:00:37. > :00:43.Welcome to the Sunday Politics, coming to you live from Edinburgh.
:00:44. > :00:45.Terrorists who use the name Islamic State have carried out
:00:46. > :00:53.their threat to murder the British aid worker, David Haines.
:00:54. > :00:56.They released a video late last night, showing a masked man
:00:57. > :01:02.beheading Mr Haines, who was taken captive in Syria 18 months ago.
:01:03. > :01:04.The jihadist group have already beheaded two American journalists.
:01:05. > :01:07.Now it's threatening the life of a second British hostage.
:01:08. > :01:12.David Cameron described the murder as an act of pure evil.
:01:13. > :01:16.President Obama said the US stood shoulder to shoulder
:01:17. > :01:23.Alex Salmond says Scotland "stands on the cusp of history" as
:01:24. > :01:25.he predicts a historic and substantial victory in
:01:26. > :01:34.As the latest polls show the two sides neck and neck,
:01:35. > :01:36.I'll ask Yes campaigner and socialist Tommy Sheridan about his
:01:37. > :01:44.And after last week's last-minute interventions from Gordon Brown
:01:45. > :01:46.David Cameron, Ed Miliband and big business, I'll ask
:01:47. > :01:57.In the East Midlands, we have the it's enough to win over waverers.
:01:58. > :01:59.In the East Midlands, we have the fastest`growing economy in the
:02:00. > :01:59.country but step closer back to Parliament. Is
:02:00. > :02:13.it a lame-duck administration? Late last night, as most folk were
:02:14. > :02:16.preparing for bed, news broke that Islamic State extremists had carried
:02:17. > :02:18.out their threat to murder the The group released a video, similar
:02:19. > :02:23.to the ones in which two American journalists were decapitated,
:02:24. > :02:25.showing a masked man apparently beheading Mr Haines who was taken
:02:26. > :02:29.captive in Syria last year. The terrorist,
:02:30. > :02:31.who has a southern British accent, also threatened the life
:02:32. > :02:35.of a second hostage from the UK Mr Haines is
:02:36. > :02:37.the third Westerner to be killed His family have paid tribute to
:02:38. > :02:42.his humanitarian work; they say he David Cameron described the murder
:02:43. > :02:49.as an act of pure evil, and said his heart went out to Mr Haines
:02:50. > :02:52.family, who had shown extraordinary Mr Cameron went on to say,
:02:53. > :03:02."We will do everything in our power to hunt down these murderers
:03:03. > :03:04.and ensure they face justice, Mr Haines was born in England
:03:05. > :03:09.and brought up in Scotland. Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond
:03:10. > :03:26.condemned the killing on the Marr Well, it's an act of unspeakable
:03:27. > :03:31.barbarism that we have seen. Obviously our condolences go to the
:03:32. > :03:33.family members of David Haynes who have borne this with such fortitude
:03:34. > :03:39.in recent months -- David Alex Salmond was also asked
:03:40. > :03:48.whether he supported military action Haines there is no reason to believe
:03:49. > :03:58.whatsoever that China or Russia or any country will see their will to
:03:59. > :04:00.deal with this barbarism. There is a will for effective, international,
:04:01. > :04:07.legal action but it must come in that fashion, and I would urge that
:04:08. > :04:09.to be a consideration to develop a collective response to what is a
:04:10. > :04:10.threat to humanity. Our security correspondent
:04:11. > :04:23.Gordon Corera joins me now Gordon, as we speak, the Cobra
:04:24. > :04:28.emergency meeting is meeting yet again. It meets a lot these days. I
:04:29. > :04:32.would suggest that the options facing this committee and Mr Cameron
:04:33. > :04:35.are pretty limited. That's right. I think they are extremely limited.
:04:36. > :04:41.They have been all along in these hostage situations. We know, for
:04:42. > :04:45.instance, that British government policy is not to pay ransom is to
:04:46. > :04:49.kidnappers. Other Europeans states are thought to have done so to get
:04:50. > :04:54.hostages released, and also not to make substantive policy concessions
:04:55. > :04:59.to the groups, so while there might be contact, there won't be a lot of
:05:00. > :05:07.options left. We know the US in the past has looked at rescue missions
:05:08. > :05:11.and in July on operation to free the hostages, landing at the oil
:05:12. > :05:16.facility in Syria but finding no one there. If you look at the options,
:05:17. > :05:23.they are not great. That is the difficult situation which Cobra will
:05:24. > :05:27.have been discussing the last hour. Does this make it more likely,
:05:28. > :05:32.because it might have the direction the government was going in any way,
:05:33. > :05:37.that we join with the Americans in perhaps the regional allies in air
:05:38. > :05:43.strikes against Islamic State, not just in Iraq, but also in Syria We
:05:44. > :05:46.heard from President Obama outlining his strategy against Islamic State
:05:47. > :05:50.last week when he talked about building a coalition, about
:05:51. > :05:56.authorising air strikes. And training troops. We are still
:05:57. > :06:03.waiting to hear what exact role the UK will play in that. We know it
:06:04. > :06:11.will play a role because it has been arming the fishmonger forces but the
:06:12. > :06:15.question is, will it actually conduct military strikes in Iraq --
:06:16. > :06:28.arming the passion are there. We have not got a clear answer from
:06:29. > :06:31.government and that is something where they are ours to discuss what
:06:32. > :06:35.was around the table. It's possible we might learn some more today as a
:06:36. > :06:39.result of the Cobra meeting, but I think the government will be wanting
:06:40. > :06:42.to not be seen to suddenly rushed to a completely different policy as a
:06:43. > :06:47.result of one incident, however terrible it is. Whether it hardens
:06:48. > :06:50.their reserve -- resolved to play more active role in the coalition,
:06:51. > :06:56.that's possible, but we have to wait see to get the detail. -- wait and
:06:57. > :07:02.see. What the whole country would like to see would be British and
:07:03. > :07:06.American special forces going in and getting these guys. I think that
:07:07. > :07:11.would unite the nation. But that is very difficult, isn't it? It is As
:07:12. > :07:15.you saw with a rescue mission a few months ago, the problem is getting
:07:16. > :07:18.actionable intelligence on the ground at a particular moment. The
:07:19. > :07:22.theory is that the group of kidnappers are moving the hostages
:07:23. > :07:26.may be even every or few days, so you need intelligence and quickly
:07:27. > :07:30.and then you need to be able to get the team onto the ground into that
:07:31. > :07:34.time frame. That is clearly a possibility and something they will
:07:35. > :07:38.be looking at, but it certainly challenging, particularly when you
:07:39. > :07:42.have a group like this operating within its own state, effectively,
:07:43. > :07:48.and knowing that other people are looking very hard for it and doing
:07:49. > :07:50.everything they can to hide. Gordon, thank you very much.
:07:51. > :07:55.Clegg dropped everything and headed to Scotland when a poll last Sunday
:07:56. > :08:01.gave the YES vote its first ever lead in this prolonged referendum
:08:02. > :08:04.If their reaction looked like panic, that's because it was.
:08:05. > :08:06.Until last weekend, though the polls had been narrowing,
:08:07. > :08:09.the consensus was still that NO would carry the day.
:08:10. > :08:18.The new consensus is that it's too close to call.
:08:19. > :08:25.If we look back at the beginning of the year, public opinion in Scotland
:08:26. > :08:28.was fairly settled. The no campaign had a commanding lead across the
:08:29. > :08:32.opinion polls, excluding the undecided voters. At one point, at
:08:33. > :08:39.the end of last year, an average of 63% backed the no campaign and only
:08:40. > :08:44.37% supported a yes vote. As we move into 2014 and up to this week, you
:08:45. > :08:48.can see a clear trend emerging as the lead for the no campaign gets
:08:49. > :08:51.narrower and narrower and the average of the most recent polls has
:08:52. > :08:55.the contest hanging in the balance. There was a poll a week ago that put
:08:56. > :09:01.the Yes campaign in the lead for the first time, 51% against 49%, but
:09:02. > :09:06.that lead was not reflected in the other polls last week. For polls
:09:07. > :09:17.were published last night, one by Salvation, for the macro-2 campaign
:09:18. > :09:21.-- Better Together campaign, and there was another that gave a one
:09:22. > :09:27.percentage point different. ICM have the yes campaign back in the lead at
:09:28. > :09:33.54% and the no campaign at 46%, but their sample size was 705 Scottish
:09:34. > :09:41.adults, smaller than usual. Another suggests that the contest remains on
:09:42. > :09:47.a knife edge with 49.4% against 50.6%. When fed into the poll of
:09:48. > :09:54.polls the figures average out with yes at 49% and polls -- no at 5 %.
:09:55. > :09:58.But some people think 18% are undecided, and it is how they vote
:09:59. > :09:59.gets -- when they get to the polling booths that could make all the
:10:00. > :10:01.difference. campaigner and Respect Party MP
:10:02. > :10:10.George Galloway. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. Big
:10:11. > :10:13.business, big oil, big banks, the Tories, the Orange order, all
:10:14. > :10:18.against Scottish independence. You sure you are on right side? Yes
:10:19. > :10:22.because the interests of working people are in staying together. This
:10:23. > :10:26.is a troubled moment in a marriage, a very long marriage, in which some
:10:27. > :10:31.good things and bad things have been achieved together. And there is no
:10:32. > :10:34.doubt that the crockery is being thrown around the house of the
:10:35. > :10:38.minute. But I believe that the underlying interests of working
:10:39. > :10:42.people are on working on the relationship rather than divorce. I
:10:43. > :10:46.have been divorced. It's a very messy, acrimonious, bitter affair
:10:47. > :10:49.and it's particularly bad for the children will stop that's why I am
:10:50. > :10:54.here. You talk about working people, and particularly Scottish working
:10:55. > :10:58.people, they seem to have concluded that the social democracy they want
:10:59. > :11:05.to create cannot now be done in a UK context. Why should they not have a
:11:06. > :11:09.shot of going it alone? Because the opposite will happen. Separation
:11:10. > :11:13.will cause a race to the bottom in taxation. Alex Salmond has already
:11:14. > :11:17.announced he will cut the taxes on companies, corporation tax, down to
:11:18. > :11:23.3% hello whatever it is in the rest of these islands. And business will
:11:24. > :11:29.only be attracted to come here, country of 5 million people on if
:11:30. > :11:34.there is low regulation, low public expenditure, low levels of taxation
:11:35. > :11:38.for them will stop you cannot have Scandinavian social democracy on
:11:39. > :11:41.Texan levels of taxation. The British government, as will be, the
:11:42. > :11:46.rest of the UK, they will race Alex Salmond to the bottom. If he cuts it
:11:47. > :11:53.by three, they will cut it by four. And so on. So whether some people
:11:54. > :11:57.cannot see it clearly yet or not, the interests of the working people
:11:58. > :12:01.on both sides of the border would be gravely damaged by separation. Let's
:12:02. > :12:04.take the interest of the working people. As you know, as well as
:12:05. > :12:09.anyone, the coalition is in fermenting both a series of cuts and
:12:10. > :12:13.reforms in welfare, and labour, Westminster Labour, has only limited
:12:14. > :12:18.plans to reverse any of that. Surely if you want to preserve the welfare
:12:19. > :12:23.state as it is, independence is the way to do it. For the reasons I just
:12:24. > :12:27.explain, I don't believe that. But Ed Miliband will be along in a
:12:28. > :12:34.minute. He will be along in May The polls indicate... They say he is
:12:35. > :12:39.only four or 5%, that is the average. Like the referendum, the
:12:40. > :12:43.next general election could be nip and tuck. I don't, myself, think
:12:44. > :12:47.that the time of David Cameron as Prime Minister is for much longer. I
:12:48. > :12:51.think there will be a Labour government in the spring and the
:12:52. > :12:57.Labour government in London and a stronger Scottish Parliament, super
:12:58. > :13:03.Devo Max, that is now on the table. That is the best arrangement of
:13:04. > :13:06.people in the country. But the people of Scotland surely cannot
:13:07. > :13:11.base a decision on independence on your feeling that Labour might win
:13:12. > :13:15.the next general election. It is my feeling. When the Tories were beaten
:13:16. > :13:19.on the bedroom tax last week in the house, it was written all over the
:13:20. > :13:25.faces of the government side not only that they were headed for
:13:26. > :13:34.defeat, but probably a massive fishy -- Fisher. I think the race to the
:13:35. > :13:40.bottom that I have proper size will mean that the welfare state will be
:13:41. > :13:46.a distant memory quite soon. The cuts and the run on the Scottish
:13:47. > :13:50.economy here in Edinburgh, the financial services industry, that
:13:51. > :13:55.will be gravely damage. The Ministry of Defence jobs in Scotland
:13:56. > :14:02.decimated, probably ended, more or less. It will be a time of cuts and
:14:03. > :14:06.austerity, maybe super austerity in an independent Scotland. You
:14:07. > :14:09.mentioned defence. What about nuclear weapons? The Tories and
:14:10. > :14:13.Labour will keep them. You are against them. Surely the only way to
:14:14. > :14:20.be rid of them in Scotland is by independence. But you are not rid of
:14:21. > :14:24.them by telling them down the river. The danger would be the same --
:14:25. > :14:30.telling them down the river. The danger would be the same. Nuclear
:14:31. > :14:35.radiation does not respect Alex Salmond's national boundaries. They
:14:36. > :14:38.would be committed to immediately joining NATO, which is bristling
:14:39. > :14:42.with nuclear weapons and is what -- involved in wars across the
:14:43. > :14:47.Atlantic. So anyone looking for a peace option will have to elect a
:14:48. > :14:51.government in Britain as a whole that will get rid of nuclear weapons
:14:52. > :14:54.and get out of military entanglements. We are in one again
:14:55. > :15:01.now. I have been up the whole night, till 5am, dealing with some of the
:15:02. > :15:05.consequences and implications of the grave international matter that you
:15:06. > :15:12.opened the show with. David Haines and the fate of the hostage still in
:15:13. > :15:15.their hands. There are many other hostages as well. And there are many
:15:16. > :15:21.people dying who are neither British nor American. I have, somehow, been
:15:22. > :15:26.drawn into this matter. And it showed me, again, that the world is
:15:27. > :15:35.interdependent. It is absolutely riven with division and hatred, and
:15:36. > :15:40.this is the worst possible time to be opting out of the world to set up
:15:41. > :15:47.a small mini-state on the promises of Alex Salmond of social democracy
:15:48. > :15:49.funded by Texan taxes. Let's, for the sake of the next question,
:15:50. > :15:53.assume that everything you have told us is true. Why is your side
:15:54. > :16:10.squandering a 20 point lead? I will have a great deal to say
:16:11. > :16:18.about that, whatever the result This is very much a Scottish Labour
:16:19. > :16:23.project, is that not a condemnation of Scottish Labour? It is
:16:24. > :16:40.potentially on its deathbed. The country breaking up, the principal
:16:41. > :16:45.responsibility will be on them. And the pitiful, absolutely pitiful job
:16:46. > :16:52.that has been made of defending a 300-year-old relationship in this
:16:53. > :16:57.island by the Scottish Labour leadership is really terrible for me
:16:58. > :17:02.to behold, even though I'm no longer one of them. I don't know how they
:17:03. > :17:07.are going to get out of this deathbed. Do you agree that if this
:17:08. > :17:10.referendum is lost by your side it will be because traditional
:17:11. > :17:15.working-class Labour voters, particularly in the west of
:17:16. > :17:20.Scotland, have abundant Labour and decided to vote for independence?
:17:21. > :17:26.Without a doubt, the number of Labour voters intending to vote yes
:17:27. > :17:31.is disturbingly high. Even just months ago during the European
:17:32. > :17:36.Parliament elections, swathes of people who didn't vote SNP will be
:17:37. > :17:42.voting yes on Thursday. That is a grave squandering of a great legacy
:17:43. > :17:48.of Scottish Labour history, which history will decree as
:17:49. > :17:55.unforgivable. If Labour is to get out of its deathbed in Scotland it
:17:56. > :18:00.will have to become Labour again. Real Labour again. I am ready to
:18:01. > :18:08.help them with that. My goodness, they need help with it. I wonder if
:18:09. > :18:12.it isn't just a failure of Labour in Scotland. People all over Britain
:18:13. > :18:16.are increasingly fed up with the Westminster system, but it is only
:18:17. > :18:21.the Scots who currently have the chance to break free from it, so why
:18:22. > :18:27.shouldn't they? That is exactly right. They see a parliament of
:18:28. > :18:34.expenses cheats led by Lord snooty and the Bullingdon club elite,
:18:35. > :18:39.carrying through austerity for many but not for themselves and they are
:18:40. > :18:44.repulsed by it. They need change, but you can go backwards and call it
:18:45. > :18:50.change but it will be worse than the situation you have now. A lot of
:18:51. > :18:57.Scottish people don't buy that. It is a big gamble. If I were poised to
:18:58. > :19:02.put my family's life savings on the roulette table in Las Vegas, my wife
:19:03. > :19:06.would not be scaremongering if she pointed out the potential
:19:07. > :19:11.consequences if I'd lost. She would not be negative by telling me that
:19:12. > :19:14.is my children's money I am risking. If I jumped off this roof it would
:19:15. > :19:19.change my point of view, but it would be worse than the point of
:19:20. > :19:24.view I have now. There is another issue here because the Scots are
:19:25. > :19:31.being asked to gamble on the Westminster parties, which they are
:19:32. > :19:35.already suspicious of, of delivering home rule. Alistair Darling could
:19:36. > :19:40.not even tell me if Ed Balls had signed off on more income tax powers
:19:41. > :19:44.for Scotland, so that is a gamble for the Scots. I feel the British
:19:45. > :19:50.state has had such a shake out of all this that they would be beyond
:19:51. > :19:57.idiots, they would be insane now to risk all of this flaring up again
:19:58. > :20:02.because whatever happens, if we win on Thursday, it is going to be
:20:03. > :20:08.narrowly. It will be a severe fissure in Scotland. A great deal of
:20:09. > :20:14.unpleasantness that we are already aware of. That could turn but we're
:20:15. > :20:20.still. It would be dicing with death, playing with fire, to let
:20:21. > :20:25.Scottish people down after Thursday if we narrowly win. If you narrowly
:20:26. > :20:30.win, and if there are moves to this home rule Mr Brown has been talking
:20:31. > :20:38.about, England hasn't spoken yet on this. Whilst England would probably
:20:39. > :20:44.not want to stop -- stop Scotland getting this, they would say, what
:20:45. > :20:52.about us? It could delay the whole procedure. It is necessary, you are
:20:53. > :20:57.right. England should have home rule, and I screamed at Scottish
:20:58. > :21:03.Labour MPs going into the vote to introduce tuition fees in England. I
:21:04. > :21:08.told them this was a constitutional monstrosity, as well as a crime
:21:09. > :21:15.against young people in England It was risking everything. We are led
:21:16. > :21:22.by idiots. Our leaders are not James Bonds, they are Austin powers. We
:21:23. > :21:23.need to change the leadership, not rip up a 300-year-old marriage.
:21:24. > :21:29.Thank you. It's been one of the longest and
:21:30. > :21:31.hardest fought political campaigns in history, with Alex Salmond firing
:21:32. > :21:35.the starting gun on the referendum Adam's been stitching together
:21:36. > :21:50.the key moments of the campaign It is the other thing drawing people
:21:51. > :21:56.to the Scottish parliament, the new great tapestry of Scotland. It is
:21:57. > :22:01.the story of battles won and lost, Scottish moments, British moments,
:22:02. > :22:07.famous Scots, and not so famous Scots. There is even a panel
:22:08. > :22:11.dedicated to the rise of the SNP. Alex Salmond's majority in the
:22:12. > :22:16.elections in 2011 made the referendum inevitable. It became
:22:17. > :22:21.reality when he and David Cameron did a deal in Edinburgh one year
:22:22. > :22:26.later. The Scottish Government set out its plans for independence in
:22:27. > :22:35.this book, just a wish list to some, a sacred text to others. This White
:22:36. > :22:39.Paper is the most detailed improvements that any people have
:22:40. > :22:44.ever been offered in the world as a basis for becoming an independent
:22:45. > :22:50.country. The no campaign, called Better Together, united the Tories,
:22:51. > :22:55.Labour and the Lib Dems under the leadership of Alistair Darling. Then
:22:56. > :22:58.the Scottish people were bombarded with two years of photo
:22:59. > :23:03.opportunities and a lot of campaigning. For the no campaign,
:23:04. > :23:08.Jim Murphy went on tour but took a break when he was egged and his
:23:09. > :23:14.events were often hijacked by yes campaigners who were accused of
:23:15. > :23:18.being intimidating. In turn, they accused the no campaign of using
:23:19. > :23:26.scare tactics. Things heated up when the TV dinner -- during the TV
:23:27. > :23:32.debate. Fever pitch was reached one week ago when one poll suggested the
:23:33. > :23:36.yes campaign was in the lead for the first time. The three main
:23:37. > :23:40.Westminster leaders ditched PMQs to head north. I think people can feel
:23:41. > :23:45.it is like a general election, that you make a decision and five years
:23:46. > :23:49.later you can make another decision if you are fed up with the Tories,
:23:50. > :23:58.give them a kick... This is totally different. And Labour shelved not
:23:59. > :24:03.quite 100 MPs onto the train, Alex Salmond took a helicopter instead.
:24:04. > :24:09.This is about the formation of the NHS. A big theme of the yes campaign
:24:10. > :24:20.is that changes to the NHS in Linden -- in England would lead to
:24:21. > :24:26.privatisation in Scotland. Alex Salmond's plan to share the pound
:24:27. > :24:29.was trashed by big names. There were other big question is, what would
:24:30. > :24:34.happen to military hardware like Trident based on the Clyde? Would an
:24:35. > :24:40.independent Scotland be able to join the EU? And how much oil was left
:24:41. > :24:45.underneath the North Sea? This panel is about famous Scots, we
:24:46. > :24:52.have Annie Lennox, Stephen Hendry, Sean Connery. I cannot see Gordon
:24:53. > :24:57.Brown. These are big changes we are proposing to strengthen the Scottish
:24:58. > :25:01.parliament, but at the same time to stay as part of the UK. A regular on
:25:02. > :25:06.the campaign, he was front and centre when things got close,
:25:07. > :25:11.unveiling a timetable for more devolution. People wondered whether
:25:12. > :25:15.Ed Miliband was able to reach the parts of Scotland Labour leader
:25:16. > :25:18.should reach, and at Westminster some Tories pondered whether David
:25:19. > :25:22.Cameron could stay as prime minister if there was a yes vote. This
:25:23. > :25:28.tapestry is nonpartisan so it is a good place to get away from it all
:25:29. > :25:40.but it is crystallising voters' views. Look at what we have
:25:41. > :25:42.contributed to Great Britain, and I am British and I hope to be staying
:25:43. > :25:45.British. This is what people from Scotland have done, taken to the
:25:46. > :25:50.rest of the world in many cases and I think I am going to vote yes. I am
:25:51. > :25:54.so inspired by it. It has certainly inspired me to have a go at
:25:55. > :26:00.stitching. How long do you think it would take to do the whole thing? I
:26:01. > :26:04.would say to put aside maybe 30 hours of stitching. Maybe by the
:26:05. > :26:06.time I am done, we will know more about how the fabric of the nation
:26:07. > :26:10.might be changing. And I've been joined
:26:11. > :26:13.by yes campaigner and convenor of Scotland's Solidarity socialist
:26:14. > :26:25.party, Tommy Sheridan. An economy dependent on oil, the
:26:26. > :26:30.Queen as head of state, membership of the world 's premier nuclear
:26:31. > :26:41.alliance of capitalist nations is that the socialist Scotland you are
:26:42. > :26:44.fighting for? No, that is the SNP's prospectus and they are entitled to
:26:45. > :26:50.put forward their vision, but it is not mine or that of the majority of
:26:51. > :26:56.Scotland. We will find out in two years. On Thursday we are not voting
:26:57. > :27:02.for a political party, we are voting for our freedom as a country. That
:27:03. > :27:05.is why people are going to vote yes on Thursday. A lot of people are
:27:06. > :27:11.voting for what you call freedom because they think it will be more
:27:12. > :27:15.Scotland. You have already got free prescriptions, no tuition fees, free
:27:16. > :27:20.care for the elderly. You might not in future have that if public
:27:21. > :27:25.spending is overdependent on the price of oil, over which you have no
:27:26. > :27:29.control. We don't have to worry about one single resource, we
:27:30. > :27:36.already have 20% of the fishing stock in Europe. We already have 25%
:27:37. > :27:47.of the wind, wave and solar power generation. We, as an independent
:27:48. > :27:52.country, have huge resources, natural resources but also people
:27:53. > :27:56.resources. We have five first-class universities, food and beverages
:27:57. > :28:00.industry which is the envy of the world. We have the ability to
:28:01. > :28:04.produce the resources on the revenues that won't just maintain
:28:05. > :28:08.the health service and education but it will develop health and
:28:09. > :28:13.education. I don't want to stand still, I want to redistribute
:28:14. > :28:20.wealth. But all of the projections of public spending for an
:28:21. > :28:25.independent Scotland show that to keep spending at the current level
:28:26. > :28:30.you need a strong price of oil and you are dependent on this commodity
:28:31. > :28:35.which goes up and down and sideways. That is a gamble. I have got to
:28:36. > :28:39.laugh because I have been told the most pessimistic is that in 40 years
:28:40. > :28:46.the oil is running out, panic stations! If you were told by the
:28:47. > :28:51.BBC you could only guarantee employment for the next 40 years you
:28:52. > :28:57.would be over the moon. I am talking about in the next five. You need 50%
:28:58. > :29:02.of your revenues to come from oil to continue spending and that is not a
:29:03. > :29:09.guarantee. Of course it is, the minimum survival of the oil is 0
:29:10. > :29:24.years. Please get your viewers to go onto the Internet and look at the
:29:25. > :29:30.website called oilandgas.com. The West Coast has 100 years of oil to
:29:31. > :29:33.be extracted. It hasn't been done because in 1981 Michael Heseltine
:29:34. > :29:41.said we cannot extract the oil because we have Trident going up and
:29:42. > :29:51.down there. Let's get rid of Trident and extract the oil. You are a trot
:29:52. > :29:56.right, why have you failed to learn his famous dictum, socialism in one
:29:57. > :30:01.country is impossible. Revolutions and change are not just single
:30:02. > :30:05.event. What will happen here on Thursday is a democratic revolution.
:30:06. > :30:10.The people are fed up of being patronised and lied to by this mob
:30:11. > :30:16.in Westminster who have used and abused us for far too long. The
:30:17. > :30:20.smaller people now have a voice What about socialism in one
:30:21. > :30:30.country? Mr Trotsky warned you against that. The no campaign
:30:31. > :30:34.represents the past. The yes campaign represents the future. That
:30:35. > :30:39.is the truth of the matter. What we are going to do in an independent
:30:40. > :30:46.Scotland is tackle inequality and a scourge of low pay. If we vote no on
:30:47. > :30:52.Thursday, there will be more low pay on Friday, more poverty and food
:30:53. > :30:58.banks on Friday. I'm not going to be lectured by these big banks, you
:30:59. > :31:06.vote less -- yes and we will leave the country! The food banks will be
:31:07. > :31:11.the ones closing. If you got your way, for the type of Scotland you
:31:12. > :31:17.would like to see, state control of business, nationalisation of the
:31:18. > :31:24.Manx, the roads to Carlisle will be clogged with people
:31:25. > :31:32.Yes, hoping to come into Scotland, because in their hearts, the
:31:33. > :31:37.Scottish people know that England want to see the people having the
:31:38. > :31:40.bottle. The working class people in Liverpool, Newcastle, outside of
:31:41. > :31:44.London, they are saying good on the jocks that are taking on big
:31:45. > :31:48.business. When we are independent and investing in social housing the
:31:49. > :31:53.people of England will say, we can do that as well, and they will
:31:54. > :31:56.rediscover the radical tradition. In wanting to build socialism in one
:31:57. > :32:00.country, it really means you are fighting for the few, rather than
:32:01. > :32:04.the many. You are bailing out of the socialist Battle for Britain. You
:32:05. > :32:12.think it will be easier to make it work. Think globally, act locally
:32:13. > :32:16.and we will build socialism in Scotland but I wanted across the
:32:17. > :32:20.world. I won my brothers and sisters in England and Wales to be
:32:21. > :32:24.encouraged by what we do so they can reject the Westminster consensus as
:32:25. > :32:28.well -- I want. We had the three Stooges coming up to London, three
:32:29. > :32:32.millionaires united on one thing, austerity. Doesn't matter whether Ed
:32:33. > :32:36.Miliband wins the next election he said he would stick to the story
:32:37. > :32:42.spending cuts. Why vote for Ed Miliband? You wouldn't trust him to
:32:43. > :32:46.run a bath, not a country. Let's see if this is realistic, this great
:32:47. > :32:50.socialist vision. At the last Scottish election, the Socialist
:32:51. > :32:56.party got 8000 votes. The Conservatives got 30 times more
:32:57. > :33:00.votes. Where is the appetite in Scotland for your Marxist ideology
:33:01. > :33:03.question we might not win it. But do you know what, see in two years
:33:04. > :33:18.time. See when we have the Scottish general election. You won't -- you
:33:19. > :33:24.are saying you might win and you went to the Holyrood election and
:33:25. > :33:27.got 8000 Pope -- votes. The SNP won a democratic election and then won
:33:28. > :33:31.the 2011 election and you know why they won? Because they picked up the
:33:32. > :33:35.clothes that the Labour Party has thrown away. They picked up the
:33:36. > :33:43.close of social democracy and protecting the health service was --
:33:44. > :33:47.service. There are people in the SNP who believe in public ownership and
:33:48. > :33:50.people in the SNP who believe in the NHS should be written into a
:33:51. > :33:54.constitution as never for sale people in the the SNP that think the
:33:55. > :33:59.Royal mail should return to public ownership. That is there in black
:34:00. > :34:02.and white. Do you agree with George Galloway that this is potentially a
:34:03. > :34:08.crisis for Scottish Labour? Scottish Labour is finished. They are
:34:09. > :34:12.absolutely finished. George is right in that. Scottish Labour is
:34:13. > :34:15.finished. The irony of ironies is, Labour in Scotland has more chance
:34:16. > :34:21.of recovery in an independent Scotland that they have in a no
:34:22. > :34:25.vote. Labour in Scotland in an independent country will have to
:34:26. > :34:29.rediscover the traditions of Keir Hardie, the ideas of Jimmy Maxon,
:34:30. > :34:36.because right now, they are to the right of the SNP as a political
:34:37. > :34:40.party. I understand the socialist vision, but it is where the appetite
:34:41. > :34:46.is. And you look at the independence people in Scotland. One of your
:34:47. > :34:52.colleagues, Brian Souter, a man who fought against the appeal -- repeal
:34:53. > :34:56.of homosexual rights in Scotland. Another of your allies would seem to
:34:57. > :35:03.be Rupert Murdoch, the man who engineered your downfall. You say he
:35:04. > :35:08.engineered your downfall, but I m still here and his newspaper has
:35:09. > :35:12.closed. Whether it Rupert Murdoch, Brian Souter, or any other
:35:13. > :35:15.millionaire supporting independence, I couldn't care less. This boat on
:35:16. > :35:22.Thursday is not about millionaires, it is about the millions. -- this
:35:23. > :35:27.vote. We will not be abused any young -- longer. Would you rather
:35:28. > :35:32.not have their support? I couldn't care about the support. You know who
:35:33. > :35:35.is supporting the union. It is the unions of the big businesses, the
:35:36. > :35:43.BNP, UKIP, they are the ones who support it. You are giving me a
:35:44. > :35:46.stray that has wandered into the campaign and are you seriously going
:35:47. > :35:50.to argue with me that the establishment isn't united to try
:35:51. > :35:55.and save the union? That is what they are trying to be. The BBC, you
:35:56. > :35:58.have been a disgrace in your coverage of the campaign. Not you
:35:59. > :36:03.personally. You don't have editorial control. The BBC coverage,
:36:04. > :36:09.generally, has been a disgrace and the people. Oil and gas, go and look
:36:10. > :36:12.at that, why is that not feature. Why is the idea of 100 years of oil
:36:13. > :36:17.not featured in the campaign. Because the BBC does not want to see
:36:18. > :36:22.it. Are you getting in your excuses if you lose? You better be kidding.
:36:23. > :36:28.Is this the face of somebody looking to lose. We are going to win, 6 /40.
:36:29. > :36:33.Absolutely. There is a momentum that you guys are not seeing on the
:36:34. > :36:37.working-class housing estates. Working class people are fed up
:36:38. > :36:45.being taken for granted fed up with the lives of people dragging us into
:36:46. > :36:49.tax cuts, bedroom tax for the poor. They will have power on Thursday,
:36:50. > :36:53.and they will use it and vote for freedom. Are you happy with the way
:36:54. > :36:58.the BBC has treated you today? So far, yes. I have still not been
:36:59. > :37:03.offered a Coffey, but that might happen. That is an obvious example
:37:04. > :37:25.In the East Midlands, our economy you later with George Galloway.
:37:26. > :37:30.In the East Midlands, our economy leads the UK economy but who is
:37:31. > :37:36.feeling the benefit? There are a number of reasons, a
:37:37. > :37:40.recovering economy, governmdnt investment as well as our own, they
:37:41. > :37:48.have all played their part hn solidifying the economic recovery. I
:37:49. > :37:52.am hearing not, I am feeling better off, people are actually fedling
:37:53. > :37:57.sort of desperate as well. Forget the Scottish vote, is it time
:37:58. > :38:02.for the East Midlands to go it alone?
:38:03. > :38:11.Might it be worth the East Lidlands going for independent? Independent
:38:12. > :38:18.Care Group `` kingdom of thd East Midlands, sounds good, doesn't it?
:38:19. > :38:22.Let's take a look at the news that the East Midlands has some of the
:38:23. > :38:26.worst care homes in the country according to a new report.
:38:27. > :38:31.Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire and Leicestershire came in the bottom
:38:32. > :38:37.ten when it came to failing care home inspections. In Nottinghamshire
:38:38. > :38:41.36% have failed tests, in Ddrbyshire one third failed and in
:38:42. > :38:45.Leicestershire it was 20%. Nottinghamshire county council say
:38:46. > :38:48.the figures are not a fair reflection because they havd a
:38:49. > :38:55.robust reporting system so problems are more likely to be reported. Liz,
:38:56. > :39:04.you Labour's Care Minister, on the face of it these figures ard
:39:05. > :39:11.worrying. `` you are. Anybody with an elderly relative at home will be
:39:12. > :39:19.worried. We need to look at improving the training of the care
:39:20. > :39:23.workforce, have robust systdms to make sure that problems are rooted
:39:24. > :39:26.out, and make sure that people who run failing care homes can't set
:39:27. > :39:30.them up somewhere else. I would like to see a stronger role for local
:39:31. > :39:39.councils, who are often closer to the care homes. Notts Countx council
:39:40. > :39:47.said it was misleading to s`y that the homes failed inspections because
:39:48. > :39:55.the tests look at a wide range of issues. Have I got a point? I am
:39:56. > :39:58.always in favour of openness and transparency because I think you can
:39:59. > :40:04.flush out problems and deal with them but we need to have proper care
:40:05. > :40:09.standards, proper qualifications and skills and real mechanisms to hold
:40:10. > :40:12.care providers to account. Ht sounds like it is bad news for people
:40:13. > :40:21.involved in care in the East Midlands. It should be of concern to
:40:22. > :40:27.all of us. We are all getting older. Shouldn't the government be doing
:40:28. > :40:35.more to help people? The minister in charge is going to set up a new
:40:36. > :40:40.inspection regime starting next year. That is going to be f`r more
:40:41. > :40:45.rigorous and I think it will give people confidence. I have vhsited
:40:46. > :40:49.care homes in my constituency, they are generally well`run, thex have
:40:50. > :40:55.caring staff, but if they are not they need to be scrutinised. In a
:40:56. > :41:01.lot of cases these are Labotr authorities. I want to come back to
:41:02. > :41:04.this point that Andrew said, yes, we need a tough and effective
:41:05. > :41:09.regulation system but regul`tion happens after the event, yot want to
:41:10. > :41:14.prevent the problem is happdning. I think we should see a proper system
:41:15. > :41:17.to make sure that the managdrs have the skills and qualifications they
:41:18. > :41:24.need, we need to look at tr`ining of the care workforce am and I think
:41:25. > :41:35.all councils can look at having a real care standards. Our region has
:41:36. > :41:38.the fastest jobs growth and fastest`growing GDP but doubts
:41:39. > :41:42.remain about whether people are feeling the benefits in wagd packets
:41:43. > :41:49.and job security, because wd have had the biggest fall in wagds in the
:41:50. > :41:58.country. It is go, go, go for the East
:41:59. > :42:03.Midlands economy. Anna Lo powered series starting this weekend is
:42:04. > :42:12.based at Donington Park. More than 150 high`tech jobs, the latdst boost
:42:13. > :42:18.for the area. We have government support through the loan scheme that
:42:19. > :42:25.helped will these schemes, `nd major commitment from the company have
:42:26. > :42:30.played their part in solidifying economic recovery. Donington Park is
:42:31. > :42:33.not the only winner in the dconomy because the East Midlands is
:42:34. > :42:37.expected to be the fastest region when it comes to job growth in the
:42:38. > :42:42.coming year. Figures out thhs week show that in the first thred months
:42:43. > :42:46.of the year the region was hn top gear. While Leicestershire was in
:42:47. > :42:52.pole position, the city of Leicester was in danger of being lappdd. The
:42:53. > :42:56.number of people claiming ott of work benefits has fallen
:42:57. > :43:05.dramatically but the number of people actually in work has also
:43:06. > :43:11.fallen. Gemma, `` Gemma has felt little economic improvement in her
:43:12. > :43:15.household. My husband wants to work but it is not realistic. Evdn
:43:16. > :43:23.clothing my children is mord expensive. Across`the`board,
:43:24. > :43:28.economic indicators in Leicdster West are worse for women th`n men
:43:29. > :43:36.when compared to the British average. The jobs many women want
:43:37. > :43:42.are in short supply and, whhle nationally only 6% of women are
:43:43. > :43:46.self`employed, here the figtre is so low it doesn't register in the
:43:47. > :43:50.government figures. I have been looking for work for four ydars and
:43:51. > :43:56.it is really difficult, I think more difficult for women because you have
:43:57. > :44:01.to juggle the children and work Are lots of people finding it dhfficult
:44:02. > :44:06.to find work? I work with a lot of people in the community and I am
:44:07. > :44:09.hearing not, I feel better off, some people are actually feeling sort of
:44:10. > :44:15.desperate as well. Business confidence is high but the wheels
:44:16. > :44:18.will need to spin a bit faster before everybody else feels
:44:19. > :44:23.confident about the economy. There is no doubt the econoly is
:44:24. > :44:28.growing and the East Midlands is doing far better than most. I am
:44:29. > :44:31.really pleased we are finally seeing growth coming back, I would have
:44:32. > :44:39.liked to have seen it earlidr but it is good news. As I think yot saw,
:44:40. > :44:42.the question is whether people are really feeling the benefit. The
:44:43. > :44:53.difficulty is that, with prhces rising much faster than wagds, and
:44:54. > :44:58.that having happened for fotr years, ordinary people are not seehng the
:44:59. > :45:02.benefit. In north`west Leicestershire we got hit in
:45:03. > :45:07.Labour's great recession, a 10% reduction... Caused by the banking
:45:08. > :45:22.crisis that happened across the world. Wages took three years to
:45:23. > :45:30.recover from their 2008 levdls. They dropped by 6.7%, the biggest in the
:45:31. > :45:35.country. It recovered three years later and it is growing,
:45:36. > :45:40.unemployment is down at 2%, we have seen a 14% reduction in my
:45:41. > :45:49.constituency, and youth unelployment is down 50%. Do you deny we have the
:45:50. > :45:57.worst figures for wages? Wage growth with an unemployment rate of 2%
:45:58. > :46:05.would be quite good. It was 3.6 against 3.2% across the UK. The big
:46:06. > :46:09.question for the future is, are we going to have an economy whdre
:46:10. > :46:14.everybody shares in the bendfits of more jobs and growth and businesses
:46:15. > :46:22.being more successful, or are we going to end up competing in a low
:46:23. > :46:27.skill, low wage economy? Much of the growth is coming from retail and
:46:28. > :46:31.distribution. Yes, about a third of the jobs in my constituency are
:46:32. > :46:38.related to distribution bec`use we have very good communications and an
:46:39. > :46:44.airport... We really do need good, decent jobs, high skill, high wage.
:46:45. > :46:50.There is so much more we cotld do. Those jobs do exist, we saw in the
:46:51. > :46:55.report the manufacturing sector We are doing that by reforming the
:46:56. > :47:00.schools, when I came into office in 2010, over 15% of my workforce had
:47:01. > :47:08.no formal qualifications. That is down to just over 8%. I think we
:47:09. > :47:12.need something far bigger and bolder if we are really going to stcceed in
:47:13. > :47:18.the East Midlands and as a country. As we have proposed, we need to see
:47:19. > :47:25.much more power down to the regions and the cities, to link togdther the
:47:26. > :47:38.universities and get the right infrastructure in place, tr`nsform
:47:39. > :47:48.skills. An undoubtedly therd is going to be pressure on wagds in
:47:49. > :47:49.constituencies like mine. In Leicestershire there are far more
:47:50. > :47:53.jobs available than people unemployed. We need better
:47:54. > :47:57.communication links between city and county so that those people in the
:47:58. > :48:03.city who do not have a job can take the jobs in the county. The only way
:48:04. > :48:07.we are going to get the infrastructure, not just thd
:48:08. > :48:14.transport but the skills, wd need much more power and control down to
:48:15. > :48:19.the East Midlands. Also it hs the attitude of the local counchls.
:48:20. > :48:23.North`west Leicestershire, the county council, they are
:48:24. > :48:27.pro`business and it is a welcoming place for businesses. I am not sure
:48:28. > :48:34.that attitude is being shown in the city. Absolute rubbish, we `re
:48:35. > :48:40.passionate about supporting businesses, transforming skhlls
:48:41. > :48:50.They obviously don't believd you. We are making phenomenal improvements
:48:51. > :48:55.in our skills... Rather than descend into a party political row, there is
:48:56. > :48:58.a big question, which is wh`t you are seeing in the East Midl`nds is
:48:59. > :49:03.mirrored across the country, some places doing well, others not. We
:49:04. > :49:11.will only succeed if we all do well together. End of the party political
:49:12. > :49:15.broadcast. Never mind the Scottish refdrendum,
:49:16. > :49:20.maybe it is time to think about an independent East Midlands. Robert
:49:21. > :49:25.Shaw has written a book explaining how the East Midlands has ghven the
:49:26. > :49:30.world gravity, the Industri`l Revolution and even sex, cotrtesy of
:49:31. > :49:42.the H Lawrence. We asked hil how his vision would look. `` DH Lawrence.
:49:43. > :49:48.This is the southernmost pohnt that a Scottish army has ever cole in
:49:49. > :49:51.England. Legend has it that Bonnie Prince Charlie looked at thd East
:49:52. > :49:56.Midlands people and knew thdre was no way he would get passed. Like
:49:57. > :50:02.Scotland, the East Midlands does not always get the recognition ht
:50:03. > :50:06.deserves, so might it be worth the East Midlands going for
:50:07. > :50:12.independence? An independent kingdom of the East Midlands, sounds good,
:50:13. > :50:16.doesn't it? But why would wd want to be independent and who are we
:50:17. > :50:21.anyway? Most people here don't really know. This is from a tourist
:50:22. > :50:26.board survey night by the E`st Midlands tourist board, which does
:50:27. > :50:32.not exist any more. Correspondents summed it up as industrial, built
:50:33. > :50:41.up, heavily propagated, busx, no countryside, not touristy, `n
:50:42. > :50:46.romantic. `` not romantic. Ht is obviously not true but how do we
:50:47. > :50:54.change these attitudes. The first thing we can do is take control of
:50:55. > :50:59.the M1. Charge people to usd it at each end and bring the country to
:51:00. > :51:03.its knees. Because we are the Midlands we need a coastlind so
:51:04. > :51:08.let's make a grab for Skegndss. We would have an excellent source of
:51:09. > :51:16.fish and also we would have somewhere to go on holiday. How
:51:17. > :51:21.about jobs? We have everythhng an independent nation needs, v`st
:51:22. > :51:31.mineral resources, we could reopen the pits. North Nottinghamshire is
:51:32. > :51:36.rich in shale gas. How about reopening the knitwear factories?
:51:37. > :51:43.There was a time that peopld in England had nothing else to wear.
:51:44. > :51:48.From Derbyshire we could have Robert Lindsay as head of state from
:51:49. > :51:52.Leicestershire, Gary Lineker, and from Nottinghamshire Rebecc`
:51:53. > :52:03.Adlington. As for the issue of currency, we would not borrow with
:52:04. > :52:06.the pound, we would use the medieval ducat. We would need a propdr
:52:07. > :52:11.national flag. What is disthnct about the Midlands is that ht is in
:52:12. > :52:22.the middle so we could have a design that was all middle and no ddge As
:52:23. > :52:29.for national dress... That hs easy. So there you have it. Polithcally,
:52:30. > :52:34.economically, culturally, the East Midlands has everything it needs to
:52:35. > :52:38.be its own country. Next tile a Scottish army arrives at thhs bridge
:52:39. > :52:42.it is going to show its passport if it wants to get into the independent
:52:43. > :52:47.kingdom of the East Midlands. Robert Shaw, tongue firmly hn cheek.
:52:48. > :52:53.But of course there is a serious side to the debate. We are joined by
:52:54. > :52:58.Melanie Powell, and in? An dconomist from Derby University. If Scotland
:52:59. > :53:04.was to become independent, would it make any difference to us hdre?
:53:05. > :53:20.There are two macro elements, the short term and the uncertainty. ``
:53:21. > :53:24.two elements. Companies that are trading with Scotland could see a
:53:25. > :53:30.short`term problem there. There may be an effect on sterling and a
:53:31. > :53:41.further depreciation, which, of course, can effect export companies
:53:42. > :53:52.and benefit import companies. `` aspect. Even if there is a no vote
:53:53. > :53:56.there is still uncertainty. With a yes vote there would be a htge
:53:57. > :54:02.shift. Would things change hf there was a no vote? Yes, because even if
:54:03. > :54:07.there is the debate is going to change about regional power and the
:54:08. > :54:13.English Parliament that doesn't exist. As nurses have to de`l with
:54:14. > :54:18.that and they have to deal with how that might effect growth in the
:54:19. > :54:27.economy. I think a no vote will not be so damaging, with a yes vote
:54:28. > :54:35.there will be severe uncert`inty. Our MPs have been up to Scotland,
:54:36. > :54:39.how was it? It is a really tough campaign, people are really engaged,
:54:40. > :54:44.everybody knows it is happening people are talking about thd
:54:45. > :54:49.arguments. People feel passhonately on the doorstep, they want to
:54:50. > :54:54.engage. I think politically that is a good thing that it is going to go
:54:55. > :54:57.to the wire and I know that myself and my Labour colleagues will be
:54:58. > :55:06.fighting every step to keep the union. I felt that it is polarising
:55:07. > :55:12.and becoming slightly aggressive in parts between the yes and no
:55:13. > :55:17.campaigners. It is a bit of a civil war and they can be quite bloody.
:55:18. > :55:31.What does it mean for your constituents, do you think they are
:55:32. > :55:35.in gauge to buy it? `` engaged by it. I think there will be a further
:55:36. > :55:39.debate about devolution of controls throughout the rest of the TK and I
:55:40. > :55:46.think that is right. People want to have more of a say and more control
:55:47. > :55:54.over their lives. In the short term it will have an impact. It hs this
:55:55. > :56:01.uncertainty you were saying. How will that be felt in your areas I
:56:02. > :56:03.think there is a backlash on the government backbenches. We
:56:04. > :56:13.understand that David Cameron wants to keep the union together but by
:56:14. > :56:16.offering devolution max, it seems that Ed Miliband has had more to do
:56:17. > :56:26.with this than the backbenches. If we are not careful we will love to a
:56:27. > :56:37.situation where heads, Alex Salmond wins, tales, England loses. There is
:56:38. > :56:42.not just this risk and uncertainty, there is the risk and uncertainty of
:56:43. > :56:48.our membership of the Europdan Union, which companies and
:56:49. > :56:55.businesses are very concerndd about. I understand that the conservatives
:56:56. > :57:01.don't like the risk of uncertainty surrounding Scottish independence
:57:02. > :57:07.but they don't care about this uncertainty. If it is a no vote but
:57:08. > :57:13.only small one, I don't think that will get the question of thd table.
:57:14. > :57:23.Melanie, are we being compl`cent about the prospect of a yes vote?
:57:24. > :57:30.Should as Mrs have a plan rdady `` businesses have. Absolutely, if you
:57:31. > :57:37.are trading internationally or in Scotland you have two considered the
:57:38. > :57:42.risk. The cost of dealing whth the uncertainty will rise as thd
:57:43. > :57:54.uncertainty rises. If you are buying strawberries from Scotland xou might
:57:55. > :57:59.think, if there is a yes vote, will it be certain that Scotland will
:58:00. > :58:12.stay in the Euro? If not, m`ybe we should be Retera off planning to buy
:58:13. > :58:19.from Spain. `` be better off. Which way do you think it will go? That is
:58:20. > :58:25.a tough question. We were t`lking earlier about this. There is the
:58:26. > :58:34.psychology of decision making, most people are risk averse. Thex have
:58:35. > :58:37.the choice between certaintx and the uncertainty of the future and I
:58:38. > :58:43.think in the vote box a lot of people will shift towards the no.
:58:44. > :58:48.Time for a round`up of some of the other political stories in the East
:58:49. > :58:52.Midlands. We might not get independence but
:58:53. > :59:02.could we see one leader for all of our police forces. The Chief
:59:03. > :59:09.Constable of Nottinghamshird says the region should have thred forces.
:59:10. > :59:15.Overall health levels in thd county are good but there are pockdts of
:59:16. > :59:20.ill health. The Labour group ruling
:59:21. > :59:29.Nottinghamshire county council says it is business as usual despite
:59:30. > :59:34.losing its overall majority. One councillor resigned in protdst over
:59:35. > :59:39.cuts and they only had a majority of one.
:59:40. > :59:45.Two Nottinghamshire MPs say they will give away a pay rise to MPs'
:59:46. > :59:55.salaries. They say they will give the money to good causes.
:59:56. > :59:58.Have you spent your pay risd ready? Definitely not, don't think it
:59:59. > :00:07.should be given, will continue to fight against it. I am sure my
:00:08. > :00:14.ex`wife will find a use for it. The last time a sewer was built in
:00:15. > :00:18.London was 150 years ago, otherwise we would have a dirty River Thames.
:00:19. > :00:23.Andrew, back to you. Can
:00:24. > :00:28.the No campaign still pull it off? And even if they do is the whole
:00:29. > :00:32.of the UK now on the brink I'm joined now by John McTernan
:00:33. > :00:49.former adviser to Gordon Brown and Tony Blair, Alex Bell,
:00:50. > :00:52.former Head of Policy for the SNP and Lindsay McIntosh, the
:00:53. > :00:54.Times Scottish Political Editor And I'm delighted that Tommy
:00:55. > :01:00.and George have stayed too. No fighting has broken out either.
:01:01. > :01:09.Where No fighting has broken out either.
:01:10. > :01:09.have three full days to go No fighting has broken out either.
:01:10. > :01:17.polling day. What is the state of play? I think the poll of polls is
:01:18. > :01:21.accurate. 49 and 51%. What is vital is to bring the undecided voters in,
:01:22. > :01:26.and they properly have about 500,000. I think there are a lot of
:01:27. > :01:30.undecided people. I think they know which way they are leaning, but they
:01:31. > :01:37.haven't jumped. The hope of the no campaign is that they will go for
:01:38. > :01:43.the status quo on Thursday. How do you assess the state of the campaign
:01:44. > :01:48.now? The crucial thing is the big swing. The swing has come towards
:01:49. > :01:54.yes, so will the momentum carry it over the line? I will think it does,
:01:55. > :01:58.because it is an antiestablishment swell, and its people responding to
:01:59. > :02:02.standard Western as the politicians and saying that they want a new way
:02:03. > :02:08.-- Westminster politicians. I think that yes will sneak it. A referendum
:02:09. > :02:14.can be more important than a general election, and the Yes campaign have
:02:15. > :02:17.had the momentum. This was the week the momentum stopped. We started the
:02:18. > :02:20.week looking as though yes were going into the lead and then it
:02:21. > :02:24.stopped and most of the recent polls show a distinct lead for the no
:02:25. > :02:29.campaign. A distinct lead? It is one or two points. It is six in one
:02:30. > :02:34.poll, two in another, aiding another. The poll of polls is a good
:02:35. > :02:39.way of measuring, and is it statistically Nick -- nip and tuck?
:02:40. > :02:43.It is the week the momentum stopped. About a fifth of the electorate
:02:44. > :02:47.That will be a quarter of the turnout have voted already, by
:02:48. > :02:52.postal vote, and they are running very strongly towards no, so there
:02:53. > :02:56.is a whole bank of votes there. The postal votes are skewed to the over
:02:57. > :03:02.60s, and that is the demographic that the Yes campaign have had the
:03:03. > :03:07.biggest trouble with. Absolutely, the Yes campaign faced a challenge
:03:08. > :03:12.amongst the 16 and 18-year-olds and always based challenge with the
:03:13. > :03:17.older voters. Trust me, I was the decision the day the civil servants
:03:18. > :03:20.made it possible for the 16 to 18-year-olds to vote, and we said
:03:21. > :03:25.there was a victory for the no campaign in that alone. The young
:03:26. > :03:29.tend to be conservative by nature. I think again that to say that the
:03:30. > :03:37.momentum has stopped when you had a 20 point lead, this is a referendum
:03:38. > :03:41.whether people will speak and they will be heard. Except for the one
:03:42. > :03:46.poll which needs a huge health warning because of the size of the
:03:47. > :03:49.sample, the momentum is unquestionably all the way through
:03:50. > :03:56.August is going in the direction of yes. It hasn't quite continue to get
:03:57. > :04:00.to the 55/45 four yes that Alex Salmond thinks will be the result. I
:04:01. > :04:06.would agree with John. This was the momentum stalled. We saw the three
:04:07. > :04:11.leaders coming up, and that kept Alex Salmond off the front pages on
:04:12. > :04:14.the television and we had a raft of economic warnings which, although
:04:15. > :04:16.they were dismissed as scaremongering, they will have had a
:04:17. > :04:24.lot of traction with voters. What does the no campaign have to do in
:04:25. > :04:29.the final three days? It has to focus on the undecided,
:04:30. > :04:32.relentlessly. It has to do stick to the question of risk and keep
:04:33. > :04:35.pushing back on Alex Salmond to say it doesn't matter if the banks
:04:36. > :04:40.leave, it will all be all right on the night. The huge question amongst
:04:41. > :04:45.the undecided voters is about the economy. It is about jobs and
:04:46. > :04:48.currency, about business. That risk is what will crystallise in the
:04:49. > :04:53.ballot box on Thursday and that has to be the focus. What does the Yes
:04:54. > :04:57.campaign have to do? It has to drive home that the swing to the Yes
:04:58. > :05:01.campaign is motivated by people who want a different politics. They have
:05:02. > :05:03.decided amongst themselves that they want to change Scotland. The
:05:04. > :05:09.unfortunate thing is, even though the no campaign has had the chance
:05:10. > :05:12.to put up after proposals, they have failed. The Scottish people want
:05:13. > :05:17.their powers were a purpose and they say that only the Yes campaign can
:05:18. > :05:20.deliver that. There will be two days of relentless campaigning from
:05:21. > :05:23.today, Monday and Tuesday, then the media, the newspapers, including
:05:24. > :05:29.your own, will come out with the final poll, the ones that will be
:05:30. > :05:34.the closest to the day that the Scots actually go and vote. I think
:05:35. > :05:36.we will see more polling this week, but what is interesting is the
:05:37. > :05:40.extent to which the pollsters are picking up what is going on in the
:05:41. > :05:43.street. We know we have a huge number of voters who have never
:05:44. > :05:49.voted before and are not engage with politics, so what will they do? The
:05:50. > :05:53.third candidate in the election if I can would in this way, are the
:05:54. > :05:56.polls. They might have a lot of questions to answer on Friday
:05:57. > :05:59.morning. We were talking earlier with George and Tommy about the
:06:00. > :06:05.Labour Party's consequences in all of this. Gordon Brown, of course,
:06:06. > :06:09.has had a bit of a second coming as a result of this referendum. I just
:06:10. > :06:13.want to play a clip of Gordon Brown during the campaign and get a
:06:14. > :06:22.reaction. And I say this to Alex Salmond himself. Up until today I am
:06:23. > :06:25.outside front line politics. If he continues to peddle this deception,
:06:26. > :06:30.that the Scottish Parliament under his leadership, and he cannot do
:06:31. > :06:37.anything to improve the health service until he has a separate
:06:38. > :06:40.state, then I will want to join Joe Hanlon want in and securing the
:06:41. > :06:48.return of a Labour government as quickly as possible -- Johann
:06:49. > :06:51.Lamont. That was seen by some people as Gordon Brown implying he might
:06:52. > :06:54.stand for the Scottish Parliament. Whether it is yes or no, is Gordon
:06:55. > :07:01.Brown the saviour of Scottish Labour? I did a double black the
:07:02. > :07:04.other night -- double act with him the other night, and I must say he
:07:05. > :07:10.was a big beast all over again. He crossed the stage Meli dealt with
:07:11. > :07:14.the audience brilliantly. He has a certain presence, Gordon Brown, but
:07:15. > :07:20.he would really have to reinvent himself quite considerably. He is
:07:21. > :07:25.capable of doing, but the man who was the biographer of Jimmy Maxton,
:07:26. > :07:29.who pulled together the original red paper on Scotland, he would have to
:07:30. > :07:33.be that Gordon Brown rather than the Gordon Brown of some more melancholy
:07:34. > :07:36.events later. Tommy, you have both been critical of the state of the
:07:37. > :07:40.Scottish Labour Party. Rather than looking to Gordon Brown, which might
:07:41. > :07:44.be an interim solution, doesn't Scottish Labour have to find a new
:07:45. > :07:48.generation of people to reignite it? What George and I are agreed on and
:07:49. > :07:53.you have to remember this question of independence see us disagreeing
:07:54. > :07:57.passionately, and in most other things we find ourselves in
:07:58. > :08:00.agreement, one thing is clear, Scottish Labour is finished. They
:08:01. > :08:07.have lost the heart and soul of Scotland. The fact that we are
:08:08. > :08:12.discussing with four days to go an independence referendum that is neck
:08:13. > :08:14.and neck, Labour have failed miserably, absolutely miserably
:08:15. > :08:19.because they have given up everything they stood for. The SNP
:08:20. > :08:22.has picked it up. They have just taken on the bank -- mantle of a
:08:23. > :08:27.left of centre party and are picking up support. Gordon and the rest in
:08:28. > :08:30.my opinion, they represent the past. The yes vote on the Yes campaign
:08:31. > :08:36.represents the future. What do you say to that? There is nothing
:08:37. > :08:41.socialist about an SNP that wants to cut business tax by 3% in the pan.
:08:42. > :08:43.There is nothing socialist about an SNP destroying further education so
:08:44. > :08:49.they can give middle-class people free education. The Labour Party is
:08:50. > :08:55.alive and kicking. You can see if it is Gordon Brown, or Jim Murphy with
:08:56. > :08:59.the 100 days tour. But I hesitate to use this word, but they are kind of
:09:00. > :09:04.privatised from the Scottish Labour Party. They have rode their own
:09:05. > :09:07.fallow. Jim Murphy was on the stump because official Scottish Labour did
:09:08. > :09:12.not want him leading their campaign. Gordon Brown was, I think, kept off
:09:13. > :09:18.the stage until it became so critical that he had to be brought
:09:19. > :09:25.back. I agree with John, the SNP talks left but acts right. That is
:09:26. > :09:28.before they get state powers. That is what is exciting about the
:09:29. > :09:32.referendum, it's not about the SNP, it's about the people deciding. What
:09:33. > :09:35.we have heard so far in the referendum campaign is that there is
:09:36. > :09:38.a desperate yearning in the electorate for real politics,
:09:39. > :09:42.purposeful politics and for the people to be represented. It is
:09:43. > :09:46.probably to the eternal shame of labour that they gave up that role
:09:47. > :09:49.and other people are now taking it upon themselves. How would you
:09:50. > :09:54.assess the state of the Labour Party? The problem is that it was
:09:55. > :09:57.demolished by the SNP in 2011 and what they should have done since
:09:58. > :10:01.then and in other circumstances is take a real look within themselves
:10:02. > :10:05.and brought forward new talent and policies and watch out what they
:10:06. > :10:11.stood for. They've been unable to do that because they are locked in a
:10:12. > :10:15.constitutional row. It is the plan of the Nationalists to fight the
:10:16. > :10:17.first Scottish general election as an independent nation as a
:10:18. > :10:22.nationalist party with its own programme. You don't all go your own
:10:23. > :10:26.way. Why don't you do that? You have more on your main reason to be, so
:10:27. > :10:32.why not go, left, right and centre question you are presuming you don't
:10:33. > :10:35.go the one-way. I do not see the function of the SNP after the yes
:10:36. > :10:40.vote. I think it is clear that there is an SNP under Nicola Sturgeon an
:10:41. > :10:43.SNP which attracts votes from the left and that is the one for me
:10:44. > :10:46.Whether that is called the SNP or something else, I don't know. I
:10:47. > :10:51.think the assumption that we are going into a mirror of old politics
:10:52. > :10:59.in a new world is just fundamentally flawed. That is interesting. Let's
:11:00. > :11:02.just bring in the English dimensional. In many ways, England
:11:03. > :11:07.has not spoken in this referendum campaign. Whether it is yes or no,
:11:08. > :11:11.it will, and to give you a flavour of what some in England might be
:11:12. > :11:16.thinking was saying, here is a clip from John Redwood. We are fed up
:11:17. > :11:20.with this lopsided devolution, this unfair devolution. Scotland gets
:11:21. > :11:23.first-class Devolution, Wales gets second-class devolution and England
:11:24. > :11:27.gets nothing. If Wales wants the same as us, they should have it and
:11:28. > :11:31.then there would be commonality so we could discuss and decide in our
:11:32. > :11:38.own countries, in our own assemblies in Parliament, all those things that
:11:39. > :11:41.are devolved. George, it was clear that if Scotland voted yes for
:11:42. > :11:45.independence it has huge implications for England than the
:11:46. > :11:49.UK, but it's also clear particularly after Gordon Brown's intervention,
:11:50. > :11:53.even if it is no, it has huge applications. You are, I suggest,
:11:54. > :11:59.agreeing with John Redwood that there should be an English boys It
:12:00. > :12:03.would be a step too far for me to agree with him -- English voice I
:12:04. > :12:10.appreciate I might have gone out on a limb. He is the voice of Mars the
:12:11. > :12:14.Balkan from Mars. My own constituents in Bradford are asking,
:12:15. > :12:18.what about us? All these things being done, all the extra mile is
:12:19. > :12:23.being travel to Scotland, what about us? Labour would be well advised to
:12:24. > :12:29.adjust quickly on this so that the John Redwood types do not steal the
:12:30. > :12:33.show. England has yes to use -- yet to speak. It's interesting when you
:12:34. > :12:40.hear a Labour backbencher in Scotland talk about a command paper.
:12:41. > :12:43.He is not in government. Gordon Brown is going round Scotland
:12:44. > :12:47.promising things and he has absolutely no chance of delivering
:12:48. > :12:52.them. The MPs in England will say, hey, what are you talking about We
:12:53. > :12:56.have never been discussed with that? We have not agreed with that. The
:12:57. > :13:00.only way people in Scotland will get the powers they deserve is by voting
:13:01. > :13:05.yes. Crystal ball time, Tommy, you think it is 60/40. I will stick with
:13:06. > :13:10.it, because we have an unprecedented election. 97% of Scotland is
:13:11. > :13:16.registered to vote. The working class will vote in numbers never
:13:17. > :13:23.voted before. George? 55/45 for our side. And if there is a rogue poll,
:13:24. > :13:27.the tek Levesley polled -- technically flawed poll, which
:13:28. > :13:30.should not be published because it is so flawed, then we would be
:13:31. > :13:33.stretching towards what I am predicting already. I think in the
:13:34. > :13:39.last few days we will reach that. Come on. If the no campaign can get
:13:40. > :13:45.the silent majority out, they will edge it. You think they will win,
:13:46. > :13:51.but how much? They cannot give up in a second, a moment or a mile. It is
:13:52. > :13:58.that close. It will be won by the passionate view. I will go for a
:13:59. > :14:05.narrow yes victory. I'm the George, 53 or 54% in favour of Joe -- no. --
:14:06. > :14:08.I am with George. I will leave you to argue about that later. Thank you
:14:09. > :14:11.for being with us on the special Sunday politics from Edinburgh.
:14:12. > :14:12.That's all from us today in Scotland.
:14:13. > :14:15.Don't forget the Daily Politics will have continuing coverage
:14:16. > :14:17.of the referendum campaign all this week on BBC2 at midday.
:14:18. > :14:21.On Thursday night Huw Edwards will be in Glasgow and I will be
:14:22. > :14:24.in London to bring you live coverage of the results on BBC1 from 10. 0 pm
:14:25. > :14:28.on a historic night for Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom.
:14:29. > :14:31.And I'll be back next Sunday when we're live from the Labour
:14:32. > :14:38.Unless, of course, the referendum result is so tumultuous even the
:14:39. > :14:44.Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.