:00:36. > :00:41.Just two months to go until Scotland decides if it should stay
:00:42. > :00:45.As the campaign heads for the final furlong,
:00:46. > :00:49.what are the issues and arguments that will determine the result?
:00:50. > :00:52.The SNP's deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon joins me live.
:00:53. > :00:56.David Cameron's scheduled a major cabinet reshuffle on Tuesday.
:00:57. > :00:58.Many of those tipped for promotion are women.
:00:59. > :01:02.So have efforts to promote diversity in public life barely started or
:01:03. > :01:11.And don't know whether to support Germany or
:01:12. > :01:24.In the east, our offshore political guide to the World Cup.
:01:25. > :01:37.In the east, our offshore industry is holding their breath over
:01:38. > :01:40.It's World Cup final day and as usual the BBC's snagged the
:01:41. > :01:45.Yes, eat your heart out, ITV, because for top football analysis
:01:46. > :01:49.we've got Gary Lineker, Alan Hansen, and Alan Shearer.
:01:50. > :01:51.And for top political analysis you may
:01:52. > :01:56.as well tune in to them too because all we could come up with is Nick
:01:57. > :02:06.David Cameron will reshuffle his cabinet on Tuesday.
:02:07. > :02:08.The Sunday papers are full of stories telling us who'll be
:02:09. > :02:11.in and who'll be out, though they don't really know.
:02:12. > :02:14.The Mail on Sunday has one of the more eye-catching lines,
:02:15. > :02:16.reporting that former defence secretary and right-winger Liam Fox
:02:17. > :02:19.is in line for a return to the political front line.
:02:20. > :02:26.But there's general agreement that women will do well and some
:02:27. > :02:30.of the old men in suits guard will do badly.
:02:31. > :02:39.Here's senior Tory backbencher David Davis speaking to this programme.
:02:40. > :02:46.It's good to make parliament more representative.
:02:47. > :02:49.But you've got to do it in a way that doesn't create
:02:50. > :02:53.injustices, and you can't put people in a job who can't do the job.
:02:54. > :03:01.And I've seen that too over the last 20 years, people being
:03:02. > :03:03.accelerated too far too fast and they come to
:03:04. > :03:09.a screeching halt where they have to catch up with themselves.
:03:10. > :03:22.I am not going to give an example. Is this not a bit cynical? He is
:03:23. > :03:30.going to promote these women into cabinet positions, but they will not
:03:31. > :03:36.be able to do anything. I am sceptical of Cabinet reshuffle. It
:03:37. > :03:42.is an un-written pact in that the media and the government have a
:03:43. > :03:47.great interest in talking it up. The government says, haven't we
:03:48. > :03:51.refreshed ourselves? Generally it doesn't refresh the government.
:03:52. > :03:58.David Cameron wants to send out a new signal. You're going to see the
:03:59. > :04:02.old guard getting a P 45 and you will see a lot of women come in and
:04:03. > :04:09.a lot of younger men. We will find there will be a lot of resignations.
:04:10. > :04:15.A lot of, dear Prime Minister, as I told you 18 months ago, I want to
:04:16. > :04:19.move on. Because the Conservatives have this perception of not being
:04:20. > :04:24.very good with women and not being good with black and ethnic minority
:04:25. > :04:31.voters, they are going to want to do something about that. Why did he not
:04:32. > :04:37.do it before? This reshuffle might be the triumph of the a list. A lot
:04:38. > :04:42.of the women coming through the ranks have been from the a list
:04:43. > :04:46.which was a half measure because they knew they could not bring all
:04:47. > :04:52.of them in. You are going to see more women but that is a result of a
:04:53. > :04:57.long-term strategy. David Cameron is not the world's most raging
:04:58. > :05:01.feminist. He is doing this for practical reasons. He knows he has
:05:02. > :05:11.an image problem for the party and he has to solve it. He was stung by
:05:12. > :05:13.that picture of the all-male bench at Prime Minister's Questions
:05:14. > :05:19.because visibly it gave you the problem that you have been talking
:05:20. > :05:24.about. I do not think he has allowed it to be all-male since that
:05:25. > :05:27.embarrassing image. I can understand the criticism made of this approach
:05:28. > :05:34.if it was the case that all the women being promoted by talentless
:05:35. > :05:39.but you have to be very harsh to look at them and say that they would
:05:40. > :05:52.have much less to offer than the likes of Andrew Lansley. You can be
:05:53. > :05:55.pro-feminist. The tests for David Cameron is that having raised
:05:56. > :06:00.expectations he has to give them substantial jobs. They have to be
:06:01. > :06:04.given departments to run or big portfolios to carry. If they are
:06:05. > :06:09.given media campaign positions in the run-up to the election it looks
:06:10. > :06:15.perfunctorily. He is under some trouble to perhaps suggest a female
:06:16. > :06:24.commissioner to the European Union Commission. Jean-Claude Juncker has
:06:25. > :06:29.made clear that if he proposes a woman candidate they will get a
:06:30. > :06:37.better job. Saying they would like ten out of the 28 to be women. We
:06:38. > :06:43.are going to get the name of the British candidate at the same time
:06:44. > :06:49.as the reshuffle. The first face-to-face meeting, he will be
:06:50. > :06:55.able to put a name. There are other names in the frame. People like
:06:56. > :07:05.Archie Norman. That come from? His name is in the frame. There would be
:07:06. > :07:08.great scepticism of giving it to Andrew Lansley. People would think
:07:09. > :07:17.he was the man who mucked up the reform of the NHS. Who is it going
:07:18. > :07:22.to be? Either a woman or a man. I would not be surprised if they go
:07:23. > :07:28.for someone believe dynamic. Someone who would square the party. Would
:07:29. > :07:35.that not mean a by-election? It might. She is a high profile
:07:36. > :07:40.Eurosceptic. She is a very competent former banker. It would be the smart
:07:41. > :07:41.choice. I have no idea but my favourite rumour is Michael Howard.
:07:42. > :07:50.That had some legs for a while. The Mystic Megs of Fleet Street
:07:51. > :07:54.predict with confidence that the PM is going to promote more women
:07:55. > :07:56.in his cabinet reshuffle. The move can be seen as part
:07:57. > :07:59.of a move across British public life to do more to make our institutions
:08:00. > :08:02.less male and less white. But as the list
:08:03. > :08:04.of schemes to encourage diversity grows ever-longer, have we abandoned
:08:05. > :08:20.the idea of appointment by merit? Tunnelling. Hard hats, and all for
:08:21. > :08:25.new trains. It does not get more macho than the Crossrail project.
:08:26. > :08:26.When Crossrail looked at the construction industry they realise
:08:27. > :08:37.that less than 20% was made up construction industry they realise
:08:38. > :08:39.women and they asked, can we fix it? They are trying with a recruitment
:08:40. > :08:46.drive that has brought in female engineers like this woman. She even
:08:47. > :08:49.has a tunnel named after her. Having more female engineers and
:08:50. > :08:55.construction brings a bigger range of opinions, a bigger range of
:08:56. > :09:00.ideas, more diversity, into the industry, and makes it better as a
:09:01. > :09:04.whole. It is the issue being grappled in another male dominated
:09:05. > :09:07.workplace, the Cabinet. There is about to be a reach shuffle and the
:09:08. > :09:11.rumour is David Cameron is going to promote a lot of female ministers.
:09:12. > :09:17.It was a lack of promotion that annoyed Harriet Harman this week.
:09:18. > :09:21.She claimed Gordon Brown did not make her Deputy Prime Minister
:09:22. > :09:25.because she was a woman. It was strange that in a hard-fought highly
:09:26. > :09:30.contested election to be deputy leader of the Labour Party, and
:09:31. > :09:33.having won against men in the Cabinet, to succeed to be deputy
:09:34. > :09:38.leader of the Labour Party I discovered that I was not to be
:09:39. > :09:42.appointed as Deputy Prime Minister. For women in this country, no matter
:09:43. > :09:49.how able they are, the matter how hard they might work, they are still
:09:50. > :09:54.not equal. There are initiatives to make the world feel more equal. In
:09:55. > :09:58.the City the EU wants a quarter for women in the boardroom but that goal
:09:59. > :10:04.of making 40% of the top floor female. At the BBC the boss of the
:10:05. > :10:10.TV division says no panel show should ever be all-male. In the ever
:10:11. > :10:14.glamorous movie business the British film Institute announced their new
:10:15. > :10:20.thematic system to get lottery funding projects improving diversity
:10:21. > :10:27.on screen and off and helping social mobility. Employers like Crossrail
:10:28. > :10:31.are not allowed to positively discriminate but under the quality
:10:32. > :10:36.act of 2010 if two candidate for a job are just as good you are allowed
:10:37. > :10:41.to base your decision on characteristics like race, sexuality
:10:42. > :10:48.and gender. Some worry it has chipped away at the idea of hiring
:10:49. > :10:53.on merit. A woman and three men going for a job, two of the men are
:10:54. > :10:56.really good and the woman is not quite as good but she gets the job
:10:57. > :11:03.anyway. That will create injustice, a feeling that she did not deserve
:11:04. > :11:14.the job, resentment. It does not advance equality in society at all.
:11:15. > :11:17.On this project they want to leave a concrete legacy of a more diverse
:11:18. > :11:19.construction industry. The question is, what tools do you use when it
:11:20. > :11:30.comes to the rest of society? I'm joined now by
:11:31. > :11:32.Yasmin Alibhai-Brown, a columnist for the Independent,
:11:33. > :11:35.and by Munira Mirza, the deputy mayor of London responsible
:11:36. > :11:47.for education and culture. Cabinet wee shovel coming up punches
:11:48. > :11:54.though. Should David Cameron be promoting women? He is going to do
:11:55. > :12:00.it anyway. He should have a long time ago. It does not feel quite
:12:01. > :12:06.right that a few months before the election it would do the party a lot
:12:07. > :12:10.of good to be seen as a party properly reflective of the entire
:12:11. > :12:15.population. He should promote women because they are women? I think he
:12:16. > :12:17.should think about lots of different factors, whether the people he wants
:12:18. > :12:25.promote have proven themselves in their current reefs, whether they
:12:26. > :12:30.are good performers in the media, whether they represent different
:12:31. > :12:34.parts of the party, but the main principle is to promote on basis of
:12:35. > :12:38.merit. There are many talented women who fill that description. It should
:12:39. > :12:42.be that merit is the important thing rather than what you were born with.
:12:43. > :12:46.The thing about positive discrimination as it flies in the
:12:47. > :12:51.face of that kind of principle. You are shaking your head. We have
:12:52. > :12:59.always had positive discrimination. Men of a certain class have
:13:00. > :13:03.appointed in their own image because they feel most comfortable with
:13:04. > :13:06.that. We have had unspoken positive discrimination in this country and
:13:07. > :13:10.every other country throughout history. We are asking as women,
:13:11. > :13:12.every other country throughout history. We are asking as women all
:13:13. > :13:19.minorities, let us get into the same game. What do you say? You cannot
:13:20. > :13:24.solve the racism or the sexism of the past by more racism and sexism.
:13:25. > :13:29.It is not the past. There are complex reasons why a smaller number
:13:30. > :13:34.of women will appear in certain industries. It has a lot to do with
:13:35. > :13:38.childcare, education, expected. You cannot short cut that by setting a
:13:39. > :13:43.target. That is not how you achieve equality. Things are changing and
:13:44. > :13:48.more women are appearing in engineering and so on but it will
:13:49. > :13:50.take time. My worry is that these kinds of measures are
:13:51. > :13:52.counter-productive and undermine the perception that women can do it on
:13:53. > :13:54.their own merit rather counter-productive and undermine the
:13:55. > :13:59.perception that women can do it than because they need a helping hand. It
:14:00. > :14:10.is not a helping hand. It is to say, we are as good as men and these
:14:11. > :14:12.hidden barriers. Dot. Either they are not as good or they do not want
:14:13. > :14:16.it, which is just how we persuade are not as good or they do not want
:14:17. > :14:21.it, which ourselves that it is not happening, or there are barriers.
:14:22. > :14:29.How we judge meritocracy is at the heart of it. Are lots of industries
:14:30. > :14:35.won there are not that many women, such as engineering. We need more
:14:36. > :14:42.engineers generally. I think it is fine to try to encourage more women
:14:43. > :14:50.to study that subject. By setting a target you put pressure on an
:14:51. > :15:11.organisation. You tried to ignore the complex reasons why women do not
:15:12. > :15:21.go into those sectors. I think an all-female short list achieved
:15:22. > :15:24.miracle in Parliament. This is following up from having an
:15:25. > :15:28.injection of women coming up because the system was changed and a large
:15:29. > :15:35.percentage of women went into Parliament under the all-female
:15:36. > :15:42.short list were brilliant, so why not? So if the Prime Minister is
:15:43. > :15:50.mailed the Deputy Prime Minister has to be female and vice versa? Yes,
:15:51. > :15:59.absolutely, 50-50. We need to reflect the population. If we want
:16:00. > :16:04.to play this as a symbolic gesture, ideally we should have one of each.
:16:05. > :16:11.Why should a man get the job if you have a great female prime minister
:16:12. > :16:18.and a great female Deputy Prime Minister? I personally wouldn't mind
:16:19. > :16:28.this. I hear the disgruntled man and I want to come -- them to come with
:16:29. > :16:32.us. You're choosing people on the basis of traits they were born
:16:33. > :16:38.with. Are there too many Indian doctors in the NHS? I would argue
:16:39. > :16:42.not. Given that we tend to have male prime ministers rather than female
:16:43. > :16:50.ones, and we don't see another female one coming down the pipe very
:16:51. > :16:56.quickly... In the time before women short lists by the way. If you had a
:16:57. > :17:02.male prime minister with a female Deputy Prime Minister, wouldn't that
:17:03. > :17:08.give some balance? Why women? Why not working class person, which
:17:09. > :17:12.group do you prioritise? I would go with you that we need something
:17:13. > :17:17.fundamental to change. This idea that what we have now is a
:17:18. > :17:21.reflection of a genuine meritocracy is highly questionable. I would
:17:22. > :17:23.argue that when you look at the statistics things are changing.
:17:24. > :17:25.argue that when you look at the statistics things There are more
:17:26. > :17:28.women appearing in parts of public life, that is a long-term trend,
:17:29. > :17:34.women appearing in parts of public life, that is a long-term trend but
:17:35. > :17:38.if you are trying to appoint people on what they were born with... That
:17:39. > :17:42.is not the only reason but it is an additional reason. She has to be
:17:43. > :17:48.able to do the job, obviously. I am saying the policy of hazard to
:17:49. > :17:52.discrimination explicitly state that you should choose somebody who is
:17:53. > :17:56.female because they are female. At the moment there is already enough
:17:57. > :18:03.suspicion about women who are successful to get to the senior
:18:04. > :18:04.position and if you institutionalise it you reinforce that suspicion.
:18:05. > :18:10.it you reinforce that suspicion Harriet Harman is still complaining
:18:11. > :18:15.women are not being treated fairly. I think the policy reinforces the
:18:16. > :18:21.prejudice that women are not getting there because they are treated on
:18:22. > :18:24.the same basis. Although you may not want to have the all-female short
:18:25. > :18:30.list forever, wasn't it the kind of shock to the system that made a
:18:31. > :18:38.visible change in female representation, which the Tory side
:18:39. > :18:43.hasn't got? Of course it will work short-term but longer term it has a
:18:44. > :18:47.very degrading effect on the principle of equality and the fact
:18:48. > :18:51.Harriet Harman is saying she wasn't treated equally, whether it is true
:18:52. > :18:59.or not, the perception is still there. A number of women find this
:19:00. > :19:04.position must be reserved for a woman lying patronising, and
:19:05. > :19:13.speaking of patronising women, you spoken your Independent column, she
:19:14. > :19:18.presses all of the buttons for white people... Was that patronising and
:19:19. > :19:23.offensive? Probably. I wrote it because I felt that at the time but
:19:24. > :19:30.the point is that I was a token when I was appointed. The paper brought
:19:31. > :19:35.me in because I was a woman and I was a muslin or whatever. You are
:19:36. > :19:48.not writing about yourself. I was writing... It doesn't mean you don't
:19:49. > :19:56.criticise other women. We absolutely have to be tough, Manira is tough
:19:57. > :20:02.and so am I. Do you want to take back what you wrote? No. Do you
:20:03. > :20:09.really think positive discrimination has gone too far? I think there is
:20:10. > :20:14.already a suspicion out there that in certain sectors women are being
:20:15. > :20:18.promoted for the wrong reasons or ethnic minorities are being promoted
:20:19. > :20:24.for the wrong reasons. That is a shame and my worry is that by tying
:20:25. > :20:26.funding to your ethnicity or your gender, by saying you will get a
:20:27. > :20:31.promotion if you check that box, but promotion if you check that box but
:20:32. > :20:41.you feel that resentment and prejudice and undermine the case for
:20:42. > :20:47.inequality. I wanted to be treated equally, because I am capable of
:20:48. > :20:55.doing that job. Only two months to go before Scotland takes its biggest
:20:56. > :21:01.constitutional decision in 300 years - should it quit or stay with the
:21:02. > :21:05.UK? For some in Scotland campaign has been going on forever. What has
:21:06. > :21:12.been the impact on the campaign to date?
:21:13. > :21:17.Alex Salmond says Scotland would remain part of the European Union
:21:18. > :21:21.with sterling as its currency in a monetary union with the rest of the
:21:22. > :21:28.UK, but he has also promised more public spending, increased child
:21:29. > :21:35.care provision and free personal care for the elderly. The SNP claims
:21:36. > :21:40.it would leave people better off by ?1000 though that partly depends on
:21:41. > :21:47.the price of oil. With the Better Together arguing against
:21:48. > :21:48.independence, it has naturally been attacking the SNP on all fronts.
:21:49. > :21:55.attacking the SNP on all fronts George Osborne says there will be no
:21:56. > :22:00.monetary union. President Barroso told the BBC it would be extremely
:22:01. > :22:11.difficult for Scotland to join the EU after a yes vote. His successor
:22:12. > :22:21.this week said he agreed. Unions claim Scotland benefit by ?1400 by
:22:22. > :22:27.being part of the UK. A poll this morning shows a significant lead of
:22:28. > :22:34.57% for the no campaign, leaving the SNP to claim it will go their way in
:22:35. > :22:38.the last ten weeks. Nicola Sturgeon, the Deputy First Minister of
:22:39. > :22:44.Scotland, joins me now. You want an independent Scotland to keep the
:22:45. > :22:49.pound, stay in NATO, stay in the EU, Scotland already has all of that
:22:50. > :22:56.but you cannot guarantee it would have any of it in an independent
:22:57. > :23:00.Scotland, why take the risk? All of these things should be the case
:23:01. > :23:06.because they are in the best interests of Scotland and the rest
:23:07. > :23:12.of the UK but we want the powers to enable us to grow our economy
:23:13. > :23:16.faster, to be productive, and overtime increased the prosperity of
:23:17. > :23:21.people living in Scotland. We also want powers over our social security
:23:22. > :23:27.system so that we can create a system that meets our needs, one
:23:28. > :23:31.that also has a safety net for the most vulnerable people in our
:23:32. > :23:38.society. Independence is about letting us decide our own
:23:39. > :23:41.priorities. You didn't answer my question, you cannot guarantee you
:23:42. > :23:47.would be able to keep the pound within a monetary union, stay in
:23:48. > :23:52.NATO and the EU, you cannot guarantee you could produce any of
:23:53. > :23:57.these things, correct? I would argue that we can because these things are
:23:58. > :24:03.also in the interest of the rest of the UK. No country can be prevented
:24:04. > :24:08.from using the pound, I suggest we use that within a formal monetary
:24:09. > :24:12.union. We have had the UK minister quoted in the Guardian saying the
:24:13. > :24:17.position of the UK Government right now is one based on campaign
:24:18. > :24:23.rhetoric and following a yes vote, of course there would be a currency
:24:24. > :24:28.union. Who is that minister? The Minister is unnamed, but
:24:29. > :24:34.nevertheless that story in the Guardian was a solid one and not
:24:35. > :24:39.substantially denied. So you are basing your monetary policy on one
:24:40. > :24:49.on named minister in one story? Basing it on Common sense because
:24:50. > :24:52.monetary union would be in the best interests for Scotland but also
:24:53. > :24:58.overwhelmingly in the interests of the rest of the UK, given their
:24:59. > :25:05.trading relationship with Scotland and the contribution Scotland's
:25:06. > :25:11.exports make. We are having a very good debate and the UK Government
:25:12. > :25:20.and the no campaign, and this is not a criticism, want to talk up in --
:25:21. > :25:25.uncertainty to make people feel scared, but after independence there
:25:26. > :25:29.will be constructed process of negotiation. Let's stick with the
:25:30. > :25:32.monetary union because most economists agree it would be very
:25:33. > :25:38.good for an independent Scotland to have a monetary union but George
:25:39. > :25:43.Osborne, Ed Balls, Danny Alexander are unequivocal, they say you won't
:25:44. > :25:49.get it. You claim they are bluffing but again you cannot guarantee that
:25:50. > :25:53.so why the risk? I would say the benefits of independence are
:25:54. > :25:57.substantial but I would also say to George Osborne and his counterparts
:25:58. > :26:01.in the other parties that it would be a very brave Chancellor that says
:26:02. > :26:05.to businesses in the rest of the UK that they have to incur unnecessary
:26:06. > :26:08.additional transaction costs of half a very brave Chancellor that says to
:26:09. > :26:12.businesses in the rest of the UK that they have to incur unnecessary
:26:13. > :26:17.additional transaction costs of half. What we are doing is making a
:26:18. > :26:22.case that is based on common sense and voters in Scotland will listen
:26:23. > :26:27.to that case being put forward by the other side as well, and they
:26:28. > :26:34.will come to a judgement of the common-sense position. Let's look at
:26:35. > :26:43.EU membership because you haven't been able to guarantee the monetary
:26:44. > :26:48.union. When President Barroso said that a seamless transition to EU
:26:49. > :26:52.membership for an independent Scotland was anything but certain,
:26:53. > :26:59.and one said it could even be impossible, you dismissed him
:27:00. > :27:08.because he was standing down, but been -- venue EU president says the
:27:09. > :27:12.same, do you dismissed him? What we are doing... I should say at the
:27:13. > :27:17.outset of this, we have said repeatedly to the UK Government,
:27:18. > :27:22.let's go jointly and ask for a formal opinion on the EU
:27:23. > :27:28.commission. The EU commission have said they will only do that at this
:27:29. > :27:34.stage if the UK Government ask for it, they are point blank refusing to
:27:35. > :27:40.do that, you have to ask why? It is in their interests to talk up
:27:41. > :27:44.uncertainty. Scotland is an integral part of the European Union, we have
:27:45. > :27:50.been for 40 years, we comply with the rules and regulations... Mr
:27:51. > :27:56.Juncker knows all of that but he still says it will be anything but a
:27:57. > :28:01.seamless transition. He said you could not join the European Union by
:28:02. > :28:15.sending a letter, that is not our proposal. We set down a robust
:28:16. > :28:20.proposal and the timescale we think is reasonable under these
:28:21. > :28:25.circumstances. There are many nationals of other states living in
:28:26. > :28:29.Scotland right now, if we were to be outside of the European Union for
:28:30. > :28:33.any period of time, something the current treaty doesn't even provide
:28:34. > :28:37.for, they would lose their right to stay here. The interests of Scotland
:28:38. > :28:42.and the interests of European Union are in favour of a seamless
:28:43. > :28:44.transition. It comes down to common sense and people in Scotland will
:28:45. > :28:47.make sense and people in Scotland will
:28:48. > :28:54.their own judgement on who is talking the common-sense. What about
:28:55. > :28:59.NATO, two years ago you told Newsnight the SNP's position is that
:29:00. > :29:04.we wouldn't stay in NATO. We had a democratic debate, we looked at
:29:05. > :29:08.whether it would be in the interests of an independent Scotland, which
:29:09. > :29:17.forms a significant part of the territory of the North Atlantic and
:29:18. > :29:25.the party changed its mind. It did so in a thoroughly democratic way.
:29:26. > :29:35.That is the nature of democracy. Would you accept the protection of
:29:36. > :29:41.the NATO nuclear umbrella? There is no doubt the SNP's position is that
:29:42. > :29:48.we do not want nuclear weapons in Scotland. That is not what I asked.
:29:49. > :29:53.The world rid themselves of nuclear weapons. One of the interesting
:29:54. > :29:59.point is of the 28 member countries of Natal 25 do not have nuclear
:30:00. > :30:08.weapons. An independent Scotland... I asked if you would accept the
:30:09. > :30:14.nuclear umbrella. The key feature of NATO's military dog train is now
:30:15. > :30:22.clear shrike. We would accept the basis of which NATO is founded but
:30:23. > :30:25.we would argue two things. We want Trident removed from Scotland rather
:30:26. > :30:31.than have a situation where might we are spending ?100 billion over the
:30:32. > :30:33.next generation replacing Trident and we would argue within the
:30:34. > :30:39.international community that the world should move much more quickly
:30:40. > :30:42.to rid itself of nuclear weapons. That is the principal position and
:30:43. > :30:49.won the SNP has held consistently for many years. You would get rid of
:30:50. > :30:54.one of the key parts of the NATO deterrent based in Scotland. You
:30:55. > :31:00.would kick that out. You would not accept all of the club rules because
:31:01. > :31:05.you do not like the idea of nuclear. Why would they like a member like
:31:06. > :31:09.you in? Because Scotland is a significant part of the territory of
:31:10. > :31:14.the North Atlantic. You do not subscribe to the rules. 25 of the
:31:15. > :31:23.member states of NATO are non-nuclear members. You are saying
:31:24. > :31:28.you do not follow the doctrine. NATO has said it wants to move away from
:31:29. > :31:32.reliance on nuclear weapons. An independent Scotland would be
:31:33. > :31:36.entering the majority mainstream of NATO as a country that did not have
:31:37. > :31:40.nuclear weapons. By leading by example our moral authority and
:31:41. > :31:47.encouraging others to do likewise would be increased. Money and oil,
:31:48. > :31:49.the finance minister has said that an independent Scotland would
:31:50. > :31:55.increase public spending by 3% a year. He would pay for that by
:31:56. > :31:59.borrowing. Your First Minister says he is going to stash money in an oil
:32:00. > :32:08.fund. You're going to borrow and save. How does that work? There are
:32:09. > :32:11.two points. Firstly in terms of the outlook for finances and what is one
:32:12. > :32:16.of the central debates of this referendum campaign, austerity that
:32:17. > :32:22.we know will continue if we stay as part of the Westminster system
:32:23. > :32:26.versus prosperity. The economy can afford a higher level of increase in
:32:27. > :32:32.public spending while we continue to have deficit levels at a sustainable
:32:33. > :32:37.level. What is the point of borrowing and saving at the same
:32:38. > :32:40.time? People who have a mortgage and the savings account would not
:32:41. > :32:47.themselves what the wisdom of that is. This is based on recommendations
:32:48. > :32:52.of our expert fiscal Commission that as borrowing reduces to sustainable
:32:53. > :32:57.levels it makes sense to start saving a proportion of our oil
:32:58. > :33:03.wealth. In Norway, which has many similarities to Scotland, they have
:33:04. > :33:08.an oil fund worth ?500 billion. Scotland is part of the Westminster
:33:09. > :33:15.system is sitting on a share of UK debt. We can continue to allow our
:33:16. > :33:18.oil wealth, our vast oil wealth, to be mismanaged or we can decide we
:33:19. > :33:25.are going to manage that resource better in the years to come. Your
:33:26. > :33:28.figures do not add up unless you are about oil prices and revenue and you
:33:29. > :33:32.have been consistently wrong in your predictions. Last year you forecast
:33:33. > :33:42.that revenues would be the .7 billion more than they actually work
:33:43. > :33:48.-- 3.7 billion. The cost of the Scottish school system gone. There
:33:49. > :33:49.were particular reasons for that in terms of interruption to production
:33:50. > :33:54.and bigger levels of investment. and bigger levels of investment
:33:55. > :34:00.Used ill have to find the money. Let me explain. They are based on robust
:34:01. > :34:03.assumptions, firstly a production estimates that is in line with the
:34:04. > :34:07.estimates of the oil and gas industry. Use of figures that are
:34:08. > :34:15.based on production of 10 billion barrels of oil. Oil and gas has been
:34:16. > :34:21.wrong as well. It is 24 billion left to be recovered. That is what is in
:34:22. > :34:27.the UK Government's oil and gas strategy so production in line with
:34:28. > :34:30.industry estimates and an oil price of $110 per barrel which is flat in
:34:31. > :34:38.cash terms would be a real terms reduction. The Department of energy
:34:39. > :34:42.is estimating $128 per barrel so our estimate compared to that is
:34:43. > :34:49.cautious. These are robust estimates based on robust assumptions. Except
:34:50. > :34:55.they have been wrong. Finally, we hear a lot from you and your fellow
:34:56. > :35:00.nationalists, you want a Scandinavian style social democracy,
:35:01. > :35:04.you know how to spend the money but you never tell us about social
:35:05. > :35:08.democratic levels of taxation. Also should grizzlies have higher levels
:35:09. > :35:14.of tax in Scotland does at the moment -- all social grizzlies. I
:35:15. > :35:20.want a Scottish style of social democracy. Free education, free
:35:21. > :35:26.medicines and balancing the books every single year. We want to get
:35:27. > :35:30.more people into work in Scotland, raise the level of distribution in
:35:31. > :35:33.the Labour market and make the economy more productive so we are
:35:34. > :35:39.raising the overall tax revenue. Over the last 33 years we have
:35:40. > :35:46.generated more taxpayer head of population than is the case and the
:35:47. > :35:50.rest of the UK. Those last 33 years, some of those years oil prices would
:35:51. > :35:55.have been high and in others they would have been law but we take
:35:56. > :35:58.different decisions. A report showed that if we go as part of the
:35:59. > :36:06.Westminster system down the plate -- route of replacing Trident then the
:36:07. > :36:11.cost will be as high as ?4 billion every year. Our share of that is the
:36:12. > :36:15.hundred million pounds a year. Let us get access to our own resources
:36:16. > :36:19.so we can make different and better decisions about how to spend the
:36:20. > :36:24.resources we have. You are promising Scandinavian style social democratic
:36:25. > :36:29.levels of public spending but you say you will not need a top rate of
:36:30. > :36:38.tax of 56% which is what Scandinavia has, that all 25%, which is what
:36:39. > :36:42.Scandinavia has and VAT of 15%. You are going to have the spending but
:36:43. > :36:48.none of the taxes that make it possible in Scandinavia. For
:36:49. > :36:54.mischievous reasons you are met -- misrepresenting what I am saying.
:36:55. > :36:59.The Scottish economy can afford it and we want to generate more wealth
:37:00. > :37:03.in our economy. We want to use the existing resources Scotland has. We
:37:04. > :37:08.are the 14th richest country in the world in terms of what we produce.
:37:09. > :37:12.We do not want to be wasting resources. We want to be spending
:37:13. > :37:16.resources on the things that other priority for the people of Scotland.
:37:17. > :37:21.These are the benefits and the opportunities really get if we take
:37:22. > :37:32.the opportunity of voting yes and becoming independent.
:37:33. > :37:49.Hello unwelcome to the last Sunday Politics before the summer break.
:37:50. > :37:56.After accidents in dark alldyways are blamed on Essex's streetlight
:37:57. > :38:00.switch off, concerns that pdople are paying too high a price to cut the
:38:01. > :38:06.council's energy bill. I went doctors yesterday. I've got to go
:38:07. > :38:10.for an extra, she probably broken or fractured. And
:38:11. > :38:18.our offshore industry independence referendum. New
:38:19. > :38:23.investment has stalled whild the outcome is awaited.
:38:24. > :38:30.Here with me this week, Bernard Jenkin, MP for the Conservatives,
:38:31. > :38:32.the chair of the Public Administration Select Committee,
:38:33. > :38:35.Administration Select Committee and labour's Gavin Shuker, Shadow
:38:36. > :38:39.international development mhnister. international development minister.
:38:40. > :38:43.I want to start by talking about the local growth fund. More than ?400
:38:44. > :38:49.million will come 175 million in the next year with
:38:50. > :38:58.more money will help complete a number of
:38:59. > :39:06.new relief roads, the along with other projects. So, Gavin
:39:07. > :39:19.Shuker, airport, that is a good thing, isn't
:39:20. > :39:38.it? Yes, and it shows you how RDA and put in the LDP. We think
:39:39. > :39:56.that is the wrong agencies? The last time thex gave
:39:57. > :40:09.out money,, this time before. These are led by business
:40:10. > :40:22.people, assisted area status in Harwich and
:40:23. > :40:37.Clacton, industry and things like th`t. So it
:40:38. > :40:54.is a very different picture. in a much more dynamic way there.
:40:55. > :41:12.Now, staying designed to cut Essex's eligibility.
:41:13. > :41:31.Installing the system years time. Opposition to the
:41:32. > :41:57.blackout is growing. There telling them to be careful where
:41:58. > :42:26.they are walking because anyway. I don't drive and mx husband
:42:27. > :43:01.and my son were having switch off but crime. The thieves
:43:02. > :43:37.Kalex three separate times whilst stroke of 12... This happens,
:43:38. > :44:17.leaving everyone different ages from all walks of
:44:18. > :45:12.life that literally voluntary sector. I have to lock up
:45:13. > :46:13.in the charges, the net saving over a ten
:46:14. > :47:11.year here it is ?3 million. sum of ?6.5 million on a central
:47:12. > :48:11.management system. suggest people are not feelhng safe
:48:12. > :49:07.when the lights are off. It was introduction of this scheme. We,
:49:08. > :50:02.unlike some the concern of the restaurant. The
:50:03. > :51:07.important thing safety. If it were me, I wotldn t
:51:08. > :52:21.want are far less likely to cont`ct their
:52:22. > :53:31.MP and said I am 21 and I have of pounds of investment are on hold.
:53:32. > :54:44.In the East, for that sector, a yes Clyde, but we do have deep water
:54:45. > :56:00.ports. Looking at SLP, a local British government can to gdt
:56:01. > :57:08.companies in, particularly politics is packed on Westmhnster
:57:09. > :58:18.and people everywhere that we stay
:58:19. > :59:35.together. We know conservatives in South Suffolk chose
:59:36. > :00:34.a local will keep a bit safer. That is all
:00:35. > :00:47.the time we have. So, plenty happening in Parliament
:00:48. > :00:50.this coming week, including a controversial bill to make
:00:51. > :01:11.so-called assisted dying legal and Lord Carey has intervened in the
:01:12. > :01:16.assisted dying debate. Will it make a difference? It will make a
:01:17. > :01:24.difference because we have established in the House of Lords, I
:01:25. > :01:28.am not sure who they speak for and why they should have a privileged
:01:29. > :01:34.position, but he was a big opponent and has made a change of heart. The
:01:35. > :01:44.fact that the Daily Mail has printed this shows this is a big
:01:45. > :01:51.intervention. The Bill being pushed through, is it now on the agenda? I
:01:52. > :01:55.think it is. There are international examples of assisted dying
:01:56. > :02:00.elsewhere. The state of Oregon passed a Bill similar to this in the
:02:01. > :02:05.1990s and things have not got out of control. That has not been an
:02:06. > :02:12.expansion or abuse. It has settled down and become part of the
:02:13. > :02:17.furniture. That makes it easier for this Bill, to make the case for it.
:02:18. > :02:21.Religious people may still have a principled objection but most other
:02:22. > :02:25.people have a practical objection, which is how to put in place
:02:26. > :02:30.safeguards to deal with unscrupulous relatives or anyone else who wants
:02:31. > :02:33.to abuse this right? Once a controversial issue is only being
:02:34. > :02:38.opposed for practical reasons it is on its way to getting its way. What
:02:39. > :02:43.is the division, is it the Church against everybody else? Is it a
:02:44. > :02:49.right and left division? What is stopping it? It is a very difficult
:02:50. > :02:54.moral issue and there are people who can have genuinely held Christian
:02:55. > :03:00.beliefs or non-Christian beliefs who can be on both sides. I think that
:03:01. > :03:04.the Lord Carey intervention is potentially a game changer not just
:03:05. > :03:08.because he is a former Archbishop of Canterbury but because he was on the
:03:09. > :03:15.Evan Jellicoe side of the Church of England. That is quite a big move.
:03:16. > :03:21.The response was to say, please withdraw your bell and let us have a
:03:22. > :03:26.royal Commission. The Supreme Court kicked the ball back to Parliament
:03:27. > :03:31.when they rejected the cases of three people who had been taking the
:03:32. > :03:34.case and said, we could say that banning the right to life is against
:03:35. > :03:39.the European Court of Human Rights, but it is a moral issue and an issue
:03:40. > :03:46.for Parliament. Parliament needs to decide. The data act that is going
:03:47. > :03:49.to be pushed through Parliament. decide. The data act that is going
:03:50. > :03:55.to be pushed through Parliament In record time. To comply with a
:03:56. > :04:02.European court judgement. Tom Watson and David Davis, some dissent. Are
:04:03. > :04:10.you so prized with how united the establishment, left, right and
:04:11. > :04:14.centre is? No. There is a great quote saying this has been enacted
:04:15. > :04:18.under the something must be done act and that captures it exactly. Even
:04:19. > :04:25.Cameron says he does not want to look people in the eye and say that
:04:26. > :04:30.he did not do everything he could. There is no end to the power of
:04:31. > :04:33.surveillance. It is all was about drawing a distinction. I am always
:04:34. > :04:40.suspicious when politicians look something up and said, we have all
:04:41. > :04:44.agreed. Are there at the centre is right or is the political
:04:45. > :04:53.establishment right? I think the establishment is right. I think it
:04:54. > :04:57.is stronger than other issues. We are in a unique position where all
:04:58. > :05:01.three political parties have relatively recent experience of
:05:02. > :05:05.government so they now that security threats are not made up by
:05:06. > :05:15.unscrupulous people. The legislation being proposed is not dramatic, it
:05:16. > :05:19.is to fill a gap that was created. I do not see the political
:05:20. > :05:24.controversy. All three political parties support it. David Davis and
:05:25. > :05:33.Liberty are against that, and always are. Would you not have expected...
:05:34. > :05:40.The Lib Dems are in government, but a bit more rebellion on the Labour
:05:41. > :05:43.backbenches? There is no political controversy put outside parliament
:05:44. > :05:51.there's quite a lot of controversy about this. My paper has taken an
:05:52. > :05:58.interest in this. It is interesting, it does not feel, it is not a
:05:59. > :06:03.1950s, three public school boys setting, let us have this deal. The
:06:04. > :06:08.Liberal Democrats and Labour have serious questions. There's going to
:06:09. > :06:17.be a sunset clause that will run out in 2016. The Liberal Democrats, who
:06:18. > :06:21.asked pretty tough questions, have said there are assurances. Ed
:06:22. > :06:25.Miliband did not go to public school.
:06:26. > :06:27.For many English football fans, tonight's World Cup final presents
:06:28. > :06:30.How do you pick between two traditional foes
:06:31. > :06:33.Well, if you're a political obsessive, like these
:06:34. > :06:36.three, you could always back the nation according to how it votes.
:06:37. > :06:39.The website LabourList has produced a political guide to the tournament.
:06:40. > :06:53.At the beginning of the tournament, it was a fairly balanced playing
:06:54. > :06:58.field politically with 15 left wing and 17 right-wing countries. England
:06:59. > :07:00.found themselves isolated in a group with three left-wing countries. That
:07:01. > :07:07.was the least of their problems. was the least of their problems
:07:08. > :07:09.There was a clear domination of democratic regimes over
:07:10. > :07:12.authoritarian with only six of oratory and countries making it
:07:13. > :07:22.through to the finals and the only all authoritarian tie was dubbed the
:07:23. > :07:25.worst match of the World Cup. By the second round 16 teams remained. The
:07:26. > :07:30.left had a clear advantage with nine, seven from the right and
:07:31. > :07:35.authoritarian countries all but wiped out. Two representatives
:07:36. > :07:44.remained. Both were beaten by European democracies. By the
:07:45. > :07:50.semi-finals, all was even Stephen. A right-wing Protestant Europe taking
:07:51. > :07:55.on Catholics South America. With one victory apiece, Germany knocking out
:07:56. > :08:01.Brazil and Argentina beating the Dutch, tonight's final repeats that
:08:02. > :08:10.pattern. Who will win? Angela Merkel's Germany or Argentina?
:08:11. > :08:12.We're joined now by Britain's only Labour adviser
:08:13. > :08:26.Should we read political significance in to the fact that the
:08:27. > :08:32.only time England has won the World Cup was under a Labour government?
:08:33. > :08:37.Of course. The problem is we did not qualify for Euro 2008 when it was a
:08:38. > :08:43.Labour government. We have had some pretty shoddy results under a Labour
:08:44. > :08:43.government. As someone under the left, are you backing Argentina?
:08:44. > :08:50.left, are you backing Argentina Absolutely not. I do not think it
:08:51. > :08:59.has anything to do with politics. It is a bit of fun. People should
:09:00. > :09:01.choose it is Don Hoop plays the best football and the Germans have been
:09:02. > :09:06.fantastic. They were great in 2 10 fantastic. They were great in 2010
:09:07. > :09:11.as well. They started this model in 2008 and that is the sort of thing
:09:12. > :09:16.people should be supporting. Who should a Eurosceptic support? I
:09:17. > :09:20.would not say Argentina because that is the country that has tried to
:09:21. > :09:28.seize British sovereign territory within my lifetime. You were not
:09:29. > :09:33.around for the Blitz. Believe it or not, I was not. There is a strong
:09:34. > :09:45.political case to support Germany. They are probably going to win the
:09:46. > :09:49.World Cup with a clear of -- with players of Polish origin. That sort
:09:50. > :09:57.of cultural change they have forced themselves to go through... You talk
:09:58. > :10:02.about them being right wing, but in fact the way that the German league
:10:03. > :10:08.is structured, and I am an expert, is based on ownership. It is very
:10:09. > :10:16.different from the Premier League. It is about football as a usual
:10:17. > :10:25.good. The ticket prices are lower. The fans are involved in running the
:10:26. > :10:28.club. It is a model that all English football clubs should emulate.
:10:29. > :10:33.Germany had a strong football team under centre right governments and
:10:34. > :10:44.centre left governments and a coalition. A strong football team
:10:45. > :10:48.and a strong economy. The Conservative MP who is the arch
:10:49. > :10:51.Eurosceptic wanted to get us out of the European Union and was for a few
:10:52. > :10:58.weeks ago when people were making jokes about Jean-Claude Juncker, he
:10:59. > :11:03.was outraged and said you should not do that, so he could happily support
:11:04. > :11:08.Germany. What was interesting about the authoritarian and democratic
:11:09. > :11:20.regimes, what is great is that the World Cup is run by this open and
:11:21. > :11:26.democratic organisation Fifa. It is similar to the EU in many regards.
:11:27. > :11:35.Two countries led by women. Maybe gender is the thing. We did not win
:11:36. > :11:41.under Margaret Thatcher. There's one big difference with the EU, you
:11:42. > :11:48.cannot flog six Dom Acta gets to go to a European summit. Did you know
:11:49. > :11:58.that Italy won two world cups under Mussolini? Can we draw any
:11:59. > :12:04.conclusions between a political system and the performance of the
:12:05. > :12:07.football team? You can draw certain parallels between maybe national
:12:08. > :12:15.cliches, so the Germans are efficient and effective, which might
:12:16. > :12:19.reflect and the English are very polite so we let everyone score
:12:20. > :12:23.first and go into the second round. We put ourselves at the back of the
:12:24. > :12:35.queue. Is England going to qualify for the European? We are going to
:12:36. > :12:38.win the European Championship. The first country Scotland have to play
:12:39. > :12:52.is Germany. What could possibly go wrong? Who is going to win? Germany.
:12:53. > :12:56.Germany. I am going to put a few bob on Argentina. Are you going to be
:12:57. > :13:03.watching? Absolutely. Thank you. This is the last Sunday Politics
:13:04. > :13:07.for the summer. But we'll be back in early autumn
:13:08. > :13:10.and our first programme will be live from Scotland,
:13:11. > :13:16.the weekend before the referendum The Daily Politics is back tomorrow
:13:17. > :13:21.at noon and we'll bring you the last PMQs before the summer
:13:22. > :13:24.on Wednesday morning from 11:30am. Remember, if it's Sunday,
:13:25. > :15:03.it's the Sunday Politics, unless You have been selected to take part
:15:04. > :15:10.in an antiques TV programme.