:00:37. > :00:42.It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:43. > :00:45.The Chancellor says that to embark on a spending spree
:00:46. > :00:47.in Wednesday's Budget would be "reckless".
:00:48. > :00:50.But will there be more money for social care and to ease
:00:51. > :00:56.The UK terror threat is currently severe,
:00:57. > :00:58.but where is that threat coming from?
:00:59. > :01:01.We have the detailed picture from a vast new study of every
:01:02. > :01:05.Islamist related terrorist offence committed over the last two decades.
:01:06. > :01:12.What can we learn from these offences to thwart future attacks?
:01:13. > :01:14.The government was defeated in the Lords on its
:01:15. > :01:20.In the East Midlands: of Commons what he'll do if peers
:01:21. > :01:23.Policing in a perilous state - we will be hearing from the boss
:01:24. > :01:26.of a force criticised for how it handles emergencies.
:01:27. > :01:37.And are we doing enough to tackle domestic violence?
:01:38. > :01:41.All that coming up in the next hour and a quarter.
:01:42. > :01:43.Now, some of you might have read that intruders managed
:01:44. > :01:46.to get into the BBC news studios this weekend.
:01:47. > :01:49.Well three of them appear not to have been ejected yet,
:01:50. > :01:53.so we might as well make use of them as our political panel.
:01:54. > :01:55.Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.
:01:56. > :02:00.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:02:01. > :02:06.Philip Hammond will deliver his second financial
:02:07. > :02:08.statement as Chancellor and the last Spring Budget
:02:09. > :02:11.for a while at least - they are moving to the Autumn
:02:12. > :02:15.There's been pressure on him to find more money
:02:16. > :02:17.for the Health Service, social care, schools funding,
:02:18. > :02:22.But this morning the Chancellor insisted that he will not be
:02:23. > :02:25.using the proceeds of better than expected tax receipts to embark
:02:26. > :02:36.What is being speculated on is whether we might not have borrowed
:02:37. > :02:43.quite as much as we were forecast to borrow. You will see the numbers on
:02:44. > :02:47.Wednesday. But if your bank increases your credit card limit, I
:02:48. > :02:49.do not think you feel obliged to go out and spent every last penny of it
:02:50. > :03:01.He is moving the budget to the autumn, he told us that in his
:03:02. > :03:07.statement, so maybe on Wednesday it will be like a spring statement
:03:08. > :03:11.rather than a full-blown budget. Tinkering pre-Brexit and in November
:03:12. > :03:14.he will have a more clear idea of the impact of Brexit and I suspect
:03:15. > :03:20.that will be the bigger event than this one. It looks as if there will
:03:21. > :03:25.be a bit of money here and there, small amounts, not enough in my
:03:26. > :03:30.view, for social care and so on, possibly a review of social care
:03:31. > :03:34.policy. A familiar device which rarely get anywhere. I think he has
:03:35. > :03:39.got a bit more space to do more if he wanted to do now because of the
:03:40. > :03:44.politics. They are miles ahead in the polls, so he could do more, but
:03:45. > :03:50.it is not in his character, he is cautious. So he keeps his powder dry
:03:51. > :03:57.on most things, he does some things, but he keeps it dry until November.
:03:58. > :04:01.But also, as Steve says, he will know just how strong the economy has
:04:02. > :04:05.been this year by November and whether he needs to do some pump
:04:06. > :04:11.priming or whether everything is fine. He said it is too early to
:04:12. > :04:15.make those sorts of judgments now. What is striking is the amount of
:04:16. > :04:20.concern there is an Number ten and in the Treasury about the tone of
:04:21. > :04:23.this budget, so less about the actual figures and more about what
:04:24. > :04:29.message this is sending out to the rest of the world. I think some
:04:30. > :04:33.senior MPs are calling it a kind of treading water budget and Phil
:04:34. > :04:37.Hammond has got quite a difficult act to perform because he is
:04:38. > :04:44.instinctively rather cautious, or very cautious, and instinctively
:04:45. > :04:48.slightly gloomy about Brexit. He wanted to remain. But he does not
:04:49. > :04:53.want this budget to sounded downbeat and he will be mauled if he makes it
:04:54. > :04:57.sound downbeat, so he has to inject a little bit of optimism and we may
:04:58. > :05:03.see that in the infrastructure spending plans. He has got some room
:05:04. > :05:07.to manoeuvre. The deficit by the financial year ending in April we
:05:08. > :05:11.now know will not be as big as the OBR told us only three and a half
:05:12. > :05:16.months ago that it would be. They added 12 billion on and they may
:05:17. > :05:19.take most of that off again. He is under pressure from his own side to
:05:20. > :05:24.do something on social care and business rates and I bet some Tory
:05:25. > :05:29.backbenchers would not mind a little bit more money for the NHS as well.
:05:30. > :05:36.He is on a huge pressure to do a whole lot on a whole load, not just
:05:37. > :05:42.social care. There is also how on earth do we pay for so many old
:05:43. > :05:48.people? There is the NHS, defence spending, everything. But his words
:05:49. > :05:52.this morning, which is I am not going to spend potentially an extra
:05:53. > :05:57.30 billion I might have by 2020 because of improved economic growth
:05:58. > :06:04.was interesting. You need to hold something back because Brexit might
:06:05. > :06:10.go back and he was a bit of a remain campaign person. If you think
:06:11. > :06:14.Britain is going to curl up into a corner and hideaway licking its
:06:15. > :06:18.wounds, you have got another think coming. That 30 billion he might
:06:19. > :06:23.have extra in his pocket could be worth deploying on building up
:06:24. > :06:30.Britain with huge tax cuts in case there is no deal, a war chest if you
:06:31. > :06:34.like. He will have more than 27 billion. He may decide 27 billion in
:06:35. > :06:39.the statement, the margin by which he tries to get the structural
:06:40. > :06:43.deficit down, he will still have 27 billion. If the receipts are better
:06:44. > :06:50.than they are forecast, some people are saying he will have a war chest
:06:51. > :06:56.of 60 billion. That money, as Mr Osborne found out, can disappear. He
:06:57. > :07:02.clearly is planning not to go on a spending spree this Wednesday. It is
:07:03. > :07:07.interesting in the FTB and the day, David Laws who was chief Secretary
:07:08. > :07:10.for five minutes, was also enthusiastic about the original
:07:11. > :07:15.George Osborne austerity programme and he said, we have reached the
:07:16. > :07:18.limits to what is socially possible with this and a consensus is
:07:19. > :07:23.beginning to emerge that he will have to spend more money than he
:07:24. > :07:28.plans to this Wednesday. This is not just from Labour MPs, but from a lot
:07:29. > :07:32.of Conservative MPs as well. People will wonder when this austerity will
:07:33. > :07:35.end because it seems to be going on for ever. We will have more on the
:07:36. > :07:38.budget later in the programme. Now, the government was defeated
:07:39. > :07:41.last week in the House of Lords. Peers amended the bill that
:07:42. > :07:43.will allow Theresa May to trigger Brexit to guarantee the rights of EU
:07:44. > :07:46.nationals currently in the UK. The government says it will remove
:07:47. > :07:49.the amendment when the bill returns But today a report from
:07:50. > :07:55.the Common's Brexit committee also calls for the Government to make
:07:56. > :07:58.a unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU
:07:59. > :08:03.nationals living here. If the worst happened,
:08:04. > :08:06.are we actually going to say to 3 million Europeans here,
:08:07. > :08:10.who are nurses, doctors, serving us tea and coffee in restaurants,
:08:11. > :08:14.giving lectures at Leeds University, picking and processing vegetables,
:08:15. > :08:17."Right, off you go"? No, of course we are not
:08:18. > :08:19.going to say that. So, why not end the
:08:20. > :08:21.uncertainty for them now? will help to create the climate
:08:22. > :08:25.which will ensure everyone gets to say because that's
:08:26. > :08:36.what all of us want. That is why we have unanimously
:08:37. > :08:42.agreed this recommendation that the government should make unilateral
:08:43. > :08:45.decision to say to EU citizens here, yes, you can stay, because we think
:08:46. > :08:46.that is the right and fair thing to do.
:08:47. > :08:49.And we're joined now from Buckinghamshire by the leader
:08:50. > :08:53.of the House of Commons, David Lidington.
:08:54. > :08:59.Welcome back to the programme. The House of Lords has amended the
:09:00. > :09:02.Article 50 bill to allow the unilateral acceptance of EU
:09:03. > :09:06.nationals' right to remain in the UK. Is it still the government was
:09:07. > :09:13.my intention to remove that amendment in the comments? We have
:09:14. > :09:16.always been clear that we think this bill is very straightforward, it
:09:17. > :09:21.does nothing else except give the Prime Minister the authority that
:09:22. > :09:26.the courts insist upon to start the Article 50 process of negotiating
:09:27. > :09:33.with the other 27 EU countries. On the particular issue of EU citizens
:09:34. > :09:40.here and British citizens overseas, the PM did suggest that the December
:09:41. > :09:46.European summit last year that we do a pre-negotiation agreement on this.
:09:47. > :09:50.That was not acceptable to all of the other 27 because they took the
:09:51. > :09:54.view that you cannot have any kind of negotiation and to Article 50 has
:09:55. > :09:58.been triggered. That is where we are. I hope with goodwill and
:09:59. > :10:03.national self interest on all sides we can tackle this is right that the
:10:04. > :10:07.start of those negotiations. But it is not just the Lords. We have now
:10:08. > :10:12.got the cross-party Commons Brexit committee saying you should now make
:10:13. > :10:20.the unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU nationals in the
:10:21. > :10:26.UK. Even Michael go, Peter Lilley, John Whittington, agree. So why are
:10:27. > :10:31.you so stubborn on this issue? I think this is a complex issue that
:10:32. > :10:36.goes beyond the rise of presidents, but about things like the rights of
:10:37. > :10:44.access to health care, to pension ratings and benefits and so on...
:10:45. > :10:48.But you could settle back. It is also, Andrew, because you have got
:10:49. > :10:52.to look at it from the point of view of the British citizens, well over 1
:10:53. > :10:57.million living elsewhere in Europe. If we make the unilateral gesture,
:10:58. > :11:01.it might make us feel good for Britain and it would help in the
:11:02. > :11:07.short term those EU citizens who are here, but you have got those British
:11:08. > :11:12.citizens overseas who would then be potential bargaining chips in the
:11:13. > :11:17.hands of any of the 27 other governments. We do not know who will
:11:18. > :11:22.be in office during the negotiations and they may have completely
:11:23. > :11:25.extraneous reasons to hold up the agreement on the rights of British
:11:26. > :11:31.citizens. The sensible way to deal with this is 28 mature democracies
:11:32. > :11:34.getting around the table starting the negotiations and to agree to
:11:35. > :11:41.something that is fair to all sides and is reciprocal. What countries
:11:42. > :11:47.might take on UK nationals living in the EU? What countries are you
:11:48. > :11:52.frightened of? The one thing that I know from my own experience in the
:11:53. > :11:57.past of being involved in European negotiations is that issues come up
:11:58. > :12:04.that maybe have nothing to do with British nationals, but another issue
:12:05. > :12:08.that matters a huge amount to a particular government, it may not be
:12:09. > :12:13.a government yet in office, and they decide we can get something out of
:12:14. > :12:17.this, so let's hold up the agreement on British citizens until the
:12:18. > :12:23.British move in the direction we want on issue X. I hope it does not
:12:24. > :12:28.come to that. I think the messages I have had from EU ambassadors in
:12:29. > :12:32.London and from those it my former Europe colleague ministers is that
:12:33. > :12:36.we want this to be a done deal as quickly as possible. That is the
:12:37. > :12:42.British Government's very clear intention. We hope that we can get a
:12:43. > :12:46.reciprocal deal agreed before the Article 50 process. That was not
:12:47. > :12:51.possible. I understand that, you have said that already. But even if
:12:52. > :12:56.there is no reciprocal deal being done, is it really credible that EU
:12:57. > :13:02.nationals already here would lose their right to live and work and
:13:03. > :13:10.face deportation? You know that is not credible, that will not happen.
:13:11. > :13:15.We have already under our own system law whereby some people who have
:13:16. > :13:20.been lawfully resident and working here for five years can apply for
:13:21. > :13:24.permanent residency, but it is not just about residents. It is about
:13:25. > :13:28.whether residency carries with it certain rights of access to health
:13:29. > :13:35.care. I understand that, but have made this point. But the point is
:13:36. > :13:40.the right to live and work here that worries them at the moment. The Home
:13:41. > :13:46.Secretary has said there can be no change in their status without a
:13:47. > :13:49.vote in parliament. Could you ever imagine the British Parliament
:13:50. > :13:55.voting to remove their right to live and work here? I think the British
:13:56. > :14:03.Parliament will want to be very fair to EU citizens, as Hilary Benn and
:14:04. > :14:07.others rightly say they have been overwhelmingly been here working
:14:08. > :14:10.hard and paying taxes and contributing to our society. They
:14:11. > :14:15.were equally want to make sure there is a fair deal for our own citizens,
:14:16. > :14:19.more than a million, elsewhere in Europe. You cannot disentangle the
:14:20. > :14:25.issue of residence from those things that go with residents. Is the
:14:26. > :14:28.Article 50 timetabled to be triggered before the end of this
:14:29. > :14:34.month, is it threatened by these amendments in the Lords? I sincerely
:14:35. > :14:39.hope not because the House of Lords is a perfectly respectable
:14:40. > :14:43.constitutional role to look again at bills sent up by the House of
:14:44. > :14:49.commons. But they also have understood traditionally that as an
:14:50. > :14:53.unelected house they have to give primacy to the elected Commons at
:14:54. > :14:59.the end of the day. In this case it is not just the elected Commons that
:15:00. > :15:08.sent the bill to be amended, but the referendum that lies behind that. It
:15:09. > :15:09.is not possible? We are confident we can get Article 50 triggered by the
:15:10. > :15:17.end of the month. One of the other Lords amendments
:15:18. > :15:21.will be to have a meaningful vote on the Brexit deal when it is done at
:15:22. > :15:26.the end of the process, what is your view on that? What would you
:15:27. > :15:31.understand by a meaningful vote? The Government has already said there is
:15:32. > :15:37.going to be a meaningful vote at the end of the process. What do you mean
:15:38. > :15:41.by a meaningful vote? The parliament will get the opportunity to vote on
:15:42. > :15:44.the deal before it finishes the EU level process of going to
:15:45. > :15:51.consideration by the European Parliament. Parliament will be given
:15:52. > :15:57.a choice, as I understand, for either a vote for the deal you have
:15:58. > :16:02.negotiated or we leave on WTO rules and crash out anyway, is that what
:16:03. > :16:07.you mean by a meaningful choice? Parliament will get the choice to
:16:08. > :16:11.vote on the deal, but I think you have put your finger on the problem
:16:12. > :16:18.with trying to write something into the bill because any idea that the
:16:19. > :16:25.PM's freedom to negotiate is limited, any idea that if the EU 27
:16:26. > :16:29.were to play hardball, that somehow that means parliament would take
:16:30. > :16:32.fright, reverse the referendum verdict and set aside the views of
:16:33. > :16:37.the British people, that would almost guarantee that it would be
:16:38. > :16:43.much more difficult to get the sort of ambitious mutually beneficial
:16:44. > :16:47.deal for us and the EU 27. Your idea of a meaningful vote in parliament
:16:48. > :16:52.is the choices either to vote to accept this deal or we leave anyway,
:16:53. > :16:59.that is your idea of a meaningful vote. The Article 50 process is
:17:00. > :17:04.straightforward. There is the position of both parties in the
:17:05. > :17:13.recent Supreme Court case that the Article 50 process once triggered is
:17:14. > :17:18.irrevocable. That is in the EU Treaty already but we are saying
:17:19. > :17:25.very clearly that Parliament will get that right to debate and vote. I
:17:26. > :17:29.think the problem with what some in the House of Lords are proposing, I
:17:30. > :17:34.hope it is not a majority, is that the amendments they would seek to
:17:35. > :17:37.insert would tie the Prime Minister's hands, limit and
:17:38. > :17:40.negotiating freedom and put her in a more difficult position to negotiate
:17:41. > :17:45.on behalf of this country than should be the case. One year ago you
:17:46. > :17:49.said it could take six to eight years to agree a free-trade deal
:17:50. > :17:55.with the EU. Now you think you can do it in two, what's changed your
:17:56. > :18:09.mind? There is a very strong passionate supporter of Remain, as
:18:10. > :18:13.you know. I hope very much we are able to conclude not just the terms
:18:14. > :18:19.of the exit deal but the agreement that we are seeking on the long-term
:18:20. > :18:25.trade relationship... I understand that, but I'm trying to work out,
:18:26. > :18:30.what makes you think you can do it in two years when only a year ago
:18:31. > :18:35.you said it would take up to wait? The referendum clearly makes a big
:18:36. > :18:41.difference, and I think that there is an understanding amongst real the
:18:42. > :18:48.other 27 governments now that it is in everybody's interests to sort
:18:49. > :18:53.this shared challenge out of negotiating a new relationship
:18:54. > :18:56.between the EU 27 and the UK because European countries, those in and
:18:57. > :19:05.those who will be out of the EU, share the need to face up to massive
:19:06. > :19:08.challenges like terrorism and technological change. All of that
:19:09. > :19:11.was pretty obvious one year ago but we will see what happens. Thank you,
:19:12. > :19:13.David Lidington. Now, the Sunday Politics has had
:19:14. > :19:16.sight of a major new report The thousand-page study,
:19:17. > :19:21.which researchers say is the most comprehensive ever produced,
:19:22. > :19:27.analyses all 269 Islamist telated terrorist offences
:19:28. > :19:30.committed between 1998-2015. Most planned attacks were,
:19:31. > :19:31.thankfully, thwarted, but what can we learn
:19:32. > :19:33.from those offences? For the police and the intelligence
:19:34. > :19:43.agencies to fight terror, Researchers at the security think
:19:44. > :19:50.tank The Henry Jackson Society gave us early access to their huge
:19:51. > :20:00.new report which analyses every Islamism related attack
:20:01. > :20:02.and prosecution in the UK since 1998, that's 269 cases
:20:03. > :20:06.involving 253 perpetrators. With issues as sensitive
:20:07. > :20:09.as counterterrorism and counter radicalisation, it is really
:20:10. > :20:11.important to have an evidence base from which you draw
:20:12. > :20:13.policy and policing, This isn't my opinion,
:20:14. > :20:18.this the facts. This chart shows the number
:20:19. > :20:20.of cases each year combined with a small number
:20:21. > :20:25.of successful suicide attacks. Notice the peak in the middle
:20:26. > :20:27.of the last decade around the time of the 7/7 bombings
:20:28. > :20:31.in London in 2005. Offences tailed off,
:20:32. > :20:34.before rising again from 2010, when a three-year period accounted
:20:35. > :20:37.for a third of all the terrorism cases since the researchers
:20:38. > :20:42.started counting. What we are seeing is a combination
:20:43. > :20:46.of both more offending, in terms of the threat increasing,
:20:47. > :20:49.we know that from the security services and police statements,
:20:50. > :20:52.but also I believe we are getting more efficient in terms
:20:53. > :20:54.of our policing and we are actually A third of people were found to have
:20:55. > :21:03.facilitated terrorism, that's providing encouragement,
:21:04. > :21:06.documents, money. About 18% of people
:21:07. > :21:09.were aspirational terrorists, 12% of convictions were related
:21:10. > :21:15.to travel, to training And 37% of people were convicted
:21:16. > :21:23.of planning attacks, although the methods have
:21:24. > :21:27.changed over time. Five or six years ago,
:21:28. > :21:31.we saw lots of people planning or attempting pipe bombs and most
:21:32. > :21:34.of the time they had Inspire magazine in their possession,
:21:35. > :21:37.that's a magazine, an Al-Qaeda English-language online
:21:38. > :21:39.magazine that had specific More recently we have seen
:21:40. > :21:44.Islamic State encouraging people to engage in lower tech knife
:21:45. > :21:47.beheading, stabbings attacks and I think that's why we have
:21:48. > :21:50.seen that more recently. Shasta Khan plotted with her
:21:51. > :21:54.husband to bomb the Jewish In 2012 she received
:21:55. > :21:59.an eight-year prison sentence. She's one of an increasing
:22:00. > :22:04.number of women convicted of an Islamism related offence
:22:05. > :22:06.although it is still overwhelmingly a crime carried out
:22:07. > :22:10.by men in their 20s. Despite fears of foreign terrorists,
:22:11. > :22:12.a report says the vast Most have their home in London,
:22:13. > :22:21.around 43% of them. 18% lived in the West Midlands,
:22:22. > :22:24.particularly in Birmingham, and the north-west is another
:22:25. > :22:26.hotspot with around 10% Richard Dart lived in Weymouth
:22:27. > :22:33.and tried to attend a terrorist He was a convert to Islam, as were
:22:34. > :22:42.60% of the people in this report. He was a convert to Islam, as were
:22:43. > :22:46.16% of the people in this report. Like the majority of cases,
:22:47. > :22:48.he had a family, network. What's particularly interesting
:22:49. > :22:51.is how different each story is in many ways,
:22:52. > :22:54.but then within those differences So your angry young men,
:22:55. > :23:02.in the one sense inspired to travel, seek training and combat experience
:23:03. > :23:09.abroad, and then the older, recruiter father-figure types,
:23:10. > :23:11.the fundraising facilitator types. There are types within
:23:12. > :23:14.this terrorism picture, but the range of backgrounds
:23:15. > :23:20.and experiences is huge. And three quarters of those
:23:21. > :23:22.convicted of Islamist terrorism were on the radar of the authorities
:23:23. > :23:25.because they had a previous criminal record, they had
:23:26. > :23:29.made their extremism public, or because MI5 had them
:23:30. > :23:34.under surveillance. To discuss the findings of this
:23:35. > :23:41.report are the former Security Minister Pauline Neville-Jones,
:23:42. > :23:44.Talha Ahmad from the Muslim Council of Britain, and Adam Deen
:23:45. > :23:59.from the anti-extremist group The report finds the most segregated
:24:00. > :24:05.Muslim community is, the more likely it is to incubate Islamist
:24:06. > :24:09.terrorists, what is the MCB doing to encourage more integrated
:24:10. > :24:13.communities? Its track record on calling for reaching out to the
:24:14. > :24:17.wider society and having a more integrated and cohesive society I
:24:18. > :24:23.think is a pretty strong one, so one thing we are doing for example very
:24:24. > :24:27.recently I've seen we had this visit my mosque initiative, the idea was
:24:28. > :24:30.that mosques become open to inviting people of other faiths and their
:24:31. > :24:36.neighbours to come so we were encouraged to see so many
:24:37. > :24:42.participating. It is one step forward. Is it a good thing or a bad
:24:43. > :24:47.thing that in a number of Muslim communities, the Muslim population
:24:48. > :24:50.is over 60% of the community? I personally and the council would
:24:51. > :24:54.prefer to have more mixed communities but one of the reason
:24:55. > :24:59.they are heavily concentrated is not so much because they prefer to but
:25:00. > :25:04.often because the socio- economic reality forces them to. But you
:25:05. > :25:08.would like to see less segregation? Absolutely, we would prefer more
:25:09. > :25:13.diverse communities around the country. What is your reaction to
:25:14. > :25:17.that? Will need more diverse communities but one of the
:25:18. > :25:21.challenges we have right now with certain organisations is this
:25:22. > :25:24.pushback against the Government, with its attempts to help young
:25:25. > :25:30.Muslims not go down this journey of extremism. One of those things is
:25:31. > :25:33.the Prevent strategy and we often hear organisations like the MCB
:25:34. > :25:39.attacking the strategy which is counter-productive. What do you say
:25:40. > :25:44.to that? Do we support the Government have initiatives to
:25:45. > :25:49.counteract terrorism, of course we do. Do you support the Prevent
:25:50. > :25:55.strategy? We don't because it scapegoats an entire community. The
:25:56. > :25:59.report shows that contrary to a lot of lone wolf theories and people
:26:00. > :26:03.being radicalised in their bedrooms on the Internet that 80% of those
:26:04. > :26:23.convicted had connections with the extremist groups. Indeed 25% willing
:26:24. > :26:29.to Al-Muhajiroun. I think this report, which is a thorough piece of
:26:30. > :26:34.work, charts a long period and it is probably true to say that in the
:26:35. > :26:37.earlier stages these organisations were very important, of course
:26:38. > :26:43.subsequently we have had direct recruiting by IS one to one over the
:26:44. > :26:47.Internet so we have a mixed picture of how people are recruited but
:26:48. > :26:51.there's no doubt these organisations are recruiting sergeants. You were
:26:52. > :27:00.once a member of one of these organisations, are we doing enough
:27:01. > :27:09.to thwart them? If we just focus on these organisations, we will fail.
:27:10. > :27:12.We -- the question is are we doing enough to neutralise them? The
:27:13. > :27:18.Government strategy is in the right place, but where we need to focus on
:27:19. > :27:23.is the Muslim community or communities. The Muslim community
:27:24. > :27:28.must realise that these violent extremists are fringe but they share
:27:29. > :27:31.ideas, a broad spectrum of ideas that penetrate deeply within Muslim
:27:32. > :27:36.communities and we need to tackle those ideas because that is where it
:27:37. > :27:43.all begins. Are you in favour of banning groups like Al-Muhajiroun?
:27:44. > :27:48.Yes, it was the right thing to do and I can tell you the community has
:27:49. > :27:55.moved a long way, Al-Muhajiroun does not have support. Do you agree with
:27:56. > :28:03.that? Yes, but it is very simplistic attacking Al-Muhajiroun. ISIS didn't
:28:04. > :28:07.bring about extremism, extremism brought about ISIS, ISIS is just the
:28:08. > :28:12.brand and if we don't deal with the ideological ideas we will have other
:28:13. > :28:19.organisations popping up. The report suggests that almost a quarter of
:28:20. > :28:24.Islamist the latest offences were committed by individuals previous
:28:25. > :28:29.unknown to the security services. And this is on the rise, these
:28:30. > :28:31.numbers. This would seem to make an already difficult task for our
:28:32. > :28:38.intelligence services almost impossible. Two points. It is over
:28:39. > :28:46.80% I think were known, but it shows the intelligence services and police
:28:47. > :28:51.have got their eyes open. But the trend has been towards more not on
:28:52. > :28:57.the radar. That has been because the nature of the recruitment has also
:28:58. > :29:04.changed and you have much more ISIS inspired go out and do it yourself,
:29:05. > :29:09.get a knife, do something simple, so we have fewer of the big
:29:10. > :29:18.spectaculars that ISIS organised. Now you have got locally organised
:29:19. > :29:22.people, two or three people get together, do something together,
:29:23. > :29:29.very much harder actually to get forewarning of that. That is where
:29:30. > :29:35.intelligence inside the community, the community coming to the police
:29:36. > :29:41.say I'm worried about my friend, this is how you get ahead of that
:29:42. > :29:44.kind of attack. Should people in the Muslim community who are worried
:29:45. > :29:48.about individuals being radicalised, perhaps going down the terrorist
:29:49. > :29:54.route, should they bring in the police? Absolutely and we have been
:29:55. > :29:58.consistent on telling the community that wherever they suspect someone
:29:59. > :30:02.has been involved in terrorism or any kind of criminal activity, they
:30:03. > :30:10.should call the police and cooperate. As the so-called
:30:11. > :30:11.caliphate collapses in the Middle East, how worried should we be about
:30:12. > :30:25.fighters returning here? Extremely worried. They fall into
:30:26. > :30:29.three categories. You have ones who are disillusioned about Islamic
:30:30. > :30:31.State. You have ones who are disturbed, and then you have the
:30:32. > :30:37.dangerous who have not disavowed their ideas and who will have great
:30:38. > :30:44.reasons to perform attacks. What do we do? Anyone who comes back, there
:30:45. > :30:50.should be evidence looked into if they committed any crimes. But all
:30:51. > :30:54.those categories should all be be radicalised. You cannot leave them
:30:55. > :31:00.alone. Will we be sure if we know when they come back? That is
:31:01. > :31:07.difficult to say. They could come in and we might not know. There is a
:31:08. > :31:14.watch list so you have got a better chance. And you can identify them?
:31:15. > :31:17.This is where working with other countries is absolutely crucial and
:31:18. > :31:22.our border controls need to be good as well. I am not saying and the
:31:23. > :31:26.government is not saying that anyone would ever slip through, but it is
:31:27. > :31:32.our ability to know when somebody is coming through and to stop them at
:31:33. > :31:36.the border has improved. An important question. Given your
:31:37. > :31:43.experience, how prepared are away for a Paris style attack in a
:31:44. > :31:48.medium-size, provincial city? The government has exercised this one.
:31:49. > :31:52.It started when I was security minister and it has been taken
:31:53. > :31:56.seriously. The single biggest challenge that the police and the
:31:57. > :31:59.Army says will be one of those mobile, roving attacks. You have to
:32:00. > :32:04.take it seriously and the government does. All right, we will leave it
:32:05. > :32:08.Now, Brexit may have swept austerity from the front pages,
:32:09. > :32:10.but the deficit hasn't gone away and the government is still
:32:11. > :32:14.Just this week Whitehall announced that government departments have
:32:15. > :32:18.been told to find another ?3.5bn worth of savings by 2020.
:32:19. > :32:21.Last November the Independent office for Budget Responsibility
:32:22. > :32:24.said the budget deficit would be ?68 billion in the current
:32:25. > :32:29.It would still be ?17 billion by 2021-22.
:32:30. > :32:32.On Wednesday the Chancellor is expected to announce
:32:33. > :32:37.that the 2016-17 deficit has come in much lower than the OBR forecast.
:32:38. > :32:41.Even so, the government is still aiming for the lowest level
:32:42. > :32:46.of public spending as a percentage of national income since 2003-4,
:32:47. > :32:49.coupled with an increase in the tax burden to its highest
:32:50. > :32:55.So spending cuts will continue with reductions in day-to-day
:32:56. > :32:58.government spending accelerating, producing a real terms cut of over
:32:59. > :33:05.But capital spending, investment on infrastructure
:33:06. > :33:09.like roads, hospitals, housing, is projected to grow,
:33:10. > :33:15.producing a 16 billion real terms increase by 2021-22.
:33:16. > :33:19.The Chancellor's task on Wednesday is to keep these fiscal targets
:33:20. > :33:22.while finding some more money for areas under serious
:33:23. > :33:29.pressure such as the NHS, social care and business rates.
:33:30. > :33:33.We're joined now by Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
:33:34. > :33:40.Welcome back to the programme. In last March's budget the OBR
:33:41. > :33:45.predicted just over 2% economic growth for this year. By the Autumn
:33:46. > :33:50.Statement in the wake of the Brexit vote it downgraded back to 1.4%. It
:33:51. > :33:56.is now expected to revise that back around to 2% as the Bank of England
:33:57. > :34:01.has again. It is speculated on the future. It looks like we will get a
:34:02. > :34:06.growth forecast for this year not very different from where it was a
:34:07. > :34:09.year ago. What the bank did was upgrade its forecast for the next
:34:10. > :34:14.year or so, but not change very much. It was thinking about three or
:34:15. > :34:19.four years' time, which is what really matters. It looked like the
:34:20. > :34:23.OBR made a mistake in downgrading the growth in the Autumn Statement
:34:24. > :34:28.three months ago. It was more optimistic than nearly all the other
:34:29. > :34:35.forecasters and the Bank of England. It was wrong, but not as wrong as
:34:36. > :34:38.everybody else. We don't know, but if it significantly upgraded its
:34:39. > :34:45.growth forecast for the next three or four years, I would be surprised.
:34:46. > :34:49.It also added 12 billion to the deficit for the current financial
:34:50. > :34:55.year in the Autumn Statement, compared with March. It looks like
:34:56. > :34:59.that deficit will probably be cut again by about 12 billion compared
:35:00. > :35:03.to the last OBR forecast. It is quite difficult to make economic
:35:04. > :35:09.policy on the basis of changes of that skill every couple of months.
:35:10. > :35:14.That is one of the problems about having these two economic event so
:35:15. > :35:17.close together. My guess is the number will come out somewhere
:35:18. > :35:21.between the budget and the Autumn Statement numbers. There was a nice
:35:22. > :35:26.surprise for the Chancellor last month which looked like tax revenues
:35:27. > :35:30.were coming in a lot more strongly than he expected. But again the real
:35:31. > :35:34.question is how much is this making a difference in the medium run? Is
:35:35. > :35:40.this a one-off thing all good news for the next several years? If
:35:41. > :35:44.growth and revenues are stronger, perhaps not as strong as the good
:35:45. > :35:48.news last month, but if they are stronger than had been forecast in
:35:49. > :35:54.the Autumn Statement, what does that mean for planned spending cuts? It
:35:55. > :35:58.probably does not mean very much. Let's not forget the best possible
:35:59. > :36:02.outcome of this budget will be that for the next couple of years things
:36:03. > :36:06.look no worse than they did a year ago and in four years out they will
:36:07. > :36:10.still look a bit worse, and in addition Philip Hammond did increase
:36:11. > :36:16.his spending plans in November. However good the numbers look in a
:36:17. > :36:21.couple of days' time, we will still be borrowing at least 20 billion
:36:22. > :36:28.more by 2020 than we were forecasting a year ago. Still quite
:36:29. > :36:34.constrained. George Osborne wanted to get us to budget surplus by 2019.
:36:35. > :36:39.That has gone. Philip Hammond is quite happy with a big deficit and
:36:40. > :36:44.is not interested in that. But what he is thinking to a large extent, as
:36:45. > :36:49.you have made clear, there is a lot of uncertainty about the economic
:36:50. > :36:53.reaction over the next three or four years. He says he wants some
:36:54. > :36:58.headroom. If things go wrong, I do not want to announce more spending
:36:59. > :37:01.cuts or more tax rises to keep the deficit down. I want to say things
:37:02. > :37:07.have gone wrong for now and we will borrow. And I have got some money in
:37:08. > :37:13.the kitty. He will not spend a lot of it now. I understand the
:37:14. > :37:18.Chancellor is worried about the erosion of the tax base and it is
:37:19. > :37:24.hard to put VAT up by more than 20%, millions have been taken out of
:37:25. > :37:29.income tax, only 46% of people pay income tax, fuel duty is frozen for
:37:30. > :37:32.ever, corporation tax has been cut, the growth in self-employed has
:37:33. > :37:38.reduced revenues, is that a real concern? These are all worries for
:37:39. > :37:43.him. We have as you said in the introduction to this, got a tax
:37:44. > :37:48.burden which is rising very gradually, but it is rising to its
:37:49. > :37:52.highest level since the mid-19 80s, but is not doing it through
:37:53. > :37:56.straightforward increases to income tax. Lots of bits of pieces of
:37:57. > :38:02.insurance premium tax is here and the apprenticeship levied there, and
:38:03. > :38:07.that is higher personal allowance of income tax and a freeze fuel duty,
:38:08. > :38:12.but at some point we will have to look at the tax system as a whole
:38:13. > :38:19.and ask if we can carry on like this. We will have to start increase
:38:20. > :38:26.fuel duties again, or look to those big but unpopular taxes to really
:38:27. > :38:32.keep that money coming in to keep the challenges we will have over the
:38:33. > :38:37.next 30 years. He is going to set up a commission on social care. He has
:38:38. > :38:38.had quite a few commissions on social care. Thank you for being
:38:39. > :38:40.with us. It's just gone 11.35,
:38:41. > :38:42.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:38:43. > :38:45.in Scotland who leave us now Coming up here in twenty
:38:46. > :38:53.minutes, the Week Ahead. In the East Midlands,
:38:54. > :38:55.the campaigners fighting for a change in the law on domestic
:38:56. > :38:59.violence, and more help to persuade I mean, I knew it was wrong,
:39:00. > :39:06.and I was ashamed that I was... in my mind, I was allowing it
:39:07. > :39:09.to happen to myself. So, I was embarrassed
:39:10. > :39:12.to talk about it. And what would you put
:39:13. > :39:15.in the Budget? We've got two very
:39:16. > :39:17.different points of view. If we are going to be world beaters,
:39:18. > :39:20.then we need more businesses to take advantage of opportunities
:39:21. > :39:22.which come out of As far as the East Midlands
:39:23. > :39:27.is concerned, it is to make sure that the economic growth benefits
:39:28. > :39:30.every region of the country, Hello, I'm Marie Ashby,
:39:31. > :39:36.and my guests this week - Edward Argar is the Conservative MP
:39:37. > :39:37.for Charnwood, and Paddy Tipping is the Labour
:39:38. > :39:40.Police and Crime Commissioner First, let's look at this week's
:39:41. > :39:45.report from Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary,
:39:46. > :39:49.that some forces are putting the public at risk by rationing how
:39:50. > :39:54.they respond to emergency calls. The report said some forces
:39:55. > :39:57.were downgrading the importance of 999 calls to justify
:39:58. > :40:01.slower response times. It said three forces,
:40:02. > :40:03.including Nottinghamshire, had not been responding
:40:04. > :40:08.appropriately to emergency calls. So, Paddy Tipping,
:40:09. > :40:10.as Nottinghamshire's Police and Crime Commissioner,
:40:11. > :40:12.is this true, your force in Nottinghamshire has not been
:40:13. > :40:14.reacting appropriately What is true is that the control
:40:15. > :40:20.room is sometimes under You have to take the most important,
:40:21. > :40:38.most vital calls first. And against that, we have got
:40:39. > :40:41.to recognise that the police have lost resources,
:40:42. > :40:43.25% of their resources So you are saying that is
:40:44. > :40:46.the reason why they cannot Nationally, the HMIC,
:40:47. > :40:49.who produced the report, say budgets are being cut,
:40:50. > :40:52.we've got to make some tough decisions about priorities,
:40:53. > :40:54.and we need to have a debate with the public about what those
:40:55. > :40:56.priorities should be. Well, Nottinghamshire has been rated
:40:57. > :40:58."requires improvement", you set the budget for the force
:40:59. > :41:01.and its priorities, you knew that the force
:41:02. > :41:03.was underperforming in 2015. You surely now have to take
:41:04. > :41:05.responsibility for this? We do take responsibility,
:41:06. > :41:07.and if you look at the report from the Inspectorate,
:41:08. > :41:09.it says since they did the inspection in September,
:41:10. > :41:12.and number of things have happened. What it also says, in terms
:41:13. > :41:15.of serious and organised crime, In terms of investigation,
:41:16. > :41:22.Nottingham is good. What it says on the front page
:41:23. > :41:26.is that during the period the HMIC were doing the report,
:41:27. > :41:29.crime went down in Nottinghamshire by 6.3%, but it went up in the rest
:41:30. > :41:37.of the country by 7.8%. OK, well, Edward Argar,
:41:38. > :41:41.the Inspectorate said that British policing was in a perilous state
:41:42. > :41:44.and that it said it was a consequence of rationing
:41:45. > :41:47.of services because of cuts. Your government says that police
:41:48. > :41:50.spending is protected, but it comes, let's face it,
:41:51. > :41:54.after five years of deep cuts. Well, police spending
:41:55. > :41:57.is protected, and actually, it's interesting to note,
:41:58. > :42:00.I think it was a BBC analysis of this report yesterday which said
:42:01. > :42:03.that the report doesn't actually say what is responsible for some
:42:04. > :42:06.of the issues that are identified, they are saying this isn't possible
:42:07. > :42:09.to say whether it is down to funding, or operational
:42:10. > :42:11.decisions by Commissioners And actually, Paddy makes
:42:12. > :42:17.a very good point there. Crime is coming down,
:42:18. > :42:20.it is coming down in his force, and he quite rightly takes some
:42:21. > :42:24.of the credit for that, it is coming So, yes, resourcing is tight,
:42:25. > :42:36.but that police funding has been protected and we are seeing
:42:37. > :42:38.considerable amounts of innovation from our police,
:42:39. > :42:40.in Nottinghamshire, in Leicestershire
:42:41. > :42:41.and across the region. That is clearly good to know,
:42:42. > :42:43.but the Inspectorate also said that policing
:42:44. > :42:45.in Leicestershire needs improving. As a Leicestershire MP,
:42:46. > :42:47.aren't you worried about that? Well, I met just last
:42:48. > :42:49.week with the Police and Crime Commissioner,
:42:50. > :42:51.Willy Bach, and the Chief Constable from Leicestershire,
:42:52. > :42:53.to talk about funding and funding priorities, but also about
:42:54. > :42:56.what the work they are doing... Is requiring improvement
:42:57. > :42:57.good enough? The Chief Constable has been very
:42:58. > :42:59.clear that significant And as Paddy says, in the same way
:43:00. > :43:06.as with Nottinghamshire, since that report was published,
:43:07. > :43:08.or since that work was done and the investigation was done,
:43:09. > :43:10.considerable improvement has been made, and all these forces are
:43:11. > :43:14.working extremely hard to do that. What is important, I think, and it
:43:15. > :43:19.applies to all of our county forces, is even under the current funding
:43:20. > :43:22.formula, which we do not think actually allocates funding
:43:23. > :43:25.as fairly as it could, we are not talking about the overall
:43:26. > :43:29.size of the pot, we are talking about how it is shared out,
:43:30. > :43:32.and we are arguing that our forces are not getting our fair
:43:33. > :43:34.share of that nationally. OK, well, worryingly,
:43:35. > :43:36.briefly, Paddy, one of the things that was mentioned
:43:37. > :43:38.about the Nottinghamshire force, rated inadequate on protecting
:43:39. > :43:40.people vulnerable from harm It is a damning indictment,
:43:41. > :43:45.isn't it, if you can't even protect the most vulnerable
:43:46. > :43:47.in your communities And the issue is about how
:43:48. > :43:55.Nottinghamshire Police We will go on to talk
:43:56. > :44:02.about that in a second. Other forces go straight to a case
:44:03. > :44:08.conferencing system. Well, next, a campaign which began
:44:09. > :44:16.here in the East Midlands, designed to raise the profile
:44:17. > :44:18.of domestic abuse, Volunteers are making a patchwork
:44:19. > :44:23.quilt, representing hundreds of women who died as a result
:44:24. > :44:27.of domestic violence. Organisers have had contributions
:44:28. > :44:30.from across the world, and to mark International Women's Day
:44:31. > :44:32.on Wednesday, it will be presented It's a small gathering at a house
:44:33. > :44:40.in Nottinghamshire that is reaching out across
:44:41. > :44:42.the world. Each patch represents a woman killed
:44:43. > :44:47.as a result of domestic violence. Patches have been sent
:44:48. > :44:50.to the project from France, At the end of last year,
:44:51. > :44:55.the femicide census came out, and the statistics it contained
:44:56. > :44:58.and the number of women who had been Just thought there needed to be some
:44:59. > :45:04.way to make these women more than just statistics,
:45:05. > :45:06.to actually bring out the names The idea behind the quilt
:45:07. > :45:10.is to acknowledge the people behind the statistics,
:45:11. > :45:12.but some of these figures One in four women will be
:45:13. > :45:17.abused by a partner, ex or family member at some point
:45:18. > :45:21.during their lives. On average, two women a week die
:45:22. > :45:25.from domestic violence. And women suffering from a violent
:45:26. > :45:28.partner are four times more likely to tell a friend
:45:29. > :45:32.than call the police. It was a friend that Emma Bradford
:45:33. > :45:36.reached out to when her abusive He would leave bruises on my arms,
:45:37. > :45:41.small bruises, where he had pushed me around or thumped me
:45:42. > :45:44.or things like that. I never made any attempt
:45:45. > :45:49.to cover them up. I suppose, in a way,
:45:50. > :45:52.I wanted people to see, and reach out to me,
:45:53. > :45:54.and ask me, because I could I started becoming more
:45:55. > :46:01.timid, more reserved, I had my eyes closed
:46:02. > :46:10.and I was screaming at the time, so I don't know whether it was
:46:11. > :46:14.a punch or a slap, I don't know, I had a nosebleed and I think
:46:15. > :46:18.when he saw the blood, he panicked, and then he,
:46:19. > :46:22.all of a sudden, "I didn't mean to do it,
:46:23. > :46:28.don't call the police." Emma is happy in a new relationship,
:46:29. > :46:33.but has taken part in the project to honour the women
:46:34. > :46:35.unable to escape. I'm really lucky to be
:46:36. > :46:38.where I am right now. By remembering the names
:46:39. > :46:41.of the ladies who have been killed, it just highlights what an epidemic
:46:42. > :46:46.it really is. They plan to tour the country
:46:47. > :46:49.with the finished quilt, and it has already inspired
:46:50. > :46:53.a similar project in America. Well, I'm joined now
:46:54. > :46:55.by Melanie Jeffs, the manager of the Nottingham Women's Centre,
:46:56. > :46:58.who gave evidence to Parliament It made me go cold, just thinking
:46:59. > :47:05.that each square of that quilt that we just saw represents
:47:06. > :47:08.one woman's death, And we heard in that film,
:47:09. > :47:13.domestic violence, domestic abuse, Um, sadly, I would say yes,
:47:14. > :47:20.and I think particularly when you look at it
:47:21. > :47:22.as part of a continuum So, the work that we have done
:47:23. > :47:27.around misogyny hate crime and street harassment that women
:47:28. > :47:29.face, we know that about 85% One in four women experience
:47:30. > :47:33.domestic abuse at some point in their life,
:47:34. > :47:36.and one in five, sexual violence. And when you put all that together,
:47:37. > :47:40.I think it is very hard not to call OK, and this isn't just violence
:47:41. > :47:44.abuse, not just abuse against women, it takes many different forms,
:47:45. > :47:47.and in many cases, it is something that takes sometimes a long time
:47:48. > :48:00.for people to realise it is actually They accept things and they will
:48:01. > :48:04.give things without realising how serious it is moving on to beat.
:48:05. > :48:09.Absolutely, because we understand the domestic abuse is often
:48:10. > :48:12.underpinned by course of control. It is about power, domination, and it
:48:13. > :48:16.is often hard for women to understand that it is happening to
:48:17. > :48:20.them, are for people around them to see this and it can take a long time
:48:21. > :48:26.for women to be able to seek help and get the help they need. Paddy
:48:27. > :48:30.Tipping, research has said abused women are four times more likely to
:48:31. > :48:34.relate their experiences and tell them to a friend rather than go to
:48:35. > :48:38.the police. That is obviously understandable because it is so
:48:39. > :48:42.personal and emotional, so raw that they would go to a friend. But what
:48:43. > :48:47.more can the police do to help and support those people? We can do what
:48:48. > :48:52.we are doing at the moment, there is a 24-hour helpline in
:48:53. > :48:56.Nottinghamshire run by women, people want advice, they should go there.
:48:57. > :49:02.In our police stations as as well as police officers to investigate, we
:49:03. > :49:07.have women, independent advisers, and look, if you are in trouble,
:49:08. > :49:13.come and seek help. Leaving your family, leaving a partner is a big
:49:14. > :49:17.step. Maybe you will not do it first time, but get on the road. You
:49:18. > :49:20.mentioned the triage earlier and one of the things that stopped Emma from
:49:21. > :49:22.going to the police was that she did not know what that process would
:49:23. > :49:27.involve. Supper anyone is watching involve. Supper anyone is watching
:49:28. > :49:32.who might be in a similar position, can you explain what happens from
:49:33. > :49:36.the moment the woman is brave enough to come forward, and report to the
:49:37. > :49:41.police? It is up to the woman to break the choices. There are various
:49:42. > :49:45.things they could do. We could get an injunction to get the abusive
:49:46. > :49:50.partner out of the house, we are fortunate in Nottinghamshire that
:49:51. > :49:55.refuge provision has been kept up. But there are lots of sources of
:49:56. > :50:01.advice. It is tough when you are in that situation, but there are loads
:50:02. > :50:04.of people to help and support you. At work, Theresa May recently
:50:05. > :50:08.announced she is overseeing the creation of new laws which would
:50:09. > :50:14.deal with domestic violence and a new act which would help and work
:50:15. > :50:18.better for victims. That is obviously a way forward. But doesn't
:50:19. > :50:23.all of this depend on funding to help support those victims and
:50:24. > :50:31.funding the refuges and people like, organisations like Women's Aid? I
:50:32. > :50:35.sat in Parliament earlier this week for a debate on International
:50:36. > :50:39.Women's Day and it was chilling when one of my Labour colleagues, Jess
:50:40. > :50:43.Phillips, read out the names of all those women who had died at the
:50:44. > :50:48.hands of violent and aggressive men in the past year since that debate,
:50:49. > :50:52.including of course my own former colleague, Jo Cox. And I think
:50:53. > :50:58.Melanie is right to highlight the skill of the challenge. But it does
:50:59. > :51:02.all depend on funding, doesn't it? You are right to highlight the Prime
:51:03. > :51:08.Minister's work on this, but as Home Secretary and as Prime Minister. For
:51:09. > :51:13.her, this is a hugely personal and important issue and pirated. And it
:51:14. > :51:16.has been, she has Home Secretary oversaw new legislation around
:51:17. > :51:21.controlling and coercive behaviour, and violence is not just physical,
:51:22. > :51:26.it is meant as well. In terms of the funding, that does play a part and
:51:27. > :51:32.we have now got relatively recently announced increased funding for
:51:33. > :51:38.this, up to around 80 million in total. But equally it is about
:51:39. > :51:43.reporting it, how about tackling it. -- 18 million. Melanie, you manage a
:51:44. > :51:48.women's centre, are you getting enough funding? I think in terms of
:51:49. > :51:52.Nottingham, I think in Nottingham General, we have weathered the cuts.
:51:53. > :51:55.I think we have survived. The issue we are experiencing locally is that
:51:56. > :52:00.there is a higher level of need. Even though funding remains steady,
:52:01. > :52:04.we are seeing women coming in with more complex issues. A lot more
:52:05. > :52:07.issues around mental health. So the need is Highers of the matter of
:52:08. > :52:10.resources we need to put into supporting the women has also
:52:11. > :52:16.increased but the funding does not always follow. It is encouraging
:52:17. > :52:18.that will be an injection of around ?100,000 into Nottingham to help
:52:19. > :52:24.organisations deliver services to those kind of complex cases. Do you
:52:25. > :52:27.feel politicians generally are taking this issue more seriously?
:52:28. > :52:33.You described it as an epidemic, are they taking it more seriously? There
:52:34. > :52:36.is a growing recognition of the need to take this seriously. I think
:52:37. > :52:39.generally one issue is the public awareness is still quite low and
:52:40. > :52:43.when there are murders of women, the way that it is often reported means
:52:44. > :52:48.that people do not see it as part of a pattern, we do not always join the
:52:49. > :52:51.dots. They are displayed as isolated incidents and it is only when New
:52:52. > :52:57.Year summerlike Jess Phillips reading at the names in Parliament
:52:58. > :53:00.that you see these are connected on it is coming from that power and
:53:01. > :53:04.control, and for a woman to leave is difficult and can be very dangerous,
:53:05. > :53:07.we need people to understand that. If you have been affected by any of
:53:08. > :53:15.the issues we have been discussing, you can find help and advice on the
:53:16. > :53:19.BBC website. And that quilt with the names of the victims of domestic
:53:20. > :53:22.violence is being taken to Parliament on Wednesday, but as well
:53:23. > :53:26.as being International Women's Day, there is also the small matter of a
:53:27. > :53:29.Budget to be unveiled on Monday as well. So what will be in that for
:53:30. > :53:38.the East Midlands and what would you want to see? We asked two people to
:53:39. > :53:41.give us their opinion. I am Natalie from the Federation Of Small
:53:42. > :53:43.Businesses, Nottingham Schone -- Nottinghamshire And Yorkshire
:53:44. > :53:49.Region. I would deliver pro-business budget. I am here today to meet one
:53:50. > :53:52.of our members who is leading the way.
:53:53. > :53:56.BOOING the immediate thing that is
:53:57. > :54:03.happening is the workplace pension. -- The emergency -- the immediate
:54:04. > :54:08.thing. I am the Midlands regional secretary for the TUC. If I was
:54:09. > :54:11.Chancellor, minorities for this Budget would be rebalancing the
:54:12. > :54:16.economy to make sure it works for you. There is wealth creation, but
:54:17. > :54:20.it is in limited places. In the East Midlands, we are lagging behind. An
:54:21. > :54:24.economic strategy we see as important and essential for the
:54:25. > :54:28.future strength of the economy as far as the East Midlands concern is
:54:29. > :54:32.to make sure that the economic growth benefits every region of the
:54:33. > :54:35.country, not just London and the South East. If I was Chancellor the
:54:36. > :54:44.first thing I would do is tackle the rising costs of implement. The
:54:45. > :54:49.average business is set to CDs rise by ?2600. Infrastructure is
:54:50. > :54:53.essential, the electrification of the mainline is key and overdue. The
:54:54. > :54:57.skills agenda has got to be addressed to make sure we can have
:54:58. > :55:00.companies and large employers like Toyota staying in the region
:55:01. > :55:05.following Brexit. The East Midlands is a low skill economy based on
:55:06. > :55:08.insecure work, we have got to make sure the jobs that come to this
:55:09. > :55:12.region are high skilled and we have the workforce to match. If we are to
:55:13. > :55:15.be world beaters, we need more businesses to take advantage of
:55:16. > :55:19.opportunities which come out of research and develop them. If I was
:55:20. > :55:23.Chancellor I would make sure more businesses were aware of Government
:55:24. > :55:26.schemes like the research and development tax credits
:55:27. > :55:29.opportunities. For the next part of our Budget we would follow through
:55:30. > :55:34.on the commitment to having workers on board is. It was made by the
:55:35. > :55:41.Prime Minister very early. It seems you get the best out of the work
:55:42. > :55:44.forced by having zero hours contracts, we do not think that is
:55:45. > :55:47.right or fair will stop having workers on the boards would lead to
:55:48. > :55:53.better transparency to make sure they could question things and the
:55:54. > :55:59.direction their companies took. Also in my Budget box, I would like to
:56:00. > :56:02.introduce the delay to making attached digital, quarterly
:56:03. > :56:05.reporting should not be rolled out until businesses have a chance to
:56:06. > :56:11.understand the impact and cost indications.
:56:12. > :56:18.So, tonight different views. Lee was saying the East Midlands has a
:56:19. > :56:21.low-wage economy. -- two different. Thing we have already seen
:56:22. > :56:26.significant progress made, we have the national leading -- living wage.
:56:27. > :56:36.And in the East Midlands we have seen 188,000 new jobs created since
:56:37. > :56:40.2010. Are they high wage jobs? Low-mac you have 2.8 million new
:56:41. > :56:47.country. Of those, 75% are full-time country. Of those, 75% are full-time
:56:48. > :56:53.permanent jobs. Only 3% are zero hours contracts. I appreciate that
:56:54. > :56:57.Lee had a point to make but I do not think those statistics bear out what
:56:58. > :57:01.you're saying. Paddy, you have to admit, there some positives right
:57:02. > :57:06.now for the economy, growth is up, unemployment in the region is done,
:57:07. > :57:11.is the Government on the right track? I think the big thing now is
:57:12. > :57:16.Brexit, this is the first Budget since the referendum, and although
:57:17. > :57:20.there are some signs of success, there are signs of weakness as well.
:57:21. > :57:22.The strength of the plan, for example, inflation, that is
:57:23. > :57:25.increasing. We also talked about increasing. We also talked about
:57:26. > :57:31.public services, funding for the police here in Nottingham, A is in
:57:32. > :57:37.crisis. But the big issue is around social care. The Chancellor has made
:57:38. > :57:41.some extra money available, he needs to do much, much more. Not just in
:57:42. > :57:47.the short-term, but we need to have a long-term solution. For a
:57:48. > :57:53.long-term problem? A long-term problem that all the political
:57:54. > :57:57.parties signed up to. Natalie was worried about the extra costs of
:57:58. > :58:03.employing people with the living wage, the increases in National
:58:04. > :58:05.Insurance, various pension schemes for people employed. It doesn't
:58:06. > :58:13.sound like a very business friendly Government. We have seen under the
:58:14. > :58:16.Government from 2010, for example, very business friendly measures, for
:58:17. > :58:23.example the reduction in corporation tax, from that height of 20% down to
:58:24. > :58:28.20%, and by 2020 it will be done to 17%. That is one very tangible
:58:29. > :58:33.measure that makes a difference when it comes to a business, not only
:58:34. > :58:40.surviving, but expanding and investing. Earlier this week, I was
:58:41. > :58:44.at a fantastic business in my constituency who are a packaging
:58:45. > :58:49.company, they employ over 100 people and they are looking to employ more.
:58:50. > :58:53.They are a real success story. Paddy, what would you like to see in
:58:54. > :58:58.this Budget, apart from rises brought in these budgets? I would
:58:59. > :59:05.like to see the business of zero which is contracts sorted out,
:59:06. > :59:08.Sports Direct is a real issue, there have been caught cases recently,
:59:09. > :59:12.there is a need for legislation and we need to tackle it, I hope the
:59:13. > :59:17.living wage goes up, I suspect it will, and I very much hope that the
:59:18. > :59:22.Chancellor will resist the temptation to bring down the top
:59:23. > :59:24.rate of income tax. OK, advert, will there be anything in this Budget
:59:25. > :59:29.particularly for the East Midlands to look forward to? I think what we
:59:30. > :59:33.have seen an budgets are measures that support the East Midlands
:59:34. > :59:37.engine, the sort of industry and growth we have here. It is a
:59:38. > :59:41.difficult balance in any Budget. You have to remember we had brought down
:59:42. > :59:47.the budget deficit from over 10% that we inherited in 2010 to 3.5%.
:59:48. > :59:50.But it still means we are spending more as a country that we are
:59:51. > :59:53.bringing in income tax and we need to balance getting that deficit down
:59:54. > :59:58.further and I think the Chancellor has opposed that, whilst also
:59:59. > :00:02.encouraging and stimulating business. And Paddy is right when he
:00:03. > :00:06.talked about one of the big issues, we need to work cross party to
:00:07. > :00:10.OK. Time now for a round-up of some OK. Time now for a round-up of some
:00:11. > :00:21.of the other political stories from the East Midlands.
:00:22. > :00:24.Plans to electrify the Midland Main Line have been thrown into doubt by
:00:25. > :00:30.a highly critical report from MPs. The Public Accounts Committee looked
:00:31. > :00:33.at the electrification of the Great Western railway and said it was an
:00:34. > :00:37.example of how not to handle a major body. It said the flaws could have
:00:38. > :00:41.an impact on electrify the Midland Main Line.
:00:42. > :00:45.Derby City Council has condemned the Unison Mac union after meeting to
:00:46. > :00:49.discuss a strike by ditching support staff was broken up by Proteas. The
:00:50. > :00:54.council said the union should suspend strikes. Unison says it
:00:55. > :00:59.stands on a solidarity. Ken Clarke has become the new Father
:01:00. > :01:03.of the House. This means the former Chancellor and Home Secretary is now
:01:04. > :01:06.the longest serving MP. It was the biggest event of its
:01:07. > :01:14.kind, Westminster register big reaction. The Amat publicity
:01:15. > :01:18.estimated to be worth almost 500,000 Bas Dost by University report than
:01:19. > :01:25.50 million saw or read about the courage.
:01:26. > :01:30.And that is the Sunday Politics here in the East Midlands. Eggy to Edward
:01:31. > :01:35.Parker and Paddy Tipping. Next week, my guests will be Heather Wheeler
:01:36. > :01:38.and Lillian Greenwood. Lillian spent to date at a firefighter in
:01:39. > :01:41.Nottinghamshire as part of a plan to find out more about life on the
:01:42. > :01:45.front line four hour emergency services. She has certainly looking
:01:46. > :01:48.the part! We will be finding out how she got on and if you got hold out
:01:49. > :01:51.any fires next need Crossrail as well. We will be
:01:52. > :01:53.poring over the entrails of the budget next week. Thank you very
:01:54. > :01:59.much indeed. So the Brexit Bill is back in
:02:00. > :02:04.the Lords next week and the Lib Dems They've ordered pizza and camp beds
:02:05. > :02:07.to encourage their peers to keep talking all night,
:02:08. > :02:11.only to be told by the Lord's authorities that their plans fall
:02:12. > :02:23.foul of health and safety laws. Laws that they probably voted for.
:02:24. > :02:26.What did you make of David Liddington's remarks on the Lords
:02:27. > :02:31.amendments, particularly not just the one on EU nationals, but on what
:02:32. > :02:38.is regarded as a meaningful vote at the end of the process? Let's be
:02:39. > :02:41.clear, as ministers like to say, the meaningful vote vote is by far the
:02:42. > :02:48.biggest thing that will happen in Parliament. It puts EU citizens into
:02:49. > :02:54.a tiny corner. It will decide not just who is going to have the final
:02:55. > :02:59.say on this, but who the EU is negotiating with. Is it directly
:03:00. > :03:02.with Theresa May or is it with Parliament? Who will decide the
:03:03. > :03:10.shape of Brexit, Parliament or Theresa May? The Lords amendment is
:03:11. > :03:14.just the first chapter. They have voiced Theresa May to give them a
:03:15. > :03:19.veto on everything she does, and there is a possible chance in the
:03:20. > :03:26.Commons could uphold this amendment. The meaningful vote amendment? The
:03:27. > :03:30.meaningful vote amendment. But is it a meaningful vote if the choice is
:03:31. > :03:37.to either back the deal or crash out of the deal? That is what the remain
:03:38. > :03:42.supporting MPs or hardline people who want to remain fear. What they
:03:43. > :03:48.want is the power to be able to send Theresa May back to the negotiating
:03:49. > :03:52.table. Why is that anathema to many Brexit supporters? They believed it
:03:53. > :03:57.would crucially and critically undermine Theresa May's negotiating
:03:58. > :04:01.hand and also create a long period of uncertainty for business. There
:04:02. > :04:06.is already great uncertainty and this could extend it. The
:04:07. > :04:12.government's position is in there was a proper, meaningful vote which
:04:13. > :04:17.Parliament could reject what was on offer, that would be an incentive to
:04:18. > :04:22.the EU to give us a bad deal? I think that is the fear. If you are
:04:23. > :04:25.saying to the people you are negotiating with that that is
:04:26. > :04:30.another authority and Theresa May will have to go back and have all of
:04:31. > :04:34.this approved, I think it would have a very significant undermining
:04:35. > :04:40.effect on her negotiating hand. Things change from day to day. We
:04:41. > :04:46.are talking about 2019 and 2018 at the earliest, but if the government
:04:47. > :04:54.lost a vote on the Brexit deal, would he not have to call in someone
:04:55. > :05:00.else? That is why the vote will be meaningful even if the amendment on
:05:01. > :05:05.this meaningful vote will be lost. You cannot do a deal on something as
:05:06. > :05:11.historic as Brexit and have Parliament against you. So, whatever
:05:12. > :05:18.form this vote takes, whenever it happens, it will be hugely
:05:19. > :05:23.meaningful. Whatever label that is given and if she lost it she would
:05:24. > :05:29.call a general election. She could not impose it. To call a general
:05:30. > :05:33.election now you need a majority of MPs which she will not have, so
:05:34. > :05:37.maybe she will not get her election after all. It would be very unlike
:05:38. > :05:41.Labour not to vote for an election. It would be very unlike Labour not
:05:42. > :05:44.to vote for an election. The elections to Stormont have given
:05:45. > :05:47.a boost to the republicans and put the long term status
:05:48. > :05:49.of Northern Ireland in some doubt. Sinn Fein's leader Gerry Adams
:05:50. > :05:51.spoke to reporters Yesterday was in many,
:05:52. > :05:57.many ways a watershed election, and we have just started a process
:05:58. > :06:01.of reflecting what it all means, but clearly the union's majority
:06:02. > :06:16.in the Assembly has been ended, and the notion of a permanent
:06:17. > :06:29.or a perpetual unionist majority Is he right? Is this a watershed?
:06:30. > :06:34.The nationalist vote in the assembly will now come to 39 and the
:06:35. > :06:39.Unionists 38. It is only one member, but it is significant. This is a
:06:40. > :06:43.very serious moment and because of everything else going on with Donald
:06:44. > :06:47.Trump and Brexit it is taking a while for people here to realise
:06:48. > :06:53.just how significant this is. Talking to someone who only recently
:06:54. > :06:56.left a significant role in Northern Ireland politics last night, they
:06:57. > :07:01.said they were very worried about what this means. It is likely there
:07:02. > :07:05.will be a call for some kind of international figure to chair the
:07:06. > :07:10.talks to try and see if there is a way of everybody working together.
:07:11. > :07:14.All sides will probably try to extract more money from the
:07:15. > :07:19.Treasury, but it is a very dangerous moment. Should we regard Michelle
:07:20. > :07:23.O'Neill, who has replaced Mr McGuinness as the leader, it is she
:07:24. > :07:32.the First Minister death probably not quite. An interesting thought.
:07:33. > :07:37.Indeed, the daughter of an IRA man, a fascinating concept in itself. But
:07:38. > :07:43.there are are still a large amount of MLAs who will not give Sinn Fein
:07:44. > :07:47.what they need. But what effect does this have on the legacy of the
:07:48. > :07:51.prosecutions and the great witchhunts which the British
:07:52. > :07:58.Government has vowed to end. There is a majority left on the Stormont
:07:59. > :08:01.assembly to end those. But some would keep them going for time
:08:02. > :08:10.continuing, which is a headache for Theresa May. You have now got 27
:08:11. > :08:14.Sinn Fein members, 28 DUP, then the SDLP bumps up the numbers a little
:08:15. > :08:19.bit. You have got the British Government transfixed with Brexit
:08:20. > :08:24.which has huge implications for the border between North and South in
:08:25. > :08:30.Ireland, and the Irish government is pretty wavering as well and if there
:08:31. > :08:33.is an election there, Sinn Fein could do well in the Dublin
:08:34. > :08:38.parliament as well. There are a lot of moving pieces. There are and
:08:39. > :08:42.there is a danger that we look at everything through the prism of
:08:43. > :08:48.Brexit, but I found Friday and this weekend fascinating. Theresa May and
:08:49. > :08:52.Scotland were Nicola Sturgeon is framing Brexit entirely through an
:08:53. > :08:57.argument to have a second referendum on independence which she wants to
:08:58. > :09:04.hold it she possibly can. And the Irish situation with the prospect of
:09:05. > :09:11.a hard border with Northern Ireland voting majority to remain, quite a
:09:12. > :09:18.substantial majority, again a few of the instability at the moment. That
:09:19. > :09:22.We will be keeping an eye on it for sure.
:09:23. > :09:24.Yesterday, US President Donald Trump tweeted allegations
:09:25. > :09:26.that his predecessor, Barack Obama, had ordered
:09:27. > :09:29.his phones to be tapped during the election campaign.
:09:30. > :09:32."Terrible!", Trump wrote, "Just found out that Obama
:09:33. > :09:36.had my "wires tapped" in Trump Tower just before the victory.
:09:37. > :09:49.I'm not quite sure what McCarthyism that is.
:09:50. > :09:52.He followed up with a series of tweets comparing it to Watergate.
:09:53. > :09:58."How low has President Obama gone to tap my phones during the very
:09:59. > :10:11.The sacred election process, I think at one stage he said it was a dodgy
:10:12. > :10:12.election process, but now it is sacred.
:10:13. > :10:25.You are frightened to go to bed at night, you do not know what you are
:10:26. > :10:30.going to wake up to. Completely uncharted territory here. Little
:10:31. > :10:33.more than a month ago at the inauguration they were making the
:10:34. > :10:40.veneer of small talk and politely shaking hands. He saw Barack Obama
:10:41. > :10:47.and Michelle off on the helicopter. You do not know what is coming next.
:10:48. > :10:52.Is there a scintilla of evidence to back up Donald Trump's claims? Yes,
:10:53. > :10:56.there is, although he is very muddled about it all. I will
:10:57. > :11:09.explain. Remember what happened to Mike Flynn, talking to the Russian
:11:10. > :11:14.and Ambassador will stop they were listening. Barack Obama does not
:11:15. > :11:18.sign of warrants, but somebody else did. So why on earth would you not
:11:19. > :11:26.want to listen to the president elect himself in case he might also
:11:27. > :11:30.be breaking the law. Does that sound to you like convincing evidence or
:11:31. > :11:35.just a supposition? I think Tom should go and work for him, that is
:11:36. > :11:40.the most credible interpretation I have heard for a long time. Start
:11:41. > :11:45.tweeting the case for the tweet. What is interesting about this is my
:11:46. > :11:50.theory is he does not really like the idea of being a president. That
:11:51. > :11:56.wild press conference he gave a couple of weeks ago there was one ad
:11:57. > :12:01.lib that did not get repeated which was, I suppose I am a politician
:12:02. > :12:05.now, as if he was humiliated at the idea of being a president. He likes
:12:06. > :12:10.being the businessman with a swagger tweeting around the clock. And
:12:11. > :12:16.campaigning again. He keeps going to what looked like campaign rallies. I
:12:17. > :12:19.disagree with you about him not liking being president. I think he
:12:20. > :12:24.loves the idea of being the president, but the reality is so
:12:25. > :12:27.frustrating on every level, finding he does not have unlimited room for
:12:28. > :12:32.manoeuvre and so many things have been put in place to stop them doing
:12:33. > :12:35.things he would do in the business environment. We have had two more
:12:36. > :12:41.tweets from him this morning, I guess when he woke up. Who was it
:12:42. > :12:43.who secretly said to the Russian president, tell Vladimir that after
:12:44. > :12:52.the election I will have more flexibility? Who was that? Possibly
:12:53. > :12:56.Hillary Clinton. Is it true the Democratic National committee would
:12:57. > :13:00.not allow the FBI access to check server or other equipment after
:13:01. > :13:05.learning it was hacked? Can that be possible? This was all an issue in
:13:06. > :13:10.the campaign. He is now a president. Shall I point out the flaw in Tom's
:13:11. > :13:13.theory. They were not bugging Michael Flynn's phone, it was the
:13:14. > :13:23.Russian Ambassador's telephone they were barking. Mr Neil, I would never
:13:24. > :13:27.contradict you on this programme. But if you suspect there was
:13:28. > :13:34.criminal activity going on, as there was by Michael Flynn, why would you
:13:35. > :13:39.not want to put on a tap? I don't know. That is it for today.
:13:40. > :13:42.I'll be back next week here on BBC One at 11am as usual.
:13:43. > :13:45.The Daily Politics is back tomorrow at midday on BBC Two.
:13:46. > :14:35.But remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.
:14:36. > :14:39.The thing that's so clear is that it's 100% honest.
:14:40. > :14:42.We're right in the middle of the action.