0:34:24 > 0:34:27Good evening. Well, hasn't it been a dramatic few days,
0:34:27 > 0:34:29since the vote to leave the EU?
0:34:29 > 0:34:31The Tory and Labour parties are up to their necks
0:34:31 > 0:34:34in leadership struggles at Westminster,
0:34:34 > 0:34:36Nigel Farage is insulting MEPs in Brussels,
0:34:36 > 0:34:38the Dail has been recalled,
0:34:38 > 0:34:40Stormont has had an emergency debate.
0:34:40 > 0:34:42Over the next hour, though, we'll try and cast some light
0:34:42 > 0:34:44on what all of this means for Northern Ireland
0:34:44 > 0:34:46and its relationship with the Republic.
0:34:46 > 0:34:49We'll talk to the Secretary of State, Theresa Villiers,
0:34:49 > 0:34:51and the former First Minister, Lord Trimble.
0:34:51 > 0:34:53We'll hear a view from Scotland,
0:34:53 > 0:34:55where a second independence referendum is on the cards,
0:34:55 > 0:34:59and we'll learn the hopes and fears of a Polish family living here.
0:34:59 > 0:35:02The Brexit vote has thrown up myriad questions about
0:35:02 > 0:35:05the political and economic future of the United Kingdom.
0:35:05 > 0:35:08But in Northern Ireland, the answers are more complex,
0:35:08 > 0:35:11because, of course, of our EU neighbours in the Republic.
0:35:11 > 0:35:13Conor Spackman asks how it's all going down
0:35:13 > 0:35:15along the border and elsewhere.
0:35:27 > 0:35:30The border areas of South Down and South Armagh
0:35:30 > 0:35:33have been transformed since the end of the Troubles.
0:35:34 > 0:35:37The economy, once shrouded in gloom,
0:35:37 > 0:35:40now seeing sunnier times.
0:35:40 > 0:35:43Here, many believe it wouldn't have happened
0:35:43 > 0:35:45without the European Union.
0:35:46 > 0:35:49The EU has been a big part of it in two ways.
0:35:49 > 0:35:54The Single European Act, when it was implemented in 1992,
0:35:54 > 0:35:56the effect here was the removal of
0:35:56 > 0:35:59customs barriers, and that was a removal to
0:35:59 > 0:36:02the movement of goods, which liberated many businesses here.
0:36:04 > 0:36:08But it also was a stakeholder in financing infrastructure.
0:36:08 > 0:36:13This area was devastated economically by partition.
0:36:13 > 0:36:20That changed radically in the '90s and 2000s, and significant growth
0:36:20 > 0:36:25within the local economy happened from the mid-1990s onwards,
0:36:25 > 0:36:28but it was exponential in the 2000s.
0:36:34 > 0:36:37Across Europe, the EU prioritises help
0:36:37 > 0:36:41for peripheral regions which have been economically disadvantaged.
0:36:43 > 0:36:48The village of Forkhill was once cut in two by a massive Army base,
0:36:48 > 0:36:52but it's now derelict, and a prime site for development.
0:36:52 > 0:36:56Bernard Boyle has big plans to use it to boost the local economy,
0:36:56 > 0:36:59but he was counting on EU money.
0:37:00 > 0:37:02We had anticipated that we would get
0:37:02 > 0:37:04funding from Europe to build the business units,
0:37:04 > 0:37:07and that funding, we can't see that...
0:37:07 > 0:37:10There's a possibility that that's not going to happen now.
0:37:10 > 0:37:12You are not confident of getting it from Stormont
0:37:12 > 0:37:14or even from Westminster?
0:37:14 > 0:37:17Absolutely not, absolutely not, you know, we have already,
0:37:17 > 0:37:20over the years, have lobbied Stormont and Westminster
0:37:20 > 0:37:22as far as funding for sustainable projects
0:37:22 > 0:37:27in this area is concerned, and we have been singularly unsuccessful.
0:37:27 > 0:37:30For Bernard, it's not good enough
0:37:30 > 0:37:33to say that the UK as a whole voted to Leave.
0:37:33 > 0:37:36We see what the benefits of being in Europe are, but we have been
0:37:36 > 0:37:38dragged out of Europe kicking and screaming,
0:37:38 > 0:37:41whereas we wanted to remain.
0:37:41 > 0:37:43It may be seen as a democratic process,
0:37:43 > 0:37:47but it hasn't been democratic as far as we are concerned.
0:37:50 > 0:37:55In Downpatrick, Oliver Gilchrist has a cattle farm
0:37:55 > 0:37:57and trades across the border.
0:37:57 > 0:38:00Even with uncertainty over subsidies, he voted for Brexit,
0:38:00 > 0:38:04believing that Stormont and Westminster
0:38:04 > 0:38:06would deliver more for farmers than Brussels.
0:38:06 > 0:38:09I wasn't happy with the way the EU was telling us
0:38:09 > 0:38:12what to do and bringing in all the new regulations
0:38:12 > 0:38:13that we had to abide by.
0:38:13 > 0:38:16That's the way I would have seen it.
0:38:16 > 0:38:18And, and...
0:38:18 > 0:38:21Just too many inspections, farm inspections
0:38:21 > 0:38:24and too many people getting big money when farmers getting nothing.
0:38:24 > 0:38:26Who was getting the big money?
0:38:26 > 0:38:28Well, the supermarkets, to start with.
0:38:28 > 0:38:31The factories, and the thousands of bureaucrats
0:38:31 > 0:38:33that were working in Brussels...
0:38:35 > 0:38:37..that probably knew nothing about farming.
0:38:37 > 0:38:40So, in a nutshell, you have lot more faith
0:38:40 > 0:38:43in London, in Westminster, than you do in Brussels.
0:38:43 > 0:38:47100% more. I think you can't beat having a local government.
0:38:48 > 0:38:50Ballymena exporter
0:38:50 > 0:38:53and former chair of the Conservatives here, Irwin Armstrong,
0:38:53 > 0:38:59also backed Brexit. He says fears of uncertainty are exaggerated.
0:38:59 > 0:39:03Anybody in business knows the future is always very uncertain.
0:39:03 > 0:39:05You make investment plans,
0:39:05 > 0:39:07you don't know what's going to happen,
0:39:07 > 0:39:09so this is not much different from that.
0:39:09 > 0:39:12And he says complaints from places like South Armagh
0:39:12 > 0:39:16that the vote is not really democratic are worrying.
0:39:16 > 0:39:18I think we're in a very dangerous situation.
0:39:18 > 0:39:21We represent about 2-3% of the United Kingdom,
0:39:21 > 0:39:25and 2-3% cannot dictate to the rest of the country
0:39:25 > 0:39:27what's going to happen, you know,
0:39:27 > 0:39:29that is totally unconstitutional.
0:39:29 > 0:39:32Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom,
0:39:32 > 0:39:35and will have to operate as part of the United Kingdom.
0:39:41 > 0:39:44Driving along narrow country lanes at the border,
0:39:44 > 0:39:46often the only sign of going from north to south
0:39:46 > 0:39:50is the chopping and changing of road signs - not like the old days.
0:39:53 > 0:39:55Customs posts like this were
0:39:55 > 0:39:58once symbols of the border between north and south.
0:39:58 > 0:40:00But with Northern Ireland and the Republic
0:40:00 > 0:40:02both members of the European Union,
0:40:02 > 0:40:05with its rules on the free movements of goods, they became redundant.
0:40:05 > 0:40:09Now, though, with Northern Ireland now set to leave the European Union,
0:40:09 > 0:40:13the question is whether some sort of physical border,
0:40:13 > 0:40:16perhaps customs posts or maybe even passport controls,
0:40:16 > 0:40:18might have to be introduced.
0:40:18 > 0:40:21That question remains unresolved.
0:40:24 > 0:40:28Jonathan Powell, an architect of the Good Friday Agreement,
0:40:28 > 0:40:30says open borders were important
0:40:30 > 0:40:33in getting nationalists to buy into the peace process.
0:40:34 > 0:40:36The Good Friday Agreement was based on
0:40:36 > 0:40:39the idea that the border became less significant.
0:40:39 > 0:40:41You remember all those concrete blocks that
0:40:41 > 0:40:42blocked the lanes and byways of the border,
0:40:42 > 0:40:44they were removed as part of the agreement.
0:40:44 > 0:40:47We're going to end up with them back to stop people coming across,
0:40:47 > 0:40:49so they go to customs posts and immigration controls.
0:40:49 > 0:40:53It's going to really undermine part of the basis of the very agreement.
0:40:53 > 0:40:58Unionists in favour of Brexit have dismissed fears of a hard border.
0:40:59 > 0:41:01Theresa Villiers, though, the Secretary of State,
0:41:01 > 0:41:04has said that the Common Travel Area
0:41:04 > 0:41:05persisted throughout the war,
0:41:05 > 0:41:08throughout the Troubles. Why are you not reassured by that?
0:41:08 > 0:41:12Well, because she's completely missing the point.
0:41:12 > 0:41:15The Common Travel Area goes right back in history to
0:41:15 > 0:41:17the creation of Northern Ireland.
0:41:17 > 0:41:20The problem is that we've always had the same immigration policies,
0:41:20 > 0:41:23and if we stop free movement of people around the European Union,
0:41:23 > 0:41:25then you can't have an open border.
0:41:28 > 0:41:32Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin says a hard border would be
0:41:32 > 0:41:34a major step backwards.
0:41:34 > 0:41:38I think it could do a lot of damage to the island of Ireland.
0:41:38 > 0:41:42I think it could be exploited by forces who would use it
0:41:42 > 0:41:46to pursue their own militant agendas.
0:41:46 > 0:41:48And it is amazing how much we take for granted
0:41:48 > 0:41:51when all of this has disappeared, it is only their re-introduction
0:41:51 > 0:41:53will really bring it home to people,
0:41:53 > 0:41:56the enormity of the decision that has been taken.
0:41:56 > 0:41:59So, therefore, I think it would be damaging.
0:41:59 > 0:42:02Jonathan Powell believes that the possible reimposition
0:42:02 > 0:42:06of a hard border may not be the only major consequence of Brexit.
0:42:06 > 0:42:08I think it is really rather a serious threat
0:42:08 > 0:42:10to the United Kingdom and its existence.
0:42:10 > 0:42:12And it's slightly paradoxical that these people
0:42:12 > 0:42:15who campaigned for Brexit, who are supposedly champions
0:42:15 > 0:42:17of the United Kingdom have led to its possible demise.
0:42:17 > 0:42:19It seems almost certain, after what Nicola Sturgeon said,
0:42:19 > 0:42:22that we're going to end up with a referendum in Scotland.
0:42:22 > 0:42:23It seems extremely likely
0:42:23 > 0:42:26that referendum will go for independence in Scotland.
0:42:26 > 0:42:28But Irwin Armstrong doesn't believe
0:42:28 > 0:42:31the north-south arrangements will be affected,
0:42:31 > 0:42:34or that Scotland will become independent.
0:42:34 > 0:42:37There would be no reason for any change in the way we operate.
0:42:37 > 0:42:39I would encourage Nicola Sturgeon
0:42:39 > 0:42:42to have another referendum if she actually wants one.
0:42:42 > 0:42:45She knows she won't win it, the people know she won't win it,
0:42:45 > 0:42:46and the people don't want it.
0:42:46 > 0:42:47While Brexiteers stress
0:42:47 > 0:42:49that little needs to change,
0:42:49 > 0:42:53in South Armagh there's a feeling that things have already changed,
0:42:53 > 0:42:56and new divides have opened up.
0:42:56 > 0:43:00I think the challenge for those who proposed Brexit
0:43:00 > 0:43:06actually is the map of how people voted Remain and Leave.
0:43:07 > 0:43:10Because three-quarters of Belfast
0:43:10 > 0:43:12voted to remain.
0:43:12 > 0:43:16All but County Antrim and part of North Armagh,
0:43:16 > 0:43:18North Down voted to remain,
0:43:18 > 0:43:22and, therefore, there is a geopolitical dimension to this.
0:43:22 > 0:43:28You know, Ulster, so often talked about out and so often used
0:43:28 > 0:43:31as a moniker to describe Northern Ireland,
0:43:31 > 0:43:34it shrank from nine counties to six.
0:43:34 > 0:43:37Is it now to shrink to one county?
0:43:37 > 0:43:39Be careful what you wish for.
0:43:40 > 0:43:43David Cameron said the referendum would settle
0:43:43 > 0:43:47the debate over the European Union once and for all.
0:43:47 > 0:43:50In fact, the outcome has been the opposite.
0:43:50 > 0:43:53It's also prompted a whole series
0:43:53 > 0:43:57of new questions about the economy, identity
0:43:57 > 0:43:59and the future of another union,
0:43:59 > 0:44:01the United Kingdom itself.
0:44:04 > 0:44:05Conor Spackman reporting.
0:44:05 > 0:44:08The Secretary of State, Theresa Villiers, was an outspoken
0:44:08 > 0:44:10Leave campaigner. She may be in line for a promotion
0:44:10 > 0:44:13when the Tories sort themselves out at the end of the summer.
0:44:13 > 0:44:17I asked her if, amid all the uncertainty, she had a clear vision
0:44:17 > 0:44:19of a post-Brexit Northern Ireland economy.
0:44:20 > 0:44:22I think there are great opportunities
0:44:22 > 0:44:25for Northern Ireland after this Brexit vote.
0:44:25 > 0:44:28Not only will we have a good trade deal
0:44:28 > 0:44:31with the European Union, but we will be able to
0:44:31 > 0:44:34negotiate trade deals with many countries around the world,
0:44:34 > 0:44:37opening up real opportunities for Northern Ireland exports.
0:44:37 > 0:44:39You don't know, of course, what deal you will have
0:44:39 > 0:44:40with the European Union.
0:44:40 > 0:44:43Well, the fact is that the European Union sell more to us
0:44:43 > 0:44:45than we do to them, so it is in their interests
0:44:45 > 0:44:48as well as ours to have a good deal,
0:44:48 > 0:44:51and they have what is effectively a free-trade zone
0:44:51 > 0:44:53between Iceland and the Russian border.
0:44:53 > 0:44:56We are going to be part of that, we are going to get a good deal.
0:44:56 > 0:44:59Northern Ireland will continue to be a fantastic place to invest in,
0:44:59 > 0:45:02including for those that want to export to the rest of Europe.
0:45:02 > 0:45:05Again, you don't know that, and some people in Europe are saying
0:45:05 > 0:45:07they want to make an example of the UK
0:45:07 > 0:45:09so that others won't be tempted to follow suit.
0:45:09 > 0:45:12So they may not have the already-in-place tariffs,
0:45:12 > 0:45:13there may be higher tariffs,
0:45:13 > 0:45:16you just don't know. That's the point, isn't it?
0:45:16 > 0:45:20Trade negotiations are a hard-headed thing to carry out,
0:45:20 > 0:45:25and, for example, we have a significant deficit in cars.
0:45:25 > 0:45:27The rest of the EU sell far more cars to us
0:45:27 > 0:45:30than we do to them. It is not in the interests of
0:45:30 > 0:45:33German car manufacturers to have tariffs going up.
0:45:33 > 0:45:36They don't set the tariffs, Europe sets the tariffs.
0:45:36 > 0:45:39Yes, but the German government certainly listens
0:45:39 > 0:45:41to their car manufacturers, because they know their economy
0:45:41 > 0:45:43is dependent on exports.
0:45:43 > 0:45:46We are the EU's biggest export market,
0:45:46 > 0:45:49we are the fifth biggest economy in the world.
0:45:49 > 0:45:51It is in both our interests,
0:45:51 > 0:45:54both the remaining members of the EU and the UK,
0:45:54 > 0:45:56to have a good trade deal, to continue to trade
0:45:56 > 0:45:59and cooperate on matters of mutual interest.
0:45:59 > 0:46:02So much of Northern Ireland's business goes to the Republic,
0:46:02 > 0:46:03and a significant proportion of
0:46:03 > 0:46:06the Republic's business comes from Northern Ireland.
0:46:06 > 0:46:08That will be damaged by the hard border,
0:46:08 > 0:46:13which everyone now says will emerge in some form from this Brexit.
0:46:13 > 0:46:15But they're not saying that.
0:46:15 > 0:46:18Both the UK Government and the Irish government want to have
0:46:18 > 0:46:20an open border. We are already working on that.
0:46:20 > 0:46:24They want to have but it's decided by Europe!
0:46:24 > 0:46:26Ireland is part of the EU. It will have to
0:46:26 > 0:46:28abide by what the EU dictates.
0:46:28 > 0:46:32The Common Travel Area has been a part of this island for
0:46:32 > 0:46:37nearly 100 years. It survived a civil war, a World War
0:46:37 > 0:46:40and 30 years of The Troubles. It can survive a Brexit vote.
0:46:40 > 0:46:43It's in the interests of both the UK and Ireland to keep
0:46:43 > 0:46:46- that border open.- It was dependent on there being
0:46:46 > 0:46:50common laws and regulations between Ireland and Great Britain.
0:46:50 > 0:46:55That is no longer the case. The EU rules supreme.
0:46:55 > 0:47:02The Common Travel Area, there are risks already associated with having
0:47:02 > 0:47:04the Common Travel Area and an open land border
0:47:04 > 0:47:06and we manage them perfectly well today.
0:47:06 > 0:47:09We can continue to do that after we leave the European Union.
0:47:09 > 0:47:12It's perfectly possible to do that,
0:47:12 > 0:47:15with common sense on both sides, and again, it's in the interests
0:47:15 > 0:47:18of the Republic of Ireland to maintain that open border.
0:47:18 > 0:47:20So, I don't see that the EU is going to
0:47:20 > 0:47:22put barriers in the way of one of their own member states
0:47:22 > 0:47:24from continuing to trade with the UK.
0:47:24 > 0:47:26For the same reason as it may limit
0:47:26 > 0:47:29trade deals, because it wants to set some kind of an example.
0:47:29 > 0:47:32Ireland has already said, many of its politicians are saying,
0:47:32 > 0:47:35when it comes to it, Great Britain are great friends, of course this is
0:47:35 > 0:47:39a common land border, but we must put what the EU wants first.
0:47:39 > 0:47:42We must show that we are good Europeans before
0:47:42 > 0:47:45we delve into or try to develop this friendship, or continue this
0:47:45 > 0:47:48friendship with Great Britain.
0:47:48 > 0:47:51In the conversations I've had directly with Minister Flanagan,
0:47:51 > 0:47:55there is a strong will to maintain an open border
0:47:55 > 0:47:58and that is the clear position that I have been told
0:47:58 > 0:48:02in relation to the approach. It's in all our interests.
0:48:02 > 0:48:05There must be immigration and customs controls. That's a basic.
0:48:05 > 0:48:08The whole argument about immigration
0:48:08 > 0:48:11on the Leave campaign's side dictates
0:48:11 > 0:48:14that there be some kind of immigration control at the border.
0:48:14 > 0:48:18You don't have to use physical border checks
0:48:18 > 0:48:20to deal with immigration issues.
0:48:20 > 0:48:23Clearly, Irish citizens will continue to enjoy
0:48:23 > 0:48:25all the rights that they currently have today.
0:48:25 > 0:48:27They are entirely independent of free movement.
0:48:27 > 0:48:29I think it's far-fetched to think
0:48:29 > 0:48:32that somehow there will be thousands of
0:48:32 > 0:48:35non-Irish EU citizens suddenly flooding across the border
0:48:35 > 0:48:37if we were to change free movement rules,
0:48:37 > 0:48:41and if that does happen and we have changed free movement rules,
0:48:41 > 0:48:43and they come without the appropriate permissions,
0:48:43 > 0:48:46they won't be allowed to work, they won't be able to open
0:48:46 > 0:48:48a bank account, they won't be able to rent property
0:48:48 > 0:48:51and ultimately, in serious cases, they could be deported.
0:48:51 > 0:48:54So, you can control illegal migration through means
0:48:54 > 0:48:57which don't require physical checks at a border.
0:48:57 > 0:49:00The peace process, there are fears that a Brexit damages
0:49:00 > 0:49:02the peace process. Europe was so much part of
0:49:02 > 0:49:06the Good Friday Agreement, not least in terms of equality laws
0:49:06 > 0:49:09and the Human Rights Convention.
0:49:09 > 0:49:12To what extent has that been damaged by this vote?
0:49:12 > 0:49:14I don't believe it has at all. I think support for
0:49:14 > 0:49:16the political settlement and the principle of
0:49:16 > 0:49:19democracy and consent is rock-solid in Northern Ireland.
0:49:19 > 0:49:23The vast majority of people in Northern Ireland
0:49:23 > 0:49:25believe that their future should only be
0:49:25 > 0:49:27determined by democracy and consent
0:49:27 > 0:49:31and there is no suggestion that that resolute determination
0:49:31 > 0:49:33is going to be changed in any way by a Brexit vote.
0:49:33 > 0:49:37A lot of people feel though that the very basis
0:49:37 > 0:49:39of the agreement has now been changed.
0:49:39 > 0:49:41There... It is entirely...
0:49:41 > 0:49:45A Brexit vote is entirely consistent with the Belfast agreement,
0:49:45 > 0:49:48there is nothing to say that the UK can't vote to leave
0:49:48 > 0:49:50the European Union. The reality is,
0:49:50 > 0:49:54the peace settlement, the political settlement enjoys huge support.
0:49:54 > 0:49:57Politics are very stable in Northern Ireland
0:49:57 > 0:49:59in comparison to many places.
0:49:59 > 0:50:02Do you think there are many Nationalists who were becoming perhaps more content
0:50:02 > 0:50:05in Northern Ireland under the Good Friday Agreement
0:50:05 > 0:50:08will now be thinking, you know what, we need to get a united Ireland.
0:50:08 > 0:50:11I don't see there is any evidence for that...
0:50:11 > 0:50:15Apart from the hundreds of people applying for Irish passports in the last few days.
0:50:15 > 0:50:17The key concerns people have is they want to make sure that
0:50:17 > 0:50:22we retain our open border and retain all our co-operation and
0:50:22 > 0:50:24our trade with the Republic of Ireland. Absolutely, that's
0:50:24 > 0:50:27exactly what we want to do. And that's what we're going to do.
0:50:27 > 0:50:30There's every sign that Scotland's going to go for a second referendum.
0:50:30 > 0:50:33If this Brexit leads to the break-up of the United Kingdom,
0:50:33 > 0:50:35is it a price worth paying?
0:50:35 > 0:50:38I don't believe the United Kingdom is going to break up.
0:50:38 > 0:50:42The Scottish people voted by a clear margin to stay
0:50:42 > 0:50:45- in the United Kingdom. - Unanimously, actually.
0:50:45 > 0:50:49They voted by 10% to stay in the United Kingdom.
0:50:49 > 0:50:52Every area voted to stay in.
0:50:52 > 0:50:58I'm talking about the Scottish separation referendum.
0:50:58 > 0:51:02That referendum should be respected in Scotland.
0:51:02 > 0:51:05They voted in favour of staying within the United Kingdom
0:51:05 > 0:51:09and both sides agreed to respect that referendum
0:51:09 > 0:51:14and when it took place the Scots knew perfectly well there was a forthcoming referendum
0:51:14 > 0:51:18in which the United Kingdom would vote as a country on its membership of the EU.
0:51:18 > 0:51:20They have the right to stage another referendum and
0:51:20 > 0:51:24Nicola Sturgeon says she's going to enact the legislation.
0:51:24 > 0:51:28But the question around Scottish separation has been settled by
0:51:28 > 0:51:31a clear referendum. Both sides in the Edinburgh agreement
0:51:31 > 0:51:35agree to respect that there is no reason to reopen the question.
0:51:35 > 0:51:37The case for Scotland remaining in the UK is just as strong
0:51:37 > 0:51:41as it was in 2014 when the vote took place.
0:51:41 > 0:51:43- Secretary, thank you very much indeed.- Thank you.
0:51:45 > 0:51:48Theresa Villiers. The Irish government was recalled
0:51:48 > 0:51:50this week to analyse the Brexit fallout.
0:51:50 > 0:51:53The Irish European affairs Minister, Dara Murphy, has been sounding out
0:51:53 > 0:51:55other member states in Brussels today.
0:51:55 > 0:51:58I asked him if he'd found anyone ready to make allowances for what
0:51:58 > 0:52:03the Taoiseach called the unique relationships on these islands?
0:52:03 > 0:52:06I think there has been an awareness right throughout
0:52:06 > 0:52:10the campaign. I suppose that while the Republic of Ireland
0:52:10 > 0:52:13and Northern Ireland will of course have issues
0:52:13 > 0:52:16to be dealt with in the political and in the economic,
0:52:16 > 0:52:22we have other areas of... where we share issues.
0:52:22 > 0:52:23Clearly the fact that we have had
0:52:23 > 0:52:27a Common Travel Area since the 1920s, the UK and
0:52:27 > 0:52:30the Republic joined in 1973, the European Union together,
0:52:30 > 0:52:33so we have never been in a position
0:52:33 > 0:52:36where one part, the Republic of Ireland is
0:52:36 > 0:52:40out and the UK...is in, or in this case vice versa.
0:52:40 > 0:52:43So, between that and the Common Travel Area
0:52:43 > 0:52:49and I suppose the very deep links that there are between both Irelands
0:52:49 > 0:52:52really I suppose, that is well understood,
0:52:52 > 0:52:55and while we will be looking, of course, to negotiate
0:52:55 > 0:52:58from the Irish Republic's point of view
0:52:58 > 0:53:01as one of 27, we will be making the case
0:53:01 > 0:53:04that for many reasons the issues that are specific
0:53:04 > 0:53:07to the Republic of Ireland and indeed Northern Ireland
0:53:07 > 0:53:10and the rest of Great Britain are unique and will need
0:53:10 > 0:53:13to be treated in that fashion as unique.
0:53:13 > 0:53:15You have a delicate balancing act to do
0:53:15 > 0:53:19because you have to show yourselves to be good Europeans
0:53:19 > 0:53:22and also you have to protect the interests of
0:53:22 > 0:53:25your vital trade, the biggest trading partner,
0:53:25 > 0:53:26the United Kingdom.
0:53:28 > 0:53:32Yes, and I don't see that as a delicate balance.
0:53:32 > 0:53:37I think it's a fairly obvious ambition and I think it's a fair and reasonable ambition.
0:53:37 > 0:53:41We are good Europeans. We are of the view
0:53:41 > 0:53:45most of the political parties in the South would be of the view
0:53:45 > 0:53:50that the Republic's future does rest within the European Union.
0:53:50 > 0:53:53Many parties, of course, feel that the European Union needs
0:53:53 > 0:53:56to be improved, and I would agree with that part myself,
0:53:56 > 0:54:00but better to improve it from the inside rather than from the outside.
0:54:00 > 0:54:05But we don't see actually a contradiction or a conflict between
0:54:05 > 0:54:08ensuring that trade and travel between these islands
0:54:08 > 0:54:13remains as free and easy as possible for everybody
0:54:13 > 0:54:16and our ambition to stay as a very strong member
0:54:16 > 0:54:20of the European Union, in fact, the contrary is the case.
0:54:20 > 0:54:22Will you argue against trade tariffs?
0:54:22 > 0:54:27The answer to that is yes, we will be arguing to keep anything
0:54:27 > 0:54:30that reduces trade between the UK and Ireland
0:54:30 > 0:54:35and the European Union and the UK rather to an absolute minimum.
0:54:35 > 0:54:39That is not in the interests, we believe, of anybody in Europe,
0:54:39 > 0:54:41whether inside the EU or out.
0:54:41 > 0:54:46If you are outside it, you pay tariffs, and the UK will
0:54:46 > 0:54:50- be outside it? - Yes, and I said that we need to
0:54:50 > 0:54:53keep them to a minimum. It is far, far too early
0:54:53 > 0:54:56now to get into the detail of what will be
0:54:56 > 0:54:58the second part of this process, that is what
0:54:58 > 0:55:03will be the new relationship between the UK and the EU.
0:55:03 > 0:55:08First of all, of course, the process of how and when
0:55:08 > 0:55:11the UK will leave, and I think it is welcome
0:55:11 > 0:55:15that the Government in the UK has been given time now.
0:55:15 > 0:55:21The sense of the meeting tonight is that it would be clearly necessary
0:55:21 > 0:55:23that there will have to be a new Prime Minister,
0:55:23 > 0:55:26a new government in place in London,
0:55:26 > 0:55:30that can negotiate with the other 27 member states.
0:55:30 > 0:55:32And what comes from those negotiations
0:55:32 > 0:55:35will take time to see the detail of them.
0:55:35 > 0:55:37Gerry Adams says the Irish government must deal
0:55:37 > 0:55:39with this on an all-Ireland basis.
0:55:39 > 0:55:44Will you feel any pressure, any requirement to speak out
0:55:44 > 0:55:46for those nationalists in Northern Ireland
0:55:46 > 0:55:48who voted to remain in the EU and who now feel
0:55:48 > 0:55:51- that their voice has been silenced?- It is clear
0:55:51 > 0:55:54that there will be many voices supporting the issues
0:55:54 > 0:55:57that will affect the people of Northern Ireland,
0:55:57 > 0:55:59the Republic of Ireland and the UK.
0:55:59 > 0:56:02I don't actually see that those voices will need
0:56:02 > 0:56:05to be voices that will contradict each other
0:56:05 > 0:56:08and certainly in any bilateral discussions we have had,
0:56:08 > 0:56:12and in fact the Taoiseach has very much welcomed
0:56:12 > 0:56:14David Cameron's statement that
0:56:14 > 0:56:17Northern Ireland would have to have a special place
0:56:17 > 0:56:20within these negotiations. So, I don't see it
0:56:20 > 0:56:23that the Republic will be arguing for Northern Ireland
0:56:23 > 0:56:25and someone else will be arguing against it.
0:56:25 > 0:56:30In fact, I think there is a very good awareness of the journey we've
0:56:30 > 0:56:32travelled in these islands and the unique position that we have.
0:56:32 > 0:56:34Dara Murphy.
0:56:34 > 0:56:36We were talking earlier about Scotland where the SNP say
0:56:36 > 0:56:39they're gearing up for a second referendum on independence.
0:56:39 > 0:56:43Of course, the last one was defeated by a significant margin
0:56:43 > 0:56:45but could the Brexit shift opinion?
0:56:45 > 0:56:47Darran Marshall's been finding out.
0:56:53 > 0:56:56For Scotland, the campaign continues
0:56:56 > 0:56:58and the dream shall never die.
0:57:00 > 0:57:03Alex Salmond's resignation speech. Scotland had
0:57:03 > 0:57:06rejected his lifetime ambition of independence.
0:57:07 > 0:57:10Should Scotland be an independent country?
0:57:11 > 0:57:13No.
0:57:13 > 0:57:15CHEERING
0:57:15 > 0:57:18It appeared dreams of independence had been checked -
0:57:18 > 0:57:19the union secured.
0:57:23 > 0:57:26And even the politician, dubbed by the Daily Mail
0:57:26 > 0:57:29"the most dangerous woman in Britain", Nicola Sturgeon,
0:57:29 > 0:57:32seemed unwilling to commit to a new referendum.
0:57:34 > 0:57:36Overnight, everything changed.
0:57:36 > 0:57:42Let June 23rd go down in our history as our independence day.
0:57:44 > 0:57:47Lisburn man, David Clegg, is the political editor
0:57:47 > 0:57:49of Scotland's Daily Record,
0:57:49 > 0:57:52traditionally viewed as a Unionist paper.
0:57:52 > 0:57:55He believes Britain's decision to exit Europe
0:57:55 > 0:57:57could lead to Scotland quitting the UK.
0:57:58 > 0:58:01We are only two years away from the independence referendum,
0:58:01 > 0:58:03which returned a decisive "no" result,
0:58:03 > 0:58:07but a lot of that was predicated on Scotland being
0:58:07 > 0:58:10a member of the European Union through its membership of the UK,
0:58:10 > 0:58:13so I think a lot of people are reconsidering their position.
0:58:15 > 0:58:17Do you think the UK will now break up?
0:58:17 > 0:58:19Um, with a bit of luck.
0:58:19 > 0:58:22- Yes.- I hope so.- I hope so,
0:58:22 > 0:58:25Scotland needs independence.
0:58:25 > 0:58:28On the afternoon we filmed on this Glasgow high street,
0:58:28 > 0:58:32most believe Scottish independence inevitable and the Union doomed.
0:58:32 > 0:58:35Well, hopefully Scotland will go its own way.
0:58:35 > 0:58:38- Do you think the UK will break up? - No, not at all.
0:58:38 > 0:58:42We'll all stay together. Why not? We love Scotland, we love Britain.
0:58:42 > 0:58:45Independence is going to come now, yeah.
0:58:45 > 0:58:47I think the UK will break up now.
0:58:47 > 0:58:51Humza Yousaf, campaign director for the SNP in the referendum,
0:58:51 > 0:58:55credits the successful Remain campaign north of the border
0:58:55 > 0:58:57with its positive view of Europe,
0:58:57 > 0:59:01something he feels the campaign elsewhere failed to advocate.
0:59:01 > 0:59:03I think the immigration debate
0:59:03 > 0:59:08and the toxicity of that debate took grip in many areas of the country.
0:59:08 > 0:59:12I think if for 30 years successive UK governments have told you
0:59:12 > 0:59:15that it is the immigrants' fault then, eventually,
0:59:15 > 0:59:18the chickens frankly come home to roost.
0:59:18 > 0:59:21Last Friday, in front of the saltire and the European flag,
0:59:21 > 0:59:25Nicola Sturgeon revealed a second independence referendum
0:59:25 > 0:59:27was an option she was considering.
0:59:27 > 0:59:31Scotland faces the prospect of being taken
0:59:31 > 0:59:34out of the EU against our will.
0:59:34 > 0:59:38I regard that as democratically unacceptable.
0:59:38 > 0:59:42And it is, therefore, a statement of the obvious that the option
0:59:42 > 0:59:45of a second referendum must be on the table.
0:59:47 > 0:59:50If you asked me a month ago, would there be another
0:59:50 > 0:59:53independence referendum in the next few years? I would have said no.
0:59:53 > 0:59:57This has certainly changed the game entirely.
0:59:57 > 1:00:00This time, Scottish nationalists feel that the decision
1:00:00 > 1:00:02on a second referendum has been forced
1:00:02 > 1:00:05by those who voted to leave Europe.
1:00:06 > 1:00:10Anybody with even a little bit of foresight would have been able
1:00:10 > 1:00:12to see that this scenario that has played itself out,
1:00:12 > 1:00:15of Scotland wanting to stay within the European Union
1:00:15 > 1:00:18and the rest of the UK or parts of it wanting to leave,
1:00:18 > 1:00:20could easily have played out.
1:00:20 > 1:00:23Those pro-union Brexiters knew fine well that this could be
1:00:23 > 1:00:25a situation that arose.
1:00:27 > 1:00:31The Tory leader in Scotland campaigned for a Remain vote.
1:00:31 > 1:00:33Despite the overall result of the referendum,
1:00:33 > 1:00:37she doesn't believe the end of the United Kingdom is inevitable.
1:00:37 > 1:00:40We do not address the challenges of leaving the European Union
1:00:40 > 1:00:43by leaving our own union of nations,
1:00:43 > 1:00:45our biggest market and our closest friends.
1:00:45 > 1:00:49David Clegg believes the United Kingdom has been sacrificed
1:00:49 > 1:00:50by English voters.
1:00:52 > 1:00:55England seems to be turning inwards towards itself.
1:00:55 > 1:00:58I think that was an expression of English nationalism
1:00:58 > 1:01:00that was part of the reasons for the Leave result.
1:01:02 > 1:01:05The voters in England had been warned not only that a Leave vote
1:01:05 > 1:01:09would likely lead to renewed calls for Scottish independence
1:01:09 > 1:01:14but also lead to a renewed push for a united Ireland from Sinn Fein.
1:01:14 > 1:01:17They have ignored both of those elements whenever they've been
1:01:17 > 1:01:20making their decision and have voted Leave regardless.
1:01:20 > 1:01:24The referendum was a UK-wide poll with one overall decision
1:01:24 > 1:01:27taken by the electorate, but Humza Yousaf believes many Scots value
1:01:27 > 1:01:30the union with Europe over that with England.
1:01:31 > 1:01:35The UK that people in Scotland voted to remain a part of
1:01:35 > 1:01:39in September 2014, 55% of our population who chose to remain
1:01:39 > 1:01:42in that UK - that UK doesn't exist anymore.
1:01:42 > 1:01:44That UK has ceased to exist.
1:01:45 > 1:01:48We were promised in the run-up to that Scottish Independence
1:01:48 > 1:01:52referendum that the only way to protect Scotland's place
1:01:52 > 1:01:55in the European Union was to vote to remain in the United Kingdom.
1:01:55 > 1:01:58That has proven to be the biggest lie that has been told
1:01:58 > 1:02:00in modern British political history.
1:02:02 > 1:02:05Hundreds, if not thousands of people, now messaging me personally
1:02:05 > 1:02:07in the last week alone, since the result,
1:02:07 > 1:02:09to say that they want to change their vote.
1:02:09 > 1:02:12They were staunch unionists, staunch No supporters,
1:02:12 > 1:02:16and never would they have thought they would have switched their vote.
1:02:16 > 1:02:19But now, because of what's happened, they would rather be independent
1:02:19 > 1:02:23in Europe than be part of the United Kingdom outside of Europe.
1:02:24 > 1:02:28The DUP's Christopher Stalford campaigned for a Leave vote
1:02:28 > 1:02:29in the referendum.
1:02:29 > 1:02:32He isn't convinced that the Scottish Government will call
1:02:32 > 1:02:33a fresh independence poll.
1:02:35 > 1:02:38I believe to a large extent the SNP are bluffing,
1:02:38 > 1:02:41in terms of the sabre rattling that we have seen
1:02:41 > 1:02:43coming from Nicola Sturgeon and others,
1:02:43 > 1:02:46and if you look at her language very carefully,
1:02:46 > 1:02:49what she has been saying is a referendum is on the table
1:02:49 > 1:02:54or highly likely. She hasn't come straight out and called for one,
1:02:54 > 1:02:59and I suspect the reason for that is she knows that if she were to come straight out
1:02:59 > 1:03:02and call for one, there would be a very negative reaction
1:03:02 > 1:03:04amongst the Scottish electorate.
1:03:04 > 1:03:07The view from and about Scotland.
1:03:07 > 1:03:11The former First Minister David Trimble was a supporter
1:03:11 > 1:03:13of the Leave campaign. I asked him for his assessment
1:03:13 > 1:03:16of Northern Ireland's future outside the EU.
1:03:17 > 1:03:21The New Yorker magazine characterises the vote for Brexit
1:03:21 > 1:03:26as a John Cleese figure stepping off the edge of a cliff.
1:03:26 > 1:03:30Is Northern Ireland stepping off the edge of a cliff into the unknown?
1:03:30 > 1:03:33I think there will be some volatility in the market,
1:03:33 > 1:03:35there already has been.
1:03:35 > 1:03:38I am sure that will steady down quite soon.
1:03:38 > 1:03:426-12 months from now, people will see that this is a good thing.
1:03:42 > 1:03:45A good thing in what way for Northern Ireland,
1:03:45 > 1:03:48which might end up, according to some commentators,
1:03:48 > 1:03:51cut off from the Republic, its main trade partner,
1:03:51 > 1:03:55and also perhaps in a couple of years' time, cut off from Scotland,
1:03:55 > 1:03:56if it becomes independent.
1:03:56 > 1:03:59There's a lot of exaggeration about this
1:03:59 > 1:04:01and particularly about the single market.
1:04:01 > 1:04:04It's best to be quite clear about this.
1:04:04 > 1:04:08There will be, as a result of our leaving the European Union,
1:04:08 > 1:04:11the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic will be
1:04:11 > 1:04:13the European Union's border,
1:04:13 > 1:04:15but that doesn't mean the South is cut off.
1:04:15 > 1:04:20It does mean there will be tariffs on the border.
1:04:20 > 1:04:23People keep talking about being cut off from the single market.
1:04:23 > 1:04:27There's 150 countries in the world that are not part
1:04:27 > 1:04:28of the European Union,
1:04:28 > 1:04:32and none of them are cut off from the single market.
1:04:32 > 1:04:35The consequence of not being part of the European Union
1:04:35 > 1:04:38is that they have to pay the tariffs, but the tariffs are low.
1:04:38 > 1:04:42Is Europe going to increase the tariffs? Not if they have any sense.
1:04:42 > 1:04:45I know there are some people in the European Commission...
1:04:45 > 1:04:47There is talk of punishing.
1:04:47 > 1:04:50That is precisely what I was going to say.
1:04:50 > 1:04:53Some people in the European Union, displaying their usual
1:04:53 > 1:04:56level of judgment, by saying they are going to punish,
1:04:56 > 1:04:59but you will notice what Angela Merkel says,
1:04:59 > 1:05:02that it's time for them to behave in a grown-up way.
1:05:02 > 1:05:07I think you'll find that our friends in Dublin will also be acting
1:05:07 > 1:05:12in a grown-up way and be saying to Europe that what you should be doing
1:05:12 > 1:05:14in this case is not increase your tariffs
1:05:14 > 1:05:16but reduce your tariffs to increase trade.
1:05:16 > 1:05:21But there's no indication that Ireland will be able to plead
1:05:21 > 1:05:24a special relationship because of the land border.
1:05:24 > 1:05:27I am not suggesting that they should.
1:05:27 > 1:05:30In the long run, and by that I mean in the next couple of years,
1:05:30 > 1:05:35Ireland will have a decision to take about its future relationships
1:05:35 > 1:05:41and whether Europe is more important to it than the British market.
1:05:41 > 1:05:48They followed us into the European Common Market, as it was.
1:05:48 > 1:05:51Followed us, went in on the same day, because they knew they had
1:05:51 > 1:05:56to go in with us so as not to find themselves disadvantaged.
1:05:56 > 1:06:00But there is not even an argument in the Republic
1:06:00 > 1:06:02about whether or not they should remain...
1:06:02 > 1:06:05Wait and see.
1:06:05 > 1:06:10Discussions are already, I think, taking place in government corridors
1:06:10 > 1:06:12and we'll see what happens.
1:06:12 > 1:06:17I am quite sure that our friends in Dublin will be thinking carefully
1:06:17 > 1:06:20and there's also a wider question about the future
1:06:20 > 1:06:22of the European Union, but that is another matter.
1:06:22 > 1:06:28What about the concept of a hard border now between North and South?
1:06:28 > 1:06:32It's pretty much an inevitability according to some commentators.
1:06:32 > 1:06:36There will be identity checks, there will be customs checks,
1:06:36 > 1:06:39which some people say, and Jonathan Powell,
1:06:39 > 1:06:44the right-hand man of Tony Blair, says there will be a hard border
1:06:44 > 1:06:48which will create difficulties in the relationship between North and South.
1:06:48 > 1:06:49Jonathan should calm down
1:06:49 > 1:06:55and have a look at the history of the matter from 1920 to 1972.
1:06:55 > 1:07:00You might say there was a hard border - it wasn't very hard.
1:07:00 > 1:07:03There is no desire that I know of, in either London or Dublin,
1:07:03 > 1:07:06to change the common travel area.
1:07:06 > 1:07:09The question is - what does Brussels do?
1:07:09 > 1:07:13Here again, I think our friends in Dublin have to be reminding
1:07:13 > 1:07:18the people in Brussels of the existence of a common travel area.
1:07:18 > 1:07:21What about immigration?
1:07:21 > 1:07:25Part of the Brexit argument was to control
1:07:25 > 1:07:28the borders of the United Kingdom.
1:07:28 > 1:07:32Will there be, at this hard border between North and South,
1:07:32 > 1:07:35stricter immigration controls?
1:07:35 > 1:07:39That's where you have some practical problems,
1:07:39 > 1:07:43just as we have huge practical problems with the other borders
1:07:43 > 1:07:45of the United Kingdom.
1:07:45 > 1:07:50We only have effective controls at the major points of entry,
1:07:50 > 1:07:55but you've got to cast your mind back to what things were like before 1972,
1:07:55 > 1:07:58and I think some people just are exaggerating this,
1:07:58 > 1:08:01and exaggerating this for a purpose.
1:08:01 > 1:08:03They no longer have that purpose,
1:08:03 > 1:08:06so you might find that commentary begins to calm down.
1:08:07 > 1:08:11Scotland, the indications are that the Scottish Parliament
1:08:11 > 1:08:16is going to enact legislation to have a second referendum on independence.
1:08:16 > 1:08:18If Scotland becomes independent,
1:08:18 > 1:08:21have we then effectively, in Northern Ireland,
1:08:21 > 1:08:24become cut off from the Republic and from Scotland?
1:08:24 > 1:08:28There's a lot of noise going on at the moment
1:08:28 > 1:08:30and quite a lot of posturing.
1:08:30 > 1:08:37The fact of the matter is that the Scottish people do not want another referendum -
1:08:37 > 1:08:41we know that from opinion polls taken place after the last referendum.
1:08:41 > 1:08:45That referendum was very scarring.
1:08:45 > 1:08:47It was a hugely unpleasant experience
1:08:47 > 1:08:50and there is no stomach for doing it again.
1:08:50 > 1:08:53Whatever the leadership of the SNP may say,
1:08:53 > 1:08:59they know that the economic proposals they put to the Scottish people in that referendum
1:08:59 > 1:09:02have been blown out of the water completely by the changes
1:09:02 > 1:09:06that have taken place, so what we are getting at the moment,
1:09:06 > 1:09:09and this is my judgment on the matter, is that the leadership
1:09:09 > 1:09:11of the SNP are talking this up
1:09:11 > 1:09:14because they had talked it up beforehand, but they are actually
1:09:14 > 1:09:18trying to construct processes that will give them excuses for inaction.
1:09:20 > 1:09:23Lord Trimble. Let's talk to the current batch of decision takers
1:09:23 > 1:09:25at Stormont and indeed at Westminster.
1:09:25 > 1:09:29Ian Paisley is there for us. Ian Paisley, the Brexiteers are already
1:09:29 > 1:09:33being accused of resiling from previous positions,
1:09:33 > 1:09:38of doing U-turns, not going to give money we get back from Europe
1:09:38 > 1:09:41to the NHS any more. Why should we believe that anyone
1:09:41 > 1:09:44in Northern Ireland will benefit in terms of the money
1:09:44 > 1:09:46that would have gone to the farmers, for example?
1:09:46 > 1:09:49How can we be sure that any benefits will accrue to the people
1:09:49 > 1:09:52of Northern Ireland as a result of this vote?
1:09:52 > 1:09:54Good evening and thank you for having me on your programme.
1:09:54 > 1:09:58I think there's a couple of key points that have to be made
1:09:58 > 1:10:01in order to address that, and address that fairly.
1:10:01 > 1:10:03In Northern Ireland we should be used to this.
1:10:03 > 1:10:06We are now entering into a very important
1:10:06 > 1:10:10and intensive phase of negotiations immediately after the most important
1:10:10 > 1:10:17and revolutionary referendum that we've had in the United Kingdom.
1:10:17 > 1:10:22And I think the revolution we're now into will open this negotiation
1:10:22 > 1:10:27and allow us to claim back that money and to negotiate those deals.
1:10:27 > 1:10:29But I would pose this question.
1:10:29 > 1:10:33After 40 years, more than 40 years, of being a member of this
1:10:33 > 1:10:36great panacea, this wonderful club,
1:10:36 > 1:10:40of having all of the great experts of the world,
1:10:40 > 1:10:43from presidents to bank chiefs, the elites,
1:10:43 > 1:10:46telling the ordinary people of the United Kingdom
1:10:46 > 1:10:48you'd better stick with this club,
1:10:48 > 1:10:51the vast majority of the people in the United Kingdom,
1:10:51 > 1:10:54of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, said, "We're leaving.
1:10:54 > 1:10:56"We don't like this. It's not working."
1:10:56 > 1:10:59I'm not sure you've answered the question as to whether or not
1:10:59 > 1:11:00any money is going to come here.
1:11:00 > 1:11:03The point is that... People are missing the key point here.
1:11:03 > 1:11:09This is a revolution. The public have rejected Europe
1:11:09 > 1:11:12and that means that everything is on the table and we can start to now
1:11:12 > 1:11:17open up the option for negotiating how our money is better spent.
1:11:17 > 1:11:21That means we have a blank page and that's a positive thing.
1:11:21 > 1:11:23- Claire Hanna, are you reassured? - No, I'm not.
1:11:23 > 1:11:27We have been asking for months what the plan is post-Brexit.
1:11:27 > 1:11:29There are clearly wasn't one and clearly we can't trust
1:11:29 > 1:11:31the same people who have spoofed
1:11:31 > 1:11:34on things like money for the NHS and on immigration,
1:11:34 > 1:11:37and have been proven wrong already on all those things.
1:11:37 > 1:11:40But what is clear is that Northern Ireland voted to stay
1:11:40 > 1:11:43and we will be seeking to represent that, and we'll be using
1:11:43 > 1:11:46whatever democratic method we can do to do that.
1:11:46 > 1:11:49- We're not go to simply... - The point is there aren't any.
1:11:49 > 1:11:51There are, actually. There's a very long road to travel
1:11:51 > 1:11:55before any Brexit is triggered.
1:11:55 > 1:11:58There's no plan in London and we're not just going to allow
1:11:58 > 1:12:01- Northern Ireland to wash along in its wake.- That's not true.
1:12:01 > 1:12:04You have to remember, we currently have probably the most
1:12:04 > 1:12:07imaginative constitutional settlement in the world,
1:12:07 > 1:12:10in that people could here can be British or Irish or both,
1:12:10 > 1:12:12and that took creativity and solutions
1:12:12 > 1:12:15and bringing a lot of people together for the ideas.
1:12:15 > 1:12:18And we think there's a lot on the table, there are models out there.
1:12:18 > 1:12:20Hold on, Ian Paisley, I will come back to you.
1:12:20 > 1:12:23You'll have a perfectly good opportunity to reply.
1:12:23 > 1:12:25John O'Dowd, all this talk about
1:12:25 > 1:12:28we can delay it, we can do this... You can't.
1:12:28 > 1:12:31Westminster will decide if and when
1:12:31 > 1:12:33the United Kingdom pulls out of Europe.
1:12:33 > 1:12:36This hasn't been a popular revolution,
1:12:36 > 1:12:38as has been portrayed by Ian Paisley Jr.
1:12:38 > 1:12:42It hasn't been a revolution in the style of the Tooting Popular Front.
1:12:42 > 1:12:46It has been a fallout among Eton toffs, which has dragged
1:12:46 > 1:12:48ordinary men and women across these islands into a dispute
1:12:48 > 1:12:52which was not of their making, but they will pay the consequences.
1:12:52 > 1:12:55You said it's the biggest social and economic shock since Partition.
1:12:55 > 1:12:57- It is.- It's a kind of a revolution, isn't it?
1:12:57 > 1:13:00Well, there's been many revolutions down through history,
1:13:00 > 1:13:01not all of them have been good revolutions.
1:13:01 > 1:13:04Sometimes you need a counter-revolution
1:13:04 > 1:13:07or a new revolution to bring the reality of the situation into focus.
1:13:07 > 1:13:11The most worrying video which you have shown us tonight
1:13:11 > 1:13:12was Theresa Villiers.
1:13:12 > 1:13:15Theresa Villiers clearly doesn't have a clue
1:13:15 > 1:13:17about the economic make-up of this island,
1:13:17 > 1:13:20the social or cultural make-up of this island
1:13:20 > 1:13:22and the history of this island.
1:13:22 > 1:13:26And the best thing Theresa Villiers can do ahead of any negotiations
1:13:26 > 1:13:27is go home.
1:13:27 > 1:13:30I don't suspect the next one will be any better,
1:13:30 > 1:13:34but after watching that tonight, Theresa Villiers needs to go home
1:13:34 > 1:13:36and allow those who understand the make-up of this island
1:13:36 > 1:13:39to get on with the negotiation because there will be a deal,
1:13:39 > 1:13:41I've no doubt there will be a deal.
1:13:41 > 1:13:43But what is a good deal to me
1:13:43 > 1:13:46and to the people of the North and the people of Ireland is a totally
1:13:46 > 1:13:50different deal to what would be good for Theresa Villiers and others.
1:13:50 > 1:13:52And we have to ensure that the Dublin government,
1:13:52 > 1:13:56local politicians, work out a deal which recognises
1:13:56 > 1:13:59the political, social and economic history of this island
1:13:59 > 1:14:01and protects the rights of everyone on the island.
1:14:01 > 1:14:05Do you think, Mike Nesbitt, that an all-Ireland approach is required
1:14:05 > 1:14:08to get the best deal for everyone in this place?
1:14:09 > 1:14:12What I think, Noel, is that the result is a result
1:14:12 > 1:14:15and it's now up to us as politicians to implement it.
1:14:15 > 1:14:18But the surprising thing is that there is no plan.
1:14:18 > 1:14:20The Northern Ireland executive doesn't have a plan,
1:14:20 > 1:14:23the UK government doesn't have a plan, Europe doesn't have a plan.
1:14:23 > 1:14:25And most shockingly of all,
1:14:25 > 1:14:28those who led the Brexit campaign do not have a plan.
1:14:28 > 1:14:30And that is why we have now entered
1:14:30 > 1:14:34an era of uncertainty, which will last longer than the two years
1:14:34 > 1:14:37that will follow the triggering of this Article 50.
1:14:37 > 1:14:39And what we need is some certainty.
1:14:39 > 1:14:41And those who masterminded Brexit
1:14:41 > 1:14:45have to manage expectations because, as people have said,
1:14:45 > 1:14:48people are expecting £350 million a week for the NHS.
1:14:48 > 1:14:49That money doesn't exist...
1:14:49 > 1:14:53And should never have been promised, according to Nigel Farage.
1:14:53 > 1:14:56We were promised that there would be drastic action on immigration.
1:14:56 > 1:14:58It's now clear from what Dan and Anne said
1:14:58 > 1:15:00that's not going to happen either.
1:15:00 > 1:15:03Coming the other way, Brussels are saying, "Get on with it.
1:15:03 > 1:15:05"And, if you want to stay in the single market,
1:15:05 > 1:15:07"you will do it on our terms, by our rules."
1:15:07 > 1:15:09The three of you have said there's no plan.
1:15:09 > 1:15:12Ian Paisley was saying all along there is. What is the plan?
1:15:12 > 1:15:15I think, first of all, we have to...
1:15:15 > 1:15:18we must address the denial that this has taken place.
1:15:18 > 1:15:21And there's a denial that there's now going to be a consequence.
1:15:21 > 1:15:25There is a consequence and the consequence is negotiations now.
1:15:25 > 1:15:28On Monday, in the House, the Prime Minister outlined that he had
1:15:28 > 1:15:32already established a working group within the Cabinet.
1:15:32 > 1:15:35The first meeting of that working group has already taken place.
1:15:35 > 1:15:38Indeed, parties like my own have already been approached
1:15:38 > 1:15:42to make contact and to start putting the ideas on the table.
1:15:42 > 1:15:45So if others are being left out or are excluding themselves
1:15:45 > 1:15:48because they're not keeping up with what's happening in the class,
1:15:48 > 1:15:49that's a matter for them.
1:15:49 > 1:15:52So the plan is let's negotiate and see what happens.
1:15:52 > 1:15:56- It's not much of a plan.- I think, in all negotiations... Remember,
1:15:56 > 1:16:00this is about our money and freeing our money so we don't have to
1:16:00 > 1:16:03give it to Europe, and then wait for Europe to give some of it back
1:16:03 > 1:16:06and then spend the rest the way they wish to spend it.
1:16:06 > 1:16:10So we are working to make sure we can get that money spent on ourselves.
1:16:10 > 1:16:12And out of that, Northern Ireland,
1:16:12 > 1:16:15even by a minor calculation, using the Barnett formula alone,
1:16:15 > 1:16:18will be almost £1 billion, almost £600 million,
1:16:18 > 1:16:21better off a year, every year, going forward
1:16:21 > 1:16:23from the day we actually release ourselves from Europe.
1:16:23 > 1:16:25Let me bring in John O'Dowd on that important point.
1:16:25 > 1:16:29I think those who support the Leave campaign should be careful with throwing out figures
1:16:29 > 1:16:32because their figures have proven to be wrong.
1:16:32 > 1:16:34If you start throwing out grandiose figures now,
1:16:34 > 1:16:36they could be proved wrong in the future.
1:16:36 > 1:16:38So let's approach it in a sensible, rational fashion.
1:16:38 > 1:16:43Firstly, the Prime Minister is organising negotiations.
1:16:43 > 1:16:45- There is no Prime Minister. - There is a Prime Minister!
1:16:45 > 1:16:50David Cameron stepped out of Downing Street on Friday morning
1:16:50 > 1:16:54and announced he was standing down because he couldn't lead
1:16:54 > 1:16:56the Brexit negotiations to leave
1:16:56 > 1:16:58because he didn't... He didn't say these words,
1:16:58 > 1:17:01but he doesn't have the control of the Conservative Party.
1:17:01 > 1:17:04- You're in denial. - Please let everyone else speak.
1:17:04 > 1:17:06He doesn't have the control of the Conservative Party
1:17:06 > 1:17:08and he doesn't have the backing of various regions
1:17:08 > 1:17:10of what is referred to as the United Kingdom,
1:17:10 > 1:17:13so there is no Prime Minister to lead negotiations.
1:17:13 > 1:17:17What we have to do and ensure is that the rights of entitlement
1:17:17 > 1:17:22of the people on this island, in the North, who voted against the Leave,
1:17:22 > 1:17:24they voted to Remain, are protected.
1:17:24 > 1:17:28Those aren't different from the rights of the people in the North of England or Scotland or Wales.
1:17:28 > 1:17:30They are in a geographical and political sense.
1:17:30 > 1:17:33We are the only part of these islands
1:17:33 > 1:17:35with a boarder now with the EU.
1:17:35 > 1:17:38That has a reality for those people you were speaking to
1:17:38 > 1:17:39in South Armagh and South Down
1:17:39 > 1:17:42and it will have a reality for us all across these islands,
1:17:42 > 1:17:44so we have to deal with that.
1:17:44 > 1:17:47We are the only people who have a contested part -
1:17:47 > 1:17:50well, Scotland is certainly entering that territory, which is protected
1:17:50 > 1:17:53under an international agreement known as the Good Friday Agreement.
1:17:53 > 1:17:56So all those things have to be taken into account and they have to
1:17:56 > 1:17:59be dealt with, and our rights and entitlements have to be supported.
1:17:59 > 1:18:02In what way, Mike Nesbitt, might that led to
1:18:02 > 1:18:06some kind of different deal for the people of Northern Ireland?
1:18:06 > 1:18:09- I don't know the answer to that. - Would you like to see one?
1:18:09 > 1:18:11- I would like...- A special deal.
1:18:11 > 1:18:14I'd like the Brexiteers to tell us what the plan is.
1:18:14 > 1:18:16Now, I've said I accept the result.
1:18:16 > 1:18:19I also think it would be a very foolish unionist who did not
1:18:19 > 1:18:22acknowledge the two component parts to the United Kingdom -
1:18:22 > 1:18:25Scotland and Northern Ireland - had majorities voting to remain.
1:18:25 > 1:18:28I am amazed the Secretary of State is not aware
1:18:28 > 1:18:31that there are nationalists who, over the last few years, were
1:18:31 > 1:18:35content to live in Northern Ireland, within the United Kingdom,
1:18:35 > 1:18:37because we were also in Europe
1:18:37 > 1:18:38and part of their identity
1:18:38 > 1:18:41was their ability to express their Europeanness.
1:18:41 > 1:18:43For them, this has changed everything
1:18:43 > 1:18:46and Unionists need to listen to them and be empathetic to them
1:18:46 > 1:18:51because this is potentially a nationalist Anglo-Irish agreement,
1:18:51 > 1:18:54where people from outside have come in
1:18:54 > 1:18:56and impose something against their will.
1:18:56 > 1:18:59Let me ask Claire Hanna for a nationalist view on that.
1:18:59 > 1:19:02The point is, yes, it's not just a nationalist view to say
1:19:02 > 1:19:05people here know better for people here and not people in England.
1:19:05 > 1:19:06That's not just a nationalist view,
1:19:06 > 1:19:08that is the whole purpose of devolution.
1:19:08 > 1:19:12The DUP can't keep picking and choosing which majorities they'll go far.
1:19:12 > 1:19:15They don't agree... The whole of the UK agrees...
1:19:15 > 1:19:18supports equal marriage and they won't have that in here.
1:19:18 > 1:19:21The whole of the UK flies our flag, they won't have that here.
1:19:21 > 1:19:23And it took them decades to accept the Good Friday Agreement.
1:19:23 > 1:19:25It's no wonder they don't like Europe -
1:19:25 > 1:19:28that was about pooling your ideas and your resources and your power
1:19:28 > 1:19:31to get a better deal for everyone and they threw that away.
1:19:31 > 1:19:33But that included the principle of consent.
1:19:33 > 1:19:35And consent has not been given
1:19:35 > 1:19:37to change the constitutional status
1:19:37 > 1:19:39or to change the status of us being in Europe.
1:19:39 > 1:19:43So there are options, and we need to not just wash along, as I say,
1:19:43 > 1:19:47we need to do what Nicola Sturgeon is doing and she's going there,
1:19:47 > 1:19:50she's negotiating. We need to be in Dublin, we need to be in Brussels
1:19:50 > 1:19:52and we need to be having those conversations.
1:19:52 > 1:19:55And we need to be having them as well. There's no more money.
1:19:55 > 1:19:58The fiscal tightening that's coming in the autumn budget,
1:19:58 > 1:19:59there's no more money coming from there.
1:19:59 > 1:20:03Ian Paisley, will you be dealing directly with Dublin to figure out
1:20:03 > 1:20:06the best way to help the majority of people in this island?
1:20:06 > 1:20:08Again, I'm not the one in denial.
1:20:08 > 1:20:12I believe that a good negotiation is a listening negotiation
1:20:12 > 1:20:13as well as a talking negotiation.
1:20:13 > 1:20:16Of course we will be making the points already
1:20:16 > 1:20:17to Her Majesty's Government,
1:20:17 > 1:20:20these are the issues that will affect this part
1:20:20 > 1:20:22of the United Kingdom, these are the issues which must be addressed.
1:20:22 > 1:20:25And in order to form a complete picture of that,
1:20:25 > 1:20:27of course there must be good, responsive,
1:20:27 > 1:20:30cooperative discussions with the Irish government
1:20:30 > 1:20:33and between the devolved Assembly and the Irish government.
1:20:33 > 1:20:35It's important that all the people around the table -
1:20:35 > 1:20:38that'll include Sinn Fein the SDLP, and the Ulster Unionists,
1:20:38 > 1:20:40if they all want to be there -
1:20:40 > 1:20:42that they make those points and feed into that
1:20:42 > 1:20:45because that Cabinet working group will be more than just
1:20:45 > 1:20:47a Conservative Party working group.
1:20:47 > 1:20:49We've got to address these points.
1:20:49 > 1:20:52I really don't mind what the machinations are
1:20:52 > 1:20:54within the Conservative Party.
1:20:54 > 1:20:56But I was part of a national movement
1:20:56 > 1:20:58that was led by people like Gisele Stuart,
1:20:58 > 1:21:01hardly an Eton toff, Kate Hoey, hardly an Eton toff,
1:21:01 > 1:21:04people who were making key points and saying, you know,
1:21:04 > 1:21:08the little person in the United Kingdom is left out by this entire agreement.
1:21:08 > 1:21:11They want to have a new beginning and a better start for the UK
1:21:11 > 1:21:12and that's what we're doing,
1:21:12 > 1:21:16and I don't ignore the fact that there were more people
1:21:16 > 1:21:19in Northern Ireland voted to remain than there were to leave.
1:21:19 > 1:21:22But I also recognise the fact that in my constituency,
1:21:22 > 1:21:26in Mike's constituency in South Antrim, across Northern Ireland,
1:21:26 > 1:21:29the vast majority in those areas said, "We want to leave."
1:21:29 > 1:21:32We must make sure that that balance is brought to bear.
1:21:32 > 1:21:34Let's get everyone else in, if I may.
1:21:34 > 1:21:37John O'Dowd, talk of border pollers -
1:21:37 > 1:21:39distracting and nonsensical, isn't it?
1:21:39 > 1:21:44No, because when we have a constitutional crisis,
1:21:44 > 1:21:47as has been landed upon us by the Brexit vote,
1:21:47 > 1:21:49then we will always put forward
1:21:49 > 1:21:54that a united Ireland is the most sensible alternative moving forward.
1:21:54 > 1:21:57As an Irish republican, I reserve that right on any occasion
1:21:57 > 1:21:58to demand a border poll.
1:21:58 > 1:22:02I believe that the social economic destiny of this island
1:22:02 > 1:22:05is within the reunification of Ireland.
1:22:05 > 1:22:08But you that know a border poll would not win.
1:22:08 > 1:22:09No, I don't know that.
1:22:09 > 1:22:12Those who put that back to me say it is not going to win.
1:22:12 > 1:22:14I put the challenge out to them - let's have one.
1:22:14 > 1:22:16Let's have a sensible, mature debate.
1:22:16 > 1:22:17Let's have an economic debate on it.
1:22:17 > 1:22:20I have always believed in Irish unity and probably believe in it
1:22:20 > 1:22:23even more now, but it still has to be agreed and planned and we have
1:22:23 > 1:22:26just seen what a leap into the dark is in a referendum that
1:22:26 > 1:22:27doesn't have a clear question.
1:22:27 > 1:22:32We have just seen the passions that is arises in people, so it would be
1:22:32 > 1:22:33unstable and it would be lost.
1:22:33 > 1:22:35But I think it is important to say, fundamentally,
1:22:35 > 1:22:38the relationship between a lot of moderate nationalists
1:22:38 > 1:22:41and the UK has been altered and that needs to be taken into account.
1:22:41 > 1:22:45Do you fear Brexit might change the result of a border poll?
1:22:45 > 1:22:47The law says the Secretary of State can only call it
1:22:47 > 1:22:50if she believes there is a likelihood that there'll be a
1:22:50 > 1:22:51change in the constitutional status -
1:22:51 > 1:22:53there is no evidence for that.
1:22:53 > 1:22:56I think if she called it, she would find herself in front of the court
1:22:56 > 1:22:57with a judicial review.
1:22:57 > 1:23:00What we really want to know is who will guarantee that
1:23:00 > 1:23:03nobody in Northern Ireland, no individual, no farmer,
1:23:03 > 1:23:05no voluntary or community sector group, no university
1:23:05 > 1:23:08is going to be worse off after we are out of Europe
1:23:08 > 1:23:09and we don't have the money.
1:23:09 > 1:23:11Thank you all very much indeed.
1:23:11 > 1:23:14One unfortunate outcome of Thursday's vote - a reported
1:23:14 > 1:23:17outbreak of racist intimidation across the UK.
1:23:17 > 1:23:21Families here too have spoken of unpleasant confrontations.
1:23:21 > 1:23:25Stephen Dempster met with one Polish family at worship in East Belfast,
1:23:25 > 1:23:27the only constituency in the city to vote Leave.
1:23:35 > 1:23:38Sunday morning, east Belfast -
1:23:38 > 1:23:43a protestant, unionist heartland,
1:23:43 > 1:23:46and members of the Polish community are gathered for a Catholic
1:23:46 > 1:23:50mass at St Anthony's church on the Woodstock Road.
1:23:55 > 1:23:56SPEAKS POLISH
1:23:59 > 1:24:04The decision to leave the EU is now testing this immigrant
1:24:04 > 1:24:08community's faith that it has a future in this part of the UK.
1:24:12 > 1:24:16I have a business in here the last four years and I don't think it
1:24:16 > 1:24:20will change much for the next couple of years,
1:24:20 > 1:24:24but I can't even imagine to pack myself and back to Poland.
1:24:24 > 1:24:28There's nothing in there for me. I left everything.
1:24:28 > 1:24:31Now I'm just thinking about this very quietly
1:24:31 > 1:24:33and I hope everything will be fine.
1:24:33 > 1:24:37I feel like Northern Ireland, Belfast, is my home.
1:24:38 > 1:24:42The Polish community is the largest group of foreign nationals here,
1:24:42 > 1:24:45believed to be well over 20,000 people.
1:24:53 > 1:24:56Daniel and Dorothy Konieczny have lived in Northern Ireland
1:24:56 > 1:24:59since 2004.
1:24:59 > 1:25:02The majority of their friends are Northern Irish.
1:25:02 > 1:25:06I like people from here, they are more friendly,
1:25:06 > 1:25:08I would say, they're more helpful.
1:25:08 > 1:25:11It doesn't matter if it's an old person or a young person.
1:25:11 > 1:25:15When I came here and I was walking through the streets,
1:25:15 > 1:25:18everyone was like, "All right, all right, mate?"
1:25:18 > 1:25:21Yes, people are very friendly here.
1:25:21 > 1:25:25Two best mans were local people in our wedding.
1:25:25 > 1:25:30The Father, the Son and Holy Spirit. Amen.
1:25:30 > 1:25:33They feel a genuine sense of commitment to Northern Ireland.
1:25:35 > 1:25:37There is a moment when you just realise,
1:25:37 > 1:25:42it's not any more home as Poland, it is home in Belfast.
1:25:42 > 1:25:45It's like that's the switch in your mind
1:25:45 > 1:25:48and then you know your home is here, basically, yes.
1:25:52 > 1:25:55Now that the UK is to quit the EU,
1:25:55 > 1:25:57they're uncertain what the future holds for them
1:25:57 > 1:26:01and their five-year-old daughter, Emily, who was born here.
1:26:02 > 1:26:07What happens to EU nationals has not yet been decided by government.
1:26:07 > 1:26:12I feel that we don't know what is our position now. We are confused.
1:26:12 > 1:26:14We don't know what actual rights we are going to have.
1:26:14 > 1:26:17We don't know what we can do.
1:26:17 > 1:26:20Immigration played a crucial role in the vote.
1:26:20 > 1:26:24Those who fear the impact of foreign nationals on public services
1:26:24 > 1:26:27and jobs welcomed the promise of border controls.
1:26:31 > 1:26:35Daniel moved here when a recruitment agency in Poland came
1:26:35 > 1:26:39looking for him because a factory in Lisburn needed workers.
1:26:41 > 1:26:44And now he and Dorothy run several businesses,
1:26:44 > 1:26:48contributing to the NI economy and employing 11 people.
1:26:49 > 1:26:53I don't feel comfortable when they say we are stealing their jobs
1:26:53 > 1:26:57because everyone has the same opportunity to go
1:26:57 > 1:26:59and find a job, to start working.
1:26:59 > 1:27:03I am cross with someone who would say, "Oh, you are Polish,
1:27:03 > 1:27:06"or you from there, and you are stealing our opportunity to work."
1:27:06 > 1:27:11I know not all the people is going to be looking this way.
1:27:11 > 1:27:15Most of the people they will treat us as usual.
1:27:15 > 1:27:21I felt unwelcome in 2004 because that was a big thing,
1:27:21 > 1:27:24throwing all that... A bit racist.
1:27:24 > 1:27:27There's more integration now than it was
1:27:27 > 1:27:31whenever we came here, basically, but raising the issue,
1:27:31 > 1:27:34saying, "Immigrants", and, "We don't need them",
1:27:34 > 1:27:37and all that stuff, it's quite challenging.
1:27:39 > 1:27:43Like everyone else, the Konieczny family now face an uncertain
1:27:43 > 1:27:47wait to see how the post-Brexit world takes shape.
1:27:48 > 1:27:51Let's see if we can sum it up with our next guests, Fintan O'Toole
1:27:51 > 1:27:54of the Irish Times and the commentator Alex Kane.
1:27:54 > 1:27:58Fintan O'Toole, you have said the Brexit vote put a bomb
1:27:58 > 1:27:59under the peace process.
1:27:59 > 1:28:02Was that something you write that in the heat of the moment?
1:28:02 > 1:28:04No, people argue about the language
1:28:04 > 1:28:08but this is the most scandalously reckless political movement
1:28:08 > 1:28:12that we have seen in our lifetimes in a democratic society.
1:28:13 > 1:28:17Anybody watching the debate, as it unfolded in the UK as a whole,
1:28:17 > 1:28:19would have been struck by the degree
1:28:19 > 1:28:21to which Northern Ireland didn't matter.
1:28:21 > 1:28:24There are four really serious things
1:28:24 > 1:28:26happening to Northern Ireland -
1:28:26 > 1:28:27one is that there is a hard border.
1:28:27 > 1:28:32This fantasy somehow that you can both have immigration control
1:28:32 > 1:28:36and an open border between the United Kingdom and the EU,
1:28:36 > 1:28:38it just doesn't stand up for a moment.
1:28:38 > 1:28:42The only chance that it is not going to happen is that the Leave
1:28:42 > 1:28:44campaigners were lying about that as much as they were
1:28:44 > 1:28:47lying about everything else, which is a possibility
1:28:47 > 1:28:49because this was one of the most mendacious campaigns
1:28:49 > 1:28:50we've ever seen.
1:28:50 > 1:28:54This was a core issue for them and the whole momentum in British
1:28:54 > 1:28:57politics is towards control of immigration.
1:28:57 > 1:29:00You cannot control immigration without a hard border.
1:29:00 > 1:29:04The second thing is that the UK breaking up,
1:29:04 > 1:29:06they didn't care about that.
1:29:06 > 1:29:10The third thing is that there is a rise of English nationalism
1:29:10 > 1:29:12which people are not paying attention to.
1:29:12 > 1:29:14This is English nationalism.
1:29:14 > 1:29:17Do you really think that the new ruling class in England,
1:29:17 > 1:29:19which is willing to get rid of Scotland,
1:29:19 > 1:29:23didn't care enough about Scotland to leave it go, is going
1:29:23 > 1:29:25to care enough about Northern Ireland to put all of this
1:29:25 > 1:29:30money that is being taken out from the EU back into Northern Ireland?
1:29:30 > 1:29:33They do not care and they made it very clear they don't care.
1:29:33 > 1:29:36The final point is that all of this is going to happen
1:29:36 > 1:29:37in an economic crisis.
1:29:37 > 1:29:42The economic cost of this, at the very least in the short-term,
1:29:42 > 1:29:43is pretty catastrophic.
1:29:43 > 1:29:46You agree it is a revolution,
1:29:46 > 1:29:49but a revolution of the patronised and ignored in your view?
1:29:49 > 1:29:54It is. I think there is a hard-core of English working class,
1:29:54 > 1:29:57particularly on the sink estates, who have believed in the past 30,
1:29:57 > 1:29:5940 years, that they have been ignored.
1:29:59 > 1:30:02They have no confidence in Labour or Conservative.
1:30:02 > 1:30:05They don't see either of those parties as representing them.
1:30:05 > 1:30:07I'm not even sure they see a party like Ukip or the
1:30:07 > 1:30:10English Defence League as representing them.
1:30:10 > 1:30:12They got it into their heads, and it came through Ukip,
1:30:12 > 1:30:15they got it into their heads they could hurt the establishment
1:30:15 > 1:30:17and they decided to do that.
1:30:17 > 1:30:20In terms of what Fintan was talking about,
1:30:20 > 1:30:22the only other referendum I remember in detail
1:30:22 > 1:30:24was the Good Friday Agreement.
1:30:24 > 1:30:27I remember on the day the count came in, May 1998,
1:30:27 > 1:30:30talking and interviewing leading figures from both the Yes and No
1:30:30 > 1:30:33campaigns, asking them what they thought Northern Ireland
1:30:33 > 1:30:35would look like in ten or 20 years' time.
1:30:35 > 1:30:37Looking back over those notes in the past couple of days,
1:30:37 > 1:30:40they were mostly wrong on every single issue.
1:30:40 > 1:30:42I just think, at this stage in Northern Ireland and
1:30:42 > 1:30:45everyone across the United Kingdom, were in the shock phase.
1:30:45 > 1:30:47No-one expected this result.
1:30:47 > 1:30:51Fintan is right, nobody had anything.
1:30:51 > 1:30:55He is completely right. It was lie upon lie from both sides.
1:30:55 > 1:30:57In the longer term , you have written that you don't believe
1:30:57 > 1:31:02Northern Ireland can be sustained in its current position outside the EU?
1:31:02 > 1:31:04I am not happy about that, I'm not advocating this,
1:31:04 > 1:31:08but I think if you look at it objectively, where are we heading?
1:31:08 > 1:31:11We're heading towards an English national state.
1:31:11 > 1:31:14The genie that's been let out of the bottle is English nationalism
1:31:14 > 1:31:16and it's proved to be a much more powerful force
1:31:16 > 1:31:17than anybody suspected.
1:31:17 > 1:31:22Its logic is the break-up of the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland
1:31:22 > 1:31:26as an appendage of an English national state,
1:31:26 > 1:31:29which is governed by English nationalism, is not interested
1:31:29 > 1:31:31in Northern Ireland, not interested in Scotland,
1:31:31 > 1:31:34not interested in the European Union is not sustainable.
1:31:34 > 1:31:38This is why the whole architecture of the peace process is
1:31:38 > 1:31:40really being very deeply undermined.
1:31:40 > 1:31:44We are going to have to think very carefully about what the future
1:31:44 > 1:31:46is and I don't think this is something we panic about, or it's
1:31:46 > 1:31:49an excuse for anybody to go back to any kind of violence, but we have to
1:31:49 > 1:31:52think about one of the relationships in this new world between
1:31:52 > 1:31:55Scotland, the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.
1:31:55 > 1:31:58It may well be that those entities have to start thinking about very
1:31:58 > 1:32:01close relationships within the European Union.
1:32:01 > 1:32:04That may be something that none of us ever thought about.
1:32:04 > 1:32:07The real problem here is, if you think about the Scottish
1:32:07 > 1:32:10referendum, the independence referendum, the SNP,
1:32:10 > 1:32:13whether you agree Scottish independence or not,
1:32:13 > 1:32:16they produced a 650-page document on what the future
1:32:16 > 1:32:17was as they proposed it.
1:32:18 > 1:32:22These people, this reckless ruling class, hasn't even got the
1:32:22 > 1:32:26back of a cigarette packet and they are creating anarchy.
1:32:26 > 1:32:29You can see at the moment that you have no effective government in
1:32:29 > 1:32:33England, no effective opposition and nobody knows where this will all go.
1:32:33 > 1:32:35I would predict that this is not over,
1:32:35 > 1:32:39that this question will be reopened, because it will have to be.
1:32:39 > 1:32:42Oddly enough, I am not that pessimistic.
1:32:42 > 1:32:45I think what will happen is I agree there is an English
1:32:45 > 1:32:47nationalism that has been awakened,
1:32:47 > 1:32:50but they are not going to be represented in the next Parliament.
1:32:50 > 1:32:53I think there will be an early election and I think it will be
1:32:53 > 1:32:57Conservatives and Labour. Very few Ukip will make the breakthrough.
1:32:57 > 1:33:00- It is not Ukip! It is the Tories, the government!- I don't think...
1:33:00 > 1:33:02What about Ireland, as it's been suggested,
1:33:02 > 1:33:04thinking about its position in the EU?
1:33:04 > 1:33:09Ireland will have to think, but one thing that is crucial in all of
1:33:09 > 1:33:12this, that triangle - London, Dublin, Belfast triangle - matters.
1:33:12 > 1:33:15I think Brussels will give them a fairly easy ride.
1:33:15 > 1:33:18Some people believe the peace process is in trouble.
1:33:18 > 1:33:21They will go out of their way... And going back to that 1998 point again,
1:33:21 > 1:33:24so many things I was told. You have been there.
1:33:24 > 1:33:26We're told it could never happen, would never happen,
1:33:26 > 1:33:30were not possible, miraculously to save something,
1:33:30 > 1:33:31they all become possible.
1:33:31 > 1:33:34Everyone is gloomy at the moment - I can understand that.
1:33:34 > 1:33:36- It is not as bad as it looks. - Gentleman, thank you both very much.
1:33:36 > 1:33:40One thing we can be sure of, there'll be lots more drama in the
1:33:40 > 1:33:41next days, weeks and years.
1:33:41 > 1:33:44From all on the Spotlight team, a very good night.