:00:39. > :00:40.Morning, folks, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.
:00:41. > :00:43.Hard line remainers strike back at Brexit.
:00:44. > :00:45.Are they trying to overturn the result of June's referendum
:00:46. > :00:48.by forcing a second vote before we leave?
:00:49. > :00:51.Australia's man in London tells us that life outside the EU "can be
:00:52. > :00:56.pretty good" and that Brexit will "not be as hard as people say".
:00:57. > :00:58.Could leaving the EU free Britain to do more business
:00:59. > :01:04.It's been called "disgusting, dangerous and deadly"
:01:05. > :01:10.but how polluted is our air, how bad for our health,
:01:11. > :01:14.New funding for schools but will children in rural areas
:01:15. > :01:16.benefit at the expense of inner-city pupils?
:01:17. > :01:27.And we look back at a year of turmoil in politics.
:01:28. > :01:31.And with me in the Sunday Politics grotto, the Dasher, Dancer
:01:32. > :01:33.and Prancer of political punditry Iain Martin,
:01:34. > :01:42.They'll be delivering tweets throughout the programme.
:01:43. > :01:48.First this morning, some say they will fight
:01:49. > :01:51.for what they call a "soft Brexit", but now there's an attempt by those
:01:52. > :01:54.who campaigned for Britain to remain in the EU to allow the British
:01:55. > :01:57.people to change their minds - possibly with a second referendum -
:01:58. > :02:01.The Labour MEP Richard Corbett is revealed this morning to have
:02:02. > :02:03.tried to amend European Parliament resolutions.
:02:04. > :02:06.The original resolution called on the European Parliament
:02:07. > :02:09.to "respect the will of the majority of the citizens
:02:10. > :02:24.of the United Kingdom to leave the EU".
:02:25. > :02:29.He also proposed removing the wording "stress that this wish
:02:30. > :02:32.must be respected" and adding "while taking account of the 48.1%
:02:33. > :02:44.The amendments were proposed in October,
:02:45. > :02:48.but were rejected by a vote in the Brussels
:02:49. > :02:49.Constitutional Affairs Committee earlier this month.
:02:50. > :02:52.The report will be voted on by all MEPs in February.
:02:53. > :02:55.Well, joining me now from Leeds is the Labour MEP who proposed
:02:56. > :03:04.Good morning. Thanks for joining us at short notice. Is your aim to try
:03:05. > :03:09.and reverse what happened on June 23? My aim with those amendments was
:03:10. > :03:13.simply factual. It is rather odd that these amendments of two months
:03:14. > :03:19.ago are suddenly used paper headlines in three very different
:03:20. > :03:25.newspapers on the same day. It smacks of a sort of concerted effort
:03:26. > :03:30.to try and slapped down any notion that Britain might perhaps want to
:03:31. > :03:35.rethink its position on Brexit as the cost of Brexit emerges. You
:03:36. > :03:40.would like us to rethink the position even before the cost urges?
:03:41. > :03:45.I get lots of letters from people saying how one, this was an advisory
:03:46. > :03:52.referendum won by a narrow majority on the basis of a pack of lies and a
:03:53. > :03:55.questionable mandate. But if there is a mandate from this referendum,
:03:56. > :03:59.it is surely to secure a Brexit that works for Britain without sinking
:04:00. > :04:03.the economy. And if it transpires as we move forward, that this will be a
:04:04. > :04:07.very costly exercise, then there will be people who voted leave who
:04:08. > :04:12.said Hang on, this is not what I was told. I was told this would save
:04:13. > :04:14.money, we could put it in the NHS, but if it is going to cost us and
:04:15. > :04:31.our Monday leg, I would the right to reconsider. But
:04:32. > :04:34.your aim is not get a Brexit that would work for Britain, your aim is
:04:35. > :04:37.to stop it? If we got a Brexit that would work for Britain, that would
:04:38. > :04:40.respect the mandate. But if we cannot get that, if it is going to
:04:41. > :04:43.be a disaster, if it is going to cost people jobs and cost Britain
:04:44. > :04:46.money, it is something we might want to pause and rethink. The government
:04:47. > :04:52.said it is going to come forward with a plan. That is good. We need
:04:53. > :04:59.to know what options to go for as a country. Do we want to stay in the
:05:00. > :05:02.single market, the customs union, the various agencies? And options
:05:03. > :05:08.should be costed so we can all see how much they cost of Brexit will
:05:09. > :05:12.be. If you were simply going to try and make the resolution is more
:05:13. > :05:20.illegal, why did the constitutional committee vote them down? This is a
:05:21. > :05:26.report about future treaty amendments down the road for years
:05:27. > :05:34.to come. This was not the main focus of the report, it was a side
:05:35. > :05:40.reference, in which was put the idea for Association partnerships. Will
:05:41. > :05:48.you push for the idea before the full parliament? I must see what the
:05:49. > :05:55.text is. You said there is a widespread view in labour that if
:05:56. > :05:58.the Brexit view is bad we should not exclude everything, I take it you
:05:59. > :06:06.mean another referendum. When you were named down these amendments,
:06:07. > :06:10.was this just acting on your own initiative, or acting on behalf of
:06:11. > :06:17.the Labour Party? I am just be humble lame-duck MEP in the European
:06:18. > :06:22.Parliament. It makes sense from any point of view that if the course of
:06:23. > :06:26.action you have embarked on turns out to be much more costly and
:06:27. > :06:30.disastrous than you had anticipated, that you might want the chance to
:06:31. > :06:35.think again. You might come to the same conclusion, of course, but you
:06:36. > :06:41.might think, wait a minute, let's have a look at this. But let's be
:06:42. > :06:44.clear, even though you are deputy leader of Labour in the European
:06:45. > :06:52.Parliament, you're acting alone and not as Labour Party policy? I am
:06:53. > :06:57.acting in the constitutional affairs committee. All I am doing is stating
:06:58. > :07:00.things which are common sense. If as we move forward then this turns out
:07:01. > :07:05.to be a disaster, we need to look very carefully at where we are
:07:06. > :07:11.going. But if a deal is done under Article 50, and we get to see the
:07:12. > :07:16.shape of that deal by the end of 2019 under the two-year timetable,
:07:17. > :07:20.in your words, we won't know if it is a disaster or not until it is
:07:21. > :07:27.implemented. We won't be able to tell until we see the results about
:07:28. > :07:34.whether it is good or bad, surely? We might well be able to, because
:07:35. > :07:39.that has to take account of the future framework of relationships
:07:40. > :07:41.with the European Union, to quote the article of the treaty. That
:07:42. > :07:46.means we should have some idea about what that will be like. Will we be
:07:47. > :07:50.outside the customs union, for instance, which will be very
:07:51. > :07:55.damaging for our economy? Or will we have to stay inside and follow the
:07:56. > :07:58.rules without having a say on them. We won't know until we leave the
:07:59. > :08:02.customs union. You think it will be damaging, others think it will give
:08:03. > :08:07.us the opportunity to do massive trade deals. My case this morning is
:08:08. > :08:11.not what is right or wrong, we will not know until we have seen the
:08:12. > :08:15.results. We will know a heck of a lot more than we do now when we see
:08:16. > :08:18.that Article 50 divorce agreement. We will know the terms of the
:08:19. > :08:22.divorce, we will know how much we still have to pay into the EU budget
:08:23. > :08:27.for legacy costs. We will know whether we will be in the single
:08:28. > :08:32.market customs union or not. We will know about the agencies. We will
:08:33. > :08:35.know a lot of things. If the deal on the table looks as if it will be
:08:36. > :08:42.damaging to Britain, then Parliament will be in its rights to say, wait a
:08:43. > :08:45.minute, not this deal. And then you either renegotiate or you reconsider
:08:46. > :08:50.the whole issue of Brexit or you find another solution. We need to
:08:51. > :08:55.leave it there but thank you for joining us.
:08:56. > :09:02.Iain Martin, how serious is the attempt to in effect an wind what
:09:03. > :09:06.happened on June 23? I think it is pretty serious and that interview
:09:07. > :09:11.illustrates very well the most damaging impact of the approach
:09:12. > :09:17.taken by a lot of Remainers, which is essentially to say with one
:09:18. > :09:20.breath, we of course accept the result, but with every action
:09:21. > :09:23.subsequent to that to try and undermine the result or try and are
:09:24. > :09:28.sure that the deal is as bad as possible. I think what needed to
:09:29. > :09:33.happen and hasn't happened after June 23 is you have the extremists
:09:34. > :09:39.on both sides and you have in the middle probably 70% of public
:09:40. > :09:45.opinion, moderate leaders, moderate Remainers should be working together
:09:46. > :09:52.to try and get British bespoke deal. But moderate Leavers will not take
:09:53. > :09:57.moderate Remainers seriously if this is the approach taken at every
:09:58. > :10:07.single turn to try and rerun the referendum. He did not say whether
:10:08. > :10:11.it was Labour policy? That was a question which was ducked. I do not
:10:12. > :10:17.think it is Labour Party policy. I think most people are in a morass in
:10:18. > :10:20.the middle. I think the screaming that happens when anybody dares to
:10:21. > :10:25.question or suggest that you might ever want to think again about these
:10:26. > :10:29.things, I disagree with him about having another referendum but if he
:10:30. > :10:33.wants to campaign for that it is his democratic right to do so. If you
:10:34. > :10:38.can convince enough people it is a good idea then he has succeeded. But
:10:39. > :10:43.the idea that we would do a deal and then realise this is a really bad
:10:44. > :10:50.deal, let's not proceed, we will not really know that until the deal is
:10:51. > :10:54.implemented. What our access is to the single market, whether or not we
:10:55. > :10:58.are in or out of the customs union which we will talk about in a
:10:59. > :11:03.minute, what immigration policy we will have, whether these are going
:11:04. > :11:07.to be good things bad things, surely you have got to wait for four, five,
:11:08. > :11:11.six years to see if it has worked or not? Yes, and by which stage
:11:12. > :11:15.Parliament will have voted on it and there will be no going back from it,
:11:16. > :11:20.or maybe there will. We are talking now about the first three months of
:11:21. > :11:28.2019. That is absolutely the moment when Parliament agrees with Theresa
:11:29. > :11:39.May or not. One arch remain I spoke to, and arch Remainiac, he said that
:11:40. > :11:48.Theresa May will bring this to Parliament in 2019 and could say I
:11:49. > :11:53.recommend that we reject it. What is he on or she? Some strong chemical
:11:54. > :11:59.drugs! The point is that all manner of things could happen. I don't
:12:00. > :12:04.think any of us take it seriously for now but the future is a very
:12:05. > :12:08.long way away. Earlier, the trade Secretary Liam Fox was asked if we
:12:09. > :12:11.would stay in the customs union after Brexit.
:12:12. > :12:17.There would be limitations on what we would do in terms of tariff
:12:18. > :12:23.setting which could limit the deals we would do, but we want to look at
:12:24. > :12:27.all the different deals. There is hard Brexit and soft Brexit as if it
:12:28. > :12:32.is a boiled egg we are talking about. Turkey is in part of the
:12:33. > :12:39.customs union but not other parts. What we need to do is look at the
:12:40. > :12:43.cost. This is what I picked up. The government knows it cannot remain a
:12:44. > :12:48.member of the single market in these negotiations, because that would
:12:49. > :12:51.make us subject to free movement and the European Court. The customs
:12:52. > :12:56.union and the Prime Minister 's office doesn't seem to be quite as
:12:57. > :13:00.binary, that you can be a little bit in and a little bit out, but I would
:13:01. > :13:05.suggest that overall Liam Fox knows to do all the trade deals we want to
:13:06. > :13:09.do we basically have to be out. But what he also seems to know is that
:13:10. > :13:15.is a minority view in Cabinet. He said he was not going to give his
:13:16. > :13:24.opinion publicly. There is still an argument going on about it in
:13:25. > :13:27.Cabinet. When David Liddington struggled against Emily Thornbury
:13:28. > :13:30.PMQs, he did not know about the customs union. What is apparent is
:13:31. > :13:37.Theresa May has not told him what to think about that. If we stay in the
:13:38. > :13:44.customs union we cannot do our own free trade deals. We are behind the
:13:45. > :13:48.customs union, the tariff barriers set by Europe? Not quite. Turkey is
:13:49. > :13:53.proof of the pudding. There are limited exemptions but they can do
:13:54. > :14:01.free trade with their neighbours. Not on goods. They are doing a trade
:14:02. > :14:05.deal with Pakistan at the moment, it relies on foreign trade investment
:14:06. > :14:09.but Europe negotiates on turkey's behalf on the major free-trade
:14:10. > :14:13.deals. This is absolutely why the customs union will be the fault line
:14:14. > :14:17.for the deal we are trying to achieve. Interestingly, I thought
:14:18. > :14:22.Liam Fox suggested during that interview that he was prepared to
:14:23. > :14:27.suck up whatever it was. I think he was saying there is still an
:14:28. > :14:35.argument and he intends to win it. He wants to leave it because he
:14:36. > :14:39.wants to do these free-trade deals. There is an argument in the cabinet
:14:40. > :14:45.about precisely that. The other thing to consider is in this country
:14:46. > :14:49.we have tended to focus too much on the British angle in negotiations,
:14:50. > :14:52.but I think the negotiations are going to be very difficult. You look
:14:53. > :14:56.at the state of the EU at the moment, you look at what is
:14:57. > :15:03.happening in Italy, France, Germany, look at the 27. It is possible I
:15:04. > :15:07.think that Britain could design a bespoke sensible deal but then it
:15:08. > :15:15.becomes very difficult to agree which is why I ultimately think we
:15:16. > :15:16.are heading for a harder Brexit. It will be about developing in this
:15:17. > :15:20.country. So, we've had a warning this week
:15:21. > :15:23.that it could take ten years to do a trade deal
:15:24. > :15:26.with the EU after Brexit. But could opportunities to expand
:15:27. > :15:28.trade lie elsewhere? Australia was one of the first
:15:29. > :15:30.countries to indicate its willingness to do a deal
:15:31. > :15:33.with the UK and now its High Commissioner in London has told
:15:34. > :15:35.us that life outside the EU He made this exclusive film
:15:36. > :15:51.for the Sunday Politics. My father was the Australian High
:15:52. > :15:54.Commissioner in the early 70s when the UK joined
:15:55. > :15:56.the European Union, Now I'm in the job,
:15:57. > :16:04.the UK is leaving. Australia supported
:16:05. > :16:06.Britain remaining a member of the European Union,
:16:07. > :16:09.but we respect the decision that Now that the decision has been made,
:16:10. > :16:15.we hope that Britain will get on with the process
:16:16. > :16:19.of negotiating their exit from the European Union and make
:16:20. > :16:22.the most of the opportunities that Following the referendum decision,
:16:23. > :16:29.Australia approached the British Government
:16:30. > :16:31.with a proposal. We offered, when the time was right,
:16:32. > :16:34.to negotiate a free trade agreement. The British and Australian
:16:35. > :16:41.governments have already established a working group to explore a future,
:16:42. > :16:43.ambitious trade agreement once A free trade agreement will provide
:16:44. > :16:56.great opportunities for consumers Australian consumers could purchase
:16:57. > :17:01.British-made cars for less We would give British
:17:02. > :17:06.households access to cheaper, Our summer is during your winter,
:17:07. > :17:12.so Australia could provide British households with fresh produce
:17:13. > :17:16.when the equivalent British or Australian households would have
:17:17. > :17:23.access to British products Free-trade agreements
:17:24. > :17:36.are also about investment. The UK is the second-largest source
:17:37. > :17:40.of foreign investment in Australia. By the way, Australia also invests
:17:41. > :17:46.over ?200 billion in the UK, so a free trade agreement
:17:47. > :17:49.would stimulate investment, But, by the way, free-trade
:17:50. > :17:54.agreements are not just about trade and investment,
:17:55. > :17:58.they are also about geopolitics. Countries with good trade relations
:17:59. > :18:02.often work more closely together in other fields including security,
:18:03. > :18:06.the spread of democracy We may have preferred
:18:07. > :18:19.the UKto remain in the EU, We may have preferred the UK
:18:20. > :18:22.to remain in the EU, but life outside as we know can
:18:23. > :18:24.be pretty good. We have negotiated eight free-trade
:18:25. > :18:27.agreements over the last 12 years, including a free-trade agreement
:18:28. > :18:29.with the United States This is one of the reasons why
:18:30. > :18:41.the Australian economy has continued to grow over the last 25 years
:18:42. > :18:44.and we, of course, are not Australia welcomes Theresa May's
:18:45. > :18:54.vision for the UK to become a global We are willing to help
:18:55. > :19:24.in any way we can. Welcome to the programme. The
:19:25. > :19:27.Australian government says it wants to negotiate an important trade deal
:19:28. > :19:34.with the UK as efficiently and promptly as possible when Brexit is
:19:35. > :19:39.complete. How prompt is prompt? There are legal issues obviously.
:19:40. > :19:44.The UK, for as long as it remains in the EU, cannot negotiate individual
:19:45. > :19:49.trade deals. Once it leaves it can. We will negotiate a agreement with
:19:50. > :19:54.the UK when the time is right, by which we mean we can do preliminary
:19:55. > :20:00.examination. Are you talking now about the parameters? We are talking
:20:01. > :20:03.already, we have set up a joint working group with the British
:20:04. > :20:06.Government and we are scoping the issue to try to understand what
:20:07. > :20:13.questions will arise in any negotiation. But we cannot have
:20:14. > :20:19.formally a negotiation. Until the country is out. Why is there no
:20:20. > :20:22.free-trade deal between Australia and the European Union? It is a long
:20:23. > :20:29.and tortuous story. Give me the headline. Basically Australian
:20:30. > :20:35.agriculture is either banned or hugely restricted in terms of its
:20:36. > :20:39.access to the European Union. So we see the European Union, Australia's,
:20:40. > :20:45.is a pretty protectionist sort of organisation. Now we are doing a
:20:46. > :20:48.scoping study on a free-trade agreement with the European Union
:20:49. > :20:54.and we hope that next year we can enter into negotiations with them.
:20:55. > :20:59.But we have no illusions this would be a very difficult negotiation, but
:21:00. > :21:04.one we are giving priority to. Is there not a danger that when Britain
:21:05. > :21:08.leaves the EU the EU will become more protectionist? This country has
:21:09. > :21:13.always been the most powerful voice for free trade. I hope that does not
:21:14. > :21:19.happen, but the reason why we wanted Britain to remain in the European
:21:20. > :21:25.Union is because it brought to the table the whole free-trade mentality
:21:26. > :21:28.which has been an historic part of Britain's approach to international
:21:29. > :21:33.relations. Without the UK in the European Union you will lose that.
:21:34. > :21:36.It is a very loud voice in the European Union and you will lose
:21:37. > :21:42.that voice and that will be a disadvantage. The figure that jumped
:21:43. > :21:45.out of me in the film is it to you only 15 months to negotiate a
:21:46. > :21:51.free-trade deal with the United States. Yes, the thing is it is
:21:52. > :21:56.about political will. A free-trade agreement will be no problem unless
:21:57. > :22:01.you want to protect particular sectors of your economy. In that
:22:02. > :22:06.case there was one sector the Americans insisted on protecting and
:22:07. > :22:10.that was their sugar industry. In the end after 15 months of
:22:11. > :22:16.negotiation two relatively free trading countries have fixed up
:22:17. > :22:20.nearly everything. But we had to ask would be go ahead with this
:22:21. > :22:25.free-trade agreement without sugar west we decided to do that. Other
:22:26. > :22:29.than that it was relatively easy to negotiate because we are both
:22:30. > :22:33.free-trade countries. With the UK you cannot be sure, but I do not
:22:34. > :22:38.think a free-trade agreement would take very long to negotiate with the
:22:39. > :22:43.UK because the UK would not want to put a lot of obstacles in the way to
:22:44. > :22:47.Australia. Not to give away our hand, we would not want to put a lot
:22:48. > :22:54.of obstacles in the way of British exports. The trend in recent years
:22:55. > :22:58.is to do big, regional trade deals, but President-elect Donald Trump has
:22:59. > :23:03.made clear the Pacific trade deal is dead. The transatlantic trade deal
:23:04. > :23:07.is almost dead as well. The American election put a nail in the coffin
:23:08. > :23:12.and the French elections could put another nail in the coffin. Are we
:23:13. > :23:16.returning to a world of lateral trade deals, country with country
:23:17. > :23:24.rather than regional blocs? Not necessarily. In the Asia Pacific we
:23:25. > :23:27.will look at multilateral trade arrangements and even if the
:23:28. > :23:31.transpacific partnership is not ratified by the Americans, we have
:23:32. > :23:36.other options are there. However, our approach has been the ultimate
:23:37. > :23:42.would be free-trade throughout the world which is proving hard to
:23:43. > :23:45.achieve. Secondly, if we can get a lot of countries engaged in a
:23:46. > :23:51.free-trade negotiation, that is pretty good if possible. But it is
:23:52. > :23:57.more difficult. But we do bilateral trade agreements. We have one with
:23:58. > :24:01.China, Japan, the United States, Singapore, and the list goes on, and
:24:02. > :24:09.they have been hugely beneficial to Australia. You have been dealing
:24:10. > :24:13.with the EU free deal, what lessons are there? How quickly do you think
:24:14. > :24:19.Britain could do a free-trade deal with the EU if we leave? Well, there
:24:20. > :24:23.is a completely different concept involved in the case of Britain and
:24:24. > :24:29.the EU and that is at the moment there are no restrictions on trade.
:24:30. > :24:33.So you and the EU would be talking about whether you will direct
:24:34. > :24:38.barriers to trade. We are outsiders and we do not get too much involved
:24:39. > :24:45.in this debate except to say we do not want to see the global trade
:24:46. > :24:48.system disrupted by the direction of tariff barriers between the United
:24:49. > :24:54.Kingdom, the fifth biggest economy in the world, and the European
:24:55. > :24:59.Union. Our expectation is not just the British but the Europeans will
:25:00. > :25:03.try to make the transition to Brexit as smooth as possible particularly
:25:04. > :25:08.commercially. Say yes or no if you can. If Britain and Australia make a
:25:09. > :25:12.free-trade agreement, would that include free movement of the
:25:13. > :25:19.Australian and the British people? We will probably stick with our
:25:20. > :25:22.present non-discriminatory system. Australia does not discriminate
:25:23. > :25:27.against any country. The European Union's free movement means you
:25:28. > :25:31.discriminate against non-Europeans. Probably not.
:25:32. > :25:34.It could lead to a ban on diesel cars, prevent the building
:25:35. > :25:37.of a third runway at Heathrow, and will certainly make it
:25:38. > :25:39.more expensive to drive in our towns and cities.
:25:40. > :25:41.Air pollution has been called the "public health crisis
:25:42. > :25:44.of a generation" - but just how serious is the problem?
:25:45. > :25:57.40,000 early deaths result from air pollution every year in the UK.
:25:58. > :26:04.Almost 10,000 Londoners each year die prematurely.
:26:05. > :26:10.It seems at times we can get caught up in alarming assertions
:26:11. > :26:12.about air pollution, that this is a public health
:26:13. > :26:16.emergency, that it is a silent killer, coming from politicians,
:26:17. > :26:24.But how bad is air quality in Britain really?
:26:25. > :26:28.Tony Frew is a professor in respiratory medicine and works
:26:29. > :26:30.at Brighton's Royal Sussex County Hospital.
:26:31. > :26:32.He has been looking into the recent claims
:26:33. > :26:38.It's a problem and it affects people's health.
:26:39. > :26:40.But when people start talking about the numbers
:26:41. > :26:43.of deaths here, I think they are misusing the statistics.
:26:44. > :26:48.There have been tremendous improvements in air quality
:26:49. > :26:53.There is a lot less pollution than there used to be
:26:54. > :26:56.and none of that is coming through in the public
:26:57. > :27:00.So what does Professor Frew make of the claim that alarming levels
:27:01. > :27:04.of toxicity in the air in the UK causes 40,000 deaths each year?
:27:05. > :27:06.It is not 40,000 people who should have air pollution
:27:07. > :27:08.on their death certificate, or 40,000 people who
:27:09. > :27:13.It's a lot of people who had a little bit of life shortening
:27:14. > :27:19.To examine these figures further we travelled to Cambridge to visit
:27:20. > :27:24.I asked him about the data on which these claims
:27:25. > :27:29.They come from a study on how mortality rates in US cities
:27:30. > :27:36.First of all, it is important to realise that that 40,000 figure
:27:37. > :27:42.29,000, which are due to fine particles, and another 11,000
:27:43. > :27:50.I will just talk about this group for a start.
:27:51. > :27:54.These are what are known as attributable deaths.
:27:55. > :27:58.Known as virtual deaths, they come from a complex statistical model.
:27:59. > :28:02.Quite remarkably it all comes from just one number and this
:28:03. > :28:06.was based on a study of US cities and they found out that
:28:07. > :28:10.by monitoring these cities over decades that the cities which had
:28:11. > :28:16.a higher level of pollution had a higher mortality rate.
:28:17. > :28:21.They estimated that there was a 6% increased risk of dying
:28:22. > :28:26.each year for each small increase in pollution.
:28:27. > :28:29.So this is quite a big figure, but it is important to realise
:28:30. > :28:33.it is only a best estimate and the committee that advises
:28:34. > :28:39.the government says that this figure could be between 1% and 12%.
:28:40. > :28:42.So this 6% figure is used to work out the 29,000
:28:43. > :28:47.Yes, through a rather complex statistical model.
:28:48. > :28:52.And a similar analysis gives rise to the 11,000 attributable deaths
:28:53. > :28:59.How much should we invest in cycling?
:29:00. > :29:02.Should we build a third runway at Heathrow?
:29:03. > :29:06.We need reliable statistics to answer those questions,
:29:07. > :29:10.but can we trust the way data is being used by campaigners?
:29:11. > :29:15.I think there are people who have such a passion for the environment
:29:16. > :29:17.and for air pollution that they don't really
:29:18. > :29:23.see it as a problem if they are deceiving the public.
:29:24. > :29:25.Greenpeace have been running a campaign claiming that breathing
:29:26. > :29:28.London's air is the equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day.
:29:29. > :29:33.If you smoke 15 cigarettes a day through your adult life,
:29:34. > :29:36.that will definitely take ten years off your life expectancy.
:29:37. > :29:38.If you are poor and you are in social class five,
:29:39. > :29:40.compared to social class one, that would take seven
:29:41. > :29:45.If you are poor and you smoke, that will take 17 years off your life.
:29:46. > :29:48.Now, we are talking about possibly, if we could get rid of all
:29:49. > :29:51.of the cars in London and all of the road transport,
:29:52. > :29:54.we could make a difference of two micrograms per metre squared in air
:29:55. > :30:00.pollution which might save you 30 days of your life.
:30:01. > :30:02.There is no doubt that air pollution is bad for you,
:30:03. > :30:05.but if we exaggerate the scale of the problem and the impact
:30:06. > :30:09.on our health, are we at risk of undermining the case for making
:30:10. > :30:19.And we are joined now by the Executive Director
:30:20. > :30:37.You have called pollution and national crisis and a health
:30:38. > :30:41.emergency. Around the UK are levels increasing or falling? They are
:30:42. > :30:51.remaining fairly static in London. Nationally? If you look at the
:30:52. > :30:57.studies on where air pollution is measured, in 42 cities around the
:30:58. > :31:01.UK, 38 cities were found to be breaking the legal limit on air
:31:02. > :31:06.pollution so basically all of the cities were breaking the limit so if
:31:07. > :31:09.you think eight out of ten people live in cities, obviously, this is
:31:10. > :31:14.impacting a lot of people around the UK. We have looked at in missions of
:31:15. > :31:24.solvent dioxide, they have fallen and since 1970, nitrogen dioxide is
:31:25. > :31:30.down 69%. Let me show you a chart. There are the nitrogen oxides which
:31:31. > :31:35.we have all been worried about. That chart shows a substantial fall from
:31:36. > :31:40.the 1970s, and then a really steep fall from the 1980s. That is
:31:41. > :31:47.something which is getting better. You have to look at it in the round.
:31:48. > :31:54.If you look at particulates, and if you look at today's understanding of
:31:55. > :32:03.the health impact. Let's look at particulates. We have been really
:32:04. > :32:08.worried about what they have been doing to our abilities to breathe
:32:09. > :32:13.good air, again, you see substantial improvement. Indeed, we are not far
:32:14. > :32:22.from the Gothenberg level which is a very high standard. What you see is
:32:23. > :32:27.it is pretty flat. I see it coming down quite substantially. Over the
:32:28. > :32:31.last decade it is pretty flat. If you look at the World Health
:32:32. > :32:35.Organisation guidelines, actually, these are at serious levels and they
:32:36. > :32:39.need to come down. We know the impact, particularly on children, if
:32:40. > :32:43.you look at what is happening to children and children's lungs, if
:32:44. > :32:48.you look at the impact of asthma and other impacts on children in cities
:32:49. > :32:52.and in schools next to main roads where pollution levels are very
:32:53. > :32:56.high, the impact of very serious. You have many doctors, professors
:32:57. > :33:02.and many studies by London University showing this to be true.
:33:03. > :33:06.The thing is, we do not want pollution. If we can get rid of
:33:07. > :33:11.pollution, let's do it. And also we also have to get rid of CO2 which is
:33:12. > :33:15.causing climate change. We are talking air pollution at the moment.
:33:16. > :33:19.The point is there is not still more to do, it is clear there is and
:33:20. > :33:24.there is no question about that, my question is you seem to deny that we
:33:25. > :33:29.have made any kind of progress and that you also say that air pollution
:33:30. > :33:36.causes 40,000 deaths a year in the UK, that is not true. The figure is
:33:37. > :33:46.40,000 premature deaths is what has been talked about by medical staff.
:33:47. > :33:51.Your website said courses. It causes premature deaths. What we are
:33:52. > :33:55.talking about here is can we solve the problem of air pollution? If air
:33:56. > :34:00.pollution is mainly being caused by diesel vehicles then we need to
:34:01. > :34:03.phase out diesel vehicles. If there are alternatives and clean Turner
:34:04. > :34:07.tips which will give better quality of air, better quality of life and
:34:08. > :34:11.clean up our cities, then why don't we take the chance to do it? You had
:34:12. > :34:19.the Australian High Commissioner on this programme earlier. He said to
:34:20. > :34:25.me earlier, why is your government supporting diesel? That is the most
:34:26. > :34:30.polluting form of transport. That may well be right but I am looking
:34:31. > :34:36.at Greenpeace's claims. You claim it causes 40,000 deaths, it is a figure
:34:37. > :34:41.which regularly appears. Let me quote the committee on the medical
:34:42. > :34:51.effects of air pollutants, it says this calculation, 40,000 which is
:34:52. > :34:55.everywhere in Greenpeace literature, is not an estimate of the number of
:34:56. > :34:59.people whose untimely death is caused entirely by air pollution,
:35:00. > :35:03.but a way of representing the effect across the whole population of air
:35:04. > :35:09.pollution when considered as a contributory factor to many more
:35:10. > :35:18.individual deaths. It is 40,000 premature deaths. It could be
:35:19. > :35:22.premature by a couple of days. It could me by a year. -- it could be
:35:23. > :35:24.by a year. It could also be giving children asthma and breathing
:35:25. > :35:33.difficulties. We are talking about deaths. It could also cause stroke
:35:34. > :35:41.and heart diseases. Medical experts say we need to deal with this. Do
:35:42. > :35:49.you believe air pollution causes 40,000 deaths a year. I have defined
:35:50. > :35:59.that. You accept it does not? It leads to 40,000 premature deaths.
:36:00. > :36:04.But 40,000 people are not killed. You say air pollution causes 40,000
:36:05. > :36:08.deaths each year on your website. I have just explained what I mean by
:36:09. > :36:13.that in terms of premature deaths. The question is, are we going to do
:36:14. > :36:17.something about that? Air pollution is a serious problem. It is mainly
:36:18. > :36:22.caused by diesel. If we phased diesel out it will solve the problem
:36:23. > :36:26.of air pollution and deal with the wider problem of climate change. I
:36:27. > :36:34.am not talking about climate change this morning. Let's link to another
:36:35. > :36:40.claim... Do you want to live in a clean city? Do you want to breathe
:36:41. > :36:45.clean air? Yes, don't generalise. Let's stick to your claims. You have
:36:46. > :36:49.also said living in London on your life is equivalent to smoking 50
:36:50. > :36:56.cigarettes a day. That is not true either. What I would say is if you
:36:57. > :36:59.look at passive smoking, it is the equivalent of I don't know what the
:37:00. > :37:03.actual figure is, I can't remember offhand, but it is the equivalent
:37:04. > :37:09.effect of about ten cigarettes being smoked passively. The question is in
:37:10. > :37:15.terms of, you are just throwing me out all of these things... I am
:37:16. > :37:19.throwing things that Greenpeace have claimed. Greenpeace have claimed
:37:20. > :37:23.that living in London is equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day and
:37:24. > :37:27.that takes ten years off your life. Professor Froome made it clear to us
:37:28. > :37:31.that living in London your whole life with levels of pollution does
:37:32. > :37:36.take time off your life but it takes nine months of your life. Nine
:37:37. > :37:40.months is still too much, I understand that, but it is not ten
:37:41. > :37:43.years and that is what you claim. I would suggest you realise that is a
:37:44. > :37:49.piece of propaganda because you claim on the website, you have taken
:37:50. > :37:52.it down. I agree it has been corrected and I agree with what the
:37:53. > :37:57.professor said that maybe it takes up to a year off your life, but the
:37:58. > :38:01.thing is, there are much more wider issues as well, in terms of the
:38:02. > :38:07.impact on air pollution, and in terms of the impact on young
:38:08. > :38:12.children. We can argue about the facts... But these are your claims,
:38:13. > :38:16.this is why I am hitting it to you. It does not get away from the
:38:17. > :38:21.underlying issue that air pollution is a serious problem. We are not
:38:22. > :38:25.arguing for a moment that it is not. Do you think the way you exaggerate
:38:26. > :38:30.things, put false claims, in the end, for of course we all agree
:38:31. > :38:36.with, getting the best air we can, you undermine your credibility? I
:38:37. > :38:39.absolutely do not support false claims and if mistakes have been
:38:40. > :38:45.made then mistakes have been made and they will be corrected. I think
:38:46. > :38:49.the key issue is how we are going to deal with air pollution. Clearly,
:38:50. > :38:55.diesel is the biggest problem and we need to work out a way how we can
:38:56. > :38:58.get away from diesel as quickly and fast as possible. Comeback and see
:38:59. > :39:01.us in the New Year and we will discuss diesel. Thank you.
:39:02. > :39:03.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:39:04. > :39:15.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:39:16. > :39:18.More money for some schools, but cuts for others
:39:19. > :39:20.as the Government tries to make funding fairer.
:39:21. > :39:23.We have to stop thinking about schools as a cost to society
:39:24. > :39:25.but think about investing in education as investing
:39:26. > :39:33.And which of our politicians will be celebrating around the Christmas
:39:34. > :39:35.tree and who'll be glad to see the back of 2016?
:39:36. > :39:38.We'll be picking the winners and losers in what's been
:39:39. > :39:40.an eventful year for politics and for our East
:39:41. > :39:50.My guests this week are two MPs who were both on the winning side
:39:51. > :39:53.of the big argument of 2016, backing Leave in the referendum.
:39:54. > :39:55.Andrew Bridgen is the Conservative MP for North West Leicestershire
:39:56. > :39:57.and John Mann is Labour's MP for Bassetlaw.
:39:58. > :40:05.First, let's look at the changes to social care announced this week.
:40:06. > :40:07.The Government's allowing councils to increase council tax to raise
:40:08. > :40:10.more money to tackle what's becoming a growing problem.
:40:11. > :40:15.Andrew Bridgen, councils are saying that it is really disappointing
:40:16. > :40:18.that the Government is not simply just giving them more money
:40:19. > :40:21.Well, the Government just doesn't have more money,
:40:22. > :40:23.all of the money comes from the taxpayer anyway.
:40:24. > :40:25.But this is a hypothecated tax, the money must be
:40:26. > :40:30.We know there is a huge and growing need with an ageing population
:40:31. > :40:33.and it will be spent locally, but it is not just all about money,
:40:34. > :40:35.it is about integrating social care and health.
:40:36. > :40:39.John Mann, Andrew Bridgen says that the Government is tackling
:40:40. > :40:42.the problem as much as it can, Labour has ducked this
:40:43. > :40:48.Well, there has been a ?4.6 billion cut since 2010,
:40:49. > :40:51.that is quite a lot of care that is not going on
:40:52. > :40:57.Actually, Andrew has got part of it right,
:40:58. > :41:00.if we merged the social care, let the NHS run social care.
:41:01. > :41:03.I have made that demand of government in my area,
:41:04. > :41:06.we will be the first to do it and the Government
:41:07. > :41:11.It has been talked about for years, however, and it has not happened.
:41:12. > :41:14.I have actually made that demand as well.
:41:15. > :41:17.We are the only developed country that has health and social care
:41:18. > :41:21.in separate budgets but one of the problem is that
:41:22. > :41:26.the Government do not want to be accused of another
:41:27. > :41:31.However, you have to make health and social care work together,
:41:32. > :41:33.otherwise it will just fall in between two budgets
:41:34. > :41:37.What we should do is let the NHS run social care in one
:41:38. > :41:41.The NHS has not got enough money either, though, has it?
:41:42. > :41:46.I want a situation where old people can live their lives in dignity
:41:47. > :41:49.and not what we have at the moment, which is a lottery
:41:50. > :41:54.That is what a civilised country should be.
:41:55. > :41:58.That is what I want as well, that is why people have to keep
:41:59. > :42:01.voting Conservative to keep the economy going and so that we can
:42:02. > :42:03.have proper public services and not go bankrupt like we always do
:42:04. > :42:07.But in Leicestershire, Andrew, they are having to make
:42:08. > :42:11.This money that they will get in is just a drop in the ocean
:42:12. > :42:13.when it comes to paying for social care.
:42:14. > :42:15.It is 3% on council tax this year, 3% next year...
:42:16. > :42:18.Which they have said is still not enough, the councils say.
:42:19. > :42:22.Plus an extra 900 million and a fund of 284 million to top up councils
:42:23. > :42:25.whose council tax take will not be as big because they have
:42:26. > :42:28.They have said that is a drop in the ocean.
:42:29. > :42:32.It is an issue that is going to get more acute because we have an ageing
:42:33. > :42:35.population, we are all living longer, there are many people out
:42:36. > :42:37.there with complex mobilities and we need to keep them
:42:38. > :42:40.in a lifestyle in their home for as long as possible, people
:42:41. > :42:43.do not want to end their lives in hospital for the last few years.
:42:44. > :42:51.Education has been a major concern in the East Midlands for decades
:42:52. > :42:54.now, with some of the poorest performing schools in the country.
:42:55. > :42:56.This week, the Government attempted to tackle the problem with plans
:42:57. > :42:58.for a radical overhaul of how schools are funded.
:42:59. > :43:01.It's aimed at ending an imbalance which means city schools get more
:43:02. > :43:06.But some critics say it means some of our worst performing areas
:43:07. > :43:12.The Christmas holidays are tantalisingly close and today's
:43:13. > :43:14.lesson has a seasonal theme, but money worries mean
:43:15. > :43:17.that their headteacher is struggling to feel festive.
:43:18. > :43:20.We are just about making ends meet but we're aware that it is becoming
:43:21. > :43:24.more and more difficult every year and the things that will go
:43:25. > :43:26.are those things that enhance the curriculum -
:43:27. > :43:29.theatre groups, visits out, but also, you know, losing
:43:30. > :43:32.teaching assistants, additional support in the classrooms
:43:33. > :43:36.are things that no other schools are having to consider at the moment
:43:37. > :43:40.and that will make a real difference to what we are able to do.
:43:41. > :43:43.Our school funding system, as it exists today, it's unfair,
:43:44. > :43:49.The new funding formula announced this week by the Education Secretary
:43:50. > :43:54.could actually leave Hillocks Primary better off.
:43:55. > :43:58.Schools in Nottinghamshire currently receive around ?4,300
:43:59. > :44:00.each year per pupil, but if you go down the road
:44:01. > :44:08.And this is one of the schools that benefits from the current formula,
:44:09. > :44:10.although parents at Ellis Guilford in Nottingham did help to foot
:44:11. > :44:16.In Leicestershire, the county council's long argued
:44:17. > :44:21.Obviously, the funding announcement is very welcome.
:44:22. > :44:24.We regard that as a step in the right direction.
:44:25. > :44:27.But we need the technical advice to look behind the figures that have
:44:28. > :44:33.And that's where the Government, I think, have been quite clever.
:44:34. > :44:37.They have not said they will do this overnight, they have said
:44:38. > :44:41.there will be a limit on how much any one school can lose or gain.
:44:42. > :44:43.The new system is supposed to make things fairer.
:44:44. > :44:45.There will be around 10,000 schools better off
:44:46. > :44:50.But the National Audit Office says overall, schools face a real terms
:44:51. > :44:55.budget cut of 8% over the next three years.
:44:56. > :44:59.The head here is also a senior vice president of the NUT and she thinks
:45:00. > :45:04.If we are in a position where we are not able to give them
:45:05. > :45:06.pay increases and we are not able to provide additional
:45:07. > :45:08.support in classrooms, that'll be another reason
:45:09. > :45:13.We have to stop thinking about schools as a cost to society,
:45:14. > :45:15.but think about investing in education as investing
:45:16. > :45:19.The Government's shiny new funding model has arrived giftwrapped
:45:20. > :45:21.in time for Christmas, but the decorations will be long
:45:22. > :45:27.gone before we really understand its impact.
:45:28. > :45:30.So, some good news there for rural areas with more money for them,
:45:31. > :45:34.but as we heard, it's coming from areas which many say need it
:45:35. > :45:43.Well, I have been a long-time campaigner in the F40 group
:45:44. > :45:46.for school funding and I think in Leicestershire we are going to
:45:47. > :45:49.Historically, we have either been the lowest funded per pupil
:45:50. > :45:57.in the country and I think we are now the second lowest.
:45:58. > :46:00.We have had a situation which you cannot defend,
:46:01. > :46:02.where every people in Birmingham is funded ?1000 a year more
:46:03. > :46:05.than pupils in my constituency and even pupils in Leicester
:46:06. > :46:20.It is much fairer because it is looking at it on a school basis.
:46:21. > :46:23.I have some pockets of deprivation as high as anywhere in the City
:46:24. > :46:25.of Westminster in my constituency which were not getting
:46:26. > :46:27.the funded they needed, this should sort that out.
:46:28. > :46:29.But the facts speak for themselves, don't they,
:46:30. > :46:32.You look at the counties, Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire,
:46:33. > :46:35.Leicestershire, they are generally above the national average for GCSEs
:46:36. > :46:36.but the cities, Nottingham, Derby, Leicester are below.
:46:37. > :46:38.Nottingham and Derby are actually in the bottom 20,
:46:39. > :46:41.so those facts speak for themselves, the cities need more money,
:46:42. > :46:45.They do because of attainment problems, but if you actually look
:46:46. > :46:48.at the Secretary of State's statement, that is being taken
:46:49. > :46:50.into account as well, so it is deprivation and also
:46:51. > :46:52.attainment, so where there are issues around attainment,
:46:53. > :46:56.It will be on a school by school basis.
:46:57. > :46:59.I have already looked at some of the detailed figures,
:47:00. > :47:02.not every school in my constituency will get an increase,
:47:03. > :47:07.Well, one of the ironies is when you are having
:47:08. > :47:09.your Christmas dinner, you will be raising a toast
:47:10. > :47:17.to the highest best performing schools in the country
:47:18. > :47:19.with an increase, and that is, of course, Bassetlaw,
:47:20. > :47:21.which has been totally transformed over the last ten years.
:47:22. > :47:23.Now, that has required money, but this formula, attainment,
:47:24. > :47:27.we will be doing too well and they will be telling us we have
:47:28. > :47:36.State funding of schools, now, you are doing a bit too good...
:47:37. > :47:38.Actually, mine is a relatively deprived area compared
:47:39. > :47:42.to most of the country, so we need the money.
:47:43. > :47:48.So, as ever, there is a sting in the tail with this Tory government.
:47:49. > :47:52.They pretend to be giving money and then they pull some of it back.
:47:53. > :47:54.There has been a historical imbalance, hasn't there, on this?
:47:55. > :47:57.Why should my area get less money...?
:47:58. > :47:59.Have a tape playing - we need more money.
:48:00. > :48:04.Actually, I will have some of your money because some of your areas
:48:05. > :48:08.We are already the third lowest per pupil...
:48:09. > :48:10.The biggest increase is in the south-east of England
:48:11. > :48:14.Hang on a minute, looking at some of the posh areas down there...
:48:15. > :48:16.Is the East Midlands losing out again?
:48:17. > :48:19.The East Midlands is gaining a bit but it should be gaining more
:48:20. > :48:28.Why are the kids in my area not funded as well as say
:48:29. > :48:41.Where would you get all this money from them? I would have some from
:48:42. > :48:45.Weybridge and Woking. Aside from arguments about what tax should be,
:48:46. > :48:49.just with the money that is available, we can do better. That is
:48:50. > :48:55.the version of socialism that John mine likes... Take from the richer
:48:56. > :49:01.areas, where they are getting more money than we are, actually, that
:49:02. > :49:04.was the campaign. We were sat together arguing about this. These
:49:05. > :49:08.areas are getting too much money, we should have favour funding. That is
:49:09. > :49:17.what the fairer funding campaign was about. We watched together. Your lot
:49:18. > :49:22.is twisted in the end. My area is doing really well, brilliant
:49:23. > :49:25.teachers, brilliant schools. The best in Nottinghamshire for the
:49:26. > :49:32.first time ever and you squeeze some money off of us... Hang on a minute,
:49:33. > :49:38.reward success, do not punish it. Reward success, that is great coming
:49:39. > :49:42.from a socialist! But you are not doing so! You have schools that are
:49:43. > :49:45.bottom of the pile, know they are top of the pile, that is brilliant,
:49:46. > :49:52.but then you take money away from them. There has got to be a level
:49:53. > :49:56.that you cannot go below in terms of funding because you have to fund the
:49:57. > :49:58.electricity bill, the teachers, in Leicestershire, I have schools with
:49:59. > :50:02.teachers because of their commitment to the school have not taken their
:50:03. > :50:09.girls cannot afford to pay them. Why girls cannot afford to pay them. Why
:50:10. > :50:12.not find out a few things that we could get rid of, like the House of
:50:13. > :50:16.Lords! Save some money and put that into the schools. The government
:50:17. > :50:21.departments like the Department for Education good shift that... That is
:50:22. > :50:26.only to save money! Some people might argue it is not the way. But
:50:27. > :50:30.it would be a very effective way. Some of the ways in which money is
:50:31. > :50:36.wasted by this government, that would be very sensible. We could
:50:37. > :50:39.join together on that, go into Parliament on Monday and say, we
:50:40. > :50:46.need a little bit more. This is how you do it. I think you are taking
:50:47. > :50:51.the festive feeling a little bit too far.
:50:52. > :50:54.From Brexit, to coups, to massive changes in government.
:50:55. > :50:56.And the East Midlands and its politicians have
:50:57. > :51:01.So who's had a good year, who's had a bit of a turkey?
:51:02. > :51:03.And what does next year have in store?
:51:04. > :51:07.Our political editor, Tony Roe, looks back at a memorable 2016.
:51:08. > :51:10.2016, the year when pretty much all the political punditry was wrong.
:51:11. > :51:12.Prediction number one, there will be an EU referendum
:51:13. > :51:17.Prediction number two, Hillary Clinton will be US president.
:51:18. > :51:34.Doubts were there for those Labour campaigners on the ground
:51:35. > :51:45.Gordon Brown came here to De Montfort University,
:51:46. > :51:49.the problem was, Gordon Brown was speaking to those who were
:51:50. > :51:54.Those wanting to leave took to the streets.
:51:55. > :52:05.It was a big surprise when the referendum result came.
:52:06. > :52:10.It either caused political careers to crash or they were reinvigorated.
:52:11. > :52:12.Well, somebody's gone smack into this poor thing.
:52:13. > :52:15.Rutland's Sir Alan Duncan went from being in charge of decluttering
:52:16. > :52:17.the nation's road signs to representing the Government
:52:18. > :52:19.at Fidel Castro's funeral as a Foreign Office Minister.
:52:20. > :52:25.They are ugly, unnecessary, get rid of the whole lot.
:52:26. > :52:27.But there was Labour mutiny in the East Midlands
:52:28. > :52:30.In one heady weekend in June, Gloria De Piero resigned
:52:31. > :52:32.from the Shadow Cabinet, closely followed by
:52:33. > :52:34.Lilian Greenwood, then Vernon Coaker stood down,
:52:35. > :52:39.before Toby Perkins resigned the next day.
:52:40. > :52:42.Well, good morning, everybody, thank you very much
:52:43. > :52:49.In the real Cabinet, a case of unhappy families and a loss
:52:50. > :52:53.New premier Theresa May discarded Nicky Morgan as Education Secretary,
:52:54. > :52:56.Baroness Stowell of Beeston stepped down as Leader of
:52:57. > :53:01.Patrick McLoughlin moved from Transport Secretary to chairman
:53:02. > :53:06.And Anna Soubry resigned from her role as Business Minister
:53:07. > :53:08.and became a standard bearer for those campaigning
:53:09. > :53:16.Anna Soubry is the voice of reason for the Remain campaign.
:53:17. > :53:19.The politician who Theresa May was happy to get rid
:53:20. > :53:25.Jon Ashworth stayed in the Shadow Cabinet
:53:26. > :53:27.as Shadow Health Secretary but he lost his place
:53:28. > :53:33.And Keith Vaz lost the prestigious chair of the Home Affairs Committee
:53:34. > :53:37.Political predictions, eh, who would make them
:53:38. > :53:46.If Brexit fails, and there is a civil war in the Tory Party,
:53:47. > :53:51.I could see Anna Soubry standing against Theresa May.
:53:52. > :53:55.The one thing that Margaret Thatcher and the Tories never gets...
:53:56. > :53:58.What we could get in 2017 is a Labour Party splitting.
:53:59. > :54:01.Remember how the experts scoffed when a man in his 60s
:54:02. > :54:06.Well, we all know what happened to Leicester City in 2016.
:54:07. > :54:09.Jeremy Corbyn's test in the world of politics will come in May's
:54:10. > :54:21.They could be a real game-changer in 2017.
:54:22. > :54:29.Let us have a quick look at your own personal memorable moments of the
:54:30. > :54:34.year. Andrew, this is you supporting Andrea Leadsom for leader of your
:54:35. > :54:37.party. John Mann, this issue berating Ken Livingstone for his
:54:38. > :54:43.comments on Hitler. Quite a memorable year, Mark I am sure you
:54:44. > :54:47.will both agree. The theme that emerges is that loss
:54:48. > :54:54.of influence, that loss of Cabinet members around the table, is that
:54:55. > :54:57.quite worrying, Andrew? Not really, you cannot speak out necessarily
:54:58. > :55:03.about issues that may be the particular concern to the region. I
:55:04. > :55:08.do not think either myself or John have been shrinking violets from the
:55:09. > :55:13.backbenches. But we need as many of you to do that on our behalf. But we
:55:14. > :55:17.have more people from the backbenchers speaking out on behalf
:55:18. > :55:20.of the East Midlands. Or that the referendum come from? It came from
:55:21. > :55:24.the backbenches. Has there been a lot of influence with the loss of
:55:25. > :55:28.these Cabinet members? No, politicians come and go, that is
:55:29. > :55:32.always the case. The public do not really give a dam. There are as many
:55:33. > :55:38.MPs as they were in the East Midlands, but it is the arguments,
:55:39. > :55:42.can they win the big arguments? That is what next year will bring. Who is
:55:43. > :55:48.speaking up for us then at the table from your party, apart from
:55:49. > :55:51.yourself? On what issue? When it comes to Bassetlaw Hospital, for
:55:52. > :55:56.example, I can assure you that when they try and cut that back like they
:55:57. > :55:59.have done the Grantham and Newark hospital, I will be there because
:56:00. > :56:05.that is my job with my constituents. That is how you have influence. The
:56:06. > :56:12.big issues, there are lots of big issues facing us. Not just the
:56:13. > :56:15.agenda is that the Government brings into Parliament, minor stuff, I am
:56:16. > :56:20.not saying it is not stuff that should be debated and laws passed,
:56:21. > :56:23.but it is my lust for a lot of it, the big debates and big arguments,
:56:24. > :56:26.we are in The Thick Of It and that is what people should expect of
:56:27. > :56:36.their MPs. We have got as much influence today as they had one year
:56:37. > :56:40.ago. What about Brexit, Andrew Bridgen,
:56:41. > :56:45.that will help us specifically here in the East Midlands? We are trying
:56:46. > :56:49.to talk up the economy. We have the highest levels of economic growth
:56:50. > :56:56.outside of London. Leicestershire has the highest in Leicestershire.
:56:57. > :57:02.the rail free interchange. They the rail free interchange. They
:57:03. > :57:06.start constructing that next month. 7000 more jobs, I have to make sure
:57:07. > :57:10.that we have the connectivity to the rail infrastructure so that
:57:11. > :57:14.unemployed people in Leicester, Derby at Nottingham can come and
:57:15. > :57:18.take the 7000 jobs because I have only got 455 people employed in my
:57:19. > :57:24.constituency. We'll Brexit work in Bassetlaw? It will work but what we
:57:25. > :57:28.need to do is look at the benefits. I expect the government to get its
:57:29. > :57:32.format through to guarantee those employment rights such as paid
:57:33. > :57:36.holidays that came from Europe, we should instil them into British law,
:57:37. > :57:40.I predict we will do that next year. How long will that take because this
:57:41. > :57:44.week we are hearing it could take ten years just to sort out the
:57:45. > :57:49.deals? I predict that will happen and be concluded next year. The laws
:57:50. > :57:54.need to be changed in this country and they will be done in a matter of
:57:55. > :57:57.months and not years. There is a lot of nonsense talk and that is people
:57:58. > :58:01.who are trying to rerun the referendum campaign. I want to go
:58:02. > :58:05.year with Brexit, let us get rid of year with Brexit, let us get rid of
:58:06. > :58:08.zero-hour contracts that have zero-hour contracts that have
:58:09. > :58:10.plagued areas like mine that the plagued areas like mine that the
:58:11. > :58:15.European enshrined in law in this country. Here is a real opportunity
:58:16. > :58:20.to allow people to when they go to work on a Monday morning, not to
:58:21. > :58:26.have to know that they do not know how much they will earn, how many
:58:27. > :58:30.hours they are working... Let us get some decent standards back in this
:58:31. > :58:36.country, the opportunities are there. We are escaping from the EU
:58:37. > :58:39.and the big fear from the EU ruling elite is that they will be a lot of
:58:40. > :58:42.countries that want to follow us down the tunnel. There is a big
:58:43. > :58:47.danger from the EU in these negotiations... Let us face it, as
:58:48. > :58:51.they do not want to negotiate, we cannot do that. However long
:58:52. > :58:56.timescale we set, it will never be long enough. When the German Carter
:58:57. > :59:00.and the French wine producer and the Spanish waiter realise that the EU
:59:01. > :59:05.elites are not acting in their interest, I think the EU could have
:59:06. > :59:08.big problems. What about HS2, that is another big issue going into
:59:09. > :59:17.2017, have you softened your position on that at all? No, I think
:59:18. > :59:20.that with things brought in by George Osborne, I think that HS2
:59:21. > :59:25.should have been in the bin with those. There is no good route, we
:59:26. > :59:30.have a new route through a phase two. That says ?900 million but
:59:31. > :59:36.which is the problem elsewhere and nobody wants it. If a Jez Toogood
:59:37. > :59:39.for you in Bassetlaw? If the money is shifted to the east Coast Main
:59:40. > :59:42.Line, get rid of the level crossings, I am eating Network Rail
:59:43. > :59:48.in January to get that of the eight level crossings in Bassetlaw which
:59:49. > :59:52.prevent -- present a safety risk and slowdown trains. We could properly
:59:53. > :59:56.electrify that line all the way through and do up the stations, more
:59:57. > :00:01.trains on it, that is what I would spend the money on. Perhaps we can
:00:02. > :00:07.priorities in the New Year, you have priorities in the New Year, you have
:00:08. > :00:12.mentioned the NHS. Absolutely, above everything else is to save Bassetlaw
:00:13. > :00:16.hospital. Trying to stop the children's ward from being 24 hours,
:00:17. > :00:20.trying to get rid of the accident and immense unit, the, centre, we
:00:21. > :00:26.will not be prepared to go the way that Newark did. The way that
:00:27. > :00:30.Grantham is going as well... People are having to fight to keep their
:00:31. > :00:34.hospital alive. That is absolutely fundamental, that is my number one
:00:35. > :00:38.priority. Any government minister who wants to try and mess around
:00:39. > :00:42.with my hospital, you are dealing with me and 100,000 of my
:00:43. > :00:44.constituents. You will be fighting that out over the Cabinet table, I
:00:45. > :00:46.am sure. Time now for a round-up of some
:00:47. > :00:49.of the other political stories 500 people have joined
:00:50. > :00:54.a campaign fighting plans for private security patrols
:00:55. > :00:56.in a Nottinghamshire village. Syston Parish Council says police
:00:57. > :00:58.cuts means that the village The new group says that
:00:59. > :01:02.crime is not a problem. In the last week, members have
:01:03. > :01:04.started a youth disco Some derby schools will close over
:01:05. > :01:13.the next two days because of strike They are opposing changes to pay
:01:14. > :01:16.and working conditions. Grantham MP Nick Boles
:01:17. > :01:19.made his voice heard in the Commons He texted his colleague
:01:20. > :01:22.Robert Jenrick over his campaign to restore 24-hour emergency
:01:23. > :01:27.services in Grantham. So, would my right honourable
:01:28. > :01:31.friend, the Prime Minister, receive the petition he has
:01:32. > :01:34.organised, ensure that the passionate views
:01:35. > :01:37.of his constituents are heard? The Prime Minister said
:01:38. > :01:39.the Government was listening. Nottingham City Council has launched
:01:40. > :01:41.the country's first all-electric park-and-ride bus service to improve
:01:42. > :01:44.air quality in the city, which is That's the Sunday Politics
:01:45. > :01:56.in the East Midlands. Thanks to Andrew Bridgen and John
:01:57. > :01:59.Mann for joining us in the studio. Just time to wish you a very
:02:00. > :02:01.Merry Christmas from Will Article 50 be triggered
:02:02. > :02:20.by the end of March, will President Trump start work
:02:21. > :02:23.on his wall and will Front National's Marine Le Pen
:02:24. > :02:49.provide the next electoral shock? 2016, the Brexit for Britain and
:02:50. > :02:50.Trump for the rest of the world. Let's look back and see what one of
:02:51. > :02:55.you said about Brexit. If Mr Cameron loses the referendum
:02:56. > :02:57.and it is this year, will he be Prime Minister at the end
:02:58. > :03:00.of the year? I don't think he will lose
:03:01. > :03:13.the referendum, so I'm feeling It was clear if he did lose the
:03:14. > :03:17.referendum he would be out. I would like to say in retrospect I saw that
:03:18. > :03:23.coming on a long and I was just saying it to make good television!
:03:24. > :03:29.It is Christmas so I will be benign towards my panel! It is possible,
:03:30. > :03:34.Iain, that not much happens to Brexit in 2017, because we have a
:03:35. > :03:37.host of elections coming up in Europe, the French won in the spring
:03:38. > :03:42.and the German one in the autumn will be the most important. And
:03:43. > :03:45.until we know who the next French president is and what condition Mrs
:03:46. > :03:51.Merkel will be in, not much will happen? I think that is the
:03:52. > :03:56.likeliest outcome. Short of some constitutional crisis involving the
:03:57. > :04:02.Lords relating to Brexit, it is pretty clear it is difficult to
:04:03. > :04:07.properly begin the negotiations until it becomes clear who Britain
:04:08. > :04:11.is negotiating with. It will come down to the result of the German
:04:12. > :04:16.election. Germany is the biggest contributor and if they keep power
:04:17. > :04:19.in what is left of the European Union, will drive the negotiation
:04:20. > :04:27.and we will have to see if it will be Merkel. So this vacuum that has
:04:28. > :04:30.been seen and has been filled by people less than friendly to the
:04:31. > :04:34.government, even when we know Article 50 has been triggered and
:04:35. > :04:38.even if there is some sort of white paper to give us a better idea of
:04:39. > :04:45.the broad strategic outlines of what they mean by Brexit, the phoney war
:04:46. > :04:51.could continue? Iain is right. 2017 is going to be a remarkably dull
:04:52. > :04:57.year for Brexit as opposed to 2016. We will have the article and a plan.
:04:58. > :05:03.The plan will say I would like the moon on a stick please. The EU will
:05:04. > :05:09.say you can have a tiny bit of moon and a tiny bit of stick and there
:05:10. > :05:13.will be an impasse. That will go on until one minute to midnight 2018
:05:14. > :05:19.which is when the EU will act. There is one thing in the Foreign Office
:05:20. > :05:23.which is more important, as David Davis Department told me, they know
:05:24. > :05:27.there is nothing they can do until the French and Germans have their
:05:28. > :05:31.elections and they know the lie of the land, but the people who will be
:05:32. > :05:36.more helpful to us are in Eastern Europe and in Scandinavia, the
:05:37. > :05:40.Nordic countries. We can do quite a lot of schmoozing to try and get
:05:41. > :05:44.them broadly on side this year? It is very difficult because one of the
:05:45. > :05:48.things they care most about in Eastern Europe is the ability for
:05:49. > :05:54.Eastern European stew come and work in the UK. That is key to the
:05:55. > :05:58.economic prospects. But what they care most about is that those
:05:59. > :06:03.already here should not be under any pressure to leave. There is no
:06:04. > :06:08.guarantee of that. That is what Mrs May wants. There are a lot of things
:06:09. > :06:13.Mrs May wants and the story of 2017 will be about what she gets. How
:06:14. > :06:18.much have we got to give people? It is not what we want, but what we are
:06:19. > :06:23.willing to give. The interesting thing is you can divide this out
:06:24. > :06:27.into two. There is a question of the European Union and our relationship
:06:28. > :06:36.with it but there is also the trick the polls did to London -- there is
:06:37. > :06:40.also the polls. There is question beyond the Western European
:06:41. > :06:46.security, that is about Nato and intelligence and security, and the
:06:47. > :06:49.rising Russian threat. That does not mean the Polish people will persuade
:06:50. > :06:54.everyone else to give us a lovely deal on the EU, but the dynamic is
:06:55. > :06:59.bigger than just a chat about Brexit. You cannot threaten a
:07:00. > :07:03.punishment beating for us if we are putting our soldiers on the line on
:07:04. > :07:06.the eastern borders of Europe. I think that's where Donald Trump
:07:07. > :07:12.changes the calculation because his attitude towards Russia is very
:07:13. > :07:20.different to Barack Obama's. It is indeed. Mentioning Russia, Brexit
:07:21. > :07:24.was a global story but nothing can match and American election and even
:07:25. > :07:27.one which gives Donald Trump as well. Let's have a look at what this
:07:28. > :07:30.panel was saying about Donald Trump. Will Donald Trump win the Republican
:07:31. > :07:44.nomination next year. So, not only did you think he would
:07:45. > :07:47.not be president, you did not think he would win the Republican
:07:48. > :07:52.nomination. We were not alone in that. And they're right put forward
:07:53. > :07:58.a motion to abolish punditry here now because clearly we are
:07:59. > :08:03.pointless! There is enough unemployment in the world already!
:08:04. > :08:07.We are moving into huge and charted territory with Donald Trump as
:08:08. > :08:14.president. It is incredibly unpredictable. But what has not been
:08:15. > :08:21.noticed enough is the Keynesian won. Trump is a Keynesian. He wants
:08:22. > :08:27.massive infrastructure spending and massive tax cuts. The big story next
:08:28. > :08:32.year will be the massive reflation of the American economy and indeed
:08:33. > :08:37.the US Federal reserve has already reacted to that by putting up
:08:38. > :08:42.interest rates. That is why he has a big fight with the rest of the
:08:43. > :08:46.Republican Party. He is nominally a Republican but they are not
:08:47. > :08:52.Keynesian. They are when it comes to tax cuts. They are when it hits the
:08:53. > :08:56.rich to benefit the poor. The big thing is whether the infrastructure
:08:57. > :09:01.projects land him in crony trouble. The transparency around who gets
:09:02. > :09:05.those will be extremely difficult. Most of the infrastructure spending
:09:06. > :09:10.he thinks can be done by the private sector and not the federal
:09:11. > :09:16.government. His tax cuts overlap the Republican house tax cuts speaker
:09:17. > :09:21.Ryan to give not all, but a fair chunk of what he wants. If the
:09:22. > :09:25.American economy is going to reflate next year, interest rates will rise
:09:26. > :09:32.in America, that will strengthen the dollar and it will mean that Europe
:09:33. > :09:36.will be, it will find it more difficult to finance its sovereign
:09:37. > :09:41.debt because you will get more money by investing in American sovereign
:09:42. > :09:46.debt. That is a good point because the dynamics will shift. If that
:09:47. > :09:53.happens, Trump will be pretty popular in the US. To begin with. To
:09:54. > :09:56.begin with. It is energy self-sufficient and if you can pull
:09:57. > :10:02.off the biggest trick in American politics which is somehow to via
:10:03. > :10:07.corporation tax cuts to allow the reassuring of wealth, because it is
:10:08. > :10:11.too expensive for American business to take back into the US and
:10:12. > :10:15.reinvest, if you combine all of those things together, you will end
:10:16. > :10:22.up with a boom on a scale you have not seen. It will be Reagan on
:10:23. > :10:26.steroids? What could possibly go wrong? In the short term for
:10:27. > :10:31.Britain, it is probably not bad news. Our biggest market for exports
:10:32. > :10:36.as a country is the United States. Our biggest market for foreign
:10:37. > :10:40.direct investment is the United States and the same is true vice
:10:41. > :10:43.versa for America in Britain. Given the pound is now competitive and
:10:44. > :10:50.likely the dollar will get stronger, it could well give a boost to the
:10:51. > :10:53.British economy? Could do bit you have to be slightly cautious about
:10:54. > :10:59.the warm language we are getting which is great news out of President
:11:00. > :11:03.Trump's future cabinet on doing a trade deal early, we are net
:11:04. > :11:06.exporters to the US. We benefit far more from trading with US than they
:11:07. > :11:12.do with us. I think we have to come up with something to offer the US
:11:13. > :11:18.for them to jump into bed with us. I think it is called two new aircraft
:11:19. > :11:26.carriers and modernising the fleet. Bring it on. I will raise caution,
:11:27. > :11:31.people in declining industries in some places in America, the rust
:11:32. > :11:35.belt who have faced big profound structural challenges and those are
:11:36. > :11:40.much harder to reverse. They face real problems now because the dollar
:11:41. > :11:46.is so strong. Their ability to export has taken a huge hit out of
:11:47. > :11:49.Ohio, Michigan and Illinois. And the Mexican imports into America is now
:11:50. > :11:56.dirt cheap so that is a major problem. Next year we have elections
:11:57. > :12:06.in Austria, France, the Netherlands, Germany, probably Italy. Which
:12:07. > :12:10.outcome will be the most dramatic for Brexit? If Merkel lost it would
:12:11. > :12:20.be a huge surprise. That is unlikely. And if it was not Filon in
:12:21. > :12:25.France that would be unlikely. The consensus it it will be Francois
:12:26. > :12:35.Filon against Marine Le Pen and it will be uniting around the far right
:12:36. > :12:42.candidate. In 2002, that is what happened. Filon is a Thatcherite.
:12:43. > :12:50.Marine Le Pen's politics -- economics are hard left. Francois
:12:51. > :12:54.Filon is as much a cert to win as Hillary Clinton was this time last
:12:55. > :13:03.year. If he is competing against concerns about rising globalisation
:13:04. > :13:08.and his pitch is Thatcherite, it is a bold, brave strategy in the
:13:09. > :13:15.context so we will see. It will keep us busy next year, Tom? Almost as
:13:16. > :13:19.busy as this year but not quite. This year was a record year. I am up
:13:20. > :13:22.in my hours! That's all for today,
:13:23. > :13:24.thanks to all my guests. The Daily Politics will be back
:13:25. > :13:27.on BBC Two at noon tomorrow. I'll be back here
:13:28. > :13:29.on the 15th January. Remember, if it's Sunday,
:13:30. > :13:32.it's the Sunday Politics. The most a writer
:13:33. > :14:13.can hope from a reader West Side Story took choreography
:14:14. > :14:30.in a radical new direction. The dance was woven
:14:31. > :14:35.into the storyline,