26/08/2014

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:00:22. > :00:25.Round two of Salmond versus Darling, but who came out on top?

:00:26. > :00:27.Two men with different visions for the future of Scotland.

:00:28. > :00:38.If you wanted a calm and quiet discussion, no chance.

:00:39. > :00:53.I want to know what plan B is. You don't have to point. They are just

:00:54. > :00:55.like buses, you expect one and then you get three in a row.

:00:56. > :00:58.90 minutes of debate and page after page of newspaper reaction,

:00:59. > :01:00.but what impact will it really have on voters?

:01:01. > :01:07.On social media, Better Together's Douglas Alexander

:01:08. > :01:13.Unsurprisingly the Yes campaign disagreed.

:01:14. > :01:22.SNP Finance Secretary John Swinney said Darling was:

:01:23. > :01:25.The first votes in the Scottish independence referendum are closer

:01:26. > :01:31.Local councils have started to send out postal ballot papers.

:01:32. > :01:34.Voters are still weighing up the arguments made during last night's

:01:35. > :01:37.second and final televised debate between the First Minister Alex

:01:38. > :01:42.Salmond and the leader of the Better Together campaign, Alistair Darling.

:01:43. > :01:44.In a moment I'll be getting the thoughts

:01:45. > :01:48.How did they think the two men performed last night, and what

:01:49. > :01:58.First though, here's our Scotland Political Editor Brian Taylor.

:01:59. > :02:08.Take the debate to the streets. Yes campaigners lampoon their rivals. We

:02:09. > :02:14.think that he really energised us all. We know what we have to do now.

:02:15. > :02:19.We have to get out there and win it, because everybody has high energy.

:02:20. > :02:26.No campaigners say the doorstep doubts about it still exist. Whoever

:02:27. > :02:32.wins it, that will not change the campaign, it will be speaking to

:02:33. > :02:40.people in the grass roots. Most think Alex Salmond won the debate.

:02:41. > :02:44.Unlike the last one. The first one, I think Alistair Darling probably

:02:45. > :02:50.came out on top, but last night I think Alex Salmond did a lot better.

:02:51. > :03:00.In the debate, Alex Salmond retaliated first. A yes vote would

:03:01. > :03:06.be a mandate to keep the pound. It was said Scotland could use the

:03:07. > :03:10.pound, but at a cost. Of course we could. We could use the dollar, we

:03:11. > :03:16.could use the euro. The problem is... If you are using somebody

:03:17. > :03:23.else's currency, you don't have a central bank. He admitted we could

:03:24. > :03:31.use the pound anyway, we don't need permission. Alex Salmond warned

:03:32. > :03:36.about the NHS. Alistair Darling called it scaremongering. Alex

:03:37. > :03:43.Salmond pursued him relentlessly. What would be available to tackle

:03:44. > :03:52.unemployment? What are they? I have told you. This morning, Alistair

:03:53. > :03:56.Darling swore he was still in the right over currency. It would be

:03:57. > :04:01.ludicrous for us to use somebody else's currency. It would be massive

:04:02. > :04:06.expenditure. Nobody wants to join the euro. He can't tell us, and he

:04:07. > :04:14.won't because he suspects he doesn't know the answer, he hasn't answered,

:04:15. > :04:21.we still don't know what money we would be using. Facts put before

:04:22. > :04:25.Glasgow, his opponent had no idea on boosting jobs. He cited two other

:04:26. > :04:29.points. I think what is far more important than winning a debate is

:04:30. > :04:38.why you win. The pound bluff has been called. The bluff on a currency

:04:39. > :04:40.has been well and truly calls. Secondly, the National Health

:04:41. > :04:44.Service, and people 's concerns and fears about the implications and

:04:45. > :05:22.government cutbacks from England, Meanwhile The Shadow chancellor

:05:23. > :05:24.Ed Balls chose to focus Scotland would probably end up with

:05:25. > :05:28.the Euro, the least worst option for

:05:29. > :05:30.Scotland". Stephan Noonan from the Yes campaign

:05:31. > :05:32.saw things differently, writing: "Mr Darling in trouble on his own

:05:33. > :05:35.currency questions, after tonight's Meanwhile the deputy

:05:36. > :05:39.First Minister Nicola Sturgeon urged people not to miss

:05:40. > :05:41.their chance to have independence: "As #indyref postal votes go out,

:05:42. > :05:43.these words of Mandela seem appropriate `

:05:44. > :06:06.'may your choices reflect One of the most contested issues is

:06:07. > :06:11.North Sea oil. This correspondence from Aberdeen. For centuries this

:06:12. > :06:15.was a fishing port. Now Aberdeen's harbour, less than one square mile,

:06:16. > :06:22.supplies the whole of the North Sea oil industry. There is no decline in

:06:23. > :06:29.activity. Far from it. I have worked here for over 20 years now and when

:06:30. > :06:32.I came here they said, there is only another 20 years left. 20 years

:06:33. > :06:36.later, they are saying the same thing. We are going into waters they

:06:37. > :06:42.would not have thought about before, and there is a loss of confidence

:06:43. > :06:47.here. As technology has improved, reserves that were costly to drill

:06:48. > :06:52.have become accessible. Aberdeen's oil economy is still booming. From

:06:53. > :06:56.the water here you get a real sense of how crowded this harbour is

:06:57. > :07:00.becoming. These vessels are getting bigger all the time, and there are

:07:01. > :07:06.more and more of them. The harbour is bursting at the seams. Some sort

:07:07. > :07:11.of major expansion is planned before the end of this decade. But is all

:07:12. > :07:16.of this activity deceptive? One analyst says oil activity will taper

:07:17. > :07:20.off to nearly nothing over the next 35 years. There is a depletion

:07:21. > :07:23.taking place. What we need to understand for the future of

:07:24. > :07:27.Scotland, if you look 20 or 30 years ahead, you can't count for a

:07:28. > :07:36.significant amount of income from oil or gas. Sir Ian Wood says there

:07:37. > :07:46.are no more than 16 and a half billion barrels of oil left. That is

:07:47. > :07:54.disputed,. Oil barrels could bring 6.9 billion pounds. The government

:07:55. > :08:01.says that could be less than 3 billion. Yes campaigners say the UK

:08:02. > :08:05.Treasury has a 40 year track record of deliberately underestimating the

:08:06. > :08:15.value of North Sea oil reserves. This is where we planned 170 new

:08:16. > :08:19.houses. This is the richest part of Britain outside of London and the

:08:20. > :08:24.south`east. The economy and the population are still expanding, as

:08:25. > :08:29.is the demand for high end housing. We are seeing a huge amount of

:08:30. > :08:32.enquiries, we are having 200 new enquiries per week for our

:08:33. > :08:37.development. I am hoping to translate those into sales very

:08:38. > :08:41.soon. Two thirds of the traffic at Aberdeen airport is oil related. It

:08:42. > :08:47.will keep ferrying workers to the regs, and the oil will keep flowing

:08:48. > :08:50.until 2015 at least. Each side in a referendum makes bold assertions

:08:51. > :08:52.about how much revenue this will generate. They don't know for

:08:53. > :08:59.certain. The truth is, nobody does. A snap poll last night suggested

:09:00. > :09:01.voters thought Alex Salmond won So how do people intend

:09:02. > :09:05.to vote next month? Let's look

:09:06. > :09:08.at the latest polling data. The poll of polls suggests no

:09:09. > :09:12.change since August 15th: the no campaign remains on 57%

:09:13. > :09:15.when don't knows are excluded. That's according to an average

:09:16. > :09:19.of half a dozen polls taken in July and August, calculated by the

:09:20. > :09:24.What Scotland Thinks website. Let's do a bit

:09:25. > :09:26.of number crunching with Tom Costley from polling organisation TNS,

:09:27. > :09:40.who's in Westminster. Thank you for joining us. Polling

:09:41. > :09:43.evidence taken after the last debate suggested it didn't make a big

:09:44. > :09:47.difference to how people intended to vote. Do you think this one will?

:09:48. > :09:54.That is very much the interesting question. Whether or not Alex

:09:55. > :10:00.Salmond better performance will lead to a better turn out in the polls.

:10:01. > :10:07.There was nothing significant coming through after Alistair Darling's

:10:08. > :10:12.performance in the first debate. Did Yes Scotland need a big game

:10:13. > :10:16.changer? They have been consistently behind for a few months. Do they

:10:17. > :10:20.need some big game changing event if they are going to do this? Or could

:10:21. > :10:25.they use momentum from last night and slowly built to a victory? I

:10:26. > :10:30.think it depends how much momentum they can pick up from last night.

:10:31. > :10:33.Without a doubt, if Alex Salmond hadn't performed as well is he did,

:10:34. > :10:39.that would have been a very difficult task for them to make up

:10:40. > :10:48.the difference. If he can get a kick on from last night, it may well be

:10:49. > :10:54.that they lead to close that gap. For every vote or percentage point

:10:55. > :11:04.that the Yes campaign takes, it is one away from the Yellow campaign ``

:11:05. > :11:08.from the No campaign. Both sides said there are enough undecided

:11:09. > :11:11.voters to swing it. This debate has been going on for two years now. If

:11:12. > :11:15.people are still undecided, do you think there are people who are

:11:16. > :11:19.actually going to vote is to mark we have done a great deal of focus here

:11:20. > :11:29.in terms of looking at those people who are certain to vote. This has

:11:30. > :11:33.remained between 70% to 75% throughout all of 2014. Within that

:11:34. > :11:40.group, people who are voting Yes, they say they are certain to do so.

:11:41. > :11:44.Some who claim they are voting No say they are certain to do so.

:11:45. > :11:50.Within this group, we believe we have filtered out those who have no

:11:51. > :11:57.intention of voting and we have estimated that group, probably

:11:58. > :12:00.around 400,000 Scots are genuinely in the undecided category. And they

:12:01. > :12:04.could yet swing it. Do you think there will be the record high

:12:05. > :12:12.turnout that is predicted? The last two referendums in Scotland had been

:12:13. > :12:17.61% and 65%. We have been consistently getting this 70 to 73%

:12:18. > :12:23.saying they are certainly voting. I think it will be height `` I think

:12:24. > :12:41.it will be high 70s. Thank you. Now let's speak to two former

:12:42. > :12:45.special advisers. They join us from Edinburgh this evening. Thank you

:12:46. > :12:50.for coming in. Jennifer, can I ask you to pick up on what we were

:12:51. > :12:54.talking about there. There is general agreement that Alex Salmond

:12:55. > :12:59.won the vote, but that is different from winning undecided voters. Will

:13:00. > :13:02.this make a difference? I definitely think this will. Particularly

:13:03. > :13:09.because it was such a strong performance. A lot of people watched

:13:10. > :13:13.it, and what was really important was he systematically destroyed two

:13:14. > :13:20.of the core planks of the No campaign, which was firstly that we

:13:21. > :13:27.can't use the pound, and also the argument we could have no powers in

:13:28. > :13:35.the event of a No vote. It shows they are not serious, and so it is

:13:36. > :13:42.set forward the case of the consequences of a no vote. I think

:13:43. > :13:47.Alex Salmond did well. Simon, what happened to Alistair Darling last

:13:48. > :13:51.night? He turned up last night with the same old arguments are not

:13:52. > :14:04.expecting Alec Salmond to have upped his game. `` Alex Salmond. Alex

:14:05. > :14:10.Salmond did win the debate last night. But Alistair Darling won the

:14:11. > :14:21.first debate. I think that theme last night about plan be one out. It

:14:22. > :14:31.has been a morale boost for the Yes campaign, but there is an unedifying

:14:32. > :14:41.spectacle, degenerated. The plan B was not satisfactory. He said there

:14:42. > :14:47.would be sterling, policy decided down south. The Bank of England

:14:48. > :14:58.governor might have more say in a Scottish budget. He said his

:14:59. > :15:00.preferred option was a common currency.

:15:01. > :15:10.The audience groaned when Alex Salmond said this. Do you think they

:15:11. > :15:19.are sick of the plan B? I think people are a bit sick with a lot of

:15:20. > :15:24.the issues in the campaign. Map I think there is a bit of that, and

:15:25. > :15:31.maybe Alistair Darling should be more wide ranging in some of his

:15:32. > :15:34.arguments. I personally don't think that Better Together are making a

:15:35. > :15:39.strong enough argument to counter the negativity from the

:15:40. > :15:48.Nationalists, as if Westminster is an evil empire, as if it is broken

:15:49. > :15:53.Britain. It is rhetoric along the lines of David Cameron before the

:15:54. > :15:56.2010 election. I think a lot of Scottish people do recognise that.

:15:57. > :16:00.But also, a key thing that Alex Salmond said last night, the threat

:16:01. > :16:04.to default on that. I think this will come back to haunt him. The

:16:05. > :16:13.idea that an independent Scotland could kick off defaulting on debt

:16:14. > :16:17.sends out a terrible message to the world financial markets and damages

:16:18. > :16:20.Scotland's reputation. It is not statesman`like of him to make that

:16:21. > :16:26.threat. One thing that Alex Salmond did keep ringing up is the NHS, and

:16:27. > :16:34.this is a relatively new argument in the independence debate. It is a bit

:16:35. > :16:37.confusing. Most health care policy in Scotland is already fully

:16:38. > :16:43.devolved to the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh, so why are the yes

:16:44. > :16:46.campaign going so hard on the NHS? A publicly delivered NHS is something

:16:47. > :16:52.that the people of Scotland treasure, and it is clear that, with

:16:53. > :16:56.the continued austerities agenda of the Westminster government, it means

:16:57. > :16:59.more cuts to public spending. They continue down the route of

:17:00. > :17:04.privatisation in England, and in Scotland we have not had that same

:17:05. > :17:08.situation. People in England have had that too far greater scale. We

:17:09. > :17:11.will end up with production to our budget, which means an inability to

:17:12. > :17:20.deliver the key things we care about, such as the public delivery

:17:21. > :17:26.of the NHS. We want to retain and protect the NHS from the Westminster

:17:27. > :17:29.privatisation agenda. Ultimately, austerity agenda means cuts to

:17:30. > :17:33.budget. We want a normal parliament, a parliament which is

:17:34. > :17:36.responsible for raising and spending its money. A parliament where the

:17:37. > :17:43.people of Scotland are in charge. Not a government 400 miles away that

:17:44. > :17:46.we did not elect. A lot of people have commented on how bad`tempered

:17:47. > :17:52.and aggressive the tone of the debate was at times. Will that have

:17:53. > :17:56.turned of some voters? Alex Salmond got criticised last time because he

:17:57. > :18:00.did not get worked up enough. I think people expect that from

:18:01. > :18:05.political discourse. Both of them are passionate about their case, and

:18:06. > :18:12.the First Minister was very direct about the key things, what he sees

:18:13. > :18:16.as the threats are, and really holding Alistair Darling on the key

:18:17. > :18:21.things such as whether we use sterling or not, and tackling the

:18:22. > :18:32.scaremongering in the campaign. Thank you both very much for talking

:18:33. > :18:38.to us tonight. They'll be more coverage from 7:30pm tomorrow night.

:18:39. > :18:41.Gavin Esler will examine how important Scotland's oil capital is

:18:42. > :18:46.in this referendum campaign. And James Cook will be in Shetland. You

:18:47. > :18:49.can stay up`to`date with the Scottish referendum as it happens

:18:50. > :18:56.here on the BBC News Channel. Much more whenever you want it on the BBC

:18:57. > :19:00.News website. We will bring you the latest on the campaign Trail every

:19:01. > :19:11.weekday at 7:30pm. Until 7:30pm tomorrow night, good night.

:19:12. > :19:17.A report finds 1,400 children were sexually exploited in Rotherham

:19:18. > :19:23.Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in