Part 1

:00:09. > :00:13.The people of Scotland have voted in record numbers, on the future of

:00:14. > :00:19.their nation. Will they make history by choosing the path of

:00:20. > :00:23.independence, or have they decided to stay within the United Kingdom?

:00:24. > :00:46.We're standing by to bring you the people's verdict.

:00:47. > :00:51.For 300 years, Scotland has been joined in political union with

:00:52. > :00:56.England, a United Kingdom now which includes Wales and Northern Ireland.

:00:57. > :00:59.Tonight, we will discover, after this very highly-charged referendum

:01:00. > :01:04.campaign, whether that union with Scotland is to be dissolved. It is

:01:05. > :01:07.without question the biggest democratic decision in British

:01:08. > :01:11.history, with profound implications for the people of Scotland and of

:01:12. > :01:17.course for the other three nation of the UK. Alex Salmond, the First

:01:18. > :01:21.Minister of Scotland, has spent a lifetime probably dreaming of this

:01:22. > :01:26.opportunity. His Yes Campaign was way behind in the polls for quite a

:01:27. > :01:30.long time, just a months ago things changed. The situation seemed to be

:01:31. > :01:36.adjusting, in his favour, victory has seemed within reach. But he's

:01:37. > :01:41.faced the revived No campaign in the past few weeks, driven principally

:01:42. > :01:46.by Labour's Gordon Brown and with the appearance too of other

:01:47. > :01:51.Westminster party leaders. With us in the studio tonight we have senior

:01:52. > :01:55.representatives of the Yes and No camps. We will talk to them shortly.

:01:56. > :01:58.They are set ling in for a long night after what has been a very

:01:59. > :02:03.long campaign. Good to have you with us. Alongside those who have been

:02:04. > :02:07.reporting on every twist and turned of this rather intense and sometimes

:02:08. > :02:12.fractious campaign. We will hear from some who have agonised too over

:02:13. > :02:16.which way to vote. They are here keeping us company. We will find out

:02:17. > :02:20.how they made up their minds. Good to see them with us. Our results

:02:21. > :02:25.team, waiting patiently to get those results to your scenes as soon as

:02:26. > :02:29.possible. We have experts examining the numbers looking at all the

:02:30. > :02:35.trends, trying to predict which way things are likely to go. The team,

:02:36. > :02:39.lead of course, by Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University.

:02:40. > :02:43.Good to have John with us. We will be with him in a second. To guide us

:02:44. > :02:48.through this electoral landscape, to weigh up what is at stake, we have

:02:49. > :02:55.my good colleague, Jeremy Vine. Jeremy. Huw, huge questions in the

:02:56. > :02:58.balance tonight, not least what happens to Scotland's oil. Is there

:02:59. > :03:03.enough to fund an independent Scotland? Also, welcome back what

:03:04. > :03:08.about the currency -- what about the currency, will Scotland be able to

:03:09. > :03:11.share the pound? How about Trident. The nuclear deterrent is in

:03:12. > :03:15.Scotland. The SNP has promised to remove it. Some absolutely massive

:03:16. > :03:31.issues in play, in the coming hours. Let us give you a real sense of our

:03:32. > :03:35.location here at the headquarters of BBC Scotland, we're at Pacific Quay

:03:36. > :03:38.on the banks of the Clyde. Many of you will remember the venues. Great

:03:39. > :03:41.venues for the hugely successful Commonwealth Games this summer. This

:03:42. > :03:45.is where we're based tonight. This is where we will be broadcasting the

:03:46. > :03:51.result of this all-important referendum on the nation's future.

:03:52. > :03:55.Well, the counting of course is the all-important process now. The

:03:56. > :04:04.polling stations across Scotland opened at 7.00am this morning. They

:04:05. > :04:07.closed at 10.00pm, 46 minutes ago, early indications are the turnout

:04:08. > :04:12.has been exceptionally high. We know a record 4.3 million people were

:04:13. > :04:16.registered to vote. That is 97% of those eligible to do so. Including,

:04:17. > :04:24.for the first time, many thousands of 16 and 17-year-olds. Well, the

:04:25. > :04:30.leaders, out early this morning, casting their votes. Alex Salmond,

:04:31. > :04:34.the First Minister, voting in his home patch of Aberdeenshire.

:04:35. > :04:36.Alistair Darling, who has been leading the Better Together

:04:37. > :04:42.Campaign, in his home area of Edinburgh. That is where his

:04:43. > :04:45.parliamentary constituency is. Also voting today, the Deputy First

:04:46. > :04:49.Minister, Nicola Sturgeon of the SNP and she was voting in her Scottish

:04:50. > :04:56.Parliamentary constituency in Glasgow. So, all of those votes

:04:57. > :04:59.carefully cast. There we are in Fife, Gordon Brown, the former Prime

:05:00. > :05:06.Minister, who, in the last two weeks, has become a very prominent

:05:07. > :05:10.figure in the campaign. These are the scenes that really matter now

:05:11. > :05:17.then. 32 counting centres across Scotland. That is Renfrewshire where

:05:18. > :05:22.they are busy at work. We are cover counts from the Highlands down to

:05:23. > :05:26.Dundee, Glasgow and Edinburgh, down to the Scottish Borders. On the way

:05:27. > :05:31.we will pay a visit, for example, to Falkirk, to see what that will tell

:05:32. > :05:38.us about the potential result. And, we'll be in Angus too. Angus, with a

:05:39. > :05:42.long tradition of sending SNP representatives to Westminster. An

:05:43. > :05:50.interesting prospect there. We will be very, very keen to see what the

:05:51. > :05:57.early signals are from Angus. All of those counts busy and verifying

:05:58. > :06:02.papers. Having a look clearly in the first half or so. We will get some

:06:03. > :06:07.sense, probably, of kind of turnout involved. A very dramatic moment

:06:08. > :06:10.tonight. I should say, of course, don't forget, that although people

:06:11. > :06:16.are keeping a close eye on things here in Scotland, just imagine the

:06:17. > :06:19.intense interest too in Downing Street? David Cameron will be

:06:20. > :06:25.following the events there for us and probably will have something to

:06:26. > :06:29.say about them early in the morning. With me our political editor, Nick

:06:30. > :06:32.Robinson, who will be with us throughout the night and the BBC's

:06:33. > :06:36.Sarah Smith. She has followed every day of the campaign. Good to have

:06:37. > :06:40.you both with us. I suppose, I want you, Sarah, at this stage, given

:06:41. > :06:44.that you have been, you know, on top of all of this material, there has

:06:45. > :06:49.been lots of claim and counter claim, let us put that to one side.

:06:50. > :06:52.What does tonight mean? It's hard to exaggerate the enormous importance

:06:53. > :06:56.of this vote tonight, not just for Scotland, but for the whole of the

:06:57. > :06:59.UK. The Scottish people who voted today made the most important

:07:00. > :07:03.political decision of their life times. They are not just deciding

:07:04. > :07:07.who will will run things for the next few years. They have decided

:07:08. > :07:15.the fate of the whole of the United Kingdom for quite possibly hundreds

:07:16. > :07:19.of years to come. The question was - should Scotland be an independent

:07:20. > :07:23.country, yes or no? If Scotland votes Yes to that, that is the end

:07:24. > :07:26.of Great Britain. There continue to be a United Kingdom of England,

:07:27. > :07:29.Wales and Northern Ireland. Britain will be no more. There will be two

:07:30. > :07:34.separate countries sharing these islands. That will throw British

:07:35. > :07:39.politics into complete turmoil it will utterly transform Scotland.

:07:40. > :07:42.Scotland's always seen itself as a distinct nation, but it's a very

:07:43. > :07:45.different matter to be an independent country to take all the

:07:46. > :07:48.decisions yourself and live with the consequences. The Yes Campaign have

:07:49. > :07:52.argued that country would be a more equal, more fair, more just society,

:07:53. > :07:55.Better Together have told us, it would be a less prosperous country

:07:56. > :07:59.that probably couldn't afford the promises made by the Yes Campaign.

:08:00. > :08:03.We will see tonight what Scotland has decided. Even if it's a No vote,

:08:04. > :08:08.huge changes coming. The UK party leaders have promised more powers to

:08:09. > :08:10.the Scottish Parliament. A massive constitutional shake-up across the

:08:11. > :08:14.whole of the UK it will affect all of these British Isles. Thank you. A

:08:15. > :08:18.sense of the magnitude of the decision we will find out about in

:08:19. > :08:22.the early hours? If it's a Yes vote we know that everything is thrown

:08:23. > :08:26.up. Let us talk about the economy briefly. Pound, oil, debt, to be

:08:27. > :08:31.done. Britain's standing in the world. It's place at the United

:08:32. > :08:35.Nations, the role in the EU? The nature of its defence forces, and in

:08:36. > :08:40.NATO. And, Huw, even if it's not a Yes, there is a question mark over

:08:41. > :08:44.the nature of power throughout the United Kingdom. Not just here in

:08:45. > :08:48.Scotland, but elsewhere. This began as a referendum simply about

:08:49. > :08:51.independence. I say "simply" it's a huge enough question as it is. It

:08:52. > :08:56.turned into a referendum on power. It turned into a referendum on the

:08:57. > :09:00.whole political establishment. Part of the reason this has run away with

:09:01. > :09:03.itself this campaign, this sense that the Westminster establishment

:09:04. > :09:08.simply did not predict what was going to take place in the last few

:09:09. > :09:13.weeks, has been because it's been a verdict in part on them. OK. Nick,

:09:14. > :09:17.more later and Sarah too. We will talk to our guests who have joined

:09:18. > :09:21.us. I should point out one thing, which is rather important. If you

:09:22. > :09:25.are waiting for an exit poll, well, there is no easy way to say this,

:09:26. > :09:29.you're not going to get one. This is a unique event. It's a one-off. We

:09:30. > :09:34.don't believe there is a tried and tested method of doing an exit poll

:09:35. > :09:38.for a referendum on this kind of scale. So that's the reason we don't

:09:39. > :09:42.have an exit poll for you. We are going to have to wait, in the old

:09:43. > :09:47.fashioned way, for the votes to be counted, real votes, to be counted

:09:48. > :09:50.in those 32 areas and the final result announced by the Chief

:09:51. > :09:54.Counting Officer, in Edinburgh. Given the extremely high levels of

:09:55. > :09:57.voter registration, it would take a very brave person really to start

:09:58. > :10:03.making any predictions at this stage am we want the certainty, let me say

:10:04. > :10:07.this now, the certainty of seeing real votes counted and official

:10:08. > :10:11.results being declared before we say anything for certain. That is how it

:10:12. > :10:15.is going to be. Our team of BBC presenters, at the counts, 32

:10:16. > :10:22.counts, led by colleague, Andrew Marr, who is at the count in the

:10:23. > :10:25.nation's capital, Ingliston, on the outskirts of Edinburgh. Andy, your

:10:26. > :10:29.thoughts on what is ahead of us tonight's? This is where it will

:10:30. > :10:33.happen, Huw, politicians, campaigners, journalists from all

:10:34. > :10:37.around Scotland are meeting here at Ingliston for the final total count.

:10:38. > :10:41.We have the world's media here. It's an extraordinary place. I have to

:10:42. > :10:44.say to you, a historic night, not a historic building. We are all

:10:45. > :10:51.basically meeting in a large, steel box. It has all the architectural

:10:52. > :10:55.charisma of a cold store in Slough. Behind me is the count going on in

:10:56. > :10:59.Edinburgh. The second biggest count in the Scottish referendum. And the

:11:00. > :11:02.news from the ballot stations is that the turnout here is

:11:03. > :11:07.astonishingly high. Really quite remarkable. I don't quite know why

:11:08. > :11:11.all the people it there are wearing hi-vis vests it looks like a Police

:11:12. > :11:14.Federation tea dance. That will is going on behind me. That is the

:11:15. > :11:17.Edinburgh count. On the other side of the hall is the podium where, at

:11:18. > :11:21.some point in the night, we will find out the fate of Scotland and

:11:22. > :11:27.the United Kingdom when we get those totals. That will go on all night am

:11:28. > :11:31.I don't suppose we will get the real results until 5.00am-6.00am. By then

:11:32. > :11:34.I hope we have Alistair Darling, Alex Salmond, and all the

:11:35. > :11:38.politicians who count. Huw. Andy, before we let you go. At this stage,

:11:39. > :11:41.before we get a single vote announced, Sarah and Nick have

:11:42. > :11:45.already underlined for us what they think is at stake. Given your

:11:46. > :11:52.heritage, I really do want to ask you what tonight means for you and

:11:53. > :11:56.what framework you would put tonight's decision? I have to say, I

:11:57. > :12:02.think this is a campaign like no other we've seen in my lifetime.

:12:03. > :12:04.It's a kind of pieceful, popular revolution against power as usual.

:12:05. > :12:09.Against the Westminster establishment. As Nick was saying.

:12:10. > :12:18.It's been a campaign where you have had to go on to social media

:12:19. > :12:19.websites to get some sense of the extraordinary energy coursing

:12:20. > :12:26.through this country. Nothing has been seen like this in Scotland or m

:12:27. > :12:31.Britain in the 20th Century. Thank you very much. Andrew Marr leading

:12:32. > :12:35.our team at the 32 local authority area counts tonight. We will have

:12:36. > :12:42.reaction from Wales and Northern Ireland where there is great

:12:43. > :12:49.interest in tonight's outcome. The future governance of the United

:12:50. > :12:52.Kingdom at stake. There is interest too among Scottish communities

:12:53. > :12:56.around the world. We will have reaction from Westminster a an

:12:57. > :13:00.among world leaders who will ponder how tonight's result might alter the

:13:01. > :13:03.United Kingdom's standing. It's useful at this stage to remind

:13:04. > :13:08.ourselves how the voting systems work in a referendum like this and

:13:09. > :13:20.how does it difficult from other contests. Let us go to Jeremy.

:13:21. > :13:22.Well, the voting takes place across 32 areas of Scotland.

:13:23. > :13:31.Later, when we show the results, it's green for Yes, and red for No.

:13:32. > :13:38.Can we look for some clues as to which way these councils have gone?

:13:39. > :13:42.If I reorder these boxes, according to the European election result in

:13:43. > :13:47.2014. This is what it looks like. Bear in mind, different issues in

:13:48. > :13:50.that election. Also, very low turnout, 30% compared to the amazing

:13:51. > :13:53.figures of turnout we have seen today. This is what you see. The

:13:54. > :14:01.councils, coloured in the colour of the party that came first in their

:14:02. > :14:03.area. Red is SNP. Sorry, yellow SNP, red is Labour, blue Conservative.

:14:04. > :14:07.Orange, the Lib Dems in the islands there. We are looking at the SNP

:14:08. > :14:13.voting councils. We are looking for clues. That is all we are doing.

:14:14. > :14:16.Wondering whether these SNP voting councils will vote most strongly for

:14:17. > :14:21.independence. What I have done now, I have ordered the council boxes

:14:22. > :14:28.here according to the strength of SNP support. The strongest

:14:29. > :14:32.supporting SNP area, the Western Isles. These are the SNP heartlands

:14:33. > :14:37.from the European elections earlier this year. Come on down and look at

:14:38. > :14:42.the other councils. As we go down these boxes, the yellow fades,

:14:43. > :14:47.doesn't it, we get grey towards the end. Dumfries and Galloway, I see

:14:48. > :14:50.Scottish Borders there, on the border with England, not SNP

:14:51. > :14:55.strongholds at all. We might be able to say, might we not, you are more

:14:56. > :15:00.likely to see Yes votes in these areas. If we start to say No votes

:15:01. > :15:06.in Dundee City or Angus maybe the Yes Campaign is in trouble. Maybe.

:15:07. > :15:10.We are just guessing. Looking for clues here. I can show you another

:15:11. > :15:13.way of analysing the character of these voting areas. These are

:15:14. > :15:17.councils by birthplace. We are look here at the councils where the most

:15:18. > :15:24.number of people proportionately were born in Scotland and stayed.

:15:25. > :15:28.And North Lanarkshire is number one. These are the councils where people

:15:29. > :15:32.tend to be more Scottish. They were born here, stayed here. If you go

:15:33. > :15:36.all the way down, you see the purple fade. Aberdeenshire City, right at

:15:37. > :15:40.the back of the box there, lots of foreign oil workers there. Far fewer

:15:41. > :15:46.people who were born in Aberdeenshire City and are staying.

:15:47. > :15:49.We know that this is an index for voting SNP, but voting for

:15:50. > :15:52.independence. It's more likely if you were born in Scotland and stayed

:15:53. > :15:57.in Scotland that you vote for independence. Again, we might say

:15:58. > :16:02.North Lanarkshire, west decommission Barton more likely to vote Yes on

:16:03. > :16:03.that basis. If they come in No or tight for Yes we could draw lessons

:16:04. > :16:16.from that. One more for you quickly. Another interesting index here. This

:16:17. > :16:24.is councils by social grade, so the lower social grades, people on

:16:25. > :16:27.benefits, manual workers and so on. Again, Inverclyde is interesting,

:16:28. > :16:33.and north Ayrshire, all the way down here. Have a look at Glasgow, one of

:16:34. > :16:37.the biggest councils, the labour supporters, are they going to follow

:16:38. > :16:41.their leadership or this index that we have seen which would suggest

:16:42. > :16:46.lower social grades vote Yes. We'll see. We are looking for clues. It's

:16:47. > :16:51.going to be fascinating, Huw. Thank you very much.

:16:52. > :16:56.Jeremy Vine with a little more explanation. Part of the army of

:16:57. > :16:59.hard workers we have here at the BBC headquarters waiting for the results

:17:00. > :17:03.to come in. They'll be feeding the results into our system, having a

:17:04. > :17:07.look at them, combing through them, looking for any trends. We know

:17:08. > :17:12.there's a record number of voters registered, will that translate into

:17:13. > :17:19.a very high turnout? You have to go back to 1951 to get a turnout of

:17:20. > :17:26.over 81%. I'm delighted that our friends on BBC World, our global

:17:27. > :17:31.audience, has just joined us, thank you very much for joining us.

:17:32. > :17:33.Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde university is with me.

:17:34. > :17:38.Thank you very much for joining us. Nice to be here. We are going to

:17:39. > :17:43.hang on your every word tonight. At this very early stage, what are the

:17:44. > :17:48.early signals you are likely to get? The early signals is some indication

:17:49. > :17:52.of the turnout and arguably in a sense, that's one of the two most

:17:53. > :17:56.important results of the night. One of the things the politicians hope

:17:57. > :18:02.to get from this referendum is a decisive result. One of the things

:18:03. > :18:05.that will help everybody ensures and agrees it's decisive is that the

:18:06. > :18:08.vast majority of people in Scotland have voted, so there can't be a

:18:09. > :18:13.situation where not enough people have voted. Very early days but the

:18:14. > :18:18.indications we have got from the odd count is it does look as though we

:18:19. > :18:24.do have a very high turnout and maybe that 81% record figure may be

:18:25. > :18:28.surpassed. To that extent, the good news is this, this may well be a

:18:29. > :18:33.referendum that everybody accepts is decisive. The bad news is, a lot of

:18:34. > :18:39.people that have voted, the count is going to take a little longer and

:18:40. > :18:43.the earliest expectations we had was 1 o'clock, it could get later. Don't

:18:44. > :18:47.say that, John, I want people to keep on watching because we'll have

:18:48. > :18:52.a big story to tell. When the results come in, even the earliest

:18:53. > :18:57.ones, he give us some signals. Let's think about what you might expect as

:18:58. > :19:08.one of the earliest results and what that might tell us? One of the

:19:09. > :19:13.smaller counties in Scotland or councils in Scotland is Clark man

:19:14. > :19:20.nan, that would give us a pretty good indication that perhaps either

:19:21. > :19:26.no or yes has won respectively -- Clackmannanshire. It wouldn't a

:19:27. > :19:30.million miles away to find that Scotland is what we expected. One

:19:31. > :19:34.thing we need to emphasise is that because we have never had a

:19:35. > :19:40.referendum on this subject before, we can't be entirely sure which of

:19:41. > :19:43.the places were for example the Yes Side are going to do well and where

:19:44. > :19:48.are they going to do badly. Normally you can say, we have got Sunderland,

:19:49. > :19:52.it's a strong Labour place was the swing is 2 or 3% and you can draw

:19:53. > :19:57.inferences. It will be much more difficult in this referendum. We get

:19:58. > :20:00.much more circumspect. We mange that Clackmannanshire may not be that far

:20:01. > :20:05.away from how Scotland votes as a whole, but there's no way in which

:20:06. > :20:08.you can be sure of that. Final point at this stage, John, Glasgow,

:20:09. > :20:15.Edinburgh, hundreds of thousands of votes. We are going to have to wait

:20:16. > :20:19.for those, aren't we? Indeed. The bigger the council, the more

:20:20. > :20:24.important it is asth and the longer we are going to have to wait. Don't

:20:25. > :20:29.be surprised if we get a lot of results in before we get anything in

:20:30. > :20:37.the way of a clear indication because the big results are from the

:20:38. > :20:41.larger councils. Lots of big places to come.

:20:42. > :20:44.We'll be talking lots during the night. Thank you very much. John

:20:45. > :20:48.Curtice from scath collide university and John will be with his

:20:49. > :20:53.team providing us with lots of valuable tips and analysis

:20:54. > :20:59.throughout the night. Let's talk about the campaign -- Strathclyde.

:21:00. > :21:03.To see the level of engagement, across Scotland, you can't go

:21:04. > :21:06.anywhere without someone talking about the referendum campaign. It's

:21:07. > :21:10.a level of engagement that I've never seen before in 30 years of

:21:11. > :21:13.reporting and all of my journalistic colleagues are saying the same

:21:14. > :21:18.thing, Andy mar too. But of course, when you are talking about something

:21:19. > :21:22.this important, when you're talking about stakes which are as high as

:21:23. > :21:24.these, it's maybe not surprising that from time to time, tempers have

:21:25. > :21:45.been slightly frayed. We owe the Scottish people something

:21:46. > :21:51.that is fair, legal and decisive. Ladies and gentlemen, that was quite

:21:52. > :21:56.a lodge. Let's make sure it's quite a campaign. Thank you. During this

:21:57. > :22:07.campaign, one of the most important things I've ever done in politics.

:22:08. > :22:13.On Thursday, 18th September, 2014, we will vote, the Scottish people

:22:14. > :22:17.will decide Scotland's future. The first debate should be between

:22:18. > :22:22.the First Minister of Scotland who wants independence and the Prime

:22:23. > :22:25.Minister of the UK who's trying to stop Scotland get independence.

:22:26. > :22:32.Thank you very, very much and Scotland, stay with us.

:22:33. > :22:37.I could not as Chancellor recommend that we could share the pound with

:22:38. > :22:41.an independent Scotland. Scotland cannot keep the pound and the Bank

:22:42. > :22:44.of England if it chooses independence. A currency wouldn't

:22:45. > :22:48.work for Scotland if it was independent. It wouldn't work for

:22:49. > :22:52.the rest of the UK. We are in a campaign. It's in the interests of

:22:53. > :22:58.George Osborne, Ed Balls, Douglas Alexander, to talk up what they

:22:59. > :23:00.describe as the uncertainty. We are maybing the case for an arrangement

:23:01. > :23:10.that is right for the rest of the UK.

:23:11. > :23:17.Any eight-year-old can tell you the flag, capital and currency of a

:23:18. > :23:22.country. The flag is the saltire, the capital will still be Edinburgh

:23:23. > :23:31.but you can't tell us what currency we'll have. They cannot stop us

:23:32. > :23:37.using the pound. We want Scotland to bring the Yes

:23:38. > :23:50.Vote to separate from England. I'll nominate David Cameron. Whoa! This

:23:51. > :23:55.weekend, a po put the Yes Campaign slightly ahead for the first time.

:23:56. > :23:57.We are proposing that over the next few months, we agree a programme

:23:58. > :24:00.that the Scottish Parliament should have increased powers. Tomorrow, the

:24:01. > :24:05.right place to be isn't in Westminster at Prime Minister's

:24:06. > :24:10.Questions, it's Scotland. We have the entire Westminster establishment

:24:11. > :24:15.in a total and utter panic. If you are fed up with the F-ing Tories,

:24:16. > :24:21.give them a kick and make them think again. This is totally different to

:24:22. > :24:29.a general election. It's a decision, not about the next five years, but

:24:30. > :24:33.about the next century. That gave you a good sense of the

:24:34. > :24:36.campaign and the fact that there's been lots of energy and passion.

:24:37. > :24:41.That's not surprising because people have been debating the future of

:24:42. > :24:44.their nation and country. So if you can't get passionate about that,

:24:45. > :24:51.there's not much hope for you, really, is there? A full results

:24:52. > :24:54.service available online at www.bbc.co.uk/scotlanddecides.

:24:55. > :25:01.Plenty of information there on the individual counting areas. A very

:25:02. > :25:11.good site to have a look at. On social media look at the special

:25:12. > :25:16.Facebook page we've got or you have the

:25:17. > :25:21.# Indyref which will take you into the stream to give you the comments

:25:22. > :25:27.and news. Douglas Alexander is with us for Labour and Fiona Hislop for

:25:28. > :25:31.the SNP, the Scottish Cabinet Secretary for culture. Thank you for

:25:32. > :25:36.coming in. Good evening. Well, where do we start, Douglas,

:25:37. > :25:41.just to talk really about for you what is at stake here? This is much

:25:42. > :25:44.bigger than a general election, much bigger than Party Politics. I think

:25:45. > :25:48.the real question that many of us were looking at today when we saw

:25:49. > :25:53.the ballot paper was, what kind of progress do we want for our nation.

:25:54. > :25:58.It's fundamental, it's bindery and I think we can only welcome the fact

:25:59. > :26:08.that in our millions as Scots we've come out to cast our vote. I think

:26:09. > :26:11.it will be a historic judgment on an historic night. It's hard to capture

:26:12. > :26:15.words that cap huh the scale and significance to us here in Scotland,

:26:16. > :26:18.not just of the campaign we have experienced but the consequences of

:26:19. > :26:22.the decision. The choice is for us as Scots but the consequences will

:26:23. > :26:28.be felt in every part of these islands, this is huge.

:26:29. > :26:32.It's a tribute to the democratic process of Scotland? It's been

:26:33. > :26:37.hugely exciting. The people of Scotland have been on a journey and

:26:38. > :26:42.a few years ago, some people didn't even want the debate. They are

:26:43. > :26:52.energised. Turnout is considerable. I think it will be a high turnout.

:26:53. > :26:56.In terms of engagement, it's helped people change politics. If it ever

:26:57. > :27:00.was, it no longer is an issue of politics of party. It's most

:27:01. > :27:03.certainly politics of people. That's what many people find they are not

:27:04. > :27:07.from Scotland hard to engage with that this is not just about the

:27:08. > :27:11.Westminster system, this is about power and power lying in the hands

:27:12. > :27:15.of the people. For those precious hours today, the future and the

:27:16. > :27:18.power and sovereignty of Scotland lays in the hands of the Scottish

:27:19. > :27:26.people and that is an amazing achievement. To do so at a peaceful

:27:27. > :27:29.and considered and energised debate is a tribute to everybody and we

:27:30. > :27:33.should recognise that. In a second, I'm going to ask you for your sense

:27:34. > :27:38.of, the you aring the day you must have picked up some vibes, but

:27:39. > :27:44.before that, nib, we don't have an exit poll, but there are surveys

:27:45. > :27:51.around tonight? There is a last on the day poll. Difference between an

:27:52. > :27:57.exit poll and a poll done on the day. The poll is people who've

:27:58. > :28:05.voted, not on people who've not made up their mind. The result out

:28:06. > :28:10.tonight is 54% no, 46% yes, so a no lead quite a bit bigger than we had

:28:11. > :28:15.earlier and the online data suggests that in that churn that you get,

:28:16. > :28:22.there's some more movement from yeses to noes rather than noes to

:28:23. > :28:27.yeses. There wasn't many people saying I haven't a clue, it was

:28:28. > :28:31.people going from yes to no. It was a genuine agonising decision. Just

:28:32. > :28:35.to stress, the reason we are not putting too much on that poll, not

:28:36. > :28:39.only is it not an exit poll. This question's never been asked before,

:28:40. > :28:43.we have never had a turnout like this before, we have never had 16

:28:44. > :28:48.and 17-year-olds voting before. It's a very, very different thing to an

:28:49. > :28:53.election where we have lots of broadcast practice to look at. With

:28:54. > :28:59.all those qualifications, would that kind of margin be in line with what

:29:00. > :29:04.you expect, Douglas or not? You see humility with turnouts such as this.

:29:05. > :29:08.The highest turnout previously in Scotland was around 80% in 1951, so

:29:09. > :29:13.in that sense it's far beyond any of our own lifetimes and in that sense,

:29:14. > :29:17.you need to have humility at this time in the evening. My sense today

:29:18. > :29:21.was that there were huge numbers of people coming out and voting no.

:29:22. > :29:25.This is a different campaign. To try and give you a sense of this - it

:29:26. > :29:30.happened to me many Scotland yesterday - he said if I stop the

:29:31. > :29:35.metre will you explain the Barnet formula to me? ? What other election

:29:36. > :29:38.could that possibly happen. Jim Murphy tells the story of being in a

:29:39. > :29:42.restaurant with his wife, a group arrived for a hen night, in-between

:29:43. > :29:46.tequila shots they were discussing the Archbishop of Canterbury formula

:29:47. > :29:51.and the referendum. People normally go to a restaurant to get away from

:29:52. > :29:55.politics, last Saturday evening every table was talking politics.

:29:56. > :29:59.It's been extraordinary. No-one would disagree with that, it

:30:00. > :30:05.has been remarkable. But just to go back to those figures, I know it's

:30:06. > :30:10.just a survey, but would that be in any way in line with what you might

:30:11. > :30:17.expect or not? I think I would trust the judgment of the Scottish people

:30:18. > :30:20.and I would trust the poll of the people compared to anything else.

:30:21. > :30:27.From what you picked up in your own area today, what was your sense? It

:30:28. > :30:31.was interesting. There's been an underestimation of the undecideds,

:30:32. > :30:37.who're not undecideds, but just not decided yet. Most of it has been

:30:38. > :30:42.from no to yes, but a lot of people weighing up the issues, which in the

:30:43. > :30:45.last few days, they have been about last-minute panics and it's been

:30:46. > :30:51.counterproductive from the no perspective. We'll see the results,

:30:52. > :30:59.but people will be thinking, we have been taken for granted, why is it

:31:00. > :31:03.happening in the last two weeks when it should have been the last two

:31:04. > :31:07.years. The stories are fantastic, people who've never voted before, a

:31:08. > :31:11.guy 57 years old never voted before and wants to come to the polling

:31:12. > :31:15.station. I had the honour of going to the polls with my 17-year-old son

:31:16. > :31:19.today and he and his friends voted for the first time. He was making

:31:20. > :31:24.history twice, making a choice about the future of his country and being

:31:25. > :31:27.the first 17-year-old voting in the national system.

:31:28. > :31:39.I think we all have taxi driver stories. One had a partner who had

:31:40. > :31:45.never voted before. She was voting Yes. He was voting No. People have

:31:46. > :31:47.reflected on the burden and responsibility of the decision.

:31:48. > :31:51.Talking about the responsibility of making a decision. I'm delighted to

:31:52. > :31:56.say we have a group of people here with us from all parts of Scotland.

:31:57. > :31:59.Different ages, different perspectives, in terms of this

:32:00. > :32:03.debate. Can I just give you a formal welcome, all of you. Lovely to have

:32:04. > :32:09.you with us. We will chat with you as the night goes on. I'm sure if

:32:10. > :32:15.Douglas and Fiona and Nick and Sarah have things to say they will too.

:32:16. > :32:18.John, you are in the front row. You are from south-west Scotland? That

:32:19. > :32:22.is You are an correct. Entrepreneur? I think. I think you are a Yes

:32:23. > :32:27.supporter? I am indeed. We established that. Can we talk about

:32:28. > :32:30.the campaign? Sure. Maybe not in terms of specific issues. Talk about

:32:31. > :32:34.the nature of the campaign what you have made of it and how it has

:32:35. > :32:39.engaged you Yeah. Actually when the campaign began I was living in

:32:40. > :32:43.London at the time. So when I started looking at the difference

:32:44. > :32:49.between a Yes and No I was in the background of a London setting. And,

:32:50. > :32:57.at the very beginning I was very much a No supporter. Right. As I

:32:58. > :33:00.read all the different arguments, I looked at what other people were

:33:01. > :33:04.saying online. I realised that actually that a lot of the arguments

:33:05. > :33:09.the Yes Campaign were putting forward made it an awful lot of

:33:10. > :33:14.sense. Then, towards the end, you started seeing more and more kind of

:33:15. > :33:21.messups by the No campaign. What would you call a "messup"? Things

:33:22. > :33:26.like earlier in the month the problem with RBS. Where they

:33:27. > :33:30.actually made a massive mistake on the other hand how they'd kind of

:33:31. > :33:35.put forward the news about RBS. Was there a turning point for you? In

:33:36. > :33:40.your transition from No to Yes was there a point that you thought - OK?

:33:41. > :33:44.No. It was gradual. It was very much, here is another fact I didn't

:33:45. > :33:48.realise about Scotland. Oh, here is another thing, you know, isn't often

:33:49. > :33:53.talked about. OK. Then doing research-based on that. OK, John,

:33:54. > :33:57.thank you very much. Ruth, Ruth Mackay. Thank you for coming in. I

:33:58. > :33:59.think you have a different perspective to John's. You are on

:34:00. > :34:04.the other side, aren't you? Yes, I am. Your perspective on the

:34:05. > :34:07.campaign? Your sense of how it has gone and whether you think it has

:34:08. > :34:11.been a good energising experience? Yeah. I think it has been a

:34:12. > :34:17.fantastic experience. I personally have never been involved in politics

:34:18. > :34:22.or anything like that at all. And, I felt very passionately about the

:34:23. > :34:26.issue, and have become more and more involved to the point that now I

:34:27. > :34:30.have decided myself that I'd like to be politically active. The number of

:34:31. > :34:35.people that I've debated with, that I've met along the way, has been

:34:36. > :34:39.quite fascinating. Particularly for me, women who have decided they want

:34:40. > :34:42.to be more involved and politically active themselves. I think it's been

:34:43. > :34:46.a phenomenonal experience. It's been heated and it's been hard work,

:34:47. > :34:51.certainly coming as we get closer. That has certainly been the case.

:34:52. > :34:56.It's absolutely fantastic. Even my five-year-old is waiting to find out

:34:57. > :35:00.and excited about waking up to see whether the Yeses or the Nos have

:35:01. > :35:04.won. The main thing I would really hope is ha we continue with this

:35:05. > :35:09.momentum. We keep people this engaged after the vote tonight. Can

:35:10. > :35:13.I ask you. You hadn't been engaged in politics before. How did it

:35:14. > :35:24.happen? Did someone invite you to a meeting, what happened? Yes.

:35:25. > :35:28.Actually, I had a meeting with a representative, I was invited to the

:35:29. > :35:31.launch of the Better Together. I got a phone call asking me to say

:35:32. > :35:35.something there. It started this huge ball rolling. I have been very

:35:36. > :35:41.active in the campaign throughout. One of the things that had really

:35:42. > :35:43.struck me was - I never actually, personally, appreciated how

:35:44. > :35:48.disengaged a lot of people were about politics. Maybe uncomfortable

:35:49. > :35:52.about talking about it normally even with their family and friends. That

:35:53. > :35:57.struck me. I suddenly thought, this is really important that we have

:35:58. > :36:02.more people. More young people, more women actively involved in politics.

:36:03. > :36:08.Yes, that stayed with me. I plan to do that. Thank you very much. A

:36:09. > :36:14.point very well made. To the front row now. You are a Labour voter? I

:36:15. > :36:18.am, indeed. Can I ask you which way you voted in this referendum? I

:36:19. > :36:24.voted Yes. You can't see my badge. There it is. It is quite clear. Why

:36:25. > :36:29.did you, infect, abandon the party's own stance then? The independence

:36:30. > :36:31.debate is bigger than party politics. It's not about SNP, Alex

:36:32. > :36:37.Salmond or Nicola Sturgeon it's about what is best for us and our

:36:38. > :36:41.future generations. I started reading the devolution papers. I

:36:42. > :36:47.didn't see much radical change for the people of Scotland we have so

:36:48. > :36:51.many large resources. I just felt as if the devolution papers weren't

:36:52. > :36:55.going far enough. Started reading into independence and was totally

:36:56. > :36:59.swayed by the arguments and the positively of the Yes Campaign is

:37:00. > :37:03.amazing. Hold that thought. Douglas, possibly the fear for you has been,

:37:04. > :37:06.there are lots of people like that who are natural Labour supporters

:37:07. > :37:10.swayed by arguments of the Yes Campaign? To an extent. We are

:37:11. > :37:15.finding a significant number of SNP voters who think we support them in

:37:16. > :37:18.Holyrood when they vote for Fiona and their colleagues, but are voting

:37:19. > :37:21.No in the referendum. In that sense, I think all of us recognise there

:37:22. > :37:25.has been churn within political parties and beyond political parties

:37:26. > :37:28.in this campaign. To come to the central point, in terms of the

:37:29. > :37:31.involvement in politics, one of the great things about this referendum

:37:32. > :37:36.it has liberated politics in Scotland from two myths. One is,

:37:37. > :37:39.voting doesn't make any difference. Every single person in Scotland

:37:40. > :37:42.knows this decision, one way or another, will make a big

:37:43. > :37:45.differences. Secondly, all politicians are the same. It has

:37:46. > :37:48.been transparent, during this campaign, there are very different

:37:49. > :37:53.political points of views being argued on both sides. I think that's

:37:54. > :37:58.a great lesson for ourselves and a great example for the United Kingdom

:37:59. > :38:02.as well. OK. Amy in the front row as well. You are one of the 17-year-old

:38:03. > :38:08.vote voters, is that right? That is correct. How did you vote? I voted

:38:09. > :38:14.No this morning. Was that a decision you came to today or had you decided

:38:15. > :38:17.a while ago? I think I have been a No supporter for the past year since

:38:18. > :38:22.the campaign started. It's not something I have been set on. I have

:38:23. > :38:28.naturally come to the decision as I've become more informed over the

:38:29. > :38:32.course of the year. What was, for you, the strongest argument in the

:38:33. > :38:36.No campaign? To sum it up in a word it would be "uncertainty" now I'm

:38:37. > :38:40.unclear with what is happening with currency. We keep being told for

:38:41. > :38:44.universities that will be fantastic. Where are the jobs coming from

:38:45. > :38:48.after? We are not told enough information. Lots of you will be

:38:49. > :38:50.waiting to come in. I promise you I, I will be back with you before too

:38:51. > :38:57.long. Thank you very much. Good contributions. Fiona, I sense that

:38:58. > :39:01.when the change went through, 16, 17-year-olds getting the vote there

:39:02. > :39:05.was a real sense in some squat quarters that was because you

:39:06. > :39:13.expected most young people to vote Yes. Is that right? That's rubbish.

:39:14. > :39:16.Angus Robertson when he was elected to Westminster in his speech spoke

:39:17. > :39:24.about it. We will put that to one side. I think anybody who watched

:39:25. > :39:29.the debate the BBC had with the 8,000 young people, or 6,000, thee

:39:30. > :39:32.were well-informed, intelligent young people more about them. A

:39:33. > :39:35.17-year-old said to me - this decision, we will have to live

:39:36. > :39:39.longer with this decision than the rest of you. I think that is quite a

:39:40. > :39:44.wise perspective. It is about the future. I think that's where the

:39:45. > :39:48.hope and optimism I think has been very reflective in the Yes Campaign

:39:49. > :39:51.and I think the idea of So youing fear and uncertainty has been part

:39:52. > :39:55.of the problem with the No campaign. You know, at the end of the day, how

:39:56. > :39:59.you do your politics is as important as what you do with your politics.

:40:00. > :40:04.That is what we have shown with the whole campaign how you do your

:40:05. > :40:07.politics can be different The point that women have become more

:40:08. > :40:10.involved, organisations like independence for women are engaging

:40:11. > :40:14.with people on all sides. One of the legacies I expect to see is more

:40:15. > :40:18.women, more young people and less, with greatest respect to Douglas,

:40:19. > :40:25.middle age men dominating - Don't look at me. That was wounding! One

:40:26. > :40:29.of those changes will be hard to reverse. There is now a generation

:40:30. > :40:36.of 16 and 17-year-olds who had the vote. Tell them they won't get a

:40:37. > :40:40.vote when they choose a minister in Westminster or your SNP? Holyrood.

:40:41. > :40:44.Imagine their friends and relatives, the people they mix with in

:40:45. > :40:49.University they say - have you got a vote? I haven't got a vote? This

:40:50. > :40:52.referendum has changed a series of things regardless of how politics is

:40:53. > :40:58.done. Let us hold that thought. I'm keen to know what is going on in

:40:59. > :41:03.some of the counts. If we think about Inverclyde, west of Glasgow,

:41:04. > :41:09.industrial heritage. Sally is there for us. Can you give us a sense of

:41:10. > :41:13.how things are going? Yes. I can tell you there has been a high

:41:14. > :41:17.turnout. As you say, this is traditional Labour territory. It's

:41:18. > :41:23.built on shipbuilding, as you just said, and sugar refining. There has

:41:24. > :41:27.been those jobs have largely gone. Jeremy was talking about the

:41:28. > :41:29.importance of areas of deprivation and high unemployment and the

:41:30. > :41:35.significant of those. Certainly, this is just such an area. The jobs

:41:36. > :41:39.have largely gone. There is very high deprivation here. There has

:41:40. > :41:43.been a high turnout. We are told, unconfirmed, in one district there

:41:44. > :41:48.was a 95% turnout. Obviously, that's going to be confirmed much later on

:41:49. > :41:52.in the night. The SNP have been campaigning very hard, not just

:41:53. > :41:58.recently, but for the past 18 months. A series of very well

:41:59. > :42:02.attended community hall meetings. Labour MP, Ian Mackenzie, had his

:42:03. > :42:08.job cut out for him much he has been pounding the streets too. But the

:42:09. > :42:11.SNP campaign was boosted about three weeks ago when one local councillor

:42:12. > :42:15.from Labour started actively campaigning for Yes. She has since

:42:16. > :42:21.resigned from Labour. They have taken that as a big boost and they

:42:22. > :42:26.say they are confident that large numbers of traditional Labour voters

:42:27. > :42:38.will be voting Yes here. Sally, thank you very much. Much. We will

:42:39. > :42:43.be back with you later. If we go to Murray. They have been sending SNP's

:42:44. > :42:50.to Westminster for a long time. Since the days of Maggiual wing. --

:42:51. > :42:56.Maggie Ewing. How is the count progressing? It's really exciting.

:42:57. > :43:02.This is a coastal community, a fishing town. Fishing is massive

:43:03. > :43:08.here, as is agriculture and of course whisky. This should be Yes

:43:09. > :43:12.territory. There a solid swaj of SNP vote here. You would be absolutely

:43:13. > :43:16.wrong. This is a community divided. Many people just cannot make up

:43:17. > :43:21.their mind. There is a big Army camp here. A big RAF base, that might

:43:22. > :43:30.have an impact. The historical aspect. Scotland's first ever member

:43:31. > :43:34.of Parliament is incredibly important. There is a turnout. The

:43:35. > :43:41.turnout has been incredible. # 2% of the postal vote. 80%, 86% possibly

:43:42. > :43:48.of the ballot has been registered. And, interestingly, just along the

:43:49. > :43:51.coast here Macbeth allegedly met the three witches there which made

:43:52. > :43:57.predictions for Scotland's future. It would be a brave witch to predict

:43:58. > :44:01.the future tonight. Indeed thank you very much for giving us a sense

:44:02. > :44:07.going on in Moray. That will be an interesting signals for us. Just a

:44:08. > :44:11.thought really, Fiona there on areas like Moray. You have a strong

:44:12. > :44:15.heritage. Is there a suggestion in areas like the north-east that, you

:44:16. > :44:19.know, there will be a percentage of your supporters there who will not

:44:20. > :44:22.be backing you? I'm saying that because, for viewers in other parts

:44:23. > :44:27.of the UK, they will assume that every SNP voter are is voting for

:44:28. > :44:30.independence? I think it's wrong, I said this before, to think about it

:44:31. > :44:40.as politics of party. It stopped being that some time ago. I

:44:41. > :44:45.represent, you know, West Lothian, in terms of a former mining area a

:44:46. > :44:47.tight SNP/Labour, SNP Scottish Parliament and Labour at

:44:48. > :44:51.Westminster. We have a large number of Labour voters who are voting Yes.

:44:52. > :44:56.Does that mean that some SNP voters may vote No. That may happen. I know

:44:57. > :45:00.in terms of the compensation by far greater number of Labour voters. If

:45:01. > :45:05.you look at the numbers that will vote Yes, on whatever polls you want

:45:06. > :45:10.to take, it will be far in excess of the landslide result we got as a SNP

:45:11. > :45:14.in 2011. It's not about the SNP and the people of Scotland am they will

:45:15. > :45:20.vote differently in different ways. It's wrong, you had the assessment

:45:21. > :45:26.about the European elections at the start, that was an erroneous way of

:45:27. > :45:31.assessing how this election will go. I think for audiences that have not

:45:32. > :45:36.been as involved in this debate it's hard to engage with. Do you buy the

:45:37. > :45:40.thinking? The basic point that people are moving around is the

:45:41. > :45:43.case. One thing that Alex Salmond understood early on in this campaign

:45:44. > :45:47.is how fundamentally different a referendum is. In a parliamentary

:45:48. > :45:50.democracy there is a self-limiting effect on politicians if you promise

:45:51. > :45:54.the earth, then don't deliver the earth, they kick you out the next

:45:55. > :46:00.time. This is a one-shot deal. I think Alex Salmond, to his credit,,

:46:01. > :46:03.as a politician aspiring to take Scotland to independence, but I

:46:04. > :46:08.would argue it shaped the character of the campaign, thought - I need to

:46:09. > :46:11.be lucky once. I just need to promise anything, threaten anything,

:46:12. > :46:15.offer anything, if I get the votes on September 18th, the deal is done.

:46:16. > :46:19.In that sense, that shaped both the scale of the promises made by the

:46:20. > :46:23.Yes Campaign and, in some ways, it affected the way the No campaign had

:46:24. > :46:27.to respond by saying - hold on a minute, let's ask questions. That

:46:28. > :46:30.was characterised as negative. To understand the dynamic of that

:46:31. > :46:33.campaign, you have to give Alex Salmond veried credit for saying - I

:46:34. > :46:38.need to convince enough voters on one day, then everything changes. I

:46:39. > :46:43.think that's a very unfairway of characterising it. I think the

:46:44. > :46:47.differences in the campaigns is the Yes campaign has been more of a move

:46:48. > :46:54.am and grassroots and certainly on the ground. Better Together, uneasy

:46:55. > :46:57.alliances. We saw that, many of Labour's colleagues, Douglas

:46:58. > :47:00.Alexander did not want to be seen on the same platform as Conservatives.

:47:01. > :47:04.You brought together a strange alliance of Conservative and Labour

:47:05. > :47:08.that you wouldn't normally see in Scotland in terms of alliance it was

:47:09. > :47:08.constrained talk down approach. That characterises the differences

:47:09. > :47:24.between the two campaigns. we talk about the way this has

:47:25. > :47:27.chained politics forever possibly in Scotland, people involved with the

:47:28. > :47:31.grass roots level, not necessarily following party leaders. If we are

:47:32. > :47:35.looking at this huge turnout that's been reported across the country way

:47:36. > :47:38.in excess of the 809-85% we have been talking about, that's people

:47:39. > :47:41.that have never been involved in politics but will remain so, they

:47:42. > :47:45.are going to ask different questions of party leaders when it comes to

:47:46. > :47:49.future elections, they are going to operate in different ways in their

:47:50. > :47:53.own grass roots organisations, hold politicians to account, possibly in

:47:54. > :47:57.a way they haven't before. A lot of people who've been energised and

:47:58. > :48:00.have gone out to vote will be disappointed whichever way it goes,

:48:01. > :48:07.a lot of them who've got involved in politics for the first time will not

:48:08. > :48:10.get what they wanted. What they do will be very interesting. There was

:48:11. > :48:14.a breaking of this link, if you like, between nationalism, as it was

:48:15. > :48:18.called, and the vote Yes for independence. There were a lot of

:48:19. > :48:21.true dissal nationalists who'd describe themselves as such who

:48:22. > :48:26.voted today, yes, but a lot of people who've never dreamt of

:48:27. > :48:31.calling themselves nationalists. You travel around Scotland and people

:48:32. > :48:36.say, stop calling it the nationalists or the Alex Salmond

:48:37. > :48:40.campaign. The UK-based parties were stuck slightly in a campaign that

:48:41. > :48:45.wanted to tackle Alex Salmond's nationalists, the SNP, and they saw

:48:46. > :48:49.themselves in some ways as in a traditional election campaign and

:48:50. > :48:56.this's why some of the messages didn't sink in, if you like, and he

:48:57. > :48:59.was, Douglas Alexander, has acknowledged, he was not fighting it

:49:00. > :49:02.like an election, but quite differently. Let's pause for a

:49:03. > :49:06.second. We'll be back with our guests in a moment and we'll be

:49:07. > :49:10.keeping tabs, of course, on the counts and having a look at some of

:49:11. > :49:14.the key counting centres too. But we are going to go away for a few

:49:15. > :49:19.minutes and have a summary of the news.

:49:20. > :49:22.Hello here is a summary of the main news.

:49:23. > :49:27.The polls have closed and counting is under way in the Scottish

:49:28. > :49:31.independence referendum. The final result is expected shortly after 6

:49:32. > :49:36.o'clock. No exit polls were conducted during the historic

:49:37. > :49:39.ballot, but a YouGov survey's predicted the No Camp is on 54%

:49:40. > :49:54.compared to 46 for the Yes Campaign. It might not be quite the colour you

:49:55. > :49:58.are used to, or in the right country, but this Scottish Statue of

:49:59. > :50:02.Liberty is giving the gist of the campaign for independence and Yes,

:50:03. > :50:06.they have been rather fired up. It's a once in a lifetime

:50:07. > :50:12.opportunity to take Scotland's future into Scotland's hands.

:50:13. > :50:18.Tonight, the nocturnal arithmetic is Tway. Here the ballot boxes arrive

:50:19. > :50:23.in Glasgow. Meanwhile, down the road in Falkirk, and in Dunbarton, the

:50:24. > :50:27.adding up as begun. Who says people couldn't care less about politics?

:50:28. > :50:32.People have queued to vote. Turnout is expected to be huge. Those hoping

:50:33. > :50:38.Scotland will remain part of the UK, the No Campaign hope they have done

:50:39. > :50:42.enough to. It's hard to find words that capture the and significance to

:50:43. > :50:45.those of us here in Scotland, not just of the campaign that we have

:50:46. > :50:49.experienced but the consequences of the decision, the choice is for us

:50:50. > :50:56.as Scots, but the consequences will be felt in every part of these

:50:57. > :51:01.islands. An opinion poll done by YouGov today suggests Scotland won't

:51:02. > :51:09.go its own way. YouGov's prediction is that No has won by 54% with Yes

:51:10. > :51:12.getting 46%. We polled 800 people today online after they voted,

:51:13. > :51:16.people we spoke to earlier this week, so you can look at what

:51:17. > :51:22.happened to real people, and there's been a clear shift today, small but

:51:23. > :51:26.clear, from yes p Yes to No and we think the No Voters in the end were

:51:27. > :51:34.slightly more determined to turn out than the Yes Voters. But so far, we

:51:35. > :51:38.have no actual result. Whilst the counters count, the pundits will

:51:39. > :51:42.speculate. The night is young. The new video has been released

:51:43. > :51:49.showing a British man believed to be held hostage by Islamic state

:51:50. > :51:56.militants. In the video, the man identifies himself as John Cantley,

:51:57. > :52:02.captured while working as a newspaper journalist. In the footage

:52:03. > :52:06.he's sat behind a desk dressed in orange clothes delivering a scripted

:52:07. > :52:11.speech. Detectives in London investigating the disappearance of

:52:12. > :52:16.Alice Gross have named a Latvian builder as the main prime suspect.

:52:17. > :52:20.He served time in Latvia for murdering his wife. He was last seen

:52:21. > :52:25.a week after 14-year-old Alice went missing in late August. The

:52:26. > :52:28.schoolgirl was last seen on the towpath that Arnis Zalkalns used to

:52:29. > :52:32.get to work. The UN Security Council's declared

:52:33. > :52:37.the ebola outbreak in west Africa a threat to world peace and security.

:52:38. > :52:43.In a unanimous resolution, the council called on the international

:52:44. > :52:48.community to provide urgent assistance to the Nkunda tris

:52:49. > :52:51.affected. The number of ebola infections was

:52:52. > :52:55.at one stage doubling every three weeks. Police in Thailand haven't

:52:56. > :53:02.identified any suspects many the hunt for the killer or killers of

:53:03. > :53:06.two British tourists. The bodies of Hannah Witheridge and David Miller

:53:07. > :53:12.were found on the island of Koh Tao on Monday. Thailand's Prime Minister

:53:13. > :53:19.apologised, suggesting it's unsafe for female tourists to wear bikinis.

:53:20. > :53:29.That is it for now. Back to Scotland Decides.

:53:30. > :53:35.Welcome back to Scotland Decides. In a moment, we'll be visiting a couple

:53:36. > :53:38.more of the counting centres, talking to my colleagues, Flake and

:53:39. > :53:42.Sarah again and two new special guests with me in the studio and

:53:43. > :53:46.I'll introduce them in a moment. But before that, let's have the

:53:47. > :53:50.perspective from Westminster and join my colleague Andrew Neill.

:53:51. > :53:54.Thank you. Scotland has saturated airwaves for weeks now so let's talk

:53:55. > :53:59.about the rest of the UK, particularly England with two

:54:00. > :54:04.English MPs, John wedwood and Diane Abbott. The Prime Minister's said if

:54:05. > :54:08.it's a No Vote, he's going to offer substantial home rule which is what

:54:09. > :54:11.Gordon Brown calls it, to Scotland. Can he do that without major

:54:12. > :54:16.constitutional change in England? Of course he can't. He's got to reform

:54:17. > :54:20.the whole of the United Kingdom. It means going over to a federal model.

:54:21. > :54:23.I say what is good enough for Scotland then should be good enough

:54:24. > :54:27.for England so every power that's given to the Scottish Parliament

:54:28. > :54:31.should be mirrored with the same power coming to the English

:54:32. > :54:34.Parliament. Being an economical Conservative I would say that we can

:54:35. > :54:40.carry on doing both jobs as we do at the moment. We English MPs should

:54:41. > :54:44.meet in Westminster on separate occasions from the union Parliament

:54:45. > :54:48.meeting as the English Parliament, just the English MPs and we should

:54:49. > :54:50.handle all the devolved matters in exactly the same way as the

:54:51. > :54:55.Edinburgh Parliament does for Scotland. Is that a growing view on

:54:56. > :55:00.Conservative backbenchers? Incredibly popular, a lot of my

:55:01. > :55:04.colleagues are behind it. It builds on the Conservative manifesto pledge

:55:05. > :55:07.for English votes for English issues in the Westminster Parliament made

:55:08. > :55:10.in 2010, now matched by Mr Clegg, who said the Liberal Democrats now,

:55:11. > :55:15.who weren't in favour of that, are in favour now, so it seems to me

:55:16. > :55:20.that the majority view, it would be quite unacceptable if Scotland was

:55:21. > :55:22.setting income tax rate in the Scottish Parliament and then sent

:55:23. > :55:27.members to the Westminster Parliament to set a rate for us

:55:28. > :55:35.which Scotland wasn't going to give. Constitutional change. If there is a

:55:36. > :55:40.No Vote, what constitutional change do you think there should be in

:55:41. > :55:47.England? First of all, no-one's seen Mr Cameron's proposals. They are

:55:48. > :55:51.also Gordon Brown's? I know. I don't ethen think David Cameron knows the

:55:52. > :55:57.details so it's hard to comment on what the proposals are. I think that

:55:58. > :56:01.Labour MPs will be relieved that it looks like we are going to squeak

:56:02. > :56:05.through and know we'll win. What is the consequences for England? The

:56:06. > :56:10.consequences for Labour MPs is we'll not be inclined to rock the boat on

:56:11. > :56:16.this. John Denham, mainstream Labour MP, one of your colleagues, he said

:56:17. > :56:19.tonight, it's clear that the more powers that two to the scar, the

:56:20. > :56:25.less you can have Scottish MPs voting on things in Westminster.

:56:26. > :56:35.That's got to change. That is the Midlothian question. Do you agree

:56:36. > :56:43.with Mr Denham or not? I think it's inevitable. It's inevitable that

:56:44. > :56:47.Scottish MPs shouldn't vote on Scottish matters only? The answer

:56:48. > :56:51.is, you won't be able to. England won't accept it and a lot of

:56:52. > :56:54.Scottish MPs won't want to. The SNP have been sensible over it, of

:56:55. > :56:57.course they don't want to boss England around, they want to run

:56:58. > :57:00.Scotland, not England. We are being told if it's a No Vote, the Prime

:57:01. > :57:04.Minister tomorrow morning is going to make a major statement, not just

:57:05. > :57:09.about Scotland and more devolution there, but about England. What has

:57:10. > :57:14.he got to say to keep his backbenchers on side? He's got to

:57:15. > :57:17.say he'll be as fair to England as to Scotland. I'm happy to stand

:57:18. > :57:21.behind the Prime Minister and honour his pledge to Scotland. Of course,

:57:22. > :57:25.we must keep face with the Scottish people. They now deserve more powers

:57:26. > :57:33.because they have been offered in a referendum. Every power that goes to

:57:34. > :57:36.Scotland must be matched with the English power at English level. We

:57:37. > :57:40.need an English Parliament to match the Scottish Parliament. If there's

:57:41. > :57:44.going to be major constitutional change south of the border and in

:57:45. > :57:48.Northern Ireland and Wales as well as more home rule for Scotland,

:57:49. > :57:53.that's going to delay the whole thing isn't it? You can't do that

:57:54. > :58:02.between now and May next year? It's hard to see how that could happen.

:58:03. > :58:05.It will be a long, drawn out debate. Leaders like Manchester and

:58:06. > :58:12.Newcastle, the Labour leaders there may take a line of their own.

:58:13. > :58:15.Thank you both for joining us. Can I just say... I'm afraid we have to go

:58:16. > :58:31.back to Scotland Decides. Thank you. We'll be back with Andrew and his

:58:32. > :58:36.guests at Westminster a little later on. Let's have a look at some of the

:58:37. > :58:40.scenes around Scotland tonight because the counting is well under

:58:41. > :58:44.way. Ballot boxes have been arriving. That presents some

:58:45. > :58:48.logistical challenges in some of the more rural constituencies. The boxes

:58:49. > :58:52.have been arriving and, I have to say, having been briefed several

:58:53. > :58:58.times by the electoral authorities who've been run by a woman called

:58:59. > :59:02.Mary who is in charge of this counting, a very impressive

:59:03. > :59:05.operation, and they seem to have covered all eventualities, so

:59:06. > :59:09.barring any recounts which of course could change the timetable

:59:10. > :59:14.significantly, as John Curtice told us earlier, barring any recounts, it

:59:15. > :59:19.looks to be a very efficient process indeed so far. What you get in lots

:59:20. > :59:22.of these counting areas, 32 of them based on the local authority areas,

:59:23. > :59:26.you will get some initial indications first of all of turnout.

:59:27. > :59:30.We have already had one or two figures but nothing official yet.

:59:31. > :59:34.After that, we'll be in a position to think about the total numbers of

:59:35. > :59:38.votes involved and then we'll be able to look forward to some of the

:59:39. > :59:42.earlier declarations. We think that, for example, some of the smaller

:59:43. > :59:47.local authority areas like Clackmannanshire may well be able to

:59:48. > :59:50.get through their numbers in a more quick and efficient time because of

:59:51. > :59:54.the small numbers. That is a sense of the activity going on right now.

:59:55. > :59:59.Those are the people working very hard to get the results in for you.

:00:00. > :00:07.Ruth Davidson is with me now, the leader of the Scottish Conservatives

:00:08. > :00:09.and Mr Yusef, the Scottish Minister for Internal affairs and Scottish

:00:10. > :00:13.National development. Quite a night for you to be joining us, thank you

:00:14. > :00:18.for coming in. Any intelligence from your area? Yes. I've been having

:00:19. > :00:22.lots of Tweets and texts and all sorts coming in from people around

:00:23. > :00:26.the country. People are doing tallies at ballot box counts around

:00:27. > :00:31.there. The most we have had so far is Scottish Borders seems to be

:00:32. > :00:37.rattling through all the ballots. We are looking at perhaps over 70% from

:00:38. > :00:41.Lothian. We'd expect that to be high and good for us, but if that was

:00:42. > :00:46.significantly below that, I would start to be worried and the smile

:00:47. > :00:51.wouldn't be on my face much longer. I'm pleased the Scottish Borders is

:00:52. > :00:56.coming out for no. I'll pick up on what John was saying earlier which

:00:57. > :01:02.was interesting, a contrast with you as a Conservative. But Fiona earlier

:01:03. > :01:06.was stressing that in her view this wasn't really a party issue, this

:01:07. > :01:11.had gone much bigger than a party issue, that there was a cross party

:01:12. > :01:15.consensus on both sides in alliance actually. Do you agree with that

:01:16. > :01:24.initially and do you have any intelligence for us?

:01:25. > :01:32.The intelligence is we have no intelligence. No, some intelligence

:01:33. > :01:37.that is coming through is that the West Coast, Glasgow and Greater

:01:38. > :01:40.Glasgow, North Lanarkshire, South Lanarkshire, enremember collide,

:01:41. > :01:45.those areas which have been a real tough battle. Important ground for

:01:46. > :01:49.the Yes campaign, we are seeing that turnout was exceptionally high, as

:01:50. > :01:52.across the country. The leader of the Inverclyde Council saying it

:01:53. > :01:55.will be a real close call. We will have to stay up to the early hours

:01:56. > :02:01.of the night to watch that. That is where we are now. I agree with

:02:02. > :02:05.Fiona. A cross-party and non-party, I think the non-party point is

:02:06. > :02:08.important to stress. People with no interest in politics, and may have

:02:09. > :02:13.no interest afterwards, I hope they do, will have no interest of party

:02:14. > :02:17.politics getting involved. How refreshing and the success story of

:02:18. > :02:21.the referendum campaign has been the 16 and 17-year-old. In the debates I

:02:22. > :02:26.have had they have been the stars of the show. They have contributed once

:02:27. > :02:30.or twice much we will be back in a short while with our guests here.

:02:31. > :02:34.Let's go back to Glasgow. Hundreds of thousands of votes up for grabs.

:02:35. > :02:42.What is your sense of timings there? That is a very, very big logistical

:02:43. > :02:46.exercise? Indeed, it is. You know, when you understand that just short

:02:47. > :02:50.of half a million people registered to vote here in the city of Glasgow,

:02:51. > :02:54.you will get some idea of the extent of the operation going on just below

:02:55. > :02:59.me here. We haven't even got to the start of the count here yet. That is

:03:00. > :03:02.just the papers being verified much we hope to get the counting actually

:03:03. > :03:08.started fairly soon. What we are hearing is that there has been very,

:03:09. > :03:11.very high turnouts. Now, that is particularly significant here in

:03:12. > :03:15.Glasgow because Glasgow sometimes, to be honest, has pitiful turnouts

:03:16. > :03:19.when it comes to elections. At the last Scottish Parliamentary

:03:20. > :03:26.election, the turnouts at some of Glasgow seats were as low as 34%,

:03:27. > :03:31.36%. Most of Glasgow seats didn't even make it into 40% or over. I'm

:03:32. > :03:35.hearing tonight, from people who are here, is that at some individual

:03:36. > :03:39.polling stations in Glasgow, not official figures, just anecdotal

:03:40. > :03:46.figures, by 8. 30pm tonight you are looking at turnouts of 64%, 70%. 75%

:03:47. > :03:51.I was even told one polling station, which I by 8. 30pm had made it over

:03:52. > :03:56.the 80% mark. That would be remarkable in some areas of Glasgow.

:03:57. > :03:59.It goes to show that people did decide that did want to vote in this

:04:00. > :04:03.referendum. It was important to them to come out and vote, even people

:04:04. > :04:06.who do not have a history of voting decided they were going to come out

:04:07. > :04:14.and vote on the referendum. Of course, what we don't know is who

:04:15. > :04:19.that benefit is for. Which side will benefit most from that. We are a

:04:20. > :04:23.fair bit away yet from knowing. OK. A thought before I let you go. If

:04:24. > :04:28.things go according to plan, forgive me if you hinted on this earlier. If

:04:29. > :04:34.things go according to plan, what kind of time would Glasgow be ready,

:04:35. > :04:37.do you think Nobody has any clue, is the honest answer, because they have

:04:38. > :04:41.never had a turnout like this before. They have never had this

:04:42. > :04:45.amount of people registered. They have never had this amount of

:04:46. > :04:51.enthusiasm. It is of course a simpler sort when it comes to it,

:04:52. > :04:56.it's only yes or no. It might speed things up. It will be into the small

:04:57. > :05:00.hours. I can't get anyone on the counting team willing to make a

:05:01. > :05:05.prediction. If I was a betting woman I would say probably not before

:05:06. > :05:09.4.00am. That is useful. We will be back later because the Glasgow

:05:10. > :05:14.result could be absolutely pivotal in this referendum. Talking there

:05:15. > :05:19.about impressive toldout. I'm told the postal turnout in Falkirk, we

:05:20. > :05:25.mentioned it earlier, is around 96%. That is not the overall turnout,

:05:26. > :05:29.that is the postal vote turnout in Falkirk, 96%. Another sense of how

:05:30. > :05:32.this is going. I said earlier people around the world are keeping an eye

:05:33. > :05:35.on what is going on in Scotland, not just Scots around the world, who are

:05:36. > :05:40.clearly have a vested interest. A big stake in this. World leaders

:05:41. > :05:44.too. It affects the governance of the United Kingdom and the standing

:05:45. > :05:50.of the United Kingdom for some people. Jon Sopel, our North America

:05:51. > :05:53.editor is in Washington. You have thoughts there on how interested The

:05:54. > :05:59.White House is in what is going on here? Yes. I think The White House

:06:00. > :06:06.hugely interested in what is going on here in Washington. Barack Obama

:06:07. > :06:09.choose to issue a tweet last night. Intervention to call for Britain to

:06:10. > :06:12.stay united. That was the second intervention in this debate. You

:06:13. > :06:16.know, he is an experienced politician. If he didn't want to get

:06:17. > :06:19.involved in the independence debate he could have steered clear of it.

:06:20. > :06:22.Instead of which, he said, "we obviously have a deep interest in

:06:23. > :06:29.making sure that one of the closest allies that we will ever have

:06:30. > :06:34.remains strong, robust, united and an effective partner. It's up for

:06:35. > :06:39.Scottish people to decide their own destiny." It was clear what Barack

:06:40. > :06:44.Obama thinks. I have to say, Huw, across the political elite, whether

:06:45. > :06:47.you consider that to be bankers, economists, everyone seems to be

:06:48. > :06:53.speaking with one voice. They seem to be saying that Britain would be

:06:54. > :06:57.better united and are fearful of the consequences if it went the other

:06:58. > :07:00.way. Jon, thank you very much. Jon Sopel in Washington. Very, very big

:07:01. > :07:04.interest within the European Union. That is not surprising, is it

:07:05. > :07:09.really, given the United Kingdom's membership and all the talk of

:07:10. > :07:14.whether Scotland could assume some kind of automatic path into EU

:07:15. > :07:17.membership. Gavin Hewitt, our Europe editor, joins us now. Gavin, your

:07:18. > :07:21.thoughts on the level of interest in the European Union and the way this

:07:22. > :07:30.debate has con ducked itself in the past few days? Well, Huw, there is

:07:31. > :07:36.huge interest in Europe -- conducted. Tonight, we had

:07:37. > :07:42.nationalists on the streets here in Brussels putting candles down on the

:07:43. > :07:46.Scottish flag. But, of course, here in official Europe, here in

:07:47. > :07:52.Brussels, there is far less enthusiasm about the idea of nation

:07:53. > :07:56.states breaking up. Tonight the President of France came out and

:07:57. > :08:00.actually warning against the unravelling of member states. He

:08:01. > :08:10.said that Europe had been put together over 50 years, and now

:08:11. > :08:14.there was a risk of it being deconstructed. He made the point

:08:15. > :08:17.this was important not just for Great Britain, but important for

:08:18. > :08:22.Europe. We had something similar from the Spanish Prime Minister who

:08:23. > :08:25.said, these independence movements were like a torpedo going

:08:26. > :08:30.underwater, aimed at the very spirit of Europe. He said Europe was about

:08:31. > :08:36.interrogation, not about fragmentation. The reason he said

:08:37. > :08:42.that is that his concern is an independence movement in his area

:08:43. > :08:46.might become emboldened if there was a Yes vote in Scotland. That is why

:08:47. > :08:54.there has been such attention in Scotland, there is a concern if

:08:55. > :08:58.Scotland voted Yes there are other areas that might also begin to

:08:59. > :09:04.choose to go down the path to have an independence poll. Gavin, thank

:09:05. > :09:07.you very much. Very useful to have those views there on the views of

:09:08. > :09:12.European leaders and how they actually are paying attention to

:09:13. > :09:15.this contest. It's coming up, just nearly midnight really. Let us look

:09:16. > :09:19.at the front pages. They are useful for us at this stage. To give us a

:09:20. > :09:25.sense of what some of the papers are predicting. That is interesting. The

:09:26. > :09:29.Times, isn't it? The No camp predicting victory. Let us stay on

:09:30. > :09:36.that image. Ruth, are you predicting victory? We haven't. The head of

:09:37. > :09:40.YouGov has. I'm quietly confident that the quiet majority of Scots

:09:41. > :09:59.have spoken. Nobody knows anything for sure right now. My The way that

:10:00. > :10:02.they have tried to weight things, they have tried to weight it to

:10:03. > :10:06.party politics. It doesn't work. Not in this referendum. Back to the

:10:07. > :10:09.front pages. I will bring in Nick and Sarah in a moment. Let us look

:10:10. > :10:18.at the other front pages that we have there. There is the Herald.

:10:19. > :10:30."Scotland makes history" you can take that anyway you like. That is

:10:31. > :10:35.The Herald. Let's look at The Scotsman, "the nation speaks" we

:10:36. > :10:45.have to wait until 5.00am-6.00am to see what the nature of the speaking

:10:46. > :10:56.is. Now The Sun. OK... . "four million Scots vote in Indy poll, has

:10:57. > :11:04.this bloke got inside info?" . Nick, don't know what to say. There has

:11:05. > :11:07.been a variety? What is interesting is that Times headline saying the No

:11:08. > :11:13.camp are predicting victory. They are. They have been doing it for the

:11:14. > :11:16.past 48-hours. The conversations I had with people inside the No

:11:17. > :11:19.campaign was a sense that things were moving their way. They did

:11:20. > :11:23.think there was a margin of victory there and that they believed today.

:11:24. > :11:26.The one thing they were terrified of was that when this huge turnout came

:11:27. > :11:30.it would be people who had never voted before and choosing to vote

:11:31. > :11:35.for the first time and for Yes. Now, as of this morning, the No

:11:36. > :11:39.campaign's view that wasn't happening. Yes, the big turnout.

:11:40. > :11:42.There wasn't a sense that people suddenly rushed out in large numbers

:11:43. > :11:48.simply to vote for Yes. Most of the people I spoke to in the No campaign

:11:49. > :11:54.have been predicting victory. The Yes campaign have stuck to the

:11:55. > :11:57.language of "confidence and optimism" that has been the gas and

:11:58. > :12:01.petrol in the tank of the Yes campaign. I haven't heard anyone in

:12:02. > :12:07.the Yes campaign predict - I think we will win. We will ask you in a

:12:08. > :12:12.second. I think, before we ask you, I think it's fair to say - what if

:12:13. > :12:17.it was a yes? Let us consider the implications of a yes outcome. Then

:12:18. > :12:19.you begin to ask some enormous questions, not just about the future

:12:20. > :12:25.of Scotland, but about the future of the rest of the UK too. Let us join

:12:26. > :12:28.Jeremy once again. If it is a Yes tonight, there are some huge issues

:12:29. > :12:31.that will need sorting out. I thought we could go through some of

:12:32. > :12:35.them now. For a start, this year and next, there will have to be a

:12:36. > :12:41.Scottish constitutional convention. SNP plans. They will have to be a

:12:42. > :12:45.handover of assets from Scotland to England from England to Scotland and

:12:46. > :12:49.vice versa. A common travel area needs to be set up so that Scots can

:12:50. > :12:54.go to England and Wales and Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland

:12:55. > :12:56.as well. Then there is the very issue of the sterling currency

:12:57. > :13:01.union. That needs to be decided, whether it can happen or not.

:13:02. > :13:05.Scotland needs to work out, independent membership of the EU.

:13:06. > :13:10.Also, independent membership of NATO as well. Finally, create an energy

:13:11. > :13:17.fund. All of that going on, just this year and next, if the vote is

:13:18. > :13:22.Yes. You then go forward. 2016, to the 24th March. A new government in

:13:23. > :13:26.an independent Scotland. There will have to be a Scottish security and

:13:27. > :13:34.intelligence agencies agency running. A Scottish Defence Force

:13:35. > :13:45.will have to be running by 2016 with 7,3500 soldiers. A naval Squadron

:13:46. > :13:49.including two frigates. An acquisition of army brigade and

:13:50. > :13:52.acquisition of two air force squadrons including typhoons.

:13:53. > :14:00.Setting up a Scottish Foreign Ministry. That is all at the end of

:14:01. > :14:04.2016-2017. By the the end of 2018 Scotland will have full control.

:14:05. > :14:09.This is SNP plans in their white paper of welfare benefits. You spool

:14:10. > :14:13.forward to April 2020, Scotland taking full control by then. This is

:14:14. > :14:16.the plan of personal income taxes. Then you have the Scottish defence

:14:17. > :14:20.force in full control with more soldiers, maybe something like

:14:21. > :14:26.15,000. Then, finally, the really controversial one we referred to

:14:27. > :14:30.before, Trident, out of Scotland. And then, in May 2020, which in this

:14:31. > :14:34.plan seems to have come round quickly, you have a second election.

:14:35. > :14:39.A second election in Scotland in an independent Scotland. You get a

:14:40. > :14:43.sense from that, Huw, just how much there is to do if the vote is Yes.

:14:44. > :14:52.Jeremy, thank you very much. We will explore the No options as well in a

:14:53. > :14:57.short while. Given the intelligence that we have just received and given

:14:58. > :15:03.we saw that prediction there on the front page of The Times, the No camp

:15:04. > :15:08.predicting victory. We haven't had a single result yet. Let us be

:15:09. > :15:12.cautious. What does the Secretary of State of Scotland make of it all. He

:15:13. > :15:17.is with my colleague, Andrew Marr? Yes, Huw, thank you very much. I'm

:15:18. > :15:21.joined by a real, live, three-dimensional politician to talk

:15:22. > :15:25.about the future of the country. We heard John Redwood earlier on saying

:15:26. > :15:29.- whatever comes out of this, yes or no, there will be an English

:15:30. > :15:48.Parliament covering most English issues, is that your view as well?

:15:49. > :15:52.In Scotland, it took us decades to reach the consensus, but we did it

:15:53. > :15:57.by building a consensus involving not just the political parties but

:15:58. > :16:01.the Trade Unions, if business voices, local authorities and the

:16:02. > :16:06.rest of it. Conversation has to happen in England. Whether it's an

:16:07. > :16:08.English Parliament or a series of Regional Assemblies or more power

:16:09. > :16:14.for city regions or whatever, that's for them to decide, not for me to

:16:15. > :16:18.tell them. But if England wants a Parliament, there's no way anyone

:16:19. > :16:25.like the Scots can say you can't have one. If you go to the Liberals

:16:26. > :16:31.however, it would be home rule? That is what we have in our grasp now

:16:32. > :16:35.tonight if we have a No Vote here. A no volt finishes the job of

:16:36. > :16:43.devolution, brings in the extra powers of taxation of other areas to

:16:44. > :16:45.rebalance. Very unbalanced system? That unlocks constitutional reform

:16:46. > :16:52.across the whole of the United Kingdom. It unlocks, whether it's

:16:53. > :17:00.going to be an English Parliament or Regional Assemblies or whatever

:17:01. > :17:03.people want that. So for all the English and Welsh people watching

:17:04. > :17:06.tonight, don't think this is not about you, you are about to see a

:17:07. > :17:10.tsunami of political change as a result of what is happening here in

:17:11. > :17:15.Scotland tonight? Well, we unlock the door, it's for them to decide

:17:16. > :17:19.what they want to do. That's what democracy is all about. Two other

:17:20. > :17:24.issues. When I talked to Alex Salmond a week ago, he said that

:17:25. > :17:28.after this campaign, if his side won, there 'lled be no more team no,

:17:29. > :17:32.team yes, there would be team Scotland and you would be a member

:17:33. > :17:38.of it? It was classic Alex Salmond, kicking up dust, talking about the

:17:39. > :17:43.process, a political equivalent of fantasy football which really just

:17:44. > :17:49.served to detract the fact that they didn't have any real answers. I

:17:50. > :17:52.would never accuse the Secretary of State of Scotland for kicking up

:17:53. > :17:57.dust. You haven't quite answered my question, would you be a member of

:17:58. > :18:01.team Scotland? Let me tell you this now - I am already a member of team

:18:02. > :18:05.Scotland. I've always been a member of team Scotland. That is the job

:18:06. > :18:10.that I do as Scotland's voice in the Cabinet table. You wouldn't

:18:11. > :18:13.necessarily be a member of Alex Salmond's team post the negotiation?

:18:14. > :18:18.Alex Salmond I think took one remark I made and seemed to read an awful

:18:19. > :18:23.lot into it, you know. The suggestion that somehow or another

:18:24. > :18:28.I'm going to turn and become part of team Salmond, that would be a fairly

:18:29. > :18:33.substantial proposition to swallow. One final area of questions then.

:18:34. > :18:37.You represent Orkney and Shetland. If Scotland votes yes, Orkney and

:18:38. > :18:42.Shetland don't, Orkney and Shetland with their massive oil reserves and

:18:43. > :18:46.fishing stocks might go off it alone themselves hike the Isle of Man or

:18:47. > :18:49.something? What we have seen in the last few weeks has been a quite

:18:50. > :18:52.remarkable degree of ah begans coming from the nationalists about

:18:53. > :18:56.the position of the island communities. They have told us that,

:18:57. > :19:02.apparently, we have no more right to have a discussion about our own

:19:03. > :19:07.self-determination than any other town or streets in Glasgow. That is

:19:08. > :19:14.a fundamental lack of respect and understanding of how Scotland's

:19:15. > :19:18.island communities work. What I've said today and countless times over

:19:19. > :19:22.the year, if we ever decide to have that conversation for ourselves,

:19:23. > :19:25.then we are quite entitled to do that and Alex Salmond and any other

:19:26. > :19:30.nationalist is in no position to stop us from doing that. To be

:19:31. > :19:32.clear, this wouldn't be Orkney and Shetland entirely independent, it

:19:33. > :19:37.would be them choosing to join the rest of the UK? No, all we are

:19:38. > :19:43.talking about here is the right of our community to have a discussion

:19:44. > :19:47.for ourselves, with ourselves at any time. We have had a magnificent

:19:48. > :19:52.campaign about our islands and future, where we have talked to both

:19:53. > :19:58.the UK Government and the Scottish Government about getting powers for

:19:59. > :20:02.ourselves, more autonomy. One of the unintended consequences of

:20:03. > :20:07.devolution is that it's allowed the nationalists to suck up power and

:20:08. > :20:11.accountability from the community where it properly belongs in the

:20:12. > :20:21.centre of Edinburgh. Alex Salmond runs the most centralise government

:20:22. > :20:25.from Europe now. Are you feeling optimistic, a cold

:20:26. > :20:32.sweat coming on? Look, it's been a two-year campaign and there have

:20:33. > :20:38.been ups and downs in every stage of the two-year campaign. Tonight, it's

:20:39. > :20:41.a mixture of excitement, nervousen, anticipation, because, for me, and I

:20:42. > :20:45.think for everybody who's been involved in it, we are now in a

:20:46. > :20:49.position where we are powerless to alter the result in any way. The

:20:50. > :20:54.people have spoken, we need to work out what it is they have said. Very

:20:55. > :21:01.few unbitten finger nails left in Scotland. Back to Huw in the studio.

:21:02. > :21:06.Thank you to Mr Carmichael. I suppose Nick, the big interest

:21:07. > :21:13.there for us and we'll put that to Humza and Ruth in a moment, he's

:21:14. > :21:16.already taking about a No Vote and federal structure if England desires

:21:17. > :21:20.it and Wales and Northern Ireland too. The framework of that

:21:21. > :21:25.contribution talks about us better off? . It's now up to the English to

:21:26. > :21:30.have the debate the Scots will have, he said. If it's a No Vote, the

:21:31. > :21:33.Prime Minister will spell that out within hours. I think as soon as

:21:34. > :21:37.this outcome of this referendum is clear, it's very likely that David

:21:38. > :21:41.Cameron will emerge in Downing Street and start to spell out what

:21:42. > :21:45.the next moves he thinks are for Scotland, what the next moves are to

:21:46. > :21:50.deal with what is often called the English question, specifically the

:21:51. > :21:52.voting rights of Scottish MPs within Westminster, what they should be

:21:53. > :21:56.different as a result of different powers of Parliament. Broader

:21:57. > :21:59.question of devolution throughout the UK, more powers for the Welsh

:22:00. > :22:09.Assembly and Northern Ireland Assembly, but to the English

:22:10. > :22:14.regions, either as big cities or as new regions, John Prescot tried. I

:22:15. > :22:17.think it's likely that after David Cameron comes out, Ed Miliband will.

:22:18. > :22:21.We have already had Nick Clegg talking about it. The notion of

:22:22. > :22:30.English political change, it's on the agenda from now.

:22:31. > :22:34.We had a pledge from the three UK party leaders saying more powers are

:22:35. > :22:38.coming to Scotland. The Yes campaign said you can't trust them. Douglas

:22:39. > :22:46.Alexander says the No Vote will be a recommitment by the Scottish people

:22:47. > :22:50.to the settlement but they want change and Joanne Lament said it was

:22:51. > :22:53.a decision being made now, not in 1707. They are making it very clear

:22:54. > :22:57.that change is on its way in that they will hold that promise if there

:22:58. > :23:05.is a No Vote of course. Are you still at the point, Humza,

:23:06. > :23:10.at this point of this time when you are saying a No Vote is possible? We

:23:11. > :23:17.all knew that if we wanted to win this, we'd have to reach beyond

:23:18. > :23:22.reach. We don't know which way things have gone. We'll wait to see

:23:23. > :23:26.how that unfolds. A Yes Vote is not just possible but we are confident

:23:27. > :23:33.the optimism will win it out. I thought you had a refreshingly

:23:34. > :23:36.honest report from John Redwood MP and he clearly said amongst the

:23:37. > :23:39.backbenchers in the Conservatives there is a demand for the same

:23:40. > :23:43.powers being promised to Scotland. We are think they are not

:23:44. > :23:49.substantial enough of course but the powers being replicated in England,

:23:50. > :23:53.he said there would be a revolt if it wasn't there. Christopher Chote

:23:54. > :23:59.said there would be a vote. The Prime Minister can't afford that

:24:00. > :24:03.eight months ahead of an election. He can't cope with a revolt,

:24:04. > :24:08.especially when he's trying to get into Ten Downing Street. I don't

:24:09. > :24:11.think the powers will be coming at all, even the insubstantial ones we

:24:12. > :24:15.have been promised. Do you trust the Westminster leaders to deliver on

:24:16. > :24:21.what they have pledged? Absolutely. It's been the three party leaders

:24:22. > :24:24.too. The plans we drew up, the ones that have been adopted by

:24:25. > :24:30.Westminster and are coming together with the delivery plan to make into

:24:31. > :24:34.a single offer that will be in the stat jute books in March so that we

:24:35. > :24:37.all go into the general election and we vote on it and the election is

:24:38. > :24:42.ready to go as soon as that happens. That was drawn up in Scotland. We

:24:43. > :24:45.had the Strathclyde Commission for the Conservatives and Diane Abbott,

:24:46. > :24:49.possibly not keeping up with the debate in Scotland, saying nobody's

:24:50. > :24:53.saying what the powers are, we have had them on the website for months.

:24:54. > :24:57.You can see them, right at the top there, we are very proud of them.

:24:58. > :25:07.All three parties came up with very similar offers. They are not say the

:25:08. > :25:10.same though? The one we all agreed on income tax and far greater

:25:11. > :25:13.devolution. Some of my English colleagues are misunderstanding the

:25:14. > :25:17.difference between a block grant and the Barnet formula that calculates

:25:18. > :25:22.that, but I'm sure I'll be able to educate them. We also looked at the

:25:23. > :25:25.further devolution of welfare powers as well. There is a difference

:25:26. > :25:28.between where we are going in the Labour Party and the Liberal

:25:29. > :25:32.Democrats, but there's movement for further change there and it's

:25:33. > :25:36.absolutely clear across Scotland that the status co's been smashed by

:25:37. > :25:40.this Referendum Debate. We'll not have the same Scotland after this

:25:41. > :25:44.that we had before. Given the status quo is being smashed, I want to

:25:45. > :25:48.bring in more of our friends here who've been waiting patiently in the

:25:49. > :25:53.studio with us. You on the front row there, you are

:25:54. > :25:56.17 aren't you from Shetland? Yes. Which way did you vote? Yes.

:25:57. > :26:06.In a sentence, why? We heard a lot from Shetland during

:26:07. > :26:11.the campaign to do with distance and remoteness. But it say, you feeling

:26:12. > :26:14.that Edinburgh is remote, and for that reason feeling a degree of

:26:15. > :26:20.hostility. You were not in that camp? No. With the government being

:26:21. > :26:25.based in Westminster, it is quite remote. Edinburgh is still remote,

:26:26. > :26:31.but we will be closer to Edinburgh and have a louder voice. Did you

:26:32. > :26:36.take a long time to make your mind up, or where you decided from the

:26:37. > :26:43.start? Originally, before the campaign took off a year ago, I was

:26:44. > :26:48.a No supporter and quite heavily. But with encouragement from my

:26:49. > :26:52.history teacher, encouraging us to look into different political

:26:53. > :27:00.issues, I research into the opposition at the time, which were

:27:01. > :27:05.wood, so I could counter it. And in doing that, I sort of suede myself

:27:06. > :27:13.to become a Yes. It was a gradual move. And what about your fellow 16

:27:14. > :27:19.and 17-year-olds? What was your sense of their consensus? When iced

:27:20. > :27:26.tried to speak about the referendum to them, they ridiculed me. But in

:27:27. > :27:34.recent months, we have seen a lot of them that have now left school or

:27:35. > :27:37.are still in school, coming out and asking me questions and asking other

:27:38. > :27:42.people questions and having these conversations in the streets,

:27:43. > :27:47.hanging about, wherever. And where they fairly evenly split, or did you

:27:48. > :27:53.sense that most of them were in one camp or the other? From what I have

:27:54. > :28:01.seen, it is a small snapshot, but it was 50-50 in my year, half saying

:28:02. > :28:12.yes and half saying no. It seems fairly even. In the back row, you

:28:13. > :28:20.are from Glasgow. Yes, I live in the south side of Glasgow. Could I ask

:28:21. > :28:26.you how you voted? I voted No. Why? I am self-employed and I had

:28:27. > :28:32.concerns that Scotland would not be viable on its own economically. I

:28:33. > :28:37.tend to look at Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland like

:28:38. > :28:43.America. I see all the different countries like state. The states in

:28:44. > :28:48.America all have individual strength and power. And on the basis of

:28:49. > :28:55.that, they have united states of America and they are world leaders.

:28:56. > :29:01.That is the way forward for the United Kingdom. See each state as

:29:02. > :29:08.Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, as states, with senators, like Ed

:29:09. > :29:12.Miliband and all the main party leaders. But give them more

:29:13. > :29:18.strength. With that strength, they can stay united and move forward as

:29:19. > :29:24.the United Kingdom. We have our first official turnout figure. It is

:29:25. > :29:31.from Orkney, and it is 84%. That certainly is above the 1951 record,

:29:32. > :29:40.which was around 81%. If that is replicated elsewhere, in fact, I am

:29:41. > :29:48.told Clackmannanshire is at 89%. 88.6. That is remarkable. If that is

:29:49. > :29:51.replicated, Nick, that will send shock waves throughout the entire

:29:52. > :29:57.electoral process. These are massive figures. But bear in mind the

:29:58. > :30:00.backdrop to this off steadily declining participation in elections

:30:01. > :30:06.and declining participation in politics as a whole, with turnouts

:30:07. > :30:11.in UK general elections in the 60s and people anxious that it was going

:30:12. > :30:16.towards that. To get towards 90% of people taking part is extraordinary.

:30:17. > :30:22.And bear in mind, that is 90% of the 97% were registered, which itself

:30:23. > :30:29.was a record. Now that we have that figure, let's go back to the

:30:30. > :30:34.audience. You are from Glasgow, which has been such a cauldron in

:30:35. > :30:42.this campaign, with lots of people saying the SNP has had an incredible

:30:43. > :30:49.campaign. What is your sense of how that campaign has run? I think the

:30:50. > :30:55.Yes campaign and the No campaign have had strong attributes. I think

:30:56. > :30:58.the Yes campaign have had a good, strong leadership with the youth of

:30:59. > :31:03.this country, and the youth have been passionate about the Yes vote.

:31:04. > :33:25.And using the They will have big piles of votes to

:33:26. > :33:30.sort through. Just, to underline, four you, Orkney, final turn out,

:33:31. > :33:34.84%. Clackmannanshire, which is one of the smallest Local Authorities

:33:35. > :33:39.too. A bit like Orkney but in a different part of Scotland, that is

:33:40. > :33:44.an interesting place for us, because if that is turning at 89% of people

:33:45. > :33:50.taking part in this process, well, we could be in for a slightly longer

:33:51. > :33:56.night than we thought, but we could be in for an incredibly interesting

:33:57. > :34:04.bit of a roller coaster ride. Let us go to East Lothian, our

:34:05. > :34:15.correspondent is there in Haddington. Give us a sense of the

:34:16. > :34:21.process there. Yes. Well, this is an area that stretches from Musselburgh

:34:22. > :34:29.through Trennan down to north Berwick, we had the first of the 96

:34:30. > :34:36.ballot boxes coming in after 10. 35. All were in by 11.00. It looks like

:34:37. > :34:41.we might get some idea of a result round about 2.00. We have heard from

:34:42. > :34:47.across the rest of the country about extraordinary turn out figure, in

:34:48. > :34:52.terms of the postal vote here in East Lothian 95% of the hoes Tam

:34:53. > :34:56.votes were returned so we are talking about big record-breaking

:34:57. > :35:00.figures here, in East Lothian. That is replicated across the country it

:35:01. > :35:04.seem, the early indications here, I have been speaking to the Yes

:35:05. > :35:10.campaign and the Better Together, and some indications from Yes they

:35:11. > :35:15.are not expecting to win this here, in East Lothian, but their line

:35:16. > :35:20.would be would be if it was a narrow win for No they would take comfort

:35:21. > :35:25.from that, if that was replicated across Scotland that might give the

:35:26. > :35:32.Yes campaign a boost later on in the evening, because there are some

:35:33. > :35:35.quite affluent area, rural areas, round about, well 90% of this area

:35:36. > :35:47.is farmland. It is a big area, so lots of

:35:48. > :35:54.different constituencies and very mixed as well in terms of the

:35:55. > :35:57.make-up of the Council and the member of Parliament here, who is

:35:58. > :36:04.from Labour. So it is a very difficult one to call, but early

:36:05. > :36:09.indications have been that the No campaigners are quietly confident

:36:10. > :36:18.that East Lothian may go their way. Thank you for updating us and for

:36:19. > :36:20.that hint that the No campaign in East Lothian are confident. Alex and

:36:21. > :37:12.has been on social media. The First Minister has just said this.

:37:13. > :37:18.There is a conseason suspended sentence that the financial

:37:19. > :37:22.settlement we have, that the powers we here here in Wales are

:37:23. > :37:29.inadequate. This debate of course has been about where power lies and

:37:30. > :37:31.we know that the power and wealth has been concentrated and

:37:32. > :37:35.centralised round London and the south-east, and if there is a yes

:37:36. > :37:41.vote tonight, then that wealth and power will be shared a bit more

:37:42. > :37:51.equally throughout the countries of these islands. It is vital that

:37:52. > :37:56.Wales is at the forefront of these negotiations so that we make sure

:37:57. > :38:03.our voice is heard and that we get the settlement we need out of this

:38:04. > :38:07.process. If it is a No vote, we have already heard that the Barnett

:38:08. > :38:10.formula will be retained for Scotland. What are the implications

:38:11. > :38:15.for Wales and what would you be saying in some talks about the

:38:16. > :38:20.future governance of Wales within the United Kingdom? Well, Plaid

:38:21. > :38:26.Cymru has been campaigning for many years, for a reform of the Barnett

:38:27. > :38:30.formula. Wales loses out around ?300 million every year to our public

:38:31. > :38:34.services because of the way our funding is calculated. And with the

:38:35. > :38:39.promise to Scots in the event of a no vote that that Barnett formula

:38:40. > :38:45.would remain, that causes a problem for us in Wales. So we need to make

:38:46. > :38:48.sure this process delivers the fair funding that Wales needs, because we

:38:49. > :38:54.have already been hit by the austerity politics from the

:38:55. > :39:08.Westminster government and this ?300 million we are losing every year is

:39:09. > :39:13.giving us too much of a hit. Let me go strict to Belfast to Mark

:39:14. > :39:16.Devenport, our political editor. Your thoughts on the interest that

:39:17. > :39:25.Northern Ireland has in the outcome? We have already discussed

:39:26. > :39:32.the potential for a Yes or No vote. Let's say it is a No vote. What

:39:33. > :39:37.would be the petitions for Northern Ireland's governments? Maybe the

:39:38. > :39:40.repercussions would be less seismic than a Yes vote, which would put the

:39:41. > :39:45.constitutional status of Northern Ireland once more into the melting

:39:46. > :39:47.pot. But they No vote would have serious repercussions here, because

:39:48. > :39:50.there would be discussions about extra powers for Scotland, and that

:39:51. > :39:54.would beg the question of what extra powers should be given to Stormont.

:39:55. > :39:58.Top of the shopping list here is the notion of devolving corporation

:39:59. > :40:01.tax, because businesses here compete with businesses south of the Irish

:40:02. > :40:05.border, which enjoy a much lower headline rate of operation tax. So

:40:06. > :40:10.there was cross-party agreement on that. In relation to other powers,

:40:11. > :40:15.that might potentially set Unionists against nationalists, because

:40:16. > :40:18.nationalists are more sceptical about getting extra powers in case

:40:19. > :40:22.that ends up with a constitutional thin end of the wedge.

:40:23. > :40:26.Ast, and if there is a yes vote tonight, then that wealth and power

:40:27. > :40:29.will be shared a bit more equally throughout the countries of these

:40:30. > :40:33.islands. Who will look at the options in the event of a No vote If

:40:34. > :40:39.there is a No we have a great promise made by the three party

:40:40. > :40:44.leaders, the unionist party leaders that this Barnett Formula sound dull

:40:45. > :40:47.but is all about cash, it is about the amount of public spending here

:40:48. > :40:50.in Scotland. We have heard in Wales they don't want that to happen. We

:40:51. > :40:54.know that English Tory MPs don't want to it happen so you have a

:40:55. > :40:57.conflict that is going on between what has been promised in order to

:40:58. > :41:04.try and which this referendum here in Scotland and what is acceptable

:41:05. > :41:07.to people in Wales and England without having an obvious route

:41:08. > :41:12.through. What about the way the argument is developing here now,

:41:13. > :41:18.because if you look at, again, I am stressing it is early, if you lock

:41:19. > :41:26.at the potential for a No vote. How will that play out? You will have

:41:27. > :41:29.whatever happen, There will have been a substantial number of people

:41:30. > :41:35.who voted for it to be an independent country. When the SNP

:41:36. > :41:42.stood in the 1992 election their slogan was free by 93 and they were

:41:43. > :41:46.laughed at. They were a laughing stock, they returned three MPs to

:41:47. > :41:50.Westminster. Now they are the government of Scotland. They have

:41:51. > :41:55.had this referendum and whatever way it goes they will have had a

:41:56. > :42:00.substantial proportion of the country being persuaded Scotland

:42:01. > :42:05.should be an independent country. Have persuaded people it could be an

:42:06. > :42:09.independent country. If less change follows along that road, there will

:42:10. > :42:16.be problems in Scotland to come. Let us think for a second. I will get

:42:17. > :42:23.Ruth in in a moment, let us explore maybe a little more the attitudes to

:42:24. > :42:25.independence, to Scottish independence among voters, not

:42:26. > :42:27.principally in Scotland, that is what tonight is about, the

:42:28. > :42:32.referendum is about, but in other parts of the UK. We have heard from

:42:33. > :42:37.Belfast, Wales, let us go to Jeremy again. . It is interesting looking

:42:38. > :42:41.at the attitudes to independence. Let us start with Scotland. How

:42:42. > :42:44.should Scotland be governed? Look at the Scottish views going back 15

:42:45. > :42:50.years or so. And see how they have changed. Here we have, as you can

:42:51. > :42:53.see 15 years ago, devolution was the main answer being given by the vast

:42:54. > :42:57.majority of people here, independence was low down the list,

:42:58. > :43:02.and then very few people saying no Parliament at all. So the pink line,

:43:03. > :43:07.those saying nothing is needed is low. Adds time goes on, you can see

:43:08. > :43:13.demands for independence increase, and we get to 2005, and then an SNP

:43:14. > :43:18.minority Government comes in and they seem to assuage the

:43:19. > :43:20.independence demands a bit and devolution becomes the prefer

:43:21. > :43:24.option, few people with the pink line saying no Parliament at all.

:43:25. > :43:30.Get to the end, you are close to the independence referendum. You see the

:43:31. > :43:33.line progressing and it is largely devolution, from start to finish,

:43:34. > :43:37.with independence coming down and coming back up. Then we get to the

:43:38. > :43:41.last year. If you start just from last September, let us look at what

:43:42. > :43:45.happened here, you start with the polls, ending in the place the last

:43:46. > :43:52.graph left them in. Let us look. Hoare we go. The No vote on 50%.

:43:53. > :43:58.This is about a year ago. The Yes vote and don't knows on 18. The

:43:59. > :44:01.polls show the No vote holding roughly steady but the Yes vote

:44:02. > :44:08.showing, it has a lot of potential to rise. If you get to threw the

:44:09. > :44:13.summer here, July, August -- through. It is still on 50% the No

:44:14. > :44:18.vote. It is looking like the No vote is going to win in in the referendum

:44:19. > :44:23.which is only a month away. Then you get this moment when the polls snap

:44:24. > :44:27.together. 46-44. Anyone's guess what the result is. That is why the

:44:28. > :44:31.timing of the referendum from the nationalists point of view has been

:44:32. > :44:35.so, so sweet. But the discussion about the attitudes of other parts

:44:36. > :44:39.of the country is fascinating. Wales, Northern Ireland and England.

:44:40. > :44:43.Let us look now at this question. How do you think Scotland should be

:44:44. > :44:48.governed? These are eEnglish views. I will bring this graph on. We can

:44:49. > :44:53.look. Going back about 15 years. Let us see. Devolution is by far the

:44:54. > :44:56.biggest answerment look at that. Nearly two thirds saying devolution.

:44:57. > :45:01.Not many people saying independence for Scotland. Not many people saying

:45:02. > :45:05.no Parliament at all. Most people thinking devolution is the answer.

:45:06. > :45:10.Gradually we go through and you have the SNP in Holyrood, in a minority

:45:11. > :45:14.and then a majority Government. Independence starts to come up in

:45:15. > :45:17.England. People think that is maybe the next step. There are people

:45:18. > :45:22.getting more cheesed off it looks like in England saying no Parliament

:45:23. > :45:25.at all. By the end of this graph, which remember is English attitudes

:45:26. > :45:29.to Scottish independence September 2013. People come back with the idea

:45:30. > :45:33.maybe devolution is the thing. People put off independence in

:45:34. > :45:37.England, possibly as a result of the last month or two, six months of

:45:38. > :45:41.campaigning, thinking devolution is the only answer. So that is England.

:45:42. > :45:44.Now, again, you can see differences between England and Scotland, if we

:45:45. > :45:48.look at this issue, this question, compared with other parts of the UK.

:45:49. > :45:52.How much Government spending does Scotland get? Let us look at the

:45:53. > :45:58.Scottish Annes on this. If we look at this. -- answers. Most Scots

:45:59. > :46:02.thinking they don't get enough. Some thinking they get a fair share, very

:46:03. > :46:07.few saying Scotland gets more than it should. This is going back 15

:46:08. > :46:12.years. Let us watch this graph. It is interesting. Because the less

:46:13. > :46:16.people saying, Scotland doesn't get enough starts to come down. Those

:46:17. > :46:23.who say Scotland gets a fair share comes up and this could be related

:46:24. > :46:26.to Holyrood, to the SNP coming in in Holyrood and starting to convince

:46:27. > :46:32.voters that things in Scotland are working better for them. Very few,

:46:33. > :46:38.the pink line, very few Scots saying Scotland gets more than it should.

:46:39. > :46:41.Move the graph on, here we go. You see again, those saying Scotland

:46:42. > :46:46.getting a fair share, those saying that it gets less than it should,

:46:47. > :46:50.roughly level pegging, so there is a level of dissatisfaction about the

:46:51. > :46:54.amount of money it gets. If you look at the English answer, the same

:46:55. > :46:58.question. Compared with other parts of the UK, how much Government

:46:59. > :47:03.spending does Scotland get? We look at the English answers. It is almost

:47:04. > :47:09.reversed. So top answer fair share, most 42% of people saying it is

:47:10. > :47:12.fair. 21% of people saying Scotland gets more than it should and have

:47:13. > :47:16.few saying it ought to have more money. Through we go. This is 15

:47:17. > :47:23.year, you can see most people saying fair share. Gradually English voters

:47:24. > :47:27.thinking they are getting too much. You could sigh partly as a result

:47:28. > :47:30.possibly of Scottish devolution English voters saying more and more

:47:31. > :47:34.Scotland is getting too much money. How dramatic is that? More English

:47:35. > :47:39.voters saying Scotland gets too much money. Those saying it gets a fair

:47:40. > :47:43.share coming down here and by the way, look at the blue line. This was

:47:44. > :47:46.the leading line in Scotland, these are people who think Scotland

:47:47. > :47:49.doesn't get enough. By the end of this graph you really, it comes

:47:50. > :47:54.together at the end partly because maybe as a result of the referendum

:47:55. > :47:58.debate English voters think Scotland isn't getting over much money, maybe

:47:59. > :48:03.it does need a bit more, but the thrust of this is that the attitude

:48:04. > :48:07.towards spending in Scotland, if you compare Scottish answers and English

:48:08. > :48:13.answers is very very different. Thank you very much.

:48:14. > :48:19.And thank you very much indeed. Back we come to our guests here, in the

:48:20. > :48:23.referendum result studio. Before we pick up on those interesting

:48:24. > :48:26.attitudes that he was telling about news we are getting in, more

:48:27. > :48:31.intelligence, what do we have? This isn't a result but we have news from

:48:32. > :48:35.Falkirk where Better Together say the result is tight but they think

:48:36. > :48:40.that No will win comfortably. You might say Better Together would say

:48:41. > :48:44.that, wouldn't they, but they have. Saying that about other counts, if

:48:45. > :48:47.there is a No vote that will be surprising, you might have thought

:48:48. > :48:53.that was an area that was more likely to vote yes. It has an

:48:54. > :48:57.interesting political history. There is where Dennis Canavan was a Labour

:48:58. > :49:01.MP, Troyed to stand as a Labour MSP when the Scottish Parliament was

:49:02. > :49:05.created in 1999 but he wasn't selected by the Labour Party. So he

:49:06. > :49:09.stood against the official Labour candidate, he won a thumping

:49:10. > :49:16.majority. He stood again in 2003. He got the biggest majority in the cosh

:49:17. > :49:20.Parliament where is he now? The chair of the Yes Scotland campaign.

:49:21. > :49:24.He has made the journey towards Yes. You might have expected a few people

:49:25. > :49:29.in Falkirk would have gone with him, that has been voting SNP in Holyrood

:49:30. > :49:34.elections recently, if Better Together are right and they think

:49:35. > :49:39.there is a comfortable win for the No camp that will be interesting.

:49:40. > :49:43.The intelligence is in the die-hard Labour areas, the Yes campaign is

:49:44. > :49:48.starting to breakthrough strongly. That is initial postal ballot

:49:49. > :49:51.sampling, all the caveats, etc but that will be really an important

:49:52. > :49:56.battleground which I am sure you will be covering, and people will be

:49:57. > :50:01.watching carefully. You say starting to breakthrough. We are hearing it

:50:02. > :50:06.has been positive for Yes. I spent, the last six hours of the campaign

:50:07. > :50:09.in Easterhouse in the East End of Glasgow, traditional Labour

:50:10. > :50:13.heartland, and incredible the support. Would you have expect to

:50:14. > :50:19.win Falkirk? I don't think we expect anything. I mean, we are throwing

:50:20. > :50:26.everything at it. We have thrown everything at it. We will wait the's

:50:27. > :50:31.the result. I think the SNP, the Yes campaign would need to win seats and

:50:32. > :50:36.Local Authority areas like Falkirk to be assured of victory. I am

:50:37. > :50:41.having intelligence that looks like No might have lost out in North

:50:42. > :50:44.Lanarkshire. It's a bigger area, a much bigger local authority area,

:50:45. > :50:49.more people than Falkirk, but it is looking like it is going to be round

:50:50. > :50:55.the 51-49 for Yes. That is disappointing. I want to win them

:50:56. > :51:00.all. What is coming across here, is there has been a Titanic campaign,

:51:01. > :51:09.between the SNP and the Labour Party, for west central Scotland

:51:10. > :51:13.votes, and in areas, such as Moray, Banff and Buchan, Aberdeenshire,

:51:14. > :51:16.Dumfries and Galloway where there is stronger liberal Conservative

:51:17. > :51:21.heartland, that the vote for no has held much stronger, I think that has

:51:22. > :51:25.been replicated. I take a pop at the posters earlier bun of the things

:51:26. > :51:29.they did was try to marry up voting intentions or how they voted at the

:51:30. > :51:34.last Scottish election with how they are going to vote this time round.

:51:35. > :51:41.Up to a fifth of SNP voters were voting No. A third of Labour voters

:51:42. > :51:46.were voting Yes. Every poll, well over 90% of Tory voters are voting

:51:47. > :51:51.No. We may have the Tories to keep the union together. We have just

:51:52. > :51:57.heard Alex Salmond has cancelled his visit to his Aberdeenshire count,

:51:58. > :52:01.that is where his own local count where his Scottish constituency is.

:52:02. > :52:05.He is planning to travel to Edinburgh later on on Friday, but

:52:06. > :52:09.read into it what you will, but the SNP spokesman says he is no longer

:52:10. > :52:16.planning to turn up at the Aberdeen count. We don't know, but those

:52:17. > :52:21.sorts of desituations about where people are placed are -- decisions.

:52:22. > :52:26.Falkirk, William Wallace, Braveheart. Battle of Falkirk, they

:52:27. > :52:31.will be seen as symbolic, as well as important, in terms of adding the

:52:32. > :52:34.votes up in each column. But the Lanarkshire vote would be very

:52:35. > :52:38.important, in this battle in what is called the central belt. The

:52:39. > :52:43.traditional Labour heartland and the extent to which they have switched

:52:44. > :52:47.to the SNP. Let us pause. Ruth, you maybe leaving us, but it is nice to

:52:48. > :52:49.have you. We are going to just fake a pause, and we will catch up with

:52:50. > :53:01.the latest summary of the news. Hello. A summary of the main news.

:53:02. > :53:04.The polls have closed and counting is under way, in the Scottish

:53:05. > :53:10.independence referendum. No Exit Polls were conducted during the

:53:11. > :53:17.historic ballot, but a YouGov survey predicted the No camp is on 54%

:53:18. > :53:25.compared to 46 for the Yes campaign. The final result is expected after

:53:26. > :53:31.6.00 in the morning. It might not be the colour you are

:53:32. > :53:35.used to, or in the right country, but this Scottish Statue of Liberty

:53:36. > :53:41.does give you the gist of the campaign for independence. Yes, they

:53:42. > :53:47.have been rather fired up. We usually use that wee room at the

:53:48. > :53:51.side here but today they have the whole assembly hall, because there

:53:52. > :53:55.is so many people coming in to vote. It is a once in a lifetime

:53:56. > :54:01.opportunity, to take Scotland's future into Scotland's hands.

:54:02. > :54:06.Tonight, the nocturnal arithmetic is under way. Here the ballot boxes

:54:07. > :54:11.arrive in Glasgow, meanwhile down the road in Falkirk, and in

:54:12. > :54:15.Dumbarton, the adding up has begun. Who says people couldn't care less

:54:16. > :54:20.about politics? People have queued to vote. Turn out is expected to be

:54:21. > :54:26.huge. Those hoping Scotland will remain part of the UK, the No

:54:27. > :54:33.campaign say a No vote tonight would be the beginning. A No vote finishes

:54:34. > :54:37.the job of devolution. It brings taxation and other areas that the

:54:38. > :54:42.needed to finish the job, to rebalance it. We will have an

:54:43. > :54:45.unbalanced system. That unlocks constitutional reform across the

:54:46. > :54:48.United Kingdom, it unlocks whether it is going to be an English

:54:49. > :54:55.Parliament or regional assembly or what the people of England want.

:54:56. > :54:59.Anman poll done by YouGov after people voted suggest that Scotland

:55:00. > :55:04.will vote No but only one poll counts and that is the actual one,

:55:05. > :55:08.and so far, we have had no real results yet. It might have gone

:55:09. > :55:12.midnight but this is just the warm up.

:55:13. > :55:18.A new video has been released which appears to show a British journalist

:55:19. > :55:23.being held captive by Islamic state extremist. John cattily was captured

:55:24. > :55:27.while working at a newspaper journalist in the latest footage he

:55:28. > :55:30.is seen sitting behind a desk, dressed in orange clothes delivering

:55:31. > :55:35.a scripted speech to camera. Manufacture The US Senate has

:55:36. > :55:39.approved President Obama's plan to arm and train moderate Syrian

:55:40. > :55:42.rebels, to fight Islamic State militants. It is part of

:55:43. > :55:47.Washington's cam pin to fight the group which has taken control of a

:55:48. > :55:51.swathe of territory across Syria and Iraq. Speaking after, President

:55:52. > :55:56.Obama welcomed the Senate vote and also praised France for its decision

:55:57. > :56:01.to join air strikes against Islamic State in Iraq.

:56:02. > :56:07.Detectives in London investigating the disappearance of Alice Gross

:56:08. > :56:12.have named a Latvian builder as the prime suspect. Police said he had

:56:13. > :56:18.served a prison sentence in Latvia for murdering his wife. He was

:56:19. > :56:24.missing a week after 14-year-old Alice disappeared in late August.

:56:25. > :56:27.The schoolgirl was last seen on the towpath that the cyclist used to get

:56:28. > :56:32.to work. Police in Thailand say they still

:56:33. > :56:37.have not identified any suspect in the hunt for the killer or killers

:56:38. > :56:42.of two British tourists. The bodies of Hannah with regen David Miller

:56:43. > :56:47.were found on a beach on an island on Monday. Also today, Thailand's

:56:48. > :56:50.Prime Minister apologised for suggesting that it is unsafe for

:56:51. > :56:54.female tourists to wear bikinis. The comments were widely criticised as

:56:55. > :57:08.insensitive. That is it for now. Back to Scotland

:57:09. > :57:14.Decides. Welcome back to Scotland Decides. In

:57:15. > :57:17.a moment, we will look at some of the Council and talk to our

:57:18. > :57:22.colleagues to see when we might expect a first declaration. I'm told

:57:23. > :57:27.the turnout in Renfrewshire is again 87%, and exceptional turnout

:57:28. > :57:33.mirroring that in Clackmannanshire, which underlines that we expect a

:57:34. > :57:37.record turnout all round. Let's go to Andrew Neil in West Mr.

:57:38. > :57:41.We have been told the Queen is to make a written statement this

:57:42. > :57:51.afternoon. What she says will depend on the results. The Westminster

:57:52. > :57:55.consensus here is that No has won. They may be in for a shock when the

:57:56. > :58:09.results come in, but that is the basis on which they are proceeding.

:58:10. > :58:14.Even if it is a No vote, we are on the brink of constitutional upheaval

:58:15. > :58:17.across the UK? Absolutely. Shortly after first light, a line will have

:58:18. > :58:28.been scored across the history of these islands. Because of the

:58:29. > :58:37.percussive effects of the Scottish question, the English will rise. We

:58:38. > :58:57.heard a lot in the discussion. Then into Number Ten with the well

:58:58. > :59:02.rehearsed spontaneity. Elections we know about, but there is no press

:59:03. > :59:06.department for this. So it is very interesting the Queen will put out a

:59:07. > :59:14.written statement. I can't think of any parallel. The issue would seem

:59:15. > :59:18.to me, if there is going to be substantial, if England is going to

:59:19. > :59:22.speak, I don't for the lie of me see how the Government can keep to the

:59:23. > :59:26.Gordon Brown timetable, that the Home Rule deal for Scotland will be

:59:27. > :59:32.in place by the election: Yes I think that is true. This is the big

:59:33. > :59:35.question, the English view of this, because we have talked about the

:59:36. > :59:39.United Kingdom, it is right. This is the end of the United Kingdom as we

:59:40. > :59:43.know it. This is a big part for the English as well. If there is a Yes

:59:44. > :59:47.vote it changes so much about the United Kingdom. Even basic things

:59:48. > :59:52.like the flag and it changes the Queen's role. That is really why the

:59:53. > :59:57.Palace is following it so closely. Simply the timetable as you say, it

:59:58. > :00:03.is very tight. I can't see how, if there is a Yes vote because there

:00:04. > :00:08.has been so little plans, how that could move forward. Will there not

:00:09. > :00:11.be a demand from backbenchers on Labour and Conservative sides, for

:00:12. > :00:17.any Mo towards Home Rule for Scotland to be seen in the context

:00:18. > :00:22.of an overall UK convention? . There will be and there should be. We have

:00:23. > :00:25.a habit of doing things in slice, we have an aversion to looking at our

:00:26. > :00:31.Government as a. Is. We have to look at it as a system. The best thing to

:00:32. > :00:34.do is a white paper saying we are going for Devo Max but we are

:00:35. > :00:40.looking at the knock on effects for England. Wales is on the track for

:00:41. > :00:43.further devolution, the silk two proposals and Northern Ireland which

:00:44. > :00:47.is a special case. What we need is a Royal Commission or convention to

:00:48. > :00:50.look at the whole. It would be absurd to rush it, because

:00:51. > :00:57.constitution... You can't do Home Rule by May of next year for

:00:58. > :01:01.Scotland? Constitutions have to be carefully constructed so they endure

:01:02. > :01:07.and they bring stability and predictability. This to be unkind to

:01:08. > :01:13.the party leaders, is classic Tommy Cooper you put a few Devo Max

:01:14. > :01:35.clauses on the back of an envelope. Is the Queen right to stay out,

:01:36. > :01:42.unlike the devolution debate? It will compromise her position when

:01:43. > :01:50.she is Monaco Scotland and encourage a referendum.

:01:51. > :01:56.Inevitably, the debate will move here. From first light this morning.

:01:57. > :01:58.Well, first light is still a little while away.

:01:59. > :02:14.Now back to Scotland Decides. Thanks to Andrew. We are hoping for

:02:15. > :02:19.results before first light. We should get some good hints before

:02:20. > :02:26.then. We have already had a hint from Falkirk. I mentioned that the

:02:27. > :02:34.smallest authority come Clackmannanshire, the electorate

:02:35. > :02:39.there are in a race to get the first declaration out. Our correspondent

:02:40. > :02:46.is over there now. What is your sense of the progress of the count

:02:47. > :02:51.there? The count here is making very fast progress indeed.

:02:52. > :02:55.Clackmannanshire being such a small county, did not take long for the

:02:56. > :03:01.ballot boxes to arrive at the town Hall. In terms of how things are

:03:02. > :03:07.going, some people had predicted that Clackmannanshire was perhaps

:03:08. > :03:10.the most likely place in Scotland to vote Yes. But talking to the people

:03:11. > :03:17.here, it is safe to say that the Better Together campaigners here are

:03:18. > :03:19.looking a bit relieved and some of yes Scotland campaigners are looking

:03:20. > :03:23.more anxious than you might have expected. This place is perhaps not

:03:24. > :03:26.following quite the script that might have been written by some

:03:27. > :03:30.beforehand. We respect in result here at two o'clock, and it is

:03:31. > :03:36.certainly going to be washed closely across Scotland. If the script that

:03:37. > :03:38.Sam had written is to be believed, if it is a No vote here in

:03:39. > :03:44.Clackmannanshire, it would certainly appear to reduce the possibility of

:03:45. > :03:51.a Yes vote across Scotland. Is there any sense that the declaration is

:03:52. > :03:57.near, or have you any sense of timing is there? Some sense of

:03:58. > :04:02.timing. BR bigging up now that the declaration may come just before two

:04:03. > :04:08.o'clock, maybe a bit earlier than we expected before. I wish I could say

:04:09. > :04:20.we were smiling at that point, but thank you very much! Well, if it is

:04:21. > :04:24.two o'clock, I am delighted to say that Margaret Curran is with us and

:04:25. > :04:29.Patrick Harvie is with us as well. What I meant to say was that Better

:04:30. > :04:34.Together were saying something about South Ayrshire. Yes, they are saying

:04:35. > :04:39.the early signs are positive in South Ayrshire. It is similar to

:04:40. > :04:42.what we are hearing from Clackmannanshire. South Ayrshire is

:04:43. > :04:48.very much in the middle of weather predictions were, so it will be

:04:49. > :04:51.interesting to see how that goes. Slightly older population there, a

:04:52. > :05:00.lot of retirees. Traditionally, the over 65s have been reluctant to vote

:05:01. > :05:03.Yes. It is the one group the Yes vote have failed to reach. Could be

:05:04. > :05:12.an indication of how the rest of the night will go. We are hearing that

:05:13. > :05:17.Inverclyde is heading for 88%. On that note, Margaret and Patrick, a

:05:18. > :05:24.remarkable benchmark in this democratic process. What is your

:05:25. > :05:31.sense of how things are going at the moment? Well, the turnout is

:05:32. > :05:36.remarkable. But it is interesting. The pattern seems to be that the No

:05:37. > :05:50.side of the argument seemed more upbeat, with some of the Yes side

:05:51. > :05:54.not so sure. It is a closely fought argument. People are taking this

:05:55. > :05:59.desperately seriously. Also, voters had a real sense of responsibility,

:06:00. > :06:02.and that has weighed on their shoulders of it, the huge

:06:03. > :06:07.medications of this. They knew it was certainly a once in a generation

:06:08. > :06:12.decision with enormous implications for themselves and their children

:06:13. > :06:16.and grandchildren. You often heard that on the doorstep. So people took

:06:17. > :06:21.this seriously and I think perhaps the Yes campaign have answered some

:06:22. > :06:26.of those questions in the last few days. Patrick, your perspective?

:06:27. > :06:33.Well, let's look at that turnout. It is clearly the highest turnout since

:06:34. > :06:37.the post-war generation. If it is up to beyond 85%, it is the highest

:06:38. > :06:42.turnout in the age of the modern universal franchise, modern

:06:43. > :06:47.democracy. Either -- I think that speak about the seizing of a moment

:06:48. > :06:53.of the opportunity to challenge what is in many people's eyes a broken

:06:54. > :06:55.political system that has been propping up a broken economic system

:06:56. > :07:00.that no longer works in the interests of most people. I think

:07:01. > :07:03.people in Scotland have been channelling that legitimate anger

:07:04. > :07:06.about a broken political and economic system into something

:07:07. > :07:12.positive during this campaign. If it is a Yes vote, we clearly have a

:07:13. > :07:16.path forward in managing the transition to an independent

:07:17. > :07:19.country. It is a No vote, it becomes more challenging but still vital to

:07:20. > :07:26.capture that energy and make sure we can build alliances with people will

:07:27. > :07:29.swear in these islands who share the anger, many of whom have not been

:07:30. > :07:33.turning out to vote in any election is because they see a political

:07:34. > :07:39.system that is not representative of them and is not serving the

:07:40. > :07:43.interests of the common good. Politicians across the world will be

:07:44. > :07:49.looking at these turnout figures and wondering how we can get people to

:07:50. > :07:52.be this engaged in our democracy. Of course, it is the enormity of the

:07:53. > :07:57.question and the significance of this vote that has turned people out

:07:58. > :08:00.to vote. It has been completely different from a general election,

:08:01. > :08:03.partly because it has not been politicians talking to the voters.

:08:04. > :08:08.Voters have been talking to each other. They have done it on social

:08:09. > :08:11.media, something relatively new in electioneering. They have also done

:08:12. > :08:14.it in town halls, shops, pubs, meetings, thousands turning out

:08:15. > :08:18.every night not just to listen to elected MPs and MSPs begin to them,

:08:19. > :08:22.but people talking to each other, grassroots campaigners edging out.

:08:23. > :08:29.And the conversation has gone on between voters. That is one of the

:08:30. > :08:32.reasons people have come so engaged. Patrick, at this stage of the night

:08:33. > :08:38.MO I know it is not an easy question, but but is your sense? We

:08:39. > :08:43.have heard from quite a few people so far that Better Together feel

:08:44. > :08:48.pretty buoyant. Maybe that is misplaced, but what is your sense?

:08:49. > :08:54.It is the easiest question to ask the hardest one to answer. We don't

:08:55. > :08:57.know until you count all the little pieces of paper. That is what the

:08:58. > :09:01.whole process is about. Until we get some actual results in, we will not

:09:02. > :09:06.know. The pollsters acknowledged that with a high turnout, it

:09:07. > :09:13.increases their margin of error. So we don't know how accurate the polls

:09:14. > :09:16.have been. The question of whether Scotland should be an independent

:09:17. > :09:19.country is only part of this. Scotland has been debating for

:09:20. > :09:24.several years now what kind of country it wants to be. That is a

:09:25. > :09:27.deeper, open-ended conversation that has been happening. And it is

:09:28. > :09:32.because it has gone way beyond the bounds of traditional politics and

:09:33. > :09:36.party lines that it has engaged people who have been justifiably

:09:37. > :09:46.angry and disillusioned about politics. That is why it has come

:09:47. > :09:51.close to a victory. That would not happen if this were the traditional

:09:52. > :09:55.political process. We will be back with Margaret and you in the second.

:09:56. > :10:00.BR after clues as to which local authority areas have the

:10:01. > :10:04.characteristics which might suggest that they are more likely to vote

:10:05. > :10:14.for the retention of the union. Let us remind oust, if we look at

:10:15. > :10:19.our 32 councils we haven't got any result, when they come in, grown for

:10:20. > :10:22.Yes, red for No. We will put the percentages on the board and you

:10:23. > :10:27.will see the councils gradually stacking up and we will have numbers

:10:28. > :10:33.and until then we definitely don't know. If I order them in size,

:10:34. > :10:38.again, just to make clear, these are the vital councils, the ones with

:10:39. > :10:42.the oomph in this election. Glasgow with 500,000 voters, Edinburgh,

:10:43. > :10:47.Fife. North and South Lanarkshire. Aberdeenshire and gradually they get

:10:48. > :10:52.smaller. As they get smaller they may be counting faster so we may

:10:53. > :10:56.hear from Orkney, Shetland and Clackmannanshire before the bigger

:10:57. > :11:00.one, these we will be looking at. A reminder, talking about what we

:11:01. > :11:04.think may happen, but look at this. This is where we are at the moment.

:11:05. > :11:09.We are locking for results. What is happening? Three progressing squares

:11:10. > :11:14.means they are still thinking. Do we have any results yet. No we don't.

:11:15. > :11:20.We will fill emthem in when we do. As Huw said we can look for clues.

:11:21. > :11:25.What I have done here, is ordered the council boxes by identity, by

:11:26. > :11:29.British. If you ask people how they identify themselves they can say if

:11:30. > :11:33.they live in Scotland, Scottish, Scottish and British or just

:11:34. > :11:36.British. Here we see the councils where people say just British.

:11:37. > :11:43.Shetlands most of all. Aguile and Bute. Edinburgh. Moray, lots of

:11:44. > :11:48.English retire re-s and down we go. Come down and then towards the end

:11:49. > :11:54.of our vault here, you will see in the distance very very grey, faded

:11:55. > :11:58.purple. Inverclyde, very heavy, strong Scottish identity. It is the

:11:59. > :12:02.case where people identify themselves as British, they are more

:12:03. > :12:07.likely to vote against independence. So we will again, clue, patterns is

:12:08. > :12:13.what we are looking for, Shetlands. Argyll and Bute. Edinburgh, could

:12:14. > :12:18.that be votes No? Just on this index alone? We will -- well probably not.

:12:19. > :12:23.It is worth discussing it and airing it. One more. This is councils by

:12:24. > :12:27.age. We know that bear in mind tend to be more worried about the idea of

:12:28. > :12:32.independence. You see Argyll and Bute there. Dumfries and Galloway.

:12:33. > :12:36.More older voters there. That is on the border with England. Thought

:12:37. > :12:41.likely to vote no. Scottish border, again on the border with England.

:12:42. > :12:44.Are we looking here at the No councils? Come on down the blocks

:12:45. > :12:51.with me. Look at the other end of the vault. Let us see where the

:12:52. > :12:57.fewest older people are. West Dunbartonshire, Dundee City. Thought

:12:58. > :13:04.likely to vote Yes. Edinburgh a very young city. So two we could look at.

:13:05. > :13:09.British identity and age as a clue to which councils may vote no. But I

:13:10. > :13:11.stress, looking at the blocks earlier the three progressing

:13:12. > :13:16.squares remind us we don't have any numbers yet. Huw.

:13:17. > :13:23.We don't. Thank you very much. Hopefully we will have some soon. We

:13:24. > :13:33.mentioned full cashing earlier -- Falkirk earlier. Mr Canavan is with

:13:34. > :13:40.Andrew Marr. Let us join them now. Thank you. As you heard from Sarah,

:13:41. > :13:45.Dennis Canavan was a Labour MP, albeit rebellious and he has moved

:13:46. > :13:49.over to chair the Yes campaign. Why did you make that journey? I was

:13:50. > :13:55.virtually born and brought up in the Labour Party. I was a Labour MP at

:13:56. > :14:00.Westminster, for 26 years. Followed by eight years as an independent

:14:01. > :14:03.member of the Scottish Parliament. I have been retired for seven years

:14:04. > :14:07.and retirement gives you time to think. I have come to the

:14:08. > :14:11.conclusion, that Westminster is completely out of touch with the

:14:12. > :14:15.people of Scotland, whereas the Scottish Parliament responds far

:14:16. > :14:20.more effectively, far more positively to the wishes, the needs

:14:21. > :14:24.and the aspirations of the people of Scotland, on things like the

:14:25. > :14:29.abolition of the university tuition fees. Is this the way to get

:14:30. > :14:33.socialism in Scotland, do it through a Yes campaign, rather than the

:14:34. > :14:38.Labour Party? I think there would be a better chance of a left of centre

:14:39. > :14:44.agenda being a consensus within the people of Scotland, and within the

:14:45. > :14:48.Scottish Parliament. Compared to the wishy washy diluted nonsense we have

:14:49. > :14:53.to experience at Westminster, where even the Leader of the Opposition,

:14:54. > :14:57.Ed Miliband, is intent on continuing the Tory benefit cap, is intent on

:14:58. > :15:03.cutting further the welfare for young people and keeping the Trident

:15:04. > :15:07.nuclear weapon. This is anathema to most Scots. You are chairman of the

:15:08. > :15:13.Yes campaign. You have heard that YouGov are calling it for No. Sarah

:15:14. > :15:16.was talking about Falkirk. You were MP for Falkirk West. There are

:15:17. > :15:22.suggestions that Falkirk might vote No. Which would be a huge blow for

:15:23. > :15:28.the Yes campaign. That suggestion is based on the postal votes. Now, the

:15:29. > :15:33.postal votes in Falkirk, or anywhere else for that matter, they are not a

:15:34. > :15:44.representative sample of the population as a whole. So go wearily

:15:45. > :15:47.I spent going round Falkirk, places like Stenhousemuir, a great

:15:48. > :15:50.reception, campaign workers are telling us up and down the country,

:15:51. > :15:56.that we are going to get a good result. I am optimistic, despite the

:15:57. > :16:01.Exit Polls or whatever. Your pecker is still up at this point?

:16:02. > :16:05.Absolutely. I am certainly not conceding, and you know, I have been

:16:06. > :16:10.campaigning for this, for the last couple of years now, that we set up

:16:11. > :16:15.a campaign, and I think we have, we have built up the most successful

:16:16. > :16:19.grass roots community based campaign that Scotland has seen, and I think

:16:20. > :16:23.we can still win the famous victory. You don't think there are signs that

:16:24. > :16:30.things are looking bleaker than they were a couple of hours ago? I accept

:16:31. > :16:35.a slight disappointment in that Exit Poll, but I am still optimistic,

:16:36. > :16:40.there is no declarations of any results from any local authority

:16:41. > :16:45.area, in Scotland, and I trust Mary Pitcaithly the Returning Officer,

:16:46. > :16:51.who used to be the Chief Executive of Falkirk council, and I trust her

:16:52. > :16:56.to do the vote accurately. Dennis Canavan and his perk, thank you for

:16:57. > :17:00.joining us. Thank you very much. Thanks to Mr Canavan for talking to

:17:01. > :17:05.us at this stage. I wonder how they are doing in Orkney? We were told

:17:06. > :17:10.they were progressing pretty quickly there. David Gray is our

:17:11. > :17:18.correspondent there. Can you give us a progress report on the count

:17:19. > :17:23.there? Certainly. We were here on 2.30 for a probably result. I think

:17:24. > :17:27.that might be earlier now. It could even be within the next 30-40

:17:28. > :17:31.minutes. That is unofficial. We are waiting to see, everybody is going

:17:32. > :17:35.ahead quickly and things are going great. We are hopeful we might be

:17:36. > :17:40.there or thereabouts first. And reading the body language of

:17:41. > :17:45.people in both camps, what grourds sense of who is looking confident

:17:46. > :17:51.and who is not? What is your sense. That would be Orkney would be a

:17:52. > :17:57.really tough nut for the Yes campaign. If they got Orkney it

:17:58. > :18:00.would be a huge boost. I think by the looks of things the Better

:18:01. > :18:05.Together campaign have a spring in their step. They are looking happier

:18:06. > :18:09.than what they were three or four hours ago. I would be surprised, if

:18:10. > :18:13.there was a shock result here, but like I say, until we get the result,

:18:14. > :18:18.we don't know but the Better Together guys are looking happy

:18:19. > :18:24.here. Thank you. 84% turn out as David was saying in Orkney. We may

:18:25. > :18:28.get a result by 1.30 if we are lucky. They may beat

:18:29. > :18:34.Clackmannanshire. Let us look at the count in Glasgow. Such an important

:18:35. > :18:37.count. 500,000 votes just about, up for grabs there. And the

:18:38. > :18:43.intelligence we are getting from Glasgow, is rather interesting. It

:18:44. > :18:49.is to do with some projections of the vote that are based on certain

:18:50. > :18:55.signals. Sarah can tell us more. We have intelligence from the Yes camp.

:18:56. > :19:00.Yes sources are saying that Glasgow may have voted 54% yes, 46% no. The

:19:01. > :19:04.mood is very flat in the Yes camp, so that would be a win for them, but

:19:05. > :19:09.obviously, yes thought they might be do better. These aren't the result,

:19:10. > :19:14.they haven't even finish counting yet. It will be late before we get

:19:15. > :19:18.Glasgow. The body language from the Yes campaigners is they look

:19:19. > :19:23.disappointed by that. Sense of what they are hearing from the rest of

:19:24. > :19:26.the country. Glasgow, we are talking about 500,000 votes, the biggest

:19:27. > :19:30.City. It is hugely important. It would be disappointing to people in

:19:31. > :19:35.the Labour Party, in the Better Together campaign if that city has

:19:36. > :19:38.been lost to Yes, but if the bits and Bobs of rumour and count coming

:19:39. > :19:42.through, that will be compensating for the No campaign for the Better

:19:43. > :19:45.Together, by results in other parts of the country that seem to be

:19:46. > :19:50.better for them. I can't help noticing, we are at the centre of

:19:51. > :19:54.people coming in and out of this building, Huw, for this programme,

:19:55. > :20:00.radio, online, other programme, let me tell you, without people telling

:20:01. > :20:06.you very much. No campaigners are smiling. Yes campaigners are saying

:20:07. > :20:11.let us not comment until the votes are in. I would want Glasgow to have

:20:12. > :20:16.voted No for the majority if possible, but there is a sense in

:20:17. > :20:22.Glasgow of the need for change. I understand that, you know. Urgency

:20:23. > :20:25.of that for Glasgow. My argument would be the best way would be

:20:26. > :20:32.through the election of a Labour Government. I don't think

:20:33. > :20:37.independence would deliver. My experience in campaigning in

:20:38. > :20:42.Glasgow. The Yes campaign threw everything at Glasgowful they knew

:20:43. > :20:46.they had to win it substantially. You are telling us they haven't won

:20:47. > :20:52.it enough. That is part of what is going on Belter together, they are

:20:53. > :20:57.predicting a 62% win for No in East Lothian. We proubl thought East

:20:58. > :21:01.Lothian might vote No by a small margin, that would be a good margin.

:21:02. > :21:07.That is a middle class area to the east of Edinburgh. A lot of workers

:21:08. > :21:11.commuting in. A who are working in the financial industry. So there is

:21:12. > :21:15.a positive mood among Better Together campaigners in East

:21:16. > :21:21.Lothian. Let us pause. That is East Lothian. Let us go to the other side

:21:22. > :21:25.and look at Midlothian. That is also interesting and could be a bit of a

:21:26. > :21:29.strong pointer now as to which way this is going, given the other

:21:30. > :21:33.intelligence. Or reporter is in bonnie rig for us. First of all, who

:21:34. > :21:41.is looking happy there and secondly, what is the progress of the count?

:21:42. > :21:46.Both of them looking happy. Everybody is keeping everything

:21:47. > :21:51.close to their chess. I have spoken to David Hamilton the Labour MP

:21:52. > :21:55.here, he says he is quietly confident but there are a few hours

:21:56. > :21:59.yet to go. It is one of the areas we need to keep a close eye on tonight.

:22:00. > :22:05.The reason is this. When you talk about these social factors that you

:22:06. > :22:11.have mentioned, the social factors which industry experts use to try

:22:12. > :22:16.and predict voting outcome, and those social factors include things

:22:17. > :22:21.like how many areas there are of high levels of deprivation, low

:22:22. > :22:26.household income, wage, ethnicity make up, gender balance, profession,

:22:27. > :22:30.previous voting history, all of these social factors used widely by

:22:31. > :22:35.pollsters to try and predict outcome. Now, the difficulty with

:22:36. > :22:40.Midlothian is if you look at the social factors for this area and

:22:41. > :22:43.compare them with the Scottish figure, the figures sit just above

:22:44. > :22:48.or just below the line as that for Scotland. So they dance very much

:22:49. > :22:54.along the same lines. What does that mean? What you could argue is that

:22:55. > :22:59.Midlothian is a local representation of a national picture. If we

:23:00. > :23:04.extrapolate that further, does that mean how people voted in Midlothian

:23:05. > :23:09.today is indicative of that final result in a few hours time? Well,

:23:10. > :23:15.some would argue it may well be. But there is a big caveat to that, and

:23:16. > :23:19.that caveat is this. We are in uncharted waters here. How much

:23:20. > :23:25.those social factors will come into being, how much you can translate

:23:26. > :23:29.those factors into a final result completely remains to be seen. They

:23:30. > :23:32.are interesting reading and make for exciting reading when pollsters get

:23:33. > :23:37.their hand on them and put their spin on them, be they are not cold,

:23:38. > :23:40.hard facts so we will have to wait for the declaration which is due in

:23:41. > :23:44.a couple of hour, round about 3.30, quarter to four.

:23:45. > :23:47.Half past three, quarter to four. Thank you very much. We look forward

:23:48. > :23:56.to that. Midlothian, the update there. Thank you. I am being told

:23:57. > :24:01.that the turn out in west Dunbartonshire was 89.7%. These are

:24:02. > :24:06.breathtaking figure, if you go back to the 1951 general election, you

:24:07. > :24:12.have got a turn out of I think just over 81%, which is the record for

:24:13. > :24:18.the modern political era. But, you know, these are remarkable. High

:24:19. > :24:22.80s. So, it is looking as if that will be reflected elsewhere too. My

:24:23. > :24:27.audience, our friend in the studio have been patient. I am going to

:24:28. > :24:35.come to Malcolm. Malcolm, where are you from? Glasgow. You voted? Yes.

:24:36. > :24:38.You voted Yes. OK. For Margaret's sake, because she is here for the

:24:39. > :24:44.other side. In a sentence why did you vote yes? It was very much

:24:45. > :24:48.shades of grey, rather than a black-and-white decision. I probably

:24:49. > :24:52.started off in a federalist position, but found the No campaign

:24:53. > :24:56.incredibly patronise, they were trying to scare me. And I would like

:24:57. > :25:01.to think I am more intelligent than that. I would like to think I can

:25:02. > :25:05.see through what was quite patronising at times. Flying the

:25:06. > :25:10.flag over Downing Street, that is going to change my vote! No, it is

:25:11. > :25:18.not. The No campaign was full of that sort of thing and the No

:25:19. > :25:23.campaign offered hope over change. The sort of society I would want to

:25:24. > :25:27.live in. The No campaign were vague, they had two years to put together a

:25:28. > :25:29.package of what the future would be, they have rushed something out at

:25:30. > :25:34.the end because they have started to panic. It is patronising. On that

:25:35. > :25:38.point, we haven't come to this and I was going to bring this up any way,

:25:39. > :25:41.you know, if you are prepared now that, the polls have closed to

:25:42. > :25:45.acknowledge that there has been a huge amount of criticism of the

:25:46. > :25:49.Better Together campaign, and indeed of Scottish Labour's part in it,

:25:50. > :25:57.whether it has been too weak, or unfocussed, do you share any of that

:25:58. > :26:01.criticism now? Kim Jong Il I am someone who is offensive and won't

:26:02. > :26:07.accept criticism. I think that is unfair. We will reflect on this now

:26:08. > :26:12.we are in this period, but I think it is legitimate to say when someone

:26:13. > :26:16.is proposing this shift #230r your country, that you ask questions

:26:17. > :26:19.about it. You say what currency we are going to have. What are the

:26:20. > :26:24.implications for jobs? What is the future of key industries that really

:26:25. > :26:29.matter to our country? And I think sometimes people unfairly categorize

:26:30. > :26:32.that as scaremongering, I don't think that is. I think those are

:26:33. > :26:36.reasonable questions. Sometimes you know, when you are doing that, you

:26:37. > :26:41.may perhaps sound negative, perhaps we should have maybe embraced it in

:26:42. > :26:44.a more positive way. Those are reasonable and fundamental questions

:26:45. > :26:48.to ask. I suppose the other big difference of opinion I would have

:26:49. > :26:51.with you, is seems to me the premise of the Yes campaign was to say

:26:52. > :26:55.Britain is finished, it is broken, we can't get any programme Si social

:26:56. > :27:01.and economic change out of Britain any more. I suppose I don't believe

:27:02. > :27:04.that. I think we have friends and allies in across Britain that can

:27:05. > :27:10.help us, we need to work with them to create the social and economic

:27:11. > :27:13.change I believe in in Scotland. A million jobs in Scotland come from

:27:14. > :27:18.our economic relationship with the rest of Britain. I want to influence

:27:19. > :27:23.that. I want to have some say in that and I want tory distribute

:27:24. > :27:30.resource across Britain. We may just disagree with that. Janet, thank

:27:31. > :27:35.you. You voted, how? No You Li where? In Fife. In Dunfermline. So

:27:36. > :27:43.Gordon Brown territory. Very much so. Why did you vote no? Well, there

:27:44. > :27:47.was two or three areas that concerned me. I think one of the

:27:48. > :27:52.main ones was, it was about the currency. It wasn't clear enough for

:27:53. > :27:59.me, about currency, how it would affect my savings, how it would

:28:00. > :28:02.affect my pension, how it would affect business, I am a

:28:03. > :28:09.self-employed person as well. And something else that troubled me

:28:10. > :28:13.quite a lot, was the way some of the Yes campaign has been carried out. I

:28:14. > :28:38.just didn't like some of the, especially in social media, some of

:28:39. > :28:43.the really aggressive sometimes vet you lick comments --th sides, or did

:28:44. > :28:49.you think... ? No, in my view it was predominantly Yes that was. Tell me

:28:50. > :28:53.about friends and family. Round you. Your sense of how they were weighing

:28:54. > :28:58.up the options, the concerns, did you find they were widely shared or

:28:59. > :29:03.not? Yes, certainly. Speaking to my neighbour this afternoon, just

:29:04. > :29:11.before I came through, she was the same as me. A quiet no voter. Not

:29:12. > :29:20.wanting to raise their head too far. Happy to be a no voter. Thank you

:29:21. > :29:24.for waiting. You, Ben run your own firm exporting bicycles. What is

:29:25. > :29:38.your perspective on independence? I voted yes. My big worry is that the

:29:39. > :29:44.UK is shifting far to the right. The UK will probably leave the UK, which

:29:45. > :29:48.has a big on imports and exports. It puts up transaction cost, shipping

:29:49. > :29:53.Koss. It makes marketing more difficult, and I voted yes because I

:29:54. > :29:59.want to stay part of Europe. I think the UK is going to be dragging us

:30:00. > :30:03.away from that. I know, I can imagine some viewers thinking hang

:30:04. > :30:08.on a second. Scotland's future has got to be in some kind of doubt,

:30:09. > :30:14.given, if it is a yes vote, so that didn't bother you? No, because it is

:30:15. > :30:20.in no-one's interest really, to have Scotland excluded, from the EU.

:30:21. > :30:24.No-one wins. It is no certainty, No. It hasn't been decided yet. If it is

:30:25. > :30:28.yes there is 18 months of negotiations to get us into Europe.

:30:29. > :30:32.There is no way that Scotland would not qualify to be in the EU. So the

:30:33. > :30:44.question is only a technical one of how do you do the paperwork in the

:30:45. > :31:10.meantime? It is not a serious issue. Catalonia is one.

:31:11. > :31:17.Can I ask you which way you voted? I voted Yes. And was that a difficult

:31:18. > :31:23.process, or where you instinctively Yes from the word go? I would have

:31:24. > :31:32.voted Yes at any time in the last 40 years. My attitude is accelerated

:31:33. > :31:38.very considerably about a year ago, and I realised the dangers facing

:31:39. > :31:44.our National Health Service. The National Health Service in Scotland

:31:45. > :31:50.has diverged from that of England considerably over the last 15 years.

:31:51. > :31:53.And since the Tory government, or coalition government passed the

:31:54. > :31:58.health and social care act in England a couple of years ago,

:31:59. > :32:10.privatisation has advanced rapidly until it is now 15% of the NHS in

:32:11. > :32:16.England. There maybe a question about, you know, total funding but

:32:17. > :32:22.it can prioritise, it could even raise income tax. It is more than a

:32:23. > :32:27.question about total funding. Mr Osborne has promised us 25 billion

:32:28. > :32:29.in austerity cuts over the next few years.

:32:30. > :32:36.The Scottish Government has worked hard over the last four year, to

:32:37. > :32:39.protect the NHS. But all of the savings have been made on the

:32:40. > :32:45.housing budget, the education and all the rest of it, the next cuts,

:32:46. > :32:51.the next round of cuts, we are told will be considerably bigger than the

:32:52. > :32:56.last round. Do you accept if it is a No vote, do you accept the view it

:32:57. > :33:01.will be another generation before this question is revisited? Hmm.

:33:02. > :33:06.That is hard to say. I think that is about as hard to say as it is to

:33:07. > :33:10.prodetect the result at the moment. Well -- predict the result at the

:33:11. > :33:14.moment. Thank you for sharing your views. John Doherty. Thank you for

:33:15. > :33:18.coming along. What is your sense of the way the debate has gone, and

:33:19. > :33:24.before that tell us how you voted? I voted no. And was that because you

:33:25. > :33:32.were no from the start or convinced by the arguments? I have been no

:33:33. > :33:35.from the start, because I look at it in simplistic terms, and the Yes

:33:36. > :33:39.campaign was telling us, you know, everything is going to be fine.

:33:40. > :33:44.Don't worry about it, you know, this is how we are going to pay for this.

:33:45. > :33:47.They couldn't tell us anything. They couldn't tell us what currency they

:33:48. > :33:52.were going to be using, who was going to set the interest rates and

:33:53. > :33:55.things like that. I worry about my mortgage, how I am going to bring my

:33:56. > :34:00.family up. I worry about the simple things in life. I am just a work

:34:01. > :34:04.man, you know. I worry about the simple things in life. You weren't

:34:05. > :34:11.getting any answers. You weren't getting any answers for the yes. It

:34:12. > :34:15.was ifs and maybes and butt, we are apparently going to live in some

:34:16. > :34:18.sort of Utopia, where everything is paid for. It would be fantastic. Is

:34:19. > :34:27.that your reading of the Yes campaign? Basically, aye. You know I

:34:28. > :34:31.look at I I am wondering, you know, if, if at any point, there was aner

:34:32. > :34:37.a guemt by the Yes campaign to do with, you know, Scottish people,

:34:38. > :34:40.being in control of their own fate, their own country, finance, where

:34:41. > :34:48.there any of those principles appeal to you? I would love Scotland to be

:34:49. > :34:51.an independent country. But, the discussions that they have been

:34:52. > :34:54.having, we should have been having these things two or three years ago,

:34:55. > :35:01.we shouldn't be waiting until the last minute. We should have had

:35:02. > :35:06.these things discussed and sat down, and you know, thrashed everything

:35:07. > :35:09.out. Were we using the pound? The interest rate could be set by the

:35:10. > :35:13.Bank of England. Is the Queen going to be head of state? We should have

:35:14. > :35:17.been thinking ability these things two or three years ago, we shouldn't

:35:18. > :35:22.have been waiting to the end. I think the campaign, I think it

:35:23. > :35:27.became bitter. The last couple of week, I think it has became quite

:35:28. > :35:32.bitter. We are all Scots here. We shouldn't be bickering among

:35:33. > :35:38.ourselves. Thank you John. Jackie, Jackie, if I interrupt you, we may

:35:39. > :35:42.have a result from Clackmannanshire. I won't be rude. So Jackie

:35:43. > :35:48.Stockdale. I am wondering whether at this point, you can tell us how you

:35:49. > :35:54.voted? I voted yes. And you are from Glasgow. Yes. Which region of

:35:55. > :35:59.Glasgow? Gorbals. What was your sense of the campaign, and did you

:36:00. > :36:04.start with an open mind or were you knowing you were yes from the start?

:36:05. > :36:09.I was instinctively for independence. My original thought

:36:10. > :36:13.before we realised we weren't going to have the Devo Max option that was

:36:14. > :36:18.a better approach, because it was more gradual. Given a choice between

:36:19. > :36:22.the two I would go for independence. So that is basically from the start.

:36:23. > :36:27.Do you agree the view the campaign got nasty at times, and if you do,

:36:28. > :36:33.whose fault with that? To be honest, in a situation like this it is real

:36:34. > :36:38.didifficult to quantify exactly who was the worst because everyone's

:36:39. > :36:42.experiences were the same. As strongly as this lady's experiences

:36:43. > :36:46.were, the Yes campaign were aggressive, my experience of the Yes

:36:47. > :36:54.campaign, that it was not aggressive. Me, and my friends, for

:36:55. > :37:00.instance, last Saturday, went up to travelled up on a rickshaw, my kids

:37:01. > :37:05.were getting lifted on and off and we were singing, we were shaking

:37:06. > :37:09.hands with No supporter, last night the guy on the bike, the wonderful

:37:10. > :37:14.guy from the No campaign who raises loads of money for the hospital, we

:37:15. > :37:17.were, you know, trying to get our photographs taken with him, so my

:37:18. > :37:22.experience it hasn't been negative at but at the end of the day

:37:23. > :37:26.politics is like that, you will have those pockets on either side. To try

:37:27. > :37:28.and quantify it and accuse one side of being more aggressive than the

:37:29. > :37:34.other simply isn't fair on either side. Do you think there is some

:37:35. > :37:38.basis for the fear that some people will be very disappointed with the

:37:39. > :37:42.outcome? Which ever side it is. That could raise questions about how

:37:43. > :37:46.people get on in future. Do you think those fears are misplaced?

:37:47. > :37:50.There is division in politics, that is a reality. People are getting

:37:51. > :37:53.introduced to politics now and unfortunately that the reality of

:37:54. > :37:57.politics, is that people are divided. Something else happens and

:37:58. > :38:01.you move on. At the end of the day. So I think to try and inflate that

:38:02. > :38:06.into something that it isn't, largely through the media, I mean I

:38:07. > :38:10.have seen, I saw something in the Daily Mail saying something about

:38:11. > :38:14.they were having to hire ex that police to man the polling station.

:38:15. > :38:17.What an impression there must be of us down south if that is what people

:38:18. > :38:24.think. It was nothing like that. Really. It is God to end on a

:38:25. > :38:27.positive note and say no, it has been exemplary. Can I thank you all

:38:28. > :38:35.very much. You have done a long shift. It is 1.20. So I am grateful.

:38:36. > :38:38.If we let you go. There maybe something stronger than a her ball

:38:39. > :38:42.tea waiting for you, so thank you very much. We hope that whatever

:38:43. > :38:47.your view, you are content with the result. Thank you for joining us.

:38:48. > :38:55.Margaret, interesting again, just, you know, from all of them, a sense

:38:56. > :38:59.of real engagement and again, a very sophisticated take on politics. It's

:39:00. > :39:02.a great thing to see. Yes, I was tempted to answer back on some of

:39:03. > :39:06.the issue, I thought no, the campaign is over. You voted. You can

:39:07. > :39:11.relax a bit. I would disagree with some of it. I would say there is one

:39:12. > :39:15.thing. I think you have a clear argument. The last lady who spoke,

:39:16. > :39:20.but there is a sense people feel we are divided. And we have to work

:39:21. > :39:23.very very hard, I think, to pull things together. That came up on the

:39:24. > :39:27.doorsteps a lot. We will have to find our common ground, we will have

:39:28. > :39:32.to reach out, to those of us who voted differently and I think, you

:39:33. > :39:36.know, the political class need to show some leadership. When Scotland

:39:37. > :39:39.has decided whatever it has decided, we respect that decision have to

:39:40. > :39:43.make our country a better place, because it is action, we have had a

:39:44. > :39:49.long conversation about this, we have made a decision, now we is that

:39:50. > :39:53.right having to do something to make it a better place.

:39:54. > :40:05.Let's have a look at Clackmannanshire. It is 1.20. Just

:40:06. > :40:10.set this in context for us. What will be significant that? We will

:40:11. > :40:16.expect to do quite well here, I think. It is an area with some

:40:17. > :40:21.tradition of voting SNP. It is the kind of place where traditional

:40:22. > :40:30.Labour voters might have been tempted to the Yes side. It may be

:40:31. > :40:40.in places like Clackmannanshire. But there is also already a bedrock of

:40:41. > :40:44.SNP support there. Labour MP John McDonald says tonight that now the

:40:45. > :40:53.polls are closed, never again should Labour go in with the Tories in a

:40:54. > :40:57.campaign coalition. This was at times and uncomfortable coalition.

:40:58. > :41:05.It allowed Yes Scotland to say that they are all in bed with the Tories.

:41:06. > :41:10.Try to hang some unpopular Tory policies around some Labour

:41:11. > :41:17.politicians' necks. I am bound to ask you. I think that misunderstands

:41:18. > :41:21.exactly what was happening. Every time someone said to me, why you

:41:22. > :41:34.campaigning alongside the Tories, I used to think, why are you

:41:35. > :41:40.campaigning alongside Brian Souter? He is not quite as notorious as

:41:41. > :41:44.David Cameron and George Osborne. I think he is quite a controversial

:41:45. > :41:51.character for Scotland. I think we had such a winery choice, you had a

:41:52. > :42:02.very broad coalition on one side and a very broad coalition on the other.

:42:03. > :42:08.What you allowed your opponents to do is to represent a foreign place,

:42:09. > :42:12.Westminster, some say they were UK politicians or represent as other

:42:13. > :42:16.party which historically has been so powerful in Scotland, the Labour

:42:17. > :42:22.Party. I heard them called the three older Tony and is, as if these three

:42:23. > :42:27.leaders of the three main parties were somehow identical, and that

:42:28. > :42:32.must've been hugely damaging. I think they tried to do that. Did you

:42:33. > :42:37.look at the opinion poll trust ratings comparing David Cameron and

:42:38. > :42:41.Ed Miliband? In Scotland, you would think that the leader of the UK

:42:42. > :42:45.Labour Party would have rather higher trust ratings than the leader

:42:46. > :42:55.of the UK Conservative Party, but not the case. In two opinion polls

:42:56. > :43:02.in this election, we saw 21%... There is an issue there, isn't

:43:03. > :43:12.there? I think you will find a lot more support for UK leadership in

:43:13. > :43:19.2015 for a Labour government if the vote is No tonight. Some people, and

:43:20. > :43:24.I think maybe some of your people here, one of the things they said

:43:25. > :43:27.was, we want Labour back in power, and they are tempted to vote yes

:43:28. > :43:35.because they want Labour back in power in Scotland. I am just go into

:43:36. > :43:41.talk about something that has come in, this turnout. Dundee, where the

:43:42. > :43:48.SNP is very strong, big hopes that of an extremely strong performance

:43:49. > :43:54.by the Yes campaign, 79%. If this was a normal election night, 79%

:43:55. > :43:58.would be remarkable. But in the context of this remarkable

:43:59. > :44:04.referendum, this is much lower, I think 10% lower than

:44:05. > :44:12.Clackmannanshire. Alex Salmond described an day as Scotland's Yes

:44:13. > :44:16.city. That turnout doesn't tell us that Dundee isn't going to vote that

:44:17. > :44:23.way, but it does tell us that that huge enthusiasm to get registered to

:44:24. > :44:30.vote, which we assumed was coming from the Yes campaign, they may have

:44:31. > :44:35.been wrong about that. The quiet Noes may be turning out in greater

:44:36. > :44:42.force in some areas of the country. Let's go to Clackmannanshire.

:44:43. > :44:55.Ladies and gentlemen, we are ready to declare. I, Helene MacPherson,

:44:56. > :45:02.counting officer at the Scottish independence referendum hereby

:45:03. > :45:08.certify and declare the total number of ballot papers counted in the

:45:09. > :45:16.referendum in the Clackmannanshire area is 35,410. The turnout is

:45:17. > :45:24.88.6%. The total number of votes cast in relation to each answer to

:45:25. > :45:35.the referendum question is as follows:Yes, 16,350. No, 19,000...

:45:36. > :45:41.CHEERING 19,036. Rejected papers, 24. The

:45:42. > :45:48.reasons for rejection are as follows. Want of an official Mark,

:45:49. > :45:53.zero. Voting in favour of both answers, seven. Writing or mark by

:45:54. > :46:01.which voters... Our first vote in this referendum,

:46:02. > :46:09.and it is the smallest local authority, Clackmannanshire. They

:46:10. > :46:18.have voted No. 19,000 votes for the No campaign, 16,350 for the Yes

:46:19. > :46:35.campaign. A huge turnout of 89%. And the percentage there, 54% voting No,

:46:36. > :46:41.46% voting Yes. Sarah, what do we make of that? That is a surprise, I

:46:42. > :46:48.would say. No campaigners will be very cheered by that. Predictions

:46:49. > :46:56.were that Clackmannanshire was more likely to be a yes. A number of

:46:57. > :47:00.people there, it was felt, might feel disenfranchised or

:47:01. > :47:02.short-changed by the Westerners to government, but they haven't.

:47:03. > :47:06.Clackmannanshire has voted to stay part of the union, and I think that

:47:07. > :47:10.will bring a lot of cheer to the No campaign. Look what happened at the

:47:11. > :47:21.Better Together headquarters when they heard that.

:47:22. > :47:29.The Better Together headquarters responding to the first result from

:47:30. > :47:32.Clackmannanshire. This is an historic moment, the first

:47:33. > :47:37.declaration, and it is quite an emotional moment. We are beginning

:47:38. > :47:45.to decide on this great event in our history. This is an important

:47:46. > :47:50.result. The Yes campaign should have expect it to do better than that,

:47:51. > :47:59.and I think the No campaign has done unexpectedly well. It is one result.

:48:00. > :48:01.There are 31 to go. We are going to be cautious, but do you read

:48:02. > :48:07.anything more into that? Would you say that that tells you, 12% margin

:48:08. > :48:11.for Clackmannanshire for your campaign, does that lead you to

:48:12. > :48:17.believe you are in a strong position? I think it is indicative

:48:18. > :48:23.of perhaps a better night than I might otherwise have hoped for, but

:48:24. > :48:30.I don't like to be superstitious. Professor John Curtice, our resident

:48:31. > :48:39.expert, is with our team of experts on the upper level here at

:48:40. > :48:47.Broadcasting House in Glasgow. It is an 8% lead for the No side, not 12.

:48:48. > :48:53.A small correction. Two things come out of this. The first is, a few

:48:54. > :49:00.weeks ago, Yes would have been quite pleased with 46%. I don't think that

:49:01. > :49:05.that contradicts the outcome of opinion polls, and we are looking at

:49:06. > :49:08.quite a tight race. But I think Sarah is correct, this is probably

:49:09. > :49:14.somewhere one would have expected the Yes side to do better than the

:49:15. > :49:19.average across Scotland as a whole. They will be disappointed at only

:49:20. > :49:23.getting 46% of the vote. But as we have also emphasised, this is a

:49:24. > :49:26.relatively small part of Scotland. It is not at the end of the day

:49:27. > :49:32.going to weigh a great deal of the overall result. It could be

:49:33. > :49:41.counterbalanced by better results for Yes in large authorities. We

:49:42. > :49:44.heard earlier some very confident noises from Better Together in

:49:45. > :49:51.Glasgow. Do they tally with what you may have been hearing? As I

:49:52. > :50:02.understand it, it is thought that the Yes side are heading Glasgow. --

:50:03. > :50:07.ahead in Glasgow. It is not the result that they would be hoping for

:50:08. > :50:14.if indeed they were hoping for victory across Scotland. But I think

:50:15. > :50:19.it could just mean that this is a relatively tight referendum rather

:50:20. > :50:25.than a referendum that the No campaign are definitely going to

:50:26. > :50:31.win. And I just apologise, even with my maths I should be able to work

:50:32. > :50:43.out that that is 8% rather than 12%. Good of John to pick me up on it.

:50:44. > :50:45.Nick. Interestingly, if you are used to watching UK general elections,

:50:46. > :50:55.you have to keep reminding yourself of this. The areas we are hearing

:50:56. > :51:00.and not identical in size. The other obvious thing to remember, probably

:51:01. > :51:03.familiar to Scottish viewers but not to every body else, every vote

:51:04. > :51:08.counts equally. It is not like you are elected and MP for

:51:09. > :51:15.Clackmannanshire, and that one is equal to one for someone else, each

:51:16. > :51:28.vote is counted up. But it is a sign, and the reason you are seeing

:51:29. > :51:33.smiles on No faces. A few months ago they would have said, Yes will get

:51:34. > :51:43.nowhere near this figure, and they are only smiling now out of pure

:51:44. > :51:47.relief. They briefly thought, we are going to lose. Something nobody

:51:48. > :51:52.would have thought six months, 12 months ago. And that raises an

:51:53. > :52:01.interesting question about whether or not people have changed their

:52:02. > :52:09.minds in recent weeks when they saw David Cameron arriving in a blaze of

:52:10. > :52:13.fury making promises about strict timing is for devolution of powers.

:52:14. > :52:17.We don't know whether that succeeded. If it did, is it because

:52:18. > :52:22.people change their minds in the last few minutes, or was it never as

:52:23. > :52:28.close as they feared? There was a moment when it seemed very close

:52:29. > :52:35.indeed. Leslie Ruddock is with us, broadcaster and journalist. You're

:52:36. > :52:39.reading so far? This is a tiny group we have heard from Clackmannanshire,

:52:40. > :52:45.it is hard to know because we haven't had a referendum for a very

:52:46. > :52:48.long time. It is absolutely true that people have been shovelling

:52:49. > :52:56.backwards and forwards between Yes No to you would think a baffling

:52:57. > :53:02.degree if you thought that voters tended to normally be predictable.

:53:03. > :53:09.You would expect people to roughly adhere to what they had previously

:53:10. > :53:12.tended to vote in a normal election, but people have been crossing all

:53:13. > :53:17.sorts of lines, so it is very hard to know. I spent the day at a Yes

:53:18. > :53:22.shop in Edinburgh, and the press was constantly busy, but then the Yes

:53:23. > :53:27.side has been much more voluble and persuasive, because it has had to

:53:28. > :53:35.be. But that doesn't necessarily add up to an advantage polls. I know

:53:36. > :53:39.that we should be careful about drawing lots of lessons, but would

:53:40. > :53:47.you have expected the Yes campaign to have won there? What is your

:53:48. > :53:52.sense of that result? It sounds a bit petty, but I am not within the

:53:53. > :53:57.political firmament of all of this. And that is a very important part of

:53:58. > :54:00.the Yes campaign. It became a movement somewhere along the line,

:54:01. > :54:17.and it is larger now than just BS in P. Most of us -- than just the SNP.

:54:18. > :54:25.Most people who have been involved in this, people who have just come

:54:26. > :54:31.into this for the first time, I looking at it and sensing the vibe

:54:32. > :54:41.that they have had for the last few days. Peter Johnson, the leader of

:54:42. > :54:44.the SNP have just accepted that they have lost in West Lothian. That is

:54:45. > :54:47.according to him, we don't have the numbers yet, that he is conceding

:54:48. > :54:56.defeat and describing it as disappointing. You made your point

:54:57. > :55:02.about the place in the firmament, but would this be a disappointing

:55:03. > :55:07.outcome? West Lothian would be disappointing, because Fiona Hyslop,

:55:08. > :55:14.the Education Secretary, I would imagine she would have thought that

:55:15. > :55:16.that would go a different way. West Lothian, the birthplace of Alex

:55:17. > :55:30.Salmond and Mary Queen of Scots, Scotty from Star Trek. That is a

:55:31. > :55:37.strong SNP area. If they have lost that, they would be disappointed.

:55:38. > :55:44.There are trends beginning to be seen here, I think. We can see some

:55:45. > :55:52.of the arguments about how the polls of shifted in the last few days, and

:55:53. > :55:55.I think we are going to see if these things are indicating the way they

:55:56. > :56:01.are, I would've thought the Yes campaign would need to make gains in

:56:02. > :56:04.order to win this. But I'm not presumptuous, and other parts of the

:56:05. > :56:10.country could be very different. It is not like a general election.

:56:11. > :56:20.Do you think the tide has turned? Was there a quiet No all along? I

:56:21. > :56:25.think, I think Gordon Brown has been round the campaign longer than you

:56:26. > :56:30.have implied. I think he has had an impact. He has been front and

:56:31. > :56:33.centre, and he certainly had not been that way in the moneys

:56:34. > :56:39.previous. I felt he was there. I take that point. He had a remarkable

:56:40. > :56:43.impact on the campaign. I #450erd his speech at the last rally. Said

:56:44. > :56:49.to some of the younger people. That is a speech you will quote. You will

:56:50. > :56:54.say you were here to hear that. Let us see what is going on in Orkney. I

:56:55. > :57:02.want a peep at the image, there is no-one on stage. I am told, however,

:57:03. > :57:06.that Orkney is, well, in that famous word on election nights imminent. If

:57:07. > :57:11.we get something from Orkney we will be back right away. Let us talk more

:57:12. > :57:18.about the Clackmannanshire result. We will join Andrew March at ingle

:57:19. > :57:23.son. Tell us more about the impact of that verdict. Ingliston.

:57:24. > :57:28.You said Clackmannanshire was a small, it is not small, it is tiny.

:57:29. > :57:33.However, I think we are begins to see the narrative of the evening

:57:34. > :57:38.unfold. Clackmannanshire is somewhere that Yes campaign ought to

:57:39. > :57:42.have won, given its SNP background, given it relative deprivation, given

:57:43. > :57:47.its history. I would have expected them to vote yes and they haven't.

:57:48. > :57:51.What Nick was saying as well, about the central belt of Scotland is

:57:52. > :57:54.important these are areas where Labour has become used to the SNP

:57:55. > :57:58.stealing the dinner off their table, it doesn't seem to be going that

:57:59. > :58:03.way. I would like to take issue with one point. I am not sure with the

:58:04. > :58:09.greatest of respect to Gordon Brown, it is not about him in the final

:58:10. > :58:12.days. It has been dominated by that YouGov poll which sent shockwaves

:58:13. > :58:15.across the unionist community in Scotland. Horrified people.

:58:16. > :58:22.Electrified lots of people into voting and some of the high turn

:58:23. > :58:29.outs are unionists turning out. We assumed a high turn out you would be

:58:30. > :58:36.good for the Yes vote but it is good for the No vote as well. There is an

:58:37. > :58:39.old saying in journalism is most interesting poll is the wrongest

:58:40. > :58:43.poll. It is the one that is out of line with other, that poll that

:58:44. > :58:47.showed Yes ahead. There was one poll in the entirety of two years of

:58:48. > :58:52.campaigning showed Yes ahead. Could have been just wrong. It might not

:58:53. > :58:56.be that anything changed but it might have been wrong. It was not

:58:57. > :59:00.helpful to the Yes campaign. They needed it to creep up on people.

:59:01. > :59:04.What they didn't need is a mighty great shockwave which went out not

:59:05. > :59:09.just oh this country but the whole of the United Kingdom, leaders came

:59:10. > :59:13.up from London, campaigners got their act together. There was an

:59:14. > :59:18.attempt to have a timetable on what was said about the alternative offer

:59:19. > :59:23.that would be made in the event of a No vote to the Scottish Parliament.

:59:24. > :59:29.All because of the that no. On the outcome so far, to unpick a little

:59:30. > :59:32.more of the figure, let us join Jeremy again. Let us look at the

:59:33. > :59:36.score board and see one result we have got so far which is

:59:37. > :59:42.Clackmannanshire, which you have been talking about. No vote 54%.

:59:43. > :59:45.Come and look at the map and work out where Clackmannanshire is on the

:59:46. > :59:49.map of Scotland. If you can't place it for any reason. Let us just, just

:59:50. > :59:54.as you can see just flashing there, in the red, just above Edinburgh.

:59:55. > :59:57.Come this way and we will have a look at some of the information

:59:58. > :00:03.about Clackmannanshire. Starting with the actual result. As you can

:00:04. > :00:12.see, as Andrew was saying not small but tiny council. 19 odd thousand

:00:13. > :00:17.Noes there and the Yeses behind, with 16,000. So what extent was that

:00:18. > :00:23.a surprise, or out of line? Leslie said in the studio it is very

:00:24. > :00:28.difficult to parse all the factors. Let us look at Clackmannanshire and

:00:29. > :00:32.see where it is in the 2014 European election, here we have 2014 European

:00:33. > :00:38.election result, you can see the SNP in Clackmannanshire was the largest

:00:39. > :00:42.party in that result. I will show you here the figures we had just

:00:43. > :00:47.earlier this year, you can see how the parties were arranged in the

:00:48. > :00:52.local elections. SNP percentage you could see 33%. Labour just behind,

:00:53. > :00:55.on 31, so Labour, if Labour's support base was galvanised by

:00:56. > :01:00.Gordon Brown and so on in the last week, there is a lot of votes they

:01:01. > :01:03.can call on. Way behind 13% Conservative, 10% UKIP, the greens

:01:04. > :01:07.and the Liberal Democrats, that was the result in the 2014 European

:01:08. > :01:10.elections in Clackmannanshire. So let us bring up on this, if we can,

:01:11. > :01:16.the European elections results again. We were thinking weren't we,

:01:17. > :01:21.that the councils coloured #ye8 low, in early 2014 -- yellow, maybe they

:01:22. > :01:25.were most inclined to go yes, to independence, but they haven't. This

:01:26. > :01:31.Clackmannanshire hasn't, so far as we can see at this stage. Councils

:01:32. > :01:35.by social grade. We showed you this earlier, this was another indicator

:01:36. > :01:41.because of the correlation between poorer voters and people voting yes.

:01:42. > :01:48.The thought if you have more manual worker, people on benefit, you have

:01:49. > :01:53.more Yes votes. These are the ones with most Ds and Es.

:01:54. > :01:58.Clackmannanshire there. So on that edgester of poorer voters you would

:01:59. > :02:05.expect to see Clackmannanshire voting yes. -- register. I will show

:02:06. > :02:08.you a graph showing the measures of the social break down if you like in

:02:09. > :02:13.this tiny council. It is one of the reasons it has come in so early, so

:02:14. > :02:18.relatively fewer votes being counted. As and Bs professional

:02:19. > :02:21.class, the purple column is Clackmannanshire, 16%. Below the

:02:22. > :02:28.Scottish average which is the blue column. You go to C 1 and C 2s and

:02:29. > :02:31.this is maybe middle, middle management or working class. Middle

:02:32. > :02:36.class people, more so in the middle area. Socially. Still lagging behind

:02:37. > :02:41.the rest of Scotland. Then you see here in the Ds and Es we are talking

:02:42. > :02:44.about. Poorer voter, Clackmannanshire, 32%, a little way

:02:45. > :02:50.ahead of the Scottish average. To illustrate the fact yes, there are

:02:51. > :02:54.poorer voters in Clackmannanshire, and it has gone No, and that is

:02:55. > :02:59.rather against what we thought we would see, which was a correlation

:03:00. > :03:07.between lower social economic groups and a yes vote. Huw, back to you.

:03:08. > :03:13.Thank you. Some incredible turn out figure, Stirling, 90%. Never seen

:03:14. > :03:24.anything like it. East Renfrewshire is even higher. 90.5%. Stirling.

:03:25. > :03:28.90.1 and East Renfrewshire at 9.05%. They are remarkable figure, and

:03:29. > :03:32.again it is interesting to pick up from Andrew March's point, Nick can

:03:33. > :03:37.come in on this too. What this remarkable turn out might reflect is

:03:38. > :03:41.something that lots, possibly some of pollsters hadn't factored in. Who

:03:42. > :03:46.is part of this big turn out? It is people who are voting possibly for

:03:47. > :03:53.the union. The Better Together campaign got a huge jolt but so did

:03:54. > :03:59.No voters, you heard conversations people saying where do I get a

:04:00. > :04:04.poster, how do I join in, social media activity, what a jolt of

:04:05. > :04:09.electricity when they got that poll. You could see the Yes campaign were

:04:10. > :04:12.uncomfortable. They liked being the underdog, they like the idea they

:04:13. > :04:16.had to push to get their vote out. They were struggling to make some

:04:17. > :04:19.kind of revolutionary change happen. They were very uncomfortable for

:04:20. > :04:24.that brief moment when it looked like they were in the ascendancy. It

:04:25. > :04:28.is interesting, it maybe John can tell us more. In the pattern of turn

:04:29. > :04:34.out it isn't high in Yes areas or low in Yes areas so Dundee you

:04:35. > :04:38.mentioned earlier, surprisingly, I mean, low, high in normal terms but

:04:39. > :04:42.lower than the other. But other Yes areas in the sense of places

:04:43. > :04:46.expected to be Yes have very high turn out, hiring than some of the No

:04:47. > :04:50.expected areas, at the moment there isn't a consistent pattern that

:04:51. > :04:56.would allow us to read into the idea that the extra turn out is all No

:04:57. > :04:59.voters. Leslie? Well, I mean I hear the narrative and yet I hear

:05:00. > :05:05.something missing from it, because as far as I am concerned the last

:05:06. > :05:09.two weeks after that 51% poll produced the most extraordinary

:05:10. > :05:13.series of threats and shaking the world type pronouncements. We had

:05:14. > :05:17.everything here, from banks moving to jobs going for to food prices

:05:18. > :05:20.rising, the Loch Ness monster was reported to have seen south of the

:05:21. > :05:24.border, you know, you would need to have been a pretty calm person not

:05:25. > :05:28.to have been rattled by that. While I hear everything you are saying,

:05:29. > :05:32.the movements of Gordon Brown and the kind of potential ricochet from

:05:33. > :05:37.that, the galvanising of the vote and so on, it was certainly the case

:05:38. > :05:41.that people suddenly felt threatened by the British establishment. And

:05:42. > :05:46.that is quite a scary thing to behold n the way we did, in those

:05:47. > :05:50.two weeks. We were never sure what effect that was going to have,

:05:51. > :05:54.because there was a huge movement. So many big businesses and banks

:05:55. > :05:58.coming out. So doom laden were the threats and Alex Salmond said they

:05:59. > :06:01.are throwing most of the living room. You did wonder if Scots were

:06:02. > :06:05.going to step back and say happening on, if you are telling us we can't

:06:06. > :06:09.do it we might do it to prove you wrong. This is what the difficulty

:06:10. > :06:14.was, you were all saying this, there was one supermarket. It turned into

:06:15. > :06:17.supermarkets plush ram. You could have talked to Morrisons who...

:06:18. > :06:23.There were five big banks who said... What I am trying to do is

:06:24. > :06:26.have accuracy, because it started to get swept up into everybody is going

:06:27. > :06:30.to be out of here. That was never what was the truth in that two week,

:06:31. > :06:36.but it was easily made to sound it. Margaret? I don't agree. First I

:06:37. > :06:43.think the Yes campaign moved to dismiss the voices, so swiftly, as

:06:44. > :06:46.if they lumped them into the scaremongering political motivated

:06:47. > :06:51.voices, trying to shift the vote. I don't think it was as simple as

:06:52. > :06:56.that. These were serious economic voices, telling truths to people. I

:06:57. > :07:00.think the fact the Yes campaign couldn't answer/that was serious, I

:07:01. > :07:07.was in my constituency in the east end of Glasgow. I had people toy say

:07:08. > :07:13.to me about the share price falling, the Friday it fell, and people were

:07:14. > :07:18.saying "That is worrying, something's happening here." It is

:07:19. > :07:23.not just a political campaign, it is how the market responds. People did

:07:24. > :07:27.feel the financial implications of voting for independence, they were

:07:28. > :07:33.very serious in their live, I think the failure of the Yes campaign, if

:07:34. > :07:35.it is to be that, if it is to be that, they never came to terms with

:07:36. > :07:40.the fact they didn't have the economic plan and that worked for

:07:41. > :07:44.people. I think that is partly what galvanised the No vote. People were

:07:45. > :07:48.saying, you know our jobs, our futures could be in jeopardy,

:07:49. > :07:52.because that was fundamentally not addressed by the Yes campaign. They

:07:53. > :07:56.were, as Gordon Brown said, taking us into an economic mine field with

:07:57. > :08:02.an economic trap door, that is not what people like. At least the yes

:08:03. > :08:07.side of it. The SNP have a plan. I would have thought part of the

:08:08. > :08:12.market jitter was because we know the UK Government has done no

:08:13. > :08:15.planning whatsoever. The minute we got a 51% vote it was obvious there

:08:16. > :08:19.could be an independent Scotland. People woke up to that. You woke up

:08:20. > :08:25.to the fact the UK Government hadn't prepared for it. We had no pay

:08:26. > :08:29.negotiations in it. You had a sticky mess looming. I would suggest that

:08:30. > :08:36.is as much as the mechanics of what was happening. Let us pause there

:08:37. > :08:41.and Margaret, you may be leaving us. If you do, we thank you for coming.

:08:42. > :08:47.Lesley is staying us with. We are going to Westminster. Let us join

:08:48. > :08:53.Andrew kneel again. -- Andrew Neil again. I have got

:08:54. > :08:58.Polly Toynbee and Danny with me. Danny, if it is a No vote. Mr

:08:59. > :09:04.Miliband and Cameron have to deliver on their promise of more Home Rule

:09:05. > :09:07.for Scotland. Mr Cameron has to deal with backbenchers and Cabinet

:09:08. > :09:12.Ministers who are unhappy if he does that in isolation, he has to say

:09:13. > :09:15.something for England as well. There are policy problems but I don't

:09:16. > :09:19.think there is a political problem. So the policy problem is not the

:09:20. > :09:23.English Parliament or English MPs it is the question of who the executive

:09:24. > :09:27.is, who... Who the English executive is. Yes, that is a serious policy

:09:28. > :09:32.problem. The political problem will be turn out to be more the money. I

:09:33. > :09:36.think the Conservative Party will go round English votes for English

:09:37. > :09:41.laws. David Cameron will probably offer them that. I don't think he

:09:42. > :09:46.will have a problem. That is not an English executive. That is what I am

:09:47. > :09:51.say, he will have a policy problem, as to how is, as to once he has

:09:52. > :09:56.created the idea of English votes for English laws, there is a policy

:09:57. > :10:00.problem for everybody, as to who takes the executive office in

:10:01. > :10:04.England and he will have... Is this what we are talking about before, a

:10:05. > :10:07.separate government for England? If you have English votes for English

:10:08. > :10:13.law, it creates an interesting policy problem. If there is a Labour

:10:14. > :10:14.Government in the United Kingdom, but an English majority in England,

:10:15. > :10:35.who runs the NHS in England? Who speaks for England? That is

:10:36. > :10:44.becoming the issue south of the border. Where does that leave Ed

:10:45. > :10:49.Miliband. It makes it far more likely that Labour can win the next

:10:50. > :10:53.election if Scotland does not become independent, so that will be the

:10:54. > :10:56.overwhelming sense for the Tories. It is quite plain that what we need

:10:57. > :11:03.is a constitutional convention where these things can be hammered out. We

:11:04. > :11:08.need to have a proper discussion about all of these things. Pull on

:11:09. > :11:13.one bit of thread, and the whole what fun ties. That there is no way

:11:14. > :11:18.if you do that you will make Gordon Brown's timetable. The unhappiness

:11:19. > :11:28.on the Tory backbenches about how much was given away without any

:11:29. > :11:32.consultation about what that would mean for the rest of the UK. I am

:11:33. > :11:40.told that the Prime Minister might make a statement as early as seven

:11:41. > :11:49.o'clock in the morning, not only about the result but about what it

:11:50. > :12:01.will mean for the rest of the UK. They are also cross about, not about

:12:02. > :12:06.Scotland getting extra tax powers, but the end of the Barnett formula.

:12:07. > :12:12.Mr Cameron, through Mr Brown, has promised the extra tax powers and

:12:13. > :12:14.the Barnett formula. I think the extra tax powers was something that

:12:15. > :12:17.the Conservative policy and the whole Better Together campaign was

:12:18. > :12:21.talking about for months. You are correct in saying that the two

:12:22. > :12:25.things whether No camp was accused of panicking, which were the

:12:26. > :12:28.Scottish financial settlement, and the question of the timetable, and

:12:29. > :12:38.both of those are very tricky problems. These are the questions.

:12:39. > :12:43.No, they are not. It is the question of fundamental powers, and I think

:12:44. > :12:49.he has less problems on that front. George Osborne has a real problem.

:12:50. > :12:53.If the Barnett formula, which gives the Scots 19% more per capita, the

:12:54. > :12:59.Welsh will complain, the English will complain. The North of England.

:13:00. > :13:05.But what has happened is we have broken the bounds of Osborne's

:13:06. > :13:09.austerity. If Scotland are allowed to break the binds with their own

:13:10. > :13:14.tax and spending, and we will say, does that mean we have to have less

:13:15. > :13:18.because we have to stay within this tight straitjacket that George

:13:19. > :13:23.Osborne has laid out? If that is the case, that is not good to be

:13:24. > :13:26.popular. It will be a fundamental political problem for the Labour

:13:27. > :13:37.Party. How will they win majorities in England to govern England? How

:13:38. > :13:41.does Labour answer that? If you can only get your English manifesto

:13:42. > :13:46.through one English votes, that is a problem for potential Ed Miliband

:13:47. > :13:52.government. Which could get into power because of Scottish votes.

:13:53. > :13:58.Every previous time that Labour has won an election, it has won in

:13:59. > :14:06.England as well, mostly. It might well not happen. They might well win

:14:07. > :14:09.right out. That if it doesn't, but if you look at health and

:14:10. > :14:14.education, there are a lot of grey areas around, if it is about how

:14:15. > :14:19.much money goes into those, that is also a Scottish question, too. The

:14:20. > :14:25.sum of money that is going, when you look at the block grant, for health,

:14:26. > :14:36.education, notionally. We have had two Labour MPs, Mr denim and Ms

:14:37. > :14:44.Abbott, saying that if it is good enough for Scotland, it is good

:14:45. > :14:58.enough for England. Where does that leave Labour? The fear was that all

:14:59. > :15:04.of these Labour votes would go for Yes, but if Better Together... It is

:15:05. > :15:11.Gordon Brown who did it, not Ed Miliband! There is no evidence for

:15:12. > :15:22.that. The idea that there is a social democratic across the border

:15:23. > :15:27.of togetherness... It is just maths. Back to Scotland Decides.

:15:28. > :15:36.Thank you very much, Andrew. Let's have a tally. It really involves

:15:37. > :15:40.just one result, actually. Here we are at the headquarters of BBC

:15:41. > :15:52.Scotland in Glasgow, and the result in from Clackmannanshire, 16,350 to

:15:53. > :15:59.Yes, and 19,036 to No. But we have more turnouts for you, and they vary

:16:00. > :16:03.quite a bit. 75% in Glasgow, which again is on the low side given the

:16:04. > :16:10.figures that we were reporting elsewhere. Aberdeen at around 80%.

:16:11. > :16:19.And East Dunbartonshire now breaks the record we have this evening at

:16:20. > :16:26.91%. So, varying from 75% to 91%. We are thinking that the average

:16:27. > :16:30.national turnout for all of Scotland is around 85%. Don't hold me to

:16:31. > :16:35.that. That is the calculation we are making at the moment. We can affirm

:16:36. > :16:40.that other little later. It is still a remarkable reflection on where we

:16:41. > :16:43.are. Michael Forsyth is with us, former Secretary of State for

:16:44. > :16:48.Scotland. You were making the point, to be fair, when you were fighting

:16:49. > :16:54.elections for Westminster, 80% turnouts were not unusual. Stirling

:16:55. > :16:59.used to get 83%, but it was a close run fight, and every vote counted.

:17:00. > :17:04.And that is true here. What we have seen latterly since I left politics

:17:05. > :17:08.is the politicians concentrate on the marginal seats, the pollsters

:17:09. > :17:12.tell them to concentrate on specific dividing issues, and the voters

:17:13. > :17:16.think, what is the point? So the turnout has fallen. In this

:17:17. > :17:21.campaign, every body knows that their vote really matters, and the

:17:22. > :17:34.division between yes and no is pretty clear. So it has been very

:17:35. > :17:38.exciting. There is a phrase from burns, words have power, the gift to

:17:39. > :17:43.give us to see ourselves as others see us. The one thing that came out

:17:44. > :17:49.on the doorsteps was the utter cynicism there is about politics and

:17:50. > :17:55.politicians, and the lack of trust, and that needs to be repaired. And

:17:56. > :17:59.actually, this campaign, which ever way the results terms, is an

:18:00. > :18:02.opportunity for people to think very carefully about what that means to

:18:03. > :18:07.the organisation of our constitution in the future. How does the

:18:08. > :18:13.political class we gain trust? Well, I think... I was against devolution

:18:14. > :18:24.because I thought it would lead to this. But you can't have whatever it

:18:25. > :18:26.is going to be, 46%, 47%, of the people in Scotland not being

:18:27. > :18:31.satisfied with the present arrangement and not make radical

:18:32. > :18:44.changes which go well beyond... We will pause there and go to Orkney.

:18:45. > :18:55.The ballots counted 14,000, 907 -- 14,907. The total number of votes

:18:56. > :19:03.cast in relation to each answer:Yes, 4883. No, 10,004.

:19:04. > :19:07.Rejected, 20. The reasons for the rejection are as follows. Want of an

:19:08. > :19:13.official Mark, zero. Voting in favour of both answers, two. Writing

:19:14. > :19:24.or mark by which Rojer could be identified, five. Void for

:19:25. > :19:36.uncertainty, 13. And that is a pretty hefty win for

:19:37. > :19:41.the No campaign there. A turnout of 83.7% in Orkney. That is our second

:19:42. > :19:54.result. So let's look at the figures, then. 4883 to Yes, just

:19:55. > :20:03.over 10,000 to No. Turnout of just under 84%. You were suggesting,

:20:04. > :20:13.Sarah, that Orkney was never going to vote Yes. This is very solid

:20:14. > :20:18.Liberal Democrat territory. That is where the secretary of state for

:20:19. > :20:28.Scotland, Alistair Carmichael, is MP. The only two constituency MSPs

:20:29. > :20:31.in Scotland. We had an election in 2011 here after they had gone into

:20:32. > :20:35.coalition government in Westminster and they did very, very badly

:20:36. > :20:40.indeed. They lost 12 seats, all of their mainland constituencies. The

:20:41. > :20:45.only heartlands they have left our Orkney and Shetland. So this is not

:20:46. > :20:49.really a surprise. I would agree with that completely. I was up in

:20:50. > :20:56.Orkney recently opening a shop in the Main Street, a Yes shop, and

:20:57. > :21:00.that was seen as a staggering achievement, that they would even be

:21:01. > :21:06.a shop that would give itself over to the Yes campaign. That won't come

:21:07. > :21:15.as a huge surprise. That means we have had two results in. Let's have

:21:16. > :21:27.a look at our tally. Two results in, 30 to go. And there you have it. So

:21:28. > :21:32.far it is a margin for the Noes. But it is very early. We are still

:21:33. > :21:36.looking to places like Glasgow and eventually Edinburgh to give us the

:21:37. > :21:46.weight of votes that will allow us to make a wise judgement. Yes,

:21:47. > :21:51.17,000 maybe in Orkney, and Glasgow and Edinburgh have half a million.

:21:52. > :21:54.These are much bigger areas and will be more significant. But also, the

:21:55. > :21:59.pattern of voting is changing in Scotland. The thought that the West

:22:00. > :22:02.of Scotland was the key battle ground, where traditional Labour

:22:03. > :22:08.areas would be eating into, the question tonight is whether it is

:22:09. > :22:11.enough. At the moment, the faces of No campaigners, the evidence would

:22:12. > :22:19.suggest it is not enough for them to go. But we could be picking up on

:22:20. > :22:22.this, I heard the former Conservative Secretary of State for

:22:23. > :22:27.Scotland, the former opponent of devolution, said that what this

:22:28. > :22:32.measure and amend -- what this referendum meant was many more

:22:33. > :22:38.powers for Scotland. It is all coming back to me! Are putting words

:22:39. > :22:42.in my mouth! The three party leaders made a promise which I think they

:22:43. > :22:48.will find it very difficult to deliver, but has to be delivered in

:22:49. > :22:52.the light of this result. That means there will have to be big changes.

:22:53. > :22:58.Certainly English votes for English laws. And that means a huge change

:22:59. > :23:05.in the whole of the Constitution. I think we are going to win tonight.

:23:06. > :23:13.These two results, two swallows don't make a summer, but I am pretty

:23:14. > :23:17.certain it will be an No result. That opens up a whole range of

:23:18. > :23:25.questions which is probably going to lead us towards more of a federation

:23:26. > :23:29.than people have been prepared to accept, and it will be driven by

:23:30. > :23:33.England. People in England will want to see a fair distribution of

:23:34. > :23:37.resources, and they will want to see English legislation. We're not

:23:38. > :23:46.talking about local government here, we're talking about legislation. We

:23:47. > :23:49.Mac I think you were saying that if as many as 46 people have voted yes,

:23:50. > :23:54.Scotland will require more powers even were than was agreed by the

:23:55. > :23:58.party leaders. It wasn't agreed, as you know.

:23:59. > :24:03.Gordon Brown issued a timetable, but it was like having a bus timetable

:24:04. > :24:09.with none of the destinations. We didn't know what the ultimate result

:24:10. > :24:13.would be. And identifying that that is actually going to, if you take

:24:14. > :24:17.the most radical case, the conservative case, I do think that

:24:18. > :24:20.will satisfy people in Scotland. And equally, if you go further, then you

:24:21. > :24:24.will have to make important changes to the way in which Westminster

:24:25. > :24:29.works, particularly those MPs representing English constituencies.

:24:30. > :24:34.And the idea that you can keep Barnett, which Gordon Brown

:24:35. > :24:44.described as being based on need, is wrong. What we need to do is have a

:24:45. > :24:47.funding system based on need. So there is a whole range of things

:24:48. > :24:53.that need to be sorted out here in order to make sure that we don't end

:24:54. > :24:57.up in this position again. Saya saying that you don't think that the

:24:58. > :25:04.Westminster parties will be able to deliver this to the timetable that

:25:05. > :25:14.they agreed, the nine-month? They haven't agreed on this. The one

:25:15. > :25:19.thing they did agree on is the timetable, making sure it can't be

:25:20. > :25:23.kicked into the long grass. Have they actually signed up to it?

:25:24. > :25:29.Gordon Brown has made a big push with it. Do you think that the three

:25:30. > :25:34.leaders have signed up? They cobbled something together because they were

:25:35. > :25:39.frightened by the polls. Whatever they thought they were signing up

:25:40. > :25:44.to, the reality is, based on this campaign we have had here, there has

:25:45. > :25:49.to be important and radical change, and I am anti-devolution, I think

:25:50. > :25:54.we'll have to go beyond what was being suggested. Ruth Davidson

:25:55. > :26:00.described the Scottish Parliament as a pocket money Parliament. We are

:26:01. > :26:05.going to have to move. The argument that scared me to death on the

:26:06. > :26:09.doorsteps, used by the Yes campaign, was, we should be able to make our

:26:10. > :26:13.own decisions in Scotland. It is gone too far now. Just as we predict

:26:14. > :26:16.that it would if you set of the Scottish Parliament. You then have

:26:17. > :26:18.to look at the other side of this, which is what happens in England and

:26:19. > :26:23.Wales is Northern Ireland, and you cannot take, we will keep Barnett,

:26:24. > :26:28.when Wales is so badly short-changed. At the same time, you

:26:29. > :26:33.have to have some kind of transitional arrangement. How you

:26:34. > :26:36.can do all of this before the general election, which is

:26:37. > :26:39.effectively three months of Parliamentary time, you cannot

:26:40. > :26:42.terrorise the British constitution, put something in its place, and do

:26:43. > :26:47.it all because three party leaders decided to put out a press release.

:26:48. > :26:49.So somehow we have to persuade the people of Scotland that we are

:26:50. > :26:52.serious about giving the real powers, but it has to be in a proper

:26:53. > :26:56.manner that is fair to the other parts of the United Kingdom if we

:26:57. > :26:58.are to preserve the union which all of us on the side of the No campaign

:26:59. > :27:06.were determined to achieve. This campaign has been about

:27:07. > :27:09.mistrust of Westminster parliamentary leaders. The people of

:27:10. > :27:16.Scotland no longer trust Westminster to take care of their best interest.

:27:17. > :27:21.If they say we promise powers and promise it quickly ant don't deliver

:27:22. > :27:26.it will be consequencial? Absolutely. I accept that. You could

:27:27. > :27:30.cobble together English votes on English matters. That doesn't

:27:31. > :27:34.require legislation. I don't actually think that giving the

:27:35. > :27:38.Scottish Parliament a slice of income tax revenue will enable it to

:27:39. > :27:41.operate effectively. I don't think that people in England will accept

:27:42. > :27:48.the idea that Barnet, which is not based on need, is fair. It's not

:27:49. > :27:52.fair to Wales, it's not fair to the north-east of England. The one thing

:27:53. > :27:55.we have to learn from all of this is we need a stable and long-term

:27:56. > :28:01.arrange am. We pause for a second. We will go to the Better Together

:28:02. > :28:04.Campaign headquarters. Dr John Reid is there. The former Home Secretary.

:28:05. > :28:11.John, thank you for joining us. What is your sense of how things are

:28:12. > :28:15.going? Well, it's obviously gratifying, Huw, to get the first

:28:16. > :28:20.two results under our belt. By fairly significant margins. But, you

:28:21. > :28:24.know, that is two out of 32. It does wonders for the morale of the troops

:28:25. > :28:29.here. In the very nature of these things there will be ups and downs.

:28:30. > :28:31.I'm sure there will be one or two, rather than creating euphoria,

:28:32. > :28:38.create a bit of despair. It's going to be a few hours before we know the

:28:39. > :28:43.pattern. Having said that, it's good to see that the first two, which

:28:44. > :28:47.have come out, are under our belt. What was your sense of the momentum

:28:48. > :28:53.of the campaign in the last, let's say, four or five days? Well, I

:28:54. > :28:58.think in the last few days, there has been a sort of push back on the

:28:59. > :29:03.advance that Yes made. What happened here was, as long as we were talking

:29:04. > :29:08.about the arguments of a separate state, the Yes campaign was losing.

:29:09. > :29:17.They then diverted, a couple of months back, onto all sorts of odds

:29:18. > :29:22.and fragmented policy issues and marshalled a support on top of the

:29:23. > :29:25.nationalist vote on anyone who was against anything, the Tories,

:29:26. > :29:29.against the English, the bedroom tax and so on. That worked for a while.

:29:30. > :29:36.I think the last week or so, we've pushed back on it. Now, I'm sure

:29:37. > :29:40.that there will be ups and downs throughout the country. Close votes,

:29:41. > :29:43.some we will lose, some we will win. I'm not making any predictions, I

:29:44. > :29:46.thought from the beginning of this that the best thing is to rely on

:29:47. > :29:50.the good common sense of the Scottish people. There has been a

:29:51. > :29:55.huge registration. A very high turnout. And, I look forward to

:29:56. > :29:59.seeing that decision in a few hours' How do you time. Think Ed Miliband

:30:00. > :30:03.has performed in the campaign, John, do you think he's done well? I think

:30:04. > :30:08.all of the party leaders have done well am they have been at a

:30:09. > :30:12.disadvantage of course because the Yes campaign has plainly had an

:30:13. > :30:14.element of it that was anti-Westminster, anti-English, they

:30:15. > :30:18.all come from that background am they all have a responsibility. They

:30:19. > :30:25.are all committed to the United Kingdom. I think the significant

:30:26. > :30:29.thing is that they indicated how much the rest of the UK wanted

:30:30. > :30:33.Scotland to continue its partnership. The basic fight for

:30:34. > :30:39.votes here was among Scotsmen and women. That is the way it should be.

:30:40. > :30:43.We have to make our decision about whether we wish to remain a member

:30:44. > :30:47.of the club. After that, if we decide, as I hope the Scottish

:30:48. > :30:50.people will this morning, that we want to be a member of the club, we

:30:51. > :30:56.can then talk about the rules of the club. You know that there has been

:30:57. > :31:00.quite a lot of criticism, even from within Labour, about the quality of

:31:01. > :31:03.Labour's campaign as part of Better Together, and the role played by

:31:04. > :31:08.Scottish Labour, in particular. Do you think any of that criticism is

:31:09. > :31:13.valid? I think people failed to under estimate the difficulties of

:31:14. > :31:15.putting together what is the largests and widest peacetime

:31:16. > :31:21.coalition in the history of this country. There has never in

:31:22. > :31:30.peacetime been a campaign that has attempted to bring together the

:31:31. > :31:33.three major parties, and then all sorts of elements and bring it

:31:34. > :31:36.together. There was a separate campaign for all of the three

:31:37. > :31:39.parties as well. Don't under estimate the difficulties of doing

:31:40. > :31:44.that. Alex Salmond, on the other hand, controlled the SNP. He

:31:45. > :31:46.controlled the Scottish Government, the Scottish civil service, the

:31:47. > :31:50.Scottish administration, the handout of grants. He OKKed the planning

:31:51. > :32:02.permission much he dealt with the universities and the companies who

:32:03. > :32:05.wanted the (inaudible). We had to bring together a range of political

:32:06. > :32:10.opinions, some of whom didn't agree on a whole range of issues, all of

:32:11. > :32:14.whom agreed on one thing - the utility and benefits for Scotland of

:32:15. > :32:17.being part of the United Kingdom. I hope tonight that range will be

:32:18. > :32:23.joined by a majority of the people in Scotland. Was it a mistake not to

:32:24. > :32:30.have Gordon Brown as a far more prominent campaigner for you earlier

:32:31. > :32:36.on? No, I don't think so. There were different stages to this campaign.

:32:37. > :32:41.Given that we had to put together the widest range of unity, among

:32:42. > :32:45.various parties, the man who was choosen to do it was a man known not

:32:46. > :32:50.to be a tribal politician, Alistair Darling. Probably, at the time he

:32:51. > :32:55.went into this, the one member of the last four years of the Labour

:32:56. > :32:57.Government who came out with credit. Alistair Darling was acceptable to

:32:58. > :33:03.every side and could work with every side. Gordon is a formidable force,

:33:04. > :33:07.I don't think anyone would ever regard him as other than, you know,

:33:08. > :33:14.an ex-ownent of the family of Labour. -- exponent. It was right

:33:15. > :33:20.Alistair Darling did that. He was backed up by a lot of people, Frank

:33:21. > :33:24.Roy, doing the organisations behind-the-scenes. All the stalwarts

:33:25. > :33:27.were prepared to work with the other parties because this issue is bigger

:33:28. > :33:32.than anything. We have done it before, on the steel industry and

:33:33. > :33:37.other issues in Scotland, and it's right that people expect that you

:33:38. > :33:41.put your petty and personal differences aside. But, at the end

:33:42. > :33:46.of the day, it is a very difficult thing to do and much more difficult

:33:47. > :33:50.than the task that Alex Salmond had. Towards the end of the campaign, of

:33:51. > :33:55.course, Gordon Brown, Douglas, myself and others came in because it

:33:56. > :33:59.was obvious that there was questions being asked by some of the Labour

:34:00. > :34:03.supporters. Some of them were voting forcep are 'tissism, the same way

:34:04. > :34:10.that a lot of SNP voters were voting for unity. So, at that stage, Gordon

:34:11. > :34:13.made a profound contribution. Thank you very much for joining us from

:34:14. > :34:18.the Better Together headquarters. Thank you, Huw. I'm just about to

:34:19. > :34:24.make contact I think with the Yes campaign headquarters in Glasgow and

:34:25. > :34:27.our reporter Ken McDonald is there. What is the atmosphere like and tell

:34:28. > :34:35.us more about what they are saying there? It's been jumping here. We

:34:36. > :34:39.are not an official Yes party. There aren't any official Yes parties,

:34:40. > :34:43.such is the nature of the campaign. Grassroots, bottom up now for more

:34:44. > :34:50.than two years. Various movements across the country. We have had

:34:51. > :34:54.Architects for Yes. We have the creative industries for Yes. This is

:34:55. > :35:04.a beautiful old office building in the Merchant City in Glasgow. We are

:35:05. > :35:09.at the headquarters here and this is the head guy, Adrian. You were

:35:10. > :35:12.confident it would be a Yes vote, given what you have seen from

:35:13. > :35:19.Clackmannanshire, are you still feeling confident? Very much so.

:35:20. > :35:22.It's a numbers game. Not like a parliamentary election where it's

:35:23. > :35:26.constituency after constituency, it's about every single vote.

:35:27. > :35:31.Ultimately it's about the will of the whole people rather than

:35:32. > :35:37.segmenting it up like a Terry's chocolate orange. From that point of

:35:38. > :35:40.view, I think, clearly, it's disappointing not to win anything.

:35:41. > :35:46.We know it will be close anyway. These are both very small areas that

:35:47. > :35:50.have declared so far. An area like Glasgow is going to trump all of

:35:51. > :35:57.those and many more. I think we just have to wait. It's a marathon, not a

:35:58. > :36:05.sprint. You have been a great host tonight. We have had stand-up,

:36:06. > :36:14.singer songwriters. Poetry. The Glasgow Poet Laureate wa speaking.

:36:15. > :36:21.The creative industries have been 99% behind the Yes campaign? I think

:36:22. > :36:27.creative professionals look ahead. They look to the future. There has

:36:28. > :36:33.been some kind of hope, some kind of optimism there for work to really

:36:34. > :36:37.resonate, whether it be art, whether it be sculpture or poetry. I think

:36:38. > :36:42.from that point of view, we as an industry and as a profession want to

:36:43. > :36:46.believe that Scotland can be a better place. That we can take it to

:36:47. > :36:52.a place where people's lives are better. It's a more equal society.

:36:53. > :36:57.And, we're natural optimists. I was saying, just a moment ago, this is a

:36:58. > :37:03.wonderful office building. Not a phrase you hear very often. It's

:37:04. > :37:09.part of the Merchant City, this is why this is

:37:10. > :37:16.Virgina t street. It was built when the Union was young, will it see the

:37:17. > :37:21.Union out? I certainly hope so. I hope it's the Union will end

:37:22. > :37:30.tonight, personally, I think that Scotland is more than capable of

:37:31. > :37:34.looking after itself. An old boss of mine, Vicky Featherstone. A few days

:37:35. > :37:43.ago on Newsnight said that she, if she had still been living here would

:37:44. > :37:48.be voting Yes because she felt that Scotland had become infantalised.

:37:49. > :37:52.That hurt, but at the same time I think she's right. It's incredibly

:37:53. > :37:57.important that Scotland really takes responsibility for itself. Stops

:37:58. > :38:01.blaming other people for its woes and ills and looks forward to the

:38:02. > :38:06.future, takes control. We can do it ourselves. Of course we can. We

:38:07. > :38:13.publish a lot of international writers. One Slovenian writer.

:38:14. > :38:18.Slovenia went through this process 20 years ago, something he said was

:38:19. > :38:22.the biggest benefit that Slovenia had had since becoming independent

:38:23. > :38:27.in 1991, they couldn't blame anyone else for their problems any more.

:38:28. > :38:32.It's so important Scotland grows up as a nation and starts to believe it

:38:33. > :38:37.can control its own affairs. Do you think possibly this campaign has

:38:38. > :38:44.been, if you like, a bridge too far? There was a very much an idea that

:38:45. > :38:47.perhaps we a third of the population were in favour of independence it

:38:48. > :38:50.was a question of trying to pull people up to 50% and maybe you

:38:51. > :38:55.haven't quite made it? I don't think that is the case at all. I'm still

:38:56. > :39:01.extremely confident that, over the course of the night, we will see a

:39:02. > :39:04.Yes vote. This probably will be Scotland's longest night. As

:39:05. > :39:08.correspondents always say - we will have to wait and see. Ken, thank you

:39:09. > :39:14.very much. Thank you to your guest too. That is a very useful note for

:39:15. > :39:18.us. Realistic note. Wait for the votes to be counted. Here we are

:39:19. > :39:21.Better Together, Jim Murphy. Labour MP, prominent campaigner for Better

:39:22. > :39:25.Together. Arriving at the headquarters, just a few minutes

:39:26. > :39:30.ago. This was literally in the past few minutes. You have to say, at

:39:31. > :39:33.this stage, the images we have seen from there look, you know, they seem

:39:34. > :39:38.to be pretty happy with things so far, even though we had two results

:39:39. > :39:43.in, can I stress that, we have 30 to go. There you are. They have been

:39:44. > :39:49.applauding and celebrating the two results in. Jim Murphy himself has

:39:50. > :39:55.been on social media saying it looks like a big win for No in our local

:39:56. > :39:59.authority of East Renfrewshire, over 90% turnout. That's Jim Murphy.

:40:00. > :40:04.Maybe we will have a word with Jim Murphy in a moment. Let us look at

:40:05. > :40:07.the key councils to come. They are not councils, key local authority

:40:08. > :40:08.areas. The results in the local authority areas in this referendum.

:40:09. > :40:28.We can join Jeremy again. Huw, thank you very much. You can't

:40:29. > :40:34.set too much store by the Orkney Islands, only half of 1% of the

:40:35. > :40:40.total voting population. Inverclyde and Renfrewshire we gather are

:40:41. > :40:47.coming in sooner rather than later. If I give you a reordering of these

:40:48. > :40:51.councils by birthplace, the number of people in these council areas who

:40:52. > :40:55.were born in Scotland, which tends to correlate with a desire for

:40:56. > :40:59.independence is, so these areas where it is deepest purple, where

:41:00. > :41:02.most people are born in Scotland and have stayed, you'd think they would

:41:03. > :41:09.be most inclined to want independence. Inverclyde and

:41:10. > :41:15.Renfrewshire are both in the deep purple boxes. Then at the other end

:41:16. > :41:22.there are fewer people born in Scotland. I will show you a map now

:41:23. > :41:28.Scotland so we can get a fix on where they both are, so come with

:41:29. > :41:34.me. You can see Inverclyde there on the western side, I will make it

:41:35. > :41:38.flash. Near to Glasgow. If you look at the number of people warning

:41:39. > :41:43.Scotland in Inverclyde, it shows that actually, if we bring this out,

:41:44. > :41:51.take a look at the graft. We have a disproportionate number of

:41:52. > :41:58.residents born in Scotland compared to the national average. And then,

:41:59. > :42:01.very low down here, people in Inverclyde who are either from other

:42:02. > :42:07.parts of the UK or other countries altogether. So fairly low

:42:08. > :42:12.immigration in Inverclyde. And that tends to correlate with a desire for

:42:13. > :42:21.independence. So we will watch closely. Let's do the same with

:42:22. > :42:27.Renfrewshire. You can see they are both in the area of Glasgow, around

:42:28. > :42:30.Glasgow. Both similar places, lots of socially deprived areas would

:42:31. > :42:34.also tends to correlate with a desire for independence. So you are

:42:35. > :42:37.starting to think that maybe Renfrewshire would have been

:42:38. > :42:44.expected before the evening began to vote Yes. Again, people born in

:42:45. > :42:52.Scotland in Renfrewshire, very high, more than nine out of ten. So we are

:42:53. > :42:54.looking at this, because we are looking for indicators and clues,

:42:55. > :43:03.trying to get the characteristics of these council areas. And, not many

:43:04. > :43:09.people born outside Scotland or outside the UK have come to live. So

:43:10. > :43:14.they have the characteristics of council areas that would have been

:43:15. > :43:18.expected to go Yes. And having seen what has happened in

:43:19. > :43:23.Clackmannanshire and heard about the mood in the Better Together campaign

:43:24. > :43:27.with John Reid, you wonder whether we might get results the surprise

:43:28. > :43:37.people tonight from those two areas. So very interesting indeed, Huw.

:43:38. > :43:41.Jeremy, thank you very much. We will get the very latest with the area to

:43:42. > :43:49.declare. Let's look at the count going on in Stirling, for example.

:43:50. > :43:53.Sarah, what you reckon there? It is going to be a very interesting one,

:43:54. > :43:58.because by all the predictions, that is somewhere in the middle of where

:43:59. > :44:01.we would expect the vote to go. It is much closer to a kind of

:44:02. > :44:11.bellwether seat than we have seen so far. It used to vote for a Tory MP

:44:12. > :44:15.in Michael Forsyth. Possibly we would expect to be tending slightly

:44:16. > :44:21.towards No, but probably in the middle of the prediction, so it will

:44:22. > :44:26.be interesting. John Curtice is giving us some guidance on turnout.

:44:27. > :44:32.He says given the results so far, the overall turnout looks as though

:44:33. > :44:37.it will be around 84%, says John. It could just a little more. He says

:44:38. > :44:44.that would be a record high turnout in a nationwide vote in Scotland.

:44:45. > :44:49.The previous record was 81% in 1951. Lesley, I thought at one stage you

:44:50. > :44:51.were going to run up to the screen when John Reid was speaking and

:44:52. > :44:55.actually start doing something rather vigorous, because what was it

:44:56. > :45:01.that he said which so offended you? Three things. First of all the

:45:02. > :45:08.suggestion that Yes campaigners are in some way anti-English. It is

:45:09. > :45:14.obvious, we are here with such a razor close result because lots of

:45:15. > :45:16.Scots have got the stage they do not want what they feel is coming from

:45:17. > :45:21.Westminster, they haven't voted for it for decades. So the questions

:45:22. > :45:26.about the food banks, the kind of society we have become, that is a

:45:27. > :45:29.core part of this debate, and it is nothing to do with English people,

:45:30. > :45:35.it is to do with difficulty about getting a democratic response to

:45:36. > :45:40.people vote in this country. The second thing was that it is not just

:45:41. > :45:44.ourselves. The last opinion poll, the 51% opinion poll suggested that

:45:45. > :45:53.sexy 1% of voters thought that the No campaign was unduly negative will

:45:54. > :45:58.. That is not just spin from us, it is voters' own perceptions. And this

:45:59. > :46:04.one-man band lark about Alex Salmond. I appreciate he is a

:46:05. > :46:11.one-man band in that he is the First Minister and the leader of the SNP.

:46:12. > :46:19.The peculiar aspect of the Yes campaign is that it has herded a

:46:20. > :46:25.bunch of cats into one bag. There were many separate movements within

:46:26. > :46:31.the wider Yes movement, and it makes me sad that we have to keep this

:46:32. > :46:35.pretence up that the whole of the Yes campaign was simply one SNP led

:46:36. > :46:41.campaign led by one-man, as if Nicola Sturgeon, who polled

:46:42. > :46:52.regularly higher ratings than Alex, who in turn polls higher ratings

:46:53. > :46:55.than Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband put together, and it just doesn't

:46:56. > :47:01.reflect the esteem with which these people are held. Michael? I do think

:47:02. > :47:05.there is any point in refighting the campaign now. I think we should be

:47:06. > :47:09.looking forward. We will get the result in a few hours time, and we

:47:10. > :47:17.should look forward to what we are going to do about some of the issues

:47:18. > :47:22.addressed on both sides. I have to say that to criticise the No

:47:23. > :47:26.campaign for being negative, by definition, if you want people to

:47:27. > :47:30.vote no, that is a negative thing to do. And that arose because Alex

:47:31. > :47:35.Salmond was allowed to choose the question. So instead of asking, do

:47:36. > :47:41.you wish to remain part of the United Kingdom, we had the question

:47:42. > :47:44.the other way around. So given what David Cameron did which was to allow

:47:45. > :47:47.Alex Salmond to choose the timing of the campaign, the question and the

:47:48. > :47:54.franchise, every conceivable advantage was given to the

:47:55. > :48:00.Nationalists, to the Yes campaign, and if, as looks likely, there is an

:48:01. > :48:04.overwhelming rejection of that on a big turnout in Scotland, then

:48:05. > :48:09.hopefully we can bury for ever the idea of independence. It is probably

:48:10. > :48:14.too early to say that yet. I am just saying, if that is the result. Then

:48:15. > :48:20.we can concentrate on finding a constitutional solution to the