:00:39. > :00:44.Good morning, welcome to the Sunday Politics. Senior Liberal Democrats
:00:45. > :00:51.say the public has lost trust in Nick Clegg. They call for him to go
:00:52. > :00:55.after the local election meltdown. And before the likely Europa rove a
:00:56. > :01:00.catastrophe tonight. Labour and Tories struggled to cope with the
:01:01. > :01:04.UKIP insurgency as Nigel Farage hosts his success and declares the
:01:05. > :01:09.UKIP Fox is in the Westminster henhouse.
:01:10. > :01:12.UKIP Fox is in the Westminster Here in the east, Labour gains
:01:13. > :01:16.Cambridge and builds in many of its strongholds. But it is stopped in
:01:17. > :01:17.its tracks by the UKIP surge in key councils.
:01:18. > :01:20.hall spread, the Liberal Democrats disappeared, UKIP
:01:21. > :01:29.hall spread, the Liberal Democrats More analysis in just over half an
:01:30. > :01:34.hour. Cooped up in the Sunday Politics
:01:35. > :01:42.henhouse, our own boot should -- bunch of headless chickens. Nick
:01:43. > :01:46.Watt, Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh. The Liberal Democrats lost over 300
:01:47. > :01:50.councillors on Thursday, on top of the losses in previous years, the
:01:51. > :01:54.local government base has been whittled away in many parts of the
:01:55. > :01:56.country. Members of the European Parliament will face a similar
:01:57. > :02:01.comment when the results are announced tonight. A small but
:02:02. > :02:06.growing chorus of Liberal Democrats have called on Nick Clegg to go.
:02:07. > :02:11.This is what the candidate in West Dorset had to say.
:02:12. > :02:18.People know that locally we worked incredibly hard on their councils
:02:19. > :02:22.and as their MPs, but Nick Clegg is perceived to have not been
:02:23. > :02:31.trustworthy in leadership. Do you trust him? He has lacked bone on
:02:32. > :02:35.significant issues that are the core values of our party.
:02:36. > :02:40.This is how the party president responded.
:02:41. > :02:46.At this time, it would be foolish for us as a party to turn in on
:02:47. > :02:51.ourselves. What has separated us from the Conservatives is, while
:02:52. > :02:54.they have been like cats in a sack, we have stood united, and that is
:02:55. > :03:00.what we will continue to do. The major reason why is because we
:03:01. > :03:10.consented to the coalition, unlike the Conservatives. We had a vote,
:03:11. > :03:16.and a full conference. Is there a growing question over
:03:17. > :03:23.Nick Clegg's leadership? Different people have different views. My own
:03:24. > :03:26.view is I need to consult my own activists and members before coming
:03:27. > :03:31.to a conclusion. I am looking at holding a meeting for us to discuss
:03:32. > :03:35.the issue. I have been told by some people they do not think a meeting
:03:36. > :03:40.is required, they think he should stay, and other people have decided
:03:41. > :03:44.he should go. As a responsible Democrat, I should consult the
:03:45. > :03:50.members here before coming to my conclusions. What is your view at
:03:51. > :03:56.the moment? I have got to listen to my members. But you must have some
:03:57. > :04:02.kind of you. Because I have an open mind, I do not think he must stay, I
:04:03. > :04:09.am willing to say I have not made my mind up. From a news point of view,
:04:10. > :04:14.that is my official position. I can assure you there is not much news in
:04:15. > :04:20.that! I said earlier I am not going to say he must go must stay, I am
:04:21. > :04:24.consulting my members. But you must have some kind of view of your own
:04:25. > :04:28.before you have listened to your members. There are people who are
:04:29. > :04:32.wrongfully sanctioned and end up using food banks, I am upset about
:04:33. > :04:38.that, because we should not allow... I do not mind having a
:04:39. > :04:41.sanctioning system, that I get constituents who are put in this
:04:42. > :04:49.position, we should not accept that. I rebel on the issue of a referendum
:04:50. > :04:52.on membership of the EU. I am also concerned about the way the rules
:04:53. > :04:57.have been changed in terms of how parents are treated in their ability
:04:58. > :05:03.to take children to funerals out of school time. There are questions
:05:04. > :05:09.about the leader's responsible T for those policies. Nick Clegg has made
:05:10. > :05:14.it clear he is a staunch pro-European, he wants the Liberal
:05:15. > :05:18.Democrats to be in, he does not want a referendum, if you lose a chunk of
:05:19. > :05:22.your MEPs tonight, what does that say about how in June you are with
:05:23. > :05:28.written public opinion? There are issues with how you publish your
:05:29. > :05:33.policies. I do not agree 100% with what the government is doing or with
:05:34. > :05:38.what Nick Clegg says. I do think we should stay within the EU, because
:05:39. > :05:43.the alternative means we have less control over our borders. There is a
:05:44. > :05:50.presentational issue, because what UKIP want, to leave the EU, is worse
:05:51. > :05:54.in terms of control of borders, which is their main reason for
:05:55. > :06:00.wanting to leave, which is strange. There are debate issues, but I have
:06:01. > :06:03.got personal concerns, I do worry about the impact on my constituents
:06:04. > :06:10.when they face wrongful sanctions. You have said that. A fellow Liberal
:06:11. > :06:15.Democrat MP has compared Nick Clegg to a general at the Somme, causing
:06:16. > :06:21.carnage amongst the troops. I am more interested in the policy
:06:22. > :06:25.issues, are we doing the right things? I do think the coalition was
:06:26. > :06:30.essential, we had to rescue the country from financial problems. My
:06:31. > :06:34.own view on the issue of student finance, we did the right thing, in
:06:35. > :06:40.accordance with the pledge, which was to get a better system, more
:06:41. > :06:44.students are going to university, and more from disadvantaged
:06:45. > :06:48.backgrounds. But there are issues. But Nick Clegg survive as leader
:06:49. > :06:53.through till the next election? It depends what odds you will give me!
:06:54. > :06:58.If you are not going to give me is, I am not going to get! If you listen
:06:59. > :07:04.to John hemming, he has got nothing to worry about. He does have
:07:05. > :07:13.something to worry about, they lost 300 seats, on the uniform swing, you
:07:14. > :07:17.would see people like Vince cable and Simon Hughes lose their seats.
:07:18. > :07:21.But nobody wants to be the one to we'll be nice, they would rather
:07:22. > :07:27.wait until after the next election, and then rebuild the party. Yes,
:07:28. > :07:33.there is no chance of him walking away. Somebody like Tim Farron or
:07:34. > :07:37.Vince Cable, whoever the successor is, though have to close the dagger
:07:38. > :07:43.ten months before an election, do they want that spectacle? If I were
:07:44. > :07:46.Nick Clegg, I would walk away, it is reasonably obvious that the
:07:47. > :07:51.left-wing voters who defect had towards the Labour Party in 2010
:07:52. > :07:56.will not return while he is leader. And anything he was going to achieve
:07:57. > :08:01.historically, the already has done. Unlike David Miliband, sorry, Ed
:08:02. > :08:07.Miliband or David Cameron, he has transformed the identity of the
:08:08. > :08:11.party, they are in government. Had it not been for him, they would have
:08:12. > :08:17.continued to be the main protest party, rather than a party of
:08:18. > :08:21.government. So he has got to take it all the way through until the
:08:22. > :08:26.election. If he left now, he would look like he was a tenant in the
:08:27. > :08:29.conservative house. What we are seeing is an operation to
:08:30. > :08:35.destabilise Nick Clegg, but it is a Liberal Democrat one, so it is
:08:36. > :08:39.chaotic. There are people who have never really been reconciled to the
:08:40. > :08:47.coalition and to Nick Clegg, they are pushing for this. What is Nick
:08:48. > :08:52.Clegg going to do, and Tim Farron? -- what is Vince Cable going to do?
:08:53. > :09:00.Vince Cable is in China, on a business trip. It is like John
:09:01. > :09:05.Major's toothache in 1990. What is Tim Farron doing? He is behind Nick
:09:06. > :09:09.Clegg, because he knows that his best chances of being leader are as
:09:10. > :09:15.the Westland candidate, the person who picks up the mess in a year.
:09:16. > :09:21.Vince Cable's only opportunity is on this side of the election. But you
:09:22. > :09:27.say they are not a party of government, but what looks more
:09:28. > :09:33.likely is overall the -- is no overall control. You might find a
:09:34. > :09:37.common mission looking appealing. They could still hold the balance of
:09:38. > :09:45.power. A lot of people in the Labour Party might say, let's just have a
:09:46. > :09:49.minority government. 30 odds and sods who will not turn up to vote.
:09:50. > :09:55.If they want to be up until 3am every morning, be like that! When
:09:56. > :10:03.you were in short trousers, it was like that every night, it was great
:10:04. > :10:06.fun! The Liberal Democrats will not provide confidence to a minority
:10:07. > :10:12.government, they will pull the plug and behave ruthlessly. Does Nick leg
:10:13. > :10:20.lead the Liberal Democrats into the next election? Yes. Yes. Yes. I am
:10:21. > :10:24.sorry, Nick Clegg, you are finished! We will speak to Paddy
:10:25. > :10:28.Ashdown in the second part of the show to speak about the Liberal
:10:29. > :10:32.Democrats. The UKIP insurgency could not deliver the promised earthquake,
:10:33. > :10:36.but it produced enough shock waves to discombobulated the established
:10:37. > :10:39.parties. They are struggling to work out how to deal with them. We
:10:40. > :10:53.watched it all unfold. Behind the scenes of any election
:10:54. > :10:57.night is intensely busy. Those in charge of party strategy and
:10:58. > :11:02.logistics want their people focused, working with purpose and rehearsed
:11:03. > :11:07.to make sure their spin on the results is what viewers remember and
:11:08. > :11:11.take on board. A bit of a buzz of activity inside the BBC's studio,
:11:12. > :11:17.kept and primed for the results. What this does not show due is the
:11:18. > :11:22.exterior doubles up for hospital dramas like Holby City, there are
:11:23. > :11:25.doorways that are mock-ups of accident and emergency, but the
:11:26. > :11:29.electorate will discover which of the parties they have put into
:11:30. > :11:33.intensive care, which ones are coming out of recovery and which
:11:34. > :11:38.ones are in rude health. We joined David Dimbleby. Good evening,
:11:39. > :11:44.welcome to the BBC's new election centre. When three big beasts become
:11:45. > :11:49.for on the political field, things have changed. Eric Pickles says we
:11:50. > :11:55.will be seen off next year, we will see you at Westminster! This party
:11:56. > :12:00.is going to break through next year, and you never know, we might even
:12:01. > :12:04.hold the balance of power. Old messages that gave voters in excuses
:12:05. > :12:07.to go elsewhere on the ballot paper exposed the older players to
:12:08. > :12:11.questions from within their ranks. In the hen house of the House of
:12:12. > :12:16.Commons, the fox that wants to get in has ruffled feathers. The reason
:12:17. > :12:22.they have had amazing success, a rapid rise, partly what Chuka Umunna
:12:23. > :12:28.says about being a repository, but they have also managed to sound like
:12:29. > :12:32.human beings, and that his Nigel Farage's eight victory. For some
:12:33. > :12:37.conservatives, a pact was the best form of defence. It would be
:12:38. > :12:40.preferable if all members of UKIP and voters became Tories overnight.
:12:41. > :12:47.That seems to be an ambitious proposition. Therefore, we need to
:12:48. > :12:53.do something that welcomes them on board in a slightly different way.
:12:54. > :12:57.Labour had successes, but nobody but they're wizards of Spain was
:12:58. > :13:01.completely buying a big success story. Gaffes behind the scenes and
:13:02. > :13:07.strategic errors were levelled at those who have managed the campaign.
:13:08. > :13:11.They have played a clever game, you shuffle bedecked around, and if UKIP
:13:12. > :13:16.does quite well but not well enough, that helps Labour get in. That kind
:13:17. > :13:22.of mindset will not win the general election, and we saw that in the tap
:13:23. > :13:28.ticks and strategy, and that is why, on our leaflets for the European
:13:29. > :13:32.elections, we chose deliberately not to attack UKIP, that was a bad
:13:33. > :13:38.error. Not so, so somebody who has been in that spotlight. If you look
:13:39. > :13:42.at the electoral maths, UKIP will still be aiming at the Tories in a
:13:43. > :13:46.general election. They are the second party in Rotherham, Labour
:13:47. > :13:50.will always hold what the room, it is safe, there is no point being
:13:51. > :13:55.second in a safe seat. UKIP have taken Castle Point, a Tory seat they
:13:56. > :14:01.will target. The question for the next election, can they make a
:14:02. > :14:06.challenge? The Tories will be under the gun from UKIP. The substance of
:14:07. > :14:10.these results is UKIP not in government, they do not have any
:14:11. > :14:15.MPs, they do not run a single Council, at dismissing them ceased
:14:16. > :14:17.to be an option. The question is, who will they heard most and how do
:14:18. > :14:39.you smoke the keeper's threat? Joining me now, day about and
:14:40. > :14:46.Patrick O'Flynn. Do you agree not enough was done for the elections?
:14:47. > :14:49.No, we have very good results around Hammersmith and Fulham, Croydon,
:14:50. > :14:59.Redbridge, and we picked off council wards in Haringey meaning that Lynne
:15:00. > :15:04.Featherstone and Simon Hughes worked on. The Ashcroft polling shows that
:15:05. > :15:14.in key marginals, we are well ahead and on course to win in 2015. I will
:15:15. > :15:18.be putting Mr Ashcroft's poll to Eric Pickles shortly. On the basis
:15:19. > :15:24.of the local elections your national share of the vote would be just 31%,
:15:25. > :15:28.only two points ahead of the Tories, only two points ahead of Gordon
:15:29. > :15:35.Brown's disastrous performance in 2010. Why so low? National share is
:15:36. > :15:44.one thing but I am talking about what we are doing in the key
:15:45. > :15:50.marginals. Clearly some were taken away from others like Rotherham but
:15:51. > :15:55.we have got many voters back. You are only two points better than you
:15:56. > :15:59.were in 2010 and use of your worst defeat in living memory.
:16:00. > :16:04.That is the totality. What matters is seat by seat, that is what the
:16:05. > :16:09.Republicans found in the presidential elections. Patrick
:16:10. > :16:13.O'Flynn, you performed well in the local election but it wasn't an
:16:14. > :16:18.earthquake. It is definitely true that Labour did well in London but
:16:19. > :16:21.that is a double-edged sword because you have an increasing disconnect
:16:22. > :16:29.between the metropolis and the rest of the country. Our vote share was
:16:30. > :16:32.somewhat depressed not just because London is one of our weakest part of
:16:33. > :16:39.the country but because most of the warts in London were 3-member wards
:16:40. > :16:43.and we were typically only putting up one candidate. Even when they
:16:44. > :16:49.fared well, it still tracked down the projected national share. I
:16:50. > :16:55.think we did well, and what was particularly good was getting the
:16:56. > :17:09.target seat list becoming clear before our eyes. Suzanne Evans said
:17:10. > :17:15.that basically smart folk don't vote for UKIP. I think that is a tiny
:17:16. > :17:19.fragment of what she said. She said London is its own entity and is
:17:20. > :17:23.increasingly different from the rest of the country. One of the things
:17:24. > :17:29.that is different from London as opposed to Rotherham is that we have
:17:30. > :17:35.very big parties. I have a few thousand people in mind, Rotherham
:17:36. > :17:40.has a few hundred. People don't go and knock on doors and talk to
:17:41. > :17:45.people, in London we have always had to do that. London is full of young
:17:46. > :17:49.voters, full of ethnically diverse voters, that is why you are not
:17:50. > :17:56.doing well, you don't appeal to live there. I think London in general has
:17:57. > :18:01.a very different attitude to mass uncontrolled immigration. Londoners
:18:02. > :18:11.know that if an immigrant moves in next door to you, to use Nigel
:18:12. > :18:16.Farage's phrase, the world doesn't end tomorrow. People in the big
:18:17. > :18:22.cities know that, that is the point. What Diane Abbott is doing is try to
:18:23. > :18:29.convince London of its moral superiority so I am delighted... It
:18:30. > :18:34.is a simple fact that immigrants do not end the world if they move in
:18:35. > :18:38.next door. The economic recovery is getting more robust by the month,
:18:39. > :18:44.you have a seriously to ship problem according to many people on your own
:18:45. > :18:53.site. Maybe you're 31% of the vote is as good as it gets. Those who go
:18:54. > :19:01.round bitching about Ed Miliband have been doing that before the
:19:02. > :19:11.result. We have all polled very well. Ed Miliband does not polled
:19:12. > :19:16.very well. He has actually fashioned some really effective policies.
:19:17. > :19:20.Unemployment is tumbling, inflation is falling, growth is strengthening,
:19:21. > :19:26.and you have a leader who claims there is a cost of living crisis and
:19:27. > :19:33.he doesn't have a clue about his own cost of living. I think that was
:19:34. > :19:42.poor staff work. That he doesn't know what goes in his own shopping
:19:43. > :19:49.basket? I think his own staff could have prepared him for that. My point
:19:50. > :19:57.is that the numbers are looking better, we know that, but people
:19:58. > :20:05.don't feel better off. Then why are all consumer index polls better?
:20:06. > :20:08.They are feeling confident. They may be saying that, but people are
:20:09. > :20:14.worried about their future, their children's future. That is not what
:20:15. > :20:18.you buy today or tomorrow. If you ask people about their future and
:20:19. > :20:23.their children's future and prospects, they feel frightened.
:20:24. > :20:29.What will be a good result for you in the general election? We need to
:20:30. > :20:34.see Nigel Farage elected as an MP and he mustn't go there on his own.
:20:35. > :20:40.How many people do you think will be with him? Who knows, but we will
:20:41. > :20:44.have 20 to 30 target seat and if you put together the clusters we got in
:20:45. > :20:49.last year's County elections with the one we got this year, you can
:20:50. > :20:53.have a good guess at where they are. A number of people who voted
:20:54. > :20:58.for you and Thursday say they are going to back to the three main
:20:59. > :21:07.parties in general election. It would be foolish of me to say that
:21:08. > :21:14.they are going to stay. Some have said they have just lent their votes
:21:15. > :21:22.but voters hate being taken for granted. It is up to us to broaden
:21:23. > :21:28.our agenda, and build on our strengths, work on our weaknesses.
:21:29. > :21:34.Ed Miliband may have to do a deal with him. We have been here before,
:21:35. > :21:39.but the UKIP bubble is going to burst and that may happen around the
:21:40. > :21:46.time of Newark. Are you going to win Newark now? We are going to give it
:21:47. > :21:55.a really good crack. We love being the underdog, we don't see it as
:21:56. > :22:01.being the big goal -- the be all and end all. If you're going to get a
:22:02. > :22:09.big bounce off the elections, not to go and win your shows people who
:22:10. > :22:14.govern in Parliament, they don't vote for you. It is Labour who have
:22:15. > :22:17.given up the campaign already so we need a really big swing in our
:22:18. > :22:27.favour and we will give it a great crack. The bubble will burst at the
:22:28. > :22:37.Newark by-election, trust me. Have you been to Newark? Newark will see
:22:38. > :22:42.from local people... Where is it? It is outside the M25, I can tell you
:22:43. > :22:47.that. My point is that we are set for victory in 2015. I want to run
:22:48. > :22:53.this clip and get your take on it, an interview that Nigel Farage did
:22:54. > :22:57.with LBC. What they do is they have an auditor to make sure they spend
:22:58. > :23:05.their money in accordance with their rules. You say that is if there is
:23:06. > :23:13.something wrong with it. Hang on, hang on. This is Patrick O'Flynn, is
:23:14. > :23:19.this a friend in the media or a member of the political class? Do
:23:20. > :23:27.you regret doing that now? What were you doing? No, I was trying to get
:23:28. > :23:34.Nigel Farage to a more important interview with Sunday Times that had
:23:35. > :23:43.painstakingly organised. He was on there? I have told the LBC people
:23:44. > :23:48.next door that he was running over. So you interrupted a live interview
:23:49. > :23:52.and you don't regret that? No, because just between us I wasn't a
:23:53. > :23:57.massive enthusiast for that interview taking place at all. I
:23:58. > :24:09.know what James O'Brien is like and I knew it wouldn't be particularly
:24:10. > :24:17.edifying. But your boss wasn't happy with the intervention. Sometimes the
:24:18. > :24:22.boss gets shirty. We all upset our boss every now and again, but anyway
:24:23. > :24:26.you could be an MEP by this time tomorrow and you won't have to do
:24:27. > :24:31.this job any more. You can then just count your salary and your expenses.
:24:32. > :24:37.I will make the contribution my party leader asked me to, to restore
:24:38. > :24:41.Britain to being a self-governing country. Are you going to stay in
:24:42. > :24:45.the job or not? I would not be able to do the job in the same way but I
:24:46. > :24:54.would maybe have some kind of overview. We will leave it there.
:24:55. > :25:00.Yesterday Michael Ashcroft, a former deputy chairman, produced a mammoth
:25:01. > :25:03.opinion poll of more than 26,000 voters in 26 marginal
:25:04. > :25:07.constituencies, crucial seat that will decide the outcome of the
:25:08. > :25:12.general election next year. In 26 constituencies people were asked
:25:13. > :25:26.which party's candidate they would support, and Labour took a healthy
:25:27. > :25:34.12 point lead, implying a swing of 6.5% from Conservatives to Labour
:25:35. > :25:38.from the last general election. That implies Labour would topple 83 Tory
:25:39. > :25:51.MPs. The poll also shows UKIP in second place in four seats, and
:25:52. > :25:55.three of them are Labour seats. Michael Ashcroft says a quarter of
:25:56. > :26:00.those who say they would vote UKIP supported the Tories at the last
:26:01. > :26:04.election. As many as have switched from Labour and the Lib Dems
:26:05. > :26:10.combined. The communities Secretary Eric
:26:11. > :26:14.Pickles joins me now. The Ashcroft Paul that gives Labour a massive 12
:26:15. > :26:19.point lead in the crucial marginal constituencies, you would lose 83
:26:20. > :26:23.MPs if this was repeated in an election. It doesn't get worse than
:26:24. > :26:31.that, does it? Yesterday I went through that Paul in great detail,
:26:32. > :26:37.and what it shows is that in a number of key seats we are ahead,
:26:38. > :26:43.and somewhere behind, and I think is Michael rightly shows... You are
:26:44. > :26:46.behind in most of them. This is a snapshot and we have a year in which
:26:47. > :26:50.the economy is going to be improving, and we have a year to say
:26:51. > :26:55.to those candidates that are fighting those key seats, look, just
:26:56. > :27:05.around the corner people are ahead in the same kind of seat as you and
:27:06. > :27:07.we need to redouble our efforts. The Tory brand is dying in major parts
:27:08. > :27:11.of the country, you are the walking dead in Scotland, and now London,
:27:12. > :27:21.huge chunks of London are becoming a no-go zone for you. That's not true
:27:22. > :27:26.with regard to the northern seats. Tell me what seats you have? In
:27:27. > :27:32.terms of councillors we are the largest party in local government.
:27:33. > :27:38.After four years in power... You are smiling but no political party has
:27:39. > :27:43.ever done that. You haven't got a single councillor in the great city
:27:44. > :27:49.of Manchester. We have councillors in Bradford and Leeds, we have
:27:50. > :27:55.more... You haven't got an MP in any of the big cities? We have more
:27:56. > :27:59.councillors in the north of England than Labour. A quarter of those who
:28:00. > :28:04.say they would vote UKIP and did vote UKIP supported the Tories at
:28:05. > :28:10.the last election. Why are so many of your 2010 voters now so
:28:11. > :28:15.disillusioned? Any election will bring a degree of churning, and we
:28:16. > :28:18.hope to get as many back as we can, but we also want to get Liberal
:28:19. > :28:24.Democrats, people who voted for the Lib Dems and the Labour Party. If we
:28:25. > :28:29.concentrate on one part of the electorate, then we won't take power
:28:30. > :28:34.and I believe we will because I believe we represent a wide spectrum
:28:35. > :28:39.of opinion in this country and I believe that delivering a long-term
:28:40. > :28:43.economic plan, delivering prosperity into people 's pockets will be felt.
:28:44. > :28:47.On the basis of the local election results, you would not pick up a
:28:48. > :28:56.single Labour seat in the general election. You make the point that it
:28:57. > :29:04.is about local elections. Seats that Labour should have taken from us
:29:05. > :29:08.they didn't, which is important... I am asking what possible Labour seat
:29:09. > :29:12.you would hope to win after the results on Thursday. Local elections
:29:13. > :29:17.are local elections. The national election will have a much bigger
:29:18. > :29:23.turnout, it will be one year from now, we will be able to demonstrate
:29:24. > :29:26.to the population that the trends we are seeing already in terms of the
:29:27. > :29:31.success of our long-term economic plan, they will be feeling that in
:29:32. > :29:37.their pockets. People need to feel secure about their jobs and feel
:29:38. > :29:40.that their children have a future. Maybe so many of your people are
:29:41. > :29:44.defecting to UKIP because on issues that they really care about like
:29:45. > :29:55.mass immigration, you don't keep your promises.
:29:56. > :30:00.We have reduced immigration and the amount of pull factors. Let me give
:30:01. > :30:07.you the figures. You have said a couple of things are not true. You
:30:08. > :30:13.promised to cut net immigration to under 100,000 by 2015, last year it
:30:14. > :30:19.rose by 50,000, 212,000. You have broken your promise. We still intend
:30:20. > :30:25.to reduce the amount from non-EU countries. I want to be clear, I
:30:26. > :30:29.have no problem with people coming here who want to work and pay their
:30:30. > :30:36.national insurance and tax, to help fund the health service. What I have
:30:37. > :30:41.objection to our people coming here to get the additional benefits. You
:30:42. > :30:49.made the promise. It is our intention to deliver it. People
:30:50. > :30:54.defect to UKIP because mainstream politicians to -- like yourself do
:30:55. > :30:58.not give straight answers. Can you be straight, you will not hit your
:30:59. > :31:04.immigration target by the election, correct? We will announce measures
:31:05. > :31:10.that. People factor. Will you hit your target? It is a year from now,
:31:11. > :31:19.it is our intention to move towards the target. Is it your intention, do
:31:20. > :31:23.you say you will hit your target of under 100,000 net migration by the
:31:24. > :31:29.election? We will do our damnedest. But you will not make it. I do not
:31:30. > :31:34.know that to be fact. They also vote UKIP cos they do not trust you and
:31:35. > :31:38.Europe, David Cameron has promised a referendum, he has vowed to resign
:31:39. > :31:44.if he does not deliver one, but still your voters vote for UKIP.
:31:45. > :31:53.There were reasons why people voted for UKIP. A great deal of anger
:31:54. > :31:56.about the political system, about the Metropolitan elite that they see
:31:57. > :32:01.running programmes like this and the political programmes. We need to
:32:02. > :32:11.listen to their concerns and address them. David Cameron has got a better
:32:12. > :32:17.record on delivery. He vetoed a treaty, he stopped us having to bail
:32:18. > :32:23.out the currency. Why are you likely to convert a night in the European
:32:24. > :32:28.elections? If you do come third, it will show they do not trust you on
:32:29. > :32:34.Europe. Next year, we will face a general election, about having money
:32:35. > :32:41.in people's pockets, about who will run the country. David Davis wants
:32:42. > :32:44.to China and get the voters to trust the Tories on the referendum, he was
:32:45. > :32:52.the pledge to be brought forward to 2016. He is a clever guy. But if you
:32:53. > :32:57.are going to try to negotiate a better deal to give the population a
:32:58. > :33:04.better choice, you cannot do that in a year, you will require two years.
:33:05. > :33:11.You are an Essex MP, you know about Essex people, it must be depressing
:33:12. > :33:16.that they are now voting for UKIP. I do not have any UKIP in my
:33:17. > :33:21.constituency. I felt bad to see Basildon go down and to see the
:33:22. > :33:29.leader go down. Do you know why that is? The Tory party does not resonate
:33:30. > :33:33.with the Essex people in the way that the Margaret Thatcher party
:33:34. > :33:37.did. That is why you did not get a majority in 2010 and why you will
:33:38. > :33:44.not win in 2015. We need to connect better. They will want to know about
:33:45. > :33:51.their children's future, will they have a job, a good education? When
:33:52. > :33:55.it comes to electing a national government, they do not want to see
:33:56. > :34:01.Ed Miliband in office. They are voting for Nigel Farage. In terms of
:34:02. > :34:07.what government you get, do you want to see David Cameron in number ten
:34:08. > :34:11.or Ed Miliband? Essex will want to see David Cameron. You only got 36%
:34:12. > :34:19.of the vote four years ago, your party, occurs you did not get the
:34:20. > :34:24.Essex people in the same numbers, like John Major or Margaret Thatcher
:34:25. > :34:31.did. You need more than 36% in 2015 to win the election. On Thursday,
:34:32. > :34:39.your share was 29%. We were 2% behind Labour. They did not do very
:34:40. > :34:46.well either. A year before, -- a year before the election in 1997,
:34:47. > :34:53.they were on 43%. It is highly deliver the votes. We have a
:34:54. > :34:56.campaign looking at the marginals. We know exactly where we are not
:34:57. > :35:01.doing as well as we should be. I am a big fan of Michael Ashcroft. Do
:35:02. > :35:05.you think he does this to be helpful? He is a great man and a
:35:06. > :35:12.good conservative, I am a good friend of his. I think that his
:35:13. > :35:17.publication was one of the best things that happened to the party.
:35:18. > :35:24.You got 36% of the vote last time, you are down to 29, you need 38 or
:35:25. > :35:33.39, you would get that if you had a pact with UKIP. There will be no
:35:34. > :35:37.pact. I am a Democrat. It is like a market stall, you should put your
:35:38. > :35:42.policies out there and you should not try to fix the market. Would you
:35:43. > :35:54.stop a local pact? There will be no pact with UKIP. None.
:35:55. > :35:59.It has just gone 11:35am. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland and
:36:00. > :36:04.Northern Ireland. Coming up here, we will speak to the
:36:05. > :36:16.Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics coordinator Paddy Ashdown. First,
:36:17. > :36:21.Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics East, I'm Etholle George. We're in
:36:22. > :36:23.Chelmsford, in Essex, where here, tonight, they'll announce the
:36:24. > :36:29.European election results for the eastern region. But the local
:36:30. > :36:36.election counts are over and a new political picture has emerged.
:36:37. > :36:43.Labour joy as their efforts are rewarded. After 18 years, the party
:36:44. > :36:48.takes control in Cambridge. And UKIP surge in the east, putting them
:36:49. > :36:51.firmly on our political map. It was the most dramatic election for many
:36:52. > :36:55.years and there was no doubt it was UKIP's night. They exceeded their
:36:56. > :36:58.own expectations, particularly in Essex, where they took 11 seat in
:36:59. > :37:01.Basildon, another five in neighbouring Castle Point, five more
:37:02. > :37:11.in Southend and another five in Harlow, where Labour's majority is
:37:12. > :37:12.down to one. In the 20 councils that held elections across the east,
:37:13. > :37:18.UKIP's tally rose from ten to 58. held elections across the east,
:37:19. > :37:22.UKIP's tally rose from ten That is a gain of 48 seats, so they won almost
:37:23. > :37:31.14% of the seats up for grabs this time. And seats won for the UK
:37:32. > :37:33.Independence Party pushed all these councils into no overall control.
:37:34. > :37:36.And UKIP's success was largely at the expense of the Conservatives,
:37:37. > :37:38.who were in control of the majority of those councils.
:37:39. > :37:40.councils into no overall control. And UKIP's success was largely The
:37:41. > :37:47.Tories were hit hard, losing 51 seats this time. 35 of those to
:37:48. > :37:50.UKIP. As well as losing the Essex councils, the Conservatives no
:37:51. > :38:00.longer run Milton Keynes and lost control in Peterborough. The upsurge
:38:01. > :38:03.of support for UKIP is really about immigration and the European Union,
:38:04. > :38:06.as a result of the legend being the same day as the European election.
:38:07. > :38:10.And also some unfortunate decisions made by the city council, which have
:38:11. > :38:13.proved unpopular. That combination has meant that people have, to a
:38:14. > :38:18.certain extent, voted a protest vote. Meanwhile, the Lib Dems
:38:19. > :38:23.suffered and are down by 24 seats in the east. But it wasn't all bad. The
:38:24. > :38:28.Essex stronghold of Colchester stood firm. The Lib Dems lost only one
:38:29. > :38:30.seat there and they gained councillors in Brentwood, pushing
:38:31. > :38:49.another Conservative council into no overall control. The Green Party
:38:50. > :38:52.tally was down by one, although they did win a by`election in Suffolk.
:38:53. > :38:55.But in Norwich, they won all five of the seats they were defending in the
:38:56. > :38:59.face of a tough campaign from Labour. So what kind of an election
:39:00. > :39:02.was it for them? Let's take a closer look at Labour. They did make
:39:03. > :39:07.advances across the region, but in all, the party only gained 19 new
:39:08. > :39:10.councillors, compared to UKIP's 48. Once again, it was UKIP that stole
:39:11. > :39:13.their thunder, as Andrew Sinclair now reports.
:39:14. > :39:15.In many respects, this was a good election for Labour. They took
:39:16. > :39:19.control of Cambridge for the first time in 18 years. Well, we have won
:39:20. > :39:22.six seats, that is the biggest number we have won since the General
:39:23. > :39:25.Election. They took control of Milton Keynes. We have really made
:39:26. > :39:32.some real inroads into the Tory majorities and now we are the
:39:33. > :39:36.biggest party in the council. They saw the numbers go up in Ipswich and
:39:37. > :39:39.Stevenage and their vote stayed strong in Norwich. We have had
:39:40. > :39:42.activists who have been out all year round on the doorstep, listening to
:39:43. > :39:45.people and this vote has said, yes, you have got it right, carry on.
:39:46. > :39:49.Then in other Labour heartlands, it all seemed to go horribly wrong. In
:39:50. > :39:52.Great Yarmouth, the party lost overall control of the council after
:39:53. > :39:59.UKIP came from nowhere to gain ten seats. In Harlow, five UKIP gains
:40:00. > :40:02.reduced the Labour majority to one. In Basildon, they were hoping for
:40:03. > :40:09.big gains but instead, Labour went backwards. It has now got fewer
:40:10. > :40:12.seats on the council than UKIP. I think they see in us something they
:40:13. > :40:16.want to hear, they want to believe in and I think they want change, as
:40:17. > :40:19.I have said before. The Conservatives and the other major
:40:20. > :40:24.parties are not listening and it is not a flash in the pan. I think come
:40:25. > :40:31.2015, we are going to wipe the floor. With 48 UKIP gains and just
:40:32. > :40:37.19 Labour once, there are many in the party that are asking what went
:40:38. > :40:39.wrong in the East? A character like Nigel Farage bouncing around the
:40:40. > :40:42.country, making all kinds of comments that people have been by,
:40:43. > :40:46.frankly, and in the next year, when I hope the people will be thoughtful
:40:47. > :40:54.and we do a better job at getting our message across. ``that people
:40:55. > :40:57.have been beguiled by, frankly. These results are significant
:40:58. > :41:00.because they confirm what activists have been finding on the doorsteps
:41:01. > :41:03.of the last ten months which is that, as well as winning over Tory
:41:04. > :41:08.supporters, UKIP is no winning over Labour supporters. `` is now winning
:41:09. > :41:11.over Labour supporters. And that could have big consequences for the
:41:12. > :41:15.party here in the east as it approaches the next General
:41:16. > :41:17.Election. Labour campaigned hard in these elections, sending more big
:41:18. > :41:23.names to visit the region than any other party. If it wants to form the
:41:24. > :41:26.next Government, it needs to win between eight and a dozen seats in
:41:27. > :41:30.the east. These elections were supposed to show they were on course
:41:31. > :41:33.to do that. We have got to start listening to people. And people feel
:41:34. > :41:37.they have not been listened to by the main political parties and we
:41:38. > :41:42.need to do much more in that regard. We need to earn people's confidence
:41:43. > :41:46.again. Labour is divided about what to read into these results.
:41:47. > :41:49.Privately, many activists have told me they are worried and they think
:41:50. > :41:53.the leadership needs to adjust its message. But those at the top of the
:41:54. > :41:57.regional party are, publicly at least, saying don't panic. Let's not
:41:58. > :42:03.overplay what UKIP has achieved. It is a protest vote. This is a party
:42:04. > :42:06.that is made up of a rag`tag and book tail of people, some of whom
:42:07. > :42:09.have very unsavoury pasts, being elected as councillors here in Great
:42:10. > :42:12.Yarmouth, against a council that has put right some of the problems with
:42:13. > :42:19.the finances and the management in one single year. I'm delighted
:42:20. > :42:22.Labour is still the top party here. The UKIP leader didn't waste time to
:42:23. > :42:27.come to Essex to celebrate his party's victory. Was this just a
:42:28. > :42:30.protest vote or a wake`up call for Labour? And given the scale of the
:42:31. > :42:41.damage, can the party really afford to do nothing?
:42:42. > :42:46.To discuss that, I am joined by the Luton North MP Kelvin Hopkins, for
:42:47. > :42:49.Labour. The MP pummelled in Essex, John Whittingdale, the
:42:50. > :42:56.Conservatives. Cambridgeshire Councillor Peter Reid, fo UKIP, and
:42:57. > :43:00.the Lib Dem councillor for Colchester, Sir Bob Russell. Let's
:43:01. > :43:06.talk about some of the things we heard, it is not just the Tories,
:43:07. > :43:13.but also Labour who are using losing out to UKIP. They have to see that
:43:14. > :43:21.Labour won 338 extra seats, so we did very well. Not as well as UKIP.
:43:22. > :43:29.Not as well as UKIP in this region, but in parts we did extremely well.
:43:30. > :43:35.So are you claiming a victory? If we win 338 and the Lib Dems and the
:43:36. > :43:40.tourism between them lost 500, that is something of a victory. John
:43:41. > :43:45.Whittingdale, it was expected to be a bad night that the Conservatives,
:43:46. > :43:49.it was pretty terrible, wasn't it? It was pretty close to terrible. We
:43:50. > :43:54.knew it was going to be a bad night, this was a European election and
:43:55. > :43:58.people wanted to send us a message. To be fair, this is was a European
:43:59. > :44:05.election but we are talking about local elections. The two came on the
:44:06. > :44:08.same day and a lot of people voted UKIP who I know previously supported
:44:09. > :44:14.me and wanted to send us a message, and it is what we got clearly.
:44:15. > :44:20.Peter, what about UKIP councillors? UKIP has done very well but, as a
:44:21. > :44:23.party, how effective can you be at a local council level? You don't have
:44:24. > :44:28.a party whip, there is no party line, so how will you get people to
:44:29. > :44:32.agree? We did very well with the county councillors last year, we
:44:33. > :44:36.gained 147 seats. That was an earthquake in itself and this year,
:44:37. > :44:40.we have outstripped better game, and everybody said, when I was the only
:44:41. > :44:44.councillor in the East of England UKIP, we are not relevant info pack
:44:45. > :44:48.the post`elections or local government, and yet we have proven
:44:49. > :44:53.we have the highest attendance record of any party, we stopped the
:44:54. > :44:56.incinerator that people didn't want in Norfolk and then in Essex, we are
:44:57. > :45:02.making huge progress in changing the way things are. Norfolk and
:45:03. > :45:06.Cambridgeshire county council is, we have moved from the cabinet system
:45:07. > :45:13.to a committee system, bringing democracy back to local government.
:45:14. > :45:16.UKIP is making massive inroads into changing the system and making
:45:17. > :45:20.decisions on the ground. Last night was a huge success but the only big
:45:21. > :45:26.success is the Tory spin doctors, who seem to be Saivet David Cameron,
:45:27. > :45:29.but we know for a fact that `` saving David Cameron, but we never
:45:30. > :45:34.about that if he is still the leader going into the General Election,
:45:35. > :45:37.UKIP will cost them a lot of damage. I want to bring Sir Bob Russell into
:45:38. > :45:44.the conversation. Colchester State and Main stronghold but overall,
:45:45. > :45:48.every election we have come in your party is losing out. Across England,
:45:49. > :45:51.there are patchy results. It is fascinating to see a great city like
:45:52. > :45:54.Norwich without a single Conservative councillor. You
:45:55. > :45:59.mentioned Colchester, where the Liberal Democrats in four years have
:46:00. > :46:08.only lost one borough seat. But you are down by 24 seeds in the East
:46:09. > :46:12.overall. That reinforces the patchy results. In Colchester, it is
:46:13. > :46:17.reinforce and 15 miles up the road in Ipswich, Labour have strengthened
:46:18. > :46:24.their vote. Brentwood, the Liberal Democrats took two seats from the
:46:25. > :46:27.Conservatives in the Secretary of State's home town, so it is bringing
:46:28. > :46:31.a lot of interesting results. One last thing, only one third of the
:46:32. > :46:36.electorate voted on Thursday and the General Election will be at least
:46:37. > :46:41.double. John Whittingdale, I want to keep it fairly local, but let's come
:46:42. > :46:47.back to what Peter Reed said about David Cameron. Does it call his
:46:48. > :46:50.leader ship into question? Absolutely no question that he is
:46:51. > :46:53.the leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister and will be set
:46:54. > :46:57.at the next General Election. David Cameron has a record we can be proud
:46:58. > :47:02.of, he is delivering a lot of things which people in this area want to
:47:03. > :47:08.see, controls on immigration. He was the only person who will develop ``
:47:09. > :47:12.deliver a referendum on Europe. It is the only way to get a referendum
:47:13. > :47:16.on whether we should stay in Europe, collecting a Conservative
:47:17. > :47:19.government. It looks now like the economy is doing well but if you
:47:20. > :47:24.cannot win votes when the economy is doing well, when can you? I very
:47:25. > :47:28.much at the General Election will show a different picture. We knew
:47:29. > :47:31.people wanted to send a message on Thursday... The people we have heard
:47:32. > :47:38.from say it is more than sending a message, a back whatever UKIP is
:47:39. > :47:42.saying, it is resonating with them. The election on Thursday was under a
:47:43. > :47:49.system where it was possible to elect UKIP MVPs or Green MEPs, and
:47:50. > :47:52.that will not be the case in the General Election. It will be a
:47:53. > :47:55.choice between Ed Miliband and David Cameron, they are the only two
:47:56. > :48:02.options and people, I believe, will support the Conservative Party. Bob
:48:03. > :48:05.Russell? Constituency by constituency, you will have to
:48:06. > :48:09.accept that there are parts of the country where the Liberal Democrats
:48:10. > :48:12.will be pivotal in the outcome of the General Election, because there
:48:13. > :48:15.is no indication that either the Conservatives Labour are going to
:48:16. > :48:20.win the General Election and UKIP could skew some results. We will be
:48:21. > :48:24.fighting to win every seat, there will be no electoral pact with the
:48:25. > :48:29.Liberal Democrats or UKIP. As Peter himself said, UKIP could potentially
:48:30. > :48:33.do us a lot of damage. David Cameron could do you a lot of damage. That
:48:34. > :48:39.will help Ed Miliband to become Prime Minister, it cannot be what
:48:40. > :48:44.they want. John? I am optimistic about Labour chances, Ed Miliband is
:48:45. > :48:48.bringing out policies that resonate with people, the cost of living, the
:48:49. > :48:52.minimum wage, fuel prices, all sorts of things that really matter to
:48:53. > :48:58.people. And I think those policies are really going to help. Let's
:48:59. > :49:02.bring things back to the East of England. Peter, why did your
:49:03. > :49:06.anti`immigration message go down well in Essex, but in London, just
:49:07. > :49:09.across the borders, if you like, where things are much more
:49:10. > :49:15.ethnically mixed, you didn't do very well at all? I would say we did
:49:16. > :49:19.incredibly well across the country. London is a metropolitan plays,
:49:20. > :49:24.traditionally not a UKIP stronghold. Why is your message not getting
:49:25. > :49:28.through? All of the elections are very difficult and in the four`year
:49:29. > :49:32.cycle, this is a tough year for UKIP also it is the large northern
:49:33. > :49:36.metropolitans and London with the majority of the seats, where UKIP
:49:37. > :49:40.does not traditionally do well. So far as to have our best election
:49:41. > :49:45.result ever with that category, it shows how far the party has come.
:49:46. > :49:48.Looking at the split, David Cameron is doing the Conservative Party a
:49:49. > :49:51.lot of harm. The only thing he seems to be delivering its a lot of
:49:52. > :49:56.housing where people don't want it and wind farms all over the country.
:49:57. > :50:02.Yet a third of our vote is coming from Labour supporters,
:50:03. > :50:06.working`class people... I want to keep this local. Just before we
:50:07. > :50:09.start, let's talk about Harlow, Basildon, places like Great
:50:10. > :50:15.Yarmouth. You need to get these places back on track by the Labour
:50:16. > :50:18.Party. Indeed, strong working`class support their previously for Labour
:50:19. > :50:23.and some of that has gone to UKIP, undoubtedly, but Conservatives vote
:50:24. > :50:26.to beat Labour in that area. When it comes to housing, we have a
:50:27. > :50:30.desperate housing crisis and the Governor of the Bank of England says
:50:31. > :50:35.we are not building enough, we are just pumping up prices. But you need
:50:36. > :50:40.to retain the seeds, win the seat, to form a government. The polls
:50:41. > :50:44.yesterday suggest the target seat, there is a massive swing to Labour
:50:45. > :50:48.and we will win those seats, I am sure, and some of these seats that
:50:49. > :50:54.voted to an extent for UKIP will come back to Labour, because
:50:55. > :50:59.what... Academics are showing, research shows that at least 60% of
:51:00. > :51:03.people that voted for us in the European election intend to vote for
:51:04. > :51:11.UKIP in the General Election. That trend is growing. 2013, we got 13%.
:51:12. > :51:14.Now we have just got 28%. Sir Bob Russell, are you worried about
:51:15. > :51:21.momentum or a lack of it for the Liberal Democrats in the East? Well,
:51:22. > :51:28.I think about the whole country, where we are dug in, we are dug in.
:51:29. > :51:34.Is that good enough? You should be gaining ground, you are in
:51:35. > :51:38.government now. We would prefer to be gaining ground but we have to
:51:39. > :51:41.accept the facts and the junior member of a coalition government has
:51:42. > :51:45.had to take a lot of difficult decisions, meaning we have been
:51:46. > :51:48.affected disproportionately, I would say, but without the Liberal
:51:49. > :51:52.Democrats in the coalition government, we would not have had
:51:53. > :51:55.the economic success the country has had. We have gone back to Labour's
:51:56. > :51:59.wasteful years under the Labour government. The Liberal Democrats
:52:00. > :52:06.had a choice four years ago, to stay in permanent opposition ought to do
:52:07. > :52:10.what we say we could do `` couldn't do, work with other parties in
:52:11. > :52:13.government. We are now starting the fifth year of a coalition government
:52:14. > :52:17.with the economy on the mend and the Lib Dems can claim a fair amount of
:52:18. > :52:22.credit for that. John Whittingdale, what about these Tories who have
:52:23. > :52:29.deserted the party? How confident are you take will come back? I'm
:52:30. > :52:37.very much confident they will come back. UKIP had elected MVPs in the
:52:38. > :52:40.last European elections `` MEP, but they didn't come close to the
:52:41. > :52:44.General Election. But we have to work harder to get the message
:52:45. > :52:47.across on issues like Europe, immigration, the economy, those are
:52:48. > :52:50.issues that a Conservative government are going to deliver on
:52:51. > :52:56.and only the Conservative government will give them controls they are
:52:57. > :53:00.looking for. Peter, will your policies stand up in a General
:53:01. > :53:05.Election? Absolutely and we will roll them out in the build`up to
:53:06. > :53:09.next May. What about things like scrapping European employment laws?
:53:10. > :53:14.Privatising the health service? Will people be on board? There is a lot
:53:15. > :53:19.of spin and a lot of lives. How can there be lights when the policy is
:53:20. > :53:23.not clear? We are building up for a General Election and saving the best
:53:24. > :53:29.policy launches until closer to the date. But we will be rolling them
:53:30. > :53:31.out. The real facts are is that UKIP has won the first past the post
:53:32. > :53:34.elections, when all of the politicians in this room and
:53:35. > :53:38.elsewhere said we could not do it. The facts are that UKIP will
:53:39. > :53:41.probably come first in a number of votes tonight in the European
:53:42. > :53:46.elections, beating the Government for a second time. We keep being
:53:47. > :53:54.told that UKIP doesn't have the answers by the metropolitan elite
:53:55. > :53:58.but the public are saying we do. UKIP is a far right party, very much
:53:59. > :54:05.to the right, setting aside a referendum I support, I have
:54:06. > :54:09.belonged to People's Choice, a referendum party and I hope Labour
:54:10. > :54:17.changes its view on that, but setting that aside...
:54:18. > :54:22.Are people confused by the party's messages question mark I don't think
:54:23. > :54:26.so, we have very clear messages about standards of living.
:54:27. > :54:31.You are saying immigration is good and the next time, we have to crack
:54:32. > :54:36.down. On Question Time last night, it was moving closer towards the
:54:37. > :54:42.movement back with a late position we need, free movement, and I agree
:54:43. > :54:47.with her. We need to learn the lessons of the 20th century. We will
:54:48. > :54:51.come back to you all very shortly. There is still, of course, more to
:54:52. > :54:54.come. Tonight's European election results for the Eastern region will
:54:55. > :55:00.be declared in this very hall after 10pm. We already know that the
:55:01. > :55:05.turnout is 36.2%. Interestingly, slightly down from 37 points 7% last
:55:06. > :55:09.time. If you are in Northamptonshire, you will be
:55:10. > :55:16.electing an MEP V is evidence and in Milton Keynes, you voted for a MEP
:55:17. > :55:20.in the south`east. `` a MEP. Voting starts around 4pm. With all of
:55:21. > :55:26.details about what happens next, here is the man that will declare
:55:27. > :55:29.the Eastern results tonight. During the evening, I will be contacting
:55:30. > :55:33.all of those count centres to ensure things are going smoothly. Sometime
:55:34. > :55:36.around 8:30pm to 9:30pm, we suspect some of those will be ready to have
:55:37. > :55:40.provisional figures and they will be contacting us with those figures.
:55:41. > :55:46.We're not allowed to release those figures to candidates or agents,
:55:47. > :55:51.though, at that time. We have to wait until after ten o'clock before
:55:52. > :55:55.any such figures can be released. So we'll be working it out as the votes
:55:56. > :55:59.come in from all of those 47 areas, under the D'Hondt system, which
:56:00. > :56:04.candidates are going through. D'Hondt is a proportional system.
:56:05. > :56:08.Each of the parties get allocated their votes across the region and we
:56:09. > :56:15.then take the party with the most votes, that gets the first seat.
:56:16. > :56:19.Then we divide that total by two. Then we take a look at the votes
:56:20. > :56:22.again, so all the other parties will have their votes carried forward,
:56:23. > :56:27.and we keep allocating the seats until we have the seven seats in our
:56:28. > :56:29.region allocated. We are not allowed to talk to anybody about those
:56:30. > :56:32.provisional results until after ten o'clock, because that is what the
:56:33. > :56:34.European Parliament has determined. So sometime after ten, assuming
:56:35. > :56:37.everything has gone smoothly, I'll be talking to candidates and agents
:56:38. > :56:40.and saying, "These are the provisional figures, are you content
:56:41. > :56:43.with the process, you have seen what has happened in our count centre,
:56:44. > :56:47.you have seen what has happened around the region,". And all being
:56:48. > :56:54.well, soon after that, I'll be able to make the announcements.
:56:55. > :56:59.Just a quick prediction from all of you about tonight. How far do you
:57:00. > :57:05.think UKIP can go? I think UKIP vote is going to shoot up wildly. The
:57:06. > :57:09.D'Hondt system means seats do not change hands readily, so we will
:57:10. > :57:14.probably see in the is a very stable set of seat allocation, but the UKIP
:57:15. > :57:20.vote Pigott will shoot up, the real indicator of change. John
:57:21. > :57:23.Whittingdale, are you preparing a disappointment? We always knew
:57:24. > :57:28.tonight would be difficult, polls have shown that for some time, but
:57:29. > :57:31.we have a year to go and our job is to convince people to come back to
:57:32. > :57:36.the Conservative Party who have supported us in the past, because
:57:37. > :57:42.only we can deliver what they want I `` I believe the result will be
:57:43. > :57:47.different in a year's line. Across the European Union, you will see the
:57:48. > :57:51.wind is to the left and I think the results across Europe are going to
:57:52. > :57:54.be very interesting this time. I think support, my critical view of
:57:55. > :58:00.the European Union from a left standing point of view. Sir Bob
:58:01. > :58:05.Russell, real fears that Lib Dems could be left without a MEP? I hope
:58:06. > :58:10.it is not true. Andrew Dove deserves to be re`elected to represent the
:58:11. > :58:14.East of England and he has been a hard`working MEP, it would be a
:58:15. > :58:18.tragedy if he loses his seat. The one thing I want to do in the next
:58:19. > :58:24.year in Westminster is to try and get the Government to bring
:58:25. > :58:27.20th`century history in Europe into the curriculum, because quite
:58:28. > :58:32.frankly, what we are seeing now, we have forgotten what happened in the
:58:33. > :58:36.last century. Two European World Wars, the disintegration, millions
:58:37. > :58:40.of lives lost and the European Union has helped preserve peace in our
:58:41. > :58:47.part of the world. We have to leave it there, everybody, thank you.
:58:48. > :58:50.Apologies, we did have some loss of sound at the beginning of the
:58:51. > :58:54.programme, so we apologise for that. Now, for all of the latest European
:58:55. > :59:00.election results, we will be live tonight from 9pm on the BBC News
:59:01. > :59:05.Channel and on BBC One from 11pm, we will be here, covering the results,
:59:06. > :59:07.a full round`up on tomorrow's Look East,
:59:08. > :59:12.deported. We should also review the benefits system to make it
:59:13. > :59:17.contributory. Thank you. With that, back to you, Andrew.
:59:18. > :59:26.Welcome back. Mutterings among Lib Dems about Nick Clegg's leaderships,
:59:27. > :59:31.as we reported at the top of the show, and tonight it could get even
:59:32. > :59:38.worse when we get the results of the European elections. Paddy Ashdown,
:59:39. > :59:41.former Lib Dem leader, joins me now from our Westminster studio.
:59:42. > :59:49.Something has to change for the Lib Dems, if Nick Clegg isn't the change
:59:50. > :00:01.what will it be? The messages we have about reducing tax on the
:00:02. > :00:06.poorest, they now have traction. We have been on many programmes of this
:00:07. > :00:11.sort before, this idea that has been put about by these people who are
:00:12. > :00:15.calling for a leadership election is the silliest idea I have heard in my
:00:16. > :00:21.political career. It is not serious politics. This is the moment when we
:00:22. > :00:24.need to get out with a really good message and campaign through the
:00:25. > :00:31.summer in the context of the general election. Spending it on a divisive
:00:32. > :00:38.leadership contest is ridiculous. At the very moment when our sacrifices
:00:39. > :00:49.are beginning to gain traction, we turn in on ourselves. The question
:00:50. > :00:52.is, can the Liberal Democrats hack being in government? If we were to
:00:53. > :00:59.take this step, the anther would be no, and that would damage the party
:01:00. > :01:04.forever. It is clearly a problem, you have had to come out and defend
:01:05. > :01:09.Nick Clegg, we have not even had the European election results yet. It
:01:10. > :01:15.could get even worse by midnight. I have been up here anyway, to argue
:01:16. > :01:23.the party's case in the context of tonight. Let me try to put this in
:01:24. > :01:31.scale. We have a website which people can join to show their ascent
:01:32. > :01:33.to the fact that they like cake, it is called Liberal Democrats like
:01:34. > :01:39.cake, it has more people signed up than this website that is calling
:01:40. > :01:46.for a leadership election. Something like 200, of course this happens
:01:47. > :01:51.from time to time, the wonder is you are talking -- you are taking it
:01:52. > :01:56.seriously. Your colleagues are taking it seriously, including
:01:57. > :02:01.sitting MPs. People trot out a list of achievements that the party would
:02:02. > :02:07.like to be associated with, he began doing just that, but you have been
:02:08. > :02:11.doing that for months, if not for over a year, your ratings in the
:02:12. > :02:15.polls are terrible, you had a terrible local election, and you
:02:16. > :02:20.will probably have a terrible European election. It will cut
:02:21. > :02:24.through much better in the context of an election, we have been talking
:02:25. > :02:30.about the European elections. We have been here a long time, let me
:02:31. > :02:36.take you back, we have had tough times, in 1989, we came last in
:02:37. > :02:43.every constituency in Britain, save one, behind the Green party. One or
:02:44. > :02:50.two voices said, you have got to ditch the leader, me, you had one of
:02:51. > :02:55.them on earlier, John Hemmings, as I recall. One or two said we had to
:02:56. > :02:58.change course, but we stood our ground, and in the general election
:02:59. > :03:05.we not only re-established our position from a base of almost
:03:06. > :03:09.nothing, we laid the basis and foundation for doubling our seats in
:03:10. > :03:15.1997. That is what the party can do, they have a great message, and
:03:16. > :03:22.insert of wasting the summer and autumn on a leadership contest, we
:03:23. > :03:27.should be doing that. Nick Clegg had two opportunities to put part of
:03:28. > :03:34.that message across in the debate over Europe, but the party poll
:03:35. > :03:40.ratings fell after that. What Nick elected us to try to fill a vacuum
:03:41. > :03:49.of antique European rhetoric. And he lost. He could not change the best
:03:50. > :03:52.part of a generation of anti-European propaganda in a couple
:03:53. > :03:59.of performances? He lost the second debate more than the first. It is a
:04:00. > :04:06.long-term programme. Nick Clegg had the courage to take us into
:04:07. > :04:13.government. He took that decision before the party and gained 75, 80%
:04:14. > :04:20.support in a democratic vote. He has led the party with outstanding
:04:21. > :04:23.judgement. He has showed almost incredible grace under fire, being
:04:24. > :04:28.attacked from all sides, because some people hate the coalition, and
:04:29. > :04:31.he has the courage to do what no other Liberal Democrat leader has
:04:32. > :04:38.done, to stand up before the British people and say unequivocally, we are
:04:39. > :04:43.in favour of Europe. He is a man of courage, integrity, decency, he is
:04:44. > :04:48.one of the best prime ministers Britain has not got. In the context
:04:49. > :04:53.of a general election, that will go through. I am devoted to the man, he
:04:54. > :04:59.can do amazingly well in the general election. But he is losing local
:05:00. > :05:04.elections again and again, the European elections, and he is on
:05:05. > :05:09.track to lose the general election. European elections are not easy for
:05:10. > :05:18.us. Whatever happens tomorrow morning, it will not be bad -- as
:05:19. > :05:23.bad as 1989. We have had that line. In the context of a general
:05:24. > :05:27.election, we fought our way back, this time, we have been in
:05:28. > :05:31.government, we start from a higher base, we have a message to tell
:05:32. > :05:35.about how we alone have taken the tough decisions to get this country
:05:36. > :05:40.out of the worst economic mess it has ever seen, left to us by the
:05:41. > :05:45.Labour Party. We can go out in the context of a general election and
:05:46. > :05:48.fight for that. My guess is that the resurgence of the party in the
:05:49. > :05:57.context of a general election will be far greater than you are
:05:58. > :06:04.suggesting. We have done the Liberal Democrats,
:06:05. > :06:08.that move onto the other parties. How bad a leadership problem does Ed
:06:09. > :06:13.Miliband have? He has a continuation of a problem he has had for a long
:06:14. > :06:16.time. The Labour Party thought they had a soft lead, and they have the
:06:17. > :06:21.same situation, everybody is hanging on. They have to make a
:06:22. > :06:28.breakthrough. The big thing is that lots of people at Shadow Cabinet
:06:29. > :06:31.wish they had taken on UKIP, why was Labour turning its fire on the
:06:32. > :06:36.Liberal Democrats? They should have been taking on UKIP, and UKIP taken
:06:37. > :06:43.seats from them, such as in Rotherham. They have finally woken
:06:44. > :06:47.up. I think there is a class war breaking out, the northerners have
:06:48. > :06:54.taken against Ed Miliband and the Metropolitan sophisticates around
:06:55. > :07:00.them... One Labour MP has said, we do not want these guacamole eating
:07:01. > :07:07.people from North London! A number doing that. They wanted to take the
:07:08. > :07:13.fight to UKIP, because UKIP is getting working-class, Northern
:07:14. > :07:17.Labour votes. John Mann said it was ridiculous that the Labour Party did
:07:18. > :07:21.not put posters in the North of England to say that Nigel Farage
:07:22. > :07:28.regarded Margaret Thatcher as his heroine. But in a funny way, those
:07:29. > :07:31.Northern Labour MPs are speaking for the South, because the Labour Party
:07:32. > :07:35.will only win the general election if it takes back those seats in the
:07:36. > :07:39.south, the south-east, a couple of seats in the south-west that Tony
:07:40. > :07:46.Blair in 1997, and they acknowledge that. It is important to say they
:07:47. > :07:54.did win the local elections, they got 31%, but that was only to bustle
:07:55. > :07:59.-- two points hang-up the Conservatives. Neil Kinnock got 38%
:08:00. > :08:04.in 1991, the year before John Major got the largest in of votes ever.
:08:05. > :08:09.There is unease in the shadow cabinet about why Ed Miliband did
:08:10. > :08:14.not take on UKIP on immigration earlier. But Ed Miliband says, we
:08:15. > :08:19.should not be calling UKIP names, we should be calling them out, and he
:08:20. > :08:22.would say he did call them out. The unease in the party has made the
:08:23. > :08:29.results worse for them than they should have been, they did pretty
:08:30. > :08:33.well on Thursday. Although UKIP took votes from them in safe seats, in
:08:34. > :08:41.the end, it will not make much difference. UKIP is taking votes
:08:42. > :08:46.from Tories in marginals. It made it appear that Labour have not done
:08:47. > :08:51.well. Diane Abbott was right, a lot of the Labour MPs who came out on
:08:52. > :08:55.Friday morning had been practising their lines in expectation of a
:08:56. > :09:00.disappointing result. In the north, I do not think UKIP's status of the
:09:01. > :09:04.main nonlabour right-wing party will damage Labour. If you have a
:09:05. > :09:11.majority of 25,000... But in the South and Midlands, UKIP could break
:09:12. > :09:15.the non-Tory vote in such a way as to cost Labour marginal seats that
:09:16. > :09:23.they would otherwise win. As for the Tories, look back at 2009, UKIP 116
:09:24. > :09:28.or 17% of the popular vote in the European elections and fell to 3% in
:09:29. > :09:35.the general election. You mentioned Europe, the Tories are anticipating
:09:36. > :09:39.finishing third, they did not do well on Thursday, they seem to be
:09:40. > :09:46.putting everything on Europe, we will beat UKIP in Newark. That is
:09:47. > :09:51.the line I am getting from them. The Liberal Democrats and Labour are
:09:52. > :09:58.nowhere there, they both got 20% of the vote, the Tories got 53%, a
:09:59. > :10:01.majority of 16,000. UKIP do not need to do well to have an enormous
:10:02. > :10:08.increase on last time. This seed is a referendum on Tories against UKIP,
:10:09. > :10:15.which we have not seen so far. I was there for the rocky road packed.
:10:16. > :10:21.David Cameron gave a piece of rocky road to Boris Johnson, saying, you
:10:22. > :10:29.know you want it, Boris. The Tories must be a head, because at the
:10:30. > :10:35.bakery stores, the blue buns outsold the UKIP buns.
:10:36. > :10:39.Ed Miliband bit off more than he could chew when he turned launch
:10:40. > :10:41.into a budgeted last week, but he is not the first politician to make a
:10:42. > :11:36.meal of it. I love a hot pasty, the choice was
:11:37. > :11:43.to have a small one or a large one, and I opted for the large one, and
:11:44. > :11:47.very good it was, too. The significance of the Ed Miliband
:11:48. > :11:54.business is more about the media, we can amplify nothingness, but because
:11:55. > :11:59.the narrative is that Ed Miliband is accident prone, even eating a big
:12:00. > :12:02.concern which becomes an accident. He is deemed to be weird, so we find
:12:03. > :12:08.pictures that support the conclusion. It is a class issue, you
:12:09. > :12:15.reveal your social class by what you eat, what supermarket you go to. You
:12:16. > :12:20.can play somebody accurately. Politicians are largely of a
:12:21. > :12:24.different class from the voters, and as soon as you ask them about food,
:12:25. > :12:29.it becomes apparent. To thine own self be true, David Cameron
:12:30. > :12:34.pretending he was interested in Cornish pasties, he does the cooking
:12:35. > :12:39.at the weekend, lots of posh food, do not pretend to be something you
:12:40. > :12:44.are not. The problem for Ed Miliband with that picture, he has some
:12:45. > :12:49.abnormal people working for him, but what he does not have is a broadcast
:12:50. > :12:54.person who can spot those pictures. George Osborne hired Theo Rogers
:12:55. > :13:00.from the BBC, she has transformed... She may have been
:13:01. > :13:06.guilty of the burger, but she has transformed his image on TV. That is
:13:07. > :13:10.what Ed Miliband needs. You are correct, it Ed Miliband was 15
:13:11. > :13:14.points ahead in the polls, screwing up the eating of a bacon sandwich
:13:15. > :13:20.would be seen as an endearing trait. We might not have even noticed it.
:13:21. > :13:24.That is all this week, you can get those European election results with
:13:25. > :13:30.David Dimbleby on vote went to 14 from 9pm on the BBC News Channel,
:13:31. > :13:35.and from 11pm on BBC One. No programme next week, but we are back
:13:36. > :14:12.in two weeks. If it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics.
:14:13. > :14:15.This week, Britain has voted for its Members of the European Parliament.
:14:16. > :14:23.What will the result tell us about the political mood here in Britain
:14:24. > :14:27.of the results both here and across Europe.