:00:00. > :00:00.debate what it means for London. And with me, as always, the best and
:00:00. > :00:08.the brightest political panel in the business - Nick Watt, Helen Lewis
:00:09. > :00:13.and Janan Ganesh. They'll be throwing metaphorical rotten eggs
:00:14. > :00:16.into the twittersphere. First this morning - Gerry Adams,
:00:17. > :00:20.President of Sinn Fein, has spent a fourth night in police custody after
:00:21. > :00:33.he was arrested in connection with the killing of Jean McConville more
:00:34. > :00:35.than 40 years ago. Sinn Fein has claimed that the arrest is
:00:36. > :00:39.politically motivated coming, as it does, during local and European
:00:40. > :00:41.election campaigns. Northern Ireland's deputy first minister,
:00:42. > :00:44.Martin McGuinness, has indicated he might review the party's support for
:00:45. > :00:47.policing in the province if Gerry Adams is charged. The Jean
:00:48. > :00:48.McConville murder was one of the most notorious cases of the
:00:49. > :00:54.Troubles. The widowed mother of ten was
:00:55. > :01:00.kidnapped from her home in December 1972, never to be seen alive again.
:01:01. > :01:06.The IRA denied involvement but in 1999 admitted it had murdered her
:01:07. > :01:11.and several others, known as the Disappeared. Before his death, the
:01:12. > :01:13.former IRA commander Brendan Hughes pointed the finger at Gerry Adams,
:01:14. > :01:27.claiming: In April this year, either Bell was
:01:28. > :01:37.charged with aiding and abetting the murder. -- Ivor Bell. Gerry Adams
:01:38. > :01:42.has always insisted he is innocent of any part in the abduction and
:01:43. > :01:45.killing all burial of Mrs McConville.
:01:46. > :01:48.We were hoping to speak to the Northern Ireland Secretary, Theresa
:01:49. > :01:52.Villiers, but having agreed to do an interview with us this morning, she
:01:53. > :01:59.pulled out. But we are joined from Belfast by Sinn Fein's Alex Maskey.
:02:00. > :02:12.Welcome to the Sunday Politics. And the police just doing their job by
:02:13. > :02:16.questioning Gerry Adams? Gerry Adams said publicly some time ago that he
:02:17. > :02:21.was available to speak to the police, but that is not what this is
:02:22. > :02:25.about at the moment, because what we have here is clearly evidence in our
:02:26. > :02:30.mind of political interference in what should be due process. Gerry
:02:31. > :02:35.Adams made it clear some time ago he wanted to speak to the police, it
:02:36. > :02:40.was available at any time, and yet that request was not taken up until
:02:41. > :02:44.three weeks into an election and we believe that was deliberately
:02:45. > :02:49.orchestrated by a small number of people. What evidence can you
:02:50. > :02:57.present this morning that proves that claim? The direct circumstances
:02:58. > :03:04.Gerry Adams finds himself in at the moment, take that in stark contrast
:03:05. > :03:18.when they have dealt with members of the British Army for instance...
:03:19. > :03:23.That is just circumstantial. The PSNI know that the soldiers involved
:03:24. > :03:27.in that and a number of other high-profile killings of citizens
:03:28. > :03:34.here, and not one of those people has been arrested. In fact any of
:03:35. > :03:40.the people who were interviewed were interviewed by request. There was a
:03:41. > :03:48.stark contrast, in terms of how they have dealt with the British military
:03:49. > :03:54.involving state killings. We haven't got too much time. Sinn Fein said it
:03:55. > :03:59.would review its support for the PSNI if Gerry Adams is charged. That
:04:00. > :04:03.sounds like political interference in the police process. It's not
:04:04. > :04:09.because we have a clear mandate from the people who elect us. Policing
:04:10. > :04:17.has been an important part of the peace process here for many years,
:04:18. > :04:21.Sinn Fein plays an important role in local policing partnerships. We
:04:22. > :04:26.negotiate to make sure we have powers transferred here to elected
:04:27. > :04:33.representatives in the north. It is a long way to go before we have
:04:34. > :04:46.policing highly accountable, and making sure they deliver a very
:04:47. > :04:54.impartial service. How will he react if Gerry Adams is charged? I am
:04:55. > :05:00.still trying to get a clear answer. If Gerry Adams is charged, will you
:05:01. > :05:06.withdraw support for the Northern Ireland police service? We view this
:05:07. > :05:12.as a serious situation and a serious ongoing situation and we will
:05:13. > :05:16.monitor how this pans out. We have a very important role to play to
:05:17. > :05:24.support the police service here. We have done consistently, worked with
:05:25. > :05:27.them on a daily basis, but we will not accept political interference by
:05:28. > :05:34.a small number of people in the police who are undermining the
:05:35. > :05:40.police. We will not accept political policing. If there was evidence, and
:05:41. > :05:44.I emphasise the word if, because we have seen none, but if there were
:05:45. > :05:50.evidence to justify Gerry Adams being charged, why should he not be
:05:51. > :05:54.charged? It is my understanding from the family of Gerry Adams that there
:05:55. > :06:04.has not been a single shred of evidence put forward. I understand
:06:05. > :06:09.that, but if there was evidence, why should he not be charged? You put
:06:10. > :06:14.that caveat yourself and then you expect me to speculate, there is no
:06:15. > :06:17.way I will do that. The fact of the matter is there hasn't been one
:06:18. > :06:24.single shred of evidence put to Gerry Adams in the last few days, in
:06:25. > :06:26.fact what has been put to him is a range of issues of newspaper
:06:27. > :06:32.cuttings, books, statements made from people, including from people
:06:33. > :06:43.who didn't want their statements released until they have died.
:06:44. > :06:43.who didn't want their statements was charged, again I emphasise the
:06:44. > :06:54.word if, does the police process fall apart? The police process is a
:06:55. > :06:56.fragile entity, it requires work and we have been saying this publicly
:06:57. > :07:11.and privately with the Irish and British
:07:12. > :07:11.and privately with the Irish and process has to be nurtured and
:07:12. > :07:16.developed. We are not out of the woods yet. From a Republican point
:07:17. > :07:25.of view we have been working flat out. I just wanted a quick answer to
:07:26. > :07:30.my question, is a yes or no? What question I asking me? Is the peace
:07:31. > :07:35.process in jeopardy? It is fragile and I am not going to have words put
:07:36. > :07:42.into my mouth but I don't want to use. It has to be worked out and
:07:43. > :07:46.nurtured. Thank you for joining us. Nick Watt, you were a Northern
:07:47. > :07:53.Ireland correspondent like myself in days gone by. Where is this going to
:07:54. > :07:57.go? It shows how challenging the peace process is because on the one
:07:58. > :08:02.hand you have the unspeakable pain of the McConville family, but you
:08:03. > :08:06.also have the danger of not having mechanisms to deal with the past.
:08:07. > :08:10.South Africa is a good example, you have to have some mechanism to deal
:08:11. > :08:20.with the past because if you don't, you are going to have, as Sinn Fein
:08:21. > :08:26.have now, someone in a police cell but you don't have the arrests of
:08:27. > :08:33.the Bloody Sunday soldiers. Paramilitary prisoners were released
:08:34. > :08:39.after two years... We have seen no action against somebody accused of
:08:40. > :08:43.the Hyde Park bombings, it is not a one-way street. We have the
:08:44. > :08:51.decommissioning of IRA weapons by the IRA, therefore destroying
:08:52. > :08:54.crucial evidence. You have these inconsistencies because you don't
:08:55. > :08:59.have an mechanism for dealing with the past, but doing that is really
:09:00. > :09:04.difficult because of the pain of real people. Don't you get a feeling
:09:05. > :09:09.that here in London they are hoping he will not be charged? Definitely
:09:10. > :09:12.because it would be nice if everything went away, but the civil
:09:13. > :09:20.case of the family is taken out of the hands of the police. You can see
:09:21. > :09:27.here a real failure in Westminster to see this as anything other than
:09:28. > :09:32.settled. David Cameron we know sees himself as a chairman. I was
:09:33. > :09:37.speaking to a friend in Northern Ireland who said he has never met
:09:38. > :09:42.Gerry Adams and I think this is very revealing. They consider this as a
:09:43. > :09:47.settled issue that will not trouble Westminster again. It would be, but
:09:48. > :09:52.the relatives of the disappeared don't want it to be settled. This
:09:53. > :09:57.points to the reality that the Belfast agreement probably had to be
:09:58. > :10:02.done, but the moral price at which it was purchased was far greater
:10:03. > :10:06.than we were willing to admit during the euphoria. For a country that
:10:07. > :10:14.prides itself by the rule of law to tolerate the early release of
:10:15. > :10:19.prisoners and former pal and military -- paramilitaries, I think
:10:20. > :10:25.was a very serious matter. As for the PSNI, it only exists because its
:10:26. > :10:32.predecessor failed to command the confidence of the nationalist
:10:33. > :10:39.community. It is a very big deal if even the PSNI ends up falling into
:10:40. > :10:47.the same trap. We have to is leave it there I'm afraid. It was the
:10:48. > :10:50.Conservative's local election campaign launch on Friday, and what
:10:51. > :10:53.did David Cameron focus on? Burning local issues like the state of our
:10:54. > :10:56.roads, rubbish collection or care of the elderly? No. It was Europe. The
:10:57. > :11:00.Prime Minister re-iterated again his promise of an in-out referendum on
:11:01. > :11:03.our membership of the EU in 2017. And it's being reported this morning
:11:04. > :11:07.that he will share a platform with Nigel Farage in a pre-general
:11:08. > :11:11.election debate. Here's what the UKIP leader had to say about the
:11:12. > :11:19.issue when he was on the Marr Show this morning with Ed Miliband. David
:11:20. > :11:24.Cameron very often makes these vague promises, then doesn't deliver
:11:25. > :11:30.afterwards. I don't think he has any intention of allowing me into any of
:11:31. > :11:37.these debates. Perhaps Ed Miliband wants to debate? We have got to have
:11:38. > :11:41.the TV debates as we did join the last general election. I think David
:11:42. > :11:46.Cameron is doing everything he can to wriggle out of them. It is up to
:11:47. > :11:55.the broadcasters but whether they invite Nigel. My main desire is that
:11:56. > :12:04.the debates go ahead. We are joined now by Grant Shapps. Will he be
:12:05. > :12:08.included? The debates were not without problems, they took place
:12:09. > :12:13.during the campaign period and disrupted the flow of the campaign,
:12:14. > :12:18.taking it out of the regions, people getting to speak to the leaders so a
:12:19. > :12:23.longer period for that would be helpful. I think they are good idea
:12:24. > :12:28.and they should go ahead, but all of the negotiation about who is
:12:29. > :12:34.involved is yet to happen. So it is not a done deal that Nigel Farage
:12:35. > :12:39.will be included? That needs to be negotiated with the TV companies.
:12:40. > :12:46.The Conservatives believe we should have debates, but exactly the format
:12:47. > :12:53.and the timing, all of the -- that will be debated in the autumn, but
:12:54. > :13:00.first we have European elections, the Queen 's speech and a Scottish
:13:01. > :13:04.referendum. The local election campaign was launched on Friday. Why
:13:05. > :13:14.did you talk more about Europe than local councils? Both are important.
:13:15. > :13:18.The local elections are critically important for people, their local
:13:19. > :13:24.services. It is easy to forget, for example, that the council tax has
:13:25. > :13:29.been largely frozen since this Government came to power, a big
:13:30. > :13:35.contrast to Dublin under the previous Labour government. So why
:13:36. > :13:44.did you go on and on about Europe? Let me show you the poster used to
:13:45. > :13:48.launch your local election campaign. There it is, and in-out referendum
:13:49. > :13:53.on Europe, the day of the local elections, where is the word local?
:13:54. > :13:58.Is it in small print? I hear what you're saying, I am happy to be here
:13:59. > :14:02.to talk about the local elections. But you are right, they are on the
:14:03. > :14:07.same day, and not many people know that only by voting conservative can
:14:08. > :14:13.you get an in-out referendum. -- Conservative. UKIP cannot deliver,
:14:14. > :14:18.we can, it is the same date, so people... This was the launch of the
:14:19. > :14:22.local election campaign. Why does the Prime Minister have to keep on
:14:23. > :14:29.promising something he has already promised? The actual referendum
:14:30. > :14:33.would be in 2017. He promised it before, he keeps repeating it
:14:34. > :14:38.because he knows people don't really trust him. I think it is a question
:14:39. > :14:43.of the fact that, actually, unless you remind people that the pledges
:14:44. > :14:47.there, that the only way to get an in-out referendum is to vote for
:14:48. > :14:52.it, this is a critical moment at which we need people to vote for
:14:53. > :14:57.that referendum if they want it. It is not the case, as I saw this
:14:58. > :15:01.morning, being said by Nigel Farage, that a referendum was promised
:15:02. > :15:05.before and not delivered. There was no referendum in the last manifesto.
:15:06. > :15:14.There will be in the next one. There was a cast-iron guarantee, in the
:15:15. > :15:22.Sun in 2006. Let's just clear that up... Once the Lisbon Treaty... In
:15:23. > :15:26.the Sun article, he said, we will have a referendum on the Lisbon
:15:27. > :15:30.Treaty. Clearly, because that treaty had been passed before the general
:15:31. > :15:36.election, it is difficult to have a referendum on something in the past.
:15:37. > :15:42.We joined Europe in the 1970s, having a referendum on that! Look,
:15:43. > :15:45.that is about the future. Our relationship with Europe is
:15:46. > :15:50.absolutely critical. Most people in this country feel, I was not old
:15:51. > :15:56.enough to vote in that referendum, most of those who voted, they voted
:15:57. > :15:59.for a Common Market, that is not what we have got. We want to
:16:00. > :16:07.continue the work we have been doing in the EU Budget, what did UKIP do?
:16:08. > :16:11.They voted against it. We want more of those powers brought home, and we
:16:12. > :16:15.will put it to a referendum, and people will have to vote
:16:16. > :16:19.Conservative to get it. We have been looking at new research, almost two
:16:20. > :16:24.thirds of Conservative members are considering voting for UKIP, almost
:16:25. > :16:34.two thirds. I have a simple message here, which is this. If you vote for
:16:35. > :16:41.UKIP... Can we have it up? 30% are likely, 30% are possible. That is
:16:42. > :16:45.why it is important we are making these arguments. If you vote for
:16:46. > :16:49.UKIP, you are voting to take us further away from returning powers
:16:50. > :16:53.to this country, further from a referendum. It is support for Ed
:16:54. > :16:58.Miliband becoming Prime Minister, and he will do exactly what Labour
:16:59. > :17:03.have always done - hand away powers, and away the rebate for nothing in
:17:04. > :17:07.return, giving Europe even more so over the day-to-day affairs in
:17:08. > :17:11.Britain. Why are so many people considering voting UKIP? It is to
:17:12. > :17:15.hold your feet to the fire, they do not trust you on a referendum, so
:17:16. > :17:22.they will vote UKIP to force you to tap in your line. We have a very
:17:23. > :17:26.tough line. If I had said four years ago that this government would
:17:27. > :17:30.manage to cut the overall EU budget, would take us out of the
:17:31. > :17:34.bailout fund that Labour got us into, passing a law that no more
:17:35. > :17:38.powers can go to Europe without a referendum, if I had said that,
:17:39. > :17:42.people would say, I do not believe it will happen. Not only have we
:17:43. > :17:46.done these things, we are promising and in-out referendum, and the only
:17:47. > :17:50.way to get it is to vote Conservative. Nigel Farage has
:17:51. > :17:54.said, we can't change anything in Europe, and it is no wonder that the
:17:55. > :17:58.president of the European Commission has said, we love having these UKIP
:17:59. > :18:05.MEPs, because they don't turn up and vote, apart from when they vote
:18:06. > :18:09.against the cut in the budget. It goes beyond UKIP in your party,
:18:10. > :18:14.because this research also showed that those Conservative members most
:18:15. > :18:19.likely to vote for UKIP, they said they do not feel valued or respected
:18:20. > :18:22.by their own leadership, and they regard David Cameron as ideological
:18:23. > :18:29.eat more remote from them than UKIP. What I would say is look at that
:18:30. > :18:38.list... Let me take that step further. What people need our series
:18:39. > :18:47.solutions to serious problems. When people vote for a UKIP MEP, I will
:18:48. > :18:51.say, which one of the 40% of the MEPs who got in for UKIP last time
:18:52. > :18:57.are you voting for, the ones above left or defected, the ones have gone
:18:58. > :19:00.to jail? 40% have ended up not delivering. People have a right to
:19:01. > :19:05.know what to expect when they vote in these elections. They can look at
:19:06. > :19:09.our record at home, and this goes to the point you have raised about what
:19:10. > :19:15.we have done in Britain to get this economy back on track, recover from
:19:16. > :19:23.Labour's recession. We are prepared to take those decisions in Europe as
:19:24. > :19:25.well. Presumably, active Conservative members, they know
:19:26. > :19:31.that, so why do they not feel valued by the leadership? I spend time
:19:32. > :19:37.going up and down the country meeting Conservative members, and
:19:38. > :19:40.they are on the doorstep, last weekend 150 out in Enfield
:19:41. > :19:48.campaigning for the European and local elections... Why are they keen
:19:49. > :19:54.on UKIP? When I meet somebody who says that, not necessarily a
:19:55. > :20:04.member... Have you met members of say they will vote UKIP? No, but a
:20:05. > :20:09.vote for UKIP is... Do not do it, you will end up with Labour having
:20:10. > :20:14.more control, handing away powers to Europe. 51-year-old meeting members
:20:15. > :20:20.who say they will vote UKIP, you must be out of touch. -- if you are
:20:21. > :20:24.not meeting members. Some of your members are thinking of voting UKIP.
:20:25. > :20:29.I spend huge amount of time travelling around, I just told you
:20:30. > :20:35.about this action day in Enfield, where we had an enormous turnout.
:20:36. > :20:38.Those members were on the doorsteps pointing out that you can only get
:20:39. > :20:45.reform in Europe by voting Conservative. Labour and the Lib
:20:46. > :20:50.Dems will not deliver, UKIP can't, Conservatives will. You have not got
:20:51. > :20:57.that message across, because a YouGov poll shows, on Europe, who
:20:58. > :21:03.has the best policies? Tories 18%, Labour 19%, UKIP 27%. On the
:21:04. > :21:08.economy, Tories 27%, Labour 23, UKIP 4. Why don't you shut up about
:21:09. > :21:15.Europe and talk about the economy? Look, on the 27th of May, we have
:21:16. > :21:18.European elections, as well as local elections. If I don't talk about the
:21:19. > :21:21.European elections, you would say what you said at the beginning about
:21:22. > :21:25.not talking about the local elections! These are serious
:21:26. > :21:30.elections, and the point I am tried to make is that the issues at stake
:21:31. > :21:35.are not peripheral, they are not unimportant. Our MEPs have been
:21:36. > :21:37.battling to cut red tape from a European level on small businesses,
:21:38. > :21:40.the same thing this government has been doing for small businesses
:21:41. > :21:47.domestic league, where for example every small business owner watching
:21:48. > :21:49.this show knows they have got ?2000 back in employment announced on
:21:50. > :21:53.national insurance contributions. We are doing it at home, we are doing
:21:54. > :21:58.it in Europe, and it is important to tie that together. Ireland that Mr
:21:59. > :22:14.Cameron saying, you should stop banging on about Europe... -- I
:22:15. > :22:23.remember. This is before the last general election, as in days for the
:22:24. > :22:27.Lib Dems, 18%. Even then, you didn't win the election, and now you are
:22:28. > :22:33.only three or four points ahead, it doesn't look good for you, does it?
:22:34. > :22:39.Even then, the poll did not turn out to be what it was on the day. No,
:22:40. > :22:42.that is what happens, that is the voting intentions now! You are in a
:22:43. > :22:48.worse position than a year before the last election, which you didn't
:22:49. > :22:53.win. We are almost proving the point that you can take a clip at any
:22:54. > :22:57.moment in time, not sounding like a politician, but the only poll that
:22:58. > :23:02.matters is on the day. In just over a year's time, people will have a
:23:03. > :23:07.completely different picture to look at than these opinion polls. We have
:23:08. > :23:12.an economy from being a basket case, the great Labour recession
:23:13. > :23:16.knocking 7% of this economy, hurting every family, to a point where we
:23:17. > :23:22.the fastest-growing economy in the developed world. In a year's time, I
:23:23. > :23:25.hope people will see that we are the people who've taken the difficult
:23:26. > :23:29.decisions, got the economy to the right place, more security for you
:23:30. > :23:34.and your family. Do not give the car keys back to the people who crashed
:23:35. > :23:38.it in the first place. If I had a pound for every time I have heard
:23:39. > :23:44.that! It is clearly not getting through. On the Pfizer attempted of
:23:45. > :23:50.AstraZeneca, Mr Miliband called this morning for a tougher public
:23:51. > :23:54.interest test such big takeovers. Do you agree with that or not? Let me
:23:55. > :24:01.be absolutely clear, if there is any kind of joining, we are in favour of
:24:02. > :24:11.British jobs, British aren't deep, expanding our pharmaceutical sector.
:24:12. > :24:22.-- R But what Mr Mallon and wants to do with rent caps, he is
:24:23. > :24:31.anti-business. -- Mr Miliband. He wants to take us back to the bad old
:24:32. > :24:38.those. -- bad old days. Should there be a bigger public interest test? We
:24:39. > :24:43.have seen some takeovers that people have criticised, but others, like
:24:44. > :24:49.Bentley, Land Rover, which have been very successful. Should there be a
:24:50. > :24:52.tougher test?! We will have tests that ensured this get-together
:24:53. > :24:57.becomes a great Anglo-American project, or it doesn't happen, but
:24:58. > :25:02.the Miliband approach is simply to be anti-business, anti-jobs and
:25:03. > :25:05.anti-job security. Grant Shapps, thank you.
:25:06. > :25:09.A challenging week for the Liberal Democrats with a local election
:25:10. > :25:14.campaign overshadowed by another row with the Conservatives about knife
:25:15. > :25:19.crime. Adam has spent the day with Nick Clegg on the campaign trail.
:25:20. > :25:23.How nice! Nick Clegg is taking me on a political mini break to the
:25:24. > :25:28.Cotswolds. Yes, we are getting the train. He wants to highlight what
:25:29. > :25:33.his party is doing in local government, and a personal passion
:25:34. > :25:37.of his in Europe. Graham Watson, the Lib Dem MEP for the south-west, has
:25:38. > :25:42.been running a campaign to have prunes recognised as a laxative. Is
:25:43. > :25:47.that Lib Dems battling for Britain in Europe? It is not our front page
:25:48. > :25:52.manifesto commitment! It is one of many things that Graham does, he
:25:53. > :25:59.does many other things. In fact, he is a good example of an MEP who took
:26:00. > :26:03.a pioneering role, for instance, in making sure... There is the proven
:26:04. > :26:10.world, but also the crime-fighting role. -- prune. He has done work to
:26:11. > :26:15.make sure that when British criminals flee justice, we can bring
:26:16. > :26:20.them back. And he has promoted prunes! First stop, a gorgeous
:26:21. > :26:25.country pub, but it turns out everyone is a journalist or a very
:26:26. > :26:30.on message activist. Dark days, being a Lib Dem in the last few
:26:31. > :26:34.years? Strangely not. If you find you are a Lib Dem deep down, you do
:26:35. > :26:38.not get that disheartened, because you know that, locally, you are
:26:39. > :26:43.doing so well for the people that you live next door to that,
:26:44. > :26:48.actually, I find I am almost impervious to what happens on a
:26:49. > :26:53.national level. I am mayor of Cirencester. Have you taken any
:26:54. > :26:58.leadership lessons from Nick Clegg, inspiring new in your leadership of
:26:59. > :27:01.Cirencester? I think what he has demonstrated his patience. It has
:27:02. > :27:05.been a tough time, he has taken a lot of flak, and as the mayor of a
:27:06. > :27:11.town, lots of people agree with you and a fair few don't. You are a full
:27:12. > :27:16.on mayor, he is just a Deputy Prime Minister, do you outrank him? I
:27:17. > :27:22.don't think so, he is in government, I am not. So our there any normal
:27:23. > :27:27.people in here? We are from Swindon, you cannot get more
:27:28. > :27:34.abnormal. Are you a big fan of his? No! What has he done wrong? I don't
:27:35. > :27:41.believe in his views at all. Where has he got to? Nigel Farage would
:27:42. > :27:47.have had a pint! At this time in the morning a copy was more appropriate.
:27:48. > :27:52.I have no time for a drink of any kind, because now we are off to look
:27:53. > :27:56.at a local traffic blackspot. This is amazing, like a Lib Dem election
:27:57. > :28:02.leaflet brought to life, Lib Dems pointing at a road. High-vis
:28:03. > :28:09.jackets! Next we had to giggle full bath, but there will be no Regency
:28:10. > :28:18.sightseeing for us, oh no, Nick is taking us to an abandoned
:28:19. > :28:22.wilderness. We have just had a health and safety briefing, we have
:28:23. > :28:25.been told to look out for dive-bombing seagulls and an angry
:28:26. > :28:30.fox. That is the sort of thing Nick Clegg has to put up with. He wants
:28:31. > :28:37.to talk about the economy but he has to dodge the day's beat new story,
:28:38. > :28:40.letters leaked by a Tory suggesting that Lib Dems are soft on knife
:28:41. > :28:51.crime. Isn't that a new kind of warfare? I just think it is silly.
:28:52. > :28:55.They may think they are clever by catching some headlines but they are
:28:56. > :29:05.not helping people who worry about knife crime, like I do. We work
:29:06. > :29:10.together... Just like the Coalition! This is a co-working
:29:11. > :29:15.space where different businesses share the same office. My time with
:29:16. > :29:20.the Deputy Prime Minister is drawing to a close. We haven't talked about
:29:21. > :29:24.the most important story of the week, that you were voted the best
:29:25. > :29:33.looking party leader and the most likely to be a good cook. Right,
:29:34. > :29:38.this is news to me and I can guarantee you that my scepticism of
:29:39. > :29:43.opinion polls has just been confirmed. Just as well because the
:29:44. > :29:48.more serious polls don't look great for him or his party. Goodbye, and
:29:49. > :29:55.thanks for the offer of a ride home!
:29:56. > :29:59.He is still walking. Malcolm Bruce joins us now. According to Lib Dem
:30:00. > :30:06.briefing documents, you are likely to choose -- lose a big chunk of
:30:07. > :30:11.your MEPs. If you lose a lot, what would that say about a party that
:30:12. > :30:15.boasts of its pro-Europe credentials? It would be
:30:16. > :30:23.disappointing because we have the most hard-working MEPs. The worry
:30:24. > :30:26.that we have is that people think the European Parliament is not
:30:27. > :30:35.important but it takes decisions that affect us. They would be
:30:36. > :30:40.disappointing for Britain as well as the Liberal Democrats. Isn't the
:30:41. > :30:45.problem that the more you bang on about your pro-European credentials,
:30:46. > :30:49.the more you slip in the polls? I do think so, we have two weeks to go
:30:50. > :31:01.and we are campaigning extremely hard. You are forced in the polls. I
:31:02. > :31:05.can tell you there are people out there who do believe Britain should
:31:06. > :31:11.stay in the EU and they are worried that other parties will take us out.
:31:12. > :31:17.The Liberal Democrats are clear, we want to stay in, we will work for
:31:18. > :31:20.reform and do it effectively. If you lose the Liberal Democrats,
:31:21. > :31:26.Britain's influence in Europe will be weakened. Your track record in
:31:27. > :31:31.Europe shows you have been spectacularly wrong again and again.
:31:32. > :31:38.In your 2009 manifesto you said the European Central Bank and the euro
:31:39. > :31:42.have been tried and tested over ten years providing a clear picture of
:31:43. > :31:48.the benefits of Eurozone membership and that proved to be nonsense. It
:31:49. > :31:53.was nonsense everywhere. Every developed bank in the world was
:31:54. > :31:59.tried and tested and failed. Europe may not be perfect, but the question
:32:00. > :32:04.people have to decide is if we are going to leave Europe and be
:32:05. > :32:11.isolated on RM, or use our influence to reform it from inside. We have
:32:12. > :32:17.allies, you work with them, that is something the Lib Dems do better
:32:18. > :32:22.than any other parties. Your 2004 manifesto, you claim that being
:32:23. > :32:27.outside the euro would lead to job losses and reduced prosperity. You
:32:28. > :32:33.were just plain wrong, weren't you? Yes, but the reason is that to some
:32:34. > :32:41.extent the euro did not observe any rules and regulations when it was
:32:42. > :32:45.set up. That is why we never recommended Britain should join at
:32:46. > :32:53.the outset because the criteria had not been met. In 2001 Nick Clegg was
:32:54. > :32:59.writing to the Financial Times... Your track record is important. He
:33:00. > :33:03.wrote that the Tisch monetary policy is not all it is cracked up to be.
:33:04. > :33:11.Britain would gain greater control over its affairs by joining the
:33:12. > :33:18.euro. How wrong can he be? We have always argued that the currency had
:33:19. > :33:22.to abide by strict criteria. It hasn't done so and that is one of
:33:23. > :33:30.the reasons it has failed. We recognise there is no future for
:33:31. > :33:37.Britain joining the euro and we are not advocating it. Lets put your
:33:38. > :33:43.2010 manifesto on the screen. I didn't say it was not our long-term
:33:44. > :33:47.interest. If Europe succeeds as an entity, if the euro becomes one of
:33:48. > :33:55.the world leading currencies, there will come a point when it may be
:33:56. > :34:01.justified. In the circumstances we are in the moment, there is no
:34:02. > :34:06.recommended timescale. Let's get this right. Despite the Eurozone
:34:07. > :34:11.crisis which has cost millions of jobs, countries that were teetering
:34:12. > :34:16.on the brink of bankruptcy, the Eurozone now facing stagnation and
:34:17. > :34:21.some countries on the brink of deflation, you still won't rule out
:34:22. > :34:24.Britain joining? We are ruling it out in the foreseeable future. You
:34:25. > :34:28.can miss the point that we are out in the foreseeable future. You
:34:29. > :34:33.working as a coalition partner in government that has secured recovery
:34:34. > :34:38.for the UK, and working as Liberal Democrats in the parliament that
:34:39. > :34:43.have cut back the European budget in cooperation with others. What would
:34:44. > :34:50.the world look like if it were right for Britain to join the euro? You
:34:51. > :34:55.have 27 states at the moment, with too many countries still struggling
:34:56. > :34:59.to meet the criteria so until you have a strong and cohesive enough
:35:00. > :35:05.single Eurozone in which all the countries can meet that criteria,
:35:06. > :35:10.Britain is better off out. So a more centralised Eurozone, that is what
:35:11. > :35:15.you would like Britain to join? No, because it can only happen by
:35:16. > :35:22.consent. Any circumstances in which any further powers would be
:35:23. > :35:27.transferred from the UK to the EU, we would support a referendum. You
:35:28. > :35:30.have just said that for the Eurozone to work, it has to be more
:35:31. > :35:37.centralised and you said if that happens, that is what Britain would
:35:38. > :35:41.join. I didn't say that, I said it would require the consent of all
:35:42. > :35:48.member states to agree to the criteria. We certainly do not
:35:49. > :35:54.envisage joining in the foreseeable future. Since you are the proud
:35:55. > :36:01.party of in, why weren't you just give us a referendum on in or out?
:36:02. > :36:05.Because it has to have a context. What David Cameron is doing is
:36:06. > :36:10.dangerous because I think the major players like Britain and France are
:36:11. > :36:13.not keen on the idea of being bullied into reforms on the
:36:14. > :36:17.instigation of just one member state which is threatening possibility to
:36:18. > :36:27.withdraw. They will have to agree to rules... Just have it now. Do you
:36:28. > :36:31.want in or out? To have a referendum against no background is to put it
:36:32. > :36:36.out of context. We are in the middle of a crisis, a year away from the
:36:37. > :36:44.general election. We have made it clear... You said we are in the
:36:45. > :36:50.middle of the Eurozone crisis? So we are not in the middle of it? What's
:36:51. > :36:55.the middle? The reality is that the Western world has gone through a
:36:56. > :37:00.deep crisis. The UK is coming out of it, the Eurozone is coming out of
:37:01. > :37:06.it. Greece have been able to borrow on the markets in recent weeks which
:37:07. > :37:09.is a sign of success. It is in our interest is the Eurozone succeeds
:37:10. > :37:13.and recovers and we should be part of it but not necessarily on the
:37:14. > :37:17.same conditions as everyone else. The Liberal Democrats work with
:37:18. > :37:25.others to deliver Britain's interests and if they are not there,
:37:26. > :37:28.their interests will be undermined. You are watching Sunday Politics. We
:37:29. > :37:36.say goodbye to viewers in Scotland now.
:37:37. > :37:41.In the East Midlands: Safe Tory seat or the chance for a UKIP
:37:42. > :37:51.breakthrough? We'll have the latest from Newark. I think British jobs
:37:52. > :37:58.for British people, local jobs. What about Nigel Farage? No, sorry, no.
:37:59. > :38:02.And e`cigs? Plain packaging? We'll be looking at the fight to cure us
:38:03. > :38:07.of our smoking habit. I've been smoking since I was 14. It keeps you
:38:08. > :38:10.can. Hello, I'm Marie Ashby, and my
:38:11. > :38:13.guests this week: Nigel Mills, the Conservative MP for Amber Valley and
:38:14. > :38:16.Labour's Ashfield MP and Shadow Minister for Equalities and Women,
:38:17. > :38:20.Gloria De Piero. Well, what a week it's been for politics in the East
:38:21. > :38:24.Midlands! We'll look more closely at the Newark by election in a moment,
:38:25. > :38:27.but first the events of the last few days, and it all began when the
:38:28. > :38:30.Newark MP, Patrick Mercer, announced he was standing down after a damning
:38:31. > :38:38.report by the Parliamentary Standards Committee over his conduct
:38:39. > :38:44.in a lobbying scandal. I am going to resign my seat in Nottinghamshire in
:38:45. > :38:49.the town of Newark, and I hope that my successor, who has been well and
:38:50. > :38:52.carefully chosen, will be the Conservative candidate. Thank you
:38:53. > :38:55.very much indeed. Then there was fevered speculation
:38:56. > :38:58.that the UKIP leader Nigel Farage would contest the seat. By Wednesday
:38:59. > :39:03.he announced that he wouldn't because he didn't know the East
:39:04. > :39:07.Midlands very well. He certainly knows it a little better now after
:39:08. > :39:13.being hit with an egg on a visit to Nottingham. He is going to remember
:39:14. > :39:17.the East Midlands, but maybe not for the right reasons. Nigel, what do
:39:18. > :39:24.you make of Patrick Mercer's resignation? Did he do the right
:39:25. > :39:27.thing? Yes, absolutely. I think Patrick should have resigned a year
:39:28. > :39:35.ago when the scandal first came out, but there was no way he could stay.
:39:36. > :39:40.This was no minor misdemeanour. The second worst breach of the rule
:39:41. > :39:45.since 1947. An extremely serious offence we should never dream of
:39:46. > :39:50.doing. You should not take money from lobbyists to do it for
:39:51. > :39:55.something else. He has said sorry, he also said he was ashamed of his
:39:56. > :40:00.behaviour, is that enough? It brings politics and politicians into
:40:01. > :40:04.disrepute. You would hope systems exist to root out that kind of
:40:05. > :40:10.behaviour. It is a messy business, isn't it? I'm think it has ended in
:40:11. > :40:19.the right way with him leaving Parliament. Let's take a closer look
:40:20. > :40:23.at that by`election in Newark. It has always been a bit different. The
:40:24. > :40:27.Nottinghamshire town held out for the King in the Civil War against
:40:28. > :40:31.the forces of Parliament. But now it seems the Parliamentarians are
:40:32. > :40:34.causing havoc there all over again. The resignation of Patrick Mercer
:40:35. > :40:37.means there'll now be a by`election in Newark on June fifth. It's
:40:38. > :40:41.probably one the Conservatives could do without, but on paper at least it
:40:42. > :40:45.shouldn't be a problem for them. Newark is a very safe Tory seat. At
:40:46. > :40:48.the last election they had a majority of 16,000. Polling just
:40:49. > :40:51.under 27,600 votes, Labour got just under 11,500, the Lib Dems just over
:40:52. > :41:00.10,000 and UKIP were a distant fourth with under 2,000. But of
:41:01. > :41:03.course, UKIP are riding high in the opinion polls, so could this be
:41:04. > :41:05.their moment for a Parliamentary breakthrough? Des Coleman's been to
:41:06. > :41:19.Newark to assess the mood. There are not too many of these in
:41:20. > :41:27.the East Midlands, yet when you see one, you know you're in a safe
:41:28. > :41:33.Conservative seat. But the town has had a Labour MP, and even a Liberal
:41:34. > :41:39.MP, in the past. William Gladstone was MP here way back in the
:41:40. > :41:48.19th`century. Let's take a tour around Newark today. Of course, the
:41:49. > :41:54.marketplace is a great melting pot for Newark. What is the feeling
:41:55. > :42:01.here? I have always voted Conservative ever since I started
:42:02. > :42:13.voting. It sounds awful, but they do not look very manly. What about
:42:14. > :42:19.Nigel Farage? No, sorry, no. British jobs for British people, local jobs
:42:20. > :42:26.for people in Newark. It sounds like a UKIP line, are you going to vote
:42:27. > :42:34.for them? Possibly. Who would you consider voting for? I think I am
:42:35. > :42:38.with him, definitely. We have come to a Labour area, let's see what the
:42:39. > :42:47.people here have to say. Are there any other parties that can help?
:42:48. > :42:50.Now, mate, no. I would take none. The people that are running the
:42:51. > :42:56.country at the moment and generally speaking are looking after the hire
:42:57. > :43:03.people, the people on the ground floor that matter, create things,
:43:04. > :43:10.they are getting kicked in the teeth. But the focus will be whether
:43:11. > :43:18.Conservative areas like he will turn the UKIP. Do you think Colling is
:43:19. > :43:21.ready for UKIP? No, I don't think anyone should be ready for UKIP
:43:22. > :43:27.because I don't like what he stands for. What are your opinions on UKIP,
:43:28. > :43:32.would you change your vote and vote for UKIP? Not at the moment, I don't
:43:33. > :43:37.think I know enough about it. My husband would kill me if I did not
:43:38. > :43:43.vote for the Tories. Does Nigel Farage excite you? Who? Never heard
:43:44. > :43:46.of him. Well, joining us to discuss all that
:43:47. > :43:48.is Jason Zadrozny, a Lib Dem councillor in Nottinghamshire, and
:43:49. > :43:54.coincidentally the party's candidate against Gloria for the Ashfield
:43:55. > :44:01.seat. Welcome. Nigel, some encouraging signs in the villages
:44:02. > :44:07.around Newark, the Tory truck `` the Tory vote is holding up. But it is
:44:08. > :44:13.going to be a hard fight. There is no such thing as a safe seat in a
:44:14. > :44:19.by`election. We have to get out there and sure it is very important
:44:20. > :44:24.to vote Conservative in this by`election to elect effective MPs
:44:25. > :44:32.in the country's interest. What is the Labour strategy here? Hoping you
:44:33. > :44:35.can carve it up through the middle. It is the 44th safest Conservative
:44:36. > :44:40.seat in the country, so I'm surprised you're saying it might be
:44:41. > :44:43.a struggle to hold on. We want to talk about the things which form the
:44:44. > :44:48.core of Labour's strategy in the next election, it is about families
:44:49. > :44:52.that are still struggling, it is about childcare, freezing energy
:44:53. > :44:55.bills, getting people back to work. Those are the things we want to do
:44:56. > :45:01.to change Britain, that will be our message in Newark. We will be
:45:02. > :45:05.fighting for votes. We have got a great candidate. We are aware that
:45:06. > :45:11.it is one of the safest Tory seats in Britain as well. Jason, you held
:45:12. > :45:17.the seat before, but that was back in the late 1880s. A while ago, yes.
:45:18. > :45:24.But anything can happen in a by`election. Both parties are going
:45:25. > :45:29.to struggle. This sort of event does not bathe anyone in glory, frankly.
:45:30. > :45:34.We have been very popular for a long time, we have one South well Council
:45:35. > :45:40.for longer than I have been alive. The polls are not looking great.
:45:41. > :45:43.People are concentrating on the European election, that really it
:45:44. > :45:49.will come down to who is best to represent Newark, in a very large
:45:50. > :45:56.local election. Is it going to come down, Nigel, to how much damage UKIP
:45:57. > :46:03.can cause the Conservatives? We have a European election before that
:46:04. > :46:08.by`election. They are generally Eurosceptic in that election. This
:46:09. > :46:12.is a parliamentary by`election for a Westminster seat, we have to deal
:46:13. > :46:15.with the important message about how we fix the economy, create jobs,
:46:16. > :46:22.improve the health service and schools. These are not things UKIP
:46:23. > :46:31.can do. You do not think UKIP will do well? I am sure UKIP will do
:46:32. > :46:39.better than they did in 2010. But I think we will put the work in and
:46:40. > :46:43.hopefully retain a receipt. Gloria, will UKIP damage the Conservative
:46:44. > :46:50.vote? What is really harmful and hurtful and worrying, when you hear
:46:51. > :46:56.people saying, I think UKIP is as much about an anti`politics feel as
:46:57. > :46:59.it is about anything else, and that is a big wake`up called to all
:47:00. > :47:04.politicians. We cannot sit there and fight amongst ourselves. We do not
:47:05. > :47:10.want to fight for a dwindling number of votes amongst us. We have got to
:47:11. > :47:14.change ourselves as well. There was a sense that people feel there is no
:47:15. > :47:19.other option, the parties are not giving them anything so they have to
:47:20. > :47:23.look elsewhere? UKIP is the Party of Satan bites and fear at the moment.
:47:24. > :47:31.Everything that is negative and pessimistic `` the party of sound
:47:32. > :47:35.bites. There is a dwindling number of people, but there is still 60% of
:47:36. > :47:40.people, because it is a European election, it is licensing people to
:47:41. > :47:45.think about another party. They are voting for UKIP no matter what they
:47:46. > :47:49.really feel. In the parliamentary by`election, coming up to the 2015
:47:50. > :47:54.general election, people will come home to the parties they feel really
:47:55. > :47:58.represent them. We fight every election but we do not know what the
:47:59. > :48:03.people of Newark feel. I have got friends there, through and through
:48:04. > :48:06.liberals. I think if we can get the message out of what we have done
:48:07. > :48:11.locally, we will hold onto the share of the vote. Nigel, this is a
:48:12. > :48:15.by`election you could well do without. Would not have been better
:48:16. > :48:20.if he had stayed in his seat until a better time the Tories? No, he went
:48:21. > :48:26.at the right time and it is a good thing he has gone. I think for him
:48:27. > :48:34.to stay would have been completely wrong. If you lose the seat, it does
:48:35. > :48:40.not bear thinking about, does it? That is the issue with a by`election
:48:41. > :48:48.in a safe seat. Newark was a seat taken by Labour, but it shows how
:48:49. > :48:53.far they have got to go. It is a totally different seat. Our Labour
:48:54. > :49:01.are going to be campaigning there? Of course. It is one of the safest
:49:02. > :49:07.Tory seats in the country, remember. You are not going to fight hard for
:49:08. > :49:10.it? Of course, we have got a great candidate. Of course we will. It
:49:11. > :49:16.will give us the opportunity to say we are the only party who will help
:49:17. > :49:22.living standards and help people while they are struggling. Not too
:49:23. > :49:26.long until the 5th of June. And next week we'll be setting out our stall
:49:27. > :49:30.in Newark, literally. On Wednesday we'll be in the Market Place to hear
:49:31. > :49:32.your views. So do come along if you're in town.
:49:33. > :49:35.Now, cigarette smokers trying to give up their habit in the East
:49:36. > :49:37.Midlands say they're alarmed at moves to ban smoking nicotine
:49:38. > :49:41.substitutes like e`cigarettes in public places. At the moment the
:49:42. > :49:44.proposal is only for Wales, but it's an idea that's gaining ground. It
:49:45. > :49:47.highlights the sensitive subject of tobacco policy, with smoking causing
:49:48. > :49:50.thousands of early deaths and illnesses but also generating huge
:49:51. > :49:55.revenues for the government. Here's Chris Doidge.
:49:56. > :50:00.In Nottingham, it is estimated as much as half of the population
:50:01. > :50:06.smokes. I have been smoking since I was 14, it is the only thing that
:50:07. > :50:12.keeps me calm. Local authorities are trying to do something about it. As
:50:13. > :50:19.you can see, on the high street here, we are making it as accessible
:50:20. > :50:23.service as possible. Smokers trying to kick the habit are offered
:50:24. > :50:30.nicotine patches and gum, but not the latest, rapidly growing
:50:31. > :50:35.innovation, East cigarettes. We are waiting for electronics to become
:50:36. > :50:45.regulated. That will obviously get away from that grey area. For some,
:50:46. > :50:53.East cigarettes or a lifetime `` East cigarettes. I don't smoke much
:50:54. > :51:00.anyway. I find these a lot cheaper to start off with. It is beneficial
:51:01. > :51:06.for my health. I feel like a cigarette, I don't like it. This is
:51:07. > :51:11.asking questions to consumers of tobacco. But also of regulators,
:51:12. > :51:16.both in Westminster and Brussels. In Ripley in Derbyshire, one of the
:51:17. > :51:25.hundreds of electronic cigarette shops, with a mind`boggling array of
:51:26. > :51:28.flavours available. Polar bears. The store manager acknowledges consumers
:51:29. > :51:34.do not feel they have all of the facts about what is known as the
:51:35. > :51:38.ping. There are some doubts out there, whether that is to do with
:51:39. > :51:43.imported liquid from China not been tested in the UK, they are not sure
:51:44. > :51:49.whether they will be able to passive smoke them, whether it is safe or
:51:50. > :51:53.not, it is. The regulation is tightening, first a ban on selling
:51:54. > :51:57.to under 18 's, next, possibly stopping their use in public places.
:51:58. > :52:02.The government is also looking at declaring them a pharmaceutical
:52:03. > :52:05.product. We have had a lot of customers who are worried about the
:52:06. > :52:09.fact that if it goes to a pharmaceutical way of purchasing,
:52:10. > :52:13.what are they going to do, how were they going to get these products
:52:14. > :52:22.they need? Not good for you either, presumably? Definitely, it will ruin
:52:23. > :52:26.our business. 540 jobs will be lost next year at this Nottingham
:52:27. > :52:31.factory. The government is blaming the increase in taxes for the need
:52:32. > :52:34.to close the plant. Rightly, trade unions say the company is also
:52:35. > :52:40.blaming overregulation. `` privately. There are a lot of
:52:41. > :52:42.difficult issues for politicians to have the balance when it comes to
:52:43. > :52:45.cigarettes. We're joined by Professor John
:52:46. > :52:51.Britton, Director of the UK Centre for Tobacco and Alcohol Studies
:52:52. > :53:01.based at Nottingham University. What is your view of e`cigarettes, good
:53:02. > :53:04.or bad? Definitely good. They have the potential to help millions of
:53:05. > :53:07.smokers stop smoking and prevent millions of deaths in the United
:53:08. > :53:14.Kingdom. They are huge benefits of health. To me, the challenges
:53:15. > :53:21.involved in managing the risks that. What risks? The risks are of the
:53:22. > :53:25.product itself, which are unregulated, users do not know what
:53:26. > :53:29.they are inhaling into their lungs. And the risks that commercial
:53:30. > :53:33.pressures will drive towards pushing these products out into nonsmokers,
:53:34. > :53:39.ridiculously the biggest market of nonsmokers for the future, today's
:53:40. > :53:45.young people. Could they not just prolong the process of giving up?
:53:46. > :53:49.Not necessarily, smokers smoke for nicotine but are killed by the
:53:50. > :53:55.smoke. If they switch to a nicotine product that does not deliver smoke,
:53:56. > :54:01.and Carrie is amusing that that `` and carry on using that, that will
:54:02. > :54:08.not be bad. Gloria, you use e`cigarettes. Was that to help you
:54:09. > :54:14.give up real cigarettes? I smoked real cigarettes, but if I am honest
:54:15. > :54:20.I did not know how I was going to give up. Then e`cigarettes came
:54:21. > :54:26.along, I tried one, three years ago, and I have not smoked a cigarette
:54:27. > :54:29.since. I am so pleased. I agree with you, I would like them to be
:54:30. > :54:34.regulated and what I am putting in my lungs. I would like to know where
:54:35. > :54:40.this stuff is made. What is your reaction when people see you with
:54:41. > :54:47.e`cigarettes? They think I look slightly ridiculous. But I am not
:54:48. > :54:53.kidding myself. Can you use one in the House of Commons? In the
:54:54. > :54:58.tearooms, I would not sit smoking in the chamber. Bands are happening,
:54:59. > :55:03.Nigel, aren't they? Ireland has banned e`cigarettes in hospitals,
:55:04. > :55:09.Wales are considering a ban in public places. Does the public want
:55:10. > :55:13.this? No, we should be very careful. It would be wrong to have more
:55:14. > :55:18.restrictions on e`cigarettes than on real cigarettes. You have to go into
:55:19. > :55:25.a pharmacy to get one behind the counter, rather foolish thing to do.
:55:26. > :55:30.You want these to easily available. We need to make sure what is in
:55:31. > :55:37.them. There is a drive to ban them, isn't there? There seems to be this
:55:38. > :55:41.move towards that. We want people to stop smoking, not to start, we need
:55:42. > :55:46.to be careful about what is going on. I think it is completely wrong
:55:47. > :55:51.to try to ban these things. What will the effect of banning them be?
:55:52. > :55:55.Banning in public places, you mean. Or the most part it is not a big
:55:56. > :55:59.imposition, smokers are used to smoking out doors and will accept
:56:00. > :56:05.that imposition without too much of a complaint. But my concern is, as
:56:06. > :56:08.expressed, that these are products that are substitutes and
:56:09. > :56:13.alternatives for smoking. It is important we realise that potential.
:56:14. > :56:19.If you say you cannot use them in places where smokers are desperate,
:56:20. > :56:25.that seems wrong to me. Soave safer for passive smokers? There is a
:56:26. > :56:30.theoretical risk but it is probably a trivial one. The main one is a
:56:31. > :56:33.problem of courtesy and intrusion, if you are sitting in a restaurant,
:56:34. > :56:39.you would rather not have other people's vapour blowing into your
:56:40. > :56:43.face. But we cannot get away from the fact that cigarettes do bring in
:56:44. > :56:48.a lot of revenue for the government, but if you then drive this problem
:56:49. > :56:54.underground, it makes it easier for illicit tobacco to flourish?
:56:55. > :56:59.Cigarettes are big revenue, they are also a big drain on the public
:57:00. > :57:05.purse. I don't think you should say let's keep smoking to keep revenue
:57:06. > :57:13.going, that would be crazy. You want to make sure this market on
:57:14. > :57:17.e`cigarettes is a fair one. And that they are not somehow being sold out
:57:18. > :57:22.of other devious outlets. But these things look like to be a step in the
:57:23. > :57:26.right direction. It sounds like you're sitting on the fence. Will
:57:27. > :57:31.the government come out and say, one way or the other, how it feels about
:57:32. > :57:36.these? There is work being done to see what the best way of regulating
:57:37. > :57:41.these is. It is wise to sit on the fence in these things, we do not
:57:42. > :57:47.know what is in these e`cigarettes. Should we be having them out there
:57:48. > :57:49.in the first place? If you move to ban them before we can examine these
:57:50. > :57:54.potential suppliers, things coming from China, it will be years before
:57:55. > :57:57.you get them on the market. If you are buying them out of car boots, or
:57:58. > :58:01.smoking more cigarettes, you have to get the balance right. We should
:58:02. > :58:06.check and make sure they are safe as they can be. To say, no, you cannot
:58:07. > :58:13.sell them until we have spent years checking them, is a foolish thing to
:58:14. > :58:16.do. The anti`smoking campaign, to get smoking banned in places, quite
:58:17. > :58:23.graphic adverts on cigarette packets, say, these are good thing.
:58:24. > :58:28.They support them. The anti`smoking campaigners are behind them, and
:58:29. > :58:33.that says a lot. What do you think the government's stands should be on
:58:34. > :58:36.this? That they want these products out there, they should be easy for
:58:37. > :58:41.smokers to access, priced competitively against cigarettes,
:58:42. > :58:47.and a justification to bed cigarette prices up still further. We need
:58:48. > :58:50.regulation and streamlined regulation to make sure that when
:58:51. > :58:53.you buy one of these products you know you're not inhaling something
:58:54. > :58:57.that is going to cause long`term harm. We need restrictions on
:58:58. > :59:03.marketing and promotion to protect children. And you still think they
:59:04. > :59:08.are a good idea in the meantime. In the meantime if we can get more
:59:09. > :59:12.smokers smoking electronic, that is a good thing.
:59:13. > :59:15.Time for a round`up of some of the other political stories in the East
:59:16. > :59:17.Midlands this week. Here's our Political Editor, John Hess, with 60
:59:18. > :59:20.Seconds. The government says there been an
:59:21. > :59:26.improvement at Derby's Al`Madinah School, which was placed in special
:59:27. > :59:31.measures. The Department for Education says the latest report
:59:32. > :59:33.shows it is making good progress. Nottingham City Council has welcomed
:59:34. > :59:38.government plans for tougher planning restrictions for betting
:59:39. > :59:45.shops. The council had signed up to a campaign to limit the number of
:59:46. > :59:47.bookies on the high street. One MP has spoken out against sexual
:59:48. > :59:53.harassment for interns working in Parliament. The Labour MP told radio
:59:54. > :59:58.fours that all parties need to tackle the issue. There are people
:59:59. > :00:02.who are victims who were not listened to, who do not feel they
:00:03. > :00:06.can speak out. And a second Labour MP has joined the battle against a
:00:07. > :00:17.ban on importing mangoes from India. John Ashworth wants to overturn an
:00:18. > :00:21.EU ban on mangoes. That's the Sunday Politics in the
:00:22. > :00:27.East Midlands. Thanks to Gloria De Piero and Nigel Mills. Thanks very
:00:28. > :00:30.much for joining us. Now back to Andrew Neil. Thanks for
:00:31. > :00:35.on our website. That is all we have got time for this week. Next week,
:00:36. > :00:42.London's local elections. Welcome back. Now, the Government is
:00:43. > :00:46.not very good at predicting the future. That's according to a report
:00:47. > :00:49.from a committee of MPs this morning who say that its Horizon Scanning
:00:50. > :00:51.programme that's supposed to identify potential threats, risks,
:00:52. > :00:57.emerging issues and opportunities isn't much good at reading the tea
:00:58. > :01:00.leaves. But can it really be any worse than our panel? Here they are
:01:01. > :01:11.predicting the future of then culture secretary Maria Miller
:01:12. > :01:14.before Easter. Can she survive? I'm getting out of
:01:15. > :01:20.the prediction game after I said Nick Clegg would win the debates.
:01:21. > :01:26.But I almost think she might. If there is a big event that moves this
:01:27. > :01:32.off the front pages. David Cameron will want to keep Maria Miller until
:01:33. > :01:39.at least his summary shuffle. I think they will get rid of her. I
:01:40. > :01:44.think they will do the decent thing after exhausting all other options.
:01:45. > :01:53.Maria Miller resigned a few days later of course! The best and the
:01:54. > :01:56.brightest, when did that slip in? This week it will be exactly a year
:01:57. > :02:04.until the General Election, so what better time to get our panel to gaze
:02:05. > :02:10.into their crystal balls again. What's the outcome of the election
:02:11. > :02:18.in 2015? I'm going to go with the polls and say Ed Miliband as the
:02:19. > :02:22.Prime Minister. But the polls are only a snapshot of opinion now, you
:02:23. > :02:30.think they will be the same in a year? No, I think they will narrow.
:02:31. > :02:35.I think UKIP's vote share will fall. I think they are currently coasting
:02:36. > :02:43.on a high and that will tailor way so they won't take as many votes off
:02:44. > :02:49.the Tories. Labour with a majority or is the largest party. Another
:02:50. > :02:56.liberal Conservative coalition, and I say that because he is already in
:02:57. > :03:01.touching distance of Labour. I don't think UKIP will get 15, maybe half
:03:02. > :03:06.of that, and most of the votes they lose will either not vote at all go
:03:07. > :03:11.to the Tories and that should be enough to be the biggest party in a
:03:12. > :03:17.hung parliament I don't envisage a Tory majority. I am also going to go
:03:18. > :03:21.with the polls. For Ed Miliband to be hoping to win at this stage, he
:03:22. > :03:29.has got to be way ahead in the polls. Labour needs to be much
:03:30. > :03:33.further ahead if he is going to win so David Cameron, probably the
:03:34. > :03:37.leader of the largest party. Last time after the election David
:03:38. > :03:41.Cameron went to the 1922 committee and announced he was Prime Minister
:03:42. > :03:45.as head of the Coalition. He has agreed this time he will consult
:03:46. > :03:50.them and it will be much more difficult for him to get a
:03:51. > :03:56.coalition. People at home have now concluded there will be a Liberal
:03:57. > :04:01.Democrat landslide! Are we going to have debates? Yes, probably further
:04:02. > :04:08.away from polling day then last time. That is the Liberal Democrat
:04:09. > :04:14.point, isn't it? Yes, it sucks all the life out of the campaign, so the
:04:15. > :04:17.last six weeks will be left to traditional campaigning. What did
:04:18. > :04:27.you make of this in the Sunday Times this morning, this two, three, five
:04:28. > :04:34.formula. There should be a Cameron, Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg debate, then
:04:35. > :04:45.there should be another one with them and UKIP and the Greens. It
:04:46. > :04:50.might be testing the patience of the nation to tune into all of those. If
:04:51. > :04:54.you're going to say Nigel Farage should be there, the Green party
:04:55. > :05:00.should be too. They know that as soon as you put them on a podium
:05:01. > :05:06.next to them, he looks like he has equal stature and that is a problem.
:05:07. > :05:10.David Cameron does not want the debates to happen on the way they
:05:11. > :05:15.happened last time. It is generally regarded, Lynton Crosby believes
:05:16. > :05:21.they were a disaster for David Cameron because they allowed Nick
:05:22. > :05:26.Clegg to be the fresh person. He knows he cannot say no to them so
:05:27. > :05:30.the moment you see David Cameron suggesting that Caroline Lucas
:05:31. > :05:34.should be in the debate, you know he is not serious. What he will try to
:05:35. > :05:39.do is have more debates, have them outside the main part of the general
:05:40. > :05:42.election so that it doesn't dominate. The problem the David
:05:43. > :05:49.Cameron is that the campaign will be much longer. It is a five-week
:05:50. > :05:54.campaign so it is quite difficult for him to say we will only have one
:05:55. > :05:58.debate in that campaign. I think smother it with love, hopefully it
:05:59. > :06:03.will go to the courts for him and hopefully they will never happen and
:06:04. > :06:08.he will be delighted. The European election and the local elections are
:06:09. > :06:12.coming up. The three mainstream parties are saying it is a flash in
:06:13. > :06:18.the pan, they don't really matter and so on, but if UKIP comes a
:06:19. > :06:24.strong first, if Labour comes a poor second and the Tories come a poor
:06:25. > :06:30.third, it will have consequences for all three, and the Lib Dems come
:06:31. > :06:34.forth or even fish. It will have consequences and not just in the
:06:35. > :06:37.media but on the ground. One of the big stories is what will happen to
:06:38. > :06:46.the Lib Dems, they face losing all of their MEPs. A good result for
:06:47. > :06:49.them is lit -- in the local elections is losing 250 councillors.
:06:50. > :06:56.These are the most interesting elections we have had for some
:06:57. > :07:00.time. Are we heading for a Nick Clegg summer leadership crisis? I
:07:01. > :07:04.think we are heading towards reversing the clock back to where we
:07:05. > :07:10.were before the Eastleigh by-election. That quiet and things
:07:11. > :07:15.down for Nick Clegg. If they lose all their MEPs, and there is a real
:07:16. > :07:20.chance they will, Vince Cable will be out on manoeuvres because age is
:07:21. > :07:27.not on his side. If he can say Nick Clegg is a loser and a failure, he
:07:28. > :07:42.will be back. Will the Tories go into headless chicken mode if they
:07:43. > :07:49.come third? Yes, if UKIP come first there will not be as much panic as
:07:50. > :07:53.if Labour come first. Is Labour comes a poor second, will there be
:07:54. > :07:58.some pressure on Ed Miliband to reopen his attitude to the
:07:59. > :08:02.referendum? I don't think so and my colleague was talking to Labour
:08:03. > :08:06.sources who said he is absolutely not going to. That is something you
:08:07. > :08:11.can say definitely about him, he decides on a course and he sticks to
:08:12. > :08:17.it. There is one potential upside for David Cameron in a really bad
:08:18. > :08:20.Conservative results, it could strengthen his hand in the
:08:21. > :08:25.renegotiations of Britain's EU membership because he doesn't even
:08:26. > :08:33.need to say to Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande it is there. David
:08:34. > :08:37.Cameron hasn't just been fighting for his party into the local
:08:38. > :08:40.elections. He also got his knuckles wrapped by the Speaker, John Bercow,
:08:41. > :08:47.at Prime Minister's Question Time, for talking for too long. Take a
:08:48. > :08:52.look at this. There is a better future ahead of us but we must not
:08:53. > :08:57.go backward to the policies that put us in this mess in the first place.
:08:58. > :09:15.I don't know what they are paying him, Mr Speaker. Order, order. I
:09:16. > :09:19.haven't finished! In response to that question, the Prime Minister
:09:20. > :09:27.has finished and he can take it from me that he has finished. I can't
:09:28. > :09:32.remember a speaker ever speaking to a Prime Minister like that. Clearly
:09:33. > :09:37.in that case, John Bercow crossed a line. It is Prime Minister 's
:09:38. > :09:43.questions, he is entitled to answer the questions. There is really bad
:09:44. > :09:49.blood between those two, going back a long way. They hate each other and
:09:50. > :09:55.the worrying thing about that was the look of triumphalism on the
:09:56. > :09:56.speaker's face afterwards. He is a remarkable, revolutionary
:09:57. > :09:58.who has made the House of Commons more
:09:59. > :10:43.who has made the House of Commons someone else replaces him. He is
:10:44. > :10:50.quite popular with Labour, is he not? Yes, he is married to a Labour
:10:51. > :10:55.activist and is notably sympathetic to Labour but I think this is a
:10:56. > :10:59.difficult situation. David Cameron also overstepped the line. As soon
:11:00. > :11:06.as the speaker says order, the idea is that the House was to order and
:11:07. > :11:11.David Cameron pushed him. They are both trying to score points off each
:11:12. > :11:18.other. We cover Prime Minister 's questions every week on the daily
:11:19. > :11:23.politics, and there is a danger that he sees it as an opportunity to do
:11:24. > :11:26.some grandstanding. You slightly sends his vanity gets the better of
:11:27. > :12:56.him. It is