:00:38. > :00:44.Good morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. It would be
:00:45. > :00:47.extremely difficult, if not impossible, for an independent
:00:48. > :00:51.Scotland to join the European Union, so says the President of the
:00:52. > :00:56.European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, in a significant
:00:57. > :01:00.development in the independence debate. It's our top story. He has
:01:01. > :01:09.the power to bring travel chaos to the nation's capital. Bob Crow
:01:10. > :01:11.joined us for the Sunday interview. Another by-election and another
:01:12. > :01:16.find out the latest on the weather on the radio.
:01:17. > :01:43.With me, the best and brightest political panel in the business The
:01:44. > :01:44.twits will be as incessant and probably as welcome as the recent
:01:45. > :01:47.rain. A significant new probably as welcome as the recent
:01:48. > :01:50.in the debate over Scottish independence this morning, the
:01:51. > :01:56.President of the European Commission, President Jose Manuel
:01:57. > :01:59.Barroso, has confirmed what the Nationalists have long denied, that
:02:00. > :02:02.an independent Scotland would have to reply to join the European Union
:02:03. > :02:07.as a new member, that it would require the agreement of all 28
:02:08. > :02:10.member states and that would be in his words, extremely difficult, if
:02:11. > :02:15.not impossible. In case there is a new country, a new state coming out
:02:16. > :02:21.of a current member state, it will have to apply and, this is very
:02:22. > :02:25.important, the application to the union would have to be approved by
:02:26. > :02:32.all of the other member states. Countries like Spain, with the
:02:33. > :02:37.secessionist issues they have? I don't want to interfere in your
:02:38. > :02:40.democratic discussion here, but of course, it will be extremely
:02:41. > :02:45.difficult to get the approval of all of the other member states, to have
:02:46. > :02:53.a new member coming in from one member state. We have seen that that
:02:54. > :02:58.Spain has been opposing even the recognition, for instance, so it is
:02:59. > :03:00.a similar state. It is a new country. I believe it is great to be
:03:01. > :03:07.externally difficult, if not impossible. Well, he says he doesn't
:03:08. > :03:10.want to interfere, but he has just dropped a medium-sized explosive
:03:11. > :03:14.into the debate on Scottish independence? A huge story. Alex
:03:15. > :03:19.Salmond must be wondering what is going to go wrong next. His pitch to
:03:20. > :03:22.the Scottish people is based on two things, the currency union with
:03:23. > :03:29.England and the rest of the United Kingdom, which was blown apart last
:03:30. > :03:41.week, and this morning, his claims that Scotland would automatically
:03:42. > :03:47.get into the European Union has been dynamited. He's not only saying that
:03:48. > :03:54.they would have to apply, it is also saying it might be impossible to get
:03:55. > :03:58.the agreement of all 28 members to allow Scotland in. That's even more
:03:59. > :04:02.significant than the application? The reference to Spain is
:04:03. > :04:07.interesting, we talk about Catalan independence, an economic and active
:04:08. > :04:11.area that Spain does not want to be independent. About five other
:04:12. > :04:15.countries are blocking Kosovo's accession to the EU. There is no
:04:16. > :04:20.reason they would want to encourage the secessionist in their country by
:04:21. > :04:22.letting Scotland do the same. If Scotland does have to apply, and it
:04:23. > :04:26.does get in, Scotland does have to apply, and it
:04:27. > :04:32.problem because all new members have to accept the Euro? At the moment,
:04:33. > :04:36.the SNP are rejecting that quite strongly. What an interesting
:04:37. > :04:43.intervention today. However, I know that those arguing that Scotland
:04:44. > :04:49.should stay in the union are worried that the polls are tightening. A lot
:04:50. > :04:55.of these interventions, parents care arguments, they don't look like they
:04:56. > :04:59.are convincing the Scottish people. We haven't had any polls yet? We
:05:00. > :05:02.haven't, but we have since the currency debate was reignited in the
:05:03. > :05:07.last few weeks and it shows the polls tightening slightly. I think
:05:08. > :05:10.Alistair Darling's campaign would prefer to be much further ahead at
:05:11. > :05:15.the stage. They are worried that these technical commandments are not
:05:16. > :05:16.having much sway. Are the polls tightening slightly? They
:05:17. > :05:23.having much sway. Are the polls within the statistical margin for
:05:24. > :05:27.error. They are, but not much. Alex Salmond's main page is one of
:05:28. > :05:30.reassurance. He wants to say you can vote for independence, a pound in
:05:31. > :05:34.the pocket will be the same as before and you will still be a
:05:35. > :05:39.member of the European Union. In the last three or four matter days, both
:05:40. > :05:46.of those claims have been blown apart. Angus MacNeil has already
:05:47. > :05:49.told BBC Radio 5 Live that the remarks are nonsense and he is
:05:50. > :05:54.playing more politics. We hope to speak to the SNP's finance minister,
:05:55. > :05:58.John Swinney, a little bit later in the programme. It is not just the
:05:59. > :06:01.constant rain that London commuters have had to deal with. There was
:06:02. > :06:06.also a strike on the tube that disrupted the travel of millions. A
:06:07. > :06:09.second stoppage was on the cards, but it was called off at the last
:06:10. > :06:13.minute. The leader of the biggest
:06:14. > :06:19.underground workers union, the RMT, is Bob Crow, who has led his members
:06:20. > :06:23.into 24 strikes on the tube since 2005, as well as disputes on the
:06:24. > :06:27.national rail network. Under his leadership, the union's membership
:06:28. > :06:31.has grown from 57,000 in 2002 to more than 80,000, at a time when
:06:32. > :06:36.union membership overall has been shrinking. The current dispute has
:06:37. > :06:40.seen Bob Crow squaring up to Boris Johnson over the mayor's plans to
:06:41. > :06:43.close tube station ticket offices. The 48-hour stoppage at the
:06:44. > :06:48.beginning of this month is estimated to have cost the London economy ?100
:06:49. > :06:52.million. The two sides have agreed a truce, for now, but Mr Crow has
:06:53. > :06:57.threatened further action if the mayor imposes his changes.
:06:58. > :07:06.Bob Crow joins me now for the Sunday interview.
:07:07. > :07:13.Welcome to the Sunday Politics. You have suspended the strike for the
:07:14. > :07:18.moment. What will it take to call it off entirely? Want to know first of
:07:19. > :07:21.all wider booking office has to close. The Mayor of London made it
:07:22. > :07:24.quite clear in his election programme that the booking offices
:07:25. > :07:28.would remain open. It was strange, really, because Ken Livingstone
:07:29. > :07:31.wanted to close them down and the mayor thought it was popular to keep
:07:32. > :07:37.them open and put in his campaign to keep them open. However, we have not
:07:38. > :07:40.the news figures. We are being told only 3% of people use the booking
:07:41. > :07:44.offices. That's not true. In research done, if somebody does to a
:07:45. > :07:47.booking office with somebody sitting there and asks for a ticket of less
:07:48. > :07:54.than ?5, they are not allowed to sell them a ticket, it is madness.
:07:55. > :07:59.Do you use the ticket office? When it is open, yes. You said to ITV
:08:00. > :08:04.that he didn't. I don't know what I said to ITV, I don't know what time
:08:05. > :08:07.people use them, sometimes they are open and sometimes they are closed.
:08:08. > :08:11.People make out that these ticket office staff are people that sit
:08:12. > :08:15.behind barriers like a newsagent. I'm not knocking a newsagent,
:08:16. > :08:21.however, these people were the same people treated like Lions when they
:08:22. > :08:26.were helping people named in the terrorist incidents, taking them out
:08:27. > :08:30.of the panels. Suddenly they are lazy people that sit in ticket
:08:31. > :08:34.offices. My understanding is that the people would come from behind
:08:35. > :08:38.and be out and about now. It is the management wants to run the
:08:39. > :08:43.underground without ticket offices, isn't that their prerogative? They
:08:44. > :08:49.are paid to manage, not you, not your members, they are the managers?
:08:50. > :08:52.Managers are there to manage, and we want good managers. But we've got
:08:53. > :08:55.some really bad managers that are not looking at the railway as a
:08:56. > :08:58.whole. This is a successful industry, not an industry in
:08:59. > :09:02.decline, one of the most successful in Britain. It is moving 3.4 million
:09:03. > :09:07.people a day. All of the forecast is or it will move to 3.6 million per
:09:08. > :09:11.day. The mayor wants to run services on a Friday and Saturday night. We
:09:12. > :09:14.are not opposed to that. However, it does not make sense that if more
:09:15. > :09:19.people are going to be using the tube on Friday and Saturday, coming
:09:20. > :09:22.home at two o'clock three o'clock in the morning, a lot of people
:09:23. > :09:29.drinking, a lot of people not dragging, why take 1000 people of
:09:30. > :09:33.the network that come to the aid of people that are looking to people? I
:09:34. > :09:40.want to show you this picture. This is you. Taking a break in Brazil, I
:09:41. > :09:45.think it is. I was trying to copy you. You deserve this break because
:09:46. > :09:50.you have done a fantastic job for your members. Yes, I don't see what
:09:51. > :09:53.that has got to do with it. Let s get every editor of the daily
:09:54. > :09:57.newspapers and see where they go on their holidays, I would like to
:09:58. > :10:02.know. What I choose to do... I'm not attacking you for doing that...
:10:03. > :10:05.You've got a picture up there, I've got to say, why don't they go and
:10:06. > :10:10.follow Boris Johnson when he was away on holiday, when the riots were
:10:11. > :10:13.taking place in London, and he refused to come back? Why don't they
:10:14. > :10:16.go and view the editors of newspapers, where they go on
:10:17. > :10:20.holiday? Why do they look at you when you go on holiday? They
:10:21. > :10:27.sometimes do, actually. The basic pay of a tube driver will soon be
:10:28. > :10:32.?52,000. Ticket office workers are already earning over ?35,000. Never
:10:33. > :10:35.mind a holiday on Copacabana beach, or membership by your house for what
:10:36. > :10:39.you have done for them? When you look at the papers this morning I
:10:40. > :10:43.see that Wayne Rooney is going to get a ?70 million deal over the next
:10:44. > :10:51.four deals. I see NHS doctors are getting ?3000 a shift. I see a lot
:10:52. > :10:55.of people that do a lot of people that, in my opinion, don't do
:10:56. > :10:58.anything for society. The top paid people in this country should be
:10:59. > :11:02.doctors and nurses. Unfortunately, we live in a jungle. If you are not
:11:03. > :11:06.strong, the bosses will walk all over you. The reason why we got good
:11:07. > :11:11.terms and conditions is because we fought for them. The reality is all
:11:12. > :11:15.of these three political parties, liberals, Tories and Labour, they
:11:16. > :11:19.have all put no programme that to defend working people. So we have to
:11:20. > :11:22.do it on our own. And that is why you have done such a great job for
:11:23. > :11:25.your members and why union membership has been rising, people
:11:26. > :11:30.want to be part of a successful operation. But it has come at a cost
:11:31. > :11:36.for less well-paid workers, who travel on the cheap? If everyone
:11:37. > :11:39.believes if London Underground tube workers take a pay freeze they are
:11:40. > :11:42.going to redistribute the money to the rest of the workers that work on
:11:43. > :11:47.the cheap... But the people that travel on the tube, let's look at
:11:48. > :11:52.some of them, they are the ones that suffer from your strike action. The
:11:53. > :11:57.starting salary of a cheap driver now, ?48,000. The starting salary
:11:58. > :12:03.for a nurses only ?26,000, ?22, 00 for a young policeman, ?27,000 for a
:12:04. > :12:10.teacher starting out. As your members have spread, they have had
:12:11. > :12:17.to live through 24 strikes in 1 years to push up your members
:12:18. > :12:23.wages. It's I'm all right Jack? The have put a pay freeze on by
:12:24. > :12:26.conservatives and liberals. The police constables, so have the
:12:27. > :12:31.teachers. We have had the ability to go and fight. The reality is, at the
:12:32. > :12:36.end of the day, as I have said before, no one is going to put up
:12:37. > :12:40.the cause for workers. Not one single party in parliament are
:12:41. > :12:43.fighting the cause for workers. They all support privatisation, they all
:12:44. > :12:47.support keeping the anti-trade union laws, they all support illegal wars
:12:48. > :12:52.around the world. Unless they have a fighting trade union, our members
:12:53. > :12:56.pay would be as low as some others. You said we could not care less if
:12:57. > :13:00.we have 1 million strikes. But these people, the lower paid people who
:13:01. > :13:06.travel on the tube, who need it as an essential service, they care Of
:13:07. > :13:09.course they care, I've said before that I apologise to
:13:10. > :13:14.course they care, I've said before public for the dispute that took
:13:15. > :13:20.place. 24 strikes in 13 years? It two to tango. If the boy never
:13:21. > :13:24.imposed terms and conditions on us against our will... But you've got
:13:25. > :13:30.great terms and conditions! But it's a constant battle, they are trying
:13:31. > :13:35.to change them. Drivers are having their pay going up to ?50,000. You
:13:36. > :13:38.said they are making it worse, it is going up. They are trying to make
:13:39. > :13:43.things worse for workers. You said at the start of the interview that
:13:44. > :13:48.the tube strike cost ?100 million in two days. It means that when members
:13:49. > :13:50.go to work for two days it is worth ?100 million. That demonstrates what
:13:51. > :13:56.they are worth. Only a fighting trade union can defend workers out
:13:57. > :13:58.there. Your members should enjoy what you have got for them, because
:13:59. > :14:03.it's not going to last, is what you have got for them, because
:14:04. > :14:08.Technology will change the whole way your business operates. As Karl Marx
:14:09. > :14:12.says, you said I was a mixture of Karl Marx, Only Fools And Horses and
:14:13. > :14:16.the Sopranos. I thought that was quite funny... The Karl Marx part of
:14:17. > :14:24.it, the only thing that is constant is change. We have been crying out
:14:25. > :14:29.for new technology. But for who To put people on the dole, so they
:14:30. > :14:32.can't do anything and do anything for society, or technology so
:14:33. > :14:37.everybody benefits, lower fares better service and better terms and
:14:38. > :14:39.conditions for the workers. But you have made Labour so expensive on the
:14:40. > :14:44.underground that management now has a huge incentive to substitute
:14:45. > :14:48.technology for Labour. And that s what it's going to do, it is closing
:14:49. > :14:54.the ticket offices and very soon, starting in 2016, the driverless
:14:55. > :15:02.trains coming. What I am saying is that your members should enjoy this
:15:03. > :15:13.because it's not going to last. Driverless trains are not coming
:15:14. > :15:18.in, it is not safe. We have them in Nuremberg, Shanghai, Sao Paulo, it
:15:19. > :15:24.is not safe? These are new lines that have been built so that when it
:15:25. > :15:28.breaks down, people can get out of the tunnel. Would you want to be
:15:29. > :15:35.stuck on a summers day on the Northern line? A pregnant woman who
:15:36. > :15:40.cannot get off the train? Absolute panic that takes place, the reality
:15:41. > :15:45.is simple, it is a nonsense. It s not going to happen because it is a
:15:46. > :15:54.Victorian network. On Docklands railway for example it is driverless
:15:55. > :16:00.but when the train breaks down, it is above ground on a very small
:16:01. > :16:06.section. All of these other cities managed to have it. You remind me
:16:07. > :16:21.about Henry Ford in the 1930s when he said, you see that robot over
:16:22. > :16:26.their, he cannot buy a car. All sorts of new jobs are being created
:16:27. > :16:32.all the time in other areas. Come back to the ticket offices, not many
:16:33. > :16:37.people use the ticket offices any more, what is wrong with getting the
:16:38. > :16:41.stuff out of the ticket office on to the concourses, meeting and
:16:42. > :16:46.greeting, helping disabled people and tourists and making it a better
:16:47. > :16:52.service? They can do more on the concourse than they can in the
:16:53. > :16:59.ticket office. Andrew, he took the decision to close down every single
:17:00. > :17:06.ticket office. You cannot compare for example Chesham with the likes
:17:07. > :17:12.of Heathrow. Are you telling me people are going to be on a long
:17:13. > :17:17.transatlantic flight, arrived at Heathrow and cannot get a ticket.
:17:18. > :17:23.The stuff will be redeployed on the concourse. The simple problem is
:17:24. > :17:30.that it is not just about the booking office, it is about people
:17:31. > :17:34.having a visual. If you are partially sighted, you cannot use
:17:35. > :17:42.the machines. If British is not your first language, you cannot use the
:17:43. > :17:51.offices. How many languages do your members speak? I don't know, I
:17:52. > :17:56.struggle with English. The machines can speak many different languages.
:17:57. > :18:04.They are dehumanising things. You phone the bank, all you hear is
:18:05. > :18:08.press one for this, two for that. People want to hear it human being
:18:09. > :18:15.and what makes the London Underground so precious is that
:18:16. > :18:20.people want to see people. Having well-dressed, motivated people out
:18:21. > :18:23.on the concourse, what part of that don't you like? They will be on the
:18:24. > :18:27.concourse and they don't you like? They will be on the
:18:28. > :18:30.machines. The fact is that London Underground did a risk assessment of
:18:31. > :18:35.closing down their booking offices and it is clear that if you are
:18:36. > :18:42.disabled, if you are partially sighted, London Underground becomes
:18:43. > :18:49.more dangerous. You are posing the closing of ticket offices, opposing
:18:50. > :19:01.driverless trains, when you opposed to the Oyster card when it came in?
:19:02. > :19:08.No, Oyster cards, it is how you deal with it. It is not the only way
:19:09. > :19:13.They should supplement the staff and the job. If more people used the
:19:14. > :19:19.London Underground system, you want more staff to deal with them. Let's
:19:20. > :19:31.look at your mandate to strike. Of your members who work on the Tube,
:19:32. > :19:37.only 40% bothered to vote. Only 30% voted for the strike, so 70%
:19:38. > :19:42.actually didn't vote to strike of your members, but the strike went
:19:43. > :19:48.ahead. Isn't it right to have a higher threshold before you can
:19:49. > :19:51.cause this disruption? It would be lovely if everyone voted but the
:19:52. > :19:58.Tories took that away. We used to have ballots at the workplace. What
:19:59. > :20:06.I'm trying to say to you is that we used to have a ballot box at the
:20:07. > :20:10.workplace and the turnouts were higher. The Tories believe that if
:20:11. > :20:16.they can have a secret ballot where ballot papers went to people's home
:20:17. > :20:21.addresses, where they could be persuaded by the bosses, votes would
:20:22. > :20:28.be different. Let's go back to the workplace ballot because you get a
:20:29. > :20:33.bigger turnout. Will the RMT re-affiliate to the Labour Party? I
:20:34. > :20:41.have no intention to. We got expelled from the Labour Party. But
:20:42. > :20:49.you will give some money to the Labour councils? Those that support
:20:50. > :20:56.our basic policies get money, we don't give money directly to MPs, we
:20:57. > :21:05.give it to constituencies. Are you going to stand for re-election in
:21:06. > :21:11.2016? I might do, I might not. You haven't decided yet? No, but more
:21:12. > :21:18.than likely I will do. And will you stand again as an anti-EU candidate?
:21:19. > :21:25.Yes, I am standing in London, and right across, completely different
:21:26. > :21:30.to UKIP's policies. They are anti-European, they believe all of
:21:31. > :21:36.the faults of Europe are down to the immigrants. We are anti-European
:21:37. > :21:42.Union. If London Underground is as badly run as you think, why don t
:21:43. > :21:48.you run for mayor? That is down the road, it has not come up yet. I m
:21:49. > :21:52.not ruling anything out. I'm not ruling out getting your job on the
:21:53. > :21:58.Sunday Politics. You have got ruling out getting your job on the
:21:59. > :22:04.retire as well, you have got to put your feet up. I will get you to
:22:05. > :22:10.renegotiate my package. Shall we go on strike first? If I could have
:22:11. > :22:21.your wages, I would have two trips to Rio every year. Good luck. And if
:22:22. > :22:28.you're in the London region they'll have more on the Tube strike later
:22:29. > :22:33.in the programme. Let's get back to those comments from Jose Manuel
:22:34. > :22:39.Barroso, and reaction to these comments from John Swinney. Scottish
:22:40. > :22:46.Nationalists denied all along you would have to reapply, we have now
:22:47. > :22:52.heard it without any caveats, you will and you might not get in. I
:22:53. > :23:00.think Jose Manuel Barroso's comments were preposterous this morning. He
:23:01. > :23:06.compared the situation to the one in Kosovo. Britain is the member,
:23:07. > :23:12.Scotland is not the member. If you go independent, you will have to
:23:13. > :23:16.reapply, he says. All of the arrangements we have in place are
:23:17. > :23:20.compatible with the workings of the European Union because we have been
:23:21. > :23:26.part of it for 40 years. The propositions we put forward work
:23:27. > :23:30.about essentially negotiating the continuity of Scotland's membership
:23:31. > :23:36.of the European Union and that position has now been explained and
:23:37. > :23:49.debated and discussed and reinforced by comments made by experts. We are
:23:50. > :23:52.talking about the president of the European commission and we have
:23:53. > :23:57.spoken to him since he gave that interview on the BBC this morning,
:23:58. > :24:06.it was an intervention that he made that he wanted to lay out that
:24:07. > :24:14.Scotland should be in no doubt that if they vote for independence they
:24:15. > :24:18.will have to apply for European membership and they may not get it
:24:19. > :24:23.if it is vetoed by other members. What he didn't say is that no state
:24:24. > :24:29.of the European Union have indicated they would veto Scottish
:24:30. > :24:34.membership. The Spanish foreign minister has. They have said that if
:24:35. > :24:38.there is an agreed process within the UK that Scotland becomes an
:24:39. > :24:43.independent country, then Spain has got nothing to say about the issue.
:24:44. > :24:48.That indicates to me clearly that the Spanish government will have no
:24:49. > :24:51.stance to take on the Scottish membership of the European Union
:24:52. > :24:56.because it is important that Scotland is already part of the
:24:57. > :25:01.European Union, our laws are compatible with the European Union
:25:02. > :25:06.and we play our part. The only threat to Scotland's participation
:25:07. > :25:16.in the European Union is the potential in/out referendum that
:25:17. > :25:22.David Cameron wants to have in 017. It has not been a great week for
:25:23. > :25:28.you, has it? Everything you seem to want, the monetary union, that has
:25:29. > :25:32.been blown out of the water by the Westminster parties, now Jose Manuel
:25:33. > :25:39.Barroso has said you will have to reapply to the European Union, it
:25:40. > :25:45.has not been a good week. You will follow the debate closely, and the
:25:46. > :25:49.Sunday newspapers are full about the backlash taking place within
:25:50. > :25:58.Scotland at the bullying remarks of the Chancellor and his cohorts. Is
:25:59. > :26:01.Jose Manuel Barroso a bully is well now? He is making an indirect
:26:02. > :26:08.comparison between Scotland and Kosovo. If you vote for independence
:26:09. > :26:15.and you do have two apply again to join, if you do get in it solves
:26:16. > :26:21.your currency problem because you will have to accept the euro. We
:26:22. > :26:29.have set out an option on the currency arrangements which would be
:26:30. > :26:36.to establish the currency union You would have to adopt the euro. That's
:26:37. > :26:40.not rate because you have to be part of the exchange-rate mechanism for
:26:41. > :26:43.two years before you can apply for membership and an independent
:26:44. > :26:48.Scotland has no intention of signing up to the exchange rate mechanism or
:26:49. > :26:52.the single currency. We are concentrating on setting out our
:26:53. > :26:59.arguments for maintaining the pound sterling, which is in the interests
:27:00. > :27:05.of Scotland and the UK. Thank you for joining us this morning.
:27:06. > :27:08.This week's least surprising news was that Labour won the safe seat of
:27:09. > :27:11.Wythenshawe and Sale East in a by-election, following the death of
:27:12. > :27:12.the MP Paul Goggins. With the result so predictable,
:27:13. > :27:16.the MP Paul Goggins. With the result whether this would be the sixth time
:27:17. > :27:19.this parliament that UKIP would come second. And whether they'd chip away
:27:20. > :27:23.at Labour's vote, not just the Tories and the Lib Dems. Adam stayed
:27:24. > :27:33.up all night to find out what it all meant. Forget the hype. Forget the
:27:34. > :27:45.theorising. And yes - everyone has a theory. UKIP are learning from us.
:27:46. > :27:50.What have they picked up from you? To be silly. Thanks to this week's
:27:51. > :27:53.by-election we've got some hard evidence in paper form that helps
:27:54. > :28:00.answer the question: How are UKIP doing? Turns out the answer is well,
:28:01. > :28:10.but not well enough to beat Labour. I'm therefore claim -- declare that
:28:11. > :28:12.Mike Cane is elected. So UKIP have come second and increased their
:28:13. > :28:15.share of the vote quite significantly. But their performance
:28:16. > :28:18.isn't as good as their performances in some of the other by-elections
:28:19. > :28:27.this parliament. Just don't suggest to them that their bandwagon has
:28:28. > :28:34.ground to a halt. A week ago you'd told me you were going to win, what
:28:35. > :28:42.happened? No, I didn't, I said I wanted to win. My mistake. How are
:28:43. > :28:47.you feeling? It is a Labour stronghold, we always knew it was
:28:48. > :28:53.going to be a fight. Labour were running scared of letting us present
:28:54. > :28:55.our arguments. UKIP's campaign in Wythenshawe didn't point to the
:28:56. > :28:59.right but to the left, with leaflets that branded Labour as a party of
:29:00. > :29:02.millionaires who didn't care about the working class. It wasn't a
:29:03. > :29:08.winning strategy but it did help them beat the Tories who focused on
:29:09. > :29:10.dog mess and potholes instead. Professional UKIP-watcher Rob Ford
:29:11. > :29:17.from Manchester Uni thinks they could be on the right track. He s
:29:18. > :29:19.analysed the views of 5,000 UKIP voters for a new book, which could
:29:20. > :29:31.confound the received wisdom about the party. The common media image of
:29:32. > :29:40.the typical UKIP voter is a ruddy faced golf club and -- member from
:29:41. > :29:44.the south-east of the UK and many UKIP activists do resemble that
:29:45. > :29:47.stereotype to some extent, they do pick up a lot of activists from the
:29:48. > :29:51.Conservative party, but pick up a lot of activists from the
:29:52. > :29:57.are older, more working class, more likely to live in Northern, urban
:29:58. > :30:01.areas, and they are much more anti-system than anti-EU. And
:30:02. > :30:04.they're precisely the voters that the Tory MP David Mowat needs if
:30:05. > :30:17.he's to hold on to his narrow majority in the constituency just
:30:18. > :30:20.down the road. Do you have a UKIP strategy in your seat? Our UKIP
:30:21. > :30:24.strategy is to point out that if they want a referendum on if they
:30:25. > :30:27.want to be in the EU or not, there is one way to get it, for the
:30:28. > :30:33.Conservatives to form their next government and for me to be their
:30:34. > :30:40.MP. UKIP could accidentally destroy what they want? I'm not sure it will
:30:41. > :30:41.be accidental. People need to realise that if Ed Miliband is
:30:42. > :30:46.be accidental. People need to Prime Minister, there will be no
:30:47. > :30:52.referendum on the EU and UKIP may have made their point but they would
:30:53. > :31:02.not have got their referendum. Over at UKIP local HQ, it is tidying up
:31:03. > :31:05.time. Not helping, Nigel? I had major surgery on the 19th of
:31:06. > :31:09.November and I am still weak as a kitten. I can barely lift a pint
:31:10. > :31:14.with my right hand, it is as serious as that. The answer is, Carreon
:31:15. > :31:18.chaps, you're all doing a very good job. There will be carrying on to
:31:19. > :31:22.the European elections in May, which will provide more evidence of if the
:31:23. > :31:28.UKIP and wagon is powering on or if it is just parked. -- bandwagon
:31:29. > :31:32.With me now is the Conservative MEP Vicky fraud and UKIP director of
:31:33. > :31:36.medication is Patrick O'Flynn. He will also be a candidate in the
:31:37. > :31:40.upcoming European elections. You came second in Manchester, but it
:31:41. > :31:47.was not a close second. -- Vicky Ford. There is nothing that is a
:31:48. > :31:53.game changer? I think it is very unusual for any insurgent party
:31:54. > :31:58.like the liberals used to be, to actually win a safe seat of the
:31:59. > :32:06.opposition. Those shocks, going back to Walkington etc, it tended to be
:32:07. > :32:11.winning seats against an unpopular government. We did extraordinarily
:32:12. > :32:14.well in Wythenshawe. Labour compressed the campaign down to the
:32:15. > :32:17.shortest possible time and maxed out the postal vote. Whatever we think
:32:18. > :32:22.about Labour, they do have an efficient machine, lots of union
:32:23. > :32:28.activists signed a lot of people with a lot of know-how. It pushed
:32:29. > :32:33.you into third place and showed the increasing irrelevance of the Tories
:32:34. > :32:38.in the North? Tory minded voters in the North Sea more inclined to vote
:32:39. > :32:42.for UKIP than you? I think by-elections are by-elections. The
:32:43. > :32:47.same day, we took a seat from Labour in Birmingham. Well, that was a
:32:48. > :32:51.by-election as well, so we should discount that as well. You should
:32:52. > :32:55.learn from them, and we need to look forward to the elections in 201 .
:32:56. > :33:02.That is in May this year, when we have a chance to really grab this
:33:03. > :33:07.change in Europe, grab this change that we were talking about just now.
:33:08. > :33:09.You don't worry, particularly in the north, if people want to vote
:33:10. > :33:15.against Labour your supporters are drifting to UKIP? I think people
:33:16. > :33:19.vote UKIP in a European election and they have done that for many years.
:33:20. > :33:23.They vote that because they want change. The problem is, Patrick s
:33:24. > :33:28.party have had MEPs since 1999 and they cannot deliver that change
:33:29. > :33:34.They can't because they don't have seats in Westminster. It was on that
:33:35. > :33:38.video, the only way we are going to get the change we want in Europe is
:33:39. > :33:45.to have that referendum and have the renegotiation, and that means vote
:33:46. > :33:50.Tory. What do you say to that? Let's get real, the Conservative Party has
:33:51. > :33:56.not won a Parliamentary majority in 22 years. But the only way you will
:33:57. > :34:00.get a referendum, if that is what motivates you, and with UKIP it is,
:34:01. > :34:03.the only way it will be a referendum on Europe in this country as if
:34:04. > :34:06.there is a majority Conservative government at the next election And
:34:07. > :34:12.you could well stop that from happening? I don't accept that. I
:34:13. > :34:15.believe, just as we forced David Cameron and into a referendum pledge
:34:16. > :34:19.he explicitly ruled out making before through our success, and I
:34:20. > :34:22.was there in PMQs, when his MPs asked him and he said it would not
:34:23. > :34:25.be in the national interest because he didn't want to leave, our
:34:26. > :34:30.electoral success forced that pledge. I believe by winning the
:34:31. > :34:34.European action this May we can force Ed Miliband, again, against
:34:35. > :34:37.his will, to match that pledge. Then, whatever formulation varies in
:34:38. > :34:44.the next Parliament, we will get a referendum. Labour MPs have just had
:34:45. > :34:49.the chance to say we want a referendum. They refused to do it.
:34:50. > :34:53.The only way you are going to get a renegotiation, a change in our
:34:54. > :34:56.relationship with Europe and an in or out referendum is to have a
:34:57. > :34:59.Conservative Government. Please UKIP, stop pretending that you can
:35:00. > :35:07.deliver, because you don't deliver and you don't... We have delivered,
:35:08. > :35:13.we forced David Cameron to give a pledge for a referendum he didn t
:35:14. > :35:16.want to make. We will know if you are right about Ed Miliband or not,
:35:17. > :35:21.you will have to tell us going into the campaign. If you are wrong, what
:35:22. > :35:25.do you do then? There are still loads of reasons for people to vote
:35:26. > :35:31.UKIP. A referendum is one thing David Cameron, and I asked him
:35:32. > :35:37.directly, thermally wants to stay in. He wants to be the Edward Heath
:35:38. > :35:40.of the 21st century. The Tories are going to say, vote UKIP, get Ed
:35:41. > :35:45.Miliband. What would you say to that? I would say we have probably
:35:46. > :35:49.maxed out the Tory vote we are going to get because David Cameron has
:35:50. > :35:53.been incredibly helpful in sending them in our direction. Our potential
:35:54. > :35:59.for growth now, would we are concentrating on, his those
:36:00. > :36:02.disenchanted former Labour voters and more and more of them are coming
:36:03. > :36:08.towards us on things like immigration and law and order. We
:36:09. > :36:12.want to renegotiate our relationship with Europe. We need to have people
:36:13. > :36:15.who are going to turn up to negotiate with people like Barroso.
:36:16. > :36:23.That meant a Prime Minister that is not Ed Miliband but David Cameron.
:36:24. > :36:31.UKIP MEPs do not turn up to defenders. If President Hollande is
:36:32. > :36:33.as good as his word and says there will be no substantial
:36:34. > :36:38.renegotiation, certainly no treaty change this side of 2017 when he is
:36:39. > :36:43.up for the election, what do you do then? He is a French Socialist Prime
:36:44. > :36:49.Minister, I don't expect him to agree. But you can't bring anything
:36:50. > :36:56.of substance back with these negotiations. Then people will vote
:36:57. > :37:03.to leave. The Prime Minister has been very clear that British public
:37:04. > :37:06.opinion is on a knife edge and unless we get what we want from a
:37:07. > :37:12.renegotiation, we will leave. You would vote to leave? Let's see what
:37:13. > :37:16.we get with the deal on the table in 2017. If the status quo was what we
:37:17. > :37:23.have today, I would vote to leave. But I want to renegotiate. We will
:37:24. > :37:27.have to move on. For those viewers lucky enough to live in the East of
:37:28. > :37:31.England, they will be seeing more of Patrick in a moment. You are
:37:32. > :37:35.watching Sunday Politics. Coming up in just over 20 minutes, I will be
:37:36. > :37:43.talking about, what else, the weather, with
:37:44. > :37:50.Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in the East. Later in the
:37:51. > :37:58.programme, the struggle to keep SureStart centres open.
:37:59. > :38:01.We always feel it. We are in small villages and I feel like we need it,
:38:02. > :38:09.really. And calls to reduce the cost of tax
:38:10. > :38:14.on bingo clubs. We are not asking for a hand`out or
:38:15. > :38:21.a subsidy. We are asking for a level tax.
:38:22. > :38:23.But first let's introduce our guests, Stewart Jackson, the
:38:24. > :38:26.Conservative MP for Peterborough, and Patrick O'Flynn, who is UKIP's
:38:27. > :38:29.lead candidate for the eastern region in the forthcoming European
:38:30. > :38:38.elections this May. And we will begin this week with some good news
:38:39. > :38:41.for flood victims. The government has announced that
:38:42. > :38:43.people who suffered flooding on the East Coast will be entitled to
:38:44. > :38:47.compensation because financial help will now be backdated to include the
:38:48. > :38:50.whole winter. That means that people who were flooded here during the
:38:51. > :38:55.tidal surge in December should qualify.
:38:56. > :39:01.There was a worry that with all the subsequent flooding elsewhere we
:39:02. > :39:08.might have missed out. Yes, I was in King's Lynn on the day
:39:09. > :39:14.of the first storm in December and doing a UKIP meeting in the area and
:39:15. > :39:19.I remember driving back in the evening and the wind whistling. I
:39:20. > :39:23.think it was the day that they announced that Nelson Mandela had
:39:24. > :39:30.died, said the media coverage for the storm was small. I am pleased
:39:31. > :39:34.that the East have been acknowledged, but people will feel
:39:35. > :39:39.that the flooding in the Thames Valley has elevated that.
:39:40. > :39:44.What about that? People are saying that it is the flooding in the south
:39:45. > :39:49.that has prompted the surgeon money?
:39:50. > :39:53.Clearly, we have had exceptional circumstances and appalling weather,
:39:54. > :40:01.unlike anything that we have seen since 2007. I think the government
:40:02. > :40:04.have acted as quickly as possible. The Prime Minister has taken direct
:40:05. > :40:09.action and seized the moment with chairing Cobra, looking at the
:40:10. > :40:13.scheme that gives the funding but the local government.
:40:14. > :40:20.So it has nothing to do with the marginals? No, it is not a party
:40:21. > :40:24.political issue. MPs from across the divide have been very good at
:40:25. > :40:27.representing the concerns of their constituents, not least in
:40:28. > :40:32.Somerset. I think the government has acted in terms of asking the
:40:33. > :40:36.Treasury to look again at funding and working with local authorities
:40:37. > :40:45.to review the scheme said that more money can go to them.
:40:46. > :40:51.To the money that we will all pay on our council tax. Budgets are being
:40:52. > :40:54.set all across the region at the moment, before bills go out in
:40:55. > :40:57.spring. This is the picture in our 51 district authorities. Next year,
:40:58. > :41:02.the number of council jobs expected to go across the region is at least
:41:03. > :41:05.786. There are 25 councils who are
:41:06. > :41:08.sticking with the government's advice and freezing council tax, but
:41:09. > :41:11.16 district authorities are going to increase theirs, three, all in
:41:12. > :41:15.Essex, are managing a cut and a handful have yet to make up their
:41:16. > :41:18.mind. Altogether the districts plan to make savings of ?439 million, put
:41:19. > :41:21.that together with the ?402 million spending reduction by our shire and
:41:22. > :41:28.unitary councils and the total save this year is ?841 million. That
:41:29. > :41:34.means a reduction in children's services. Started by Labour in 1998,
:41:35. > :41:37.SureStart centres were funded by the government and aimed to support
:41:38. > :41:40.families, as well as improve early education and childcare. Local
:41:41. > :41:43.authorities took them over in 2005 and now cuts to their funding mean
:41:44. > :41:46.the service is being targeted only at the most disadvantaged families.
:41:47. > :41:50.Tom Barton has this report from Essex.
:41:51. > :41:55.Hello, hello, it is good to see you.
:41:56. > :42:02.Every week, new mothers and fathers bring their babies to this parenting
:42:03. > :42:06.group in Braintree. It is one of the number of classes that the centre
:42:07. > :42:12.runs to help new parents, along with a drop`in service everyday.
:42:13. > :42:17.It is free and is open to everyone, so that is great. Everything else is
:42:18. > :42:22.quite expensive to do. This is my first child, so I did not have much
:42:23. > :42:27.experience. Coming here, it is good to know that you can ask people any
:42:28. > :42:33.questions that you have. It is brilliant, they do loads of
:42:34. > :42:37.groups. We come to two a week. We have found that it has helped with
:42:38. > :42:43.our little girl's developments. But across Essex, children's centres
:42:44. > :42:48.facing cuts. These mothers and fathers are the lucky ones. This
:42:49. > :42:52.centre is not being affected by the cuts. But, across Essex, of the 82
:42:53. > :42:56.centres that will be open after the cuts, more than half of them will
:42:57. > :43:01.face a reduction in their opening hours.
:43:02. > :43:04.These mothers are among those affected by the cuts. The
:43:05. > :43:09.children's centres that they attend having their hours slashed. One will
:43:10. > :43:15.go from being open eight hours a day Monday to Friday to being open for
:43:16. > :43:23.just five hours each week. We do a lot of courses, baby Matt
:43:24. > :43:30.Sarge. `` baby massaging. We would not have that opportunity if it was
:43:31. > :43:34.not that the children's centre. This group has been campaigning
:43:35. > :43:36.against the cuts, saying that their area has been disproportionately
:43:37. > :43:40.affected. Now that they have made the cuts, I
:43:41. > :43:47.see that it will only get worse. People that have had their centre
:43:48. > :43:52.cut from 40 hours to five hours. When they make the next cut, this is
:43:53. > :43:56.where the centre will shut. As always, we are the ones that feel
:43:57. > :44:02.it, because we are in small villages. I feel that we are the
:44:03. > :44:06.kind of people who need it, really. I think there is a long`term impact
:44:07. > :44:11.in terms of the effect that it has on families, but also the wider
:44:12. > :44:18.community. SureStart children's centres run out of community
:44:19. > :44:19.facilities. If you take the children's centre away, it
:44:20. > :44:24.undermines the viability of the centres.
:44:25. > :44:26.The education minister says that decisions about children's centres
:44:27. > :44:31.should be local. Ultimately, it is the responsibility
:44:32. > :44:35.of the local council to make sure that those children get a good start
:44:36. > :44:38.in life and stop we have been clear in our government guidance that
:44:39. > :44:47.there should be a strong network of SureStart centres.
:44:48. > :44:51.But, with councils facing the effects of cuts to central
:44:52. > :44:56.government grants, increasing demand and a limit on council tax rises,
:44:57. > :45:03.services that were once universal will inevitably end up serving only
:45:04. > :45:10.those in the greatest need. Hickory decree dock. That was
:45:11. > :45:15.beautiful. Joining me now, the leader of the
:45:16. > :45:20.County Council, David Finch. Why are you making these cuts?
:45:21. > :45:25.What we are doing is re`profiling the service so that we are placing
:45:26. > :45:28.where there is the greatest need the resources in the area and we have
:45:29. > :45:33.been very careful about the profiling of the centres so that we
:45:34. > :45:37.are actually reaching those people who have the greatest need. In fact,
:45:38. > :45:42.if you look at the cost reduction that we have achieved, it isn't
:45:43. > :45:46.around people, it is about building rates, electricity bills. It is all
:45:47. > :45:52.those fixed costs that are associated with the centres. We have
:45:53. > :45:55.been able to re`profile because we have adapted the workforce in those
:45:56. > :46:00.centres appropriately to the needs of the communities and re`profiled
:46:01. > :46:06.the cost as well. You heard the mothers in the films
:46:07. > :46:12.saying 40 hours down to five hours. Effectively, the places close down.
:46:13. > :46:18.No, I think it is reasonable. We would have profile Turbat about how
:46:19. > :46:25.long the centre was opened a week and how many hours it was used a
:46:26. > :46:28.week. We have been very careful about profiling all of these centres
:46:29. > :46:33.and outreach places so that we are maximising their use and maximising
:46:34. > :46:37.the opportunity. The mother in the film does not feel
:46:38. > :46:40.that she has been profiled. She fills that she is missing out on
:46:41. > :46:48.something that she and her child enjoy.
:46:49. > :46:53.Your pro `` programme has profiled this in terms of the outreach
:46:54. > :46:55.centres as cuts. If you give that message out, people pick that
:46:56. > :47:00.message up and think it will be worse in the future. What we have
:47:01. > :47:07.been doing as Essex County Council over the last four years is
:47:08. > :47:11.re`profiling our surfaces `` services, looking at how we can be
:47:12. > :47:14.adaptable and profiled the finances and give value to money for the
:47:15. > :47:22.taxpayer. You are going to raise tax, it at
:47:23. > :47:26.the 11th hour you decided not to. You could have saved these
:47:27. > :47:30.services, continue? I think that we have saved the
:47:31. > :47:34.services. The work that has been done has been appropriate. What we
:47:35. > :47:38.have done interims of accepting the grants is on the basis of what we
:47:39. > :47:42.have seen as an increase in the tax base from the collections at the
:47:43. > :47:50.District Council level. That has come through to us. We have acted
:47:51. > :47:52.sponsored Bailey and profiled `` we have acted responsibly and profiled
:47:53. > :48:00.the money. Stewart Jackson, Peter Brook is also
:48:01. > :48:06.facing these cuts. Mothers `` Peterborough are also facing cuts.
:48:07. > :48:11.Mothers in your areas will be missing out?
:48:12. > :48:16.Most of that is not my area of the place, but there will be some
:48:17. > :48:19.changes. The changes to try and focus the greatest number of
:48:20. > :48:22.resources on the greatest need and I think that is the most important
:48:23. > :48:31.thing to do. In the case Peter borough, we will have children's
:48:32. > :48:34.services hopes, areas, where you have things like postnatal
:48:35. > :48:39.depression, the most pressing issues will have a focus and stop it will
:48:40. > :48:41.not be focused just on the buildings.
:48:42. > :48:45.SureStart was supposed to be about support and guidance for parents.
:48:46. > :48:48.UKIP's idea of more 'Nursery Voucher' provision isn't the same at
:48:49. > :48:59.all ` don't you believe in supporting families? Is that not
:49:00. > :49:08.about time spent away from the home?
:49:09. > :49:13.I think David and Stewart are wrong to be addressing this up in jargon.
:49:14. > :49:17.We should be honest and say that the services are being cut, but they are
:49:18. > :49:24.being cut because the last Labour government is left this country in a
:49:25. > :49:28.huge... What would you do? I think the key question is, are the cuts
:49:29. > :49:33.being made in the right place? When you have the Foreign Office paying
:49:34. > :49:37.diplomats to send their children to private schools at ?25,000 a year
:49:38. > :49:46.and you have the Ministry of Defence with highly paid people staying at
:49:47. > :49:50.4`star hotels, you would expect that Whitehall has not tried very hard.
:49:51. > :49:57.You will see cuts at the front line for not very much money spent are
:49:58. > :50:04.affecting human it. I would leave the Labour Party. And it has left
:50:05. > :50:11.the country in a mess. But how will your nursery vouchers
:50:12. > :50:15.help people? I would say that SureStart is not the worst idea that
:50:16. > :50:24.the Labour Party has stopped I think it does need focusing on children
:50:25. > :50:29.from more deprived backgrounds. When they were throwing money at
:50:30. > :50:33.everything, it seemed that it was mainly affluent parents who were
:50:34. > :50:40.having the services. I would argue that we should do something more to
:50:41. > :50:47.help parents to do their best. David Finch? I wanted to say that
:50:48. > :50:52.the track record of Essex is very clear over the last four years up we
:50:53. > :50:58.have saved ?364 million, we have re`profiled our service. Sorry if we
:50:59. > :51:02.are using jargon, but we are delivering results in Essex because
:51:03. > :51:09.we are a Conservative administration who knows what they are doing.
:51:10. > :51:14.But to be honest about it. What about the council tax, why not
:51:15. > :51:18.have a referendum and ask the people of Essex what they want to do?
:51:19. > :51:24.When we had the returns from the councils on the 3rd of February, the
:51:25. > :51:28.amount that we thought we would get was ?4 million and that was based on
:51:29. > :51:33.the forecast from the districts. We ended up with ?10.8 million. I
:51:34. > :51:37.decided that we would take the freeze grants was because I could
:51:38. > :51:42.afford to do all of the things that we plan to do with the additional
:51:43. > :51:45.tax money and still do things like put money into flood relief, I could
:51:46. > :51:51.put more money into education, more money into highways, money into
:51:52. > :51:55.other services. Why would I not do that if I could keep council tax at
:51:56. > :52:06.the freeze level for the residents of Essex?
:52:07. > :52:09.Thank you. We're going to talk about bingo.
:52:10. > :52:11.It's a pastime that's brought communities together for
:52:12. > :52:14.generations. But in recent years, there's been a big drop in the
:52:15. > :52:18.numbers taking part. Is it simply going out of fashion? Or could it
:52:19. > :52:22.have something to do with the fact that while most gambling activities
:52:23. > :52:25.are taxed at 15%, bingo is taxed at 20%? The industry is now lobbying
:52:26. > :52:29.for a change in the law and it's campaign in Parliament is being led
:52:30. > :52:36.by one of our MPs. Eyes down for Andrew Sinclair.
:52:37. > :52:40.Six and five, 65. It is a wet Wednesday in Harlow, and
:52:41. > :52:51.80 people are spending the evening in the loco `` local bingo hall.
:52:52. > :52:58.For ?10, they can take play of 14 games, to potentially win ?50. On
:52:59. > :53:02.other nights, the prize could be ?500. But everyone here says it is
:53:03. > :53:06.not about the money. It is a night out not in front of
:53:07. > :53:12.the television and the chance to have a win if we are lucky. You talk
:53:13. > :53:18.to people, have a joke. The winning is not important. It is an evening
:53:19. > :53:27.out, a social evening. We can have a chat top we enjoy it.
:53:28. > :53:33.Is that two fat ladies? Even party leaders have had a go,
:53:34. > :53:39.but David Cameron struggled when he had to go in 2009. According to the
:53:40. > :53:48.industry, bingo is in crisis. In 2007, there were 542 clubs, now
:53:49. > :53:53.there are just 200. `` 400. Now just 41 million visits a year. The
:53:54. > :53:57.industry says that the smoking ban has played a part, also the high
:53:58. > :54:02.rate of tax. It makes bingo companies reluctant
:54:03. > :54:04.to invest. The bingo industry would like to build more modern
:54:05. > :54:11.state`of`the`art premises so that we can attract more numbers.
:54:12. > :54:14.Could a reason for this fall in numbers be because people do not
:54:15. > :54:20.want to play bingo anymore, there are other more attractive games?
:54:21. > :54:24.See, there is more competition in the leisure retail market and
:54:25. > :54:28.online, so we have to up our game as well. We're not asking for a
:54:29. > :54:36.hand`out or a subsidy, or we are asking for A`level tax.
:54:37. > :54:40.Bingo profits are taxed at 20%, compared to 15% for other forms of
:54:41. > :54:44.booking. Just 12% for lottery tickets will stop it all goes back
:54:45. > :54:51.to the budget of 2009 when Alistair Darling axed the 80 on bingo halls
:54:52. > :54:59.and increased gross office tax. He said that it would save the industry
:55:00. > :55:03.money, but it has not happened. The industry's tax has won the backing
:55:04. > :55:10.of MPs in Westminster. They say it would be fair and not expensive.
:55:11. > :55:13.Where would the people get the ?20 million? They are taxing online
:55:14. > :55:19.gaming which should raise ?300 million. They should use that to cut
:55:20. > :55:22.bingo tax. Thousands of people enjoy this past time and it is incredibly
:55:23. > :55:26.important. If they have the money and can invest in the clubs and can
:55:27. > :55:30.employ more people, there will be able to get even more people to come
:55:31. > :55:38.to the clubs, stop the closures and bingo will thrive and stop.
:55:39. > :55:43.The Treasury is making sympathetic noises. I understand that ministers
:55:44. > :55:48.believe that the Wingo industry has been unfairly treated. But in these
:55:49. > :55:58.times, can the Chancellor find money for a in go tax cut. `` bingo.
:55:59. > :56:01.They hope to get half a million signatures on a petition that will
:56:02. > :56:06.be handed into Downing Street later this month. It is hoped that the
:56:07. > :56:15.Chancellor will announce a change of heart.
:56:16. > :56:21.Do you care about bingo? Yes, I do. I think that the
:56:22. > :56:24.discrepancy in tax between bookmakers and bingo is untenable
:56:25. > :56:27.and we need to look again at making it fairer.
:56:28. > :56:35.Do you think it will make it to the budget? Yes, I do, because Robert
:56:36. > :56:40.Hoffman has a track record of pushing the issues forward to the
:56:41. > :56:46.Treasury, which is not always taken on`board straightaway, but he is one
:56:47. > :56:52.out in the end by people power and strong campaigning. I think he will
:56:53. > :56:58.win the day. Robert Halfon is good at tapping
:56:59. > :57:01.into issues important to everyday people and not going back to a
:57:02. > :57:08.bygone era, something that people accuse your party of?
:57:09. > :57:18.I don't know about a bygone era, but Robert Halfon does have a talent at
:57:19. > :57:25.appealing to people. Can I just say something in favour of bingo is that
:57:26. > :57:29.it is a fixed state communitywide of having a flutter. You do not hear
:57:30. > :57:36.about bingo addicts and stop due think it is more about community?
:57:37. > :57:44.I have 82 of these gaming machines in my constituency, 21 bookmakers.
:57:45. > :57:47.They have used loopholes in planning legislation to pretend that they are
:57:48. > :57:53.building societies and banks. It is addictive, in terms of social
:57:54. > :57:58.cohesion it is a disaster. Why are we supporting that and not bingo
:57:59. > :58:03.halls? We are singing from the same hymn
:58:04. > :58:09.sheet, I agree. When is the right time to hang up
:58:10. > :58:13.your boots. It's a question that's been vexing one of our MPs this
:58:14. > :58:23.week, here's Deborah McGurran with the 60 second round`up.
:58:24. > :58:26.Another of our long`time MPs, Alan Hazlehurst, has faced questions
:58:27. > :58:32.about his future after concerns that he could be too old to do the job
:58:33. > :58:37.will stop. Not so, claims another MP.
:58:38. > :58:42.The culture of youth is not what it is all about.
:58:43. > :58:46.The new boss of the East of England Ambulance Service came in for praise
:58:47. > :58:51.after meeting the health minister. He has stopped the old strategy that
:58:52. > :58:57.he said would not work and has set up new priorities.
:58:58. > :59:03.A rail maintenance firm has teamed up with a local college to employ
:59:04. > :59:08.local young people, and have given ten jobs.
:59:09. > :59:14.Whilst energy companies were pushed to reduce bills for those who do not
:59:15. > :59:23.pay by direct debit in his own style. We will hear from the man in
:59:24. > :59:29.the conker style suit. Stewart Jackson, could you do your
:59:30. > :59:37.job at 82 years old? Yes, absolutely. The cult of youth
:59:38. > :59:40.is overrated. There is a quiet wisdom, experience from older
:59:41. > :59:48.people. I think we are wrong to disregard that. My leader Nigel
:59:49. > :59:54.Farage says that it is a bunch of college children who are leading the
:59:55. > :00:01.country in a wrong direction. This MP is a great person for
:00:02. > :00:06.Westminster. If he can go one to convince his electors that he is up
:00:07. > :00:13.to the job, then why not? It is wrong that many people stop
:00:14. > :00:18.working at the age of 65 and MPs carry on?
:00:19. > :00:24.That is not true, people cannot be forced to quit their jobs at 65.
:00:25. > :00:28.Some people have a good relationship with their electorate, others do
:00:29. > :00:33.not. That is all for now. You can have a
:00:34. > :00:34.look at our website for political updates. We will not be here next
:00:35. > :00:41.week, but we will be back in a updates. We will not be here next
:00:42. > :00:48.direction? No, in real terms now the rent is falling in London. Andrew,
:00:49. > :00:52.back to you. Welcome back. Let's start by talking
:00:53. > :00:55.about the weather. What could be more British? It has been
:00:56. > :00:58.practically the only topic of conversation for the past few
:00:59. > :01:03.weeks. This morning, Ed Miliband has made the direct link, declaims,
:01:04. > :01:10.between this exceptionally wet and windy weather and climate change.
:01:11. > :01:14.That's an interesting development, taking place. Ed Miliband is the
:01:15. > :01:23.author of the 2008 Climate Change Act, so he has to stick to that line
:01:24. > :01:29.or his life 's work goes up in smoke. When he passed it, there was
:01:30. > :01:33.Westminster consensus. Now the Tories are beginning to appeal off.
:01:34. > :01:39.UKIP has definitely peeled off. Labour and Lib Dems are sticking to
:01:40. > :01:42.their guns, there is now a debate? It has moved from consensus to very
:01:43. > :01:45.fragile consensus. It's an interesting tactic for Ed Miliband
:01:46. > :01:49.to take. He could either approach the floods talking about government
:01:50. > :01:53.failures and handling, instead he has gone for the intellectual
:01:54. > :01:57.argument, try and turn this into a debate about ideology and climate
:01:58. > :02:01.change. I think he will find that quite difficult. Partly, I don't
:02:02. > :02:06.think the public I get listening to an argument like that. Partly
:02:07. > :02:10.because only one in three of the public totally agree with him. The
:02:11. > :02:14.polls for The Times think that about one in three think that man-made I'm
:02:15. > :02:16.a change is responsible for these floods, the rest do not. I'm not
:02:17. > :02:22.sure that the interventions floods, the rest do not. I'm not
:02:23. > :02:25.particularly well picked up. It puts David Cameron in a difficult
:02:26. > :02:28.position. He was hugging those huskies, it was going to be the
:02:29. > :02:34.greenest Government ever, and now he has an Environment secretary that
:02:35. > :02:39.doesn't really believe in climate change. Well, we don't know where he
:02:40. > :02:43.stands. That is not where he was in 2010. It has always been sold to us
:02:44. > :02:47.that he is statesman-like and pragmatic, but that drifts into he
:02:48. > :02:53.doesn't really believe anything This is a worldwide phenomenon now.
:02:54. > :02:56.You've got the Canadian government, they are pretty sceptical these
:02:57. > :03:00.days. The new Australian government is pretty sceptical. The Obama
:03:01. > :03:05.administration has been attacked by the green movement across the United
:03:06. > :03:14.States, he is probably about to approve the keystone pipeline that
:03:15. > :03:19.will take over the Texas refineries. What was a huge consensus across the
:03:20. > :03:22.globe is a guinea to break down Probably started to break down about
:03:23. > :03:26.the time of the financial crisis, the age of austerity, when suddenly
:03:27. > :03:30.people had more to worry about than green issues. Even at home it is a
:03:31. > :03:33.slightly risky tactic for Ed Miliband. The idea there is a
:03:34. > :03:38.scientific consensus on this, there isn't. You look at Professor Collins
:03:39. > :03:43.this morning, climate systems expert, saying, actually, the jet
:03:44. > :03:46.stream is not operating further south because of climate change Or
:03:47. > :03:50.if it is, it is beyond our knowledge. He flies in the face of
:03:51. > :03:57.what Ed Miliband as saying. He's saying the wet weather is caused by
:03:58. > :04:00.global warming, the head of science at Exeter University says the IPCC
:04:01. > :04:05.originally looked at whether climate change could affect what happens to
:04:06. > :04:08.the jet stream and, because it had no evidence it had any effect, it
:04:09. > :04:14.decided not to include it at all in the IPCC report. The problem we have
:04:15. > :04:19.got is that any individual phenomenon is difficult to attribute
:04:20. > :04:22.to climate change. But the Labour Leader just have? And The Met Office
:04:23. > :04:26.have done the same thing. It's a fragile in, but overall we can say
:04:27. > :04:30.we are getting more extreme weather than ever. The most extreme weather,
:04:31. > :04:36.hurricanes and tropical storm is, they have been in decline. Equally,
:04:37. > :04:42.we have had ten of the hottest summers in the last ten years since
:04:43. > :04:46.1998. Overall, there is a case that can be made that we are getting
:04:47. > :04:50.more. Each individual thing is difficult to say. Until recently,
:04:51. > :04:56.almost everyone agreed with that case. Now the parties are reflecting
:04:57. > :04:58.differences. I wanted to move on, what did you make of two interesting
:04:59. > :05:06.things that happened with the interview with UKIP and the Tories,
:05:07. > :05:11.one Cory saying I am voting to come out, and the UKIP chap saying we are
:05:12. > :05:15.maxed out on Tory defectors, we can't get any more? I think that was
:05:16. > :05:20.a dangerous admission from Patrick O'Flynn from UKIP, essentially
:05:21. > :05:23.saying that their vote has peaked. Looking at the by-elections, I'm not
:05:24. > :05:27.sure that was a particularly wise reflection on that. They got 18 ,
:05:28. > :05:33.23% last year. The case he is making is that there are more votes to be
:05:34. > :05:37.gained by attracting former Labour voters than former Tories. I'm not
:05:38. > :05:41.sure that red UKIP, the bit of UKIP that tries to make benefit
:05:42. > :05:46.protection and some other kind of social issues at the heart really
:05:47. > :05:48.sits comfortably with their insurgent, anti-state message. I
:05:49. > :05:54.don't think it will do particularly well. This is why they are pushing
:05:55. > :05:57.the message, it is their response to the idea and suggestion of a Tory
:05:58. > :06:04.rallying cry that they vote for Nigel Farage, and it is really a
:06:05. > :06:09.vote for Ed Miliband. Patrick is a very good journalist, a very good
:06:10. > :06:11.commentator. He answered almost as a commentator rather than head of
:06:12. > :06:18.communications for a political party. The Government are still
:06:19. > :06:23.trying to rid itself of troublesome priests, an attack on welfare
:06:24. > :06:30.reforms from the Catholic Archbishop of Westminster. Let's have a look
:06:31. > :06:34.and see what he said. The basic safety net that was there to
:06:35. > :06:38.guarantee that people would not be left in hunger or in destitution has
:06:39. > :06:46.actually been torn apart. It no longer exists. And it is a real
:06:47. > :06:52.real, dramatic crisis. The second is that, in this context, the
:06:53. > :06:56.administration of social assistance, I am told, has become more and more
:06:57. > :07:00.punitive. If applicants do not get it right, they have to wait and they
:07:01. > :07:07.have to wait for ten days, two weeks, with nothing. Has the basic
:07:08. > :07:10.safety net disappeared? I don't see how it is possible to argue that. It
:07:11. > :07:13.is certainly the case that there have been reductions in various
:07:14. > :07:17.benefits, some benefits have been scrapped and there is a welfare
:07:18. > :07:22.reform programme. But this country is still spending ?94 billion a year
:07:23. > :07:30.on working age benefits. Excluding pensions? The idea that this equates
:07:31. > :07:34.to some sort of wiping out of the safety net is... He has
:07:35. > :07:38.to some sort of wiping out of the full frontal assault on the Tory
:07:39. > :07:43.reforms, not the kind of attack that Labour would be prepared to make?
:07:44. > :07:50.No, they know that it doesn't play very well in the country. He's not
:07:51. > :07:53.up for election. Whether or not you agree about the safety net, I think
:07:54. > :07:58.the welfare reforms have been poorly managed and I don't think that is a
:07:59. > :08:02.full dispute. Universal credit, it is in some very long grass. It had
:08:03. > :08:04.some stupid ideas, like the idea that it would be paid monthly,
:08:05. > :08:09.instead of weekly, meaning that people are more likely to run out of
:08:10. > :08:12.money by the end of the month. It's interesting, in the past, when
:08:13. > :08:16.members of the cloth have attacked the government for welfare reforms,
:08:17. > :08:21.the Government have responded by trying to paint them as lefties
:08:22. > :08:25.ideological driven. I think that is hard in this case, an assault made
:08:26. > :08:29.ideological driven. I think that is somebody who feels they come from a
:08:30. > :08:33.centre-right position. I think there will be a bit of awkwardness about
:08:34. > :08:37.this intervention. It is not the kind of thing they wanted to see. Is
:08:38. > :08:42.it politically damaging for the Government? It is if it makes them
:08:43. > :08:46.look mean-spirited. But that is the problem with welfare reforms. You
:08:47. > :08:51.can say all sorts of things about Iain Duncan Smith's competence. But
:08:52. > :08:56.the whole thing springs from a moral mission, as he sees it, to liberate
:08:57. > :08:59.the poor and extend opportunity One of the worst moments for the Tories
:09:00. > :09:03.was blaming the low level of voting in Wythenshawe and sale in the fact
:09:04. > :09:07.that the constituency had, in the words of one senior Tory, the
:09:08. > :09:12.largest council estate in Europe inside its constituency boundary.
:09:13. > :09:17.The point being what? Because you live in a council estate you don't
:09:18. > :09:20.vote? That they don't see people living in council estate as one of
:09:21. > :09:24.them, not an impulse that Margaret Thatcher would have had. I think
:09:25. > :09:29.it's dangerous if they are painting is people as opponents rather than
:09:30. > :09:32.trying to win them over. When they do vote, they determine elections!
:09:33. > :09:39.The idea that there is no such thing as a working-class Tory is toxic. I
:09:40. > :09:46.want to show you a picture. There we go. It is behind me, on the 5th of
:09:47. > :09:54.February, it is all men. And then, on the next, look at that, the 2th,
:09:55. > :09:58.there are a few women. Not exactly many, but some. It is an
:09:59. > :10:02.improvement. But it is so transparent, isn't it? We phoned up
:10:03. > :10:07.one of the women that sat behind David Cameron to ask, why the sudden
:10:08. > :10:10.change? They said, I don't know why you are bothering to ask, it is
:10:11. > :10:15.completely natural, we didn't do anything to stage manage it. Did his
:10:16. > :10:18.nose gets longer? It is something that is very transparent and
:10:19. > :10:24.depressing about the way politicians choose to react to these moments.
:10:25. > :10:31.Every week they put two women behind David Cameron, so that a tight shot
:10:32. > :10:36.shows them. It is called the doughnut. They don't have many women
:10:37. > :10:40.to shuffle around, there are only four among 14 in the Shadow Cabinet.
:10:41. > :10:44.Also, the fact that women, younger women in particular, are much less
:10:45. > :10:50.likely to vote Tory than five or ten years ago. David Cameron, it drives
:10:51. > :10:56.and furious, he is obviously aware this is one of the biggest potential
:10:57. > :11:00.demographic problem is that they have. It also reminds us of how the
:11:01. > :11:04.public can actually see the wiring behind a lot of the stuff. Do they
:11:05. > :11:09.really think your blog so stupid that they will not notice that the
:11:10. > :11:13.following week the front bench is packed with women? I think it just
:11:14. > :11:18.increases contempt for the entire rocket. It is an issue where Labour
:11:19. > :11:23.seem to have pulled ahead of the other parties. We are being told
:11:24. > :11:29.that 50% of candidates in their 100 target seats will be female. It
:11:30. > :11:34.looks like the composition of Labour continues to go towards a kind of
:11:35. > :11:39.rough 50-50 split, eventually. Although that is true, I think the
:11:40. > :11:42.faces we see on the telly, Ed Miliband, Ed Balls, Chris Leslie,
:11:43. > :11:47.they are almost always men. There is a Rachel Reeves, a prominent female
:11:48. > :11:52.face that goes up a lot. But really, the number of e-mails they put up is
:11:53. > :12:00.proportionally a lot smaller. Is the Miliband team still a men's club?
:12:01. > :12:03.Behind the scenes, it is very blokey. It's been described as a
:12:04. > :12:09.kind of seminar room at a university. I think that is true.
:12:10. > :12:14.The Observer did the cutout and keep of the people behind Mr Miliband. As
:12:15. > :12:19.opposed to the Shadow Cabinet, with lots of women in it, it was very
:12:20. > :12:22.male. The one reason Labour have all of these women to put up in
:12:23. > :12:27.constituencies is all women short lists is. If Tories want to change
:12:28. > :12:39.things, I know they can be prone to minute -- and in relation, but they
:12:40. > :12:46.work. In ten years time, I think it will give Labour an immense
:12:47. > :12:51.advantage. By then, I think they will have a woman leader. Who will
:12:52. > :12:55.that be? Potentially somebody not even yet in the Commons. You can see
:12:56. > :13:04.how quickly people can rise to the top, but the Labour Party is going
:13:05. > :13:07.to be increasingly donated by women. Do you think there will be a Labour
:13:08. > :13:13.Leader before Theresa May becomes leader of the Conservatives? I think
:13:14. > :13:17.it is ultimately about Osborne trying to stop Boris. I think I
:13:18. > :13:25.would be astonished if she managed it. The first female Labour Leader?
:13:26. > :13:29.I would pick Rachel Reeves the way it is currently going, she knows her
:13:30. > :13:37.stuff and does well on TV. That is all for this week. We have a week
:13:38. > :13:42.off now. I'll be back in the week after next. Remember, if it is
:13:43. > :13:45.Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics, unless it's a Parliamentary recess.