:00:36. > :00:41.Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. The dust has barely
:00:42. > :00:44.settled on George Osborne's Sunday Politics. The dust has barely
:00:45. > :00:47.and, amazingly, for once it hasn't all gone horribly wrong by the
:00:48. > :00:52.weekend. So, is this the election springboard the Tories needed, and
:00:53. > :00:55.where does it leave Labour? Turns out the big Budget surprise was a
:00:56. > :00:59.revolution in how we pay for old age. The Pensions Minister says he's
:01:00. > :01:05.relaxed if you want to spend it all on a Lamborghini. He'll join us
:01:06. > :01:08.later. And could the man with the maracas be on his way to
:01:09. > :01:10.Westminster? Bez from the Happy Mondays tells us about his unlikely
:01:11. > :01:13.plan And here: The workers with zero
:01:14. > :01:25.confidence in zero hours contracts. stay in Axbridge. Are there ways of
:01:26. > :01:38.making the European arrest warrant work better? -- Uxbridge. And who
:01:39. > :01:41.better to help guide you through all of that than three journalists, who
:01:42. > :01:44.dispense wisdom faster than Grant Shapps calls out the numbers in his
:01:45. > :01:47.local bingo hall over a pint of beer. Yes, they're hard-working and
:01:48. > :01:53.they're doing the things they enjoy. Cup of tea, number three. It's Nick
:01:54. > :01:59.Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.
:02:00. > :02:04.So, George Osborne delivered his fifth Budget on Wednesday and had so
:02:05. > :02:08.many glowing front pages the day afterwards he must be running out of
:02:09. > :02:11.room to pin them up in on his bedroom wall. Although it's probably
:02:12. > :02:14.a pretty big wall. For those of you who didn't have time to watch 3 5
:02:15. > :02:16.hours of Budget coverage on the BBC, here's Giles with the whole thing in
:02:17. > :02:47.three minutes. Budget days have a rhythm of their
:02:48. > :02:50.own, driven partly by tradition like that photocall at 11 Downing
:02:51. > :02:53.Street and part logistics, how to get this important statement out and
:02:54. > :03:06.explain to those whom it affects - us? Behind-the-scenes of a Budget
:03:07. > :03:10.Day is much the same. This ritual red boxery may be the beginning of
:03:11. > :03:13.the end of weeks of work behind the scenes in the Treasury and sets the
:03:14. > :03:16.clock ticking on the process of finding out the answer to one
:03:17. > :03:19.question. You got any rabbits in the box, Chancellor? Yes, there will be
:03:20. > :03:20.something in the Budget we don't know about. Time marches steadily
:03:21. > :03:23.towards the statement know about. Time marches steadily
:03:24. > :03:30.commentators are hovering over what those potential surprises are. As
:03:31. > :03:32.Big Ben chimes, all focus returns to the Commons, where there is Prime
:03:33. > :03:38.Minister's questions and the Chancellor gets up and does his
:03:39. > :03:41.thing. Once he's on his feet and remembering there is still no copy
:03:42. > :03:46.of the details, the major measures are rapidly highlighted as they come
:03:47. > :03:53.and then put up on screen. A cap on Government welfare spending set for
:03:54. > :03:58.2015/16 at 119 billion. Income tax personal allowance raised to
:03:59. > :04:01.?10,500. Bingo duty halved, which ticked boxes for some but was
:04:02. > :04:07.unlikely to make anyone a poster boy. And the beer tax cut of 1p or
:04:08. > :04:10.the froth on the top. And changes to pensions allowing people to take
:04:11. > :04:19.their money out in one lump sum rather than being forced to accept a
:04:20. > :04:22.fixed annual pay-out, or annuity. This is a Budget for the makers the
:04:23. > :04:26.doers and the savers and I commend it to the House. Not everyone can
:04:27. > :04:30.focus on the Budget by listening to what the Chancellor says. We need to
:04:31. > :04:34.get a copy of the script. We do not get that till he sits down. I'm
:04:35. > :04:41.going to go into the House of Commons to get that right now. There
:04:42. > :04:44.will be a response on that and all the other things from Mr Miliband.
:04:45. > :04:47.The Chancellor spoke for nearly an hour but he did not mention one
:04:48. > :04:52.essential fact, the working people of Britain are worse off under the
:04:53. > :04:55.Tories. It is a tricky job answering the Budget at the best of times
:04:56. > :04:57.though some, including Labour MPs, think it is better to mention the
:04:58. > :05:06.Budget when you do. Here we are. I am going to go. I am
:05:07. > :05:08.not the only journalist missing Ed Miliband's speech.
:05:09. > :05:10.not the only journalist missing Ed the Chamber as the Chancellor sits
:05:11. > :05:18.down to attend a special briefing from the Chancellor's advisory team.
:05:19. > :05:21.I am hotfoot to the studio. There is a little more detail to the Budget
:05:22. > :05:24.than the Budget Speech. That detail can be whether words unravel and
:05:25. > :05:27.other interpretations emerge. By now the gaggle of supporters and
:05:28. > :05:36.detractors are taking the debate onto the airwaves. Are you the BBC?
:05:37. > :05:39.Have the Daily Politics packed up? No, we're still standing and, days
:05:40. > :05:42.later, still trying to assess whether the measures announced still
:05:43. > :05:44.seem fresh and appetising or have already gone stale in the minds of
:05:45. > :06:00.voters? How significant are these two poles
:06:01. > :06:09.this morning putting Labour and Tory nip and tuck? Osborne gave his party
:06:10. > :06:14.a good bounce. It was an astonishingly theatrical coup. At
:06:15. > :06:18.first glance, it seems like a huge gift to all people. That is where
:06:19. > :06:22.all of the money has been channelled by this government. They have been
:06:23. > :06:28.ultra-protected, triple locked. Pensioners have done very well and
:06:29. > :06:32.others less well. It is not surprising. Normally a budget which
:06:33. > :06:38.is well received on the day and the day after has unravelled by the
:06:39. > :06:43.weekend. This time, it has not, so far. The dangerous thing for the
:06:44. > :06:47.Labour Party now, George Osborne is the assessment this thing called the
:06:48. > :06:52.baseline. He says, in government, you must control the baseline. The
:06:53. > :06:57.Labour party controlled in 2001 and 2005 and he needs to control it next
:06:58. > :07:02.time. He is controlling it on fiscal policy because labour is matching
:07:03. > :07:06.them on everything. The danger for Labour on the big, headline grabbing
:07:07. > :07:10.issue, which was freeing up annuities on pensions, that again
:07:11. > :07:14.Labour was pretty much saying it was going to support it though it were
:07:15. > :07:19.saying it has to be fair and cost-effective. On a big, policy
:07:20. > :07:24.issue, they are following on behind George Osborne. George Osborne is
:07:25. > :07:33.controlling the crucial baseline. Are we in danger of reading too much
:07:34. > :07:37.into the political implications of the budget? The good thing about the
:07:38. > :07:42.pensions policy is, if it does unravel, it will not happen for ten
:07:43. > :07:46.years and, by that time, George Osborne will have left office.
:07:47. > :07:51.Towards the end of his speech, I thought, that is not enough. There
:07:52. > :07:56.is not an idea in your budget which is politically very vivid a year
:07:57. > :08:00.before an election. What I underestimated was, how many
:08:01. > :08:06.frustrated savers that are in the country. There are a lot of people
:08:07. > :08:11.who are frustrated by low interest rates and tax rates on pension pots.
:08:12. > :08:16.This was an explicit gesture for them. That is what has paid off in
:08:17. > :08:21.the polls in the past few days. You spend all of your money on your
:08:22. > :08:26.wardrobe, is that right? The bingo poster was a kind of get out of jail
:08:27. > :08:30.card for Labour. It gave them something to zoom in on. Everyone
:08:31. > :08:36.beat up on Grant Shapps, the Tory chairman. We read in the daily
:08:37. > :08:42.Telegraph that the fingerprints of the Chancellor were all over this
:08:43. > :08:50.poster. The Chancellor signed off it -- off on it and so did Lynton
:08:51. > :08:58.Crosby. They referred to working class people as, they are. How did
:08:59. > :09:02.it get into the Telegraph? We can only presume but grant Shapps made
:09:03. > :09:07.it clear that it was not him. We had a time when Labour politicians, we
:09:08. > :09:10.saw from the response of Ed Miliband onwards, they were not quite sure
:09:11. > :09:16.how to react to this budget. A lot of detail had to be absorbed.
:09:17. > :09:27.Suddenly, here is something we can talk about. You can see the thinking
:09:28. > :09:29.behind the poster was very sensible. We are not Tory toffs, we are
:09:30. > :09:32.interested in helping people who do not come from our backgrounds. The
:09:33. > :09:38.wording was awful and played into every cliche. It was all his fault.
:09:39. > :09:47.It shows how unsophisticated he was. There were people from Tory HQ
:09:48. > :09:58.who agreed the budget. A month down the line will the budget look as
:09:59. > :10:01.good? Probably. Once people look at it, pensions are fiendishly
:10:02. > :10:05.conjugated. Once they look and see what it will do with people having
:10:06. > :10:09.to pay for their own care because they can now take capital at their
:10:10. > :10:14.pension, that will come as a shock to a lot of people with small
:10:15. > :10:22.savings. It all be gone on their care. The polling will be neck and
:10:23. > :10:23.neck all the way. In the past, George Osborne has been accused of
:10:24. > :10:27.neck all the way. In the past, using his Budgets to tinker at the
:10:28. > :10:29.margins or pull cheap tricks on his political opponents. Perish the
:10:30. > :10:32.thought. But the big surprise in this year's statement was a
:10:33. > :10:42.genuinely radical shake-up of the pensions system that will affect
:10:43. > :10:46.most people who've yet to retire. At the moment, everyone is saving money
:10:47. > :10:52.into a defined contribution pension, that is the type most common in the
:10:53. > :10:57.private sector. They can take 2 % of the pot is a tax-free lump sum when
:10:58. > :11:01.they retire. The rest of the money, for most people, they are forced to
:11:02. > :11:05.buy an annuity, a form of insurance which provide a guaranteed monthly
:11:06. > :11:10.income until they die. Annuities have hardly been a bargain since
:11:11. > :11:15.interest rates were flat slashed following the financial crash. Even
:11:16. > :11:21.with a ?100,000 following the financial crash. Even
:11:22. > :11:24.only get an income of ?5,800 a year at current rates. From 2018,
:11:25. > :11:28.pensioners will not be forced to buy an annuity. They can do what they
:11:29. > :11:33.like with their money, even taking the entire pot as a lump some but
:11:34. > :11:45.paying tax on 75% of it. With an average pension pot closer
:11:46. > :11:53.to around ?30,000, pensioners would be more likely to buy a Skoda
:11:54. > :11:58.instead of a Lamborghini. Most newly retired people who take the cash are
:11:59. > :12:02.more likely to spend the money paying off their mortgage, helping a
:12:03. > :12:05.family member to buy a property or investing the money elsewhere. Well,
:12:06. > :12:08.earlier I spoke to the Pensions Minister. He's a Lib Dem called
:12:09. > :12:09.Steve Webb. I began by asking him if he still thought the
:12:10. > :12:16.Steve Webb. I began by asking him if lead to pensioners splurging all
:12:17. > :12:20.their savings on supercars. What this reform is about is treating
:12:21. > :12:24.people as adults. For far too long, we have said, we will make sure you
:12:25. > :12:28.save for your old age and then we will control each year how much is
:12:29. > :12:33.spent on what you spend it on. What we are saying is because we have
:12:34. > :12:37.formed -- reformed the state pension, we will be much more
:12:38. > :12:41.relaxed about what people do with their own money. The evidence is
:12:42. > :12:45.that people who have been frugal and saved hard for retirement do not
:12:46. > :12:49.generally blows a lot. They will spin it out. It is treating people
:12:50. > :12:55.as adults and giving them choices they should have had all along. It
:12:56. > :13:01.is a red herring, isn't it? The average pension pot is between 5000
:13:02. > :13:09.and 30,000. Lamborghinis aren't an option, correct? I gather only about
:13:10. > :13:13.5000 people a year retiring can buy a flashy Italian sports car. It
:13:14. > :13:16.might be about paying off a mortgage, paying off outstanding
:13:17. > :13:20.debts. Maybe spending more money earlier in retirement when they are
:13:21. > :13:25.fit and able and can enjoy it more. We will give people guidance. We
:13:26. > :13:28.will make sure when they retire there is someone to have a
:13:29. > :13:32.conversation with talking through the implications of spending the
:13:33. > :13:40.money early and options of investing it. This will be a real step
:13:41. > :13:43.forward. Even if you have a much bigger pension pot, say half ?1
:13:44. > :13:47.million, which is way bigger than the average, even then the marginal
:13:48. > :13:53.rates of tax will be a disincentive to take it all out at once. You will
:13:54. > :14:00.lose huge chunks of it at the 4 % band and then the 45% band. The tax
:14:01. > :14:04.system gives you the incentive to spread it out if the tax threshold
:14:05. > :14:09.is a bit over 10000 and the state pension is a bit over 7000, the
:14:10. > :14:18.first 3000 you draw out in a given year is tax-free. The next band is
:14:19. > :14:21.at 20%. Spreading your money will mean you pay less tax. That is why,
:14:22. > :14:26.in general, people will not blow the lot up front. They will spread it
:14:27. > :14:31.out over their retirement. You have kept this policy quiet. Not even a
:14:32. > :14:38.hint. How did you test it? How did you make sure it would be robust?
:14:39. > :14:42.You did not do a consultation. I have been talking about freeing up
:14:43. > :14:46.the annuity market for a decade The idea of giving people more choice.
:14:47. > :14:50.The government has relaxed rules over this Parliament. It was not a
:14:51. > :14:53.completely new idea. We know in places like Australia and America,
:14:54. > :15:02.people have these freedoms. We already have something to judge it
:15:03. > :15:04.by. We will spend the next year talking to people, working it
:15:05. > :15:07.through. There will be a three-month consultation. I want people to have
:15:08. > :15:12.choices about their own money. There is detail still to be worked out and
:15:13. > :15:16.we are in listening mode about how we implement it. When you announce
:15:17. > :15:21.something you cannot do widespread consultation, for the reasons I have
:15:22. > :15:24.given, you do run the risk of unforeseen consequences? Pension
:15:25. > :15:27.companies this morning are indicating, you, the government can
:15:28. > :15:35.write you are looking for ?25 billion of infrastructure investment
:15:36. > :15:42.from us. You hold our shell below the water line. That may not happen.
:15:43. > :15:58.We spoke internally about the implications for instruction --
:15:59. > :16:06.infrastructure. It seems to me there will still be long-term investments.
:16:07. > :16:11.Many people want to turn their whole pot into an income. I understand the
:16:12. > :16:14.insurance companies are lobbying, but I'm convinced there will still
:16:15. > :16:19.be plenty of money for investment and infrastructure. If the
:16:20. > :16:27.Chancellor's pro-savings measures work, that will generate more
:16:28. > :16:29.savings. With no requirement now to buy an annuity, surely it is the
:16:30. > :16:36.case that pension pots buy an annuity, surely it is the
:16:37. > :16:42.ordinary savings fund, so why should they continue to get favourable tax
:16:43. > :16:47.treatment? Bear in mind that a lot of the tax treatment of pensioners
:16:48. > :16:52.is tax deferred so most people pay tax at the standard rate. If they
:16:53. > :17:00.put money into a pension, they don't pay tax when they earn it, but they
:17:01. > :17:05.do at retirement. We do want, we will still have automatic enrolment
:17:06. > :17:10.into workplace pensions, we do want people to build up, because at age
:17:11. > :17:17.20 and 30 nobody thinks about retirement. It is still vital that
:17:18. > :17:23.people do reach retirement to have these new choices with a decent
:17:24. > :17:28.sized pension pot. Pensions. Tax breaks because they were supposed to
:17:29. > :17:32.provide an income in retirement that is how it was structured, but
:17:33. > :17:39.that is no longer a requirement surely that undermines the case that
:17:40. > :17:45.if they get tax breaks, other forms of savings should get tax breaks.
:17:46. > :17:59.Other forms do get tax breaks, of course. The return with ISAs is tax
:18:00. > :18:08.free. The point with pensions is that you are simply deferring your
:18:09. > :18:11.earnings. There is a bit when high tax rate payers get a kick when they
:18:12. > :18:17.are working and then retire on standard rate, so there is the issue
:18:18. > :18:21.of the top getting too many tax breaks, but the basic principle that
:18:22. > :18:29.you pay tax when you get the income seems right to me and isn't affected
:18:30. > :18:33.by these changes. You have announced save friendly measures, are we right
:18:34. > :18:38.to look at them as a consolation prize because savers have suffered
:18:39. > :18:43.from the Government's policy of keeping interest rates abnormally
:18:44. > :18:49.low? It is certainly the case that very low interest rates have been a
:18:50. > :18:52.huge boon to people of working age with mortgages, and people who have
:18:53. > :18:59.retired said they thought they could have got a better deal on their
:19:00. > :19:03.savings. I think there is a recognition that whilst we have done
:19:04. > :19:10.the right thing with pensioners on the state pension, we have brought
:19:11. > :19:19.in the triple lock, and many will bent on -- benefit from these
:19:20. > :19:24.changes. Why don't savers who are not pensioners get the same help?
:19:25. > :19:30.They have been hit by low interest rates as well. Those of working
:19:31. > :19:35.age, many of them say they have benefited from low interest rates
:19:36. > :19:43.was predominantly people in retirement have not had the benefit.
:19:44. > :19:52.Obviously people of working age will have benefited from the tax
:19:53. > :19:57.allowance so it is a myth to say the Budget was all about pensioners And
:19:58. > :19:59.yet even when the Office for Budget Responsibility takes into account
:20:00. > :20:02.your new measures, it still Responsibility takes into account
:20:03. > :20:09.that over the next five years households will save less and less,
:20:10. > :20:16.indeed the savings ratio falls by 50%. You haven't done enough. One of
:20:17. > :20:20.the things we know is that the economy is picking up strongly, and
:20:21. > :20:23.as we have more confidence about the future they will be more willing to
:20:24. > :20:28.consume now, so without these measures it may be that the saving
:20:29. > :20:36.rate would have fallen further. We want people to save and spend, it is
:20:37. > :20:39.about getting the right balance As the economy picks up, people will
:20:40. > :20:46.want to spend more of their money and it is about getting the balance
:20:47. > :20:49.right. You make the point that if people are little profligate with
:20:50. > :20:51.their private pensions, they will have the state pension to fall back
:20:52. > :20:56.on and it will be higher than it have the state pension to fall back
:20:57. > :21:01.been, but it is also the case that in these circumstances they will
:21:02. > :21:06.still be entitled to housing benefit and even to perhaps some council tax
:21:07. > :21:13.benefit as well. Do you know by how much this could put the welfare bill
:21:14. > :21:18.up? We think the impact will be relatively modest because the sort
:21:19. > :21:22.of people who save for a pension and make sacrifices while they are at
:21:23. > :21:29.work are not the sort of people who get to 65 and decide to blow the lot
:21:30. > :21:32.for the great privilege of receiving council tax benefit or housing
:21:33. > :21:44.benefit. There will be people on the margins and
:21:45. > :21:45.benefit. There will be people on the who retire with some capital want to
:21:46. > :21:52.put some money away for their funeral. People like to save even
:21:53. > :21:57.into retirement so the myth of the spendthrift pensioner I don't
:21:58. > :22:03.believe. I think this has been rightly welcomed. Ever fancied a
:22:04. > :22:18.Lamborghini yourself? If you turned the camera around you would see my
:22:19. > :22:21.2-door Corsa! What's your favourite thing about an
:22:22. > :22:24.election? Could it be the candidates ringing on your door while you're
:22:25. > :22:27.having dinner? The leaflets piling up on your doormat? Or the endless
:22:28. > :22:30.adverts aimed at hardworking families? Well, if you thought that
:22:31. > :22:33.was bad enough, then you might want to consider going overseas for the
:22:34. > :22:36.2015 election because the parties are going to be aiming their message
:22:37. > :22:42.at you like never before. Adam's been to Worcester to find out more.
:22:43. > :22:48.One of the most famous political figures in history lived here, she
:22:49. > :22:52.is called Worcester woman. She was in her 30s, working class with a
:22:53. > :22:56.couple of kids, aspirational yet worried about quality of life. But
:22:57. > :23:01.she wasn't a real person, she was a label for the kind of voter new
:23:02. > :23:08.Labour were trying to reach and she was later joined by Mondeo man and
:23:09. > :23:12.several others. Doesn't that all seem a bit 90s? The technique,
:23:13. > :23:19.called segmentation, was used by George Bush in 2004. Then refined by
:23:20. > :23:25.Barack Obama. Rather than focusing on crude measures like cars and
:23:26. > :23:29.hometowns, they delved into the minds of voters. It is not just
:23:30. > :23:35.women, not just people who live in cities, but if you start to put
:23:36. > :23:40.together these groups of people you can even in an anecdote or way
:23:41. > :23:48.imagine who they are, what types of language and imagery might relate to
:23:49. > :23:53.them. We have been given access to a new polling model being used here by
:23:54. > :24:00.this firm, which is pretty close to the one we are told is being used by
:24:01. > :24:04.the Tories. It carves the country into six personality types, and we
:24:05. > :24:10.are trying it out on Worcester woman and wast of man. We are using an
:24:11. > :24:18.online quiz to work out who is in which segment. Meet new monk,
:24:19. > :24:25.Susie. She feels well represented. I know the Budget and the increases to
:24:26. > :24:30.childcare, I think at the moment I am fairly represented. This puts her
:24:31. > :24:35.in the category of optimistic contentment, people who feel they
:24:36. > :24:43.are doing OK. Terry, on the other hand, isn't happy about Britain
:24:44. > :24:52.today. Health and safety and all that! I hardly recognise the country
:24:53. > :24:59.a living in any more? Yes. Are you ready for the result? He is Mr
:25:00. > :25:03.comfortable nostalgia, they tend to favour the Tories and UKIP. They
:25:04. > :25:09.dislike the cultural changes they see as altering Britain for the
:25:10. > :25:17.worst. That sums me up. Tony is worried as well but feels much less
:25:18. > :25:25.secure. I look forward to the future with optimism or anxiety? Anxiety.
:25:26. > :25:35.Optimist or pessimist? Pessimist. His category is... You feel a bit
:25:36. > :25:42.insecure, you think the Government could probably help you more? Yes.
:25:43. > :25:48.Labour picks up a lot of these voters. This man is being asked to
:25:49. > :25:56.do more and more at work, but he is getting less and less. I am getting
:25:57. > :26:01.more towards the despair side. Things are getting tougher,
:26:02. > :26:07.generally? It puts him into the segment called long-term despair,
:26:08. > :26:17.people who feel left out. Finally, this is ever thoughtful Carol. I am
:26:18. > :26:24.a bit of an idealist. Her idealism makes her a cosmopolitan critic I
:26:25. > :26:28.am a liberal person. Apparently a lot of the media fit into this
:26:29. > :26:33.category as well. There is one group of voters we have not come across,
:26:34. > :26:38.people who show calm persistence. They hope things will get better but
:26:39. > :26:43.don't expect them to. They are coping, rather than comfortable
:26:44. > :26:48.Presumably they are all out of work. Which group are you win? You can
:26:49. > :26:53.take the poll on the BBC website, and in the coming weeks we will be
:26:54. > :27:00.doing our own polling using the six segments to see of the politicians
:27:01. > :27:04.really have worked out how we think. And as Adam said, if you want to try
:27:05. > :27:07.the survey for yourself, you can go to the BBC website and click on the
:27:08. > :27:16.link. And we're joined now by the
:27:17. > :27:22.pollster, Rick Nye. Welcome to Sunday Politics. We have had
:27:23. > :27:29.Worcester woman, Worcester man, is this any different? It is a
:27:30. > :27:42.recognition that or politician - all politics these days is like
:27:43. > :27:50.this. It enables them to cut them more finally. You think all politics
:27:51. > :27:55.is coalition politics, you think they have to put together these
:27:56. > :28:01.groups of people, not that the Lib Dems will always be in power? No,
:28:02. > :28:07.and if you listen to the coverage these days you might think it is
:28:08. > :28:12.about grumpy old men on the one hand with Guardian readers on the other.
:28:13. > :28:15.It is far more complicated than that, there is a lot of churning
:28:16. > :28:23.going on underneath which is driven by people's value systems. A lot of
:28:24. > :28:28.this has been pioneered in the United States, very sophisticated on
:28:29. > :28:33.their election techniques, and in Britain we are always the first to
:28:34. > :28:38.grab whatever the New Year will is from America. How do you think this
:28:39. > :28:41.will translate to this country? I think it means that if you are
:28:42. > :28:47.target photo you will still get the same of leaflets and people calling,
:28:48. > :28:52.but you will probably have different kinds of conversations because
:28:53. > :28:59.people on the other side, the party campaigners, will think they know
:29:00. > :29:03.more about you. Will I know who you are? If I am a party campaigner
:29:04. > :29:08.will I know, looking down the street, who fits into which
:29:09. > :29:11.category? You will be able to approximate that with all of the
:29:12. > :29:17.other data that you have gathered through polling, or doing local
:29:18. > :29:23.campaigning, that is the idea to make sense of this vast quantity of
:29:24. > :29:28.data people have about voters. We asked our panel to fill in your
:29:29. > :29:34.survey. Nick is optimistic contentment, 99%. He was 1%
:29:35. > :29:40.cosmopolitan critic, which is how he keeps his job at the Guardian.
:29:41. > :29:46.Polly's job could not be more secure, 100% cosmopolitan critics,
:29:47. > :29:50.and Janan Ganesh, optimistic contentment, which is what you would
:29:51. > :30:06.expect from a financial Times columnist. What do you make of this
:30:07. > :30:16.technique? Why are you only 99? It sounds really clever. 95% of the
:30:17. > :30:20.population five years ago voted Labour or the Conservatives. We have
:30:21. > :30:26.got away from that. It is coalition politics. You need sophisticated
:30:27. > :30:30.methods. Presumably you must not lose touch with basic points. You
:30:31. > :30:34.methods. Presumably you must not said it was used in the US
:30:35. > :30:40.presidential elections. Wasn't there them moment emit Romney 's sweet
:30:41. > :30:46.when the initial response was, we did not know the sort of people
:30:47. > :30:52.voted. His next response was, we did not know these people existed.
:30:53. > :30:57.Unless you know about certain key demographics, you are wasting your
:30:58. > :31:04.time. Is it important in modern campaigning? I think it is useful
:31:05. > :31:14.because it is about attitude. We have got Mosaic. We have got Acorn.
:31:15. > :31:18.It does not tell us very much. What people think and feel may be
:31:19. > :31:20.different to their income. You can be quite a high earner and anxious.
:31:21. > :31:24.You can be quite a low be quite a high earner and anxious.
:31:25. > :31:31.feeling aspirational and optimistic about the future. I think this does
:31:32. > :31:36.get something else. In days gone by, particularly in America,
:31:37. > :31:40.overwhelmingly, if you are in the better of segment, you would be
:31:41. > :31:44.Republican and the blue-collar workers and some academics and
:31:45. > :31:49.Liberals voted Democrat. In the last election, the richest 200 counties
:31:50. > :31:54.in America voted Democrat. That is an attitude thing. Income does not
:31:55. > :31:59.tell you how people will vote. There is a huge, working-class base of
:32:00. > :32:03.support for the Republicans. It is unavoidable. Add a time when people
:32:04. > :32:12.no longer identify with ideologies or class blocks, you have to go the
:32:13. > :32:22.temperament and lifestyle and manageable. In America there were
:32:23. > :32:27.128 segments according to lifestyle and Outlook. Once you get to that
:32:28. > :32:32.stage, it becomes close to useless. We were talking about the budget
:32:33. > :32:40.earlier. What other polls saying about the budget? The lead of labour
:32:41. > :32:48.has been narrowed over the Conservatives. -- Labour. Osborne
:32:49. > :32:54.and Cameron as an academic team have always had a lead over Miller band
:32:55. > :32:56.and Balls. This week it is about economic management. -- over Mr
:32:57. > :33:12.Miller band. Thank you for being with us today.
:33:13. > :33:16.It's just gone 11:30am. You're watching the Sunday Politics. We say
:33:17. > :33:17.goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now for Sunday Politics
:33:18. > :33:19.Scotland. Coming up here in 20 Scotland. Coming up here in 20
:33:20. > :33:33.minutes: Hello and welcome. Coming up into
:33:34. > :33:43.deep's programme, the pros `nd cons of zero hours contracts. `` today's
:33:44. > :33:49.programme. One week I could be working zero hours, the next 50
:33:50. > :34:00.hours. And we ask how do yot get money from the Treasury in `n age of
:34:01. > :34:10.austerity? So let's meet our guests. David roughly for the Conservatives.
:34:11. > :34:18.And foreign Labour, Sharon Taylor, the leader of Stevenage Borough
:34:19. > :34:22.Council. In the week that Gdorge Osborne said we should get Britain
:34:23. > :34:32.building, we are going to start with housing. Our sister programle East
:34:33. > :34:44.has been looking at how thotsands of homes have planning permisshon but
:34:45. > :34:50.have not been built. We need to build 20,000 houses per year but we
:34:51. > :34:54.are only building 11,000. For years on, under the coalition,
:34:55. > :35:02.house`building is at a level we have not seen since 1923, how can we get
:35:03. > :35:10.this building done now? Letters up 10% from where it was put ydars ago.
:35:11. > :35:14.It is more attractive note for developers to use the land backs
:35:15. > :35:21.which they have got because of the right to buy programme. That is
:35:22. > :35:25.getting more people there whth mortgages. The more house btyers
:35:26. > :35:30.there are with ready cash, the developers will build. Therd have
:35:31. > :35:40.been plenty of chances to do more already, haven't they? It h`s
:35:41. > :35:47.allowed a lot more mortgages at low rates, the news scheme. Let's talk
:35:48. > :35:53.about the so`called land banking. Ed Miliband said in Stevenage hf
:35:54. > :36:00.developers did not fill the land would be taken from them, how is
:36:01. > :36:05.that even possible? Part of the cost of living prices is related to
:36:06. > :36:12.housing, particularly in our region were renting is high and we have got
:36:13. > :36:17.to get building which will leet the real difference to get people into
:36:18. > :36:24.homes at a price they can afford. The lot can be done. We do not know
:36:25. > :36:29.have a programme where we c`n tie up together all the different local
:36:30. > :36:34.Lanning plans that councils are making to ask if it will add up to
:36:35. > :36:40.the total number of houses we need to deliver. Secondly, counchls can
:36:41. > :36:45.do a lot more to deliver hotsing in Stevenage. We have bought houses on
:36:46. > :36:50.the open market and let thel out as council houses. We need the
:36:51. > :36:56.borrowing cap on our housing account to be lifted. We will pay it back
:36:57. > :37:02.through the rental scheme and that will be one way of getting dvil more
:37:03. > :37:06.affordable housing. The jobless total for the country went down
:37:07. > :37:11.again for this month while the figure for this region went up by
:37:12. > :37:19.7000. Are those in work in proper jobs? The number on the door our
:37:20. > :37:23.contract is growing. These `llowed companies to hire workers whthout
:37:24. > :37:31.guaranteeing a set number of hours. What is it like for employeds? This
:37:32. > :37:35.man used to work full`time `s a scaffolder when he was bettdr but
:37:36. > :37:42.more recently he has been working on a zero hours contract at a fast`food
:37:43. > :37:47.outlet. I did not know what I was working from one week to thd next,
:37:48. > :37:55.one week could be a Towers, the next 50, the next ten. There is no
:37:56. > :38:01.financial security. One month I might get eight, the next I might
:38:02. > :38:06.get 12, it is whatever I do. I am always asking for full`time hours
:38:07. > :38:15.but I have not had them. I have been working there for over two xears
:38:16. > :38:24.now. She has been doing a zdro hours contract. The same they do not
:38:25. > :38:32.clear. These are the shift `nd if you do not like it moved on. Could
:38:33. > :38:37.you look on? I am looking for work but I don't know, work is h`rd to
:38:38. > :38:42.come by, every job has loads of people applying for it. Young
:38:43. > :38:46.people, graduates come out `ll the time. I am a graduate myself by
:38:47. > :38:55.proper full`time workers hard to find. There were almost 583,000
:38:56. > :39:00.employees on zero hours contracts last year, more than double the
:39:01. > :39:05.government estimate. They h`ve grown so much that the consultation was
:39:06. > :39:08.launched into them were looking into exclusivity, contracts that can find
:39:09. > :39:13.people to working for only one employer and transparency. People
:39:14. > :39:21.not being told they may havd no work. Essex University is one of
:39:22. > :39:27.several throughout the region who employ people on zero hours. There
:39:28. > :39:36.are instances of people on zero hours contract year. Individuals
:39:37. > :39:44.have come to me on these contracts. Several other universities `lso use
:39:45. > :39:46.zero hours contracts but here at the University of Essex, bobble
:39:47. > :39:53.postgraduates that assist whth the gene may be on zero hours, they are
:39:54. > :39:59.adamant that lecturers are not. We never had a reason to use zdro hours
:40:00. > :40:09.for poor lecturing staff and I do not see us changing that pr`ctice.
:40:10. > :40:15.It is going all for the employer, what about the little man, what
:40:16. > :40:20.about me? Sheila had three lonths without any work last year `nd has
:40:21. > :40:28.to rely on her family to help out. It is hard, I just tell my kids to
:40:29. > :40:34.weeks ahead that this month my wages will be less so between thel they
:40:35. > :40:38.will be two or ?300 or one of them will pay the mortgage for md
:40:39. > :40:47.otherwise I would have lost the house. What do employers make of it?
:40:48. > :40:55.I have a spokesman from the Institute of directors. Flexibility
:40:56. > :41:01.for Sheila means unpredictability, she says she cannot pay the
:41:02. > :41:07.mortgage. That might be the case in an isolated example but flexibility
:41:08. > :41:12.means more jobs and zero hotrs contracts divide them for ydars with
:41:13. > :41:16.an opportunity. In the environment we have had recently where there
:41:17. > :41:19.have been difficult economic times they can actually provide jobs with
:41:20. > :41:28.the otherwise would not havd been able to. Will there be fewer of
:41:29. > :41:32.these contracts if they upttrned in the economy continues? I am
:41:33. > :41:39.uncomfortable with the general rhetoric around zero our contracts.
:41:40. > :41:45.I speak to a lot of businesses and business leaders. Things th`t
:41:46. > :41:51.concern them are how do thex pay suppliers? They are not setting out
:41:52. > :41:55.to get their employee a hard time, these contracts have them the
:41:56. > :42:00.opportunity to provide work were otherwise they would not have been
:42:01. > :42:05.able to do that. They have not invented them. As the econoly
:42:06. > :42:12.improves there may be fewer of them. Do you agree that often the ball is
:42:13. > :42:18.in the employer's court. Th`t does not suit people, they need lore
:42:19. > :42:23.protection and stability. I do not think that isn't highly fair. You
:42:24. > :42:28.need to see the flexibility from the point of view of the worker as well.
:42:29. > :42:32.People have the opportunity to work around their lives as well `s the
:42:33. > :42:36.employer having flexibility and being able to offer work were the
:42:37. > :42:42.otherwise would not be able to. There is a point around burdensome
:42:43. > :42:47.legislation and red tape, it is all very well talking about verx large
:42:48. > :42:52.companies but think about slaller employers. A business with only up
:42:53. > :42:57.to six members of staff in the team it is the big decision to t`ke
:42:58. > :43:01.another member of staff on. Without the flexibility of these
:43:02. > :43:07.arrangements they could not take anyone on. I can`macro what do you
:43:08. > :43:15.say`macro to Unison who talk about workers being held to ransol and not
:43:16. > :43:20.getting the work protection they deserve? That is very strong
:43:21. > :43:24.language and the sort of rhdtoric I am talking about. Most employers are
:43:25. > :43:34.simply trying to make a livhng, to generate wealth and pay taxds. That
:43:35. > :43:40.is what is fuelling the govdrnment. We will come back to you shortly.
:43:41. > :43:45.Sheila in the film, evidencd of public sector jobs moving into the
:43:46. > :43:50.private sector. These are the kinds of jobs your government is creating,
:43:51. > :43:55.they do not always exist? The rise of zero our contracts giving
:43:56. > :44:02.employers and read it need not otherwise exist. I would expect and
:44:03. > :44:08.hope that more permanent jobs or part`time jobs with fixed hours and
:44:09. > :44:14.predictability, those kind of jobs will be treated as the recovery
:44:15. > :44:18.takes hold. I think the zero hours increase is hugely a function of
:44:19. > :44:31.this located climate patterns because of the 2008/9 crash. RDB
:44:32. > :44:45.will jobs? Of course they are. `` are the real jobs. It is pahd work,
:44:46. > :44:51.it is a good thing. As the recovery takes old I think we will gdt more
:44:52. > :44:55.conversion into permanent jobs. It is not good enough to say`m`cro
:44:56. > :45:02.these deliver flexibility for the void. Look at the instability we
:45:03. > :45:08.heard in your film. If you do not know whether you will be working two
:45:09. > :45:20.hours or 50 hours, how do you manage your childcare and bells? A job is
:45:21. > :45:25.better than no job at all. Hf we had a benefit system that could cope
:45:26. > :45:31.with these sort of rapid ch`nges it would help a bit but we need
:45:32. > :45:41.well`trained employees in this region to be in a good job. Do these
:45:42. > :45:45.contracts need scrapping? I would like to ban them, they are not good
:45:46. > :45:51.for the economy or the individuals who are victims of them. Th`t is
:45:52. > :45:57.completely wrong. We cannot sit here and pretend we are not in a global
:45:58. > :46:08.competition. To pretend these contracts can just be banned is
:46:09. > :46:17.ridiculous. Global competithon is not fuelled by low skilled jobs
:46:18. > :46:22.What about Jim who we saw in the film who said the whole expdrience
:46:23. > :46:28.in total is putting him off of looking for work, he feels he may be
:46:29. > :46:34.better off in benefits. I do not think that is the reality of what
:46:35. > :46:39.the government would like to see. A life on benefits is good for nobody,
:46:40. > :46:45.not least the individual who thinks that way. Any work is better than a
:46:46. > :46:50.life of dependency and that is the whole thrust of government reform.
:46:51. > :47:02.That is sensible and we shotld not apologise for that. Not if ht
:47:03. > :47:05.disrupts family life. Teachhng assistants, people who work in our
:47:06. > :47:16.schools, they should have proper jobs with proper hours. Now, onto
:47:17. > :47:20.this week's Budget. Last wedk on the programme we were talking about a
:47:21. > :47:26.city deal for Cambridge which has got the go`ahead. There could be
:47:27. > :47:33.?500 million in investment over the next 20 years supporting more
:47:34. > :47:40.housing, jobs and transport. One MP wanted more money for potholes, the
:47:41. > :47:48.Chancellor promised 200 million across the country of which 16 comes
:47:49. > :47:54.to the east. There will be lore money for repairing flood ddfences.
:47:55. > :48:00.140 million across the country. In bingo, a victory for the Cardinal
:48:01. > :48:06.MP, he already persuaded thd Chancellor to cut and freezd fuel
:48:07. > :48:25.duty. On bingo he wanted thd tax to be cut from 20% to 15%. Bingo duty
:48:26. > :48:31.will be half to 10% to protdct jobs. We caught up with them for ` more
:48:32. > :48:37.considered verdict. This is again for working people, it is rdally
:48:38. > :48:46.good news, I am really excited. Fuel duty frozen again. I would say`macro
:48:47. > :48:52.visit the worker 's budget for working people. I would likd them to
:48:53. > :48:59.have at least it has been frozen. In tax terms fuel by the end of the
:49:00. > :49:04.year will be 20% cheaper th`n it would have been otherwise. Ht is
:49:05. > :49:13.great news for hard`pressed motorists as well. I literally
:49:14. > :49:19.listen to my local residents. They contact me by the day with lany
:49:20. > :49:24.hundreds of e`mails. I am a campaigning MP, I love to c`mpaign
:49:25. > :49:29.on things, I am here to represent my constituency. I got fuel letters
:49:30. > :49:35.almost every day and it is ly duty as an MP to work hard for mx
:49:36. > :49:41.constituents. You seem to phck issues that chime with the public.
:49:42. > :49:47.It is issues that the public right to me about or come to talk with me
:49:48. > :49:54.about in surgeries. It means the a lot of jobs and the new club not
:49:55. > :49:59.just in Harlow but across the country. I have to reflect what our
:50:00. > :50:05.residents are seeing. I would like to consider to focus on helping the
:50:06. > :50:10.lower paid. In next year's budget the government will raise the
:50:11. > :50:14.national insurance threshold. The government said today they would
:50:15. > :50:19.raise the threshold of incole tax. 25 million lower earners will be
:50:20. > :50:24.better off which is great ndws in tax terms. Still these people on
:50:25. > :50:30.lower earnings are being national insurance tax and I would lhke the
:50:31. > :50:37.government to raise that. Cttting bingo duty, freezing fuel dtty, he
:50:38. > :50:47.is stealing the thunder of labour, is he not? It is still a bedr and
:50:48. > :50:54.bingo budget. Most families are ?1600 per year worse off. What about
:50:55. > :51:01.that MP in touch with his constituency? The live the cost of
:51:02. > :51:08.living crisis in the economx. What about your energy costs going up
:51:09. > :51:13.?300 per year? People are rdally struggling out there and do did not
:51:14. > :51:22.seem to be any acknowledgemdnt of that. I am pleased with the pothole
:51:23. > :51:26.budget, we need that. I havd asked the council to top that up further
:51:27. > :51:35.and start tackling the port`l crisis. If there's something you
:51:36. > :51:47.should be focusing on and not the battle against UKIP? I agred. It is
:51:48. > :51:53.also the personal allowance. If you are a basic rate taxpayer you are
:51:54. > :51:57.being ?800 this year at the start of the parliament. That is one of the
:51:58. > :52:04.big answers to the question about the cost of living. A plane crash of
:52:05. > :52:11.an economy left by the Labotr Party and for us, after four years, to be
:52:12. > :52:20.able to see you are paying 20p tax is saving every year and th`t is
:52:21. > :52:29.hugely important for working people. We don't just talk the talk, we
:52:30. > :52:39.deliver. Income tax has been cut. 24 new taxes is not really helping
:52:40. > :52:48.people. Stick to income tax and the serious stuff. To rebrand the
:52:49. > :52:55.Conservatives as the workers party, that is dangerous or Labour, isn't
:52:56. > :53:05.it? You have those who make steady your types around working pdople
:53:06. > :53:11.that the drink beer and plax bingo. Why don't we talk about the issues
:53:12. > :53:24.that you are ?800 per year better off in income tax terms if xou are a
:53:25. > :53:28.20p taxpayer? Not if you take into account everything else, falilies
:53:29. > :53:44.are worse off. Like macro and here's a round`up in 60 seconds. A bad
:53:45. > :53:47.start to the week for UKIP. The Parliamentary candidate for Great
:53:48. > :53:55.Yarmouth will appear in court charged with electoral fraud. 5 0
:53:56. > :53:58.plus jobs will go in Corby. It is a difficult time for those workers and
:53:59. > :54:03.their families but there ard jobs being created locally and wd need to
:54:04. > :54:09.support people into those. The decision to close one prison. The
:54:10. > :54:14.Independent monitoring board said it had been a massive waste of
:54:15. > :54:20.taxpayers money. 10 million was spent doing the very things they
:54:21. > :54:26.said they could not afford to do. And the Lib Dem MP for Cambridge
:54:27. > :54:32.accused the Tories of stealhng their policy on raising the incomd tax
:54:33. > :54:38.threshold. He always brings the house together in his usual way
:54:39. > :54:43.What I am sure we can agree on is that it has been an excellent move
:54:44. > :54:51.by a Conservative Chancellor in a coalition government. Sharon Taylor,
:54:52. > :54:56.we saw a glimpse of the bear pit the Commons can be from time to time, do
:54:57. > :55:03.you relish the prospect of joining that atmosphere? I think it is
:55:04. > :55:08.something that puts lots of people off. I really believe in wh`t I am
:55:09. > :55:14.trying to do in Thames of t`king the values that I have had all ly life
:55:15. > :55:19.into politics. I think all that shouting and laughing at each other
:55:20. > :55:25.does put people off, the cltb atmosphere. We need to have more
:55:26. > :55:33.serious debates around the hssues. I do not mind a bit of banter but it
:55:34. > :55:41.does get beyond a joke. Is he right to say it was the Lib Dem policy
:55:42. > :55:46.stolen by the Conservatives? We can all celebrate it. I would only hope
:55:47. > :55:52.the Labour Party in parliamdnt would give us credit for these reductions
:55:53. > :55:59.in income tax. What about the heckling, do you wince or enjoy yet?
:56:00. > :56:04.I think the women, the female candidates who get elected, many of
:56:05. > :56:09.them are friends of mine, they do not complain. It is not quite as bad
:56:10. > :56:15.as it works. If you have solething to say you stand up and spe`k out
:56:16. > :56:17.and people will respond. With more women there it might be a bdtter
:56:18. > :56:23.place. Thank you, you can decision, she will weigh up the
:56:24. > :56:39.The big news is the popular server is struggling to control all of the
:56:40. > :56:44.people who want to find out where they fit in the political spectrum.
:56:45. > :56:49.It hasn't quite crashed but it is queueing up those people. Who would
:56:50. > :56:59.have thought the Sunday Politics had so many viewers? It has never
:57:00. > :57:01.happened on the X factor. This morning's papers don't make
:57:02. > :57:04.comfortable reading for Labour with two separate polls showing the
:57:05. > :57:07.party's lead over the Tories is down to just one point. And there's been
:57:08. > :57:11.plenty of criticism of Ed Miliband's response to the Budget. Let's take a
:57:12. > :57:14.look. You know you are in trouble when even the Education Secretary
:57:15. > :57:26.calls you and out of touch bunch of elitist. Where is he? He is hiding!
:57:27. > :57:33.I think he has been consigned to the naughty step by the Prime Minister.
:57:34. > :57:38.The naughty step! And we're joined now by shadow chief secretary to the
:57:39. > :57:42.Treasury, Chris Leslie. There was a widely criticised response by Ed
:57:43. > :57:48.Balls to the Autumn Statement, now a widely criticised response by Ed
:57:49. > :57:54.Miliband to the Budget. Does this show you are struggling at the
:57:55. > :58:00.moment? Of course Ed Balls and Ed Miliband don't want to hear the fact
:58:01. > :58:04.that in reality, for most people, life is getting harder and there is
:58:05. > :58:13.the cost of living crisis. Did we get any mention of that in the
:58:14. > :58:17.Budget? Of course we didn't. We were waiting for action on the cost of
:58:18. > :58:22.living and it wasn't forthcoming. Ed Miliband came up with the tactic of
:58:23. > :58:27.responding to the Budget without mentioning anything that was in it.
:58:28. > :58:31.He mentioned the fact the personal tax allowance was a bit of a
:58:32. > :58:38.giveaway but he takes more with the other hand. He is in favour of that,
:58:39. > :58:41.right? Anything we can get but we need a lot more. Let
:58:42. > :58:49.right? Anything we can get but we something else he mentioned, the
:58:50. > :58:52.fact the national debt has risen by a third and George Osborne and David
:58:53. > :58:57.Cameron... They knew that before the Budget. The borrowing figures were
:58:58. > :59:02.announced and Ed Miliband made reference to those. There is not a
:59:03. > :59:08.lot of happiness on Labour backbenchers about this, is there?
:59:09. > :59:14.And indeed not a lot of happiness in the shadow cabinet. There is concern
:59:15. > :59:17.that Ed Miliband is on a journey to remodel world capitalism whilst
:59:18. > :59:21.George Osborne is firing some love bombs at Middle England by talking
:59:22. > :59:25.about freeing up the pensions market and there is real nerves that what
:59:26. > :59:31.Ed Miliband is saying is not going to be in tune with those middle
:59:32. > :59:37.income earners that the Labour Party has got to attract if they are going
:59:38. > :59:43.to win the general election. When Rachel Reeves used the medium of
:59:44. > :59:46.Radio 4 to announce you were broadly in favour of the pension reforms
:59:47. > :59:51.announced by the Chancellor on Friday night, was that a result of a
:59:52. > :00:05.decision taken by the shadow cabinet? Is With annuities, they are
:00:06. > :00:11.a very old-fashioned product. There are some serious questions which
:00:12. > :00:16.need to be addressed. Was that the result of a Shadow Cabinet
:00:17. > :00:20.decision? We have not had a Shadow Cabinet since the budget. We all
:00:21. > :00:25.want to make sure that we understand the point about flexibility. No one
:00:26. > :00:30.is arguing with that. There are some serious concerns. Let me give you a
:00:31. > :00:34.couple of examples. This is something the Chancellor has done,
:00:35. > :00:38.he claims, for reasons of freedom and flexibility. Is it a coincidence
:00:39. > :00:46.he is grabbing quite a lot of tax from pensioners early on to plug a
:00:47. > :00:48.hole which is necessary because the deficit has not gone down? Forgive
:00:49. > :00:55.me for being slightly cynical about motives. For or against it? We need
:00:56. > :00:59.to have safeguards for protection of pensioners. What will it do for the
:01:00. > :01:07.annuity market if most people still want to have a steadying come for a
:01:08. > :01:13.third of their lives? -- steady income. What does Labour have to do
:01:14. > :01:20.to get it show back on the road The question is, how do people feel How
:01:21. > :01:24.many people will still not be feeling better by the next election?
:01:25. > :01:28.Wages may be rising slightly but not for a large and significant number
:01:29. > :01:33.of people. They were just looking at the YouGov poll. If you look at the
:01:34. > :01:38.middle to low earners, they are overwhelmingly pro-labour. Can
:01:39. > :01:42.Labour get those people out to vote? They are really hurting. There are
:01:43. > :01:45.plenty of them. The question is whether people are optimistic
:01:46. > :01:50.because they see figures as if they look as if they are on the up or
:01:51. > :01:56.whether they vote according to how they feel, which will still be very
:01:57. > :02:00.far behind. Cost of living has been a major mantra from Labour. That's
:02:01. > :02:05.that this chart shows how things are beginning to change. What this shows
:02:06. > :02:11.is that, sometime this year, after a long time at which average earnings
:02:12. > :02:14.trailed inflation, they now overtake it in the run-up to the election and
:02:15. > :02:23.they stay there for the forecast period. What do you now do if your
:02:24. > :02:28.cost of living mantra is running out of steam? I am not sure that, for
:02:29. > :02:31.most people, they will recognise the sense that suddenly things will be
:02:32. > :02:38.getting better. Particularly the younger generation are really
:02:39. > :02:44.feeling quite down about the pressures they are facing to make
:02:45. > :02:48.ends meet. You can see the lines are exaggerated because the Y axis on
:02:49. > :02:53.the side starts quite high up. It does not start at zero. The other
:02:54. > :02:58.statistic from the OBR is that we will not be getting back to the
:02:59. > :03:06.point where wages are exceeding prices from the pre-banking crisis
:03:07. > :03:08.period until late 2017. There are some really serious pressures that
:03:09. > :03:14.people are under. What they wanted was a budget that would address
:03:15. > :03:20.concerns and, for the vast majority of people, they will have heard the
:03:21. > :03:27.statement by George Osborne and think, how is it really help them
:03:28. > :03:31.now? It did not address it. It is clear that by 2015, average living
:03:32. > :03:37.standards will probably not have returned to where they were in
:03:38. > :03:40.2010. Average wages will not have done that. On the other hand, the
:03:41. > :03:46.chart shows the sense of direction is moving in the right way. Which
:03:47. > :03:51.one matters more with the electorate? I suspect it is sense of
:03:52. > :03:55.direction. People sense of prosperity does not need to be
:03:56. > :04:01.buoyant. It has to be something worth preserving. We have to fear
:04:02. > :04:06.the all turn. That is what intrigued me this week. People make too much
:04:07. > :04:09.of a fuss about the Parliamentary response by Ed Miliband. People will
:04:10. > :04:15.forgive a bad day at the dispatch box. What they will not forgive is
:04:16. > :04:21.the absence of a macro economic mess. Labour have a very powerful
:04:22. > :04:26.message on living standards and lots of popular, targeted interventions
:04:27. > :04:31.like the energy price freeze. You can imagine they will be
:04:32. > :04:41.sufficiently nervous about that next year. If living standards are not
:04:42. > :04:46.back to where they were, Labour can say, are you better off now than
:04:47. > :04:57.when you were four years ago? The reason why break and -- wallowed
:04:58. > :05:09.waken one that is because Jimmy Carter mucked it up -- Ronald
:05:10. > :05:14.Reagan. Labour have to say, vote for us and you will get 2 million homes.
:05:15. > :05:17.At the moment, the offer is very modest. You need to find the money
:05:18. > :05:21.to do that. People need to understand that housing is at the
:05:22. > :05:26.very heart of the economy, as well as young people and their
:05:27. > :05:32.aspirations. At the moment, Labour 's offer is not spectacular in. If
:05:33. > :05:37.the focus group shows the cost of living crisis have no longer has the
:05:38. > :05:40.attraction it did, what line do you move onto? Yellow McCoy must remind
:05:41. > :05:47.people of the wasted years and the cost of living pressures they have
:05:48. > :05:55.been under. -- we must remind people. We want a recovery which has
:05:56. > :06:02.low growth, low wage. A race to the bottom. They want a recovery that is
:06:03. > :06:07.felt by everyone, shared and felt by all. Now, here's an idea to twist
:06:08. > :06:10.your melon. Mark Berry, better known as Bez, it says here he's a member
:06:11. > :06:13.of something called The Happy Mondays, wants to stand for
:06:14. > :06:20.parliament. He's best known for being in a band, and not doing very
:06:21. > :06:36.much, so he might fit in. Here he is in action.
:06:37. > :06:49.And Bez joins us from our Salford studio. Good to see you. Is this a
:06:50. > :07:01.genuine candidacy or are you twisting my melon? Amazing how time
:07:02. > :07:07.flies when you're having fun! You having fun doing this candidacy I
:07:08. > :07:12.am doing the job of the politicians and standing up for the people and
:07:13. > :07:17.bringing attention to the horror of fracking, which is a totally unsafe
:07:18. > :07:21.technology. There is no one in mainstream politics who is
:07:22. > :07:28.discussing or saying anything about it. It is an unsafe technology and
:07:29. > :07:36.it has been proven in America. You see the process in America and the
:07:37. > :07:41.people out on the streets. The whole atmosphere has been made toxic.
:07:42. > :07:47.These people are allowing it to happen in the name of profit. This
:07:48. > :07:52.has been a Labour seat you are fighting in Salford since 1945. It
:07:53. > :07:58.is a tough mountain. Supposing you were to win, could you ever see
:07:59. > :08:04.yourself entering a coalition? With a bit of luck I may be able to shame
:08:05. > :08:07.Labour politicians to do the job properly and stand up for the rights
:08:08. > :08:13.of people. They are not and I am having to do that job. All I am
:08:14. > :08:17.doing is causing debate and bringing to attention the horror that is
:08:18. > :08:21.hanging on our doorsteps. It is not only fracking but GM modified foods
:08:22. > :08:30.that they want to bring into this country as well. Owen Paterson is
:08:31. > :08:36.one of the main lobbyists. Lobbying is legalised bribery, by the way. It
:08:37. > :08:41.is run by the bankers. Basically, we have to stop these monsters from
:08:42. > :08:46.getting into our country and turning our land into a toxic waste. That is
:08:47. > :08:52.what I am trying to say. You are raising the debate, as you are doing
:08:53. > :08:56.with us here. We do not really need fracking. You have done that and you
:08:57. > :09:02.have talked about other things as well. In terms of a new integrity,
:09:03. > :09:08.if you were to become an MP, would you claim expenses? If I ever do get
:09:09. > :09:09.in charge, I would completely enter the banking
:09:10. > :09:15.in charge, I would completely enter be expensive, but they would be like
:09:16. > :09:19.bus passes and train passes. You behave like the people and you are
:09:20. > :09:24.in touch with the people, you move with the people and do understand
:09:25. > :09:28.what the people want. You do not live in acre Kuhn of your own making
:09:29. > :09:36.of luxury, wealth and total disregard of everyone else. -- a
:09:37. > :09:39.cocoon. If you did get into the Palace of Westminster and had to
:09:40. > :09:45.mingle with all these people, who would you rather have in night out
:09:46. > :09:54.with - Mr Cameron, Mr Miller band or Mr Clegg? I would be willing to
:09:55. > :10:03.discuss politics with anybody. I would make them realise what they
:10:04. > :10:09.are doing. I am glad too have a debate and with anyone. The people
:10:10. > :10:15.of Salford, quite a lot people people behind me. I have been
:10:16. > :10:24.speaking to Salford councillors They are going to lend me their
:10:25. > :10:29.support. The people of Salford, and not to forget the people of Eccles,
:10:30. > :10:34.sending you much. We must stop this horror. There is a monster on our
:10:35. > :10:40.doorstep and we must stop it, people. Do not forget to take your
:10:41. > :10:48.maracas on campaign trail. Would you like a pair to shake yourself? You
:10:49. > :10:54.shake your maracas against fracking! Thanks, Bez, goodbye. Thank you for
:10:55. > :11:01.giving me a little platform to express my views. Now if there's one
:11:02. > :11:03.thing that gets us hot under the collar here at the Sunday Politics
:11:04. > :11:07.it's European elections. The only thing we like more than the
:11:08. > :11:11.elections themselves is a TV debate about them. And we're in luck! Take
:11:12. > :11:15.a look at this. Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome leader of
:11:16. > :11:22.the Liberal Democrats and Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg. Gives
:11:23. > :11:30.the most fantastic welcome to Nigel Farage. I would challenge Nigel
:11:31. > :11:37.Farage to a public, open debate about whether she we should be out
:11:38. > :11:47.all in of the European Union. I will do it for Nick Clegg. Since 200 ,
:11:48. > :11:53.all in of the European Union. I will have taken part in 45% of votes in
:11:54. > :12:00.the European Parliament. Nigel Farage has not tabled a single
:12:01. > :12:05.amendment since July 2009. Mr Clegg has only taken part in 22% of votes
:12:06. > :12:21.in the House of commons. You can watch the debate at 7pm on the nd
:12:22. > :12:24.of April over on BBC Two. And for a chance to be part of the studio
:12:25. > :12:27.audience on the night and put your question to the two party leaders,
:12:28. > :12:29.e-mail the question you'd like to ask to europedebate@bbc.co.uk or
:12:30. > :12:32.tweet it using the hashtag #europedebate. And Nick Clegg and
:12:33. > :12:37.Nigel Farage will be limbering up this week with their first debate on
:12:38. > :12:46.LBC radio on Wednesday. Who is going to come out the best? I suspect
:12:47. > :12:49.Nigel Farage. It is easy to portray Nick Clegg as morally compromised,
:12:50. > :12:55.who has not asserted himself in government. I do wonder about Nigel
:12:56. > :13:00.Farage, whether he is much better at delivering a popular line and
:13:01. > :13:04.responding to the second question of third question. Nick Clegg will win
:13:05. > :13:09.it hands over fist because he knows this stuff. He is right. The
:13:10. > :13:13.evidence that he can produce about what will happen if we pulled out of
:13:14. > :13:20.Europe will, I think, overwhelm Nigel Farage 's one-liners. They
:13:21. > :13:27.will both be winners because you will have the rare sight of the
:13:28. > :13:32.pro-European saying he likes the European Union. That is unlike
:13:33. > :13:38.Eurosceptics who tie themselves up in knots. 14 Nigel, one for Nick and
:13:39. > :13:50.one for both. There you go. Here is a mess, it is Janen Ganesh. That's
:13:51. > :13:54.all for today. The Daily Politics is on BBC Two at Lunchtime every day
:13:55. > :13:57.this week, I'll be back here next week with Energy Secretary Ed Davey.
:13:58. > :14:03.Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.