:00:36. > :00:38.Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics.
:00:39. > :00:41.Theresa May says she wants to help people who are
:00:42. > :00:44."just about managing" - so should she reverse
:00:45. > :00:46.George Osborne's cuts to benefits that are supposed to help people
:00:47. > :00:53.Prominent London Imam Shakeel Begg is an extremist speaker,
:00:54. > :00:56.says the High Court, after claims made on this programme.
:00:57. > :01:01.So why is Mr Begg still being allowed to advise the Police?
:01:02. > :01:06.Hillary Clinton fights back over the FBI's renewed investigation
:01:07. > :01:09.into her use of a private email server - is this the boost
:01:10. > :01:14.Shoring up our coastline. chances of winning the White House?
:01:15. > :01:16.A pioneering scheme to save a giant gas plant
:01:17. > :01:24.Now it is just a question of building that runway with the
:01:25. > :01:31.political problems that lie ahead. And haunting the studio
:01:32. > :01:33.on this Halloween weekend, the most terrifying political
:01:34. > :01:35.panel in the business - Tim 'Ghost' Shipman,
:01:36. > :01:38.'Eerie' Isabel Oakeshott and First this morning, two
:01:39. > :01:47.new models of car to be built, securing 7,000 jobs at the car plant
:01:48. > :01:50.in Sunderland and a further 28, 00 The news from Nissan on Thursday
:01:51. > :01:57.was seized on by Leave campaigners as evidence that the British
:01:58. > :01:59.economy is in rude health This morning, the Business
:02:00. > :02:03.Secretary, Greg Clark, was asked what assurances were given
:02:04. > :02:06.to the Japanese firm's bosses Well, it's in no-one's the interest
:02:07. > :02:13.for there to be tariff barriers to the continent
:02:14. > :02:18.and vice versa. So, what I said is that our
:02:19. > :02:21.objective would be to ensure that we have continued access to the markets
:02:22. > :02:27.in Europe and vice versa, without tariffs and without
:02:28. > :02:31.bureaucratic impediments. That is how we will approach
:02:32. > :02:34.those negotiations. We're joined now from Newcastle
:02:35. > :02:48.by the Shadow Business Welcome to the programme. Labour has
:02:49. > :02:52.been a bit sceptical about this Nissan decision. Can we begin by
:02:53. > :02:57.making it clear just what a great achievement this is, above all for
:02:58. > :03:02.the workers of Sunderland who have some of the highest productivity in
:03:03. > :03:07.the world, have never been on strike for 30 years, and produce cars of
:03:08. > :03:13.incredible quality. This is their victory, isn't it? Andrew, you are
:03:14. > :03:15.absolutely right. The Nissan plant in Sunderland is among the most
:03:16. > :03:20.productive in the world. The workers of Nissan are amongst the most
:03:21. > :03:27.productive as well. And it's really a victory for them and for the trade
:03:28. > :03:29.unions and the business organisations, and everybody who
:03:30. > :03:36.campaigned to make sure that the government couldn't ignore their
:03:37. > :03:40.future. It's our future. I'm the MP for Newcastle. It makes a huge
:03:41. > :03:44.difference to the region. We are a region that still likes to make
:03:45. > :03:49.things that work. It is a huge part of our advanced manufacturing
:03:50. > :03:55.sector. So it's really something we welcome as well as the job security.
:03:56. > :03:59.I'm glad we have got that on the record from the Labour shadow
:04:00. > :04:02.business secretary. But your Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, claims
:04:03. > :04:08.the government is ignoring manufacturers and cares only about a
:04:09. > :04:11.small banking elite. In what way is safeguarding 30,000 industrial jobs
:04:12. > :04:16.in the North safeguarding a financial elite? As I said, we're
:04:17. > :04:20.really pleased that the campaigning by trade unions and the workforce,
:04:21. > :04:24.and business organisations, meant the government felt they couldn t
:04:25. > :04:28.ignore Nissan workers. Let's also be clear that we want that kind of job
:04:29. > :04:33.security for all of those working in manufacturing and in other sectors
:04:34. > :04:38.as well. And sweetheart deals for one company, no matter how important
:04:39. > :04:43.they are, that does not an industrial strategy make. Why'd you
:04:44. > :04:49.say it is a sweetheart deal? Greg Clark told the BBC this morning that
:04:50. > :04:53.what was assured to Nissan is an assurance he gives to the whole
:04:54. > :04:59.industrial sector? I was really pleased to see Greg Clark felt he
:05:00. > :05:04.had to say something, even though it's sad that we having our
:05:05. > :05:07.industrial strategy, you like, or our approach to Brexit delivered
:05:08. > :05:12.piecemeal to the media rather than to the British people and Nissan,
:05:13. > :05:16.actually. But he want published the letter. He said he has told us what
:05:17. > :05:20.is in the letter and that reassurances given on training, on
:05:21. > :05:25.science and on supporting the supply chain for the automated sector. You
:05:26. > :05:30.must be in favour all -- of all of that? We are in favour of an
:05:31. > :05:39.industrial strategy. Greg Clark unlike Sajid Javid, cannot say
:05:40. > :05:45.industrial strategy. I'm still puzzling to find out what it is you
:05:46. > :05:49.disagree with. Let me put the question. You said the assurances he
:05:50. > :05:53.has given to Nissan are available to the car manufacturing sector in
:05:54. > :05:59.general and indeed to industry in general. What is your problem with
:06:00. > :06:03.that? Two things. Let him publish the letter so we can see that, let
:06:04. > :06:09.him have the transparency he's pretending to offer. But also, we
:06:10. > :06:16.need an industrial strategy that values -- that is values based and
:06:17. > :06:23.joined. He talked about electric cars and supporting green cars. That
:06:24. > :06:27.was in regard to Nissan. At the same time the government has slashed
:06:28. > :06:31.support for other areas of green technology. So what is it? That is
:06:32. > :06:37.not to do with the Nissan deal. Labour implied at some stage there
:06:38. > :06:41.was some financial inducement, some secret bribes, that doesn't seem to
:06:42. > :06:46.be the case. You are not claiming that any more -- any more. Then you
:06:47. > :06:51.claimed it was a sweetheart deal for one company. That turns out not to
:06:52. > :06:57.be the case. What criticism are you left with on this Nissan deal? I
:06:58. > :07:04.would be really surprised if all that Nissan got was the reassurances
:07:05. > :07:09.that Greg Clark is shared with us. He didn't answer the question of
:07:10. > :07:12.what happens if we can't get continued tariff free access to the
:07:13. > :07:17.single market, if we are not within the single market or the Customs
:07:18. > :07:22.Union. Do you really think a negotiator like Nissan, who are very
:07:23. > :07:24.good at negotiating, they would have excepted making this significant
:07:25. > :07:30.investment without some further reassurances? Do you think there is
:07:31. > :07:35.some kind of financial bride and if so what is the evidence? I would
:07:36. > :07:41.like to see the letter published and I would also like to understand what
:07:42. > :07:46.would happen... There are 27 countries which need to agree with
:07:47. > :07:49.the deal we have from Brexit. What will Nissan, how will Nissan remain
:07:50. > :07:55.competitive? How will the automotive industry remain competitive? Greg
:07:56. > :07:59.Clark says he reassured them on that. But how will that be so if we
:08:00. > :08:08.do not get access? We haven't heard anything about that. He talks about
:08:09. > :08:12.reassurances given to Nissan. We need to make -- to know where we're
:08:13. > :08:16.going to make sure Brexit is in the interest of all workers, not only
:08:17. > :08:23.those who work for a Nissan and not only those who can get the attention
:08:24. > :08:25.of Greg Clark. He assured Nissan that Britain would remain a
:08:26. > :08:30.competitive place to do business. That was the main assurance he gave
:08:31. > :08:35.them. He would help with skills and infrastructure and all the rest
:08:36. > :08:39.Since you are -- intend to repeal the trade union laws that have made
:08:40. > :08:42.strikes in Britain largely a thing of the past, and you plan to raise
:08:43. > :08:47.corporation tax, you couldn't give Nissan the same assurance, could
:08:48. > :08:52.you? We could absolutely give Nissan the assurance that we will be, our
:08:53. > :08:56.vision of the future of the UK, is based on having a strong
:08:57. > :09:07.manufacturing sector. Repealing trade union laws? As we have seen at
:09:08. > :09:15.Nissan, the industrial sector is dependent on having highly trained,
:09:16. > :09:19.well skilled workers. -- highly skilled, well-trained. You don't
:09:20. > :09:23.have that by getting -- having an aggressive policy and trade union
:09:24. > :09:27.laws or by slashing corporation tax and not supporting manufacturing
:09:28. > :09:30.investment. Remember, the last government took away the
:09:31. > :09:35.Manufacturing allowances which supported Manufacturing and slashed
:09:36. > :09:39.corporation tax. That is their solution. It is a low tax, low skill
:09:40. > :09:44.economy they want. Thank you. Sorry I had to rush you.
:09:45. > :09:54.I'm grateful for you joining us I'm still struggling to see what is
:09:55. > :09:58.left of Labour's criticism? Yeah, except for this. This was a valid
:09:59. > :10:02.point she just made. What we know for sure is that Greg Clark could
:10:03. > :10:09.say to Nissan, my aim is to get tariff free deal. There is no way he
:10:10. > :10:12.could guarantee that. None of us know that. I don't think that was
:10:13. > :10:19.enough. I think clearly there was a more detailed package involving
:10:20. > :10:23.training and other things. He has acknowledged this, albeit we do not
:10:24. > :10:27.know the precise mechanism. What I think is interesting about this is
:10:28. > :10:30.if you reverse what happened this week, at a time when the government
:10:31. > :10:35.says Britain is open for business and it is going to have an
:10:36. > :10:39.industrial strategy, so far it is a bit vaguely defined. Nissan hadn't
:10:40. > :10:42.made this commitment. Imagine what would have happened? It is an
:10:43. > :10:49.impossible scenario. The government seems to me was obliged to make sure
:10:50. > :10:52.this didn't happen. Let's not forget Nissan has invested hundreds of
:10:53. > :10:57.millions in the north-east. It has been a huge success story. When I
:10:58. > :11:01.spoke to workers from Nissan, they were so proud because they went to
:11:02. > :11:05.Japan to teach the Japanese had to be more productive. The idea that
:11:06. > :11:09.Nissan was just going to walk away from this given its track record,
:11:10. > :11:15.its importance, wasn't really credible. The government had some
:11:16. > :11:19.bargaining chips. Absolutely, of course they weren't going to walk
:11:20. > :11:23.away. The majority of people in the area in which Nissan is braced -
:11:24. > :11:28.based, voted for Brexit. Nissan knows it is in a powerful position
:11:29. > :11:31.because it is an emotive sector Clearly the government didn't want
:11:32. > :11:38.to have some big showdown. I honestly don't think this is a
:11:39. > :11:40.smoking gun. The Labour Shadow minister really struggled to
:11:41. > :11:43.articulate what exactly she thinks the government is hiding. I think
:11:44. > :11:48.the reassurances were given were pretty anodyne, really. They were
:11:49. > :11:51.anodyne and general. And what Greg Clark was setting out was an
:11:52. > :11:55.objective and he made the right noises, and Nissan exercised its
:11:56. > :12:02.right to sabre rattle. It does have a history of doing that. The one
:12:03. > :12:05.thing that would now be clear given Greg Clark's performance this
:12:06. > :12:08.morning on the BBC, is that if we were to discover some kind of
:12:09. > :12:13.financial incentive directly linked to this investment, not more for
:12:14. > :12:18.skills or infrastructure, that is fine, but some direct financial
:12:19. > :12:20.investment, compensation for tariffs, which would be illegal
:12:21. > :12:26.under World Trade Organisation rules, what you might call a
:12:27. > :12:30.financial bride, the sect -- the business Secretary's position would
:12:31. > :12:33.be untenable? He would be in a very difficult position indeed. Just
:12:34. > :12:37.released the letter. There is nothing to hide. Put it out there.
:12:38. > :12:43.The most revealing thing is that people are getting wildly excited
:12:44. > :12:46.about the fact Greg Clark announced Britain's negotiating position would
:12:47. > :12:50.be that we would like tariff free trade with Europe. This is regarded
:12:51. > :12:53.as an insight into what this comment is doing and it says a great deal
:12:54. > :12:59.about how little we have been told in Parliament and the media about
:13:00. > :13:03.what they are up. Do you think it is exciting we are going for tariff
:13:04. > :13:10.free trade? We're easily excited these days. We don't know. This is
:13:11. > :13:14.where these things are at such a tentative phase. We don't know how
:13:15. > :13:20.the rest of the European Union is going to respond to Britain's
:13:21. > :13:25.negotiating hand. We know Britain once the best of everything, please.
:13:26. > :13:30.It is a starting point. But that is not how it is going to end up. We
:13:31. > :13:32.are getting wider than that. We have will have to see.
:13:33. > :13:34.Now, Universal Credit, a single payment made to welfare
:13:35. > :13:37.claimants that would roll together a plethora of benefits whilst
:13:38. > :13:39.encouraging people into work by making work pay.
:13:40. > :13:42.But have cuts to the flagship welfare scheme reduced work
:13:43. > :13:47.incentives and hit the incomes of the least well-off?
:13:48. > :13:49.Well, some of the government's own MPs think so, and,
:13:50. > :13:56.as Mark Lobel reports, want the cuts reversed.
:13:57. > :13:59.Theresa May says she wants a country that works
:14:00. > :14:03.for everyone, that's on the side of ordinary, working people.
:14:04. > :14:06.It means never writing off people who can work and consigning them
:14:07. > :14:09.to a life on benefits, but giving them the chance to go out
:14:10. > :14:12.and earn a living and to enjoy the dignity that comes
:14:13. > :14:18.But now some in her party are worried that the low earners
:14:19. > :14:23.will be hit by changes to Universal Credit benefit system
:14:24. > :14:25.originally set up to encourage more people into work.
:14:26. > :14:28.We also need to focus tax credits and Universal Credit
:14:29. > :14:35.Concern centred on the Government's decision in the July 2015 budget
:14:36. > :14:44.to find ?3 billion worth of savings from the Universal Credit bill.
:14:45. > :14:46.Conservative MP Heidi Allen is working on a campaign to get MPs
:14:47. > :14:54.in her party to urge the Prime Minister to think again.
:14:55. > :14:57.I want her to understand for herself what the outcomes might
:14:58. > :14:59.be if we press ahead with the Universal Credit,
:15:00. > :15:03.Do you think Theresa May, right now, understands what you understand
:15:04. > :15:06.To be fair, unless you really get into the detail,
:15:07. > :15:09.and I have through my work on the Work and Pensions
:15:10. > :15:10.Select Committee, I don't think anybody does.
:15:11. > :15:17.Independent economic analysts at the IFS agree with Heidi Alan
:15:18. > :15:21.that cuts to Universal Credit weaken incentives to work.
:15:22. > :15:23.One of the key parts of the Universal Credit system
:15:24. > :15:27.That is how much you can earn before your credit
:15:28. > :15:30.As the Government has sought to save money,
:15:31. > :15:32.both under the Coalition and now they Conservative Government,
:15:33. > :15:34.both under the Coalition and now the Conservative Government,
:15:35. > :15:36.that work allowance has been cut, time and time again.
:15:37. > :15:39.The biggest cuts happened in the summer budget of 2015.
:15:40. > :15:41.That basically reduces the amount of earnings you get to keep
:15:42. > :15:45.It weakens the incentive people have to move into work.
:15:46. > :15:47.What do changes to the Universal Credit system mean?
:15:48. > :15:50.The Resolution Foundation think tank has crunched the numbers.
:15:51. > :15:54.If you compare what would have happened before the July 2015 summer
:15:55. > :15:57.budget to what will happen by 2 20, even if you take into account gains
:15:58. > :15:59.in the National Living Wage and income tax cuts,
:16:00. > :16:04.recipients will be hit by annual deductions.
:16:05. > :16:08.Couples and parents would receive, on average, ?1000 less.
:16:09. > :16:10.A dual-earning couple with two children under four,
:16:11. > :16:13.with one partner working full-time on ?10.50 an hour and the other
:16:14. > :16:16.working part-time on the minimum wage for around 20
:16:17. > :16:23.hours a week, they would receive ?1800 less.
:16:24. > :16:26.Hit most by the changes would be a single parent
:16:27. > :16:27.with a child under four, working full-time
:16:28. > :16:41.I think, if I'm honest, it is unrealistic, given
:16:42. > :16:44.the economic climate, to expect everything to be reversed.
:16:45. > :16:50.What I would like to see is an increase in the work
:16:51. > :16:53.allowances to those people who will be hardest hit.
:16:54. > :16:56.That is single parents and second earners hoping to return to work,
:16:57. > :16:58.because they are the people we need to absolutely make
:16:59. > :17:03.The Sunday Politics understands that about 15 to 20 Conservative MPs
:17:04. > :17:06.are pushing for changes ahead of the Autumn Statement.
:17:07. > :17:10.A former cabinet minister told us that they believed further impact
:17:11. > :17:12.analysis should be done to find out if any mitigation measures
:17:13. > :17:19.Former Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith, an architect
:17:20. > :17:23.of the system, now says the cuts should be reversed.
:17:24. > :17:28.But his former department has told us that it has no plans to revisit
:17:29. > :17:33.the work allowance changes announced in the budget last year.
:17:34. > :17:37.What I would say to Heidi Allen and IDS, they got it right the first
:17:38. > :17:40.time and they should stick to the vote they cast last year
:17:41. > :17:41.because these reforms actually do make sense.
:17:42. > :17:44.What interests me is the fact we are trying to move people
:17:45. > :17:47.off welfare into work, we are raising the wages people
:17:48. > :17:49.earn by massively increasing the minimum wage and this
:17:50. > :17:52.People are coming off welfare and into work.
:17:53. > :17:55.Campaigners are pushing for savings to come from other areas to relieve
:17:56. > :18:01.The other thing we have to start looking at is the triple
:18:02. > :18:05.Financially it has been a great policy, and it was absolutely right
:18:06. > :18:07.that we lifted pensioners who were significantly behind,
:18:08. > :18:10.for many years, in terms of income levels, but they have
:18:11. > :18:15.I think it is time for us to look at that policy again,
:18:16. > :18:17.because is costing us an awful lot of money.
:18:18. > :18:20.With just over three weeks to wait until the Conservative leadership's
:18:21. > :18:23.new economic plan is unveiled in the Autumn Statement,
:18:24. > :18:27.its top team is under pressure from within its own ranks to use it
:18:28. > :18:36.And I'm joined now by former Work and Pensions Secretary,
:18:37. > :18:44.Welcome back to the programme. Theresa May said she is on the side
:18:45. > :18:50.of the just managing, the working poor. But they are about to be hit
:18:51. > :18:53.from all sides. Their modest living standards are going to be squeezed
:18:54. > :18:57.as inflation overtakes pay rises, they will be further squeezed
:18:58. > :19:00.because top-up benefits in work are frozen. Incentives to work are going
:19:01. > :19:05.to be reduced by the cuts in universal benefits. So much for
:19:06. > :19:10.being on the side of those just managing? Theresa was right to focus
:19:11. > :19:17.on this group. The definition has to be the bottom half, in economic
:19:18. > :19:21.terms, of the social structure. It doesn't look good for them? This is
:19:22. > :19:25.the point I am making, it is an opportunity to put some of this
:19:26. > :19:27.right. One of the reasons I resigned in March is because I felt the
:19:28. > :19:31.direction of travel we had been going in had been to take far too
:19:32. > :19:35.much money out of that group of people when there are other areas
:19:36. > :19:39.which, if you need to make some of those savings, you can. The key bit
:19:40. > :19:42.is that the group needs to be helped through into work and encouraged to
:19:43. > :19:46.stay in work. There was a report done with the IFS, when we were
:19:47. > :19:53.there, at Universal Credit. It said Universal Credit rolled out, as it
:19:54. > :19:56.should have been before the cuts, people would be much more likely to
:19:57. > :20:00.stay in work longer and earn more money. It is a net positive, but
:20:01. > :20:05.that is now called into question. Let's unpick some of the detail but
:20:06. > :20:08.first, do you accept the words of David Willets? It says on the basis
:20:09. > :20:15.of the things I read out to you that the just managing face a significant
:20:16. > :20:20.and painful cut in real terms if we continue on the way we are going. I
:20:21. > :20:29.do, in essence. That is the reason why I resigned. I felt Heidi raised
:20:30. > :20:32.that issue as well, that we got the balance wrong. It is right that
:20:33. > :20:36.pensioners get to a certain point, when they are on a level par, doing
:20:37. > :20:41.the right thing over five years Staying with that process has cost
:20:42. > :20:50.us ?18 billion extra this year, in total. It will go on costing another
:20:51. > :20:54.5 billion. Then there is the issue of tax allowances. I want to remind
:20:55. > :21:01.you and viewers what David Cameron told the Conservative conference in
:21:02. > :21:07.2009. If you are a single mother with two children, earning ?150 a
:21:08. > :21:10.week, the withdrawal of your benefits and the additional taxes
:21:11. > :21:18.that you pay me on that for every extra you earn, you keep just 4p.
:21:19. > :21:24.What kind of incentive is that? 30 years ago, this party won and
:21:25. > :21:33.election fighting against 98% tax rates for the Rex richest. I want us
:21:34. > :21:38.today to show even more anger about 96% tax rates for the very poorest
:21:39. > :21:44.in our country. Real anger, and effective rate of over 90%.
:21:45. > :21:48.Universal Credit reduces that. Some will still face, as they lose
:21:49. > :21:53.benefits and pay tax, a marginal rate of over 75%. That is still too
:21:54. > :21:57.high? Yes, it is the collision between those going into work at the
:21:58. > :22:02.moment they start paying tax. A racial Universal Credit is set at
:22:03. > :22:09.65%. You can call that the base marginal tax rate. 1.2 million will
:22:10. > :22:12.face 75%? That is the point about why the allowances are so important.
:22:13. > :22:15.The point about the allowances which viewers might not fully understand
:22:16. > :22:19.is that it was set, as part of Universal Credit, to allow you to
:22:20. > :22:23.get certain people, with certain difficulties, as they cross into
:22:24. > :22:30.work, to retain more benefit before it is tapered away as they go up in
:22:31. > :22:33.hours. A lone parent, who might have various issues, you want her to have
:22:34. > :22:37.a bigger incentive than a single person that does not have the same
:22:38. > :22:41.commitments. It is structured so that somebody who has difficulty
:22:42. > :22:44.going to work, they all have slightly different rates. What
:22:45. > :22:47.happened is that last year a decision was taken to reduce tax
:22:48. > :22:51.credits, and, on the back of that, to reduce allowances. I believe
:22:52. > :22:57.given everything that happened now, we need to restore that to the point
:22:58. > :23:00.where it helps those people crossing over. You say a decision was taken,
:23:01. > :23:05.it was a decision by the former Chancellor George Osborne in the
:23:06. > :23:09.summer budget. Other decisions were taken in successive Budgets to raise
:23:10. > :23:12.the Universal Credit budget, which resulted in the disincentive being
:23:13. > :23:18.higher than many people wanted. Do you accept that has been the
:23:19. > :23:20.consequence of his decisions? I was in the Government, we take
:23:21. > :23:24.collective responsibility. I argued this was not the right way to go,
:23:25. > :23:27.but when you are in you have to stay with it if you lose that argument.
:23:28. > :23:31.There was another attempt before the spending review last year to
:23:32. > :23:36.increase the taper, so the marginal rate would have gone up. I managed
:23:37. > :23:40.to stop that. I'm Sibley saying what we made as a decision last
:23:41. > :23:45.year, given the circumstances and given that the net effect of all of
:23:46. > :23:49.that, I think it is time for the Government to ask the question, if
:23:50. > :23:53.we are in this to help that group of people, Universal Credit is
:23:54. > :23:55.singularly the most powerful tool. One of the Argentine aid in the
:23:56. > :24:01.paper published on Thursday, we are set going on doing two more races of
:24:02. > :24:07.the tax threshold, taking more people out of tax. That has a
:24:08. > :24:13.diminishing effect on the bottom section. Only 25p in that tax rate
:24:14. > :24:18.will help any of those. Most of it goes to middle income? You and I
:24:19. > :24:21.will benefit more from that. With Universal Credit, every pound you
:24:22. > :24:25.put into that will go to the bottom five tenths. That is why I designed
:24:26. > :24:30.it like that. He pressed the button and immediately start to changed
:24:31. > :24:33.circumstances. Should the cuts in Universal Credit that Mr Osborne
:24:34. > :24:39.introduced, against your argument, should they be reversed? I believe
:24:40. > :24:42.so. I believe you can do it even if there is concern about spending I
:24:43. > :24:46.don't believe you need to go through with the continuing raise the tax
:24:47. > :24:54.threshold. Cost is dependent on inflation, but give or take. It is
:24:55. > :24:59.in the Tory manifesto? Has more than doubled. What is in the manifesto,
:25:00. > :25:05.and Lasse Prime Minister made this clear in conference, we want to
:25:06. > :25:08.improve the life chances of people. Today's announcement on the Green
:25:09. > :25:12.paper is what I wrote over the last two and a half years. Big changes
:25:13. > :25:16.necessary to how we deal with sickness benefit. That can now be
:25:17. > :25:19.done because of Universal Credit, because people can go back to work
:25:20. > :25:23.and it tapers away their benefits. It is the most powerful tool to sort
:25:24. > :25:29.our people that live in poverty Universal Credit. We need to make
:25:30. > :25:31.sure it lands positively. If Mr Osborne's cuts were reversed, what
:25:32. > :25:36.you and some of your backbench Tory colleagues want to do, how would
:25:37. > :25:42.that improve the incentives of the working poor, as they try to get on
:25:43. > :25:48.in life? They have to pay more tax, they lose some benefits. How would
:25:49. > :25:52.it improve it? Would many still face a 75% rate? The key question is
:25:53. > :25:57.first and foremost, as people move through income to the point where
:25:58. > :26:00.they are getting taxed, that group will be enormously benefited by the
:26:01. > :26:06.re-emergence of these allowances at the right level. That is what the
:26:07. > :26:10.IFS have said, that is what the Resolution Foundation are saying,
:26:11. > :26:14.and the Centre For Social Justice is saying. You have to get that group,
:26:15. > :26:18.because they are most likely to be drifting into poverty and less
:26:19. > :26:24.incomes are right. Would it help those who face a 75% margin? We
:26:25. > :26:28.don't face that. Exactly right. People much poorer than us do. I
:26:29. > :26:37.would love to get the marginal rate down to testify percent, and lower,.
:26:38. > :26:40.-- down to 65%. It is a balance of how you spend the money. I would
:26:41. > :26:48.prefer to do that rather than necessarily go ahead with threshold
:26:49. > :26:54.razors. I think the coronation of the marginal reduction of 65%,
:26:55. > :26:56.getting it down to 60%, plus more allowances, will allow Universal
:26:57. > :27:00.Credit to get to the group that is going to be, and the report written
:27:01. > :27:04.by the IFS and ourselves, it shows it is going to be the most dynamic
:27:05. > :27:08.and direct ability of a Government to be able to influence the way that
:27:09. > :27:15.people improve their incomes in the bottom five deciles. Would you take
:27:16. > :27:21.on extra work if you knew you were going to lose 75% of it? Even 6 %?
:27:22. > :27:26.This has been my argument all along. Universal Credit can help that
:27:27. > :27:31.enormously. One point that goes missing, 70% of the bottom five
:27:32. > :27:33.deciles will be on Universal Credit. Whatever change you make to
:27:34. > :27:39.Universal Credit has a dramatic and immediate effect I am arguing,
:27:40. > :27:43.genuinely, it is time to rethink this. The Prime Minister wants to
:27:44. > :27:47.make this a priority. I am completely with her on this. I think
:27:48. > :27:53.she made a really good start. To deliver this, we need to... You have
:27:54. > :27:56.a lot of work to do to deliver it. Because it is a manifesto
:27:57. > :28:02.commitment, or because they want to do it, stopping increasing the
:28:03. > :28:04.personal allowances are not acceptable, what about bringing to
:28:05. > :28:10.an end, by the end of the parliament, the pension triple lock
:28:11. > :28:16.that pensioners enjoy to improve and put more money to the working poor?
:28:17. > :28:20.What about that? Well, you are absolutely right that there is now
:28:21. > :28:23.the danger, I think, of a mess balance between the generations
:28:24. > :28:27.Quite rightly at the beginning, when we came in, we have a commitment as
:28:28. > :28:33.a Conservative Party in a manifesto to get pensions back onto earnings.
:28:34. > :28:38.It was moved to a triple lock that guaranteed a minimum. What about
:28:39. > :28:42.ending up now? I understand it is a promise through the Parliament, but
:28:43. > :28:46.after 2020? I am in favour of getting it back to innings and
:28:47. > :28:51.allowing it to rise at reasonable levels. Moving from earnings to the
:28:52. > :28:55.triple lock has cost ?18 billion this year. Here was a high, under
:28:56. > :28:59.pressure, as the Government was scratching around to pay more money
:29:00. > :29:03.out of working age areas, when the budget was almost out of control on
:29:04. > :29:06.the pension side. I'm in favour of helping pensioners, but now they are
:29:07. > :29:10.up to a reasonable level, at a steady rate, that can be afforded by
:29:11. > :29:15.Government, which takes the pressure off, working age people have to pay
:29:16. > :29:26.for that. In years to come, time to end the triple lock
:29:27. > :29:31.and use the savings to help these people we have been talking about?
:29:32. > :29:32.As part of a load of packages, yes. It would also help with the
:29:33. > :29:35.intergenerational fairness argument. Thank you for being with us.
:29:36. > :29:38.Now, a prominent London Imam called Shakeel Begg -
:29:39. > :29:41.who is Chief Imam the Lewisham Islamic Centre - is an extremist.
:29:42. > :29:44.That was the verdict of the judge in a libel action that Mr Begg took
:29:45. > :29:47.against the BBC, after we described him as an Islamic extremist
:29:48. > :29:51.Mr Begg had complained about a short segment in an interview in November
:29:52. > :29:54.2013 with Farooq Murad, the then head of the Muslim Council
:29:55. > :29:56.of Britain, an organisation which claims to represent British
:29:57. > :30:02.In that interview, we described Mr Begg as an extremist speaker
:30:03. > :30:05.who had hailed jihad is the greatest of deeds.
:30:06. > :30:08.From his base of the Lewisham Islamic Centre, Mr Begg has been
:30:09. > :30:12.involved in a number of community organisations, including
:30:13. > :30:15.the Police Independent Advisory Group in Lewisham,
:30:16. > :30:20.Lewisham Council's Advisory Council on Religious Education
:30:21. > :30:22.and as a volunteer chaplain at Lewisham Hospital.
:30:23. > :30:28.But in his judgment, Mr Justice Haddon-Cave called
:30:29. > :30:31.Mr Begg a Jekyll and Hyde character - a trusted figure in his local
:30:32. > :30:34.community, but when talking to predominantly Muslim audiences
:30:35. > :30:39.he shed the cloak of respectability and revealed the horns of extremism.
:30:40. > :30:42.The judge cited one speech made by Mr Begg at a rally
:30:43. > :30:45.outside Belmarsh Prisonm- the high security prison that houses
:30:46. > :30:48.terrorists - as particularly sinister.
:30:49. > :30:51.The judge said the imam was expressing admiration and praise
:30:52. > :30:57.Following Friday's judgment, the hospital trust have told us that
:30:58. > :31:01.Mr Begg's status as a voluntary chaplain has been terminated.
:31:02. > :31:05.We have been told by Lewisham Council he is no longer
:31:06. > :31:06.on their Religious Education Committee.
:31:07. > :31:08.The Metropolitan Police have confirmed that
:31:09. > :31:13.Mr Begg remains a member of their Independent Advisory Group
:31:14. > :31:22.in Lewisham, as well as the borough's faith group.
:31:23. > :31:27.I am joined by Haras Rafiq, chief executive of the Quilliam
:31:28. > :31:34.Foundation. Welcome to the programme. I have here in my hand a
:31:35. > :31:40.statement from the trustees of the Lewisham Islamic Centre. They reject
:31:41. > :31:42.the judge's ruling as fanciful and say they are unequivocal and
:31:43. > :31:49.unwavering in their support of Shakeel Begg as their head imam
:31:50. > :31:53.What do you make of that? To be honest, it doesn't surprise me. At
:31:54. > :31:57.the end of the day he is only the imam of that mosque because he
:31:58. > :32:02.belongs to the same theological fundamentalist views that the mosque
:32:03. > :32:07.would portray. If they were to say he was an extremist, they would be
:32:08. > :32:11.saying in fact that they have allowed extremist preaching and
:32:12. > :32:16.extremist theology within their walls. I think this is a very
:32:17. > :32:23.important decision and a very important judgment by the judge
:32:24. > :32:27.First of all, these people like to operate in a linear, under a veneer
:32:28. > :32:32.of respectability. When that veneer is taken away, there are a number of
:32:33. > :32:36.things that can happen. First of all, the BBC did very well to stand
:32:37. > :32:43.by their guns and say, we're not going to be intimidated by somebody
:32:44. > :32:47.who is threatening to taking -- to take us to court for potential
:32:48. > :32:52.libel. Many other media companies have done that in the past and
:32:53. > :32:57.people have capitulated. Also, this has exposed him. Legally now, here's
:32:58. > :33:01.some deal can be classified as an extremist preacher, somebody who
:33:02. > :33:05.promotes religious violence. I think the mosque really needs to take a
:33:06. > :33:09.step back and say, how we part of the problem that we are facing
:33:10. > :33:18.within society? Or are we going to be part of the solution? It really
:33:19. > :33:23.concerns me. The High Court judge says that Mr Begg's speeches were
:33:24. > :33:30.consistent with an extremist Salafist is the most worldview. What
:33:31. > :33:40.is Salafist is and how widespread is it in UK mosques? -- mosque. It
:33:41. > :33:43.comes from the Middle East. It is from Saudi Arabia. The enemy for
:33:44. > :33:52.them was the old colonial Ottoman Empire. There is the quiet Salafist
:33:53. > :33:54.to get some with their lives, lives outside society. There is a
:33:55. > :33:58.revolutionary who tries to convert other people to their worldview And
:33:59. > :34:05.then there is the Salafist jihad ease. People like Islamic State etc.
:34:06. > :34:09.We have seen of increased in recent decades because of money that has,
:34:10. > :34:14.growing from the Middle East. When that is mixed with a political
:34:15. > :34:18.ideology, it becomes potent. Do we have a political -- particular
:34:19. > :34:24.problem in Britain with this in our mosques? Absolutely. Without the
:34:25. > :34:27.theology that says hate the other, hate other Muslims, that
:34:28. > :34:32.excommunicate other people, that says it is OK to fight and is good
:34:33. > :34:36.to fight when you have got an enemy, we wouldn't really have a jihadi
:34:37. > :34:44.problem. Really that is something we have to tackle. The number of
:34:45. > :34:48.mosques and institutions supporting Salafist and Islam is has been on
:34:49. > :34:53.the increase. Do we have a problem with what the judge called Jekyll
:34:54. > :34:59.and Hyde characters who hide their extremism except when they are
:35:00. > :35:04.speaking to specific groups? Absolutely. One of the things we
:35:05. > :35:09.have focused on in the past, a number of hate preachers now in
:35:10. > :35:12.prison, people like Anjem Choudary, and everybody focused on them. But
:35:13. > :35:16.there is a range of people operating under that level. People who will
:35:17. > :35:21.show one face to the community because they actually need that for
:35:22. > :35:25.a respectability. They need that for a legitimacy. They need that to
:35:26. > :35:29.operate. When they are behind closed doors and talking to their
:35:30. > :35:34.constitution, that is when you will see the real face of what these
:35:35. > :35:38.people believe. It is an increasing phenomenon. We are seeing it more.
:35:39. > :35:45.And we're going to carry on seeing it. Not just has the Lewisham mosque
:35:46. > :35:49.stuck by him, but given the clarity of the judge's ruling, are you
:35:50. > :35:54.surprised that the Metropolitan police would wish to continue with
:35:55. > :35:57.Mr Begg as an adviser? I'm absolutely shocked that that
:35:58. > :36:03.decision. What Uzzy going to do Advise them on how to deal with
:36:04. > :36:05.extremist preachers and promote religiously motivated violence? I
:36:06. > :36:12.don't know what he's going to advise them on. Because we now have a judge
:36:13. > :36:14.that has ruled against him and actually classified him as an
:36:15. > :36:19.extremist and somebody who promotes religious violence, we actually have
:36:20. > :36:24.a possibility for the CPS to actually prosecute him. There is a
:36:25. > :36:27.law that has been in place since 2005 called religiously motivated
:36:28. > :36:33.violence. If he has been classified as somebody who promotes this, there
:36:34. > :36:37.is a potential for the CPS to prosecute. I want to called into
:36:38. > :36:40.question other organisations, interfaith organisations, other
:36:41. > :36:47.Muslims groups, who say they want to fight extremism, I call on them to
:36:48. > :36:56.say, this guy is an extremist preacher, we should cut our ties
:36:57. > :37:00.from him. This was a very high risk strategy by the BBC. The exposure
:37:01. > :37:06.could have been over ?1.5 million of licence payers money. Will this make
:37:07. > :37:12.it more difficult for Jekyll and Hyde characters to behave as Mr Begg
:37:13. > :37:16.has behaved? Absolutely. It will do. One of the things they will now have
:37:17. > :37:23.to make sure is that they are a lot more careful. Careful with what they
:37:24. > :37:27.say to their own constituency. It won't solve the theological problem.
:37:28. > :37:31.But it will actually stop other people from operating in this manner
:37:32. > :37:35.and allow other media organisations to have the confidence to expose
:37:36. > :37:38.them when they do. Haras Rafiq, thank you for joining us.
:37:39. > :37:40.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:37:41. > :37:43.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:37:44. > :38:02.Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead.
:38:03. > :38:06.Later in the programme, our hospitals are
:38:07. > :38:08.buckling under the strain, trying to make savings
:38:09. > :38:10.while they are dealing with the beds crisis?
:38:11. > :38:12.There is no winter pressures any more.
:38:13. > :38:15.And a new way to protect our coasts, but only
:38:16. > :38:18.if the Government will stump up some money.
:38:19. > :38:21.Well, here with me today, James Cleverly, the Conserv`tive MP
:38:22. > :38:25.And for the Liberal Democrats, Dave Hodgson.
:38:26. > :38:28.The only elected mayor in this region.
:38:29. > :38:33.But all that might change if this man gets
:38:34. > :38:38.This week, Sajid Javid was hn Suffolk in Norfolk trying to save
:38:39. > :38:43.The local government secretary met councillors
:38:44. > :38:47.and business leaders in a l`st-ditch effort to keep the deal alive.
:38:48. > :38:48.Under the Government's proposals, over 30
:38:49. > :38:56.years, hundreds of millions of pounds would be devolved from
:38:57. > :38:59.Councillors would get new powers over housing,
:39:00. > :39:01.infrastructure, transport and economic development.
:39:02. > :39:04.But it is by no means a dond deal, especially in
:39:05. > :39:09.Norfolk, where four councils have already opted out.
:39:10. > :39:15.The Tory leader of the county council is now calling
:39:16. > :39:18.for an debate early next month before a final decision is
:39:19. > :39:21.If this deal doesn't happen, then there will, ultimately, I think
:39:22. > :39:23.the fewer opportunities because local leaders will be
:39:24. > :39:26.turning their backs on hundreds of millions of new
:39:27. > :39:34.It is control of local skills funding,
:39:35. > :39:36.transport funding, and why would any local
:39:37. > :39:37.leader turn their back on
:39:38. > :39:43.Dave Hodgson, as an elected mayor, presumably you are all
:39:44. > :39:49.Well, the people of Bedford voted for it.
:39:50. > :39:51.We had a referendum, we decided we wanted an elected
:39:52. > :39:54.If the people of Norfolk and Suffolk decides they
:39:55. > :39:56.want a different system, they should have that.
:39:57. > :39:59.I don't think the system should be imposed against how they
:40:00. > :40:03.You didn't say whether you think you are in favour
:40:04. > :40:07.I campaign against elected mayors, but the people of
:40:08. > :40:12.Why is it that the Government is so set on
:40:13. > :40:17.I think that's one of the things we saw from the clip is that a number
:40:18. > :40:18.of those issues, skills, economic development,
:40:19. > :40:28.And the combination of thosd things in a local area will vary area to
:40:29. > :40:31.Local solutions, supported financially from central Government,
:40:32. > :40:34.but tailored for local needs, I think it is a really good mix
:40:35. > :40:45.Because actually, if you are going to be
:40:46. > :40:48.devolving really big chunks of money which are going to be spent
:40:49. > :40:50.regionally, then actually you need someone who is accountable `cross
:40:51. > :40:53.that whole region to be the person that front setup.
:40:54. > :40:55.And I think that is why the Secretary of State was
:40:56. > :41:00.Where you have a point of accountability who can spend that
:41:01. > :41:04.But surely if the people in Norfolk and Suffolk have a different
:41:05. > :41:07.accountable model and we re`lly believe in devolving power, they
:41:08. > :41:10.should be able to decide thdir model and actually put that to thd
:41:11. > :41:16.Secretary of State and say, this is the model we want.
:41:17. > :41:18.And we shouldn't be hung up on elected mayors
:41:19. > :41:21.We should look at the devolution as the
:41:22. > :41:23.primary task and actually get the economy moving.
:41:24. > :41:26.Don't you think it is good to have a focal point?
:41:27. > :41:28.It works in Bedford, but I think I can
:41:29. > :41:31.Norfolk and Suffolk there isn't a focal point necessarily.
:41:32. > :41:34.And I think it will be actu`lly more of a
:41:35. > :41:38.And it seems to be the thing that is stopping the deal.
:41:39. > :41:39.If everybody wants this devolution, if
:41:40. > :41:42.this is the only thing, surely there's a way round ht.
:41:43. > :41:43.Everybody seems to be talking about Norfolk
:41:44. > :41:45.and Suffolk and Cambridgeshhre, what about Essex?
:41:46. > :41:48.Well, the idea of a Greater Essex region, and Essex
:41:49. > :41:51.But I think one of the challenges with
:41:52. > :41:54.Essex is, though we have Chdlmsford as our capital city, actually Essex
:41:55. > :42:00.It doesn't really have that central mass.
:42:01. > :42:03.And I think it is shown that
:42:04. > :42:09.some of the needs and requirements of South Essex, which is much more
:42:10. > :42:12.urban, very different from the north, which is much more rural.
:42:13. > :42:16.But if we listen to what Sajid Javid said, they are going to
:42:17. > :42:19.To make it clear, I am ambivalent on the
:42:20. > :42:27.But I do completely understand the Government's
:42:28. > :42:30.position, when they are sayhng, if we are going to hand across really
:42:31. > :42:33.significant spending power, then we need to note that the people
:42:34. > :42:35.spending that money can be held to account.
:42:36. > :42:36.It is one of the fundamentals of democracy.
:42:37. > :42:39.And it is really difficult to hold a mix of
:42:40. > :42:40.district, town, parish and county councils.
:42:41. > :42:45.one of the things that the Government is quite keen on seeing.
:42:46. > :42:50.The challenge of managing our coastline.
:42:51. > :42:54.on a scale never before seen in the UK is being
:42:55. > :42:55.planned for a stretch of
:42:56. > :42:59.The aim of the plan is to improve sea defences near
:43:00. > :43:02.one of the biggest gas terminals in Britain.
:43:03. > :43:04.With a new technique called sandscaping.
:43:05. > :43:06.But the council needs help from the Government to pay for
:43:07. > :43:12.It's a vital piece of National infrastructure.
:43:13. > :43:14.Nearly a third of all the g`s we use is piped into
:43:15. > :43:19.Unthinkable that this could fall into the sea.
:43:20. > :43:21.But that is exactly what is at stake.
:43:22. > :43:26.Sea defences have failed, beach levels have dropped.
:43:27. > :43:28.Which is why a radical solution to protect
:43:29. > :43:32.the terminal and the neighbouring villages of Walcott and Bacton,
:43:33. > :43:42.The province of South Holland are examining innovative
:43:43. > :43:45.Waves of coastal maintenancd and protection using the sand motor.
:43:46. > :43:46.On the Dutch coast, huge qu`ntities of
:43:47. > :43:48.sand have been dredged and brought ashore.
:43:49. > :43:49.The natural movement of the
:43:50. > :43:52.waves and tides then carries this sacrificial material down the coast,
:43:53. > :43:57.maintaining beach levels and providing
:43:58. > :44:05.It is not just a little bit of sand, it
:44:06. > :44:11.I think we are so close now that I cannot see it is not
:44:12. > :44:21.It hasn't happened as quickly as I would
:44:22. > :44:22.have liked, or indeed as the
:44:23. > :44:25.terminal would like, which hs why they are having to put some
:44:26. > :44:28.temporary protection in casd of winter storms this year.
:44:29. > :44:29.At Bacton, 2.3 million cubic metres of sand
:44:30. > :44:37.It gets a qualified welcome from Richard
:44:38. > :44:39.Hollis, who recently spent ?250,000 on rock defences
:44:40. > :44:50.to protect his caravan park.
:44:51. > :44:53.If you look at the Dutch, they do the sandscaping, but they also
:44:54. > :44:55.practice drainage along the top of the cliff.
:44:56. > :44:58.And a hard defence further down to stop the main wash
:44:59. > :45:01.The estimated cost of the s`nd escaping is around ?30
:45:02. > :45:05.North Norfolk Council needs to raise approximately ?6 million to protect
:45:06. > :45:09.It is facing a shortfall of up to 3 million.
:45:10. > :45:12.Autumn Statement to see whether the Government
:45:13. > :45:16.We also want to see whether the gas companies are prepared to
:45:17. > :45:24.But without contributions from Government and
:45:25. > :45:26.the gas companies, this will not go ahead.
:45:27. > :45:30.The scheme, which would be ` first for Britain, has the
:45:31. > :45:53.If the funding can be agreed, work could start as soon as next year.
:45:54. > :45:57.Well, we did ask to speak to Suffolk MP, but she was not able to talk
:45:58. > :46:16.Mr Cleverly, do you think that, there you are, you
:46:17. > :46:23.As we have seen from the statement, the
:46:24. > :46:26.And I know MPs have lobbied for funding,
:46:27. > :46:31.some more successfully than
:46:32. > :46:33.others - my colleague Brandon Lewis I know was successful
:46:34. > :46:39.getting funding for his part of the Norfolk coast.
:46:40. > :46:41.So, yes, Central Government does have a role to play.
:46:42. > :46:45.And obviously so do the private sector.
:46:46. > :46:48.And so, it needs to be a team effort.
:46:49. > :46:56.I think that proposal is very interesting.
:46:57. > :46:58.It is the kind of thing we will look to support.
:46:59. > :47:01.How do you decide what you are going to save?
:47:02. > :47:03.Are you going to save the g`s terminal or
:47:04. > :47:09.Through lobbying, Brandon Lewis has been
:47:10. > :47:14.Why you choose Brandon Lewis' bits of the coast, rather
:47:15. > :47:18.than Norman Lamb's and the villages there, I think you cannot jtst
:47:19. > :47:19.decide piecemeal about who can lobby best.
:47:20. > :47:20.That is not the way to
:47:21. > :47:24.Isn't there a question about what you save?
:47:25. > :47:26.Whether it is an industrial site like the gas terminal?
:47:27. > :47:39.But if you have lobbying to prioritise one area, surdly we
:47:40. > :47:45.It doesn't seem that shot of money in the grand
:47:46. > :47:49.And what I don't want to do is for that to be eroded
:47:50. > :47:52.It would nice to be nearer the coast,
:47:53. > :47:55.but if we don't do this, we are going to be
:47:56. > :47:59.It is not just about who is the most successful at lobbying.
:48:00. > :48:03.It is a good metaphor for the kind of decisions
:48:04. > :48:06.that always have to be made at Government level anyway, which is
:48:07. > :48:09.you can't do everything you might want to do, so you have to
:48:10. > :48:15.I know Norman will be lobbyhng hard for his part of the
:48:16. > :48:17.coastline, and it is about laking sure that central government
:48:18. > :48:21.recognise there is a strong case to be made locally.
:48:22. > :48:27.But you can't protect absolttely every inch of
:48:28. > :48:29.coast, you have to focus on the things
:48:30. > :48:30.of the most significant in
:48:31. > :48:34.And you also have to decide what you are going to
:48:35. > :48:38.save because the problem moves down the coastline as well, doesn't it?
:48:39. > :48:40.Now, the state of our health services.
:48:41. > :48:42.Despite making huge savings, the majority of acute
:48:43. > :48:43.hospitals in this region can't balance their books.
:48:44. > :48:47.This year, totalling ?336 million across the
:48:48. > :48:53.The highest single deficit is at Addenbrooke's in Cambridge.
:48:54. > :48:55.Which expects to see a hole in its
:48:56. > :49:04.finances of ?74 million by the end of the year.
:49:05. > :49:06.They are having to make savhngs and facing
:49:07. > :49:09.Even before we reached the critical winter period,
:49:10. > :49:12.black alerts, where there are no beds available, are becoming the
:49:13. > :49:21.At times, health services fdel like they are on life support.
:49:22. > :49:24.The strain of having to makd savings where providing care for increasing
:49:25. > :49:26.numbers of patients is beginning to show.
:49:27. > :49:29.Since the start of the year, hospitals like Norfolk and Norwich
:49:30. > :49:31.and the Queen Elizabeth in King's Lynn have
:49:32. > :49:34.had months of being on
:49:35. > :49:37.black alert, when the hospital is completely full and no bdds are
:49:38. > :49:41.Earlier this month, four of Essex's hospitals were affected,
:49:42. > :49:46.and there has been a month period at Addenbrooke's in Cambridge, too.
:49:47. > :49:48.Which brings into question whether the phrase winter crisis sthll
:49:49. > :49:51.There is no winter pressures any more.
:49:52. > :49:55.Numbers of attendances through A E continue
:49:56. > :50:03.At Northampton General's dahly bed management meeting, every
:50:04. > :50:07.purple line represents a patient who is waiting at A E for more
:50:08. > :50:09.Thanks, firstly, for Wednesday, Thursday,
:50:10. > :50:13.Here, they have more than 100 patients who are actually wdll
:50:14. > :50:19.In the first eight months of this year, almost 40,000
:50:20. > :50:22.bed days were lost at Northamptonshire's main hospital
:50:23. > :50:25.because patients where they are longer than the needed to bd.
:50:26. > :50:30.One of the highest figures in the country.
:50:31. > :50:34.A large part of the problem is caused by so-called bed blockers,
:50:35. > :50:37.people who have to stay in hospital longer than they need to because
:50:38. > :50:39.care can't be found for them at home.
:50:40. > :50:45.And I know people on the wards have been saying that they wanted to get
:50:46. > :50:51.Because there weren't enough carers in place.
:50:52. > :50:53.The Government wants to
:50:54. > :50:56.bring together health and social care services that were
:50:57. > :50:57.traditionally funded by local authorities
:50:58. > :50:58.to try and reduce the
:50:59. > :51:03.But our councils are struggling to cope.
:51:04. > :51:06.If you look at the Better Care Fund.
:51:07. > :51:09.If you look at the things wd are doing with the health and wdll-being
:51:10. > :51:12.board, and you look at how we are looking to change thhs,
:51:13. > :51:15.that can go part of the way to addressing the
:51:16. > :51:22.But in the longer term, we are going to have to havd a
:51:23. > :51:25.conversation about the amount of money we put into servicds.
:51:26. > :51:27.To care for a couple like the Kings, Suffolk
:51:28. > :51:29.County Council has already had to plug a ?500 million
:51:30. > :51:30.shortfall this year in
:51:31. > :51:33.And Norfolk is facing a ?7 million hole over the
:51:34. > :51:38.The pressure on social care has grown.
:51:39. > :51:44.We have seen recurring cuts to cancel budgets
:51:45. > :51:49.that pay for those services by and large.
:51:50. > :51:53.quarter fewer older people are receiving that kind of treatment
:51:54. > :51:55.The East of England has a particularly fast
:51:56. > :51:59.The number of over 65 is is set to rise by 20%.
:52:00. > :52:02.Over the next decade, which is more than all other groups combined.
:52:03. > :52:04.And that does place additional pressure
:52:05. > :52:07.And it is becoming increasingly difficult for our
:52:08. > :52:09.hospitals to follow Governmdnt plans and deliver everything to everyone.
:52:10. > :52:12.The Government wants to keep its health
:52:13. > :52:17.budget down and has asked for savings.
:52:18. > :52:20.Many hospitals in our region are saving more than
:52:21. > :52:23.Yet despite that, only two of them are managing to
:52:24. > :52:27.balance their books, and the rest are running deficits.
:52:28. > :52:30.It is true that in parts of the country, demand
:52:31. > :52:32.has gone up by more than they anticipated.
:52:33. > :52:38.But there are lots of things we can do and are doing very successfully
:52:39. > :52:39.to help hospitals control their budgets.
:52:40. > :52:45.Difficulties in accident and emergency are all too f`miliar.
:52:46. > :52:49.But maybe some people do not really need to be here.
:52:50. > :52:59.There should be another way to solve the problem.
:53:00. > :53:06.This week, Broomfield Hospital in Chelmsford got tough in
:53:07. > :53:09.Telling some prospective patients to go elsewhere.
:53:10. > :53:11.It is something we may see lore of as our
:53:12. > :53:13.health services face difficult decisions ahead.
:53:14. > :53:22.We pay less for our health care than most countries in
:53:23. > :53:27.But I think there is a management issue.
:53:28. > :53:28.It is about working with
:53:29. > :53:37.The front door to the health service is via social care.
:53:38. > :53:41.We have had the sustainable transformation plan,
:53:42. > :53:43.where we're meant to be working together with the health service.
:53:44. > :53:48.Or communication between he`lth and local government.
:53:49. > :53:51.Don't we have to put them both in the same basket?
:53:52. > :53:54.And say one person organises social care and the health service?
:53:55. > :53:58.But there hasn't been that integration.
:53:59. > :54:01.Yes, we do need to do that `nd it needs to be under one
:54:02. > :54:04.basket and one heading to gdt them to work together.
:54:05. > :54:07.But it hasn't happened so f`r, so the idea of the
:54:08. > :54:11.We have seen, in my view, from my perspective, the
:54:12. > :54:14.health service just saying, we are going to do it.
:54:15. > :54:16.And occasionally asking for some data, but very late
:54:17. > :54:32.Should it be local or should it be national?
:54:33. > :54:34.If we get the elected mayors is
:54:35. > :54:42.shouldn't they have the powdr of the health service?
:54:43. > :54:44.Again, I'm going to get in trouble with my whips
:54:45. > :54:47.because I keep agreeing with Dave on a number of issues,
:54:48. > :54:49.but I do think that there ndeds to be close
:54:50. > :54:52.integration of the whole provision of health in a local area.
:54:53. > :54:54.From GP surgery preventing people going to
:54:55. > :54:56.hospitals, but also social care to enable people to leave hospital
:54:57. > :55:01.When you are putting big money into a local area,
:55:02. > :55:03.that accountability is so very important.
:55:04. > :55:06.So perhaps, as we are starthng to see in Manchester, local
:55:07. > :55:08.identified politicians, whether they be mayors or other
:55:09. > :55:10.models, perhaps an evolution of a Police and Crime
:55:11. > :55:13.Commissioner, could hold th`t money and be accountable for how ht is
:55:14. > :55:16.But they haven't got enough money, whoever runs it.
:55:17. > :55:20.I would say this, there is lore money going into the
:55:21. > :55:22.National Health Service than at any point in its history.
:55:23. > :55:24.There are more people using the National Health
:55:25. > :55:30.There are more people using it, but the Government has met the
:55:31. > :55:33.commitment that NHS England asked for over the course of this
:55:34. > :55:43.It looks as though NHS England got the wrong
:55:44. > :55:50.But there are some things we need to do.
:55:51. > :55:52.I think there are some issuds about structures, management,
:55:53. > :55:54.and also about the habits of health users.
:55:55. > :56:05.We do need more money but wd also need to run the system diffdrently.
:56:06. > :56:08.To have that risk aversion where people go to A and they go
:56:09. > :56:12.from a care home because thdy can't get the Dr to say they don't need to
:56:13. > :56:15.So we are seeing lots of people turn up.
:56:16. > :56:17.Bedford Hospital has 74 ambtlances turn up on
:56:18. > :56:23.That can't be right, when many of those may not have
:56:24. > :56:37.Presumably, they had to quete and then there weren't ambulances
:56:38. > :56:38.available, so it has a knock-on effect?
:56:39. > :56:42.But it is far more expensivd to treat people if
:56:43. > :56:45.In the clip, we saw people who didn't need to go
:56:46. > :56:53.Some of the care staff is to try and integrate that and
:56:54. > :56:55.say, if the hospital had some people actually
:56:56. > :56:57.in the care homes, you
:56:58. > :56:59.could say they don't need to go to hospital.
:57:00. > :57:01.You could could treat them where they are.
:57:02. > :57:05.It needs to be working together from the first principles.
:57:06. > :57:13.We have to do something. But who will have responsibility for the
:57:14. > :57:20.money? Some will devolve, Essex won't? We will have to get tsed to
:57:21. > :57:26.the fact that there will be different systems of Governlent
:57:27. > :57:30.across the country. Elected mayors, we are not going to have a one size
:57:31. > :57:32.fits all. That is probably right but we will have to get used to it. They
:57:33. > :57:43.must talk about it. A new 21-mile stretch
:57:44. > :57:49.of the England Coast Path rtnning from Sea Palling to Hopton-on-Sea
:57:50. > :57:51.has been opened I think it is very important that
:57:52. > :57:59.people who enjoy the paths respect the paths in the interest
:58:00. > :58:02.of the owners alongside the paths. New research shows single
:58:03. > :58:06.parents in Milton Keynes are owed ?12 million
:58:07. > :58:12.MPs are worried that the new child maintenance service won't hdlp.
:58:13. > :58:14.Before the new system is fully rolled out,
:58:15. > :58:20.are there any tweaks we
:58:21. > :58:22.can suggest to the central Government to make
:58:23. > :58:27.A high-tech firm in Huntington has decided to expand abroad following
:58:28. > :58:28.the voted to leave the European Union.
:58:29. > :58:30.Enocam needs engineers, but so
:58:31. > :58:32.few people from the EU are applying for jobs
:58:33. > :58:33.here now, it's decided to
:58:34. > :58:39.And an Essex MP has been reprimanded in Parliament for heckling Jeremy
:58:40. > :58:42.Corbyn during Prime Minister's Question Time.
:58:43. > :58:45.You are imperilling your own health, man.
:58:46. > :58:54.It is a source of great concern to me.
:58:55. > :59:04.There is an honour which is, I won't on a family programle
:59:05. > :59:08.give it the full name, but I was told off by the Speaker
:59:09. > :59:15.criticism of the leader of the opposition, yeah.
:59:16. > :59:21.He has a very sharp sense of humour, a very good sense of humour.
:59:22. > :59:23.And you didn't see it on the footage,
:59:24. > :59:28.did the traditional kind of slight bow to the head, and he bowdd back,
:59:29. > :59:37.The other things which came up in our 60 Seconds,
:59:38. > :59:40.we are talking about all sorts of problems, talking about
:59:41. > :59:47.Not just Brexit, but the skills and the
:59:48. > :59:50.And I go round companies and there is a
:59:51. > :59:52.difficulty in getting enginders and having the right skills to allow
:59:53. > :00:06.I don't know details, but I know we to have our engineering
:00:07. > :00:09.engineering base built on, and we need the skills to
:00:10. > :00:12.If you talk to people, they will Say that
:00:13. > :00:14.lots of people are training to be engineers.
:00:15. > :00:17.But you look at the North Sda, you look at this particular
:00:18. > :00:19.business, it is a problem gdtting the right training to peopld.
:00:20. > :00:21.One of the things I find very frustrating
:00:22. > :00:24.is we spent years through the ' 0s telling youngsters that unldss they
:00:25. > :00:27.wore a suit to work and is had a degree
:00:28. > :00:31.wore a suit to work and is had a degree that they weren't valued.
:00:32. > :00:34.We had this whole thing abott half the population having to go to
:00:35. > :00:36.There are some really fulfilling, well-paid, important
:00:37. > :00:39.jobs in things like engineering and that kind of stuff.
:00:40. > :00:43.Well, both of you, thank you very much for being with
:00:44. > :00:56.You can keep in touch via our website.
:00:57. > :01:01.Barely more than a week now until polling day,
:01:02. > :01:11.and a new revelation rocks the US Presidential election campaign.
:01:12. > :01:14.If it wasn't bizarre enough, it just got more bizarre.
:01:15. > :01:16.The FBI have reopened their investigation into Hillary Clinton's
:01:17. > :01:18.use of private email servers whilst she was Secretary
:01:19. > :01:26.of State, after the discovery of further emails.
:01:27. > :01:31.Though not on her laptop or even the State Department.
:01:32. > :01:34.Donald Trump is saying that it's bigger than Watergate -
:01:35. > :01:36.so could it swing the election in his favour?
:01:37. > :01:38.We spoke to top US pollster, Frank Luntz.
:01:39. > :01:42.The FBI investigation is happening so late in the election process
:01:43. > :01:46.that it would be very difficult to derail a Clinton victory.
:01:47. > :01:49.That said, if there is one thing that could keep Hillary Clinton
:01:50. > :01:54.from the presidency, it's an FBI investigation.
:01:55. > :01:57.But there's still only four states that really matter, Florida, Ohio,
:01:58. > :02:02.Right now, Clinton has beyond the margin of error leads
:02:03. > :02:09.This would have to have a truly significant impact for the election
:02:10. > :02:16.There is a point about a week ago when I was prepared to say that
:02:17. > :02:21.Clinton had a 95% chance of winning this election.
:02:22. > :02:28.Based on what has happened in the last 48 hours,
:02:29. > :02:32.It is still very likely, but I wouldn't bet on it.
:02:33. > :02:36.I thought the 2000 election would be the best election of my lifetime,
:02:37. > :02:40.And then I thought 2008 would be amazing, because we had two
:02:41. > :02:44.challenger candidates and the first African-American President.
:02:45. > :02:53.It is ugly, it's painful, it is as negative as anything
:02:54. > :02:59.The public is angry, the country, overall, is frustrated.
:03:00. > :03:06.But for entertainment value, these candidates probably should
:03:07. > :03:09.have charged us money, because it's better than any movie
:03:10. > :03:11.at ever seen, it's better than any TV show.
:03:12. > :03:23.That was Frank Luntz. He may be right or wrong about Mrs Clinton
:03:24. > :03:32.still having an 80% chance of winning. I would bet on an 80%
:03:33. > :03:36.chance? Yes, absolutely. I spoke to a high-profile American pollster and
:03:37. > :03:41.strategist last night and he took a rather different view to Frank
:03:42. > :03:44.Luntz. He thought, and I think some other high-profile commentators
:03:45. > :03:49.agree, that this is actually much more serious than some people
:03:50. > :03:54.realise. There are an awful lot of undecided voters out there looking
:03:55. > :03:58.for an excuse to vote Trump. They do not like what they see in either
:03:59. > :04:03.candidate. But because this FBI probe is not going to conclude
:04:04. > :04:08.before the election, the question, the doubt over Hillary Clinton,
:04:09. > :04:13.gives them an excuse to back Trump. The thing that will play on the
:04:14. > :04:17.minds of the voters is, could the 100 day honeymoon turning to the 100
:04:18. > :04:23.day divorce? Which even be impeached? It may give some people
:04:24. > :04:27.an excuse not to vote for Mrs Clinton. It could provide a problem
:04:28. > :04:35.in terms of energising her base The battle ground almost matters more
:04:36. > :04:41.than the polls. Florida and Pennsylvania have been trending to
:04:42. > :04:46.Mrs Clinton. Mr Trump needs to win both. He does not get in without
:04:47. > :04:52.both. He needs both. Just coming up in the latest BBC News, the
:04:53. > :04:58.Washington Post tracking poll, Mrs Clinton is now only one point ahead
:04:59. > :05:03.in the national poll. One point Even given my caveat that the state
:05:04. > :05:09.battles are most important. That is incredibly close? It is. Polls
:05:10. > :05:17.yesterday showed Trump nationally closing of. -- up. There is a clear
:05:18. > :05:20.trend and movement. This has reinforced everything that people
:05:21. > :05:24.who have a problem with Hillary Clinton know about Hillary Clinton.
:05:25. > :05:29.Trump is running this insurgent campaign. We have seen at here with
:05:30. > :05:33.Brexit. If you are running an insurgent campaign, you want to be
:05:34. > :05:37.against the ultimate establishment insider and that is what Hillary
:05:38. > :05:43.Clinton is. I suggested it was bizarre. Fathoming the behaviour of
:05:44. > :05:47.the FBI is interesting as well. This is a separate investigation into a
:05:48. > :05:52.former congressman, Anthony Wiener, who had done all sorts of things. He
:05:53. > :06:00.seemed to be sex text thing a minor. A 15-year-old girl. The FBI
:06:01. > :06:07.investigate. They get his laptop to see what else he has been too. In
:06:08. > :06:11.the course of that, his wife, now separated, the closest adviser to
:06:12. > :06:20.Hillary Clinton, they find on the laptop e-mails involving the Clinton
:06:21. > :06:27.server to her. And yet the FBI cannot, it needs now a separate
:06:28. > :06:30.warrant to access these e-mails It hasn't got that yet. It has got a
:06:31. > :06:37.warrant to do the congressman e-mails. On the basis of not knowing
:06:38. > :06:45.the content, this has happened. Yeah. Who knows? He is a Republican,
:06:46. > :06:49.this guy. Earlier this year he was being praised to the hilt by
:06:50. > :06:54.Democrats. Absolutely. The timing is a nightmare for her. You described
:06:55. > :07:00.the whole sequence. There is nothing definitive to doubt in this
:07:01. > :07:06.sequence. All he is saying is he has discovered more e-mails in effect.
:07:07. > :07:13.They are from the congressman's former wife. On Anthony Wiener's
:07:14. > :07:20.laptop, which apparently she used sometimes. But what that shows is
:07:21. > :07:25.that for all the scrutiny of modern politicians, they cannot escape
:07:26. > :07:29.caricature. And as Tim was just saying, her weakness is perceived to
:07:30. > :07:34.be secretive, elitism and complacency about that elitism. And
:07:35. > :07:40.so just the announcement of a reopening of the investigation so
:07:41. > :07:44.fuels that caricature, you have just revealed a poll giving her a 1%
:07:45. > :07:49.lead. That must be related to what has happened. It is without a shred
:07:50. > :07:55.of evidence that she has done anything wrong. You can see how
:07:56. > :08:00.because people only see things encourage kids, that is deadly
:08:01. > :08:05.serious. -- in caricature. An American friend of mine said we have
:08:06. > :08:12.got our October surprise but we don't know what it is. The FBI must
:08:13. > :08:19.surely come under massive pressure. It did its -- it did this against
:08:20. > :08:22.the Justice Department. The difficulty the FBI had was that this
:08:23. > :08:27.information, for what it's worth, it came to them. Were they not to have
:08:28. > :08:31.said something and it worked to have come out later, they would have been
:08:32. > :08:36.accused of a massive cover-up. They are dammed if they do, dammed if
:08:37. > :08:40.they don't. There is still time for another surprise. And early November
:08:41. > :08:45.surprise. Who knows if there might still be something that comes out on
:08:46. > :08:49.Donald Trump? This is the first election where I can remember we
:08:50. > :08:54.have had two October surprises already. There are is stuff about
:08:55. > :08:59.tapes knocking around about Donald Trump saying racist things. The
:09:00. > :09:02.Clintons have got a lot of friends. It would be a big surprise if we did
:09:03. > :09:05.not see anything else in the next few days.
:09:06. > :09:11.Just when you think it could not get more interesting, it has. There has
:09:12. > :09:12.been plenty in the papers lately about the Ukip leadership saying
:09:13. > :09:16.unpleasant things about each other. But what about Mr Farage himself?
:09:17. > :09:18.What's he up to? Well, on BBC Two tonight we may
:09:19. > :09:21.find out the answer. Well, I'm led to believe
:09:22. > :09:28.she's very experienced. But I don't think Strictly Come
:09:29. > :09:30.Dancing is for me. That is, unless, of course,
:09:31. > :09:36.you fancy popping a cheeky zero No, I don't think Strictly
:09:37. > :09:40.Come Dancing is for me. Well, you tell Mr Balls he has just
:09:41. > :09:46.lost your programme one viewer. I might have nothing to do these
:09:47. > :10:08.days but, realistically, Well, that wasn't Nigel Farage. It
:10:09. > :10:13.is a BBC comedy on tonight. Nigel Farage gets his life back. A number
:10:14. > :10:19.of runners and riders. Let's come straight down to it. Who would be
:10:20. > :10:24.the next leader of Ukip? Probably Paul Nuttall. He is the favourite.
:10:25. > :10:29.The one who has the backing, not very enthusiastic backing, is Rahim
:10:30. > :10:40.Cassandra. And also Aaron Banks a big donor. The best of a rather weak
:10:41. > :10:51.lot. I think Paul Nuttall should squeak through. I interviewed all
:10:52. > :10:54.three of them this week. Mr Cassandra is a lively character and
:10:55. > :10:58.he knows how to make a few headlines. With a bit of money
:10:59. > :11:01.behind him, anything is possible. This is a guy who has been to the
:11:02. > :11:13.States, who has literally studied what Trump has done. Pees on
:11:14. > :11:19.secondment for the time being. The guy who is his line manager is one
:11:20. > :11:22.of Donald Trump's campaign stop He is extraordinarily right-wing. I am
:11:23. > :11:31.told he kept a picture of Enoch Powell by his bed. Barry Goldwater
:11:32. > :11:38.is one of his heroes, for example. There are other candidates. I would
:11:39. > :11:44.suggest, put out as a hypothesis, Paul Nuttall is Labour's worst
:11:45. > :11:49.nightmare. They are more vulnerable in the North. Paul Nuttall is from
:11:50. > :11:53.Merseyside, a working-class background, performs well on
:11:54. > :11:57.television. He is a really good interviewee. He is one of the best
:11:58. > :12:02.around in politics at the moment. However, I think whoever gets it has
:12:03. > :12:09.a massive task. The clip of this Nigel Farage satire partly shows
:12:10. > :12:13.why. His dominance was overwhelming. He, in many ways, did a brilliant
:12:14. > :12:18.job at keeping the show on the road. The trouble for all new political
:12:19. > :12:23.parties is keeping it going is tough. A very different party, the
:12:24. > :12:27.SDP, with all those glamorous figures in it, lasted eight years,
:12:28. > :12:30.something like that. I think they are in real trouble at the moment
:12:31. > :12:36.because of the implosion we have been seeing in front of our eyes and
:12:37. > :12:46.the ideal -- ideological splits Whoever gets it will face a tough
:12:47. > :12:48.tussle. All three of the main contenders want to put Nigel Farage
:12:49. > :12:53.in the House of Lords. They were falling over themselves to soak up
:12:54. > :12:57.two farads. That is how you win this election.
:12:58. > :13:04.Mr Aaron Banks, who is he putting his money on? He said he supports
:13:05. > :13:09.Rahim. I know Mr Banks is utterly fed with the shenanigans in Ukip. He
:13:10. > :13:13.thinks it is terribly disorganised, dysfunctional and doesn't want a
:13:14. > :13:15.great deal to do with it for the foreseeable future.
:13:16. > :13:20.It is not quite Trump the Clinton but it is interesting. That is it.
:13:21. > :13:26.The Daily Politics is back tomorrow. And all of next week. Jo Coburn will
:13:27. > :13:30.be your next Sunday because I am off to the United States to begin to
:13:31. > :13:37.rehearse presenting the BBC's US election night coverage on the th
:13:38. > :13:38.of November. It will be here on BBC One, BBC
:13:39. > :13:40.world, BBC News Channel and BBC online.
:13:41. > :14:11.Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.
:14:12. > :14:14.A stone stained with blood and beset with a curse.
:14:15. > :14:18.The Moonstone is of inestimable value in India.
:14:19. > :14:22.Its appointed guardians would move heaven and earth to reclaim it
:14:23. > :14:30.Let us not let the past haunt all of our actions.
:14:31. > :14:31.You've got to do something! It's only you that can!
:14:32. > :14:32.He's a scientist, brilliant apparently.
:14:33. > :14:41.But you may be bringing people over here who did things during the war.
:14:42. > :14:46.I will not work for you. I will not work for the British Government
:14:47. > :14:51.Let us not let the past haunt all of our actions.