:00:00. > :00:00.The draft bill's finally been unveiled.
:00:00. > :00:28.But is the Scottish Government any closer to triggering IndyRef 2?
:00:29. > :00:41.Hello and welcome. Fresh from his visit to Brussels, I will be asking
:00:42. > :00:47.the minister if made any progress securing Scotland's place in the EU.
:00:48. > :00:51.After the government publishes a confrontational on a key bill, is it
:00:52. > :00:56.a question of when the referendum will be? And the boundary changes
:00:57. > :00:59.that could see Scotland losing its only Tory and Labour MPs.
:01:00. > :01:02."A consultation on a draft bill should it prove that independence
:01:03. > :01:06.It's not the most rousing call to arms.
:01:07. > :01:08.But, coming just days ahead of Nicola Sturgeon's planned meeting
:01:09. > :01:10.with Theresa May in Downing Street, it may just bolster
:01:11. > :01:15.the First Minister's negotiating hand.
:01:16. > :01:17.Of course, without making an actual commitment
:01:18. > :01:20.to hold a second referendum, far less naming a date,
:01:21. > :01:22.there's a question of just how much leverage the First Minister
:01:23. > :01:45.Orton has arrived. Following the summer heat of the EU referendum
:01:46. > :01:51.campaign, it seems our politicians are now digging in for the winter.
:01:52. > :01:55.Today, the Scottish Government published its proposed bill for a
:01:56. > :02:01.second independence referendum, but how much does that actually had to
:02:02. > :02:04.do with winning independence? -- Autumn has arrived. Scottish
:02:05. > :02:09.ministers have been in Brussels this week for talks on what Brexit might
:02:10. > :02:12.look like for Scotland. They want Scotland to stay in the single
:02:13. > :02:19.market, even if the rest of the UK does not. And now the government
:02:20. > :02:23.says it has to be ready to hold IndyRef two fit things Scottish
:02:24. > :02:27.interests are not being represented. We have a mandate, in terms of this
:02:28. > :02:32.question coming from Scottish parliament elections that we won.
:02:33. > :02:37.The ball is now on the court of the UK Government to respect how
:02:38. > :02:42.Scotland has voted and secure Scotland's place in Europe. So it is
:02:43. > :02:46.over to them to respond positively to that. But that is why we are
:02:47. > :02:50.keeping independent as an option on the table, to ensure that if
:02:51. > :02:55.necessary that is what we were used to protect our place in Europe. But
:02:56. > :03:02.the SNP's opponents say that is not the answer. I don't think any of the
:03:03. > :03:07.questions that Brexit raises are answered by ripping Scotland out of
:03:08. > :03:14.our own union of Nations that is worth four times more in trade. And
:03:15. > :03:24.I do not accept that when the clip sturgeon says that I voted to remain
:03:25. > :03:28.and that means a vote against independent. Threatening to rot --
:03:29. > :03:36.rip Scotland out of our union does not solve it. They are determined to
:03:37. > :03:43.go ahead with the plans. One expert says a referendum could be held next
:03:44. > :03:47.May. But there could be a legal stumbling block. Any bill passed by
:03:48. > :03:51.the Parliament has to be within its competence. There were doubts
:03:52. > :03:55.expressed last time whether the Scottish Parliament have the
:03:56. > :03:59.competence to vote and legislate for a referendum. This time round, the
:04:00. > :04:04.Scottish Government says they will ask the UK Government to make an
:04:05. > :04:08.order under section 30 of the Scotland act to authorise the
:04:09. > :04:12.referendum. That is what they did at the last referendum. But I doubt
:04:13. > :04:17.that the UK Government would agree to that. On the Scottish Government
:04:18. > :04:22.still faces potentially the biggest challenge of all, opinion polls
:04:23. > :04:27.suggest no major upsurge in support of independence as the Brexit vote.
:04:28. > :04:32.With a narrow majority still said to be in favour of Scotland remaining
:04:33. > :04:35.in the UK, the independence movement right now, at least, faces a big
:04:36. > :04:37.challenge of winning another referendum.
:04:38. > :04:40.Well, earlier I spoke to the Scottish Government's
:04:41. > :04:50.You had a perfectly good referendum Bill a couple of years ago. Why do
:04:51. > :04:56.you need to have a consultation on a new draft bill? You can get it
:04:57. > :05:01.better. There was universal acclaim that the referendum was very well
:05:02. > :05:06.run. About the changes in electoral law since then. It is important
:05:07. > :05:10.though is reflected within the bill. For example, if I tell you people
:05:11. > :05:14.who have a proxy have to be on the register. That was not the case two
:05:15. > :05:18.years ago. Verification of postal votes as well. That was not
:05:19. > :05:23.compulsory, although it was done. It will now be compulsory. So it is
:05:24. > :05:27.important that we do that. And also important that we say to people that
:05:28. > :05:31.the referendum as an option within the options we are considering. It
:05:32. > :05:36.has to be an option. And in the manifesto, which I was elected and
:05:37. > :05:41.the SNP was elected on in May it said specifically that the
:05:42. > :05:44.referendum could be triggered by change of circumstances, material
:05:45. > :05:48.change and specifically said that would be from, for example, trying
:05:49. > :05:54.to take the people of Scotland out of the EU against our will. Is this
:05:55. > :05:59.being published? Is it coincidental that the school sturgeon is having a
:06:00. > :06:06.meeting with Theresa May next week. Nicola Sturgeon --. No, there are a
:06:07. > :06:11.range of options being considered. But this is a fast-moving situation.
:06:12. > :06:14.Over the last month, we have had an enormous amount of developments. It
:06:15. > :06:19.is important that things are sequenced well. In order to put the
:06:20. > :06:23.option of independence alongside the other options, you have to allow
:06:24. > :06:26.legislation to do that. At the conference last week, the First
:06:27. > :06:30.Minister made it clear that she was sending a signal to the Prime
:06:31. > :06:34.Minister that I am going to publicist Bill and I'm not scared to
:06:35. > :06:41.use that option. -- published this bill. Since then, to May has made it
:06:42. > :06:44.clear that she is not prepared to negotiate a separate deal for
:06:45. > :06:48.Scotland. So the tactic is not working. There are special
:06:49. > :06:56.circumstances being discussed for the City of London, for bankers, but
:06:57. > :07:00.not for Scottish people. But she has made it clear that there will be no
:07:01. > :07:07.membership of the single market, no free movement of Labour in any part
:07:08. > :07:12.of the UK. Why not then just trigger a referendum now? Because we are in
:07:13. > :07:15.the process of negotiation. Quite rightly, the Scottish Government
:07:16. > :07:18.said the Scottish Parliament, we will look at the options. We will
:07:19. > :07:22.negotiate in good faith and seriously. That is what we intend to
:07:23. > :07:28.do. We have a meeting in London to take that process on. But we have to
:07:29. > :07:31.do in Scotland say our interests come first. Not diktats from
:07:32. > :07:36.elsewhere. Our interests come first. And we have to look at the right
:07:37. > :07:41.options, that includes free movement and access to the single market. You
:07:42. > :07:45.say makes progress. You have set the bar pretty high. You have made it
:07:46. > :07:49.clear that you want full membership of the single market and free
:07:50. > :07:54.movement of Labour. Are you saying that if you don't get that, nothing
:07:55. > :07:57.less will be acceptable? Cannot understand you would say that
:07:58. > :08:02.setting the bar high. That is what we got. Our principle is no
:08:03. > :08:05.detriment. Why should the people of Scotland go forward with less than
:08:06. > :08:09.they have now, because of a decision that was made in Scotland? But is
:08:10. > :08:12.not setting the bar high. That is being very realistic about the
:08:13. > :08:16.rights and expectations of the people of Scotland. You could not go
:08:17. > :08:20.to the Scottish people and say, if you vote for independence, we would
:08:21. > :08:26.have uninterrupted membership of the EU. No European has said that would
:08:27. > :08:36.be the case. We would likely have to go out of Europe and find our work
:08:37. > :08:39.trying to get back in. I don't think that is necessarily true. This is a
:08:40. > :08:41.complex set of circumstances, but have never been experienced before.
:08:42. > :08:44.Some people will cite the reunification of Germany. Europe
:08:45. > :08:48.adapted to those. And Europe can adapt and other doubt. It comes down
:08:49. > :08:53.to what the heads of member states thing. The Spanish by Miniter told
:08:54. > :08:58.to reason me that Spain will support the integrity of the UK and will not
:08:59. > :09:03.encourage any kind of succession is related to Brexit. -- Spanish Prime
:09:04. > :09:10.Minister. But the Spanish have said has been consistent. They have said
:09:11. > :09:14.the internal constitutional order is what they will respect. And that
:09:15. > :09:21.commenced independence through a democratic process. They will not
:09:22. > :09:26.interfere. The constitutional order here demands the UK Government pays
:09:27. > :09:31.attention to what the devolved administrations think and do. We are
:09:32. > :09:34.part of the process. That needs to be understood in London. You had a
:09:35. > :09:41.meeting in Brussels yesterday with the European Parliament's top Brexit
:09:42. > :09:46.negotiator. Has he given any indication that he would entertain a
:09:47. > :09:51.bespoke deal for Scotland? Everyone I speak to make the same point. This
:09:52. > :09:55.is an internal matter for the UK. It has to be done through the internal
:09:56. > :09:59.constitutional processes. For example, concern is expressed that
:10:00. > :10:03.the present right wing Tory government is trying to stop
:10:04. > :10:08.Parliament actually having a view on implementing Article 50. It is
:10:09. > :10:18.important, of course, to speak to the EU officials. Going back to my
:10:19. > :10:20.previous point, you need to be speaking to the European leaders,
:10:21. > :10:22.the leaders of the member states. And over the past year Nicola
:10:23. > :10:25.Sturgeon has not been successful in being able to have any talks with
:10:26. > :10:29.them. I have had to say, we have had endless conversations at official
:10:30. > :10:32.level. And ministers have too. There has been an enormous contact and
:10:33. > :10:39.will continue to be, despite the best efforts... Not with anyone
:10:40. > :10:43.senior. These conversations take place. We need to make sure that
:10:44. > :10:49.Europe at every level understands what Scotland's case is. What have
:10:50. > :10:54.they been saying? You cannot mention names. Have you been told there is
:10:55. > :10:58.support for you? What there is support for is that the UK paid in a
:10:59. > :11:05.proper constitutional manner. It does not want to bully people. And
:11:06. > :11:09.that it actually has the approach to this that will produce some
:11:10. > :11:13.dividends for it and other people. That is the negotiating process
:11:14. > :11:18.within the UK and within the EU, that everyone wants to see take
:11:19. > :11:26.place. So far, the UK has been seen to be wanting on that. Those who are
:11:27. > :11:29.keen on the European project and those who want to make sure that we
:11:30. > :11:31.continue to get the best out of that relationship. Thank you.
:11:32. > :11:33.With me now is the Green's Ross Greer.
:11:34. > :11:39.And in Edinburgh is the Tory's Miles Briggs.
:11:40. > :11:46.Ross, a draft consultation bill. No commitments, no dates. I do getting
:11:47. > :11:50.impatient? No, I think the responsible thing to do is to put
:11:51. > :11:53.this out and see what people think a referendum should look like, if it
:11:54. > :11:58.has to happen. Brexit hasn't actually started to happen yet.
:11:59. > :12:02.Article 50 has not been triggered. It is only right and responsible
:12:03. > :12:06.that we have a referendum on the table if that turns out to be the
:12:07. > :12:10.only option on the best one for protecting our interests, economic,
:12:11. > :12:16.social, worker's writes, protections from Europe. The Tories are getting
:12:17. > :12:22.animated about this. But it is an innocuous document, isn't it? It is.
:12:23. > :12:24.But I think it is important that we have not seen the Scottish
:12:25. > :12:29.Government move forward from this. Two years ago, we had a long debate
:12:30. > :12:33.about this. The people of Scotland spoke. The Scottish Government is
:12:34. > :12:36.now not actually recognising that result and not listening to the
:12:37. > :12:39.people of Scotland. I think that is where a lot of people are
:12:40. > :12:42.disappointed today. As was mentioned, this seems to be more
:12:43. > :12:48.about trying to generate a threat. Actually, Scottish Government should
:12:49. > :12:51.be speaking to the UK to get the best deal they can. But something
:12:52. > :12:57.called Brexit has happened. Everything has changed. Brexit has
:12:58. > :13:01.taken place, but that was a vote from the UK level. And we as a UK
:13:02. > :13:06.are going to have to negotiate to get the best possible deal for every
:13:07. > :13:09.part of our country. That is where we are Scottish Conservatives have
:13:10. > :13:17.tried to get the Scottish Government focus. I'm sorry to say that Mike
:13:18. > :13:18.Russell is saying he is in the middle of negotiations on this. He
:13:19. > :13:28.is clearly using this now Ross, should he be concentrating
:13:29. > :13:32.more on the negotiations with Theresa May? The UK Government will
:13:33. > :13:36.not let the Scottish Government work with them. I am not here to become
:13:37. > :13:40.the Scottish Government's behalf, but it is plain to see. Theresa may
:13:41. > :13:44.has made it clear there will be no special deal for Scotland, but she's
:13:45. > :13:47.happy to negotiate a special deal for the City of London, that we will
:13:48. > :13:53.have to contribute towards. She will not permit the Scottish Government
:13:54. > :13:58.to be round the table in these negotiations. So what Miles saying
:13:59. > :14:01.is nonsense. The Scottish Government cannot work with the UK Government
:14:02. > :14:05.because the UK Government will not let them. The responsible thing to
:14:06. > :14:08.do is to have this on the table because our mandate from the
:14:09. > :14:12.Scottish people is to protect their interests. If it turns out the only
:14:13. > :14:15.way to protect their interests is to give them a choice on independence
:14:16. > :14:21.for Scotland, that is what we should do because that is how democracies
:14:22. > :14:30.work. Miles, you obviously don't agree with Scottish independence,
:14:31. > :14:33.but as a negotiating tactic, it is a strong hand for the First Minister
:14:34. > :14:37.to hold, by saying, if we don't get what we want, we can trigger this
:14:38. > :14:39.independence referendum. Scotland has two governments, the Holyrood
:14:40. > :14:44.government and the Westminster government. I would like to see them
:14:45. > :14:48.both working together and not being able to not trust each other. In
:14:49. > :14:50.Westminster, the feeling is increasingly that the Scottish
:14:51. > :14:54.Government have set out where they are going to take this, which is to
:14:55. > :14:57.fight towards another independence referendum, which was rejected just
:14:58. > :15:02.two years ago and the polls show there is no appetite for another
:15:03. > :15:08.one. I think it is time the Scottish Government listens to people instead
:15:09. > :15:10.of playing games with this. Miles, the Westminster government has to
:15:11. > :15:14.transfer the authority to the Scottish Parliament to hold a
:15:15. > :15:18.referendum under the section 30 order. Would Theresa May be morally
:15:19. > :15:23.bound to do that if there was a majority in the Scottish Parliament
:15:24. > :15:29.to back this Bill? As with two years ago with the referendum, Westminster
:15:30. > :15:34.has the constitutional legal right to announce on this. That was a
:15:35. > :15:39.joint agreement that there would be a referendum. I don't believe the
:15:40. > :15:42.people in Scotland want another referendum. I would like to see the
:15:43. > :15:48.UK Government listen to the people of Scotland. When you look across
:15:49. > :15:51.Scotland, more people are against a referendum and that is increasingly
:15:52. > :15:57.becoming the case. Does that mean you would stand in the way of a
:15:58. > :16:00.referendum? At the moment, we have a minority SNP government. Ross stood
:16:01. > :16:04.on a platform that he would only support a vote in parliament if a
:16:05. > :16:11.million people signed a petition. That was in your manifesto. It does
:16:12. > :16:15.say that if a new referendum is to happen, it should come about by the
:16:16. > :16:20.will of the people. At the moment, there is no clear will on the part
:16:21. > :16:26.of the people. The people of Scotland elected a parliament where
:16:27. > :16:30.the parliament is open to a second referendum. We obviously support
:16:31. > :16:34.independence. The people elected a parliament that raised the
:16:35. > :16:39.possibility of a second referendum. Plenty of people voted for the SNP
:16:40. > :16:44.who do not support independence. The opinion polls do not show a clear
:16:45. > :16:51.majority in favour. The opinion polls have shown a shift in both
:16:52. > :16:55.directions. Miles dodged the question. He's not willing to
:16:56. > :16:58.address directly that if the Scottish parliament votes to have a
:16:59. > :17:05.referendum, the parliament that the people of Scotland votes for a
:17:06. > :17:08.referendum, his government might deny the people of Scotland the
:17:09. > :17:13.chance to have another vote on the future of our country. I would be
:17:14. > :17:16.interested to hear a straight yes or no, will the Conservatives at
:17:17. > :17:22.Westminster veto something that the Scottish parliament voted for?
:17:23. > :17:26.Discusses Parliament has not had a budget. I'm interested to hear Ross
:17:27. > :17:29.backtracking on the manifesto he was elected on. There are two Greens in
:17:30. > :17:33.my region in Lothian who said they would put this forward and they
:17:34. > :17:38.would need a petition of a million people. There are now backtracking
:17:39. > :17:42.on that. There are a lot of green voters who are unionist voters would
:17:43. > :17:45.be angry with them. In the coming weeks, we will need to see what the
:17:46. > :17:51.green position is on this. In terms of this vote and Westminster, both
:17:52. > :17:56.governments will have to work on this. Scottish Conservatives, we
:17:57. > :18:00.want to turn the page on the constitutional arguments. Scotland
:18:01. > :18:04.had a vote and it is time the SNP to recognise that the people of
:18:05. > :18:06.Scotland decided to stay part of the UK. We have to leave it there.
:18:07. > :18:09.Today, the Secretary of State for Scotland defied the old adage
:18:10. > :18:10.that turkeys don't vote for Christmas,
:18:11. > :18:13.when he embraced a proposal from the Boundary Commission
:18:14. > :18:15.to reduce the number of MPs in the House of Commons.
:18:16. > :18:18.The plans, intended to make constituencies
:18:19. > :18:21.across the UK more equal, would see all but three
:18:22. > :18:23.of Scotland's Westminster constituencies change.
:18:24. > :18:26.That could threaten not only David Mundell, the last remaining
:18:27. > :18:30.Tory MP here, but also Labour's last commoner north of the border, too.
:18:31. > :18:34.Labour and the SNP have described it as "unacceptable".
:18:35. > :18:37.Earlier, to try and shed light on what might be afoot,
:18:38. > :18:45.I spoke to John Curtice, who happens to be in Brussels tonight.
:18:46. > :18:52.So John, what do the boundary commission's proposals mean for
:18:53. > :18:55.Scotland? Their proposals mean that because the number of Parliamentary
:18:56. > :19:00.constituencies is being reduced across the UK as a whole from 650 to
:19:01. > :19:03.600, Scotland has to take its share of that cut and instead of the 59
:19:04. > :19:12.MPs we have at the moment, there will only be 53 from 2020. The two
:19:13. > :19:15.Island constituencies, Orkney and Shetland, those are protected. So
:19:16. > :19:20.although they are very small, they remain as they are. But across the
:19:21. > :19:26.mainland, six fewer constituencies. The politics of this are potentially
:19:27. > :19:29.fascinating. Firstly, Ian Murray's seat, Ian Murray, the only remaining
:19:30. > :19:35.Labour MP to survive the tsunami of 18 months ago, his Edinburgh South
:19:36. > :19:38.seat is cut down the middle and it is extremely unlikely that he would
:19:39. > :19:47.manage to win either of the two seats into which his seat is
:19:48. > :19:50.divided. But equally, with this being done at the instigation of the
:19:51. > :19:56.Conservative government, David Mundell in the borders, his new
:19:57. > :20:00.constituency certainly looks less winnable for him than his existing
:20:01. > :20:05.dome free show constituency -- Dumfriesshire. And if everyone voted
:20:06. > :20:09.the same way as they had done, he also would have lost in 2015,
:20:10. > :20:13.primarily because his new constituency goes much further north
:20:14. > :20:16.into South Lanarkshire, taking in places like fourth, where is he
:20:17. > :20:21.loses some relatively good ground for him in some of the more rural
:20:22. > :20:25.parts of his constituency. So it is not good for David Mundell. To that
:20:26. > :20:29.extent at least, not good news for either Conservative or Labour. 18
:20:30. > :20:35.months ago, they could have been without either of their Scottish
:20:36. > :20:40.MPs. But of course, because we are talking about the fact that the SNP
:20:41. > :20:47.have 56 out of 59 seats, if you are going to take away six, most of them
:20:48. > :20:53.will be SNP seats. There were certainly be a substantial game of
:20:54. > :20:56.musical chairs. Many MPs will see their constituencies substantially
:20:57. > :21:00.redrawn, but many of them will say, I think this is the seat that is
:21:01. > :21:05.closest to my current one, and they will try to bag that. But there are
:21:06. > :21:09.some who are potentially at risk. Two relatively well-known names for
:21:10. > :21:13.whom that is true are the deputy SNP leader Stewart Hosie, his Dundee
:21:14. > :21:17.East constituency pretty much disappears and is swallowed up by
:21:18. > :21:23.Angus. Equally, Ian Blackford, the MP for Ross and sky, his is the seat
:21:24. > :21:30.that effectively disappears as the Highlands loses one of its seats.
:21:31. > :21:39.Therefore, some SNP MPs are looking at a shaky foundation at the moment.
:21:40. > :21:43.If you look at what has happened in local government by-elections over
:21:44. > :21:46.the last 18 months since last year's general election, you discover that
:21:47. > :21:51.on average, Labour's vote has been down by about 13 points. The SNP
:21:52. > :21:56.vote has been up by about 12 points, and the opinion polls are now better
:21:57. > :22:02.for the SNP and worse than Labour than they were in 2012, when local
:22:03. > :22:05.elections were last fought. The 2012 local elections were relatively
:22:06. > :22:11.disappointing for the SNP, certainly by the standards of 2015 and 2016.
:22:12. > :22:14.But if those local government by-elections are any guide, it looks
:22:15. > :22:17.as though the SNP could well win control of a dozen councils in
:22:18. > :22:24.Scotland and be the largest party in the other 12. The final bit of the
:22:25. > :22:30.Scottish jigsaw that has so far eluded the SNP, being the dominant
:22:31. > :22:34.party in Scottish local government, may also be a prize they could win.
:22:35. > :22:36.Professor John Curtice in Brussels, of all places.
:22:37. > :22:38.Joining me to discuss that and the rest of today's stories
:22:39. > :22:40.are Professor of Global Security
:22:41. > :22:41.at Glasgow University, Peter Jackson.
:22:42. > :22:43.And Campbell Gunn, who was a Special Adviser
:22:44. > :22:44.to the First Minister for three years,
:22:45. > :22:51.and before that was Political Editor at the Sunday Post.
:22:52. > :22:56.Campbell, these boundary changes. The SNP are very much against them.
:22:57. > :23:00.I bought in one sense, they might be good for them -- they might be for
:23:01. > :23:06.them because they could get rid of Scotland's last Labour MP. It is an
:23:07. > :23:09.anti democratic process if you are reducing the size of the House of
:23:10. > :23:13.Commons, which was elected, and increasing the size of the House of
:23:14. > :23:17.Lords, which was an elected. The House of Lords is the second-largest
:23:18. > :23:21.unelected body in the world after the Chinese assembly. It could be a
:23:22. > :23:29.worry for Scottish democracy if there were no Tory or Labour MPs in
:23:30. > :23:34.Scotland. Let's talk about the draft Referendum Bill. Pete, do you think
:23:35. > :23:38.Westminster will grab Holyrood powers to hold the bill once it is
:23:39. > :23:44.published and if it passes through the Scottish Parliament? To hold a
:23:45. > :23:48.referendum? It would be very difficult for the UK Government to
:23:49. > :23:53.deny a referendum against after what has happened and after the changes
:23:54. > :23:56.that have taken place in the UK's international position as a result
:23:57. > :24:03.of the vote to leave the European Union. I can't see the UK Government
:24:04. > :24:07.in Westminster telling the Scottish Parliament, which is elected by
:24:08. > :24:10.Scottish people, that it can't hold this referendum. It would fan the
:24:11. > :24:13.flames of independence to the point where it would be difficult to see
:24:14. > :24:19.Scotland not becoming independent eventually. What do you think of
:24:20. > :24:23.this draft Referendum Bill? As it is part of the necessary process you
:24:24. > :24:28.have to go through, or is it a sign of the SNP playing for time? No, it
:24:29. > :24:34.is a part of the process you have to go through. The SNP were elected on
:24:35. > :24:38.a manifesto which promised that if there was a change in circumstances,
:24:39. > :24:45.they would bring forward the bill. So they have the right to do this.
:24:46. > :24:49.As Peter says, technically of course, the Westminster government
:24:50. > :24:54.could allow this -- they could block this, but politically, I don't see
:24:55. > :24:59.how they could do that if the Scottish Government voted in favour
:25:00. > :25:03.of it. It would really fan the flames of independence. But what if
:25:04. > :25:07.the SNP said they wanted to hold its next year? Could Theresa May said, I
:25:08. > :25:14.am still negotiating with Europe, not just now? That is possible. If
:25:15. > :25:19.Theresa May then said, I will allow you to hold it, but in a certain
:25:20. > :25:28.time, the Scottish Government would accept that. But there are so many
:25:29. > :25:31.unknowns and this is such a fluid situation that predicting the timing
:25:32. > :25:37.of a referendum or whether it would happen is really up in the air.
:25:38. > :25:41.Peter, have a try what dates do you think? I don't think there is any
:25:42. > :25:44.sense in having a referendum until we have any clear idea of what deal
:25:45. > :25:47.is being negotiated by the Westminster government to leave the
:25:48. > :25:52.European Union. Otherwise, what would we be voting on? That is a
:25:53. > :25:56.problem, because Nicola Sturgeon says she would want to hold this
:25:57. > :26:01.before the end of the article 15 negotiating period, which doesn't
:26:02. > :26:06.give her much time. It gives her until 2019. If I was betting, which
:26:07. > :26:10.I wouldn't because it is so fluid, I would say it would be towards the
:26:11. > :26:14.end of that rather than towards the beginning of the process. Let's talk
:26:15. > :26:19.about Philip Green. MPs have backed a call to the former BHS owner to be
:26:20. > :26:22.stripped of his knighthood. Here is what Ian Blackford, the SNP's
:26:23. > :26:28.pension spokesperson at Westminster, had to say about it. Philip Green's
:26:29. > :26:32.week apology is a case of too little, too late. He lined his
:26:33. > :26:36.pockets and didn't stop to think about his employees. Campbell, how
:26:37. > :26:42.likely is it that Mr Greene will lose his knighthood? Sir Philip
:26:43. > :26:46.Green, rather! It seems likely, although this debate was pretty
:26:47. > :26:48.meaningless. That was a hanging jury today. They were out to criticise
:26:49. > :26:56.him, no matter what. There have only been about half a
:26:57. > :27:00.dozen people who have been stripped of a knighthood over the period. I
:27:01. > :27:03.believe the first one was Sir Roger Casement during the First World War.
:27:04. > :27:10.Then I don't think there were any until Anthony Blunt. Casement was
:27:11. > :27:14.convicted. Blunt was never convicted of anything. Fred Goodwin was never
:27:15. > :27:18.convicted of anything. Lester Piggott was. I'm trying to pick who
:27:19. > :27:24.else has been stripped of a knighthood. It is a committee of the
:27:25. > :27:28.great and good of the civil service, permanent secretaries, who formed
:27:29. > :27:31.this forfeiture committee. It is up to them. Peter, could this detract
:27:32. > :27:34.from the debate about former employees getting access to their
:27:35. > :27:42.pensions? That is the key point. It sounds an unfavourable light on
:27:43. > :27:48.the honours system generally, in my view. But the key outcome of the
:27:49. > :27:54.whole process should be these people getting access to pensions to which
:27:55. > :27:59.they have a right, into which they were paying. It is world statistics
:28:00. > :28:02.day-to-day. Of course, we see lots of figures flying about when it
:28:03. > :28:06.comes to political debates, like these figures behind me. Campbell,
:28:07. > :28:13.no one believes in figures any more. We live in a post-truth era, don't
:28:14. > :28:18.we? Yes, there are lies, damned lies and statistics. Some statistics are
:28:19. > :28:22.quite straightforward. If you look at the number of police who are
:28:23. > :28:26.employed by Police Scotland and the Scottish Government say we have 1000
:28:27. > :28:34.more, that is easily counted. But if you look at jail figures, they are
:28:35. > :28:39.such a shot in the dark. Some statistics are Kay, others not at
:28:40. > :28:41.all. We have to leave it there. We only had a fraction of the time we
:28:42. > :28:53.expected on that last answer. We will be back on Monday night at
:28:54. > :28:54.10.30. Good morning Scotland is on Radio Scotland from 6am tomorrow
:28:55. > :29:28.morning. From all of us, bye-bye. DINAH WASHINGTON:
:29:29. > :29:33.# Now you say you love me