0:19:48 > 0:19:51The big European Union debate has begun
0:19:51 > 0:19:53and the big guns are in town.
0:19:53 > 0:19:55It will be decided
0:19:55 > 0:19:57by the people of the United Kingdom.
0:19:59 > 0:20:04The real opportunity is to strike new trade deals around the world
0:20:04 > 0:20:06and get rid of the dead hand of the EU.
0:20:06 > 0:20:09We are totally opposed to any exit from Europe.
0:20:09 > 0:20:12Europe needs fundamental reforms, and if we were to vote today,
0:20:12 > 0:20:14we would leave the European Union.
0:20:19 > 0:20:22It's 41 years since the UK last had a say
0:20:22 > 0:20:25on its membership of the European Union.
0:20:25 > 0:20:27I believe that it's in the interest
0:20:27 > 0:20:29of both the UK as a whole,
0:20:29 > 0:20:31and of Northern Ireland itself,
0:20:31 > 0:20:34that we should remain a member of the European community.
0:20:37 > 0:20:41Back then, the UK as a whole opted to remain by a margin of 2-1.
0:20:41 > 0:20:43CHEERING
0:20:45 > 0:20:50Northern Ireland, in the midst of conflict, also voted to remain,
0:20:50 > 0:20:55but by a much narrower margin - 52% to 48% in favour.
0:20:56 > 0:20:59It is D-Day in the battle
0:20:59 > 0:21:04of a British resurgence based not on isolation,
0:21:04 > 0:21:07but on enthusiastic co-operation.
0:21:10 > 0:21:12This campervan rolled off the production line
0:21:12 > 0:21:14just after the last referendum.
0:21:14 > 0:21:1840 years on, I am taking it on the road to talk to people
0:21:18 > 0:21:23about how the European Union affects them and their families' lives.
0:21:23 > 0:21:25I will find out about political relationships,
0:21:25 > 0:21:28about how this referendum could affect politics
0:21:28 > 0:21:30in Northern Ireland and beyond.
0:21:39 > 0:21:43With less than four months until the referendum on June 23rd,
0:21:43 > 0:21:46debate about a British exit, or Brexit,
0:21:46 > 0:21:48is beginning across Northern Ireland.
0:21:55 > 0:21:57For those who live off the land, times are tough.
0:22:00 > 0:22:03Dairy farmers, like the McGuinness family in south Armagh,
0:22:03 > 0:22:05are barely breaking even.
0:22:11 > 0:22:13- Hi, Conor. - Hi, Kieran. How are you doing?
0:22:13 > 0:22:16- Welcome to Kingsmill Farm. - Thank you very much, sir. Thank you.
0:22:19 > 0:22:22- How many cows have you got? - 280 cows here.
0:22:22 > 0:22:24Is it a bit of a struggle at the moment?
0:22:24 > 0:22:26It's tricky at the minute.
0:22:26 > 0:22:29Why, what is making it difficult for you at the moment?
0:22:29 > 0:22:31The price is the biggest sticker, you know?
0:22:31 > 0:22:33We are down to 17p a litre,
0:22:33 > 0:22:37which is well below the cost of production.
0:22:39 > 0:22:41What level do you need to be at in terms of pence per litre
0:22:41 > 0:22:43to make it profitable?
0:22:46 > 0:22:49We would need to be getting 30p or thereabouts.
0:22:49 > 0:22:52Especially in the wintertime. The costs are high.
0:22:54 > 0:22:58Since 1962, farming in EU member countries
0:22:58 > 0:23:01has been governed by the Common Agricultural Policy, or CAP.
0:23:05 > 0:23:08CAP subsidies totalling £230 million
0:23:08 > 0:23:12are made to farmers in Northern Ireland via the Single Farm Payment.
0:23:15 > 0:23:18The Department of Agriculture forecasts the average dairy farm
0:23:18 > 0:23:21income this year will be £10,000.
0:23:21 > 0:23:25That's down from £45,000 last year.
0:23:25 > 0:23:27A massive drop.
0:23:27 > 0:23:29It's blamed on a number of factors.
0:23:29 > 0:23:31For example, sanctions on Russia,
0:23:31 > 0:23:34removing a key market for powdered milk.
0:23:34 > 0:23:35It means that this year,
0:23:35 > 0:23:39many dairy farmers will be dependent on the Single Farm Payment
0:23:39 > 0:23:41to survive.
0:23:41 > 0:23:44It's a matter of being in business or not in business, really.
0:23:44 > 0:23:46We couldn't operate without the Single Farm Payment.
0:23:46 > 0:23:49How concerned are you that, if you came out of the EU,
0:23:49 > 0:23:52that would be replaced by something else?
0:23:52 > 0:23:54We don't know if there'll be an alternative or not.
0:23:54 > 0:23:56That would be the problem.
0:23:57 > 0:24:01Before we ever went into Europe, farmers were subsidised.
0:24:01 > 0:24:05While we are in Europe, farmers are subsidised,
0:24:05 > 0:24:08but we have less money to do it because we are giving money
0:24:08 > 0:24:11to Europe, and when we leave the European Union,
0:24:11 > 0:24:15farming will still be an important industry.
0:24:15 > 0:24:18And all industries related to farming will be important.
0:24:23 > 0:24:27The Ulster Farmers' Union has said it won't be advising its members
0:24:27 > 0:24:29on whether they should vote in or out.
0:24:31 > 0:24:35However, it has leaned toward staying in by saying it believes
0:24:35 > 0:24:37subsidies are crucial to the industry
0:24:37 > 0:24:40and that no compelling alternative has been put forward.
0:24:43 > 0:24:44Things could be different
0:24:44 > 0:24:47in another sector of the food production industry.
0:24:48 > 0:24:52I am on my way now to Portavogie to meet a group of people
0:24:52 > 0:24:55who have had plenty to say about the European Union
0:24:55 > 0:24:56down the years - fishermen.
0:25:09 > 0:25:11- Hello, Derek.- Hello, Conor.
0:25:11 > 0:25:12- How are you? - Not so bad. How's things?
0:25:12 > 0:25:16Very well. Derek, thanks for letting us come.
0:25:16 > 0:25:19Derek Edmund has fished out of Portavogie for 40 years.
0:25:21 > 0:25:24He is the eighth generation to take to the seas
0:25:24 > 0:25:26and his sons have followed in his footsteps.
0:25:34 > 0:25:37He says times are as difficult as they have ever been
0:25:37 > 0:25:39in those four decades.
0:25:41 > 0:25:44You start fishing at six o'clock in the morning.
0:25:44 > 0:25:45You finish at six o'clock
0:25:45 > 0:25:48or eight o'clock at night.
0:25:48 > 0:25:49It sounds like a hard life.
0:25:49 > 0:25:51Well, it's not easy, but, sure, what is?
0:25:51 > 0:25:52We sign up for this.
0:25:54 > 0:25:57It's my way of life and that's the life we like doing.
0:25:57 > 0:25:59And we want to continue doing it.
0:26:03 > 0:26:04Why do you like it?
0:26:04 > 0:26:06It's in my blood. I've been doing it all my life.
0:26:06 > 0:26:10My grandfather, and his father before that.
0:26:10 > 0:26:14It has just been in the family, but it's getting harder every year.
0:26:15 > 0:26:18There's so much red tape now, it gets harder and harder.
0:26:20 > 0:26:21Where does the red tape come from?
0:26:21 > 0:26:24It comes from Brussels.
0:26:24 > 0:26:29We have MPs and MLAs and they come down and speak to fishermen
0:26:29 > 0:26:32and fishermen give them their views, but when it goes to London
0:26:32 > 0:26:35or Brussels, it seems to be... as far as I'm concerned,
0:26:35 > 0:26:37it gets brushed below the carpet.
0:26:37 > 0:26:38Go easy!
0:26:44 > 0:26:48The European Union seeks to conserve stocks by imposing quotas
0:26:48 > 0:26:52on fishermen like Derek via the Common Fisheries Policy.
0:26:55 > 0:26:57While once Derek was able to land herring and cod,
0:26:57 > 0:27:00he is down to six months catching scallops
0:27:00 > 0:27:03and six months catching prawns.
0:27:04 > 0:27:07Bring a basket and measuring stick!
0:27:07 > 0:27:11The EU says it is necessary to prevent the overfishing that went on
0:27:11 > 0:27:14before it stepped in and imposed quotas.
0:27:19 > 0:27:21Fishermen believe they might have a more certain future
0:27:21 > 0:27:23outside the European Union.
0:27:23 > 0:27:27For others, though, a Brexit would create uncertainties in areas
0:27:27 > 0:27:29many of us take for granted.
0:27:36 > 0:27:40Currently, milk from the McGuinness family farm in South Armagh
0:27:40 > 0:27:43goes across the border to a creamery in Monaghan town.
0:27:45 > 0:27:46I went to see for myself.
0:27:49 > 0:27:53As I came up to the border, I passed a derelict customs post.
0:27:53 > 0:27:55A reminder of a different era.
0:27:57 > 0:28:00I'm coming up to a bridge which separates County Armagh
0:28:00 > 0:28:02from one County Monaghan.
0:28:03 > 0:28:06These days, unless you look closely, it can be difficult
0:28:06 > 0:28:10to see where Northern Ireland ends and the Republic begins.
0:28:11 > 0:28:13And whether that will remain the case
0:28:13 > 0:28:15is one of the fundamental questions of Brexit.
0:28:19 > 0:28:22Customs controls were introduced shortly after partition
0:28:22 > 0:28:24and were dotted along the border
0:28:24 > 0:28:25at key crossing points.
0:28:29 > 0:28:33Even before the Troubles, when security checks became normal,
0:28:33 > 0:28:36the checkpoints were often the cause of queues to cross the border.
0:28:38 > 0:28:41These disappeared at the beginning of 1993
0:28:41 > 0:28:44with the introduction of the European single market.
0:28:48 > 0:28:51Gabriel Darcey runs a creamery where the milk
0:28:51 > 0:28:54from the McGuinness family farm ends up.
0:28:54 > 0:28:57He is worried what a Brexit could mean for the border
0:28:57 > 0:28:58and his business.
0:29:03 > 0:29:07Up the road, outside Aughnacloy, there would be another border post.
0:29:08 > 0:29:11It harps back to a time
0:29:11 > 0:29:13in the relatively recent past
0:29:13 > 0:29:15that we all hoped
0:29:15 > 0:29:17we had moved away from,
0:29:17 > 0:29:20and not dwelling or speaking about the security aspects,
0:29:20 > 0:29:23I am purely looking at the trading aspects.
0:29:24 > 0:29:29Opponents of Brexit will say there won't be border or customs posts.
0:29:29 > 0:29:32Common sense dictates that what's there at the moment
0:29:32 > 0:29:36will be what continues to be the case going forward.
0:29:36 > 0:29:40If that is the case, and if there are no border controls,
0:29:40 > 0:29:42well, that would certainly be helpful,
0:29:42 > 0:29:47but as it stands, I can only surmise with what is likely to happen.
0:29:48 > 0:29:54When you have two different trading blocs, border controls do exist.
0:29:59 > 0:30:04For some, a less open border would be an impediment to free trade.
0:30:04 > 0:30:08For others, though, it would represent a political step backward.
0:30:09 > 0:30:11Even in a symbolic sense,
0:30:11 > 0:30:14that has enormous repercussions for nationalism
0:30:14 > 0:30:18because it reinstates the border between north and south
0:30:18 > 0:30:22and perhaps it could be interpreted as undermining much of the progress
0:30:22 > 0:30:24which has been made over recent years
0:30:24 > 0:30:27in terms of bringing north and south closer together.
0:30:39 > 0:30:41It's not just the border with the Irish Republic
0:30:41 > 0:30:43which comes up in this debate.
0:30:49 > 0:30:52I took the campervan to Carrickfergus
0:30:52 > 0:30:53to meet some of the locals...
0:30:53 > 0:30:56I want to know, are these bendy bananas?!
0:30:57 > 0:31:00..with their vocally Eurosceptic MP, Sammy Wilson.
0:31:00 > 0:31:02LAUGHTER
0:31:03 > 0:31:08There, it was the UK's borders which was the biggest talking point.
0:31:08 > 0:31:10What way are you leaning at the moment?
0:31:10 > 0:31:12I would say out.
0:31:13 > 0:31:17Er, not because of trade, but because of the immigration business.
0:31:18 > 0:31:21I have only lived in Northern Ireland for ten years.
0:31:21 > 0:31:24I lived in the North of England the rest of my life
0:31:24 > 0:31:27and I could see then what was happening
0:31:27 > 0:31:29and it was quite frightening.
0:31:30 > 0:31:34And I was last over there three years ago,
0:31:34 > 0:31:36and I came back so depressed.
0:31:38 > 0:31:41I walk through the town where I was born and brought up...
0:31:43 > 0:31:45..and there was very little English spoken.
0:31:45 > 0:31:48As someone who's emigrated a couple of times myself,
0:31:48 > 0:31:50I have nothing against immigration.
0:31:50 > 0:31:53But the border controls are a mess at the moment.
0:31:54 > 0:31:58And I would have certain concerns about the whole breakdown of Europe
0:31:58 > 0:32:00because we have lost control of it.
0:32:01 > 0:32:05All Ireland ever exported for years was immigrants.
0:32:05 > 0:32:09So, as a country, I believe we should encourage immigration into us
0:32:09 > 0:32:11and I have nothing against that...
0:32:11 > 0:32:13Provided we have control over it.
0:32:13 > 0:32:15Control of it. Total control.
0:32:16 > 0:32:19I think it will affect Northern Ireland worse than the rest of GB.
0:32:19 > 0:32:21Why do you think that?
0:32:21 > 0:32:24We're reliant on GB which is hugely reliant on Europe.
0:32:24 > 0:32:26So I think we would really suffer.
0:32:26 > 0:32:29We always do suffer more than the rest of GB anyway...
0:32:29 > 0:32:32Financially. Lesser wages, everything.
0:32:32 > 0:32:35So, it would hit us quite hard.
0:32:35 > 0:32:38Europe's economy is stagnating.
0:32:38 > 0:32:41That is one of the reasons why they are selling more goods to us
0:32:41 > 0:32:44than we are selling to them.
0:32:44 > 0:32:47They don't have the money to purchase them.
0:32:47 > 0:32:50I have plenty of scrambled eggs for breakfast anyway!
0:32:50 > 0:32:53Sammy is here today because we are talking about the EU
0:32:53 > 0:32:56and whether it is a good idea to stay or leave.
0:32:57 > 0:33:00- I don't know what would be the best. - Uh-huh.
0:33:00 > 0:33:01I really don't.
0:33:01 > 0:33:03The great thing about the referendum is this...
0:33:03 > 0:33:09For the first time in 45 years, our position in the European Union
0:33:09 > 0:33:11will not be decided by people like me
0:33:11 > 0:33:15or the elite at Westminster. It will be decided by people like you.
0:33:15 > 0:33:17You're part of the Westminster elite, aren't you?!
0:33:17 > 0:33:18LAUGHTER
0:33:18 > 0:33:21They try to stifle this debate about immigration.
0:33:21 > 0:33:25As soon as you say immigration, you are labelled a racist.
0:33:25 > 0:33:26Yes.
0:33:26 > 0:33:29But most countries in the world have controls
0:33:29 > 0:33:32about how many people they want to come in.
0:33:32 > 0:33:35If they misbehave when they do come in, what you do with them?
0:33:35 > 0:33:37But you can't send them back.
0:33:37 > 0:33:41- No, because - currently - you've got the open door policy.- Yup.
0:33:41 > 0:33:44Secondly, you've got the European Court of Justice telling you
0:33:44 > 0:33:47who can and can't stay.
0:33:47 > 0:33:50The great thing about being out of the European Union
0:33:50 > 0:33:52is you would grab back that control.
0:33:54 > 0:33:57A few people brought up immigration as an issue.
0:33:57 > 0:33:59What impact will Brexit have on that?
0:33:59 > 0:34:00Let's face it,
0:34:00 > 0:34:06there are many people that come here and bring skills that we require.
0:34:06 > 0:34:08We want to welcome those people
0:34:08 > 0:34:11because they can make a contribution to our society.
0:34:11 > 0:34:14But we also want to control the numbers
0:34:14 > 0:34:17so that we don't have, as happens in some parts of the UK,
0:34:17 > 0:34:21pressure on housing, schools, and hospitals.
0:34:21 > 0:34:24So, I'm not anti-immigration.
0:34:24 > 0:34:28What I am is pro control of immigration.
0:34:28 > 0:34:32So, we make the decisions about who comes in, who stays,
0:34:32 > 0:34:33and who we get rid of.
0:34:39 > 0:34:43Having heard the concerns about immigration in Carrickfergus,
0:34:43 > 0:34:47I wanted to find out more about the industries that depend on it.
0:34:56 > 0:35:00We're heading into what is really the heart of the fishing industry
0:35:00 > 0:35:02in Northern Ireland, into Kilkeel.
0:35:02 > 0:35:04We are going to see where some of the produce
0:35:04 > 0:35:06caught by our fishermen ends up.
0:35:08 > 0:35:12Since 1975, this factory has been processing fish
0:35:12 > 0:35:14caught off these shores.
0:35:16 > 0:35:18Many of the staff are from Eastern Europe.
0:35:20 > 0:35:23How important is it to your business to have that access
0:35:23 > 0:35:25to that migrant labour?
0:35:25 > 0:35:27Just at the moment, if I didn't have them,
0:35:27 > 0:35:30I would not be here, and that's just the plain way of it.
0:35:30 > 0:35:34We find it very hard to get local labour.
0:35:34 > 0:35:37We used to have 99% local labour.
0:35:37 > 0:35:40Everybody is dependent, in Northern Ireland,
0:35:40 > 0:35:41on migrant workers.
0:35:41 > 0:35:44It doesn't matter what manufacturing you are in.
0:35:47 > 0:35:49How long have you been in Northern Ireland?
0:35:49 > 0:35:52I have been here 13 years.
0:35:52 > 0:35:55How many of these people are from Bulgaria?
0:35:55 > 0:35:56About 30 or 40.
0:35:56 > 0:35:5730 or 40?
0:35:57 > 0:36:00- Yeah.- As many as that from Bulgaria working here?
0:36:00 > 0:36:01Yeah, yeah, yeah.
0:36:01 > 0:36:03The wages are better here in Northern Ireland?
0:36:03 > 0:36:05Yes, yes. Of course.
0:36:05 > 0:36:07How often do you go back to Bulgaria?
0:36:07 > 0:36:12One or two times per year I go over to see my parents.
0:36:12 > 0:36:15My husband is here and I have a son here,
0:36:15 > 0:36:17my brother here, but my parents aren't here.
0:36:19 > 0:36:22Gergana made me think about how a Brexit might affect her family.
0:36:25 > 0:36:28I asked Bernadette McAliskey, an advocate for migrants,
0:36:28 > 0:36:31what impact she thought the UK leaving the European Union
0:36:31 > 0:36:34might have on immigrants already here.
0:36:34 > 0:36:36From my perspective,
0:36:38 > 0:36:41it adds to that feeling that you are simply being treated
0:36:41 > 0:36:46as a commodity and not as a human being.
0:36:46 > 0:36:50And adds to that sense that, if your labour could be wrung out of you,
0:36:50 > 0:36:53your humanity would be left at the border.
0:36:53 > 0:36:56I don't think the UK could limit the rights of people
0:36:56 > 0:37:02already in the UK, but it would appear to be a very cold house,
0:37:02 > 0:37:05and it would be a colder house for Northern Ireland
0:37:05 > 0:37:08if its immigrant labour population up and left.
0:37:13 > 0:37:16Analysts say the prospect of a British departure from the EU
0:37:16 > 0:37:20raises questions about future immigration policy.
0:37:20 > 0:37:22Many of our agri-food businesses, many of our tourism businesses
0:37:22 > 0:37:25rely on European labour at this point in time.
0:37:25 > 0:37:27So, the question is,
0:37:27 > 0:37:29could local labour take that opportunity instead?
0:37:32 > 0:37:34It is critical that we understand
0:37:34 > 0:37:36what exactly the UK's position would be
0:37:36 > 0:37:38so that we can understand,
0:37:38 > 0:37:40both from the business perspective - can they get talent -
0:37:40 > 0:37:42and from the individual perspective
0:37:42 > 0:37:45as to whether we have any, or greater control, over our borders
0:37:45 > 0:37:48which, emotive as it is, is clearly an important part
0:37:48 > 0:37:52of what is going through voters' minds as they go to the ballot box.
0:37:57 > 0:37:59At the other end of the fishing industry,
0:37:59 > 0:38:04it is continued membership of the EU that is causing the headache.
0:38:05 > 0:38:06I have two sons.
0:38:08 > 0:38:11And, have they a future? You tell me!
0:38:11 > 0:38:16You'll have an opportunity to vote in the referendum in June.
0:38:16 > 0:38:17How will you vote?
0:38:17 > 0:38:21As far as I'm concerned, for our industry, get out and stay out.
0:38:26 > 0:38:30While some fishermen have had a long and difficult relationship
0:38:30 > 0:38:34with the EU, it is often assumed that farmers look on it
0:38:34 > 0:38:35more benignly.
0:38:35 > 0:38:38But, as I chatted to the McGuinness family in South Armagh,
0:38:38 > 0:38:41it was clear they thought the subsidies from the EU
0:38:41 > 0:38:45were little better than a necessary evil.
0:38:45 > 0:38:49It's interesting. Even around this table, you are out at the moment.
0:38:49 > 0:38:52You're half in, half out.
0:38:52 > 0:38:54You're like the hokey cokey!
0:38:54 > 0:38:58And you are pretty much stay in at the moment?
0:38:58 > 0:39:00Would that be fair?
0:39:00 > 0:39:02Yeah. It probably is, yeah.
0:39:02 > 0:39:04What would life be like on this farm without subsidies,
0:39:04 > 0:39:06if they were taken away?
0:39:06 > 0:39:10We would much prefer to work without subsidies of any sort,
0:39:10 > 0:39:16and most farmers would, like, but in the present climate you can't.
0:39:16 > 0:39:17It's keeping the whole thing afloat.
0:39:17 > 0:39:21It is not pushing anything forward.
0:39:21 > 0:39:23There's men waiting on it, men hanging for it.
0:39:23 > 0:39:28You'd rather not be waiting, begging the EU for money to keep going,
0:39:28 > 0:39:31not even to expand or move forward.
0:39:31 > 0:39:33You know...
0:39:33 > 0:39:36No money to reinvest, you know what I mean?
0:39:36 > 0:39:37Nothing to put back in.
0:39:52 > 0:39:54The McGuinness family were split down the middle
0:39:54 > 0:39:58about whether to stay in or get out.
0:39:58 > 0:40:00So I decided to find out more about attitudes
0:40:00 > 0:40:03within the farming community.
0:40:03 > 0:40:06I asked the MP for South Down to meet me at a sheep mart
0:40:06 > 0:40:08in Downpatrick.
0:40:08 > 0:40:09I suppose you'll do lots of campaigning
0:40:09 > 0:40:12over the next few months with the Assembly elections?
0:40:12 > 0:40:15I have been doing quite a bit anyway, but I actually like
0:40:15 > 0:40:17getting out and meeting the people.
0:40:22 > 0:40:26David Cameron goes to Europe and has an argument for UK farmers.
0:40:26 > 0:40:27What does he come back with?
0:40:27 > 0:40:30Normally, he comes back with basically nothing.
0:40:30 > 0:40:31They don't seem to listen.
0:40:31 > 0:40:35It is more about Germany, France, and all the other countries.
0:40:35 > 0:40:37If we went out of business in the morning,
0:40:37 > 0:40:41I don't think them countries would give two hoots about us.
0:40:41 > 0:40:44But you can argue better and negotiate better
0:40:44 > 0:40:48if you're within the European Union than if you're outside it.
0:40:48 > 0:40:52I'm saying just give reflection and consideration to that,
0:40:52 > 0:40:56because my concern is concern for you and the pound in your pocket.
0:40:58 > 0:41:03I think my vote would be to stay in the EEC mainly because today,
0:41:03 > 0:41:07at this sale, the majority of sheep are sold and will be exported
0:41:07 > 0:41:10to Southern Ireland for slaughter on Monday or Tuesday.
0:41:10 > 0:41:13That would be more difficult for the buyers
0:41:13 > 0:41:15and there'd be less money for the farmers
0:41:15 > 0:41:17at the end of the day.
0:41:17 > 0:41:21Again, those in favour of a Brexit will say, if the UK were outside,
0:41:21 > 0:41:24it would be much more flexible.
0:41:24 > 0:41:27It could do a deal with Brazil one day and China the next.
0:41:27 > 0:41:33It has not been widely published what deals are available
0:41:33 > 0:41:35or what the systems will be after the exit.
0:41:36 > 0:41:38You are worried about the uncertainty?
0:41:38 > 0:41:39The uncertainty.
0:41:46 > 0:41:50It was becoming clear that some farmers prefer the certainty
0:41:50 > 0:41:51of life within the EU.
0:41:53 > 0:41:56Others felt that leaving might be the radical change
0:41:56 > 0:41:57that farming needed.
0:42:00 > 0:42:02It reflected at wider mood.
0:42:02 > 0:42:04A majority of CBI members in Northern Ireland
0:42:04 > 0:42:06back staying in.
0:42:06 > 0:42:09But businessmen I talked to preferred the status quo as well.
0:42:11 > 0:42:14But, as I toured across Northern Ireland and beyond,
0:42:14 > 0:42:17it was clear, also, that there were those who had much more
0:42:17 > 0:42:19mixed feelings about the benefits of EU membership
0:42:19 > 0:42:21for them and their families.
0:42:37 > 0:42:39This morning, we are heading into Dundalk,
0:42:39 > 0:42:41and the reason we are going there today is
0:42:41 > 0:42:45because it is hosting a big conference on Brexit.
0:42:45 > 0:42:48Specifically on some of the political and constitutional
0:42:48 > 0:42:50implications of a Brexit.
0:42:50 > 0:42:52There's a whole host of speakers.
0:42:52 > 0:42:55I'm really looking forward to hearing what people have to say.
0:42:57 > 0:43:00The delegates are discussing different political scenarios,
0:43:00 > 0:43:03but the ambitions of one keynote speaker's party
0:43:03 > 0:43:06dominates much of the chat.
0:43:06 > 0:43:12The key message I wanted to give was that for those who want the UK
0:43:12 > 0:43:14to remain within the European Union - the Scottish Government,
0:43:14 > 0:43:16of course, within that -
0:43:16 > 0:43:21we all have to do make a positive case to remain
0:43:21 > 0:43:22within the European Union.
0:43:22 > 0:43:27It's 18 months since Scotland voted to remain within the United Kingdom.
0:43:27 > 0:43:31Many people, including some of the independence movement,
0:43:31 > 0:43:34believed that another referendum was unlikely for many years.
0:43:34 > 0:43:37Now, some believe it could happen more quickly.
0:43:37 > 0:43:39If the UK votes to leave
0:43:39 > 0:43:42and Scotland votes to stay in the European Union,
0:43:42 > 0:43:44the demand from the people
0:43:44 > 0:43:46for another referendum could be unstoppable.
0:43:46 > 0:43:48That could be the material change
0:43:48 > 0:43:50for another Scottish independence referendum.
0:43:50 > 0:43:53In the event the Scottish decide on another referendum
0:43:53 > 0:43:56and decide they are better outside the United Kingdom
0:43:56 > 0:43:58and inside the European Union,
0:43:58 > 0:43:59that begs all sorts of questions
0:43:59 > 0:44:02about the long-term cohesion of the United Kingdom
0:44:02 > 0:44:03as a single political entity,
0:44:03 > 0:44:07and it begs all sorts of questions, for Northern Ireland in particular,
0:44:07 > 0:44:09and maybe Unionists even more so.
0:44:09 > 0:44:11So, Unionists who are in favour of Brexit
0:44:11 > 0:44:14should maybe be careful what they wish for?
0:44:14 > 0:44:15I would suggest so.
0:44:15 > 0:44:19I sit behind the Scottish nationalists in Westminster.
0:44:19 > 0:44:22I taunt them as often as I can
0:44:22 > 0:44:27about their ill-fated campaign to leave the United Kingdom
0:44:27 > 0:44:29and the fact that, if they had done so,
0:44:29 > 0:44:32they would have been destitute
0:44:32 > 0:44:35because of the way the price of oil has gone.
0:44:35 > 0:44:37I am under no illusions.
0:44:37 > 0:44:39It doesn't matter what excuse they need.
0:44:39 > 0:44:41The Scottish nationalists will push for a referendum again
0:44:41 > 0:44:44at some stage in the future.
0:44:44 > 0:44:47Some observers believe that the impact of a Brexit on Scotland
0:44:47 > 0:44:50could prompt a referendum here as well.
0:44:51 > 0:44:53I think... there isn't a doubt,
0:44:53 > 0:44:56that you would have a new referendum
0:44:56 > 0:45:00in Scotland, which might take Scotland into independence
0:45:00 > 0:45:04with membership of the European Union being a factor.
0:45:04 > 0:45:07And that, in turn, you might have a domino effect
0:45:07 > 0:45:10which would then lead to a new border poll
0:45:10 > 0:45:13because of the impact on Northern Ireland.
0:45:20 > 0:45:23When my journey began, I was thinking more about one union,
0:45:23 > 0:45:25the European Union.
0:45:25 > 0:45:29But as it's gone on, I've begun to think more about another union,
0:45:29 > 0:45:31the union of the United Kingdom.
0:45:34 > 0:45:38As the 23rd of June approaches, politicians will seek to persuade us
0:45:38 > 0:45:42that their view of the European Union is the right view.
0:45:42 > 0:45:43I think it is vital
0:45:43 > 0:45:46because it creates greater levels
0:45:46 > 0:45:48of economic and social cohesion,
0:45:48 > 0:45:52greater levels of understanding, and it is good for Northern Ireland.
0:45:52 > 0:45:56The important thing about any democracy is that the people
0:45:56 > 0:46:00who are elected to the parliament to make the decisions
0:46:00 > 0:46:03ought to be capable of being held accountable.
0:46:03 > 0:46:06About ten days after Sammy Wilson told me this
0:46:06 > 0:46:08I was looking back through the footage of our day together
0:46:08 > 0:46:10at Carrickfergus market.
0:46:10 > 0:46:15I noticed a conversation that had happened while I was out of earshot.
0:46:15 > 0:46:17- SAMMY WILSON:- They're doing a wee programme, the BBC,
0:46:17 > 0:46:20- about should we stay in the European Union or get out of it.- Uh-huh.
0:46:20 > 0:46:22So, I'm going round talking to people
0:46:22 > 0:46:24and they'll do an interview with me.
0:46:24 > 0:46:26- I say get out of it. - Aye. Well, do you know...?
0:46:26 > 0:46:28Between you and me, get the ethnics out, too.
0:46:28 > 0:46:29You're absolutely right, you know?
0:46:29 > 0:46:32I was talking to a girl this morning, you know.
0:46:32 > 0:46:35I don't know if you know or not, but you see St Anne's Cathedral?
0:46:35 > 0:46:37You're coming out of the church at night,
0:46:37 > 0:46:39there are people laying on the porches of our Cathedral.
0:46:39 > 0:46:43It's ridiculous. People in Northern Ireland sleeping rough and these
0:46:43 > 0:46:46people are coming into the country and they're getting houses,
0:46:46 > 0:46:47- and getting everything. - Yeah, yeah.
0:46:47 > 0:46:50It's unbelievable. I don't agree with it at all.
0:46:50 > 0:46:53We've been going around trying to find somebody who thinks
0:46:53 > 0:46:57we should stay in and I haven't been able to find anybody.
0:46:57 > 0:46:58I am happy to hear that!
0:46:58 > 0:47:00They're not!
0:47:00 > 0:47:02We're happy to find out what the truth is
0:47:02 > 0:47:07- and you're in favour of leaving the EU?- Absolutely.
0:47:07 > 0:47:09As we saw earlier in the programme,
0:47:09 > 0:47:11I met other people in Carrickfergus
0:47:11 > 0:47:13who expressed concern about immigration.
0:47:13 > 0:47:16That will be part of the debate about the UK's membership
0:47:16 > 0:47:18of the European Union.
0:47:18 > 0:47:22But Mr Wilson's conversation with the man felt very different.
0:47:22 > 0:47:25I, therefore, wrote to him to ask him what he meant when he appeared
0:47:25 > 0:47:28agree with the comment, "Get the ethnics out, too."
0:47:28 > 0:47:31In response, Mr Wilson asked whether the BBC was,
0:47:31 > 0:47:34"having a laugh".
0:47:34 > 0:47:37He went on to say, "I am not prepared to spend any more time
0:47:37 > 0:47:40"being interviewed, giving you explanations
0:47:40 > 0:47:44"or responding to what anyone would regard as a disgraceful request
0:47:44 > 0:47:48"to facilitate your biased political slant to this programme."
0:47:48 > 0:47:50In a statement today, the DUP said:
0:48:02 > 0:48:07Later, Mr Wilson told BBC Newsline he had been taken out of context.
0:48:07 > 0:48:11I agreed with the comments he made about leaving the EU.
0:48:11 > 0:48:16I was not agreeing with the comments he made about ethnic communities.
0:48:19 > 0:48:21Let's listen again to what was said.
0:48:22 > 0:48:25'They're doing a programme, the BBC, about should we stay
0:48:25 > 0:48:26- 'in the EU or get out of it.' - 'Uh-huh.'
0:48:26 > 0:48:28'So, I'm going round talking to people
0:48:28 > 0:48:30'then they'll do an interview with me.'
0:48:30 > 0:48:32- 'I say get out of it.' - 'Aye. Well, do you know...?'
0:48:32 > 0:48:34'Between you and me, get the ethnics out, too.'
0:48:34 > 0:48:37'You're absolutely right, you know?'
0:48:47 > 0:48:49I have been asking people across Northern Ireland
0:48:49 > 0:48:51how they feel about the European Union.
0:48:51 > 0:48:54Some people have told me they like it,
0:48:54 > 0:48:56others have told me they depend upon it,
0:48:56 > 0:48:59and others have told me they loathe it.
0:48:59 > 0:49:02My journey has come to an end now, but the question
0:49:02 > 0:49:06is whether the UK's journey within the EU is going to continue
0:49:06 > 0:49:08or whether it's going to come to an end as well.