1:44:23 > 1:44:25TICKING
1:44:31 > 1:44:34The clock is ticking towards polling day.
1:44:35 > 1:44:40I propose to set an election date of Thursday 2nd of March.
1:44:42 > 1:44:46In the world of politics, it's game on.
1:44:46 > 1:44:47INDISTINCT
1:44:52 > 1:44:55You have to ask Enda about the battle bus.
1:44:58 > 1:45:01Battle lines are being drawn after the collapse of Stormont...
1:45:03 > 1:45:06..but will the new Assembly work any better than the old?
1:45:08 > 1:45:13Tonight, in the second of two special programmes on power sharing,
1:45:13 > 1:45:16we review what really may have caused the collapse
1:45:16 > 1:45:18of the Executive last month.
1:45:18 > 1:45:21Can power sharing work better?
1:45:21 > 1:45:24Can it even be put back together after the election?
1:45:27 > 1:45:30This partnership was the future once.
1:45:32 > 1:45:35Last May, Arlene Foster and Martin McGuinness,
1:45:35 > 1:45:38as First and Deputy First Ministers,
1:45:38 > 1:45:41reaffirmed their commitment to power sharing.
1:45:41 > 1:45:45But seven months later, the fresh start went up in smoke.
1:45:48 > 1:45:51Sinn Fein pulled the plug on power sharing by not re-nominating
1:45:51 > 1:45:54for the position of Deputy First Minister
1:45:54 > 1:45:57following Martin McGuinness's shock resignation.
1:45:58 > 1:46:02He listed the Renewable Heat Incentive - RHI - scandal,
1:46:02 > 1:46:05among others, as the reason for his resignation.
1:46:07 > 1:46:11I think anybody that knows the history of our relationship
1:46:11 > 1:46:16with the DUP, particularly over the course of recent years
1:46:16 > 1:46:20and the different issues that have really raised
1:46:20 > 1:46:24all sorts of question marks about the DUP's behaviour.
1:46:24 > 1:46:29Things like Red Sky, Frank Cushnahan and Nama,
1:46:29 > 1:46:34the Liofa decision, a despicable decision, the RHI -
1:46:34 > 1:46:37all of these things are hugely concerning
1:46:37 > 1:46:39for us in Sinn Fein.
1:46:39 > 1:46:42Arlene Foster immediately took to social media to respond.
1:46:45 > 1:46:48At a time when we are dealing with Brexit,
1:46:48 > 1:46:51needing to create more jobs and investing in our health
1:46:51 > 1:46:55and education system, Northern Ireland needs stability,
1:46:55 > 1:46:59but because of Sinn Fein's selfish actions, we now have instability.
1:47:00 > 1:47:04Martin McGuinness, in leaving the Assembly chamber for the last time,
1:47:04 > 1:47:07marked the end of a decade of power sharing
1:47:07 > 1:47:09between the DUP and Sinn Fein.
1:47:17 > 1:47:21But how did it come to this? What's really going on and
1:47:21 > 1:47:24what other factors may have led to the fracturing of relationships
1:47:24 > 1:47:28at the heart of the power-sharing executive?
1:47:30 > 1:47:34For the DUP, it had all been going so well.
1:47:34 > 1:47:38The leader of the Democratic Unionist Party,
1:47:38 > 1:47:41the First Lady of Northern Ireland,
1:47:41 > 1:47:43the First Minister of Northern Ireland,
1:47:43 > 1:47:48the Right Honourable Arlene Foster, MLA.
1:47:48 > 1:47:51CHEERING
1:47:51 > 1:47:54In her Party Conference speech last October,
1:47:54 > 1:47:58Arlene Foster may have been prematurely triumphant.
1:47:58 > 1:48:00Just 12 months ago,
1:48:00 > 1:48:04Northern Ireland was a byword for political crisis and instability.
1:48:04 > 1:48:09Devolution was in crisis. Stormont was teetering on the brink.
1:48:09 > 1:48:13Our rivals were cocky about their election chances,
1:48:13 > 1:48:16already measuring up their curtains for their new offices.
1:48:16 > 1:48:18LAUGHTER
1:48:18 > 1:48:22And the pundits were yet again predicting the demise of the DUP.
1:48:25 > 1:48:29Jon Tonge is Professor of Politics at the University of Liverpool
1:48:29 > 1:48:31and co-author of a book on the DUP.
1:48:34 > 1:48:38My thoughts at the DUP conference were Arlene Foster, First Minister
1:48:38 > 1:48:43until 2021 and beyond, and full steam ahead for the DUP.
1:48:43 > 1:48:47I thought the DUP would be governing Northern Ireland...
1:48:47 > 1:48:49essentially in perpetuity,
1:48:49 > 1:48:51albeit in partnership with Sinn Fein.
1:48:51 > 1:48:56I think what the DUP forgot was that the whole of
1:48:56 > 1:48:58the Good Friday Agreement is built upon a partnership.
1:48:58 > 1:49:01It only takes one partner to walk away,
1:49:01 > 1:49:03and the whole edifice collapses.
1:49:03 > 1:49:06But the responsibilities we do have, in terms of education...
1:49:06 > 1:49:10Daithi McKay resigned as a Sinn Fein MLA last year,
1:49:10 > 1:49:14after the party suspended him over claims he'd coached a blogger
1:49:14 > 1:49:17to give evidence to a Stormont inquiry.
1:49:17 > 1:49:21He worked alongside Arlene Foster in the Assembly.
1:49:21 > 1:49:24There was a hope, I think, that
1:49:24 > 1:49:26she would be more modern,
1:49:26 > 1:49:28that she was relatively younger
1:49:28 > 1:49:32and that she would be business-like in how she dealt with things.
1:49:34 > 1:49:35# Arlene is our leader
1:49:35 > 1:49:37# We shall not be moved... #
1:49:37 > 1:49:42Arlene Foster is no moderate. She is a tough, tough unionist.
1:49:42 > 1:49:46She had led the party to a 38-seat win at the May elections last year,
1:49:46 > 1:49:49a resounding victory for the new leader.
1:49:49 > 1:49:50CHEERING
1:49:50 > 1:49:52- Hip! Hip! - CROWD:- Hooray!
1:49:54 > 1:49:56I think the DUP, to some extent,
1:49:56 > 1:50:00in their celebrations of the May 2016 result, probably took
1:50:00 > 1:50:03their eye off the ball somewhat and didn't see the danger signs.
1:50:03 > 1:50:05I think the DUP miscalculated.
1:50:05 > 1:50:08I don't think for one moment they really thought that Sinn Fein
1:50:08 > 1:50:11would collapse the Executive.
1:50:12 > 1:50:17Just ten weeks after a triumphant DUP Party Conference, Arlene Foster
1:50:17 > 1:50:20found herself out of a job as First Minister.
1:50:21 > 1:50:24Arlene Foster is damaged goods by virtue of the fact that she's
1:50:24 > 1:50:27effectively been sacked by Martin McGuinness's resignation.
1:50:27 > 1:50:30So that's simply a statement of fact - she is damaged.
1:50:30 > 1:50:32The question for Arlene Foster is,
1:50:32 > 1:50:35can she ever resume as First Minister?
1:50:35 > 1:50:39The "cash for ash" controversy sparked discontent in
1:50:39 > 1:50:42the relationship between the DUP and Sinn Fein.
1:50:44 > 1:50:47But the decision by a DUP minister to withdraw,
1:50:47 > 1:50:49just before Christmas,
1:50:49 > 1:50:53£50,000 in funding for an Irish language scheme
1:50:53 > 1:50:55was akin to pouring petrol on the fire.
1:50:57 > 1:50:59In his two-page resignation letter,
1:50:59 > 1:51:04Martin McGuinness listed a catalogue of his party's grievances.
1:51:04 > 1:51:07But some believe Sinn Fein pulled the house down
1:51:07 > 1:51:09to forward their own agenda.
1:51:10 > 1:51:12Sinn Fein were losing votes.
1:51:12 > 1:51:16That's why they decided that they wanted to re-engage
1:51:16 > 1:51:20with their base in this way that they've done.
1:51:20 > 1:51:24In the last election, they took a very significant drop,
1:51:24 > 1:51:26and that's why Sinn Fein has done what it's done.
1:51:26 > 1:51:29That's the real reason, underlying it.
1:51:29 > 1:51:34The scandal over that heating scheme is the pretext,
1:51:34 > 1:51:36but the real reason is their loss of support.
1:51:36 > 1:51:38There is no political institution in the world
1:51:38 > 1:51:41would have survived the alleged corruption
1:51:41 > 1:51:43we have witnessed and been witness to
1:51:43 > 1:51:45over these number of months.
1:51:45 > 1:51:49It's not about an attempt to increase our mandate.
1:51:49 > 1:51:51This is about defending the principles of
1:51:51 > 1:51:54the Good Friday Agreement, defending the Good Friday Agreement
1:51:54 > 1:51:57and defending the integrity of government.
1:51:57 > 1:51:59Despite John O'Dowd's assertions,
1:51:59 > 1:52:02some believe that the collapse of power sharing
1:52:02 > 1:52:04really is all about Sinn Fein.
1:52:05 > 1:52:06It was Sinn Fein that became
1:52:06 > 1:52:09increasingly unhappy with the arrangement,
1:52:09 > 1:52:12because the DUP, they felt that they were in the ascendency.
1:52:12 > 1:52:17Sinn Fein felt that they were simply having to go with the DUP agenda.
1:52:17 > 1:52:19As a former Sinn Fein insider,
1:52:19 > 1:52:23Daithi McKay has an insight into the party's election strategy.
1:52:23 > 1:52:26I do think that Sinn Fein now find themselves in a position
1:52:26 > 1:52:29where they have a political opportunity,
1:52:29 > 1:52:31and that they can help to mobilise
1:52:31 > 1:52:34a dormant republican, nationalist vote,
1:52:34 > 1:52:36that certainly exists out there.
1:52:36 > 1:52:39In politics, there's always a game within a game.
1:52:39 > 1:52:42What do you think your former party's strategy is?
1:52:43 > 1:52:48Its strategy is to go back into the Executive with a stronger position.
1:52:48 > 1:52:50So Sinn Fein shouldn't be rushing in
1:52:50 > 1:52:53to restore the Executive and the Assembly again
1:52:53 > 1:52:57until they make some significant gain.
1:52:57 > 1:53:01Sinn Fein's election message has been consistent.
1:53:01 > 1:53:03There will be no return to the status quo.
1:53:03 > 1:53:04..back to the status quo...
1:53:04 > 1:53:05There will be no return to the status quo.
1:53:05 > 1:53:08- There will be no return...- There will be no return to the status quo.
1:53:08 > 1:53:09..to the status quo.
1:53:11 > 1:53:14It means, for Sinn Fein, that they're not going to go back
1:53:14 > 1:53:18into government as secondary to the DUP, in their view.
1:53:18 > 1:53:22So it means change, probably on an Irish language act.
1:53:22 > 1:53:26It means change on such things as a same-sex marriage,
1:53:26 > 1:53:29and it means a greater equality, a co-badging, in many ways,
1:53:29 > 1:53:32of First and Deputy First Minister.
1:53:32 > 1:53:35If Sinn Fein don't get those, then, for Sinn Fein,
1:53:35 > 1:53:37whilst they wouldn't welcome British direct rule,
1:53:37 > 1:53:40for obvious reasons, they may feel they have less to lose than
1:53:40 > 1:53:45the DUP, at least for a limited period of British direct rule.
1:53:45 > 1:53:47That, of course, may seem very ironic
1:53:47 > 1:53:51for an Irish republican party, but that's the current situation.
1:53:51 > 1:53:54Are republicans restless for change?
1:53:54 > 1:53:55On the last day of the Assembly,
1:53:55 > 1:53:59People Before Profit's Eamonn McCann told us they are.
1:54:01 > 1:54:03The structures up here in Stormont
1:54:03 > 1:54:06were sold to rank and file republicans
1:54:06 > 1:54:09as an alternative path to a united Ireland.
1:54:09 > 1:54:12Abandon armed struggle, because we have discovered
1:54:12 > 1:54:14a different project which will carry you forward.
1:54:14 > 1:54:17That was accepted by the great bulk, sort of,
1:54:17 > 1:54:20of members of Sinn Fein and the Provisional IRA.
1:54:20 > 1:54:23So the reason why Sinn Fein stayed for so long,
1:54:23 > 1:54:25to the frustration of many in the rank and file,
1:54:25 > 1:54:26to anger of the rank and file,
1:54:26 > 1:54:30is that, having dropped the traditional republican idea
1:54:30 > 1:54:34of armed struggle until there's a united Ireland,
1:54:34 > 1:54:37their alternative having now collapsed,
1:54:37 > 1:54:38what's their next trick?
1:54:38 > 1:54:40What's Sinn Fein's next trick?
1:54:40 > 1:54:43I think it would be foolish for republicans
1:54:43 > 1:54:47to rush back into the Assembly, and the Executive.
1:54:47 > 1:54:52I think that republicans continually need to review
1:54:52 > 1:54:56whether their strategy is going to deliver on their ultimate objective,
1:54:56 > 1:54:58which is a united Ireland.
1:55:05 > 1:55:10The question now is has society moved on?
1:55:10 > 1:55:13We're just going to jog down to the bottom of the field, right?
1:55:13 > 1:55:16Then we're going to come up, right up to the top of the field.
1:55:16 > 1:55:19In Keady, the Armagh junior camogie team
1:55:19 > 1:55:22is training ahead of a busy competitive season.
1:55:24 > 1:55:26We're trying to get up and down the field.
1:55:26 > 1:55:28We're trying to get ourselves warmed up.
1:55:28 > 1:55:31Many here travel to and from their jobs in Belfast
1:55:31 > 1:55:34for their twice-weekly training sessions.
1:55:36 > 1:55:39I think this generation of girls we see out here this evening
1:55:39 > 1:55:42have been completely shielded from, you know,
1:55:42 > 1:55:45maybe our generation when we were playing sport.
1:55:45 > 1:55:49It's absolutely brilliant that they don't have, you know,
1:55:49 > 1:55:52that additional worry or fear.
1:55:52 > 1:55:56Absolutely, it's clearly onwards and upwards.
1:55:56 > 1:56:00We'd like to think that we wouldn't go back to the dark days.
1:56:00 > 1:56:02Grainne Kelly is the team's joint captain.
1:56:04 > 1:56:07Do you have a personal view on the situation at Stormont
1:56:07 > 1:56:08and on power sharing?
1:56:08 > 1:56:10It's a bit rubbish.
1:56:10 > 1:56:12The Good Friday Agreement was that long ago now
1:56:12 > 1:56:15that things should really be running quite smoothly.
1:56:15 > 1:56:17It's nice to think that we don't have to worry about,
1:56:17 > 1:56:20you know, who follows what political party,
1:56:20 > 1:56:22and it doesn't matter where you are from,
1:56:22 > 1:56:26and it would be sad to think that we would go back to that.
1:56:26 > 1:56:30Do you and your peers aspire to live in a united Ireland
1:56:30 > 1:56:35or are you happy to live in a Northern Ireland at peace?
1:56:35 > 1:56:38I would be happy to live in Northern Ireland at peace
1:56:38 > 1:56:42as opposed to maybe live in a united Ireland
1:56:42 > 1:56:43that's going to cause more uproar
1:56:43 > 1:56:46and is going to cause more fighting and things to reoccur.
1:56:54 > 1:56:57Whatever has happened to attitudes here
1:56:57 > 1:57:00in the 19 years since the Good Friday Agreement,
1:57:00 > 1:57:02the world has moved on.
1:57:02 > 1:57:04In the last ten months alone,
1:57:04 > 1:57:07there have been significant geopolitical shifts
1:57:07 > 1:57:09on both sides of the Atlantic.
1:57:11 > 1:57:13Congratulations, Mr President.
1:57:15 > 1:57:19The British people have spoken, and the answer is we're out.
1:57:21 > 1:57:23Britain is distracted by Brexit,
1:57:23 > 1:57:26the Republic by its own political crisis,
1:57:26 > 1:57:29and the US by its new President.
1:57:29 > 1:57:32The latest Stormont crisis shows no sign of triggering
1:57:32 > 1:57:36major diplomatic efforts to get power sharing back on track.
1:57:39 > 1:57:41And some believe that Brexit has made
1:57:41 > 1:57:45a very significant contribution to the fracturing of power sharing.
1:57:47 > 1:57:52Brexit has been a really, really big fault line
1:57:52 > 1:57:54in this whole recent scene.
1:57:54 > 1:57:57For nationalists and republicans,
1:57:57 > 1:58:01the possible resurrection of the border is getting in the way
1:58:01 > 1:58:04of why they signed up to the Good Friday Agreement,
1:58:04 > 1:58:07which is they could retain their legitimate...
1:58:07 > 1:58:11They may disagree or agree, but it's a legitimate political objective,
1:58:11 > 1:58:14provided it's by the vote and not by the bomb
1:58:14 > 1:58:17to achieve a united Ireland.
1:58:17 > 1:58:20Unionists will fight it all the way,
1:58:20 > 1:58:22that's a legitimate political objective for them.
1:58:22 > 1:58:25I think that's destabilised the situation,
1:58:25 > 1:58:28and in turn made unionists dig in.
1:58:29 > 1:58:35Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU by a majority of 56%.
1:58:35 > 1:58:39Sinn Fein immediately demanded a border poll...
1:58:39 > 1:58:41We're calling for a border poll, of course,
1:58:41 > 1:58:43because we're united Irelanders.
1:58:43 > 1:58:46..but was quickly dismissed by Arlene Foster.
1:58:46 > 1:58:48The Secretary of State has already indicated
1:58:48 > 1:58:52that the test has not been met to call a border poll.
1:58:52 > 1:58:55I suppose the call for the border poll
1:58:55 > 1:58:58was as predictable as the flowers in May.
1:58:58 > 1:59:02We knew it would come, but the test has not been met.
1:59:02 > 1:59:04The Sinn Fein president has said
1:59:04 > 1:59:07taking Northern Ireland out of the EU
1:59:07 > 1:59:09will destroy the Good Friday Agreement,
1:59:09 > 1:59:11claiming it would be a "hostile action".
1:59:13 > 1:59:17Brexit poses unprecedented political, economic
1:59:17 > 1:59:21and diplomatic challenges to peace and prosperity on this island.
1:59:21 > 1:59:24But in an interview to an online news channel,
1:59:24 > 1:59:28Gerry Adams also said that Brexit may offer the chance
1:59:28 > 1:59:31to win further political concessions.
1:59:31 > 1:59:35In a way, then, Brexit is a gift for you, right?
1:59:35 > 1:59:36You campaigned against it,
1:59:36 > 1:59:38but now that it's happening,
1:59:38 > 1:59:41you're using it to make the case for a united Ireland.
1:59:41 > 1:59:43Yeah, well you always have to...
1:59:43 > 1:59:47never waste a crisis, never waste a difficulty.
1:59:47 > 1:59:49We don't believe in a scorched earth policy
1:59:49 > 1:59:52for creating a united Ireland. We want to build this place up,
1:59:52 > 1:59:54we want to, of course, integrate across the island,
1:59:54 > 1:59:57but we need to have Northern Ireland working as well,
1:59:57 > 2:00:00and I just think it's a very dangerous kind of strategy
2:00:00 > 2:00:02to say, "Let's have Brexit and that will somehow
2:00:02 > 2:00:04"magically bring a united Ireland."
2:00:04 > 2:00:08The DUP led the Leave campaign In Northern Ireland.
2:00:08 > 2:00:12Some suggest that unionists who voted for Brexit
2:00:12 > 2:00:16may unintentionally have advanced the prospect of a united Ireland.
2:00:17 > 2:00:20People are now talking, to some extent seriously,
2:00:20 > 2:00:22about a united Ireland again,
2:00:22 > 2:00:23as a consequence of Brexit.
2:00:23 > 2:00:25I think the DUP had not really thought through Brexit.
2:00:25 > 2:00:27They hadn't really thought about the border.
2:00:27 > 2:00:29Very few people had thought about the border.
2:00:30 > 2:00:32UUP party leader Mike Nesbitt,
2:00:32 > 2:00:34who campaigned to Remain,
2:00:34 > 2:00:37warned that Brexit could lead to the break-up of the UK.
2:00:39 > 2:00:43I'm not sure how deeply anybody thought
2:00:43 > 2:00:46about the vote and, you know, I think what has been destabilising
2:00:46 > 2:00:48is the lack of response
2:00:48 > 2:00:50from the Northern Ireland Executive to Brexit.
2:00:52 > 2:00:55The politics of identity, some suggest,
2:00:55 > 2:00:59is at the core of much of the friction at Stormont.
2:00:59 > 2:01:02The result is an increasingly polarised political discourse
2:01:02 > 2:01:06because, according to some, the middle has been hollowed out.
2:01:08 > 2:01:11This is the border between Arlene Foster
2:01:11 > 2:01:13and Michelle O'Neill's constituencies -
2:01:13 > 2:01:18the leaders of the two biggest parties in a power-sharing system
2:01:18 > 2:01:21that seems to leave less and less room
2:01:21 > 2:01:24for the middle ground of Northern Ireland politics.
2:01:27 > 2:01:30There was clearly a view in governments in London and Dublin
2:01:30 > 2:01:33that we needed to bring in the extremes into government
2:01:33 > 2:01:34in order for it to work,
2:01:34 > 2:01:38and that's an understandable strategy, but it hasn't worked.
2:01:38 > 2:01:40We now don't have a government.
2:01:40 > 2:01:43Even when we did have a government, they didn't deliver anything.
2:01:43 > 2:01:47The middle ground wants to work together, the other's don't.
2:01:47 > 2:01:51Mike Nesbitt's recent comments that he intends to give the SDLP
2:01:51 > 2:01:54his second preference vote in the upcoming election
2:01:54 > 2:01:57sparked controversy within his party,
2:01:57 > 2:01:59but he's denied he made a mistake.
2:01:59 > 2:02:01I think there's a middle step,
2:02:01 > 2:02:03and it's the one I'm calling for in this election,
2:02:03 > 2:02:05and that is a partnership of the willing.
2:02:05 > 2:02:08It's still going to be compulsory, it's still mandatory,
2:02:08 > 2:02:10but it's done between two parties
2:02:10 > 2:02:13who are doing it for a bigger and better reason.
2:02:13 > 2:02:15I think it is a very brave call of Mike Nesbitt
2:02:15 > 2:02:18to call for cross-community transfers across the divide,
2:02:18 > 2:02:21because it goes against all the statistical evidence
2:02:21 > 2:02:24in respect of cross-community transfers that we have had to date,
2:02:24 > 2:02:30so it would be a brave, bold new era for Northern Ireland if it happens.
2:02:30 > 2:02:33If we are going to be 21st century leaders,
2:02:33 > 2:02:35we need to be confident enough to say,
2:02:35 > 2:02:37as a unionist - I am a proud unionist -
2:02:37 > 2:02:41"The union is safe but it will be even safer
2:02:41 > 2:02:45"if nationalists are comfortable within Northern Ireland."
2:02:47 > 2:02:48For Alliance leader Naomi Long,
2:02:48 > 2:02:51the common good should be the driving force
2:02:51 > 2:02:53for a new power sharing Executive.
2:02:53 > 2:02:55Power sharing, in its truest form,
2:02:55 > 2:03:00where it's focused on the people we serve, and not self-service,
2:03:00 > 2:03:02ought, actually, to be relatively simple.
2:03:02 > 2:03:06There are of course philosophical divisions between parties,
2:03:06 > 2:03:08people who have different perspectives on the economy,
2:03:08 > 2:03:10people who have different perspectives
2:03:10 > 2:03:11even on moral questions,
2:03:11 > 2:03:14but we should be able to work through those together,
2:03:14 > 2:03:15in terms of power sharing,
2:03:15 > 2:03:17by being able to see the bigger picture,
2:03:17 > 2:03:19and that is what is in the best interests
2:03:19 > 2:03:21of the public that we're here to serve.
2:03:24 > 2:03:26The Good Friday Agreement generation
2:03:26 > 2:03:28has largely grown up under devolution.
2:03:29 > 2:03:31Hiya. I'm Jennifer. Nice to meet you.
2:03:31 > 2:03:36'I've come to meet a group of them - all politics students at Queen's.'
2:03:36 > 2:03:39I think we should move to an adversarial system of government,
2:03:39 > 2:03:42where we have an official government and an official opposition, and
2:03:42 > 2:03:47they actually can take turns to be the government and the opposition.
2:03:47 > 2:03:48Do you think that politics at Stormont
2:03:48 > 2:03:51is a fair reflection of society?
2:03:51 > 2:03:57I think parties here, they have their strongholds and they know that
2:03:57 > 2:03:59they're safe in those strongholds, and they focus all of their efforts,
2:03:59 > 2:04:02all of their political will, towards those strongholds.
2:04:02 > 2:04:04They don't try to reach out. There's no need for them
2:04:04 > 2:04:07to shake up their policies or to progress in any way.
2:04:07 > 2:04:08Just to take a straw poll.
2:04:08 > 2:04:11Who here thinks that power sharing is working?
2:04:13 > 2:04:15'Just 4 out of 12.'
2:04:16 > 2:04:20I think power sharing has been good. You know, we have
2:04:20 > 2:04:24went through a lot of problems in this country, and it has helped us
2:04:24 > 2:04:27to move forward as a society.
2:04:27 > 2:04:30I think the kind of prevailing opinion, particularly amongst
2:04:30 > 2:04:35our generation, is that power sharing was great in 1998, it
2:04:35 > 2:04:39has brought peace, but we do need a change in the structures of
2:04:39 > 2:04:42government, the structures of how our politics actually works
2:04:42 > 2:04:46here. I think we have a serious problem with a lack of
2:04:46 > 2:04:49accountability within our Assembly, within our government.
2:04:51 > 2:04:54It seems likely fresh talks on the other side of the election
2:04:54 > 2:04:58will consider potential structural changes at Stormont.
2:04:59 > 2:05:03We'd actually like to see a review, reform and revitalisation
2:05:03 > 2:05:04of the Good Friday Agreement
2:05:04 > 2:05:07to bring our structures up to the modern day.
2:05:07 > 2:05:10I think we'd have to look at, for example, voluntary coalition.
2:05:10 > 2:05:13I think we do need to get rid of community designation
2:05:13 > 2:05:16and stop dividing our society as nationalist and unionist -
2:05:16 > 2:05:20it's about one Northern Ireland, not two divided communities.
2:05:20 > 2:05:21So I think we should do that,
2:05:21 > 2:05:23but I think we should do it in the context
2:05:23 > 2:05:24of a constitutional convention,
2:05:24 > 2:05:27where we bring in citizens to have their say.
2:05:27 > 2:05:28It was the people's agreement,
2:05:28 > 2:05:32we need to return it back to the people.
2:05:32 > 2:05:33The centrepiece of the Belfast Agreement
2:05:33 > 2:05:36was mandatory coalition, and it's lying in tatters.
2:05:36 > 2:05:38I am not opposed to voluntary coalition.
2:05:38 > 2:05:40That's the only way we are going to get
2:05:40 > 2:05:43durable, respectable, workable devolution.
2:05:43 > 2:05:46You have to work it on the basic democratic process
2:05:46 > 2:05:49that the people are those who have the discretion
2:05:49 > 2:05:52as to who is in government and who is out,
2:05:52 > 2:05:56and recognising that, at its heart, voluntary not mandatory coalition
2:05:56 > 2:05:58is the way to go. If that can't be done,
2:05:58 > 2:06:01then this Stormont and these structures
2:06:01 > 2:06:05are not worth keeping, because they are not delivering.
2:06:07 > 2:06:10It isn't just those determined to scrap mandatory coalition
2:06:10 > 2:06:13who recognise it can have serious drawbacks.
2:06:15 > 2:06:18I do think there are dangers in the sort of forced coalition system
2:06:18 > 2:06:20you have in power sharing,
2:06:20 > 2:06:22because it leads to a sort of stasis in government -
2:06:22 > 2:06:23no-one is in opposition,
2:06:23 > 2:06:25everyone is in government and it leads to corruption,
2:06:25 > 2:06:27it leads to the staleness of any ideas.
2:06:27 > 2:06:33This systems privileges stability over almost everything else.
2:06:33 > 2:06:36Competence in government, accountability,
2:06:36 > 2:06:38all of those things come secondary.
2:06:38 > 2:06:39All the parties there,
2:06:39 > 2:06:44as long as they play the game of the tribal tribune -
2:06:44 > 2:06:47the person who's coming to represent the Gael or the planter,
2:06:47 > 2:06:51then you come home without necessarily delivering the goods,
2:06:51 > 2:06:52and you can always blame the other side
2:06:52 > 2:06:55for the fact that you didn't get the goods.
2:06:55 > 2:07:00But is Northern Ireland ready to scrap mandatory coalition
2:07:00 > 2:07:02in favour of majority rule?
2:07:02 > 2:07:04If you can get beyond sectarian parties
2:07:04 > 2:07:06then you could, of course, you could get have majoritarianism,
2:07:06 > 2:07:07but we are not there yet.
2:07:07 > 2:07:10We don't even seem to be even moving very fast in that direction.
2:07:10 > 2:07:11I don't believe in changing
2:07:11 > 2:07:14the mandatory coalition model that we have.
2:07:14 > 2:07:16I think we need to protect minorities,
2:07:16 > 2:07:18and that's the vehicle for doing it.
2:07:18 > 2:07:20We need to change how we operate in the Assembly.
2:07:20 > 2:07:23We need to get rid of half of the Spads that we have.
2:07:23 > 2:07:26We need to curb their pay and curb their power.
2:07:26 > 2:07:27I think those are the kinds of things
2:07:27 > 2:07:29that could begin to open Stormont up.
2:07:29 > 2:07:33If a power sharing Executive cannot be formed after the election,
2:07:33 > 2:07:36a return to direct rule may supersede
2:07:36 > 2:07:39efforts to restore devolution.
2:07:39 > 2:07:40Sinn Fein might take a gamble
2:07:40 > 2:07:43that direct rule will have a greener tinge to it,
2:07:43 > 2:07:46because the British government needs the Irish government at the moment
2:07:46 > 2:07:48on issues relating to Brexit,
2:07:48 > 2:07:52and so direct rule might be not quite the same from Westminster
2:07:52 > 2:07:54over the next couple of years as it would normally.
2:07:54 > 2:07:56Direct rule is unpopular.
2:07:56 > 2:07:59Most people do want a devolved government in Northern Ireland,
2:07:59 > 2:08:00or you could have joint authority,
2:08:00 > 2:08:03which would be a hard sell to unionists, to put it mildly.
2:08:03 > 2:08:04Until we get to the point
2:08:04 > 2:08:06where people stop trying each other's patience
2:08:06 > 2:08:09and start to be a little more gracious,
2:08:09 > 2:08:10and perhaps a little more generous
2:08:10 > 2:08:12in how they operate these institutions,
2:08:12 > 2:08:16we will continue to find ourselves back at this juncture.
2:08:16 > 2:08:17It's Saturday morning,
2:08:17 > 2:08:21and East Belfast Football Club is playing against 18th Newtownabbey
2:08:21 > 2:08:24in the quarterfinal of the Templeton Cup.
2:08:27 > 2:08:30I'm here to find out how the election pledges
2:08:30 > 2:08:31and political party appeals
2:08:31 > 2:08:34are playing with a younger generation in East Belfast.
2:08:36 > 2:08:39I think Stormont is almost akin to the likes of a playground.
2:08:39 > 2:08:42The DUP and Sinn Fein tap into the things
2:08:42 > 2:08:44that are most dearest to us in the community -
2:08:44 > 2:08:46they tap into our identity. They tap into...
2:08:47 > 2:08:49Sinn Fein are looking at Irish language,
2:08:49 > 2:08:52the DUP tap into our potential anxiety,
2:08:52 > 2:08:53but our passion for the union.
2:08:53 > 2:08:55But they use that, actually, to their own advantage -
2:08:55 > 2:08:58whether it's to get votes, whether it's to get popularity, whether...
2:08:58 > 2:09:01It's ultimately, in my opinion, to get power.
2:09:03 > 2:09:07Would you trust a nationalist or a republican First Minister?
2:09:07 > 2:09:10I can't seem to trust my own local, my own politicians,
2:09:10 > 2:09:12so it's hard to take that I'll trust somebody
2:09:12 > 2:09:14on the other side of the community.
2:09:16 > 2:09:19It doesn't matter whether it's a Green First Minister
2:09:19 > 2:09:20or another First Minister,
2:09:20 > 2:09:22they both have to sort of come to terms
2:09:22 > 2:09:24and make a decision between themselves.
2:09:24 > 2:09:26One can't do one without the other.
2:09:26 > 2:09:30Will you vote, and what would you like to see done with your vote?
2:09:30 > 2:09:32I'm not too sure, personally, if I will vote.
2:09:32 > 2:09:36It's obviously clear what's going on up there is a shambles.
2:09:36 > 2:09:38Maybe it'd be better saying what I don't want to see done
2:09:38 > 2:09:41with my vote. I don't want to see just a continued pattern of things
2:09:41 > 2:09:44that have been happening for the last 20 years.
2:09:45 > 2:09:49Our country was so desperate to put an end to the conflict we had
2:09:49 > 2:09:53that we substituted a violent conflict for a political one,
2:09:53 > 2:09:55and the latter is far better than the former,
2:09:55 > 2:09:58but both of them seem equally ineffective.
2:10:04 > 2:10:06Power sharing offers all the major parties
2:10:06 > 2:10:09a seat at the Executive table,
2:10:09 > 2:10:12but it can't force them to agree once they get there.
2:10:12 > 2:10:15And of all the issues that continue to divide,
2:10:15 > 2:10:17none is more poisonous than the past.
2:10:19 > 2:10:22Last week, in her home village in County Tyrone,
2:10:22 > 2:10:24Michelle O'Neill attended a commemoration
2:10:24 > 2:10:29of four IRA men who were shot dead by the SAS 25 years ago.
2:10:29 > 2:10:31These four young men that we remember tonight
2:10:31 > 2:10:33weren't afraid of any challenge.
2:10:33 > 2:10:35They faced it head on.
2:10:35 > 2:10:38They did so out of a desire to build a new future.
2:10:40 > 2:10:45In Belfast, in a BBC studio, Arlene Foster gave her reaction.
2:10:45 > 2:10:48There can be no equivalence between terrorism
2:10:48 > 2:10:52and those people who stood between those of us in society
2:10:52 > 2:10:54who were living through it,
2:10:54 > 2:10:58ie the security forces who were protecting people
2:10:58 > 2:11:01and terrorists who were going out in the dark of night to murder people.
2:11:01 > 2:11:02There are some who would say
2:11:02 > 2:11:05we have no right to remember or honour them.
2:11:05 > 2:11:08We have absolutely every right.
2:11:08 > 2:11:11What do you make of her attendance at that event tonight?
2:11:11 > 2:11:14I mean, it is what it is, and, eh...
2:11:14 > 2:11:18I have to say no surprise given her antecedents,
2:11:18 > 2:11:20so I'm not surprised.
2:11:22 > 2:11:27The pain of victims' families is proving an insoluble problem.
2:11:28 > 2:11:31You could never change what had happened for them,
2:11:31 > 2:11:35but the one thing that they always used to say,
2:11:35 > 2:11:37and I would say to them,
2:11:37 > 2:11:42their sacrifices helped us to work for the future.
2:11:44 > 2:11:49I never said that... When you take the number of people who died
2:11:49 > 2:11:53and the number of the injured, it's just short of 40,000.
2:11:53 > 2:11:57I never said you could deal with each of those individual cases.
2:11:57 > 2:12:01And I don't really feel that if you keep trying to do that
2:12:01 > 2:12:04or talking about trying to do that, it's a good idea.
2:12:04 > 2:12:07It's not possible. It's just not possible.
2:12:12 > 2:12:16From this hill in Dungannon you are supposed to get a clear view
2:12:16 > 2:12:19of all of Northern Ireland and beyond,
2:12:19 > 2:12:20but not on a misty day.
2:12:22 > 2:12:25Some argue our view of the past is clouded
2:12:25 > 2:12:29as much by what we forget as by what we remember.
2:12:30 > 2:12:34There is a bit of a problem in that a generation has now grown up
2:12:34 > 2:12:38that did not experience the Troubles and did not realise
2:12:38 > 2:12:41the problems we were dealing with,
2:12:41 > 2:12:45and did not realise how those problems were in fact resolved.
2:12:45 > 2:12:47There are people, then, who are vulnerable
2:12:47 > 2:12:49because they don't know,
2:12:49 > 2:12:54and they may be fed an incorrect version of what happened.
2:12:54 > 2:12:58We have got to have a degree of frankness
2:12:58 > 2:13:03and an awareness of how we must ensure that it doesn't happen again.
2:13:04 > 2:13:06The Good Friday Agreement,
2:13:06 > 2:13:08a peace deal based on compromise,
2:13:08 > 2:13:11was endorsed by a majority in Northern Ireland.
2:13:12 > 2:13:16But in terms of understanding and trust between communities here,
2:13:16 > 2:13:19it seems at times like all and nothing has changed.
2:13:21 > 2:13:24I think a peace process is not a fairy story.
2:13:24 > 2:13:26You don't get to live happily ever after
2:13:26 > 2:13:27once you sign a peace agreement.
2:13:27 > 2:13:30So, no, Northern Ireland is not suddenly a perfect
2:13:30 > 2:13:32and wonderful society, but you no longer have the Troubles.
2:13:32 > 2:13:35I don't believe that you are going to go back to the Troubles,
2:13:35 > 2:13:36and that is a major gain.
2:13:36 > 2:13:39After the election, all of the major parties
2:13:39 > 2:13:44will have to decide what compromises they might be willing to make
2:13:44 > 2:13:46to put power sharing back together.
2:13:46 > 2:13:48If you don't get to a rapid agreement,
2:13:48 > 2:13:50it could go on for a very long time
2:13:50 > 2:13:53and both sides will then find it very difficult to compromise.
2:13:53 > 2:13:56It will be up to voters across Northern Ireland
2:13:56 > 2:14:00to decide who gets the opportunity to share power.
2:14:00 > 2:14:02Those elected will have to decide
2:14:02 > 2:14:06whether to sit at the table or sit it out.