:01:11. > :01:17.Welcome to the Sunday Politics, coming to you live from Edinburgh.
:01:18. > :01:19.Terrorists who use the name Islamic State have carried out
:01:20. > :01:28.their threat to murder the British aid worker, David Haines.
:01:29. > :01:30.They released a video late last night, showing a masked man
:01:31. > :01:36.beheading Mr Haines, who was taken captive in Syria 18 months ago.
:01:37. > :01:38.The jihadist group have already beheaded two American journalists.
:01:39. > :01:41.Now it's threatening the life of a second British hostage.
:01:42. > :01:43.David Cameron described the murder as an act of pure evil.
:01:44. > :01:46.As we speak he's chairing a meeting of the Cabinet's COBRA
:01:47. > :01:50.President Obama said the US stood shoulder to shoulder
:01:51. > :01:57.Alex Salmond says Scotland "stands on the cusp of history" as
:01:58. > :01:59.he predicts a historic and substantial victory in
:02:00. > :02:08.As the latest polls show the two sides neck and neck,
:02:09. > :02:10.I'll ask Yes campaigner and socialist Tommy Sheridan about his
:02:11. > :02:18.And after last week's last-minute interventions from Gordon Brown
:02:19. > :02:20.David Cameron, Ed Miliband and big business, I'll ask
:02:21. > :02:29.Here in the East: it's enough to win over waverers.
:02:30. > :02:31.The campaign in the Clacton by`election takes off, now `ll
:02:32. > :02:34.And students with disabilithes believe benefit changes could
:02:35. > :02:47.step closer back to Parliament. Is it a lame-duck administration?
:02:48. > :02:50.Late last night, as most folk were preparing for bed, news broke that
:02:51. > :02:53.Islamic State extremists had carried out their threat to murder the
:02:54. > :02:57.The group released a video, similar to the ones in which two American
:02:58. > :02:59.journalists were decapitated, showing a masked man apparently
:03:00. > :03:03.beheading Mr Haines who was taken captive in Syria last year.
:03:04. > :03:05.The terrorist, who has a southern British accent,
:03:06. > :03:09.also threatened the life of a second hostage from the UK
:03:10. > :03:12.Mr Haines is the third Westerner to be killed
:03:13. > :03:16.His family have paid tribute to his humanitarian work; they say he
:03:17. > :03:23.David Cameron described the murder as an act of pure evil, and said
:03:24. > :03:26.his heart went out to Mr Haines family, who had shown extraordinary
:03:27. > :03:36.Mr Cameron went on to say, "We will do everything in our power
:03:37. > :03:38.to hunt down these murderers and ensure they face justice,
:03:39. > :03:43.Mr Haines was born in England and brought up in Scotland.
:03:44. > :03:47.Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond condemned the killing on the Marr
:03:48. > :04:01.Well, it's an act of unspeakable barbarism that we have seen.
:04:02. > :04:07.Obviously our condolences go to the family members of David Haynes who
:04:08. > :04:13.have borne this with such fortitude in recent months -- David
:04:14. > :04:16.Alex Salmond was also asked whether he supported military action
:04:17. > :04:28.Haines there is no reason to believe whatsoever that China or Russia or
:04:29. > :04:33.any country will see their will to deal with this barbarism. There is a
:04:34. > :04:36.will for effective, international, legal action but it must come in
:04:37. > :04:43.that fashion, and I would urge that to be a consideration to develop a
:04:44. > :04:44.collective response to what is a threat to humanity.
:04:45. > :04:46.Our security correspondent Gordon Corera joins me now
:04:47. > :04:58.Gordon, as we speak, the Cobra emergency meeting is meeting yet
:04:59. > :05:04.again. It meets a lot these days. I would suggest that the options
:05:05. > :05:08.facing this committee and Mr Cameron are pretty limited. That's right. I
:05:09. > :05:14.think they are extremely limited. They have been all along in these
:05:15. > :05:17.hostage situations. We know, for instance, that British government
:05:18. > :05:21.policy is not to pay ransom is to kidnappers. Other Europeans states
:05:22. > :05:26.are thought to have done so to get hostages released, and also not to
:05:27. > :05:32.make substantive policy concessions to the groups, so while there might
:05:33. > :05:35.be contact, there won't be a lot of options left. We know the US in the
:05:36. > :05:44.past has looked at rescue missions and in July on operation to free the
:05:45. > :05:47.hostages, landing at the oil facility in Syria but finding no one
:05:48. > :05:51.there. If you look at the options, they are not great. That is the
:05:52. > :06:00.difficult situation which Cobra will have been discussing the last hour.
:06:01. > :06:03.Does this make it more likely, because it might have the direction
:06:04. > :06:10.the government was going in any way, that we join with the Americans in
:06:11. > :06:15.perhaps the regional allies in air strikes against Islamic State, not
:06:16. > :06:19.just in Iraq, but also in Syria We heard from President Obama outlining
:06:20. > :06:21.his strategy against Islamic State last week when he talked about
:06:22. > :06:27.building a coalition, about authorising air strikes. And
:06:28. > :06:32.training troops. We are still waiting to hear what exact role the
:06:33. > :06:42.UK will play in that. We know it will play a role because it has been
:06:43. > :06:47.arming the fishmonger forces but the question is, will it actually
:06:48. > :06:52.conduct military strikes in Iraq -- arming the passion are there. We
:06:53. > :07:03.have not got a clear answer from government and that is something
:07:04. > :07:07.where they are ours to discuss what was around the table. It's possible
:07:08. > :07:10.we might learn some more today as a result of the Cobra meeting, but I
:07:11. > :07:15.think the government will be wanting to not be seen to suddenly rushed to
:07:16. > :07:20.a completely different policy as a result of one incident, however
:07:21. > :07:22.terrible it is. Whether it hardens their reserve -- resolved to play
:07:23. > :07:28.more active role in the coalition, that's possible, but we have to wait
:07:29. > :07:35.see to get the detail. -- wait and see. What the whole country would
:07:36. > :07:38.like to see would be British and American special forces going in and
:07:39. > :07:44.getting these guys. I think that would unite the nation. But that is
:07:45. > :07:48.very difficult, isn't it? It is As you saw with a rescue mission a few
:07:49. > :07:51.months ago, the problem is getting actionable intelligence on the
:07:52. > :07:53.ground at a particular moment. The theory is that the group of
:07:54. > :07:58.kidnappers are moving the hostages may be even every or few days, so
:07:59. > :08:02.you need intelligence and quickly and then you need to be able to get
:08:03. > :08:06.the team onto the ground into that time frame. That is clearly a
:08:07. > :08:09.possibility and something they will be looking at, but it certainly
:08:10. > :08:14.challenging, particularly when you have a group like this operating
:08:15. > :08:17.within its own state, effectively, and knowing that other people are
:08:18. > :08:22.looking very hard for it and doing everything they can to hide. Gordon,
:08:23. > :08:24.thank you very much. Clegg dropped everything and headed
:08:25. > :08:29.to Scotland when a poll last Sunday gave the YES vote its first ever
:08:30. > :08:35.lead in this prolonged referendum If their reaction looked
:08:36. > :08:38.like panic, that's because it was. Until last weekend,
:08:39. > :08:41.though the polls had been narrowing, the consensus was still that NO
:08:42. > :08:43.would carry the day. The new consensus is that
:08:44. > :08:57.it's too close to call. If we look back at the beginning of
:08:58. > :09:00.the year, public opinion in Scotland was fairly settled. The no campaign
:09:01. > :09:04.had a commanding lead across the opinion polls, excluding the
:09:05. > :09:11.undecided voters. At one point, at the end of last year, an average of
:09:12. > :09:15.63% backed the no campaign and only 37% supported a yes vote. As we move
:09:16. > :09:21.into 2014 and up to this week, you can see a clear trend emerging as
:09:22. > :09:23.the lead for the no campaign gets narrower and narrower and the
:09:24. > :09:28.average of the most recent polls has the contest hanging in the balance.
:09:29. > :09:33.There was a poll a week ago that put the Yes campaign in the lead for the
:09:34. > :09:37.first time, 51% against 49%, but that lead was not reflected in the
:09:38. > :09:47.other polls last week. For polls were published last night, one by
:09:48. > :09:54.Salvation, for the macro-2 campaign -- Better Together campaign, and
:09:55. > :09:58.there was another that gave a one percentage point different. ICM have
:09:59. > :10:04.the yes campaign back in the lead at 54% and the no campaign at 46%, but
:10:05. > :10:09.their sample size was 705 Scottish adults, smaller than usual. Another
:10:10. > :10:19.suggests that the contest remains on a knife edge with 49.4% against
:10:20. > :10:26.50.6%. When fed into the poll of polls the figures average out with
:10:27. > :10:30.yes at 49% and polls -- no at 5 %. But some people think 18% are
:10:31. > :10:33.undecided, and it is how they vote gets -- when they get to the polling
:10:34. > :10:35.booths that could make all the difference.
:10:36. > :10:39.campaigner and Respect Party MP George Galloway.
:10:40. > :10:46.Welcome to the Sunday Politics. Big business, big oil, big banks, the
:10:47. > :10:51.Tories, the Orange order, all against Scottish independence. You
:10:52. > :10:54.sure you are on right side? Yes because the interests of working
:10:55. > :10:57.people are in staying together. This is a troubled moment in a marriage,
:10:58. > :11:03.a very long marriage, in which some good things and bad things have been
:11:04. > :11:06.achieved together. And there is no doubt that the crockery is being
:11:07. > :11:11.thrown around the house of the minute. But I believe that the
:11:12. > :11:14.underlying interests of working people are on working on the
:11:15. > :11:18.relationship rather than divorce. I have been divorced. It's a very
:11:19. > :11:21.messy, acrimonious, bitter affair and it's particularly bad for the
:11:22. > :11:27.children will stop that's why I am here. You talk about working people,
:11:28. > :11:30.and particularly Scottish working people, they seem to have concluded
:11:31. > :11:34.that the social democracy they want to create cannot now be done in a UK
:11:35. > :11:40.context. Why should they not have a shot of going it alone? Because the
:11:41. > :11:44.opposite will happen. Separation will cause a race to the bottom in
:11:45. > :11:50.taxation. Alex Salmond has already announced he will cut the taxes on
:11:51. > :11:54.companies, corporation tax, down to 3% hello whatever it is in the rest
:11:55. > :12:01.of these islands. And business will only be attracted to come here,
:12:02. > :12:04.country of 5 million people on if there is low regulation, low public
:12:05. > :12:10.expenditure, low levels of taxation for them will stop you cannot have
:12:11. > :12:14.Scandinavian social democracy on Texan levels of taxation. The
:12:15. > :12:18.British government, as will be, the rest of the UK, they will race Alex
:12:19. > :12:26.Salmond to the bottom. If he cuts it by three, they will cut it by four.
:12:27. > :12:29.And so on. So whether some people cannot see it clearly yet or not,
:12:30. > :12:33.the interests of the working people on both sides of the border would be
:12:34. > :12:36.gravely damaged by separation. Let's take the interest of the working
:12:37. > :12:40.people. As you know, as well as anyone, the coalition is in
:12:41. > :12:45.fermenting both a series of cuts and reforms in welfare, and labour,
:12:46. > :12:49.Westminster Labour, has only limited plans to reverse any of that. Surely
:12:50. > :12:56.if you want to preserve the welfare state as it is, independence is the
:12:57. > :12:59.way to do it. For the reasons I just explain, I don't believe that. But
:13:00. > :13:07.Ed Miliband will be along in a minute. He will be along in May The
:13:08. > :13:11.polls indicate... They say he is only four or 5%, that is the
:13:12. > :13:16.average. Like the referendum, the next general election could be nip
:13:17. > :13:20.and tuck. I don't, myself, think that the time of David Cameron as
:13:21. > :13:23.Prime Minister is for much longer. I think there will be a Labour
:13:24. > :13:30.government in the spring and the Labour government in London and a
:13:31. > :13:33.stronger Scottish Parliament, super Devo Max, that is now on the table.
:13:34. > :13:38.That is the best arrangement of people in the country. But the
:13:39. > :13:42.people of Scotland surely cannot base a decision on independence on
:13:43. > :13:47.your feeling that Labour might win the next general election. It is my
:13:48. > :13:51.feeling. When the Tories were beaten on the bedroom tax last week in the
:13:52. > :13:55.house, it was written all over the faces of the government side not
:13:56. > :14:04.only that they were headed for defeat, but probably a massive fishy
:14:05. > :14:09.-- Fisher. I think the race to the bottom that I have proper size will
:14:10. > :14:17.mean that the welfare state will be a distant memory quite soon. The
:14:18. > :14:23.cuts and the run on the Scottish economy here in Edinburgh, the
:14:24. > :14:28.financial services industry, that will be gravely damage. The Ministry
:14:29. > :14:35.of Defence jobs in Scotland decimated, probably ended, more or
:14:36. > :14:39.less. It will be a time of cuts and austerity, maybe super austerity in
:14:40. > :14:42.an independent Scotland. You mentioned defence. What about
:14:43. > :14:46.nuclear weapons? The Tories and Labour will keep them. You are
:14:47. > :14:50.against them. Surely the only way to be rid of them in Scotland is by
:14:51. > :14:56.independence. But you are not rid of them by telling them down the river.
:14:57. > :15:01.The danger would be the same -- telling them down the river. The
:15:02. > :15:05.danger would be the same. Nuclear radiation does not respect Alex
:15:06. > :15:11.Salmond's national boundaries. They would be committed to immediately
:15:12. > :15:14.joining NATO, which is bristling with nuclear weapons and is what --
:15:15. > :15:20.involved in wars across the Atlantic. So anyone looking for a
:15:21. > :15:24.peace option will have to elect a government in Britain as a whole
:15:25. > :15:26.that will get rid of nuclear weapons and get out of military
:15:27. > :15:32.entanglements. We are in one again now. I have been up the whole night,
:15:33. > :15:36.till 5am, dealing with some of the consequences and implications of the
:15:37. > :15:43.grave international matter that you opened the show with. David Haines
:15:44. > :15:48.and the fate of the hostage still in their hands. There are many other
:15:49. > :15:52.hostages as well. And there are many people dying who are neither British
:15:53. > :15:57.nor American. I have, somehow, been drawn into this matter. And it
:15:58. > :16:06.showed me, again, that the world is interdependent. It is absolutely
:16:07. > :16:11.riven with division and hatred, and this is the worst possible time to
:16:12. > :16:18.be opting out of the world to set up a small mini-state on the promises
:16:19. > :16:22.of Alex Salmond of social democracy funded by Texan taxes. Let's, for
:16:23. > :16:27.the sake of the next question, assume that everything you have told
:16:28. > :16:38.us is true. Why is your side squandering a 20 point lead?
:16:39. > :16:46.I will have a great deal to say about that, whatever the result
:16:47. > :16:53.This is very much a Scottish Labour project, is that not a condemnation
:16:54. > :17:01.of Scottish Labour? It is potentially on its deathbed. The
:17:02. > :17:16.country breaking up, the principal responsibility will be on them. And
:17:17. > :17:22.the pitiful, absolutely pitiful job that has been made of defending a
:17:23. > :17:27.300-year-old relationship in this island by the Scottish Labour
:17:28. > :17:33.leadership is really terrible for me to behold, even though I'm no longer
:17:34. > :17:38.one of them. I don't know how they are going to get out of this
:17:39. > :17:44.deathbed. Do you agree that if this referendum is lost by your side it
:17:45. > :17:47.will be because traditional working-class Labour voters,
:17:48. > :17:52.particularly in the west of Scotland, have abundant Labour and
:17:53. > :17:58.decided to vote for independence? Without a doubt, the number of
:17:59. > :18:03.Labour voters intending to vote yes is disturbingly high. Even just
:18:04. > :18:07.months ago during the European Parliament elections, swathes of
:18:08. > :18:13.people who didn't vote SNP will be voting yes on Thursday. That is a
:18:14. > :18:19.grave squandering of a great legacy of Scottish Labour history, which
:18:20. > :18:24.history will decree as unforgivable. If Labour is to get
:18:25. > :18:31.out of its deathbed in Scotland it will have to become Labour again.
:18:32. > :18:39.Real Labour again. I am ready to help them with that. My goodness,
:18:40. > :18:45.they need help with it. I wonder if it isn't just a failure of Labour in
:18:46. > :18:49.Scotland. People all over Britain are increasingly fed up with the
:18:50. > :18:54.Westminster system, but it is only the Scots who currently have the
:18:55. > :18:59.chance to break free from it, so why shouldn't they? That is exactly
:19:00. > :19:06.right. They see a parliament of expenses cheats led by Lord snooty
:19:07. > :19:10.and the Bullingdon club elite, carrying through austerity for many
:19:11. > :19:16.but not for themselves and they are repulsed by it. They need change,
:19:17. > :19:21.but you can go backwards and call it change but it will be worse than the
:19:22. > :19:27.situation you have now. A lot of Scottish people don't buy that. It
:19:28. > :19:33.is a big gamble. If I were poised to put my family's life savings on the
:19:34. > :19:37.roulette table in Las Vegas, my wife would not be scaremongering if she
:19:38. > :19:42.pointed out the potential consequences if I'd lost. She would
:19:43. > :19:47.not be negative by telling me that is my children's money I am risking.
:19:48. > :19:50.If I jumped off this roof it would change my point of view, but it
:19:51. > :19:55.would be worse than the point of view I have now. There is another
:19:56. > :20:00.issue here because the Scots are being asked to gamble on the
:20:01. > :20:06.Westminster parties, which they are already suspicious of, of delivering
:20:07. > :20:12.home rule. Alistair Darling could not even tell me if Ed Balls had
:20:13. > :20:17.signed off on more income tax powers for Scotland, so that is a gamble
:20:18. > :20:22.for the Scots. I feel the British state has had such a shake out of
:20:23. > :20:29.all this that they would be beyond idiots, they would be insane now to
:20:30. > :20:33.risk all of this flaring up again because whatever happens, if we win
:20:34. > :20:40.on Thursday, it is going to be narrowly. It will be a severe
:20:41. > :20:45.fissure in Scotland. A great deal of unpleasantness that we are already
:20:46. > :20:51.aware of. That could turn but we're still. It would be dicing with
:20:52. > :20:57.death, playing with fire, to let Scottish people down after Thursday
:20:58. > :21:03.if we narrowly win. If you narrowly win, and if there are moves to this
:21:04. > :21:07.home rule Mr Brown has been talking about, England hasn't spoken yet on
:21:08. > :21:14.this. Whilst England would probably not want to stop -- stop Scotland
:21:15. > :21:23.getting this, they would say, what about us? It could delay the whole
:21:24. > :21:28.procedure. It is necessary, you are right. England should have home
:21:29. > :21:34.rule, and I screamed at Scottish Labour MPs going into the vote to
:21:35. > :21:38.introduce tuition fees in England. I told them this was a constitutional
:21:39. > :21:45.monstrosity, as well as a crime against young people in England It
:21:46. > :21:51.was risking everything. We are led by idiots. Our leaders are not James
:21:52. > :21:57.Bonds, they are Austin powers. We need to change the leadership, not
:21:58. > :22:03.rip up a 300-year-old marriage. Thank you.
:22:04. > :22:05.It's been one of the longest and hardest fought political campaigns
:22:06. > :22:09.in history, with Alex Salmond firing the starting gun on the referendum
:22:10. > :22:20.Adam's been stitching together the key moments of the campaign
:22:21. > :22:26.It is the other thing drawing people to the Scottish parliament, the new
:22:27. > :22:33.great tapestry of Scotland. It is the story of battles won and lost,
:22:34. > :22:37.Scottish moments, British moments, famous Scots, and not so famous
:22:38. > :22:44.Scots. There is even a panel dedicated to the rise of the SNP.
:22:45. > :22:48.Alex Salmond's majority in the elections in 2011 made the
:22:49. > :22:53.referendum inevitable. It became reality when he and David Cameron
:22:54. > :22:58.did a deal in Edinburgh one year later. The Scottish Government set
:22:59. > :23:04.out its plans for independence in this book, just a wish list to some,
:23:05. > :23:10.a sacred text to others. This White Paper is the most detailed
:23:11. > :23:15.improvements that any people have ever been offered in the world as a
:23:16. > :23:21.basis for becoming an independent country. The no campaign, called
:23:22. > :23:26.Better Together, united the Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems under the
:23:27. > :23:30.leadership of Alistair Darling. Then the Scottish people were bombarded
:23:31. > :23:34.with two years of photo opportunities and a lot of
:23:35. > :23:39.campaigning. For the no campaign, Jim Murphy went on tour but took a
:23:40. > :23:44.break when he was egged and his events were often hijacked by yes
:23:45. > :23:50.campaigners who were accused of being intimidating. In turn, they
:23:51. > :23:58.accused the no campaign of using scare tactics. Things heated up when
:23:59. > :24:03.the TV dinner -- during the TV debate. Fever pitch was reached one
:24:04. > :24:08.week ago when one poll suggested the yes campaign was in the lead for the
:24:09. > :24:13.first time. The three main Westminster leaders ditched PMQs to
:24:14. > :24:17.head north. I think people can feel it is like a general election, that
:24:18. > :24:21.you make a decision and five years later you can make another decision
:24:22. > :24:30.if you are fed up with the Tories, give them a kick... This is totally
:24:31. > :24:35.different. And Labour shelved not quite 100 MPs onto the train, Alex
:24:36. > :24:39.Salmond took a helicopter instead. This is about the formation of the
:24:40. > :24:49.NHS. A big theme of the yes campaign is that changes to the NHS in Linden
:24:50. > :24:55.-- in England would lead to privatisation in Scotland. Alex
:24:56. > :25:02.Salmond's plan to share the pound was trashed by big names. There were
:25:03. > :25:06.other big question is, what would happen to military hardware like
:25:07. > :26:15.Trident based on the Clyde? Would an independent Scotland be able to
:26:16. > :26:16.Trident based on the Clyde? Would an am British and I hope to be staying
:26:17. > :26:19.British. This is what people from Scotland have done, taken to the
:26:20. > :27:42.rest of the world in many cases and I think I am going to vote yes. I am
:27:43. > :27:42.rest of the world in many cases and because they think it will be more
:27:43. > :27:50.Scotland. You have already got because they think it will be more
:27:51. > :27:54.care for the elderly. You might not in future have that if public
:27:55. > :27:59.spending is overdependent on the price of oil, over which you have no
:28:00. > :28:03.control. We don't have to worry about one single resource, we
:28:04. > :28:10.already have 20% of the fishing stock in Europe. We already have 25%
:28:11. > :28:21.of the wind, wave and solar power generation. We, as an independent
:28:22. > :28:26.country, have huge resources, natural resources but also people
:28:27. > :28:30.resources. We have five first-class universities, food and beverages
:28:31. > :28:34.industry which is the envy of the world. We have the ability to
:28:35. > :28:38.produce the resources on the revenues that won't just maintain
:28:39. > :28:42.the health service and education but it will develop health and
:28:43. > :28:47.education. I don't want to stand still, I want to redistribute
:28:48. > :28:54.wealth. But all of the projections of public spending for an
:28:55. > :28:59.independent Scotland show that to keep spending at the current level
:29:00. > :29:04.you need a strong price of oil and you are dependent on this commodity
:29:05. > :29:09.which goes up and down and sideways. That is a gamble. I have got to
:29:10. > :29:13.laugh because I have been told the most pessimistic is that in 40 years
:29:14. > :29:20.the oil is running out, panic stations! If you were told by the
:29:21. > :29:25.BBC you could only guarantee employment for the next 40 years you
:29:26. > :29:32.would be over the moon. I am talking about in the next five. You need 50%
:29:33. > :29:36.of your revenues to come from oil to continue spending and that is not a
:29:37. > :29:43.guarantee. Of course it is, the minimum survival of the oil is 0
:29:44. > :29:58.years. Please get your viewers to go onto the Internet and look at the
:29:59. > :30:04.website called oilandgas.com. The West Coast has 100 years of oil to
:30:05. > :30:07.be extracted. It hasn't been done because in 1981 Michael Heseltine
:30:08. > :30:15.said we cannot extract the oil because we have Trident going up and
:30:16. > :30:25.down there. Let's get rid of Trident and extract the oil. You are a trot
:30:26. > :30:30.right, why have you failed to learn his famous dictum, socialism in one
:30:31. > :30:35.country is impossible. Revolutions and change are not just single
:30:36. > :30:39.event. What will happen here on Thursday is a democratic revolution.
:30:40. > :30:45.The people are fed up of being patronised and lied to by this mob
:30:46. > :30:50.in Westminster who have used and abused us for far too long. The
:30:51. > :30:54.smaller people now have a voice What about socialism in one
:30:55. > :31:04.country? Mr Trotsky warned you against that. The no campaign
:31:05. > :31:08.represents the past. The yes campaign represents the future. That
:31:09. > :31:13.is the truth of the matter. What we are going to do in an independent
:31:14. > :31:21.Scotland is tackle inequality and a scourge of low pay. If we vote no on
:31:22. > :31:26.Thursday, there will be more low pay on Friday, more poverty and food
:31:27. > :31:32.banks on Friday. I'm not going to be lectured by these big banks, you
:31:33. > :31:41.vote less -- yes and we will leave the country! The food banks will be
:31:42. > :31:45.the ones closing. If you got your way, for the type of Scotland you
:31:46. > :31:51.would like to see, state control of business, nationalisation of the
:31:52. > :31:58.Manx, the roads to Carlisle will be clogged with people
:31:59. > :32:06.Yes, hoping to come into Scotland, because in their hearts, the
:32:07. > :32:11.Scottish people know that England want to see the people having the
:32:12. > :32:14.bottle. The working class people in Liverpool, Newcastle, outside of
:32:15. > :32:18.London, they are saying good on the jocks that are taking on big
:32:19. > :32:22.business. When we are independent and investing in social housing the
:32:23. > :32:27.people of England will say, we can do that as well, and they will
:32:28. > :32:30.rediscover the radical tradition. In wanting to build socialism in one
:32:31. > :32:34.country, it really means you are fighting for the few, rather than
:32:35. > :32:38.the many. You are bailing out of the socialist Battle for Britain. You
:32:39. > :32:46.think it will be easier to make it work. Think globally, act locally
:32:47. > :32:50.and we will build socialism in Scotland but I wanted across the
:32:51. > :32:54.world. I won my brothers and sisters in England and Wales to be
:32:55. > :32:58.encouraged by what we do so they can reject the Westminster consensus as
:32:59. > :33:03.well -- I want. We had the three Stooges coming up to London, three
:33:04. > :33:06.millionaires united on one thing, austerity. Doesn't matter whether Ed
:33:07. > :33:10.Miliband wins the next election he said he would stick to the story
:33:11. > :33:16.spending cuts. Why vote for Ed Miliband? You wouldn't trust him to
:33:17. > :33:20.run a bath, not a country. Let's see if this is realistic, this great
:33:21. > :33:24.socialist vision. At the last Scottish election, the Socialist
:33:25. > :33:30.party got 8000 votes. The Conservatives got 30 times more
:33:31. > :33:34.votes. Where is the appetite in Scotland for your Marxist ideology
:33:35. > :33:37.question we might not win it. But do you know what, see in two years
:33:38. > :33:52.time. See when we have the Scottish general election. You won't -- you
:33:53. > :33:58.are saying you might win and you went to the Holyrood election and
:33:59. > :34:01.got 8000 Pope -- votes. The SNP won a democratic election and then won
:34:02. > :34:05.the 2011 election and you know why they won? Because they picked up the
:34:06. > :34:09.clothes that the Labour Party has thrown away. They picked up the
:34:10. > :34:17.close of social democracy and protecting the health service was --
:34:18. > :34:21.service. There are people in the SNP who believe in public ownership and
:34:22. > :34:24.people in the SNP who believe in the NHS should be written into a
:34:25. > :34:28.constitution as never for sale people in the the SNP that think the
:34:29. > :34:33.Royal mail should return to public ownership. That is there in black
:34:34. > :34:37.and white. Do you agree with George Galloway that this is potentially a
:34:38. > :34:42.crisis for Scottish Labour? Scottish Labour is finished. They are
:34:43. > :34:46.absolutely finished. George is right in that. Scottish Labour is
:34:47. > :34:49.finished. The irony of ironies is, Labour in Scotland has more chance
:34:50. > :34:55.of recovery in an independent Scotland that they have in a no
:34:56. > :34:59.vote. Labour in Scotland in an independent country will have to
:35:00. > :35:03.rediscover the traditions of Keir Hardie, the ideas of Jimmy Maxon,
:35:04. > :35:10.because right now, they are to the right of the SNP as a political
:35:11. > :35:14.party. I understand the socialist vision, but it is where the appetite
:35:15. > :35:20.is. And you look at the independence people in Scotland. One of your
:35:21. > :35:26.colleagues, Brian Souter, a man who fought against the appeal -- repeal
:35:27. > :35:30.of homosexual rights in Scotland. Another of your allies would seem to
:35:31. > :35:37.be Rupert Murdoch, the man who engineered your downfall. You say he
:35:38. > :35:42.engineered your downfall, but I m still here and his newspaper has
:35:43. > :35:46.closed. Whether it Rupert Murdoch, Brian Souter, or any other
:35:47. > :35:49.millionaire supporting independence, I couldn't care less. This boat on
:35:50. > :35:56.Thursday is not about millionaires, it is about the millions. -- this
:35:57. > :36:01.vote. We will not be abused any young -- longer. Would you rather
:36:02. > :36:06.not have their support? I couldn't care about the support. You know who
:36:07. > :36:09.is supporting the union. It is the unions of the big businesses, the
:36:10. > :36:17.BNP, UKIP, they are the ones who support it. You are giving me a
:36:18. > :36:20.stray that has wandered into the campaign and are you seriously going
:36:21. > :36:24.to argue with me that the establishment isn't united to try
:36:25. > :36:29.and save the union? That is what they are trying to be. The BBC, you
:36:30. > :36:32.have been a disgrace in your coverage of the campaign. Not you
:36:33. > :36:37.personally. You don't have editorial control. The BBC coverage,
:36:38. > :36:43.generally, has been a disgrace and the people. Oil and gas, go and look
:36:44. > :36:47.at that, why is that not feature. Why is the idea of 100 years of oil
:36:48. > :36:51.not featured in the campaign. Because the BBC does not want to see
:36:52. > :36:56.it. Are you getting in your excuses if you lose? You better be kidding.
:36:57. > :37:02.Is this the face of somebody looking to lose. We are going to win, 6 /40.
:37:03. > :37:07.Absolutely. There is a momentum that you guys are not seeing on the
:37:08. > :37:11.working-class housing estates. Working class people are fed up
:37:12. > :37:19.being taken for granted fed up with the lives of people dragging us into
:37:20. > :37:23.tax cuts, bedroom tax for the poor. They will have power on Thursday,
:37:24. > :37:27.and they will use it and vote for freedom. Are you happy with the way
:37:28. > :37:32.the BBC has treated you today? So far, yes. I have still not been
:37:33. > :37:37.offered a Coffey, but that might happen. That is an obvious example
:37:38. > :37:47.of our bias. Tommy, we will speak to you later with George Galloway.
:37:48. > :37:50.Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics here in the East.
:37:51. > :37:54.We're back after an extraordinary summer bre`k with
:37:55. > :37:58.one of our Conservative MPs causing a political storm by defecthng to
:37:59. > :38:08.Could benefit changes for students with disabilities mean more of them
:38:09. > :38:16.And whatever happens in the referendum on Scottish independence,
:38:17. > :38:22.will it eventually mean powdr over our own affairs here in the East?
:38:23. > :38:26.Regions such as ours, which have a distinct cultural identitx
:38:27. > :38:30.from the rest of the South Dast will start pressuring for this.
:38:31. > :38:41.But let's start with the by`election in Clacton.
:38:42. > :38:44.It's now just over two weeks since Douglas Carswell, the sitting
:38:45. > :38:48.MP, lobbed a grenade into the world of politics by not only
:38:49. > :38:54.defecting from the Tories to UKIP, but also standing down as an MP
:38:55. > :38:59.The main parties all have their candidates in place, `fter
:39:00. > :39:04.the Conservatives chose thehrs at a public meeting on Thursdax night.
:39:05. > :39:08.He's Giles Watling, an actor and a local councillor
:39:09. > :39:11.We'll hear from the other c`ndidates in a moment, but first Mr W`tling,
:39:12. > :39:19.We now have the fastest`growing economy in the G7.
:39:20. > :39:24.We're beginning to sort out the borders.
:39:25. > :39:29.And I want to go ahead and be part of that team to do that.
:39:30. > :39:32.It's important for Clacton, we have got a great future here, it is a
:39:33. > :39:35.great place here, it's a sp`rkling jewel in the crown of Essex.
:39:36. > :39:40.They want the changes that H think this country desperately nedds and
:39:41. > :39:44.that the Westminster establhshment is not able to give them.
:39:45. > :39:46.Do you still think you've done the right thing?
:39:47. > :39:48.Do you know, the response I've had from local
:39:49. > :39:55.people has removed any elemdnt of doubt that I might have had.
:39:56. > :39:58.Europe hasn't come up on the doorstep, hardly at `ll.
:39:59. > :40:01.We are talking about those hssues that really matter, it is about jobs
:40:02. > :40:05.and the lack of investment in Clacton over the years.
:40:06. > :40:08.It has been left behind, There is no economic recovery here.
:40:09. > :40:15.But I know the British people actually like
:40:16. > :40:21.And basically, the underdogs will come fighting back.
:40:22. > :40:24.I think the message is, trust the Lib Dems because they have
:40:25. > :40:27.actually got a good track rdcord and we haven't shouted about it
:40:28. > :40:35.Andrew Sinclair has been spdnding a lot of the last fortnight
:40:36. > :40:39.So what is this election really about?
:40:40. > :40:41.Well, the national press and the Westminster village keep trying
:40:42. > :40:45.to make out this is to do whth Europe and splits in the Tory party
:40:46. > :40:48.over when to call a referendum, but no one is talking about that
:40:49. > :40:54.I think this election has more to do with process than polhcy.
:40:55. > :40:57.If you look at the reasons that Douglas Carswell gave for joining
:40:58. > :41:04.Instead, he talks a lot abott local issues and I know that for the last
:41:05. > :41:07.year or so he has felt very frustrated that when it has come to
:41:08. > :41:10.important local issues, things like GP shortages which plays very big
:41:11. > :41:15.here, plans to build more houses and things,
:41:16. > :41:19.he's felt that local people and even himself, despite how hard they have
:41:20. > :41:22.shouted, no one at Westminster has been listening to them.
:41:23. > :41:26.The other thing is that Douglas Carswell is a great believer
:41:27. > :41:29.in MPs being accountable to the people who have elected them.
:41:30. > :41:32.He has always believed in the right to recall, the ability to c`ll a
:41:33. > :41:35.by`election if constituents are not happy with their MP and holding open
:41:36. > :41:41.Now the Tory party have toydd with this idea,
:41:42. > :41:44.but he has always thought that they are not committed enough to it.
:41:45. > :41:48.So, what do all the other local Tory MPs make of this?
:41:49. > :41:51.Well, I have found no one alongst any Tory MPs in
:41:52. > :41:55.our region who is openly supporting him or who agrees with him.
:41:56. > :41:59.On the whole they are largely disappointed,
:42:00. > :42:02.especially Eurosceptic MPs, who feel they have lost one of their own
:42:03. > :42:05.Having said that, if you set aside the Europe issue,
:42:06. > :42:08.I have spoken to someone normally very loyal MPs who said we `ctually
:42:09. > :42:15.A couple of MPs have said that if you are not part of the Cameron
:42:16. > :42:19.or Osborne clique it is verx hard to get heard at Westminster
:42:20. > :42:22.and it's very hard to get ftnding for your area.
:42:23. > :42:25.They do say they have a degree of sympathy with him on that.
:42:26. > :42:27.And campaigning really has started now.
:42:28. > :42:30.Yes, now we have a Tory c`ndidate in place, the four main candidates
:42:31. > :42:33.Serious campaigning can get underway.
:42:34. > :42:36.So far, it has been pretty low`key and I think it will probablx stay
:42:37. > :42:39.low`key until after the Scottish referendum, because everyond's sent
:42:40. > :42:42.their resources up there for the next week or so.
:42:43. > :42:45.Once the Scottish referendul is over, I think this will become
:42:46. > :42:53.Let's meet our guests now for this week.
:42:54. > :42:56.Iain Stewart, Conservative LP for Milton Keynes, who grew up
:42:57. > :43:00.And Robin Tilbrook, the Chahrman of the English Democrats Party which
:43:01. > :43:08.is based in Essex and campahgns for an English Parliament.
:43:09. > :43:15.Are you putting up a candid`te? I am certainly considering doing so and
:43:16. > :43:19.we will make the decision this weekend only have a conference. Do
:43:20. > :43:28.you agree with what and you were saying? I think it is to sole extent
:43:29. > :43:33.about Europe and that questhon. The wider national questions. All
:43:34. > :43:39.elections are to some extent about local issues. Perhaps it certainly
:43:40. > :43:44.hasn't gelled as a campaign as yet. I must say I have some symp`thy with
:43:45. > :43:51.Douglas Carswell and the wax he behaved in designing. Standhng and
:43:52. > :43:56.creating a by`election, bec`use people, many people will have voted
:43:57. > :44:01.to him as a Conservative and so it is right, I think, that people are
:44:02. > :44:07.given the chance to vote ag`in. Personally, I think Clapton is
:44:08. > :44:13.potentially a good area bec`use there are a lot of people there as
:44:14. > :44:19.the 2011 census results show, who feel it's important to be English
:44:20. > :44:25.not British. Iain Stuart, I said that he got a political grenade into
:44:26. > :44:30.the political world. That you have any idea this was coming? No it was
:44:31. > :44:38.very surprising. Only a few months ago does your scars with was saying
:44:39. > :44:42.`` Douglas Carswell was sayhng he agreed negotiating our membdr ship
:44:43. > :44:48.again and going to the publhc in a referendum. He was in favour of
:44:49. > :44:51.that. As William Hague said at Prime Minister's Questions this mtst be
:44:52. > :44:55.the first case of someone ldaving a party because the absolutelx agreed
:44:56. > :45:03.with it. There is some bemusement about his move and also somd anger
:45:04. > :45:09.because he has turnaround and bitten deep head of the party who gave him
:45:10. > :45:18.his political career. Was this a gimmick, this primaries ide`? Is it
:45:19. > :45:23.a gimmick? It's not. We havd used that method in number of selections,
:45:24. > :45:28.starting with the MPV Totnes in Devon in the last parliament and a
:45:29. > :45:31.good number of card that re`d candidates for this election have
:45:32. > :45:35.been selected as way. Dougl`s Carswell says he is all in favour
:45:36. > :45:41.these primaries but yet his party booted out the candidate thdy had
:45:42. > :45:46.already selected that seat `nd imposed one. It doesn't seel to be a
:45:47. > :45:48.particular act of principle. I thought it would have been
:45:49. > :45:54.interesting is the Conservative Party had put up the previots deputy
:45:55. > :46:00.leader of UKIP and when the other way. That would have led to a much
:46:01. > :46:05.more interesting contrast. He was elected to serve in the European
:46:06. > :46:08.Parliament, he was also my thought. There is an issue with having a
:46:09. > :46:12.double mandate as Roger Heller found out of his cost when he was a
:46:13. > :46:18.candidate for UKIP, people did not like that. A politician frol one
:46:19. > :46:21.parliament would just be ond in another. Are you going to bd
:46:22. > :46:26.campaigning? I was there on Thursday already with many of my cat do like
:46:27. > :46:34.a colleague to congratulate Giles on his selection. One thing on the
:46:35. > :46:38.primaries, if the Labour Party said there are two candidates or another
:46:39. > :46:41.party said that, one of thel we don't bet the candidates of comedy
:46:42. > :46:48.that we quite like, let's go and fight to him. Does that happen?
:46:49. > :46:50.Certainly in America, it is commonplace and they have
:46:51. > :46:57.primaries. The opposition p`rty wades in and votes of the wdaker
:46:58. > :47:02.candidate. Does it bother you? There are always risks. The party locally
:47:03. > :47:06.dropped a short list and sahd it be content with only one of thd
:47:07. > :47:10.candidates on the base of which two excellent people went through to the
:47:11. > :47:16.primary meeting on Thursday night. Giles was the winner. Both were
:47:17. > :47:18.strong people. We will hear more shortly.
:47:19. > :47:21.It's that time of year when thousands of parents are packing
:47:22. > :47:24.It's never easy but what if the young person has
:47:25. > :47:28.In the past those young people were entitled to
:47:29. > :47:31.an allowance to help meet the cost of any special help they nedded
:47:32. > :47:33.But in April the government announced
:47:34. > :47:37.some changes, passing responsibility to the universities themselves.
:47:38. > :47:42.Rosemary Howell is registered blind.
:47:43. > :47:45.She has the rare eye diseasd amridia which means She has no iris in her
:47:46. > :47:51.I struggle reading, I don't write anything.
:47:52. > :48:01.I use computers quite a lot to take notes and browse the wdb.
:48:02. > :48:04.Rosemary will have to use a specially adapted laptop with
:48:05. > :48:09.She would also need a note`taker and a personal assistant to help
:48:10. > :48:13.guide her while she studying Event Management at the University
:48:14. > :48:20.I know from other visually hmpaired people who I met at college that
:48:21. > :48:22.they are put off from going to university because
:48:23. > :48:26.they know that they will not get all the equipment or human help that
:48:27. > :48:31.Here at the University of Hertfordshire, they are proud
:48:32. > :48:35.that disabled students outpdrform non`disabled students.
:48:36. > :48:37.That is something they are keen to continue.
:48:38. > :48:44.There is a consultation takhng place now but it's too late,
:48:45. > :48:49.What we would have liked to have seen was more consultation
:48:50. > :48:55.They are still very unclear what the changes will mean.
:48:56. > :48:59.But they are worried that it could cost universities around ?100,0 0
:49:00. > :49:06.It's really hard to say how well`prepared we are
:49:07. > :49:13.There are 4,315 full and part`time undergraduates
:49:14. > :49:18.That is about 5% of the region's students in total.
:49:19. > :49:21.Universities didn't necessarily have the capacity to implement
:49:22. > :49:24.the same kind of provision that the DSA ctrrently
:49:25. > :49:27.gives and there are issues `round the timescale of the reforms and
:49:28. > :49:32.Rosemarie counts herself lucky to be going to university
:49:33. > :49:37.and disabled students need `ll the help they can get.
:49:38. > :49:41.Being visually impaired, it's ten times worse
:49:42. > :49:44.at getting a job as a normal person because, as much as people say they
:49:45. > :49:50.don't discriminate, they actually do because who would employ
:49:51. > :49:57.a blind person because they don t know what they can actually do.
:49:58. > :50:00.We were hoping to put some of the points to the
:50:01. > :50:02.Universities Minister, Greg Clarke, but he was not available.
:50:03. > :50:06.So the Department for Busindss, Innovation Skills sent us this
:50:07. > :50:09.statement and it appears th`t they have changed their minds.
:50:10. > :50:54.Could I just say, this is a department which in Scotland is part
:50:55. > :50:57.of the Scottish Government. In England, we have the British
:50:58. > :51:01.government deciding what happened for us. It is part of our issue that
:51:02. > :51:05.students are not being propdrly looked after in England. I know you
:51:06. > :51:11.are going to talk about the subject in detail and in particular, but it
:51:12. > :51:15.does sound a U`turn in parthcular doesn't it. I think if you look at
:51:16. > :51:19.the process of government where people make sensible constrtctive
:51:20. > :51:22.criticism of the details of the policy, the government does take
:51:23. > :51:24.notice of it and make appropriate adjustments. I will come back again
:51:25. > :51:26.in just a little while. Right,
:51:27. > :51:27.let's talk about Scotland now. One thing is certain,
:51:28. > :51:30.the vote on independence appears to But whatever happens on Thursday,
:51:31. > :51:33.there is no doubt many of the arguments
:51:34. > :51:36.about local decision making are not We asked Professor Paul Whiteley,
:51:37. > :51:41.from the University of Essex, what it could mean here
:51:42. > :51:45.in the east of England. Region such as ours,
:51:46. > :51:47.which have a distinct cultural identity, from the rest of the South
:51:48. > :51:51.East, will start pressing for this. We want to do something abott the
:51:52. > :51:57.problems of infrastructure here problems of broadband, railways all
:51:58. > :52:00.the things that we discuss. That kind of feeling is going
:52:01. > :53:11.to emerge gradually over tile. that is much stronger
:53:12. > :53:16.and demands political recognition. One of the backgrounds for
:53:17. > :54:37.the present situation we're in is that the English devolution must be
:54:38. > :54:43.addressed. It is more compldx than just looking at the regions of
:54:44. > :54:46.England, because what are they? I represent in Milton Keynes
:54:47. > :54:51.constituency, notionally in the south`east of England, but we are
:54:52. > :54:56.covered by BBC East, we havd a lot of links at Northampton in the East
:54:57. > :55:00.Midlands. What exactly are the regions? What I want to see is
:55:01. > :55:04.further empowerment of local government. We have seen sole moves
:55:05. > :55:09.in that direction with some cities taking on directly elected layors
:55:10. > :55:14.with a lot of devolution in transport spending. I think that is
:55:15. > :55:17.a process that started and H think there is room for a sensibld debate
:55:18. > :55:23.about how that continue. And you would support that, would you? Is a
:55:24. > :55:28.general direction of travel, yes. I don't there is one cigar model that
:55:29. > :55:34.can be imposed on England. Ht doesn't fit neatly into reghons ``
:55:35. > :55:39.one single model, we had a referendum on this a few ye`rs ago
:55:40. > :55:42.and it was rejected by 80% of the voters. People don't want to see
:55:43. > :55:46.another tranche of politici`ns elected to the once we're rdady
:55:47. > :55:51.have. But there are ways yot can improve on how we organise things.
:55:52. > :55:55.Robin, you had better tell ts how you stand on Scottish devolttion. We
:55:56. > :56:00.are in favour of the Scots voting yes and also that will be
:56:01. > :56:09.independent England. Would xou go further? All the regions in the
:56:10. > :56:14.country having their own... I think the idea of regional identity sounds
:56:15. > :56:17.totally bogus in England. Why? Because there isn't a regional
:56:18. > :56:26.identity in that way. What we have... We have just heard from the
:56:27. > :56:31.professor saying, yes there is! My family are from East Anglia the many
:56:32. > :56:35.debt `` generations, there hs any East Anglia, but there is no idea
:56:36. > :56:43.then Eastern region. So East Anglia would have its own... At th`t is
:56:44. > :56:47.more the counties. That is rooted in history. That is not to say dizzy
:56:48. > :56:51.equivalency Scottish and Welsh devolution. Scottish devolution was
:56:52. > :56:57.not about regions, but about nations. Our nation is Englhsh and
:56:58. > :57:02.our country is England. It hs not the or the East of England. All the
:57:03. > :57:08.south`west,... You have a Scot sitting next to you, who stood in
:57:09. > :57:14.Scotland. My nationality is British. When you sit in Scotland, dhd you
:57:15. > :57:20.mention anything about Brithshness? I have all been perfectly clear
:57:21. > :57:25.about my identity. I was born in Scotland to a Dutch family H had my
:57:26. > :57:29.school education there, but University in England `` to a
:57:30. > :57:38.Scottish family. I regard mxself as English. It is like being a husband
:57:39. > :57:43.and a far the `` father, thdy are different but you can be both. So
:57:44. > :57:49.you are against more power for the regions, but you supported. I am not
:57:50. > :57:53.in favour of any form of regional government, but I think in Scotland,
:57:54. > :57:57.there is transport planning, some of the city regions in the north`west
:57:58. > :58:01.of England do have more control over how they set policy. At
:58:02. > :58:03.administrative level it is not a problem.
:58:04. > :58:07.OK, from Scotland to the Shhp of the Fens and much more in otr round
:58:08. > :58:14.Health bosses have ruled out downgrading maternity and children's
:58:15. > :58:19.departments at both Bedford Hospital and Milton Keynes General.
:58:20. > :58:23.Upgrading the rail line to Norfolk was on the mind of Norwich LP,
:58:24. > :58:28.She briefed the Rail Ministdr about the catalogue
:58:29. > :58:33.I was making sure the Rail Linister knows exactly how bad it has been
:58:34. > :58:37.Controversial plans for a bypass around Ely havd been
:58:38. > :58:40.approved, despite a protest that claimed it would ruin
:58:41. > :58:47.The Community Secretary, Erhc Pickles, could have the fin`l say.
:58:48. > :58:50.At Prime Minister's Questions, the MP for Colchester raised
:58:51. > :58:54.the risk to security and defence which could be caused
:58:55. > :59:00.The garrison town of Colchester has welcomed thousands of Scotthsh
:59:01. > :59:10.While Bedford's Richard Fuller celebrated
:59:11. > :59:15.the 60th wedding anniversarx of his Scottish mother and English father.
:59:16. > :59:18.In their union, as in the other union, they are
:59:19. > :59:37.That is the week in 60 seconds. Are you looking forward to this week, to
:59:38. > :59:43.the vote on Thursday? Or ard you nervous? I am nervous because I
:59:44. > :59:48.think so much that state, the future of what I regard as the world's most
:59:49. > :59:52.successful political, econolic and social union is under threat. So
:59:53. > :59:58.you're nervous and you are dxcited? I am. The only argument I h`ve it
:59:59. > :00:04.heard that is rational for maintaining the union with senior
:00:05. > :00:08.politicians has been somethhng about keeping Scotland in the union
:00:09. > :00:13.because it enables us to punch enough weight on the world's stage.
:00:14. > :00:18.I don't that is the role as a government of a country of our level
:00:19. > :00:21.in the world, now. That is ` post`imperial delusions of grandeur
:00:22. > :00:28.as far as I'm concerned. I don't agree with that at all. Our
:00:29. > :00:32.membership of the UN and thd Security Council. I think wd need
:00:33. > :00:32.it. Thank you both of you for being here.
:00:33. > :00:36.You can keep in touch via otr website where you will also find
:00:37. > :00:39.links to Deborah McGurran's blog for all the latest political updates.
:00:40. > :00:41.We're back at the same time next week, when
:00:42. > :00:47.we'll be looking at the Labour Party Conference, now back to Andrew.
:00:48. > :00:52.The last time a sewer was built in London was 150 years ago, otherwise
:00:53. > :00:57.we would have a dirty River Thames. Andrew, back to you.
:00:58. > :01:02.Can the No campaign still pull it off?
:01:03. > :01:06.And even if they do is the whole of the UK now on the brink
:01:07. > :01:23.I'm joined now by John McTernan former adviser to Gordon Brown
:01:24. > :01:26.and Tony Blair, Alex Bell, former Head of Policy for the SNP
:01:27. > :01:28.and Lindsay McIntosh, the Times Scottish Political Editor
:01:29. > :01:34.And I'm delighted that Tommy and George have stayed too.
:01:35. > :01:43.No fighting has broken out either. Where
:01:44. > :01:43.No fighting has broken out either. have three full days to go
:01:44. > :01:46.No fighting has broken out either. polling day. What is the state of
:01:47. > :01:54.play? I think the poll of polls is accurate. 49 and 51%. What is vital
:01:55. > :01:58.is to bring the undecided voters in, and they properly have about
:01:59. > :02:01.500,000. I think there are a lot of undecided people. I think they know
:02:02. > :02:07.which way they are leaning, but they haven't jumped. The hope of the no
:02:08. > :02:13.campaign is that they will go for the status quo on Thursday. How do
:02:14. > :02:17.you assess the state of the campaign now? The crucial thing is the big
:02:18. > :02:26.swing. The swing has come towards yes, so will the momentum carry it
:02:27. > :02:30.over the line? I will think it does, because it is an antiestablishment
:02:31. > :02:35.swell, and its people responding to standard Western as the politicians
:02:36. > :02:40.and saying that they want a new way -- Westminster politicians. I think
:02:41. > :02:44.that yes will sneak it. A referendum can be more important than a general
:02:45. > :02:49.election, and the Yes campaign have had the momentum. This was the week
:02:50. > :02:53.the momentum stopped. We started the week looking as though yes were
:02:54. > :02:56.going into the lead and then it stopped and most of the recent polls
:02:57. > :03:02.show a distinct lead for the no campaign. A distinct lead? It is one
:03:03. > :03:07.or two points. It is six in one poll, two in another, aiding
:03:08. > :03:11.another. The poll of polls is a good way of measuring, and is it
:03:12. > :03:15.statistically Nick -- nip and tuck? It is the week the momentum stopped.
:03:16. > :03:19.About a fifth of the electorate That will be a quarter of the
:03:20. > :03:23.turnout have voted already, by postal vote, and they are running
:03:24. > :03:28.very strongly towards no, so there is a whole bank of votes there. The
:03:29. > :03:32.postal votes are skewed to the over 60s, and that is the demographic
:03:33. > :03:38.that the Yes campaign have had the biggest trouble with. Absolutely,
:03:39. > :03:42.the Yes campaign faced a challenge amongst the 16 and 18-year-olds and
:03:43. > :03:47.always based challenge with the older voters. Trust me, I was the
:03:48. > :03:52.decision the day the civil servants made it possible for the 16 to
:03:53. > :03:55.18-year-olds to vote, and we said there was a victory for the no
:03:56. > :04:02.campaign in that alone. The young tend to be conservative by nature. I
:04:03. > :04:10.think again that to say that the momentum has stopped when you had a
:04:11. > :04:14.20 point lead, this is a referendum whether people will speak and they
:04:15. > :04:19.will be heard. Except for the one poll which needs a huge health
:04:20. > :04:22.warning because of the size of the sample, the momentum is
:04:23. > :04:27.unquestionably all the way through August is going in the direction of
:04:28. > :04:33.yes. It hasn't quite continue to get to the 55/45 four yes that Alex
:04:34. > :04:37.Salmond thinks will be the result. I would agree with John. This was the
:04:38. > :04:43.momentum stalled. We saw the three leaders coming up, and that kept
:04:44. > :04:47.Alex Salmond off the front pages on the television and we had a raft of
:04:48. > :04:49.economic warnings which, although they were dismissed as
:04:50. > :04:54.scaremongering, they will have had a lot of traction with voters. What
:04:55. > :05:00.does the no campaign have to do in the final three days? It has to
:05:01. > :05:04.focus on the undecided, relentlessly. It has to do stick to
:05:05. > :05:07.the question of risk and keep pushing back on Alex Salmond to say
:05:08. > :05:12.it doesn't matter if the banks leave, it will all be all right on
:05:13. > :05:15.the night. The huge question amongst the undecided voters is about the
:05:16. > :05:21.economy. It is about jobs and currency, about business. That risk
:05:22. > :05:24.is what will crystallise in the ballot box on Thursday and that has
:05:25. > :05:29.to be the focus. What does the Yes campaign have to do? It has to drive
:05:30. > :05:33.home that the swing to the Yes campaign is motivated by people who
:05:34. > :05:36.want a different politics. They have decided amongst themselves that they
:05:37. > :05:41.want to change Scotland. The unfortunate thing is, even though
:05:42. > :05:44.the no campaign has had the chance to put up after proposals, they have
:05:45. > :05:48.failed. The Scottish people want their powers were a purpose and they
:05:49. > :05:52.say that only the Yes campaign can deliver that. There will be two days
:05:53. > :05:55.of relentless campaigning from today, Monday and Tuesday, then the
:05:56. > :06:01.media, the newspapers, including your own, will come out with the
:06:02. > :06:06.final poll, the ones that will be the closest to the day that the
:06:07. > :06:09.Scots actually go and vote. I think we will see more polling this week,
:06:10. > :06:12.but what is interesting is the extent to which the pollsters are
:06:13. > :06:16.picking up what is going on in the street. We know we have a huge
:06:17. > :06:21.number of voters who have never voted before and are not engage with
:06:22. > :06:25.politics, so what will they do? The third candidate in the election if
:06:26. > :06:28.I can would in this way, are the polls. They might have a lot of
:06:29. > :06:32.questions to answer on Friday morning. We were talking earlier
:06:33. > :06:37.with George and Tommy about the Labour Party's consequences in all
:06:38. > :06:41.of this. Gordon Brown, of course, has had a bit of a second coming as
:06:42. > :06:44.a result of this referendum. I just want to play a clip of Gordon Brown
:06:45. > :06:55.during the campaign and get a reaction. And I say this to Alex
:06:56. > :06:58.Salmond himself. Up until today I am outside front line politics. If he
:06:59. > :07:02.continues to peddle this deception, that the Scottish Parliament under
:07:03. > :07:06.his leadership, and he cannot do anything to improve the health
:07:07. > :07:13.service until he has a separate state, then I will want to join Joe
:07:14. > :07:17.Hanlon want in and securing the return of a Labour government as
:07:18. > :07:24.quickly as possible -- Johann Lamont. That was seen by some people
:07:25. > :07:27.as Gordon Brown implying he might stand for the Scottish Parliament.
:07:28. > :07:34.Whether it is yes or no, is Gordon Brown the saviour of Scottish
:07:35. > :07:36.Labour? I did a double black the other night -- double act with him
:07:37. > :07:41.the other night, and I must say he was a big beast all over again. He
:07:42. > :07:47.crossed the stage Meli dealt with the audience brilliantly. He has a
:07:48. > :07:51.certain presence, Gordon Brown, but he would really have to reinvent
:07:52. > :07:57.himself quite considerably. He is capable of doing, but the man who
:07:58. > :08:00.was the biographer of Jimmy Maxton, who pulled together the original red
:08:01. > :08:05.paper on Scotland, he would have to be that Gordon Brown rather than the
:08:06. > :08:09.Gordon Brown of some more melancholy events later. Tommy, you have both
:08:10. > :08:13.been critical of the state of the Scottish Labour Party. Rather than
:08:14. > :08:16.looking to Gordon Brown, which might be an interim solution, doesn't
:08:17. > :08:21.Scottish Labour have to find a new generation of people to reignite it?
:08:22. > :08:26.What George and I are agreed on and you have to remember this question
:08:27. > :08:28.of independence see us disagreeing passionately, and in most other
:08:29. > :08:32.things we find ourselves in agreement, one thing is clear,
:08:33. > :08:39.Scottish Labour is finished. They have lost the heart and soul of
:08:40. > :08:42.Scotland. The fact that we are discussing with four days to go an
:08:43. > :08:47.independence referendum that is neck and neck, Labour have failed
:08:48. > :08:50.miserably, absolutely miserably because they have given up
:08:51. > :08:54.everything they stood for. The SNP has picked it up. They have just
:08:55. > :08:59.taken on the bank -- mantle of a left of centre party and are picking
:09:00. > :09:03.up support. Gordon and the rest in my opinion, they represent the past.
:09:04. > :09:06.The yes vote on the Yes campaign represents the future. What do you
:09:07. > :09:12.say to that? There is nothing socialist about an SNP that wants to
:09:13. > :09:16.cut business tax by 3% in the pan. There is nothing socialist about an
:09:17. > :09:21.SNP destroying further education so they can give middle-class people
:09:22. > :09:25.free education. The Labour Party is alive and kicking. You can see if it
:09:26. > :09:32.is Gordon Brown, or Jim Murphy with the 100 days tour. But I hesitate to
:09:33. > :09:35.use this word, but they are kind of privatised from the Scottish Labour
:09:36. > :09:40.Party. They have rode their own fallow. Jim Murphy was on the stump
:09:41. > :09:45.because official Scottish Labour did not want him leading their campaign.
:09:46. > :09:48.Gordon Brown was, I think, kept off the stage until it became so
:09:49. > :09:54.critical that he had to be brought back. I agree with John, the SNP
:09:55. > :10:00.talks left but acts right. That is before they get state powers. That
:10:01. > :10:04.is what is exciting about the referendum, it's not about the SNP,
:10:05. > :10:07.it's about the people deciding. What we have heard so far in the
:10:08. > :10:10.referendum campaign is that there is a desperate yearning in the
:10:11. > :10:14.electorate for real politics, purposeful politics and for the
:10:15. > :10:18.people to be represented. It is probably to the eternal shame of
:10:19. > :10:21.labour that they gave up that role and other people are now taking it
:10:22. > :10:26.upon themselves. How would you assess the state of the Labour
:10:27. > :10:30.Party? The problem is that it was demolished by the SNP in 2011 and
:10:31. > :10:33.what they should have done since then and in other circumstances is
:10:34. > :10:36.take a real look within themselves and brought forward new talent and
:10:37. > :10:40.policies and watch out what they stood for. They've been unable to do
:10:41. > :10:47.that because they are locked in a constitutional row. It is the plan
:10:48. > :10:50.of the Nationalists to fight the first Scottish general election as
:10:51. > :10:53.an independent nation as a nationalist party with its own
:10:54. > :10:58.programme. You don't all go your own way. Why don't you do that? You have
:10:59. > :11:04.more on your main reason to be, so why not go, left, right and centre
:11:05. > :11:07.question you are presuming you don't go the one-way. I do not see the
:11:08. > :11:12.function of the SNP after the yes vote. I think it is clear that there
:11:13. > :11:16.is an SNP under Nicola Sturgeon an SNP which attracts votes from the
:11:17. > :11:19.left and that is the one for me Whether that is called the SNP or
:11:20. > :11:24.something else, I don't know. I think the assumption that we are
:11:25. > :11:32.going into a mirror of old politics in a new world is just fundamentally
:11:33. > :11:35.flawed. That is interesting. Let's just bring in the English
:11:36. > :11:40.dimensional. In many ways, England has not spoken in this referendum
:11:41. > :11:43.campaign. Whether it is yes or no, it will, and to give you a flavour
:11:44. > :11:48.of what some in England might be thinking was saying, here is a clip
:11:49. > :11:53.from John Redwood. We are fed up with this lopsided devolution, this
:11:54. > :11:55.unfair devolution. Scotland gets first-class Devolution, Wales gets
:11:56. > :11:59.second-class devolution and England gets nothing. If Wales wants the
:12:00. > :12:04.same as us, they should have it and then there would be commonality so
:12:05. > :12:07.we could discuss and decide in our own countries, in our own assemblies
:12:08. > :12:14.in Parliament, all those things that are devolved. George, it was clear
:12:15. > :12:16.that if Scotland voted yes for independence it has huge
:12:17. > :12:21.implications for England than the UK, but it's also clear particularly
:12:22. > :12:26.after Gordon Brown's intervention, even if it is no, it has huge
:12:27. > :12:30.applications. You are, I suggest, agreeing with John Redwood that
:12:31. > :12:35.there should be an English boys It would be a step too far for me to
:12:36. > :12:40.agree with him -- English voice I appreciate I might have gone out on
:12:41. > :12:45.a limb. He is the voice of Mars the Balkan from Mars. My own
:12:46. > :12:50.constituents in Bradford are asking, what about us? All these things
:12:51. > :12:54.being done, all the extra mile is being travel to Scotland, what about
:12:55. > :13:00.us? Labour would be well advised to adjust quickly on this so that the
:13:01. > :13:06.John Redwood types do not steal the show. England has yes to use -- yet
:13:07. > :13:10.to speak. It's interesting when you hear a Labour backbencher in
:13:11. > :13:16.Scotland talk about a command paper. He is not in government. Gordon
:13:17. > :13:18.Brown is going round Scotland promising things and he has
:13:19. > :13:24.absolutely no chance of delivering them. The MPs in England will say,
:13:25. > :13:27.hey, what are you talking about We have never been discussed with that?
:13:28. > :13:32.We have not agreed with that. The only way people in Scotland will get
:13:33. > :13:38.the powers they deserve is by voting yes. Crystal ball time, Tommy, you
:13:39. > :13:43.think it is 60/40. I will stick with it, because we have an unprecedented
:13:44. > :13:45.election. 97% of Scotland is registered to vote. The working
:13:46. > :13:54.class will vote in numbers never voted before. George? 55/45 for our
:13:55. > :13:58.side. And if there is a rogue poll, the tek Levesley polled --
:13:59. > :14:02.technically flawed poll, which should not be published because it
:14:03. > :14:05.is so flawed, then we would be stretching towards what I am
:14:06. > :14:11.predicting already. I think in the last few days we will reach that.
:14:12. > :14:15.Come on. If the no campaign can get the silent majority out, they will
:14:16. > :14:21.edge it. You think they will win, but how much? They cannot give up in
:14:22. > :14:27.a second, a moment or a mile. It is that close. It will be won by the
:14:28. > :14:38.passionate view. I will go for a narrow yes victory. I'm the George,
:14:39. > :14:41.53 or 54% in favour of Joe -- no. -- I am with George. I will leave you
:14:42. > :14:42.to argue about that later. Thank you for being with us on the special
:14:43. > :14:45.Sunday politics from Edinburgh. That's all from us today
:14:46. > :14:46.in Scotland. Don't forget the Daily Politics will
:14:47. > :14:49.have continuing coverage of the referendum campaign all this
:14:50. > :14:51.week on BBC2 at midday. On Thursday night Huw Edwards will
:14:52. > :14:55.be in Glasgow and I will be in London to bring you live coverage
:14:56. > :14:58.of the results on BBC1 from 10. 0 pm on a historic night for Scotland
:14:59. > :15:02.and the rest of the United Kingdom. And I'll be back next Sunday
:15:03. > :15:05.when we're live from the Labour Unless, of course, the referendum
:15:06. > :15:12.result is so tumultuous even the Remember if it's Sunday,
:15:13. > :15:18.it's the Sunday Politics.