:00:33. > :00:37.It's Sunday morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:38. > :00:41.Theresa May pledged to help people who are "just about managing",
:00:42. > :00:43.and this week her government will announce new measures to boost
:00:44. > :00:46.the number of affordable homes and improve conditions for renters.
:00:47. > :00:57.After a US court suspends Donald Trump's travel ban and rules
:00:58. > :01:01.it could be unconstitutional, one of the President's inner circle
:01:02. > :01:04.tells me there is no "chaos", and that Donald Trump's White House
:01:05. > :01:07.is making good on his campaign promises.
:01:08. > :01:10.As the Government gets into gear for two years
:01:11. > :01:13.of Brexit negotiations, we report on the haggling to come
:01:14. > :01:15.over the UK's Brexit bill for leaving the European Union -
:01:16. > :01:23.and the costs and savings once we've left.
:01:24. > :01:41.And with me, as always, a trio of top political
:01:42. > :01:43.journalists - Helen Lewis, Tom Newton Dunn
:01:44. > :01:47.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme,
:01:48. > :01:53.So, more anguish to come this week for the Labour party as the House
:01:54. > :01:56.of Commons continues to debate the bill which paves the way
:01:57. > :02:01.Last week, Labour split over the Article 50 bill,
:02:02. > :02:04.with a fifth of Labour MPs defying Jeremy Corbyn to vote against.
:02:05. > :02:10.Five shadow ministers resigned, and it's expected Mr Corbyn
:02:11. > :02:13.will have to sack more frontbenchers once the bill is voted
:02:14. > :02:17.Add to that the fact that the Labour Leader's close ally
:02:18. > :02:20.Diane Abbot failed to turn up for the initial vote -
:02:21. > :02:22.blaming illness - and things don't look too rosy
:02:23. > :02:25.The Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry was asked
:02:26. > :02:29.about the situation earlier on the Andrew Marr show.
:02:30. > :02:33.The Labour Party is a national party and we represent the nation,
:02:34. > :02:37.and the nation is divided on this, and it is very difficult.
:02:38. > :02:42.Many MPs representing majority Remain constituencies have this very
:02:43. > :02:44.difficult balancing act between - do I represent my constituency,
:02:45. > :02:48.Labour, as a national party, have a clear view.
:02:49. > :02:56.We fought to stay in Europe, but the public have spoken,
:02:57. > :03:01.But the important thing now is not to give Theresa May a blank check,
:03:02. > :03:07.we have to make sure we get the right deal for the country.
:03:08. > :03:15.That was Emily Thornberry. Helen, is this like a form of Chinese water
:03:16. > :03:19.torture for the Labour Party? And for journalists, to! We are in a
:03:20. > :03:22.situation where no one really thinks it's working. A lot of authority has
:03:23. > :03:27.drained away from Jeremy Corbyn but no one can do anything about it.
:03:28. > :03:31.What we saw from the leadership contest is on the idea of a Blairite
:03:32. > :03:35.plot to get rid of him. You are essentially stuck in stasis. The
:03:36. > :03:41.only person that can remove Jeremy Corbyn is God or Jeremy Corbyn.
:03:42. > :03:45.Authority may have moved from Mr Corbyn but it's not going anywhere
:03:46. > :03:51.else, there's not an alternative centre of authority? Not quite, but
:03:52. > :03:56.Clive Lewis is name emerging, the Shadow Business Secretary. A lot of
:03:57. > :03:59.the Labour left, people like Paul Mason, really like him and would
:04:00. > :04:04.like to see him in Corbyn. I think that's why Jeremy Corbyn do
:04:05. > :04:09.something extraordinary next week and abstain from Article 50, the
:04:10. > :04:16.main bill itself, to keep his Shadow Cabinet together. That clip on
:04:17. > :04:20.Andrew Marr, point blank refusing to say if Labour will vote for Article
:04:21. > :04:25.50. The only way Jeremy Corbyn can hold this mess together now is to
:04:26. > :04:29.abstain, which would be catastrophic across Brexit constituencies in the
:04:30. > :04:36.North. The problem with abstention is everyone will say on the issue of
:04:37. > :04:40.our time, the official opposition hasn't got coherent or considered
:04:41. > :04:44.policy? I love the way Emily Thornberry said the country is
:04:45. > :04:47.divided and we represent the country, in other words we are
:04:48. > :04:50.divided at the party as well. The other thing that was a crucial
:04:51. > :04:54.moment this week is the debate over whether there should be a so-called
:04:55. > :04:59.meaningful vote by MPs on the deal that Theresa May gets. That is a
:05:00. > :05:05.point of real danger for Brexit supporters. It may well be there is
:05:06. > :05:09.a coalition of Labour and SNP and Remain MPs, Tory MPs, who vote for
:05:10. > :05:13.that so-called meaningful vote that could undermine Theresa May's
:05:14. > :05:18.negotiation. So Theresa May could have had troubles as well, not plain
:05:19. > :05:24.sailing for her? There is no point, apart from lonely Ken Clarke voting
:05:25. > :05:26.against Article 50, no point in Tory remainders rebelling. It would have
:05:27. > :05:31.been a token gesture with no support. But there might be
:05:32. > :05:35.meaningful amendments. One might be on the status of EU nationals... The
:05:36. > :05:43.government could lose that. There might be a majority for some of
:05:44. > :05:46.those amendments. The ins and outs of the Labour Party, it fascinates
:05:47. > :05:48.the Labour Party and journalists. I suspect the country has just moved
:05:49. > :05:53.on and doesn't care. You are probably quite right. To be honest I
:05:54. > :05:58.struggled to get Labour split stories in my paper any more, the
:05:59. > :06:03.bar is so high to make it news. Where it does matter is now not
:06:04. > :06:08.everyone will pay huge amounts to the -- of attention to the vote on
:06:09. > :06:13.Wednesday. But come the general election in 2020, maybe a little
:06:14. > :06:17.earlier, every Tory leaflet and every labour constituency will say
:06:18. > :06:20.this guy, this goal, they refuse to vote for Brexit, do you want them in
:06:21. > :06:25.power? That is going to be really hard for them. The story next week
:06:26. > :06:30.may be Tory splits rather than just Labour ones, we will see.
:06:31. > :06:33.Theresa May has made a big deal out of her commitment to help people
:06:34. > :06:36.on middle incomes who are "just about managing", and early this week
:06:37. > :06:39.we should get a good sense of what that means in practice -
:06:40. > :06:42.when plans to bring down the cost of housing and protect renters
:06:43. > :06:43.are published in the Government's new white paper.
:06:44. > :06:46.Theresa May has promised she'll kick off Brexit negotiations with the EU
:06:47. > :06:49.by the end of March, and after months of shadow-boxing
:06:50. > :06:53.Ellie Price reports on the battle to come over the UK's Brexit bill,
:06:54. > :06:55.and the likely costs and savings once we've left.
:06:56. > :06:57.It was the figure that defined the EU referendum campaign.
:06:58. > :07:03.It was also a figure that was fiercely disputed, but the promise -
:07:04. > :07:07.vote leave and Britain won't have to pay into the EU are any more.
:07:08. > :07:09.So, is that what's going to happen now?
:07:10. > :07:12.The trouble with buses is you tend to have to wait for them
:07:13. > :07:14.and when Theresa May triggers Article 50, the clock starts
:07:15. > :07:19.She needs something quicker, something more sporty.
:07:20. > :07:25.According to the most recent Treasury figures,
:07:26. > :07:27.Britain's gross contribution to the EU, after the rebate
:07:28. > :07:30.is taken into account, is about ?14 billion a year.
:07:31. > :07:36.There are some complicating factors that means it can go up
:07:37. > :07:39.or down year on year, but that's roughly how much the UK
:07:40. > :07:41.will no longer sending to Brussels post-Brexit.
:07:42. > :07:44.But, there are other payments that Britain will have to shell out for.
:07:45. > :07:47.First and foremost, the so-called divorce settlement.
:07:48. > :07:53.It is being said, and openly by Commissioner Barnier
:07:54. > :07:57.and others in the Commission, that the total financial liability
:07:58. > :07:59.as they see it might be in the order of 40-60 billion
:08:00. > :08:05.The BBC understands the figure EU negotiators are likely
:08:06. > :08:10.to settle on is far lower, around 34 billion euros,
:08:11. > :08:12.but what does the money they are going to argue
:08:13. > :08:18.Well, that's how much Britain owes for stuff in the EU budget that's
:08:19. > :08:21.already signed up for until 2020, one year after we are
:08:22. > :08:26.Historically, Britain pays 12% in contributions,
:08:27. > :08:29.so the cost to the UK is likely to be between ten
:08:30. > :08:37.Then they will look at the 200-250 billion euros of underfunded
:08:38. > :08:38.spending commitments, the so-called RAL.
:08:39. > :08:46.Britain could also be liable for around 5-7 billion euros
:08:47. > :08:51.for its share in the pensions bill for EU staff, that's again
:08:52. > :08:53.12% of an overall bill of 50-60 billion.
:08:54. > :08:56.Finally there's a share of our assets held by the EU.
:08:57. > :09:00.They include things like this building, the European Commission
:09:01. > :09:08.Britain could argue it deserves a share back of around 18 billion
:09:09. > :09:11.euros from a portfolio that's said to be worth 153 billion euros.
:09:12. > :09:14.So, lots for the two sides to discuss in two years of talks.
:09:15. > :09:16.They have a great opportunity with the Article 50 talks
:09:17. > :09:21.because actually they can hold us to ransom.
:09:22. > :09:24.They can say, "You figure out money, we will talk about your trade.
:09:25. > :09:27.But until you've figured out the money, we won't," so I think
:09:28. > :09:30.a lot of European states think they are in a very strong
:09:31. > :09:32.negotiating position at the moment and they intend to make
:09:33. > :09:38.The principle is clear, the days of Britain making vast
:09:39. > :09:43.contributions to the European Union every year will end.
:09:44. > :09:47.Theresa May has already indicated that she would want to sign back up
:09:48. > :09:53.to a number of EU agencies on a program-by-program basis.
:09:54. > :09:55.The Europol for example, that's the European crime
:09:56. > :10:00.agency, or Erasmus Plus, which wants student exchanges.
:10:01. > :10:03.If everything stays the same as it is now, it would cost the UK
:10:04. > :10:06.675 million euros a year, based on analysis by
:10:07. > :10:14.But there are likely to be agencies we don't choose to participate in.
:10:15. > :10:24.If we only opted back to those dealing with security,
:10:25. > :10:25.trade, universities and, say, climate change,
:10:26. > :10:29.it could come with a price tag of 370 million euros per year.
:10:30. > :10:31.Of course that's if our European neighbours allow us.
:10:32. > :10:33.I wonder if they're going to let me in!
:10:34. > :10:36.There will also be a cost to creating a new system to resolve
:10:37. > :10:39.trade disputes with other nations once we are no longer part
:10:40. > :10:44.Take the EFTA Court which rules on disputes
:10:45. > :10:46.between the EU and Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein.
:10:47. > :10:52.That costs 4 million euros to run each year,
:10:53. > :10:54.though in the Brexit White Paper published this week,
:10:55. > :10:56.the Government said it will not be constrained by precedent
:10:57. > :11:01.Finally, would the EU get behind the idea of Britain making some
:11:02. > :11:08.contribution for some preferential access to its market?
:11:09. > :11:10.The sort of thing that Theresa May seems to be hinting
:11:11. > :11:12.at are sectoral arrangements, some kind of partial membership
:11:13. > :11:20.Switzerland, which has a far less wide-ranging deal than Norway,
:11:21. > :11:24.pays about 320 million a year for what it gets into the EU budget,
:11:25. > :11:26.but it's not exactly the Swiss deal that we're after.
:11:27. > :11:29.The EU institutions hate the Swiss deal because it is codified
:11:30. > :11:31.in a huge number of treaties that are messy, complicated
:11:32. > :11:33.and cumbersome, and they really don't want to replicate
:11:34. > :11:40.Theresa May has been at pains to insist she's in the driving seat
:11:41. > :11:42.when it comes to these negotiations, and that she's
:11:43. > :11:52.But with so much money up for discussion, it may not be such
:11:53. > :12:09.Sadly she didn't get to keep the car!
:12:10. > :12:12.And I've been joined to discuss the Brexit balance sheet
:12:13. > :12:14.by the director of the Centre for European Reform, Charles Grant,
:12:15. > :12:17.and by Henry Newman who runs the think tank Open Europe.
:12:18. > :12:25.Henry Newman, these figures that are being thrown about in Brussels at
:12:26. > :12:29.the moment, and exit bill of 40-60,000,000,000. What do you make
:12:30. > :12:31.of them? I think it is an opening gambit from the institutions and we
:12:32. > :12:38.should take them seriously. We listened to Mr Rogers, the former
:12:39. > :12:41.ambassador to Brussels in the House of Commons last week, speaking about
:12:42. > :12:46.the sort of positions the EU is likely to take in the negotiation. I
:12:47. > :12:50.personally think the Prime Minister should be more concerned about
:12:51. > :12:52.getting the right sort of trade arrangements, subsequent to our
:12:53. > :12:57.departure, than worrying about the exact detail of the divorce
:12:58. > :13:01.settlement and the Bill. They might not let them go on to trade until
:13:02. > :13:06.they resolve this matter. Where does the Brexit bill, the cost of exit,
:13:07. > :13:12.if there is to be one, in terms of a sum of money, where does that come
:13:13. > :13:15.in the negotiations, upfront or at the end? The European Commission has
:13:16. > :13:20.a firm line on this. You have to talk about the Brexit bill and the
:13:21. > :13:22.divorce settlement before you talk about the future relationship.
:13:23. > :13:27.Therefore they are saying if you don't sign up for 60 billion or
:13:28. > :13:30.thereabouts, we won't talk about the future. Other member states take a
:13:31. > :13:33.softer line than that and think you probably have to talk about the
:13:34. > :13:39.divorce settlement and Brexit bill as the same -- at the same time as
:13:40. > :13:43.the economic situation. If you can do both at the same time, the
:13:44. > :13:48.atmosphere may be better natured. You have spoken to people in
:13:49. > :13:55.Brussels and are part of a think tank, how Revista gives the figure
:13:56. > :13:59.or is it an opening gambit? Most member states and EU institutions
:14:00. > :14:01.believe they think it is the true figure but when the negotiations
:14:02. > :14:04.start adding the number will come down. As long as the British are
:14:05. > :14:11.prepared to sign up to the principle of we owe you a bit of money, as the
:14:12. > :14:16.cheque, then people will compromise. What is the ballpark? You had a
:14:17. > :14:20.figure of 34 billion, that is news to me, nobody knows because
:14:21. > :14:25.negotiations haven't started but I think something lower than 60. Even
:14:26. > :14:30.60 would be politically toxic for a British government? I think Theresa
:14:31. > :14:33.May is in a strong position, she has united the Conservative Party. You
:14:34. > :14:38.could expect coming into this year all the Conservative divisions would
:14:39. > :14:45.be laid bare by Gina Miller. But she is leading a united party. Labour
:14:46. > :14:50.Party are divided... Coogee get away with paying 30 billion? We should
:14:51. > :14:53.give her the benefit of the doubt going into these negotiations, let
:14:54. > :14:57.her keep her cards close to her chest. The speech he gave a few
:14:58. > :15:00.weeks ago at Lancaster House, our judgment was she laid out as much
:15:01. > :15:05.detail as we could have expected at that point. I don't think it's
:15:06. > :15:09.helpful for us now to say, we shouldn't be introducing further red
:15:10. > :15:14.line. I want you to be helpful and find things out. I would suggest if
:15:15. > :15:18.there is a bill, let's say it's 30 billion, let's make it half of what
:15:19. > :15:22.the current claims coming out of Brussels. And of course it won't
:15:23. > :15:26.have to be paid in one year, I assume it's not one cheque but
:15:27. > :15:30.spread over. But we will wait a long time for that 350 million a week or
:15:31. > :15:36.what ever it was that was meant to come from Brussels to spend on the
:15:37. > :15:41.NHS. That's not going to happen for the next five, six or seven years.
:15:42. > :15:47.Everyone has been clear there will be a phased exit programme. The
:15:48. > :15:50.question of whether something is political possible for her in terms
:15:51. > :15:53.of the divorce settlement will depend on what she gets from the
:15:54. > :15:59.European Union in those negotiations. If she ends up
:16:00. > :16:03.settling for a bill of about 30 billion which I think would be
:16:04. > :16:08.politically... No matter how popular she is, politically very difficult
:16:09. > :16:13.for her, it does kill any idea there is a Brexit dividend for Britain.
:16:14. > :16:17.Some of the senior officials in London and Brussels are worried this
:16:18. > :16:21.issue could crash the talks because it may be possible for Theresa May
:16:22. > :16:26.to accept a Brexit bill of 30 billion and if there is no deal and
:16:27. > :16:33.will leave EU without a settlement, there is massive legal uncertainty.
:16:34. > :16:36.What contract law applies? Can our planes take off from Heathrow?
:16:37. > :16:42.Nobody knows what legal rights there are for an EU citizen living here
:16:43. > :16:48.and vice versa. If there is no deal at the end of two years, it is quite
:16:49. > :16:53.bad for the European economy, therefore they think they have all
:16:54. > :16:56.the cards to play and they think if it is mishandled domestically in
:16:57. > :17:02.Britain than we have a crash. But there will be competing interests in
:17:03. > :17:06.Europe, the Baltic states, Eastern Europe, maybe quite similar of the
:17:07. > :17:11.Nordic states, that in turn different from the French, Germans
:17:12. > :17:16.or Italians. How will Europe come to a common view on these things? At
:17:17. > :17:24.the moment they are quite united backing a strong line, except for
:17:25. > :17:30.the polls and Hungarians who are the bad boys of Europe and the Irish who
:17:31. > :17:34.will do anything to keep us happy. We should remember their priority is
:17:35. > :17:39.not economics, they are not thinking how can they maximise trade with the
:17:40. > :17:43.UK, they are under threat. The combination of Trump and Brexit
:17:44. > :17:50.scares them. They want to keep the institutions strong. They also want
:17:51. > :17:55.to keep Britain. That is the one strong card we have, contributing to
:17:56. > :17:59.security. We know we won't be members of the single market, that
:18:00. > :18:04.was in the White Paper. The situation of the customs union is
:18:05. > :18:10.more complicated I would suggest. Does that have cost? If we can be a
:18:11. > :18:16.little bit pregnant in the customs union, does that come with a price
:18:17. > :18:21.ticket? We have got some clarity on the customs union, the Prime
:18:22. > :18:25.Minister said we would not be part of the... We would be able to do our
:18:26. > :18:29.own trade deals outside the EU customs union, and also not be part
:18:30. > :18:33.of the common external tariff. She said she is willing to look at other
:18:34. > :18:37.options and we don't know what that will be so as a think tank we are
:18:38. > :18:40.looking at this over the next few weeks and coming up with
:18:41. > :18:43.recommendations for the Government and looking at how existing
:18:44. > :18:48.boundaries between the EU customs union and other states work in
:18:49. > :18:52.practice. For example between Switzerland and the EU border,
:18:53. > :18:57.Norway and Switzerland, and the UK and Canada. We will want is a
:18:58. > :19:04.country the freedom to do our own free trade deals, that seems to be
:19:05. > :19:09.quite high up there, and to change our external tariffs to the rest of
:19:10. > :19:14.the world. If that's the case, we do seem to be wanting our cake and
:19:15. > :19:18.eating it in the customs union. Talking to some people in London, it
:19:19. > :19:23.is quite clear we are leaving the essentials of the customs union, the
:19:24. > :19:28.tariff, so even if we can minimise controls at the border by having
:19:29. > :19:31.mutual recognition agreements, so we recognise each other's standards,
:19:32. > :19:36.but there will still have to be checks for things like rules of
:19:37. > :19:40.origin and tariffs if tariffs apply, which is a problem for the Irish
:19:41. > :19:43.because nobody has worked out how you can avoid having some sort of
:19:44. > :19:47.customs control on the border between Northern Ireland and the
:19:48. > :19:51.South once we are out of the customs union. I think it's important we
:19:52. > :19:57.don't look at this too much as one side has to win and one side has to
:19:58. > :20:01.lose scenario. We can find ways. My Broadview is what we get out of the
:20:02. > :20:04.negotiation will depend on politics more than economic reality. Economic
:20:05. > :20:21.reality is strong, there's a good case for a trade deal on the
:20:22. > :20:23.solution on the customs deal, but Britain will need to come up with a
:20:24. > :20:26.positive case for our relationship and keep making that case. If it
:20:27. > :20:29.turns out the Government thinks the bill is too high, that we can't
:20:30. > :20:32.really get the free trade deal done in time and it's left hanging in the
:20:33. > :20:35.wind, what are the chances, how I as things stand now that we end up
:20:36. > :20:39.crashing out? I'd say there's a 30% chance that we don't get the free
:20:40. > :20:45.trade agreement at the end of it that Mrs May is aiming for. The very
:20:46. > :20:49.hard crash is you don't even do an Article 50 divorce settlement from
:20:50. > :20:54.you go straight to World Trade Organisation rules. The less hard
:20:55. > :20:57.crash is doing the divorce settlement and transitional
:20:58. > :21:03.arrangements would require European Court of Justice arrangements. We
:21:04. > :21:04.will leave it there. Thank you, both.
:21:05. > :21:06.Donald Trump's flagship policy of extreme vetting of immigrants
:21:07. > :21:09.and a temporary travel ban for citizens of seven mainly-muslim
:21:10. > :21:11.countries was stopped in its tracks this weekend.
:21:12. > :21:14.On Friday a judge ruled the ban should be lifted and that it
:21:15. > :21:19.That prompted President Trump to fire off a series of tweets
:21:20. > :21:21.criticising what he says was a terrible decision
:21:22. > :21:24.by a so-called judge, as he ordered the State Department
:21:25. > :21:31.Now the federal appeals court has rejected his request to reinstate
:21:32. > :21:43.the ban until it hears the case in full.
:21:44. > :21:47.Well yesterday I spoke to Sebastian Gorka, Deputy Assistant
:21:48. > :21:51.I asked him if the confusion over the travel ban
:21:52. > :21:53.was a sign that the President's two-week-old administration
:21:54. > :22:06.There is no chaos, you really shouldn't believe the spin, the
:22:07. > :22:12.facts speak for themselves. 109 people on Saturday were mildly
:22:13. > :22:18.inconvenienced by having their entry into the United States delayed out
:22:19. > :22:27.of 325,000. So let's not get carried away with the left-wing media bias
:22:28. > :22:31.and spin. Hold on, 60,000 - 90,000 people with visas, their visas are
:22:32. > :22:35.no longer valid. That's another issue. You need to listen to what
:22:36. > :22:41.I'm saying. The people who entered on the day of the executive order
:22:42. > :22:48.being implemented worth 109 people out of 325. Whether people won't
:22:49. > :22:57.travelling to America were affected is another matter, so there is no
:22:58. > :23:02.chaos to comment on. Following Iran's latest missile tests,
:23:03. > :23:08.National Security adviser Flint said the US was "Putting Iran on notice",
:23:09. > :23:10.what does that mean? It means we have a new president and we are not
:23:11. > :23:17.going to facilitate the rise of one of the most dangerous nations in the
:23:18. > :23:25.world. We are jettisoning this naive and dangerous policy of the Obama
:23:26. > :23:28.Administration to try and make the Shi'ite dictatorial democracy some
:23:29. > :23:32.kind of counter balance to extremist Sunni groups in the region and that
:23:33. > :23:37.they cannot continue to behave in the way they have behaved for the
:23:38. > :23:43.last 30 years. It is a very simple message. So are there any
:23:44. > :23:49.multilateral alliances that Mr Trump would like to strengthen?
:23:50. > :23:52.Absolutely. If we are looking at the region, if you listen to what
:23:53. > :23:57.President Trump has said and specifically to also the speeches of
:23:58. > :24:02.general Flint, his national security adviser, we are incredibly vested in
:24:03. > :24:09.seeing our Sunni allies in the region come together in a real
:24:10. > :24:15.coalition. The so-called vaunted 66 nation coalition that was created
:24:16. > :24:19.under the Obama administration... There was no coalition. But we want
:24:20. > :24:27.to help our Sunni allies, especially the Egyptians, the Jordanians, come
:24:28. > :24:33.together in a real partnership to take the fight to ISIS and groups
:24:34. > :24:38.like Al-Qaeda. But there is not a formal multilateral alliance with
:24:39. > :24:43.these countries. Which of the existing, formal multilateral
:24:44. > :24:47.alliances does Mr Trump wants to strengthen? If you are specifically
:24:48. > :24:52.talking about Nato, it is clear that we are committed to Nato but we wish
:24:53. > :24:55.to see a more equitable burden sharing among the nations that are
:24:56. > :25:00.simply not spending enough on their own defence so the gentleman 's
:25:01. > :25:04.agreement of 2% of GDP has to be stuck to, unlike the, I think it's
:25:05. > :25:08.only Six Nations that reach the standard today out of almost 30. So
:25:09. > :25:20.he does want to strengthen Nato then? Absolutely, he believes Nato
:25:21. > :25:26.is the most successful military alliances. You mustn't believe the
:25:27. > :25:30.spin and hype. EU leaders now see the Trump administration as a threat
:25:31. > :25:36.up there with Russia, China, terrorism. What's your response to
:25:37. > :25:42.that? I have to laugh. The idea that the nation that came to the
:25:43. > :25:49.salvation of Europe twice in the 20th century hummer in World War I
:25:50. > :26:00.and World War II, was central to the defeat of the totalitarian... It is
:26:01. > :26:04.not even worth commenting on. Would it matter to the Trump
:26:05. > :26:07.administration if the European Union broke up? The United States is very
:26:08. > :26:15.interested in the best relations possible with all the nations of the
:26:16. > :26:20.EU am a whether the European union wishes to stay together or not is up
:26:21. > :26:26.to the nations of the European Union. I understand that but I was
:26:27. > :26:30.wondering what the US view would be. Until Mr Trump, EU foreign policy
:26:31. > :26:35.was quite consistent in wanting to see the EU survive, prosper and even
:26:36. > :26:39.become more integrated. Now that doesn't seem to be the case, so
:26:40. > :26:44.would it matter to the Trump administration if the EU broke up? I
:26:45. > :26:47.will say yet again, it is in the interests of the United States to
:26:48. > :26:51.have the best relations possible with our European allies, and
:26:52. > :26:56.whether that is in the formation of the EU or if the EU by itself
:26:57. > :27:00.suffers some kind of internal issues, that's up to the European
:27:01. > :27:05.nations and not something we will comment on. Listening to that
:27:06. > :27:10.answer, it would seem as if this particular president's preference is
:27:11. > :27:15.to deal with individual nation states rather than multilateral
:27:16. > :27:22.institutions. Is that fair? I don't think so. There's never been an
:27:23. > :27:26.unequivocal statement by that effect by the statement. Does he share the
:27:27. > :27:31.opinion of Stephen Bannon that the 21st century should see a return to
:27:32. > :27:37.nation states rather than growing existing multilateral ways? I think
:27:38. > :27:40.it is fair to say that we have problems with political elites that
:27:41. > :27:45.don't take the interests of the populations they represent into
:27:46. > :27:51.account. That's why Brexit happened. I think that's why Mr Trump became
:27:52. > :27:55.President Trump. This is the connected phenomena. You are
:27:56. > :27:59.obsessing about institutions, it is not about institutions, it's about
:28:00. > :28:04.the health of democracy and whether political elites do what is in the
:28:05. > :28:07.interests of the people they represent. Given the
:28:08. > :28:10.unpredictability of the new president, you never really know
:28:11. > :28:15.what he's going to do next, would it be wise for the British Prime
:28:16. > :28:22.Minister to hitch her wagon to his star? This is really churlish
:28:23. > :28:25.questioning. Come on, you don't know what he's going to do next, listen
:28:26. > :28:31.to what he says because he does what he's going to say. I know this may
:28:32. > :28:35.be shocking to some reporters, but look at his campaign promises, and
:28:36. > :28:41.the fact that in the last 15 days we have executed every single one that
:28:42. > :28:46.we could in the time permissible so there is nothing unpredictable about
:28:47. > :28:52.Donald Trump as president. OK then, if we do know what he's going to do
:28:53. > :28:56.next, what is he going to do next? Continue to make good on his
:28:57. > :29:02.election promises, to make America great again, to make the economy are
:29:03. > :29:07.flourishing economy, and most important of all from your
:29:08. > :29:11.perspective in the UK, to be the best friend possible to our friends
:29:12. > :29:17.and the worst enemy to our enemies. It is an old Marine Corps phrase and
:29:18. > :29:24.we tend to live by it. Thank you for your time, we will leave it there.
:29:25. > :29:31.Doctor Gorka, making it clear this administration won't spend political
:29:32. > :29:33.capital on trying to keep the European Union together, a watershed
:29:34. > :29:35.change in American foreign policy. Theresa May has made a big deal out
:29:36. > :29:39.of her commitment to help people on middle incomes who are "just
:29:40. > :29:41.about managing", and early this week we should get a good sense
:29:42. > :29:45.of what that means in practice - when plans to bring down the cost
:29:46. > :29:47.of housing and protect renters are published in the Government's
:29:48. > :29:49.new white paper. The paper is expected to introduce
:29:50. > :29:52.new rules on building Communities Secretary Sajid Javid
:29:53. > :29:58.has previously said politicians should not stand in the way
:29:59. > :30:00.of development, provided all options Also rumoured are new measures
:30:01. > :30:05.to speed up building the 1 million new homes the Government promised
:30:06. > :30:07.to build by 2020, including imposing five-year quotas
:30:08. > :30:11.on reluctant councils. Reports suggest there will be
:30:12. > :30:13.relaxation of building height restrictions,
:30:14. > :30:15.allowing home owners and developers to build to the height
:30:16. > :30:18.of the tallest building on the block without needing to seek
:30:19. > :30:24.planning permission. Other elements trialled include
:30:25. > :30:27.new measures to stop developers sitting on parcels of land
:30:28. > :30:29.without building homes, land banking, and moving railway
:30:30. > :30:32.station car parks Underground, The Government today said it
:30:33. > :30:40.will amend planning rules so more homes can be built specifically
:30:41. > :30:43.to be rented out through longer term tenancies, to provide more stability
:30:44. > :30:45.for young families, alongside its proposed ban
:30:46. > :30:52.on letting agent fees. And the Housing Minister,
:30:53. > :31:02.Gavin Barwell, joins me now. Welcome to the programme. Home
:31:03. > :31:05.ownership is now beyond the reach of most young people. You are now
:31:06. > :31:10.emphasising affordable homes for rent. Why have you given up on the
:31:11. > :31:13.Tory dream of a property owning democracy? We haven't given up on
:31:14. > :31:18.that. The decline on home ownership in this country started in 2004. So
:31:19. > :31:21.far we have stopped that decline, we haven't reversed it but we
:31:22. > :31:27.absolutely want to make sure that people who want to own and can do
:31:28. > :31:30.so. The Prime Minister was very clear a country that works for
:31:31. > :31:33.everyone. That means we have to have say something to say to those who
:31:34. > :31:38.want to rent as well as on. Home ownership of young people is 35%,
:31:39. > :31:42.used to be 60%. Are you telling me during the lifetime of this
:31:43. > :31:47.government that is going to rise? We want to reverse the decline. We have
:31:48. > :31:51.stabilised it. The decline started in 2004 under Labour. They weren't
:31:52. > :31:56.bothered about it. We have taken action and that has stop the
:31:57. > :32:00.decline... What about the rise? We have to make sure people work hard
:32:01. > :32:04.the right thing have the chance to own their home on home. We have
:32:05. > :32:08.helped people through help to buy, shared ownership, that is part of
:32:09. > :32:12.it, but we have to have something to say to those who want to rent. You
:32:13. > :32:18.say you want more rented homes so why did you introduce a 3%
:32:19. > :32:22.additional stamp duty levied to pay those investing in build to rent
:32:23. > :32:26.properties? That was basically to try and stop a lot of the
:32:27. > :32:29.speculation in the buy to let market. The Bank of England raised
:32:30. > :32:34.concerns about that. When you see the white paper, you will see there
:32:35. > :32:41.is a package of measures for Bill to rent, trying to get institutional
:32:42. > :32:45.investment for that, different to people going and buying a home on
:32:46. > :32:49.the private market and renting out. You are trying to get institutional
:32:50. > :32:52.money to comment, just as this government and subsequent ones
:32:53. > :32:55.before said it would get pension fund money to invest in
:32:56. > :33:00.infrastructure and it never happened. Why should this happen? Is
:33:01. > :33:03.already starting to happen. If you go around the country you can see
:33:04. > :33:07.some of these builder rent scheme is happening. There are changes in the
:33:08. > :33:18.White Paper... How much money from institutions is going into bill to
:33:19. > :33:21.rent modular hundreds of millions. I was at the stock exchange the other
:33:22. > :33:23.day celebrating the launch of one of our bombs designed to get this money
:33:24. > :33:26.on. There are schemes being... There is huge potential to expand it. We
:33:27. > :33:29.need more homes and we are too dependent on a small number of large
:33:30. > :33:36.developers. -- to launch one of our bonds. You talk about affordable
:33:37. > :33:42.renting, what is affordable? Defined as something that is at least 20%
:33:43. > :33:46.below the market price. It will vary around the country. Let me put it
:33:47. > :33:51.another way. The average couple renting now have to spend 50% of
:33:52. > :33:54.their income on rent. Is that affordable? That is exactly what
:33:55. > :33:57.we're trying to do something about. Whether you're trying to buy or
:33:58. > :34:01.rent, housing in this country has become less and less affordable
:34:02. > :34:05.because the 30-40 years governments haven't built in times. This white
:34:06. > :34:09.Paper is trying to do something about that. You have been in power
:34:10. > :34:17.six, almost seven years. That's right. Why are ownership of new
:34:18. > :34:20.homes to 24 year low? It was a low figure because it's a new five-year
:34:21. > :34:25.programme. That is not a great excuse. It's not an excuse at all.
:34:26. > :34:28.The way these things work, you have a five-year programme and in the
:34:29. > :34:31.last year you have a record number of delivery and when you start a new
:34:32. > :34:35.programme, a lower level. If you look at the average over six years,
:34:36. > :34:41.this government has built more affordable housing than the previous
:34:42. > :34:47.one. Stiletto 24 year loss, that is an embarrassment. Yes. We have the
:34:48. > :34:50.figures, last year was 32,000, the year before 60 6000. You get this
:34:51. > :34:56.cliff edge effect. It is embarrassing and we want to stop it
:34:57. > :35:00.happening in the future. You want to give tenants more secure and longer
:35:01. > :35:06.leases which rent rises are predictable in advance. Ed Miliband
:35:07. > :35:10.promoted three-year tenancies in the 2015 general election campaign and
:35:11. > :35:15.George Osborne said it was totally economically illiterate. What's
:35:16. > :35:20.changed? You are merging control of the rents people in charge, which
:35:21. > :35:24.we're not imposing. We want longer term tenancies. Most people have
:35:25. > :35:29.six-month tenancies... Within that there would be a control on how much
:35:30. > :35:33.the rent could go up? Right? It would be set for the period of the
:35:34. > :35:38.tenancies. That's what I just said, that's what Ed Miliband proposed. Ed
:35:39. > :35:43.Miliband proposed regulating it for the whole sector. One of the reasons
:35:44. > :35:47.institutional investment is so attractive, if you had a spare home
:35:48. > :35:51.and you want to rent out, you might need it any year, so you give it a
:35:52. > :35:56.short tenancy. If you have a block, they are interested in a long-term
:35:57. > :36:03.return and give families more security. You have set a target,
:36:04. > :36:06.your government, to build in the life of this parliament 1 million
:36:07. > :36:14.new homes in England by 2020. You're not going to make that? I think we
:36:15. > :36:17.are. If you look at 2015-16 we had 190,000 additional homes of this
:36:18. > :36:25.country. Just below the level we need to achieve. Over five...
:36:26. > :36:31.2015-16. You were probably looking at the new homes built. Talking
:36:32. > :36:34.about completions in England. That is not the best measure, with
:36:35. > :36:40.respect. You said you will complete 1 million homes by 2020 so what is
:36:41. > :36:44.wrong with it? We use a national statistic which looks at new homes
:36:45. > :36:47.built and conversions and changes of use minus demolitions. The total
:36:48. > :36:53.change of the housing stock over that year. On that basis I have the
:36:54. > :36:57.figures here. I have the figures. You looking I just completed. 1
:36:58. > :37:03.million new homes, the average rate of those built in the last three
:37:04. > :37:07.quarters was 30 6000. You have 14 more quarters to get to the 1
:37:08. > :37:11.million. You have to raise that to 50 6000. I put it to you, you won't
:37:12. > :37:16.do it. You're not looking at the full picture of new housing in this
:37:17. > :37:20.country. You're looking at brand-new homes and not including conversions
:37:21. > :37:25.or changes of use are not taking off, which we should, demolitions.
:37:26. > :37:31.If you look at the National statistic net additions, in 2015-16,
:37:32. > :37:36.100 and 90,000 new homes. We are behind schedule. -- 190,000. I am
:37:37. > :37:40.confident with the measures in the White Paper we can achieve that. It
:37:41. > :37:44.is not just about the national total, we need to build these homes
:37:45. > :37:50.are the right places. Will the green belt remain sacrosanct after the
:37:51. > :37:54.white paper? Not proposing to change the existing protections that there
:37:55. > :37:58.for green belts. What planning policy says is councils can remove
:37:59. > :38:01.land from green belts but only in exceptional circumstances and should
:38:02. > :38:07.look at at all the circumstances before doing that. No change? No. We
:38:08. > :38:13.have a manifesto commitment. You still think you will get 1 million
:38:14. > :38:17.homes? The green belt is only 15%. This idea we can only fix our broken
:38:18. > :38:20.housing market by taking huge swathes of land out of the green
:38:21. > :38:23.belt is not true. We will leave it there, thank you for joining us,
:38:24. > :38:25.Gavin Barwell. It is coming up to 11.40.
:38:26. > :38:28.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:38:29. > :38:38.Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead...
:38:39. > :38:41.In the East Midlands: As MPs debate how to leave the European Union,
:38:42. > :38:45.one businessman has a simple message for our politicians.
:38:46. > :38:48.Here we are now, seven months on, and we still haven't sorted out that
:38:49. > :38:52.So we are trading, and we're coming out of it.
:38:53. > :38:55.already come out of it, but we need leadership,
:38:56. > :39:01.And the East Midlands needs to build 20,000 homes a year to meet demand.
:39:02. > :39:04.Could a new take on an old technology be the answer?
:39:05. > :39:07.So how does the government solve the housing crisis?
:39:08. > :39:09.Well, perhaps there are lessons to learn here
:39:10. > :39:16.can produce a three-storey house a day.
:39:17. > :39:20.Our guests this week - Andrew Bridgen, Conservative MP
:39:21. > :39:22.for North West Leicestershire, and Toby Perkins, Labour
:39:23. > :39:28.Well, both of our MPs had very different takes on this week's
:39:29. > :39:31.debate in Parliament over Donald Trump's travel ban on people
:39:32. > :39:37.Toby doesn't want Donald Trump being allowed to address Parliament.
:39:38. > :39:42.Andrew wasn't so concerned when he spoke in the Commons.
:39:43. > :39:51.Does my right honourable friend share my disappointment that so
:39:52. > :39:53.many members of this house have got so used
:39:54. > :39:55.to us not having control of
:39:56. > :39:57.our own immigration policy that they appear to resent another
:39:58. > :40:01.sovereign country having control of theirs?
:40:02. > :40:09.He got quite a few groans of the opposition, but you seem relaxed at
:40:10. > :40:12.the idea of a Trump state visit. Theresa May had the privilege of
:40:13. > :40:16.being the first world leader to officially meet Donald Trump in the
:40:17. > :40:22.White House, it would be crazy if, as the leader of the free world, we
:40:23. > :40:27.didn't invite him. And especially at the moment as we are serving our
:40:28. > :40:29.links to the EU, we are leaving the EU, our relationship and trading
:40:30. > :40:34.relationship with the US is as important now as it has been at any
:40:35. > :40:40.time since the Second World War. And crucially, a free trade agreement
:40:41. > :40:44.with the USA, it will lower region of a lot of pressure on our
:40:45. > :40:48.negotiation position with the EU to get good access to the single
:40:49. > :40:52.moment. Was it right she made up so quickly? They had only just met, to
:40:53. > :40:58.be fair. There's no timescale set for the visit will stop people said
:40:59. > :41:03.it had to be delayed, but how do you delay at when a date has been fixed?
:41:04. > :41:11.The 90 day travel ban, suspension, which has raised such Fiore, that
:41:12. > :41:15.will be resolved. We don't know when it will be. It will be in six
:41:16. > :41:19.months' time, it needs to be, we need to have the free trade
:41:20. > :41:24.agreement started and finished so on the day we exit the European Union,
:41:25. > :41:30.two years from the middle of March, that we've got that design. A of
:41:31. > :41:34.other trade agreements, which will help our negotiating position. A
:41:35. > :41:38.state visit by Donald Trump is on the card, Toby, you signed a motion
:41:39. > :41:44.against President trump addressing parliament, which would form part of
:41:45. > :41:49.that state visit. Leicester City Mayor says is not welcome, but as
:41:50. > :41:55.Andrew says, he is the leader of our closest ally, America. Of course he
:41:56. > :41:59.is, and he has started his leadership in the same way as he
:42:00. > :42:06.started his, finished his campaign. This idiotic policy of arbitrary
:42:07. > :42:11.ban, only on Muslims from seven nations, none of those nations has
:42:12. > :42:16.been responsible for a single American death and 911. If this was
:42:17. > :42:19.a serious policy about security, why wouldn't you include Saudi Arabia.
:42:20. > :42:23.Just because you don't agree with him, does that mean we should stop
:42:24. > :42:30.him from visiting this country? He's had a policy there, which has
:42:31. > :42:35.received almost universal condemnation. Many people felt
:42:36. > :42:39.deeply ashamed of Theresa May's craven approach, holding hands with
:42:40. > :42:47.him as he was introducing one of the most divisive and idiotic policies
:42:48. > :42:52.in terms of actually eradicating Muslim extremism. It adds to the
:42:53. > :42:56.problems of extremism. Do you ignore the public outcry on the state
:42:57. > :43:02.visit? No, but if we only invited world leaders... Clearly you are.
:43:03. > :43:07.I've had more e-mails saying Trump must come than shouldn't. So that's
:43:08. > :43:09.a quick poll of North West Leicestershire. If we only invited
:43:10. > :43:12.world leaders to visit our country world leaders to visit our country
:43:13. > :43:15.where we agreed with them, we wouldn't have any visitors at all.
:43:16. > :43:17.It's been another week in which Brexit has dominated
:43:18. > :43:21.But how ready is our region's economy for coping with leaving
:43:22. > :43:25.New figures out this week found that we have areas with some
:43:26. > :43:27.of the highest reliance in the country on EU exports.
:43:28. > :43:31.The Centre for Cities looked at how important sales to EU countries
:43:32. > :43:33.were as a proportion of total exports.
:43:34. > :43:36.Mansfield had the fourth highest figure, with 67%
:43:37. > :43:46.Leicester has 47% and Derby's figure of 25%
:43:47. > :43:52.So, can we learn anything from Derby, and should the rest
:43:53. > :43:58.It's a hi-tech firm exporting around the world.
:43:59. > :44:02.EPM Technology in Derby makes carbon fibre products for
:44:03. > :44:06.And it counts plane makers and car manufacturers
:44:07. > :44:11.This is a fully carbon fibre structure of an
:44:12. > :44:15.aircraft, so it weighs 200 kilos only.
:44:16. > :44:19.And because we are using technology and
:44:20. > :44:20.modern techniques, we produce something
:44:21. > :44:26.The company has plans to double sales, and Brexit isn't seen
:44:27. > :44:31.I don't see it as any different to the world.
:44:32. > :44:36.and they are in the EU, or they are in America,
:44:37. > :44:40.Tomorrow I'm in Italy, next week I'm in America.
:44:41. > :44:43.Two weeks ago we were trying to construct a deal worth three
:44:44. > :44:49.We could be in Australia this week in March.
:44:50. > :44:54.We are a global business, we are not an
:44:55. > :45:01.Derby's strenghs of manufacturing with major worldwide
:45:02. > :45:05.employers means the city export nearly as much to the US as it does
:45:06. > :45:08.Derby has three times more production for manufacturing
:45:09. > :45:13.We are lucky to have big companies like
:45:14. > :45:17.Rolls-Royce and Bombardier, who by happenstance do most
:45:18. > :45:20.of the trading with non European
:45:21. > :45:25.Is the way in which Derby is pointing the way forward, then,
:45:26. > :45:31.We can compete successfully in areas like automotive, defence,
:45:32. > :45:35.aeronautics, this is where our strengths lie.
:45:36. > :45:38.It is cutting edge, high-end of manufacturing.
:45:39. > :45:40.Good news with Derby, perhaps, but the Centre
:45:41. > :45:42.the Cities, which compiled the report, is concerned
:45:43. > :45:47.and cities are reliant on EU exports.
:45:48. > :45:51.This raises the importance, really, of the government prioritising
:45:52. > :45:54.and focusing on getting as good a deal as possible for the country
:45:55. > :46:02.But whatever deal the politicians eventually strike, there
:46:03. > :46:04.is a simple message from the factory floor.
:46:05. > :46:08.Our message to politicians is very, very simple.
:46:09. > :46:13.It's been seven months, you put the telly on and Donald Trump has
:46:14. > :46:19.going to agree with, or you are at least going to wince
:46:20. > :46:21.at, but he's making decisions.
:46:22. > :46:24.We've had a decision, we voted, we've had a holiday, they
:46:25. > :46:27.come back to Parliament, what's the plan?
:46:28. > :46:30.It's a wake-up call for politicians, the future shape of the
:46:31. > :46:33.economy may be uncertain, but our businesses are keen to begin
:46:34. > :46:47.A simple matter should from Graham in Derbyshire, why is this taking so
:46:48. > :46:51.long, and where is the plan? Theresa May has outlined what her planners
:46:52. > :46:56.to, to get the best accessed for UK business of the single market. We
:46:57. > :47:01.know so little, the referendum was last year. She said we will offer
:47:02. > :47:05.the EU, the offer is on the table for free trade, exactly as we are
:47:06. > :47:09.now. Negotiations won't start until we trigger article 50 in March. It
:47:10. > :47:13.is up to the EU. What I will tell you now is we will be a good cop,
:47:14. > :47:20.bad cop syndrome when David Davis been a good cup, and William Fox
:47:21. > :47:25.come he will be stacking up the free-trade agreements. Should you be
:47:26. > :47:29.telling this as? It'll be out there. Stacking of the free-trade
:47:30. > :47:33.agreements, and it will sign the day we leave the EU, it will put the
:47:34. > :47:38.pressure on them. And you think they will listen? They will because
:47:39. > :47:42.otherwise they will realise what the next backlash against Leeds, the
:47:43. > :47:47.German car worker, the French farmer, the Italian wine producer,
:47:48. > :47:50.realising the EU lead will sacrifice their trade with the UK, and their
:47:51. > :47:55.livelihoods to maintain the European structure. What do you think of as
:47:56. > :48:02.good cop, bad cop idea? We've now had the tests of the Brexit tears,
:48:03. > :48:06.we will get terror free access, the level of betrayal people feel if
:48:07. > :48:13.Andrew's deal isn't achieved, it will be real and justified. I am not
:48:14. > :48:16.convinced we will have a whole lot of trade deals lined up to sign the
:48:17. > :48:22.minute we pull out in two years' time. But time will tell. I think we
:48:23. > :48:26.do have a plan now but I'm concerned at what it is, I think Theresa May
:48:27. > :48:32.has had two big strategic failures, the verses she should have told us
:48:33. > :48:38.we weren't going to invoke article 50 until meaningful negotiations
:48:39. > :48:44.could happen. We haven't got talks starting. Your party is pushing for
:48:45. > :48:48.the dozens of amendments. That will hold everything up. We've only got
:48:49. > :48:54.three days to discuss it, it won't hold it up to much. It will happen,
:48:55. > :48:57.but this is a really significant decision. We've got people there
:48:58. > :49:02.saying, other decisions, other countries are making decisions. It
:49:03. > :49:08.is incredibly complicated. It will cost us a lot of money. Making sure
:49:09. > :49:12.we get it right is more important. She made a big mistake. She's also
:49:13. > :49:17.made a mistake by already accepting we won't be a part of the single
:49:18. > :49:23.market. That could have been part of the negotiation. She has given up an
:49:24. > :49:27.ace card, before we started it. She started badly, I'm concerned. If
:49:28. > :49:33.we've stayed in the single market, we are not really leaving the EU,
:49:34. > :49:37.we'd be in a worse position. We should have negotiated to stay in
:49:38. > :49:42.there. It is our sovereignty and having control over our own laws.
:49:43. > :49:47.You are mistaking being in the single market to access to it. We
:49:48. > :49:51.still really need this really vital good trade deal with the EU. Derby
:49:52. > :49:56.may have the least reliance on exports to the EU, but it still has
:49:57. > :50:01.25% of exports. With the global trade, we can't ignore the EU. The
:50:02. > :50:06.EU can't ignore us. When we leave, we will be the biggest market for EU
:50:07. > :50:10.goods in the world. 70% of all EU exports will be coming to the UK.
:50:11. > :50:16.And that is a leveraged position as well. The centre for cities also
:50:17. > :50:20.points out that historically, of course, trading with your neighbour
:50:21. > :50:26.is always far easier, isn't it? One of the statistical things, every
:50:27. > :50:33.additional mile you travel to a new market, your business halves. Every
:50:34. > :50:38.time you double the distance, you are trading hard. 43% of our exports
:50:39. > :50:43.go to the EU. Getting that relationship is important, and I'm
:50:44. > :50:48.worried we have started on a basis of already cashing in our chips.
:50:49. > :50:52.Many people voted for this without immigration, and they thought we
:50:53. > :50:56.would carry on trading. If we carry on treading tariff free, that will
:50:57. > :51:01.be significant. If we don't, it won't be down to the government.
:51:02. > :51:07.That's the problem. We are offering them tariff free trading. It will be
:51:08. > :51:12.up to the EU to reject it. It will have a huge backlash if they tried
:51:13. > :51:17.that, because the countries of the EU, there is formally in jobs
:51:18. > :51:22.reliant on trade with the UK, there's 3 million jobs in the UK
:51:23. > :51:26.reliant on trade with the EU. We are the customer. We can't give the same
:51:27. > :51:31.benefits. Let's see, no one has ever left the EU, so let's see what we
:51:32. > :51:35.can get. But the noises and good offstage. They're never going to be
:51:36. > :51:39.good, you won't give away your negotiating position before you
:51:40. > :51:46.start. The truth is... We will leave. We are losing 27 customers,
:51:47. > :51:51.that is the reality everyone realises. Only five of the 27 we
:51:52. > :51:57.have a trade surplus with. 22 have a huge trade deficit, 25 billion a
:51:58. > :52:02.year with Germany alone. One of four of German cars are exported to the
:52:03. > :52:04.UK. Do they want tariffs on automobiles? I don't think so.
:52:05. > :52:06.Next week, it's expected the Government's long
:52:07. > :52:08.awaited housing White Paper will be published.
:52:09. > :52:10.A million new homes were promised by 2020, but that looks
:52:11. > :52:13.like a target which is now out of reach.
:52:14. > :52:15.In the East Midlands, we need 20,000 new homes
:52:16. > :52:17.a year to meet the demands of a growing population.
:52:18. > :52:20.As our Political Editor Tony Roe reports, could a new generation
:52:21. > :52:23.of pre-fabricated homes be one solution?
:52:24. > :52:26.This is Bilberry in Nottingham, a post-war estate of prefab council
:52:27. > :52:30.houses, part of a plan by Churchill which created a million homes by
:52:31. > :52:35.Not built to last, but some have, and they are being updated.
:52:36. > :52:45.That's the answer nine out of ten people all
:52:46. > :52:50.over Britain give when asked, what'S number one the country's
:52:51. > :52:52.over Britain give when asked, what's number one the country's
:52:53. > :52:57.this is SIG in Derbyshire, and the homes
:52:58. > :53:00.built here are sold to developers for the high end of the market.
:53:01. > :53:04.This line is designed to do three modules a day,
:53:05. > :53:10.But can modular housing be a way of fixing
:53:11. > :53:12.the housing crisis, because we are clearly
:53:13. > :53:17.Affordable housing has really taken a bit of a dive.
:53:18. > :53:20.And the government, I think, has also shifted away from
:53:21. > :53:25.traditional forms of affordable housing towards things like low-cost
:53:26. > :53:28.homeownership, which is not really the same thing.
:53:29. > :53:30.The thing is, though, when it comes to homes,
:53:31. > :53:33.won't people prefer something traditional?
:53:34. > :53:35.There's people in desperate situations that will just
:53:36. > :53:38.In fact, probably living in a prefab is
:53:39. > :53:41.better than living in some of the dilapidated buildings there are
:53:42. > :53:46.Because you've only got to look around this place.
:53:47. > :53:48.They can modernise them now so they look nice,
:53:49. > :53:52.but I don't know, I would have to see it first.
:53:53. > :53:54.Today's traditional house-builders also have the problem
:53:55. > :53:57.of the rising cost of building materials.
:53:58. > :54:00.Add to that the shortage of the right skilled labour.
:54:01. > :54:07.Bricklayer prices as well are going up.
:54:08. > :54:11.So labour is becoming an issue, and materials as well.
:54:12. > :54:14.Also slowing things down are austerity cuts to
:54:15. > :54:18.Since the downturn, there's been a lack of
:54:19. > :54:23.That's very, very evident these days.
:54:24. > :54:25.We are trying to get things through planning, it's quite
:54:26. > :54:28.difficult for them to deal with all the applications that are coming
:54:29. > :54:31.Then there is the thorny issue for planners, giving
:54:32. > :54:33.permission to build on fields in the face of local
:54:34. > :54:38.175 homes are planned here for Ruddington.
:54:39. > :54:40.The biggest problem for any government trying to cope with
:54:41. > :54:44.the rising population and the demand for housing is people.
:54:45. > :54:48.People objecting to homes being put near
:54:49. > :54:53.Fully insulated, Wi-Fi ready, eco-friendly, this is the top
:54:54. > :54:57.floor of a three-storey home heading to the north-east, ready to move
:54:58. > :55:01.There's an awful lot of experience required in
:55:02. > :55:03.putting together a process like this.
:55:04. > :55:07.Prefabricated homes are used a lot in the continent, and America in
:55:08. > :55:12.And it doesn't have to be low-cost homes, it could be any
:55:13. > :55:15.It's not a technology in this country we are familiar
:55:16. > :55:18.with, but actually if you look at what happens elsewhere, it's a major
:55:19. > :55:23.part of the way in which people address the housing issues.
:55:24. > :55:24.Do this for social housing, make them
:55:25. > :55:26.affordable, and it could be a Churchill type
:55:27. > :55:34.But it would take time to find and train
:55:35. > :55:38.people and the companies willing to do it.
:55:39. > :55:43.Toby, we do need thousands of new homes, would you like to see more of
:55:44. > :55:50.these prefabricated houses in Chesterfield? I would be open-minded
:55:51. > :55:54.to them, but you're right, there's a huge housing crisis, we are seeing
:55:55. > :55:57.homelessness doubled, David Cameron was the Prime Minister who resided
:55:58. > :56:02.at the smallest amount of house building of any prime ministers
:56:03. > :56:05.since the war. We are building fewer affordable homes than we've done at
:56:06. > :56:10.any point in the last 24 years. It is a catastrophe. Prefab houses,
:56:11. > :56:12.they look more modern than that used to. I don't mind that, I can dig you
:56:13. > :56:16.run Chesterfield and show you site run Chesterfield and show you site
:56:17. > :56:22.at the side were planning permission and they aren't building houses.
:56:23. > :56:25.Labour's strategy, people had limits of how long you can sit on land
:56:26. > :56:30.without getting on with it. These companies online banking. That'll
:56:31. > :56:34.come up in the White Paper, from what I've read. Andrew, they can
:56:35. > :56:41.build these houses in a day, which you think it's a good idea, is that
:56:42. > :56:44.one solution? Part of houses now are already prefabricated, chimney
:56:45. > :56:49.stacks and various arches. I would be in favourites, as long as there
:56:50. > :56:53.is no compromise in quality. Affordable does not need cheap. We
:56:54. > :57:02.have the highest economic growth in the East Midlands in North West
:57:03. > :57:09.Cheshire, we are computing to new houses. We competed 678 new houses,
:57:10. > :57:12.we will complete over 700. In every constituency was doing that, we
:57:13. > :57:17.would exceed it. We did we building after the war, why can't we do it
:57:18. > :57:22.now? We are building them. Not just a North West Leicestershire. It is a
:57:23. > :57:27.great place to live. You would say that. Toby, this isn't the whole
:57:28. > :57:31.answer, the idea prefab houses, there's a lot of talk and an awful
:57:32. > :57:36.lot of concern right now about building on the green belt. Maybe
:57:37. > :57:43.it's time we said yes, it has do happen. People will be sympathetic
:57:44. > :57:47.to it. I could take you around Chesterfield and show you site is
:57:48. > :57:53.ready to be built, but people aren't building the houses on them. We can
:57:54. > :57:57.talk about... Why has that happen? It is in their interest for that to
:57:58. > :58:04.be a shortage. They desire the fact that the markets, that it is a
:58:05. > :58:09.sellers market. It is in the interest to say, to keep that
:58:10. > :58:12.shortage. After many of these developers builds, have the space,
:58:13. > :58:15.get the planning permission, don't build the houses, get a proffered by
:58:16. > :58:19.having proper planning permission and then sell the land on. What do
:58:20. > :58:28.you think should happen, as Terry said... I do have some sympathy. It
:58:29. > :58:34.will be unpopular. We've got the green surrounding, which is the most
:58:35. > :58:37.valued bit of green space in Leicestershire. I'm trying to
:58:38. > :58:41.prevent building there. There are things the council can do. They will
:58:42. > :58:44.start collaborating with South Derbyshire to build the first
:58:45. > :58:49.council houses that we built the decades to address the needs of
:58:50. > :58:50.local people. We also hear that part of the government's proposals on
:58:51. > :58:55.building and green belt land, which building and green belt land, which
:58:56. > :58:59.will be revealed next week, would force councils to build on green
:59:00. > :59:04.belt land when Brownfield land has already been used. What do you think
:59:05. > :59:09.of that? That is one of your proposals. We are already building
:59:10. > :59:12.700 new houses a year in North West Leicestershire. We are doing our
:59:13. > :59:18.bit. So you're saying don't want more? We will keep building until we
:59:19. > :59:24.have satiated the building. When a factory closes down and an area of
:59:25. > :59:28.land is available in a town, they don't normally tell you three years
:59:29. > :59:31.in advance they will close a factory, so it can't be incorporated
:59:32. > :59:38.into the plan long-term, but they should be used first. Houses are
:59:39. > :59:41.being built, maybe not in the areas under Brownfield land you would
:59:42. > :59:47.like, but we dealt build 15,000 homes last year. That is more than
:59:48. > :59:56.in 2008 when there was just 7000 and Labour. It is a step forward. You
:59:57. > :00:00.look at the record of Gordon Brown, Tony Blair, David Cameron's record
:00:01. > :00:03.was the worst. Going back to any prime is that you can name. Thanks,
:00:04. > :00:06.Toby. We've not had a lot of houses. Time now for a roundup of some
:00:07. > :00:08.of the other political stories My dad would spend
:00:09. > :00:16.the whole weekend drunk. Jon Ashworth's account of being
:00:17. > :00:19.brought up by an alcoholic moved government minister
:00:20. > :00:23.Nicola Blackwood to tears. It requires nonpartisan
:00:24. > :00:26.partnership, and it And I've heard all
:00:27. > :00:34.three of those today. She promised the Leicester
:00:35. > :00:36.South MP she would draw up a new strategy to help
:00:37. > :00:39.children of alcoholics. Almost ?1 a week could be
:00:40. > :00:41.added to council tax Some of that will help
:00:42. > :00:44.pay for ?50 million Leicestershire County Council
:00:45. > :00:48.has pledged ?50,000 to support the campaign
:00:49. > :00:51.to save children's heart surgery at It will be used to help fund
:00:52. > :00:54.an illegal challenge against And an unusual start
:00:55. > :01:02.to a Leicester City Rappers Amy G and Lacky C's
:01:03. > :01:05.song was promoting awareness of autism and Asperger's
:01:06. > :01:10.at an adult social care meeting, That's the Sunday Politics
:01:11. > :01:21.in the East Midlands, our thanks to Toby Perkins
:01:22. > :01:24.and Andrew Bridgen. Next week Margot Parker
:01:25. > :01:33.and Mark Spencer will be here. programme at another time an airport
:01:34. > :01:35.expansion, but thank you to both of you for being here. Back to you,
:01:36. > :01:40.Andrew. Will the Government's plan
:01:41. > :01:44.to boost house-building Could a handful of Conservative
:01:45. > :01:47.MPs cause problems for And what is President
:01:48. > :02:06.Trump going to do next? You have been following the genesis
:02:07. > :02:10.of this housing white paper. What do you make of it? I think it will be
:02:11. > :02:17.quite spectacular, pretty radical stuff. We heard bits about beating
:02:18. > :02:20.up on developers. I understand it will be a whack, walk, covering
:02:21. > :02:26.every single problem with housing supply and trying to solve it. Which
:02:27. > :02:29.means bad news if you are a huge fan of the green belt, because they will
:02:30. > :02:32.go round that the other way by forcing large quotas on councils are
:02:33. > :02:38.making it down to councils where they build. If you fill up your
:02:39. > :02:41.brown space in towns they will have to trigger the exceptional
:02:42. > :02:45.circumstances bit of the bill to beat on green belts. Beating up
:02:46. > :02:50.developers, opening up the market for renters across the board. And
:02:51. > :02:54.Theresa May, one of the most defining thing she could do on the
:02:55. > :03:00.domestic agenda. I am not as excited as Tom about this. I look back to
:03:01. > :03:05.2004, do you remember the Kate Barker report? Successive
:03:06. > :03:12.governments, successive prime ministers have been promising to
:03:13. > :03:15.address the housing shortage. In 2004 Kate Barker recommended
:03:16. > :03:21.hundreds of thousands new homes. Gordon Brown talked about 3 million
:03:22. > :03:26.new homes by 2020 in 2007. It never happens. The reason is at the end of
:03:27. > :03:28.the day this is local politics, local councillors need to keep their
:03:29. > :03:30.seats and they won't keep their seats if there are hugely
:03:31. > :03:36.controversial developments locally that they support. Yes, the
:03:37. > :03:41.government can and are proposing to overrule councils that don't back
:03:42. > :03:44.local developments, but they may find themselves completely inundated
:03:45. > :03:49.with those cases. I think that is the whole point of it, to take on
:03:50. > :03:57.those NIMBY often Tory councils and force them to build. I can't think
:03:58. > :04:02.of a better defining issue for Theresa May than sticking one in the
:04:03. > :04:07.eye of some quite well off half Tory countryside councils. The government
:04:08. > :04:12.gives councils a quota of homes they have to fill, if they don't have to
:04:13. > :04:16.fill that all run out overland to fill the quota, the government then
:04:17. > :04:20.comes in and tells them they have to built on the green belt? How is that
:04:21. > :04:23.going to work? At the moment the green belt is absolutely sacrosanct
:04:24. > :04:30.in British politics. They'll have to do some work on educating people on
:04:31. > :04:35.what green belts means. Potato farms, golf courses... At the moment
:04:36. > :04:39.the idea people have of the green belt being verdant fields needs to
:04:40. > :04:44.be dismantled. You are right. I agree with Tom, 11 million people in
:04:45. > :04:47.the private rental sector in the UK. In the last election more voted
:04:48. > :04:51.Labour than conservative. This is an area where Theresa May would look to
:04:52. > :04:55.expand her vote. The problem has always been, the same problem we
:04:56. > :05:00.have with pension policy and why pensioners have done better than
:05:01. > :05:05.working families in recent years. They are older and they vote more
:05:06. > :05:12.and anything to the detriment of older people. I wonder how they will
:05:13. > :05:16.get private money to come in on anything like this go they would
:05:17. > :05:21.need to have a huge expansion? There is a huge amount of speculation and
:05:22. > :05:24.one of the thing that locks up the system as you have people buying
:05:25. > :05:29.land, taking out a stake of land in the hope that one point it may at
:05:30. > :05:33.some point free up. At the end of the day, unless you have councils
:05:34. > :05:37.far more willing to quickly fast track these applications, which they
:05:38. > :05:42.won't for the reason I said before, it's a very long-term investment. Ed
:05:43. > :05:47.Miliband proposed three-year leases in which the rent could only go up
:05:48. > :05:52.by an agreed formula, probably the three years to give the young
:05:53. > :05:57.families a certain stability over that period. He had a use it or lose
:05:58. > :06:01.it rules for planning development, if you don't use it you lose the
:06:02. > :06:05.planning rights. Somebody else gets it. The Tories disparaged that at
:06:06. > :06:11.the time. This is at the centre of their policy now.
:06:12. > :06:14.This is probably item number four of Ed Miliband's policy book Theresa
:06:15. > :06:19.May has wholesale pinched in the last six months or so. Why not? I
:06:20. > :06:23.think if you look at the change in mood across housing and planning
:06:24. > :06:28.over the last 5-6 years, it used to be an issue very much of green belt
:06:29. > :06:31.versus London planners. Now you have grandparents living in houses in the
:06:32. > :06:34.countryside, knowing their grandchildren can't get on the
:06:35. > :06:40.housing ladder any longer. Maybe a bit more intervention in the market,
:06:41. > :06:43.tougher on renting conditions, maybe that is exactly what the country
:06:44. > :06:49.needs. Will they meet the 1 million target? It would be a defiance of
:06:50. > :06:54.every political thing that has happened in the last ten years. I
:06:55. > :06:57.think Tom is right, if there is only one difference between Theresa May
:06:58. > :07:01.and David Cameron it's the willingness of the state to
:07:02. > :07:07.intervene. When Ed Miliband said that he was seen as communism, but
:07:08. > :07:14.Theresa May can get away with it. How serious is this talk of a couple
:07:15. > :07:19.of dozen Tories who were very loyal over voting for the principle of
:07:20. > :07:23.Article 50 but may now be tempted to vote for some amendments to Article
:07:24. > :07:27.50 legislation that they would find quite attractive? I think that
:07:28. > :07:33.threat has certainly been taken seriously by levers. I spoke to the
:07:34. > :07:38.campaign group Leaves Means Leave last night. The figure they
:07:39. > :07:40.mentioned was up to 20 remaining Tories. That sounds a lot to me but
:07:41. > :07:46.that is what they are concerned about and those Tories would come
:07:47. > :07:50.together with Labour and the SNP to vote for that amendment. Although
:07:51. > :07:55.that amendment sounds rather nice and democratic, actually in the eyes
:07:56. > :07:59.of many levers that is a wrecking amendment. Because what you are
:08:00. > :08:03.doing is giving Parliament a sort of veto over whatever deal Theresa May
:08:04. > :08:07.brings back. What they want is the vote to be before that deal is
:08:08. > :08:11.finalised. It isn't necessarily the case that if Parliament decided they
:08:12. > :08:15.didn't like that deal we would just go to WTO, we would fall out of the
:08:16. > :08:21.European Union. There are mixed views as to whether we might remain
:08:22. > :08:26.in and things could be extended. My understanding is the people making
:08:27. > :08:30.the amendments, they won any deal that is done to be brought to
:08:31. > :08:36.Parliament in time, so that if Parliament fancies it it's done, but
:08:37. > :08:40.if it does and it doesn't just mean go to WTO rules. There will be time
:08:41. > :08:45.to go back, renegotiate or think again? The question is where it puts
:08:46. > :08:53.Britain's negotiating hand. Nine of the options... Once we trigger
:08:54. > :08:56.Article 50 the two negotiation begins on the power switches to
:08:57. > :08:59.Europe. They can run out the clock and it will be worse for us than
:09:00. > :09:04.them. I don't think either option is particularly appealing. I think what
:09:05. > :09:07.seems like a rather Serena week for Article 50 this week isn't going to
:09:08. > :09:12.be reflective of what will happen next. The way the government's
:09:13. > :09:16.position is at the moment, if at the end the only choice Parliament has
:09:17. > :09:19.is to vote for the deal or crash out on WTO rules, then even the
:09:20. > :09:24.remainder is going to vote for the deal even if they don't like it,
:09:25. > :09:30.because they would regard crashing out as the worst of all possible
:09:31. > :09:34.results. Possibly. It will be a great game of bluff if Theresa May
:09:35. > :09:36.fights off any of these amendments on Wednesday and gets a
:09:37. > :09:40.straightforward deal or no Deal vote. I have a funny feeling this
:09:41. > :09:44.amendment, if it's chosen, we must remember because we don't know if
:09:45. > :09:50.they will choose this amendment, if it does go to a vote on Wednesday it
:09:51. > :09:53.will be very tight indeed. Remember, one final thing Theresa May can do
:09:54. > :09:59.if she gets Parliament voting against, as Isabel would have it,
:10:00. > :10:03.she could try to get a new parliament and go for a general
:10:04. > :10:09.election. And probably get a huge majority to do so. The Lords, it
:10:10. > :10:19.goes there after the February recess. They are very pro-Europe,
:10:20. > :10:25.but does their instinct for self-preservation override that? I
:10:26. > :10:28.think that is it. A Tory Lord said this morning I will vote to block it
:10:29. > :10:34.on a conscience measure, but you have the likes of Bill Cash, veteran
:10:35. > :10:38.Eurosceptics, suddenly converted to the Lords reform saying is an
:10:39. > :10:41.outrage. I doubt they will vote for their own demise, to hasten their
:10:42. > :10:49.own demise by blocking it. What did you make of Doctor Gorka smart
:10:50. > :10:52.fascinating. Cut from the same cloth as his boss. I thought it was
:10:53. > :10:56.extraordinary listening to him, saying everything is going dutifully
:10:57. > :11:00.to plan. But at the end of the day, what they are doing is what people
:11:01. > :11:04.in America voted for Trump to do. If you look at Lord Ashcroft's polling
:11:05. > :11:08.on why America voted for Trump, they went into this with their eyes wide
:11:09. > :11:14.open. One of the top fears among American voters, particularly
:11:15. > :11:17.Republican leading ones was America's immigration policy is or
:11:18. > :11:21.could be letting in terror arrests. As far as he is concerned, he is
:11:22. > :11:25.doing what he was elected to do. This whole year is turning into a
:11:26. > :11:28.wonderful year long lecture series on how democracy works at a
:11:29. > :11:32.fundamental level. I'm not sure anyone wanted it but it's what we've
:11:33. > :11:37.got. This same in the way we've been talking about direct democracy and
:11:38. > :11:42.Parliamentary democracy. The same is happening in America between
:11:43. > :11:46.executive and judicial branches. We are seeing the limits of
:11:47. > :11:49.presidential power. Regardless of the fact that people voted for Trump
:11:50. > :11:55.they voted for senators. The judge who blocks this was appointed by
:11:56. > :12:00.George W Bush. So-called Judge Eckert Mac so-called George W Bush!
:12:01. > :12:03.It's fascinating we're having all these conversations now that I never
:12:04. > :12:08.bought five years ago we would be having at such a fundamental level.
:12:09. > :12:12.Has the media yet worked out how to cover the Trump administration or
:12:13. > :12:18.has he got us behaving like headless chickens? He says something
:12:19. > :12:23.incendiary and we all run over to do that and when you pick it off it
:12:24. > :12:26.turns out not to be as incendiary as we thought? And then back doing
:12:27. > :12:31.something and we all rush over there. Is he making fools of us? Is
:12:32. > :12:36.exactly what he did in the election campaign. So many quick and fast
:12:37. > :12:40.outrageous comments frontrunner on a daily basis, no one single one of
:12:41. > :12:44.them had full news cycle time to be pored over and examined. I think
:12:45. > :12:49.there is a problem with this. Although he keeps the upper hand,
:12:50. > :12:53.keeps the agenda and keeps on the populist ground, the problem is it
:12:54. > :12:56.easy to campaign like that. If you are governing in a state of
:12:57. > :12:59.semi-hysteria, I wonder how long the American public will be comfortable
:13:00. > :13:02.with that. They don't really want their government to be swirling
:13:03. > :13:07.chaos all the time, as fascinating as it might be on TV. They will be
:13:08. > :13:13.exhausted by it, I already am. I have been interviewing White House
:13:14. > :13:17.administration official since 1976 and that is the first time someone
:13:18. > :13:18.hasn't given me a straight answer on America supporting the EU. That is a
:13:19. > :13:20.different world. Jo Coburn will be on BBC Two
:13:21. > :13:24.tomorrow at midday with the Daily Politics -
:13:25. > :13:26.and I'll be back here Remember, if it's Sunday -
:13:27. > :14:05.it's the Sunday Politics. TV: He's not your father.
:14:06. > :14:18.WOMAN GASPS so why not pay your TV licence in
:14:19. > :14:32.weekly instalments, too?