:00:36. > :00:39.It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:40. > :00:42.The Government has insisted that Gibraltar will not be bargained
:00:43. > :00:47.But the territory's chief minister says the EU's proposal
:00:48. > :00:52.After a momentous week, Britain's journey out
:00:53. > :00:56.Can the Prime Minister satisfy her critics at home
:00:57. > :01:01.We speak to the former Conservative leader, Michael Howard.
:01:02. > :01:04.And we have the lowdown on next month's local elections -
:01:05. > :01:08.what exactly is up for grabs, who's going up and who's going down?
:01:09. > :01:10.And in the East Midlands: Ready for liftoff -
:01:11. > :01:12.Leicester plans to become a leader in the space industry,
:01:13. > :01:14.creating hundreds of highly paid jobs.
:01:15. > :01:18.And who will win next month's council elections?
:01:19. > :01:20.changing their minds. MPs from opposing sides give the view from
:01:21. > :01:28.there constituencies. And with me, as always,
:01:29. > :01:31.the best and the brightest political panel in the business -
:01:32. > :01:33.Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott and Tom Newton Dunn who'll be
:01:34. > :01:38.tweeting throughout the programme. For the people of Gibraltar, Clause
:01:39. > :01:41.22 of the EU's draft negotiating guidelines came as something
:01:42. > :01:43.of a shock. The guidelines propose
:01:44. > :01:49.that the Government in Spain be given a veto over any future trade
:01:50. > :01:51.deal as it applies to The UK Government has reacted
:01:52. > :01:57.strongly, saying Gibraltar will not be bargained away
:01:58. > :01:59.in the Brexit talks. Here's the Defence Secretary,
:02:00. > :02:06.Michael Fallon, speaking We are going to look
:02:07. > :02:11.after Gibraltar. Gibraltar's going to be protected
:02:12. > :02:16.all the way, all the way, because the sovereignty of Gibraltar
:02:17. > :02:18.cannot be changed without the agreement of the people
:02:19. > :02:21.of Gibraltar and they have made it very clear they do not
:02:22. > :02:24.want to live under Spanish rule and it is interesting, I think,
:02:25. > :02:26.in the draft guidelines from the EU that Spain is not saying
:02:27. > :02:38.that the whole thing is subject Michael Fallon earlier. Steve, is
:02:39. > :02:43.this a Spanish power grab or much ado about nothing? It could be both.
:02:44. > :02:47.Clearly what is happening about this negotiation and will happen again
:02:48. > :02:52.and again is that at different points individual countries can
:02:53. > :02:59.start playing bargaining cards. They will say, if you want a deal, you
:03:00. > :03:04.have to deliver this, UK. Spain is doing it early. It might turn out to
:03:05. > :03:10.be nothing at all. It is an early example of how to delete recruit
:03:11. > :03:19.after Article 50 is triggered, the dynamic -- how after Article 50 is
:03:20. > :03:22.triggered, the dynamic changes. At certain points, any country can veto
:03:23. > :03:27.it. It gives them much more power than we have clocked so far. Donald
:03:28. > :03:33.Tusk, the head of the European Council, he went out of his way to
:03:34. > :03:36.say Britain mustn't deal by laterally, with individual
:03:37. > :03:42.countries, it has to deal with the EU as a block. Was it mischiefmaking
:03:43. > :03:50.to add this bit in about Spain? Those two things do not tally. I
:03:51. > :03:57.think on our part, when I say we, I mean the Foreign Office and Number
:03:58. > :04:00.10, we dropped the ball. By excluding Gibraltar from the letter
:04:01. > :04:05.of Article 50, they gave an opportunity to the Spanish to steal
:04:06. > :04:11.the narrative. Why this is important, presentation, things
:04:12. > :04:16.looked like they were going quite well for Theresa May when she handed
:04:17. > :04:19.over the letter, for a few hours, and suddenly, you have this
:04:20. > :04:25.incredible symbolism of Gibraltar. For Brexiteers, the idea that there
:04:26. > :04:30.could be some kind of diminishment or failure in relation to Gibraltar,
:04:31. > :04:34.it would be a very symbolic illustration of things not going
:04:35. > :04:39.entirely to plan. Forget the detail, it does not look great. Gibraltar
:04:40. > :04:44.got mentions in the white paper. They did not get a mention in the
:04:45. > :04:49.Article 50 notification. Do you think the British Government did not
:04:50. > :04:52.see this coming? To be honest, I do not think it would make a bit of
:04:53. > :04:58.difference. Theresa May could have an entire chapter in her letter to
:04:59. > :05:03.Donald Tusk and the Spanish and the EU would have still tried this on.
:05:04. > :05:08.For me, it was as much a point of symbolism than it was for any power
:05:09. > :05:13.grab. It was a good point to make. You need to know, Britain, you are
:05:14. > :05:17.not in our club, we will not have your interests at heart. Officials
:05:18. > :05:24.after the press conference, they went on to talk about it saying it
:05:25. > :05:31.is a territorial dispute. It is not! Gibraltar is British. It is very
:05:32. > :05:34.much a shot across the bow is. Whether it comes to pass, it is
:05:35. > :05:39.still yet to be seen. I feel we will be chasing hares like this for the
:05:40. > :05:45.next few years. There will be many other examples. They are greatly
:05:46. > :05:52.empowered by the whole process. Britain has not really got... It has
:05:53. > :05:55.got to wait and hear what their interpretation of Brexit is. They
:05:56. > :06:00.will negotiate, we will negotiate accordingly. I have some sympathy
:06:01. > :06:06.about the letter, the Article 50 letter. They agonised over it, so
:06:07. > :06:09.much to get right in terms of balance and tone. It would have been
:06:10. > :06:20.absurd to start mentioning Skegness and everything else. Why not!
:06:21. > :06:25.Skegness, what did they do? It is a real example of how the dynamic now
:06:26. > :06:29.changes. The Spanish royals are going to come here in a couple of
:06:30. > :06:35.months, that could be interesting. It will be good feelings breaking
:06:36. > :06:43.up, I am sure. -- breaking out. So, after a historic week,
:06:44. > :06:46.the UK is now very much But will it be a smooth
:06:47. > :06:50.journey to the exit door? Or can we expect
:06:51. > :06:52.a bit of turbulence? Are you taking back
:06:53. > :06:54.control, Prime Minister? Big days in politics usually
:06:55. > :06:56.involve people shouting and the Prime Minister getting
:06:57. > :06:58.in a car. It is only a few hundred metres
:06:59. > :07:01.from Downing Street to Parliament. But the short journey is the start
:07:02. > :07:04.of a much longer one and we do not know exactly
:07:05. > :07:09.where we will all end up. This is a historic moment
:07:10. > :07:11.from which there can Moments earlier, this Dear John,
:07:12. > :07:21.sorry, Dear Don letter, was delivered by Britain's
:07:22. > :07:23.ambassador in Brussels to the EU He seemed genuinely upset
:07:24. > :07:26.to have been jilted. Back in Westminster,
:07:27. > :07:32.hacks from around the world were trying to work out what it
:07:33. > :07:34.all meant for the So, here it is, a copy
:07:35. > :07:41.of the six-page letter The letter reaffirms the PM's
:07:42. > :07:48.proposal to have talks on the exit deal and a future trade deal
:07:49. > :07:50.at the same time. It also mentioned the word
:07:51. > :07:52."security" 11 times and stated a failure to reach agreement
:07:53. > :07:55.would mean cooperation in the fight against crime
:07:56. > :07:59.and terrorism would be weakened. Later, our very own Andrew got
:08:00. > :08:02.to ask her what would happen if Britain left the European
:08:03. > :08:08.policing agency, Europol. We would not be able to access
:08:09. > :08:12.information in the same way as we would as a member,
:08:13. > :08:15.so it is important, I think, we are able to negotiate
:08:16. > :08:17.a continuing relationship that enables us to work together
:08:18. > :08:20.in the way that we have. That night, the
:08:21. > :08:22.Brexiteers were happy. We did not have a Mad
:08:23. > :08:28.Hatter, but now we do. Down the street, even the Remainers,
:08:29. > :08:32.having a Mad Hatters' tea party, I am not sure that is
:08:33. > :08:40.actually Boris, though. The next morning, the papers
:08:41. > :08:55.suggested Theresa May would use security as a bargaining tool
:08:56. > :08:56.and threaten to withdraw the UK's cooperation in this area
:08:57. > :08:56.if no deal was struck. Downing Street denied it,
:08:57. > :08:56.as did the Brexit Secretary. We can both cope, but we
:08:57. > :08:59.will both be worse off. That seems to be a statement
:09:00. > :09:02.of fact, it is not a threat, David Davis had other
:09:03. > :09:05.business that morning, introducing the Great Repeal Bill,
:09:06. > :09:08.outling his plans to transfer all EU law into British
:09:09. > :09:10.law to change later, It is not without its critics
:09:11. > :09:15.but the Brexit Secretary said, among other benefits,
:09:16. > :09:17.it would make trade talks easier As we exit the EU and seek
:09:18. > :09:24.a new deep and special partnership with the European Union,
:09:25. > :09:27.we are doing so from a position where we have the same
:09:28. > :09:29.standards and rules. It will also ensure we deliver
:09:30. > :09:34.on our promise to end the supremacy of European Union law
:09:35. > :09:37.in the UK as we exit. There was, though, a small
:09:38. > :09:44.issue with the name. The Government hit an early hurdle
:09:45. > :09:47.with the Great Repeal Bill. Parliamentary draughtsmen said
:09:48. > :09:50.they were not allowed Great(!)
:09:51. > :09:57.so it is just the Repeal Bill. So far, it had been
:09:58. > :10:00.a tale of two cities. By Friday, there was another,
:10:01. > :10:04.Valletta in Malta, where EU leaders were having a meeting
:10:05. > :10:06.and President Tusk, yes, him again, set out draft guidelines
:10:07. > :10:12.for the EU Brexit strategy. Once, and only once,
:10:13. > :10:15.we have achieved sufficient progress on the withdrawal can we discuss
:10:16. > :10:18.the framework for our Starting parallel talks
:10:19. > :10:21.on all issues at the same time, as suggested by some in the UK,
:10:22. > :10:30.will not happen. The EU 27 does not and will not
:10:31. > :10:35.pursue a punitive approach. Brexit in itself is
:10:36. > :10:41.already punitive enough. The pressure on Theresa May to get
:10:42. > :10:44.the Brexit process going has now gone and the stage is being set
:10:45. > :10:47.elsewhere for the showdown But face-to-face discussions
:10:48. > :10:57.are not likely to happen Before May or early June. No one is
:10:58. > :11:03.celebrating just yet. We're joined now from Kent
:11:04. > :11:12.by the former Conservative The EU says it will not talk about a
:11:13. > :11:15.future relationship with the UK until there has been sufficient
:11:16. > :11:22.progress on agreeing the divorce bill. Should the UK agree to this
:11:23. > :11:28.phased approach? Well, I think you can make too much about the sequence
:11:29. > :11:33.and timing of the negotiations. I assume that it will be a case of
:11:34. > :11:37.nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and so any agreements that
:11:38. > :11:43.might be reached on things talked about early on will be very
:11:44. > :11:47.provisional, so I think you can make a big deal about the timing and the
:11:48. > :11:51.sequence when I do not think it really matters as much as all that.
:11:52. > :11:56.Don't people have a right in this country to be surprised of the talk
:11:57. > :11:59.of a massive multi-billion pound divorce settlement? I do not
:12:00. > :12:08.remember either side making much of this in the referendum, do you? No.
:12:09. > :12:11.A select committee of the House of Lords recently reported and said
:12:12. > :12:17.that there was no legal basis for any exit fee. We will have to see
:12:18. > :12:24.how the negotiations go. I think some of the figures cited so far are
:12:25. > :12:29.wildly out of kilter and wildly unrealistic. We will have to see
:12:30. > :12:33.what happens in the negotiations. As one of your panel commented earlier,
:12:34. > :12:37.there will be lots of hares to pursue over the next couple of years
:12:38. > :12:44.and we should not get too excited about any of them. Would you accept
:12:45. > :12:48.that we make... It may not be anything like the figures Brussels
:12:49. > :12:56.is kicking around of 50, 60 billion euros, do you think we will have to
:12:57. > :13:01.make a one-off settlement? If we get everything else we want, if we get a
:13:02. > :13:07.really good trade deal and access for the City of London and so on,
:13:08. > :13:10.speaking for myself, I would be prepared to make a modest payment.
:13:11. > :13:20.But it all depends on the deal we get. What would modest be? Oh, I
:13:21. > :13:24.cannot give you a figure. We are right at the start of the
:13:25. > :13:30.negotiations. I do not think that would be agreed until near the end.
:13:31. > :13:33.The EU says that if there is a transition period of several years
:13:34. > :13:38.after the negotiations, and there is more talk of that, the UK must
:13:39. > :13:42.remain subject to the free movement of peoples and the jurisdiction of
:13:43. > :13:47.the European Court of Justice, would that be acceptable to you? It
:13:48. > :13:51.depends on the nature of the transitional agreement. We are
:13:52. > :13:58.getting well ahead of ourselves here. You cannot, I think, for any
:13:59. > :14:01.judgment as to whether there should be a transitional stage until you
:14:02. > :14:06.know what the final deal is. If there is to be a final deal. And
:14:07. > :14:13.then you know how long it might take to implement that deal. That is
:14:14. > :14:17.something I think that it is really rather futile to talk about at this
:14:18. > :14:22.stage. It may become relevant, depending on the nature of the deal,
:14:23. > :14:26.and that is the proper time to talk about it and decide what the answer
:14:27. > :14:31.to the questions you pose might be. Except the EU has laid this out in
:14:32. > :14:37.its negotiation mandate and it is reasonable to ask people like
:14:38. > :14:42.yourself, should we accept that? It is reasonable for me to say, they
:14:43. > :14:45.will raise all sorts of things in their negotiating mandate and we do
:14:46. > :14:49.not need to form a view of all of them at this stage. Let me try
:14:50. > :14:52.another one. The EU says if they do agree what you have called a
:14:53. > :14:58.comprehensive free trade deal, we would have to accept EU constraints
:14:59. > :15:06.on state aid and taxes like VAT and corporation tax. Would you accept
:15:07. > :15:10.that? Again, I am not sure quite what they have in mind on that. We
:15:11. > :15:15.will be an independent country when we leave and we will make our own
:15:16. > :15:23.decisions about those matters. Not according to know that -- to the
:15:24. > :15:27.negotiating mandate. As I have said, they can put all sorts of things in
:15:28. > :15:32.the negotiating guidelines, it does not mean we have to agree with them.
:15:33. > :15:37.No doubt that is something we can discuss in the context of a free
:15:38. > :15:41.trade agreement. If we get a free trade agreement, that is very
:15:42. > :15:43.important for them as well as for us, and we can talk about some of
:15:44. > :15:55.the things you have just mentioned. Can you please leave a 20 without
:15:56. > :16:00.having repatriated full control of migration, taxis and the law? I
:16:01. > :16:07.think we will have repatriated all three of those things by the time of
:16:08. > :16:11.the next general election. How high would you rate the chances of no
:16:12. > :16:17.deal, and does that prospect worry you? I think the chances are we will
:16:18. > :16:21.get the deal, and I think the chances are we will get a good deal,
:16:22. > :16:29.because that is in the interests of both sides of this negotiation. But
:16:30. > :16:34.it is not the end of the world if we do not get a deal. Most trade in the
:16:35. > :16:38.world is carried out under World Trade Organisation rules. We would
:16:39. > :16:43.be perfectly OK if we traded with the European Union, as with
:16:44. > :16:46.everybody else, under World Trade Organisation rules. It is better to
:16:47. > :16:51.get the deal, and I think we will get the deal, because it is in the
:16:52. > :16:55.interests of both. Let me ask you about Gibraltar. You have campaigned
:16:56. > :17:00.in Gibraltar when the sovereignty issue came up under the Tony Blair
:17:01. > :17:05.government. The EU says that Spain should have a veto on whether any
:17:06. > :17:11.free-trade deal should apply to the Rock. How should the British
:17:12. > :17:16.government replied to that? As it has responded, by making it
:17:17. > :17:22.absolutely clear that we will stand by Gibraltar. 35 years ago this
:17:23. > :17:25.week, Andrew, another woman Prime Minister Centre task force is
:17:26. > :17:29.halfway across the world to protect another small group of British
:17:30. > :17:34.people against another Spanish-speaking country. I am
:17:35. > :17:38.absolutely clear that our current woman Prime Minister will show the
:17:39. > :17:49.same resolve in relation to Gibraltar as her predecessor did.
:17:50. > :17:51.This is not about Spain invading Gibraltar, it is not even about
:17:52. > :17:54.sovereignty, it is about Spain having a veto over whether any
:17:55. > :17:57.free-trade deal that the UK makes with the EU should also apply to
:17:58. > :18:03.Gibraltar. On that issue, how should the British government respond? The
:18:04. > :18:09.British government should show resolve. It is not in the interests
:18:10. > :18:13.of Spain, really, to interfere with free trade to Gibraltar. 10,000
:18:14. > :18:18.people who live in Spain working Gibraltar. That is a very important
:18:19. > :18:23.Spanish interest, so I am very confident that in the end, we will
:18:24. > :18:27.be able to look after all the interests of Gibraltar, including
:18:28. > :18:29.free trade. Michael Howard, thank you for joining us from Kent this
:18:30. > :18:32.morning. Although sometimes it seems
:18:33. > :18:34.like everyone has forgotten, there are things happening
:18:35. > :18:35.other than Brexit. In less than five weeks' time,
:18:36. > :18:38.there will be a round of important domestic elections and there's a lot
:18:39. > :18:42.up for grabs. Local elections take place
:18:43. > :18:44.on the 4th of May in England, In England, there are elections
:18:45. > :18:49.in 34 councils, with 2,370 The majority are county councils,
:18:50. > :18:56.usually areas of strength Large cities where Labour usually
:18:57. > :19:02.fares better are not Six regions of England will also
:19:03. > :19:06.hold elections for newly created combined authority mayors,
:19:07. > :19:09.and there will be contests for directly elected mayors,
:19:10. > :19:16.with voters in Manchester, Liverpool and the West Midlands
:19:17. > :19:18.among those going to the polls. In Scotland, every seat in all 32
:19:19. > :19:21.councils are being contested, many of them affected
:19:22. > :19:23.by boundary changes. Since these seats were last
:19:24. > :19:26.contested, Labour lost all but one Meanwhile, every seat in each
:19:27. > :19:31.of Wales' 22 councils All but one was last elected
:19:32. > :19:38.in 2012 in what was a very strong year for Labour,
:19:39. > :19:39.though independent candidates currently hold
:19:40. > :19:42.a quarter of council seats. According to the latest
:19:43. > :19:44.calculations by Plymouth University Election Centre,
:19:45. > :19:49.the Tories are predicted to increase their tally by 50 seats,
:19:50. > :19:52.despite being in government, But the dramatic story in England
:19:53. > :19:59.looks to be with the other parties, with the Lib-Dems possibly winning
:20:00. > :20:01.100 seats, while Ukip could be seeing a fall,
:20:02. > :20:06.predicted to lose 100 seats. Though the proportional system
:20:07. > :20:08.usually makes big changes less likely in Scotland,
:20:09. > :20:11.the SNP is predicted to increase both the number of seats
:20:12. > :20:14.they hold, and the number In Wales, Labour is defending a high
:20:15. > :20:23.water mark in support. Last year's Welsh Assembly elections
:20:24. > :20:25.suggest the only way is down, with all the parties making modest
:20:26. > :20:28.gains at Labour's expense. Joining me now is the BBC's
:20:29. > :20:30.very own elections guru, Professor John Curtice
:20:31. > :20:38.of the University of Strathclyde. Good to see you again. Let's start
:20:39. > :20:42.with England. How bad are the selection is going to be for Labour?
:20:43. > :20:46.Labourer not defending a great deal because this is for the most part
:20:47. > :20:51.rural England. The only control three of the council they are
:20:52. > :20:56.defending and they are only defending around 500 seats, I nearly
:20:57. > :20:59.a quarter are in one county, Durham. Labour's position in the opinion
:21:00. > :21:03.polls is weakened over the last 12 months and if you compare the
:21:04. > :21:15.position in the opinion polls now with where they were in the spring
:21:16. > :21:17.of 2013 when these seats in England were last fought, we are talking
:21:18. > :21:20.about a 12 point swing from Labour to conservative. The estimate of 50
:21:21. > :21:23.losses may be somewhat optimistic for Labour. Of the three council
:21:24. > :21:27.areas they control, two of them, Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire,
:21:28. > :21:31.could be lost, leaving labourer with virtually a duck as far as council
:21:32. > :21:35.control is concerned in these elections in England. In England,
:21:36. > :21:40.what would a Liberal Democrat reserve urgently great? That is the
:21:41. > :21:43.big question. We have had this picture since the EU referendum of
:21:44. > :21:47.the Liberal Democrats doing extraordinarily well in some local
:21:48. > :21:55.by-elections, gaining seats that they had not even fought before, and
:21:56. > :21:57.in other areas, doing no more than treading water. We are expecting a
:21:58. > :22:01.Liberal Democrat skin because the lost the lot -- the lost lots of
:22:02. > :22:05.ground when they were in coalition with the Conservatives. It is
:22:06. > :22:09.uncertain. A patchy performance may well be to their advantage. If they
:22:10. > :22:12.do well in some places and gain seats, and elsewhere do not do
:22:13. > :22:16.terribly well and do not waste votes, they may end up doing
:22:17. > :22:21.relatively well in seats, even if the overall gaining votes is likely
:22:22. > :22:52.to be modest. The elections for mayors, they are taking place in
:22:53. > :22:56.the Labour will that be a hefty consolation prize for the Labour
:22:57. > :22:57.Party? It ought to be, on Teesside, Merseyside, Greater Manchester. We
:22:58. > :23:00.are looking at one content very closely, that is the contest for the
:23:01. > :23:03.mayor of the West Midlands. If you look at what happened in the general
:23:04. > :23:05.election in 2015, labourer work nine points ahead of the Conservatives in
:23:06. > :23:08.the West Midlands. If you look at the swing since the general
:23:09. > :23:11.election, if you add that swing to where we were two years ago, the
:23:12. > :23:13.West Midlands now looks like a draw. Labour have to worry about a
:23:14. > :23:15.headline grabbing loss, and the West Midlands contest. If they were to
:23:16. > :23:18.lose, that wooden crate -- that would increase the pressure for
:23:19. > :23:21.their own Jeremy Corbyn to convince people that they can turn his
:23:22. > :23:27.party's fortunes around, and in truth at the moment, they are pretty
:23:28. > :23:31.dire. The West Midlands has Birmingham as its heart.
:23:32. > :23:36.Chock-a-block with marginal seats. It always has been. I always
:23:37. > :23:43.remember election night and marginal seats in the West Midlands.
:23:44. > :23:48.Scotland, the SNP is assaulting Labour's last remaining power base.
:23:49. > :23:54.The biggest prizes Glasgow. Will it take it, the SNP? Whether the SNP
:23:55. > :23:57.will gain control of Glasgow is uncertain. If you look at what is
:23:58. > :24:03.happening in local government by-elections let alone the opinion
:24:04. > :24:07.polls, in 2012, when these seats were last fought, Labour did
:24:08. > :24:11.relatively well, only one percentage point behind the SNP who were rather
:24:12. > :24:15.disappointed with the result compared to other elections. No sign
:24:16. > :24:24.of that happening this time alone -- this time around. Polls put the SNP
:24:25. > :24:26.ahead. By-elections have found the SNP advancing and Labour dropping by
:24:27. > :24:30.double digits. Labour are going to lose everything they currently
:24:31. > :24:34.control in Scotland, the SNP will become the dominant party, the
:24:35. > :24:38.question is how well they do. In Scotland there is a Conservative
:24:39. > :24:43.revival going on. The Conservatives did well in recent local government
:24:44. > :24:47.by-elections. At the moment, Labour are expected to come third north of
:24:48. > :24:53.the border in the local elections, repeating the third they suffered in
:24:54. > :24:56.the Holyrood elections last year. In Wales, Labour is expecting to lose
:24:57. > :25:02.control of a number of councils. They are the main party in 12 of 22
:25:03. > :25:06.local authorities. How bad could it be? We're expecting Labour to lose
:25:07. > :25:12.ground. In the opinion polls when these seats were last fought,
:25:13. > :25:16.labourer in the high 40s. Now they are not much above 30%. Cardiff
:25:17. > :25:22.could well join Glasgow was no longer being a Labour stronghold.
:25:23. > :25:24.Look out for Newport. Some of the South Wales councils that Labour
:25:25. > :25:40.control, Labour is probably too but occasionally, Plaid
:25:41. > :25:42.Cymru surprises in this area. They managed to win the Rhondda seat in
:25:43. > :25:45.the assembly elections. Jeremy Corbyn has said he wants to be
:25:46. > :25:47.judged on proper elections, council elections as opposed to opinion
:25:48. > :25:50.polls, but even if he does as badly as John has been suggesting, does it
:25:51. > :25:57.affect his leadership? I think it does on two counts. It will affect
:25:58. > :26:00.his own confidence. Anyone who is a human being will be affected by
:26:01. > :26:06.this. He might go into his office and be told by John McDonnell and
:26:07. > :26:12.others, stand firm, it is all right, but it will affect his confidence
:26:13. > :26:16.and inevitably it contributes to a sense that this is moving to some
:26:17. > :26:20.kind of denoument, at some point. In other words, while I understand the
:26:21. > :26:27.argument that he has won twice in a leadership contest, well, within 12
:26:28. > :26:34.months, I wonder whether this can carry on in a fixed term parliament,
:26:35. > :26:39.up until 2020, if it were to do so. On two France, it will have some
:26:40. > :26:44.impact. I am not seeing it will lead to his immediate departure, it will
:26:45. > :26:50.mark, but if these things are as devastating as John suggests, it
:26:51. > :26:55.will have an impact. Tom, I'll be looking at a Lib Dem fightback? That
:26:56. > :27:00.is the $64,000 question. It would seem that we should be. One massive
:27:01. > :27:04.reason we're not having a general election a time soon, apart from the
:27:05. > :27:07.fact that Theresa May does not believe in these things, she
:27:08. > :27:12.believes in pressing on, it is because Tory MPs in the South West
:27:13. > :27:15.who took the Lib Dem seats, they were telling Number 10 they were
:27:16. > :27:19.worried they were going to lose their seats back to the Lib Dems.
:27:20. > :27:24.The Lib Dems never went away and local government. They have got
:27:25. > :27:28.other campaigners and activists. It looks credible that they will be the
:27:29. > :27:32.success story of the whole thing. Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, he says
:27:33. > :27:39.this will be the most difficult local elections his party will face
:27:40. > :27:44.before 2020. A bit of management of expectations. It is unlikely to be a
:27:45. > :27:50.good time for Ukip. They are right to manage expectations. The results
:27:51. > :28:10.will be horrible for Ukip. I agree with Tom about the Lib Dem
:28:11. > :28:13.threat to the Tories. Talking to some senior figures within the Tory
:28:14. > :28:16.party earlier this week, I was picking up that they are worried
:28:17. > :28:18.about 30-40 general election seeds being vulnerable to the Lib Dems
:28:19. > :28:20.because of the Labour collapse. I would normally agree with Steve
:28:21. > :28:22.about the resilience of politicians, the capability of withstanding
:28:23. > :28:25.repeated blows, but Jeremy Corbyn is not in the normal category. I think
:28:26. > :28:27.he is, in the sense that although he get solace from winning leadership
:28:28. > :28:32.contest, anyone who leads a party into the kind of, it is not going to
:28:33. > :28:38.be that vivid, because they are not defending the key seats. If they
:28:39. > :28:43.were to win Birmingham, say, and get slaughtered by the SNP in Scotland,
:28:44. > :28:47.it will undermine what is already a fairly ambiguous sense of
:28:48. > :28:49.self-confidence. We need to leave it there. Thank you, John Curtice.
:28:50. > :28:52.Well, with those elections on the horizon, is Labour where it
:28:53. > :28:55.Former leader Ed Miliband was on the Andrew
:28:56. > :28:57.Marr Show earlier and he explained the challenge Labour faces
:28:58. > :29:02.It is easier for other parties, if you are the Greens or the
:29:03. > :29:04.Liberal Democrats you're essentially fishing in the 48% pool.
:29:05. > :29:09.If you are Ukip, you are fishing in the 52% pool.
:29:10. > :29:11.Labour is trying to do something much harder,
:29:12. > :29:13.which is to try and speak for the whole country,
:29:14. > :29:15.and by the way, that is another part of
:29:16. > :29:19.Our attack on Theresa May, part of it is she's
:29:20. > :29:25.Ignoring the verdict going into this, saying,
:29:26. > :29:27.let's overturn it, looks like ignoring the 52%.
:29:28. > :29:33.By the way, there is more that unites Remainers
:29:34. > :29:35.and Leavers than might first appear, because they share common
:29:36. > :29:40.concerns about the way the country is run.
:29:41. > :29:45.Joining me now is the Shadow Health Secretary, Jon Ashworth.
:29:46. > :29:50.Welcome to the programme. Alastair Campbell told me on the BBC on
:29:51. > :29:55.Thursday that he is fighting to reverse the referendum result. Ed
:29:56. > :30:02.Miliband says that Remain needs to accept the result, come to terms
:30:03. > :30:06.with it. Who is right? We have to accept the referendum result. I
:30:07. > :30:10.campaigned passionately to remain in the European Union. The city I
:30:11. > :30:15.represent, Leicester, voted narrowly to remain in the European Union.
:30:16. > :30:19.Sadly the country did not. We cannot overturn that and be like kinky
:30:20. > :30:24.nude, trying to demand the tide go back out. We have to accept this
:30:25. > :30:33.democratic process. We all voted to have a referendum when the relevant
:30:34. > :30:40.legislation came to Parliament. How bad will the local elections before
:30:41. > :30:47.Labour? Let us see where we get to on election night when I am sure I
:30:48. > :30:55.will be invited on to one of these types of programmes... The election
:30:56. > :30:59.date, the following day. But it does look like you will lose seats across
:31:00. > :31:04.the board in England, Scotland and Wales. What did you make of what
:31:05. > :31:09.Steve Richards said about the impact on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? We
:31:10. > :31:16.have to win seats, we cannot fall back on the scales suggested. No,
:31:17. > :31:23.your package was right, it tends to be Tory areas, but generally, we
:31:24. > :31:26.have to be winning in Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, those
:31:27. > :31:30.types of places because they contain a lot of the marginal constituencies
:31:31. > :31:36.that decide general elections. The important places in the elections
:31:37. > :31:43.are towns like Beeston, towns you have not heard of, but they are
:31:44. > :31:47.marginal towns in marginal swing constituencies. We have to do well
:31:48. > :31:51.in them. We will see where we are on election night but my pretty is to
:31:52. > :31:59.campaign hard in these areas over the next few weeks. Even people who
:32:00. > :32:04.voted Labour in 2015, they prefer Theresa May to Mr Corbyn as Prime
:32:05. > :32:09.Minister, a recent poll said. Isn't that extraordinary? I have not seen
:32:10. > :32:17.that. I will look it up. It was you Government. -- YouGov. It is
:32:18. > :32:22.important we win the trust of people. You are not winning the
:32:23. > :32:28.trust of people who voted for you in 2015. We have to hold onto people
:32:29. > :32:32.who voted for us in 2015 and we have to persuade people who voted for
:32:33. > :32:37.other parties to come to us. One of the criticisms I have of the debate
:32:38. > :32:41.that goes on in the wider Labour Party, do not misunderstand me, I am
:32:42. > :32:46.not making a criticism about an individual, but the debate you see
:32:47. > :32:51.online suggests that if you want to get people who voted Conservative to
:32:52. > :32:55.switch to Labour it is somehow a betrayal of our principles, it was
:32:56. > :33:01.not. Justin Trudeau said Conservative voters are our
:33:02. > :33:06.neighbours, our relatives. We have to persuade people to switch from
:33:07. > :33:14.voting Conservative to voting Labour as well as increasing our vote among
:33:15. > :33:18.nonvoters and Greens. It seems like you have a mountain to climb and the
:33:19. > :33:25.mountain is Everest. Another poll, I am not sure if you have seen this,
:33:26. > :33:34.in London, the Bastian of Labour, the Bastian of Remain, Mr Corbyn is
:33:35. > :33:40.less popular than even Ukip's Paul Nuttall. That is beyond
:33:41. > :33:44.extraordinary! I do not know about that. The most recent set of
:33:45. > :33:50.elections in London was the mayoral election where the Labour candidate
:33:51. > :33:56.city: won handsomely. He took the seat of a conservative. We took that
:33:57. > :34:08.of a conservative. It was a year ago. We did well then. You had an
:34:09. > :34:11.anti-Jeremy Corbyn candidate. I think he nominated Jeremy Corbyn,
:34:12. > :34:16.from memory. We have not got elections in London but our
:34:17. > :34:26.elections are in the county areas and the various mayoral elections...
:34:27. > :34:31.What about the West Midlands? In any normal year, mid-term, as the
:34:32. > :34:36.opposition, Labour should win the West Midlands. John Curtis says it
:34:37. > :34:41.is nip and tuck. It has always been a swing region but we want to do
:34:42. > :34:47.well, of course. We want to turn out a strong Labour vote in Dudley,
:34:48. > :34:53.Northampton, those sorts of places. They are key constituencies in the
:34:54. > :34:59.general election. Does Labour look like a government in waiting to you?
:35:00. > :35:04.What I would say is contrast where we are to what the conservative
:35:05. > :35:08.garment is doing. I asked you about Labour, you do not get to tell me
:35:09. > :35:12.about the Conservatives. Does it look like a government in waiting to
:35:13. > :35:16.you? Today we are exposing the Conservatives... Reminding people
:35:17. > :35:22.the Conservatives are breaking the pledge on waiting times of 18 weeks
:35:23. > :35:28.so lots of elderly people waiting longer in pain for hip replacements
:35:29. > :35:30.and cataract replacements. Yesterday the Housing spokesperson John Healey
:35:31. > :35:36.was exposing the shortcomings in the Help to Buy scheme. The education
:35:37. > :35:40.spokesperson has been campaigning hard against the cuts to schools.
:35:41. > :35:44.Tom Watson has been campaigning hard against some of the changes the
:35:45. > :35:48.Government want to introduce in culture. The Shadow Cabinet are
:35:49. > :35:53.working hard to hold the Government's feet to the fire. Does
:35:54. > :36:00.it look like a government in waiting? Yes. It took you three
:36:01. > :36:04.times! There is a social care crisis, schools funding issue, a
:36:05. > :36:08.huge issue for lots of areas, the NHS has just got through the winter
:36:09. > :36:16.and is abandoning many of its targets. You are 18 points behind in
:36:17. > :36:23.the polls. We have to work harder. What can you do? The opinion polls
:36:24. > :36:27.are challenging but we are a great Social Democratic Party of
:36:28. > :36:30.government. On Twitter today, lots of Labour activists celebrating that
:36:31. > :36:34.the national minimum wage has been in place for something like 16 years
:36:35. > :36:40.because we were in government. Look of the sweeping progressive changes
:36:41. > :36:45.this country has benefited from, the NHS, sure start centres, an assault
:36:46. > :36:50.on child poverty, the Labour Party got itself in contention for
:36:51. > :36:54.government. I entirely accept the polls do not make thrilling reading
:36:55. > :36:58.for Labour politicians on Sunday morning, but it means people like me
:36:59. > :37:01.have to work harder because we are part of something bigger than an
:37:02. > :37:05.individual, we are in the business of changing things for the British
:37:06. > :37:08.people and if we do not do that, if we do not focus on that, we are
:37:09. > :37:16.letting people down. Is Labour preparing for an early election
:37:17. > :37:22.question Billy burqa? Reports in the press of a war chest as macro for an
:37:23. > :37:26.early election? The general election coordinator called for a general
:37:27. > :37:29.election when Theresa May became Prime Minister. We are investing in
:37:30. > :37:35.staff and the organisational capability we need. By the way, the
:37:36. > :37:40.Labour Party staff do brilliant work. A bit of nonsense on Twitter
:37:41. > :37:43.having a go at them. They do tremendous work. Whenever the
:37:44. > :37:51.election comes, they will be ready. Jon Ashworth, thank you.
:37:52. > :38:06.In the East Midlands: elections on the way to choose
:38:07. > :38:10.But finding new ways of raising cash will be the first
:38:11. > :38:15.By 2020, the vast majority of the money for council services
:38:16. > :38:17.will come from the businesses of Derbyshire and the people
:38:18. > :38:27.of Derbyshire in the form of business rates and council tax.
:38:28. > :38:29.And the final frontier for the East Midlands economy -
:38:30. > :38:31.what will Leicester's new space park mean for jobs and investment?
:38:32. > :38:33.When we think of space, we think astronauts,
:38:34. > :38:42.It is making Leicester space city in the future.
:38:43. > :38:45.Hello, I am Marie Ashby, back down to work, with my guests
:38:46. > :38:47.this week, Mark Spencer, Conservative MP for Sherwood,
:38:48. > :38:49.and Graham Chapman, deputy leader of Nottingham City Council.
:38:50. > :39:07.But first, let's get an East Midlands perspective
:39:08. > :39:12.And, of course, that is the signing of article 50, formally
:39:13. > :39:17.Mark, you campaigned for Remain, do you know think that Brexit
:39:18. > :39:18.will benefit us here in the East Midlands?
:39:19. > :39:21.Yes, I think it is all about the deal now.
:39:22. > :39:24.We have fired the firing pistol to start us on the negotiations,
:39:25. > :39:27.it is now about the next two years and how the Prime Minister
:39:28. > :39:30.and her team can deliver the best deal that delivers the benefit
:39:31. > :39:32.to the East Midlands and to Nottinghamshire.
:39:33. > :39:34.But you think that it will benefit us here?
:39:35. > :39:37.I think it will, if we can get it right.
:39:38. > :39:41.There are two years of hard negotiation to make sure that deal
:39:42. > :39:44.benefits us here in the UK, but also keeps our relationship
:39:45. > :39:47.with our colleagues in Europe so that we can work with them over
:39:48. > :39:49.security and over defence and those sorts of issues
:39:50. > :39:51.that we want to cooperate with them on.
:39:52. > :39:53.Graham, the Local Government Association this week called
:39:54. > :39:56.for a bigger role for councils over what EU laws we would keep or scrap.
:39:57. > :39:59.Are there any laws in particular that are concerning you right now?
:40:00. > :40:02.The biggest concern is the amount of money that the EU puts
:40:03. > :40:04.into the East Midlands, and it is quite substantial.
:40:05. > :40:07.And people will say, we are paying already, aren't we,
:40:08. > :40:10.so we will just get our money back, but actually we get
:40:11. > :40:12.a disproportionate amount, because the EU, believe it or not,
:40:13. > :40:15.spends its money quite well, and in quite a targeted way.
:40:16. > :40:18.So there is going to be a lot of losses in research
:40:19. > :40:20.and development, in support for training and jobs, and that
:40:21. > :40:25.And that ?350 million, which is promised to the health
:40:26. > :40:28.service, which has been promised to farmers, which has been promised
:40:29. > :40:30.to universities and everybody else, is going to spread
:40:31. > :40:38.Can you guarantee, Mark Spencer, that your government
:40:39. > :40:43.I think it is about getting the deal right, for a start,
:40:44. > :40:47.making sure the economy continues to expand and grow, and that
:40:48. > :40:50.will give us the resources to invest in those things that really matter
:40:51. > :41:02.We can enter into this in a negative way or in a positive way.
:41:03. > :41:05.We talk about the EU laws, we're going to transfer all of those
:41:06. > :41:13.EU laws into UK laws, so that there is no, they are.
:41:14. > :41:16.And then we can start, as a UK Government, to decide
:41:17. > :41:18.what laws we want to keep, what we don't...
:41:19. > :41:20.But you can hear Graham Chapman saying that councils
:41:21. > :41:22.are concerned that that funding is going to be lost.
:41:23. > :41:26.I think there is always going to be change, but I think it is for local
:41:27. > :41:29.authorities to manage that, the government to manage and work
:41:30. > :41:31.with those local authorities and to get those decisions right
:41:32. > :41:34.in future, that's so different to what it's like today.
:41:35. > :41:35.You're going to have to just manage it?
:41:36. > :41:39.Well, there is a wider picture in this, it is not just the deal.
:41:40. > :41:41.We're going to start expanding and take a positive line,
:41:42. > :41:44.because that is what people have voted for, then we need to do
:41:45. > :41:48.We are one of the regions with the lowest productivity,
:41:49. > :41:50.and that is going to need a great deal of investment
:41:51. > :41:53.Toyota have already announced it's investing absolutely millions
:41:54. > :41:55.and millions in its plant in Derbyshire, Rolls-Royce have
:41:56. > :41:57.got contracts coming, they are looking for new staff.
:41:58. > :42:01.So there is quite a positive future there if we get this right.
:42:02. > :42:03.Funding for local government is always a big issue.
:42:04. > :42:05.It's about to take centre stage again.
:42:06. > :42:07.Voters head to the polls for next month's council elections.
:42:08. > :42:12.All of the seats are up for grabs in four of our county councils,
:42:13. > :42:14.and some of them could see nail-biting finishes, the closest
:42:15. > :42:16.fight is expected to be in Nottinghamshire.
:42:17. > :42:19.Labour are in charge there but there is no overall
:42:20. > :42:22.control - they have 32 seats, two short of the number
:42:23. > :42:25.In Derbyshire, Labour have an overall majority of ten seats.
:42:26. > :42:27.In Leicestershire, the Conservatives have a majority of three.
:42:28. > :42:30.In Lincolnshire, there is no overall control,
:42:31. > :42:35.but the Conservatives are the largest party, with 36 seats.
:42:36. > :42:38.But as we have been hearing, elections come against a backdrop
:42:39. > :42:40.of severe cuts to local government funding, and the pressure
:42:41. > :42:43.is on for our local councils to find new ways of raising cash.
:42:44. > :42:51.In Derbyshire, there is a hill to climb if you want to get
:42:52. > :42:55.to County Hall, but it is not just hard on your legs, it is hard
:42:56. > :42:59.For years, councils have survived on the Revenue Support Grant,
:43:00. > :43:02.that's millions of pounds of central government money to pay
:43:03. > :43:03.for essential local government services.
:43:04. > :43:09.But that stream of money is about to come to an end.
:43:10. > :43:12.Last year, all councils in England were told that the Revenue Support
:43:13. > :43:16.It will be cut over the next three years and eventually
:43:17. > :43:20.But what do you do when the money runs out?
:43:21. > :43:24.By 2020, the vast majority of the money for council services
:43:25. > :43:28.will come from the businesses of Derbyshire and the people
:43:29. > :43:31.of Derbyshire, in the form of business rates and council tax.
:43:32. > :43:39.A letter to all councils in England, telling them that
:43:40. > :43:42.eventually they will have to become self-sufficient.
:43:43. > :43:45.But there's a problem with the idea of self-sufficiency.
:43:46. > :43:48.Ask businesses to pay too much in business rates,
:43:49. > :43:52.Ask the people to pay too much in council tax,
:43:53. > :43:58.Cut council services to cut costs - well, you've guessed it,
:43:59. > :44:07.So councils are having to find new ways of making money.
:44:08. > :44:11.This former council depot in Duffield is being turned over
:44:12. > :44:15.to a development company set up by the council.
:44:16. > :44:17.The idea is the development company will build houses on here,
:44:18. > :44:20.they'll sell them on the open market and any profits will go back
:44:21. > :44:30.For you, the voters, it boils down to who you think
:44:31. > :44:33.The Conservatives say Derbyshire has ?230 million of reserves
:44:34. > :44:44.We will be investing ?30 million into care homes
:44:45. > :44:53.in Derbyshire and pulling in, we hope, an additional at least 100
:44:54. > :44:55.100 million pounds worth of investment from
:44:56. > :45:00.We will be looking to provide an extra ?10 million
:45:01. > :45:04.We are going to reinstate the cuts that have been made
:45:05. > :45:09.These are lifelines, particularly in our rural communities.
:45:10. > :45:11.But the ruling Labour group hopes its record in power
:45:12. > :45:15.We have put a lot of emphasis on social care services.
:45:16. > :45:18.We have been able to keep people coming out of hospital
:45:19. > :45:21.because we have got beds in our care homes that they can go to
:45:22. > :45:26.We have managed to retain all of our branch libraries,
:45:27. > :45:28.we have not closed any, we still stack them
:45:29. > :45:33.We are trying to be innovative and creative and find different,
:45:34. > :45:35.independent sources of funding, so that we are not so
:45:36. > :45:38.The Liberal Democrats are concerned the most vulnerable
:45:39. > :45:43.They say they will find new ways of working and raising income
:45:44. > :45:45.to make sure they look after the needs
:45:46. > :45:46.of residents across the county.
:45:47. > :45:57.Ukip says local government is facing a catastrophic cut in services,
:45:58. > :45:59.with the ?6 billion black hole in local government funding.
:46:00. > :46:01.It would plug the gap by cutting ?10 billion
:46:02. > :46:09.On 5th May, we will find out whose plan to pay for it all his won out,
:46:10. > :46:12.and who gets to walk up these steps and take control of County Hall.
:46:13. > :46:15.And voters in Derbyshire can find out more about their candidates
:46:16. > :46:19.Graham Chapman, we heard there that council are having to do an awful
:46:20. > :46:24.Can you tell us what sort of things Nottingham City Council are doing?
:46:25. > :46:26.Well, just to give a very spectacular example,
:46:27. > :46:29.our ice stadium is doing the merchandising for the O2 Arena,
:46:30. > :46:31.and for the Glasgow arena and for Liverpool.
:46:32. > :46:33.But we are also buying a lot of property at the moment
:46:34. > :46:37.because we can borrow quite cheaply and it gives you a decent return.
:46:38. > :46:39.We are doing work for the councils. What kind of property?
:46:40. > :46:41.Well, shops, offices - you need a good mix.
:46:42. > :46:43.Some will be retail, some industrial.
:46:44. > :46:45.And a lot of councils are getting into that.
:46:46. > :46:47.We are doing work for other councils.
:46:48. > :46:50.We are putting on IT courses for Rolls-Royce, believe it or not.
:46:51. > :46:57.We are one of the most successful councils in making
:46:58. > :47:01.Having said that, we're making another ?17 million on top
:47:02. > :47:05.of what we normally would - the cuts have been 120 million.
:47:06. > :47:11.So let's not pretend, nobody should pretend, that you make
:47:12. > :47:18.You can do a lot with municipal enterprise, you have got to do it,
:47:19. > :47:21.but it will not make up for what is happening
:47:22. > :47:23.to the adult social care budget, which is massive.
:47:24. > :47:28.A massive drain on resources, and that needs fixing.
:47:29. > :47:31.It is hard work, he says that. To keep raising that kind of money.
:47:32. > :47:34.Politics has always been hard work, and getting these things right has
:47:35. > :47:36.always been hard work, that does not mean to say
:47:37. > :47:49.I think there is still some way to go for local
:47:50. > :47:50.government and we can drive some more efficiency.
:47:51. > :47:54.I think people casting their vote in May should think long and hard
:47:55. > :47:57.about who they want to run the councils and how efficient
:47:58. > :47:59.they are going to be at getting the best value
:48:00. > :48:05.I'm quite excited about the future and how local government can really
:48:06. > :48:07.shape those communities and the people that they
:48:08. > :48:12.It is good that you are excited, but of course there is a lot
:48:13. > :48:14.of criticism that your government has simply outsourced austerity
:48:15. > :48:16.and has left it to local councils to make these cuts.
:48:17. > :48:19.Let's be clear, there is no money tree, this is taxpayers's money
:48:20. > :48:23.and you have to use it in the most efficient way in which you can.
:48:24. > :48:25.What the government is doing is saying to local authorities,
:48:26. > :48:28.there is this challenge, and you can invest in your own
:48:29. > :48:30.communities, in your own businesses, you can make the infrastructure
:48:31. > :48:33.right so that those businesses can flourish, and you will benefit
:48:34. > :48:35.as a local authority from that investment.
:48:36. > :48:38.That's the right way to drive that efficiency and make sure that local
:48:39. > :48:40.authorities are accountable for our own actions.
:48:41. > :48:44.First, you have been pumping loads and loads of money into Tory
:48:45. > :48:47.I have got a map which shows where the money has gone,
:48:48. > :48:50.and it is blue and it is in the south.
:48:51. > :48:53.The red bits are in the North where the money has not gone.
:48:54. > :48:57.The last distribution gave a big chunk of money to Surrey
:48:58. > :48:59.and nothing to Nottingham, nothing to Derby,
:49:00. > :49:01.nothing to Leicester. So there is that.
:49:02. > :49:03.Let's look at that money to Surrey, because, to be fair,
:49:04. > :49:06.historically you have done better than some areas in the past.
:49:07. > :49:08.In the budget top-up for adult social care,
:49:09. > :49:11.which you were talking about, you got ?7.2 million as an authority.
:49:12. > :49:17.But that is for the whole county of Surrey.
:49:18. > :49:20.Fine. I think you will probably find...
:49:21. > :49:22.I think I would look at those statistics again, I am not
:49:23. > :49:26.What Graham is saying is that Nottinghamshire
:49:27. > :49:29.was here and Surrey was here, and because Surrey has gone up more
:49:30. > :49:31.than Nottinghamshire then that is unfair.
:49:32. > :49:34.What has actually happened is that they are trying
:49:35. > :49:36.to equate some of that local authority spending.
:49:37. > :49:37.All right. Look, I will give
:49:38. > :49:52.The number of children in care per 10,000 is far
:49:53. > :49:58.Rutland is now getting more per household than Nottingham is.
:49:59. > :50:01.We have got more elderly as well, not just children in care, we have
:50:02. > :50:07.Not in places like Bournemouth, you can't tell me there is more
:50:08. > :50:09.elderly in Nottingham and there is in Bournemouth.
:50:10. > :50:13.Let's get back to the East Midlands and how this is playing at year,
:50:14. > :50:15.because there is a national audit report which is out this
:50:16. > :50:18.week that also says that implementing your plans to let
:50:19. > :50:21.councils keep all of their business rates by 2020 is full
:50:22. > :50:26.Is it going to happen and how was it going to work?
:50:27. > :50:30.I think that's a perfect example of where the local
:50:31. > :50:33.are in complete control of its own destiny.
:50:34. > :50:37.If it invests in those businesses, creates those economic conditions
:50:38. > :50:39.for those businesses to survive, then the tax revenues will go up.
:50:40. > :50:42.And it really does challenge local authorities to think about how
:50:43. > :50:45.they are going to benefit their own communities and not just go
:50:46. > :50:47.and shake the money tree and hope things will be better.
:50:48. > :50:50.Would you describe it as a challenge, and do you think
:50:51. > :50:52.it is going to work, Graham Chapman?
:50:53. > :50:55.What you've got a look at, let's just take Westminster council.
:50:56. > :50:58.It's got years and years of benefit, the tax take in Westminster,
:50:59. > :51:01.under the City of London, is equal to all the big cities.
:51:02. > :51:03.You're not telling me that Westminster Council has been
:51:04. > :51:06.responsible for its position, that it happens to be in London
:51:07. > :51:09.and the City of London happens to be the City of London.
:51:10. > :51:12.You will be paving the streets of gold in the City of London
:51:13. > :51:15.and Westminster, and you are then saying that someone like Mansfield,
:51:16. > :51:18.which is a place that is likely to suffer, it is all its own fault
:51:19. > :51:21.because it has had a mining industry which disappeared.
:51:22. > :51:22.You cannot argue that, and actually the whole
:51:23. > :51:28.You will not end up with a system where councils are keeping
:51:29. > :51:29.their own business rates, because places like
:51:30. > :51:33.But in brief, it means that you do not agree
:51:34. > :51:39.More details have been emerging of the ambitious plans to build
:51:40. > :51:42.a space park in Leicester, putting the region at the forefront
:51:43. > :51:44.of the emerging satellite and space industry.
:51:45. > :51:47.It will see a ?13 million investment and create hundreds of highly
:51:48. > :51:58.Our political editor donned his space suit to find out more.
:51:59. > :52:00.# There's a starman waiting in the sky.
:52:01. > :52:07.# But he thinks he'd blow our minds #.
:52:08. > :52:09.Millions of pounds of investment, 500 jobs -
:52:10. > :52:11.it's going to be a real boost to the Leicester economy.
:52:12. > :52:24.There is ?12.87 million to be precise,
:52:25. > :52:26.to help the development of what they are calling
:52:27. > :52:32.This is more than just astronauts and space travel.
:52:33. > :52:34.It is about making Leicester space city in the future.
:52:35. > :52:37.The plan is 100 businesses on land near the existing
:52:38. > :52:39.National Space Centre, already a great education asset.
:52:40. > :52:43.Well, the University of Leicester has a proud
:52:44. > :52:52.history of space research, stretching back to the 1960s.
:52:53. > :52:58.We've been putting vehicles into space, putting instruments
:52:59. > :53:00.into satellites, instruments on things that are going to Mars
:53:01. > :53:06.So we have a huge expertise in the space industry and one
:53:07. > :53:11.We want to grow this, so that it is not just
:53:12. > :53:13.all about world-class research, which we are of course very proud
:53:14. > :53:16.about, but we want to turn it into a real innovation Hub.
:53:17. > :53:18.Every year since 1967, there has been a Leicester-based
:53:19. > :53:22.The benefits of space research affect us all,
:53:23. > :53:25.things we now take for granted like that satnavs, but also
:53:26. > :53:31.It's not just going to be about building things to go into space,
:53:32. > :53:33.one of the big growth areas at the moment
:53:34. > :53:37.We have fleets of satellites in orbit around the Earth
:53:38. > :53:39.at the moment looking down at the Earth.
:53:40. > :53:42.And they are able to tell us about things like crops,
:53:43. > :53:52.forest fires, disaster-monitoring, and getting that data,
:53:53. > :53:54.assessing it and turning it into useful things
:53:55. > :53:59.The money to help with the investment is part
:54:00. > :54:05.of the Midlands Engine Project, announced the day after the budget.
:54:06. > :54:08.It is a partnership with local businesses and politicians to give
:54:09. > :54:11.There is also ?1 million to help expand the space centre.
:54:12. > :54:14.The jobs the projects bring will also help retain the scientific
:54:15. > :54:21.The time that I finished my PhD will be about the time
:54:22. > :54:24.the facility is built, so for people like me
:54:25. > :54:30.I am planning to do a masters, maybe a PhD, and then hopefully
:54:31. > :54:35.Leicester has been at the forefront of space for the last 50 years,
:54:36. > :54:38.and it is a great opportunity that we are actually
:54:39. > :54:42.Of course the government has made it clear that they want the space
:54:43. > :54:45.industry to become a major part of our economy.
:54:46. > :54:47.I think in 2014 it was about ?10 billion, ?11 billion
:54:48. > :54:53.They want to up it to ?40 billion by 2030.
:54:54. > :55:02.So the countdown is on for Leicester space city,
:55:03. > :55:05.the UK's hub for space research, which they hope will have a big
:55:06. > :55:07.impact on the city and the whole of the East Midlands.
:55:08. > :55:10.He's still wearing that suit - we cannot get it off him.
:55:11. > :55:15.Mark Spencer, space-related industries could be worth
:55:16. > :55:18.worth ?40 billion - is it realistic to expect
:55:19. > :55:21.that we will get a slice of that here in the East Midlands?
:55:22. > :55:25.I think it is a really good example of where a local authority,
:55:26. > :55:27.government and the University are cooperating, to drag
:55:28. > :55:29.in investment, and that really kicks on to local industries,
:55:30. > :55:31.local businesses, to education establishments.
:55:32. > :55:34.I think it is a really good news story and it demonstrates that
:55:35. > :55:36.if we all work together, actually we can have a really
:55:37. > :55:38.positive impact and do something really exciting.
:55:39. > :55:41.The thinking behind this plan is to get into a sector
:55:42. > :55:43.where there are highly paid and highly skilled jobs.
:55:44. > :55:45.It's got to be a good idea, basically.
:55:46. > :55:49.Remember we're doing the same for the biotechnology in Nottingham.
:55:50. > :55:53.On Monday we will be opening the biotechnology building
:55:54. > :55:56.and it is the council that has built it and it is the council eventually
:55:57. > :56:00.And it is creating jobs, putting Nottingham on the map
:56:01. > :56:06.Councils can do a great deal if we have got the ability
:56:07. > :56:09.and the resources, because a lot of it is going into adult
:56:10. > :56:12.care at the moment, we can do a great deal.
:56:13. > :56:14.One of their weaknesses in our economy, identified
:56:15. > :56:17.by the Midlands Engine, is the lack of jobs here to keep
:56:18. > :56:20.We need to be doing more of things like this,
:56:21. > :56:22.don't we, to keep them here? Absolutely.
:56:23. > :56:28.I actually met with Unite this week, who were worried that the immense
:56:29. > :56:31.amount of jobs being created by Rolls-Royce were not going to be
:56:32. > :56:34.filled, we have not got enough skilled engineers.
:56:35. > :56:36.I would say to young people doing their A-levels now,
:56:37. > :56:39.look at those STEM subjects, look at engineering and science,
:56:40. > :56:42.because there is going to be lots of jobs in the East Midlands
:56:43. > :56:48.available in the future, and great opportunities to build
:56:49. > :56:55.a career here in the East Midlands. Let's hope so.
:56:56. > :56:57.Graham, the report this week said only a third of graduates
:56:58. > :57:01.in Nottingham stay in the city. That is some brain drain.
:57:02. > :57:04.It is, and what we have to look at is what will
:57:05. > :57:09.Every graduate that comes thinks Nottingham is a great
:57:10. > :57:12.place, so in some cases it is obviously job opportunities.
:57:13. > :57:15.What makes me optimistic, I think London is overheating.
:57:16. > :57:18.If I had a statistic, I think you need 17 times the amount of...
:57:19. > :57:21.It costs you something like 17 times the amount of your annual
:57:22. > :57:24.In Nottingham it is about four times.
:57:25. > :57:32.So what we have got to do is promote the benefits of being in Nottingham
:57:33. > :57:36.to them far more effectively than we have been doing.
:57:37. > :57:39.Do you think the space park, which is one of the Midlands Engine
:57:40. > :57:41.initiatives is doing enough to boost our economy, across
:57:42. > :57:45.You cannot do it through just one space park,
:57:46. > :57:48.If you really want to make growth, it is smaller businesses
:57:49. > :57:52.They create jobs far faster than bigger industries,
:57:53. > :57:56.and what we need to be doing is make it easier for them to borrow
:57:57. > :58:01.They need places to locate and places to move on,
:58:02. > :58:06.and this is what we are trying to work on as a City Council.
:58:07. > :58:09.Mark, I know that you have been campaigning to extend the Robin Hood
:58:10. > :58:11.line from Nottingham to Worksop so that it reaches
:58:12. > :58:16.If that part of the Midlands Engine agenda, and is your
:58:17. > :58:19.Clearly there needs to be more investment, particularly
:58:20. > :58:27.I am pushing like mad, not only on the Robin Hood line
:58:28. > :58:31.but I think improvements to Ollerton Roundabout would really
:58:32. > :58:41.We are seeing investment in terms of the tourism industry
:58:42. > :58:45.with the new Robin Hood Centre, but I think D2N2 need to bang
:58:46. > :58:48.the drum a bit louder as well and we need to support them in doing
:58:49. > :58:53.that to try to drag a bit more cash up here.
:58:54. > :58:55.Graham is getting investment for the Broadmarsh Centre.
:58:56. > :58:59.It is not just graduates, it is the NVQ4.
:59:00. > :59:03.A lot of energy has got to go in there.
:59:04. > :59:06.If we're going to compete internationally now,
:59:07. > :59:09.it is the skills in the technical trades.
:59:10. > :59:12.Can I just clear up those figures that we were talking
:59:13. > :59:16.We talked about ?7.5 million that Surrey received,
:59:17. > :59:20.that was from their website, Graham, we have checked that.
:59:21. > :59:23.Well, they did get an additional 11 through a transitional grant.
:59:24. > :59:25.They may have got that additional ?11 million since,
:59:26. > :59:28.but that 7.5 million I mentioned earlier was from their website, so
:59:29. > :59:32.Time for a round-up of some of the other political stories
:59:33. > :59:49.The government has rejected calls for an enquiry into HS2 after the
:59:50. > :59:55.company pulled out over allegations of conflict-of-interest. The
:59:56. > :59:59.Transport Secretary said it was an error and not a misdemeanour.
:00:00. > :00:04.Margaret Beckett has become the country's longest serving member of
:00:05. > :00:09.Parliament. She was one of just six female MPs when she was first
:00:10. > :00:16.elected. Today is being billed as an historic day at Ilkeston. It is 50
:00:17. > :00:19.years since they last had a link to the RealNetworks and now it is open
:00:20. > :00:26.again. Proving that children interrupting
:00:27. > :00:32.appearance on television is nothing new, this clip is a social media
:00:33. > :00:37.hit. It has not damaged her career. She is now deputy speaker in the
:00:38. > :00:46.House of Commons. Fantastic stuff. You can see more of
:00:47. > :00:51.that clip on social media. That is the Sunday Politics here in the East
:00:52. > :01:04.Midlands. My thanks to our guests. Time to hand you back.
:01:05. > :01:06.So, what will be the effect of new tax and benefit changes
:01:07. > :01:10.Will the Government's grand trade tour reap benefits?
:01:11. > :01:13.And are the Lib Dems really going to replace Labour,
:01:14. > :01:25.To answer that last question, I'm joined by from Salford
:01:26. > :01:29.by the Lib Dem MP, Alistair Carmichael.
:01:30. > :01:39.Michael Fallon sirs the Lib Dems will replace Labour. How long will
:01:40. > :01:44.it take? We will have to wait and see. Anyone who thinks you can
:01:45. > :01:50.predict the future is engaged in a dodgy game. I have been campaigning
:01:51. > :01:54.with the Liberal Democrats in Manchester... You must not
:01:55. > :02:02.mention... You know the by-election rules. It is only an illustration.
:02:03. > :02:12.Across false ways of the country, the Liberal Democrats are back in
:02:13. > :02:15.business -- across whole swathes of the country. Part of the reason why
:02:16. > :02:21.we are getting a good response is because the Labour Party under
:02:22. > :02:26.Jeremy Corbyn has taken such a self-destructive path. Even if you
:02:27. > :02:29.do pretty well in the local elections, it you have to make up
:02:30. > :02:36.lost ground from the time you did very well in previous times, you
:02:37. > :02:41.used to have 4700 councillors. It will take you a long while to get
:02:42. > :02:44.back to that. You will get no argument from me that we have a
:02:45. > :02:49.mountain to climb. What I'm telling you is, and if this is not just in
:02:50. > :02:55.this round of elections, it is in the other by-elections in places
:02:56. > :03:00.like Richmond, and in by-elections write the length and breadth of the
:03:01. > :03:03.country since last June, the Liberal Democrats are taking seats from the
:03:04. > :03:11.Labour Party under Conservative Party, and not just in Brexit phobic
:03:12. > :03:15.areas. Not just in Remain areas. But in places like Sunderland as well
:03:16. > :03:21.which voted very heavily for Brexit. In fact, that vote was in large part
:03:22. > :03:26.as well a protest against the way in which the Labour Party really has
:03:27. > :03:31.taken these areas for granted over the years. That is why the ground is
:03:32. > :03:37.fertile for us. In the local elections which is what we are
:03:38. > :03:41.discussing today, why would anybody vote for the Liberal Democrats if
:03:42. > :03:49.they believed in Brexit? Mr Farren has said he wants to reverse works.
:03:50. > :03:53.If you are Brexit supporter and you are considering how to cast your
:03:54. > :03:57.vote, first of all, I think you will be looking at the quality of
:03:58. > :04:01.representation you can get for your local area and you are right, we
:04:02. > :04:10.have a lot of ground to recoup from previous elections, we lost 124
:04:11. > :04:14.seats, communities have now had a few years to reflect on the quality
:04:15. > :04:17.of service they have been able to get and they have missed the very
:04:18. > :04:23.effective liberal Democrat councillors they have had. This is
:04:24. > :04:29.not just about whether you are a believer or remainer, ultimately,
:04:30. > :04:34.that is an issue we are going to have to settle and we will settle it
:04:35. > :04:38.not in the way the Government is having by dictating the terms of the
:04:39. > :04:43.debate, but by bringing the whole country together. I think that is
:04:44. > :04:47.something you can only do if, as we have suggested, you give the people
:04:48. > :04:51.the opportunity to have a say on the deal when Theresa May eventually
:04:52. > :04:56.produces it. The only way you could really replace Labour in the
:04:57. > :05:01.foreseeable future would be if a big chunk of the centre and right of the
:05:02. > :05:07.Labour Party came over and join due in some kind of new social
:05:08. > :05:12.democratic alliance. -- joined you. There is no sign that will happen? I
:05:13. > :05:15.do not see whether common purpose is anymore holding the Labour Party
:05:16. > :05:20.together. That is for people in the Labour Party to make their own
:05:21. > :05:28.decisions. Use what happened to the Labour Party in Scotland. -- you
:05:29. > :05:33.saw. Politics moved on and left them behind and they were decimated as a
:05:34. > :05:36.consequence of that. So was your party. It is possible the same thing
:05:37. > :05:42.could happen to the Labour Party and the rest of the UK. Politics is
:05:43. > :05:49.moving on and they are coming up with 1970s solutions to problems in
:05:50. > :05:54.2017. Alistair Carmichael, thanks for joining us. Let us have a look
:05:55. > :06:00.at some of the tax and benefit changes coming up this week. The tax
:06:01. > :06:05.changes first of all. The personal allowance is going to rise to
:06:06. > :06:10.?11,500, the level at which you start to pay tax. The higher rate
:06:11. > :06:16.threshold, where you start to play at 40%, that will rise from
:06:17. > :06:24.currently ?43,400, rising up to 40 5000. -- pay. Benefit changes,
:06:25. > :06:31.freeze on working age benefits, removal of the family element of tax
:06:32. > :06:36.credits and universal credit, that is a technical change but quite an
:06:37. > :06:42.impact. The child element of tax credit is going to be limited to two
:06:43. > :06:49.children on any new claims. The Resolution Foundation has crunched
:06:50. > :06:56.the numbers and they discovered that when you take the tax and benefit
:06:57. > :07:04.changes together, 80% go to better off households and the poorest third
:07:05. > :07:08.or worse. What help -- what happened to help the just about managing? The
:07:09. > :07:13.Resolution Foundation exists to find the worst possible statistics... It
:07:14. > :07:19.is not clear the figures are wrong? They are fairly recent figures and I
:07:20. > :07:23.have not seen analysis by other organisations. The Adam Smith
:07:24. > :07:27.Institute will probably have some question marks over it. Nobody
:07:28. > :07:31.should be surprised a Tory government is trying to make the
:07:32. > :07:37.state smaller... And the poor poorer. The system is propped up by
:07:38. > :07:41.better off people and so it will be those people who will be slightly
:07:42. > :07:48.less heavily taxed as you make the state smaller. Theresa May will have
:07:49. > :07:53.to stop just talking about the just about managing. And some of her
:07:54. > :07:57.other language and the role of the government and the state when she
:07:58. > :08:02.sounded quite positive... She sounded like a big government
:08:03. > :08:06.conservative not small government. In every set piece occasion, she
:08:07. > :08:14.says, it is time to look at the good the government can do. That is not
:08:15. > :08:18.what you heard from Mrs Thatcher. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown would
:08:19. > :08:23.not have dared to say it either even if they believed it. It raises a
:08:24. > :08:29.much bigger question which is, as well as whether this is a set of
:08:30. > :08:34.progressive measures, the Resolution Foundation constantly argued when
:08:35. > :08:37.George Osborne announced his budget measures as progressive when they
:08:38. > :08:41.were regressive when they checked out the figures, but also how this
:08:42. > :08:45.government was going to meet the demand for public services when it
:08:46. > :08:50.has ruled out virtually any tax rises that you would normally do
:08:51. > :08:56.now, including National Insurance. There are a whole range of nightmare
:08:57. > :08:59.issues on Philip Hammond's in-tray in relation to tax. The Resolution
:09:00. > :09:05.Foundation figures do not include the rise in the minimum wage which
:09:06. > :09:08.has just gone under way. They do not include the tax free childcare from
:09:09. > :09:14.the end of April, the extra 15 hours of free childcare from September.
:09:15. > :09:17.Even when you include these, it does not look like it would offset the
:09:18. > :09:23.losses of the poorest households. Doesn't that have to be a problem
:09:24. > :09:26.for Theresa May? It really is a problem especially when her
:09:27. > :09:31.narrative and indeed entire purpose in government is for that just about
:09:32. > :09:37.managing. What Mrs May still has which is exactly a problem they have
:09:38. > :09:39.at the budget and the Autumn Statement is that they are still
:09:40. > :09:46.saddled with George Osborne's massive ring fences on tax cuts and
:09:47. > :09:50.spending. They have to go through with the tax cut for the middle
:09:51. > :09:53.classes by pushing up the higher rate threshold which is absolutely
:09:54. > :09:58.going to do nothing for the just about managing. When they try to
:09:59. > :10:01.mitigate that, for example, in the Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond was
:10:02. > :10:06.told to come up with more money to ease the cuts in tax credits, came
:10:07. > :10:11.up with 350 million, an absolute... It is billions and billions
:10:12. > :10:15.involved. Marginal adjustment. A huge problem with the actual tax and
:10:16. > :10:19.benefit changes going on with what Mrs May as saying. The only way to
:10:20. > :10:24.fix it is coming up with more money to alleviate that. Where will you
:10:25. > :10:28.find it? Philip Hammond tried in the Budget with the National Insurance
:10:29. > :10:34.rises but it lasted six and a half days. I was told that it was one of
:10:35. > :10:39.the reasons why the Chancellor looked kindly on the idea of an
:10:40. > :10:44.early election because he wanted to get rid of what he regards as an
:10:45. > :10:48.albatross around his neck, the Tory manifesto 2015, no increase in
:10:49. > :10:54.income tax, no increase in VAT, no increase in National Insurance, fuel
:10:55. > :10:57.duty was not cut when fuel prices were falling so it is hardly going
:10:58. > :11:03.to rise now when they are rising again. This is why, I suggest, they
:11:04. > :11:07.end up in these incredibly complicated what we used to call
:11:08. > :11:12.stealth taxes as ways of trying to raise money and invariably a blow up
:11:13. > :11:18.in your face. Stealth taxes never end up being stealthy. It is part of
:11:19. > :11:23.the narrative that budget begins to fall apart within hours. You have to
:11:24. > :11:27.have sympathy, as Tom says, with Philip Hammond. No wonder he would
:11:28. > :11:31.like to be liberated. The early election will not happen. The best
:11:32. > :11:35.argument I have heard for an early election. The tax and spend about at
:11:36. > :11:41.the last election was a disaster partly because the Conservatives
:11:42. > :11:45.feared they would lose. Maybe they could be a bit more candid about the
:11:46. > :11:52.need to put up some taxes to pay for public services and it is very
:11:53. > :11:55.interesting what you picked up on Philip Hammond because he is
:11:56. > :12:02.trapped. So constrained about... You can also reopen the Ring fencing and
:12:03. > :12:08.spending and the obvious place to go is the triple lock, OAP spending.
:12:09. > :12:13.Another case for an election. He cannot undo the promise to that
:12:14. > :12:17.demographic. We will not get to 2020 without something breaking. The
:12:18. > :12:25.Prime Minister, the trade secretary and Mr Hammond, they are off to
:12:26. > :12:31.India, the Far East, talking up trade with these countries, I do not
:12:32. > :12:36.know if any of you are going? Sadly not. Will it produce dividends? The
:12:37. > :12:42.prime Minster is going somewhere too. No, it will not, the honest
:12:43. > :12:46.answer. No one will do a trade deal with us because we cannot do one
:12:47. > :12:49.because we are still in the EU and they need to know what our terms
:12:50. > :12:54.will be with the EU first before they can work out how they want to
:12:55. > :12:58.trade with us. This is vital preparatory work. Ministers always
:12:59. > :13:02.go somewhere in recess, it is what they do. We will not see anything in
:13:03. > :13:08.a hurry, we will not see anything for two years. They have to do it.
:13:09. > :13:13.Whatever side of the joint you are on, Brexit, remain, we need to get
:13:14. > :13:17.out there. -- the argument. We should have been doing this the day
:13:18. > :13:21.after the referendum result. It is now several months down the line and
:13:22. > :13:27.they need to step it up, not the opposite. You can make some informal
:13:28. > :13:31.talks, I guess. You can say, Britain is open for business. There is a
:13:32. > :13:36.symbolism to it. What a lot of energy sucked up into this.
:13:37. > :13:43.Parliament is not sitting so they might as well start talking. We have
:13:44. > :13:47.run out of energy and time. That is it for today. We are off for the
:13:48. > :13:52.Easter recess, back in two weeks' time. If it is Sunday, it is the
:13:53. > :14:20.Sunday Politics. Unless it is that used to recess! -- Easter recess.
:14:21. > :14:23.Marine Le Pen has her eyes on the French presidency.
:14:24. > :14:27.As she tries to distance herself from her party's controversial past,
:14:28. > :14:32.we follow the money and ask, "Who's funding her campaign?"