:00:00. > :00:00."The dream will never die," said Alex Salmond.
:00:00. > :00:00.But on this second anniversary of the referendum,
:00:00. > :00:24.what are the prospects for Scottish independence?
:00:25. > :00:31.Many are still vocally yes, while others would say no again.
:00:32. > :00:34.We reflect on 2014's referendum with leading
:00:35. > :00:37.campaigners from both sides - and find out what they would do
:00:38. > :00:43.And the Scottish government says it will place more power in the hands
:00:44. > :00:59.of teachers, but does that put it on a collision course with councils?
:01:00. > :01:06.It was the referendum than expected would be once in a generation. At
:01:07. > :01:09.the weekend, former First Minister Alex Salmond suggested might be more
:01:10. > :01:17.like twice in four years, producing another vote in autumn 2018. Brexit
:01:18. > :01:23.has changed everything, but has it affected the polls?
:01:24. > :01:25.Nicola Sturgeon faces an agonising decision on whether or not
:01:26. > :01:29.But what do campaigners on both sides of the debate think?
:01:30. > :01:31.Our political correspondent, Andrew Kerr, has been
:01:32. > :01:42.Two years on, how much is there to cheer for supporters of
:01:43. > :01:52.independence? Is pub in Glasgow was renamed the Yes bar in 2014 by the
:01:53. > :01:56.owners. Two years ago was the greatest of days, and then the worst
:01:57. > :02:00.of days. I actually spoke to my husband this morning. I said you
:02:01. > :02:04.know, this time last year, I even felt quite despondent. I thought
:02:05. > :02:08.what a great opportunity we had missed. But all of a sudden, it
:02:09. > :02:12.feels like we're on the way up again. Obviously there's lessons to
:02:13. > :02:16.be learned, a lot of listening to do. But it is on its way. Those
:02:17. > :02:19.lessons to be learned include discussing the currency option. So,
:02:20. > :02:26.if it's on its way, when Mike that broke the? Sooner than we think. --
:02:27. > :02:35.when might that vote the? As far as I can see, they made choices under a
:02:36. > :02:39.set of descriptions and circumstances which turned out not
:02:40. > :02:44.to be true. Brexit was the big one. They were told to vote no and be
:02:45. > :02:49.safe in Britain. The opposite us turned out to be true. People turned
:02:50. > :02:52.out to various events at the weekend, fired up for the cause. A
:02:53. > :02:56.cause that has perhaps been redefined by the First Minister,
:02:57. > :03:01.saying the case for self-government transcends the issues of the day.
:03:02. > :03:04.For me it was was about self-determination is. Making those
:03:05. > :03:09.determinations are right for people in Scotland. Any decision. Any
:03:10. > :03:13.decision at all. Sometimes during the referendum when policy was
:03:14. > :03:17.talked about a lot, to me it seemed from a personal level kind of
:03:18. > :03:23.strange. To me, it wasn't about policy decisions as who gets to make
:03:24. > :03:25.this policy decisions. Maybe half the country is invigorated by the
:03:26. > :03:30.prospect of another referendum. Maybe the other half of the country
:03:31. > :03:38.want that prospect to simply go away. The divisions are all too
:03:39. > :03:41.relevant in our recent report. It praised the Scottish referendum for
:03:42. > :03:44.being vibrant and well-informed. Nationalist welcome that, but
:03:45. > :03:52.Unionists said it was divisive and negative. This man is now -- this
:03:53. > :03:56.woman is now a Conservative MSP. She got involved in politics for the
:03:57. > :04:01.first time in 2014., now she sees a problem that you would prefer to go
:04:02. > :04:05.away. I think the SNP need to just take the cards off the table and get
:04:06. > :04:09.on with doing the job. I don't want there to be another referendum, of
:04:10. > :04:13.course don't want that to be one. I the SNP with the results in the
:04:14. > :04:17.polls last week, there is no appetite for it. They really need to
:04:18. > :04:20.have a hard look at themselves and see what's the best thing for
:04:21. > :04:26.Scotland right now. But we're here because of Brexit. What's the
:04:27. > :04:31.Unionist line? We won't lie to you because we still have the option of
:04:32. > :04:35.being in the European Union. Had Scotland ready to leave in 2014,
:04:36. > :04:40.there'd be out of the referendum anyway -- out of the union anyway.
:04:41. > :04:48.Better together. After the battle was won, but what about the war?
:04:49. > :04:56.With the Conservatives now the biggest opposition army, who should
:04:57. > :05:00.clean lead the fight for the union? If the SNP did actually put it
:05:01. > :05:05.forward, there's only one person in my eyes that could actually Robert,
:05:06. > :05:10.that would be Ruth Davidson. -- could actually run it. I think the
:05:11. > :05:14.result of the Scottish Parliamentary elections show that people are
:05:15. > :05:17.satisfied with her and the result we saw last week in the polls show that
:05:18. > :05:21.she has a lot of popularity and believes passionately in the union.
:05:22. > :05:24.For people like Annie and Cezanne and the rest of us, constitutional
:05:25. > :05:28.arguments certainly lie ahead. Since 2014's referendum,
:05:29. > :05:30.we have, of course, had Has that made any difference
:05:31. > :05:34.to public opinion on independence? I have been asking the polling
:05:35. > :05:46.expert, Professor John Curtice. Since the independence referendum in
:05:47. > :05:50.September 2014, the opinion polls have typically been saying that
:05:51. > :05:55.around 53% of people want to stay inside the UK, 47% in favour of
:05:56. > :05:58.independence. Those were the numbers running all the way through to the
:05:59. > :06:02.Scottish Parliamentary election in May. In the last four weeks or so,
:06:03. > :06:05.we have now had five companies all measure once again people's
:06:06. > :06:15.attitudes towards independence. The truth is that what they are telling
:06:16. > :06:21.us is that around 52 or 53% of people are inferior staying in the
:06:22. > :06:25.UK. The truth is, it looks as though there is a small majority in favour
:06:26. > :06:32.of staying. -- are in favour Isles. The balance of opinion has not
:06:33. > :06:35.changed in the wake of Brexit. There is some evidence of some people
:06:36. > :06:40.switching from yes to no and no do you. Over the balance hasn't changed
:06:41. > :06:45.on aggregate, it looks as if some individual voters have changed their
:06:46. > :06:49.minds. If we look at the recent polls, the position back last April
:06:50. > :06:53.and May. Typically, something close to 90% of both yes and no voters
:06:54. > :06:58.were saying they would still vote the same way. Post Brexit, all the
:06:59. > :07:03.opinion polls are now finding numbers closer to 80% of people
:07:04. > :07:07.saying that they would vote the same way I September 20 14. Which
:07:08. > :07:11.therefore suggests and there is other evidence to confirm this that
:07:12. > :07:15.some people have switched from no to yes in the wake of the decision of
:07:16. > :07:19.the UK as a whole to leave the European Union. However, there are
:07:20. > :07:22.other people who have moved in the opposite direction. I think it's
:07:23. > :07:26.often forgotten that a quite substantial group, at least a third
:07:27. > :07:29.or more, of those people who voted yes in September 20 14th actually
:07:30. > :07:38.voted for breakfast. Therefore we should not be surprised. -- who
:07:39. > :07:44.voted yes actually voted for Brexit. This will be a problem for Nicola
:07:45. > :07:48.Sturgeon, that substantial minority of yes supporters who voted for
:07:49. > :07:53.Brexit? I think the truth is that the SNP cannot presume that the
:07:54. > :07:56.coalition of yes voters are as homogenous in their views about the
:07:57. > :08:02.European Union as the Parliamentary ranks of the SNP both in Holyrood
:08:03. > :08:07.and at Westminster. The truth is, like every political party and
:08:08. > :08:10.movement, the issue of Europe cuts across people's attitudes on
:08:11. > :08:15.independence. For Scotland or otherwise. You can see why some
:08:16. > :08:18.people may have switched to the opposite direction, leaving us much
:08:19. > :08:23.where we were. I think the lesson is that the truth is the SNP cannot
:08:24. > :08:28.presume that people's reactions to Brexit alone is going to be enough
:08:29. > :08:31.to create a majority in favour of independence in Scotland. There will
:08:32. > :08:35.have to go back onto the issue which above all was central in
:08:36. > :08:38.independence referendum, was also crucial in European referendum. That
:08:39. > :08:44.is to persuade people that independence would be better for
:08:45. > :08:49.Scotland economically. Until and if, unless the SNP can win that
:08:50. > :08:50.argument, there are unlikely to win a second European referendum.
:08:51. > :08:53.Well, to reflect on those campaigns past - and possibly those
:08:54. > :08:56.of the future ? I am joined by Dennis Canavan, who was chair
:08:57. > :08:58.of Yes Scotland's advisory board, and by Craig Harrow,
:08:59. > :09:02.who was one of the founding directors of Better Together.
:09:03. > :09:08.Let us cast our minds back two years. In both of your opinions,
:09:09. > :09:15.what went right for your campaigns and what went wrong? Dennis, first.
:09:16. > :09:18.Yellow what went right, the very fact that we started off at the
:09:19. > :09:27.start of the campaign with less than 30% of the people supporting
:09:28. > :09:33.independent. By the end of the campaign, that had increased to 45%.
:09:34. > :09:38.Not enough, but nevertheless it's a very good base. An excellent base
:09:39. > :09:42.for us to build on success the next time. What went wrong? Well, I think
:09:43. > :09:47.that one of the things that went wrong for us was that we spent too
:09:48. > :09:52.much time speaking to the converted. I mean, it was great going out to
:09:53. > :09:59.big rallies and things. I enjoyed it. But I found that at a lot of
:10:00. > :10:02.these big meetings and rallies, it was mostly, sometimes almost
:10:03. > :10:08.entirely, yes micro-people who are coming along. And I do think that
:10:09. > :10:14.next time round, we have learnt a lesson and we've got to work very
:10:15. > :10:18.very hard to try and convert enough of the 2 million people who voted no
:10:19. > :10:23.in the last referendum. We've got to get out there, knocking on doors,
:10:24. > :10:28.taking the arguments to the people, trying to win the debate, winning
:10:29. > :10:33.the hearts and minds of sufficient people. If we can do that, I am
:10:34. > :10:37.confident that we share win in the next referendum. Crave, strengths
:10:38. > :10:44.and weaknesses for the Better Together side? I think, and we saw
:10:45. > :10:48.this in the Remain campaign recently, that the project fear
:10:49. > :10:53.playbook really went too far I think. The negativity on the Better
:10:54. > :10:59.Together campaign was overplayed. I think in the future, we must be
:11:00. > :11:03.talking more about the benefits of the United Kingdom. Socially,
:11:04. > :11:07.culturally, economically. And just not playing the economic car the
:11:08. > :11:12.whole time, but talking more about the broader benefits that we have
:11:13. > :11:17.from the United Kingdom. -- the economic side the whole time. Do
:11:18. > :11:20.think people on the the yes I'd welcome project fear because they
:11:21. > :11:24.overplayed their hand is? I don't think we welcomed it, I think it was
:11:25. > :11:32.wrong for Better Together to go along with project fear. I mean, too
:11:33. > :11:37.much negativity sometimes can rebound. Against a party or against
:11:38. > :11:44.a particular campaign. But I'm quite convinced, for example, if you look
:11:45. > :11:48.at my demographic. People over the age of 60 or over the age of 70.
:11:49. > :11:54.Most of them, all the evidence points to the fact that most of them
:11:55. > :11:59.voted no in the referendum. Why? Many of them were afraid. Many of
:12:00. > :12:02.them were told thundering lies by the Better Together campaign. They
:12:03. > :12:06.were told that there was no guarantee that their pension would
:12:07. > :12:11.be maintained if they voted Years. Despite the fact that there was a
:12:12. > :12:15.letter from the UK Government department, the DWP, stating quite
:12:16. > :12:19.clearly in black and white that arrangements for the pension would
:12:20. > :12:28.continue. Do you think currency was a particular weakness for Alex
:12:29. > :12:33.Salmond? I know you have always backed separate currency. I think
:12:34. > :12:37.the government have admitted that the currency problem was not handled
:12:38. > :12:41.well. -- the Scottish Government. You can't force the rest of UK to
:12:42. > :12:46.accept a sterling currency union. That obvious. The Scottish
:12:47. > :12:51.Government at the time decided that there would be no plan B. I listened
:12:52. > :12:55.carefully to what Nicola surgeon has said and done and also what Alex
:12:56. > :12:58.Salmond has said and done over the past few weeks. -- Nicola Sturgeon.
:12:59. > :13:04.I think they would admit it could have been handled better. In fact,
:13:05. > :13:10.Alex Salmond himself came out and said in the second big debate, when
:13:11. > :13:14.he said that we should also have mentioned other options for
:13:15. > :13:18.currency. They were there in the White Paper. I have a favoured
:13:19. > :13:21.option, but there are other options which could have worked as well.
:13:22. > :13:26.Even if my favoured option was not the one that was selected by the
:13:27. > :13:30.Scottish Government. If there is another referendum next couple of
:13:31. > :13:34.years, who is going to lead it for Better Together? Labour, given the
:13:35. > :13:43.state they're in just now, wouldn't it have to be Ruth Davidson?
:13:44. > :13:54.I think that is quite a lot we could learn from other campaigns. Also,
:13:55. > :13:59.the idea that it was not just politicians involved. That is a lot
:14:00. > :14:05.to be said for that. But there has to be a politician leading the
:14:06. > :14:10.campaign, I am not sure. Things may have changed with regard to people
:14:11. > :14:19.listening to politicians. We see this situation with the Labour Party
:14:20. > :14:25.and with Ukip that politicians do not necessarily have the EU of
:14:26. > :14:31.people. But we need to put forward the poor are positives, the merits,
:14:32. > :14:40.and doesn't have to be a politician? Would it be a good idea for Nicola
:14:41. > :14:55.Sturgeon to pin her hopes on Brexit? It is early days. Brexit Has not yet
:14:56. > :15:00.happened. It means we will inevitably be a new fundamentally
:15:01. > :15:06.constitutional arrangement for the United Kingdom as a whole, but also
:15:07. > :15:10.from the people of Scotland. I think it was exaggerated by the fact that
:15:11. > :15:18.the majority of the people of Scotland wanted to remain members of
:15:19. > :15:22.the European Union. Yet, we were outnumbered and outvoted by other
:15:23. > :15:27.people in other parts of the United Kingdom. But people have not had the
:15:28. > :15:35.opportunity to look through the hall implications of Brexit, in terms of
:15:36. > :15:43.not only the constitutional side, but the likes of economy. Once the
:15:44. > :15:46.penny drops, I think people will be alarmed by what will happen as a
:15:47. > :15:53.result of the negotiations. I think people in Scotland would then be in
:15:54. > :16:01.inclined to vote yes in a future referendum campaign. Would you
:16:02. > :16:08.please be weakened by the fact that were staying, you said, if you vote
:16:09. > :16:13.against independence, you will remain in Europe? If you remember,
:16:14. > :16:20.during the referendum, the yes campaign said that if we stay part
:16:21. > :16:25.of the United Kingdom, the National Health Service would be privatised.
:16:26. > :16:35.That has not happened. I do not think it is a certainty in terms of
:16:36. > :16:42.winning a second vote. She make think so, but she is not rushing
:16:43. > :16:47.towards it. What about the argument that we should wait a few years.
:16:48. > :16:53.Alex Salmond is talking about the end of 2018. Is that too soon? I
:16:54. > :17:00.guess, for what it is worth, is that it will take place within the next
:17:01. > :17:05.two years. There is an army of people who they are, not only just
:17:06. > :17:13.supporters of the Scottish National party, but others, who agree that
:17:14. > :17:18.the Scottish National party and the government should be in the week,
:17:19. > :17:23.because they have a mandate from the people, but it has to be a
:17:24. > :17:26.comprehensive and inclusive campaign, embracing people of
:17:27. > :17:31.different political parties and people like myself, who is no longer
:17:32. > :17:36.affiliated to any political party. What is the chance second time
:17:37. > :17:43.round, would it be more difficult? I think there is a lot of impatience,
:17:44. > :17:51.with Brexit regard to. I think many of the arguments have changed, but
:17:52. > :17:54.the principal arguments remains, that we are stronger within the
:17:55. > :18:02.United Kingdom, both socially and culturally. We have to win this
:18:03. > :18:04.argument every team, Frears of course, Dennis only needs to win the
:18:05. > :18:07.argument once. The Scottish government has
:18:08. > :18:10.made its defining mission for this parliamentary term the closing
:18:11. > :18:12.of the attainment gap It wants to turn around a schools
:18:13. > :18:16.system which is failing pupils But critics fear this is just
:18:17. > :18:19.a twin-pronged attack on councils, which are fiercely protective
:18:20. > :18:21.of their pivotal role in the school system,
:18:22. > :18:30.as our education correspondent While state schools have changed
:18:31. > :18:37.hugely over the past century, one thing has remained constant. With a
:18:38. > :18:44.few exceptional cases, the run councils. The relationship between
:18:45. > :18:48.the council and the government with regard to schools are a feature of
:18:49. > :18:55.the system, but the future could be different. In future, it could be a
:18:56. > :19:02.National Service which councils are entrusted to provide. They want to
:19:03. > :19:07.give headteachers more powers. Councils will still have an
:19:08. > :19:15.important role to play, but what would the role be in practice. I
:19:16. > :19:22.have done many things. The government says it wants to close
:19:23. > :19:27.the gap between children from relatively well-off backgrounds to
:19:28. > :19:31.those from Pooler backgrounds. At the school in Renfrewshire, a
:19:32. > :19:40.campaign to improve literacy has been pleased. We presumed that
:19:41. > :19:46.children came from a rich environment of literacy. That is not
:19:47. > :19:55.always the case, so we went back to basics and did a lot of reading for
:19:56. > :19:58.enjoyment. Some of the poor may be given to headteachers to decide just
:19:59. > :20:05.what is right for their own particular school. Head teacher here
:20:06. > :20:13.has the power to do different things that they to raise the level of
:20:14. > :20:16.education for the children here. The Scottish Government believes
:20:17. > :20:22.reforming the system could make it easier first seems like this to
:20:23. > :20:28.happen across the country. Councils fear a twin pronged attack. The few
:20:29. > :20:34.we will be attacked by the individual schools and the regional
:20:35. > :20:42.boards. It does feel like it is an attack on local government. It is
:20:43. > :20:47.the view that national politicians seem to think they know best, when
:20:48. > :20:52.they do not always do so. We started off with the discussion, a very weak
:20:53. > :20:58.consultation, based on the principle that I believe it is in the best
:20:59. > :21:04.interests of the education journey of the young people of Scotland that
:21:05. > :21:08.decisions on the education are taken as closely as possible to the
:21:09. > :21:14.schools. I wanted to open up the debate about the port of the great
:21:15. > :21:20.issues, the right questions and the rate decisions taken with regard to
:21:21. > :21:25.young people in schools. Some things are not on the agenda. Secondary
:21:26. > :21:29.schools will remain comprehensive. And there are no plans for schools
:21:30. > :21:38.to simply opt out of council control. If somebody wants to opt
:21:39. > :21:43.out of control, we know the appeal to want to do that, so be it. I do
:21:44. > :21:50.not think there is such a huge demand for grammar schools across
:21:51. > :21:56.Scotland. If someone wanted to start one or a free school, we would
:21:57. > :22:00.address that as it came up. The consultation will go on for several
:22:01. > :22:05.months, but will the end result change what or children can achieve
:22:06. > :22:07.or merely weaken the influence of councils?
:22:08. > :22:10.Joining me to discuss that and the rest of today's stories
:22:11. > :22:12.are Herald journalist Marianne Taylor and Campbell Gunn,
:22:13. > :22:15.who was a Special Adviser to the First Minister for three
:22:16. > :22:16.years and, before that, was Political Editor
:22:17. > :22:29.Why is John Swinney so keen to take some powers away from councils and
:22:30. > :22:36.give that decision-making to schools. It is to do with closing
:22:37. > :22:40.this attainment gap, which was in the Scottish National party
:22:41. > :22:50.manifesto. There are certain things I would like to have seen going
:22:51. > :22:56.further. Local authorities have not handled education particularly well.
:22:57. > :23:02.If the Scottish Government is going to set up these regional boards. At
:23:03. > :23:07.least with local councils, we can elect them. We will be
:23:08. > :23:16.accountability be? It is all about closing the attainment gap. Is this
:23:17. > :23:23.something pavements will welcome? I think they probably will. If you
:23:24. > :23:30.look at what happened in London, with regard to Pooler area is the,
:23:31. > :23:36.the Aleut headteachers, who knew the areas, the people in the children,
:23:37. > :23:42.and give them control. We need new ideas in education up here and this
:23:43. > :23:48.one may well work. Do you think schools can close the attainment
:23:49. > :23:54.gap? Is your background very important? It is very complex. If
:23:55. > :24:01.the were easy answers, they would've worked by no. You need other ideas.
:24:02. > :24:11.The other idea may not necessarily be grammar schools. The meat want to
:24:12. > :24:16.locate using the best graduate teachers in these schools. We have
:24:17. > :24:21.here at these comments from Alex Salmond about it being the end of
:24:22. > :24:25.2018 when we get a second referendum. Do you think she will go
:24:26. > :24:31.for it before the end of 2018? I think anyone who says they know what
:24:32. > :24:40.is going to happen does not know what is going to happen! We do not
:24:41. > :24:49.know whether the Prime Minister will trigger Article 50 full. We thought
:24:50. > :24:54.that she might trigger it in February of next year. No, we are
:24:55. > :25:04.not so sure. Will there be a general election before it has trigger? Does
:25:05. > :25:13.Nicola Sturgeon fired the starting gun before she knows the result of
:25:14. > :25:21.the Brexit negotiations. The Prime Minister is in a very difficult
:25:22. > :25:28.situation. Effectively, the fort south of the border was to control
:25:29. > :25:32.immigration. Effectively, controlling immigration me real
:25:33. > :25:39.affect entry to the single market. Will people accept that? Would your
:25:40. > :25:49.advice to the Scottish Government be that they have two we can see? Yes,
:25:50. > :25:56.it has to be. There is extreme uncertainty about this post Brexit
:25:57. > :26:02.world. No one understands what is going to happen and that will play
:26:03. > :26:09.into the fears. I would say that this moment we are in allows for new
:26:10. > :26:20.alliances to be made which in the longer term, there may be something
:26:21. > :26:26.in that. With regard to opinion polls, the does not appear to be
:26:27. > :26:33.sustained difference with regard to independence. I think it all depends
:26:34. > :26:39.on the European economic situation. If the United Kingdom is allowed to
:26:40. > :26:49.operate in the single market galea, we will not experience the hardships
:26:50. > :26:53.that many people fear. But if we do not, we will see real lasting
:26:54. > :26:57.consequences and that may or may not change the minds of people. It is
:26:58. > :27:11.very hard at the moment to gauge we're at war call. There has been a
:27:12. > :27:15.move from no to yes and yes to know. Those who have slipped from yes of
:27:16. > :27:18.the to be one back. That is the argument that will have to be made.
:27:19. > :27:20.The Liberal Democrats' UK conference continued in Brighton today.
:27:21. > :27:22.Scottish leader Willie Rennie backed national leader Tim Farron
:27:23. > :27:25.in his call for the terms of EU withdrawal to be put
:27:26. > :27:43.In the direct interests of the country and our democracy, we want
:27:44. > :27:48.to give the public a democratic choice as to whether the Aggie with
:27:49. > :27:59.the Conservative Party with regard to the European Union. Could we
:28:00. > :28:05.actually cope with another referendum, another European Union
:28:06. > :28:11.referendum along with the Scottish independence referendum? We
:28:12. > :28:14.certainly could not. The Liberal Democratic party in an ideal
:28:15. > :28:21.situation to lap up all these centre ground votes. Because of the
:28:22. > :28:29.hangover of the alliance with the Conservative Party, it is simply not
:28:30. > :28:32.going to happen. In the speech today, he talked a lot about the
:28:33. > :28:38.Conservatives and the Scottish National party, but should he be
:28:39. > :28:43.chasing votes from Labour? I am not too sure of the really know what
:28:44. > :28:46.they should be choosing. It is very hard to think who is going to vote
:28:47. > :28:54.for the Liberal Democrats at the moment. I cannot really see we are
:28:55. > :29:03.the next winning Fort is going to come from. What is the effect in
:29:04. > :29:15.Parliament? Very little. They are not even the fourth party. It is a
:29:16. > :29:23.pity, because Rennie it is one of the best performance. In some ways,
:29:24. > :29:24.I feel sorry for him. He has suffered for what his Westminster
:29:25. > :29:27.colleagues have done over the years. That is it for tonight.
:29:28. > :29:39.Thanks for watching. It is the second anniversary of the
:29:40. > :29:43.independence referendum. I am back again tomorrow
:29:44. > :29:46.night at the usual time.