23/03/2014

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:00:36. > :00:43.Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. The dust has barely

:00:44. > :00:46.settled on George Osborne's Budget and, amazingly, for once it hasn't

:00:47. > :00:48.all gone horribly wrong by the weekend. So, is this the election

:00:49. > :00:53.springboard the Tories needed, and where does it leave Labour? Turns

:00:54. > :00:57.out the big Budget surprise was a revolution in how we pay for old

:00:58. > :01:01.age. The Pensions Minister says he's relaxed if you want to spend it all

:01:02. > :01:07.on a Lamborghini. He'll join us later. And could the man with the

:01:08. > :01:10.maracas be on his way to Westminster? Bez from the Happy

:01:11. > :01:12.Mondays tells us about his unlikely plan to

:01:13. > :01:21.In the East Midlands: We are in Brussels at the European Parliament

:01:22. > :01:22.with four of our MEPs. They will be arguing the

:01:23. > :01:36.stay in Axbridge. Are there ways of making the European arrest warrant

:01:37. > :01:39.work better? -- Uxbridge. And who better to help guide you through all

:01:40. > :01:42.of that than three journalists, who dispense wisdom faster than Grant

:01:43. > :01:45.Shapps calls out the numbers in his local bingo hall over a pint of

:01:46. > :01:52.beer. Yes, they're hard-working and they're doing the things they enjoy.

:01:53. > :01:53.Cup of tea, number three. It's Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan

:01:54. > :02:02.Ganesh. So, George Osborne delivered his

:02:03. > :02:05.fifth Budget on Wednesday and had so many glowing front pages the day

:02:06. > :02:09.afterwards he must be running out of room to pin them up in on his

:02:10. > :02:12.bedroom wall. Although it's probably a pretty big wall. For those of you

:02:13. > :02:16.who didn't have time to watch 3.5 hours of Budget coverage on the BBC,

:02:17. > :02:44.here's Giles with the whole thing in three minutes.

:02:45. > :02:48.Budget days have a rhythm of their own, driven partly by tradition,

:02:49. > :02:51.like that photocall at 11 Downing Street and part logistics, how to

:02:52. > :02:59.get this important statement out and explain to those whom it affects -

:03:00. > :03:07.us? Behind-the-scenes of a Budget Day is much the same. This ritual

:03:08. > :03:11.red boxery may be the beginning of the end of weeks of work behind the

:03:12. > :03:14.scenes in the Treasury and sets the clock ticking on the process of

:03:15. > :03:17.finding out the answer to one question. You got any rabbits in the

:03:18. > :03:20.box, Chancellor? Yes, there will be something in the Budget we don't

:03:21. > :03:23.know about. Time marches steadily towards the statement and already

:03:24. > :03:29.commentators are hovering over what those potential surprises are. As

:03:30. > :03:32.Big Ben chimes, all focus returns to the Commons, where there is Prime

:03:33. > :03:38.Minister's questions and the Chancellor gets up and does his

:03:39. > :03:41.thing. Once he's on his feet and remembering there is still no copy

:03:42. > :03:46.of the details, the major measures are rapidly highlighted as they come

:03:47. > :03:53.and then put up on screen. A cap on Government welfare spending set for

:03:54. > :03:58.2015/16 at 119 billion. Income tax personal allowance raised to

:03:59. > :04:01.?10,500. Bingo duty halved, which ticked boxes for some but was

:04:02. > :04:07.unlikely to make anyone a poster boy. And the beer tax cut of 1p, or

:04:08. > :04:10.the froth on the top. And changes to pensions allowing people to take

:04:11. > :04:19.their money out in one lump sum, rather than being forced to accept a

:04:20. > :04:22.fixed annual pay-out, or annuity. This is a Budget for the makers, the

:04:23. > :04:26.doers and the savers and I commend it to the House. Not everyone can

:04:27. > :04:30.focus on the Budget by listening to what the Chancellor says. We need to

:04:31. > :04:34.get a copy of the script. We do not get that till he sits down. I'm

:04:35. > :04:41.going to go into the House of Commons to get that right now. There

:04:42. > :04:44.will be a response on that and all the other things from Mr Miliband.

:04:45. > :04:47.The Chancellor spoke for nearly an hour but he did not mention one

:04:48. > :04:52.essential fact, the working people of Britain are worse off under the

:04:53. > :04:55.Tories. It is a tricky job answering the Budget at the best of times,

:04:56. > :04:57.though some, including Labour MPs, think it is better to mention the

:04:58. > :05:05.Budget when you do. Here we are. I am going to go. I am

:05:06. > :05:09.not the only journalist missing Ed Miliband's speech. Many others leave

:05:10. > :05:14.the Chamber as the Chancellor sits down to attend a special briefing

:05:15. > :05:20.from the Chancellor's advisory team. I am hotfoot to the studio. There is

:05:21. > :05:23.a little more detail to the Budget than the Budget Speech. That detail

:05:24. > :05:26.can be whether words unravel and other interpretations emerge. By now

:05:27. > :05:34.the gaggle of supporters and detractors are taking the debate

:05:35. > :05:38.onto the airwaves. Are you the BBC? Have the Daily Politics packed up?

:05:39. > :05:40.No, we're still standing and, days later, still trying to assess

:05:41. > :05:44.whether the measures announced still seem fresh and appetising or have

:05:45. > :05:55.already gone stale in the minds of voters?

:05:56. > :06:06.How significant are these two poles this morning putting Labour and Tory

:06:07. > :06:12.nip and tuck? Osborne gave his party a good bounce. It was an

:06:13. > :06:16.astonishingly theatrical coup. At first glance, it seems like a huge

:06:17. > :06:21.gift to all people. That is where all of the money has been channelled

:06:22. > :06:24.by this government. They have been ultra-protected, triple locked.

:06:25. > :06:30.Pensioners have done very well and others less well. It is not

:06:31. > :06:33.surprising. Normally a budget which is well received on the day and the

:06:34. > :06:41.day after has unravelled by the weekend. This time, it has not, so

:06:42. > :06:44.far. The dangerous thing for the Labour Party now, George Osborne is

:06:45. > :06:49.the assessment this thing called the baseline. He says, in government,

:06:50. > :06:55.you must control the baseline. The Labour party controlled in 2001 and

:06:56. > :06:58.2005 and he needs to control it next time. He is controlling it on fiscal

:06:59. > :07:03.policy because labour is matching them on everything. The danger for

:07:04. > :07:08.Labour on the big, headline grabbing issue, which was freeing up

:07:09. > :07:12.annuities on pensions, that again Labour was pretty much saying it was

:07:13. > :07:16.going to support it though it were saying it has to be fair and

:07:17. > :07:22.cost-effective. On a big, policy issue, they are following on behind

:07:23. > :07:26.George Osborne. George Osborne is controlling the crucial baseline.

:07:27. > :07:34.Are we in danger of reading too much into the political implications of

:07:35. > :07:39.the budget? The good thing about the pensions policy is, if it does

:07:40. > :07:45.unravel, it will not happen for ten years and, by that time, George

:07:46. > :07:49.Osborne will have left office. Towards the end of his speech, I

:07:50. > :07:53.thought, that is not enough. There is not an idea in your budget which

:07:54. > :07:58.is politically very vivid a year before an election. What I

:07:59. > :08:02.underestimated was, how many frustrated savers that are in the

:08:03. > :08:07.country. There are a lot of people who are frustrated by low interest

:08:08. > :08:12.rates and tax rates on pension pots. This was an explicit gesture for

:08:13. > :08:17.them. That is what has paid off in the polls in the past few days. You

:08:18. > :08:24.spend all of your money on your wardrobe, is that right? The bingo

:08:25. > :08:28.poster was a kind of get out of jail card for Labour. It gave them

:08:29. > :08:33.something to zoom in on. Everyone beat up on Grant Shapps, the Tory

:08:34. > :08:38.chairman. We read in the daily Telegraph that the fingerprints of

:08:39. > :08:44.the Chancellor were all over this poster. The Chancellor signed off it

:08:45. > :08:54.-- off on it and so did Lynton Crosby. They referred to working

:08:55. > :08:58.class people as, they are. How did it get into the Telegraph? We can

:08:59. > :09:05.only presume but grant Shapps made it clear that it was not him. We had

:09:06. > :09:08.a time when Labour politicians, we saw from the response of Ed Miliband

:09:09. > :09:12.onwards, they were not quite sure how to react to this budget. A lot

:09:13. > :09:18.of detail had to be absorbed. Suddenly, here is something we can

:09:19. > :09:28.talk about. You can see the thinking behind the poster was very sensible.

:09:29. > :09:30.We are not Tory toffs, we are interested in helping people who do

:09:31. > :09:37.not come from our backgrounds. The wording was awful and played into

:09:38. > :09:43.every cliche. It was all his fault. It shows how unsophisticated he

:09:44. > :09:53.was. There were people from Tory HQ who agreed the budget. A month down

:09:54. > :10:00.the line will the budget look as good? Probably. Once people look at

:10:01. > :10:03.it, pensions are fiendishly conjugated. Once they look and see

:10:04. > :10:07.what it will do with people having to pay for their own care because

:10:08. > :10:10.they can now take capital at their pension, that will come as a shock

:10:11. > :10:19.to a lot of people with small savings. It all be gone on their

:10:20. > :10:23.care. The polling will be neck and neck all the way. In the past,

:10:24. > :10:27.George Osborne has been accused of using his Budgets to tinker at the

:10:28. > :10:29.margins or pull cheap tricks on his political opponents. Perish the

:10:30. > :10:32.thought. But the big surprise in this year's statement was a

:10:33. > :10:42.genuinely radical shake-up of the pensions system that will affect

:10:43. > :10:46.most people who've yet to retire. At the moment, everyone is saving money

:10:47. > :10:52.into a defined contribution pension, that is the type most common in the

:10:53. > :10:56.private sector. They can take 25% of the pot is a tax-free lump sum when

:10:57. > :11:01.they retire. The rest of the money, for most people, they are forced to

:11:02. > :11:04.buy an annuity, a form of insurance which provide a guaranteed monthly

:11:05. > :11:10.income until they die. Annuities have hardly been a bargain since

:11:11. > :11:17.interest rates were flat slashed following the financial crash. Even

:11:18. > :11:22.with a ?100,000 pension pot would only get an income of ?5,800 a year

:11:23. > :11:27.at current rates. From 2018, pensioners will not be forced to buy

:11:28. > :11:33.an annuity. They can do what they like with their money, even taking

:11:34. > :11:40.the entire pot as a lump some but paying tax on 75% of it.

:11:41. > :11:48.With an average pension pot closer to around ?30,000, pensioners would

:11:49. > :11:54.be more likely to buy a Skoda instead of a Lamborghini. Most newly

:11:55. > :11:59.retired people who take the cash are more likely to spend the money

:12:00. > :12:03.paying off their mortgage, helping a family member to buy a property or

:12:04. > :12:06.investing the money elsewhere. Well, earlier I spoke to the Pensions

:12:07. > :12:09.Minister. He's a Lib Dem called Steve Webb. I began by asking him if

:12:10. > :12:16.he still thought the reforms might lead to pensioners splurging all

:12:17. > :12:20.their savings on supercars. What this reform is about is treating

:12:21. > :12:24.people as adults. For far too long, we have said, we will make sure you

:12:25. > :12:27.save for your old age and then we will control each year how much is

:12:28. > :12:33.spent on what you spend it on. What we are saying is because we have

:12:34. > :12:36.formed -- reformed the state pension, we will be much more

:12:37. > :12:40.relaxed about what people do with their own money. The evidence is

:12:41. > :12:45.that people who have been frugal and saved hard for retirement do not

:12:46. > :12:49.generally blows a lot. They will spin it out. It is treating people

:12:50. > :12:55.as adults and giving them choices they should have had all along. It

:12:56. > :13:01.is a red herring, isn't it? The average pension pot is between 25000

:13:02. > :13:09.and 30,000. Lamborghinis aren't an option, correct? I gather only about

:13:10. > :13:12.5000 people a year retiring can buy a flashy Italian sports car. It

:13:13. > :13:16.might be about paying off a mortgage, paying off outstanding

:13:17. > :13:20.debts. Maybe spending more money earlier in retirement when they are

:13:21. > :13:25.fit and able and can enjoy it more. We will give people guidance. We

:13:26. > :13:28.will make sure when they retire, there is someone to have a

:13:29. > :13:31.conversation with talking through the implications of spending the

:13:32. > :13:40.money early and options of investing it. This will be a real step

:13:41. > :13:42.forward. Even if you have a much bigger pension pot, say half ?1

:13:43. > :13:47.million, which is way bigger than the average, even then the marginal

:13:48. > :13:53.rates of tax will be a disincentive to take it all out at once. You will

:13:54. > :13:59.lose huge chunks of it at the 40% band and then the 45% band. The tax

:14:00. > :14:04.system gives you the incentive to spread it out if the tax threshold

:14:05. > :14:09.is a bit over 10000 and the state pension is a bit over 7000, the

:14:10. > :14:18.first 3000 you draw out in a given year is tax-free. The next band is

:14:19. > :14:21.at 20%. Spreading your money will mean you pay less tax. That is why,

:14:22. > :14:26.in general, people will not blow the lot up front. They will spread it

:14:27. > :14:31.out over their retirement. You have kept this policy quiet. Not even a

:14:32. > :14:37.hint. How did you test it? How did you make sure it would be robust?

:14:38. > :14:42.You did not do a consultation. I have been talking about freeing up

:14:43. > :14:46.the annuity market for a decade. The idea of giving people more choice.

:14:47. > :14:49.The government has relaxed rules over this Parliament. It was not a

:14:50. > :14:53.completely new idea. We know in places like Australia and America,

:14:54. > :15:02.people have these freedoms. We already have something to judge it

:15:03. > :15:04.by. We will spend the next year talking to people, working it

:15:05. > :15:07.through. There will be a three-month consultation. I want people to have

:15:08. > :15:11.choices about their own money. There is detail still to be worked out and

:15:12. > :15:16.we are in listening mode about how we implement it. When you announce

:15:17. > :15:21.something you cannot do widespread consultation, for the reasons I have

:15:22. > :15:24.given, you do run the risk of unforeseen consequences? Pension

:15:25. > :15:27.companies this morning are indicating, you, the government can

:15:28. > :15:35.write you are looking for ?25 billion of infrastructure investment

:15:36. > :15:42.from us. You hold our shell below the water line. That may not happen.

:15:43. > :15:58.We spoke internally about the implications for instruction --

:15:59. > :16:06.infrastructure. It seems to me there will still be long-term investments.

:16:07. > :16:11.Many people want to turn their whole pot into an income. I understand the

:16:12. > :16:14.insurance companies are lobbying, but I'm convinced there will still

:16:15. > :16:19.be plenty of money for investment and infrastructure. If the

:16:20. > :16:27.Chancellor's pro-savings measures work, that will generate more

:16:28. > :16:31.savings. With no requirement now to buy an annuity, surely it is the

:16:32. > :16:39.case that pension pots are another ordinary savings fund, so why should

:16:40. > :16:45.they continue to get favourable tax treatment? Bear in mind that a lot

:16:46. > :16:49.of the tax treatment of pensioners is tax deferred so most people pay

:16:50. > :16:55.tax at the standard rate. If they put money into a pension, they don't

:16:56. > :17:03.pay tax when they earn it, but they do at retirement. We do want, we

:17:04. > :17:09.will still have automatic enrolment into workplace pensions, we do want

:17:10. > :17:15.people to build up, because at age 20 and 30 nobody thinks about

:17:16. > :17:19.retirement. It is still vital that people do reach retirement to have

:17:20. > :17:26.these new choices with a decent sized pension pot. Pensions. Tax

:17:27. > :17:30.breaks because they were supposed to provide an income in retirement,

:17:31. > :17:36.that is how it was structured, but that is no longer a requirement,

:17:37. > :17:43.surely that undermines the case that if they get tax breaks, other forms

:17:44. > :17:54.of savings should get tax breaks. Other forms do get tax breaks, of

:17:55. > :18:00.course. The return with ISAs is tax free. The point with pensions is

:18:01. > :18:09.that you are simply deferring your earnings. There is a bit when high

:18:10. > :18:14.tax rate payers get a kick when they are working and then retire on

:18:15. > :18:19.standard rate, so there is the issue of the top getting too many tax

:18:20. > :18:25.breaks, but the basic principle that you pay tax when you get the income

:18:26. > :18:30.seems right to me and isn't affected by these changes. You have announced

:18:31. > :18:35.save friendly measures, are we right to look at them as a consolation

:18:36. > :18:39.prize because savers have suffered from the Government's policy of

:18:40. > :18:44.keeping interest rates abnormally low? It is certainly the case that

:18:45. > :18:51.very low interest rates have been a huge boon to people of working age

:18:52. > :18:54.with mortgages, and people who have retired said they thought they could

:18:55. > :18:59.have got a better deal on their savings. I think there is a

:19:00. > :19:04.recognition that whilst we have done the right thing with pensioners on

:19:05. > :19:16.the state pension, we have brought in the triple lock, and many will

:19:17. > :19:21.bent on -- benefit from these changes. Why don't savers who are

:19:22. > :19:27.not pensioners get the same help? They have been hit by low interest

:19:28. > :19:32.rates as well. Those of working age, many of them say they have

:19:33. > :19:39.benefited from low interest rates was predominantly people in

:19:40. > :19:46.retirement have not had the benefit. Obviously people of working age will

:19:47. > :19:55.have benefited from the tax allowance so it is a myth to say the

:19:56. > :19:59.Budget was all about pensioners. And yet even when the Office for Budget

:20:00. > :20:02.Responsibility takes into account your new measures, it still shows

:20:03. > :20:09.that over the next five years households will save less and less,

:20:10. > :20:15.indeed the savings ratio falls by 50%. You haven't done enough. One of

:20:16. > :20:20.the things we know is that the economy is picking up strongly, and

:20:21. > :20:23.as we have more confidence about the future they will be more willing to

:20:24. > :20:28.consume now, so without these measures it may be that the saving

:20:29. > :20:36.rate would have fallen further. We want people to save and spend, it is

:20:37. > :20:39.about getting the right balance. As the economy picks up, people will

:20:40. > :20:45.want to spend more of their money and it is about getting the balance

:20:46. > :20:49.right. You make the point that if people are little profligate with

:20:50. > :20:53.their private pensions, they will have the state pension to fall back

:20:54. > :20:58.on and it will be higher than it has been, but it is also the case that

:20:59. > :21:04.in these circumstances they will still be entitled to housing benefit

:21:05. > :21:10.and even to perhaps some council tax benefit as well. Do you know by how

:21:11. > :21:15.much this could put the welfare bill up? We think the impact will be

:21:16. > :21:19.relatively modest because the sort of people who save for a pension and

:21:20. > :21:26.make sacrifices while they are at work are not the sort of people who

:21:27. > :21:30.get to 65 and decide to blow the lot for the great privilege of receiving

:21:31. > :21:32.council tax benefit or housing benefit. There will be people on the

:21:33. > :21:44.margins and benefit. There will be people on the

:21:45. > :21:47.who retire with some capital want to put some money away for their

:21:48. > :21:52.funeral. People like to save even into retirement so the myth of the

:21:53. > :22:01.spendthrift pensioner I don't believe. I think this has been

:22:02. > :22:07.rightly welcomed. Ever fancied a Lamborghini yourself? If you turned

:22:08. > :22:20.the camera around you would see my 2-door Corsa!

:22:21. > :22:23.What's your favourite thing about an election? Could it be the candidates

:22:24. > :22:26.ringing on your door while you're having dinner? The leaflets piling

:22:27. > :22:28.up on your doormat? Or the endless adverts aimed at hardworking

:22:29. > :22:32.families? Well, if you thought that was bad enough, then you might want

:22:33. > :22:35.to consider going overseas for the 2015 election because the parties

:22:36. > :22:40.are going to be aiming their message at you like never before. Adam's

:22:41. > :22:45.been to Worcester to find out more. One of the most famous political

:22:46. > :22:49.figures in history lived here, she is called Worcester woman. She was

:22:50. > :22:54.in her 30s, working class with a couple of kids, aspirational yet

:22:55. > :22:58.worried about quality of life. But she wasn't a real person, she was a

:22:59. > :23:03.label for the kind of voter new Labour were trying to reach and she

:23:04. > :23:10.was later joined by Mondeo man and several others. Doesn't that all

:23:11. > :23:17.seem a bit 90s? The technique, called segmentation, was used by

:23:18. > :23:21.George Bush in 2004. Then refined by Barack Obama. Rather than focusing

:23:22. > :23:27.on crude measures like cars and hometowns, they delved into the

:23:28. > :23:31.minds of voters. It is not just women, not just people who live in

:23:32. > :23:36.cities, but if you start to put together these groups of people you

:23:37. > :23:46.can even in an anecdote or way imagine who they are, what types of

:23:47. > :23:51.language and imagery might relate to them. We have been given access to a

:23:52. > :23:57.new polling model being used here by this firm, which is pretty close to

:23:58. > :24:01.the one we are told is being used by the Tories. It carves the country

:24:02. > :24:06.into six personality types, and we are trying it out on Worcester woman

:24:07. > :24:13.and wast of man. We are using an online quiz to work out who is in

:24:14. > :24:22.which segment. Meet new monk, Susie. She feels well represented. I

:24:23. > :24:28.know the Budget and the increases to childcare, I think at the moment I

:24:29. > :24:32.am fairly represented. This puts her in the category of optimistic

:24:33. > :24:38.contentment, people who feel they are doing OK. Terry, on the other

:24:39. > :24:46.hand, isn't happy about Britain today. Health and safety and all

:24:47. > :24:56.that! I hardly recognise the country a living in any more? Yes. Are you

:24:57. > :25:01.ready for the result? He is Mr comfortable nostalgia, they tend to

:25:02. > :25:06.favour the Tories and UKIP. They dislike the cultural changes they

:25:07. > :25:11.see as altering Britain for the worst. That sums me up. Tony is

:25:12. > :25:23.worried as well but feels much less secure. I look forward to the future

:25:24. > :25:33.with optimism or anxiety? Anxiety. Optimist or pessimist? Pessimist.

:25:34. > :25:39.His category is... You feel a bit insecure, you think the Government

:25:40. > :25:44.could probably help you more? Yes. Labour picks up a lot of these

:25:45. > :25:53.voters. This man is being asked to do more and more at work, but he is

:25:54. > :25:58.getting less and less. I am getting more towards the despair side.

:25:59. > :26:03.Things are getting tougher, generally? It puts him into the

:26:04. > :26:12.segment called long-term despair, people who feel left out. Finally,

:26:13. > :26:21.this is ever thoughtful Carol. I am a bit of an idealist. Her idealism

:26:22. > :26:25.makes her a cosmopolitan critic. I am a liberal person. Apparently a

:26:26. > :26:32.lot of the media fit into this category as well. There is one group

:26:33. > :26:35.of voters we have not come across, people who show calm persistence.

:26:36. > :26:40.They hope things will get better but don't expect them to. They are

:26:41. > :26:45.coping, rather than comfortable. Presumably they are all out of work.

:26:46. > :26:50.Which group are you win? You can take the poll on the BBC website,

:26:51. > :26:55.and in the coming weeks we will be doing our own polling using the six

:26:56. > :27:02.segments to see of the politicians really have worked out how we think.

:27:03. > :27:06.And as Adam said, if you want to try the survey for yourself, you can go

:27:07. > :27:08.to the BBC website and click on the link.

:27:09. > :27:18.And we're joined now by the pollster, Rick Nye. Welcome to

:27:19. > :27:24.Sunday Politics. We have had Worcester woman, Worcester man, is

:27:25. > :27:40.this any different? It is a recognition that or politician --

:27:41. > :27:48.all politics these days is like this. It enables them to cut them

:27:49. > :27:52.more finally. You think all politics is coalition politics, you think

:27:53. > :27:59.they have to put together these groups of people, not that the Lib

:28:00. > :28:04.Dems will always be in power? No, and if you listen to the coverage

:28:05. > :28:10.these days you might think it is about grumpy old men on the one hand

:28:11. > :28:14.with Guardian readers on the other. It is far more complicated than

:28:15. > :28:21.that, there is a lot of churning going on underneath which is driven

:28:22. > :28:25.by people's value systems. A lot of this has been pioneered in the

:28:26. > :28:29.United States, very sophisticated on their election techniques, and in

:28:30. > :28:35.Britain we are always the first to grab whatever the New Year will is

:28:36. > :28:40.from America. How do you think this will translate to this country? I

:28:41. > :28:45.think it means that if you are target photo you will still get the

:28:46. > :28:48.same of leaflets and people calling, but you will probably have different

:28:49. > :28:55.kinds of conversations because people on the other side, the party

:28:56. > :29:01.campaigners, will think they know more about you. Will I know who you

:29:02. > :29:06.are? If I am a party campaigner, will I know, looking down the

:29:07. > :29:10.street, who fits into which category? You will be able to

:29:11. > :29:15.approximate that with all of the other data that you have gathered

:29:16. > :29:19.through polling, or doing local campaigning, that is the idea to

:29:20. > :29:26.make sense of this vast quantity of data people have about voters. We

:29:27. > :29:32.asked our panel to fill in your survey. Nick is optimistic

:29:33. > :29:37.contentment, 99%. He was 1% cosmopolitan critic, which is how he

:29:38. > :29:42.keeps his job at the Guardian. Polly's job could not be more

:29:43. > :29:48.secure, 100% cosmopolitan critics, and Janan Ganesh, optimistic

:29:49. > :29:54.contentment, which is what you would expect from a financial Times

:29:55. > :30:12.columnist. What do you make of this technique? Why are you only 99? It

:30:13. > :30:18.sounds really clever. 95% of the population five years ago voted

:30:19. > :30:22.Labour or the Conservatives. We have got away from that. It is coalition

:30:23. > :30:30.politics. You need sophisticated methods. Presumably you must not

:30:31. > :30:33.lose touch with basic points. You said it was used in the US

:30:34. > :30:40.presidential elections. Wasn't there them moment emit Romney 's sweet

:30:41. > :30:45.when the initial response was, we did not know the sort of people

:30:46. > :30:51.voted. His next response was, we did not know these people existed.

:30:52. > :30:57.Unless you know about certain key demographics, you are wasting your

:30:58. > :31:04.time. Is it important in modern campaigning? I think it is useful

:31:05. > :31:14.because it is about attitude. We have got Mosaic. We have got Acorn.

:31:15. > :31:18.It does not tell us very much. What people think and feel may be

:31:19. > :31:23.different to their income. You can be quite a high earner and anxious.

:31:24. > :31:26.You can be quite a low earner and feeling aspirational and optimistic

:31:27. > :31:34.about the future. I think this does get something else. In days gone by,

:31:35. > :31:39.particularly in America, overwhelmingly, if you are in the

:31:40. > :31:42.better of segment, you would be Republican and the blue-collar

:31:43. > :31:47.workers and some academics and Liberals voted Democrat. In the last

:31:48. > :31:51.election, the richest 200 counties in America voted Democrat. That is

:31:52. > :31:57.an attitude thing. Income does not tell you how people will vote. There

:31:58. > :32:02.is a huge, working-class base of support for the Republicans. It is

:32:03. > :32:06.unavoidable. Add a time when people no longer identify with ideologies

:32:07. > :32:20.or class blocks, you have to go the temperament and lifestyle and

:32:21. > :32:24.manageable. In America there were 128 segments according to lifestyle

:32:25. > :32:28.and Outlook. Once you get to that stage, it becomes close to useless.

:32:29. > :32:36.We were talking about the budget earlier. What other polls saying

:32:37. > :32:43.about the budget? The lead of labour has been narrowed over the

:32:44. > :32:51.Conservatives. -- Labour. Osborne and Cameron as an academic team have

:32:52. > :32:56.always had a lead over Miller band and Balls. This week it is about

:32:57. > :33:03.economic management. -- over Mr Miller band.

:33:04. > :33:14.Thank you for being with us today. It's just gone 11:30am. You're

:33:15. > :33:17.watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who

:33:18. > :33:37.leave us now for Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up here in 20

:33:38. > :33:44.We are in the European Parliament. In a few weeks time, we be voting in

:33:45. > :33:47.those important elections. We have four MEPs with us and we will be

:33:48. > :33:54.putting your questions to them as we take a closer look at Europe and

:33:55. > :33:57.what it means to us. If we stay in the EU, we would carry on with

:33:58. > :34:01.better subsidies but if we came out, we wouldn't have as much red tape.

:34:02. > :34:06.It would be nice if they tell us more about the benefits because we

:34:07. > :34:13.don't know any different. I can name the Parliamentary MPs but not the

:34:14. > :34:18.MEPs. Welcome to the plush TV studio at the European Parliament in

:34:19. > :34:24.Brussels. Let's meet our guests. A Conservative MEP for the East

:34:25. > :34:32.Midlands. The Liberal Democrats. Dennis Wilmot is the Labour MEP for

:34:33. > :34:42.our region. And here is one of two UKIP MEPs. Two months ago. I you

:34:43. > :34:45.excited? `2 months to go. Are you excited? I'm really excited. It is

:34:46. > :34:50.our chance every five years to tell people what we've been doing and

:34:51. > :34:53.what our policies are. We have a really clear message that the

:34:54. > :34:57.selection that if you want real change in Europe and if you want to

:34:58. > :35:01.have a referendum on the Conservative Party is the party to

:35:02. > :35:07.vote for. Is there a buzz about the place? Since the Lisbon Treaty came

:35:08. > :35:10.in a few years ago which changed the powers, this election matters

:35:11. > :35:15.enormously about what kind of Europe we are going to have in future. The

:35:16. > :35:21.Liberal Democrats want to stay in because we want to keep influence

:35:22. > :35:24.for Britain. How important do you think these elections are? They are

:35:25. > :35:30.very important but for a different reason. All three of the old parties

:35:31. > :35:33.have promised the British people a referendum on the European question.

:35:34. > :35:38.All three have failed to deliver. What we are saying is, this is your

:35:39. > :35:41.referendum. If you like Europe and want to stay in Europe, that's

:35:42. > :35:46.fine, you can vote for any of the old parties. If you want to make a

:35:47. > :35:52.statement and vote against British membership of the European Union,

:35:53. > :35:56.vote for UKIP. These elections are a taste of things to come. We are very

:35:57. > :36:00.excited about it because we are doing very well in the polls. It is

:36:01. > :36:04.also our chance to say why it is important that we have membership of

:36:05. > :36:08.a single market of 500 million people. That's a massive advantage.

:36:09. > :36:11.It means many thousands of jobs in the East Midlands. That's really

:36:12. > :36:18.important. There is a lot riding on this. We are constantly told that we

:36:19. > :36:23.want to be in the EU for jobs in the East Midlands. When we leave, trade

:36:24. > :36:27.will continue. China, America, Canada can all sell into Europe and

:36:28. > :36:31.so will we. And not worried about the jobs they think we are going to

:36:32. > :36:34.lose. I am worried about the jobs we are losing out because of European

:36:35. > :36:38.energy policy, immigration policy and the damage that the euro is

:36:39. > :36:44.doing, because of overregulation in the labour market. This is costing

:36:45. > :36:51.jobs today. We want out. It's absurd what Roger says. Shell, Nissan,

:36:52. > :36:55.Toyota, all sorts of enormous companies have all said Britain has

:36:56. > :37:00.to stay in, otherwise they could well move away from Britain. Where

:37:01. > :37:05.do the Tories sit on this? It is very clear. The choices for the

:37:06. > :37:12.people. You can vote Liberal Democrat, they want to stay in,

:37:13. > :37:15.Labour to stay in. UKIP Want to stay out. They don't have that power. If

:37:16. > :37:21.you vote Conservative, you will get your referendum and then the British

:37:22. > :37:24.people can decide. Our own research of voters tells us there is a good

:37:25. > :37:29.deal of confusion out there about what goes on here in Brussels. We've

:37:30. > :37:31.asked our political reporter to give us a tour of the European Parliament

:37:32. > :37:33.and explain everything you ever wanted to know about what goes on

:37:34. > :37:48.here but were too afraid to ask. This is the grand entrance of the

:37:49. > :37:53.European Parliament. Faces from 28 countries are staring down at me.

:37:54. > :38:00.751 MEPs will be voted in in May. Let's have a look inside. Inside,

:38:01. > :38:03.artwork like this. This piece is supposed to represent the unity of

:38:04. > :38:08.the European Union will stop there are eight buildings like this. There

:38:09. > :38:12.are a symbol that similar number in Strasberg with 14,000 people working

:38:13. > :38:17.inside. That's about the same number of people who work in our councils

:38:18. > :38:21.across the East Midlands. Plenty of TV crews, plenty of media

:38:22. > :38:26.attention, perhaps not for our British MEPs though, of which there

:38:27. > :38:31.are five and East Midlands. Each earns around ?75,500 a year, more

:38:32. > :38:38.than a British MP come up but on top of that, they can claim ?250 in a

:38:39. > :38:41.daily allowance. This is the main debating chamber. I would love to

:38:42. > :38:45.show you inside but unfortunately, the reef is falling in. Some might

:38:46. > :38:51.see a metaphor in that. It will only be open for one more session before

:38:52. > :38:54.the all important elections in May. Tim finished by talking about the

:38:55. > :39:04.European elections and they are the most keenly awaited in years. The

:39:05. > :39:07.big question is, how well UKIP will do and the damage they will inflict

:39:08. > :39:12.on the three main parties. How will you do? We think we are going to do

:39:13. > :39:15.well. I've been an MEP for 15 years. I've been campaigning throughout

:39:16. > :39:19.that period. I have never seen such a positive reaction on the doorstep,

:39:20. > :39:24.in the street. The best thing I can give you is a poll from a couple of

:39:25. > :39:31.days ago, when we were on 30%, Labour on 28%, conservatives on 21%

:39:32. > :39:37.and the Liberal Democrats on 8%. That is the running order now. How

:39:38. > :39:48.many in the East Midlands? To MEPs. We can be pretty clear. We can take

:39:49. > :39:52.those results. If we plug goes in to the system, you can be accurate. It

:39:53. > :39:58.is the public 's choice. They can vote as they choose. Are you

:39:59. > :40:03.worried? We have a very clear message from our party. If you want

:40:04. > :40:07.real work done here in Europe, if you want real reform and a real

:40:08. > :40:13.referendum and sundry that can deliver that, you have to vote

:40:14. > :40:19.Conservative. They can shout at the wind as much as they want to, UKIP,

:40:20. > :40:27.but we cannot get results for the UK. You worried about them? No, not

:40:28. > :40:32.really. Many people are voting UKIP cars they are a protest party. We

:40:33. > :40:36.have two concentrate on the issues that matter to people, issues like

:40:37. > :40:44.rights at work. People get four weeks paid holiday because of

:40:45. > :40:47.legislation in Europe. I would never ever be complacent. You never know

:40:48. > :40:53.the result until it is finished. I'm not being complacent. Let's be

:40:54. > :40:58.honest, predictions for your party are not good. You about to lose your

:40:59. > :41:05.seat? That is up to the public to decide. When we have the debate on

:41:06. > :41:08.BBC between Nick and Nigel, Nick is going to elevate the pro`Europeans

:41:09. > :41:12.and the Lib Dems would do a lot better than the 8% currently in the

:41:13. > :41:16.polls. You don't sound show yourself as to whether you will keep your

:41:17. > :41:22.seat. No politician should be sure. Are you worried? Some of those

:41:23. > :41:25.predictions are pretty dire. Senior Liberal Democrats are talking

:41:26. > :41:31.privately about the party being wiped out. The public will decide.

:41:32. > :41:35.We say we've got to stay in Europe for jobs and there are a large

:41:36. > :41:38.number of pro`European people in the East Midlands and we would like them

:41:39. > :41:46.to vote Lib Dem. Reject the ridiculous ideas of UKIP. Cameron's

:41:47. > :41:54.promise of a referendum is a cynical party management device, designed to

:41:55. > :41:57.get Eurosceptics of his back. He cannot get a significantly

:41:58. > :42:00.negotiation. He is unlikely to get into a position where he can

:42:01. > :42:06.deliver. The way to vote against British mentorship of the EU has to

:42:07. > :42:11.be to vote UKIP. The point about this is, we need to do what is in

:42:12. > :42:16.Britain's interest. It's in Britain's interest to be part of the

:42:17. > :42:20.EU. There are so many benefits. It would be stupidity to leave. We

:42:21. > :42:24.really have got to get across our message to people why it is

:42:25. > :42:29.important and why it's important we stay in the EU. Many jobs depend on

:42:30. > :42:34.it. 300,000 in the East Midlands alone. If we are on the inside, we

:42:35. > :42:41.can affect the future. We have an ability to vote. Outside, we will

:42:42. > :42:49.drift. We have very little influence here. We have about 8% of the vote.

:42:50. > :42:56.We do not have much influence. Roger's attendants that attendants

:42:57. > :43:02.record is bad. It's better than the average of your Lib Dems. Would you

:43:03. > :43:08.like to apologise? That's not true. You are not here yesterday. He

:43:09. > :43:17.didn't turn up. No, I was actually campaigning. I was campaigning in

:43:18. > :43:23.the region, like utility to. I was working in a region. No, you are

:43:24. > :43:28.not. You are an absentee. Should he be there all the time? He should be.

:43:29. > :43:33.I do serve the people of the East Midlands. The point I must make and

:43:34. > :43:38.I will make again, by voting dash my voting participation rate in the

:43:39. > :43:45.European Parliament is almost exactly the same as Bill's. It is

:43:46. > :43:51.higher than the average of Liberal Democrat MEPs. Is that important to

:43:52. > :43:54.people in the East Midlands? Let's get back to the issue. We have more

:43:55. > :43:59.say as a global player being part of Europe than we do on our own. This

:44:00. > :44:03.is about influence for the people we represent. We get more influence

:44:04. > :44:07.being part of the EU than not being part of the EU. Sometimes it seems

:44:08. > :44:15.you work against each other. Do you work together? People with nonsense

:44:16. > :44:21.policies want us to throw away all our influence. We need to listen to

:44:22. > :44:25.the people and it is people listening to politicians fighting

:44:26. > :44:29.amongst themselves which they are sick to death. This puts off

:44:30. > :44:37.politics. You are coming from different sides. There are things

:44:38. > :44:41.that we have to work together on and sometimes we put together. In this

:44:42. > :44:44.Parliament, we have to build alliances. Sometimes we do and

:44:45. > :44:48.sometimes we disagree. It depends on the issue. Let's leave that one

:44:49. > :44:53.there for the moment. What about you? We've been in Brussels and our

:44:54. > :44:57.political editor has been sampling local delicacies. Are there any

:44:58. > :45:04.connections with the folks back home?

:45:05. > :45:14.I am in the heart of the Belgian capital and it is celebrated for its

:45:15. > :45:20.lace, beers and chocolates. What else has it got that we haven't got?

:45:21. > :45:23.Where is that chocolate shop? Utopia does a fine line in chocolate as

:45:24. > :45:27.well but they are made at the company's shop in Nottingham. There

:45:28. > :45:32.is a definite Belgian influence here. They find being able to source

:45:33. > :45:35.supplies and packaging within the EU is a useful spin off from the

:45:36. > :45:41.European Union. It makes it easier to buy things in Europe. There are

:45:42. > :45:47.more convocations a few why anything outside the European Union. ``

:45:48. > :45:52.convocations. It is simpler to do tax and returns, things like that.

:45:53. > :45:57.In Brussels, they fancy themselves up making knockout beer. At places

:45:58. > :46:04.like this brewery, we can match them all the way. Traditional English

:46:05. > :46:08.ales and yet the brewery was built with 40% funding from Europe.

:46:09. > :46:12.Despite that cash help, the talk here is whether there is a financial

:46:13. > :46:22.case for staying in or pulling out. We need value for money. We need a

:46:23. > :46:26.clear strategy as to where we are going. We either join them for lawn

:46:27. > :46:32.or we don't. My personal view is that we join them. If we are not

:46:33. > :46:36.going to, let's step straight out. There is lamb on the menu here and

:46:37. > :46:40.the likelihood is it is British. It's one of the many exports from

:46:41. > :46:45.the East Midlands. It was valued at 1000 million pounds last year. For

:46:46. > :46:51.our farmers, the EU is or was on the menu. In Derbyshire, at the Bakewell

:46:52. > :46:57.cattle market, they are torn. They are aware that the EU, with its

:46:58. > :47:01.agricultural subsidies, is very pro`market but frustrated by red

:47:02. > :47:07.tape and wondering if it would be better if we left. The worst thing

:47:08. > :47:10.that happened was as going into the common market. We should be

:47:11. > :47:16.self`sufficient. We shouldn't be in this situation, ruled by what they

:47:17. > :47:23.do and everything. We should be on our own. Farmers would be better if

:47:24. > :47:26.we stayed in the European Union. We would carry on with better

:47:27. > :47:35.subsidies. But if we came out, we wouldn't have as much red tape like

:47:36. > :47:39.this EID system for the lambs. We are the biggest sheep industry in

:47:40. > :47:44.Europe. We should be saying what goes on. I am not sure that Britain

:47:45. > :47:48.as a whole would be better off staying in. I believe we would be

:47:49. > :47:55.better off out. From my own personal view, from making a living in the

:47:56. > :48:03.sheep trade, we are definitely better in. Act, react, impact. It is

:48:04. > :48:06.a slogan we will hear a lot of over the next few months as the European

:48:07. > :48:11.Parliament and the EU explain to us voters what these elections are all

:48:12. > :48:13.about. It would be nice if they did tell us more about what the benefits

:48:14. > :48:18.are because we don't know any different. Everyone is talking about

:48:19. > :48:24.the referendum but nobody actually knows the full detail. I could name

:48:25. > :48:28.a Parliamentary MPs but I never see them. The constituency is too big.

:48:29. > :48:32.Places like this can be a long way from home but with Europe going up

:48:33. > :48:36.the political agenda, many voters may have an appetite for more

:48:37. > :48:40.information about Europe and whether to embrace the EU or whether it is

:48:41. > :48:46.time to ask for the bill and to check out for good.

:48:47. > :48:49.Some interesting views and what seems to come across is that people

:48:50. > :48:54.are not necessarily hostile to Europe dashed towards Europe. Among

:48:55. > :49:04.those farmers there, there was a reluctant agreement that they are

:49:05. > :49:08.better off in. Top delete with macro there are some very powerful

:49:09. > :49:14.arguments for being in favour. Every pound you get in European grant

:49:15. > :49:17.funding costs them British Parliament threepence. I am very

:49:18. > :49:21.concerned about his idea that we wouldn't be able to trade if we

:49:22. > :49:25.left. The other point that I want to make is about farmers. Everybody

:49:26. > :49:28.agrees that in today's world, British farmers need a subsidy

:49:29. > :49:32.regime. Our point is quite simple. British farmers would be better off

:49:33. > :49:37.with a British subsidy regime, designed in Britain, rather than

:49:38. > :49:41.with a subsidy regime designed in Brussels for French farmers. Did you

:49:42. > :49:56.hear what the farmers said? They recognise there is a financial need

:49:57. > :49:58.to union, whether they personally felt they wanted to be in it.

:49:59. > :50:01.Financially, they felt they had to be. They were making the assumption

:50:02. > :50:04.that in the EU, they get payments but if they leave, that's the end of

:50:05. > :50:06.farm subsidies. My job is to reassure. We would have less

:50:07. > :50:12.regulation. You were sceptical about this. When we joined the European

:50:13. > :50:20.Union, it was for a common market, for the benefits of trade. It's a

:50:21. > :50:24.substantial contributor to the UK economy. What is in question is the

:50:25. > :50:29.level of interference we are having. We have been working hard in cutting

:50:30. > :50:32.that red tape and making sure people are actually working towards

:50:33. > :50:35.building an economy that is going to spill on growth and jobs. There is

:50:36. > :50:40.no getting away from it, there were a lot of sceptics in that film. I

:50:41. > :50:46.think partly because we don't get the message across well enough. When

:50:47. > :50:52.Emma talks about red tape, but the Conservatives are talking about are

:50:53. > :50:55.cutting rights at work, cart `` writes for part`time workers and for

:50:56. > :51:00.maternity provision. What is always said about the cost... I heard Roger

:51:01. > :51:07.talking about it. The CBI did a survey and each family is ?3000 a

:51:08. > :51:12.year better off... It's about information. They don't know who you

:51:13. > :51:18.are. Why is that? Some of you have been in Parliament in Europe for so

:51:19. > :51:22.long. We have to represent 3.5 million people in the East

:51:23. > :51:29.Midlands. It is physically impossible... Is that the problem?

:51:30. > :51:34.The cost of postage of a second`class stamp is 50p so we can

:51:35. > :51:38.certain letters out as well. It is physically impossible to reach these

:51:39. > :51:44.people. We don't get on national TV. This sounds like you're blaming us.

:51:45. > :51:49.The last thing is, the people who get the national media attention and

:51:50. > :51:53.are able of `` able to inform people other national leaders at

:51:54. > :51:58.Westminster. No party leader has ever talked about Europe in

:51:59. > :52:03.favourable terms. It would help if people in the East Midlands knew

:52:04. > :52:09.what it is you are doing for them. Can I give an example? I have a vote

:52:10. > :52:12.in a couple of weeks time on clinical trials. That means we will

:52:13. > :52:16.have medical research made easier and quicker. That brings new

:52:17. > :52:19.medicines to people in the East Midlands. I did that because I met

:52:20. > :52:22.cancer patients at the Nottingham hospital. That will be better for

:52:23. > :52:25.all of these patients suffering from those diseases. That is something we

:52:26. > :52:34.have done here. That's something practical. I can give an example.

:52:35. > :52:39.This very morning, I was arguing in a meeting that was taking place with

:52:40. > :52:43.the commission, that they should be reducing green energy subsidies,

:52:44. > :52:50.having the effect of reducing energy prices. I have brought into place,

:52:51. > :52:53.through working on the professional qualifications directive and alert

:52:54. > :52:57.mechanism so we will know if health care professionals working in this

:52:58. > :53:00.country have been struck off in another country. There will be an

:53:01. > :53:05.alert sent out to all countries in the EU and to also allow us to

:53:06. > :53:12.language test our professionals. That is something concrete that will

:53:13. > :53:17.change people 's lives. Mobile roaming charges would be got rid

:53:18. > :53:22.of. It's practical things that people care about. And also things

:53:23. > :53:26.like if you are bumped off your aircraft with your flight is

:53:27. > :53:32.cancelled, how you can actually make a claim for those sorts of things.

:53:33. > :53:36.It is not going to get us to the barricades. They don't know this

:53:37. > :53:38.comes from Europe. They think it is national legislation. The point I am

:53:39. > :53:42.making is this is European legislation. Glenys made a good

:53:43. > :53:48.point. The national ministers comeback from Brussels and claim the

:53:49. > :53:53.credit. They say I did this and that. They don't actually say it is

:53:54. > :53:57.the European Parliament. Another debate about whether we should be in

:53:58. > :54:03.Law out. Isn't that the time we gave voters once and for all the chance?

:54:04. > :54:08.You have to decide whether you think it is in Britain's interest. That is

:54:09. > :54:11.what you expect you to do. They expect you to take a lead. We

:54:12. > :54:18.believe it is in Britain's interest to be in the EU. We have been quite

:54:19. > :54:23.clear, there will be a referendum if there is any move of powers back to

:54:24. > :54:26.Brussels from the UK. There will be an in out referendum. That is our

:54:27. > :54:32.position. That is a sensible position to take. The uncertainty

:54:33. > :54:37.that the Conservatives are causing at the moment is for investment.

:54:38. > :54:39.Businesses tell me all the time they don't know whether to invest in

:54:40. > :54:43.Britain because they don't know whether we are going to be out in a

:54:44. > :54:47.couple of years time or not. We have to give that stability. We have said

:54:48. > :54:51.yes, we are in and we will have an in out referendum if there are

:54:52. > :54:57.powers... We need the referendum now. The reason why we cannot have

:54:58. > :55:01.the referendum now is because we need to get legislation through the

:55:02. > :55:04.House of Commons to have a referendum. These two parties won't

:55:05. > :55:08.let that happen. The remedy is, if we are going to have a new

:55:09. > :55:11.relationship with the EU going forward, needs to be the British

:55:12. > :55:15.people who make that decision. We need a referendum. We need a plan in

:55:16. > :55:20.place. There is no plan for the future from UKIP. We trust the

:55:21. > :55:23.British people which Labour and the Lib Dems don't, to make that

:55:24. > :55:27.decision. You don't have a plan because we don't know what is going

:55:28. > :55:34.to be negotiated. We don't know what it is going to look like and what we

:55:35. > :55:39.are going to vote on. It is not clearly outlined. There is no plan

:55:40. > :55:42.because nobody knows. If you ask David Cameron, will he say yes or

:55:43. > :55:48.no? You doesn't know because he doesn't know what he is going to

:55:49. > :55:53.come out with. It's nonsense. He doesn't want to stay in the

:55:54. > :55:58.casino... We have a referendum in 1975. The campaign started, they

:55:59. > :56:06.were two to one against. After four weeks of campaigning, the public

:56:07. > :56:09.voted in favour of staying in. For four weeks we will have all the

:56:10. > :56:12.facts put forward. I'm very confident that the public will vote

:56:13. > :56:19.yes to stay in. We will have to leave it there. That's it from

:56:20. > :56:22.Brussels. Next, we will be slumming it

:56:23. > :56:23.decision, she will weigh up the factors. Andrew, back

:56:24. > :56:39.The big news is the popular server is struggling to control all of the

:56:40. > :56:44.people who want to find out where they fit in the political spectrum.

:56:45. > :56:49.It hasn't quite crashed but it is queueing up those people. Who would

:56:50. > :56:59.have thought the Sunday Politics had so many viewers? It has never

:57:00. > :57:01.happened on the X factor. This morning's papers don't make

:57:02. > :57:04.comfortable reading for Labour with two separate polls showing the

:57:05. > :57:07.party's lead over the Tories is down to just one point. And there's been

:57:08. > :57:11.plenty of criticism of Ed Miliband's response to the Budget. Let's take a

:57:12. > :57:14.look. You know you are in trouble when even the Education Secretary

:57:15. > :57:26.calls you and out of touch bunch of elitist. Where is he? He is hiding!

:57:27. > :57:33.I think he has been consigned to the naughty step by the Prime Minister.

:57:34. > :57:38.The naughty step! And we're joined now by shadow chief secretary to the

:57:39. > :57:42.Treasury, Chris Leslie. There was a widely criticised response by Ed

:57:43. > :57:48.Balls to the Autumn Statement, now a widely criticised response by Ed

:57:49. > :57:54.Miliband to the Budget. Does this show you are struggling at the

:57:55. > :57:59.moment? Of course Ed Balls and Ed Miliband don't want to hear the fact

:58:00. > :58:03.that in reality, for most people, life is getting harder and there is

:58:04. > :58:13.the cost of living crisis. Did we get any mention of that in the

:58:14. > :58:17.Budget? Of course we didn't. We were waiting for action on the cost of

:58:18. > :58:22.living and it wasn't forthcoming. Ed Miliband came up with the tactic of

:58:23. > :58:27.responding to the Budget without mentioning anything that was in it.

:58:28. > :58:31.He mentioned the fact the personal tax allowance was a bit of a

:58:32. > :58:38.giveaway but he takes more with the other hand. He is in favour of that,

:58:39. > :58:42.right? Anything we can get but we need a lot more. Let me tell you

:58:43. > :58:51.something else he mentioned, the fact the national debt has risen by

:58:52. > :58:54.a third and George Osborne and David Cameron... They knew that before the

:58:55. > :59:00.Budget. The borrowing figures were announced and Ed Miliband made

:59:01. > :59:05.reference to those. There is not a lot of happiness on Labour

:59:06. > :59:10.backbenchers about this, is there? And indeed not a lot of happiness in

:59:11. > :59:15.the shadow cabinet. There is concern that Ed Miliband is on a journey to

:59:16. > :59:19.remodel world capitalism whilst George Osborne is firing some love

:59:20. > :59:23.bombs at Middle England by talking about freeing up the pensions market

:59:24. > :59:28.and there is real nerves that what Ed Miliband is saying is not going

:59:29. > :59:34.to be in tune with those middle income earners that the Labour Party

:59:35. > :59:41.has got to attract if they are going to win the general election. When

:59:42. > :59:45.Rachel Reeves used the medium of Radio 4 to announce you were broadly

:59:46. > :59:49.in favour of the pension reforms announced by the Chancellor on

:59:50. > :59:59.Friday night, was that a result of a decision taken by the shadow

:00:00. > :00:06.cabinet? Is With annuities, they are a very old-fashioned product. There

:00:07. > :00:13.are some serious questions which need to be addressed. Was that the

:00:14. > :00:17.result of a Shadow Cabinet decision? We have not had a Shadow

:00:18. > :00:22.Cabinet since the budget. We all want to make sure that we understand

:00:23. > :00:27.the point about flexibility. No one is arguing with that. There are some

:00:28. > :00:30.serious concerns. Let me give you a couple of examples. This is

:00:31. > :00:35.something the Chancellor has done, he claims, for reasons of freedom

:00:36. > :00:39.and flexibility. Is it a coincidence he is grabbing quite a lot of tax

:00:40. > :00:47.from pensioners early on to plug a hole which is necessary because the

:00:48. > :00:53.deficit has not gone down? Forgive me for being slightly cynical about

:00:54. > :00:58.motives. For or against it? We need to have safeguards for protection of

:00:59. > :01:01.pensioners. What will it do for the annuity market if most people still

:01:02. > :01:09.want to have a steadying come for a third of their lives? -- steady

:01:10. > :01:18.income. What does Labour have to do to get it show back on the road? The

:01:19. > :01:22.question is, how do people feel? How many people will still not be

:01:23. > :01:25.feeling better by the next election? Wages may be rising slightly but not

:01:26. > :01:31.for a large and significant number of people. They were just looking at

:01:32. > :01:34.the YouGov poll. If you look at the middle to low earners, they are

:01:35. > :01:39.overwhelmingly pro-labour. Can Labour get those people out to vote?

:01:40. > :01:43.They are really hurting. There are plenty of them. The question is

:01:44. > :01:48.whether people are optimistic because they see figures as if they

:01:49. > :01:53.look as if they are on the up or whether they vote according to how

:01:54. > :01:58.they feel, which will still be very far behind. Cost of living has been

:01:59. > :02:03.a major mantra from Labour. That's that this chart shows how things are

:02:04. > :02:09.beginning to change. What this shows is that, sometime this year, after a

:02:10. > :02:13.long time at which average earnings trailed inflation, they now overtake

:02:14. > :02:20.it in the run-up to the election and they stay there for the forecast

:02:21. > :02:26.period. What do you now do if your cost of living mantra is running out

:02:27. > :02:30.of steam? I am not sure that, for most people, they will recognise the

:02:31. > :02:33.sense that suddenly things will be getting better. Particularly the

:02:34. > :02:39.younger generation are really feeling quite down about the

:02:40. > :02:46.pressures they are facing to make ends meet. You can see the lines are

:02:47. > :02:51.exaggerated because the Y axis on the side starts quite high up. It

:02:52. > :02:55.does not start at zero. The other statistic from the OBR is that we

:02:56. > :02:59.will not be getting back to the point where wages are exceeding

:03:00. > :03:07.prices from the pre-banking crisis period until late 2017. There are

:03:08. > :03:11.some really serious pressures that people are under. What they wanted

:03:12. > :03:16.was a budget that would address concerns and, for the vast majority

:03:17. > :03:22.of people, they will have heard the statement by George Osborne and

:03:23. > :03:30.think, how is it really help them now? It did not address it. It is

:03:31. > :03:35.clear that by 2015, average living standards will probably not have

:03:36. > :03:39.returned to where they were in 2010. Average wages will not have

:03:40. > :03:43.done that. On the other hand, the chart shows the sense of direction

:03:44. > :03:49.is moving in the right way. Which one matters more with the

:03:50. > :03:52.electorate? I suspect it is sense of direction. People sense of

:03:53. > :03:57.prosperity does not need to be buoyant. It has to be something

:03:58. > :04:03.worth preserving. We have to fear the all turn. That is what intrigued

:04:04. > :04:07.me this week. People make too much of a fuss about the Parliamentary

:04:08. > :04:12.response by Ed Miliband. People will forgive a bad day at the dispatch

:04:13. > :04:19.box. What they will not forgive is the absence of a macro economic

:04:20. > :04:24.mess. Labour have a very powerful message on living standards and lots

:04:25. > :04:30.of popular, targeted interventions like the energy price freeze. You

:04:31. > :04:35.can imagine they will be sufficiently nervous about that next

:04:36. > :04:43.year. If living standards are not back to where they were, Labour can

:04:44. > :04:51.say, are you better off now than when you were four years ago? The

:04:52. > :05:03.reason why break and -- wallowed waken one that is because Jimmy

:05:04. > :05:11.Carter mucked it up -- Ronald Reagan. Labour have to say, vote for

:05:12. > :05:15.us and you will get 2 million homes. At the moment, the offer is very

:05:16. > :05:19.modest. You need to find the money to do that. People need to

:05:20. > :05:23.understand that housing is at the very heart of the economy, as well

:05:24. > :05:30.as young people and their aspirations. At the moment, Labour

:05:31. > :05:33.'s offer is not spectacular in. If the focus group shows the cost of

:05:34. > :05:39.living crisis have no longer has the attraction it did, what line do you

:05:40. > :05:42.move onto? Yellow McCoy must remind people of the wasted years and the

:05:43. > :05:49.cost of living pressures they have been under. -- we must remind

:05:50. > :05:58.people. We want a recovery which has low growth, low wage. A race to the

:05:59. > :06:04.bottom. They want a recovery that is felt by everyone, shared and felt by

:06:05. > :06:09.all. Now, here's an idea to twist your melon. Mark Berry, better known

:06:10. > :06:11.as Bez, it says here he's a member of something called The Happy

:06:12. > :06:15.Mondays, wants to stand for parliament. He's best known for

:06:16. > :06:20.being in a band, and not doing very much, so he might fit in. Here he is

:06:21. > :06:48.in action. And Bez joins us from our Salford

:06:49. > :06:56.studio. Good to see you. Is this a genuine candidacy or are you

:06:57. > :07:05.twisting my melon? Amazing how time flies when you're having fun! You

:07:06. > :07:09.having fun doing this candidacy? I am doing the job of the politicians

:07:10. > :07:15.and standing up for the people and bringing attention to the horror of

:07:16. > :07:19.fracking, which is a totally unsafe technology. There is no one in

:07:20. > :07:24.mainstream politics who is discussing or saying anything about

:07:25. > :07:29.it. It is an unsafe technology and it has been proven in America. You

:07:30. > :07:39.see the process in America and the people out on the streets. The whole

:07:40. > :07:44.atmosphere has been made toxic. These people are allowing it to

:07:45. > :07:50.happen in the name of profit. This has been a Labour seat you are

:07:51. > :07:55.fighting in Salford since 1945. It is a tough mountain. Supposing you

:07:56. > :08:02.were to win, could you ever see yourself entering a coalition? With

:08:03. > :08:05.a bit of luck I may be able to shame Labour politicians to do the job

:08:06. > :08:09.properly and stand up for the rights of people. They are not and I am

:08:10. > :08:15.having to do that job. All I am doing is causing debate and bringing

:08:16. > :08:19.to attention the horror that is hanging on our doorsteps. It is not

:08:20. > :08:24.only fracking but GM modified foods that they want to bring into this

:08:25. > :08:32.country as well. Owen Paterson is one of the main lobbyists. Lobbying

:08:33. > :08:38.is legalised bribery, by the way. It is run by the bankers. Basically, we

:08:39. > :08:42.have to stop these monsters from getting into our country and turning

:08:43. > :08:48.our land into a toxic waste. That is what I am trying to say. You are

:08:49. > :08:54.raising the debate, as you are doing with us here. We do not really need

:08:55. > :08:59.fracking. You have done that and you have talked about other things as

:09:00. > :09:06.well. In terms of a new integrity, if you were to become an MP, would

:09:07. > :09:10.you claim expenses? If I ever do get in charge, I would completely enter

:09:11. > :09:15.the banking system and there would be expensive, but they would be like

:09:16. > :09:19.bus passes and train passes. You behave like the people and you are

:09:20. > :09:24.in touch with the people, you move with the people and do understand

:09:25. > :09:28.what the people want. You do not live in acre Kuhn of your own making

:09:29. > :09:36.of luxury, wealth and total disregard of everyone else. -- a

:09:37. > :09:39.cocoon. If you did get into the Palace of Westminster and had to

:09:40. > :09:45.mingle with all these people, who would you rather have in night out

:09:46. > :09:54.with - Mr Cameron, Mr Miller band or Mr Clegg? I would be willing to

:09:55. > :10:02.discuss politics with anybody. I would make them realise what they

:10:03. > :10:09.are doing. I am glad too have a debate and with anyone. The people

:10:10. > :10:15.of Salford, quite a lot people people behind me. I have been

:10:16. > :10:23.speaking to Salford councillors. They are going to lend me their

:10:24. > :10:29.support. The people of Salford, and not to forget the people of Eccles,

:10:30. > :10:34.sending you much. We must stop this horror. There is a monster on our

:10:35. > :10:40.doorstep and we must stop it, people. Do not forget to take your

:10:41. > :10:48.maracas on campaign trail. Would you like a pair to shake yourself? You

:10:49. > :10:54.shake your maracas against fracking! Thanks, Bez, goodbye. Thank you for

:10:55. > :11:01.giving me a little platform to express my views. Now if there's one

:11:02. > :11:03.thing that gets us hot under the collar here at the Sunday Politics

:11:04. > :11:06.it's European elections. The only thing we like more than the

:11:07. > :11:11.elections themselves is a TV debate about them. And we're in luck! Take

:11:12. > :11:14.a look at this. Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome leader of

:11:15. > :11:22.the Liberal Democrats and Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg. Gives

:11:23. > :11:30.the most fantastic welcome to Nigel Farage. I would challenge Nigel

:11:31. > :11:37.Farage to a public, open debate, about whether she we should be out

:11:38. > :11:48.all in of the European Union. I will do it for Nick Clegg. Since 2009, I

:11:49. > :11:55.have taken part in 45% of votes in the European Parliament. Nigel

:11:56. > :12:03.Farage has not tabled a single amendment since July 2009. Mr Clegg

:12:04. > :12:10.has only taken part in 22% of votes in the House of commons. You can

:12:11. > :12:22.watch the debate at 7pm on the 2nd of April over on BBC Two. And for a

:12:23. > :12:25.chance to be part of the studio audience on the night and put your

:12:26. > :12:28.question to the two party leaders, e-mail the question you'd like to

:12:29. > :12:30.ask to europedebate@bbc.co.uk or tweet it using the hashtag

:12:31. > :12:34.#europedebate. And Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage will be limbering up

:12:35. > :12:42.this week with their first debate on LBC radio on Wednesday. Who is going

:12:43. > :12:48.to come out the best? I suspect Nigel Farage. It is easy to portray

:12:49. > :12:52.Nick Clegg as morally compromised, who has not asserted himself in

:12:53. > :12:57.government. I do wonder about Nigel Farage, whether he is much better at

:12:58. > :13:02.delivering a popular line and responding to the second question of

:13:03. > :13:06.third question. Nick Clegg will win it hands over fist because he knows

:13:07. > :13:10.this stuff. He is right. The evidence that he can produce about

:13:11. > :13:18.what will happen if we pulled out of Europe will, I think, overwhelm

:13:19. > :13:25.Nigel Farage 's one-liners. They will both be winners because you

:13:26. > :13:29.will have the rare sight of the pro-European saying he likes the

:13:30. > :13:35.European Union. That is unlike Eurosceptics who tie themselves up

:13:36. > :13:48.in knots. 14 Nigel, one for Nick and one for both. There you go. Here is

:13:49. > :13:52.a mess, it is Janen Ganesh. That's all for today. The Daily Politics is

:13:53. > :13:55.on BBC Two at Lunchtime every day this week, I'll be back here next

:13:56. > :13:57.week with Energy Secretary Ed Davey. Remember if it's Sunday, it's the

:13:58. > :14:03.Sunday Politics.