:00:38. > :00:44.Good morning. Welcome to The Sunday Politics. Just four days to go until
:00:45. > :00:49.election day, and be warned, coming to a street near you, a party leader
:00:50. > :00:52.on a charm offensive. They all want your vote in the European elections
:00:53. > :00:58.on Thursday, and in the local elections across England, too. Polls
:00:59. > :01:02.are all over the place this morning. Your vote could make a
:01:03. > :01:06.difference. This man is 11 points ahead in one poll, he has promised
:01:07. > :01:11.an earthquake on Thursday, but what then? Our Adam has braved the
:01:12. > :01:17.campaign trail, he has been asking all the big
:01:18. > :01:19.campaign trail, he has been asking Here in the East: We are in Luton
:01:20. > :01:23.discussing the European elections, where a panel of candidates will
:01:24. > :01:24.join me to answer questions from our audience here today ahead
:01:25. > :01:35.elections, and the 50th anniversary of the first elections to London's
:01:36. > :01:41.32 boroughs. I am in the studio, with those who think they have got
:01:42. > :01:47.all the big answers. Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. So, it
:01:48. > :01:52.is the European elections for everybody on Thursday, local
:01:53. > :01:55.elections for England and a bit of Northern Ireland as well. They are
:01:56. > :02:00.the last elections before the big one, the 2015 general election. Some
:02:01. > :02:04.say that these European and local elections will not be much of a
:02:05. > :02:10.pointer to how the big one goes. But that will not stop political
:02:11. > :02:15.commentators and party gurus from examining them closely. So, what is
:02:16. > :02:17.at stake? Thursday May the 22nd is local elections and European
:02:18. > :02:41.Parliament elections. These local results should be known
:02:42. > :02:46.by Friday. In the European elections, all 751 members of the
:02:47. > :02:52.European Parliament will be elected across Europe. 73 MEPs will be let
:02:53. > :02:57.it by people living in the UK. But the results will not be announced
:02:58. > :03:02.until Sunday night, after voting has closed throughout the 28 member
:03:03. > :03:05.states of the EU. Nick Watt, we are in a position where the polls this
:03:06. > :03:09.morning cannot tell us what the outcome is going to be on Thursday,
:03:10. > :03:14.and the general election is still wide open - we really are in
:03:15. > :03:18.uncharted territory? Also it is difficult to know where we are,
:03:19. > :03:22.because there is that ComRes poll which shows an 11 point lead amongst
:03:23. > :03:25.those certain to vote for UKIP, and another poll in the Sunday Times
:03:26. > :03:34.showing that it is a much more slender lead for UKIP. But we know
:03:35. > :03:38.that will they win? We do not know, but clearly they will unsettle the
:03:39. > :03:41.major parties. Fall or five months ago, we assumed that the UKIP
:03:42. > :03:47.success would create panic in the Conservative Party, but that has
:03:48. > :03:51.been factored into David Cameron's share price. The Conservative Party
:03:52. > :03:56.is remarkably relaxed at the moment, and I wonder whether this time next
:03:57. > :03:59.week, when we have the results, whether the two political leaders
:04:00. > :04:04.who will be under pressure will be Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Nick
:04:05. > :04:09.Clegg, because they could go down from 12 MEPs to maybe just three or
:04:10. > :04:12.four. And Ed Miliband, because, one year before a general election, he
:04:13. > :04:18.should be showing that he is a significant, potent electoral
:04:19. > :04:23.force. So, they should all be worried about UKIP, but whereas a
:04:24. > :04:26.couple of months ago, we would all have said David Cameron was the one
:04:27. > :04:32.who should be worried, now, we are saying it is Mr Miliband and Mr
:04:33. > :04:35.Clegg? And of the two, I think it is Ed Miliband who should be worried.
:04:36. > :04:43.The Lib Dems are an incredibly resilient party. He described his
:04:44. > :04:53.own party as cockroaches, and incredible resilience! I think the
:04:54. > :04:59.Lib Dems are ready to take this one, but I think Labour are really wobbly
:05:00. > :05:03.at the moment. What UKIP has done, to England, it means that England
:05:04. > :05:07.has caught up with Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, England
:05:08. > :05:13.now has a four party system, which makes it all the more uncertain what
:05:14. > :05:17.the outcome will be? Yes, but whether UKIP finish first or second,
:05:18. > :05:22.it will be the biggest insurgent event since the European elections
:05:23. > :05:28.began in 1979. People talk about the Greens in 1989, but I think they
:05:29. > :05:31.finished third. Were UKIP to win a national election or even finish
:05:32. > :05:35.runner-up, it would be truly historic. It is reflecting on
:05:36. > :05:42.something which is happening across Europe, pianist in Italy, Holland,
:05:43. > :05:47.France and in this country. -- populist parties. And it makes first
:05:48. > :05:52.past the post look absolutely ridiculous. You could be in a
:05:53. > :05:56.situation after the next general election where Labour do not get the
:05:57. > :05:59.largest percentage of the vote but they get the largest number of
:06:00. > :06:03.seats. First past the post works fairly if there are only two
:06:04. > :06:09.parties, but when there are four... We will talk more about that. Let's
:06:10. > :06:14.speak now to Suzanne Evans of UKIP. She is at Westminster. Now, UKIP
:06:15. > :06:18.claims that there is going to be an earthquake in British politics on
:06:19. > :06:24.Thursday. Suppose there is, what does UKIP then need to do to become
:06:25. > :06:28.a more grown-up, proper party? I think UKIP has very much become a
:06:29. > :06:34.grown-up, proper party. We have been around for 20 years. What we are
:06:35. > :06:38.going to be doing after the European elections, if we do cause this
:06:39. > :06:43.earthquake, and the polls are looking like we are going to, is we
:06:44. > :06:47.will be firmly looking towards 2015, getting our general election
:06:48. > :06:51.manifesto out, to keep those votes on board from the euro elections and
:06:52. > :06:53.putting forward common-sense policies which really will bring
:06:54. > :06:57.Britain back to the people. We want to be able to hold the balance of
:06:58. > :07:08.power come the general election. If we can do that then there will be a
:07:09. > :07:11.referendum. That will be our aim. You say you are a more grown-up
:07:12. > :07:16.party, but when you look at the stream of gaffes and controversies
:07:17. > :07:21.created by your candidates and members, I will not go into them
:07:22. > :07:25.this morning, at the very least, I would suggest you are needing a more
:07:26. > :07:29.robust system of selection? You could say the same for the other
:07:30. > :07:34.three parties, who have been around for a lot longer. They have got
:07:35. > :07:41.nothing like the embarrassments you had. I am afraid they had. Just this
:07:42. > :07:44.week, since Monday, we have had 17 Liberal Democrat, labour or
:07:45. > :07:48.Conservative councillors either arrested, charged or convicted on
:07:49. > :07:52.all manner of offences. In addition we have had 13 who have been
:07:53. > :07:56.involved in some kind of racist, sexist or homophobic incident. I am
:07:57. > :08:00.not saying I am proud of any of that. The whole of politics probably
:08:01. > :08:03.needs to be cleaned up, but I certainly do not think we are any
:08:04. > :08:09.worse than the other parties, who have much greater resources than we
:08:10. > :08:13.do. Those other parties are even putting people in power who they
:08:14. > :08:16.know have got criminal convictions or who have previously belonged to
:08:17. > :08:23.far right, fascist parties like the BNP. Can you continue to be a
:08:24. > :08:26.one-man band? The only time any other UKIP petition makes the
:08:27. > :08:33.headlines is when they say something loony or objectionable? We have a
:08:34. > :08:37.huge amount of talent in this party. We have fantastic spokespeople
:08:38. > :08:40.across the patch, the huge amount of expertise in the party. Inevitably
:08:41. > :08:47.the media focuses on Nigel Farage, who is a fantastic, charismatic
:08:48. > :08:51.leader. But believe me, there is a huge amount of talent. When we get
:08:52. > :08:57.our MEPs into power after the European elections, we will see many
:08:58. > :09:03.more of them I think on television and radio and in the newspapers. We
:09:04. > :09:10.are not a one-man band. Who runs your party? The party is run by
:09:11. > :09:14.Nigel Farage, our leader. But he spends all his time running between
:09:15. > :09:19.television studios and in and out of the pub! You would be amazed how
:09:20. > :09:24.much he does, and of course we have a National Executive Committee, like
:09:25. > :09:28.the other parties. So who runs it? The National Executive Committee, in
:09:29. > :09:33.conjunction with Nigel Farage, the MEPs, the spokespeople, it is a
:09:34. > :09:39.joint effort. Your Local Government Minister Stosur is, if you vote
:09:40. > :09:45.UKIP, you go on to pledge that your councillors will not toe the party
:09:46. > :09:52.line, how does that work? -- your local government manifesto says...
:09:53. > :09:56.On the main policies, they will toe the party line, because that is
:09:57. > :10:01.obviously what people will be voting for. It is no good putting forward a
:10:02. > :10:08.manifesto like the Lib Dems did on 2010 and going back on it. We have
:10:09. > :10:12.put forward a lot of positive -- a lot of policies at local government
:10:13. > :10:17.level, and those we will stick to. But when it comes to individual,
:10:18. > :10:21.local issues, say, a particular development or the closure of a
:10:22. > :10:25.school, whatever, UKIP then will vote what they think is in the best
:10:26. > :10:29.interests of the people in the borough, and not according to any
:10:30. > :10:35.party whip system. This plays out really well on the doorstep, I find.
:10:36. > :10:39.People do not want their politicians to be in the pockets of their
:10:40. > :10:43.party, putting party first, ahead of the people. You want people to vote
:10:44. > :10:47.to leave the European Union in a referendum - have you published a
:10:48. > :10:53.road map as to what would then happen? Yes, there will be a road
:10:54. > :10:58.map. The Lisbon Treaty for the first time gave us that exit opportunity.
:10:59. > :11:02.Have you published a road map? I am not the legal expert on this but
:11:03. > :11:06.there are ways in which you can come out of Europe fairly quickly. There
:11:07. > :11:11.is a longer you all as well. But have you published any of that
:11:12. > :11:16.detail? Not that I have read. But certainly there are ways to do it.
:11:17. > :11:20.We are the sixth strongest world economy, I think we are in a strong
:11:21. > :11:25.position having left the EU to be able to negotiate a very good trade
:11:26. > :11:32.deal with the European Union. It is what people voted for in 1975. What
:11:33. > :11:38.would be our exact status? It would be I think what people voted for
:11:39. > :11:42.back in 1975. An independent, sovereign country in a trade
:11:43. > :11:46.agreement, a very positive and valuable trade agreement with the
:11:47. > :11:50.European Union. I voted in that referendum, I remember it well, 1975
:11:51. > :11:58.involved the free movement of people 's... That is something which I do
:11:59. > :12:02.not think UKIP or the country wants. 70% of people now are deeply
:12:03. > :12:11.concerned about immigration. So it would not be 1975, then? Andrew, it
:12:12. > :12:14.sounds like you are complaining that we might have something which is
:12:15. > :12:21.better than 1975. I am just trying to find out what it is! That sounds
:12:22. > :12:24.like positive to me. We will negotiate a trade deal and all
:12:25. > :12:28.manner of issues, whatever is best for the British people. We want our
:12:29. > :12:33.sovereignty back, we want our country back. Would you be upset if
:12:34. > :12:38.a bunch of Rumanian men moved in next door to you? Where I live, I am
:12:39. > :12:43.surrounded by one and two-bedroom flats. If ten Rumanian men moved in
:12:44. > :12:48.next door to me, I would want to ask questions. That is very different
:12:49. > :12:57.from say a Robinho family moving in next door. I would think, are they
:12:58. > :13:01.being ripped off, are they up to no good or are they perhaps being
:13:02. > :13:05.trafficked by a gang master? So I think it would be of concern, and I
:13:06. > :13:08.do not think there is anything wrong with that, it is a humanitarian
:13:09. > :13:11.approach. That would be different from a family moving in who were
:13:12. > :13:16.learning to speak English, who wanted to contribute to the British
:13:17. > :13:18.economy. Maybe if your boss is watching, he will now have found out
:13:19. > :13:34.how to answer that question. Now, what is more glamorous, 24
:13:35. > :13:38.hours in the life of a counter-terrorism agent, or 12 hours
:13:39. > :13:46.in the life of Adam Fleming, on the campaign trail? I will let you make
:13:47. > :13:50.up your own mind. So, it is eight o'clock in the morning here in
:13:51. > :13:54.Westminster. Today's challenge is, how much campaigning for the local
:13:55. > :13:58.and European elections can we fit into 12 hours? See you back here at
:13:59. > :14:03.eight o'clock tonight. Wish me luck. With my cameraman and
:14:04. > :14:12.producer, we went to Thurrock in Essex first. I got a very, very warm
:14:13. > :14:22.welcome from Abe buoyant UKIP. They have never had this much attention.
:14:23. > :14:26.One candidate's misdemeanour ends up on the front page. But you have got
:14:27. > :14:30.Lib Dem candidates being convicted of racially aggravated assault, and
:14:31. > :14:34.that was not on the front pages of the newspapers. Houdini is fine but
:14:35. > :14:40.it must be applied evenly. Have you had to sack Thurrock UKIP members
:14:41. > :14:49.for dodgy tweets or anything? Oh, God, no. Next we head to meet a top
:14:50. > :14:52.Tory in a different area. We are heading to Eastbourne. But stuck in
:14:53. > :14:57.traffic. We are going to miss William Hague. We got there, just in
:14:58. > :15:03.time, to ask the really big questions. David Cameron went to
:15:04. > :15:08.Nando De Colo last week, where are you going to go for lunch? I do not
:15:09. > :15:14.even get time for lunch. I think something in the back of the car. We
:15:15. > :15:20.will go down the street and see what people have got to say. Even the
:15:21. > :15:21.Foreign Secretary has depressed the flesh at election time? Even the
:15:22. > :15:37.Foreign Secretary meets real people. The message William Hague impresses
:15:38. > :15:41.upon everyone he meets is that the Tories are the only party offering a
:15:42. > :15:50.referendum on our membership of the EU. He's off for lunch in the limo.
:15:51. > :15:58.I've got five minutes by the beach. This is the best thing about
:15:59. > :16:01.elections, lunch. Do you want one? And chips are weirdly relevant at
:16:02. > :16:04.our next stop - the Green Party battle bus which is parked in
:16:05. > :16:09.Ashford in Kent. What is special about this vehicle? It runs from
:16:10. > :16:20.chip fat oil so it is more friendly to the environment. But boss was
:16:21. > :16:25.boiling. The next stop is Gillingham to see Labour. Labour have just
:16:26. > :16:32.hired Barack Obama's election guru David Axelrod to help them craft
:16:33. > :16:40.their message. What does David Axelrod know about the people who
:16:41. > :16:47.live on the street? I know the local details but you handle those. Ed
:16:48. > :16:49.Miliband and his party have had to handle a few dodgy opinion polls
:16:50. > :16:53.lately, prompting some leadership speculation from one activist. Who
:16:54. > :17:06.is your favourite Labour politician? Ed Balls. Back in the car and we're
:17:07. > :17:11.flagging. Final stop, Southwark in south London. We are in the right
:17:12. > :17:18.place, this is Simon Hughes' Lib Dem taxi. The Lib Dems are campaigning
:17:19. > :17:25.as the party of in. But are they in trouble? Your party president said
:17:26. > :17:31.the party would be wiped out and lose its MEPs. Is that helpful? If
:17:32. > :17:36.he did say that, then no, that's not terribly helpful. And let's not
:17:37. > :17:42.forget, every London council is having elections too. I have 40
:17:43. > :17:47.minutes to get back to the office in Westminster, which calls for
:17:48. > :17:56.something drastic, like this. After 212 miles, but will be make it home
:17:57. > :18:09.for eight? We have made it, aided, 12 hours of pure politics. Happy
:18:10. > :18:15.elections, everyone. Adam Fleming impersonating Jack
:18:16. > :18:19.Bauer! Natalie Bennett is in our studio, welcome back. The Greens
:18:20. > :18:28.used to be the upcoming party in Britain, now it is UKIP. What went
:18:29. > :18:36.wrong? We are in a very good place, looking towards travelling our MEPs
:18:37. > :18:40.and we could be the fourth largest group in Parliament after these
:18:41. > :18:43.elections. More and more people are recognising we are the only party
:18:44. > :18:50.calling for real change, the only party saying we have two stop making
:18:51. > :18:57.poor, disadvantaged young people over the mistakes bankers. You have
:18:58. > :19:03.made a strong pro-environment stands synonymous with the politics of the
:19:04. > :19:08.left, why have you done that? Why should an equal minded Conservative
:19:09. > :19:15.vote for you? I think one of the reasons why many Conservatives, I
:19:16. > :19:18.met them in Chester where they are stopping coalbed methane
:19:19. > :19:24.exploration, lots of Conservatives are looking to vote for us beyond
:19:25. > :19:28.issues like fracking and the Green belt, and many of them are concerned
:19:29. > :19:33.about the fact we haven't reformed the banks. This morning we had the
:19:34. > :19:40.Bank of England chief coming out and saying we have a huge house price
:19:41. > :19:47.bubble and people recognise that many of the parties offering the
:19:48. > :19:56.same are not working. And yet the polls show that the hardline
:19:57. > :20:00.greenery is not winning. We are looking to travel our number of MEPs
:20:01. > :20:06.and we have people recognising that we have to change the way our
:20:07. > :20:09.economic 's, politics and society works so that everyone has
:20:10. > :20:16.sufficient resources within the limits of the one planet because one
:20:17. > :20:22.planet is all we have got. You want all electricity to be generated by
:20:23. > :20:27.renewables, is that right? So where would the electricity come from on
:20:28. > :20:34.days when the wind is not blowing? Most of the electricity is there. It
:20:35. > :20:38.is mature. We need to be hooked into a European wide grid, we need a
:20:39. > :20:44.smart grid that will allow for demand to be adjusted according to
:20:45. > :20:49.supply. So we would take French nuclear power, would we? We need to
:20:50. > :20:59.work with a partnership across Europe. We are being left behind and
:21:00. > :21:03.we are losing opportunities. 50% of German renewable electricity is
:21:04. > :21:14.owned by communities and it stays within communities, rather than the
:21:15. > :21:24.big six energy companies. So you have still got to take the French
:21:25. > :21:31.nuclear power. What we need to do... Nuclear is a dead technology,
:21:32. > :21:34.going down in the developed world. At the moment the Government
:21:35. > :21:40.proposes the most expensive proposal for Britain and yet the last two
:21:41. > :21:45.plans took 17 years to bring online, way too slow for what we need now.
:21:46. > :21:49.We know what the Green council would be like if you were to win more
:21:50. > :21:55.seats on Thursday because you run Brighton. Your own Green MP joined
:21:56. > :22:01.strikers against the council, the local Greens are at each other's
:22:02. > :22:06.throats, a council ridden with factionalism, attempts to raise
:22:07. > :22:10.council tax to 5%, attempted coups against the local Green leader by
:22:11. > :22:16.other Greens and you have had to bring in mediators. If you look at
:22:17. > :22:22.the life of people in Brighton and Hove, it has seen its visitor
:22:23. > :22:28.numbers go up by 50,000, it has become the top seaside resort in
:22:29. > :22:33.Britain, we have seen GCSE results going up significantly. These are
:22:34. > :22:38.the things affecting people's lives in Brighton and Hove. 60% of
:22:39. > :22:43.Brighton and Hove people think life is better and the Greens. We have a
:22:44. > :22:48.debate to be had from next is better and the Greens. We have a
:22:49. > :22:49.election and perhaps we can have that debate next
:22:50. > :22:55.election and perhaps we can have up Brighton as the way the city
:22:56. > :22:59.should be run? We have made huge progress, we have found money to be
:23:00. > :23:08.brought into the city to improve Green spaces. I was on the big ride
:23:09. > :23:13.in London yesterday, and we need to change our roads so they worked the
:23:14. > :23:21.people as well as cars. Which side of the picket line were you on in
:23:22. > :23:26.Brighton? With Caroline Lucas? I was in London, travelling around as I do
:23:27. > :23:34.most days. From Penzance to Newcastle and many areas in between.
:23:35. > :24:08.Probably a good move. Thank you. I'm joined now by the Conservative MP,
:24:09. > :24:18.the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes and Sajid Javid. We want to see a
:24:19. > :24:23.European Union resolutely focused on the single market, free trade, and
:24:24. > :24:27.only we can bring about that change. Labour and Lib Dems are happy with
:24:28. > :24:34.the status quo, in fact they would like more integration, and a UKIP
:24:35. > :24:39.party can not deliver the change. Hilary Benn, at this stage positions
:24:40. > :24:43.usually romp home in European elections and no party has gone on
:24:44. > :24:50.to form a government without winning the European elections first. Now it
:24:51. > :24:56.suggests you could become second, you haven't handled UKIP very well
:24:57. > :25:00.either. There is a lot of alienation from politics around, globalisation
:25:01. > :25:06.has left some behind and people are concerned about that but UKIP will
:25:07. > :25:10.not provide the answer. Nigel Farage only talks about Europe. We are to
:25:11. > :25:15.hear it would not be in the interests of British people to come
:25:16. > :25:19.out of Europe. We do want a season change in Europe, for example we
:25:20. > :25:25.want longer periods when new member states come in. We don't think child
:25:26. > :25:30.tax credits should be paid to children not living in the UK, but
:25:31. > :25:37.Nigel Farage is also proposing to charge us when we see the GP, to
:25:38. > :25:42.halve maternity pay, and he wants a flat tax. UKIP is not the answer to
:25:43. > :25:46.the problems we face and we will continue to campaign as we have done
:25:47. > :25:56.to show that we are putting forward policies on energy prices, and in
:25:57. > :26:02.the end that is what people will look for. Simon Hughes, you will be
:26:03. > :26:10.lucky to come forth. The voters decide these things. Really? I never
:26:11. > :26:13.knew that. My response to the UKIP question is that they get support
:26:14. > :26:19.because they have never been in power, they are never likely. A bit
:26:20. > :26:29.like the way you used to never get into power. I accept that, but now
:26:30. > :26:33.we are in government. The reality is that laws made in Brussels, we make
:26:34. > :26:39.together by agreement, and it is the case from the Commons figures that
:26:40. > :26:49.only seven out of 100 laws are made in Brussels. Actually they have been
:26:50. > :26:53.shown not to be the only ones. 14 out of 100. If we were to come out
:26:54. > :27:03.of Europe, we would seriously disadvantage our economics and the
:27:04. > :27:08.jobs... 3 million jobs depend on the European Union. If the Conservatives
:27:09. > :27:13.comes third or even a poor second, it will show that people don't
:27:14. > :27:18.really trust your promise about European referendum. They have been
:27:19. > :27:23.there before, they don't trust you. What we have already shown, despite
:27:24. > :27:27.being in coalition with Liberal Democrats, we have shown progress on
:27:28. > :27:31.Europe, we have vetoed a European treaty when people said we
:27:32. > :27:35.wouldn't, we have cut the European budget which is something Liberal
:27:36. > :27:40.Democrats and Labour MEPs voted against, we cut it by ?8 billion.
:27:41. > :27:50.But overall we are still paying more. We have still cut it. We have
:27:51. > :27:56.taken Britain out of the bailout fund that Labour signed us up to. We
:27:57. > :28:01.are now going to take that same energy to Europe and renegotiate our
:28:02. > :28:10.relationship and let the British people decide in a referendum. Why
:28:11. > :28:13.has Ed Miliband become such a liability for your party? Even your
:28:14. > :28:19.own MPs are speaking out against him. If you look at the polls, we
:28:20. > :28:25.have been in the lead almost consistently. The voters will
:28:26. > :28:30.decide. Ed Miliband is a decent man, but what really marks him out is
:28:31. > :28:38.that he is thinking about the problems the country faces. Simon
:28:39. > :28:47.and Sajid both support the bedroom tax, we will scrap it. Ed Miliband
:28:48. > :28:56.said the energy market doesn't work for consumers, we will freeze energy
:28:57. > :29:05.prices while we change the system. So why are his ratings even lower
:29:06. > :29:09.than Nick Clegg's? They will be voted for next year in the general
:29:10. > :29:14.election, and if I were David Cameron I would ask myself this
:29:15. > :29:18.question - the economy is recovering, why is it that David
:29:19. > :29:23.Cameron and the Conservatives have been behind in the polls? Because in
:29:24. > :29:27.the end the big choice in British politics is between the two parties
:29:28. > :29:33.that say, if we sought the deficit everything is fine, and Labour who
:29:34. > :29:38.say that there are things about this country, the insecurity that has
:29:39. > :29:44.given rise for support for UKIP, and we are the ones talking about doing
:29:45. > :29:48.something about zero hours contracts. The more your leader
:29:49. > :29:58.bangs on about Europe, the worse your poll ratings get. He is out of
:29:59. > :30:03.the kilter with British people. It may not be a majority of people who
:30:04. > :30:08.think that we ought to stay in the European Union, but when you speak
:30:09. > :30:12.to people about it, people understand that we are better in
:30:13. > :30:16.them out. In the elections on Thursday, that is not about who runs
:30:17. > :30:19.Britain, that is for next year. In terms of the local councils, we have
:30:20. > :30:25.battles on the ground, like in my community, where we are trying to
:30:26. > :30:29.take it back from the Labour Party. Affordable housing has just not been
:30:30. > :30:35.delivered. We have delivered that in office and we had admitted to that.
:30:36. > :30:41.-- we are committed to that. Labour have actually demolished homes. So,
:30:42. > :30:46.people want more affordable homes. One issue which is behind people's
:30:47. > :30:50.antipathy towards immigrants is that they cannot get the affordable
:30:51. > :30:54.housing they need. We as a government have delivered more
:30:55. > :30:57.affordable housing in this Parliament -170,000 new properties
:30:58. > :31:09.earning and more, over the next three years. That does not work out
:31:10. > :31:15.that very many per year. Overall housing is a lot less than it was in
:31:16. > :31:19.2006. Let me tell you, under the Labour government, we lost nearly
:31:20. > :31:25.half a million affordable homes. Fewer built than under Mrs Thatcher
:31:26. > :31:30.or under the coalition. What is your last ditch message to the millions
:31:31. > :31:38.of Tory voters thinking of voting UKIP on Thursday? First, what I
:31:39. > :31:41.would say is, Ed Miliband also said that we should not tackle the
:31:42. > :31:45.deficit, it was not a priority. As a result of our resolute focus, we now
:31:46. > :31:50.have the fastest growing economy in the developed world, and more people
:31:51. > :31:53.employed than ever before. I am sure you will have more chance to say
:31:54. > :31:58.that at the general election, what is the answer to my question? We
:31:59. > :32:02.need a Europe which is focused on free trade and the single market.
:32:03. > :32:07.Labour and Lib Dems are happy with the status quo, we are not. We are
:32:08. > :32:14.the only party which can bring about change, UKIP cannot bring about any
:32:15. > :32:20.change. Hilary Benn, why not have a referendum on Europe? If you think
:32:21. > :32:24.like Nigel Farage that you should get out of Europe, I do not agree
:32:25. > :32:29.with him, because Britain's future lies in Europe. My message simply
:32:30. > :32:34.would be, vote for a party which wants to tackle insecurity in the
:32:35. > :32:38.workplace, to give more security to the 9 million people who are now
:32:39. > :32:44.privately renting, build more homes. What Simon has just said about the
:32:45. > :32:46.coalition's housing record, it has been appalling, the lowest level
:32:47. > :32:52.since Stanley Baldwin was Prime Minister. With Labour, you have got
:32:53. > :32:55.a party which will freeze energy prices, more childcare, policies
:32:56. > :33:01.which directly address the problems which people face. I think the
:33:02. > :33:04.public will realise that. UKIP offers absolutely nothing at all for
:33:05. > :33:10.the future of the country. You used to be in favour of a referendum? We
:33:11. > :33:13.are in favour, we voted for one, we have legislated for one. The next
:33:14. > :33:17.time there is a change between Britain and Europe, in the
:33:18. > :33:24.relationship, there will be a referendum. We have supported that.
:33:25. > :33:31.We voted for it. You would obviously want to vote yes in any referendum.
:33:32. > :33:37.We would. But if you had one now, it would be for coming out or staying
:33:38. > :33:39.in, and you are going to wait until there is another step son shall
:33:40. > :33:49.transfer of powers to Brussels, and then say to people, either vote for
:33:50. > :33:55.this substantial transfer or vote to leave! Of course they will vote to
:33:56. > :34:00.leave! Yes, we are not natural partners with the Conservatives, but
:34:01. > :34:04.we do not want to be distracted at the moment by a referendum in the
:34:05. > :34:11.future in relation to Europe. Because what we have done is built
:34:12. > :34:14.our own economy back. That has been the priority. We do not want
:34:15. > :34:19.artificial priorities. The Tories want an artificial date plucked out
:34:20. > :34:24.of the air for their own advantage. We say, let's get on with being
:34:25. > :34:27.positive about being in Europe, and many people on the doorstep
:34:28. > :34:32.absolutely understand that. Yesterday, the Energy Minister said
:34:33. > :34:35.that he thought the party would be willing to campaign for a British
:34:36. > :34:41.withdrawal from the EU if there was not a successful negotiation, a
:34:42. > :34:51.successful repatriation, do you agree with that? First of all, I am
:34:52. > :34:57.very optimistic... I got that I am going into these negotiations with
:34:58. > :35:03.confidence but Michael Fallon is one of your ministerial colleagues, he
:35:04. > :35:07.said that if we cannot get a deal on substantial repatriation, then the
:35:08. > :35:12.party should be willing to campaign for a British withdrawal - do you
:35:13. > :35:15.agree? My view is that I am confident we will get a deal, and
:35:16. > :35:20.then we will put it to the British people. But you will have to take a
:35:21. > :35:23.line. If you do not get substantial repatriations, will you side with
:35:24. > :35:29.Michael Fallon all with the Prime Minister, who seems to want to stay
:35:30. > :35:33.in regardless? I may only have been in politics for four years, but I am
:35:34. > :35:37.not going to ask that kind of hypothetical question. Every
:35:38. > :35:41.question I ask is hypothetical, that is the fascination of the programme!
:35:42. > :35:46.I go into these negotiations with complete confidence. If you look at
:35:47. > :35:53.our track record, it suggests we will be successful. Hilary Benn,
:35:54. > :35:59.what is the difference between your attitude and that of the Lib Dems
:36:00. > :36:02.towards a referendum? We have been very clear that if it is proposed at
:36:03. > :36:07.sometime in the future, further powers would be transferred, then,
:36:08. > :36:13.we would put that to the British people in a referendum. That is the
:36:14. > :36:18.Lib Dem position. This is our position, which I am planing to you.
:36:19. > :36:21.It would be an in-out referendum. We would only agree to a transfer of
:36:22. > :36:27.powers if we thought that it was in the interest of Britain. But we
:36:28. > :36:33.believe that Britain's place remains and should remain in Europe, for
:36:34. > :36:40.economic reasons. But we also want to see some changes in our
:36:41. > :36:43.relationship with Europe, and electing Labour MEPs on Thursday
:36:44. > :36:50.will be a way of boosting that argument. In what way is everything
:36:51. > :36:56.you have just said not entirely sell my must with the Lib Dem position? I
:36:57. > :37:02.am not worried about that. -- entirely synonymous. It is the
:37:03. > :37:05.dividing line between us and UKIP, because they somehow believe that
:37:06. > :37:09.Britain leaving the European Union would be good for our economy. Truth
:37:10. > :37:15.is, it would be really bad, because so many jobs depend on being part of
:37:16. > :37:27.a large market in an increasingly globalised world. I have got one
:37:28. > :37:31.more question for you on the locals. We seem to have lost our connection
:37:32. > :37:35.with Leeds. What is the single most important reason that people should
:37:36. > :37:39.vote for you in the local election? Because taxpayers' money is just
:37:40. > :37:43.that, it does not belong to the politicians, and we can do a lot
:37:44. > :37:46.more and get more for less with taxpayers money. If you look at
:37:47. > :37:50.Conservative councils up and down the country, most of them have not
:37:51. > :37:55.been raising council tax, they have been getting more for less, and that
:37:56. > :37:58.is what people deserve. We will produce the maximum amount possible
:37:59. > :38:02.of affordable housing to meet the housing needs of Britain, instead of
:38:03. > :38:09.the richest minority having flats and houses that nobody can afford.
:38:10. > :38:16.We seem to have lost Hilary Benn. I can answer for him. I will do it -
:38:17. > :38:20.he would certainly say, vote Labour. You are watching The Sunday
:38:21. > :38:23.Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who now leave us for
:38:24. > :38:34.Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up in Scotland, who now leave us for
:38:35. > :38:37.Hello and welcome to the University of Bedfordshire's Luton campus,
:38:38. > :38:40.where these European candidates will answer questions from our audience
:38:41. > :38:52.about the EU and its influence on our lives. For Labour, we have
:38:53. > :38:54.Richard Howitt, a long`standing MEP. For the UK Independence Party,
:38:55. > :38:57.Patrick O'Flynn, who's the former political editor of the Daily
:38:58. > :39:00.Express. For the Conservatives, MEP Vicky Ford. She is the spokesman on
:39:01. > :39:06.the European Industry and Research Committee. The Green Party candidate
:39:07. > :39:12.is Dr Rupert Read, a lecturer at the University of East Anglia. And for
:39:13. > :39:14.the Lib Dems, MEP Andrew Duff, a committed federalist and respected
:39:15. > :39:17.author of many books and pamphlets on the EU. All five of them the
:39:18. > :39:29.leading candidates for their parties. Ladies and gentlemen, our
:39:30. > :39:43.panel. APPLAUSE
:39:44. > :39:46.. Our first question is from John
:39:47. > :39:49.Scully. If we were to leave Europe, what
:39:50. > :39:54.will remain of our credibility with regard to future commerce?
:39:55. > :39:59.First of all I see myself as an English and British candidate in
:40:00. > :40:02.this election and I believe our relationship with Europe must change
:40:03. > :40:07.but it must be a change that suits British businesses and local
:40:08. > :40:11.businesses and British jobs. A lot of people say to me that we voted to
:40:12. > :40:15.go into a common market but not a federal Europe, we want to see
:40:16. > :40:19.powers come back to Britain, we want a negotiation that works for
:40:20. > :40:24.business as well. This is a complex negotiation, but it is change that
:40:25. > :40:30.we need and then we want to put that to you in a referendum and give you
:40:31. > :40:33.a choice, so you will then see the decision on in and out but after we
:40:34. > :40:42.have delivered AB negotiation. Richard Howitt. She did not answer
:40:43. > :40:45.the question, there are 336,000 jobs and the east of England dependent
:40:46. > :40:52.upon our membership of the European Union, the Bex `` the business
:40:53. > :40:55.organisation of Britain, the CBI, says that families are thousands of
:40:56. > :41:04.pounds better off because of our trade within the EU. The Nissan
:41:05. > :41:08.plant created thousands of jobs. Some jobs could be lost to forward
:41:09. > :41:11.elsewhere in the country. The bosses of those companies have said that if
:41:12. > :41:17.Britain was to leave the European Union, they would leave Britain and
:41:18. > :41:20.that is why David Cameron and UKIP are playing a dangerous game in
:41:21. > :41:25.sleepwalking this country into an exit from Europe. What Richard said
:41:26. > :41:29.was correct but I would add to further things. We must remember
:41:30. > :41:33.that the European Union has kept the peace amongst its member states for
:41:34. > :41:37.65 years, that is an extraordinary achievement. We must remember that
:41:38. > :41:42.most of our good environmental legislation comes from the EU, I am
:41:43. > :41:46.talking about our rivers and beaches being clean and not covered in
:41:47. > :41:51.sewage, that was of it was in the 1970s before we joined the EU. It is
:41:52. > :41:56.not enough to talk about the trade benefits which are important, two
:41:57. > :42:01.other important points, the EU is undoubtedly a good thing, it needs
:42:02. > :42:09.reform but on balance it is better being in than out. Patrick O'Flynn.
:42:10. > :42:13.I will begin on a pedantic note. Norman is talking about leaving
:42:14. > :42:16.Europe, geographical and that is impossible, we are talking about
:42:17. > :42:21.withdrawing from a federal superstate. Talking about the CBI,
:42:22. > :42:25.the most respected head and former head of the CBI is Digby Jones and
:42:26. > :42:30.he has said that Britain would have a trade deal in place 24 hours after
:42:31. > :42:34.leaving the EU because the German manufacturing sector would assist
:42:35. > :42:43.upon it and he is correct about that because yes, Europe an important
:42:44. > :42:46.market, it is important for our exports and it is not membership of
:42:47. > :42:49.you that those jobs depend upon, it is the ability to export. We are the
:42:50. > :42:55.biggest market in the world for the eurozone, bigger than China or
:42:56. > :43:01.America or any other country. We explored about ?100 million worth of
:43:02. > :43:06.goods each year, we import about 150 million, so they can trade without
:43:07. > :43:09.being a member of a political union and there is absolutely no doubt
:43:10. > :43:13.about that, we would also have the benefit of being able to sing our
:43:14. > :43:18.own trade deals with the faster growing countries of the
:43:19. > :43:27.Commonwealth. Andrew Duff. Can I say how nice it is to see Patrick and
:43:28. > :43:34.the region, this is your first trip here I believe. I have made many
:43:35. > :43:42.public meetings, have you? Let us move on, thank you. Regarding trade,
:43:43. > :43:48.it would be severely damaged if we were to leave. Employment is
:43:49. > :43:54.imperilled and you do not have to believe us, speak to the CBI, the
:43:55. > :44:05.Federation of Small Businesses and so forth, but the idea that the
:44:06. > :44:08.union is static that it is some sort of monolithic thing stuck in the
:44:09. > :44:15.past, I think it actually has to be addressed. It is changing all of the
:44:16. > :44:22.time. It is expanding the strength of the single market and indeed the
:44:23. > :44:30.size of that single market, and, of course, at present it has embarked
:44:31. > :44:39.upon a hugely important trade negotiation with the USA, which is
:44:40. > :44:45.of huge advantage to our economy. Trade apparently has been falling
:44:46. > :44:53.within the EU. Look at this 2013 statistics. It was 42% back in 2008.
:44:54. > :44:59.How worried are you at the prospects, John Scully? I am quite
:45:00. > :45:03.worried because I do not want Britain to be cut adrift of Europe
:45:04. > :45:10.with regard to trade. As Ruppert mentioned, things that have been put
:45:11. > :45:14.in place as regards the policy and Green Party policy, it is important
:45:15. > :45:27.that if we stay within Europe that we are fully present as a pause to
:45:28. > :45:30.partially present. Let's take our next question, from
:45:31. > :45:33.Anca Tinica, a Romanian student. My question would be ` why Romanians
:45:34. > :45:37.and Bulgarians are blamed for coming to work in the UK if we have this
:45:38. > :45:41.right in the EU, and what can be done to change this negative
:45:42. > :45:48.perception? Thank you for that question.
:45:49. > :45:52.Firstly, Patrick O'Flynn. No one should blame Romanians or Bulgarians
:45:53. > :45:56.for coming to Britain, they have the right to do so under our current
:45:57. > :46:00.arrangements, the point is, is it in our interest to have an open door
:46:01. > :46:04.immigration system with two dozen neighbouring countries and over 400
:46:05. > :46:09.million people, UKIP says it is not and all of the polls suggest that
:46:10. > :46:14.the public agree with us that it is not a good idea. What would help in
:46:15. > :46:17.terms of giving immigration a good name in this country again is a
:46:18. > :46:20.proper work permit system with a British National Party to rest could
:46:21. > :46:29.be the thing where we judge who comes into our country, whether they
:46:30. > :46:31.have high skills or are filling the gap in skills and they comply to our
:46:32. > :46:34.core values. If we have a system like that which we can only do
:46:35. > :46:39.outside of the U, I believe race relations will improve remarkably.
:46:40. > :46:47.But these people have a right to be here. That is correct. What about
:46:48. > :46:53.the negative perception, turning that around? The negative
:46:54. > :46:56.perceptions will not turn around whilst we have is open door and
:46:57. > :47:02.there is pressure on social housing. Pressure on transport. But as your
:47:03. > :47:12.leader doing enough to dispel those negative perceptions? It is his job
:47:13. > :47:16.to make them less bad! Why did your leaders say the other day that
:47:17. > :47:20.people have a right to be concerned if Romanians moved next door to
:47:21. > :47:32.them? You were there, you tried to stop him seeing that. I ought to be
:47:33. > :47:39.able to answer. Hang on, I should be able to answer. There are
:47:40. > :47:42.differential figures and Romania has been susceptible to organised crime
:47:43. > :47:48.on a high level, it is true in this this this ticks. Rupert Read, could
:47:49. > :47:54.you answer that question. It is a great question and I am concerned
:47:55. > :47:57.about it. If anyone said that people have a concern about Dewes or Irish
:47:58. > :48:03.people or black people living next door, everyone would condemn that
:48:04. > :48:07.statement. Patrick O'Flynn knows that is incorrect. He tried to stop
:48:08. > :48:13.Nigel Farage from seeing that. That is absolutely not true. You tried to
:48:14. > :48:21.stop the interview. The interview was running overtime. You tried to
:48:22. > :48:25.stop the interview, admit it. Gentlemen, let us get back to the
:48:26. > :48:32.question. Thank you both for the moment. Vicky Ford, please answer.
:48:33. > :48:34.The whole issue of immigration has complicated and we went through a
:48:35. > :48:39.period under the Labour government where it was very uncontrolled and
:48:40. > :48:44.the Labour government have admitted that and that means that in certain
:48:45. > :48:46.parts of the east of England we have seen very significant migration and
:48:47. > :48:52.very significant pressures on local services. In other areas, we also
:48:53. > :48:57.have world`class scientist, world`class research, people from
:48:58. > :49:02.all over the world are coming together and making a huge
:49:03. > :49:06.difference and discovering new Cure 's for diseases, new ways to live
:49:07. > :49:10.and ways of solving the energy problems. We must make sure we stay
:49:11. > :49:15.part of that global community, but at the same time control the impact
:49:16. > :49:19.of immigration. I believe that we must have controls upon immigration,
:49:20. > :49:24.we have put some in place already and have started to make sure that
:49:25. > :49:28.you cannot come only for benefits so that people cannot get this
:49:29. > :49:33.misperception that people only come here for benefits, close those doors
:49:34. > :49:37.and reform so that you cannot have another new country entering without
:49:38. > :49:42.changes on the freedom of movement and restrictions and then we will be
:49:43. > :49:52.able to move former `` forward calmly. Freedom of movement of
:49:53. > :50:01.people within the single market is a very key and precious principle. It
:50:02. > :50:07.defines us as Europeans that we can move and live abroad and the
:50:08. > :50:14.European Union. Millions of Brits have decided to opt for that. The
:50:15. > :50:24.second point, employers in the east of England are crying out to employ
:50:25. > :50:34.Bulgarians, Romanians, people from Poland and so forth. There is a
:50:35. > :50:40.shortage of labour supply in this region and as the economic recovery
:50:41. > :50:47.starts to boom, which I hope it will and I expect it will, the problem of
:50:48. > :51:00.the labour supply will be even more acute. Very briefly, please. With
:51:01. > :51:08.respect to Dr Rupert Read, I do not believe that Nigel Farage was being
:51:09. > :51:11.xenophobic, I think he was being racist and marching to the beat of
:51:12. > :51:18.the nationalist drum, that is a disgrace. There has never been open
:51:19. > :51:24.door immigration, this is simply said to make people feel fearful.
:51:25. > :51:27.The Labour Party believes in controlled immigration and we will
:51:28. > :51:33.put controls when they get back into government. I am sorry about the
:51:34. > :51:40.negative perception, I am a patriotic man and we have always
:51:41. > :51:43.given a warm welcome and courteous welcome to people that visit us and
:51:44. > :51:49.the embarrassment for UKIP is that they put out leaflets saying that 29
:51:50. > :51:54.million Bulgarians and Romanians would come to Britain. One estimate
:51:55. > :52:00.that there were only 30 people, another said they are even fewer now
:52:01. > :52:06.than there were in January! The shame is regarding UKIP as a party
:52:07. > :52:10.and the fact that one of their members resigned last week and said
:52:11. > :52:16.they were being deliberately racist. The Labour Party believes that if
:52:17. > :52:20.you are fair to everyone, and stop people being brought in to undercut
:52:21. > :52:37.the jobs and wages, that is in the interest of everyone. We will move
:52:38. > :52:41.on. We want to talk about farming. Our next question is from William
:52:42. > :52:44.Dickinson. In the East of England we farm some
:52:45. > :52:47.of the UK's most productive farmland, but thanks to decisions
:52:48. > :52:50.taken in Brussels, we're losing tools in our armoury to deal with
:52:51. > :52:53.crop pests and diseases. What will you do, in the next European
:52:54. > :52:56.Parliament, to help ensure decisions taken in Europe are based on sound
:52:57. > :53:07.science, with policies that promote rather than preclude innovation in
:53:08. > :53:10.food and farming? William is asking about sound
:53:11. > :53:13.science and better protection for our farmers and their interests.
:53:14. > :53:19.Richard Howitt, let us start with you. I have backed the technology
:53:20. > :53:23.Centre in Cambridge with European funding that has created the Glass
:53:24. > :53:29.that is helping small farmers in the region. I believe the common
:53:30. > :53:34.agricultural policy reform should have gone further and I have backed
:53:35. > :53:39.our farmers in this region in terms of getting a fair price for their
:53:40. > :53:43.mocks at supermarkets. And making sure that they get payments back to
:53:44. > :53:48.them that with `` that were withdrawn on a European level. But
:53:49. > :53:54.we should also make sure there is greater help for environmental
:53:55. > :53:58.stewardship. We must also talk about the quality of food. After the horse
:53:59. > :54:02.meat scandal when the Tories prevented us from giving honest
:54:03. > :54:07.labelling where the source of our meat comes from, we would have to
:54:08. > :54:12.overcome that and make it and the interest of British farmers. 5.7
:54:13. > :54:18.million loaves of bread are produced in the East, two thirds of sugar
:54:19. > :54:24.beet and one third of UK potatoes. What can we do to protect farmers? I
:54:25. > :54:28.want Britain to be in control of agricultural standards, pesticides
:54:29. > :54:35.and regulations. That is the number one think that UKIP can offer. What
:54:36. > :54:38.we also have is that we have trapped subsidising inefficient farmers who
:54:39. > :54:42.farm on a smaller scale in many European countries, so we are in the
:54:43. > :54:47.absorbed condition where we can support our own farmers more and
:54:48. > :54:51.still reduce food prices for British consumers and that we can do outside
:54:52. > :54:56.of the Common Agricultural Policy and outside of the European Union
:54:57. > :54:58.and that is the number`1 issue with agriculture and food in this
:54:59. > :55:05.country, we'll Richard goes on about food banks where the Common
:55:06. > :55:11.Agricultural Policy is not helping. Farmers tend to grumble. I think we
:55:12. > :55:21.have fantastic farming and the east of England, which is competitive and
:55:22. > :55:31.always pushing the advances of science. I certainly think that we
:55:32. > :55:38.must follow the signs `` the silence as you have proposed, but we have to
:55:39. > :55:48.experiment because science means experiment and rear experimenting at
:55:49. > :55:58.present with the bands upon pesticides near lakes which
:55:59. > :56:07.encourage biodiversity. I would've peeled to our agricultural comment
:56:08. > :56:15.unity to play their part and to support the fantastic research and
:56:16. > :56:23.development that we have in the east of England. Vicky Ford. The east of
:56:24. > :56:28.England as the breadbasket of the country and we also have some world
:56:29. > :56:33.leading scientists. We must listen to those scientists because they are
:56:34. > :56:36.doing fantastic work in terms of overcoming drought and disease and
:56:37. > :56:41.that is what will help us to feed the world's growing population and
:56:42. > :56:46.with the growing food prices. Before we rush into some sort of a ban in
:56:47. > :56:50.Europe on the latest chemical solution which the Green Party and
:56:51. > :56:54.the Labour Party tend to do, we must listen to the voice of science and
:56:55. > :57:01.to work with scientists to make sure that people understand what is being
:57:02. > :57:06.used. A like Fried potato, which means you do not need to spray your
:57:07. > :57:12.crops 50 times are here, what could be wrong with that? We must look at
:57:13. > :57:17.each individual crop and decide what we want and which ones we do not and
:57:18. > :57:21.that's how we will the world. And the Green Party we are all in favour
:57:22. > :57:29.of sound science and that is why be back climate science. Unlike the
:57:30. > :57:32.Tories. Sound science does not mean backing genetically modified crops
:57:33. > :57:37.and it does not mean taking the gene from a fish and sticking it into a
:57:38. > :57:42.tomato recklessly, it does not mean throwing more pesticides and
:57:43. > :57:45.herbicides onto the land. We must build an agricultural policy fit for
:57:46. > :57:53.the 21st`century that will reduce the amount of artificial inputs and
:57:54. > :57:59.move us towards a system of improved aggro forestry and systems that will
:58:00. > :58:03.work in the long term. William Dickinson, what are your own
:58:04. > :58:07.concerns? From my point of view, the scary thing is that if we cannot
:58:08. > :58:10.produce food in this country that we will import it and most other
:58:11. > :58:16.countries in the world are using new crop technologies and the public
:58:17. > :58:21.will be exposed to reading that new technology, will we in Europe and
:58:22. > :58:26.build a wall around the farmers telling them that they cannot use
:58:27. > :58:35.it. Time for one more question. We are short of time.
:58:36. > :58:37.Our next question is from Bronwen Philpott.
:58:38. > :58:40.A lot of the employment legislation that has a big impact due to cost
:58:41. > :58:43.and complexity on small and medium`sized businesses when they
:58:44. > :58:46.employ people is from the EU. What is your view on that? Very brief
:58:47. > :58:52.comment on red tape, Andrew Duff. I would agree that sometimes
:58:53. > :58:58.employment law from Brussels or from Whitehall which is just as bad can
:58:59. > :59:08.be very intrusive and can be a burden for industry, both small and
:59:09. > :59:14.big. It is essential that as we go forward into the next phase of
:59:15. > :59:18.reform of the European Union that we are tougher on the bigger things and
:59:19. > :59:24.smaller on the smaller things. Richard Howitt. Everyone appears to
:59:25. > :59:31.be against red tape but people must look at the health and safety, think
:59:32. > :59:35.about that tragedy locally where people died. People will ask why
:59:36. > :59:43.were health and safety not better put into place. One in five workers
:59:44. > :59:47.in the east of England feel insecure in the workplace and we must get rid
:59:48. > :59:53.of those zero`hour contracts and make sure that the minimum wage is
:59:54. > :59:58.properly enforced. Rupert Read. The level playing field is not present.
:59:59. > :00:03.It must be more friendly to smaller businesses. We believe that small is
:00:04. > :00:08.beautiful. Rolling back the red tape is critical for small businesses. We
:00:09. > :00:13.have identified the ten most burdensome and I want to unwind that
:00:14. > :00:17.red tape but sadly the Green Party and the Labour Party are blocking is
:00:18. > :00:24.doing that and Europe. Patrick O'Flynn, finally. The European Union
:00:25. > :00:28.as the club of big business. Some of that big business is like red tape
:00:29. > :00:32.because they can't afford the compliance teams and the lobbyists,
:00:33. > :00:38.we must get out of this feeling organisation and get back to having
:00:39. > :00:44.our enterprising spirit and bring jobs back to the UK. Bronwen
:00:45. > :00:49.Philpott, what do you think? My concern is that a lot of small
:00:50. > :00:56.companies particularly in terms of maternity, the impact upon small
:00:57. > :01:09.businesses as salt important. We are sadly out of time. Thank you Thanks
:01:10. > :01:11.to all of you and, of course, there are some other parties fighting
:01:12. > :01:18.these European elections in the Eastern region.
:01:19. > :01:21.Here they are on screen now. We are back next Sunday morning and we will
:01:22. > :01:24.have all of the results from the local elections. We will see you
:01:25. > :01:27.then. APPLAUSE
:01:28. > :01:39.thank you very much indeed. Back to Andrew.
:01:40. > :01:46.Welcome back. Politicians always insist in public that opinion polls
:01:47. > :01:50.do not matter. Even though their own parties each spend a small fortune
:01:51. > :01:56.on private polling. If they take them seriously, so do we! Let's take
:01:57. > :02:00.a closer look. First up, how the votes might fall for the European
:02:01. > :02:05.Parliament. Back in January, Labour looked set to finish first. By
:02:06. > :02:10.April, UKIP had edged into the lead. According to today's poles, Nigel
:02:11. > :02:15.Farage's party is either down into place, or has soared ahead. Both
:02:16. > :02:28.cannot be right. It is a similar picture for the general election.
:02:29. > :02:35.Labour's lead has been cut back by the Tories. This is the most
:02:36. > :02:42.unpredictable general election in a long time. It keeps us in a job! We
:02:43. > :02:46.are joined now by the managing director of the pollsters, ComRes.
:02:47. > :02:51.Welcome to the programme. While the polls all over the place on the
:02:52. > :02:53.European election? We are trying to do two things, figure out who is
:02:54. > :02:59.going to be voting, and how they are going to be voting. I think a lot of
:03:00. > :03:04.the polls are predicting quite high turnout. They are looking at more
:03:05. > :03:08.than 50% turnout, which is simply not can be the case. So, what we are
:03:09. > :03:13.than 50% turnout, which is simply those who are ten out of ten,
:03:14. > :03:20.certain to vote, and it really benefits UKIP, it benefits them
:03:21. > :03:28.democratically, demographically, with the older age profile, who are
:03:29. > :03:34.going to vote. Another poll gives them only a one-point lead, so, come
:03:35. > :03:37.the results coming out, you are either going to look away ahead of
:03:38. > :03:43.your time or very stupid? Absolutely. That is the job of
:03:44. > :03:47.pollsters. Somebody has to be wrong. Ultimately, we were spot on in 2009,
:03:48. > :04:02.and we are hoping to be spot on on Thursday. So you were spot on on
:04:03. > :04:10.voting intention in 2009? Yes. What does the indications of what is now
:04:11. > :04:17.a four party system mean, does it change the nature of your methods?
:04:18. > :04:22.It changes how we look at the polls, how we look at what is going to
:04:23. > :04:25.happen as a result of the vote. Predicting the number of seats is
:04:26. > :04:29.becoming more and more important and more difficult to do, because
:04:30. > :04:36.distribution is becoming fundamentally important. Because it
:04:37. > :04:41.is for parties? That's right. . Does the polling give us any evidence to
:04:42. > :04:47.try to settle the matter of whether UKIP votes are coming from? Yes. We
:04:48. > :04:50.know that over 50% of the UKIP vote share is coming from the
:04:51. > :04:54.Conservatives come people who did vote Conservative in 2010. But
:04:55. > :05:00.actually, the other 50% is coming from a wide range of different
:05:01. > :05:03.sources. And what we are seeing is that ultimately, every single
:05:04. > :05:07.establishment party should be worried, because the people voting
:05:08. > :05:12.for UKIP are the people that really do not like politics at the moment.
:05:13. > :05:18.They are wanting people to speak on their behalf, so it affects all of
:05:19. > :05:21.them. There is evidence that there is now a move of some working-class
:05:22. > :05:27.Labour votes to UKIP as well? That's right. That is what I mean about the
:05:28. > :05:31.establishment vote, the people that they can really reach out to, who
:05:32. > :05:37.are really interested in things like immigration, in those single issues,
:05:38. > :05:41.where they do not feel the political parties of the mainstream are
:05:42. > :05:47.representing them. I would suggest that for the European elections,
:05:48. > :05:55.where turnout is low, ComRes may be right or wrong, but likely to vote
:05:56. > :05:59.would seem to be the yardstick. I would say that is true in almost any
:06:00. > :06:03.European election apart from this one. Because there has been so much
:06:04. > :06:06.attention on this election, because of UKIP and the probably do that
:06:07. > :06:11.they will win second, I wonder whether it is now such a big topic
:06:12. > :06:16.of conversation, the subject of Nigel Farage, that people who would
:06:17. > :06:20.otherwise talk a good game about voting UKIP but do not show up on
:06:21. > :06:26.the day are this time around likely to show up on the day? I am not
:06:27. > :06:34.entirely convinced by that. We underestimate how many people are
:06:35. > :06:37.completely disengaged by politics. I think it is very easy for us to
:06:38. > :06:42.think, and I agree that by any other standards, this is the most coverage
:06:43. > :06:48.a European election has ever had in Britain, but still, most people
:06:49. > :06:54.don't care. Instinctively, Nick, you would think, if you are a UKIP
:06:55. > :06:56.photo, if you have made that choice, then you would probably be more
:06:57. > :07:01.motivated to go and vote on Thursday? I am sure that is right.
:07:02. > :07:08.Also, the publicity that Nigel Farage has had. And also, as
:07:09. > :07:13.Catherine says, people are attracted to UKIP because they are annoyed
:07:14. > :07:16.with the established parties. If you have made that big decision to do
:07:17. > :07:19.it, then you will probably do it. The really big question which we
:07:20. > :07:25.want to take out of these elections is, how many people who have left
:07:26. > :07:29.the established parties, left the Conservative Party, in these
:07:30. > :07:35.elections on Thursday, how many of them will stick with UKIP and how
:07:36. > :07:41.many of them will go back? Nigel Farage is very confident, he is
:07:42. > :07:45.saying that 60% of those certain to vote UKIP will stick with UKIP. If
:07:46. > :07:49.that happens, it is a real problem for Downing Street. Downing Street
:07:50. > :07:52.are basically saying that many Tories will have a fling with UKIP
:07:53. > :07:59.but they will return to the marital home next year. You do two sorts of
:08:00. > :08:03.polling, for the European elections, and for the general election, which
:08:04. > :08:07.may be more relevant to the local election voters, but what is the
:08:08. > :08:13.answer to his question? We do not know at the moment. We when you ask
:08:14. > :08:18.people how likely they are to vote in the same way, they are thinking
:08:19. > :08:21.that actually, I am going to vote in exactly the same way at the general
:08:22. > :08:26.election, they are not going to say, I am going to split my vote. I think
:08:27. > :08:30.the key point is, what happens in the Euros. We have a fixed term
:08:31. > :08:35.parliament, which means momentum is crucial. What comes out of the Euros
:08:36. > :08:40.will be a statement about how well UKIP can last for the next year, or
:08:41. > :08:46.indeed, if it comes second, it is about momentum and feeling about the
:08:47. > :08:50.parties. I do not think we can tell yet. If UKIP does well, there could
:08:51. > :08:55.be some leadership crises we will have to cover. I want to look at a
:08:56. > :09:10.couple of the headlines on the screen. Now, it seems, as you can
:09:11. > :09:13.see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could be in some trouble. The Labour MP
:09:14. > :09:19.for Rochdale talking about the mantra of misery which is Labour's
:09:20. > :09:25.policy is not going down well. And there are also rumbles about, if Mr
:09:26. > :09:29.Clegg comes fourth or even fifth in the European elections, that there
:09:30. > :09:36.will be a plot to remove him. There are not many names behind that plot
:09:37. > :09:44.yet, but Vince Cable does get an honourable mention! Not that he is
:09:45. > :09:47.plotting, but he could take over! If Labour comes a poor second, and the
:09:48. > :09:53.Tories are third, and Nick Clegg is nowhere, there is a
:09:54. > :09:59.Clevedon-Miliband agenda, isn't there? It will be very different for
:10:00. > :10:07.each man. The worst thing that could happen to Labour is if Nick Clegg
:10:08. > :10:10.loses his job, because he will be replaced by somebody substantially
:10:11. > :10:16.to the left of him, you would have to assume, someone like Tim Farron.
:10:17. > :10:19.I think it is unlikely that David Laws Danny Alexander, the two
:10:20. > :10:24.prominent figures who are to the right of him, would win the
:10:25. > :10:30.leadership. If it is someone who is quite a way to the left of Nick
:10:31. > :10:32.Clegg, then some voters might find the party a more attractive
:10:33. > :10:37.proposition. Which is why the Tories want to hold on to Nick Clegg.
:10:38. > :10:43.Absolutely. But I think you are right, there is a really big bubble
:10:44. > :10:47.for Ed Miliband here. The second big thing, I do not know if you saw the
:10:48. > :10:52.photo opportunity this week, Boris Johnson strolling through a garden
:10:53. > :10:57.with David Cameron, they got off the chew one-stop early just to
:10:58. > :11:02.appreciate the spring sunshine. But where are the shadow cabinet? I hear
:11:03. > :11:06.rumours of a politician called Yvette Cooper, but I do not know
:11:07. > :11:11.what she has been up to recently. And Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham,
:11:12. > :11:15.all of these big hitters are not lashing themselves to the mast of
:11:16. > :11:19.the Labour election campaign. And some of these big hitters are
:11:20. > :11:23.immensely talented, Rachel Reeves, Chuka Umunna, these guys are really
:11:24. > :11:27.talented. You get the impression that they are watching this as you
:11:28. > :11:31.say and biding their time. Ed Miliband has bet the farm on this
:11:32. > :11:36.calculation that there has been this rupture between the rise in wages
:11:37. > :11:43.and the rise in inflation, although that is now beginning to slow. The
:11:44. > :11:46.calculation he is making is that in the 2012 presidential election, Mitt
:11:47. > :11:50.Romney was ahead on many of the economic indicators, but Barack
:11:51. > :11:56.Obama won because he said, I am on your side. He has bet the farm on
:11:57. > :12:00.that. But there is a big difference between Miliband and Barack Obama,
:12:01. > :12:04.which is that Barack Obama was elected in 2008 after the crash, so
:12:05. > :12:09.everything he did was about rescue. The problem for Ed Miliband and Ed
:12:10. > :12:13.Balls is that they were in power when the crash happened, so it is
:12:14. > :12:18.difficult to make that comparison. Labour is nip and tuck with the
:12:19. > :12:23.Tories, or ahead by a small amount - Mr Miliband's personal ratings are
:12:24. > :12:26.much worse than what David Cameron's were at the same stage in
:12:27. > :12:33.the political cycle, does that matter? I think personal ratings do
:12:34. > :12:39.matter, particularly if things like Ukraine gained more prominence in
:12:40. > :12:44.the media. It is a question of who you want as your statesman. But on
:12:45. > :12:46.the economy specifically, actually, the economic ratings in terms of
:12:47. > :12:53.confidence in the leader has not changed. That has not changed for
:12:54. > :13:01.years now. It is pretty stable. Actually, the narrowing of the polls
:13:02. > :13:06.could be due to the usual narrowing about 12 months out from the
:13:07. > :13:10.election, and Labour really need to use the momentum. Thank you for
:13:11. > :13:14.that. Plenty to talk about after you all go to the polls on Thursday.
:13:15. > :13:18.There will be tonnes of election coverage and results on the BBC,
:13:19. > :13:22.Thursday night, Friday, and of course, Sunday night, when the
:13:23. > :13:26.European results come out. Daily Politics is back on BBC Two tomorrow
:13:27. > :13:30.lunchtime. I will be back here next Sunday at 11 o'clock as usual for
:13:31. > :13:33.The Sunday Politics. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is The Sunday