:00:36. > :00:40.It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:41. > :00:44.Was Fidel Castro a revolutionary hero or a murderous dictator?
:00:45. > :00:48.After the Cuban leader's death, politicians divide over his legacy.
:00:49. > :00:53.Can the NHS in England find billions of pounds' worth of efficiency
:00:54. > :00:59.The Shadow Health Secretary joins me live.
:01:00. > :01:01.Should we have a second Brexit referendum on the terms
:01:02. > :01:06.of the eventual withdrawal deal that's struck with the EU?
:01:07. > :01:08.Former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown and former Conservative cabinet
:01:09. > :01:32.What does the Autumn Statement mean? go head-to-head.
:01:33. > :01:34.And with me, Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.
:01:35. > :01:37.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme
:01:38. > :01:44.Political leaders around the world have been reacting to the news
:01:45. > :01:46.of the death of Fidel Castro, the Cuban revolutionary who came
:01:47. > :01:50.to power in 1959 and ushered in a Marxist revolution.
:01:51. > :01:55.Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson described the former leader
:01:56. > :01:58.as an "historic if controversial figure" and said his death marked
:01:59. > :02:02.Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said Castro was "a champion of social
:02:03. > :02:04.justice" who had "seen off a lot of US presidents"
:02:05. > :02:09.President-elect Donald Trump described the former Cuban leader
:02:10. > :02:12.as a "brutal dictator", adding that he hoped his death
:02:13. > :02:16.would begin a new era "in which the wonderful Cuban people
:02:17. > :02:20.finally live in the freedom they so richly deserve".
:02:21. > :02:22.Meanwhile, the President of the European Commission,
:02:23. > :02:25.Jean-Claude Juncker, said the controversial leader
:02:26. > :02:28.was "a hero for many" but "his legacy will be judged
:02:29. > :02:43.I guess we had worked that out ourselves. What do you make of the
:02:44. > :02:47.reactions so far across the political divide? Predictable. And I
:02:48. > :02:55.noticed that Jeremy Corbyn has come in for criticism for his tribute to
:02:56. > :02:59.Castro. But I think it was the right thing for him to do. We all know he
:03:00. > :03:03.was an admirer. He could have sat there for eight hours in his house,
:03:04. > :03:06.agonising over some bland statement which didn't alienate the many
:03:07. > :03:10.people who want to wade into attacked Castro. It would have been
:03:11. > :03:15.inauthentic and would have just added to the sort of mainstream
:03:16. > :03:19.consensus, and I think he was right to say what he believed in this
:03:20. > :03:24.respect. Elsewhere, it has been wholly predictable that there would
:03:25. > :03:30.be this device, because he divided opinion in such an emotive way.
:03:31. > :03:33.Steve, I take your point about authenticity and it might have
:03:34. > :03:39.looked a bit lame for Jeremy Corbyn to pretend that he had no affection
:03:40. > :03:43.for Fidel Castro at all, but do you think he made a bit of an error
:03:44. > :03:48.dismissing Castro's record, the negative side of it as just a floor?
:03:49. > :03:54.He could have acknowledged in more elaborate terms the huge costs. He
:03:55. > :03:57.wanted to go on about the health and education, which if you actually
:03:58. > :04:00.look up the indices on that, they are good relative to other
:04:01. > :04:08.countries. But they have come at such a huge cost. He was not a
:04:09. > :04:11.champion of criminal justice. If he had done that, it would have been
:04:12. > :04:17.utterly inauthentic. He doesn't believe it. And he would have
:04:18. > :04:21.thought there would be many other people focusing on all the epic
:04:22. > :04:27.failings. So he focused on what he believed. There are times when
:04:28. > :04:32.Corbyn's prominence in the media world now as leader widens the
:04:33. > :04:40.debate in an interesting and important way. I am not aware of any
:04:41. > :04:51.criticisms that Mr Corbyn has ever announced about Mr Castro. There
:04:52. > :04:54.were four words in his statement yesterday which is spin doctor would
:04:55. > :05:03.have forced him to say, for all his flaws. He was on this Cuban
:05:04. > :05:08.solidarity committee, which didn't exist to criticise Castro. It
:05:09. > :05:12.existed to help protect Castro from those, particularly the Americans,
:05:13. > :05:16.who were trying to undermine him. And Corbyn made a big deal yesterday
:05:17. > :05:21.saying he has always called out human rights abuses all over the
:05:22. > :05:26.world. But he said that in general, I call out human rights abuses. He
:05:27. > :05:33.never said, I have called out human rights abuses in Cuba. In the weeks
:05:34. > :05:41.ahead, more will come out about what these human rights abuses were. The
:05:42. > :05:47.lid will come off what was actually happening. Some well authenticated
:05:48. > :05:53.stories are pretty horrendous. I was speaking to a journalist who was
:05:54. > :06:00.working there in the 1990s, who gave me vivid examples of that, and there
:06:01. > :06:04.will be more to come. I still go back to, when a major figure diet
:06:05. > :06:10.and you are a leader who has admired but major figure, you have to say
:06:11. > :06:27.it. That is the trap he has fallen into. He has proved every criticism
:06:28. > :06:33.that he is a duck old ideologue. But he is not the only one. Prime
:06:34. > :06:40.Minister Trudeau was so if uses that I wondered if they were going to
:06:41. > :06:44.open up a book of condolences. I think it reinforces Corbyn's failing
:06:45. > :06:48.brand. It may be authentic, but authentic isn't working for him.
:06:49. > :06:55.When I was driving, I heard Trevor Phillips, who is a Blairite, saying
:06:56. > :07:00.the record was mixed and there were a lot of things to admire as well as
:07:01. > :07:03.all the terrible things. So it is quite nuanced. But if you are a
:07:04. > :07:08.leader issuing a sound bite, there is no space for new ones. You either
:07:09. > :07:14.decide to go for the consensus, which is to set up on the whole, it
:07:15. > :07:18.was a brutal dictatorship. Or you say, here is an extraordinary figure
:07:19. > :07:23.worthy of admiration. In my view, he was right to say what he believed.
:07:24. > :07:27.There was still a dilemma for the British government over who they
:07:28. > :07:34.sent to the funeral. Do they sent nobody, do they say and Boris
:07:35. > :07:41.Johnson as a post-ironic statement? There is now a post-Castro Cuba to
:07:42. > :07:45.deal with. Trump was quite diplomatic about post-Castro Cuba.
:07:46. > :07:54.And Boris Johnson's statement was restrained. The thing about Mr
:07:55. > :07:57.Castro was the longevity, 50 years of keeping Marxism on the island.
:07:58. > :07:58.That was what made it so fascinating.
:07:59. > :08:02.Before the last election, George Osborne promised the NHS
:08:03. > :08:06.in England a real-terms funding boost of ?8 billion per year by 2020
:08:07. > :08:09.on the understanding that NHS bosses would also find ?22 billion worth
:08:10. > :08:16.Since last autumn, NHS managers have been drawing up what they're calling
:08:17. > :08:19."Sustainability and Transformation Plans" to make these savings,
:08:20. > :08:25.but some of the proposals are already running into local
:08:26. > :08:28.opposition, while Labour say they amount to huge cuts to the NHS.
:08:29. > :08:34.Help is on the way for an elderly person in need in Hertfordshire.
:08:35. > :08:37.But east of England ambulance call operators
:08:38. > :08:42.they're sending an early intervention vehicle
:08:43. > :08:49.with a council-employed occupational therapist on board.
:08:50. > :08:51.It's being piloted here for over 65s with
:08:52. > :08:57.When they arrive, a paramedic judges if the patient can be
:08:58. > :08:59.treated immediately at home without a trip to hospital.
:09:00. > :09:02.Around 80% of patients have been treated this way,
:09:03. > :09:05.taking the strain off urgently-needed hospital beds,
:09:06. > :09:11.So the early intervention team has assessed the patient and decided
:09:12. > :09:24.The key to successful integration for Hertfordshire being able
:09:25. > :09:26.to collaboratively look at how we use our resources,
:09:27. > :09:28.to have pooled budgets, to allow us to understand
:09:29. > :09:32.where spend is, and to let us make conscientious decisions about how
:09:33. > :09:36.best to use that money, to come up with ideas to problems
:09:37. > :09:39.that sit between our organisations, to look at things collaboratively.
:09:40. > :09:41.This Hertfordshire hospital is also a good example of how
:09:42. > :09:49.You won't find an A unit or overnight beds here any more.
:09:50. > :09:54.The closest ones are 20 minutes down the road.
:09:55. > :09:56.What's left is nurse-led care in an NHS-built hospital.
:09:57. > :10:00.Despite a politically toxic change, this reconfiguration went
:10:01. > :10:02.through after broad public and political consultation
:10:03. > :10:06.with hospital clinicians and GPs on board.
:10:07. > :10:10.It's a notable achievement that's surely of interest to 60% of NHS
:10:11. > :10:16.trusts in England that reported a deficit at the end of September.
:10:17. > :10:19.It's not just here that the NHS needs to save money and provide
:10:20. > :10:26.The Government is going to pour in an extra ?8 billion into the NHS
:10:27. > :10:32.in England, but it has demanded ?22 billion
:10:33. > :10:34.worth of efficiencies across the country.
:10:35. > :10:36.In order to deliver that, the NHS has created 44 health
:10:37. > :10:39.and care partnerships, and each one will provide
:10:40. > :10:43.a sustainability and transformation plan, or STP, to integrate care,
:10:44. > :10:47.provide better services and save money.
:10:48. > :10:51.So far, 33 of these 44 regional plans, drawn up by senior people
:10:52. > :10:54.in the health service and local government,
:10:55. > :11:01.The NHS has been through five years of severely constrained spending
:11:02. > :11:04.growth, and there are another 4-5 years on the way at least.
:11:05. > :11:10.STPs themselves are an attempt to deal in a planned way
:11:11. > :11:17.But with plans to close some A units and reduce the number
:11:18. > :11:22.of hospital beds, there's likely to be a tough political battle
:11:23. > :11:26.ahead, with many MPs already up in arms about proposed
:11:27. > :11:29.This Tory backbencher is concerned about the local plans for his
:11:30. > :11:37.I wouldn't call it an efficiency if you are proposing to close
:11:38. > :11:41.all of the beds which are currently provided for those coming out
:11:42. > :11:43.of the acute sector who are elderly and looking
:11:44. > :11:46.That's not a cut, it's not an efficiency saving,
:11:47. > :11:55.All 44 STPs should be published in a month's time,
:11:56. > :12:00.But even before that, they dominated this week's PMQs.
:12:01. > :12:03.The Government's sustainability and transformation plans
:12:04. > :12:08.for the National Health Service hide ?22 billion of cuts.
:12:09. > :12:11.The National Health Service is indeed looking for savings
:12:12. > :12:16.within the NHS, which will be reinvested in the NHS.
:12:17. > :12:20.There will be no escape from angry MPs for the Health Secretary either.
:12:21. > :12:23.Well, I have spoken to the Secretary of State just this week
:12:24. > :12:28.about the importance of community hospitals in general,
:12:29. > :12:34.These are proposals out to consultation.
:12:35. > :12:38.What could happen if these plans get blocked?
:12:39. > :12:42.If STPs cannot be made to work, the planned changes don't come
:12:43. > :12:47.to pass, then the NHS will see over time a sort of unplanned
:12:48. > :12:49.deterioration and services becoming unstable and service
:12:50. > :12:55.The NHS barely featured in this week's Autumn Statement
:12:56. > :13:02.but the Prime Minister insisted beforehand that STPs
:13:03. > :13:04.are in the interests of local people.
:13:05. > :13:06.Her Government's support will now be critical for NHS England
:13:07. > :13:08.to push through these controversial regional plans,
:13:09. > :13:15.which will soon face public scrutiny.
:13:16. > :13:20.We did ask the Department of Health for an interview,
:13:21. > :13:23.I've been joined by the Shadow Health Secretary,
:13:24. > :13:40.Do you accept that the NHS is capable of making ?22 billion of
:13:41. > :13:44.efficiency savings? Well, we are very sceptical, as are number of
:13:45. > :13:49.independent organisations about the ability of the NHS to find 22
:13:50. > :13:52.billion of efficiencies without that affecting front line care. When you
:13:53. > :13:56.drill down into the 22 billion, based on the information we have
:13:57. > :14:00.been given, and there hasn't been much information, we can see that
:14:01. > :14:04.some of it will come from cutting the budget which go to community
:14:05. > :14:07.pharmacies, which could lead, according to ministers, to 3000
:14:08. > :14:12.pharmacies closing, which we believe will increase demands on A and
:14:13. > :14:16.GPs, and also that a lot of these changes which are being proposed,
:14:17. > :14:24.which was the focus of the package, we think will mean service cuts at a
:14:25. > :14:30.local level. Do they? The chief executive of NHS England says these
:14:31. > :14:33.efficiency plans are "Incredibly important". He used to work from
:14:34. > :14:40.Labour. The independent King's Fund calls them "The best hope to improve
:14:41. > :14:47.health and care services. There is no plan B". On the sustainable
:14:48. > :14:50.transformation plans, which will be across England to link up physical
:14:51. > :14:55.health, mental health and social care, for those services to
:14:56. > :14:57.collaborate more closely together and move beyond the fragmented
:14:58. > :15:04.system we have at the moment is important. It seems that the ground
:15:05. > :15:08.has shifted. It has moved into filling financial gaps. As we know,
:15:09. > :15:13.the NHS is going through the biggest financial squeeze in its history. By
:15:14. > :15:16.2018, per head spending on the NHS will be falling. If you want to
:15:17. > :15:23.redesign services for the long term in a local area, you need to put the
:15:24. > :15:25.money in. So of course, getting these services working better
:15:26. > :15:29.together and having a greater strategic oversight, which we would
:15:30. > :15:34.have had if we had not got rid of strategic health authority is in the
:15:35. > :15:39.last Parliament. But this is not an attempt to save 22 billion, this is
:15:40. > :15:46.an attempt to spend 22 billion more successfully, don't you accept that?
:15:47. > :15:53.Simon Stevens said we need 8 billion, and we need to find 22
:15:54. > :15:58.billion of savings. You have to spend 22 billion more efficiently.
:15:59. > :16:03.But the Government have not given that 8 billion to the NHS which they
:16:04. > :16:09.said they would. They said they would do it by 2020. But they have
:16:10. > :16:14.changed the definitions of spending so NHS England will get 8 billion by
:16:15. > :16:20.2020, but they have cut the public health budgets by about 4 million by
:16:21. > :16:24.20 20. The budget that going to initiatives to tackle sexually
:16:25. > :16:29.transmitted diseases, to tackle smoking have been cut back but the
:16:30. > :16:33.commissioning of things like school nurses and health visitors have been
:16:34. > :16:37.cut back as well. Simon Stevens said he can only deliver that five-year
:16:38. > :16:41.project if there is a radical upgrade in public health, which the
:16:42. > :16:46.Government have failed on, and if we deal with social care, and this week
:16:47. > :16:53.there was an... I understand that, but if you don't think the
:16:54. > :16:58.efficiency drive can free up 22 billion to take us to 30 billion by
:16:59. > :17:03.2020, where would you get the money from? I have been in this post now
:17:04. > :17:06.for five or six weeks and I want to have a big consultation with
:17:07. > :17:12.everybody who works in the health sector, as well as patients, carers
:17:13. > :17:19.and families. Though you don't know? I think it would be surprised if I
:17:20. > :17:25.had an arbitrary figure this soon into the job. Your party said they
:17:26. > :17:30.expected election of spring by this year, you need to have some idea by
:17:31. > :17:35.now, you inherited a portfolio from Diane Abbott, did she have no idea?
:17:36. > :17:40.To govern is to make choices and we would make different choices. The
:17:41. > :17:47.budget last year scored billions of giveaways in things like
:17:48. > :17:58.co-operating -- corporation tax. What I do want to do... Is work on a
:17:59. > :18:04.plan and the general election, whenever it comes, next year or in
:18:05. > :18:08.2020 or in between, to have costed plan for the NHS. But your party is
:18:09. > :18:14.committed to balancing the books on current spending, that is currently
:18:15. > :18:19.John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor's position. What we are
:18:20. > :18:23.talking about, this extra 30 billion, that is essentially current
:18:24. > :18:27.spending so if it doesn't come from efficiency savings, where does the
:18:28. > :18:34.money come from? Some of it is also capital. Mainly current spending. If
:18:35. > :18:45.you look at the details of the OBR, they have switched a million from
:18:46. > :18:49.the capital into revenue. Why -- how do you balance spending?
:18:50. > :18:58.That is why we need to have a debate. Every time we ask for
:18:59. > :19:02.Labour's policy, we are always told me a debate. Surely it is time to
:19:03. > :19:06.give some idea of what you stand for? There's huge doubts about the
:19:07. > :19:11.Government 's policy on this. You are the opposition, how would you do
:19:12. > :19:15.it? I want to work with John McDonnell to find a package to give
:19:16. > :19:19.the NHS the money it needs, but of course our Shadow Chancellor, like
:19:20. > :19:23.any Shadow Chancellor at this stage in the cycle, will want to see what
:19:24. > :19:29.the books look like a head of an election before making commitments.
:19:30. > :19:32.I am clear that the Labour Party has to go into the next general election
:19:33. > :19:35.with a clear policy to give the NHS the funding it needs because it has
:19:36. > :19:40.been going through the largest financial squeeze in its history.
:19:41. > :19:45.You say Labour will always give the NHS the money it needs, that is not
:19:46. > :19:50.a policy, it is a blank cheque. It is an indication of our commitment
:19:51. > :19:54.to the NHS. Under this Conservative government, the NHS has been getting
:19:55. > :19:59.a 1% increase. Throughout its history it has usually have about
:20:00. > :20:04.4%. Under the last Labour government it was getting 4%, before that
:20:05. > :20:07.substantially more. We think the NHS should get more but I don't have
:20:08. > :20:16.access to the NHS books in front of me. The public thinks there needs to
:20:17. > :20:21.be more money spent on health but they also think that should go cap
:20:22. > :20:26.in hand with the money being more efficiently spent, which is what
:20:27. > :20:32.this efficiency drive is designed to release 22 billion. Do you have an
:20:33. > :20:37.efficiency drive if it is not the Government's one? Of course we
:20:38. > :20:42.agree. We agree the NHS should be more efficient, we want to see
:20:43. > :20:49.productivity increased. Do know how to do that? One way is through
:20:50. > :20:55.investments, maintenance, but there is a 5 million maintenance backlog.
:20:56. > :21:02.One of the most high risk backlogs is something like 730 million. They
:21:03. > :21:06.are going to switch the capital spend into revenue spend. I believe
:21:07. > :21:10.that when you invest in maintenance and capital in the NHS, that
:21:11. > :21:14.contribute to increasing its productivity. You are now talking
:21:15. > :21:20.about 5 billion the maintenance, the chief executive says it needs 30
:21:21. > :21:27.billion more by 2020 as a minimum so that 35 billion. You want to spend
:21:28. > :21:30.more on social care, another for 5 billion on that so we have proper
:21:31. > :21:34.care in the community. By that calculation I'm up to about 40
:21:35. > :21:39.billion, which is fine, except where do you get the and balance the
:21:40. > :21:44.account at the same time? We will have to come up with a plan for that
:21:45. > :21:47.and that's why I will work with our Shadow Treasury team to come up with
:21:48. > :21:51.that plan when they head into the general election. At the moment we
:21:52. > :21:55.are saying to the NHS, sorry, we are not going to give you the
:21:56. > :22:03.investment, which is why we are seeing patient care deteriorating.
:22:04. > :22:09.The staff are doing incredible things but 180,000 are waiting in
:22:10. > :22:12.A beyond four hours, record levels of people delayed in beds in
:22:13. > :22:16.hospitals because there are not the beds in the community to go to save
:22:17. > :22:19.the NHS needs the investment. We know that and we know the
:22:20. > :22:24.Government's response to that and many think it is inadequate. What
:22:25. > :22:27.I'm trying to get from you is what your response would be and what your
:22:28. > :22:32.reaction will be to these efficiency plans. Your colleague Heidi
:22:33. > :22:39.Alexander, she had your job earlier this year, she warned of the danger
:22:40. > :22:46.of knee jerk blanket opposition to local efficiency plans. Do you agree
:22:47. > :22:52.with that? Yes. So every time a hospital is going to close as a
:22:53. > :22:56.result of this, and some will, it is Labour default position not just
:22:57. > :23:00.going to be we are against it? That is why we are going to judge each of
:23:01. > :23:04.these sustainability plans by a number of yardsticks. We want to see
:23:05. > :23:08.if they have the support of local clinicians, we want to see if they
:23:09. > :23:11.have the support of local authorities because they now have a
:23:12. > :23:15.role in the delivery of health care. We want to see if they make the
:23:16. > :23:19.right decisions for the long-term trends in population for local area.
:23:20. > :23:23.We want to see if they integrate social care and health. If they
:23:24. > :23:28.don't and therefore you will not bank that as an efficiency saving,
:23:29. > :23:33.you will say no, that's not the way to go, you are left then with
:23:34. > :23:39.finding the alternative funding to keep the NHS going. If you are
:23:40. > :23:45.cutting beds, for example the proposal is to cut something like
:23:46. > :23:48.5000 beds in Derbyshire and if there is the space in the community sector
:23:49. > :23:53.in Derbyshire, that will cause big problems for the NHS in the long
:23:54. > :23:58.term so it is a false economy. An example like that, we would be very
:23:59. > :24:01.sceptical the plans could work. Would it not be honest, given the
:24:02. > :24:07.sums of money involved and your doubts about the efficiency plan,
:24:08. > :24:12.which are shared by many people, to just say, look, among the wealthy
:24:13. > :24:18.nations, we spend a lower proportion of our GDP on health than most of
:24:19. > :24:23.the other countries, European countries included, we need to put
:24:24. > :24:28.up tax if we want a proper NHS. Wouldn't that be honest? I'm not the
:24:29. > :24:35.Shadow Chancellor, I don't make taxation policy. You are tempting me
:24:36. > :24:39.down a particular road by you or I smile. John McDonnell will come up
:24:40. > :24:42.with our taxation policy. We have had an ambition to meet the European
:24:43. > :24:46.average, the way these things are measured have changed since then,
:24:47. > :24:53.but we did have that ambition and for a few years we met it. We need
:24:54. > :24:55.substantial investment in the NHS. Everyone accepts it was
:24:56. > :24:59.extraordinary that there wasn't an extra penny for the NHS in the
:25:00. > :25:04.Autumn Statement this week. And as we go into the general election,
:25:05. > :25:09.whenever it is, we will have a plan for the NHS. Come back and speak to
:25:10. > :25:11.us when you know what you are going to do. Thank you.
:25:12. > :25:13.Theresa May has promised to trigger formal Brexit negotiations
:25:14. > :25:16.before the end of March, but the Prime Minister must wait
:25:17. > :25:19.for the Supreme Court to decide whether parliament must vote
:25:20. > :25:22.If that is the Supreme Court's conclusion, the Liberal Democrats
:25:23. > :25:25.and others in parliament have said they'll demand a second EU
:25:26. > :25:27.referendum on the terms of the eventual Brexit deal before
:25:28. > :25:30.And last week, two former Prime Ministers suggested
:25:31. > :25:33.that the referendum result could be reversed.
:25:34. > :25:37.In an interview with the New Statesman on Thursday,
:25:38. > :25:40.Tony Blair said, "It can be stopped if the British people decide that,
:25:41. > :25:42.having seen what it means, the pain-gain cost-benefit analysis
:25:43. > :25:49.John Major also weighed in, telling a meeting
:25:50. > :25:51.of the National Liberal Club that the terms of Brexit
:25:52. > :25:53.were being dictated by the "tyranny of the majority".
:25:54. > :25:55.He also said there is a "perfectly credible case"
:25:56. > :25:59.That prompted the former Conservative leader
:26:00. > :26:03.Iain Duncan Smith to criticise John Major.
:26:04. > :26:05.He told the BBC, "The idea we delay everything simply
:26:06. > :26:07.because they disagree with the original result does
:26:08. > :26:12.seem to me an absolute dismissal of democracy."
:26:13. > :26:15.So, is there a realistic chance of a second referendum on the terms
:26:16. > :26:20.of whatever Brexit deal Theresa May manages to secure?
:26:21. > :26:23.Lib Dem party leader Tim Farron has said, "We want to respect
:26:24. > :26:27.the will of the people and that means they must have their say
:26:28. > :26:30.in a referendum on the terms of the deal."
:26:31. > :26:34.But the Lib Dems have just eight MPs - they'll need Labour support
:26:35. > :26:39.One ally is former Labour leadership candidate Owen Smith.
:26:40. > :26:43.He backs the idea of a second referendum.
:26:44. > :26:45.But yesterday the party's deputy leader, Tom Watson, said that,
:26:46. > :26:48."Unlike the Lib Dem Brexit Deniers, we believe in respecting
:26:49. > :26:56.To discuss whether or not there should be a second referendum
:26:57. > :26:59.on the terms of the Brexit deal, I've been joined by two
:27:00. > :27:02.In Somerset is the former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown,
:27:03. > :27:04.and in Shropshire is the former Conservative cabinet minister
:27:05. > :27:16.Paddy Ashdown, let me come to you first. When the British people have
:27:17. > :27:22.spoken, you do what they command, either you believe in democracy or
:27:23. > :27:29.you don't. When democracy speaks, we obey. Your words on the night of the
:27:30. > :27:32.referendum, what's changed? Nothing has changed, Andrew, that's what I
:27:33. > :27:37.said and what I still believe in. The British people have spoken, we
:27:38. > :27:43.will not block Parliament debating the Brexit decision, Article 50, but
:27:44. > :27:50.we will introduce an amendment to say that we need to consult the
:27:51. > :27:57.British people, not about if we go out but what destination we would
:27:58. > :28:01.then achieve. There is a vast difference in ordinary people's
:28:02. > :28:05.lives between the so-called hard Brexit and soft Brexit. Soft Brexit,
:28:06. > :28:10.you remain in the single market, you have to accept and agree on
:28:11. > :28:18.immigration. Hard Brexit you are out of the single market, we have many
:28:19. > :28:24.fewer jobs... Why didn't you say before the referendum there would be
:28:25. > :28:28.a second referendum on the terms? Forgive me, I said it on many
:28:29. > :28:33.occasions, you may not have covered it, Andrew, but that's a different
:28:34. > :28:37.thing. In every speech I gave I said this, and this has proved to be
:28:38. > :28:40.true, since those who recommended Brexit refused to tell us the
:28:41. > :28:46.destination they were recommending, they refuse to give any detail about
:28:47. > :28:50.the destination, if we did vote to go out, it would probably be
:28:51. > :28:54.appropriate to decide which destination, hard Brexit or soft
:28:55. > :28:59.Brexit we go to. They deliberately obscure that because it made it more
:29:00. > :29:05.difficult to argue the case. It wasn't part of the official campaign
:29:06. > :29:09.but let me come to Owen Paterson. What's wrong with a referendum on
:29:10. > :29:13.the terms of the deal? We voted to leave but we don't really know on
:29:14. > :29:16.what conditions we leave so what's wrong with negotiating the deal and
:29:17. > :29:24.putting that deal to the British people? This would be a ridiculous
:29:25. > :29:29.idea, it would be a complete gift to the EU negotiators to go for an
:29:30. > :29:33.impossibly difficult deal because they want to do everything to make
:29:34. > :29:38.sure that Brexit does not go through. This nonsense idea of hard
:29:39. > :29:42.Brexit and soft Brexit, it was never discussed during the referendum
:29:43. > :29:48.campaign. We made it clear we wanted to take back control, that means
:29:49. > :29:51.making our own laws, raising and spending the money agreed by elected
:29:52. > :29:55.politicians, getting control of our own borders back, and getting
:29:56. > :29:59.control of our ability to do trade deals around the world. That was
:30:00. > :30:05.clear at all stages of the referendum. We got 17.4 million
:30:06. > :30:10.votes, the biggest vote in history for any issue, that 52%, 10% more
:30:11. > :30:15.than John Major got and he was happy with his record number of 14
:30:16. > :30:19.million, more than Tony Blair got, which was 43%, so we have a very
:30:20. > :30:24.clear mandate. Time and again people come up to me and say when are we
:30:25. > :30:27.going to get on with this. The big problem is uncertainty. We want to
:30:28. > :30:30.trigger Article 50, have the negotiation and get to a better
:30:31. > :30:40.place. OK, I need to get a debate going.
:30:41. > :30:44.Paddy Ashdown, the EU doesn't want us to leave. If they knew there was
:30:45. > :30:46.going to be a second referendum, surely there was going to be a
:30:47. > :30:48.second referendum, surely their incentive would be to give us the
:30:49. > :30:53.worst possible deal would vote against it would put us in a
:30:54. > :30:58.ridiculous negotiating position. On the contrary, the government could
:30:59. > :31:01.go and negotiate with the European Union and anyway, the opinion of the
:31:02. > :31:05.European Union is less important than the opinion of the British
:31:06. > :31:09.people. It seems to me that Owen Paterson made the case for me
:31:10. > :31:15.precisely. They refuse to discuss what kind of destination. Britain
:31:16. > :31:18.voted for departure, but not a destination. Because Owen Paterson
:31:19. > :31:23.and his colleagues refused to discuss what their model was. So the
:31:24. > :31:27.range of options here and the impact on the people of Britain is huge.
:31:28. > :31:30.There is nothing to stop the government going to negotiate,
:31:31. > :31:36.getting the best deal it can and go into the British people and saying,
:31:37. > :31:43.this is the deal, guys, do you agree? Owen Paterson? It is simple.
:31:44. > :31:50.The British people voted to leave. We voted to take back control of our
:31:51. > :31:53.laws, our money, our borders. But most people don't know the shape of
:31:54. > :32:00.what the deal would be. So why not have a vote on it? Because it would
:32:01. > :32:05.be a gift to the EU negotiators to drive the worst possible deal in the
:32:06. > :32:09.hope that it might be chucked out with a second referendum. The
:32:10. > :32:16.biggest danger is the uncertainty. We have the biggest vote in British
:32:17. > :32:20.history. You have said all that. It was your side that originally
:32:21. > :32:25.proposed a second referendum. The director of Leave said, there is a
:32:26. > :32:31.strong democratic case for a referendum on what the deal looks
:32:32. > :32:42.like. Your side. Come on, you are digging up a blog from June of 2015.
:32:43. > :32:50.He said he had not come to a conclusion. He said it is a distinct
:32:51. > :32:55.possibility. No senior members of the campaign said we would have a
:32:56. > :32:59.second referendum. It is worth chucking Paddy the quote he gave on
:33:00. > :33:02.ITV news, whether it is a majority of 1% or 20%, when the British
:33:03. > :33:09.people have spoken, you do what they command. People come up to me and
:33:10. > :33:19.keep asking, when are you going to get on with it? What do you say to
:33:20. > :33:22.that, Paddy Ashdown? Owen Paterson has obviously not been paying
:33:23. > :33:32.attention. You ask me that question at the start. Owen and his kind have
:33:33. > :33:36.to stick to the same argument. During the referendum, when we said
:33:37. > :33:42.that the Europeans have it in their interest to picket tough for us,
:33:43. > :33:46.they would suffer as well. And that has proved to be right. The European
:33:47. > :33:51.Union does not wish to hand as a bad deal, because they may suffer in the
:33:52. > :34:03.process. We need the best deal for both sides. I can't understand why
:34:04. > :34:07.Owen is now reversing that argument. Here is the question I am going to
:34:08. > :34:16.ask you. If we have a second referendum on the deal and we vote
:34:17. > :34:27.by a very small amount, by a sliver, to stay in, can we then make it
:34:28. > :34:32.best-of-3? No, Andrew! Vince Cable says he thinks if you won, he would
:34:33. > :34:36.have to have a decider. You will have to put that income tax, because
:34:37. > :34:44.I don't remember when he said that. -- you have to put that in context.
:34:45. > :34:50.Independent, 19th of September. That is a decision on the outcome. The
:34:51. > :34:55.central point is that the British people voted for departure, not a
:34:56. > :35:00.destination. In response to the claim that this is undemocratic, if
:35:01. > :35:05.it is democratic to have one referendum, how can it be
:35:06. > :35:08.undemocratic to have two? Owen Paterson, the British government, on
:35:09. > :35:12.the brink of triggering article 50, cannot tell us if we will remain
:35:13. > :35:19.members of the single market, if we will remain members of the customs
:35:20. > :35:23.union. From that flows our ability to make trade deals, our attitude
:35:24. > :35:26.towards freedom of movement and the rest of it. Given that the
:35:27. > :35:30.government can't tell us, it is clear that the British people have
:35:31. > :35:35.no idea what the eventual shape will be. That is surely the fundamental
:35:36. > :35:42.case for a second referendum. Emphatically not. They have given a
:35:43. > :35:50.clear vote. That vote was to take back control. What the establishment
:35:51. > :35:52.figures like Paddy should recognise is the shattering damage it would do
:35:53. > :36:00.to the integrity of the whole political process if this was not
:36:01. > :36:03.delivered. People come up to me, as I have said for the third time now,
:36:04. > :36:09.wanting to know when we will get article 50 triggered. Both people
:36:10. > :36:13.who have voted to Remain and to Leave. If we do not deliver this, it
:36:14. > :36:17.will be disastrous for the reputation and integrity of the
:36:18. > :36:25.whole political establishment. Let me put that you Paddy Ashdown. It is
:36:26. > :36:29.very Brussels elite - were ask your question but if we don't like the
:36:30. > :36:38.answer, we will keep asking the question. Did it with the Irish and
:36:39. > :36:44.French. It is... It would really anger the British people, would it
:36:45. > :36:48.not? That is an interesting question, Andrew. I don't think it
:36:49. > :36:52.would. All the evidence I see in public meetings I attended, and I
:36:53. > :36:55.think it is beginning to show in the opinion polls, although there hasn't
:36:56. > :36:58.been a proper one on this yet, I suspect there is a majority in
:36:59. > :37:02.Britain who would wish to see a second referendum on the outcome.
:37:03. > :37:07.They take the same view as I do. What began with an open democratic
:37:08. > :37:11.process cannot end with a government stitch up. Contrary to what Owen
:37:12. > :37:18.suggests, there is public support for this. And far from damaging the
:37:19. > :37:22.government and the political class, it showed that we are prepared to
:37:23. > :37:32.listen. We shall see. Paddy Ashdown, have you eaten your hat yet? Andrew,
:37:33. > :37:37.as you well know, I have eaten five hats. You cannot have a second
:37:38. > :37:40.referendum until you eat your hat on my programme. We will leave it
:37:41. > :37:47.there. Paddy Ashdown and Owen Paterson, thank you much. I have
:37:48. > :37:50.eaten a hat on your programme. I don't remember!
:37:51. > :37:52.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:37:53. > :38:02.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:38:03. > :38:06.In the East Midlands, never mind the just managing jams,
:38:07. > :38:09.what about those who are not managing at all?
:38:10. > :38:12.We have brought the Chancellor's Autumn Statement to the town
:38:13. > :38:16.that voted very heavily to leave the European Union.
:38:17. > :38:18.And more money from the Chancellor for housing.
:38:19. > :38:22.Will it be enough to cut the waiting list?
:38:23. > :38:25.I don't think we've had a really good consistent housing policy for
:38:26. > :38:32.Hello, I am Marie Ashby and my guests are the Conservative
:38:33. > :38:36.former Chancellor himself, and the Labour MP for Gedling
:38:37. > :38:40.Let's get your reaction to the Autumn Statement.
:38:41. > :38:44.The Chancellor painted a picture of growing debt and
:38:45. > :38:55.I was very reassured by the statement.
:38:56. > :38:58.At last, after all the madness of the last few months,
:38:59. > :39:00.there is the man who understands economic policy
:39:01. > :39:02.and there is a sound and
:39:03. > :39:06.tough guy when he needs to be talking about the real world.
:39:07. > :39:09.And getting us all to face up to the fact that the next few
:39:10. > :39:13.The global economy is in no great state either.
:39:14. > :39:18.He explained how he is going to stick
:39:19. > :39:22.to sensible economic policies and concentrate on what little money
:39:23. > :39:26.he has got to try and develop a modern, competitive
:39:27. > :39:28.economy to give people jobs for the future.
:39:29. > :39:38.He is going to have to stick to that as well and not be
:39:39. > :39:41.That infrastructure investment which has been promised is
:39:42. > :39:44.Your party is attacking the Chancellor,
:39:45. > :39:47.isn't it, for not tackling social care at all.
:39:48. > :39:51.The first thing to say about the Autumn Statement was,
:39:52. > :39:54.in or out of the EU, it was an admission of the failed
:39:55. > :39:59.We now have a Government that can't see anything
:40:00. > :40:01.about extra spending about on the NHS or social care
:40:02. > :40:04.and is having to borrow an extra 122 billion over the period
:40:05. > :40:07.of the next five years without a clear indication
:40:08. > :40:10.of when the budget will come into surplus at the same
:40:11. > :40:14.time as living standards are being squeezed.
:40:15. > :40:16.I think people out there will see it as
:40:17. > :40:19.an Autumn Statement that carries on the failed policies
:40:20. > :40:26.He should apparently have spent a lot more money and somehow get rid
:40:27. > :40:30.I think if you followed Vernon's remedy, the debt
:40:31. > :40:39.Back in the real world, the fact is the
:40:40. > :40:42.financial crash of 2006-2008 is the main cause of where
:40:43. > :40:45.we were and we haven't successfully here or in the rest of
:40:46. > :40:52.You predicted that there could be a recession.
:40:53. > :40:56.After the Brexit vote, you predicted there could be a recession.
:40:57. > :40:58.Could that still happen in your view?
:40:59. > :41:00.I think there is a real risk of a recession.
:41:01. > :41:06.I am usually quite a cheerful guy, as you will admit.
:41:07. > :41:10.Yes, I think there is a serious risk of a recession in the next year
:41:11. > :41:13.If that is the case, is it likely that Theresa May
:41:14. > :41:19.I'm asking do you think she could do that?
:41:20. > :41:21.The last Government that I was in that called
:41:22. > :41:25.because it could not think of what else to do
:41:26. > :41:33.What we need is a clear-headed man like Philip Hammond who is
:41:34. > :41:38.not going to play silly short-term politics.
:41:39. > :41:41.He knows you get lobbied for more money every time you go near the
:41:42. > :41:43.House of Commons if you are the Chancellor.
:41:44. > :41:44.A change of policy is
:41:45. > :41:51.He was keen to spend money on infrastructure with more
:41:52. > :41:53.than ?1 million for affordable housing.
:41:54. > :41:57.Will that be enough to tackle the region's housing shortage?
:41:58. > :42:02.Nottingham's new waterside neighbourhood is taking shape.
:42:03. > :42:04.45 homes have just been finished on old
:42:05. > :42:08.industrial land within spitting nistance of the city's sights.
:42:09. > :42:11.The idea of living here on the banks of the Trent is
:42:12. > :42:15.This development has taken 20 years to come about.
:42:16. > :42:17.There are many other brown field sites in
:42:18. > :42:20.Nottingham that have waited just as long to be built on.
:42:21. > :42:25.On the surface things seem to be picking up.
:42:26. > :42:28.In Nottingham, just over two and half thousand homes are
:42:29. > :42:32.in the pipeline, being built or recently completed.
:42:33. > :42:34.I guess the idea ultimately is that all of this land
:42:35. > :42:37.we see in front of us here will be developed?
:42:38. > :42:38.Yes, this is just the
:42:39. > :42:41.start of a huge regeneration project.
:42:42. > :42:43.There is economic uncertainty, however I think in
:42:44. > :42:45.Nottingham we are determined to make this work.
:42:46. > :42:49.We are determined to do
:42:50. > :42:54.what we can to work with developers to bring sites forward, to make
:42:55. > :42:56.development possible and to regenerate these areas.
:42:57. > :43:01.The developer behind this project believes
:43:02. > :43:03.successive governments could have done much more to help.
:43:04. > :43:11.Arguably, we are not producing enough homes of the right type.
:43:12. > :43:18.Clearly, the results show that we could doing better.
:43:19. > :43:21.What did you make of the Autumn Statement?
:43:22. > :43:23.The housing infrastructure fund is a step in the
:43:24. > :43:30.The new money, additional money for affordable housing is important.
:43:31. > :43:33.Some of the money announced on Wednesday's should
:43:34. > :43:35.trickle down to the East Midlands and perhaps to affordable housing
:43:36. > :43:40.Jordan has just moved into one of the new
:43:41. > :43:43.council houses in a generation in this Conservative run district.
:43:44. > :43:55.The local authority has paid for some of this
:43:56. > :43:59.under the Right to Buy scheme and derelict houses are also
:44:00. > :44:04.But money is tight and the extra cash on the Government is welcome.
:44:05. > :44:07.It is fantastic news and we will be able to build more houses
:44:08. > :44:10.We will be bidding for that money and building more developments
:44:11. > :44:12.and getting people off the waiting lists.
:44:13. > :44:17.45 families will have a new home here.
:44:18. > :44:19.That is out of the waiting list of around a thousand.
:44:20. > :44:25.The housing crisis will take some solving.
:44:26. > :44:28.Housing is part of the big push on infrastructure.
:44:29. > :44:30.What else is in it for the East Midlands?
:44:31. > :44:33.We're joined by Maria Machancoses, the programme directors of
:44:34. > :44:38.It is the body that has been set up to improve
:44:39. > :44:43.Very few mentions of the Midland Engine in the Autumn Statement.
:44:44. > :44:44.?5 million for a transport hub in Birmingham.
:44:45. > :44:52.This is in addition to the 12 million that was announced
:44:53. > :45:03.As you know, we are working very hard with the Trent eight
:45:04. > :45:09.authorities and businesses, universities and colleges to submit
:45:10. > :45:15.to Government our priorities. What this 5 million that we receive is to
:45:16. > :45:20.help us shape some of the projects that we have in mind and these
:45:21. > :45:24.projects will enable solutions to improve the east and west
:45:25. > :45:29.connectivity between the cities and the towns. Tell us about those
:45:30. > :45:34.projects. What will we see here in the Midlands? We will address some
:45:35. > :45:40.the bottlenecks. They are not allowing businesses to connect with
:45:41. > :45:44.each other in a faster and reliable way. There are a number of
:45:45. > :45:48.interventions around Birmingham and also in the south-west and into the
:45:49. > :45:53.East Midlands that would allow that connectivity to happen. That is what
:45:54. > :46:00.we are calling the Midlands rail harp. We heard from a Economist last
:46:01. > :46:08.week that says there are billions of pounds in cash for the Northern
:46:09. > :46:17.Powerhouse. He could do it is a Government behind this Midland
:46:18. > :46:23.engine? I believe in it strongly. We have got to spread the benefits of
:46:24. > :46:27.economic success across the country. Stop it being in London and the
:46:28. > :46:31.south-east. There is a limit to how far they can go down there. The
:46:32. > :46:37.Midlands and the north should be able to support a moderate economy.
:46:38. > :46:46.We have Rolls-Royce and hotel. Also a lot of smaller businesses. --
:46:47. > :46:51.Toyota. Political lobbying and we have a marginal seat you, can we
:46:52. > :46:54.have a bypass? We cannot afford that sort of stuff at the moment. I am
:46:55. > :47:01.glad that Philip did not produce a list of projects that Gordon and
:47:02. > :47:05.George did occasionally. What we need is for business people to focus
:47:06. > :47:10.on where we need to spend money and cut business costs. Links between
:47:11. > :47:20.Birmingham and Derby and Nottingham are attractive. Vernon Coker, can I
:47:21. > :47:26.bring in here, is a Government behind this? I think I agree with
:47:27. > :47:34.Ken about the need to secure economic growth. If we are talking
:47:35. > :47:38.about transport and links with the east and west are important but the
:47:39. > :47:44.big thing from our point of view is the lack that the Government is
:47:45. > :47:50.saying they will lecture via the Midlands rail line by 2023. Nothing
:47:51. > :47:56.is being said about that. Nottingham, Derby and Sheffield, the
:47:57. > :47:59.electrification of that is very crucial. That is what businesses did
:48:00. > :48:05.to me and the Government has not said anything at all. This is what
:48:06. > :48:11.you are about, Maria. How concerned are you that this all education is
:48:12. > :48:15.being delayed? It has been made clear that electrification on the
:48:16. > :48:22.Midlands is very important. We are also putting the all education in
:48:23. > :48:30.the context of high-speed rail to. It does seem sometimes that our
:48:31. > :48:38.region is being sidelined. We are a waiting for it here and we're going
:48:39. > :48:41.to be waiting long time for that. We had been talking about it for eight
:48:42. > :48:48.years and we have not seen every evidence of it. I quite agree but
:48:49. > :48:51.instead of going back to the usual political rows, equal to the West
:48:52. > :48:56.Country and there's not enough coming here at, Scotland is
:48:57. > :49:02.unfurling treated... Jobs are at stake. These are difficult times.
:49:03. > :49:07.Why does it take so long? I would like to see that I would like to see
:49:08. > :49:11.someone that electrified the Midlands rail line is the key
:49:12. > :49:15.business. Business going to London could travel more comfortably
:49:16. > :49:20.because it would be quieter. I want to see a good business case for what
:49:21. > :49:30.that would do to stimulate economic activity. Jobs and investment
:49:31. > :49:35.here... All of the big business leaders and people from the various
:49:36. > :49:38.and people who use the line would and people who use the line would
:49:39. > :49:45.all say the electrification make a big difference. When you have a
:49:46. > :49:48.second-class line, as we have at the moment, it does influenced
:49:49. > :49:51.investment decisions and the way people are talking about it.
:49:52. > :49:56.High-speed rail going ahead is going to make a big difference. We might
:49:57. > :50:01.as well have a moderate train. High-speed rail brings a new
:50:02. > :50:04.capacity. That is important. I am glad that is steaming ahead.
:50:05. > :50:11.Everyone else arguing what they would like to see in the real...
:50:12. > :50:18.Another delay means businesses are very concerned about it. The money
:50:19. > :50:23.you spend has got to be on something that has some immediate practical
:50:24. > :50:27.impact. The only one that is not a electrified north to south. It is
:50:28. > :50:34.the only one. It is a good service. It is not as good as it should be.
:50:35. > :50:37.It is important. It is very important to show the certainty to
:50:38. > :50:42.businesses and communities that we are doing our very best and planning
:50:43. > :50:47.for the future to provide them for a faster and better connections,
:50:48. > :50:51.north, south. What we are trying to do with the Midlands connect is that
:50:52. > :50:57.certainty and providing businesses and the clear voice to Government
:50:58. > :51:00.what it is we require in terms of infrastructure to support growth and
:51:01. > :51:05.put us at the global stage. When will we see evidence of that? We are
:51:06. > :51:10.submitting the final strategy in March and that will have a plan of
:51:11. > :51:14.action. We will require when and hopefully it will be starting to get
:51:15. > :51:19.the support from Government and getting them ready and starting now.
:51:20. > :51:26.These projects take a long time to implement. We can see that. It is a
:51:27. > :51:31.real thing and we are working with the Government of long-term planning
:51:32. > :51:35.and support. Thank you very much indeed for joining us. We have
:51:36. > :51:39.discussed some of the big policy ideas behind the Autumn Statement.
:51:40. > :51:43.What affect will have on people here in the East Midlands? Here is our
:51:44. > :51:50.political editor. We now know that Brexit means slow economic growth
:51:51. > :51:54.and higher inflation. We have brought the Autumn Statement to
:51:55. > :52:00.Mansfield, the town which voted 70% of all the European union -- leave
:52:01. > :52:03.the European Union. When we get everything together we will be our
:52:04. > :52:08.own country again and that is what we need. You do not think economic
:52:09. > :52:12.bad news is enough to put you off? No, it will get better. I did not
:52:13. > :52:17.think Brexit was a good idea but now we have gone that way it has to be
:52:18. > :52:30.in the best interest of the country. You would hope so anyway. Modest and
:52:31. > :52:35.medium term. Here in the final lounge it is all about people having
:52:36. > :52:40.the money to spend. Productivity means sales and it is also about
:52:41. > :52:44.getting here easily. That means spending money on transport
:52:45. > :52:49.infrastructure. We need people into spend money and we also attract
:52:50. > :52:54.people from further appeal to the field. People cannot get here, they
:52:55. > :52:59.are not going to come and do that. -- further afield. The Autumn
:53:00. > :53:07.Statement was trailed as one to help beat just about managing. There are
:53:08. > :53:15.a lot of in that than to please. They are going to dig it off of us
:53:16. > :53:23.-- to get off of us, the pensioners. There are people you lot worse off
:53:24. > :53:37.than we are. Two independent think tank said said those on low incomes
:53:38. > :53:42.face grim years. Credit unions use money to lend and encourage saving.
:53:43. > :53:46.My message is to look at your budget and then at what you have coming in
:53:47. > :53:50.and out and put something aside for a emergencies. Even a small amount
:53:51. > :53:55.can make a big difference. What about those who have nothing?
:53:56. > :54:00.Nowhere to sleep at night? The Government is going to spend ?10
:54:01. > :54:07.million over two years. Is it enough? We are now seeing 39 people
:54:08. > :54:11.sleeping rough in Nottingham on a single night. It was down to three
:54:12. > :54:16.at one stage. The situation has got worse and got worse quickly. What we
:54:17. > :54:20.need is not a ?10 million initiative, we need is a national
:54:21. > :54:25.strategy. The Government delegated the responsibility to local
:54:26. > :54:29.authorities. This is a national problem and not a local problem.
:54:30. > :54:33.Back to those managing, a group which accounts for the politicians.
:54:34. > :54:42.Does the Autumn Statement mean jam today and vote tomorrow? The
:54:43. > :54:47.Institute for Fiscal Studies said that prospects for PR dreadful.
:54:48. > :54:54.People on low wages may be earning less into thousand and 21 than in
:54:55. > :55:00.2007. It is a grim outlook, isn't it? It is a very difficult time.
:55:01. > :55:05.We... People have been badly hit by the fiscal collapse of a couple
:55:06. > :55:11.years ago which we have not fully recovered from. There is no strong
:55:12. > :55:14.economic growth taking place in any western country for very long. We
:55:15. > :55:18.are getting to the end of the economic cycle and people who voted
:55:19. > :55:22.to make themselves poor are believing the European Union, if
:55:23. > :55:28.we're not careful. It is very difficult to look ahead without
:55:29. > :55:34.telling yourself we have got to pull yourself together, pursue sensible
:55:35. > :55:40.policies and make sure the living standards to go back to getting back
:55:41. > :55:46.on a path. That means moderate businesses and moderate economy run
:55:47. > :55:50.sensibly with access to the markets. Any reasons to be cheerful? Raising
:55:51. > :55:55.the threshold in which people pay tax, increasing the living wage.
:55:56. > :56:00.That is going to help people in work. It is going to be a tough
:56:01. > :56:07.period. The choice of the Government have made are making that worse. If
:56:08. > :56:16.you look at the Institute for Fiscal Studies are saying, it points out
:56:17. > :56:21.the rise in the threshold is the freezing of work benefits has caused
:56:22. > :56:29.problems. What could be Government have done, in your view, to made a
:56:30. > :56:33.difference? It should not adopt look at the National insurance threshold.
:56:34. > :56:37.What they should not have done was the changes to the in work benefits
:56:38. > :56:42.which affect those people who are trying to do the right thing, going
:56:43. > :56:46.to work. They are having more money ticking off them when they are at
:56:47. > :56:49.work. That is a choice the Government has made. Some of the
:56:50. > :56:54.backbenchers are saying that is the wrong thing to have done. As the
:56:55. > :57:00.Government on the wrong thing? We were subsidising low pay, low
:57:01. > :57:04.productivity and long hours culture with vast in work benefits which
:57:05. > :57:09.have exploded over the last 20 years. We were running up debt and
:57:10. > :57:16.relying on the tightness of strangers. The deficit... It was a
:57:17. > :57:24.third of what it was in worst GDP ratio when Auden Brown went, thank
:57:25. > :57:32.heavens. It has been difficult. -- Gordon. The immediate outlook is
:57:33. > :57:38.worrying. The thing I would say is that if you go back to 2010 when
:57:39. > :57:43.Labour lost the election, the economy was growing. The deficit was
:57:44. > :57:46.falling and the economy was growing. It was the decisions made by the
:57:47. > :57:54.coalition Government that choked off that growth and we had the severe
:57:55. > :57:58.austerity imposed which turned out we were going to balance the books,
:57:59. > :58:04.that field. We have ditched that moved to something else. We have
:58:05. > :58:08.more people in work then we have before. We have created more than
:58:09. > :58:13.30,000 jobs in three months as here. There are reasons to be positive,
:58:14. > :58:18.are in there? You can point to that but what we point to is that living
:58:19. > :58:21.standards have fallen. Living standards are likely to fall and if
:58:22. > :58:28.you look at the analysis of the budget that has been made... The
:58:29. > :58:34.Autumn Statement, rather. It is the purist and those just above that to
:58:35. > :58:38.our paying the most. There are warnings that food inflation could
:58:39. > :58:45.rise. That is not going to help anybody. All inflation is going to
:58:46. > :58:49.rise a bit, I'm afraid. We have to minimise the impact. These are
:58:50. > :58:54.predictions. They have been wrong before. We voted for Brexit and we
:58:55. > :58:57.have had a crash in the value of sterling. People got the idea we
:58:58. > :59:04.were going to leave the single market and the custom union... The
:59:05. > :59:09.economy is growing. The economy is growing but it is slowing quite
:59:10. > :59:15.rapidly. The idea that all we have to do is spend more public money...
:59:16. > :59:20.All the people burning names are people I would love to be able to
:59:21. > :59:23.help but Gordon is to have two budget eight year handing the stuff
:59:24. > :59:29.out and he left us with the deepest recession... Time now for a round-up
:59:30. > :59:35.of some of the other blood cult stories. Here's Tony with 60
:59:36. > :59:42.seconds. -- the other political stories. The overnight closure of
:59:43. > :59:47.the A services is to be referred to the Health Secretary. Campaigners
:59:48. > :59:52.welcomed the move. The NHS as trust says it does not have enough doctors
:59:53. > :59:57.to cover the overnight shifts. Plans to change the way Derby City Council
:59:58. > :00:00.is elected have been rejected. Councillor voted against the planned
:00:01. > :00:11.to switch to elections every four years. They will stick with the
:00:12. > :00:13.current system of voting. Former striking miners and their families
:00:14. > :00:18.have released a Christmas single to say thank you to the people who
:00:19. > :00:26.provided food to help them through the 1984 strike. Proceeds of the
:00:27. > :00:30.single will be given to food banks. There is a lack of Christmas cheer
:00:31. > :00:35.in Leicester were some have said the city's tree is an embarrassment. The
:00:36. > :00:43.council says it has had excellent feedback. It is not even December
:00:44. > :00:48.yet. That is the Sunday politics here in the East Midlands. Thank you
:00:49. > :00:54.to Ken Clarke and then in Cork for joining us in the studio. We will be
:00:55. > :00:56.back next week. Now it is back to hand you back to Andrew
:00:57. > :00:59.have got to make sure London is open. Thank you. Andrew, back to
:01:00. > :01:05.you. Is Theresa May serious
:01:06. > :01:07.about curbing executive pay? Who will be crowned Nigel Farage's
:01:08. > :01:11.successor as Ukip leader? And can the Lib Dems pull off
:01:12. > :01:39.a by-election upset in Richmond? So,,, on pay talk about the
:01:40. > :01:42.executive of what executives get compared to the average worker in
:01:43. > :01:46.the company, giving shareholders real power to vote down pay rises if
:01:47. > :01:49.they don't like them, which is pretty much what Ed Miliband
:01:50. > :01:59.proposed in the general election in 2015. Is she serious about this? She
:02:00. > :02:02.is very serious, and the Tory party probably does owe Ed Miliband an
:02:03. > :02:06.apology for trashing his ideas and 2015 and then putting them all up
:02:07. > :02:10.for votes in November 20 16. She is very serious, and this all comes
:02:11. > :02:13.back to her desperate fear that unless capitalism reforms itself and
:02:14. > :02:20.becomes more acceptable to the just about managing or even 78% of the
:02:21. > :02:23.country who are not earning vast wealth at anywhere near the figures
:02:24. > :02:29.you see in the City, serious things will happen and the political sense
:02:30. > :02:33.of trust will implode. She has already been bartered down by her
:02:34. > :02:35.own Cabinet on this. She wanted to go further and make workers on the
:02:36. > :02:43.board mandatory. They have managed to stop that. What will her fallback
:02:44. > :02:51.position be on workers on the board if she is not able to get it into
:02:52. > :02:55.some claw? We would like to have workers on the board, but whatever
:02:56. > :02:59.they do on the board there will have no voting powers on the board. When
:03:00. > :03:03.you look at what was leaked out over the weekend, that we should know the
:03:04. > :03:09.ratio of the top to the average and that shareholders who own the
:03:10. > :03:15.company should determine, in the end, the highest-paid salaries, you
:03:16. > :03:21.kind of think, what could the possible objection be to any of
:03:22. > :03:26.that? Two things. One, I agree with Tom that she is deadly serious about
:03:27. > :03:30.this agenda and it comes under the banner, that sentence in the party
:03:31. > :03:35.conference speech about "It's time to focus on the good that government
:03:36. > :03:39.can do". She is by instinct more of an interventionist than Cameron and
:03:40. > :03:42.Osborne. But she is incredibly cautious, whether it is through the
:03:43. > :03:49.internal constraints of opposition within Cabinet, or her own small C
:03:50. > :03:53.Conservative caution in implementing this stuff. Part of the problem is
:03:54. > :03:58.the practicalities. George Osborne commission will Hutton to do a
:03:59. > :04:01.report which came out with similar proposals, which were never
:04:02. > :04:07.implemented. It is quite hard to enforce. It will antagonise business
:04:08. > :04:11.leaders when she's to woo them again in this Brexit furore. So there are
:04:12. > :04:16.problems with it. And judging by what has happened so far, my guess
:04:17. > :04:19.is that the aim will be genuinely bold and interesting, and the
:04:20. > :04:24.implementation incredibly cautious. Does it matter if she annoys some
:04:25. > :04:30.business leaders? Isn't that part of her brand? Will there be problems on
:04:31. > :04:33.the Tory backbenches with it? I think there will be and I think it
:04:34. > :04:36.does matter at this sensitive time for when we are positioning
:04:37. > :04:41.ourselves as a country and whether we are going to brand ourselves as a
:04:42. > :04:44.great city of business, implementing quite interventionist policies. Any
:04:45. > :04:49.suggestion that the government can control how much the top earners
:04:50. > :04:53.get, I think would be received in a hostile way. What would be wrong
:04:54. > :04:58.with the shareholders, who own the company, determining the pay of the
:04:59. > :05:01.higher hands, the executives? Morally, you can absolutely make
:05:02. > :05:06.that argument but to business leaders, they will not like it.
:05:07. > :05:09.Ultimately, this will not come down to more than a row of beans. There
:05:10. > :05:12.was a huge debate about whether there should be quotas of women on
:05:13. > :05:19.boards. In the end, that never happened. All we get is figures. But
:05:20. > :05:25.quotas of women, for which there is a case and a case against too, that
:05:26. > :05:28.was a government mandate. This is not, this is simply empowering
:05:29. > :05:35.shareholders who own the company to determine the pay of the people they
:05:36. > :05:39.hire. There is a strong moral argument for it. Strong economic
:05:40. > :05:45.argument. But the Tory backbenchers will not like this. The downside is
:05:46. > :05:49.that this is a world where companies are thinking about upping sticks to
:05:50. > :05:54.Europe. No, they say they are thinking of that. Not one has done
:05:55. > :05:59.it yet. Others have made massive investments in this country. But is
:06:00. > :06:06.it not an incentive for those making these threats to actually do it? In
:06:07. > :06:11.Europe, bankers' pay is now mandated by Brussels. It is a vivid way of
:06:12. > :06:20.showing you are addressing the issue of inequality. I think she will go
:06:21. > :06:25.with it, but let's move on to Ukip. I think we will get the result
:06:26. > :06:32.tomorrow. There are the top three candidates. Paul Nuttall, Suzanne
:06:33. > :06:36.Evans and on my right, John Reid Evans. One of them will be the next
:06:37. > :06:41.leader. Who is going to win? It is widely predicted to be Paul Nuttall
:06:42. > :06:45.and is probably the outcome that the Labour Party fears most. Paul
:06:46. > :06:49.Nuttall is a very effective communicator. He is not a household
:06:50. > :06:55.name, far from it, but people will begin to learn more about him and
:06:56. > :07:00.find that he is actually quite a strong leader. Can people Ukip
:07:01. > :07:08.together again after this shambolic period since the referendum? If
:07:09. > :07:12.anyone can, he can. And his brand of working collar, Northern Ukip is the
:07:13. > :07:18.thing that will work for them. Do you think he is the favourite? It
:07:19. > :07:22.would be amazing if he doesn't win. His greatest problem will be getting
:07:23. > :07:29.Nigel Farage off his back. He is going on a speaking tour of North
:07:30. > :07:32.America. A long speaking tour. Ukip won this EU referendum. They had the
:07:33. > :07:37.chance to hoover up these discontented Labour voters in the
:07:38. > :07:41.north, and all he has done is associated with Ukip with Farage.
:07:42. > :07:47.But Nigel Farage is fed up of Ukip and will be glad to be hands of it.
:07:48. > :07:53.The bigger problem is money. If it is Paul Nuttall, and we don't know
:07:54. > :07:56.the results yet, but he is the favourite, if it is him, I would
:07:57. > :08:00.suggest that that is the result Labour is frightened of most. To be
:08:01. > :08:04.honest, I think they are frightened of Ukip whatever the result.
:08:05. > :08:11.Possibly with good cause. The reason I qualify that is that what you call
:08:12. > :08:14.a shambles over the summer has been something that goes beyond Monty
:08:15. > :08:20.Python in its absurdity and madness. That calls into question whether it
:08:21. > :08:25.can function as a political party when you have what has gone on. The
:08:26. > :08:32.number of leaders itself has been an act of madness. In a context which
:08:33. > :08:36.should be fantastic for them. They have won a referendum. There is a
:08:37. > :08:40.debate about what form Brexit should take, it is a dream for them, and
:08:41. > :08:44.they have gone bonkers. If he can turn it around, I agree that he is a
:08:45. > :08:48.powerful media communicator, and then it is a threat to Labour. But
:08:49. > :08:53.he has got to show that first. Indeed. The by-election in Richmond
:08:54. > :08:58.in south-west London, called by Zac Goldsmith over Heathrow. Has it
:08:59. > :09:02.turned out to be a by-election about Heathrow, or has it turned into a
:09:03. > :09:08.by-election, which is what the Lib Dems wanted, about Brexit? We will
:09:09. > :09:11.know on Thursday. If the Lib Dems win, they will turn it into an EU
:09:12. > :09:17.referendum. It seems incredibly close now. The Lib Dems are swamping
:09:18. > :09:20.Richmond. They had 1000 activists there yesterday. That is getting on
:09:21. > :09:25.for 100th of the population of the place! If the Lib Dems don't manage
:09:26. > :09:29.to win on Thursday and don't manage to turn it into an EU referendum
:09:30. > :09:36.despite all their efforts, it will probably be a disaster for the
:09:37. > :09:41.party. What do you hear, Isabel? I hear that the Lib Dems have
:09:42. > :09:45.absolutely swamped the constituency, but this may backfire. I saw a bit
:09:46. > :09:50.of this myself, living in Witney, when the Lib Dems also swamped and
:09:51. > :09:56.people began to get fed up of their aggressive tactics. I understand
:09:57. > :10:02.that Zac Goldsmith is cautiously optimistic that he will pull this
:10:03. > :10:10.one off. Quick stab at the result? I don't know. But we are entering a
:10:11. > :10:14.period when by-elections are acquiring significant again. If the
:10:15. > :10:20.Lib Dems were to make a game, it would breathe life into that near
:10:21. > :10:23.moribund party like nothing else. Similarly, other by-elections in
:10:24. > :10:28.this shapeless political world we are in are going to become
:10:29. > :10:31.significant. We don't know if we are covering it live on Thursday night
:10:32. > :10:37.yet because we have to find at the time they are going to declare.
:10:38. > :10:41.Richmond are quite late in declaring, but if it is in the early
:10:42. > :10:46.hours, that is fine. If it is on breakfast television, they be not. I
:10:47. > :10:51.want to show you this. Michael Gove was on the Andrew Marr Show this
:10:52. > :10:55.morning. In the now notorious comment that I made, I was actually
:10:56. > :10:57.cut off in midstream, as politicians often. The point I made was not that
:10:58. > :11:08.all experts are that is nonsense. Expert engineers, doctors and
:11:09. > :11:11.physicists are not wrong. But there is a subclass of experts,
:11:12. > :11:16.particularly social scientists, who have to reflect on some of the
:11:17. > :11:19.mistakes they have made. And the recession, which was predicted that
:11:20. > :11:26.we would have if we voted to leave, has gone like a puff of smoke. So
:11:27. > :11:29.economic experts, he talks about. The Chancellor has based all of his
:11:30. > :11:36.forward predictions in this Autumn Statement on the economic expert
:11:37. > :11:42.forecasters. The Office for Budget Responsibility has said it is 50-50,
:11:43. > :11:46.which is the toss of a coin. But what was he supposed to do? You
:11:47. > :11:52.would ideally have to have a Budget that had several sets of scenarios,
:11:53. > :11:59.and that is impossible. Crystal ball territory. But you do wonder if
:12:00. > :12:02.governments are right to do so much of their fiscal projections on the
:12:03. > :12:08.basis of forecasts which turn out to be wrong. They have nothing else to
:12:09. > :12:13.go on. The Treasury forecast is to be wrong. No doubt the OBR forecast
:12:14. > :12:16.will prove not to be exact. As you say, they admitted that they are
:12:17. > :12:21.navigating through fog at the moment. But he also added that it
:12:22. > :12:25.was fog caused by Brexit. So Brexit, even if you accept that these
:12:26. > :12:32.forecasts might be wrong, is causing such a level of uncertainty. He put
:12:33. > :12:43.the figure at 60 billion. That could come to haunt him. He hasn't got a
:12:44. > :12:46.clue. He admitted it. He said, Parliament mandates me to come up
:12:47. > :12:49.with something, so I am going to give you a number. But I wouldn't
:12:50. > :12:55.trust it if I were you, he basically said. I agree with you. The man who
:12:56. > :12:58.borrowed 122 billion more off the back of a coin toss was Philip
:12:59. > :13:02.Hammond. It begs the question, what does that say about the confidence
:13:03. > :13:08.Philip Hammond has in his own government's renegotiation? Not a
:13:09. > :13:12.huge amount. I agree. Philip Hammond quoted the OBR figures. He basically
:13:13. > :13:18.said, this is uncertain and it looks bad, and on we go with it. It is a
:13:19. > :13:23.very interesting situation, he said. He was for Remain and he works in a
:13:24. > :13:28.department which regards it as a disaster, whatever everyone else
:13:29. > :13:31.thinks. I have just been told we are covering the by-election. We are
:13:32. > :13:33.part of the constitution. Jo Coburn will have more
:13:34. > :13:35.Daily Politics tomorrow And I'll be back here on BBC One
:13:36. > :13:39.next Sunday at 11. Remember - if it's Sunday,
:13:40. > :14:13.it's the Sunday Politics. to signify the Africans
:14:14. > :14:17.who were here. The story of Henry VIII
:14:18. > :14:43.and his six wives and into the private lives
:14:44. > :14:55.of Henry's six wives. My heart is filled with sorrow.
:14:56. > :14:59.I am not a fool.