:00:00. > :00:00.or a key to growing Scotland's economy?
:00:00. > :00:26.Just who will benefit from slashing Air Passenger Duty?
:00:27. > :00:35.whether Scotland should slash Air Passenger Duty.
:00:36. > :00:36.We'll debate whether it will fly.
:00:37. > :00:38.Mental health campaigner Alistair Campbell tells us he's "shocked"
:00:39. > :00:43.by the number of rough sleepers he's seen here.
:00:44. > :00:46.And we ask why Scotland has one of the highest rates in western Europe
:00:47. > :00:58.for imprisonment AND community supervision?
:00:59. > :01:01.The airline easyJet says it expects to grow its Scottish business by 30%
:01:02. > :01:06.The Scottish Government is consulting on plans to cut
:01:07. > :01:11.That would obviously be good news for the travel industry
:01:12. > :01:17.and for holidaymakers but what about the environment?
:01:18. > :01:20.And how will it help those on the lowest incomes,
:01:21. > :01:22.who could never contemplate a holiday in the sun anyway?
:01:23. > :01:26.We'll discuss all that in a moment. But first, here's Suzanne Allan.
:01:27. > :01:37.Whether it is Benidorm or Bali, booking a holiday can be expensive.
:01:38. > :01:40.Under these proposals, if you're jetting off somewhere nice, it could
:01:41. > :01:47.be a little bit cheaper. The Scottish Government is intended to
:01:48. > :01:51.cut Air Passenger Duty by 50%. This travel agent in Edinburgh is
:01:52. > :01:55.doubtful that it will make much difference to holiday-makers. I
:01:56. > :02:00.don't think it will make much difference to booking or not booking
:02:01. > :02:04.a holiday. For a family going to Florida they might be playing
:02:05. > :02:08.somewhere in the region of ?50 and Air Passenger Duty. In the scale of
:02:09. > :02:14.things, I don't bow if it would stop them going. This lady who has just
:02:15. > :02:18.put a Mediterranean cruise would be grateful for any saving. It would be
:02:19. > :02:22.nice if something was taken off it. It might not stop me going, but I
:02:23. > :02:26.would be happy with the reduction and I would spend it on something
:02:27. > :02:31.else. How much you pay depends on where you are sitting on a plane and
:02:32. > :02:36.how far you are travelling. Air Passenger Duty starts at ?13 and the
:02:37. > :02:41.rates go up to ?146. The Scottish Government wants to reduce this by
:02:42. > :02:46.50%. If it happens it will not go through and be introduced until
:02:47. > :02:50.2018. It is not just about holiday-makers. The government hopes
:02:51. > :02:53.the economy will take off, too. What the Scottish Government wants to do
:02:54. > :02:59.is reduce Air Passenger Duty with the specific objective of improving
:03:00. > :03:03.the economic performance of Scotland including our competitiveness and
:03:04. > :03:06.creating employment within Scotland. Last year, Edinburgh Airport
:03:07. > :03:10.published a report that claimed that a reduction would bring in ?200
:03:11. > :03:16.million of economic benefits for Scotland, every year. You cannot
:03:17. > :03:20.have too much success. We need to get people in here, we need to get
:03:21. > :03:24.airlines anyone connects content of the rest of the World, and then we
:03:25. > :03:27.can take advantage of that. Critics say that it runs counter to the
:03:28. > :03:32.Scottish Government's ambitious climate change targets. At a time
:03:33. > :03:37.when climate emissions from air transport are increasing what we are
:03:38. > :03:42.getting is a proposal to reduce tax on that form of transport, when we
:03:43. > :03:47.know already that it has a very favourable tax regime. South of the
:03:48. > :03:50.border, there are concerns, too. The Scottish Government is firming up on
:03:51. > :03:55.what their plans are. Why they are doing this is to give Scotland a
:03:56. > :03:57.competitive advantage over their competitors, and their competitors
:03:58. > :04:02.are places like the north-east. So be want a level playing field. There
:04:03. > :04:07.is a view that this is a move that will benefit airlines and the
:04:08. > :04:13.well-off who travel through quickly. It isn't a given that a cut in duty
:04:14. > :04:17.will mean an economic boost? It might do. It might increase the
:04:18. > :04:19.number of tourists coming into Scotland and the amount of business
:04:20. > :04:24.traffic there is because it will be that much cheaper. We know that
:04:25. > :04:29.Inverness does not pay APD and, compared with for example, Edinburgh
:04:30. > :04:35.Airport, it has not performed all that well in the last six or seven
:04:36. > :04:41.years. The Scottish Government is going to have to make decisions that
:04:42. > :04:47.are risks, because it cannot know the knock-on effects on income tax,
:04:48. > :04:51.on VAT and so on if it changes Air Passenger Duty, so we are moving
:04:52. > :04:55.into a new environment where risk is part of the equation. This couple
:04:56. > :05:00.have just booked to go to Australia, so any changes will not affect them,
:05:01. > :05:03.but come the budget on Wednesday, who knows what the Chancellor,
:05:04. > :05:06.George Osborne, may have up his sleeve?
:05:07. > :05:15.Suzanne Allan reporting. Listening to that here in the studio is the
:05:16. > :05:18.Cabinet Secretary for Infrastructure and Investment, Keith Brown, and in
:05:19. > :05:20.our Aberdeen studio, for Scottish Labour, Lewis Macdonald
:05:21. > :05:22.who sits on the Economy, Energy Tourism Committee.
:05:23. > :05:28.I can see how this tax cut would help people who want to go on
:05:29. > :05:33.holiday, but what about the protest, how will it benefit them? If you can
:05:34. > :05:39.get an increase in tax receipts because of the increase in economic
:05:40. > :05:41.activity, this will benefit bed-and-breakfast, visitor
:05:42. > :05:45.attractions, small concerns right across Scotland. This is about
:05:46. > :05:50.generating more economic activity, and if we can do that, everybody
:05:51. > :05:54.benefits. But it is a big if according to David Bell, in the
:05:55. > :05:59.package. David Bell said that we will learn more as we go through. It
:06:00. > :06:03.is always the case, you have to take some of these things, a decision
:06:04. > :06:07.which you think is right and then you find the full consequences in
:06:08. > :06:12.the course of time. You accept that it is a big unknown. Any change in
:06:13. > :06:16.taxation is an unknown. We cannot tell what the consequences may be.
:06:17. > :06:20.The evidence we have seen so far suggests a good increase in economic
:06:21. > :06:26.activity, this is what Scotland is crying out for, more jobs and more
:06:27. > :06:33.economic activity across Scotland. Why would labour be against this?
:06:34. > :06:37.Look what the SNP want to do, they want to cut taxes. And then when you
:06:38. > :06:43.say what is the consequence of top cutting taxes, they say that it will
:06:44. > :06:48.increase the tax income. No, it doesn't. That doesn't follow at all.
:06:49. > :06:51.Keith is being optimistic, if I can put it that way when he says that by
:06:52. > :06:58.cutting the tax rate you can increase tax income. We don't know
:06:59. > :07:01.the consequences of that decision, except that it takes hundreds of
:07:02. > :07:05.millions of pounds out of the Scottish Government budget
:07:06. > :07:08.straightaway. He has the backing of the Scottish Chambers of Commerce to
:07:09. > :07:12.say that Air Passenger Duty is a barrier to international trade, that
:07:13. > :07:17.this move will boost to result and exports and competitiveness. It is
:07:18. > :07:23.inevitable that tax cuts will attract support from some quarters.
:07:24. > :07:26.The question, I think, that people have to ask in the run-up to the
:07:27. > :07:31.Scottish elections is, do we want to cut taxes on air traffic or do we
:07:32. > :07:34.want to try and find ways to spend the money that that tax brings in
:07:35. > :07:42.more effectively than is being done so far? We would certainly, rather
:07:43. > :07:44.than take 150 million, I think is planned, out of the Scottish
:07:45. > :07:48.Government revenue by cutting the tax, we would rather spend that
:07:49. > :07:52.money on supporting young people to get into the housing market. We
:07:53. > :07:56.think that is better for the economy overall. There are lots of ways you
:07:57. > :08:00.can help the economy. The way we would choose to do it is by helping
:08:01. > :08:03.the world less well-off to boost their position in the economy and
:08:04. > :08:08.boost their spending power, and get young people into housing, helping
:08:09. > :08:14.business as well as those young people. You have the support of the
:08:15. > :08:18.right of centre taxpayers are lines. It does seem like an odd priority
:08:19. > :08:22.for a party that is positioning itself as anti-austerity. Not at
:08:23. > :08:26.all. This will increase economic activity and tax receipts. What is
:08:27. > :08:31.interesting is the position of the Labour Party. They argued in this
:08:32. > :08:35.myth commission that Scotland should have these powers. They flip flop
:08:36. > :08:39.back and forward as to what they would do with it. They supported the
:08:40. > :08:43.cuts in Northern Ireland. I don't know what their particular problem
:08:44. > :08:47.is in Scotland. These powers are coming to us in Scotland. The Labour
:08:48. > :08:52.Party has argued for them. It is time to use them productively for
:08:53. > :08:55.the people of Scotland. This the highest packs of its kind in the
:08:56. > :08:59.world and is a punitive tax on business in Scotland. Lewis
:09:00. > :09:04.Macdonald, your party is saying that it is the wrong cut at the wrong
:09:05. > :09:09.time. But according to our survey, a majority of Labour MPs would support
:09:10. > :09:15.cut across the UK in Air Passenger Duty. There is a view among MPs that
:09:16. > :09:18.Air Passenger Duty should not be a competition between different parts
:09:19. > :09:24.of the UK. You do not want the race to the bottom in Air Passenger Duty
:09:25. > :09:30.any more than we do in corporation tax. All that does is put a premium
:09:31. > :09:34.on low tax and therefore on Lupe and therefore a low skills in the
:09:35. > :09:39.economy. We want to strengthen the economy and the way you do that is
:09:40. > :09:45.not by cutting taxes. -- on low-paid. What we are further from
:09:46. > :09:49.Keith Brown is simply an assertion that if you cut taxes it is bound to
:09:50. > :09:53.boost economic activity. That does not follow at all. And there are
:09:54. > :09:58.other ways to boost economic activity not least by helping young
:09:59. > :10:07.people to get onto the housing market. The Chancellor could abolish
:10:08. > :10:11.the tax across the UK which would negate any competitive advantage
:10:12. > :10:14.that Scotland has. It is not just the Chambers of Commerce, it is the
:10:15. > :10:17.airports and airlines, the plans they would put into place to
:10:18. > :10:22.increase ruse which cut out the need for interim flights, which are the
:10:23. > :10:26.most environmentally damaging. People realise that this is going to
:10:27. > :10:30.produce benefits. If the Chancellor does this, where does that leave the
:10:31. > :10:33.likes of the Labour Party in Scotland? Will they change their
:10:34. > :10:36.mind again? We are doing this because we are the government of
:10:37. > :10:39.Scotland and this is our intention to do this. If the UK Government
:10:40. > :10:43.decides to do something similar, because we have led the way, then
:10:44. > :10:49.that is their decision. The good news is, Keith, there is an election
:10:50. > :10:50.coming up, so who becomes the next government of Scotland remains to be
:10:51. > :10:54.seen. I am looking forward to it. Labour's former spin doctor -
:10:55. > :10:56.and prolific Tweeter - And earlier on social media
:10:57. > :11:00.he noted his "shock" at the number of rough sleepers
:11:01. > :11:02.on Scotland's streets. I'll be speaking to him
:11:03. > :11:04.in a moment but Although the number of homeless
:11:05. > :11:09.people in Scotland has been going down, rough sleeping
:11:10. > :11:16.remains stubbornly high. Earlier today we spoke to David
:11:17. > :11:19.Duke, a former rough sleeper who founded the homeless charity
:11:20. > :11:28.Street Soccer Scotland. Street Soccer Scotland is a social
:11:29. > :11:32.enterprise that uses football to engage with people who have gone
:11:33. > :11:37.through homelessness, mental health issues, addiction, and we bring that
:11:38. > :11:42.together to combat isolation and give them something positive to do,
:11:43. > :11:44.being part of sport and building a network for themselves, building
:11:45. > :11:54.friendships and relationships. We are getting busier. We are engaging
:11:55. > :11:58.over 1000 people every week, adults and in a young person's project, so
:11:59. > :12:07.be actually getting busier. Is homelessness increasing? I think,
:12:08. > :12:10.ever since I wrote my first funding application, the figures were
:12:11. > :12:16.between 30,000 - 30 5000. I don't think it has changed. Homelessness
:12:17. > :12:19.and poverty in general is a by-product of many social problems
:12:20. > :12:25.that come with it, addiction, mental health, you know? Mental health will
:12:26. > :12:30.be there for people, because you can imagine how stressful situation,
:12:31. > :12:35.sleeping here in Princes Street, going to bed at night, not going to
:12:36. > :12:38.bed at night, sleeping with one eye open, not knowing where he will
:12:39. > :12:43.sleep the next night, that would cause anybody to be stressed and
:12:44. > :12:47.have a negative impact on mental health. I was a young man and I did
:12:48. > :12:53.not know that homeless shelters existed. I had seen it on TV but I
:12:54. > :12:57.did not know that you could go to Glasgow City Council and represent
:12:58. > :13:01.yourself as homeless. You then get caught in a situation which is
:13:02. > :13:08.scary, you don't know where to turn. I will spoke to a sleek -- Street
:13:09. > :13:14.worker who gave me good advice. It took good advice from charities and
:13:15. > :13:17.aid services in the west of Scotland who actually give you the
:13:18. > :13:21.confidence, the structure, the belief that you can actually do
:13:22. > :13:28.something and, obviously, football, for me, was a massive part of it.
:13:29. > :13:30.And that is what we have seen today. -- football was a massive part of
:13:31. > :13:32.it. Well, listening to that
:13:33. > :13:33.was Alistair Campbell, who's a long-time campaigner
:13:34. > :13:41.on mental health issues. The vast majority of rough sleepers
:13:42. > :13:46.have severe mental health problems. Why does it seem to be so hard to
:13:47. > :13:53.help people with these problems? I am not sure that they actually are
:13:54. > :13:58.being held. And here and in England, were walking by on the other side.
:13:59. > :14:01.The Conservatives in London will often say, these are the tough cases
:14:02. > :14:05.and there is nothing we can do, and if you try and help them, they will
:14:06. > :14:12.stay there. We showed as a Labour government at Westminster, a
:14:13. > :14:18.proactive strategy to give them access to the services they need. It
:14:19. > :14:21.almost became a thing of the past. I am appalled, because there seems to
:14:22. > :14:26.be no outrage at the fact that as you are going through, not just big
:14:27. > :14:30.cities but smaller towns as well, you are seen it everywhere, there is
:14:31. > :14:37.a return. The Conservative government in England, they kind of
:14:38. > :14:42.believe in Nice arrival of the fittest and all that stuff, and that
:14:43. > :14:46.is a price worth paying for getting the economy going but here, you have
:14:47. > :14:51.a government that project itself as being very progressive. I have been
:14:52. > :14:54.shot from being up here in the last few days.
:14:55. > :15:02.What was your impression? In Edinburgh, I was shocked about how
:15:03. > :15:05.many people I saw on the street. One of my sons does all the work with
:15:06. > :15:11.homeless people and talk to them and very quickly you find that
:15:12. > :15:18.mental-health will be an issue. It's like we're walking past people who,
:15:19. > :15:23.if it was physical health we were talking about... If we were talking
:15:24. > :15:26.about car crashes, people having gone through the windscreen lying on
:15:27. > :15:30.the ground, I wish there was a little bit more outrage about it,
:15:31. > :15:36.the SNP Government has been in Government for nine years now. They
:15:37. > :15:40.talk about a good game and what they've done in relation to housing
:15:41. > :15:45.and homelessness... Homelessness has gone down overall. I think when you
:15:46. > :15:51.see the people on the streets, that we are beginning to see now, I just
:15:52. > :15:55.think that this is an issue... I know elections are always about the
:15:56. > :15:59.economy and health and education, but it really do think that, not
:16:00. > :16:04.just housing, but homelessness and in particular this... Because this
:16:05. > :16:09.really rectal sent something, you cannot have a civilized society and
:16:10. > :16:13.we'll go to bed tonight and there are lots of people out there who
:16:14. > :16:16.just do not have the support, do not have the services they need to get
:16:17. > :16:20.off this rate. -- it really represents a something. We have not
:16:21. > :16:26.really heard any of the party so far talking about rough sleeping. I know
:16:27. > :16:30.you have been up talking to lick not helping one MSP in his reelection.
:16:31. > :16:37.Is it something Scottish Labour should take on board as well? Look,
:16:38. > :16:41.if... The election is about public services, about crime, transport,
:16:42. > :16:46.all of that, understood. But I do think that the... I feel very
:16:47. > :16:49.strongly that both in Westminster and Holly Ridge, we've got
:16:50. > :16:54.governments that talk the about mental health and I just think more
:16:55. > :17:01.has to be done and I think what we are talking about here, we all do
:17:02. > :17:06.it, we all see people, walk by them, that is not just us as individuals,
:17:07. > :17:10.we are walking by some of the most vulnerable people and we have got to
:17:11. > :17:16.do more to help them. And the reason you are here obviously is to support
:17:17. > :17:20.a reelection of one MSP. I know you like to tweet, someone tweeted about
:17:21. > :17:25.you coming here, I like him but Scottish heats new Labour. Do you
:17:26. > :17:31.think your presence will be helpful for Scottish Labour? I think that
:17:32. > :17:37.elections are about millions of individual peoples making decisions.
:17:38. > :17:41.But the Tony Blair legacy is toxic stuff. If you had been at the
:17:42. > :17:44.meeting I was at today, and indeed at the school of is that earlier
:17:45. > :17:50.were several people, I did a book signing at the end of it at her
:17:51. > :17:56.school, fantastic school, and I was... People came up to me actually
:17:57. > :17:58.saying, I wish you guys were back. It's complicated. It's complicated!
:17:59. > :18:03.I don't care whether people think I'm making it... I know Ken
:18:04. > :18:08.Mackintosh, I think is a really great guy, I've known him for years,
:18:09. > :18:12.I've known him for years and years and years, I want to support him.
:18:13. > :18:15.What advice would you give to Scottish Labour? I think Scottish
:18:16. > :18:23.Labour has done a very good thing in getting a young energetic, vibrant
:18:24. > :18:26.leader who I really like. But still hasn't naked breakthrough in the
:18:27. > :18:30.polls for them. It is tough in this country at the moment because the
:18:31. > :18:35.SNP have been... They are pretty rampant. But I do think, I watched
:18:36. > :18:39.Nicola Sturgeon's speech at the Beacon I thought it was a really
:18:40. > :18:41.interesting that... Her top line, as far as I could work out, we are
:18:42. > :18:47.going to have another go independence. I thought that didn't
:18:48. > :18:50.stack up to me as a big thing for an election campaign coming up. Where's
:18:51. > :18:55.the big vision for the future? Eber have got a good leader, I really
:18:56. > :19:01.like Kezia Dugdale, but nobody should pretend Labour Party is in a
:19:02. > :19:03.strong position. But not long ago, people thought Labour were going to
:19:04. > :19:09.be in power in Scotland forever, it went, things can change. I think the
:19:10. > :19:11.shine will come off of the SNP, but Labour really have to go for it.
:19:12. > :19:13.There we must leave it. Thank you. The number of Scots in prison
:19:14. > :19:16.or under criminal justice supervision in the community has
:19:17. > :19:19.risen fourfold since the 1970s. That's even though crime has fallen
:19:20. > :19:21.over the same period. A new European study has found that
:19:22. > :19:24.Scotland has one of the highest rates in western Europe,
:19:25. > :19:26.both for community supervision In the mid '70s, fewer than 3,000
:19:27. > :19:34.people were under supervision. At the same time, 5,000
:19:35. > :19:38.people were in jail. By 2013/14, around 24,000 people
:19:39. > :19:41.were under supervision. Yet the prison population had also
:19:42. > :19:46.risen to just under 8,000. Just before we came on air,
:19:47. > :19:55.I spoke to Fergus McNeill, Professor of Criminology
:19:56. > :19:57.at Glasgow University, I began by asking him why we're
:19:58. > :20:11.seeing so many more people penalised There are a number of factors which
:20:12. > :20:16.we think explain it, the first is really broad social change. With
:20:17. > :20:22.live and more insecure times arguably and the theory goes that
:20:23. > :20:26.that produces a greater degree of punitiveness, fearfulness, maybe
:20:27. > :20:29.less willingness to extend a degree of sympathy to people who are in
:20:30. > :20:36.more difficult and challenging circumstances. And so sociologists
:20:37. > :20:42.suggest that has grown the rise in prison rates in society all over the
:20:43. > :20:46.western world. I guess people might have thought, even if community
:20:47. > :20:48.supervision is a good thing, the number of jail sentences would've
:20:49. > :20:53.gone down, but that hasn't been the case?
:20:54. > :20:55.No, the problem is that both have arisen simultaneously and indeed
:20:56. > :20:59.that has been the case indeed in many places across the Western
:21:00. > :21:03.world, so we now have unprecedented numbers of people under control of
:21:04. > :21:06.the penal system in these two different ways. Rather then
:21:07. > :21:09.supervision in the community diverging people from prison, it
:21:10. > :21:15.seems as if we've drawn people into the criminal justice system, under
:21:16. > :21:19.supervision, people who might've been dealt with through financial
:21:20. > :21:23.penalties are lesser sections. There's been a dramatic decrease in
:21:24. > :21:29.the use of fines, it has that been because they didn't actually work?
:21:30. > :21:34.What is it when a fine works? Of a fine is paid, it works. It measures
:21:35. > :21:39.the pain that the offence has caused and it set the level of sanction
:21:40. > :21:44.that the offender must satisfy. They often were paid, were they? There
:21:45. > :21:51.were the problem with the nonpayment of fines and that was leading to the
:21:52. > :21:58.innovation to the something came about as calm in the 1990s. If you
:21:59. > :22:01.were most marginalised and economically are being sucked into
:22:02. > :22:06.the criminal justice system and they are already on poverty line incomes,
:22:07. > :22:10.then it is difficult to impose financial sections and those to be
:22:11. > :22:13.successful within this population. We have seen something like an
:22:14. > :22:20.eightfold increase in the number of community supervision sentences of
:22:21. > :22:24.various types since the mid-70s, if they community sentences, isn't that
:22:25. > :22:30.a good thing? It is a good thing. If they are displacing prison
:22:31. > :22:34.sentences. If the net amount to penal control is being held down in
:22:35. > :22:38.is proportionate to the amount of harm and suffering that offending is
:22:39. > :22:43.causing, there would be no problem. You do not think that is the case?
:22:44. > :22:47.No, I think that crime is falling, the number of cases becoming the for
:22:48. > :22:50.the courts is falling, but the number of people being swept into
:22:51. > :22:54.the system up in the control is rising. That is inefficient because
:22:55. > :23:00.the sanctions cost is significant about the money to administer. It is
:23:01. > :23:03.not necessarily effective unless the sanctions art administered carefully
:23:04. > :23:10.and properly. The more you draw into the systems, the harder harder it is
:23:11. > :23:13.to emitters these systems well. You could have overcrowding in the
:23:14. > :23:16.community, as he could have overcrowding in the presence.
:23:17. > :23:19.Scotland has one of the highest rates for both for the community
:23:20. > :23:23.service sentences and imprisonment in the Western world. Is that a
:23:24. > :23:27.concern to you? It is. I think we need to look very carefully at
:23:28. > :23:30.whether the sanctions are being imposed proportionately and whether
:23:31. > :23:35.there aren't further opportunities for upstream diversions. Again, a
:23:36. > :23:39.broad point that would be made by sociologists on punishment is that
:23:40. > :23:43.we are disinfecting in welfare and them paying prices in the penal
:23:44. > :23:47.system. It would be much more sensible to take money out of the
:23:48. > :23:52.penal system and sped on the right forms are penal... And to support
:23:53. > :23:56.people who have fallen into difficult lifestyles to get out of
:23:57. > :23:57.that. Professor Fergus McNeill, thank you.
:23:58. > :24:00.And with me this evening to look at some of the other top stories
:24:01. > :24:02.this evening is David Pratt, contributing Foreign Editor
:24:03. > :24:04.of the Sunday Herald, and Lynsey Bews from
:24:05. > :24:14.Welcome to both of you. Let's start with that story, the Russian
:24:15. > :24:18.president Vladimir Putin has ordered his military to start withdrawing
:24:19. > :24:21.the main part of his forces from Syria from Tuesday. It's a bit of a
:24:22. > :24:25.surprise move, this, isn't it, David?
:24:26. > :24:29.It is a surprise, I think it caught a lot of people out in many ways,
:24:30. > :24:31.but some of the diplomatic groundwork clearly was building up
:24:32. > :24:35.to that, there is the question about that. The reason why it should
:24:36. > :24:38.happen at this precise moment, we have the talks ongoing in Geneva and
:24:39. > :24:42.I can from Moscow's perspective, they clearly think that they have
:24:43. > :24:45.got something of the upper hand on the ground they have consolidated
:24:46. > :24:50.the Damascus regime, they have bought time for President Assad. So
:24:51. > :24:54.it's a good moment to make this new. He is saying that they have largely
:24:55. > :24:59.achieved their objectives. Have they? It depends on who you are and
:25:00. > :25:03.what you think those objectives actually are. Militarily, there is a
:25:04. > :25:06.question that they have turned, not the tables, but they have certainly
:25:07. > :25:11.changed the dynamics on the grounds on the battlefields, there's
:25:12. > :25:14.question. They have correspondingly impacted on the diplomatic situation
:25:15. > :25:17.quite a bit. They firmly believe that President Assad is now going to
:25:18. > :25:23.survive in some shape or form. They wouldn't be leaving otherwise. I
:25:24. > :25:27.mean, they have a long relationship, Syria has been Moscow's ally for a
:25:28. > :25:31.long time. They're not going to abandon now. So are we seeing a
:25:32. > :25:34.turning point here now? In terms of what is happening in
:25:35. > :25:40.Syria? I think it is probably too early to say. I think we will
:25:41. > :25:44.probably need to see what the consequences are of Russia pulling
:25:45. > :25:48.out and no longer giving that packing to President Assad on the
:25:49. > :25:52.ground, to see what happens there. Interestingly, Vladimir Putin has
:25:53. > :25:56.left the door open to go back again, he is maintaining that air base in
:25:57. > :26:00.Syria. There is the option of re-entering should he need to
:26:01. > :26:03.provide support to President Assad again. The Geneva talks obviously
:26:04. > :26:11.are going to shape perhaps the direction that Syria takes now. The
:26:12. > :26:15.German form foreign Ms. Minister says this will now increase pressure
:26:16. > :26:21.on President Assad. Do you think that is right? Yes, Assad is now
:26:22. > :26:25.caught between Iraq and a hard place. He cannot know what Russia
:26:26. > :26:28.wants. His big backers are a van and pressure, they are crucial to him.
:26:29. > :26:34.He does not survive without their support. If they had not intervened
:26:35. > :26:38.with the air strikes and changing the dynamics in the battlefield,
:26:39. > :26:41.Assad would've been under much greater pressure than he is now. But
:26:42. > :26:48.it think what we're going to look at now is a situation where we are
:26:49. > :26:51.going to see a sort of diplomatic, a peace process impose on the Assad
:26:52. > :26:56.regime. It is not going to dictate the future for Syria itself, that is
:26:57. > :26:59.up to the Syrian people, but the company to lead the country is in
:27:00. > :27:02.such chaos at the moment. It is difficult to see how many groups
:27:03. > :27:07.will agree to this. There are long ways to go in the diplomatic
:27:08. > :27:10.process. We are now moving to Germany where the anti-immigration
:27:11. > :27:14.party made significant gains in the election campaigning against what
:27:15. > :27:20.they called Angola Markle's catastrophic decision to accept 1
:27:21. > :27:23.million refugees. Here's what Angela Merkel have to say. If we are
:27:24. > :27:26.honest, we have to say that yesterday was a difficult day for
:27:27. > :27:30.the Christian Democrats and that is how we have been discussing it. The
:27:31. > :27:36.dominant schemes with the refugee issue in the refugee policy. The
:27:37. > :27:39.fact that in the eyes of the people not inappropriate or satisfactory
:27:40. > :27:45.solution has yet been found had a big impact on the votes. A difficult
:27:46. > :27:49.day indeed. Paying a price for her in immigration policy?
:27:50. > :27:52.I don't think she is necessarily pay the price yet, because we still have
:27:53. > :27:57.the general election in Germany to come, but I think this is a warning
:27:58. > :28:02.to Angela Merkel that there are a significant number of voters in
:28:03. > :28:08.Germany who wanted to maybe make a protest over the refugee crisis and
:28:09. > :28:12.over Germany's handling of that refugee crisis that maybe it is
:28:13. > :28:14.something she needs to reflect on heading into those general
:28:15. > :28:18.elections. This is a party led by somebody who
:28:19. > :28:21.said German police should if necessary shoot at migrants seeking
:28:22. > :28:27.to enter the country illegally. Is that worrying? Yes, I think it is
:28:28. > :28:32.probably going to be worrying for many people in Germany, because any
:28:33. > :28:35.kind of moves towards support for the right wing, given the country's
:28:36. > :28:40.history, is a very difficult and unpalatable thing for people in the
:28:41. > :28:45.country to face up to. But we are seeing the reaction here to the
:28:46. > :28:47.crisis, which is engulfing Europe in terms of the refugees coming from
:28:48. > :28:53.Syria. The language of the party can be
:28:54. > :28:56.quite worrying, but I'm not sure numerically and politically that
:28:57. > :29:00.there is as much worry as many people think at the moment. It has
:29:01. > :29:05.been at that time for Angela Merkel, she's herself put her heads up today
:29:06. > :29:08.and said we know they have been unsatisfactory solution and policies
:29:09. > :29:12.put forward on the issue of migration and immigration, so she
:29:13. > :29:15.admits the difficulties. It's state elections, if you actually look at
:29:16. > :29:19.the kind of number crunching at the way the parties have performed, she
:29:20. > :29:22.has come out not too badly and so the other parties, the Greens for
:29:23. > :29:25.example, some of the left-wing parties or come out very well
:29:26. > :29:28.indeed. But there was no question that what has been done is highly
:29:29. > :29:36.the sword reporter weatherization of German public opinion here --
:29:37. > :29:41.polarisation. I'm afraid that's all we've got time for this evening.
:29:42. > :29:44.Thank you very much for coming in. That's it for tonight. I will be
:29:45. > :29:46.back at the same time tomorrow night, so do join me if you can.
:29:47. > :29:51.Until then, goodbye.