing up for yet another referendum.
:01:19. > :01:22.If he can strike a deal on EU reform, he could be firing
:01:23. > :01:25.the starting gun on Friday - for a UK wide vote, to be
:01:26. > :01:33.But first he has to win over 27 other European governments -
:01:34. > :01:36.who may not see why the UK should be allowed to rewrite the rules
:01:37. > :01:42.And to underline the scale of the challenge -
:01:43. > :01:45.members of the European Parliament warn they won't rubber stamp
:01:46. > :01:58.In 2013, David Cameron went to Bloomberg headquarters in London and
:01:59. > :02:05.began laying out his European demands. Migration did not even get
:02:06. > :02:08.a mention. Today, three years later, as the PM arrived at the European
:02:09. > :02:12.Parliament, it's about the only thing getting a mention in the UK.
:02:13. > :02:19.Poll after poll showed the number one concern is immigration and also,
:02:20. > :02:23.Ukip were remarkably successful in linking the issues of immigration
:02:24. > :02:29.and EU membership in the minds of the public. A recent poll suggests
:02:30. > :02:32.the number in favour of leaving the EU is growing and Brussels seems to
:02:33. > :02:38.have woken up to the real prospect the UK could vote to leave. That
:02:39. > :02:44.stage of United Kingdom as a member of the EU, a question which only the
:02:45. > :02:49.British people will the side but the answer will affect us all. Of
:02:50. > :02:55.particular concern in negotiations is the question of future financial
:02:56. > :03:00.regulation with the French in particular worried the UK is seeking
:03:01. > :03:05.special treatment for the City of London. Meetings yesterday seemed to
:03:06. > :03:09.alleviate those concerns. So a deal now looks possible with many
:03:10. > :03:12.suggesting as soon as the early hours of Friday morning. It is not
:03:13. > :03:18.just the EU leaders to that have to give it the nod. No government can
:03:19. > :03:22.go to a Parliament and say, this is our proposal, can you give a
:03:23. > :03:26.guarantee about the result? This is not possible in democracy and
:03:27. > :03:30.therefore I say, European Parliament will do the utmost to support
:03:31. > :03:34.compromise and a fair deal that I cannot preamble the result in the
:03:35. > :03:39.European Parliament. So if there is a deal and the European Parliament
:03:40. > :03:44.accepted, the UK will find itself in the midst of a referendum campaign
:03:45. > :03:46.which will last for months. By Friday, cab administers could be
:03:47. > :03:50.speaking on different sides of the debate. -- cabinet ministers.
:03:51. > :03:53.Joining me now from our studio in Brussels is Politico
:03:54. > :04:05.Wing as up-to-date, where do the negotiations stand tonight? David
:04:06. > :04:10.Cameron is close to landing a deal. He does have some details to pin
:04:11. > :04:13.down, for example some of the central and eastern European
:04:14. > :04:17.countries, they are afraid their citizens who are already in the UK,
:04:18. > :04:21.might be retroactively penalised somehow. I think they are
:04:22. > :04:24.comfortable with the idea of restrictions on people turning up as
:04:25. > :04:30.of the deal but they don't want it to affect people already there. This
:04:31. > :04:35.French brouhaha, I think it has been exaggerated. The French do have some
:04:36. > :04:39.concern but it is in everyone's interest to look like it is a fight
:04:40. > :04:45.down to the wire. I think everything will be all right on the night. You
:04:46. > :04:51.see a deal in prospect, is this because European Union countries are
:04:52. > :04:57.aware of the risk of the UK voting to leave Europe? It is partly that
:04:58. > :05:04.but also, what they don't want to do is set a precedent of the UK Euro
:05:05. > :05:08.sceptics succeeding in leaving. It would be a damaging blow to have
:05:09. > :05:13.such a big country leave and most people like the idea of the UK as
:05:14. > :05:18.this country with great links to the US, being in the union. But they
:05:19. > :05:23.don't want to make it for anyone else to follow the UK off the cliff
:05:24. > :05:27.if British voters did decide to leave. They are making sure the UK
:05:28. > :05:31.can be accommodated and also that it will be tough on the UK if British
:05:32. > :05:37.voters do decide to leave. They will not make it an easy divorce. We'll
:05:38. > :05:43.David Cameron, even if he can agree with the government be able to claim
:05:44. > :05:48.a deal has been done by Friday, after all, the European Parliament
:05:49. > :05:55.has a role, so do the courts, it is all quite complex? Yes. I think
:05:56. > :06:00.David Cameron would be justified in saying there is a deal if 28 leaders
:06:01. > :06:03.agree to it. That does not mean something to change here or there
:06:04. > :06:08.when the Parliament goes through its processes. The point of having new
:06:09. > :06:12.Parliament President in the room and having those meetings today with the
:06:13. > :06:17.party leaders, is to make sure they will not be any surprises after the
:06:18. > :06:21.summit that wraps up on Friday. You could see some surprises in the
:06:22. > :06:26.room. Spain might throw out a strange request related to Gibraltar
:06:27. > :06:30.because the Prime Minister there is in a lot of domestic trouble and he
:06:31. > :06:34.might want to distract attention. The French have a lot of national
:06:35. > :06:40.pride and they want to stand up for that, the same with the Polish
:06:41. > :06:44.people. People buy and large agree on the large majority of what David
:06:45. > :06:48.Cameron is pushing for and they know it will be a lot easier to agree
:06:49. > :06:52.this deal Thursday night than it will be to go through the terrible
:06:53. > :06:57.process of negotiating for the UK to leave. How seriously should we take
:06:58. > :07:07.these warnings from some European capitals of a trade war or tariffs
:07:08. > :07:12.if the UK votes to leave? I don't think it would be a case of an
:07:13. > :07:17.all-out war. I think they would simply drag out the negotiations
:07:18. > :07:20.because what they don't want to do is encourage the Nationalists in
:07:21. > :07:24.their own countries and they don't want to reward the UK for leaving.
:07:25. > :07:30.It is not that they would issue it as a threat to British people but it
:07:31. > :07:33.would come across like this, I think, to many British audiences.
:07:34. > :07:38.They are simply saying there has to be a prize for putting the union
:07:39. > :07:44.through turmoil. OK, it is a democracy and if you want to leave,
:07:45. > :07:49.leave but we will not make it easy for you. We will bargain as hard as
:07:50. > :07:53.we can and say we do have a union and a market with participating in
:07:54. > :07:56.and there will be a price for Britain if they want to stay linked
:07:57. > :08:00.into the systems. Many thanks for that.
:08:01. > :08:03.If you believe the online opinion polls, this EU referendum will be
:08:04. > :08:09.a tight race - and could result in so-called Brexit.
:08:10. > :08:12.And key to the debate will be the impact on jobs and trade.
:08:13. > :08:18.With me now is the economist Professor David Bell.
:08:19. > :08:24.Thank you for joining us. I mentioned the opinion polls but you
:08:25. > :08:30.have been looking at what the bookies think, what can you draw
:08:31. > :08:35.from that? I looked at what the bookies thought before the Scottish
:08:36. > :08:39.referendum in 2014 and I am doing the same now with the Brexit poll
:08:40. > :08:43.and at the moment, although it has narrowed of it, its deluxe like a
:08:44. > :08:47.60% chance that we stay in full stop it has narrowed a bit but it is a
:08:48. > :08:53.much wider margin than you might think. Given what the opinion polls
:08:54. > :09:01.are saying. That is more emphatic than the opinion polls. The Scottish
:09:02. > :09:03.referendum said the problems of sifting truth from fiction amid all
:09:04. > :09:10.the claim and counterclaim is very difficult. Do we know what the
:09:11. > :09:15.economic impact would be on the UK and on Scotland if we leave the
:09:16. > :09:19.European Union? I think it is very difficult to predict what might
:09:20. > :09:23.happen in the future. I think we can build up and picture what has
:09:24. > :09:28.happened in the past compared to what might have happened had we not
:09:29. > :09:32.joined. Most of the evidence that suggests the UK has benefited from
:09:33. > :09:36.things like foreign direct investment. The UK is seen as a
:09:37. > :09:41.central hub for companies from outside Europe getting access to the
:09:42. > :09:48.European market. It is also benefiting from trade between
:09:49. > :09:53.different countries in subtle ways. Also the financial services sector
:09:54. > :09:57.has benefited a lot, London is now the dominant financial centre in the
:09:58. > :10:03.world. Partly because it has taken away trade from Europe but if we
:10:04. > :10:07.leave, do we lose all that? Do we lose the 3 million jobs that some
:10:08. > :10:13.are claiming are directly linked to membership of the EU? It is not
:10:14. > :10:18.obvious that we would lose all of the jobs but we might lose some of
:10:19. > :10:24.the dynamics that we have seen in the last ten years or so where it
:10:25. > :10:29.actually, in migration, from the rest of the EU, there are 180,000
:10:30. > :10:35.net migrants into the UK last year for stop that has helped build up
:10:36. > :10:43.the economy. It has effectively brought in a whole extra supply of
:10:44. > :10:47.quite skilled labour. David Cameron's negotiation, much of it
:10:48. > :10:56.has focused on that issue of in-work benefits for migrant workers. Is
:10:57. > :11:02.that central to the economic... Or is it pretty preferable? I think it
:11:03. > :11:05.is largely peripheral. Most EU migrants come into work. They may
:11:06. > :11:10.have had an adverse effect on the wages of young people, young native
:11:11. > :11:16.British people because a lot of them are better qualified than the native
:11:17. > :11:20.British people and that maybe has forced wages down. But mostly, they
:11:21. > :11:26.are working. They are not here to pick up benefits. I just wonder
:11:27. > :11:31.though, if the very fact they are working here, might be a bit of a
:11:32. > :11:34.problem for those who want to remain in the European Union. We know many
:11:35. > :11:38.voters are squeamish about immigration. What are the chances of
:11:39. > :11:44.that issue dominating this referendum? I think it good and it
:11:45. > :11:47.might be a bit geographically specific because you see is
:11:48. > :11:54.certainly in some parts of England, public services are being put under
:11:55. > :12:01.a lot of pressure by migrants coming in, the need to have Polish language
:12:02. > :12:06.or Latvian or Lithuanian or whatever. I think people are quite
:12:07. > :12:09.aware of that and see that as a negative. That may propel certain
:12:10. > :12:16.parts of the country towards a leave vote. In amongst all this would be
:12:17. > :12:23.another issue, those campaigning to leave the EU say that would mean red
:12:24. > :12:29.tape would be cut, that silly rules in Brussels about banning straight
:12:30. > :12:35.bananas and the like, would go. Do they have a point? One person's
:12:36. > :12:40.regulation is another one's advantage at work. For example,
:12:41. > :12:47.paternity leave. There are two sides to every story. Yes, the EU can be a
:12:48. > :12:52.bit cumbersome when it comes to imposing regulations but we don't
:12:53. > :12:55.want to move into a world where there are no regulations. The UK
:12:56. > :13:00.will impose its own. Maybe they will be better. Does that offset the
:13:01. > :13:07.trade and other advantages that come from in part of this massive open
:13:08. > :13:11.market? We talk about it being a big market but it is pretty stagnant,
:13:12. > :13:14.not growing very well. What you think of the argument that we should
:13:15. > :13:18.be looking abroad, to the growing economies and the rest of the world
:13:19. > :13:47.for our trade and not focused so much on Europe? It is true that the
:13:48. > :13:55.European economy is doing pretty badly but there is nothing stopping
:13:56. > :13:59.us from orienting our trade to the rest of the world. I don't find that
:14:00. > :14:05.a terribly strong argument. Nothing stopping us, is it in Asher? It is a
:14:06. > :14:08.bit but the Germans seem to manage to reorientate their trade towards
:14:09. > :14:10.other parts of the world. I think the truth is Britain is not very
:14:11. > :14:13.good at getting into export markets. There we must leave it.
:14:14. > :14:16.If you drive a car, then you'll be well aware that fuel prices have
:14:17. > :14:20.But it's nothing compared to the value of oil itself.
:14:21. > :14:25.That's plummeted, losing 70% of its value, in just 18 months.
:14:26. > :14:28.It is due in part to the massive increase in world production.
:14:29. > :14:33.But today, Russia and Saudi Arabia seemed to acknowledge the price
:14:34. > :14:39.They've agreed to freeze oil output - at January's production levels.
:14:40. > :14:41.So does this mean the price will rise once more?
:14:42. > :14:45.And could it help Scotland's beleaguered North Sea industry?
:14:46. > :14:47.Earlier tonight I spoke to the oil economist,
:14:48. > :15:05.What do you make of this deal? Not much, to be honest. It might lead to
:15:06. > :15:08.a small increase in world oil prices but from a Scottish perspective I
:15:09. > :15:16.don't think it will make much difference. It relies not just on
:15:17. > :15:19.the signatories to the deal keeping to their bargain but other countries
:15:20. > :15:24.signing up to it as well and there is no sign of anyone agreeing to cut
:15:25. > :15:36.production. Is that what Scotland is looking for? The main reason prices
:15:37. > :15:44.have collapsed is a surplus of supply, particularly the growth of
:15:45. > :15:47.shale in the USA. At the moment there are 2 million barrels being
:15:48. > :15:55.produced more than are being consumed. To get prices back up, I
:15:56. > :16:00.don't think they will ever go up to $100 in the near future. To get them
:16:01. > :16:05.up substantially it means cuts. Another complication is following
:16:06. > :16:19.the decision to remove sanctions against Iran, they will now produce
:16:20. > :16:29.another a few million barrels of oil a day. Huge amounts on the market.
:16:30. > :16:35.It means the price is sitting there. What price does it need to return to
:16:36. > :16:49.for the North Sea oil industry to turn a profit again. We had prices
:16:50. > :16:56.of a peak of 115 a barrel. Some of the new developments we have had,
:16:57. > :17:02.specifically the gas which started production to the west of Shetland,
:17:03. > :17:07.they were invested in because of the high price. These developments would
:17:08. > :17:16.never have gone ahead at the present level. Personally, I think unless we
:17:17. > :17:24.get a price going back up to $75 there will be very little investment
:17:25. > :17:34.in the North Sea. What are the prospects of the price ever
:17:35. > :17:42.returning to those levels? Very little. There is a sophisticated
:17:43. > :17:48.futures market, predicting a rise to $60 by 2020. For Saudi Arabia and
:17:49. > :17:57.the Russian Federation, they might be acceptable, but not in the North
:17:58. > :18:04.Sea. I think if we have a few years of relatively low prices we will see
:18:05. > :18:09.relatively little new investment, and a lot of the existing fuel being
:18:10. > :18:18.decommissioned. Does it spell the end for North Sea oil? Another field
:18:19. > :18:23.came on stream a few days ago, those fields will produce for another 20
:18:24. > :18:29.years. We will have an industry for another 25 years but it will
:18:30. > :18:36.inevitably be on a much smaller scale and much less profitable than
:18:37. > :18:39.the current time. Much less tax revenues for the Scottish and UK
:18:40. > :18:42.governments. They are we must leave it. Thank you for joining us.
:18:43. > :18:45.Some interesting data has been published today by the financial
:18:46. > :18:50.It says the average cost of raising your child to the age
:18:51. > :18:57.In Scotland the cost is slightly lower, but still works out at tens
:18:58. > :19:02.of thousands more than the average cost of a house here.
:19:03. > :19:04.Aileen Clarke has been looking at the figures,
:19:05. > :19:07.and what burns up much of the cash will come as no surprise to most
:19:08. > :19:24.At this play centre parents had readily paid to get out of the rain.
:19:25. > :19:35.The cost of an afternoon's fun is just one more expense. This is the
:19:36. > :19:45.latest estimate for what it will cost you before that child reaches
:19:46. > :19:51.the age of 21. It is more expensive than if you were living in Wales.
:19:52. > :19:57.The cost can be a driver in how big a family to have but it still takes
:19:58. > :20:04.a bit of getting used to. Are you glad you stopped at two? When I see
:20:05. > :20:10.those figures, yes. Childcare is so expensive. We had the boys in Fort
:20:11. > :20:20.two days a week in Dundee. That was out with the help of the Council,
:20:21. > :20:25.?600 for two days. Most parents cannot afford it. The cost is very
:20:26. > :20:28.expensive and people are aware of that so they tend to factor it into
:20:29. > :20:35.the number of children that they have. It depends on the support
:20:36. > :20:43.network as well. If people have got family. It might also have an impact
:20:44. > :20:54.on what career people choose. Is it worth your money actually working?
:20:55. > :21:03.So it was not a surprise that the early years are expensive. The ages
:21:04. > :21:05.of 1-5 seem to be very expensive. If we look at childcare and
:21:06. > :21:42.baby-sitting then we look at childcare and
:21:43. > :21:51.quite enjoy it. It gives us a chance to see our grandson. We do it
:21:52. > :21:57.because my son can work at irregular times, my daughter-in-law is a nurse
:21:58. > :22:02.and she works 12 hour shifts, therefore the early start and late
:22:03. > :22:06.finish does not help getting childcare. I am here looking after
:22:07. > :23:39.my nieces. My brother childcare. I am here looking after
:23:40. > :23:44.and suits what they do. We've got to speak more about the kind of
:23:45. > :23:50.provision, affordability, what people are prepared to pay for it to
:23:51. > :23:57.get good childcare and more importantly, it is an economic issue
:23:58. > :24:00.more so than before. It is approved out of poverty for parents, they can
:24:01. > :24:09.get to work and provide for their families. It is a serious issue.
:24:10. > :24:14.There has been quite a focus from the parties on early years childcare
:24:15. > :24:22.but what that highlights is parents are paying a lot for childcare right
:24:23. > :24:34.through a child's school years. What do you make of that? Are these the
:24:35. > :24:42.sort of hours that schools should be operating? It is something they need
:24:43. > :24:47.to look at, there are after-school clubs that will try to fit in with
:24:48. > :24:51.working lives but I think the issue of childcare is very big. It will
:24:52. > :25:00.certainly not go away. Demand is going to get even more. The
:25:01. > :25:05.government is trying to bring 30 hours of childcare by 2020. But it
:25:06. > :25:08.is a bit like the NHS, the demand will almost be infinite. The more
:25:09. > :25:19.that you provide the more people will want. If you want to provide 30
:25:20. > :25:24.hours people will want 60 hours. Only so much money is available and
:25:25. > :25:29.people will need to make some sort of contribution. Finding the balance
:25:30. > :25:32.is the difficult bit. Do we need to think in terms of 52 weeks a year
:25:33. > :25:39.instead of thinking about the school terms. I wonder whether we need to
:25:40. > :25:45.start thinking about the education system is being more supportive of
:25:46. > :25:52.childcare across the year. That's a difficult one. It is! Yellow mac you
:25:53. > :25:55.will know every time there is an in-service day you will think about
:25:56. > :26:00.what you're going to do with your child. What needs to happen is more
:26:01. > :26:06.thinking around the type of provision of childcare to fit with
:26:07. > :26:13.working lives and education. I think that is the priority. It could mean
:26:14. > :26:18.we are going to have a debate about what people are prepared to pay into
:26:19. > :26:22.the system so that we can have a childcare system that is fit for the
:26:23. > :26:28.21st century, because it is about people going to work, and being
:26:29. > :26:33.looked after by professionals. That is one of the reason costs have gone
:26:34. > :26:39.up, it is a profession and it was not always like that. We've got to
:26:40. > :26:43.treat workers properly, give them the right terms and conditions.
:26:44. > :26:48.There is a social justice issue because middle-class parents can
:26:49. > :26:54.afford provision. It is more difficult for folk on lower wages.
:26:55. > :27:00.There is an issue but the one thing about childcare is if you can
:27:01. > :27:04.provide it you are enabling parents to go back to work, they will make a
:27:05. > :27:08.contribution in terms of tax and that will help to pay for the
:27:09. > :27:14.childcare. There is a circular pattern to the funding of it. But
:27:15. > :27:23.people look at Scandinavia as an example. They do have fantastic
:27:24. > :27:27.provision. But then taxation is very high in Scandinavia and that is a
:27:28. > :27:30.political question. People need to decide what they want and if they
:27:31. > :27:39.are prepared to pay the taxes to fund that. Let's move to Europe.
:27:40. > :27:47.There could be a referendum at the end of this week. The debate is
:27:48. > :27:56.widening. Emma Thompson has weighed in saying it would be mad if the UK
:27:57. > :28:04.voted to leave the European Union. I am living in Europe, a little corner
:28:05. > :28:13.of Europe, and I feel European even though I live in Great Britain. In
:28:14. > :28:22.Scotland. So I will vote to stay in Europe. Some might say that is a
:28:23. > :28:28.bizarre form of words. It might be seen as a gift to those who want to
:28:29. > :28:33.leave. It was Emma Thompson in her acting mode. She said Britain was a
:28:34. > :28:41.cake filled country. When celebrities come out, some people
:28:42. > :28:45.can relate to that because they feel European, but at the end of the day,
:28:46. > :28:57.I'm not sure how influential it is when something like that happens, as
:28:58. > :29:02.serious as it is. I wonder what we can expect. The Scottish referendum
:29:03. > :29:08.was pretty edgy at times. What will a European referendum be like? At
:29:09. > :29:14.the moment from what we've seen it is going to bore us to death. I
:29:15. > :29:18.think this intervention has a lot going for it in the sense that at
:29:19. > :29:29.last somebody has brought some colour to it. Her quote was
:29:30. > :29:36.captivating. She is an interesting celebrity. I suspect both sides will
:29:37. > :29:41.be working together to get more celebrities just to brighten it up
:29:42. > :29:50.because let us be honest. Neither of the campaigns have done that. There
:29:51. > :29:51.we must end it. That is it for tonight. Hope you can catch is
:29:52. > :30:01.tomorrow night. Same time. Goodbye. I've had a message from China,
:30:02. > :30:06.from my birth mother.