:00:37. > :00:43.Welfare reform is one of the government's most popular policies.
:00:44. > :00:46.So Labour says it would be even tougher than the Tories.
:00:47. > :00:50.We'll be asking the Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary if she's got
:00:51. > :00:56.Even Labour supporters worry that Ed Miliband hasn't got what it takes
:00:57. > :01:01.Labour grandees are increasingly vocal about their concerns.
:01:02. > :01:12.Over 50% of Labour voters think they'd do better with a new leader.
:01:13. > :01:26.In the East Midlands Lib Dels and I apparently "toxic" on the doorstep.
:01:27. > :01:28.In the East Midlands Lib Dels and I region cold for a new leader.
:01:29. > :01:40.promised an electric car revolution, why so little progress?
:01:41. > :01:47.Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh, the toxic tweeters
:01:48. > :01:55.First, the deepening crisis in Iraq, where Sunni Islamists are now
:01:56. > :01:58.largely in control of the Syrian-Iraq border, which means
:01:59. > :02:04.they can now re-supply their forces in Iraq from their Syrian bases
:02:05. > :02:07.Rather than moving on Baghdad, they are for the moment consolidating
:02:08. > :02:09.their grip on the towns and cities they've already taken.
:02:10. > :02:11.They also seem to be in effective control of Iraq's
:02:12. > :02:15.biggest oil refinery, which supplies the capital.
:02:16. > :02:18.And there are reports they might now have taken the power
:02:19. > :02:24.Iraqi politicians are now admitting that ISIS,
:02:25. > :02:27.the name of the Sunni insurgents, is better trained, better equipped and
:02:28. > :02:33.far more battle-hardened than the US-trained Iraqi army fighting it.
:02:34. > :02:35.Which leaves the fate of Baghdad increasingly in the hands
:02:36. > :02:53.No good news coming out of there, Janan. No good news and no good
:02:54. > :02:57.options either. The West's best strategy is to decide how much
:02:58. > :03:02.support to give to the Iraqi government. The US is sending over
:03:03. > :03:05.about 275 military personnel. Do they go further and contemplate
:03:06. > :03:12.their support? General Petraeus argued against it as it might be
:03:13. > :03:17.seen as the US serving as the force of Shia Iraqis -- continue their
:03:18. > :03:26.support. Do we contemplate breaking up Iraq? It won't be easy. The Sunni
:03:27. > :03:30.and Shia Muslim populations don t live in clearly bordered areas, but
:03:31. > :03:34.in the longer term, do we deal with it in the same way we dealt with the
:03:35. > :03:38.break-up of the Ottoman empire over 100 years ago? In the short-term and
:03:39. > :03:46.long-term, completely confounding. Quite humiliating. If ISIS take
:03:47. > :03:52.Baghdad I can't think of a bigger ignominy for foreign policy since
:03:53. > :03:55.Suez. If Iraq is partitioned, it won't be up to us. It will be what
:03:56. > :04:01.is happening because of what is happening on the ground. Everything
:04:02. > :04:07.does point to partition, and that border, which ISIS control, between
:04:08. > :04:13.Syria and Iraq, that has been there since it was drawn during the First
:04:14. > :04:16.World War. That is gone as well An astonishingly humbling situation the
:04:17. > :04:24.West, and you can see the Kurds in the North think this is a charge --
:04:25. > :04:27.chance for authority. They think this is the chance to get the
:04:28. > :04:33.autonomy they felt they deserved a long time. Janan is right. We can't
:04:34. > :04:37.do much in the long term, but we have to decide on the engagement.
:04:38. > :04:40.And the other people wish you'd be talking turkey, because if there is
:04:41. > :04:45.some blowback and the fighters come back, they are likely to come back
:04:46. > :04:50.from Turkey. Where is Iran in all of this? There were reports last week
:04:51. > :04:53.that the Revolutionary guard, the head of it, he was already in
:04:54. > :04:58.Baghdad with 67 advisers and there might have been some brigades that
:04:59. > :05:03.have gone there as well. Where are they? What has happened? I'm pretty
:05:04. > :05:14.sure the Prime Minister of Iraq is putting more faith in Iran than the
:05:15. > :05:18.White House and the British. I think they are running the show, in
:05:19. > :05:23.technical terms. John Kerry is flying into Cairo this morning, and
:05:24. > :05:26.what is his message? It is twofold. One is to Arab countries, do more to
:05:27. > :05:32.encourage an inclusive government in Iraq, mainly Sunni Muslims in the
:05:33. > :05:37.government, and the Arab Gulf states should stop funding insurgents in
:05:38. > :05:42.Iraq. You think, Iraq, it's potentially going to break up, so
:05:43. > :05:45.this sounds a bit late in the day and a bit weak. It gets
:05:46. > :05:49.fundamentally to the problem, what can we do? Niall Ferguson has a big
:05:50. > :05:53.piece in the Sunday Times asking if this is place where we cannot doing
:05:54. > :05:59.anything. He doesn't want to do anything. By the way, that is what
:06:00. > :06:03.most Americans think. That is what opinion polls are showing. You have
:06:04. > :06:07.George Osborne Michael Gold who would love to get involved but they
:06:08. > :06:10.cannot because of the vote in parliament on Syria lasted -- George
:06:11. > :06:15.Osborne and Michael Gove. This government does not have the stomach
:06:16. > :06:19.for military intervention. We will see how events unfold on the ground.
:06:20. > :06:21.All parties are agreed that Britain's 60-year old multi-billion
:06:22. > :06:26.The Tory side of the Coalition think their reforms are necessary
:06:27. > :06:29.and popular, though they haven't always gone to time or to plan.
:06:30. > :06:33.In the eight months she's had since she became Shadow Secretary of State
:06:34. > :06:40.for Work and Pensions, Rachel Reeves has talked the talk about getting
:06:41. > :06:43.people off benefits, into work and lowering the overall welfare bill.
:06:44. > :06:45.her first interview in the job she threatened "We would
:06:46. > :06:49.But Labour has opposed just about every change the Coalition
:06:50. > :06:54.has proposed to cut the cost and change the culture of welfare.
:06:55. > :06:56.Child benefit, housing benefit, the ?26,000 benefit cap -
:06:57. > :07:03.They've been lukewarm about the government's flagship Universal
:07:04. > :07:06.Credit scheme - which rolls six benefit payments into one - and
:07:07. > :07:13.And Labour has set out only two modest welfare cuts.
:07:14. > :07:16.This week, Labour said young people must have skills or be in training
:07:17. > :07:22.That will save ?65 million, says Labour, though the cost
:07:23. > :07:27.And cutting winter fuel payments for richer pensioners which will
:07:28. > :07:35.Not a lot in a total welfare bill of around ?200 billion.
:07:36. > :07:38.And with welfare cuts popular among even Labour voters, they will soon
:07:39. > :07:44.have to start spelling out exactly what Labour welfare reform means.
:07:45. > :07:57.Welcome. Good morning. Why do you want to be tougher than the Tories?
:07:58. > :08:01.We want to be tough in getting the welfare bill down. Under this
:08:02. > :08:04.government, the bill will be ?1 million more than the government set
:08:05. > :08:09.out in 2010 and I don't think that is acceptable. We should try to
:08:10. > :08:13.control the cost of Social Security. But the welfare bill under the next
:08:14. > :08:17.Labour government will fall? It will be smaller when you end the first
:08:18. > :08:22.parliament than when you started? We signed up to the capping welfare but
:08:23. > :08:27.that doesn't see social security costs ball, it sees them go up in
:08:28. > :08:32.line with with inflation or average earnings -- costs fall. So where
:08:33. > :08:37.flair will rise? We have signed up to the cap -- welfare will rise We
:08:38. > :08:42.have signed up to the cap. We will get the costs under control and they
:08:43. > :08:44.haven't managed to achieve it. The government is spending ?13 billion
:08:45. > :08:50.more on Social Security and the reason they are doing it is because
:08:51. > :08:53.the minimum wage has not kept pace with the cost of living so people
:08:54. > :08:57.are reliant on tax credits. They are not building houses and people are
:08:58. > :09:03.relying on housing benefit. We have a record number of people on zero
:09:04. > :09:07.hours contracts. I'm still not clear if you will cut welfare if you get
:09:08. > :09:13.in power. Nobody is saying that the cost of welfare is going to fall.
:09:14. > :09:19.The welfare cap sees that happening gradually. That is a Tory cap. And
:09:20. > :09:26.you've accepted it. You're being the same as the Tories, not to. If they
:09:27. > :09:29.had a welfare cap, they would have breached it in every year of the
:09:30. > :09:34.parliament. Social Security will be higher than the government set out
:09:35. > :09:38.because they failed to control it. You read the polls, and the party
:09:39. > :09:41.does lots of its own polling, and you're scared of being seen as the
:09:42. > :09:47.welfare party. You don't really believe all of this anti-welfare
:09:48. > :09:50.stuff? We are the party of work not welfare. The Labour Party was set up
:09:51. > :09:53.in the first place because we believe in the dignity of work and
:09:54. > :09:56.we believe that work should pay wages can afford to live on. I make
:09:57. > :10:01.no apologies for being the party of work. We are not the welfare party,
:10:02. > :10:06.we are the party of work. Even your confidential strategy document
:10:07. > :10:09.admits that voters don't trust you on immigration, the economy, this is
:10:10. > :10:14.your own people, and welfare. You are not trusted on it. The most
:10:15. > :10:17.recent poll showed Labour slightly ahead of the Conservative Party on
:10:18. > :10:22.Social Security, probably because they have seen the incompetence and
:10:23. > :10:26.chaos at the Department for Work and Pensions under Iain Duncan Smith.
:10:27. > :10:32.Your own internal document means that the voters don't trust you on
:10:33. > :10:35.welfare reform. That is why we have shown some of this tough things we
:10:36. > :10:40.will do like the announcement that Ed Miliband made earlier this week,
:10:41. > :10:44.that young people without basic qualifications won't be entitled to
:10:45. > :10:47.just sign on for benefits, they have to sign up for training in order to
:10:48. > :10:50.receive support. That is the right thing to do by that group of young
:10:51. > :11:00.people, because they need skills to progress. We will, once that. - we
:11:01. > :11:05.will, onto that. You say you criticise the government that it had
:11:06. > :11:09.a cap and wouldn't have met it, but every money-saving welfare reform,
:11:10. > :11:16.you voted against it. How is that being tougher? The most recent bout
:11:17. > :11:20.was the cap on overall welfare expenditure, and we went through the
:11:21. > :11:25.lobbies and voted for the Tories. You voted against the benefit cap,
:11:26. > :11:30.welfare rating, you voted against, child benefit schemes, you voted
:11:31. > :11:32.against. You can't say we voted against everything when we voted
:11:33. > :11:37.with the Conservatives in the most recent bill with a cap on Social
:11:38. > :11:44.Security. It's just not correct to say. The last time we voted, we
:11:45. > :11:50.walked through the lobby with them. You voted on the principle of the
:11:51. > :11:55.cap. You voted on every step that would allow the cap to be met. Every
:11:56. > :11:59.single one. The most recent vote was not on the principle of the cap it
:12:00. > :12:02.was on a cap of Social Security in the next Parliament and we signed up
:12:03. > :12:06.for that. It was Ed Miliband who called her that earlier on. Which
:12:07. > :12:13.welfare reform did you vote for We voted for the cap. Other than that?
:12:14. > :12:19.We have supported universal credit. You voted against it in the third
:12:20. > :12:24.reading. We voted against some of the specifics. If you look at
:12:25. > :12:28.universal credit, they have had to write off nearly ?900 million of
:12:29. > :12:32.spending. I'm not on the rights and wrongs, I'm trying to work out what
:12:33. > :12:35.you voted for. Some of the things we are going to go further than the
:12:36. > :12:41.government with. For example, cutting benefits for young people
:12:42. > :12:44.who don't sign of the training. The government had introduced that. For
:12:45. > :12:46.example, saying that the richest pensioners should not get the winter
:12:47. > :12:51.fuel allowance, that is something the government haven't signed up.
:12:52. > :12:54.You would get that under Labour and this government haven't signed up
:12:55. > :13:00.for it. ?100 million on the winter fuel allowance and ?65 million on
:13:01. > :13:06.youth training. ?165 million. How big is the welfare budget? The cap
:13:07. > :13:13.would apply to ?120 billion. And you've saved 125 -- 165 million
:13:14. > :13:18.Those are cuts that we said we would do in government. If you look at the
:13:19. > :13:21.real prize from the changes Ed Miliband announced in the youth
:13:22. > :13:25.allowance, it's not the short-term savings, it's the fact that each of
:13:26. > :13:28.these young people, who are currently on unemployment benefits
:13:29. > :13:34.without the skills we know they need to succeed in life, they will cost
:13:35. > :13:39.the taxpayer ?2000 per year. I will come onto that. You mentioned
:13:40. > :13:42.universal credit, which the government regards as the flagship
:13:43. > :13:48.reform. It's had lots of troubles with it and it merges six benefits
:13:49. > :13:51.into one. You voted against it in the third reading and given lukewarm
:13:52. > :13:58.support in the past. We have not said he would abandon it, but now
:13:59. > :14:02.you say you are for it. You are all over the place. We set up the rescue
:14:03. > :14:04.committee in autumn of last year because we have seen from the
:14:05. > :14:09.National Audit Office and the Public Accounts Committee, report after
:14:10. > :14:14.report showing that the project is massively overbudget and is not
:14:15. > :14:18.going to be delivered according to the government timetable. We set up
:14:19. > :14:20.the committee because we believe in the principle of universal credit
:14:21. > :14:25.and think it is the right thing to do. Can you tell us now if you will
:14:26. > :14:32.keep it or not? Because there is no transparency and we have no idea. We
:14:33. > :14:37.are awash with information. We are not. The government, in the most
:14:38. > :14:42.recent National audit Forest -- National Audit Office statement said
:14:43. > :14:47.it was a reset project. This is really important. This is a flagship
:14:48. > :14:52.government programme, and it's going to cost ?12.8 billion to deliver,
:14:53. > :14:56.and we don't know what sort of state it is in, so we have said that if we
:14:57. > :15:04.win at the next election, we will pause that for three months and
:15:05. > :15:09.calling... Will you stop the pilots? We don't know what status they will
:15:10. > :15:12.have. We would stop the build of the system for three months, calling the
:15:13. > :15:18.National Audit Office to do awards and all report. The government don't
:15:19. > :15:21.need to do this until the next general election, they could do it
:15:22. > :15:26.today. Stop throwing good money after bad and get a grip of this
:15:27. > :15:31.incredibly important programme. You said you don't know enough to a view
:15:32. > :15:34.now. So when you were invited to a job centre where universal credit is
:15:35. > :15:40.being rolled out to see how it was working, you refused to go. Why We
:15:41. > :15:43.asked were a meeting with Iain Duncan Smith and he cancelled the
:15:44. > :15:46.meeting is three times. I'm talking about the visit when you were
:15:47. > :15:51.offered to go to a job centre and you refused. We had an appointment
:15:52. > :15:54.to meet Iain Duncan Smith at the Department for Work and Pensions and
:15:55. > :15:58.said he cancelled and was not available, but he wanted us to go to
:15:59. > :16:03.the job centre. We wanted to talk to him and his officials, which she
:16:04. > :16:06.did. Would it be more useful to go to the job centre and find out how
:16:07. > :16:21.it was working. He's going to tell you it's working fine.
:16:22. > :16:27.Advice Bureau in Hammersmith, they are working to help the people
:16:28. > :16:33.trying to claim universal credit. Iain Duncan Smith cancelled three
:16:34. > :16:38.meetings. That is another issue I was asking about the job centre It
:16:39. > :16:44.is not another issue because Iain Duncan Smith fogged us off. This
:16:45. > :16:48.week you said that jobless youngsters who won't take training
:16:49. > :16:57.will lose their welfare payments. How many young people are not in
:16:58. > :17:02.work training or education? There are 140,000 young people claiming
:17:03. > :17:09.benefits at the moment, but 850 000 young people who are not in work at
:17:10. > :17:16.the moment. This applies to around 100,000 young people. There are
:17:17. > :17:23.actually 975,000, 16-24 -year-olds, not in work, training or education.
:17:24. > :17:30.Your proposal only applies to 100,000 of them, why? This is
:17:31. > :17:36.applying to young people who are signing on for benefits rather than
:17:37. > :17:43.signing up for training. We want to make sure that all young people ..
:17:44. > :17:47.Why only 100,000? They are the ones currently getting job-seeker's
:17:48. > :18:00.allowance. We are saying you can not just sign up to... Can I get you to
:18:01. > :18:06.respond to this, the number of people not in work, training or
:18:07. > :18:16.education fell last year by more than you are planning to help. Long
:18:17. > :18:24.turn -- long-term unemployment is an entrenched problem... This issue
:18:25. > :18:30.about an entrenched group of young people. Young people who haven't got
:18:31. > :18:35.skills and are not in training we know are much less likely to get a
:18:36. > :18:41.job so there are 140,018-24 -year-olds signing onto benefits at
:18:42. > :18:45.the moment. This is about trying to address that problem to make sure
:18:46. > :18:51.all young people have the skills they need to get a job. Your policy
:18:52. > :18:55.is to take away part of the dole unless young unemployed people agree
:18:56. > :19:01.to study for level three qualifications, the equivalent of an
:19:02. > :19:09.AS-level or an NVQ but 40% of these people have the literary skills of a
:19:10. > :19:15.nine-year-old. After all that failed education, how are you going to
:19:16. > :19:19.train them to a level standard? We are saying that anyone who doesn't
:19:20. > :19:24.have that a level or equivalent qualification will be required to go
:19:25. > :19:30.back to college. We are not saying that within a year they have to get
:19:31. > :19:34.up to that level but these are exactly the sorts of people... These
:19:35. > :19:38.people have been failed by your education system. These people are,
:19:39. > :19:44.for the last four years, have been educated under a Conservative
:19:45. > :19:48.government. 18 - 21-year-olds, most of them have their education under a
:19:49. > :19:54.Labour government during which 300,000 people left with no GCSEs
:19:55. > :20:00.whatsoever. I don't understand how training for one year can do what 11
:20:01. > :20:04.years in school did not. We are not saying that within one year
:20:05. > :20:07.everybody will get up to a level three qualifications, but if you are
:20:08. > :20:11.one of those people who enters the Labour market age 18 with the
:20:12. > :20:19.reading skills of a nine-year-old, they are the sorts of people that
:20:20. > :20:26.should not the left languishing I went to college in Hackney if you
:20:27. > :20:31.you are -- a few weeks ago and there was a dyslexic boy studying painting
:20:32. > :20:35.and decorating. In school they decided he was a troublemaker and
:20:36. > :20:40.that he didn't want to learn. He went back to college because he
:20:41. > :20:45.wanted to get the skills. He said that it wasn't until he went back to
:20:46. > :20:49.college that he could pick up a newspaper and read it, it made a
:20:50. > :20:55.huge difference but too many people are let down by the system. I am
:20:56. > :21:00.wondering how the training will make up for an education system that
:21:01. > :21:05.failed them but let's move on to your leader. Look at this graph of
:21:06. > :21:10.Ed Miliband's popularity. This is the net satisfaction with him, it is
:21:11. > :21:17.dreadful. The trend continues to climb since he became leader of the
:21:18. > :21:20.Labour Party, why? What you have seen is another 2300 Labour
:21:21. > :21:25.councillors since Ed Miliband became the leader of the Labour Party. You
:21:26. > :21:33.saw in the elections a month ago that... Why is the satisfaction rate
:21:34. > :21:38.falling? We can look at polls or actual election results and the fact
:21:39. > :21:43.that we have got another 2000 Labour councillors, more people voting
:21:44. > :21:47.Labour, the opinion polls today show that if there was a general election
:21:48. > :21:55.today we would have a majority of more than 40, he must be doing
:21:56. > :22:00.something right. Why do almost 0% of voters want to replace him as
:22:01. > :22:07.leader? Why do 50% and more think that he is not up to the job? The
:22:08. > :22:13.more people see Ed Miliband, the less impressed they are. The British
:22:14. > :22:18.people seem to like him less. The election strategy I suggest that
:22:19. > :22:22.follows from that is that you should keep Ed Miliband under wraps until
:22:23. > :22:28.the election. Let's look at actually what happens when people get a
:22:29. > :22:32.chance to vote, when they get that opportunity we have seen more Labour
:22:33. > :22:39.councillors, more Labour members of the European Parliament...
:22:40. > :22:45.Oppositions always get more. The opinion polls today, one of them
:22:46. > :22:50.shows Labour four points ahead. You have not done that well in local
:22:51. > :22:56.government elections or European elections. Why don't people like
:22:57. > :23:01.him? I think we have done incredibly well in elections. People must like
:23:02. > :23:05.a lot of the things Labour and Ed Miliband are doing because we are
:23:06. > :23:09.winning back support across the country. We won local councils in
:23:10. > :23:15.places like Hammersmith and Fulham, Crawley, Hastings, key places that
:23:16. > :23:20.Labour need to win back at the general election next year. Even you
:23:21. > :23:26.have said traditional Labour supporters are abandoning the party.
:23:27. > :23:31.That is what Ed Miliband has said as well. We have got this real concern
:23:32. > :23:36.about what has happened. If you look at the elections in May, 60% of
:23:37. > :23:41.people didn't even bother going to vote. That is a profound issue not
:23:42. > :23:46.just for Labour. You said traditional voters who perhaps at
:23:47. > :23:51.times we took for granted are now being offered an alternative. Why
:23:52. > :23:57.did you take them for granted? This is what Ed Miliband said. I am not
:23:58. > :24:03.saying anything Ed Miliband himself has not said. When he ran for the
:24:04. > :24:07.leadership he said that we took too many people for granted and we
:24:08. > :24:11.needed to give people positive reasons to vote Labour, he has been
:24:12. > :24:15.doing that. He has been there for four years and you are saying you
:24:16. > :24:20.still take them for granted. Why? I am saying that for too long we have
:24:21. > :24:24.taken them for granted. We are on track to win the general election
:24:25. > :24:35.next year and that will defy all the odds. You are going to win... Ed
:24:36. > :24:39.Miliband will win next year and make a great Prime Minister.
:24:40. > :24:44.Now to the Liberal Democrats, at the risk of intruding into private
:24:45. > :24:48.grief. The party is still smarting from dire results in the European
:24:49. > :24:51.and Local Elections. The only poll Nick Clegg has won in recent times
:24:52. > :24:55.is to be voted the most unpopular leader of a party in modern British
:24:56. > :24:59.history. No surprise there have been calls for him to go, though that
:25:00. > :25:00.still looks unlikely. Here's Eleanor.
:25:01. > :25:05.Liberal Democrats celebrating, something we haven't seen for a
:25:06. > :25:11.while. This victory back in 199 led to a decade of power for the Lib
:25:12. > :25:16.Dems in Liverpool. What a contrast to the city's political landscape
:25:17. > :25:22.today. At its height the party had 69 local councillors, now down to
:25:23. > :25:26.just three. The scale of the challenge facing Nick Clegg and the
:25:27. > :25:31.Lib Dems is growing. The party is rock bottom in the polls,
:25:32. > :25:36.consistently in single figures. It was wiped out in the European
:25:37. > :25:42.elections losing all but one of its 12 MEPs and in the local elections
:25:43. > :25:49.it lost 42% of the seats that it was defending. But on Merseyside, Nick
:25:50. > :25:53.Clegg was putting on a brave face. We did badly in Liverpool,
:25:54. > :25:59.Manchester and London in particular, we did well in other places. But you
:26:00. > :26:04.are right, we did badly in some of those big cities and I have
:26:05. > :26:10.initiated a review, quite naturally, to understand what went
:26:11. > :26:14.wrong, what went right. As Lib Dems across the country get on with some
:26:15. > :26:19.serious soul-searching, there is an admission that his is the leader of
:26:20. > :26:24.the party who is failing to hit the right notes. Knocking on doors in
:26:25. > :26:30.Liverpool, I have to tell you that Nick Clegg is not a popular person.
:26:31. > :26:34.Some might use the word toxic and I find this very difficult because I
:26:35. > :26:39.know Nick very well and I see a principal person who passionately
:26:40. > :26:45.believes in what he is doing and he is a nice guy. As a result of his
:26:46. > :26:55.popularity, what has happened to the core vote? In parts of the country,
:26:56. > :26:59.we are down to just three councillors like Liverpool for
:27:00. > :27:02.example. You also lose the deliverers and fundraisers and the
:27:03. > :27:08.organisers and the members of course so all of that will have to be
:27:09. > :27:12.rebuilt. As they start fermenting process, local parties across the
:27:13. > :27:18.country and here in Liverpool have been voting on whether there should
:27:19. > :27:23.be a leadership contest. We had two choices to flush out and have a go
:27:24. > :27:27.at Nick Clegg or to positively decide we would sharpen up the
:27:28. > :27:32.campaign and get back on the streets, and by four to one ratio we
:27:33. > :27:38.decided to get back on the streets. We are bruised and battered but we
:27:39. > :27:43.are still here, the orange flag is still flying and one day it will fly
:27:44. > :27:49.over this building again, Liverpool town hall. But do people want the
:27:50. > :27:53.Lib Dems back in charge in this city? I certainly wouldn't vote for
:27:54. > :27:57.them. Their performance in Government and the way they have
:27:58. > :28:04.left their promises down, I could not vote for them again. I voted Lib
:28:05. > :28:10.Dem in the last election because of the university tuition fees and I
:28:11. > :28:14.would never vote for them again because they broke their promise.
:28:15. > :28:18.The Lib Dems are awful, broken promises and what have you. I
:28:19. > :28:22.wouldn't vote for them. This is the declaration of the results for the
:28:23. > :28:26.Northwest... Last month, as other party celebrated in the north-west,
:28:27. > :28:32.the Lib Dems here lost their only MEP, Chris Davies. Now there is
:28:33. > :28:39.concern the party doesn't know how to turn its fortunes around. We
:28:40. > :28:46.don't have an answer to that, if we did we would be grasping it with
:28:47. > :28:51.both hands. We will do our best to hold onto the places where we still
:28:52. > :28:56.have seats but as for the rest of the country where we have been
:28:57. > :29:00.hollowed out, we don't know how to start again until the next general
:29:01. > :29:02.election is out of the way. After their disastrous performance in the
:29:03. > :29:13.European elections, pressure is growing for the party to shift its
:29:14. > :29:18.stance. I think there has to be a lancing of the wound, there should
:29:19. > :29:24.in a referendum and the Liberal Democrats should be calling it. The
:29:25. > :29:30.rest of Europe once this because they are fed up with Britain being
:29:31. > :29:35.unable to make up its mind. The Lib Dems are now suffering the effects
:29:36. > :29:40.of being in Government. The party's problem, choosing the right course
:29:41. > :29:46.to regain political credibility We can now speak to form a Lib Dems
:29:47. > :29:51.leader Ming Campbell. Welcome back to the Sunday Politics. Even your
:29:52. > :29:58.own activists say that Nick Clegg is toxic. How will that change between
:29:59. > :30:03.now and the election? When you have had disappointing results, but you
:30:04. > :30:07.have to do is to rebuild. You pick yourself up and start all over
:30:08. > :30:12.again, and the reason why the Liberal Democrats got 57, 56 seats
:30:13. > :30:16.in the House of Commons now is because we picked ourselves up, we
:30:17. > :30:27.took every opportunity and we have rebuilt from the bottom up.
:30:28. > :30:30.least popular leader in modern history and more unpopular than your
:30:31. > :30:35.mate Gordon Brown. You are running out of time. No one believes that
:30:36. > :30:39.being the leader of a modern political party in the UK is an easy
:30:40. > :30:43.job. Both Ed Miliband and David Cameron must have had cause to
:30:44. > :30:47.think, over breakfast this morning, when they saw the headlines in some
:30:48. > :30:51.of the Sunday papers. Of course it is a difficult job but it was
:30:52. > :30:55.pointed out a moment or two ago that Nick Clegg is a man of principle and
:30:56. > :30:59.enormous resilience if you consider what he had to put up with, and in
:31:00. > :31:02.my view, he is quite clearly the person best qualified to lead the
:31:03. > :31:06.party between now and the general election and through the election
:31:07. > :31:11.campaign, and beyond. So why don't people like him? We have had to take
:31:12. > :31:15.some pretty difficult decisions and, of course, people didn't expect
:31:16. > :31:21.that. If you look back to the rather heady days of the rose garden behind
:31:22. > :31:25.ten Downing St, people thought it was all going to be sweetness and
:31:26. > :31:29.light, but the fact is, we didn t know then what we know now, about
:31:30. > :31:33.the extent of the economic crisis we win, and a lot of difficult
:31:34. > :31:38.decisions have had to be taken in order to restore economic stability.
:31:39. > :31:43.Look around you. You will see we are not there yet but we are a long way
:31:44. > :31:50.better off than in 2010. You are not getting the credit for it, the
:31:51. > :31:55.Tories are. We will be a little more assertive about taking the credit.
:31:56. > :31:59.For example, the fact that 23 million people have had a tax cut of
:32:00. > :32:02.?800 per year and we have taken 2 million people out of paying tax
:32:03. > :32:07.altogether. Ming Campbell, your people say that on every programme
:32:08. > :32:12.like this. Because it is true. That might be the case, but you are at
:32:13. > :32:14.seven or 8% in the polls, and nobody is listening, or they don't believe
:32:15. > :32:22.it. Once is listening, or they don't believe
:32:23. > :32:26.doubt that what we have achieved will be much more easily
:32:27. > :32:29.recognised, and there is no doubt, for example, in some of the recent
:32:30. > :32:31.polls, like the Ashcroft Pole, something like 30% of those polled
:32:32. > :32:39.said that as a result at the next something like 30% of those polled
:32:40. > :32:42.general election, they would prepare their to be a coalition involving
:32:43. > :32:48.the Liberal Democrats. So there is no question that the whole notion of
:32:49. > :32:53.coalition is still very much a live one, and one which we have made work
:32:54. > :32:56.in the public interest. The problem is people don't think that. People
:32:57. > :33:00.see you trying to have your cake and eat it. On the one hand you want to
:33:01. > :33:04.get your share of the credit for the turnaround in the economy, on the
:33:05. > :33:07.other hand you can't stop yourself from distancing yourself from the
:33:08. > :33:15.Tories and things that you did not like happening. You are trying to
:33:16. > :33:15.face both ways at once. If you remember our fellow Scotsman
:33:16. > :33:28.famously said you cannot ride both remember our fellow Scotsman
:33:29. > :33:28.to the terms -- terms of the remember our fellow Scotsman
:33:29. > :33:32.coalition agreement, which is what we signed up to in 2010. In
:33:33. > :33:36.addition, in furtherance of that agreement, we have created things
:33:37. > :33:40.like the pupil premium and the others I mentioned and you were
:33:41. > :33:43.rather dismissive. I'm not dismissive, I'm just saying they
:33:44. > :33:47.don't make a difference to what people think of you. We will do
:33:48. > :33:52.everything in our power to change that between now and May 2015. The
:33:53. > :33:58.interesting thing is, going back to the Ashcroft result, it demonstrated
:33:59. > :34:03.clearly that in constituencies where we have MPs and we are well dug in,
:34:04. > :34:09.we are doing everything that the public expects of us, and we are
:34:10. > :34:14.doing very well indeed. You aren't sure fellow Lib Dems have been
:34:15. > :34:17.saying this for you -- you and your fellow Liberal Dems have been saying
:34:18. > :34:21.this for a year or 18 months, and since then you have lost all of your
:34:22. > :34:25.MEPs apart from one, you lost your deposit in a by-election, you lost
:34:26. > :34:30.310 councillor, including everyone in Manchester or Islington. Mr Clegg
:34:31. > :34:37.leading you into the next general election will be the equivalent of
:34:38. > :34:42.the charge of the light Brigade I doubt that very much. The
:34:43. > :34:46.implication behind that lit you rehearsed is that we should pack our
:34:47. > :34:51.tents in the night and steal away. -- that litany. And if you heard in
:34:52. > :34:54.that piece that preceded the discussion, people were saying, look
:34:55. > :35:09.we have to start from the bottom and have to rebuild. That is exactly
:35:10. > :35:13.what we will do. Nine months is a period of gestation. As you well
:35:14. > :35:18.know. I wouldn't dismiss it quite so easily as that. I'm not here to say
:35:19. > :35:22.we had a wonderful result or anything like it, but what I do say
:35:23. > :35:26.is that the party is determined to turn it round, and that Nick Clegg
:35:27. > :35:31.is the person best qualified to do it. Should your party adopt a
:35:32. > :35:36.referendum about in or out on Europe? No, we should stick to the
:35:37. > :35:40.coalition agreement. If there is any transfer of power from Westminster
:35:41. > :35:46.to Brussels, that will be subject to a referendum. No change. And
:35:47. > :35:52.finally, as a Lib Dem, you must be glad you are not fighting the next
:35:53. > :35:57.election yourself? I've fought every election since 1974, so I've had a
:35:58. > :36:02.few experiences, some good, some bad, but the one thing I have done
:36:03. > :36:05.and the one thing a lot of other people have done is that they have
:36:06. > :36:07.stuck to the task, and that is what will happen in May 2015. Ming
:36:08. > :36:11.Campbell, thank you for joining us. It's just gone 11.35am, you're
:36:12. > :36:13.watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:36:14. > :36:16.in Scotland who leave us now UKIP's newest MEP heads to Brussels
:36:17. > :36:31.and gives us her reaction. It is a little overwhelming
:36:32. > :36:39.in the sheer size of it. And how about a bank holidax
:36:40. > :36:42.on Election Day to encouragd you to We will be looking at the
:36:43. > :36:48.students who have come up whth 00 The other proposal, that I like
:36:49. > :36:52.is a bank holiday for everybody I am sure that will go
:36:53. > :36:56.down really well. Generally the politicians
:36:57. > :37:00.are rubbish in this country. the Conservative MP for Sherwood,
:37:01. > :37:09.Mark Spencer, and Labour's LP First let's take a look
:37:10. > :37:14.at an issue that is never f`r from the headlines ` the st`te
:37:15. > :37:16.of the National Health Servhce. The funding of our hospitals is far
:37:17. > :37:19.from healthy, according to figures In fact, the finances of thd seven
:37:20. > :37:26.NHS Trusts in the East Midl`nds are Four of them are in debt to
:37:27. > :37:34.the tune of nearly ?90 millhon. University Hospitals of Leicester
:37:35. > :37:37.NHS Trust has the dubious honour of being the worst in the country, with
:37:38. > :37:42.a deficit of nearly ?40 million United Lincolnshire Hospitals NHS
:37:43. > :37:46.Trust is next, Then Sherwood Forest Hospit`ls NHS
:37:47. > :37:54.Foundation Trust, with nearly ?18 million, and finally
:37:55. > :37:59.Derby Hospitals NHS Foundathon Some pretty alarming figures
:38:00. > :38:32.in there and the East Midlands Some of it is down to the enormous
:38:33. > :38:36.PFIs. The repayments can be huge. The Government is increasing the
:38:37. > :38:41.funding that is going into the NHS. Some of them are in special measures
:38:42. > :38:45.and are coming out the other side and improving.
:38:46. > :38:47.Isn't some of this a hangovdr from the Public Finance Initiatives
:38:48. > :38:50.that Labour were so keen on, which has saddled some
:38:51. > :39:00.One in ten Trusts used to bd in deficit, but now it is one hn three.
:39:01. > :39:07.The pressure is on the NHS have never been greater. They ard not
:39:08. > :39:11.enough GPs. There are peopld in hospital who cannot get out even
:39:12. > :39:16.though they are set to get out. The whole system is under presstre. It
:39:17. > :39:23.is the same old story, you cannot Trust the Tories with the NHS. I
:39:24. > :39:30.think that is rubbish. Therd is a challenge in the NHS and we are
:39:31. > :39:32.getting older. We are finding more drugs to help people and it is
:39:33. > :39:33.becoming more expensive. Will the government
:39:34. > :39:41.bail`out these Trusts? We have to see how they are managed.
:39:42. > :39:48.It is not about throwing cash at then. We might need to put hn new
:39:49. > :39:59.management. If you look at the NHS in Wales, in Labour's control, it is
:40:00. > :40:04.much worse. This is anecdot`l. Mark is saying it must be the management.
:40:05. > :40:07.But they were talking about too many managers and getting rid of all the
:40:08. > :40:18.managers and now we have a management crisis. What would Labour
:40:19. > :40:25.do? Where would you find thd money? We would get rid of the competition.
:40:26. > :40:30.There is a lot of money in the NHS being spent in lawyers. We can get
:40:31. > :40:37.rid of the competition and spend that money on more GP appointments.
:40:38. > :40:40.People there are going to bd worried this has a knock`on effect
:40:41. > :40:50.You can see what they can do in Wales. They are making a mess of it.
:40:51. > :40:56.It is worse than in England. We also have
:40:57. > :40:58.the biggest debt`ridden Trust in the The PFIs signed by the prevhous
:40:59. > :41:18.Government is the problem. Next,
:41:19. > :41:20.the fall`out from the recent local After losing their only MEP in
:41:21. > :41:23.the region, and dropping thousands of votes in the Newark by`election,
:41:24. > :41:26.some Liberal Democrats in the We will be hearing from thel
:41:27. > :41:30.in a moment. At the same time,
:41:31. > :41:32.UKIP's newly elected MEPs h`ve been Jane Dodge reports
:41:33. > :41:35.on the impressions of the Arriving in Brussels, suitc`se
:41:36. > :41:42.in hand, Margot Parker is not For a party that she has only been
:41:43. > :41:51.a member of for the last five But she has been here beford `
:41:52. > :41:56.she worked for Brussels lobbying It was that experience that
:41:57. > :42:02.led to her becoming an MEP. I went into politics
:42:03. > :42:08.because I was so shocked, after a number of years, about
:42:09. > :42:13.a number of legislation dirdctives. I realised that we have
:42:14. > :42:16.no influence at all. What are her first
:42:17. > :42:19.impressions coming back? It has trebled since I first
:42:20. > :42:23.came here, many years ago. It is a little overwhelming
:42:24. > :42:33.in the sheer size of it. Time to go
:42:34. > :42:36.and meet her new colleagues. It is the first time that all
:42:37. > :42:39.of UKIP's new recruits have got together in Brussels
:42:40. > :42:42.and there is a lot to learn. More difficult, less effecthve, less
:42:43. > :42:47.profitable by European regulation... The EU is to blame `
:42:48. > :42:51.that is UKIP's central mess`ge. Margot is focusing on its ilpact
:42:52. > :42:55.on the economy. I have just been elected by a large
:42:56. > :42:58.number of people who are worried about immigration, because they are
:42:59. > :43:03.worried about having no jobs. There is
:43:04. > :43:07.a very unlevel playing field and I I would
:43:08. > :43:12.like to be able to do something At least, I can raise the issues
:43:13. > :43:15.and rattle the cage. She will get the keys to her office
:43:16. > :43:19.next month and intends to dddicate her time in Brussels to getting
:43:20. > :43:25.herself, and the UK, out of it. Well, UKIP are riding high `fter
:43:26. > :43:28.the local and European elections. But the same cannot be said for the
:43:29. > :43:32.Lib Dems, who lost their only MEP I am joined now
:43:33. > :43:38.by their defeated candidate in the He came sixth in one of the party's
:43:39. > :43:44.worst ever by`election results. You did not have a single Lhb Dem MP
:43:45. > :43:50.join you on the campaign tr`il. Were you, in effect,
:43:51. > :44:02.abandoned by your party? No. We knew it was going to be a
:44:03. > :44:08.difficult campaign. We knew it was going to be down to the loc`l
:44:09. > :44:18.people. We were not expecting huge support from the National m`chine.
:44:19. > :44:26.If I were you not expecting that? We did not expect to when in Ndwark. If
:44:27. > :44:30.the Conservatives had not won it would have been a major problem for
:44:31. > :44:32.them. We knew that they werd going to win.
:44:33. > :44:38.What were people saying to xou on the doorstep about your party?
:44:39. > :44:47.I was telling people on the doorstep what we stood for and Helen then ``
:44:48. > :45:02.and I was telling them what we have achieved in Government. What were
:45:03. > :45:03.people saying to you? It is not a good result, but we will botnce
:45:04. > :45:05.back. Once upon a time,
:45:06. > :45:08.you would have expected dis`ffected But there is plenty of anecdotal
:45:09. > :45:23.evidence they voted Conserv`tive That may be the case in that
:45:24. > :45:28.particular seat. The collapse in the Liberal Democrats is absolutely
:45:29. > :45:41.stunning. It is unfortunate for people like David who are ldft to
:45:42. > :45:45.carry on. There is a growth in the gap between the rich and poor. And
:45:46. > :45:49.tuition fees, but that is jtst a tiny part of it. There is no one
:45:50. > :45:52.left to support the Liberal Democrats.
:45:53. > :45:54.If that is true about Lib Ddms voting Tory in Newark,
:45:55. > :45:57.then the number of traditional Conservative voters who desdrted you
:45:58. > :46:21.I think we had the best candidate and the randy best campaign. `` ran
:46:22. > :46:25.the best campaign. They needed a swing.
:46:26. > :46:28.As if things were not bad enough for the Lib Dems, members in
:46:29. > :46:31.Nottingham held a special mdeting this week and voted overwhelmingly
:46:32. > :46:34.Here is what one of them, Tony Sutton,
:46:35. > :46:37.a former Liberal Democrat councillor who lost his seat, had to s`y.
:46:38. > :46:40.On the doorsteps, we contintally get the complaint ` "yes I used to vote
:46:41. > :46:44.Lib Dem, but I will not votd for you again because you cannot be trusted.
:46:45. > :46:46.The reason that you cannot be trusted is that you broke
:46:47. > :46:53.That has become almost shorthand for saying that politicians cannot
:46:54. > :46:58.In the same way that Tony Blair will always be remembered for thd Iraq
:46:59. > :47:03.war, in the same way that Margaret Thatcher is remembdred for
:47:04. > :47:06.the poll tax, Nick Clegg will always be remembered for the tuition fees
:47:07. > :47:12.Tony Sutton from the Liberal Democrats.
:47:13. > :47:26.No. If we change leader now it will look like panic. We have achieved a
:47:27. > :47:33.lot in Government. A lot of our manifesto has been put into action.
:47:34. > :47:35.There are better pensions, the pupil premium, these are things that we
:47:36. > :47:37.have done. What effect will meetings
:47:38. > :48:00.like this have on the party? There have been a number of meetings
:48:01. > :48:18.like this. People are concerned Everyone realises that Nick Clegg
:48:19. > :48:24.has been a good leader. We do not want to go into election panicking.
:48:25. > :48:27.We have worked in the national interest. I believe that voters will
:48:28. > :48:29.come back to us. There are calls in your party for a
:48:30. > :48:40.new leader to replace Ed Miliband? I am not aware of any seriots voices
:48:41. > :48:44.calling for that. In terms of the Liberal Democrats, there is no point
:48:45. > :48:50.in keeping the reader and kdeping the same policies. The Liberal
:48:51. > :48:59.Democrats do not seem to know why they are losing. We know th`t there
:49:00. > :49:11.is an issue of Trust. We have accepted that. We have not been
:49:12. > :49:21.forgiven, but we have not got our message out strong enough. We have
:49:22. > :49:25.to make sure that people know. Labour are ahead in the polls. We
:49:26. > :49:35.wish that we were further ahead but I think we are feeling confhdent and
:49:36. > :49:39.most of the big issues. Ed Liliband has called it correctly and I have
:49:40. > :49:43.confidence in him. Are people going to vote
:49:44. > :49:57.on your record or David Camdron s? A bit of both. We will go ott and
:49:58. > :50:01.bang on doors. Hopefully I can convince people to support le.
:50:02. > :50:03.Now, how about a bank holiday to hold elections?
:50:04. > :50:07.Well, students at Leicester's De Lontfort
:50:08. > :50:10.University have come up with 10 radical ideas to change Britain
:50:11. > :50:12.The proposals include giving elections a Mardi Gras feel,
:50:13. > :50:15.by bringing in a bank holid`y for voters and holding them over
:50:16. > :50:20.Tax cuts for people who do volunteer work.
:50:21. > :50:22.Developing a sense of Britishness and holding a National Migr`nts Day
:50:23. > :50:29.On the economy, the students want to abolish zero`hours contracts
:50:30. > :50:32.and have local currencies in towns and cities to make people
:50:33. > :50:39.They also want to see 250,000 new homes built and a National Festival
:50:40. > :50:47.Well, joining us now is De Lontfort University student Hazra Debar,
:50:48. > :51:08.The University give us an opportunity to come up with policy
:51:09. > :51:13.ideas. The Vice Chancellor wanted to address this issue. There is a
:51:14. > :51:16.misconception that young people are not interested in politics.
:51:17. > :51:20.Did you think there was something that needed fixing?
:51:21. > :51:31.Definitely. We were given the issues and we did research before we came
:51:32. > :51:32.up with the policies. We thought these were the policies that were
:51:33. > :51:50.needed. I think a lot of the ideas `re good
:51:51. > :51:54.and some of them are quite radical. I think that photographs of
:51:55. > :51:59.candidates on ballot papers would be interesting. It is brilliant that
:52:00. > :52:02.young people are getting involved. The young people I meet are pretty
:52:03. > :52:04.enthusiastic. A bank holiday for elections...
:52:05. > :52:17.would that work? I think the main point was having a
:52:18. > :52:24.three the voting period. Yot would call for that? I think it is a good
:52:25. > :52:32.idea. I think we of voting hs a great idea. It stops the problem of
:52:33. > :52:47.us worrying when it rains on election day. The policies that we
:52:48. > :52:51.created we thought were practical and realistic.
:52:52. > :52:52.Well, they might seem radical polhcies
:52:53. > :52:57.So, what would make people more interested in voting?
:52:58. > :53:00.What about a National Immigration Day?
:53:01. > :53:09.The other proposal that I lhke is a bank holiday for everybodx.
:53:10. > :53:11.I'm sure that'll go down really well.
:53:12. > :53:13.I do vote, but generally the politicians are
:53:14. > :53:22.We are wondering what peopld think of those ideas, or if they
:53:23. > :53:30.Once they start telling the truth, the general public will start to
:53:31. > :53:34.support them ` or not, whatever the case may be.
:53:35. > :53:40.I think the parties need to make their policies easier to understand.
:53:41. > :53:43.I do not think they are understandable
:53:44. > :54:02.We feel like if we vote, ond vote will not make much of a difference.
:54:03. > :54:06.Personally, just the way th`t politics is run in this country
:54:07. > :54:10.They are always arguing and I cannot stand the whold House
:54:11. > :54:17.I think that the economic goals are not set out clearly,
:54:18. > :54:26.One of the most important things is getting jobs back for young people
:54:27. > :54:42.A lot of support for your ideas there ` are you pleased to see that?
:54:43. > :54:50.Yes. I am pleased to see thhs. The one issue that stood out to me is
:54:51. > :54:58.that young people thought they did not have a voice. I would lhke to
:54:59. > :55:04.ask these men, what do you think about youth engagement in politics?
:55:05. > :55:11.I think politicians need to go out of their way to engage with young
:55:12. > :55:16.people. From my perspective, one of the things that was clear from the
:55:17. > :55:21.film is that people said it do not understand the policies and think it
:55:22. > :55:26.is too obligated. That poses questions to ask in times of
:55:27. > :55:33.education and people coming out of school feeling so disconnected from
:55:34. > :55:43.it. We need to improve that engagement. It is a real ch`llenge.
:55:44. > :55:47.We need to communicate our lessage. I think we need to make surd that we
:55:48. > :56:00.can indicate our policies in a way that people understand the
:56:01. > :56:05.differences between the parties I am not from our politics background.
:56:06. > :56:10.But I was given this opporttnity and it was an amazing experiencd. If you
:56:11. > :56:17.give young people the opportunity they will speak out. What do
:56:18. > :56:22.politicians have to do to gdt more young people involved? I thhnk you
:56:23. > :56:31.need to interact with young people and speak to them. If you are out
:56:32. > :56:41.there and telling them that you are addressing issues and to support
:56:42. > :56:47.them, that would be good. I enjoy speaking to young people and having
:56:48. > :56:52.political debate. But there are still some problems with engagement?
:56:53. > :57:00.We are trying to get our yotth groups more active. One grotp made a
:57:01. > :57:07.film about politics and education. They are the voters of the future.
:57:08. > :57:10.You have compiled this report with 100 ideas for changing Brit`in,
:57:11. > :57:19.I would like policymakers to look at what we have just and see if they
:57:20. > :57:22.can apply them in their manhfestoes. Hazra Debar,
:57:23. > :57:24.thank you for joining us. Time for a round`up of some
:57:25. > :57:27.of the other political storhes The Ashfield MP, Gloria De Piero,
:57:28. > :57:36.came top in a parliamentary poll She responded to 93%
:57:37. > :57:39.of her messages from local people Bad news for bees in Rushclhffe
:57:40. > :57:46.where plastic flowers have replaced Rushcliffe Borough Council says
:57:47. > :57:55.it will save ?3,000 a year. The newly elected MP for Newark
:57:56. > :57:58.Robert Jenrick, has made his first contribution to the Commons in
:57:59. > :58:00.Prime Minister's Questions. He raised the problems
:58:01. > :58:07.of flooding in his constitudncy The people of Newark have enjoyed
:58:08. > :58:09.becoming better acquainted with I regret to inform the
:58:10. > :58:13.Prime Minister that the town of Southwell, in my constittency,
:58:14. > :58:20.was again flooded last week. He wants the same help for flooding
:58:21. > :58:23.victims in Nottinghamshire `s in the rest of the country,
:58:24. > :58:27.and he inadvertently stepped into the big debate ` is it pronounced
:58:28. > :58:59.'South`well' or 'South`el'? Some people said 'South`well' and
:59:00. > :59:08.other people said 'South`el'. What about you? It sounds like a
:59:09. > :59:12.Nottinghamshire question. While neither of you commit? You cannot
:59:13. > :59:16.win on those sorts of questhons Thanks to our guests,
:59:17. > :59:22.here in the East Midlands. information, you can apply to them
:59:23. > :59:24.and they will be obliged to tell you. Thanks for joining us. Andrew,
:59:25. > :59:43.back to you. think you'd want to. Labour grandees
:59:44. > :59:50.are not queueing up to sing his praises. Look at this. In my view,
:59:51. > :59:53.he is the leader we have and he is the leader I support and he is
:59:54. > :59:58.somebody capable of leading the party to victory. Ed Miliband will
:59:59. > :00:06.leave this to victory, and I believe he can. If he doesn't, what would
:00:07. > :00:09.happen to the Labour Party? We could be in the wilderness for 15 years.
:00:10. > :00:13.At the moment he has to convince people he has the capacity to lead
:00:14. > :00:19.the country. That's not my view but people don't believe that. We had a
:00:20. > :00:25.leader of the Labour Party was publicly embarrassed, because
:00:26. > :00:28.whoever was in charge of press letting go through a process where
:00:29. > :00:38.we have councillors in Merseyside resigning. It was a schoolboy error.
:00:39. > :00:46.Having policies without them being drawn together into a convincing and
:00:47. > :00:51.vivid narrative and with what you do the people in the country. You have
:00:52. > :00:57.to draw together, connect the policies, link them back to the
:00:58. > :01:07.leader and give people a real sense of where you are going. Somehow he
:01:08. > :01:12.has never quite managed to be himself and create that identity
:01:13. > :01:15.with the public. And we are joined by the president of you girls, Peter
:01:16. > :01:26.Kellner. Welcome to the Sunday politics. -- YouGov. The Labour
:01:27. > :01:30.Party is six points ahead in your poll this morning. So what is the
:01:31. > :01:35.problem? On this basis he will win the next election. If the election
:01:36. > :01:40.were today and the figures held up, you would have a Labour government
:01:41. > :01:44.with a narrow overall majority. One should not forget that. Let me make
:01:45. > :01:49.three points. The first is, in past parliaments, opposition normally
:01:50. > :01:55.lose ground and governments gain ground in the final few months. The
:01:56. > :02:01.opposition should be further ahead than this. I don't think six is
:02:02. > :02:04.enough. Secondly, Ed Miliband is behind David Cameron when people are
:02:05. > :02:08.asked who they want as Prime Minister and Labour is behind the
:02:09. > :02:11.Conservatives went people are asked who they trust on the economy. There
:02:12. > :02:14.have been elections when the party has won by being behind on
:02:15. > :02:19.leadership and other elections where they have won by being behind on the
:02:20. > :02:22.economy. No party has ever won an election when it has been clearly
:02:23. > :02:28.behind on both leadership and the economy. Let me have another go The
:02:29. > :02:32.Labour Party brand is a strong brand. The Tory Bramleys week. The
:02:33. > :02:42.Labour brand is stronger. That is a blast -- the Labour -- the Tory
:02:43. > :02:50.Bramleys week. A lot of the Tories -- the Tory brand is weak. Cant you
:02:51. > :02:56.win on policies and a strong party brand? If you have those too, you
:02:57. > :03:02.need the third factor which isn t there. People believing that you
:03:03. > :03:04.have what it takes, competent skills, determination,
:03:05. > :03:14.determination, whatever makes to carry through. -- whatever mix. A
:03:15. > :03:18.lot of Ed Miliband policies, on the banks, energy prices, Brent
:03:19. > :03:22.controls, people like them. But in government, would they carry them
:03:23. > :03:27.through? They think they are not up to it. -- rent controls. If people
:03:28. > :03:31.think you won't deliver what you say, even if they like it, they were
:03:32. > :03:36.necessarily vote for you. That is the missing third element. There is
:03:37. > :03:40.a strong Labour brand, but it's not strong enough to overcome the
:03:41. > :03:47.feeling that the Labour leadership is not up to it. Nick, you had some
:03:48. > :03:50.senior Labour figure telling you that if Mr Miliband losing the next
:03:51. > :03:53.election he will have to resign immediately and cannot fight another
:03:54. > :03:58.election the way Neil Kinnock did after 1987. What was remarkable to
:03:59. > :04:02.me was that people were even thinking along these lines, and even
:04:03. > :04:08.more remarkable that they would tell you they were thinking along these
:04:09. > :04:14.lines? What is the problem? The problem is, is that Ed Miliband says
:04:15. > :04:18.it would be unprecedented to win the general election after the second
:04:19. > :04:22.worst result since 1918. They are concerned about is the start of a
:04:23. > :04:24.script that he would say on the day after losing the general election.
:04:25. > :04:29.Essentially what the people are trying to do is get their argument
:04:30. > :04:33.in first and to say, you cannot do what Neil Kinnock did in 1987. Don't
:04:34. > :04:36.forget that Neil Kinnock in 198 was in the middle of a very brave
:04:37. > :04:42.process of modernisation and had one and fought a very campaign that was
:04:43. > :04:47.professional but he lost again in 1992, and they wanted to get their
:04:48. > :04:52.line in first. What some people are saying is that this is an election
:04:53. > :04:55.that the Labour Party should be winning because the coalition is so
:04:56. > :04:59.unpopular. If you don't win, I'm afraid to say, there is something
:05:00. > :05:02.wrong with you. Don't you find it remarkable that people are prepared
:05:03. > :05:05.to think along these lines at this stage, when Labour are ahead in the
:05:06. > :05:10.polls, still the bookies favourite to win, and you start to speak
:05:11. > :05:15.publicly, or in private to the public print, but we might have to
:05:16. > :05:18.get rid of him if he doesn't win. Everything you say about labour in
:05:19. > :05:22.this situation has been said about the Tories. We wondered whether
:05:23. > :05:26.Boris Johnson would tie himself to the mask and he is the next leader
:05:27. > :05:30.in waiting if Cameron goes. It's a mirror image of that. We talk about
:05:31. > :05:33.things being unprecedented. It's unprecedented for a government to
:05:34. > :05:37.gain seats. All the things you say about labour, you could say it the
:05:38. > :05:41.Conservatives. That's what makes the next election so interesting. But in
:05:42. > :05:44.the aftermath of the European elections and the local government
:05:45. > :05:48.elections, in which the Conservatives did not do that well,
:05:49. > :05:51.the issue was not Mr Cameron or the Tories doing well, the issue was the
:05:52. > :05:54.Labour Party and how they had not done as well as they should have
:05:55. > :05:58.done, and that conversation was fuelled by the kind of people who
:05:59. > :06:03.have been speaking to nick from the Labour Party. Rachel Reeves cited
:06:04. > :06:07.their real-life performance in elections as a reason for optimism.
:06:08. > :06:11.When in fact their performance in the Europeans and locals was
:06:12. > :06:15.disappointing for an opposition one year away from a general election.
:06:16. > :06:20.What alarms me about labour is the way they react to criticisms about
:06:21. > :06:23.Ed Miliband. Two years ago when he was attacked, they said they were 15
:06:24. > :06:26.points ahead, and then a year ago there were saying they were nine or
:06:27. > :06:32.ten ahead, and now they are saying we are still five or six ahead. The
:06:33. > :06:37.trend is alarming. It points to a smaller Labour lead. Am I right in
:06:38. > :06:43.detecting a bit of a class war going on in the Labour Party? There are a
:06:44. > :06:46.lot of northern Labour MPs who think that Ed Miliband is to north London,
:06:47. > :06:54.and there are too many metropolitan cronies around him must I think that
:06:55. > :06:57.is right, Andrew. What I think is, being a pessimist in terms of their
:06:58. > :07:02.prospects, I do think the Labour Party could win the next election. I
:07:03. > :07:06.just don't think they can as they are going at the moment. But the
:07:07. > :07:13.positioning for a possible defeat, what they should be talking about is
:07:14. > :07:16.what do we need to change in the party and the way Ed Miliband
:07:17. > :07:20.performs in order to secure victory. That is a debate they could have,
:07:21. > :07:27.and they could make the changes I find it odd that they are being so
:07:28. > :07:30.defeatist. Don't go away. Peter is a boffin when it comes to polls. That
:07:31. > :07:35.is why we have a mod for the election prediction swings and
:07:36. > :07:41.roundabouts. He is looking for what he calls the incumbency effect.
:07:42. > :07:45.Don't know what is a back-up -- what that's about question don't worry,
:07:46. > :07:54.here is an. Being in office is bad for your health. Political folk
:07:55. > :07:59.wisdom has it that incumbency favours one party in particular the
:08:00. > :08:03.Liberal Democrats. That is because their MPs have a reputation as
:08:04. > :08:07.ferociously good local campaigners who do really well at holding on to
:08:08. > :08:11.their seats. However, this time round, several big-name long serving
:08:12. > :08:18.Liberal Democrats like Ming Campbell, David Heath and Don Foster
:08:19. > :08:21.are standing down. Does that mean the incumbency effect disappears
:08:22. > :08:27.like a puff of smoke? Then there is another theory, called the sophomore
:08:28. > :08:31.surge. It might sound like a movie about US college kids, but it goes
:08:32. > :08:35.like this. New MPs tend to do better in their second election than they
:08:36. > :08:39.did in their first. That could favour the Tories because they have
:08:40. > :08:44.lots of first-time MPs. The big question is, what does this mean for
:08:45. > :08:52.the 7th of May 2015, the date of the next general election? The answer
:08:53. > :08:59.is, who knows? I know a man who knows. Peter. What does it all mean?
:09:00. > :09:03.You can go onto your PC now and draw down programmes which say that these
:09:04. > :09:07.are the voting figures from a national poll, so what will the
:09:08. > :09:10.seats look like? This is based on uniform swing. Every seat moving up
:09:11. > :09:16.and down across the country in the same way. Historically, that's been
:09:17. > :09:20.a pretty good guide. I think that's going to completely break down next
:09:21. > :09:23.year, because the Lib Dems will probably hold on to more seats than
:09:24. > :09:29.we predict from the national figures and I think fewer Tory seats will go
:09:30. > :09:34.to the Labour Party than you would predict from the national figures.
:09:35. > :09:38.The precise numbers, I'm not going to be too precise, but I would be
:09:39. > :09:44.surprised, sorry, I would not be surprised if Labour fell 20 or 5
:09:45. > :09:51.seats short on what we would expect on the uniform swing prediction
:09:52. > :09:53.Next year's election will be tight. Falling 20 seats short could well
:09:54. > :10:00.mean the difference between victory and defeat. What you make of that,
:10:01. > :10:04.Helen? I think you're right, especially taking into account the
:10:05. > :10:07.UKIP effect. We have no idea about that. The conventional wisdom is
:10:08. > :10:12.that will drain away back to the Conservatives, but nobody knows and
:10:13. > :10:16.it makes the next election almost impossible to call. It means it is a
:10:17. > :10:19.great target the people like Lord Ashcroft with marginal polling,
:10:20. > :10:24.because people have never been so interested. It is for party politics
:10:25. > :10:31.and we all assume that UKIP should be well next year, but their vote
:10:32. > :10:36.went up from 17 up to 27%. Then that 17% went down to 3%, so they might
:10:37. > :10:39.only be five or 6% in the general election, so they might not have the
:10:40. > :10:44.threat of depriving Conservatives of their seats. Where the incumbency
:10:45. > :10:50.thing has an effect is the Liberal Democrats. They have fortress seats
:10:51. > :10:54.where between 1992 and 1997 Liberal Democrats seats fell, but their
:10:55. > :10:58.percentage went up. They are losing the local government base though.
:10:59. > :11:02.True, but having people like Ming Campbell standing down means they
:11:03. > :11:05.will struggle. We are used to incumbency being an important factor
:11:06. > :11:10.in American politics. It's hard to get rid of an incumbent unless it is
:11:11. > :11:14.a primary election, like we saw in Virginia, but is it now becoming an
:11:15. > :11:18.important factor in British politics, that if you own the seat
:11:19. > :11:23.you're more likely to hold on to it than not? If it is, that's a
:11:24. > :11:26.remarkable thing. It's hard to be a carpetbagger in America, but it is
:11:27. > :11:30.normal in British Parliamentary constituencies to be represented by
:11:31. > :11:34.someone who did not grow up locally. It is a special kind of achievement
:11:35. > :11:37.to have an incumbency effect where you don't have deep roots in the
:11:38. > :11:41.constituency. I was going to ask about the Lib Dems. If we are wrong,
:11:42. > :11:44.and they collapse in Parliamentary representation as much as the share
:11:45. > :11:49.in vote collapses, is that not good news is that the Conservatives? They
:11:50. > :11:53.would be in second place in the majority of existing Lib Dems seats.
:11:54. > :11:56.For every seat where Labour are second to the Lib Dems, there are
:11:57. > :12:00.two where the Conservatives are second. If the Lib Dem
:12:01. > :12:08.representation collapses, that helps the Conservatives. I'm assuming the
:12:09. > :12:13.Tories will gain about ten seats. If they gain 20, if they'd had 20 more
:12:14. > :12:17.seats last time, they would have had a majority government, just about.
:12:18. > :12:22.So 20 seats off the Lib Dem, do the maths, as they say in America, and
:12:23. > :12:26.they could lose a handful to labour and still be able to run a one
:12:27. > :12:29.party, minority government. The fate of the Lib Dems could be crucial to
:12:30. > :12:36.the outcome to the politics of light. On the 8th of May, it will be
:12:37. > :12:41.VE Day and victory in election day as well as Europe. The Lib Dems will
:12:42. > :12:46.be apoplectic if they lose all of the seats to their coalition
:12:47. > :12:51.partners. The great quote by Angela Merkel, the little party always gets
:12:52. > :12:54.crushed. It's a well-established idea that coalition politics. They
:12:55. > :12:57.can't take credit for the things people like you may get lumbered
:12:58. > :13:01.with the ones they don't. They have contributed most of this terrible
:13:02. > :13:04.idea that seized politics where you say it, but you don't deliver it.
:13:05. > :13:10.Tuition fees is the classic example of this Parliament. Why should you
:13:11. > :13:14.believe any promise you make? And Ed Miliband is feeling that as well.
:13:15. > :13:19.But in 1974 the liberal Democrats barely had any MPs but there were
:13:20. > :13:22.reporters outside Jeremy Thorpe s home because they potentially held
:13:23. > :13:26.not the balance of power, but were significantly in fourth. Bringing
:13:27. > :13:30.back memories Jeremy Thorpe, and we will leave it there. Thanks to the
:13:31. > :13:34.panel. We are tomorrow on BBC Two. At the earlier time of 11am because
:13:35. > :13:39.of Wimbledon. Yes, it's that time of year again already. I will be back
:13:40. > :13:42.here at 11 o'clock next week. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the
:13:43. > :13:46.Sunday Politics.