0:00:12 > 0:00:16Good evening. On Spotlight tonight we reflect on a big week
0:00:16 > 0:00:18in local and national politics.
0:00:18 > 0:00:21We've seen the laying to rest of Ian Paisley,
0:00:21 > 0:00:24a man who devoted his life - at least the political part of it -
0:00:24 > 0:00:25to the maintenance of the Union.
0:00:25 > 0:00:28Tomorrow that union could be irrevocable severed,
0:00:28 > 0:00:31not by the success of Irish nationalism,
0:00:31 > 0:00:35Paisley's eternal nightmare, but by the decision of the Scottish people.
0:00:35 > 0:00:38Meanwhile, the achievement which has brought Mr Paisley
0:00:38 > 0:00:40most praise since his death,
0:00:40 > 0:00:43the setting up of a power-sharing government with Sinn Fein,
0:00:43 > 0:00:46looks increasingly under threat with his successor, Peter Robinson,
0:00:46 > 0:00:50warning that Stormont is no longer fit for purpose.
0:00:50 > 0:00:54Tonight we reflect on all of this but we begin with Ian Paisley,
0:00:54 > 0:00:57as history begins to decide if his overall contribution
0:00:57 > 0:01:00to Northern Ireland was beneficial or malign.
0:01:00 > 0:01:03Declan Lawn assesses his life and times.
0:01:10 > 0:01:13A colossus who thrived on conflict,
0:01:13 > 0:01:15both religious...
0:01:15 > 0:01:19Believe in the Lord Jesus Christ
0:01:19 > 0:01:24and thou shalt be saved!
0:01:24 > 0:01:26..and political.
0:01:26 > 0:01:28Fellow Loyalists,
0:01:28 > 0:01:31we meet today
0:01:31 > 0:01:35in the most grave of circumstances.
0:01:35 > 0:01:41And the future of this state is at stake.
0:01:41 > 0:01:43But all that changed.
0:01:43 > 0:01:46That was yesterday.
0:01:46 > 0:01:48This is today.
0:01:48 > 0:01:50And tomorrow will be tomorrow.
0:01:52 > 0:01:58I believe Northern Ireland has come to a time of peace.
0:01:58 > 0:02:02Ian Paisley's progress from political outsider
0:02:02 > 0:02:05and religious firebrand to become the leader of Unionism
0:02:05 > 0:02:09and ultimately First Minister was a remarkable one.
0:02:09 > 0:02:12And this place, the stage of the Ulster Hall in Belfast,
0:02:12 > 0:02:16played its own part, because it was from here in the very earliest days
0:02:16 > 0:02:18that he would address religious meetings,
0:02:18 > 0:02:23and it was clear from the outset that his was voice to be reckoned with.
0:02:23 > 0:02:27Whether you be a Protestant or a Romanist,
0:02:27 > 0:02:33whether you be a Jew or belong to any other religion,
0:02:33 > 0:02:37whether you be an Hibernian or an Orangeman,
0:02:37 > 0:02:40whether you be religious or irreligious,
0:02:40 > 0:02:42it matters not.
0:02:42 > 0:02:48You were born naturally as a child of wrath.
0:02:51 > 0:02:55It was as a preacher that Paisley first rose to prominence
0:02:55 > 0:02:57in the 1950s.
0:02:58 > 0:03:02Ordained at age 20, by the time he was 25
0:03:02 > 0:03:06he had established the Free Presbyterian Church.
0:03:06 > 0:03:08In the Mass...
0:03:08 > 0:03:13His firebrand fundamentalism won him a large and loyal congregation,
0:03:13 > 0:03:15and also plenty of enemies.
0:03:15 > 0:03:19I want to say that this wafer,
0:03:19 > 0:03:22after it is consecrated,
0:03:22 > 0:03:24the Church of Rome teaches
0:03:24 > 0:03:30it is the actual body, bones, blood...
0:03:30 > 0:03:32CONGREGATION LAUGHS
0:03:32 > 0:03:35..of Jesus Christ.
0:03:35 > 0:03:39Had he restricted himself to preaching, Ian Paisley might have
0:03:39 > 0:03:42become little more than a footnote in the history of his country.
0:03:44 > 0:03:49But with Ian Paisley, politics was also a calling.
0:03:51 > 0:03:55By the late 1960s he was already a formidable political force.
0:03:55 > 0:04:00His congregation had become a constituency.
0:04:00 > 0:04:03He had a tremendous charisma and was a brilliant orator,
0:04:03 > 0:04:07you know, in the style of kind of demagogic orators of the past.
0:04:07 > 0:04:11And he appealed to that kind of heart of Ulster Presbyterian
0:04:11 > 0:04:13fundamentalism.
0:04:13 > 0:04:16From the outset he was never far from controversy,
0:04:16 > 0:04:20or from accusations that his rhetoric was responsible for violence.
0:04:35 > 0:04:38He clearly was a very persuasive speaker.
0:04:38 > 0:04:41I mean, he had enormous gifts of oratory.
0:04:41 > 0:04:44I said to him on one occasion that I recognised the fact that God
0:04:44 > 0:04:46had given him great gifts, but I said to him,
0:04:46 > 0:04:50"The question is, what use are you going to make of these great gifts?
0:04:50 > 0:04:52"Are you simply going to be a perpetuation of that which
0:04:52 > 0:04:56"you have inherited, or are you going to be able to do something
0:04:56 > 0:04:59"totally different and very constructive with these gifts
0:04:59 > 0:05:02"and be able to lead the Unionist and Protestant community
0:05:02 > 0:05:05"into an accommodation with the majority of people in Ireland?"
0:05:05 > 0:05:08Are you hoping to avoid violence at your meetings now, Mr Paisley?
0:05:08 > 0:05:11There never was any violence at our meetings.
0:05:11 > 0:05:14Never any violence. Our people are not violent people.
0:05:14 > 0:05:19To many, Ian Paisley's uncompromising hard-line stance was an antidote
0:05:19 > 0:05:23to what they saw as weakness at the heart of official Unionism.
0:05:25 > 0:05:28It's all very well now to talk about Unionists in a siege mentality,
0:05:28 > 0:05:31but the reality is we were living in a period
0:05:31 > 0:05:33when the Union was in doubt.
0:05:33 > 0:05:37And Paisley was the man at that point who was actually capturing
0:05:37 > 0:05:39all of those fears, all of those emotions.
0:05:39 > 0:05:41Some people would say Ian Paisley
0:05:41 > 0:05:44was responsible for a large part of the trouble,
0:05:44 > 0:05:47through his street protests and stuff, but they're ignoring
0:05:47 > 0:05:50the things he was protesting against,
0:05:50 > 0:05:54and Paisley always said, if you're under siege,
0:05:54 > 0:05:58the best sort of mentality to have is a siege mentality.
0:05:58 > 0:06:00..members of the Dail,
0:06:00 > 0:06:03you shall not rule over us!
0:06:03 > 0:06:07We are saying no surrender!
0:06:07 > 0:06:10CHEERING
0:06:10 > 0:06:15He may not have led Unionism then, but at its defining moments,
0:06:15 > 0:06:18Paisley's was often the voice that rang out loudest.
0:06:18 > 0:06:23In the mid 1980s, the issue was the Anglo-Irish Agreement.
0:06:23 > 0:06:25Ian Paisley rose to the occasion
0:06:25 > 0:06:27in one of the seminal speeches of his career.
0:06:27 > 0:06:30We say never!
0:06:30 > 0:06:35Never! Never! Never!
0:06:35 > 0:06:36CHEERING
0:06:40 > 0:06:42At times, his protests crossed the line
0:06:42 > 0:06:46between constitutional politics and threat.
0:06:47 > 0:06:51In 1986, he addressed a gathering of Ulster Resistance,
0:06:51 > 0:06:55an organisation which had promised to defend Ulster by any means
0:06:55 > 0:06:57in the event of a British sell-out.
0:07:15 > 0:07:19In his powerful oratory, in his rejection...
0:07:19 > 0:07:21violently, rhetorically,
0:07:21 > 0:07:24of Catholicism and Irish nationalism,
0:07:24 > 0:07:29he was a caricature, almost, of the reasons why Republicans
0:07:29 > 0:07:32believed their campaign was necessary.
0:07:32 > 0:07:37He confirmed to so many that the state of Northern Ireland was
0:07:37 > 0:07:41irreformable, and that the only way was a united Ireland,
0:07:41 > 0:07:44because Unionism could not be changed.
0:07:44 > 0:07:46The state of Northern Ireland had to be rejected.
0:07:46 > 0:07:48It was personified in Ian Paisley.
0:07:48 > 0:07:52In the 1990s, when Republicans and Unionists
0:07:52 > 0:07:54finally reached an agreement,
0:07:54 > 0:07:58it seemed as if Paisleyism as a political force was on the wane.
0:08:00 > 0:08:03- We're to got home, he says. - Well, what can you do?
0:08:03 > 0:08:08At the peace talks of 1998, he seemed marginalised,
0:08:08 > 0:08:12hecklers accusing him of inciting loyalists and then abandoning them.
0:08:13 > 0:08:17- Ian, where you going to take us? - The Grand Old Duke of York!
0:08:17 > 0:08:19ALL SHOUT
0:08:19 > 0:08:22It appeared as if history had got the better of Ian Paisley.
0:08:22 > 0:08:25But Ian Paisley had other ideas.
0:08:25 > 0:08:29You have to get these people out now.
0:08:29 > 0:08:32Few people could have imagined the remarkable political comeback
0:08:32 > 0:08:35that was to play out over the following decade.
0:08:35 > 0:08:37Ian Paisley was politically astute.
0:08:37 > 0:08:42He was able to capitalise on Unionist doubts about the peace process
0:08:42 > 0:08:44and then lead his own party into it
0:08:44 > 0:08:47and strike a remarkable deal with Sinn Fein.
0:08:47 > 0:08:53His record is that he castigated, ridiculed and ultimately destroyed
0:08:53 > 0:08:59any Unionist leader who strayed from the doctrinaire Unionist line.
0:08:59 > 0:09:04Faulkner, O'Neill, Trimble, all humiliated, brushed aside.
0:09:04 > 0:09:09Any possibility of compromise with nationalists in the north
0:09:09 > 0:09:11was removed.
0:09:11 > 0:09:14ALL CHANTING: Cheerio! Cheerio! Cheerio!
0:09:14 > 0:09:17And then, obviously, ironically,
0:09:17 > 0:09:22at a quarter to midnight in his own life, he decided to seal the deal
0:09:22 > 0:09:27with Republicans and close the chapter on his past.
0:09:27 > 0:09:31For some of his most loyal supporters, the shock was too much.
0:09:31 > 0:09:35I'm upset, because everything we have been taught
0:09:35 > 0:09:38has been turned right round and stood on its head.
0:09:38 > 0:09:42Quite clearly, the electorate believed the previous utterances
0:09:42 > 0:09:46of Ian Paisley that he would never be sitting in government
0:09:46 > 0:09:50with Sinn Fein. I think that this was the greatest fraud
0:09:50 > 0:09:52perpetrated upon the Unionist community.
0:09:52 > 0:09:55But for those in favour of the Agreement,
0:09:55 > 0:09:59Paisley's shift was a triumph of bravery.
0:09:59 > 0:10:02He was at times very slow,
0:10:02 > 0:10:06and then at times very courageous and very fast.
0:10:06 > 0:10:11And in the end, he in a sense leapt over his party much to the anxiety
0:10:11 > 0:10:15and nervousness and opposition and criticism of some in the DUP ranks
0:10:15 > 0:10:17to make this courageous leap.
0:10:17 > 0:10:22And I don't think anybody else in Unionism could have done that.
0:10:22 > 0:10:25Even the hostility of the early years
0:10:25 > 0:10:28to leaders from the Republic had melted away.
0:10:28 > 0:10:31They wouldn't have thought that the person who threw snowballs
0:10:31 > 0:10:34would be the person who would be prepared to welcome
0:10:34 > 0:10:38that accommodation which involved our relationship between
0:10:38 > 0:10:39the north and the south.
0:10:39 > 0:10:43And he would go down to the Boyne and shake the hands of Bertie Ahern
0:10:43 > 0:10:46in such an enthusiastic way, which is kind of an iconic moment.
0:10:46 > 0:10:50There are certain images which are very powerful images
0:10:50 > 0:10:52and they not only describe what's happening,
0:10:52 > 0:10:55they actually shape and influence what's happening.
0:10:55 > 0:10:57And those kinds of handshakes
0:10:57 > 0:11:00and that kind of cooperation of Martin McGuinness
0:11:00 > 0:11:06move things on in a constructive and helpful kind of way.
0:11:06 > 0:11:10At the end of his life he was a solution to
0:11:10 > 0:11:13the problem that he had, himself, helped to cause.
0:11:13 > 0:11:15But that wasn't all.
0:11:15 > 0:11:17The personal warmth of his relationship with
0:11:17 > 0:11:21Martin McGuinness made headlines all over the world.
0:11:21 > 0:11:24That warmth may have helped steady the peace process.
0:11:24 > 0:11:29No change. Not an inch and no surrender.
0:11:29 > 0:11:32But it also contributed to Ian Paisley's undoing.
0:11:32 > 0:11:35A year after striking a deal with Sinn Fein,
0:11:35 > 0:11:39Paisley had been pushed aside by his party and deposed by his church.
0:11:39 > 0:11:43His family even stopped attending the church he had founded.
0:11:43 > 0:11:47Our hearts were all broken for Ian.
0:11:47 > 0:11:53The children and myself as well,
0:11:53 > 0:11:55and I felt he had been deeply wounded
0:11:55 > 0:11:58in the house of his friends,
0:11:58 > 0:12:03and I just felt that it was really iniquitous of them, and a really
0:12:03 > 0:12:10dreadful, hurtful, nasty, ungodly, un-Christian thing to do.
0:12:10 > 0:12:15Stability at Stormont may have been Ian Paisley's great achievement,
0:12:15 > 0:12:19but even at the hour of his death, that had come into question.
0:12:19 > 0:12:24We shouldn't underestimate the deal that he eventually signed up to,
0:12:24 > 0:12:29but part of his legacy is also that he didn't prepare
0:12:29 > 0:12:33and he didn't condition his people to that compromise
0:12:33 > 0:12:36and to what that would entail.
0:12:36 > 0:12:40After having done the deal at St Andrews,
0:12:40 > 0:12:42he would then lose his church,
0:12:42 > 0:12:45he would then lose the leadership of his own party,
0:12:45 > 0:12:48and he would leave Unionism in the rudderless,
0:12:48 > 0:12:51fractious state that it is today.
0:12:51 > 0:12:55Ian Paisley loomed large over the conflict in Northern Ireland
0:12:55 > 0:12:56and its conclusion.
0:12:56 > 0:13:00The question for history is whether he will be remembered for
0:13:00 > 0:13:03the final act of his life or the turmoil that came before.
0:13:04 > 0:13:07Ian Paisley's political legacy is power sharing
0:13:07 > 0:13:09in a devolved assembly at Stormont.
0:13:09 > 0:13:12Though the dominant parties the DUP
0:13:12 > 0:13:14and Sinn Fein have drawn battle lines
0:13:14 > 0:13:16which threaten to destroy what's been built over
0:13:16 > 0:13:18the last seven years.
0:13:18 > 0:13:21Jennifer O'Leary considers the obstacles to progress.
0:13:31 > 0:13:34A day and a deal, decades in the making.
0:13:34 > 0:13:38To some, it was Ian Paisley's finest hour.
0:13:38 > 0:13:44How good it will be to be part of a wonderful healing in this province.
0:13:44 > 0:13:50Today, we have begun, we have begun the work aplenty.
0:13:50 > 0:13:55And we will all look forward for the great and blessed harvest.
0:13:55 > 0:13:56Thank you.
0:13:56 > 0:13:58APPLAUSE
0:13:59 > 0:14:02But it hasn't quite worked out like that.
0:14:05 > 0:14:09Seven years on and many now question what the administration
0:14:09 > 0:14:11has actually achieved.
0:14:11 > 0:14:13Stormont appears deadlocked.
0:14:13 > 0:14:17At the heart of the matter is the problem of what happens when
0:14:17 > 0:14:21the partners sharing power cannot agree on a way forward.
0:14:21 > 0:14:24A far cry from the early days of promise.
0:14:24 > 0:14:26It's led the First Minister to describe
0:14:26 > 0:14:31the arrangements for devolved government here as dysfunctional.
0:14:31 > 0:14:35When Peter Robinson took over, there was plenty of money about.
0:14:35 > 0:14:37But then, the property bubble burst.
0:14:37 > 0:14:39So they were already coming into difficult decisions,
0:14:39 > 0:14:43not just smiling together and slapping each other in the back,
0:14:43 > 0:14:48there had to be difficult economic decisions, and that got worse.
0:14:48 > 0:14:51Worst of all is the question of welfare reform.
0:14:51 > 0:14:55Both Sinn Fein and the DUP oppose Westminster cuts,
0:14:55 > 0:14:59but can't agree what to do about them.
0:14:59 > 0:15:03We now have an issue which simply cannot be left on the shelf.
0:15:03 > 0:15:05It's one that has to be dealt with,
0:15:05 > 0:15:10because we simply cannot afford, in terms of welfare reform,
0:15:10 > 0:15:14to lift up the tab of £1 billion a year,
0:15:14 > 0:15:20when we only have a budget for resource expenditure of £10 billion.
0:15:20 > 0:15:23Failure to implement the cuts will see Northern Ireland
0:15:23 > 0:15:27face increasing penalties in the form of fines by the Treasury.
0:15:27 > 0:15:28This is very difficult.
0:15:28 > 0:15:32You cannot go on spending money the way we've been spending money
0:15:32 > 0:15:36when we know that the welfare reform penalties are coming,
0:15:36 > 0:15:39and that there will be Sinn Fein imposed cuts on the parties
0:15:39 > 0:15:42and on the departments right across. That is a serious issue.
0:15:42 > 0:15:47I believe, if welfare reform or welfare cuts is
0:15:47 > 0:15:49the trigger for any collapse of the institutions,
0:15:49 > 0:15:52and we are not asking for a collapse by way of the institutions,
0:15:52 > 0:15:55we would be very disappointed that has to be the case,
0:15:55 > 0:15:58but if people want to use that,
0:15:58 > 0:16:02then I believe it's a surrogate reason for the collapse.
0:16:02 > 0:16:05I think there are parties who are struggling, and I think
0:16:05 > 0:16:09they might want to exploit the issue of the welfare cuts.
0:16:09 > 0:16:13The increasingly fractious nature of Northern Ireland politics
0:16:13 > 0:16:18clearly reflects a breakdown in trust between the two main parties.
0:16:18 > 0:16:22Stormont has been dogged by community tensions over flags and parading,
0:16:22 > 0:16:25and, in particular, on dealing with the past.
0:16:27 > 0:16:30There have been a whole series of matters in key areas
0:16:30 > 0:16:34like education and health, where the decision making progress
0:16:34 > 0:16:35appeared very strained
0:16:35 > 0:16:39and very hard to follow from a distance.
0:16:39 > 0:16:42You would certainly have to look at the Maze/Long Kesh project because,
0:16:42 > 0:16:46although the DUP were never overly keen on it, it was
0:16:46 > 0:16:49very, very important to the whole Sinn Fein project.
0:16:49 > 0:16:51They were determined that it would go ahead.
0:16:51 > 0:16:54They believed they had a deal, that it would go ahead.
0:16:54 > 0:16:56It was all part of a wider trade-off there.
0:16:56 > 0:16:59So, when the plug was pulled on it in such dramatic circumstances,
0:16:59 > 0:17:01that was a fairly dramatic confirmation
0:17:01 > 0:17:04that things were not as they should be.
0:17:05 > 0:17:09Martin McGuinness recently suggested that a so-called Gang of Nine
0:17:09 > 0:17:14within the DUP forced Peter Robinson to renege on the Maze development.
0:17:14 > 0:17:18This is bunkum, this is just nonsense speculation.
0:17:18 > 0:17:22He doesn't know the internal workings of the DUP.
0:17:22 > 0:17:24So, I simply cast that aside.
0:17:24 > 0:17:26Let's get back on the real issue which is
0:17:26 > 0:17:28the fact that we have a difficulty,
0:17:28 > 0:17:31we have a serious issue regarding welfare reform,
0:17:31 > 0:17:35and the implications for the budget in Northern Ireland.
0:17:37 > 0:17:41But as with the DUP's political concerns about the Maze project,
0:17:41 > 0:17:44observers perceive Sinn Fein's internal politics
0:17:44 > 0:17:49holding a major sway over the current impasse over welfare reform.
0:17:49 > 0:17:53In the south, they're criticising the government of the day
0:17:53 > 0:17:58for making cuts and introducing austerities, and saying, "This
0:17:58 > 0:18:03"isn't necessary, we could spend our way out of this," basically.
0:18:03 > 0:18:06And then, if they are seen to introduce similar austerities in
0:18:06 > 0:18:09the north, water charges would be an example,
0:18:09 > 0:18:11they're against it in the south.
0:18:11 > 0:18:14The other parties will accuse them of hypocrisy.
0:18:14 > 0:18:18The First Minister's recent statement that Stormont isn't working
0:18:18 > 0:18:22has pushed the failures of the assembly centre stage.
0:18:22 > 0:18:26In many ways, I would say that it is almost a relief that
0:18:26 > 0:18:28Peter Robinson has openly acknowledged
0:18:28 > 0:18:30the depth of the problems which are being faced at Stormont.
0:18:30 > 0:18:34Because for many years, for a long period, not just the DUP,
0:18:34 > 0:18:37but the other main parties at Stormont would have said that
0:18:37 > 0:18:38there are minor difficulties.
0:18:38 > 0:18:41But, generally speaking, we have made spectacular progress,
0:18:41 > 0:18:44we are doing wonderful work, apart from a few critics on the fringes.
0:18:44 > 0:18:46We are proceeding as we should do.
0:18:46 > 0:18:51When it was absolutely clear, not just to observers in the press,
0:18:51 > 0:18:54but also to the general public, that things were not working,
0:18:54 > 0:18:57that this was effectively a dysfunctional administration.
0:18:57 > 0:19:02The question now is do Sinn Fein and the DUP have the ability
0:19:02 > 0:19:05and the political will to agree a way forward,
0:19:05 > 0:19:09or will they simply blame each other for failure?
0:19:09 > 0:19:12The real issue is about the intransigence of Sinn Fein.
0:19:12 > 0:19:16There seems to be just a total resistance on the part of
0:19:16 > 0:19:18Sinn Fein to face up to the reality.
0:19:18 > 0:19:21Well, anybody who says that they can't work power sharing,
0:19:21 > 0:19:24in my view, they are not applying themselves.
0:19:24 > 0:19:25They are not fit for the purpose.
0:19:25 > 0:19:29They can be, and they should be, and, in fact, they do need to be.
0:19:29 > 0:19:32I mean, Ian Paisley opposed the Good Friday Agreement, resolutely.
0:19:32 > 0:19:35Ian Paisley campaigned against it.
0:19:35 > 0:19:39But ultimately, eventually, when negotiations were concluded,
0:19:39 > 0:19:41he became the First Minister.
0:19:41 > 0:19:43Peter Robinson has followed him on as the First Minister.
0:19:43 > 0:19:46He needs to embrace the political institutions
0:19:46 > 0:19:48and make them applicable,
0:19:48 > 0:19:50because the institutions are fit for purpose,
0:19:50 > 0:19:53and Peter doesn't work them in the way in which he needs to,
0:19:53 > 0:19:55then he needs to ask himself, is he fit for purpose?
0:19:56 > 0:19:58So what now?
0:19:58 > 0:20:02With Stormont apparently gridlocked, there is talk on the horizon of
0:20:02 > 0:20:06another new round of talks being led by the British and Irish governments.
0:20:06 > 0:20:10Because, as the days grow shorter, so too does the likelihood
0:20:10 > 0:20:15of the main parties brokering a deal on welfare change and a budget.
0:20:18 > 0:20:21If Ian Paisley's blessed harvest is looking rather
0:20:21 > 0:20:23full of weeds at the moment, in Scotland,
0:20:23 > 0:20:26voters might be about to take a big scythe to the Union.
0:20:26 > 0:20:30The Yes and No camps in the referendum are neck-and-neck
0:20:30 > 0:20:31but, whichever way the vote goes,
0:20:31 > 0:20:34the repercussions will be felt in Northern Ireland,
0:20:34 > 0:20:36as Ciaran Tracey has been finding out.
0:20:42 > 0:20:45A message writ large over West Belfast -
0:20:45 > 0:20:49about a referendum taking place in Scotland.
0:20:50 > 0:20:52But why does it matter here?
0:20:52 > 0:20:54Scotland is about to decide
0:20:54 > 0:20:57whether or not to walk away from the United Kingdom,
0:20:57 > 0:20:59and whatever way the vote goes on Thursday,
0:20:59 > 0:21:03the implications for the Union here are profound.
0:21:03 > 0:21:05Many here are nervous.
0:21:05 > 0:21:09These County Antrim Orangemen were up at the crack of dawn this weekend
0:21:09 > 0:21:13for a flight to Edinburgh, joining a huge parade backing a no vote.
0:21:13 > 0:21:16I think it's important from the point of view that we show
0:21:16 > 0:21:20solidarity with the brethren in Scotland. I think it would have
0:21:20 > 0:21:24big ramifications for us here in Northern Ireland
0:21:24 > 0:21:26if Scotland voted yes.
0:21:26 > 0:21:29I would see it as a massive threat to the Union.
0:21:29 > 0:21:32Five or six years ago I was in Edinburgh for something
0:21:32 > 0:21:34the same on the Act of Union.
0:21:34 > 0:21:39And I don't think the government took it serious enough at that time.
0:21:39 > 0:21:42And now, this is the result of it.
0:21:43 > 0:21:46The momentum gathered by the Yes campaign in Scotland
0:21:46 > 0:21:49has taken everyone by surprise.
0:21:49 > 0:21:52And Northern Irish Unionists, ever alert to the threat from
0:21:52 > 0:21:54Irish Republicanism, now find themselves
0:21:54 > 0:21:57confronted by the possibility that a break-up
0:21:57 > 0:22:01of the Union might come from their own kith and kin.
0:22:01 > 0:22:04The unsettling and unnerving effect that a division in this
0:22:04 > 0:22:06wonderful union would have, that it would get
0:22:06 > 0:22:10the tails up of Irish Republicans in my part of the kingdom,
0:22:10 > 0:22:14and would drive another wedge into the hearts and souls
0:22:14 > 0:22:16of people in Ulster.
0:22:16 > 0:22:18I think that one of the things that has happened is that
0:22:18 > 0:22:22Northern Unionists have realised - very late in the day -
0:22:22 > 0:22:25this could have more profound implications for us
0:22:25 > 0:22:27than it actually has for Scotland.
0:22:27 > 0:22:29And it has taken them a long time to catch up on that.
0:22:31 > 0:22:34At their closest points, there's only something like
0:22:34 > 0:22:37ten miles of water between Northern Ireland and Scotland.
0:22:37 > 0:22:39But they feel so much closer,
0:22:39 > 0:22:42and that's because of a shared history and a shared heritage.
0:22:42 > 0:22:45But this vote calls into question that shared identity.
0:22:45 > 0:22:49And, of course, that's particularly difficult for the Unionist community.
0:22:49 > 0:22:52The short journey across the Irish Sea has long been made
0:22:52 > 0:22:56by Orangemen, back and forth between the two countries for marches.
0:22:57 > 0:23:00Last Saturday, the Orange Order's top brass from Northern Ireland
0:23:00 > 0:23:04were also making the trip to what they believed could be
0:23:04 > 0:23:07one of the most important marches they've ever attended -
0:23:07 > 0:23:09opposing the vote for Scottish independence.
0:23:11 > 0:23:13It would be like losing a member of the family in many ways.
0:23:13 > 0:23:16And, yes, you would survive and it would continue,
0:23:16 > 0:23:19but the United Kingdom wouldn't be the same again.
0:23:19 > 0:23:21If it is a yes vote, surely it must be
0:23:21 > 0:23:24the case that we are incrementally closer to a united Ireland?
0:23:24 > 0:23:26Not necessarily. It will probably strengthen
0:23:26 > 0:23:29the resolve within the Unionist people to work against that.
0:23:29 > 0:23:30But other passengers on this boat
0:23:30 > 0:23:33want a different future for their homeland.
0:23:33 > 0:23:34I think you have to take the risk,
0:23:34 > 0:23:37you have to take the jump in order to get the benefits.
0:23:37 > 0:23:39There's just no other way, apart from staying the way we are.
0:23:39 > 0:23:41It's clearly not working the way it is.
0:23:41 > 0:23:45I genuinely believe it would be better off independent
0:23:45 > 0:23:48than it would with devolution.
0:23:48 > 0:23:50We have no option, we've got to vote yes.
0:23:50 > 0:23:53We've been an independent country for 1,000 years,
0:23:53 > 0:23:55except for the last 300.
0:23:55 > 0:23:58It's our time. I hope the Scottish people back it.
0:23:58 > 0:24:02The polls are tight. At this point in time, no-one can call it.
0:24:02 > 0:24:05And even if the no vote wins through on Thursday,
0:24:05 > 0:24:09this referendum has been such a close-run thing that the landscape
0:24:09 > 0:24:12has undoubtedly changed forever.
0:24:12 > 0:24:15Even if the Union is victorious in the referendum,
0:24:15 > 0:24:18it will be such a narrow thing it will look much more fragile
0:24:18 > 0:24:20than it has done hitherto. If the Union looks less durable,
0:24:20 > 0:24:22then that's judged to be good for Sinn Fein.
0:24:22 > 0:24:25Back in February, Gerry Adams set out the situation as he saw it.
0:24:27 > 0:24:30It's now quite clear that the so-called United Kingdom
0:24:30 > 0:24:32is held together by a thread.
0:24:32 > 0:24:38And that thread can be unravelled, either as a result of referenda
0:24:38 > 0:24:40in Scotland or elsewhere.
0:24:40 > 0:24:43Not if 10,000 Orange supporters gathered in Edinburgh
0:24:43 > 0:24:46last Saturday have anything to do with it.
0:24:46 > 0:24:50The parade was organised as a massive show of loyalty to the Union.
0:24:50 > 0:24:51And, in this field at least,
0:24:51 > 0:24:55the Orange Order was preaching to the converted.
0:24:55 > 0:24:57Our strength in numbers here today not only
0:24:57 > 0:25:00demonstrates our commitment to the cause, but also our
0:25:00 > 0:25:03grave concern at the imminent threat
0:25:03 > 0:25:05to the Union that we all hold so dear.
0:25:05 > 0:25:08Coming together to defend the Union should have been wee buns.
0:25:08 > 0:25:13In reality, it hasn't been that simple because, even though they're
0:25:13 > 0:25:16on the same side, the Better Together campaign - made up of the parties
0:25:16 > 0:25:20seeking a no vote - doesn't want anything to do with the Orange Order.
0:25:20 > 0:25:24And they've gone out of their way to distance themselves from the march.
0:25:24 > 0:25:27I think they are concerned that the Orange Order is not
0:25:27 > 0:25:29something that they want to be associated with.
0:25:29 > 0:25:32They don't want to open the Pandora's box
0:25:32 > 0:25:34of sectarianism, essentially, so they've tried to
0:25:34 > 0:25:36distance themselves from it as much as they can.
0:25:36 > 0:25:38David Clegg of The Daily Record,
0:25:38 > 0:25:40Scotland's Labour-supporting paper,
0:25:40 > 0:25:43says the Better Together campaign had bigger priorities
0:25:43 > 0:25:46than appealing to Scotland's connections with Ulster.
0:25:46 > 0:25:48If you ask them why have you not make more of an
0:25:48 > 0:25:50emotional argument for the Union, they'll say it's not
0:25:50 > 0:25:52because there's not an emotional argument to be made,
0:25:52 > 0:25:55it's not because Scots don't believe in the Union
0:25:55 > 0:25:57and feel those emotional binds, it's because we're
0:25:57 > 0:25:59focusing relentlessly on undecided voters.
0:25:59 > 0:26:00This emotional argument,
0:26:00 > 0:26:02these ties, have not really featured that heavily.
0:26:02 > 0:26:06Perhaps that is one of the reasons that alarm bells
0:26:06 > 0:26:07over Scottish independence took so long
0:26:07 > 0:26:11to ring in the ears of Unionists in Northern Ireland.
0:26:11 > 0:26:13But now, they're ringing. Loud and clear.
0:26:15 > 0:26:18Belfast loyalist Sam McCrory views this vote as
0:26:18 > 0:26:21the greatest challenge the Union has ever faced.
0:26:21 > 0:26:22I've done my fighting back home,
0:26:22 > 0:26:26and I'm prepared to fight again back home, so I am.
0:26:26 > 0:26:30But this is on a new level over here.
0:26:30 > 0:26:32If it got to the stage where we weren't part
0:26:32 > 0:26:35of the United Kingdom any more, I dread to think,
0:26:35 > 0:26:38I can't even think what might occur for you and I,
0:26:38 > 0:26:40for our kids and for our kids' kids.
0:26:42 > 0:26:46So the Orangemen march, to maintain the Union that's now in jeopardy.
0:26:46 > 0:26:49But for one Scottish voter at least, the link with Northern Ireland
0:26:49 > 0:26:52itself simply doesn't feature in his decision-making.
0:26:52 > 0:26:55I'm voting yes because I believe
0:26:55 > 0:26:58it's what the people of Scotland want.
0:26:58 > 0:27:00How do you think Northern Ireland would feel,
0:27:00 > 0:27:03because there's a proud Ulster-Scots heritage there?
0:27:03 > 0:27:06That's not our problem, is it? Is that being unfair?
0:27:06 > 0:27:09It's not our problem, you know.
0:27:09 > 0:27:11The outcome is unknown.
0:27:11 > 0:27:14But what's certain is that the vote will have a long-term effect
0:27:14 > 0:27:15on Northern Ireland, whatever the result.
0:27:17 > 0:27:21No matter what happens this Thursday, Ulster Unionism
0:27:21 > 0:27:22is going to fragment further.
0:27:22 > 0:27:26And that has got great implications for the future of Stormont,
0:27:26 > 0:27:29and for the relationships, the numerical and relative strength
0:27:29 > 0:27:33of the main nationalist party and the main Unionist party.
0:27:33 > 0:27:35I think if Scotland does leave the UK,
0:27:35 > 0:27:38then, for Unionists, there will be a time for reflection.
0:27:38 > 0:27:41I don't think Unionism will be unable to recover from it, but it
0:27:41 > 0:27:45will be a blow to which they will have to respond in imaginative ways.
0:27:45 > 0:27:47So this is the end of the parade today,
0:27:47 > 0:27:50as it passes the Scottish Parliament behind me, which,
0:27:50 > 0:27:53whatever the outcome of this referendum, is changing.
0:27:53 > 0:27:56The question is, what will these changes mean for Northern Ireland?
0:27:57 > 0:28:00And that's all from this edition of Spotlight.
0:28:00 > 0:28:01Thank you for watching, good night.