:00:00. > :00:00.The First Minister calls for a meaningful role in the UK's
:00:00. > :00:25.Brexit preparations - but are her demands
:00:26. > :00:30.Good evening and welcome to Scotland 2016.
:00:31. > :00:32.Nicola Sturgeon says her government won't be "window-dressing
:00:33. > :00:35.in a talking shop" when it comes to Brexit negotiations.
:00:36. > :00:38.We'll speak to one of her predecessors, Gordon Wilson,
:00:39. > :00:42.who says it's unlikely she can't have Europe and independence.
:00:43. > :00:45.There's a lot of consensus at Holyrood over the Scottish
:00:46. > :00:47.Government's Brexit position, but will that last, once discussions
:00:48. > :00:53.And the top man at Ryanair talks to us about the impact of leaving
:00:54. > :00:56.the EU, and his belief that scrapping air passenger duty will
:00:57. > :01:15.The VAT receipts will be about four times the lost income. So scrap the
:01:16. > :01:19.tax and let the airlines get on with it.
:01:20. > :01:22.Despite the lack of clarity on what Brexit really means
:01:23. > :01:25.and the lack of detail on the deal that the UK government wants
:01:26. > :01:28.to negotiate with Europe, what is becoming clearer is the main
:01:29. > :01:31.European fault line between Holyrood and Westminster.
:01:32. > :01:33.Nicola Sturgeon reiterated today her desire to keep
:01:34. > :01:36.Scotland in the single market, despite Brexit.
:01:37. > :01:39.The Prime Minister refused several times to commit to such a position.
:01:40. > :01:46.Will Scottish ministers have a "decision-making" role
:01:47. > :01:49.in the UK's Brexit preparations, as the First Minister calls for,
:01:50. > :01:51.or is she on a collision course with Westminster?
:01:52. > :02:04.At Holyrood today, the First Minister listed all the things she
:02:05. > :02:12.wants to safeguard during Brexit negotiations. For example, to
:02:13. > :02:16.protect the benefits of the single market, for our businesses, to
:02:17. > :02:19.protect workers' rights, places in our universities, the continued
:02:20. > :02:23.ability of our students to participate in Erasmus and the
:02:24. > :02:26.enhanced security which comes from Europol and the European arrest
:02:27. > :02:32.warrant. But Nicola Sturgeon stressed most important item on the
:02:33. > :02:36.list - continued access to the single market. I accept that the
:02:37. > :02:39.Prime Minister has a mandate in England and Wales to leave the EU,
:02:40. > :02:44.but I do not accept she has a mandate to take any part of the UK
:02:45. > :02:49.out of the single market choice questions to the Prime Minister! Not
:02:50. > :02:55.surprisingly, that theme was pick up by the SNP at Westminster. So far,
:02:56. > :02:59.we've just had waffle. So may I ask the Prime Minister a simple
:03:00. > :03:04.question, but it's quite important - does she want the UK to remain fully
:03:05. > :03:09.within the single market? What I want for the UK is that we put into
:03:10. > :03:15.practice the vote that was taken by the people of the United Kingdom to
:03:16. > :03:18.leave the European Union, that we get the right deal for trade in
:03:19. > :03:21.goods and services with the European Union, in the new relationship that
:03:22. > :03:26.we will be building with them. Let me ask her again - does she want the
:03:27. > :03:33.United Kingdom to be fully part of the European single market, you saw
:03:34. > :03:40.no? The right honourable gentleman does not seem to quite understand
:03:41. > :03:46.what... What the vote on the 23rd of June was about. The United Kingdom
:03:47. > :03:50.will leave the European Union, and we will build a new relationship
:03:51. > :03:55.with the European Union. Back at Holyrood, no getting away from the
:03:56. > :04:00.single market. Previously, her stated aim had been to retain our EU
:04:01. > :04:04.membership. But on Monday, the First Minister appeared to be only seeking
:04:05. > :04:07.access to the single market. Can she comment on that shift and confirm
:04:08. > :04:11.whether or not she has received legal advice on the issue? There is
:04:12. > :04:16.no shift in the Scottish Government's position. But in the
:04:17. > :04:23.background, a fundamental question - which union, which market, is most
:04:24. > :04:25.important to Scotland? Nicola Sturgeon says that leaving this
:04:26. > :04:31.trading bloc is bad for Scotland. So why the she believe that leaving one
:04:32. > :04:35.which is four times as important in terms of trade is the answer to any
:04:36. > :04:39.of today's questions? Why was it that two years ago, she said to the
:04:40. > :04:42.people of Scotland that the only way to guarantee membership of the
:04:43. > :04:46.European Union was to vote against independence, and now that her party
:04:47. > :04:49.has taken us to the brink of exit, she is still trying to say that
:04:50. > :04:53.independence in no circumstances is the answer to that. MPs on the
:04:54. > :04:57.Scottish Affairs Committee at Westminster were told today that
:04:58. > :05:00.there is little prospect of Scotland doing a bespoke trade deal with
:05:01. > :05:05.Europe if the UK leaves the EU. Experts told the committee there's
:05:06. > :05:15.plenty more to work out. Could you please finish the sentence - Brexit
:05:16. > :05:18.means... Brexit means a massive constitutional headache for the
:05:19. > :05:20.United Kingdom. And it is that constitutional headache which
:05:21. > :05:25.politicians will have to negotiate as part of Brexit. Callisto because
:05:26. > :05:26.to the prospect of a second independence referendum as a
:05:27. > :05:28.bargaining chip. If she doesn't get the deal
:05:29. > :05:30.she wants, either full membership for Scotland or membership
:05:31. > :05:32.of the single market, One of her predecessors as SNP
:05:33. > :05:36.leader reckons that Gordon Wilson, who was leader
:05:37. > :05:39.until 1990, thinks the First Minister is unlikely to be able
:05:40. > :05:51.to have Europe and independence. I don't think it's feasible to get
:05:52. > :05:55.independence within Europe, even with another referendum, because you
:05:56. > :05:59.have to wait for the decision of some 27 other countries, any one of
:06:00. > :06:03.whom could of course veto the application. There's a lot of
:06:04. > :06:07.goodwill towards Scotland for the way in which the country voted in
:06:08. > :06:13.the recent referendum, but goodwill is not necessarily capable of being
:06:14. > :06:17.back. And that is the problem which would face any Scottish Government.
:06:18. > :06:20.You've written previously that there is no way of saving Scotland's EU
:06:21. > :06:26.membership and independence should be off the table. I had you would
:06:27. > :06:30.say that given that you supported Leave during the Brexit campaign.
:06:31. > :06:33.But isn't Nicola Sturgeon right to use the prospect of another
:06:34. > :06:36.independence referendum as a mechanism, as she would put it, to
:06:37. > :06:42.hold Westminster's foot to the fire one? The problem with that is that
:06:43. > :06:46.Westminster, in the shape of Theresa May, who is flipped like in her
:06:47. > :06:52.attitudes, has read the opinion polls in Scotland. They have seen
:06:53. > :06:56.that there is not a majority for independence. That of course could
:06:57. > :07:00.be overtaken in a campaign, but equally, that desire for a second
:07:01. > :07:07.referendum at this time is not manifest in the Scottish electorate.
:07:08. > :07:10.They can read the evidence, and because of that, Scotland does not
:07:11. > :07:14.have much of a negotiating stance. That's one of the reasons why I
:07:15. > :07:17.suggested that the best course for the First Minister and the Scottish
:07:18. > :07:22.Government would be to try and do a deal with Northern Ireland, with the
:07:23. > :07:27.Republic of Ireland and so on, for a Celtic corridor. That would be
:07:28. > :07:30.within the United Kingdom and would not necessarily be dealt with in the
:07:31. > :07:34.same way as independence. Independence would be a wonderful
:07:35. > :07:37.way of extorting concessions from Westminster, if Westminster
:07:38. > :07:43.genuinely thought there was something to fear. You talk about
:07:44. > :07:46.forging this Celtic 4-door - Howard that actually work? Would it keep
:07:47. > :07:52.the country in the single market after Brexit? Well, dust must be the
:07:53. > :07:55.objective. We do not know what the British Government intends to do,
:07:56. > :08:00.and I suspect they do not know themselves. It depends upon the
:08:01. > :08:04.attitude taken by the European Union, they are the other partners
:08:05. > :08:09.in any negotiation. This is a scheme which I've come up with, whereby the
:08:10. > :08:14.Republic of Ireland is very worried about the border with Northern
:08:15. > :08:18.Ireland, the custom situation, and of course for that to be a
:08:19. > :08:22.reunification referendum. That's something which might induce the
:08:23. > :08:25.British Government to take some action on. There's no reason why
:08:26. > :08:30.they can't do a deal like that. There was one done similarly with
:08:31. > :08:37.Greenland about 30 years ago. The European Union, if it is of a mind,
:08:38. > :08:40.that is, is infinitely flexible in devising solutions. I think the main
:08:41. > :08:44.problem would come from the British garment, which would not wish to see
:08:45. > :08:49.Scotland treated in any other way than the rest of the UK. The trouble
:08:50. > :08:55.for them of course, is that they have got Northern Ireland to deal
:08:56. > :09:01.with. 38% of Scots who voted backed Leave. It is suggested 36% of those
:09:02. > :09:05.were SNP voters. Would that 36% rather be out of Europe and part of
:09:06. > :09:11.the UK or out of the UK and part of Europe, as Nicola Sturgeon says?
:09:12. > :09:18.Well, who can tell? For those of us who want independence, yes, we would
:09:19. > :09:22.be prepared to do all sorts of cartwheels in order to get to its.
:09:23. > :09:26.But there are others who don't believe that the European Union is
:09:27. > :09:31.the best way forward, and amongst nationalists, that is, and they
:09:32. > :09:35.might not vote for independence in those circumstances. And I also
:09:36. > :09:38.mention one thing which has never come out in the whole business? And
:09:39. > :09:44.that is the Lisbon Treaty. And the reason why I voted Leave was because
:09:45. > :09:48.I did not want to be involved in a federal Europe. Nobody ever
:09:49. > :09:52.mentioned that during the campaign, did they? What are the consequences
:09:53. > :09:58.of holding a quick referendum? There are some calling for that in the
:09:59. > :10:00.SNP, and your party losing? Well, of course, that would postpone any
:10:01. > :10:06.further decision on independence indefinitely. I think any cautious
:10:07. > :10:12.intelligent politician would have to do their sums. It could very well be
:10:13. > :10:20.that the situation could change in the run-up to leaving the European
:10:21. > :10:25.Union, because if the conditions, for example, do not favour Scotland,
:10:26. > :10:30.then there could be a reaction. I will give you one example - in 1973,
:10:31. > :10:33.Edward Heath cordoned off and sacrificed Scotland's 200 miles of
:10:34. > :10:40.fishing waters to the Common Fisheries Policy. Now, the main
:10:41. > :10:42.objective of the British Government was the financial industry in
:10:43. > :10:47.London, the car industry in the Midlands and the north of England,
:10:48. > :10:51.and we may find some of our main industries or commerce not looked
:10:52. > :10:56.after properly. So, a lot depends on the deal that will be done. And that
:10:57. > :10:57.we do not know at this stage. Gordon Wilson, thank you very much for
:10:58. > :11:00.joining us. I'm joined now from Edinburgh
:11:01. > :11:02.by the SNP's Mairi Evans and Scottish Labour's Europe
:11:03. > :11:11.spokesman Lewis Macdonald. Mairi Evans, should Scotland have a
:11:12. > :11:15.veto over any deal the UK does? I think we are obviously a part of the
:11:16. > :11:20.UK, we can play a vitally important role here. The fact remains that
:11:21. > :11:25.Scotland voted to remain within the EU. Should that give Scotland the
:11:26. > :11:30.right to veto? I think that should be considered, yes. Absolutely.
:11:31. > :11:33.Lewis Macdonald, given there is consensus at Holyrood over much of
:11:34. > :11:37.what the first minute is saying, would you back a veto? I don't think
:11:38. > :11:41.veto is the right way to look at this. This is about the whole of the
:11:42. > :11:44.United Kingdom, and the united government needs to consult and take
:11:45. > :11:47.on board the views of the devolved administrations within the UK,
:11:48. > :11:50.including the Scottish Government as well as Wales and Northern Ireland
:11:51. > :11:57.and London. So that means Labour's position is that you're happy to put
:11:58. > :12:00.us come as she said at the mercy of Westminster's decisions, no matter
:12:01. > :12:04.how damaging? Yorker not at all. What we are keen to do is to get the
:12:05. > :12:08.best possible outcome for Scotland and for the rest of Britain. What
:12:09. > :12:11.that means is not heading off at the very beginning of the whole process
:12:12. > :12:15.to try to state out a separate Scottish position. It is actually
:12:16. > :12:18.about using the power and influence of the Scottish Government, and
:12:19. > :12:21.others, to try and get the United Kingdom government to come to the
:12:22. > :12:25.right position. We've seen today very clearly just how divided the
:12:26. > :12:29.Conservative Party in Westminster remains. The Prime Minister, the new
:12:30. > :12:32.Prime Minister, who papered over the cracks very successfully over the
:12:33. > :12:36.summer, as soon she comes back to Parliament and is asked the question
:12:37. > :12:40.about what her objective is in the negotiation, is not able to say so.
:12:41. > :12:43.That means that there is an opportunity to influence policy, and
:12:44. > :12:46.the outcome. I think it would be wrong for the Scottish element to
:12:47. > :12:55.walk away from that and to declare that independence was the only
:12:56. > :12:59.route. Mairi Evans, can we possibly be a member of the single market and
:13:00. > :13:02.not a member of the EU, as the First Minister seems to be suggesting? I
:13:03. > :13:07.suppose we really don't know what is possible at the moment, as was
:13:08. > :13:13.hinted at in Prime Minister's Questions today. The standard line
:13:14. > :13:16.from the Tories is that Brexit means Brexit. We have heard no other
:13:17. > :13:21.detail other than that. I think we have to do whatever we can to make
:13:22. > :13:28.sure that Scotland remains a part of the single market, because that is
:13:29. > :13:31.going to be vital to our economy. They are being told at the moment
:13:32. > :13:35.that unless they sign up for the free movement of Labour, then the
:13:36. > :13:38.single market is not open to them, the Swiss. That would be the same
:13:39. > :13:42.position for Scotland and it would have consequences for our Borders,
:13:43. > :13:45.wouldn't it? It could very well do that. I think what we see from the
:13:46. > :13:51.Tories is that they want to have their cake and eat it. We see the
:13:52. > :13:54.infighting, they can't decide what priority they want to have first,
:13:55. > :14:04.whether they focus on immigration or whether they focus on access to the
:14:05. > :14:08.market. So, it is just one of these situations, we can't have both. And
:14:09. > :14:12.at some point we are going to have to make that decision as to what is
:14:13. > :14:15.the most important for Scotland. And that would be access to the single
:14:16. > :14:19.market. And a vital element of that for us is the free movement of
:14:20. > :14:23.people within that. I think that will be the hard line for the Tories
:14:24. > :14:24.to take. And again, they have to decide whether it is the free market
:14:25. > :14:35.or the single market. Lewis McDonald, you talked about
:14:36. > :14:39.confusion and the Tories but let us talk about the Labour position.
:14:40. > :14:43.Jeremy Corbyn said he would not support a single market unless there
:14:44. > :14:47.was reforming the EU but then there was a clarification that he would
:14:48. > :14:52.press for membership of the single market. Are you clear on the Labour
:14:53. > :14:56.position? I think it is clear in the sense that what Jeremy Corbyn has
:14:57. > :14:59.said is what he has said throughout the process. He came to Aberdeen a
:15:00. > :15:11.week before the referendum and said he was in favour of Britain European
:15:12. > :15:14.Union but also in favour of reform of the European Union and that is no
:15:15. > :15:16.great surprise if he reiterates that point today. The important thing in
:15:17. > :15:18.the context of this discussion is the view of the Scottish Labour
:15:19. > :15:21.Party and they have been clear that we want the Scottish Government to
:15:22. > :15:26.go and explore the options, to look at the kind of that Gordon Wilson
:15:27. > :15:31.was talking about earlier, options which allow Scotland to maintain
:15:32. > :15:36.access to the benefits of our European relationships, we want that
:15:37. > :15:40.to happen in the Scottish to be transparent about that. If the
:15:41. > :15:43.Tories at Westminster can't tell us what their objective is, we at least
:15:44. > :15:49.want to know what Scottish Government is Saint UK Government.
:15:50. > :15:53.Is the prospect of a second independence referendum a
:15:54. > :15:58.deal-breaker? It is not something we support which is very clear. It is
:15:59. > :16:02.in our manifesto that we do not support a second independence
:16:03. > :16:06.referendum. Nicola Sturgeon has been clear and she has talked about it to
:16:07. > :16:12.the party faithful last week but she barely mentioned it today. The real
:16:13. > :16:18.test will be how actively she and her colleagues seek the kind of
:16:19. > :16:23.outcome we want and that they want. Time is tight so I will bring in
:16:24. > :16:28.Marietta -- Mairi Evans. Are you in danger of shattering the consensus
:16:29. > :16:31.in Holyrood that exists because of this country -- constant
:16:32. > :16:38.introduction of the second independence referendum? The Colts
:16:39. > :16:43.the problem lies that this is not brought about the SNP but by other
:16:44. > :16:48.parties. Yesterday you are legislating for it. Just after the
:16:49. > :16:52.result of the EU referendum there was cross-party support for the
:16:53. > :16:56.First Minister to look at all available options. We are not
:16:57. > :17:00.looking at all available options if independence isn't at least on the
:17:01. > :17:05.table, but it is certainly not the starting point for this debate and
:17:06. > :17:09.that was made clear by the First Minister, absolutely clear. Thank
:17:10. > :17:12.Ryanair's chief executive Michael O'Leary was in Edinburgh
:17:13. > :17:14.today announcing new Scottish routes for his airline.
:17:15. > :17:16.Our Business editor Douglas Fraser caught up with him afterwards
:17:17. > :17:19.to ask him about Brexit and the Scottish Government's plans
:17:20. > :17:28.We will continue to invest in and grow the business here in Scotland
:17:29. > :17:32.but I have to say the growth will be much faster and the investment
:17:33. > :17:36.bigger if either UK had voted to stay in Europe. Scotland is held
:17:37. > :17:44.back by other things, APD which is opposed here from London, it poses a
:17:45. > :17:47.serious, it holds back our ability to add more routes and bring more
:17:48. > :17:52.price sensitive visitors here to Scotland. There is no reason to wait
:17:53. > :17:59.until 2018, the Irish government scrapped the travel tax in 2016.
:18:00. > :18:06.Travel shot up by a large percent and Scotland can share in that kind
:18:07. > :18:10.of growth. We go into years of uncertainty about Brexit. You are
:18:11. > :18:16.announcing new routes for Edinburgh and Glasgow, what is the future for
:18:17. > :18:21.Prestwick? APD has really hammered Prestwick. A few years ago we were
:18:22. > :18:24.doing nearly 2.5 million passengers between Prestwick in London and that
:18:25. > :18:32.route has nearly disappeared now. We want to offer ?10 airfares but the
:18:33. > :18:36.taxes ?13 which is a huge. There are not the number of passengers willing
:18:37. > :18:43.to pay that kind of tax. You say there would be arise in business if
:18:44. > :18:48.there was an abolition of air passenger duty. What of the Scottish
:18:49. > :18:51.Government got it halved? What we have said publicly is that if you
:18:52. > :18:56.scrap it altogether we will double our traffic here in Scotland. We
:18:57. > :19:00.will go from 5 million passengers a year to 10 million passengers a year
:19:01. > :19:04.within two years and there will be huge investment in Scotland by
:19:05. > :19:10.Ryanair. There is no reason to keep half of it! If they keep half of it
:19:11. > :19:14.there will be a lot less growth, we will still have the same problem.
:19:15. > :19:21.You are imposing a rate that goes down to ?6 50, but we want to charge
:19:22. > :19:26.a ?10 airfares and that is still a ?65 -- 65% rate of tax. For the
:19:27. > :19:29.small amount of revenue you are bringing in you would be better off
:19:30. > :19:35.to scrap the tax altogether and take us up on the offer to double our
:19:36. > :19:38.traffic. If we grow to 10 million passengers in two years the receipts
:19:39. > :19:43.from the visitors spent will be about four times the lost APD, so
:19:44. > :19:48.scrap the tax and let the airlines and airports get on with doubling
:19:49. > :19:52.the numbers here in Scotland. Straight after the referendum
:19:53. > :19:58.results about Brexit you said that you are going to pivot away from UK
:19:59. > :20:01.routes to other parts of Europe. Are you still saying that, given that
:20:02. > :20:05.the economic consequences don't look quite as bad now as they did
:20:06. > :20:09.immediately after the results? I don't share the view that the UK
:20:10. > :20:13.economy is doing very well. It has had a temporary boost because
:20:14. > :20:19.sterling has collapsed post-Brexit. That can last for a few months
:20:20. > :20:22.thereafter companies like Ryanair, you saw the Japanese meeting in
:20:23. > :20:27.China last week and those companies are postponing investment decisions
:20:28. > :20:31.in the UK and regrettably switching those decisions await a continental
:20:32. > :20:35.Europe. Brexit has and will continue to be a disaster for the UK economy
:20:36. > :20:37.until someone can come up with some clarity on what the UK's trading
:20:38. > :21:02.relationships with Europe will be at real challenge is that no one
:21:03. > :21:05.in the British government has a clue what the hell it is they want and in
:21:06. > :21:08.Europe no one is willing to give them very much either. The offer
:21:09. > :21:10.from Europe has been entirely consistent, you can have access to
:21:11. > :21:13.the single market but you will concede free movement of people, in
:21:14. > :21:15.which case you won't have what the hell the Brexiteers were looking for
:21:16. > :21:16.in the first place. A plain speaking Michael O'Leary there.
:21:17. > :21:19.Here with me now to discuss all of today's Brexit news
:21:20. > :21:21.are the Sunday Herald's Tom Gordon and the political
:21:22. > :21:25.We will start with Brexit. What did you make of the various positions we
:21:26. > :21:28.have from Nicola Sturgeon and Theresa May? I am not surprised at
:21:29. > :21:31.all that Theresa May said there would not be a running commentary on
:21:32. > :21:34.Brexit because I think there would be a national panic if we saw what
:21:35. > :21:36.was going on in Whitehall at the moment. She does want to keep her
:21:37. > :21:38.negotiating hand closed and we heard from Nicola Sturgeon that she is
:21:39. > :21:41.getting frustrated, she can't see what is happening in Whitehall, but
:21:42. > :21:46.she wouldn't be in the mood to disclose her negotiating hand
:21:47. > :21:51.either. She says she doesn't have a clue what is going on rather than
:21:52. > :21:56.she does not want to reveal her negotiating hand. I'm sure the civil
:21:57. > :21:59.service are doing things, there is a clash between the Brexiteer
:22:00. > :22:04.ministers who want different things. They are going on on frolics of
:22:05. > :22:07.their own. David Davis said it was improbable the UK would stay in the
:22:08. > :22:11.single market and then he was corrected by Theresa May. There is
:22:12. > :22:14.definitely confusion. Nicola Sturgeon complains about the
:22:15. > :22:20.confusion but she probably has an eye to it working in her favour in
:22:21. > :22:25.the long-term if the Brexit process gets more acrimonious and more
:22:26. > :22:31.chaotic and she can say this bunch cannot run a whelk stall so let's
:22:32. > :22:34.get out. Can Nicola Sturgeon have a consistent position? She was talking
:22:35. > :22:39.about keeping us in the EU are now she is talking access to the single
:22:40. > :22:42.market. I think it was the day after the Brexit result but she said it
:22:43. > :22:47.was highly likely there would be a second independence referendum and
:22:48. > :22:52.she then had a week tour around Strasbourg and Brussels at various
:22:53. > :22:56.heads of state. Today we are talking about the single market and the
:22:57. > :23:01.language has modified because Nicola is obviously trying to keep our
:23:02. > :23:05.options open as much as possible. Like Theresa May, I suspect, Nicola
:23:06. > :23:10.doesn't have any idea where this is going. Article 50 is yet to be
:23:11. > :23:15.invoked when negotiations begin week, and the politicians, will have
:23:16. > :23:19.a clear idea of where this takes us. Let us talk about business. We heard
:23:20. > :23:26.from Michael O'Leary and one sector of the business, of business, is
:23:27. > :23:31.particularly worried about or has been worried about its effect, and
:23:32. > :23:35.that is the food and drink sector. It is booming and sales are growing
:23:36. > :23:42.year-on-year and according to a bank is to survey today businesses are
:23:43. > :23:45.expecting to create thousands of jobs over the next five years.
:23:46. > :23:47.Whilst many sales are outside Europe, what could happen
:23:48. > :23:49.if Scotland does leave the single market?
:23:50. > :23:51.Well, here's what one of Scotland's leading economists had to say.
:23:52. > :23:55.If you take salmon farming, it is worth millions of pounds to the
:23:56. > :23:58.Scottish economy and at the moment it has free access to the main
:23:59. > :24:07.market which is continental Europe. The Norwegians salmon has to pay 2%
:24:08. > :24:11.tariff which is within the EEE a but you can only join the EEA if you
:24:12. > :24:16.allow free movement of labour and if you are not prepared to do that then
:24:17. > :24:20.you go to a different arrangement and then salmon imports from the
:24:21. > :24:28.rest of the world have an 8% tariff into Europe so you would be looking
:24:29. > :24:31.at a significantly higher tariff. That is just one commodity there but
:24:32. > :24:36.it shows the complexity of what we might end up dealing with. It is
:24:37. > :24:39.fiendishly difficult. There was a more optimistic report today from
:24:40. > :24:43.the Bank of Scotland about the food and drink sector and said it was
:24:44. > :24:46.buoyant and resilient and half of the companies surveyed said that
:24:47. > :24:52.post Brexit their estimates would go up and only a quarter thought they
:24:53. > :24:55.would go down. Interestingly 90% of those companies were trading off
:24:56. > :24:58.provenance, off the good reputation of Scotland and the reputation of
:24:59. > :25:02.Scottish food and drink and those companies cannot really go anywhere
:25:03. > :25:07.else. Michael O'Leary and Ryanair is moving players -- planes outside of
:25:08. > :25:11.the UK because of Brexit said different companies will take
:25:12. > :25:15.different options but for the big companies they might move out of the
:25:16. > :25:18.UK and Scotland but smaller companies are locked in. They are
:25:19. > :25:21.looking to politicians for answers and as we pointed out earlier we are
:25:22. > :25:24.not getting many answers upward movement and things could get quite
:25:25. > :25:33.rocky, as to reasonable to doubt, for these businesses. This survey
:25:34. > :25:38.was carried out after the Brexit referendum result and it is not just
:25:39. > :25:44.in spite of that but because of that that many of these food producers in
:25:45. > :25:49.Scotland are buoyed up with a new confidence. They are looking at a
:25:50. > :25:54.world unfettered by EU red tape and regulations perhaps and many of them
:25:55. > :25:59.want to seize the opportunity, as Theresa May said -- Theresa May
:26:00. > :26:05.said, let's make Britain and Ireland trading nation and a global leader.
:26:06. > :26:09.I want to talk about global politics in America and in the Dallas morning
:26:10. > :26:14.News they said there is only one serious candid on the presidential
:26:15. > :26:19.ballot in September, we want to recommend Hillary Clinton. It is not
:26:20. > :26:24.fun day at a politician and they say they did not come to the decision
:26:25. > :26:30.easily and they haven't recommended a Democrat since before World War II
:26:31. > :26:34.and that is nearly 20 elections. That part of Texas is backing
:26:35. > :26:36.Hillary Clinton and things are getting interesting. Very
:26:37. > :26:41.interesting, and their rationale was that they did not think that Donald
:26:42. > :26:44.Trump was true Republican and they thought he was a one-man menace. If
:26:45. > :26:51.you sit back at the history of this paper, to knock back a Democrat for
:26:52. > :26:54.75 years means that in the infamous 1964 election they did not support
:26:55. > :26:59.President Lyndon Johnson who was Texas born and bred and was then
:27:00. > :27:03.standing against Barry Goldwater who was bonkers. Even then they did not
:27:04. > :27:07.back the Democrats, but now they are backing the Democrat and it says
:27:08. > :27:12.quite a bit. A lot of people say Hillary Clinton could be issue in
:27:13. > :27:15.but a CNN poll says Donald Trump has a 2% lead nationally. Another
:27:16. > :27:20.interesting poll for NBC says that when it comes to those in the
:27:21. > :27:23.military he has a 19 point lead. He announced potential big spending for
:27:24. > :27:30.the military which could explain it, but things are not cut and dried
:27:31. > :27:34.here. They are not. For many people in the Beltway and elsewhere in the
:27:35. > :27:41.States and here and around the world, you can't write them off that
:27:42. > :27:46.easily. We might find it difficult to see him as a US president but he
:27:47. > :27:50.has a lot of support amongst the disenfranchised and unemployed and
:27:51. > :27:53.blue-collar Americans. The other thing the Dallas morning News
:27:54. > :27:57.editorial said was that they said Hillary Clinton has her shortcomings
:27:58. > :28:02.and we know that a lot of people are really struggling to vote for her.
:28:03. > :28:05.She is actually facing problems with some of the third-party candidates
:28:06. > :28:13.like the Greens who are taking votes away from her. We saw that happen
:28:14. > :28:18.with Al Gore against George W Bush. She has a problem with that and you
:28:19. > :28:23.can never say never with drab but in America it is not a clear-cut
:28:24. > :28:27.majority that takes it in America, it is the electoral college and
:28:28. > :28:31.Hillary seems to have a strong performance in these states where
:28:32. > :28:37.the electoral college comes from. Do you think he could do it? I think he
:28:38. > :28:42.could do it. It all depends, I believe, on how he performs against
:28:43. > :28:45.Hillary come the presidential televised debates. We watch those
:28:46. > :28:47.with interest. Thank you both for joining us this evening.
:28:48. > :28:50.I'm back again tomorrow night, usual time.
:28:51. > :28:59.So do please join me then, bye bye.
:29:00. > :29:03.In an unforgiving time, Scotland had its heroes.
:29:04. > :29:09.Then, as our sense of Scottishness flourished,
:29:10. > :29:12.our football saw unprecedented decline.
:29:13. > :29:14.Scotland over-estimate how good they are.
:29:15. > :29:20.They are a limited group. They're an honest, solid, limited group.
:29:21. > :29:24.We've now got to look forward to the dreams. We can do it.