0:14:00 > 0:14:05No area in the United Kingdom will suffer more wanton destruction
0:14:05 > 0:14:07than Northern Ireland.
0:14:08 > 0:14:10I'm Jim Fitzpatrick.
0:14:11 > 0:14:14House prices will fall, food prices will rise,
0:14:14 > 0:14:15jobs will be lost.
0:14:15 > 0:14:19Economics and business was my bag at the BBC.
0:14:19 > 0:14:21The biggest domestic risk to financial stability.
0:14:21 > 0:14:24I also covered politics for years,
0:14:24 > 0:14:27but have never seen such predictions of doom.
0:14:27 > 0:14:28It could be catastrophic.
0:14:28 > 0:14:30Like many during the Brexit campaign,
0:14:30 > 0:14:34I was concerned about what would happen if we voted to leave the EU.
0:14:34 > 0:14:37Would there be border checkpoints?
0:14:37 > 0:14:40Having border controls and custom checks...
0:14:40 > 0:14:43Would there be less money and fewer jobs?
0:14:43 > 0:14:46Prices would go up, jobs would be lost,
0:14:46 > 0:14:48living standards would go down.
0:14:48 > 0:14:52I do not want to accelerate the break-up of the United Kingdom.
0:14:52 > 0:14:53The consequences would be negative.
0:14:53 > 0:14:57A supply and demand shock. Higher unemployment.
0:14:57 > 0:15:00A lengthy divorce with a very uncertain settlement at the end.
0:15:00 > 0:15:04- A pure dead weight loss. - I think it's a risk.
0:15:04 > 0:15:10The damage done to both economies, North and South, by Brexit.
0:15:16 > 0:15:18But the world hasn't ended.
0:15:20 > 0:15:23Life, like Brexit, is rarely that simple.
0:15:29 > 0:15:33I'm here in Carlingford Lough, looking for the border.
0:15:33 > 0:15:38This could soon be the frontier between a post-Brexit UK and the EU.
0:15:38 > 0:15:41I'm not sure if it's a hard or a soft border,
0:15:41 > 0:15:43but the water's fine.
0:15:43 > 0:15:46And three months on from that vote to leave the EU,
0:15:46 > 0:15:50on the surface, everything seems relatively calm.
0:15:50 > 0:15:52But who knows what lurks beneath?
0:16:04 > 0:16:07I couldn't see the border in Carlingford,
0:16:07 > 0:16:11because here, nearly a century since partition,
0:16:11 > 0:16:12it is still not agreed.
0:16:12 > 0:16:16It's a hint, perhaps, of how complex Brexit will be.
0:16:17 > 0:16:21You can't see Brexit, either, but it's real,
0:16:21 > 0:16:23and I want to find out how we will feel its impact.
0:16:23 > 0:16:27Will we notice a difference in the money in our pockets?
0:16:27 > 0:16:31Will immigration controls hurt or help our economy?
0:16:31 > 0:16:35Further along, I catch up with a businessman
0:16:35 > 0:16:37who appeared on Spotlight before the referendum.
0:16:37 > 0:16:41He was worried that losing his access to EU workers
0:16:41 > 0:16:44would end his fish business in nearby Kilkeel.
0:16:44 > 0:16:46If I didn't have them, I wouldn't be here,
0:16:46 > 0:16:48and that's just the plain way of it.
0:16:48 > 0:16:51We find it very hard to get local labour.
0:16:52 > 0:16:55I meet John Rooney on his new oyster farm.
0:16:55 > 0:16:58I mean, you say you can't hire locally. Is that true?
0:16:58 > 0:17:00Oh, that's true.
0:17:00 > 0:17:02It's the same in every factory
0:17:02 > 0:17:04in Northern Ireland.
0:17:05 > 0:17:08Surely it can't be that hard to find a couple of locals
0:17:08 > 0:17:11to do just two days' work.
0:17:11 > 0:17:14So I propose seeing if we can find someone local
0:17:14 > 0:17:17to take a role at his fish factory for a couple of days.
0:17:17 > 0:17:18If we were to test that out,
0:17:18 > 0:17:21see if we could find a local to work in your place,
0:17:21 > 0:17:22would you be up for that?
0:17:22 > 0:17:25Oh, I have no problem. We try and employ local people.
0:17:25 > 0:17:28They just don't apply for the jobs. It doesn't matter where they're at.
0:17:28 > 0:17:31- So, John, we'll have to try the oysters now that we're here.- Yeah.
0:17:31 > 0:17:33- Cheers, let's give it a go.- Right.
0:17:35 > 0:17:37Mm.
0:17:37 > 0:17:39That's fresh.
0:17:41 > 0:17:43Some of John Rooney's foreign workers
0:17:43 > 0:17:45have been with him for years.
0:17:48 > 0:17:51He wants to keep employing workers like Gergana Ivanova.
0:18:03 > 0:18:06Rooney Fish, like a lot of other employers in Northern Ireland,
0:18:06 > 0:18:08tell us that they rely on migrant labour
0:18:08 > 0:18:11because they find it so hard to recruit locally.
0:18:11 > 0:18:12We're going to see if we can help.
0:18:12 > 0:18:14We're going to put our guys on the case
0:18:14 > 0:18:16to speak to the Jobcentre,
0:18:16 > 0:18:19to go out into the street, to advertise on Facebook,
0:18:19 > 0:18:20and see if we can find someone
0:18:20 > 0:18:23to work for just two days in their factory.
0:18:29 > 0:18:32But what does Brexit mean now for you and me?
0:18:33 > 0:18:38Many predicted the cost of our weekly shop would go up.
0:18:38 > 0:18:39So, has it?
0:18:39 > 0:18:42We went to the very centre of Northern Ireland,
0:18:42 > 0:18:44Cookstown, in Mid-Ulster, to find out.
0:18:52 > 0:18:55Baker Tim Anderson runs a retail and wholesale business,
0:18:55 > 0:18:58with 30 staff, from his high street shop.
0:18:58 > 0:19:00What's changed for him?
0:19:01 > 0:19:03You know, I still feel everything's the same.
0:19:03 > 0:19:07Inflation's up a wee bit. Have you noticed an increase in price?
0:19:07 > 0:19:09No, not from wholesalers as yet.
0:19:09 > 0:19:12And you're not putting up the price of bread or buns just yet?
0:19:12 > 0:19:13No, not just yet.
0:19:13 > 0:19:16Butcher John Apperly employs 100 people
0:19:16 > 0:19:19between his factory and nine high street shops,
0:19:19 > 0:19:21including this one in Cookstown.
0:19:21 > 0:19:24I asked John if shoppers have been afraid to spend post-Brexit.
0:19:24 > 0:19:26Not in our business, anyway.
0:19:26 > 0:19:28People are still coming in, doing their weekly shop.
0:19:28 > 0:19:30Prices haven't gone up
0:19:30 > 0:19:33and footfall's still good, so all's good on our front.
0:19:33 > 0:19:37Would you have any concerns about what Brexit might mean?
0:19:37 > 0:19:38We remain positive.
0:19:38 > 0:19:40We still have our growth plans in place,
0:19:40 > 0:19:43so we've got harder things to overcome than Brexit.
0:19:43 > 0:19:46John Finch owns six convenience stores
0:19:46 > 0:19:49which also sell food produced at his factory.
0:19:49 > 0:19:51We would see ourselves in the front line.
0:19:51 > 0:19:56We get a lot of white van drivers, so if things are not working well,
0:19:56 > 0:19:59you see them regressing and the lunchbox coming back out again
0:19:59 > 0:20:00and whenever they are,
0:20:00 > 0:20:02they're in and they're happy enough to spend money,
0:20:02 > 0:20:05buy coffee and fast food.
0:20:05 > 0:20:07What about prices on the shelves here in your shop?
0:20:07 > 0:20:09Are they going up?
0:20:09 > 0:20:10Not at the minute.
0:20:10 > 0:20:13We haven't increased prices at all, and we have no requirement,
0:20:13 > 0:20:16it's not as if we're suffering any increase in price.
0:20:16 > 0:20:19That just hasn't happened. To date, anyway.
0:20:27 > 0:20:30The day after we filmed, the Office For National Statistics
0:20:30 > 0:20:32published its sale figures for July,
0:20:32 > 0:20:36which indicated shoppers were undeterred by Brexit.
0:20:39 > 0:20:42It's Angela McGowan's job to keep a close eye
0:20:42 > 0:20:44on how Northern Ireland's economy performs.
0:20:44 > 0:20:48Like most experts, she warned about the dangers of Brexit.
0:20:48 > 0:20:50She doesn't see any immediate hit for shoppers,
0:20:50 > 0:20:53but predicts inflation will rise.
0:20:54 > 0:20:57For example, if you're buying something in your supermarket now,
0:20:57 > 0:20:59the retail store probably bought that
0:20:59 > 0:21:00maybe two or three months ago.
0:21:00 > 0:21:03But as time goes on, they're going to notice when they import things
0:21:03 > 0:21:06that they're more expensive, because their pound is worth less.
0:21:06 > 0:21:08It's basic economics.
0:21:08 > 0:21:10So maybe people don't notice it in their basket of goods right now,
0:21:10 > 0:21:12but where people will have noticed it
0:21:12 > 0:21:14is if they took a foreign holiday this year.
0:21:14 > 0:21:16They notice that whenever they went on their holiday,
0:21:16 > 0:21:18everything was much more expensive.
0:21:18 > 0:21:20Your pound takes you less further abroad,
0:21:20 > 0:21:23so there will be an inflationary effect on those people already.
0:21:25 > 0:21:30Meanwhile, we have temporary jobs to fill at a Kilkeel fish factory,
0:21:30 > 0:21:33mostly staffed by foreign EU nationals.
0:21:33 > 0:21:37So, we're on the hunt for locals to see what they make of the work.
0:21:38 > 0:21:43We've no luck in Kilkeel, but after more than a month of searching,
0:21:43 > 0:21:46we finally find two candidates who are local,
0:21:46 > 0:21:48to Northern Ireland at least.
0:21:50 > 0:21:52It's just after 6.30 in the morning,
0:21:52 > 0:21:56and I'm waiting for our workers to show up.
0:21:56 > 0:21:5932-year-old Diarmuid, a video editor from Omagh,
0:21:59 > 0:22:01has been unemployed for 12 months.
0:22:01 > 0:22:03He arrives early.
0:22:03 > 0:22:06- You've been unemployed, working here and there.- Yeah.
0:22:06 > 0:22:08Why are you doing this?
0:22:08 > 0:22:11It's given me an opportunity to do something a little bit different.
0:22:11 > 0:22:14It's kind of difficult to actually jump straight back into work
0:22:14 > 0:22:16whenever you've been away for a long time,
0:22:16 > 0:22:19and whenever you have an option to go and do something a bit different,
0:22:19 > 0:22:21it gives you a new skill set, a new perspective.
0:22:21 > 0:22:23- Now, it's two days.- Mm-hm. - Are you going to hack it?
0:22:23 > 0:22:26Oh, yeah! Well, I'm pretty sure.
0:22:26 > 0:22:30Like, I mean, I don't mind it, so we'll see how it goes.
0:22:30 > 0:22:33Our second candidate is late.
0:22:33 > 0:22:35It's after seven, and the shift's begun.
0:22:35 > 0:22:37RINGING TONE
0:22:39 > 0:22:42'I'm ten seconds away. You'll see me here in two seconds.'
0:22:42 > 0:22:45Good stuff, Roy. You're on speakerphone. It's Jim here.
0:22:45 > 0:22:48- Look forward to seeing you very shortly.- 'Good man, Jim.'
0:22:48 > 0:22:49Cheers, then.
0:22:49 > 0:22:51Well, that's Roy. He's on his way.
0:22:52 > 0:22:55'20-year-old law student Roy, from Larne,
0:22:55 > 0:22:57'has ambitions to be a comedian.
0:22:57 > 0:23:01'Though arriving late is no joke for time-pressured employers.'
0:23:01 > 0:23:04We'll have to get you moving here, cos it's seven o'clock.
0:23:04 > 0:23:05- Let's get to work.- OK.
0:23:05 > 0:23:07All of my dad's side of the family
0:23:07 > 0:23:09have worked with fish for as long as I can remember.
0:23:09 > 0:23:10They were out in the boats.
0:23:10 > 0:23:12I'm not going to be out in the boats.
0:23:12 > 0:23:14I'm going to be doing the next best thing.
0:23:14 > 0:23:16On a stationary boat, maybe! Just to see if I can hack it.
0:23:16 > 0:23:19- I want to see if I can do it, and I think I can.- Just one thing.
0:23:19 > 0:23:21It's after seven o'clock. You were due to start at seven.
0:23:21 > 0:23:24These sort of places, they don't appreciate people being late.
0:23:24 > 0:23:26You know what else they say. Touts out.
0:23:26 > 0:23:28Induction begins in the boardroom...
0:23:28 > 0:23:31Everything is alive, so if you're handling
0:23:31 > 0:23:34at the back door, at intake, just be very careful,
0:23:34 > 0:23:36because you can get a wee nip.
0:23:36 > 0:23:39..before the necessary work clothes are donned.
0:23:39 > 0:23:43- We shall return to check on Roy and Diarmuid shortly.- Looking good.
0:23:43 > 0:23:47We've learned that prices on the high street haven't gone up.
0:23:47 > 0:23:51Meanwhile, for tourists coming here, they've gone down.
0:23:51 > 0:23:54Thanks to the fall in the pound, hoteliers in Northern Ireland
0:23:54 > 0:23:58are reporting their best summer in many years.
0:23:58 > 0:24:01The fact that, obviously, Northern Ireland, part of the UK.
0:24:01 > 0:24:04The currency in sterling, we've seen a devaluation in that currency.
0:24:04 > 0:24:08Is that driving any more of those tourists across the border?
0:24:08 > 0:24:13Yes, and early indications are quite strong.
0:24:13 > 0:24:17I think we can see it, you know, day by day in Belfast and around
0:24:17 > 0:24:20already in the car registrations on the roads.
0:24:22 > 0:24:26The majority of tourists arrive here from the Republic,
0:24:26 > 0:24:30so the Brexit benefit depends on the border remaining fluid.
0:24:31 > 0:24:34So, could Brexit mean boom time for tourism in Northern Ireland?
0:24:34 > 0:24:39If we don't see any hardening of the borders, yes, indeed,
0:24:39 > 0:24:42there could be an upside to Brexit for tourism.
0:24:47 > 0:24:51Leave voter Richard Irwin says Brexit has been good
0:24:51 > 0:24:54for his mattress cover and window blind business.
0:24:56 > 0:24:59And that could be good news for us all.
0:24:59 > 0:25:02Richard Irwin believes his sales are a good indicator
0:25:02 > 0:25:04of the likelihood of recession.
0:25:04 > 0:25:07He says people put off buying items like mattresses
0:25:07 > 0:25:10if they fear losing their jobs, but his sales are good.
0:25:12 > 0:25:16Typically, home furnishings will be one of the first sectors to suffer
0:25:16 > 0:25:18if there's a recession coming,
0:25:18 > 0:25:20because people will have to tighten their belts
0:25:20 > 0:25:23and they'll start with things that they can put off.
0:25:23 > 0:25:26So they're not going to put off their weekly grocery shop
0:25:26 > 0:25:27or filling their car,
0:25:27 > 0:25:31but if they have to put off buying a new set of curtains or a new bed,
0:25:31 > 0:25:35that's the first thing they'll do if there's uncertainty.
0:25:35 > 0:25:38And as things stand, we're seeing a little bit of that,
0:25:38 > 0:25:40but not a major dip.
0:25:40 > 0:25:42So, overall...
0:25:42 > 0:25:44What your order book is telling you
0:25:44 > 0:25:46is that the economy's ticking along well?
0:25:46 > 0:25:47Yeah, we're up year on year.
0:25:49 > 0:25:53Richard Irwin isn't the only one reporting good economic news.
0:25:53 > 0:25:56Just a couple of days after this interview,
0:25:56 > 0:25:58official figures confirmed
0:25:58 > 0:26:01that unemployment continued to fall in July.
0:26:02 > 0:26:04Once the UK leaves the EU...
0:26:04 > 0:26:08Farmers were given definite promises by the Leave campaign
0:26:08 > 0:26:11that their EU subsidies would be matched if we left Europe.
0:26:11 > 0:26:14And in August, the Chancellor announced
0:26:14 > 0:26:17that multibillion pound promise would be kept.
0:26:17 > 0:26:22What we're doing today is giving certainty about funding commitments.
0:26:22 > 0:26:25At least until 2020.
0:26:26 > 0:26:30During the referendum, some politicians, like Ian Paisley,
0:26:30 > 0:26:33even promised farmers would get bigger subsidies outside the EU.
0:26:33 > 0:26:37'You'll get more if you're a farmer if you're out of the EU
0:26:37 > 0:26:40'than you're currently getting in the EU.'
0:26:40 > 0:26:42Are you still as confident now
0:26:42 > 0:26:46that farmers will get more money post-Brexit than they did before?
0:26:46 > 0:26:48Well, I'm confident for a number of reasons.
0:26:48 > 0:26:51I've already met with the new English agricultural minister.
0:26:51 > 0:26:53First of all, the money is already there.
0:26:53 > 0:26:56And, secondly, there will be additional money.
0:26:56 > 0:26:57Last year,
0:26:57 > 0:27:00for some of those guys, their average income was 11,000,
0:27:00 > 0:27:02so it's not easy out there.
0:27:02 > 0:27:05Ulster Farmers Union president Barclay Bell
0:27:05 > 0:27:09is relieved his members' subsidies will continue for now,
0:27:09 > 0:27:11but has other, bigger, worries.
0:27:11 > 0:27:13EU membership protects farmers here
0:27:13 > 0:27:19by placing big charges, tariffs, on imports of food from outside the EU.
0:27:19 > 0:27:22Brexit could end that protection,
0:27:22 > 0:27:25and that would spell disaster for local farmers.
0:27:27 > 0:27:29Certainly if the tariffs disappeared,
0:27:29 > 0:27:33that is a risk that we could disappear
0:27:33 > 0:27:36with the threat of international imports.
0:27:36 > 0:27:40Farmers don't know what the new government policy will be.
0:27:40 > 0:27:42There's even a new department to deal with,
0:27:42 > 0:27:45called the Department for Exiting the EU.
0:27:46 > 0:27:48We have had some discussions
0:27:48 > 0:27:51with the Department for Exiting the EU.
0:27:51 > 0:27:56Certainly I think they are looking for ideas.
0:27:56 > 0:27:59They're wanting us to come up with ideas probably late September...
0:27:59 > 0:28:02They're wanting you to come up with the ideas?
0:28:02 > 0:28:05- They're wanting us to help with ideas.- Where are their ideas?
0:28:05 > 0:28:06This is what you have to question,
0:28:06 > 0:28:09you know, just where their ideas are.
0:28:09 > 0:28:13That is a bit alarming, that people who were so keen to leave
0:28:13 > 0:28:16actually haven't got a blueprint there.
0:28:16 > 0:28:20The Minister for Exiting the EU, David Davis,
0:28:20 > 0:28:22was at Stormont at the beginning of September.
0:28:22 > 0:28:25There was no sign of a Brexit blueprint,
0:28:25 > 0:28:29but there was instead a tough pledge on immigration.
0:28:30 > 0:28:34We have to, as a result of the biggest mandate
0:28:34 > 0:28:37in United Kingdom political history,
0:28:37 > 0:28:39we have to take control of our borders,
0:28:39 > 0:28:41we have to be able to control
0:28:41 > 0:28:44the number of people coming into the United Kingdom.
0:28:44 > 0:28:47But this new UK policy
0:28:47 > 0:28:51could be just the thing that Northern Ireland least needs.
0:28:51 > 0:28:53We have such a small population.
0:28:53 > 0:28:55Nowhere more than Northern Ireland
0:28:55 > 0:28:58needs to have access to an international labour market,
0:28:58 > 0:29:01and I think it would really damage our future economic growth
0:29:01 > 0:29:04if we don't really get this nailed on the head properly
0:29:04 > 0:29:06in terms of the negotiations.
0:29:06 > 0:29:11Back at the fish factory, staffed mostly by foreign EU nationals,
0:29:11 > 0:29:14our two locals are getting down to work.
0:29:14 > 0:29:17Will they keep up with their EU co-workers?
0:29:17 > 0:29:19What do they expect of the next two days?
0:29:19 > 0:29:22I'm hoping for a few surprises. I don't really know what to expect.
0:29:22 > 0:29:25I'm just going to take it all as it comes and hopefully enjoy it.
0:29:25 > 0:29:27Are you willing to do a bit more backbreaking work
0:29:27 > 0:29:29over the next day or so?
0:29:29 > 0:29:31Give me a job and I'll happily put myself to it.
0:29:31 > 0:29:32Although if I injure myself...
0:29:32 > 0:29:36That'll be an issue for the business to deal with, but not me.
0:29:36 > 0:29:40Boss Andrew Rooney, son of John, whom we met at the oyster farm,
0:29:40 > 0:29:45may need to rely more in the future on locals like Diarmuid and Roy.
0:29:45 > 0:29:46But they're in short supply,
0:29:46 > 0:29:50and he says Brexit is already causing recruitment problems.
0:29:50 > 0:29:55It's even hard now to get staff.
0:29:55 > 0:29:57- Even now? - Even now it's hard to get staff.
0:29:57 > 0:30:00- What, just since the vote?- Yeah. - Why's that?
0:30:00 > 0:30:05If we look at advertising for foreign workers,
0:30:05 > 0:30:08the key issue would be a fear factor.
0:30:08 > 0:30:11They don't know what's going to happen, so if they...
0:30:11 > 0:30:14sort of pack up everything there and come here,
0:30:14 > 0:30:16what's going to happen here?
0:30:16 > 0:30:18So it's actually left it very difficult now.
0:30:18 > 0:30:21So, are you telling me you find it difficult to hire locally
0:30:21 > 0:30:23and find it difficult to hire abroad at the moment?
0:30:23 > 0:30:25- Yeah.- Here and now?- Here and now.
0:30:25 > 0:30:29Diarmuid spends his first morning sorting prawns.
0:30:29 > 0:30:31He's finding it a bit of a struggle.
0:30:31 > 0:30:36So, you can go quicker, and you can use your two hands as well.
0:30:36 > 0:30:38It's just the fact there isn't that much space.
0:30:38 > 0:30:42So, you get quick with your eyes and then quick with your hands.
0:30:43 > 0:30:48Meanwhile, Roy is breezing through his work vacuum packing crab.
0:30:48 > 0:30:53Run your hand over it so the seal comes down on it, it sucks it.
0:30:53 > 0:30:56- What about that one? - That one's perfect. Yeah.
0:30:56 > 0:30:59Diarmuid voted to remain in the referendum.
0:30:59 > 0:31:00He's unemployed
0:31:00 > 0:31:04and has come off Jobseeker's Allowance to take this work.
0:31:04 > 0:31:09Employers will need many more locals like Diarmuid to do the same
0:31:09 > 0:31:12if Brexit halts the flow of EU workers.
0:31:12 > 0:31:14But Diarmuid doesn't believe his lack of work
0:31:14 > 0:31:16has anything to do with migrant workers.
0:31:16 > 0:31:17If I've not qualified for a job
0:31:17 > 0:31:19or I don't have the experience for the job,
0:31:19 > 0:31:22that makes sense when somebody else gets it over the top of me.
0:31:23 > 0:31:25Roy voted to leave,
0:31:25 > 0:31:28but he doesn't think that means sending migrants away.
0:31:29 > 0:31:33- I actually voted out.- Why?- One of the very few people my age to do so.
0:31:33 > 0:31:36Pretty much the ludicrous legislation,
0:31:36 > 0:31:38the lack of autonomy,
0:31:38 > 0:31:41and the quite frank undemocratic bureaucracy
0:31:41 > 0:31:43that goes on in Brussels.
0:31:44 > 0:31:46Was immigration an issue for you in this vote?
0:31:46 > 0:31:48To be quite frank, not really.
0:31:48 > 0:31:50I think whenever there's people coming here to work,
0:31:50 > 0:31:51I think that's superb.
0:31:51 > 0:31:54I think there's people come over from all parts of Europe to work,
0:31:54 > 0:31:57I think that's absolutely fantastic.
0:31:57 > 0:32:00Whether we need heavier vetting of people coming through,
0:32:00 > 0:32:04like the likes of Australia and America do, possibly.
0:32:05 > 0:32:07Just four days after this filming,
0:32:07 > 0:32:11the Prime Minister rolled out an Australian points system.
0:32:11 > 0:32:14The fate of EU workers, though, remains unclear.
0:32:16 > 0:32:21One big fear associated with Brexit has been the loss of EU funding.
0:32:21 > 0:32:24The government has given some guarantees,
0:32:24 > 0:32:27but in Northern Ireland, that may not go far enough.
0:32:27 > 0:32:29According to Stormont's finance minister,
0:32:29 > 0:32:33we could still be short many millions.
0:32:33 > 0:32:35My concern is that there's a question mark
0:32:35 > 0:32:37over half of the £500 million
0:32:37 > 0:32:39which we are due to get from Europe.
0:32:39 > 0:32:42It will be a real body blow to the economy,
0:32:42 > 0:32:45and that's why I've made it my number one priority
0:32:45 > 0:32:47to fight for this 500 million
0:32:47 > 0:32:51and make sure we don't lose one single cent or one single penny.
0:32:52 > 0:32:56And that EU money turns up in surprising places.
0:33:02 > 0:33:04Like this Republican ex-prisoners group
0:33:04 > 0:33:06which relies on EU funding.
0:33:10 > 0:33:13This Museum of Orange Heritage
0:33:13 > 0:33:15was built with millions in EU funding.
0:33:19 > 0:33:21And public transport has benefited, too.
0:33:29 > 0:33:31Like it or loathe it, the extension at the Waterfront
0:33:31 > 0:33:33is the centrepiece of a new strategy
0:33:33 > 0:33:35to bring big international conferences
0:33:35 > 0:33:37and their high-spending delegates to the town.
0:33:37 > 0:33:39Europe picked up half the tab.
0:33:41 > 0:33:43£13.4 million.
0:33:49 > 0:33:53The regeneration of this city began with the river.
0:33:53 > 0:33:55Do you remember what it was like before any of this was built?
0:33:55 > 0:33:57Cheers, Simon.
0:34:02 > 0:34:06The Lagan wasn't the most pleasant of rivers, especially at low tide,
0:34:06 > 0:34:09when the exposed mudbanks gave off their particular aroma.
0:34:21 > 0:34:24So they built this, the Lagan Weir.
0:34:24 > 0:34:27It keeps the level up and the smell down.
0:34:27 > 0:34:29And the EU money helped it happen.
0:34:33 > 0:34:37Titanic Belfast is a symbol of our tourism revival.
0:34:37 > 0:34:40The EU has delivered millions for local tourism
0:34:40 > 0:34:43to spend on marketing and big events.
0:34:43 > 0:34:46And next door is home to Game Of Thrones,
0:34:46 > 0:34:50the biggest TV series in the world, here at Titanic Studios.
0:34:50 > 0:34:53And once again, EU funding plays its part
0:34:53 > 0:34:55by channelling millions into the industry body
0:34:55 > 0:34:57Northern Ireland Screen.
0:34:58 > 0:35:03Many argue that it was not EU money that funded these projects,
0:35:03 > 0:35:06but instead our own money recycled back to us.
0:35:07 > 0:35:09People miss the point. They call it EU money.
0:35:09 > 0:35:12It is UK money
0:35:12 > 0:35:15that we end up having to spend the way Europe tells us.
0:35:15 > 0:35:18You know what leaving will allow us to do with that money?
0:35:18 > 0:35:20It will allow the Northern Ireland Assembly
0:35:20 > 0:35:23to assume greater powers and greater responsibilities
0:35:23 > 0:35:25on how allocations to Northern Ireland are actually spent.
0:35:29 > 0:35:32But there's a problem, and it has nothing to do with funding,
0:35:32 > 0:35:35which suggests we could be sailing into choppy waters.
0:35:37 > 0:35:40Many TV and film projects are made here
0:35:40 > 0:35:42because it means they're made in the EU
0:35:42 > 0:35:45and therefore benefit from EU quotas,
0:35:45 > 0:35:50which ensure the majority of content on TV in Europe is made in Europe.
0:35:50 > 0:35:53A UK out of Europe may not qualify.
0:35:53 > 0:35:55That's bad news for local productions
0:35:55 > 0:35:58like children's hit Lily's Driftwood Bay.
0:35:59 > 0:36:01Somebody stop this thing!
0:36:01 > 0:36:04- Use the anchor, Bull.- Oh!
0:36:05 > 0:36:09Losing those widely hated EU regulations could have a downside.
0:36:12 > 0:36:14I'm meeting Professor Richard Kennedy.
0:36:14 > 0:36:17He's an oncologist at the Cancer Centre in Belfast
0:36:17 > 0:36:20and leading cancer researcher at Queen's University.
0:36:20 > 0:36:23Thanks to people like him and their work,
0:36:23 > 0:36:27Belfast is now globally respected as a centre for cancer research.
0:36:27 > 0:36:30He fears that is now under threat.
0:36:31 > 0:36:33Northern Ireland's had a leadership role
0:36:33 > 0:36:35in a number of programmes, including clinical trials,
0:36:35 > 0:36:38and also research consortiums throughout Europe.
0:36:38 > 0:36:39I think after Brexit,
0:36:39 > 0:36:42there's a danger that we become disengaged from those groups,
0:36:42 > 0:36:44we become insular, inward-looking in our research.
0:36:44 > 0:36:47In Northern Ireland, I think we're particularly vulnerable
0:36:47 > 0:36:49because we're a small area and we benefit very much
0:36:49 > 0:36:51from collaboration elsewhere within Europe.
0:36:51 > 0:36:56And if we weren't part of that after Brexit,
0:36:56 > 0:36:59what would it mean for clinical trials here in Northern Ireland?
0:36:59 > 0:37:01There's a danger that the kind of research
0:37:01 > 0:37:03or the data we generate in our studies
0:37:03 > 0:37:05may not be recognised by the other states within the EU.
0:37:05 > 0:37:08So if I was a drugs company where would I do my clinical trials?
0:37:08 > 0:37:11I can see how, potentially, we could create disincentives
0:37:11 > 0:37:12to do studies within the UK.
0:37:12 > 0:37:14In other words, they'd just do them somewhere else...
0:37:14 > 0:37:16Because it's easier, yeah.
0:37:18 > 0:37:20Wrightbus was, for many,
0:37:20 > 0:37:23the corporate face of Brexit in Northern Ireland.
0:37:23 > 0:37:25It builds London buses,
0:37:25 > 0:37:29and company founder William Wright was also a vocal Leave supporter.
0:37:31 > 0:37:33However, even the "Boris Bus"
0:37:33 > 0:37:36must still be built to European regulations.
0:37:36 > 0:37:38So you either build a bus
0:37:38 > 0:37:42to a European standard or you build it to an American standard,
0:37:42 > 0:37:45and we obviously, in the future, have to be able to do both.
0:37:45 > 0:37:46So from that point of view,
0:37:46 > 0:37:49we're still bound by EU regulations, in or out.
0:37:51 > 0:37:54Even at Wrightbus, scratch the surface
0:37:54 > 0:37:57and the complexities of Brexit are revealed.
0:37:57 > 0:38:00The company builds buses for Dublin as well as London.
0:38:00 > 0:38:03It has received millions in European funding,
0:38:03 > 0:38:06and its chief executive, unlike its founder,
0:38:06 > 0:38:09wanted to stay in the EU.
0:38:09 > 0:38:11I was in favour of remaining,
0:38:11 > 0:38:13but I wasn't 100% in favour of remaining.
0:38:14 > 0:38:17- William Wright is a big personality. - He is.
0:38:17 > 0:38:19So how did the two of you handle this dispute
0:38:19 > 0:38:22over your Remain and he was Leave?
0:38:22 > 0:38:27We were never in dispute. It was all very jovial, and it still is.
0:38:27 > 0:38:29But with key customers in Europe,
0:38:29 > 0:38:32could the Brexit vote damage Wrightbus?
0:38:32 > 0:38:35Is it going to change things for some of your customers?
0:38:35 > 0:38:37I mean, we're walking past a Dublin bus here.
0:38:37 > 0:38:38Is there a sense of hurt?
0:38:38 > 0:38:42There's been some raised eyebrows. There was a curiosity.
0:38:42 > 0:38:44Just that kind of academic interest, really.
0:38:47 > 0:38:51Day two at the fish factory for our local volunteers.
0:38:51 > 0:38:54Are they the kind of workers that businesses could rely on
0:38:54 > 0:38:57if Brexit makes it difficult to hire from the EU?
0:38:59 > 0:39:00Diarmuid is hard at it.
0:39:00 > 0:39:02But there's no sign of Roy.
0:39:04 > 0:39:05He arrives late.
0:39:05 > 0:39:08Off-camera, the boss asks him to leave.
0:39:08 > 0:39:12Roy's not pleased, as his working day stops before it begins.
0:39:14 > 0:39:17I catch up with him that lunchtime at a nearby hotel.
0:39:21 > 0:39:23I could have been down there for any time.
0:39:23 > 0:39:26I was ready to rock at any time. They said, "Be here at eight."
0:39:26 > 0:39:28I thought, "I'll get there as close to eight as possible,"
0:39:28 > 0:39:31and I was, again, to be precise, two minutes late.
0:39:32 > 0:39:36Do you get what it's like for employers such as Rooney Fish...?
0:39:36 > 0:39:39They obviously expect, you know, things to run exactly as they plan.
0:39:39 > 0:39:41I can understand that, yes,
0:39:41 > 0:39:44but with regards to the two minutes that I missed this morning,
0:39:44 > 0:39:47I would have been more than happy to make that up.
0:39:47 > 0:39:50He said it was two minutes, but that was two minutes at the gate.
0:39:50 > 0:39:53Then he had to go inside, he had to get changed,
0:39:53 > 0:39:56he had to leave his lunch in the canteen
0:39:56 > 0:39:59and he had to go downstairs, had to clock in,
0:39:59 > 0:40:01which would have been ten minutes late.
0:40:01 > 0:40:05And the machine was stopped in the meantime, waiting on him to come.
0:40:05 > 0:40:08It costs money for a whole factory then to do that.
0:40:10 > 0:40:12Meanwhile, Diarmuid,
0:40:12 > 0:40:14who got told off on his first day for being too slow,
0:40:14 > 0:40:16has picked up the pace.
0:40:20 > 0:40:21I've been enjoying it.
0:40:21 > 0:40:24I've got properly into the swing of doing the job.
0:40:24 > 0:40:25I've been doing a decent enough day.
0:40:25 > 0:40:27Somebody said to me to slow down at one point.
0:40:27 > 0:40:29I've been enjoying it, I've been working hard.
0:40:29 > 0:40:32- I saw a bit of sweat there. - That's real working labour.
0:40:32 > 0:40:34That's actually the reason why I'm sweating.
0:40:34 > 0:40:37It had to come from lifting and laying and doing proper work.
0:40:41 > 0:40:45Of course, we don't yet know what Brexit really means.
0:40:45 > 0:40:48But if it does mean tighter controls on migrants,
0:40:48 > 0:40:50as the government now says,
0:40:50 > 0:40:52does that mean more jobs for locals like Diarmuid
0:40:52 > 0:40:55and a Brexit boost for the economy?
0:40:55 > 0:41:01Or if a shortage of workers forces companies to move, or close,
0:41:01 > 0:41:06does Brexit actually mean fewer jobs and less money for us all?
0:41:09 > 0:41:12We have to keep our factory going,
0:41:12 > 0:41:15and it just happened to be to keep the factory going,
0:41:15 > 0:41:20it was foreign nationals that were employed.
0:41:20 > 0:41:22If that stopped in the morning,
0:41:22 > 0:41:25I don't know where I'm going to replace 60 people.
0:41:27 > 0:41:31Brexit raises a lot of complex issues for Northern Ireland
0:41:31 > 0:41:32in particular.
0:41:32 > 0:41:38But, surprisingly, the one common thread of concern I've discovered,
0:41:38 > 0:41:40among the people I've met, even those who voted Leave,
0:41:40 > 0:41:44is the potential impact on foreign workers and the local economy.
0:41:46 > 0:41:49The freedom of movement of people has been one of the better things
0:41:49 > 0:41:52that's come out of the project of the EU.
0:41:52 > 0:41:55We do depend on the migrant people, you know.
0:41:55 > 0:41:56They are terrific workers.
0:41:56 > 0:41:59They are a fantastic part of our workforce.
0:41:59 > 0:42:03They are contributing to society as much as you and I are.
0:42:03 > 0:42:05So what does Rooney Fish do
0:42:05 > 0:42:08if the shutters are pulled down on recruitment in Europe?
0:42:08 > 0:42:10Truthfully, standing here now, I don't know.
0:42:12 > 0:42:13I don't know.
0:42:13 > 0:42:17And that is the only answer, like, you know.
0:42:17 > 0:42:19I don't know.