19/11/2017

0:00:34 > 0:00:36Morning everyone, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.

0:00:36 > 0:00:37I'm Sarah Smith.

0:00:37 > 0:00:40And this is your guide to all the big stories that

0:00:40 > 0:00:44are shaping politics this weekend, and a few of the smaller ones too.

0:00:44 > 0:00:47Philip Hammond is getting ready to deliver his latest Budget

0:00:47 > 0:00:49on Wednesday and he's not short of advice - to spend more,

0:00:49 > 0:00:52show restraint, even to stop being an Eyore -

0:00:52 > 0:00:57but can he change the direction of the country and his government?

0:00:57 > 0:00:59Conservative Party darling Jacob Rees-Mogg has

0:00:59 > 0:01:01some advice of his own.

0:01:01 > 0:01:03He thinks the Chancellor is being far too gloomy about Brexit

0:01:03 > 0:01:07- he joins me live to explain why.

0:01:07 > 0:01:11The former Leave campaign leader, Gisela Stuart, will be here debating

0:01:11 > 0:01:14with pro-EU campaigner Alastair Campbell, after taking

0:01:14 > 0:01:16a trip to her native Germany to speak to businesses

0:01:16 > 0:01:20about Brexit.

0:01:20 > 0:01:23And, as we wait to find out what's on the menu for this week's budget,

0:01:23 > 0:01:25we're in a diner off the A1 in Peterborough,

0:01:25 > 0:01:28finding out who people most trust with the economy -

0:01:28 > 0:01:32Philip Hammond or John McDonnell?

0:01:32 > 0:01:34In the East Midlands, a Conservative MP calls

0:01:34 > 0:01:37for an end to austerity as

0:01:37 > 0:01:38his local council spends millions on regeneration.

0:01:38 > 0:01:41Plus, who has the best policies to attract young voters?

0:01:48 > 0:01:49All that coming up in the programme.

0:01:49 > 0:01:52And with me for for all of it, three journalists who've promised

0:01:52 > 0:01:56not to show off like Michael Gove by using any long economicky words -

0:01:56 > 0:01:59although I'm not sure they really know that many anyway -

0:01:59 > 0:02:02it's Tom Newton Dunn, Gaby Hinsliff and Iain Martin.

0:02:02 > 0:02:05Let's take a look at the big political stories making the news

0:02:05 > 0:02:07this Sunday morning, and as you might expect there's

0:02:07 > 0:02:09plenty of speculation about what might or not might be

0:02:09 > 0:02:12in Philip Hammond's Budget.

0:02:12 > 0:02:14The Chancellor is promising a big investment in new technology,

0:02:14 > 0:02:18including driverless cars - which could be on the road by 2021.

0:02:18 > 0:02:21He's been interviewed in the Sunday Times,

0:02:21 > 0:02:24where he talks about plans to reach the target of building

0:02:24 > 0:02:27300,000 homes every year, or the equivalent of a city

0:02:27 > 0:02:28the size of Leeds.

0:02:28 > 0:02:32That paper speculates that he's attempting to turn from "fiscal

0:02:32 > 0:02:34Phil" into "hopeful Hammond" as he tries to set out

0:02:34 > 0:02:37a vision for the country, not just a list of numbers.

0:02:37 > 0:02:40The Sunday Telegraph thinks that Mr Hammond is planning to offer

0:02:40 > 0:02:43a pay rise to nurses as part of a bid to take on Labour.

0:02:43 > 0:02:46But that hasn't impressed Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell.

0:02:46 > 0:02:49He's spoken to a number of papers and is calling for an emergency

0:02:49 > 0:02:52budget to invest in public services and help struggling households.

0:02:52 > 0:02:55So that's a taste of what you might hear on Wednesday and Mr Hammond

0:02:55 > 0:02:58and Mr McDonnell have both been appearing this morning

0:02:58 > 0:03:01on the Andrew Marr Show.

0:03:01 > 0:03:04I think Britain has a very bright future ahead of it,

0:03:04 > 0:03:07and we have to embrace the opportunities that

0:03:07 > 0:03:09a post-Brexit world will offer.

0:03:09 > 0:03:11They will be opportunities that are based on huge change,

0:03:11 > 0:03:14huge technological evolution.

0:03:14 > 0:03:18It's not always going to be easy, but the British people have shown

0:03:18 > 0:03:20time and time again that we're up for these challenges.

0:03:20 > 0:03:24For many people out there, this is a depression.

0:03:24 > 0:03:27We've had people whose wages have been cut by 10%.

0:03:27 > 0:03:29Nurses, for example.

0:03:29 > 0:03:32We've had people who are now...

0:03:32 > 0:03:361.25 million food parcels handed out in the sixth richest

0:03:36 > 0:03:37country in the world.

0:03:37 > 0:03:45That's what I call a recession for large numbers of people.

0:03:45 > 0:03:51We will be talking about Labour and their economic policies in a moment,

0:03:51 > 0:03:55but let's start with what we might expect from the budget. We will talk

0:03:55 > 0:03:59to our panel of political observers. Philip Hammond is under pressure to

0:03:59 > 0:04:04set out a bold vision and reset the government's programme. Can we

0:04:04 > 0:04:09expect that?No, we can't. We have heard enough from the Chancellor

0:04:09 > 0:04:13across various broadcast and his article in the Sunday Times. I think

0:04:13 > 0:04:22we will not be getting a bold budget. His precise words short... A

0:04:22 > 0:04:25short time ago were a balanced budget. Some Tory hearts will think.

0:04:25 > 0:04:30They desperately want something to go out and shout about, something to

0:04:30 > 0:04:34capture people's imagination, and do big and bold things, like how on

0:04:34 > 0:04:40earth are they going to build those new 300,000 houses a year? There are

0:04:40 > 0:04:47good reasons why he has chosen what appears to be a pretty staid,

0:04:47 > 0:04:52Conservative budget, and that is that they are probably unable to get

0:04:52 > 0:04:55anything bold through Parliament. His capital is so low among Tory

0:04:55 > 0:05:04MPs. If you have a minority government, it is tricky.We have

0:05:04 > 0:05:07seen ministers on programmes like this in the last few weeks putting

0:05:07 > 0:05:12in the bids for what they would like spending on, whether it be payment

0:05:12 > 0:05:16for nurses or parliament. Would he struggled to get something radical

0:05:16 > 0:05:21through the Commons?Big ideas cost money. That's the problem. Bold

0:05:21 > 0:05:28ideas are controversial. In some ways, Tory MPs are asking their

0:05:28 > 0:05:31Chancellor to do the impossible. Government is already doing

0:05:31 > 0:05:37something big and bold, which is Brexit. That has implications for

0:05:37 > 0:05:41how much money is available, how many risks you want to take with

0:05:41 > 0:05:46everything else. What is crucial is that he demonstrates a reputation

0:05:46 > 0:05:51for competence. The reputation that the Conservative government has for

0:05:51 > 0:05:56economic competence, that many people prefer them to Labour on the

0:05:56 > 0:05:59issue of economic competence. The worst thing he could do is come up

0:05:59 > 0:06:05with a big, bold idea that unravelled quickly. What they

0:06:05 > 0:06:09absolutely don't want is to come up with an exciting idea that falls

0:06:09 > 0:06:14apart three days after the budget. He is under pressure from

0:06:14 > 0:06:17Brexiteers, who are suspicious of him. Does he have to offer them

0:06:17 > 0:06:22something?Part of his problem is he has to offer so many different

0:06:22 > 0:06:25people different things. This is Philip Hammond trying to be and

0:06:25 > 0:06:34dynamic.It is hard to tell sometimes.At least in theoretical

0:06:34 > 0:06:43terms. His longer-term difficulty is that, if you look at the economic

0:06:43 > 0:06:48cycle, we are getting to a point where we are probably overdue, if

0:06:48 > 0:06:53you put Brexit to one side, overdue some kind of correction or downturn,

0:06:53 > 0:06:59if you look what has happened to asset prices globally. What will be

0:06:59 > 0:07:04worrying for the Treasury is, just as everyone is saying we should turn

0:07:04 > 0:07:10on the taps and build this or that, we might be at the top of a cycle,

0:07:10 > 0:07:14and the Treasury will want to lose something in the armoury in terms of

0:07:14 > 0:07:18probably growing the deficit if there are economic difficulties in

0:07:18 > 0:07:23the next two years, and then there is Brexit as well.It sounds

0:07:23 > 0:07:28impossible.I think so. Talking to his friends and colleagues over the

0:07:28 > 0:07:33last few days, he had to make a call, which was precisely how much

0:07:33 > 0:07:39can I get away with, with my political capital being as low as it

0:07:39 > 0:07:45is, with the mixed problems he had at the last budget, and a lot of the

0:07:45 > 0:07:50party disliking his approach to Brexit. He is damned if he is,

0:07:50 > 0:07:59damned if he doesn't. Universal Credit, we are expecting a reduction

0:07:59 > 0:08:06in the time it takes to wait, business rates, affected by high

0:08:06 > 0:08:11inflation... I think we will see a problem fixing budget which will

0:08:11 > 0:08:16probably do quite a lot of important spadework in many areas.We will

0:08:16 > 0:08:21pick up on some of this later in the programme.

0:08:21 > 0:08:24Let's speak now to the Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, this week

0:08:24 > 0:08:26he helpfully launched an alternative "budget for Brexit" and advised

0:08:26 > 0:08:28the Chancellor to be less gloomy about the consequences

0:08:28 > 0:08:32of leaving the EU.

0:08:32 > 0:08:36Thank you for joining us. Your alternative budget is pretty

0:08:36 > 0:08:45radical. Almost half corporation tax, Cap Stamp duty to help the

0:08:45 > 0:08:50London market. It seems you are advocating the opposite from what we

0:08:50 > 0:08:54will hear from your Chancellor on Wednesday.There are two parts to

0:08:54 > 0:08:58the proposals I suggested. One is that we should show that after we

0:08:58 > 0:09:04have left the European Union, the UK is open to the rest of the world. It

0:09:04 > 0:09:08is about opening up to the rest of the world. Secondly, looking at the

0:09:08 > 0:09:13modelling that has been done by the Treasury and some other forecasters,

0:09:13 > 0:09:17which has been so comprehensively wrong. The forecasts made about what

0:09:17 > 0:09:25would happen after Brexit have turned out to be hopelessly false.

0:09:25 > 0:09:30The team at Cardiff University have done some modelling based on the

0:09:30 > 0:09:33classical economic principles and what happens if you move to free

0:09:33 > 0:09:38trade that would be very positive for the economy.You are predicting

0:09:38 > 0:09:46a Brexit dividend of £135 billion, which sounds fantastic. Why are you

0:09:46 > 0:09:50right, and everybody else, including the Bank of England and the

0:09:50 > 0:09:54Institute for Fiscal Studies, why are they all wrong?It depends on

0:09:54 > 0:09:59the type of modelling. The modelling that have been done by the Treasury

0:09:59 > 0:10:03have been based on gravity models, which work on the basis of the

0:10:03 > 0:10:07nearness of the market and the size of the economy you are trading with.

0:10:07 > 0:10:12These have been wrong in the past. They predicted that if we joined the

0:10:12 > 0:10:19euro, trade would grow by 300%. That was then revised down to 200%, but

0:10:19 > 0:10:26it is fantasyland. The model I am working on, by Sir Patrick Minford,

0:10:26 > 0:10:34who has a record of getting these things right. He was right about the

0:10:34 > 0:10:38exchange rate mechanism, right about the euro.Being right in the past

0:10:38 > 0:10:43doesn't mean you are right about the future. Why do you think the

0:10:43 > 0:10:47Treasury will not pick up the same numbers, if this is so obvious to

0:10:47 > 0:10:52you?I think the Treasury was humiliated by the errors in its

0:10:52 > 0:10:58forecast prior to Brexit, and is trying to defend its position. The

0:10:58 > 0:11:01short-term economic consequences of a vote to leave was one of the most

0:11:01 > 0:11:07dishonest documents to come out of the Treasury, purely a piece of

0:11:07 > 0:11:10political propaganda. They are wounded by that and sticking to the

0:11:10 > 0:11:15same script, rather than looking at other forecasts and other experts.

0:11:15 > 0:11:19You think the governor of the Bank of England is an enemy of Brexit,

0:11:19 > 0:11:24and it sounds like you think the Treasury is opposed to it. As the

0:11:24 > 0:11:29Chancellor fallen under their spell as well, and been persuaded to be an

0:11:29 > 0:11:35enemy of Brexit?I have admiration the Chancellor, but George Osborne,

0:11:35 > 0:11:40his predecessor, was the architect of Project Fear. He was too close to

0:11:40 > 0:11:44the Bank of England and lost his independence. That is what needs to

0:11:44 > 0:11:50change. It is an opportunity in the budget for Philip Hammond to show he

0:11:50 > 0:11:55is putting aside the Treasury's mistakes in the past. It is very

0:11:55 > 0:12:00encouraging what he is saying this morning, about a more positive

0:12:00 > 0:12:05approach to Brexit.Lord Lawson has accused Philip Hammond of being very

0:12:05 > 0:12:12close to sabotage on Brexit. He says we need a can-do man at the Treasury

0:12:12 > 0:12:16and not a prophet of doom.I think that Philip Hammond is an

0:12:16 > 0:12:20exceptionally intelligent man, a very thoughtful man. It is not a bad

0:12:20 > 0:12:25thing to have a Chancellor who is serious minded and steady, rather

0:12:25 > 0:12:32than one who is a showman and uses the Exchequer to interfere in

0:12:32 > 0:12:36absolutely everything.I have a lot of confidence in the Chancellor.

0:12:36 > 0:12:41When you launched your budget for Brexit, you said the government has

0:12:41 > 0:12:47to deliver the £350 million for the NHS that was delivered during the

0:12:47 > 0:12:50referendum, even though you didn't think that promise should have been

0:12:50 > 0:12:55made. Is that something they now need to deliver wrong?It is. This

0:12:55 > 0:13:01only happens once we have left. Politicians have to recognise that

0:13:01 > 0:13:08voters don't look at the small print of electoral policies. If you put

0:13:08 > 0:13:13£350 million on the side of a bus and say it may be available for the

0:13:13 > 0:13:19NHS, it is reasonable for people to think that is a promise. Brexit was

0:13:19 > 0:13:25won by the Leave campaign, so it it is important that they deliver on

0:13:25 > 0:13:29that promise. Politicians must keep faith with voters and deliver on

0:13:29 > 0:13:34implied promises, as well as ones that are set out in detail.The

0:13:34 > 0:13:38Cabinet will move on to talk about the Brexit bill this week, and we

0:13:38 > 0:13:43understand they may need to come up with more money to satisfy EU

0:13:43 > 0:13:46demands. The more money spent on that is less money available for

0:13:46 > 0:13:52things like spending on the NHS. Are you worried about the size of the

0:13:52 > 0:13:59exit bill?You have your finger on the important point. The government

0:13:59 > 0:14:03will have to choose whether to give lots of money to the European Union,

0:14:03 > 0:14:08or whether to spend money on UK public services, and that will be

0:14:08 > 0:14:12part of the negotiation. On all these issues, it comes down to

0:14:12 > 0:14:17choice is the government makes. I would encourage the government to

0:14:17 > 0:14:21choose our own domestic public services rather than expensive

0:14:21 > 0:14:25schemes in continent or Europe.Why are you advocating that the

0:14:25 > 0:14:35government should spend up to £2.5 billion on a no deal scenario?

0:14:35 > 0:14:40It is important that we are ready to leave in the event of no deal. If we

0:14:40 > 0:14:46left with no deal we would on current figures still be saving the

0:14:46 > 0:14:52remains of 18 billion so we would be saving 15 and a half billion against

0:14:52 > 0:14:57paying for the financial framework. To show we're ready on day one would

0:14:57 > 0:15:04be money well spent and most would be needed any way. We need to have

0:15:04 > 0:15:09new customs arrangements in place even if it is not for a no deal

0:15:09 > 0:15:12situation.There are suggestions that the Government might back down

0:15:12 > 0:15:16on the idea of putting the time and date of leaving the EU on the face

0:15:16 > 0:15:20of the bill. Would you be Exxon certained if that was -- concerned

0:15:20 > 0:15:28if that was remove prd the bill?It is in Article 50, unless Article 50

0:15:28 > 0:15:38is extended by the Council of Europe we leave on 20th March 2019 and it

0:15:38 > 0:15:42makes accepts that should be the same in -- sense that should be in

0:15:42 > 0:15:46same in domestic law. But that is a secondary concern from my point of

0:15:46 > 0:15:50view. It is important that we leave on that date.Stay there if you

0:15:50 > 0:15:52would.

0:15:52 > 0:15:54We're joined in the studio by the former minister

0:15:54 > 0:15:55Stephen Hammond.

0:15:55 > 0:15:58He's no relation to the Chancellor, but he is a member

0:15:58 > 0:16:01of the Treasury Select Committee and he's one of the Tory MPs named

0:16:01 > 0:16:03as "Brexit mutineers" by the Daily Telegraph

0:16:03 > 0:16:05this week - lucky him.

0:16:05 > 0:16:10I'm assured you're no relation to the Chancellor. Let's just pick up

0:16:10 > 0:16:19on what Jacob Rees Mogg was saying. How important is it to you as a

0:16:19 > 0:16:24rebel that the Government does put the date on.I agree with Jacob it

0:16:24 > 0:16:29is in the Article 50 process, the key reason it is important is the

0:16:29 > 0:16:33negotiations look like they're going to be tricky and longer than we

0:16:33 > 0:16:40expected and it may well be that we are still negotiating up until March

0:16:40 > 0:16:452019. We could have a short couple of weeks period of extension. Why do

0:16:45 > 0:16:50harm to the economy by falling out on a precise time? If those

0:16:50 > 0:16:54negotiations need to be extended. They won't go on for more than a

0:16:54 > 0:16:58couple of weeks, because there will be elections in Europe in June 2019

0:16:58 > 0:17:03and there is no chance of a new commission or Parliament dealing

0:17:03 > 0:17:10with this. Giving it flexibility and with this flexibility the government

0:17:10 > 0:17:13said it wants flexibility in negotiations, why give all the

0:17:13 > 0:17:19advantage to the other side? Part of that was evidenced yesterday by

0:17:19 > 0:17:23somebody suggesting they will ask for the Margaret Thatcher rebate to

0:17:23 > 0:17:28be suspended. That is as a result of putting the date on the bill.You

0:17:28 > 0:17:31did not agree with the Brexit committee and think it is important

0:17:31 > 0:17:36that we set the date and time?I think it is perfectly reasonable to

0:17:36 > 0:17:41set the date and time and I think these negotiations fill the time

0:17:41 > 0:17:46available. The United States and Australia agreed a free trade deal

0:17:46 > 0:17:52between April 2003 and February 2004. These things don't need to be

0:17:52 > 0:17:55interm Knabl if both sides want to agree. I think the British

0:17:55 > 0:18:01electorate would be very concerned if nearly three years after the vote

0:18:01 > 0:18:04to leave, we still hadn't left. I think most people expected that we

0:18:04 > 0:18:08would have left by now. The negotiations realistically to get

0:18:08 > 0:18:12through the approval of the European Parliament and so on need to be

0:18:12 > 0:18:17completed by at the end of next year, going up to the last minute I

0:18:17 > 0:18:21don't think is real is tick.To move on to talk about a trade deal and

0:18:21 > 0:18:28getting that done, the EU need to agree to move on and we need to

0:18:28 > 0:18:30settle the divorce, cabinet are going to be talking about the amount

0:18:30 > 0:18:37that needs to be spent on that, Stephen what manned, are you happy

0:18:37 > 0:18:41for the Government to offer more?I hope that the Government will stick

0:18:41 > 0:18:46to the Florence speech in terms of ensuring that we fulfil our

0:18:46 > 0:18:51liabilities and obligations. I'm not clear exactly whether that is 20

0:18:51 > 0:18:55billion or 40 billion and I'm not sure the government is. If part of

0:18:55 > 0:18:59the divorce bill is then some settlement for getting the trade

0:18:59 > 0:19:05deal, we will need to examine that carefully.Jacob Rees Mogg, is this

0:19:05 > 0:19:10that might spark another war in the party if the cabinet suggest they're

0:19:10 > 0:19:16prepared to pay more?I think we need to go back to what you said,

0:19:16 > 0:19:26that the - the EU said they want us to settle the money first. The

0:19:26 > 0:19:30Government doesn't need to follow that. They need our money. If we

0:19:30 > 0:19:38don't pay any money for the final 21 months of the framework, the EU has

0:19:38 > 0:19:43about 20 billion pounds gap in its finances and it has no legal

0:19:43 > 0:19:47requirement to borrow. So it insolvents or the Germans and the

0:19:47 > 0:19:51others pay more. So our position on money is very strong and we

0:19:51 > 0:19:56shouldn't fall into the trap of thinking just because Mr Barnier

0:19:56 > 0:20:01said it it is as if he has received tablets of stone like Moses, he has

0:20:01 > 0:20:10not.There is a sense that the Government feels a mo generous offer

0:20:10 > 0:20:14would set a good tone, the kind of approach that Jacob Rees Mogg

0:20:14 > 0:20:19suggests would not make for smooth relations.It probably wouldn't. But

0:20:19 > 0:20:24we have to be clear what we are paying for and what we are getting.

0:20:24 > 0:20:30No one is suggesting we should hand over money without proper scrutiny.

0:20:30 > 0:20:35It may be appropriate to put money to facilitate international trade to

0:20:35 > 0:20:39secure jobs. We have to be careful about the analysis about what the

0:20:39 > 0:20:45scale and size of Brexit dividend is and the size of payments will be.

0:20:45 > 0:20:52You mustn't confuse gross and net and there is disagreement about some

0:20:52 > 0:20:58of the numbers.On that, Jacob Rees Mogg in his budget for Brexit

0:20:58 > 0:21:03suggests in five years time we would have a 135 billion Brexit bonus. Do

0:21:03 > 0:21:10you think it is real is tick.He is using some analysis that has some

0:21:10 > 0:21:17flaws. It is predicting a price drop in the United Kingdom of 10%. Tariff

0:21:17 > 0:21:24drops will only be 3 or 4%. It is predicting huge productivity gains,

0:21:24 > 0:21:29the likes of which we have not seen in 20 years. Thirdly, despite his

0:21:29 > 0:21:34view on modellers there is evidence that they weren't and if you go into

0:21:34 > 0:21:41the detail of the analysis, some of the data is 14 years out of date.

0:21:41 > 0:21:46Jacob Rees Mogg, you're being hopelessly optimistic?I don't think

0:21:46 > 0:21:51that right. I think the fall in prices comes because you make the

0:21:51 > 0:21:55economy more competitive and you take away tariffs which reduces the

0:21:55 > 0:22:02price of food by 20%. That is a big reduction. Bear in mind that the

0:22:02 > 0:22:06biggest tariffs hit food, clothing and foot wear that, harm the poorest

0:22:06 > 0:22:13in society the most. The gains from productivity come from is in

0:22:13 > 0:22:21additional tariffs. Leading to other saving and further investment I

0:22:21 > 0:22:24think the modelling done by the professor is as good as modelling

0:22:24 > 0:22:31can be. That doesn't mean it is infallible. The failure of gravity

0:22:31 > 0:22:38model is well known.Michael Gove was accused of auditioning for the

0:22:38 > 0:22:44job of Chancellor by using long words. Do you know any good long

0:22:44 > 0:22:48economic words?I don't think that we want to get into this type of

0:22:48 > 0:22:52business actually. I think all Conservatives and Steven and I very

0:22:52 > 0:22:58much agree on this, want to show as united a front as we can manage.

0:22:58 > 0:23:02There are differences on some aspects of policy, but in terms of

0:23:02 > 0:23:04individuals we want to stand together and support the best

0:23:04 > 0:23:10interests of the government.Thank you.

0:23:10 > 0:23:12Brexit Secretary David Davis was in Berlin this week trying

0:23:12 > 0:23:15to win the support of business leaders there for a comprehensive

0:23:15 > 0:23:17free trade deal with the EU.

0:23:17 > 0:23:20He warned them against putting 'politics above prosperity'

0:23:20 > 0:23:24and reportedly got a bit of a frosty reception.

0:23:24 > 0:23:27Well, the former Labour MP Gisela Stuart was one of the leaders

0:23:27 > 0:23:29of the Vote Leave referendum campaign.

0:23:29 > 0:23:31We travelled with Gisela to Germany to meet the business leaders

0:23:31 > 0:23:34she says will help secure a good trade deal for the UK.

0:23:34 > 0:23:38Here's her film.

0:23:44 > 0:23:47I was born and brought up in this part of Germany,

0:23:47 > 0:23:50and although I've lived in the UK for the past 40 years,

0:23:50 > 0:23:55and represented the constituency of Birmingham and Edgbaston for 20

0:23:55 > 0:23:59years, my family still live here, and I've kept many links.

0:24:02 > 0:24:05I was chair of Vote Leave, and together with only a handful

0:24:05 > 0:24:08of other Labour MPs, we campaigned to leave

0:24:08 > 0:24:10the European Union because we thought the country would be

0:24:10 > 0:24:12better off outside.

0:24:12 > 0:24:15It's hard to remember now, but back in the 1970s, when we joined

0:24:15 > 0:24:19the European Economic Community, people thought that by joining

0:24:19 > 0:24:24the club we would see the kind of economic miracle Germany

0:24:24 > 0:24:26experienced in the '70s back home.

0:24:26 > 0:24:28The "Deutsche Wirtschaftswunder" would come to Britain.

0:24:28 > 0:24:33But, of course, it didn't.

0:24:35 > 0:24:38Within a few short years of the devastation of World War II,

0:24:38 > 0:24:41Germany had emerged as the largest economy in Europe.

0:24:41 > 0:24:43Germany's extraordinary success is down to

0:24:43 > 0:24:47the pragmatism of its business.

0:24:47 > 0:24:52German Mittelstand is family dominated, forward-thinking,

0:24:52 > 0:24:58long-term thinking, reliability, are very important values.

0:24:58 > 0:25:01Changing moods on a political landscape and changing frameworks

0:25:01 > 0:25:03are toxic for our way of doing business, and we want

0:25:03 > 0:25:11that to go away.

0:25:11 > 0:25:15German business is not given to making big political statements

0:25:15 > 0:25:18out of step with government policy, but talk to those in decision-making

0:25:18 > 0:25:21positions, and it is clear that they want to secure a good deal

0:25:21 > 0:25:24with the United Kingdom.

0:25:24 > 0:25:27BMW employs almost 90,000 people here in Germany,

0:25:27 > 0:25:31and exports just under 1 million cars annually.

0:25:31 > 0:25:36The UK is a vital market.

0:25:36 > 0:25:40What we are really seeking right now is more clarity, more certainty,

0:25:40 > 0:25:45because in our cycle of investment, cycle of development,

0:25:45 > 0:25:49it's about a seven-year or so period that we look at,

0:25:49 > 0:25:53but we are now, of course, starting to think about what comes next,

0:25:53 > 0:25:56and what we need to see now is what is going to be

0:25:56 > 0:25:59the trading relationship, how are the logistics going to look,

0:25:59 > 0:26:01what is going to be the requirements for people

0:26:01 > 0:26:04moving across the continent?

0:26:04 > 0:26:06Because all of these things are important to us today.

0:26:06 > 0:26:10And, by the way, they will be just as important tomorrow.

0:26:10 > 0:26:12Berlin is well aware that if the European Commission

0:26:12 > 0:26:16is allowed to put up trade barriers against Britain, it will be

0:26:16 > 0:26:18German business, German consumers and German employees

0:26:18 > 0:26:22who will suffer.

0:26:22 > 0:26:25TRANSLATION:I think it's very important that we complete

0:26:25 > 0:26:27the first phase successfully.

0:26:27 > 0:26:30The first phase of the negotiations, which looks at the financial

0:26:30 > 0:26:33consequences of Great Britain leaving the EU.

0:26:33 > 0:26:36And then it's not a question of punishment payments.

0:26:36 > 0:26:39It's about when you are part of a multilayer, contractual

0:26:39 > 0:26:42obligation and you want to leave that, then of course it takes

0:26:42 > 0:26:45a whole lot of obligations which you have to deal with,

0:26:45 > 0:26:54so both sides are satisfied and can live with the consequences.

0:26:54 > 0:26:59It isn't everyone's interests for the UK to part on good terms.

0:26:59 > 0:27:02Of course there was going to be upset when the UK voted to leave,

0:27:02 > 0:27:06but creating uncertainty over the terms of UK's exit will simply

0:27:06 > 0:27:11have a disruptive effect on exports to UK markets.

0:27:11 > 0:27:14Far better to have a sensible, amicable negotiation that results

0:27:14 > 0:27:17both sides being able to trade together and work

0:27:17 > 0:27:24together post-Brexit.

0:27:24 > 0:27:25Markus Krall is managing director of Goetzpartners,

0:27:25 > 0:27:27and heads the Financial Institution Industry Group.

0:27:27 > 0:27:32Is it true to say that, if we negotiate Brexit well,

0:27:32 > 0:27:34then a good Brexit can actually strengthen the United Kingdom,

0:27:34 > 0:27:36the European Union and Germany?

0:27:36 > 0:27:38It's absolutely true.

0:27:38 > 0:27:41I think that this is about two things.

0:27:41 > 0:27:46One, about proving that free trade is possible

0:27:46 > 0:27:49between a European Union that is smaller and a former member country.

0:27:49 > 0:27:52If you don't prove that free trade is possible there,

0:27:52 > 0:27:56then the question becomes, what is Europe standing for?

0:27:56 > 0:28:01Number two is, I also believe the free trade,

0:28:01 > 0:28:05free market and democratic and less bureaucratic approach that Britain

0:28:05 > 0:28:08has chosen as the path into the future is a role

0:28:08 > 0:28:11model for Europe.

0:28:11 > 0:28:14The time has come both for the United Kingdom

0:28:14 > 0:28:16and for the EU to be more clear about what kind of

0:28:16 > 0:28:19deal we can achieve.

0:28:19 > 0:28:21Both sides need to be bold.

0:28:21 > 0:28:24As long as we remain open to free trade and sensible co-operation,

0:28:24 > 0:28:29we can arrive at something that will benefit both sides.

0:28:29 > 0:28:33But one thing's obvious - if we are an open and free trading

0:28:33 > 0:28:35economy, we've got one big cheerleader on our side,

0:28:35 > 0:28:41and that is German business.

0:28:41 > 0:28:43That was Gisela Stuart setting out her case

0:28:43 > 0:28:45and we'll be hearing from the opposite side

0:28:45 > 0:28:47of the argument in the coming weeks.

0:28:47 > 0:28:50Gisela Stuart joins us in the studio now, as does Alastair Campbell.

0:28:50 > 0:28:53He used to work for Tony Blair in Number 10, set up

0:28:53 > 0:28:54the New European Newspaper to campaign against Brexit,

0:28:54 > 0:28:57and is so pro-European that at this year's Labour conference

0:28:57 > 0:28:59he was heard playing Ode to Joy on the bagpipes.

0:28:59 > 0:29:04Welcome both of you.

0:29:04 > 0:29:09We will start with your point in the film, that you think the German

0:29:09 > 0:29:14business once the EU to offer the UK a generous deal because it is in

0:29:14 > 0:29:18their interests, yet the president of the German equivalent of the CBI

0:29:18 > 0:29:23said that defending the single market must be the priority for the

0:29:23 > 0:29:29EU, and another says that the cohesion of the remaining member

0:29:29 > 0:29:35states remains the highest priority. The president of the CBI just after

0:29:35 > 0:29:40the referendum said that it would be in nobody 's interest to introduce

0:29:40 > 0:29:48tariffs and trade barriers. On the UK side, I don't think there's a

0:29:48 > 0:29:52full understanding that economic interests are incredibly important,

0:29:52 > 0:29:59that they are trying to cover economic interests on the cohesion

0:29:59 > 0:30:03of the 27. I think different economic interests will raise the

0:30:03 > 0:30:11head of different countries. The German auto industry is as important

0:30:11 > 0:30:17as the financial sector is here. The banking crisis is far from over, but

0:30:17 > 0:30:23the big riffs which were going on is that the E U is losing its second

0:30:23 > 0:30:27biggest net contributor. Countries like Germany want a deal with the UK

0:30:27 > 0:30:34that is a free open market. There are other tensions in the EU that

0:30:34 > 0:30:38wants to become more protectionist, and that is a bad thing.Looking at

0:30:38 > 0:30:46the film there with the Jacob Rees-Mogg interview. No matter what

0:30:46 > 0:30:51side of leave you are, it is delusional and all driven by wishful

0:30:51 > 0:30:55thinking. You could find a businessman who says Brexit will be

0:30:55 > 0:30:59good for Germany. The vast bulk of British businesses think this is a

0:30:59 > 0:31:04disaster, as do the vast bulk of European businesses. One of the

0:31:04 > 0:31:08delusions on which they ran their campaign is the idea that they need

0:31:08 > 0:31:15us more than we need them. That is not true.Be you self about £80

0:31:15 > 0:31:20billion more in goods and services into the UK than we do to them, and

0:31:20 > 0:31:24Germany has one of the biggest deficits. It is in their interest.

0:31:24 > 0:31:30Of course it is, but it is a myth that they need us more than we need

0:31:30 > 0:31:36them. The damage that will be done to us, even with a good deal. Let's

0:31:36 > 0:31:42be frank, where these negotiations are, Theresa May is either going to

0:31:42 > 0:31:49end up with a bad deal and dumber or no Deal. A bad deal is bad, and a no

0:31:49 > 0:31:56deal is a catastrophe.You are setting up ideas that which were not

0:31:56 > 0:32:03there to begin with and knocking them down. Delusional.35 billion,

0:32:03 > 0:32:08the Brexit bonus.If we had a referendum, it was a democratic

0:32:08 > 0:32:11decision. I know you don't like it and that a lot of business would

0:32:11 > 0:32:16have preferred to stay with the status quo. We have had the

0:32:16 > 0:32:21referendum. Undermining political institutions is in no one's

0:32:21 > 0:32:27interests. It is functioning democracies which lead to economic

0:32:27 > 0:32:34stability.Theresa May fought an election Inc on a hard Brexit that

0:32:34 > 0:32:47was rejected.As we heard from BMW, there is uncertainty for business.

0:32:47 > 0:32:52There will be elections, European elections, in 2019. There will be a

0:32:52 > 0:32:57change of the Commission and the parliament. We have a narrow window

0:32:57 > 0:33:01to implement the mandate for the referendum which Parliament voted

0:33:01 > 0:33:08for. So rather than you undermining this country, why don't you work

0:33:08 > 0:33:12together to get the best deal? Because we totally disagree.You

0:33:12 > 0:33:18don't want a good deal?I'm in favour of a good deal, and I could

0:33:18 > 0:33:24give them some advice as to how they get a good deal. First, you have a

0:33:24 > 0:33:30cabinet that has an agreed strategy. 18 months in, they don't have that.

0:33:30 > 0:33:35I am not undermining a deal. I am continuing to pose questions about

0:33:35 > 0:33:41what they are trying to do and how they are trying to do it. This is

0:33:41 > 0:33:46democracy. Democracy is the ability for Parliament, which is not doing

0:33:46 > 0:33:50its job properly, and the public, to keep scrutinising, and if they want

0:33:50 > 0:33:57to change their mind, having the right to do that.You were trying to

0:33:57 > 0:34:01encourage the Taoiseach yesterday to play hardball with the UK.I am on

0:34:01 > 0:34:06the side of the UK, and I am worried that if we go down the path that we

0:34:06 > 0:34:11are being taken down, and Theresa May and Boris Johnson and the rest

0:34:11 > 0:34:16of them, this shambolic path, we are going to do fundamental, lasting

0:34:16 > 0:34:21damage to the country we love. I don't care about the Civil Aviation

0:34:21 > 0:34:27Authority. I care about Britain. -- I don't care about the European

0:34:27 > 0:34:35Union. If every lorry going into the UK today was stopped for just two

0:34:35 > 0:34:41minutes, we would create an instant 17 mile traffic jam. These people

0:34:41 > 0:34:51just don't care...I am not these people! Let us not conflate... You

0:34:51 > 0:34:55either decide that you are implementing a democratic decision

0:34:55 > 0:35:01of a referendum that was called and over 17 million voted.You will not

0:35:01 > 0:35:09stop me debating it. Just as Nigel Farage...Stop talking about Nigel

0:35:09 > 0:35:20Farrell Raj. Vote Leave was not Nigel Farage. There is no desire in

0:35:20 > 0:35:25Germany to punish the United Kingdom.They are behaving

0:35:25 > 0:35:29reasonably.There is a battle of protectionism and free market going

0:35:29 > 0:35:35on. If we implement this properly, give businesses the kind of

0:35:35 > 0:35:41incentives they want, we can get a good deal. So you want a bad deal?

0:35:41 > 0:35:48You are driven by wishful thinking. Gisela Stuart, you are saying that

0:35:48 > 0:35:52business will intervene to prevent things like tariffs being put in

0:35:52 > 0:35:57place? They are leaving it a bit late to put pressure on.You will

0:35:57 > 0:36:00find that business is laying out the kind of things they need to get

0:36:00 > 0:36:05those deals. I can find as much fault with the speed of the

0:36:05 > 0:36:09progress, but what I really do resent is that you are actually

0:36:09 > 0:36:18encouraging other countries to undermine...Know I am not! I spoke

0:36:18 > 0:36:21out in support of the Irish Taoiseach because I spent a lot of

0:36:21 > 0:36:25time with Tony Blair and his team on the Good Friday Agreement. The

0:36:25 > 0:36:29people who are driving this hard Brexit without thinking it through,

0:36:29 > 0:36:35still no answer on how you do Brexit in our island without a hard border.

0:36:35 > 0:36:43I think the Irish Taoiseach is right to call out the government on the

0:36:43 > 0:36:47incompetence and the fact they have not thought it through.You accept

0:36:47 > 0:36:52the result of the referendum and the fact that we will be leaving the EU?

0:36:52 > 0:36:57I accept the result of the referendum, but I do not accept that

0:36:57 > 0:37:01the country will definitely leave, because the country is entitled to

0:37:01 > 0:37:07change its mind. As the chaos and costs mount, the public is entitled

0:37:07 > 0:37:12to change its mind and will change its mind.There is no evidence at

0:37:12 > 0:37:21the moment.Come out with me!Allow me to finish the sentence. There is

0:37:21 > 0:37:27a changing of mind happening, a crystallisation. Unlike you, I have

0:37:27 > 0:37:33fought five elections and I have won five elections. I have probably

0:37:33 > 0:37:38spoken to more people like you.You may do, I'm just saying, come out on

0:37:38 > 0:37:44the road with me...40% of the population in the middle just want

0:37:44 > 0:37:50us to get on with it. What that film showed is that if you want to make

0:37:50 > 0:37:55it a self-fulfilling prophecy that it's a disaster, which I don't. I

0:37:55 > 0:38:01want to implement a deal that is good for British jobs. The rest of

0:38:01 > 0:38:08the world is changing in terms of technology. Currently, Germany

0:38:08 > 0:38:14hasn't even got a government, and nobody is laughing about that.And

0:38:14 > 0:38:18they are stable without a government!Let's leave it there.

0:38:18 > 0:38:21It's coming up to 11.40, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

0:38:21 > 0:38:23Coming up on the programme, we'll be looking at the latest

0:38:23 > 0:38:26opinion polls and we'll bring you the results of our moodbox

0:38:26 > 0:38:28asking whether Phllip Hammond or John McDonnell should be running

0:38:28 > 0:38:38the economy.

0:38:38 > 0:38:41In the East Midlands, time for the age of austerity to and?

0:38:41 > 0:38:44One of the region's senior Conservative MPs calls

0:38:44 > 0:38:47for an age of investment.

0:38:47 > 0:38:50We are in part of the East Midlands where austerity is over,

0:38:50 > 0:38:52as the council decides to invest millions in infrastructure.

0:38:52 > 0:38:53And getting young people into politics.

0:38:53 > 0:38:56Who has the best policies, and what do young people

0:38:56 > 0:39:00want from politicians?

0:39:00 > 0:39:05They concentrate on things that affect them more than

0:39:05 > 0:39:06affect the other generation they are leaving behind.

0:39:06 > 0:39:08And they are not really that bothered about

0:39:08 > 0:39:10what the leave for them.

0:39:10 > 0:39:11Hello.

0:39:11 > 0:39:14My guests this week, two relatively youthful politicians,

0:39:14 > 0:39:17and both new faces on the national political scene, having been elected

0:39:17 > 0:39:19to Westminster in this year's General Election.

0:39:19 > 0:39:22Ben Bradley is the Conservative MP for Mansfield.

0:39:22 > 0:39:25Alex Norris is Labour's MP for Nottingham North.

0:39:25 > 0:39:30Welcome to you both.

0:39:30 > 0:39:33The region has been living up to its reputation for rebellion this

0:39:33 > 0:39:36week with our politicians in the news over Brexit.

0:39:36 > 0:39:43A front page in the Daily Telegraph this week tells the story.

0:39:43 > 0:39:46The paper picks out what it called the Brexit mutineers,

0:39:46 > 0:39:49featuring three prominent East Midlands Conservative MPs,

0:39:49 > 0:39:52in the shape of Ken Clarke, Anna Soubry and Nicky Morgan.

0:39:52 > 0:39:54Anna Soubry said the reporting had led to threats

0:39:54 > 0:39:55being made against her.

0:39:55 > 0:39:57According to my office, they have just reported about five

0:39:57 > 0:40:01if not more leads to the police issuing threats against myself

0:40:01 > 0:40:09following the front-page article and today's Daily Telegraph.

0:40:09 > 0:40:12Would you therefore make it very clear to everybody in whatever

0:40:12 > 0:40:18capacity that they have an absolute duty to report responsibly and make

0:40:18 > 0:40:22sure they use language that actually brings our country together?

0:40:22 > 0:40:24Ben Bradley, Anna Soubry says her office has reported

0:40:24 > 0:40:26at least five threats made to her through social media

0:40:26 > 0:40:27following those mutineer headlines.

0:40:27 > 0:40:32What do you make of that?

0:40:32 > 0:40:34There is no excuse for that.

0:40:34 > 0:40:37I don't think the headlines were particularly helpful.

0:40:37 > 0:40:41It's important that we have a debate and that people are able to explain

0:40:41 > 0:40:43what their view of Brexit is and to dissect that legislation,

0:40:43 > 0:40:46that's what we are there for.

0:40:46 > 0:40:50We all think it is helpful and not depending what we want to get

0:40:50 > 0:40:51out at the end of it.

0:40:51 > 0:41:00I don't agree with a lot of what Anna and Nicky say

0:41:00 > 0:41:03in the chamber in the debate, but it is important we are allowed

0:41:03 > 0:41:06to have that without being criticised in that way for doing it.

0:41:06 > 0:41:08Alex Norris, you have just arrived in Parliament.

0:41:08 > 0:41:09Were you expecting this kind of high-level emotion?

0:41:09 > 0:41:10Not in this way.

0:41:10 > 0:41:13We expect people to disagree and for legislation to be dissected

0:41:13 > 0:41:16as Ben talked about, but for people to be singled out

0:41:16 > 0:41:18basically for intimidation I think is really wrong.

0:41:18 > 0:41:21Anna and I disagree on a lot of things because we generally vote

0:41:21 > 0:41:22on opposite things on every vote.

0:41:22 > 0:41:26But she should never be put up like that just for holding the views

0:41:26 > 0:41:28she has and for frankly doing her job.

0:41:28 > 0:41:29Despite all the noise the government's legislation

0:41:29 > 0:41:30is going through.

0:41:30 > 0:41:31Can Labour land any blows?

0:41:31 > 0:41:34We're already starting to see the majority, narrow that it is,

0:41:34 > 0:41:35starting to crumble.

0:41:35 > 0:41:36Are we?

0:41:36 > 0:41:39The votes in the second they were a lot closer than the first.

0:41:39 > 0:41:43I think we're already seeing number ten started to talk

0:41:43 > 0:41:46about changes they have to make because there are Conservative

0:41:46 > 0:41:47MPs who agree with us.

0:41:47 > 0:41:49There are six more days of discussion on it.

0:41:49 > 0:41:51So yes, we will keep landing those blows.

0:41:51 > 0:41:53Still time for rebels to rebel as well.

0:41:53 > 0:41:55There are Labour MPs who agree with us as well.

0:41:55 > 0:41:58It's one of those that in Brexit, the referendum is almost not along

0:41:58 > 0:42:01party lines as much, and it is interesting to see

0:42:01 > 0:42:04which way it will go.

0:42:04 > 0:42:07But at the minute we are carrying it through and I think

0:42:07 > 0:42:08that will continue.

0:42:08 > 0:42:10Some really positive changes in the bill.

0:42:10 > 0:42:13I was desperate to see the date on the front of it.

0:42:13 > 0:42:15I hope it comes off, I think it will.

0:42:15 > 0:42:17Next, an end to austerity and billions of pounds

0:42:17 > 0:42:18invested into the economy.

0:42:18 > 0:42:21No, it's not the Labour manifesto, it's what one of our Conservative

0:42:21 > 0:42:24MPs wants to see from the Chancellor in this week's budget.

0:42:24 > 0:42:27Nick Boles, the MP for Grantham & Stamford, says he wants

0:42:27 > 0:42:29an age of investment, and his local council is putting

0:42:29 > 0:42:32their money where his mouth is, taking millions of pounds out

0:42:32 > 0:42:34of its own reserves to spend on boosting the economy.

0:42:34 > 0:42:40Our political editor has been to Stamford to find out more.

0:42:40 > 0:42:43Nick Boles says the age of posterity is over and what's needed now

0:42:43 > 0:42:46is an age of investment.

0:42:46 > 0:42:50In here are two people trying to put that into practice.

0:42:50 > 0:42:53They are the Tory new guard running South Kesteven council,

0:42:53 > 0:42:56taking in Stamford, Grantham, Bourne, and The Deepings.

0:42:56 > 0:43:01The leader, Matthew Lee, is in his 30s, and supplements his

0:43:01 > 0:43:04councillor income by working as a train guard, where

0:43:04 > 0:43:06he is also a union official.

0:43:06 > 0:43:09His deputy is Kelham Cooke, at 27 he also has a job working

0:43:09 > 0:43:14for Grantham and Stamford MP Nick Boles.

0:43:14 > 0:43:18By deciding to invest £40 million of council

0:43:18 > 0:43:21reserves in infrastructure, they are enacting some

0:43:21 > 0:43:25of the MP's new ideas.

0:43:25 > 0:43:28If we can take a small investment and work with the private sector,

0:43:28 > 0:43:30the multiple effect on the economy is huge, meaning new jobs,

0:43:30 > 0:43:33better pay, better opportunities, young people not having to move away

0:43:33 > 0:43:35from the district.

0:43:35 > 0:43:37This is a pragmatic approach.

0:43:37 > 0:43:41Nick Boles has probably is on blueprint for a massive boost

0:43:41 > 0:43:43in future investment.

0:43:43 > 0:43:47It would mean scrapping the deficit reduction target,

0:43:47 > 0:43:52which would also lead to increasing productivity to boost wages.

0:43:52 > 0:43:54He has also suggested raising £50 billion on the financial markets,

0:43:54 > 0:43:57with a Grenfell housing bond and capping the profits

0:43:57 > 0:43:59of wealthy landlords.

0:43:59 > 0:44:03John McDonnell has sent him a Labour Party application form.

0:44:03 > 0:44:06He is repeating exactly what I have been saying for two years,

0:44:06 > 0:44:08and what we're saying is posterity should be ended now

0:44:08 > 0:44:10because it hasn't worked.

0:44:10 > 0:44:12And because of austerity we have not invested

0:44:12 > 0:44:15in our economy for seven years, and as a result we have

0:44:15 > 0:44:17a in productivity.

0:44:17 > 0:44:21That means we have not got the high wages coming into an area

0:44:21 > 0:44:25like this particular one and across the country.

0:44:25 > 0:44:26That means ordinary households are suffering.

0:44:26 > 0:44:31The Shadow Chancellor was in the East Midlands

0:44:31 > 0:44:33ahead of the budget.

0:44:33 > 0:44:35He doesn't believe councils spending reserves is

0:44:35 > 0:44:36the right course to take.

0:44:36 > 0:44:39What we need is a government to be investing, working

0:44:39 > 0:44:41alongside local government, so we have stable and consistent

0:44:41 > 0:44:43investment in infrastructure, skills and public services.

0:44:43 > 0:44:45Back in Stamford, and housing, affordable housing, is one

0:44:45 > 0:44:48of the priorities Nick Boles has in what he calls his square deal.

0:44:48 > 0:44:56Unsurprisingly, views echoed by his local councillors.

0:44:56 > 0:45:02You've got to work with the residents but already

0:45:02 > 0:45:05there but also accept that we have targets that the government sets,

0:45:05 > 0:45:08and we have to build houses.

0:45:08 > 0:45:10What do you want from the budget on Wednesday?

0:45:10 > 0:45:13The government has reduced our money year after year, asked us to become

0:45:13 > 0:45:14more commercial and more forward-thinking

0:45:14 > 0:45:16and more innovative.

0:45:16 > 0:45:18We need help to get on and do that.

0:45:18 > 0:45:21I look for the budget particularly enabling local government

0:45:21 > 0:45:24to deliver governments, to deliver for the local

0:45:24 > 0:45:28communities, and to remove some of the things that higher hands

0:45:28 > 0:45:32to do that.

0:45:32 > 0:45:35We don't know what's in the budget, we do know that in this part

0:45:35 > 0:45:38of the East Midlands at least there's going to be investment

0:45:38 > 0:45:46to bring and keep jobs here.

0:45:46 > 0:45:52Ben, what do you make of this plan to read the reserves

0:45:52 > 0:45:55to the tune of £40 million?

0:45:55 > 0:45:57Nick and I are quite similar, politically.

0:45:57 > 0:46:02I supported his office while he was ill last year,

0:46:02 > 0:46:05and I agree with much of what he said.

0:46:05 > 0:46:07I think we do need to invest in part of our economy,

0:46:07 > 0:46:10and councils across Nottinghamshire are sat on hundreds of millions

0:46:10 > 0:46:12of pounds in reserves, I sat with my Chief Executive

0:46:12 > 0:46:15in Mansfield last week and said, this is rainy day money, in essence,

0:46:15 > 0:46:19how rainy does it have to be for you to dip into that fund?

0:46:19 > 0:46:20The rain is falling.

0:46:20 > 0:46:21Absolutely.

0:46:21 > 0:46:23And if you are complaining that your budget is lower,

0:46:23 > 0:46:26you've got that money, and that's what it is there for.

0:46:26 > 0:46:28It is there to invest in housing and infrastructure,

0:46:28 > 0:46:29I think it should be used.

0:46:29 > 0:46:32Alex, you were a Nottingham City Council until you

0:46:32 > 0:46:33were elected in June.

0:46:33 > 0:46:36What do you make of the plan to raid council reserves like this?

0:46:36 > 0:46:38It is a rainy day, is it time to use them?

0:46:38 > 0:46:39Absolutely.

0:46:39 > 0:46:41Firstly, councils are not sat on big reserves,

0:46:41 > 0:46:44often those reserves are either earmarked for work that is ongoing,

0:46:44 > 0:46:47in Nottingham we have a big reserves because much of it goes

0:46:47 > 0:46:49into the tram on an annual basis.

0:46:49 > 0:46:51But South Kesteven has reserves of 60 million in total.

0:46:51 > 0:46:53They are planning to use this 40 million.

0:46:53 > 0:46:56And they are putting it to work, which is what we have been doing

0:46:56 > 0:46:58in Nottingham since 2011 and during my years there,

0:46:58 > 0:47:01because it does stimulate the economy, it does get jobs going.

0:47:01 > 0:47:05The problem is on a local level that is not enough and it won't do

0:47:05 > 0:47:06enough for the British economy.

0:47:06 > 0:47:08We need the government in Wednesday's budget to say,

0:47:08 > 0:47:11austerity has not worked, we need to invest in our economy,

0:47:11 > 0:47:13get jobs and skills going, and we will have a better country

0:47:13 > 0:47:15for it.

0:47:15 > 0:47:17We have had the slowest recovery on written record

0:47:17 > 0:47:18from a British recession.

0:47:18 > 0:47:20In America right away Barack Obama invested in infrastructure,

0:47:20 > 0:47:22and they had a really robust and good recovery,

0:47:22 > 0:47:23and we have lagged behind.

0:47:23 > 0:47:25We are lagging behind, Ben, and your fellow Conservative

0:47:25 > 0:47:27MP Nick Bowles wants an age of investment.

0:47:27 > 0:47:29Time to end austerity.

0:47:29 > 0:47:39Nick's argument is very much that austerity has worked

0:47:42 > 0:47:44has come down from 10% to 2%

0:47:44 > 0:47:47That is a manageable level, let's use that and use that stable

0:47:47 > 0:47:50economy that we've built over the last seven years to able

0:47:50 > 0:47:52to invest with that backing of a stable national economy,

0:47:52 > 0:47:55and utilise the funds that are sat there to be used.

0:47:55 > 0:47:58And I hope we will see plans in the budget next week for some

0:47:58 > 0:48:00government investment in these things as well.

0:48:00 > 0:48:03But there is that money there on a local basis and local

0:48:03 > 0:48:05councils can have a huge impact in the area.

0:48:05 > 0:48:07Can we afford to relax the tight hand in public spending?

0:48:07 > 0:48:10Absolutely, because the point is, if you invest locally you get that

0:48:10 > 0:48:13return back into the Exchequer, whether it is through VAT,

0:48:13 > 0:48:15income tax, a growing economy is good for everyone.

0:48:15 > 0:48:17It is growing revenues for government and you can

0:48:17 > 0:48:18continue to invest.

0:48:18 > 0:48:20It is sound economics that has worked spectacularly

0:48:20 > 0:48:21well in America.

0:48:21 > 0:48:24But everyone wants to know here, where is that money could come from?

0:48:24 > 0:48:25Of course. Governments can borrow.

0:48:25 > 0:48:28It is something all governments do, it is a very healthy way,

0:48:28 > 0:48:31provided the return on that investment is more than you borrow.

0:48:31 > 0:48:32But it increases the national debt.

0:48:32 > 0:48:36It does, but as long as you get a return for that money than it

0:48:36 > 0:48:37makes a very good business case.

0:48:37 > 0:48:39The private sector does it all the time,

0:48:39 > 0:48:41and it is what we can do as well.

0:48:41 > 0:48:44In that particular Council, the money is already there.

0:48:44 > 0:48:46Why borrow when there is money sat there?

0:48:46 > 0:48:48Ending austerity does not mean a free hand of spending.

0:48:48 > 0:48:50We still have to be careful of what we're spending

0:48:50 > 0:48:52and building for the future.

0:48:52 > 0:48:54Where there is money available we should use it.

0:48:54 > 0:48:56You have been calling for more investment in Mansfield.

0:48:56 > 0:48:57Do you think you will get that?

0:48:57 > 0:48:59I hope so.

0:48:59 > 0:49:01I have had a lot of positive conversations with the Secretary

0:49:01 > 0:49:03of State for Transport and various other things.

0:49:03 > 0:49:06The Home Secretary was in Mansfield the other week, and trying to talk

0:49:06 > 0:49:09about the particular issues we have and what we need from the Treasury.

0:49:09 > 0:49:11What do you need for Mansfield?

0:49:11 > 0:49:14It is a former coalfield, it has been left behind for a long

0:49:14 > 0:49:15time by governments of all colours.

0:49:15 > 0:49:17We need to improve our transport infrastructure,

0:49:17 > 0:49:20there is a lot of things, some of which we can support

0:49:20 > 0:49:22locally and some we need government help for.

0:49:22 > 0:49:25Alex, what would you like to see come out of the budget this week?

0:49:25 > 0:49:27Something really strong around housing, allowing councils

0:49:27 > 0:49:30to build housing so we can tackle housing shortage.

0:49:30 > 0:49:38We would like to see the main line electrification,

0:49:38 > 0:49:40the business case, again talking about investing

0:49:40 > 0:49:42money the government would get money back for.

0:49:42 > 0:49:46Those are the sort of things we would look for.

0:49:46 > 0:49:47Hasn't that gone away?

0:49:47 > 0:49:50It has, but we keep it on the parliamentary agenda,

0:49:50 > 0:49:52we raise it with ministers of the time.

0:49:52 > 0:49:55It is still a very good idea, whether or not they have

0:49:55 > 0:49:56realised that quite yet.

0:49:56 > 0:49:57If they are saying investing in things,

0:49:57 > 0:49:59that is the sort of thing.

0:49:59 > 0:50:01What about in your constituency in Nottingham North?

0:50:01 > 0:50:03Again, we benefit significantly from housing, that is

0:50:03 > 0:50:04a real challenge for us.

0:50:04 > 0:50:06We benefit from investment into schools, because every single

0:50:06 > 0:50:12one of our schools under current plans will lose money.

0:50:12 > 0:50:14That's not one-off money, that is an annual commitment

0:50:14 > 0:50:18to our young people.

0:50:18 > 0:50:21That is something I have been raising in Parliament

0:50:21 > 0:50:23from the first week, because it is a really bad idea

0:50:23 > 0:50:26to reduce the quality of education to our young people.

0:50:26 > 0:50:28Because again, the cost on the economy later is much greater.

0:50:28 > 0:50:31And from the budget, what would you like to see, Ben?

0:50:31 > 0:50:32Some similar things, investment in housing,

0:50:32 > 0:50:36I think we have to take a fairly radical approach if we are to keep

0:50:36 > 0:50:38up with the levels of housing that we need.

0:50:38 > 0:50:41I'd like to see investment in some of that infrastructure and actually

0:50:41 > 0:50:43a narrative for equalising things a bit.

0:50:43 > 0:50:46I talk a lot about younger voters, we will talk about that later,

0:50:46 > 0:50:50but I like to see a story about how we help younger people to get

0:50:50 > 0:50:53on the housing ladder, to get more secure jobs and the kind

0:50:53 > 0:50:54of education they deserve.

0:50:54 > 0:50:56And what about bringing an end to austerity to help them?

0:50:56 > 0:50:59I think we need to move on from talking about cutting back

0:50:59 > 0:51:01on things, but actually...

0:51:01 > 0:51:05But things are still being cut back on.

0:51:05 > 0:51:07We have been talking about austerity.

0:51:07 > 0:51:12Most budgets across most national sectors have been

0:51:12 > 0:51:14rising, not falling.

0:51:14 > 0:51:16Local government have lost 40% in real terms.

0:51:16 > 0:51:18I've been a councillor, South Kesteven will spend

0:51:18 > 0:51:21their reserves, they will no doubt do the best they can with it.

0:51:21 > 0:51:25The annual budget.

0:51:25 > 0:51:28The cut, so they will be rationing health care for older

0:51:28 > 0:51:29people, they will be doing less youth services.

0:51:29 > 0:51:31They don't have to be.

0:51:31 > 0:51:32That capital money is there to invest.

0:51:32 > 0:51:35To make the reforms of me could work in the future.

0:51:35 > 0:51:38I know you're very interested in homelessness, you can't prop up

0:51:38 > 0:51:40homelessness services with money from your reserves, because what do

0:51:40 > 0:51:41you do the next year?

0:51:41 > 0:51:43You have to have proper government investment,

0:51:43 > 0:51:45and the sort of monopoly money stuff doesn't work.

0:51:45 > 0:51:47As I mentioned earlier, we have two relatively young

0:51:47 > 0:51:50politicians in the studio, and at the age of 27 Ben Bradley

0:51:50 > 0:51:55is one of the Conservative Party's hopes for winning back the young

0:51:55 > 0:51:57but they lost to Labour in the last election.

0:51:57 > 0:52:00But will it work, and how do we get more young people

0:52:00 > 0:52:01involved in politics?

0:52:01 > 0:52:09Our reporter Tim Parker has been finding out.

0:52:09 > 0:52:12It's the less glamorous side of politics, out

0:52:12 > 0:52:13It's the less glamorous side of politics, out on the streets in the

0:52:13 > 0:52:18wet. But it does not put off Georgia Power, who has just become a

0:52:18 > 0:52:21Nottingham city councillor. What are our friends think of her passion for

0:52:21 > 0:52:26politics?My friends are involved in politics, so that is no surprise to

0:52:26 > 0:52:30them. The ones that are not involved think I am completely mad. But as

0:52:30 > 0:52:36long as they think I'm mad in the garden built, I don't mind.By any

0:52:36 > 0:52:38measure Labour was by far the most popular party with young voters in

0:52:38 > 0:52:45the last election. On the other side of the political divide, Jack is a

0:52:45 > 0:52:48teacher and chairs the Leicester Conservatives. He has this warning

0:52:48 > 0:52:54for young voters.If you don't get involved in politics, and the often

0:52:54 > 0:52:57see the cleverest don't get involved, what happens is that

0:52:57 > 0:53:00people that are not as clever as you and making the decisions. I would

0:53:00 > 0:53:04say take an interest in politics because laws affect us all. We all

0:53:04 > 0:53:11have to pay tax and VAT. If you don't take an interest in politics

0:53:11 > 0:53:17then you take those decisions out of your own hands.Not quite in his

0:53:17 > 0:53:2020s, Ian Fox from Leicester is the proud owner of one of the youngest

0:53:20 > 0:53:26parties in the country. He's just set it up himself.We believe that

0:53:26 > 0:53:30the left and the right have gone a little bit left and a little bit

0:53:30 > 0:53:36right, and the rest of us, me, the ordinary person, who normally find

0:53:36 > 0:53:42politics boring, is stuck in the middle and we need a change. We need

0:53:42 > 0:53:46to do something positive. Bring young people in, because we need

0:53:46 > 0:53:54them. I won't be here in 20 years, they will.All parties agree they

0:53:54 > 0:53:57need a clear message for young voters. The challenge is getting

0:53:57 > 0:54:04that message across.

0:54:04 > 0:54:10Then, you lead a group of under 35 Conservative members, you try to

0:54:10 > 0:54:16change the image of the party. It sounds like a challenge.Part of the

0:54:16 > 0:54:19challenge of the policy and trying to get things right to paint a

0:54:19 > 0:54:23picture of the future for people. We don't want to live in a society

0:54:23 > 0:54:27where younger people feel they will be worse off than their parents. We

0:54:27 > 0:54:29need to support people with the things we have been talking about,

0:54:29 > 0:54:34housing, education, rewarding work full stop some of it is an image

0:54:34 > 0:54:43thing.How do you change that? You cannot change the politicians.The

0:54:43 > 0:54:47view of politicians is a certain thing, and older grey bloke who says

0:54:47 > 0:54:52things and does things in a certain way. We have got a diverse party. My

0:54:52 > 0:54:57group is 19 Conservative MPs under 35. We have men and women, parents,

0:54:57 > 0:55:01from different backgrounds. It is a diverse little group and we can with

0:55:01 > 0:55:05the engage with people in a different way.Alex, Labour had a

0:55:05 > 0:55:09lot of policies of interest to younger voters at the election,

0:55:09 > 0:55:12ending zero hours contracts for example, and paid internships

0:55:12 > 0:55:17ending. But one charge levelled against the party was that you

0:55:17 > 0:55:22tricked younger voters to vote for you. You said you in tuition fees,

0:55:22 > 0:55:24there was also hints that you would tackle debt burdens for existing

0:55:24 > 0:55:31graduates.Let me start by saying I don't think problems reaching young

0:55:31 > 0:55:34people is about image, adding that is a bit patronising. It is about

0:55:34 > 0:55:40policies. Student fees have been tripled, it is hard to get housing,

0:55:40 > 0:55:44getting secure work without stagnant wages is with difficult. People are

0:55:44 > 0:55:49asking, why are the first generation to be worse off under parents? Our

0:55:49 > 0:55:53manifesto policy and student fees was really clear, page 44, we will

0:55:53 > 0:55:57cancel tuition fees, there will be no tuition fees going forward. We

0:55:57 > 0:56:00didn't make an explicit commitment of a current levels of debt, only

0:56:00 > 0:56:04that we would look at it, and that was a commitment we made. We didn't

0:56:04 > 0:56:11trick anyone, we were clear about the offer. We were happy to say is

0:56:11 > 0:56:13what we can offer, you is what the current comment is giving you, and

0:56:13 > 0:56:16lead people to make a choice. We don't need to patronise them with

0:56:16 > 0:56:23the image thing.Images and important?I don't think it's

0:56:23 > 0:56:26patronising to see a lot of people, does representatives of all parties

0:56:26 > 0:56:31who are not relate to bow to younger people. A lot of people I speak to,

0:56:31 > 0:56:39friends of mine, say, what is this guy, this pensioner, now but my

0:56:39 > 0:56:43life? That is the reality for people we had to show that politics is more

0:56:43 > 0:56:50diverse.It is estimated that a large proportion of young people

0:56:50 > 0:56:52voted Labour, perhaps you should face up to facts that you have lost

0:56:52 > 0:56:57the young vote.We talk about young people, voters under the age of

0:56:57 > 0:57:00about 45 moved away from the Conservative Party. It is not a case

0:57:00 > 0:57:03of tuition fees of those particular things, it is broader issues around

0:57:03 > 0:57:10housing, work, education. It's not a case of some silver bullet policy to

0:57:10 > 0:57:12fix our engagement with young people. It is a case of what is

0:57:12 > 0:57:17broader vision the future.Let's hear from some young voters. Tim has

0:57:17 > 0:57:22been speaking to young people in Leicester.They concentrate on

0:57:22 > 0:57:25things that affect them more than affect the other generation now

0:57:25 > 0:57:29leaving behind. And they're not really that bothered about what the

0:57:29 > 0:57:34leave for them.There's not enough publicity about certain things that

0:57:34 > 0:57:38we should know about, or it is talked about enough.Parties are not

0:57:38 > 0:57:43interested young person vote because they are saying we do not engage,

0:57:43 > 0:57:47personally I think we do, but we're not listen to enough.Not being

0:57:47 > 0:57:53listened to.That's never a great reflection on politicians. I've only

0:57:53 > 0:57:58had five months and nine days at it, hope when people of all ages made me

0:57:58 > 0:58:01they find I do listen. I might not always be able to do the things they

0:58:01 > 0:58:04want, but I try my hardest and do my best to represent the community.

0:58:04 > 0:58:09That's how I hope I will be all to build trust and they will judge me

0:58:09 > 0:58:14on my record.Do you think we should lower the voting age?I don't think

0:58:14 > 0:58:19we should. Not because I don't think 16-year-olds should vote, but

0:58:19 > 0:58:22because I think our legal system around when we become an adult is

0:58:22 > 0:58:26very confused, you can do a lot of things at 16 or 18 and different

0:58:26 > 0:58:30ages. We need to decide what age are you adult and move everything to

0:58:30 > 0:58:36that age.You favour bringing down the age.We know why the government

0:58:36 > 0:58:40don't want to change the voting age, because the majority of those people

0:58:40 > 0:58:45vote Labour. When those people are given a vote like in the Scottish

0:58:45 > 0:58:48referendum, research and that has been overwhelmingly positive. It is

0:58:48 > 0:58:51a good thing to start at 16 because they are still in sunken of

0:58:51 > 0:58:56education, climate or training, so it means you can make those people

0:58:56 > 0:59:02understand the significance of that thought.It is a much broader of

0:59:02 > 0:59:06eight Ashley broader debate. How does make sense to see you can vote

0:59:06 > 0:59:10at 16 but not drive by alcohol?But isn't this about getting them

0:59:10 > 0:59:18against?F-16 is the right age to be an adult, then everything should be

0:59:18 > 0:59:2418.To get hold of young people while they are still in schools, to

0:59:24 > 0:59:33give them that grounding.Alex, why should young people get involved?

0:59:33 > 0:59:36Because it is going to happen to them either way. Politics is

0:59:36 > 0:59:42important, bodily value not. The reason Ollett is get stuff by the

0:59:42 > 0:59:46government is because they think will not get involved.It's

0:59:46 > 0:59:49important people engage and voices more likely to be heard if they are

0:59:49 > 0:59:52making their voices heard. Politicians have to listen and get

0:59:52 > 0:59:56out there, I'm sure we're trying to do that and go into schools and

0:59:56 > 1:00:02colleges and engage with those younger people. The more they are

1:00:02 > 1:00:16willing, the more they will be heard.Time for a round-up.

1:00:17 > 1:00:216000 police jobs could go across the country in the next two years says

1:00:21 > 1:00:24the Nottingham Police and Crime Commissioner. He said police numbers

1:00:24 > 1:00:29are at their lowest in 20 years and crime is on the up. He wants more

1:00:29 > 1:00:33than £1 billion for forces across the UK. Three councils have been put

1:00:33 > 1:00:37on notice by the government to comply with demands that they

1:00:37 > 1:00:41produce housing plan for their areas. They have been given until

1:00:41 > 1:00:46the end of January and will face government intervention in the

1:00:46 > 1:00:51planning processes. I wrote over the idea to create Nottingham and Derby

1:00:51 > 1:00:56Metro area to dig advantage of the benefits from HS2. A report talks of

1:00:56 > 1:01:00a spirit of collaboration between local authorities. But county

1:01:00 > 1:01:03council leaders say they were not consulted, and lead the report ahead

1:01:03 > 1:01:07of its launch tomorrow. Forget Hollywood Boulevard, Derby is

1:01:07 > 1:01:12getting its own walk of Fame. A £70,000 project will see plaques for

1:01:12 > 1:01:21famous and inspiring people from the city lead in the Saint Peters area.

1:01:21 > 1:01:27That is all from us, thanks to Alex Norris and Ben Bradley for being our

1:01:27 > 1:01:29guests. Time to hand you back to

1:01:37 > 1:01:40Philip Hammond will deliver his Budget on Wednesday -

1:01:40 > 1:01:43he's moved it to the Autumn if you remember - and he'll be

1:01:43 > 1:01:46hoping it can help re-define the Government in the eyes

1:01:46 > 1:01:47of the public.

1:01:47 > 1:01:50But when it comes to the economy, do people trust

1:01:50 > 1:01:52the Conservatives, or Labour?

1:01:52 > 1:01:56Here's Ellie Price with the moodbox.

1:01:56 > 1:02:04MUSIC: The Road to Nowhere by Talking Heads.

1:02:04 > 1:02:07All eyes will be on the Chancellor this week as we find out

1:02:07 > 1:02:10what he has been cooking up in his Budget.

1:02:10 > 1:02:13So we have pulled off the A1 near Peterborough to ask people here

1:02:13 > 1:02:15who they trust with the economy - is it the Chancellor,

1:02:15 > 1:02:22Philip Hammond, or is it Labour's John McDonnell?

1:02:22 > 1:02:25No 7.

1:02:25 > 1:02:31Which one's Tory?

1:02:37 > 1:02:39I voted Conservative for the last two

1:02:39 > 1:02:43elections, don't feel very confident now, so I'm going to swap.

1:02:43 > 1:02:46If I said to you which of these characters

1:02:46 > 1:02:48would you trust with the economy, what would you say?

1:02:48 > 1:02:50The one who's currently running it, because they

1:02:50 > 1:02:51seem to be bringing the deficit down.

1:02:51 > 1:02:52Labour.

1:02:52 > 1:02:53Why?

1:02:53 > 1:02:56Because I'm an NHS worker.

1:02:56 > 1:02:59For me, it's just about spending, public spending.

1:02:59 > 1:03:04Labour always overspend.

1:03:04 > 1:03:10John McDonnell, I think capitalism as we know it is tanked

1:03:10 > 1:03:15and I think we need a radical re-think.

1:03:15 > 1:03:18Broken his egg, who do you trust more on the economy?

1:03:18 > 1:03:19No one.

1:03:19 > 1:03:21Why?

1:03:21 > 1:03:27Because they never come up trumps with anything that they

1:03:27 > 1:03:28reckon they're going to do.

1:03:28 > 1:03:30If I had to make you choose one of them?

1:03:30 > 1:03:32The man that's there, Hammond.

1:03:32 > 1:03:34I wouldn't trust Philip Hammond with a

1:03:34 > 1:03:40bag of marbles or a plastic ball!

1:03:40 > 1:03:40Hello, Bob.

1:03:40 > 1:03:42Oh, hello.

1:03:42 > 1:03:43Who do you trust more on the economy?

1:03:43 > 1:03:45Oh, the Conservatives.

1:03:45 > 1:03:46Do you? Why's that?

1:03:46 > 1:03:49I just think they're better for the small businessman.

1:03:49 > 1:03:51We need a Maggie or a Winston Churchill,

1:03:51 > 1:03:54somebody in there with balls to say, right,

1:03:54 > 1:03:55that's the direction we are

1:03:55 > 1:03:57going in, that's what we are going to do.

1:03:57 > 1:03:59I've got balls!

1:03:59 > 1:04:01What are you doing?

1:04:01 > 1:04:08Putting balls in holes by the look of it!

1:04:08 > 1:04:11I suppose the lesser of the two evils is anything but Tory,

1:04:11 > 1:04:13but I say that without a great deal of conviction.

1:04:13 > 1:04:16Having grown up in the '70s with all the rubbish on the

1:04:16 > 1:04:18streets, the strikes, the unions.

1:04:18 > 1:04:21Re-nationalisation and they're going to spend a lot of money

1:04:21 > 1:04:27and increase taxes and it will pull the country down.

1:04:27 > 1:04:30I've seen an awful loft of all-day breakfasts today, but it

1:04:30 > 1:04:34is clearing up time here at the diner and time

1:04:34 > 1:04:36to reveal the Moodbox.

1:04:36 > 1:04:38Take it away, Tim.

1:04:38 > 1:04:40As you can say it was a close-run thing, but

1:04:40 > 1:04:43like any fiscally responsible Chancellor, I've done my maths and

1:04:43 > 1:04:50counted and Philip Hammond got six more votes than John McDonnell.

1:04:50 > 1:04:53Oh, chip, thank you very much!

1:04:53 > 1:04:55That was Ellie and the entirely unscientific Moodbox,

1:04:55 > 1:04:58at the Stibbington diner near Peterborough.

1:04:58 > 1:05:01But for a slightly more scientific understanding of how the public view

1:05:01 > 1:05:03the parties on this and other issues, let's have a look

1:05:03 > 1:05:05at some recent polling.

1:05:05 > 1:05:08Here's where the Conservatives and Labour stood on the economy back

1:05:08 > 1:05:11when the Prime Minister called the snap election in April,

1:05:11 > 1:05:14when the Conservatives had a big lead, as they did in many

1:05:14 > 1:05:15other areas.

1:05:15 > 1:05:19The most recent poll by the same company reckoned Labour had narrowed

1:05:19 > 1:05:21the gap significantly, as they have in other areas,

1:05:21 > 1:05:26although they're still 10 points behind the Tories on this issue.

1:05:26 > 1:05:30And there was another survey much discussed at Westminster this week,

1:05:30 > 1:05:35showing that while the gap between Theresa May

1:05:35 > 1:05:37and Jeremy Corbyn has narrowed drastically since that pre-election

1:05:37 > 1:05:39period, Mrs May is, despite her many problems,

1:05:39 > 1:05:41still pretty much level-pegging in polling terms or

1:05:41 > 1:05:42even slightly ahead.

1:05:42 > 1:05:45And when it comes to how people intend to vote

1:05:45 > 1:05:47while the Tories are behind, there's no sign of a

1:05:47 > 1:05:49big Labour lead yet.

1:05:49 > 1:05:51Tony Blair thinks that, given the current "mess"

1:05:51 > 1:05:55inside the Government, Jeremy Corbyn's party should be

1:05:55 > 1:05:5810 or 15 points ahead.

1:05:58 > 1:06:01Well, many in Labour will find it easy to dismiss both Tony Blair

1:06:01 > 1:06:04and the opinion polls, as they both called the last election entirely

1:06:04 > 1:06:11wrong, so what if anything do these polls tell us?

1:06:11 > 1:06:19Let's turn to our expert panel. Labour are now eight points on the

1:06:19 > 1:06:24economy, according to a poll. Why is there a gap between Labour and the

1:06:24 > 1:06:30Tories?There seems to be a deep-seated reservation in the minds

1:06:30 > 1:06:33of many voters. They look at Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell and

1:06:33 > 1:06:39imagine them in charge of the country, the finances, national

1:06:39 > 1:06:42security, and think... It is unfashionable to point out in many

1:06:42 > 1:06:47circles that Labour did not win the last election, and it didn't win it

1:06:47 > 1:06:53for that kind of reason. Jeremy Corbyn is very good at attracting

1:06:53 > 1:06:58and inspiring young people and people who had not voted before. We

1:06:58 > 1:07:05underestimated his capacity to do that. But he wasn't great at turning

1:07:05 > 1:07:10Tories to Labour, or sealing off those final reservations. The

1:07:10 > 1:07:14government have had a shambolic few weeks. We are tripping over

1:07:14 > 1:07:18resigning a cabinet ministers. They are fighting like ferrets. A lot of

1:07:18 > 1:07:21people are having a really tough time and looking at the government

1:07:21 > 1:07:26to help them, and are unimpressed with what they see. But there seems

1:07:26 > 1:07:33to be a final fence that Corbyn does not seem to be able to get over.

1:07:33 > 1:07:38Isn't Tony Blair right, that Labour should be 15 or 20 points ahead?I

1:07:38 > 1:07:43think he's completely wrong, and is revealing he is out of date. I think

1:07:43 > 1:07:46Labour are in a really good position. If you look at what they

1:07:46 > 1:07:52have achieved in the last year, going into Christmas 2016, Corbyn

1:07:52 > 1:07:58had just managed to avoid, had to re-fight Labour leadership contest.

1:07:58 > 1:08:05They were 20 points behind. Theresa May was at the top of her game.

1:08:05 > 1:08:09Through the general election and beyond it, they have continued to

1:08:09 > 1:08:14build their movement. They are very effective on social media. I think

1:08:14 > 1:08:19they are in a strong position, and they need about 60 seats to win the

1:08:19 > 1:08:25next general election. They will probably start with 25 of those. The

1:08:25 > 1:08:29fact that they are closing the gap on the economy suggests that a lot

1:08:29 > 1:08:33of voters are now giving them a chance or a hearing, which they

1:08:33 > 1:08:37certainly were not getting a year ago. I think they have done very

1:08:37 > 1:08:43well.Can they be confident with a slim lead against the government?I

1:08:43 > 1:08:48am slightly more with Tony Blair than with Iain. This goes back to

1:08:48 > 1:08:55that very general election result. A huge turnout for Labour for Jeremy

1:08:55 > 1:09:03Corbyn. If you asked that same 40% of people today, do you want Jeremy

1:09:03 > 1:09:06Corbyn to be Prime Minister? Where you really voting for Jeremy Corbyn

1:09:06 > 1:09:12to lead the British governmentanswer is no, because Theresa May still,

1:09:12 > 1:09:16despite the fact she is presiding over a shambolic cabinet, she has

1:09:16 > 1:09:23the most support for Prime Minister. The last general election may have

1:09:23 > 1:09:29just been a giant by-election, because everyone was so short that

1:09:29 > 1:09:33Theresa May would get in.The Chancellor Philip Hammond gave

1:09:33 > 1:09:40Labour a bit of a gift, when he said, there were not any unemployed

1:09:40 > 1:09:46people in Britain. A slip of the tongue. Was that damaging?You have

1:09:46 > 1:09:50to look at the context he was saying it in, which will not be the context

1:09:50 > 1:09:58of the Facebook meme you will get shortly. He was asked about future

1:09:58 > 1:10:09unemployment, and he was saying that when technological advances came,

1:10:09 > 1:10:14unemployment didn't materialise. They would not be able to use that

1:10:14 > 1:10:19against him so easily if it didn't have something that people think

1:10:19 > 1:10:22about the Conservative government, which is that they are out of touch,

1:10:22 > 1:10:26they have no idea about some people, that they refuse to see what they

1:10:26 > 1:10:31have done. People have that idea about the Conservatives, so to drop

1:10:31 > 1:10:38a bit of a clanger in that regard... The budget is on Wednesday, and also

1:10:38 > 1:10:42this week, the Brexit committee will be meeting. What will they be

1:10:42 > 1:10:47talking about and why does it matter?What Stephen Hammond said to

1:10:47 > 1:10:50you a few moments ago was fascinating. Tomorrow is going to be

1:10:50 > 1:10:56the big meeting. It is the negotiations committee. Nine or so

1:10:56 > 1:11:00ministers have recently been included in that, like Michael Gove.

1:11:00 > 1:11:04They are going to be talking about the money, precisely how much they

1:11:04 > 1:11:09offer in two weeks' time to meet this deadline in the December

1:11:09 > 1:11:13council for phase two. Michael Gove and Boris Johnson want to add in

1:11:13 > 1:11:18conditions. They want to say, we will give you this as long as we get

1:11:18 > 1:11:23that. What was fascinating with Stephen Hammond just now was that he

1:11:23 > 1:11:26revealed that it wasn't just the Brexiteers in Cabinet who want a

1:11:26 > 1:11:36more precise definition of what we are going for, it is the remainers

1:11:36 > 1:11:41as well.In the heart of the government, David Davis is trying to

1:11:41 > 1:11:49keep the bill as low as possible, possibly around 30%. The divorce

1:11:49 > 1:11:55Bill and future liabilities. Some in the civil service have suggested

1:11:55 > 1:12:02that it has to be 40 or above. What it reveals to me is really, it's

1:12:02 > 1:12:06another function of Britain not really having a proper Prime

1:12:06 > 1:12:11Minister. In normal circumstances, of course the Cabinet is divided. A

1:12:11 > 1:12:15strong leader would say, right, this is what is happening. This is where

1:12:15 > 1:12:21we are going. We will call it 35 or 40 billion. We will save to the

1:12:21 > 1:12:25European Union, there is the check, but it will not have a signature on

1:12:25 > 1:12:38it until we are satisfied with the next

1:12:44 > 1:12:47stage. The government is hampered by the lack of a strong personality who

1:12:47 > 1:12:49could do that, make a political play with other European leaders that

1:12:49 > 1:12:52might break the deadlock.Presumably that is why the full Cabinet have

1:12:52 > 1:12:54not discussed what the future Brexit deal will be.That is the

1:12:54 > 1:12:57astonishing thing. There has been no sort of vision of what Britain is

1:12:57 > 1:13:01going to look like after Brexit. We have got down in what the

1:13:01 > 1:13:05negotiation position for tomorrow will be. What does it look like in

1:13:05 > 1:13:08terms of immigration, trade with the rest of the world, what life will

1:13:08 > 1:13:14look like for ordinarily... Ordinary people?There are visions for this,

1:13:14 > 1:13:19but they will not agree on one. Is there such a thing as a Tory Cabinet

1:13:19 > 1:13:23Minister who could have one single vision without them all ripping each

1:13:23 > 1:13:28other's heads off? Probably not. Thank you.

1:13:28 > 1:13:29That's all for today.

1:13:29 > 1:13:32Join me again next Sunday at 11.00 here on BBC One.

1:13:32 > 1:13:35Until then, bye bye.