:00:09. > :00:18.It has been a bleak economic winter. But now, six years on, are things in
:00:19. > :00:28.Northern Ireland finally brightening up? It is brilliant. In employment
:00:29. > :00:31.is down and exports are rising. We have got biscuits in Las Vegas.
:00:32. > :00:38.Northern Ireland companies can export. If the recession is over,
:00:39. > :00:46.why doesn't it feel like it? The disposable income has been disposed
:00:47. > :00:59.of. It is a fragile recovery that can be spoiled by our problems. The
:01:00. > :01:02.issue with political instability and the flags is the biggest problem I
:01:03. > :01:28.have. Welcome to Belfast. Belfast City
:01:29. > :01:35.Hall gets ready to switch on the Christmas lights. I think it will be
:01:36. > :01:40.wonderful. The Christmas shopping period is the most important is
:01:41. > :01:46.wonderful. The Christmas shopping of the year for many businesses. We
:01:47. > :01:52.consider this very much to be a community... Inside City Hall, the
:01:53. > :02:01.lord mayor is hosting an informal meeting with conference organisers.
:02:02. > :02:12.I believe we are coming out of recession and we have to build
:02:13. > :02:17.confidence. These people create buzz and when one group comes, they say
:02:18. > :02:21.to another group that they have been here. Outside of these Christmas
:02:22. > :02:26.shoppers a sign of a tentative recovery? Yes, it is only
:02:27. > :02:31.mid-November, but I want to know if people are planning to spend more
:02:32. > :02:37.over this festive period? I did not spend much last year, but I have a
:02:38. > :02:46.job now. About the same. A little bit more, I think. I was made
:02:47. > :02:52.redundant there, so it will be tight coming up to Christmas.
:02:53. > :03:01.This week, Belfast City Council announced a 275,000 Christmas
:03:02. > :03:06.promotional campaign. The hope is that it will boost trade in the city
:03:07. > :03:22.and capitalise on the feel-good factor.
:03:23. > :03:30.After six years of decline, this Christmas may mark the beginning of
:03:31. > :03:37.the recovery. But what will it feel like as we see welcome to the new
:03:38. > :03:46.economy? Property prices have fallen by more than half since their peak.
:03:47. > :03:51.By some measure, ours is the worst property crash in the world. But
:03:52. > :03:57.every cloud has a silver lining. This woman is getting keys to her
:03:58. > :04:02.new home. A house that was beyond her reach a few years ago is now
:04:03. > :04:08.affordable. What are your plans for in here? We are going to pull this
:04:09. > :04:15.out. We could never have afforded to buy
:04:16. > :04:25.a property back then. You could extend out the back. This
:04:26. > :04:31.is about ?100,000. At the height, it must have been ?200,000 at least.
:04:32. > :04:40.Across the road, one house was valued at over ?230,000. It would
:04:41. > :04:49.not have been affordable even if banks gave a mortgage without a
:04:50. > :04:54.deposit. Is the market finally bouncing back? I last visited this
:04:55. > :04:59.estate agent in the midst of our property crash. Do you still have
:05:00. > :05:09.the bill that the guys bring when they cut a deal? -- ring. Yes, and
:05:10. > :05:16.it is run more frequently than it was a few years ago, but not as
:05:17. > :05:19.often as I would like to hear it. Towards 2006 and 2007, it was
:05:20. > :05:23.incredibly difficult for first-time buyers to get on the housing
:05:24. > :05:28.ladder. Housing prices have readjusted and it is more
:05:29. > :05:38.straightforward now. In commercial property, even refinancing your
:05:39. > :05:42.property can be extremely difficult. This modest upturn in activity is
:05:43. > :05:56.limited to certain sectors and places. I am on my way to Dromore.
:05:57. > :06:05.This house was on the market for several years. If we had put it on
:06:06. > :06:11.earlier, it might have gone quite quickly. But our timing was wrong.
:06:12. > :06:16.They had reduced the asking price by almost half, down from almost ?1
:06:17. > :06:26.million. It has been two years since we have met the owners here. But now
:06:27. > :06:40.we are back to meet the people who live here now. Hello. Since my last
:06:41. > :06:51.visit, they have dropped the asking price by even more. You are still
:06:52. > :06:56.here? Yes, two years on, still trying to sell the house. It is
:06:57. > :07:01.still on the market. We have dropped it a couple of times since we last
:07:02. > :07:06.spoke. We have had a couple of offers as well, one of which we
:07:07. > :07:11.accepted, but that fell through. They are still looking for that
:07:12. > :07:21.elusive buyer. The couple are aware that they are playing a long game.
:07:22. > :07:26.If we had bought this house in 2006, we probably would not be doing
:07:27. > :07:32.this interview because we would have been so depressed. Luckily, we
:07:33. > :07:36.bought this in 2004, so the price has gone up and come back down
:07:37. > :07:42.again. We have tried to stay realistic all the way through and,
:07:43. > :07:50.hopefully, things have turned the corner and we are hopeful of selling
:07:51. > :07:56.soon. I sense they have taken a philosophical approach to their
:07:57. > :08:02.experiences in the property crash. But they can afford to wait. Others
:08:03. > :08:09.are not so lucky. Auctions, which include many repossessed
:08:10. > :08:16.properties, are now commonplace. Behind the bargain offers our
:08:17. > :08:22.individual stories of misery. This man advises people from all walks of
:08:23. > :08:26.life on managing their debt. He negotiates on their behalf with the
:08:27. > :08:32.banks. His firm is currently handling cases totalling a quarter
:08:33. > :08:38.of ?1 billion of debt. There are three sets of people. Those who are
:08:39. > :08:43.doing quite well, but most people in the country would fall into the next
:08:44. > :08:49.two categories, those that are running out of money and those that
:08:50. > :08:56.have run out of money. If you look at that analysis, that does not mean
:08:57. > :09:00.we are running out of research -- that does not mean we are moving out
:09:01. > :09:04.of recession. Court orders threatening repossession are up on
:09:05. > :09:12.the same period last year. This personal debt mountain may be our
:09:13. > :09:19.guest economic -- our biggest economic hurdle. Through the good
:09:20. > :09:25.years, Northern Ireland was no different from anywhere else in
:09:26. > :09:30.terms of personal debt, credit. That is having a significant effect on R4
:09:31. > :09:45.salts and their ability to spend. -- on our households. But we had such a
:09:46. > :09:52.big boom here, surely that must have a negative effect? I do not know
:09:53. > :09:58.whether it is worse or better in Northern Ireland. We are seeing
:09:59. > :10:08.unemployment fall, this is a cavity and business activity increasing, we
:10:09. > :10:17.are not seeing the improvement in people's pockets.
:10:18. > :10:25.The trend we are seeing, once people have done and bought all they need,
:10:26. > :10:35.there is nothing left. Disposable income is disposed of. For the last
:10:36. > :10:40.few years, the cost of living has been going up faster than wages.
:10:41. > :10:45.This feedback was set up recently. The organisation that runs it now
:10:46. > :10:51.has 11 in Northern Ireland. This woman and her volunteers have been
:10:52. > :10:56.gathering food parcels for those in need. We anticipate Christmas and
:10:57. > :11:02.the winter period, that will still continue. Many attending are reliant
:11:03. > :11:15.on benefits which have faced cuts. Others do have jobs, but do not have
:11:16. > :11:17.enough to buy the basics. A month later a man I had seen in a
:11:18. > :11:29.supermarket turned up. later a man I had seen in a
:11:30. > :11:36.case that people are coming to you because the confidence is there? In
:11:37. > :11:42.some ways, yes. The recovery is not enough to raise living standards.
:11:43. > :11:46.The recovery here is expected to be slower than in any other part of the
:11:47. > :11:52.UK. Everything in economic is relative. If our economy is moving
:11:53. > :11:57.forwards slowly and everywhere else is moving faster, we are getting
:11:58. > :12:06.relatively poorer. Recession was bad, recovery may not be merry.
:12:07. > :12:10.Those green shoots of recovery are sometimes hard to spot. It is a cold
:12:11. > :12:25.Thursday morning on this community allotment. Darren works part-time as
:12:26. > :12:33.an assistant here. I am an my wage and it is low. You have to budget
:12:34. > :12:38.your money properly. The garden is a funded initiative in an area
:12:39. > :12:43.considered to be among the top 10% most deprived in Northern Ireland.
:12:44. > :12:55.Darren is now known as the working poor. The minimum wage is shocking.
:12:56. > :13:07.Anybody on the minimum wage will tell you that they are working to
:13:08. > :13:13.survive full stop the minimum wage is diabolical. You are going to
:13:14. > :13:21.struggle. What about friends of yours who may be an benefit. Do they
:13:22. > :13:28.appear to be the ones making the sensible choice? They get their rent
:13:29. > :13:35.paid for them. They do get more money. That is their perspective in
:13:36. > :13:42.life. I would rather go out and crashed. At least then you know you
:13:43. > :13:47.can go home at the end of the day and you have done a good bit of
:13:48. > :13:52.work. Continued funding for Darren 's position is not guaranteed. You
:13:53. > :13:57.may lose his job after Christmas was up the is keen to see what a job
:13:58. > :14:05.market supposedly on the up may hold for him.
:14:06. > :14:17.That is a flop plan inside. -- a floor plan inside. Employers have
:14:18. > :14:21.come to Belfast. Those looking for work have followed was at the big
:14:22. > :14:26.surprise of the recession was that unemployment did not rise even
:14:27. > :14:32.further. Many people took pay cuts and to ours rather than lose their
:14:33. > :14:38.jobs. Unemployment when measured against the dollar Q is falling. But
:14:39. > :14:44.not as fast as elsewhere for that we have the highest rate in the UK. The
:14:45. > :14:49.picture is especially bleak if you are part of the younger generation
:14:50. > :14:55.full stop a quarter of 18 to 24-year-olds are unemployed and that
:14:56. > :15:00.is up over the last year. Someone at the age of 16 is not going to have
:15:01. > :15:08.the experience. That is so much to do. I recently finished a Masters
:15:09. > :15:15.degree. I find there are few opportunities have there. But there
:15:16. > :15:23.are jobs to be found even in difficult times. This is the iconic
:15:24. > :15:33.route master bus, a success story built in Ballymena. It has attracted
:15:34. > :15:40.admirers as for its innovation to grow in difficult times. We have
:15:41. > :15:44.been fortunate to be awarded a contract to build 600 of these.
:15:45. > :15:53.been fortunate to be awarded a workers will be busy link these over
:15:54. > :15:56.the next few years. Overall, employment within our group of
:15:57. > :16:02.companies is at words of 1700 people now. At the main Assembly hall,
:16:03. > :16:08.about 600 of those putting the buses together in the final stages. This
:16:09. > :16:11.firm added another 700 people to the workforce during the recession. The
:16:12. > :16:19.key to growth was targeting overseas markets. We cannot take this model
:16:20. > :16:28.everywhere in the world. We know that. Others, we have to adapt the
:16:29. > :16:30.business from. We are shipping buses out in kit form and assembling them
:16:31. > :16:40.locally in places like Hong Kong. The route master has become
:16:41. > :16:49.something of an emblem for Northern Ireland and UK exports. You do not
:16:50. > :16:53.have to be a big player to do this. For some exporters, small is
:16:54. > :16:58.beautiful. This man spotted a gap in the market for a Luton three
:16:59. > :17:07.escapes. He's cells more in America than at home. The Internet has made
:17:08. > :17:13.the world a smaller place. You can speak to some of the N America just
:17:14. > :17:27.as handy as speaking to someone in Northern Ireland. The assumption is
:17:28. > :17:36.explored is for the big guys. You have the market in mainland Europe.
:17:37. > :17:41.I have biscuits in Las Vegas. It is no big deal. Northern Ireland can
:17:42. > :17:55.export. It is about tenacity and entered an airship. -- in the
:17:56. > :18:02.premiership. Sales growth like this is driving our recovery. Back at the
:18:03. > :18:08.jobs there, Darren is looking at some of the 1100 positions
:18:09. > :18:13.organisers say are on offer. Both the Westminster and Stormont
:18:14. > :18:26.government hope a recovering job market will help take people off
:18:27. > :18:37.benefits. Any sort of work. I am working at the minute. Others were
:18:38. > :18:41.also hoping to improve their wages. He may have 30 hours when weak and
:18:42. > :18:47.ten the next. It is not very dependable. Some experts are worried
:18:48. > :19:00.that so many find themselves in work but still struggling to make ends
:19:01. > :19:07.meet. That is concern about people at the sharp end of the wage scheme.
:19:08. > :19:12.One in four people are getting less than what is deemed to be the living
:19:13. > :19:13.wage. Going out to work means you do not have guaranteed
:19:14. > :19:17.wage. Going out to work means you do got up if the hours and less than
:19:18. > :19:25.what you need to have a big -- decent standard of living, then that
:19:26. > :19:29.is not making work pay. Neil Gibson argues that wages need to be
:19:30. > :19:36.competitive with risk doing more harm than good. We need to be
:19:37. > :19:39.realistic about what we think is a living wage for people here in
:19:40. > :19:44.Northern Ireland. If we look at people around the world who I can --
:19:45. > :19:48.producing goods, the living wage we are looking at is many multiples of
:19:49. > :19:53.what they can hope to achieve full stop the focus needs to be an
:19:54. > :20:01.driving down the costs of the things be at insurance, energy and
:20:02. > :20:13.property. There are people who will compete for as that for our jobs. --
:20:14. > :20:18.for our jobs. Political and business leaders came to a new tourist
:20:19. > :20:23.exhibition, Titanic Belfast. They both here for a conference on the
:20:24. > :20:28.direction of our economy. Investment is a priority for a Westminster
:20:29. > :20:32.government that intends to produce its public spending and Northern
:20:33. > :20:37.Ireland and lessen some of the burden on the UK taxpayer will stop
:20:38. > :20:43.David Cameron is banging the drum for tourism and investment here.
:20:44. > :20:48.This is a stunning exhibition, the biggest of its kind anywhere in the
:20:49. > :20:55.world and it added ?27 million to the Northern Ireland economy in its
:20:56. > :20:59.first year alone. Tourism brings outside money into the economy and
:21:00. > :21:12.Northern Ireland needs to attract as much as it can weather. This is a
:21:13. > :21:14.significant outpost for one of the largest law firms in the world. They
:21:15. > :21:24.have been hiding people in recent years. It is home town for many but
:21:25. > :21:31.others are just arriving. Our law firm is working all the time on an
:21:32. > :22:01.operation here in Belfast as well as elsewhere. We are in the middle of
:22:02. > :22:04.the night shift here this white-collar shift work is a glimpse
:22:05. > :22:11.of what the economy can look like here. With less public money around,
:22:12. > :22:21.the Giants are needed to drive the economy. A new Northern Ireland open
:22:22. > :22:26.for business, strengthening the foundations for peace and stability
:22:27. > :22:32.and prosperity. A new Northern Ireland determined to be defined not
:22:33. > :22:39.by its divided past by -- but by its shared future. Multi-million pound
:22:40. > :22:47.initiatives to boost tourism and the economy was suggest the future can
:22:48. > :22:56.be bright. But standing in its way, there's no doubt Northern Ireland
:22:57. > :23:03.can survive its path. This was the image of Northern Ireland broadcast
:23:04. > :23:09.to the world last year. Belfast city centre brought to a standstill by
:23:10. > :23:13.violent protests over a flag. Try explaining that the foreign
:23:14. > :23:21.investors. Open for business customer you have got to be joking.
:23:22. > :23:31.We have the" about the message we send to the world. This is where we
:23:32. > :23:41.make the software. He built and says software is to retailers. He has
:23:42. > :23:50.global customers and investors. They do not care that he is in Belfast
:23:51. > :23:57.and less Belfast becomes the story. We had investors from all over the
:23:58. > :24:00.world on a conference call and they could hear silence in the
:24:01. > :24:09.background. I tried not to mention it. -- sirens in the background.
:24:10. > :24:15.They will only take so much before they say it cannot work and it will
:24:16. > :24:24.go elsewhere. The flag protests are estimated to have cost the city in
:24:25. > :24:30.last trade. There was widespread disruption.
:24:31. > :24:41.This year, many are hoping to make up for lost earnings. Restaurant
:24:42. > :24:44.owner in the Dean has big plans. The business next door has moved out and
:24:45. > :24:51.he has spotted an opportunity for expansion. He has a string of
:24:52. > :25:03.restaurants in the first and implies 130 people. What the plan is is to
:25:04. > :25:06.cut a hole somewhere in this wall. He has raised the stakes on his
:25:07. > :25:11.Belfast death. His latest expansion will take place in the shadow of the
:25:12. > :25:18.first City Hall, the scene of last Christmas 's mayhem. It was a brutal
:25:19. > :25:25.time for business was up everybody will want it to go out to
:25:26. > :25:34.time for business was up everybody including the two black Christmases
:25:35. > :25:40.but we lost out on that. We cannot control the security situation. That
:25:41. > :25:42.is the biggest nightmare. Next month sees the first anniversary of the
:25:43. > :25:49.council vote on the flag. Those behind the protests have organised a
:25:50. > :25:54.major demonstration for the nurse leaders have pleaded for them to
:25:55. > :25:59.reconsider and have called for political leadership will stop I
:26:00. > :26:05.will not tell anybody if they have something that they are angry about
:26:06. > :26:26.that they should not notice. But about avoided altogether better Mac
:26:27. > :26:32.-- altogether? I would never say to anybody they should not protest.
:26:33. > :26:37.They have a right to protest. But to reflect on the time and place and
:26:38. > :26:42.nature of the protest because we cannot and do another Christmas in
:26:43. > :26:53.the centre of Belfast the way we had last year. At the leading political
:26:54. > :27:00.parties, if you are in the business community, you may understand there
:27:01. > :27:05.are precious but mean you cannot change the rate automatically. You
:27:06. > :27:10.cannot influence interest rates or inflation or the minimum wage and
:27:11. > :27:15.you cannot change most taxes but one thing they think you can influence
:27:16. > :27:21.it political stability was up on that measure, the leading parties in
:27:22. > :27:26.government here have failed? I do not accept that we have failed on
:27:27. > :27:36.political stability but we are now well into devolution. Many
:27:37. > :27:41.businesses that may have gone to the wall are still operating in Northern
:27:42. > :27:52.Ireland today. The flag issue is still a cause for concern. What
:27:53. > :27:58.about the role of politicians. The issue of political stability and
:27:59. > :28:08.what we had last year. We need to look to the future and be optimistic
:28:09. > :28:12.and positive. It is a challenge. The statistics tell us recovery is
:28:13. > :28:19.underway but will we all share the fruits of this new economy? You have
:28:20. > :28:29.to deal with things. Fingers crossed and then positive. Something
:28:30. > :28:34.positive may come out in the end. Hopefully, at some point soon,
:28:35. > :28:41.somebody will come along with the right money at the right time. We
:28:42. > :28:45.are through the worst of it. ABF is not moving as fast as we would like
:28:46. > :28:56.that it is better to be where we are today than we were a couple of years
:28:57. > :29:04.ago. We need to be careful. Try and look at things like spend and tax
:29:05. > :29:12.and do things more responsibly. This recovery will be more than just the
:29:13. > :29:21.fears about the crash and the future. We feel poorer because we
:29:22. > :29:27.are poorer. A feel-good factor may return but it will depend on
:29:28. > :29:30.hard-fought economic growth. The Christmas many others spent this
:29:31. > :29:35.year will be a first glimpse of the shape of things to come, not just
:29:36. > :29:37.for next year but for many more after that.