14/09/2014

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:00:37. > :00:43.Welcome to the Sunday Politics, coming to you live from Edinburgh.

:00:44. > :00:45.Terrorists who use the name Islamic State have carried out

:00:46. > :00:53.their threat to murder the British aid worker, David Haines.

:00:54. > :00:56.They released a video late last night, showing a masked man

:00:57. > :01:02.beheading Mr Haines, who was taken captive in Syria 18 months ago.

:01:03. > :01:04.The jihadist group have already beheaded two American journalists.

:01:05. > :01:07.Now it's threatening the life of a second British hostage.

:01:08. > :01:12.David Cameron described the murder as an act of pure evil.

:01:13. > :01:16.President Obama said the US stood shoulder to shoulder

:01:17. > :01:23.Alex Salmond says Scotland "stands on the cusp of history" as

:01:24. > :01:25.he predicts a historic and substantial victory in

:01:26. > :01:34.As the latest polls show the two sides neck and neck,

:01:35. > :01:36.I'll ask Yes campaigner and socialist Tommy Sheridan about his

:01:37. > :01:44.And after last week's last-minute interventions from Gordon Brown

:01:45. > :01:46.David Cameron, Ed Miliband and big business, I'll ask

:01:47. > :01:57.In the East Midlands, we have the it's enough to win over waverers.

:01:58. > :01:59.In the East Midlands, we have the fastest`growing economy in the

:02:00. > :01:59.country but step closer back to Parliament. Is

:02:00. > :02:13.it a lame-duck administration? Late last night, as most folk were

:02:14. > :02:16.preparing for bed, news broke that Islamic State extremists had carried

:02:17. > :02:18.out their threat to murder the The group released a video, similar

:02:19. > :02:23.to the ones in which two American journalists were decapitated,

:02:24. > :02:25.showing a masked man apparently beheading Mr Haines who was taken

:02:26. > :02:29.captive in Syria last year. The terrorist,

:02:30. > :02:31.who has a southern British accent, also threatened the life

:02:32. > :02:35.of a second hostage from the UK Mr Haines is

:02:36. > :02:37.the third Westerner to be killed His family have paid tribute to

:02:38. > :02:42.his humanitarian work; they say he David Cameron described the murder

:02:43. > :02:49.as an act of pure evil, and said his heart went out to Mr Haines

:02:50. > :02:52.family, who had shown extraordinary Mr Cameron went on to say,

:02:53. > :03:02."We will do everything in our power to hunt down these murderers

:03:03. > :03:04.and ensure they face justice, Mr Haines was born in England

:03:05. > :03:09.and brought up in Scotland. Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond

:03:10. > :03:26.condemned the killing on the Marr Well, it's an act of unspeakable

:03:27. > :03:31.barbarism that we have seen. Obviously our condolences go to the

:03:32. > :03:33.family members of David Haynes who have borne this with such fortitude

:03:34. > :03:39.in recent months -- David Alex Salmond was also asked

:03:40. > :03:48.whether he supported military action Haines there is no reason to believe

:03:49. > :03:58.whatsoever that China or Russia or any country will see their will to

:03:59. > :04:00.deal with this barbarism. There is a will for effective, international,

:04:01. > :04:07.legal action but it must come in that fashion, and I would urge that

:04:08. > :04:09.to be a consideration to develop a collective response to what is a

:04:10. > :04:10.threat to humanity. Our security correspondent

:04:11. > :04:23.Gordon Corera joins me now Gordon, as we speak, the Cobra

:04:24. > :04:28.emergency meeting is meeting yet again. It meets a lot these days. I

:04:29. > :04:32.would suggest that the options facing this committee and Mr Cameron

:04:33. > :04:35.are pretty limited. That's right. I think they are extremely limited.

:04:36. > :04:41.They have been all along in these hostage situations. We know, for

:04:42. > :04:45.instance, that British government policy is not to pay ransom is to

:04:46. > :04:49.kidnappers. Other Europeans states are thought to have done so to get

:04:50. > :04:54.hostages released, and also not to make substantive policy concessions

:04:55. > :04:59.to the groups, so while there might be contact, there won't be a lot of

:05:00. > :05:07.options left. We know the US in the past has looked at rescue missions

:05:08. > :05:11.and in July on operation to free the hostages, landing at the oil

:05:12. > :05:16.facility in Syria but finding no one there. If you look at the options,

:05:17. > :05:23.they are not great. That is the difficult situation which Cobra will

:05:24. > :05:27.have been discussing the last hour. Does this make it more likely,

:05:28. > :05:32.because it might have the direction the government was going in any way,

:05:33. > :05:37.that we join with the Americans in perhaps the regional allies in air

:05:38. > :05:43.strikes against Islamic State, not just in Iraq, but also in Syria We

:05:44. > :05:46.heard from President Obama outlining his strategy against Islamic State

:05:47. > :05:50.last week when he talked about building a coalition, about

:05:51. > :05:56.authorising air strikes. And training troops. We are still

:05:57. > :06:03.waiting to hear what exact role the UK will play in that. We know it

:06:04. > :06:11.will play a role because it has been arming the fishmonger forces but the

:06:12. > :06:15.question is, will it actually conduct military strikes in Iraq --

:06:16. > :06:28.arming the passion are there. We have not got a clear answer from

:06:29. > :06:31.government and that is something where they are ours to discuss what

:06:32. > :06:35.was around the table. It's possible we might learn some more today as a

:06:36. > :06:39.result of the Cobra meeting, but I think the government will be wanting

:06:40. > :06:42.to not be seen to suddenly rushed to a completely different policy as a

:06:43. > :06:47.result of one incident, however terrible it is. Whether it hardens

:06:48. > :06:50.their reserve -- resolved to play more active role in the coalition,

:06:51. > :06:56.that's possible, but we have to wait see to get the detail. -- wait and

:06:57. > :07:02.see. What the whole country would like to see would be British and

:07:03. > :07:06.American special forces going in and getting these guys. I think that

:07:07. > :07:11.would unite the nation. But that is very difficult, isn't it? It is As

:07:12. > :07:15.you saw with a rescue mission a few months ago, the problem is getting

:07:16. > :07:18.actionable intelligence on the ground at a particular moment. The

:07:19. > :07:22.theory is that the group of kidnappers are moving the hostages

:07:23. > :07:26.may be even every or few days, so you need intelligence and quickly

:07:27. > :07:30.and then you need to be able to get the team onto the ground into that

:07:31. > :07:34.time frame. That is clearly a possibility and something they will

:07:35. > :07:38.be looking at, but it certainly challenging, particularly when you

:07:39. > :07:42.have a group like this operating within its own state, effectively,

:07:43. > :07:48.and knowing that other people are looking very hard for it and doing

:07:49. > :07:50.everything they can to hide. Gordon, thank you very much.

:07:51. > :07:55.Clegg dropped everything and headed to Scotland when a poll last Sunday

:07:56. > :08:01.gave the YES vote its first ever lead in this prolonged referendum

:08:02. > :08:04.If their reaction looked like panic, that's because it was.

:08:05. > :08:06.Until last weekend, though the polls had been narrowing,

:08:07. > :08:09.the consensus was still that NO would carry the day.

:08:10. > :08:18.The new consensus is that it's too close to call.

:08:19. > :08:25.If we look back at the beginning of the year, public opinion in Scotland

:08:26. > :08:28.was fairly settled. The no campaign had a commanding lead across the

:08:29. > :08:32.opinion polls, excluding the undecided voters. At one point, at

:08:33. > :08:39.the end of last year, an average of 63% backed the no campaign and only

:08:40. > :08:44.37% supported a yes vote. As we move into 2014 and up to this week, you

:08:45. > :08:48.can see a clear trend emerging as the lead for the no campaign gets

:08:49. > :08:51.narrower and narrower and the average of the most recent polls has

:08:52. > :08:55.the contest hanging in the balance. There was a poll a week ago that put

:08:56. > :09:01.the Yes campaign in the lead for the first time, 51% against 49%, but

:09:02. > :09:06.that lead was not reflected in the other polls last week. For polls

:09:07. > :09:17.were published last night, one by Salvation, for the macro-2 campaign

:09:18. > :09:21.-- Better Together campaign, and there was another that gave a one

:09:22. > :09:27.percentage point different. ICM have the yes campaign back in the lead at

:09:28. > :09:33.54% and the no campaign at 46%, but their sample size was 705 Scottish

:09:34. > :09:41.adults, smaller than usual. Another suggests that the contest remains on

:09:42. > :09:47.a knife edge with 49.4% against 50.6%. When fed into the poll of

:09:48. > :09:54.polls the figures average out with yes at 49% and polls -- no at 5 %.

:09:55. > :09:58.But some people think 18% are undecided, and it is how they vote

:09:59. > :09:59.gets -- when they get to the polling booths that could make all the

:10:00. > :10:01.difference. campaigner and Respect Party MP

:10:02. > :10:10.George Galloway. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. Big

:10:11. > :10:13.business, big oil, big banks, the Tories, the Orange order, all

:10:14. > :10:18.against Scottish independence. You sure you are on right side? Yes

:10:19. > :10:22.because the interests of working people are in staying together. This

:10:23. > :10:26.is a troubled moment in a marriage, a very long marriage, in which some

:10:27. > :10:31.good things and bad things have been achieved together. And there is no

:10:32. > :10:34.doubt that the crockery is being thrown around the house of the

:10:35. > :10:38.minute. But I believe that the underlying interests of working

:10:39. > :10:42.people are on working on the relationship rather than divorce. I

:10:43. > :10:46.have been divorced. It's a very messy, acrimonious, bitter affair

:10:47. > :10:49.and it's particularly bad for the children will stop that's why I am

:10:50. > :10:54.here. You talk about working people, and particularly Scottish working

:10:55. > :10:58.people, they seem to have concluded that the social democracy they want

:10:59. > :11:05.to create cannot now be done in a UK context. Why should they not have a

:11:06. > :11:09.shot of going it alone? Because the opposite will happen. Separation

:11:10. > :11:13.will cause a race to the bottom in taxation. Alex Salmond has already

:11:14. > :11:17.announced he will cut the taxes on companies, corporation tax, down to

:11:18. > :11:23.3% hello whatever it is in the rest of these islands. And business will

:11:24. > :11:29.only be attracted to come here, country of 5 million people on if

:11:30. > :11:34.there is low regulation, low public expenditure, low levels of taxation

:11:35. > :11:38.for them will stop you cannot have Scandinavian social democracy on

:11:39. > :11:41.Texan levels of taxation. The British government, as will be, the

:11:42. > :11:46.rest of the UK, they will race Alex Salmond to the bottom. If he cuts it

:11:47. > :11:53.by three, they will cut it by four. And so on. So whether some people

:11:54. > :11:57.cannot see it clearly yet or not, the interests of the working people

:11:58. > :12:01.on both sides of the border would be gravely damaged by separation. Let's

:12:02. > :12:04.take the interest of the working people. As you know, as well as

:12:05. > :12:09.anyone, the coalition is in fermenting both a series of cuts and

:12:10. > :12:13.reforms in welfare, and labour, Westminster Labour, has only limited

:12:14. > :12:18.plans to reverse any of that. Surely if you want to preserve the welfare

:12:19. > :12:23.state as it is, independence is the way to do it. For the reasons I just

:12:24. > :12:27.explain, I don't believe that. But Ed Miliband will be along in a

:12:28. > :12:34.minute. He will be along in May The polls indicate... They say he is

:12:35. > :12:39.only four or 5%, that is the average. Like the referendum, the

:12:40. > :12:43.next general election could be nip and tuck. I don't, myself, think

:12:44. > :12:47.that the time of David Cameron as Prime Minister is for much longer. I

:12:48. > :12:51.think there will be a Labour government in the spring and the

:12:52. > :12:57.Labour government in London and a stronger Scottish Parliament, super

:12:58. > :13:03.Devo Max, that is now on the table. That is the best arrangement of

:13:04. > :13:06.people in the country. But the people of Scotland surely cannot

:13:07. > :13:11.base a decision on independence on your feeling that Labour might win

:13:12. > :13:15.the next general election. It is my feeling. When the Tories were beaten

:13:16. > :13:19.on the bedroom tax last week in the house, it was written all over the

:13:20. > :13:25.faces of the government side not only that they were headed for

:13:26. > :13:34.defeat, but probably a massive fishy -- Fisher. I think the race to the

:13:35. > :13:40.bottom that I have proper size will mean that the welfare state will be

:13:41. > :13:46.a distant memory quite soon. The cuts and the run on the Scottish

:13:47. > :13:50.economy here in Edinburgh, the financial services industry, that

:13:51. > :13:55.will be gravely damage. The Ministry of Defence jobs in Scotland

:13:56. > :14:02.decimated, probably ended, more or less. It will be a time of cuts and

:14:03. > :14:06.austerity, maybe super austerity in an independent Scotland. You

:14:07. > :14:09.mentioned defence. What about nuclear weapons? The Tories and

:14:10. > :14:13.Labour will keep them. You are against them. Surely the only way to

:14:14. > :14:20.be rid of them in Scotland is by independence. But you are not rid of

:14:21. > :14:24.them by telling them down the river. The danger would be the same --

:14:25. > :14:30.telling them down the river. The danger would be the same. Nuclear

:14:31. > :14:35.radiation does not respect Alex Salmond's national boundaries. They

:14:36. > :14:38.would be committed to immediately joining NATO, which is bristling

:14:39. > :14:42.with nuclear weapons and is what -- involved in wars across the

:14:43. > :14:47.Atlantic. So anyone looking for a peace option will have to elect a

:14:48. > :14:51.government in Britain as a whole that will get rid of nuclear weapons

:14:52. > :14:54.and get out of military entanglements. We are in one again

:14:55. > :15:01.now. I have been up the whole night, till 5am, dealing with some of the

:15:02. > :15:05.consequences and implications of the grave international matter that you

:15:06. > :15:12.opened the show with. David Haines and the fate of the hostage still in

:15:13. > :15:15.their hands. There are many other hostages as well. And there are many

:15:16. > :15:21.people dying who are neither British nor American. I have, somehow, been

:15:22. > :15:26.drawn into this matter. And it showed me, again, that the world is

:15:27. > :15:35.interdependent. It is absolutely riven with division and hatred, and

:15:36. > :15:40.this is the worst possible time to be opting out of the world to set up

:15:41. > :15:47.a small mini-state on the promises of Alex Salmond of social democracy

:15:48. > :15:49.funded by Texan taxes. Let's, for the sake of the next question,

:15:50. > :15:53.assume that everything you have told us is true. Why is your side

:15:54. > :16:10.squandering a 20 point lead? I will have a great deal to say

:16:11. > :16:18.about that, whatever the result This is very much a Scottish Labour

:16:19. > :16:23.project, is that not a condemnation of Scottish Labour? It is

:16:24. > :16:40.potentially on its deathbed. The country breaking up, the principal

:16:41. > :16:45.responsibility will be on them. And the pitiful, absolutely pitiful job

:16:46. > :16:52.that has been made of defending a 300-year-old relationship in this

:16:53. > :16:57.island by the Scottish Labour leadership is really terrible for me

:16:58. > :17:02.to behold, even though I'm no longer one of them. I don't know how they

:17:03. > :17:07.are going to get out of this deathbed. Do you agree that if this

:17:08. > :17:10.referendum is lost by your side it will be because traditional

:17:11. > :17:15.working-class Labour voters, particularly in the west of

:17:16. > :17:20.Scotland, have abundant Labour and decided to vote for independence?

:17:21. > :17:26.Without a doubt, the number of Labour voters intending to vote yes

:17:27. > :17:31.is disturbingly high. Even just months ago during the European

:17:32. > :17:36.Parliament elections, swathes of people who didn't vote SNP will be

:17:37. > :17:42.voting yes on Thursday. That is a grave squandering of a great legacy

:17:43. > :17:48.of Scottish Labour history, which history will decree as

:17:49. > :17:55.unforgivable. If Labour is to get out of its deathbed in Scotland it

:17:56. > :18:00.will have to become Labour again. Real Labour again. I am ready to

:18:01. > :18:08.help them with that. My goodness, they need help with it. I wonder if

:18:09. > :18:12.it isn't just a failure of Labour in Scotland. People all over Britain

:18:13. > :18:16.are increasingly fed up with the Westminster system, but it is only

:18:17. > :18:21.the Scots who currently have the chance to break free from it, so why

:18:22. > :18:27.shouldn't they? That is exactly right. They see a parliament of

:18:28. > :18:34.expenses cheats led by Lord snooty and the Bullingdon club elite,

:18:35. > :18:39.carrying through austerity for many but not for themselves and they are

:18:40. > :18:44.repulsed by it. They need change, but you can go backwards and call it

:18:45. > :18:50.change but it will be worse than the situation you have now. A lot of

:18:51. > :18:57.Scottish people don't buy that. It is a big gamble. If I were poised to

:18:58. > :19:02.put my family's life savings on the roulette table in Las Vegas, my wife

:19:03. > :19:06.would not be scaremongering if she pointed out the potential

:19:07. > :19:11.consequences if I'd lost. She would not be negative by telling me that

:19:12. > :19:14.is my children's money I am risking. If I jumped off this roof it would

:19:15. > :19:19.change my point of view, but it would be worse than the point of

:19:20. > :19:24.view I have now. There is another issue here because the Scots are

:19:25. > :19:31.being asked to gamble on the Westminster parties, which they are

:19:32. > :19:35.already suspicious of, of delivering home rule. Alistair Darling could

:19:36. > :19:40.not even tell me if Ed Balls had signed off on more income tax powers

:19:41. > :19:44.for Scotland, so that is a gamble for the Scots. I feel the British

:19:45. > :19:50.state has had such a shake out of all this that they would be beyond

:19:51. > :19:57.idiots, they would be insane now to risk all of this flaring up again

:19:58. > :20:02.because whatever happens, if we win on Thursday, it is going to be

:20:03. > :20:08.narrowly. It will be a severe fissure in Scotland. A great deal of

:20:09. > :20:14.unpleasantness that we are already aware of. That could turn but we're

:20:15. > :20:20.still. It would be dicing with death, playing with fire, to let

:20:21. > :20:25.Scottish people down after Thursday if we narrowly win. If you narrowly

:20:26. > :20:30.win, and if there are moves to this home rule Mr Brown has been talking

:20:31. > :20:38.about, England hasn't spoken yet on this. Whilst England would probably

:20:39. > :20:44.not want to stop -- stop Scotland getting this, they would say, what

:20:45. > :20:52.about us? It could delay the whole procedure. It is necessary, you are

:20:53. > :20:57.right. England should have home rule, and I screamed at Scottish

:20:58. > :21:03.Labour MPs going into the vote to introduce tuition fees in England. I

:21:04. > :21:08.told them this was a constitutional monstrosity, as well as a crime

:21:09. > :21:15.against young people in England It was risking everything. We are led

:21:16. > :21:22.by idiots. Our leaders are not James Bonds, they are Austin powers. We

:21:23. > :21:23.need to change the leadership, not rip up a 300-year-old marriage.

:21:24. > :21:29.Thank you. It's been one of the longest and

:21:30. > :21:31.hardest fought political campaigns in history, with Alex Salmond firing

:21:32. > :21:35.the starting gun on the referendum Adam's been stitching together

:21:36. > :21:50.the key moments of the campaign It is the other thing drawing people

:21:51. > :21:56.to the Scottish parliament, the new great tapestry of Scotland. It is

:21:57. > :22:01.the story of battles won and lost, Scottish moments, British moments,

:22:02. > :22:07.famous Scots, and not so famous Scots. There is even a panel

:22:08. > :22:11.dedicated to the rise of the SNP. Alex Salmond's majority in the

:22:12. > :22:16.elections in 2011 made the referendum inevitable. It became

:22:17. > :22:21.reality when he and David Cameron did a deal in Edinburgh one year

:22:22. > :22:26.later. The Scottish Government set out its plans for independence in

:22:27. > :22:35.this book, just a wish list to some, a sacred text to others. This White

:22:36. > :22:39.Paper is the most detailed improvements that any people have

:22:40. > :22:44.ever been offered in the world as a basis for becoming an independent

:22:45. > :22:50.country. The no campaign, called Better Together, united the Tories,

:22:51. > :22:55.Labour and the Lib Dems under the leadership of Alistair Darling. Then

:22:56. > :22:58.the Scottish people were bombarded with two years of photo

:22:59. > :23:03.opportunities and a lot of campaigning. For the no campaign,

:23:04. > :23:08.Jim Murphy went on tour but took a break when he was egged and his

:23:09. > :23:14.events were often hijacked by yes campaigners who were accused of

:23:15. > :23:18.being intimidating. In turn, they accused the no campaign of using

:23:19. > :23:26.scare tactics. Things heated up when the TV dinner -- during the TV

:23:27. > :23:32.debate. Fever pitch was reached one week ago when one poll suggested the

:23:33. > :23:36.yes campaign was in the lead for the first time. The three main

:23:37. > :23:40.Westminster leaders ditched PMQs to head north. I think people can feel

:23:41. > :23:45.it is like a general election, that you make a decision and five years

:23:46. > :23:49.later you can make another decision if you are fed up with the Tories,

:23:50. > :23:58.give them a kick... This is totally different. And Labour shelved not

:23:59. > :24:03.quite 100 MPs onto the train, Alex Salmond took a helicopter instead.

:24:04. > :24:09.This is about the formation of the NHS. A big theme of the yes campaign

:24:10. > :24:20.is that changes to the NHS in Linden -- in England would lead to

:24:21. > :24:26.privatisation in Scotland. Alex Salmond's plan to share the pound

:24:27. > :24:29.was trashed by big names. There were other big question is, what would

:24:30. > :24:34.happen to military hardware like Trident based on the Clyde? Would an

:24:35. > :24:40.independent Scotland be able to join the EU? And how much oil was left

:24:41. > :24:45.underneath the North Sea? This panel is about famous Scots, we

:24:46. > :24:52.have Annie Lennox, Stephen Hendry, Sean Connery. I cannot see Gordon

:24:53. > :24:57.Brown. These are big changes we are proposing to strengthen the Scottish

:24:58. > :25:01.parliament, but at the same time to stay as part of the UK. A regular on

:25:02. > :25:06.the campaign, he was front and centre when things got close,

:25:07. > :25:11.unveiling a timetable for more devolution. People wondered whether

:25:12. > :25:15.Ed Miliband was able to reach the parts of Scotland Labour leader

:25:16. > :25:18.should reach, and at Westminster some Tories pondered whether David

:25:19. > :25:22.Cameron could stay as prime minister if there was a yes vote. This

:25:23. > :25:28.tapestry is nonpartisan so it is a good place to get away from it all

:25:29. > :25:40.but it is crystallising voters' views. Look at what we have

:25:41. > :25:42.contributed to Great Britain, and I am British and I hope to be staying

:25:43. > :25:45.British. This is what people from Scotland have done, taken to the

:25:46. > :25:50.rest of the world in many cases and I think I am going to vote yes. I am

:25:51. > :25:54.so inspired by it. It has certainly inspired me to have a go at

:25:55. > :26:00.stitching. How long do you think it would take to do the whole thing? I

:26:01. > :26:04.would say to put aside maybe 30 hours of stitching. Maybe by the

:26:05. > :26:06.time I am done, we will know more about how the fabric of the nation

:26:07. > :26:10.might be changing. And I've been joined

:26:11. > :26:13.by yes campaigner and convenor of Scotland's Solidarity socialist

:26:14. > :26:25.party, Tommy Sheridan. An economy dependent on oil, the

:26:26. > :26:30.Queen as head of state, membership of the world 's premier nuclear

:26:31. > :26:41.alliance of capitalist nations is that the socialist Scotland you are

:26:42. > :26:44.fighting for? No, that is the SNP's prospectus and they are entitled to

:26:45. > :26:50.put forward their vision, but it is not mine or that of the majority of

:26:51. > :26:56.Scotland. We will find out in two years. On Thursday we are not voting

:26:57. > :27:02.for a political party, we are voting for our freedom as a country. That

:27:03. > :27:05.is why people are going to vote yes on Thursday. A lot of people are

:27:06. > :27:11.voting for what you call freedom because they think it will be more

:27:12. > :27:15.Scotland. You have already got free prescriptions, no tuition fees, free

:27:16. > :27:20.care for the elderly. You might not in future have that if public

:27:21. > :27:25.spending is overdependent on the price of oil, over which you have no

:27:26. > :27:29.control. We don't have to worry about one single resource, we

:27:30. > :27:36.already have 20% of the fishing stock in Europe. We already have 25%

:27:37. > :27:47.of the wind, wave and solar power generation. We, as an independent

:27:48. > :27:52.country, have huge resources, natural resources but also people

:27:53. > :27:56.resources. We have five first-class universities, food and beverages

:27:57. > :28:00.industry which is the envy of the world. We have the ability to

:28:01. > :28:04.produce the resources on the revenues that won't just maintain

:28:05. > :28:08.the health service and education but it will develop health and

:28:09. > :28:13.education. I don't want to stand still, I want to redistribute

:28:14. > :28:20.wealth. But all of the projections of public spending for an

:28:21. > :28:25.independent Scotland show that to keep spending at the current level

:28:26. > :28:30.you need a strong price of oil and you are dependent on this commodity

:28:31. > :28:35.which goes up and down and sideways. That is a gamble. I have got to

:28:36. > :28:39.laugh because I have been told the most pessimistic is that in 40 years

:28:40. > :28:46.the oil is running out, panic stations! If you were told by the

:28:47. > :28:51.BBC you could only guarantee employment for the next 40 years you

:28:52. > :28:57.would be over the moon. I am talking about in the next five. You need 50%

:28:58. > :29:02.of your revenues to come from oil to continue spending and that is not a

:29:03. > :29:09.guarantee. Of course it is, the minimum survival of the oil is 0

:29:10. > :29:24.years. Please get your viewers to go onto the Internet and look at the

:29:25. > :29:30.website called oilandgas.com. The West Coast has 100 years of oil to

:29:31. > :29:33.be extracted. It hasn't been done because in 1981 Michael Heseltine

:29:34. > :29:41.said we cannot extract the oil because we have Trident going up and

:29:42. > :29:51.down there. Let's get rid of Trident and extract the oil. You are a trot

:29:52. > :29:56.right, why have you failed to learn his famous dictum, socialism in one

:29:57. > :30:01.country is impossible. Revolutions and change are not just single

:30:02. > :30:05.event. What will happen here on Thursday is a democratic revolution.

:30:06. > :30:10.The people are fed up of being patronised and lied to by this mob

:30:11. > :30:16.in Westminster who have used and abused us for far too long. The

:30:17. > :30:20.smaller people now have a voice What about socialism in one

:30:21. > :30:30.country? Mr Trotsky warned you against that. The no campaign

:30:31. > :30:34.represents the past. The yes campaign represents the future. That

:30:35. > :30:39.is the truth of the matter. What we are going to do in an independent

:30:40. > :30:46.Scotland is tackle inequality and a scourge of low pay. If we vote no on

:30:47. > :30:52.Thursday, there will be more low pay on Friday, more poverty and food

:30:53. > :30:58.banks on Friday. I'm not going to be lectured by these big banks, you

:30:59. > :31:06.vote less -- yes and we will leave the country! The food banks will be

:31:07. > :31:11.the ones closing. If you got your way, for the type of Scotland you

:31:12. > :31:17.would like to see, state control of business, nationalisation of the

:31:18. > :31:24.Manx, the roads to Carlisle will be clogged with people

:31:25. > :31:32.Yes, hoping to come into Scotland, because in their hearts, the

:31:33. > :31:37.Scottish people know that England want to see the people having the

:31:38. > :31:40.bottle. The working class people in Liverpool, Newcastle, outside of

:31:41. > :31:44.London, they are saying good on the jocks that are taking on big

:31:45. > :31:48.business. When we are independent and investing in social housing the

:31:49. > :31:53.people of England will say, we can do that as well, and they will

:31:54. > :31:56.rediscover the radical tradition. In wanting to build socialism in one

:31:57. > :32:00.country, it really means you are fighting for the few, rather than

:32:01. > :32:04.the many. You are bailing out of the socialist Battle for Britain. You

:32:05. > :32:12.think it will be easier to make it work. Think globally, act locally

:32:13. > :32:16.and we will build socialism in Scotland but I wanted across the

:32:17. > :32:20.world. I won my brothers and sisters in England and Wales to be

:32:21. > :32:24.encouraged by what we do so they can reject the Westminster consensus as

:32:25. > :32:28.well -- I want. We had the three Stooges coming up to London, three

:32:29. > :32:32.millionaires united on one thing, austerity. Doesn't matter whether Ed

:32:33. > :32:36.Miliband wins the next election he said he would stick to the story

:32:37. > :32:42.spending cuts. Why vote for Ed Miliband? You wouldn't trust him to

:32:43. > :32:46.run a bath, not a country. Let's see if this is realistic, this great

:32:47. > :32:50.socialist vision. At the last Scottish election, the Socialist

:32:51. > :32:56.party got 8000 votes. The Conservatives got 30 times more

:32:57. > :33:00.votes. Where is the appetite in Scotland for your Marxist ideology

:33:01. > :33:03.question we might not win it. But do you know what, see in two years

:33:04. > :33:18.time. See when we have the Scottish general election. You won't -- you

:33:19. > :33:24.are saying you might win and you went to the Holyrood election and

:33:25. > :33:27.got 8000 Pope -- votes. The SNP won a democratic election and then won

:33:28. > :33:31.the 2011 election and you know why they won? Because they picked up the

:33:32. > :33:35.clothes that the Labour Party has thrown away. They picked up the

:33:36. > :33:43.close of social democracy and protecting the health service was --

:33:44. > :33:47.service. There are people in the SNP who believe in public ownership and

:33:48. > :33:50.people in the SNP who believe in the NHS should be written into a

:33:51. > :33:54.constitution as never for sale people in the the SNP that think the

:33:55. > :33:59.Royal mail should return to public ownership. That is there in black

:34:00. > :34:02.and white. Do you agree with George Galloway that this is potentially a

:34:03. > :34:08.crisis for Scottish Labour? Scottish Labour is finished. They are

:34:09. > :34:12.absolutely finished. George is right in that. Scottish Labour is

:34:13. > :34:15.finished. The irony of ironies is, Labour in Scotland has more chance

:34:16. > :34:21.of recovery in an independent Scotland that they have in a no

:34:22. > :34:25.vote. Labour in Scotland in an independent country will have to

:34:26. > :34:29.rediscover the traditions of Keir Hardie, the ideas of Jimmy Maxon,

:34:30. > :34:36.because right now, they are to the right of the SNP as a political

:34:37. > :34:40.party. I understand the socialist vision, but it is where the appetite

:34:41. > :34:46.is. And you look at the independence people in Scotland. One of your

:34:47. > :34:52.colleagues, Brian Souter, a man who fought against the appeal -- repeal

:34:53. > :34:56.of homosexual rights in Scotland. Another of your allies would seem to

:34:57. > :35:03.be Rupert Murdoch, the man who engineered your downfall. You say he

:35:04. > :35:08.engineered your downfall, but I m still here and his newspaper has

:35:09. > :35:12.closed. Whether it Rupert Murdoch, Brian Souter, or any other

:35:13. > :35:15.millionaire supporting independence, I couldn't care less. This boat on

:35:16. > :35:22.Thursday is not about millionaires, it is about the millions. -- this

:35:23. > :35:27.vote. We will not be abused any young -- longer. Would you rather

:35:28. > :35:32.not have their support? I couldn't care about the support. You know who

:35:33. > :35:35.is supporting the union. It is the unions of the big businesses, the

:35:36. > :35:43.BNP, UKIP, they are the ones who support it. You are giving me a

:35:44. > :35:46.stray that has wandered into the campaign and are you seriously going

:35:47. > :35:50.to argue with me that the establishment isn't united to try

:35:51. > :35:55.and save the union? That is what they are trying to be. The BBC, you

:35:56. > :35:58.have been a disgrace in your coverage of the campaign. Not you

:35:59. > :36:03.personally. You don't have editorial control. The BBC coverage,

:36:04. > :36:09.generally, has been a disgrace and the people. Oil and gas, go and look

:36:10. > :36:12.at that, why is that not feature. Why is the idea of 100 years of oil

:36:13. > :36:17.not featured in the campaign. Because the BBC does not want to see

:36:18. > :36:22.it. Are you getting in your excuses if you lose? You better be kidding.

:36:23. > :36:28.Is this the face of somebody looking to lose. We are going to win, 6 /40.

:36:29. > :36:33.Absolutely. There is a momentum that you guys are not seeing on the

:36:34. > :36:37.working-class housing estates. Working class people are fed up

:36:38. > :36:45.being taken for granted fed up with the lives of people dragging us into

:36:46. > :36:49.tax cuts, bedroom tax for the poor. They will have power on Thursday,

:36:50. > :36:53.and they will use it and vote for freedom. Are you happy with the way

:36:54. > :36:58.the BBC has treated you today? So far, yes. I have still not been

:36:59. > :37:03.offered a Coffey, but that might happen. That is an obvious example

:37:04. > :37:25.In the East Midlands, our economy you later with George Galloway.

:37:26. > :37:30.In the East Midlands, our economy leads the UK economy but who is

:37:31. > :37:36.feeling the benefit? There are a number of reasons, a

:37:37. > :37:40.recovering economy, governmdnt investment as well as our own, they

:37:41. > :37:48.have all played their part hn solidifying the economic recovery. I

:37:49. > :37:52.am hearing not, I am feeling better off, people are actually fedling

:37:53. > :37:57.sort of desperate as well. Forget the Scottish vote, is it time

:37:58. > :38:02.for the East Midlands to go it alone?

:38:03. > :38:11.Might it be worth the East Lidlands going for independent? Independent

:38:12. > :38:18.Care Group `` kingdom of thd East Midlands, sounds good, doesn't it?

:38:19. > :38:22.Let's take a look at the news that the East Midlands has some of the

:38:23. > :38:26.worst care homes in the country according to a new report.

:38:27. > :38:31.Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire and Leicestershire came in the bottom

:38:32. > :38:37.ten when it came to failing care home inspections. In Nottinghamshire

:38:38. > :38:41.36% have failed tests, in Ddrbyshire one third failed and in

:38:42. > :38:45.Leicestershire it was 20%. Nottinghamshire county council say

:38:46. > :38:48.the figures are not a fair reflection because they havd a

:38:49. > :38:55.robust reporting system so problems are more likely to be reported. Liz,

:38:56. > :39:04.you Labour's Care Minister, on the face of it these figures ard

:39:05. > :39:11.worrying. `` you are. Anybody with an elderly relative at home will be

:39:12. > :39:19.worried. We need to look at improving the training of the care

:39:20. > :39:23.workforce, have robust systdms to make sure that problems are rooted

:39:24. > :39:26.out, and make sure that people who run failing care homes can't set

:39:27. > :39:30.them up somewhere else. I would like to see a stronger role for local

:39:31. > :39:39.councils, who are often closer to the care homes. Notts Countx council

:39:40. > :39:47.said it was misleading to s`y that the homes failed inspections because

:39:48. > :39:55.the tests look at a wide range of issues. Have I got a point? I am

:39:56. > :39:58.always in favour of openness and transparency because I think you can

:39:59. > :40:04.flush out problems and deal with them but we need to have proper care

:40:05. > :40:09.standards, proper qualifications and skills and real mechanisms to hold

:40:10. > :40:12.care providers to account. Ht sounds like it is bad news for people

:40:13. > :40:21.involved in care in the East Midlands. It should be of concern to

:40:22. > :40:27.all of us. We are all getting older. Shouldn't the government be doing

:40:28. > :40:35.more to help people? The minister in charge is going to set up a new

:40:36. > :40:40.inspection regime starting next year. That is going to be f`r more

:40:41. > :40:45.rigorous and I think it will give people confidence. I have vhsited

:40:46. > :40:49.care homes in my constituency, they are generally well`run, thex have

:40:50. > :40:55.caring staff, but if they are not they need to be scrutinised. In a

:40:56. > :41:01.lot of cases these are Labotr authorities. I want to come back to

:41:02. > :41:04.this point that Andrew said, yes, we need a tough and effective

:41:05. > :41:09.regulation system but regul`tion happens after the event, yot want to

:41:10. > :41:14.prevent the problem is happdning. I think we should see a proper system

:41:15. > :41:17.to make sure that the managdrs have the skills and qualifications they

:41:18. > :41:24.need, we need to look at tr`ining of the care workforce am and I think

:41:25. > :41:35.all councils can look at having a real care standards. Our region has

:41:36. > :41:38.the fastest jobs growth and fastest`growing GDP but doubts

:41:39. > :41:42.remain about whether people are feeling the benefits in wagd packets

:41:43. > :41:49.and job security, because wd have had the biggest fall in wagds in the

:41:50. > :41:58.country. It is go, go, go for the East

:41:59. > :42:03.Midlands economy. Anna Lo powered series starting this weekend is

:42:04. > :42:12.based at Donington Park. More than 150 high`tech jobs, the latdst boost

:42:13. > :42:18.for the area. We have government support through the loan scheme that

:42:19. > :42:25.helped will these schemes, `nd major commitment from the company have

:42:26. > :42:30.played their part in solidifying economic recovery. Donington Park is

:42:31. > :42:33.not the only winner in the dconomy because the East Midlands is

:42:34. > :42:37.expected to be the fastest region when it comes to job growth in the

:42:38. > :42:42.coming year. Figures out thhs week show that in the first thred months

:42:43. > :42:46.of the year the region was hn top gear. While Leicestershire was in

:42:47. > :42:52.pole position, the city of Leicester was in danger of being lappdd. The

:42:53. > :42:56.number of people claiming ott of work benefits has fallen

:42:57. > :43:05.dramatically but the number of people actually in work has also

:43:06. > :43:11.fallen. Gemma, `` Gemma has felt little economic improvement in her

:43:12. > :43:15.household. My husband wants to work but it is not realistic. Evdn

:43:16. > :43:23.clothing my children is mord expensive. Across`the`board,

:43:24. > :43:28.economic indicators in Leicdster West are worse for women th`n men

:43:29. > :43:36.when compared to the British average. The jobs many women want

:43:37. > :43:42.are in short supply and, whhle nationally only 6% of women are

:43:43. > :43:46.self`employed, here the figtre is so low it doesn't register in the

:43:47. > :43:50.government figures. I have been looking for work for four ydars and

:43:51. > :43:56.it is really difficult, I think more difficult for women because you have

:43:57. > :44:01.to juggle the children and work Are lots of people finding it dhfficult

:44:02. > :44:06.to find work? I work with a lot of people in the community and I am

:44:07. > :44:09.hearing not, I feel better off, some people are actually feeling sort of

:44:10. > :44:15.desperate as well. Business confidence is high but the wheels

:44:16. > :44:18.will need to spin a bit faster before everybody else feels

:44:19. > :44:23.confident about the economy. There is no doubt the econoly is

:44:24. > :44:28.growing and the East Midlands is doing far better than most. I am

:44:29. > :44:31.really pleased we are finally seeing growth coming back, I would have

:44:32. > :44:39.liked to have seen it earlidr but it is good news. As I think yot saw,

:44:40. > :44:42.the question is whether people are really feeling the benefit. The

:44:43. > :44:53.difficulty is that, with prhces rising much faster than wagds, and

:44:54. > :44:58.that having happened for fotr years, ordinary people are not seehng the

:44:59. > :45:02.benefit. In north`west Leicestershire we got hit in

:45:03. > :45:07.Labour's great recession, a 10% reduction... Caused by the banking

:45:08. > :45:22.crisis that happened across the world. Wages took three years to

:45:23. > :45:30.recover from their 2008 levdls. They dropped by 6.7%, the biggest in the

:45:31. > :45:35.country. It recovered three years later and it is growing,

:45:36. > :45:40.unemployment is down at 2%, we have seen a 14% reduction in my

:45:41. > :45:49.constituency, and youth unelployment is down 50%. Do you deny we have the

:45:50. > :45:57.worst figures for wages? Wage growth with an unemployment rate of 2%

:45:58. > :46:05.would be quite good. It was 3.6 against 3.2% across the UK. The big

:46:06. > :46:09.question for the future is, are we going to have an economy whdre

:46:10. > :46:14.everybody shares in the bendfits of more jobs and growth and businesses

:46:15. > :46:22.being more successful, or are we going to end up competing in a low

:46:23. > :46:27.skill, low wage economy? Much of the growth is coming from retail and

:46:28. > :46:31.distribution. Yes, about a third of the jobs in my constituency are

:46:32. > :46:38.related to distribution bec`use we have very good communications and an

:46:39. > :46:44.airport... We really do need good, decent jobs, high skill, high wage.

:46:45. > :46:50.There is so much more we cotld do. Those jobs do exist, we saw in the

:46:51. > :46:55.report the manufacturing sector We are doing that by reforming the

:46:56. > :47:00.schools, when I came into office in 2010, over 15% of my workforce had

:47:01. > :47:08.no formal qualifications. That is down to just over 8%. I think we

:47:09. > :47:12.need something far bigger and bolder if we are really going to stcceed in

:47:13. > :47:18.the East Midlands and as a country. As we have proposed, we need to see

:47:19. > :47:25.much more power down to the regions and the cities, to link togdther the

:47:26. > :47:38.universities and get the right infrastructure in place, tr`nsform

:47:39. > :47:48.skills. An undoubtedly therd is going to be pressure on wagds in

:47:49. > :47:49.constituencies like mine. In Leicestershire there are far more

:47:50. > :47:53.jobs available than people unemployed. We need better

:47:54. > :47:57.communication links between city and county so that those people in the

:47:58. > :48:03.city who do not have a job can take the jobs in the county. The only way

:48:04. > :48:07.we are going to get the infrastructure, not just thd

:48:08. > :48:14.transport but the skills, wd need much more power and control down to

:48:15. > :48:19.the East Midlands. Also it hs the attitude of the local counchls.

:48:20. > :48:23.North`west Leicestershire, the county council, they are

:48:24. > :48:27.pro`business and it is a welcoming place for businesses. I am not sure

:48:28. > :48:34.that attitude is being shown in the city. Absolute rubbish, we `re

:48:35. > :48:40.passionate about supporting businesses, transforming skhlls

:48:41. > :48:50.They obviously don't believd you. We are making phenomenal improvements

:48:51. > :48:55.in our skills... Rather than descend into a party political row, there is

:48:56. > :48:58.a big question, which is wh`t you are seeing in the East Midl`nds is

:48:59. > :49:03.mirrored across the country, some places doing well, others not. We

:49:04. > :49:11.will only succeed if we all do well together. End of the party political

:49:12. > :49:15.broadcast. Never mind the Scottish refdrendum,

:49:16. > :49:20.maybe it is time to think about an independent East Midlands. Robert

:49:21. > :49:25.Shaw has written a book explaining how the East Midlands has ghven the

:49:26. > :49:30.world gravity, the Industri`l Revolution and even sex, cotrtesy of

:49:31. > :49:42.the H Lawrence. We asked hil how his vision would look. `` DH Lawrence.

:49:43. > :49:48.This is the southernmost pohnt that a Scottish army has ever cole in

:49:49. > :49:51.England. Legend has it that Bonnie Prince Charlie looked at thd East

:49:52. > :49:56.Midlands people and knew thdre was no way he would get passed. Like

:49:57. > :50:02.Scotland, the East Midlands does not always get the recognition ht

:50:03. > :50:06.deserves, so might it be worth the East Midlands going for

:50:07. > :50:12.independence? An independent kingdom of the East Midlands, sounds good,

:50:13. > :50:16.doesn't it? But why would wd want to be independent and who are we

:50:17. > :50:21.anyway? Most people here don't really know. This is from a tourist

:50:22. > :50:26.board survey night by the E`st Midlands tourist board, which does

:50:27. > :50:32.not exist any more. Correspondents summed it up as industrial, built

:50:33. > :50:41.up, heavily propagated, busx, no countryside, not touristy, `n

:50:42. > :50:46.romantic. `` not romantic. Ht is obviously not true but how do we

:50:47. > :50:54.change these attitudes. The first thing we can do is take control of

:50:55. > :50:59.the M1. Charge people to usd it at each end and bring the country to

:51:00. > :51:03.its knees. Because we are the Midlands we need a coastlind so

:51:04. > :51:08.let's make a grab for Skegndss. We would have an excellent source of

:51:09. > :51:16.fish and also we would have somewhere to go on holiday. How

:51:17. > :51:21.about jobs? We have everythhng an independent nation needs, v`st

:51:22. > :51:31.mineral resources, we could reopen the pits. North Nottinghamshire is

:51:32. > :51:36.rich in shale gas. How about reopening the knitwear factories?

:51:37. > :51:43.There was a time that peopld in England had nothing else to wear.

:51:44. > :51:48.From Derbyshire we could have Robert Lindsay as head of state from

:51:49. > :51:52.Leicestershire, Gary Lineker, and from Nottinghamshire Rebecc`

:51:53. > :52:03.Adlington. As for the issue of currency, we would not borrow with

:52:04. > :52:06.the pound, we would use the medieval ducat. We would need a propdr

:52:07. > :52:11.national flag. What is disthnct about the Midlands is that ht is in

:52:12. > :52:22.the middle so we could have a design that was all middle and no ddge As

:52:23. > :52:29.for national dress... That hs easy. So there you have it. Polithcally,

:52:30. > :52:34.economically, culturally, the East Midlands has everything it needs to

:52:35. > :52:38.be its own country. Next tile a Scottish army arrives at thhs bridge

:52:39. > :52:42.it is going to show its passport if it wants to get into the independent

:52:43. > :52:47.kingdom of the East Midlands. Robert Shaw, tongue firmly hn cheek.

:52:48. > :52:53.But of course there is a serious side to the debate. We are joined by

:52:54. > :52:58.Melanie Powell, and in? An dconomist from Derby University. If Scotland

:52:59. > :53:04.was to become independent, would it make any difference to us hdre?

:53:05. > :53:20.There are two macro elements, the short term and the uncertainty. ``

:53:21. > :53:24.two elements. Companies that are trading with Scotland could see a

:53:25. > :53:30.short`term problem there. There may be an effect on sterling and a

:53:31. > :53:41.further depreciation, which, of course, can effect export companies

:53:42. > :53:52.and benefit import companies. `` aspect. Even if there is a no vote

:53:53. > :53:56.there is still uncertainty. With a yes vote there would be a htge

:53:57. > :54:02.shift. Would things change hf there was a no vote? Yes, because even if

:54:03. > :54:07.there is the debate is going to change about regional power and the

:54:08. > :54:13.English Parliament that doesn't exist. As nurses have to de`l with

:54:14. > :54:18.that and they have to deal with how that might effect growth in the

:54:19. > :54:27.economy. I think a no vote will not be so damaging, with a yes vote

:54:28. > :54:35.there will be severe uncert`inty. Our MPs have been up to Scotland,

:54:36. > :54:39.how was it? It is a really tough campaign, people are really engaged,

:54:40. > :54:44.everybody knows it is happening people are talking about thd

:54:45. > :54:49.arguments. People feel passhonately on the doorstep, they want to

:54:50. > :54:54.engage. I think politically that is a good thing that it is going to go

:54:55. > :54:57.to the wire and I know that myself and my Labour colleagues will be

:54:58. > :55:06.fighting every step to keep the union. I felt that it is polarising

:55:07. > :55:12.and becoming slightly aggressive in parts between the yes and no

:55:13. > :55:17.campaigners. It is a bit of a civil war and they can be quite bloody.

:55:18. > :55:31.What does it mean for your constituents, do you think they are

:55:32. > :55:35.in gauge to buy it? `` engaged by it. I think there will be a further

:55:36. > :55:39.debate about devolution of controls throughout the rest of the TK and I

:55:40. > :55:46.think that is right. People want to have more of a say and more control

:55:47. > :55:54.over their lives. In the short term it will have an impact. It hs this

:55:55. > :56:01.uncertainty you were saying. How will that be felt in your areas I

:56:02. > :56:03.think there is a backlash on the government backbenches. We

:56:04. > :56:13.understand that David Cameron wants to keep the union together but by

:56:14. > :56:16.offering devolution max, it seems that Ed Miliband has had more to do

:56:17. > :56:26.with this than the backbenches. If we are not careful we will love to a

:56:27. > :56:37.situation where heads, Alex Salmond wins, tales, England loses. There is

:56:38. > :56:42.not just this risk and uncertainty, there is the risk and uncertainty of

:56:43. > :56:48.our membership of the Europdan Union, which companies and

:56:49. > :56:55.businesses are very concerndd about. I understand that the conservatives

:56:56. > :57:01.don't like the risk of uncertainty surrounding Scottish independence

:57:02. > :57:07.but they don't care about this uncertainty. If it is a no vote but

:57:08. > :57:13.only small one, I don't think that will get the question of thd table.

:57:14. > :57:23.Melanie, are we being compl`cent about the prospect of a yes vote?

:57:24. > :57:30.Should as Mrs have a plan rdady `` businesses have. Absolutely, if you

:57:31. > :57:37.are trading internationally or in Scotland you have two considered the

:57:38. > :57:42.risk. The cost of dealing whth the uncertainty will rise as thd

:57:43. > :57:54.uncertainty rises. If you are buying strawberries from Scotland xou might

:57:55. > :57:59.think, if there is a yes vote, will it be certain that Scotland will

:58:00. > :58:12.stay in the Euro? If not, m`ybe we should be Retera off planning to buy

:58:13. > :58:19.from Spain. `` be better off. Which way do you think it will go? That is

:58:20. > :58:25.a tough question. We were t`lking earlier about this. There is the

:58:26. > :58:34.psychology of decision making, most people are risk averse. Thex have

:58:35. > :58:37.the choice between certaintx and the uncertainty of the future and I

:58:38. > :58:43.think in the vote box a lot of people will shift towards the no.

:58:44. > :58:48.Time for a round`up of some of the other political stories in the East

:58:49. > :58:52.Midlands. We might not get independence but

:58:53. > :59:02.could we see one leader for all of our police forces. The Chief

:59:03. > :59:09.Constable of Nottinghamshird says the region should have thred forces.

:59:10. > :59:15.Overall health levels in thd county are good but there are pockdts of

:59:16. > :59:20.ill health. The Labour group ruling

:59:21. > :59:29.Nottinghamshire county council says it is business as usual despite

:59:30. > :59:34.losing its overall majority. One councillor resigned in protdst over

:59:35. > :59:39.cuts and they only had a majority of one.

:59:40. > :59:45.Two Nottinghamshire MPs say they will give away a pay rise to MPs'

:59:46. > :59:55.salaries. They say they will give the money to good causes.

:59:56. > :59:58.Have you spent your pay risd ready? Definitely not, don't think it

:59:59. > :00:07.should be given, will continue to fight against it. I am sure my

:00:08. > :00:14.ex`wife will find a use for it. The last time a sewer was built in

:00:15. > :00:18.London was 150 years ago, otherwise we would have a dirty River Thames.

:00:19. > :00:23.Andrew, back to you. Can

:00:24. > :00:28.the No campaign still pull it off? And even if they do is the whole

:00:29. > :00:32.of the UK now on the brink I'm joined now by John McTernan

:00:33. > :00:49.former adviser to Gordon Brown and Tony Blair, Alex Bell,

:00:50. > :00:52.former Head of Policy for the SNP and Lindsay McIntosh, the

:00:53. > :00:54.Times Scottish Political Editor And I'm delighted that Tommy

:00:55. > :01:00.and George have stayed too. No fighting has broken out either.

:01:01. > :01:09.Where No fighting has broken out either.

:01:10. > :01:09.have three full days to go No fighting has broken out either.

:01:10. > :01:17.polling day. What is the state of play? I think the poll of polls is

:01:18. > :01:21.accurate. 49 and 51%. What is vital is to bring the undecided voters in,

:01:22. > :01:26.and they properly have about 500,000. I think there are a lot of

:01:27. > :01:30.undecided people. I think they know which way they are leaning, but they

:01:31. > :01:37.haven't jumped. The hope of the no campaign is that they will go for

:01:38. > :01:43.the status quo on Thursday. How do you assess the state of the campaign

:01:44. > :01:48.now? The crucial thing is the big swing. The swing has come towards

:01:49. > :01:54.yes, so will the momentum carry it over the line? I will think it does,

:01:55. > :01:58.because it is an antiestablishment swell, and its people responding to

:01:59. > :02:02.standard Western as the politicians and saying that they want a new way

:02:03. > :02:08.-- Westminster politicians. I think that yes will sneak it. A referendum

:02:09. > :02:14.can be more important than a general election, and the Yes campaign have

:02:15. > :02:17.had the momentum. This was the week the momentum stopped. We started the

:02:18. > :02:20.week looking as though yes were going into the lead and then it

:02:21. > :02:24.stopped and most of the recent polls show a distinct lead for the no

:02:25. > :02:29.campaign. A distinct lead? It is one or two points. It is six in one

:02:30. > :02:34.poll, two in another, aiding another. The poll of polls is a good

:02:35. > :02:39.way of measuring, and is it statistically Nick -- nip and tuck?

:02:40. > :02:43.It is the week the momentum stopped. About a fifth of the electorate

:02:44. > :02:47.That will be a quarter of the turnout have voted already, by

:02:48. > :02:52.postal vote, and they are running very strongly towards no, so there

:02:53. > :02:56.is a whole bank of votes there. The postal votes are skewed to the over

:02:57. > :03:02.60s, and that is the demographic that the Yes campaign have had the

:03:03. > :03:07.biggest trouble with. Absolutely, the Yes campaign faced a challenge

:03:08. > :03:12.amongst the 16 and 18-year-olds and always based challenge with the

:03:13. > :03:17.older voters. Trust me, I was the decision the day the civil servants

:03:18. > :03:20.made it possible for the 16 to 18-year-olds to vote, and we said

:03:21. > :03:25.there was a victory for the no campaign in that alone. The young

:03:26. > :03:29.tend to be conservative by nature. I think again that to say that the

:03:30. > :03:37.momentum has stopped when you had a 20 point lead, this is a referendum

:03:38. > :03:41.whether people will speak and they will be heard. Except for the one

:03:42. > :03:46.poll which needs a huge health warning because of the size of the

:03:47. > :03:49.sample, the momentum is unquestionably all the way through

:03:50. > :03:56.August is going in the direction of yes. It hasn't quite continue to get

:03:57. > :04:00.to the 55/45 four yes that Alex Salmond thinks will be the result. I

:04:01. > :04:06.would agree with John. This was the momentum stalled. We saw the three

:04:07. > :04:11.leaders coming up, and that kept Alex Salmond off the front pages on

:04:12. > :04:14.the television and we had a raft of economic warnings which, although

:04:15. > :04:16.they were dismissed as scaremongering, they will have had a

:04:17. > :04:24.lot of traction with voters. What does the no campaign have to do in

:04:25. > :04:29.the final three days? It has to focus on the undecided,

:04:30. > :04:32.relentlessly. It has to do stick to the question of risk and keep

:04:33. > :04:35.pushing back on Alex Salmond to say it doesn't matter if the banks

:04:36. > :04:40.leave, it will all be all right on the night. The huge question amongst

:04:41. > :04:45.the undecided voters is about the economy. It is about jobs and

:04:46. > :04:48.currency, about business. That risk is what will crystallise in the

:04:49. > :04:53.ballot box on Thursday and that has to be the focus. What does the Yes

:04:54. > :04:57.campaign have to do? It has to drive home that the swing to the Yes

:04:58. > :05:01.campaign is motivated by people who want a different politics. They have

:05:02. > :05:03.decided amongst themselves that they want to change Scotland. The

:05:04. > :05:09.unfortunate thing is, even though the no campaign has had the chance

:05:10. > :05:12.to put up after proposals, they have failed. The Scottish people want

:05:13. > :05:17.their powers were a purpose and they say that only the Yes campaign can

:05:18. > :05:20.deliver that. There will be two days of relentless campaigning from

:05:21. > :05:23.today, Monday and Tuesday, then the media, the newspapers, including

:05:24. > :05:29.your own, will come out with the final poll, the ones that will be

:05:30. > :05:34.the closest to the day that the Scots actually go and vote. I think

:05:35. > :05:36.we will see more polling this week, but what is interesting is the

:05:37. > :05:40.extent to which the pollsters are picking up what is going on in the

:05:41. > :05:43.street. We know we have a huge number of voters who have never

:05:44. > :05:49.voted before and are not engage with politics, so what will they do? The

:05:50. > :05:53.third candidate in the election if I can would in this way, are the

:05:54. > :05:56.polls. They might have a lot of questions to answer on Friday

:05:57. > :05:59.morning. We were talking earlier with George and Tommy about the

:06:00. > :06:05.Labour Party's consequences in all of this. Gordon Brown, of course,

:06:06. > :06:09.has had a bit of a second coming as a result of this referendum. I just

:06:10. > :06:13.want to play a clip of Gordon Brown during the campaign and get a

:06:14. > :06:22.reaction. And I say this to Alex Salmond himself. Up until today I am

:06:23. > :06:25.outside front line politics. If he continues to peddle this deception,

:06:26. > :06:30.that the Scottish Parliament under his leadership, and he cannot do

:06:31. > :06:37.anything to improve the health service until he has a separate

:06:38. > :06:40.state, then I will want to join Joe Hanlon want in and securing the

:06:41. > :06:48.return of a Labour government as quickly as possible -- Johann

:06:49. > :06:51.Lamont. That was seen by some people as Gordon Brown implying he might

:06:52. > :06:54.stand for the Scottish Parliament. Whether it is yes or no, is Gordon

:06:55. > :07:01.Brown the saviour of Scottish Labour? I did a double black the

:07:02. > :07:04.other night -- double act with him the other night, and I must say he

:07:05. > :07:10.was a big beast all over again. He crossed the stage Meli dealt with

:07:11. > :07:14.the audience brilliantly. He has a certain presence, Gordon Brown, but

:07:15. > :07:20.he would really have to reinvent himself quite considerably. He is

:07:21. > :07:25.capable of doing, but the man who was the biographer of Jimmy Maxton,

:07:26. > :07:29.who pulled together the original red paper on Scotland, he would have to

:07:30. > :07:33.be that Gordon Brown rather than the Gordon Brown of some more melancholy

:07:34. > :07:36.events later. Tommy, you have both been critical of the state of the

:07:37. > :07:40.Scottish Labour Party. Rather than looking to Gordon Brown, which might

:07:41. > :07:44.be an interim solution, doesn't Scottish Labour have to find a new

:07:45. > :07:48.generation of people to reignite it? What George and I are agreed on and

:07:49. > :07:53.you have to remember this question of independence see us disagreeing

:07:54. > :07:57.passionately, and in most other things we find ourselves in

:07:58. > :08:00.agreement, one thing is clear, Scottish Labour is finished. They

:08:01. > :08:07.have lost the heart and soul of Scotland. The fact that we are

:08:08. > :08:12.discussing with four days to go an independence referendum that is neck

:08:13. > :08:14.and neck, Labour have failed miserably, absolutely miserably

:08:15. > :08:19.because they have given up everything they stood for. The SNP

:08:20. > :08:22.has picked it up. They have just taken on the bank -- mantle of a

:08:23. > :08:27.left of centre party and are picking up support. Gordon and the rest in

:08:28. > :08:30.my opinion, they represent the past. The yes vote on the Yes campaign

:08:31. > :08:36.represents the future. What do you say to that? There is nothing

:08:37. > :08:41.socialist about an SNP that wants to cut business tax by 3% in the pan.

:08:42. > :08:43.There is nothing socialist about an SNP destroying further education so

:08:44. > :08:49.they can give middle-class people free education. The Labour Party is

:08:50. > :08:55.alive and kicking. You can see if it is Gordon Brown, or Jim Murphy with

:08:56. > :08:59.the 100 days tour. But I hesitate to use this word, but they are kind of

:09:00. > :09:04.privatised from the Scottish Labour Party. They have rode their own

:09:05. > :09:07.fallow. Jim Murphy was on the stump because official Scottish Labour did

:09:08. > :09:12.not want him leading their campaign. Gordon Brown was, I think, kept off

:09:13. > :09:18.the stage until it became so critical that he had to be brought

:09:19. > :09:25.back. I agree with John, the SNP talks left but acts right. That is

:09:26. > :09:28.before they get state powers. That is what is exciting about the

:09:29. > :09:32.referendum, it's not about the SNP, it's about the people deciding. What

:09:33. > :09:35.we have heard so far in the referendum campaign is that there is

:09:36. > :09:38.a desperate yearning in the electorate for real politics,

:09:39. > :09:42.purposeful politics and for the people to be represented. It is

:09:43. > :09:46.probably to the eternal shame of labour that they gave up that role

:09:47. > :09:49.and other people are now taking it upon themselves. How would you

:09:50. > :09:54.assess the state of the Labour Party? The problem is that it was

:09:55. > :09:57.demolished by the SNP in 2011 and what they should have done since

:09:58. > :10:01.then and in other circumstances is take a real look within themselves

:10:02. > :10:05.and brought forward new talent and policies and watch out what they

:10:06. > :10:11.stood for. They've been unable to do that because they are locked in a

:10:12. > :10:15.constitutional row. It is the plan of the Nationalists to fight the

:10:16. > :10:17.first Scottish general election as an independent nation as a

:10:18. > :10:22.nationalist party with its own programme. You don't all go your own

:10:23. > :10:26.way. Why don't you do that? You have more on your main reason to be, so

:10:27. > :10:32.why not go, left, right and centre question you are presuming you don't

:10:33. > :10:35.go the one-way. I do not see the function of the SNP after the yes

:10:36. > :10:40.vote. I think it is clear that there is an SNP under Nicola Sturgeon an

:10:41. > :10:43.SNP which attracts votes from the left and that is the one for me

:10:44. > :10:46.Whether that is called the SNP or something else, I don't know. I

:10:47. > :10:51.think the assumption that we are going into a mirror of old politics

:10:52. > :10:59.in a new world is just fundamentally flawed. That is interesting. Let's

:11:00. > :11:02.just bring in the English dimensional. In many ways, England

:11:03. > :11:07.has not spoken in this referendum campaign. Whether it is yes or no,

:11:08. > :11:11.it will, and to give you a flavour of what some in England might be

:11:12. > :11:16.thinking was saying, here is a clip from John Redwood. We are fed up

:11:17. > :11:20.with this lopsided devolution, this unfair devolution. Scotland gets

:11:21. > :11:23.first-class Devolution, Wales gets second-class devolution and England

:11:24. > :11:27.gets nothing. If Wales wants the same as us, they should have it and

:11:28. > :11:31.then there would be commonality so we could discuss and decide in our

:11:32. > :11:38.own countries, in our own assemblies in Parliament, all those things that

:11:39. > :11:41.are devolved. George, it was clear that if Scotland voted yes for

:11:42. > :11:45.independence it has huge implications for England than the

:11:46. > :11:49.UK, but it's also clear particularly after Gordon Brown's intervention,

:11:50. > :11:53.even if it is no, it has huge applications. You are, I suggest,

:11:54. > :11:59.agreeing with John Redwood that there should be an English boys It

:12:00. > :12:03.would be a step too far for me to agree with him -- English voice I

:12:04. > :12:10.appreciate I might have gone out on a limb. He is the voice of Mars the

:12:11. > :12:14.Balkan from Mars. My own constituents in Bradford are asking,

:12:15. > :12:18.what about us? All these things being done, all the extra mile is

:12:19. > :12:23.being travel to Scotland, what about us? Labour would be well advised to

:12:24. > :12:29.adjust quickly on this so that the John Redwood types do not steal the

:12:30. > :12:33.show. England has yes to use -- yet to speak. It's interesting when you

:12:34. > :12:40.hear a Labour backbencher in Scotland talk about a command paper.

:12:41. > :12:43.He is not in government. Gordon Brown is going round Scotland

:12:44. > :12:47.promising things and he has absolutely no chance of delivering

:12:48. > :12:52.them. The MPs in England will say, hey, what are you talking about We

:12:53. > :12:56.have never been discussed with that? We have not agreed with that. The

:12:57. > :13:00.only way people in Scotland will get the powers they deserve is by voting

:13:01. > :13:05.yes. Crystal ball time, Tommy, you think it is 60/40. I will stick with

:13:06. > :13:10.it, because we have an unprecedented election. 97% of Scotland is

:13:11. > :13:16.registered to vote. The working class will vote in numbers never

:13:17. > :13:23.voted before. George? 55/45 for our side. And if there is a rogue poll,

:13:24. > :13:27.the tek Levesley polled -- technically flawed poll, which

:13:28. > :13:30.should not be published because it is so flawed, then we would be

:13:31. > :13:33.stretching towards what I am predicting already. I think in the

:13:34. > :13:39.last few days we will reach that. Come on. If the no campaign can get

:13:40. > :13:45.the silent majority out, they will edge it. You think they will win,

:13:46. > :13:51.but how much? They cannot give up in a second, a moment or a mile. It is

:13:52. > :13:58.that close. It will be won by the passionate view. I will go for a

:13:59. > :14:05.narrow yes victory. I'm the George, 53 or 54% in favour of Joe -- no. --

:14:06. > :14:08.I am with George. I will leave you to argue about that later. Thank you

:14:09. > :14:11.for being with us on the special Sunday politics from Edinburgh.

:14:12. > :14:12.That's all from us today in Scotland.

:14:13. > :14:15.Don't forget the Daily Politics will have continuing coverage

:14:16. > :14:17.of the referendum campaign all this week on BBC2 at midday.

:14:18. > :14:21.On Thursday night Huw Edwards will be in Glasgow and I will be

:14:22. > :14:24.in London to bring you live coverage of the results on BBC1 from 10. 0 pm

:14:25. > :14:28.on a historic night for Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom.

:14:29. > :14:31.And I'll be back next Sunday when we're live from the Labour

:14:32. > :14:38.Unless, of course, the referendum result is so tumultuous even the

:14:39. > :14:44.Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.