:00:33. > :00:37.It's Sunday morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:38. > :00:41.Theresa May pledged to help people who are "just about managing",
:00:42. > :00:43.and this week her government will announce new measures to boost
:00:44. > :00:46.the number of affordable homes and improve conditions for renters.
:00:47. > :00:57.After a US court suspends Donald Trump's travel ban and rules
:00:58. > :01:01.it could be unconstitutional, one of the President's inner circle
:01:02. > :01:03.tells me there is no "chaos", and that Donald Trump's White House
:01:04. > :01:07.is making good on his campaign promises.
:01:08. > :01:09.As the Government gets into gear for two years
:01:10. > :01:12.of Brexit negotiations, we report on the haggling to come
:01:13. > :01:15.over the UK's Brexit bill for leaving the European Union -
:01:16. > :01:20.and the costs and savings once we've left.
:01:21. > :01:41.And with me, as always, a trio of top political
:01:42. > :01:42.journalists - Helen Lewis, Tom Newton Dunn
:01:43. > :01:46.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme,
:01:47. > :01:53.So, more anguish to come this week for the Labour party as the House
:01:54. > :01:55.of Commons continues to debate the bill which paves the way
:01:56. > :02:01.Last week, Labour split over the Article 50 bill,
:02:02. > :02:04.with a fifth of Labour MPs defying Jeremy Corbyn to vote against.
:02:05. > :02:10.Five shadow ministers resigned, and it's expected Mr Corbyn
:02:11. > :02:12.will have to sack more frontbenchers once the bill is voted
:02:13. > :02:17.Add to that the fact that the Labour Leader's close ally
:02:18. > :02:20.Diane Abbot failed to turn up for the initial vote -
:02:21. > :02:22.blaming illness - and things don't look too rosy
:02:23. > :02:24.The Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry was asked
:02:25. > :02:28.about the situation earlier on the Andrew Marr show.
:02:29. > :02:33.The Labour Party is a national party and we represent the nation,
:02:34. > :02:37.and the nation is divided on this, and it is very difficult.
:02:38. > :02:42.Many MPs representing majority Remain constituencies have this very
:02:43. > :02:44.difficult balancing act between - do I represent my constituency,
:02:45. > :02:48.Labour, as a national party, have a clear view.
:02:49. > :02:56.We fought to stay in Europe, but the public have spoken,
:02:57. > :03:01.But the important thing now is not to give Theresa May a blank check,
:03:02. > :03:07.we have to make sure we get the right deal for the country.
:03:08. > :03:15.That was Emily Thornberry. Helen, is this like a form of Chinese water
:03:16. > :03:18.torture for the Labour Party? And for journalists, to! We are in a
:03:19. > :03:22.situation where no one really thinks it's working. A lot of authority has
:03:23. > :03:27.drained away from Jeremy Corbyn but no one can do anything about it.
:03:28. > :03:31.What we saw from the leadership contest is on the idea of a Blairite
:03:32. > :03:35.plot to get rid of him. You are essentially stuck in stasis. The
:03:36. > :03:41.only person that can remove Jeremy Corbyn is God or Jeremy Corbyn.
:03:42. > :03:45.Authority may have moved from Mr Corbyn but it's not going anywhere
:03:46. > :03:51.else, there's not an alternative centre of authority? Not quite, but
:03:52. > :03:55.Clive Lewis is name emerging, the Shadow Business Secretary. A lot of
:03:56. > :03:59.the Labour left, people like Paul Mason, really like him and would
:04:00. > :04:04.like to see him in Corbyn. I think that's why Jeremy Corbyn do
:04:05. > :04:09.something extraordinary next week and abstain from Article 50, the
:04:10. > :04:15.main bill itself, to keep his Shadow Cabinet together. That clip on
:04:16. > :04:20.Andrew Marr, point blank refusing to say if Labour will vote for Article
:04:21. > :04:25.50. The only way Jeremy Corbyn can hold this mess together now is to
:04:26. > :04:28.abstain, which would be catastrophic across Brexit constituencies in the
:04:29. > :04:36.North. The problem with abstention is everyone will say on the issue of
:04:37. > :04:40.our time, the official opposition hasn't got coherent or considered
:04:41. > :04:44.policy? I love the way Emily Thornberry said the country is
:04:45. > :04:47.divided and we represent the country, in other words we are
:04:48. > :04:50.divided at the party as well. The other thing that was a crucial
:04:51. > :04:54.moment this week is the debate over whether there should be a so-called
:04:55. > :04:59.meaningful vote by MPs on the deal that Theresa May gets. That is a
:05:00. > :05:05.point of real danger for Brexit supporters. It may well be there is
:05:06. > :05:09.a coalition of Labour and SNP and Remain MPs, Tory MPs, who vote for
:05:10. > :05:13.that so-called meaningful vote that could undermine Theresa May's
:05:14. > :05:18.negotiation. So Theresa May could have had troubles as well, not plain
:05:19. > :05:23.sailing for her? There is no point, apart from lonely Ken Clarke voting
:05:24. > :05:26.against Article 50, no point in Tory remainders rebelling. It would have
:05:27. > :05:31.been a token gesture with no support. But there might be
:05:32. > :05:35.meaningful amendments. One might be on the status of EU nationals... The
:05:36. > :05:43.government could lose that. There might be a majority for some of
:05:44. > :05:46.those amendments. The ins and outs of the Labour Party, it fascinates
:05:47. > :05:48.the Labour Party and journalists. I suspect the country has just moved
:05:49. > :05:53.on and doesn't care. You are probably quite right. To be honest I
:05:54. > :05:58.struggled to get Labour split stories in my paper any more, the
:05:59. > :06:03.bar is so high to make it news. Where it does matter is now not
:06:04. > :06:08.everyone will pay huge amounts to the -- of attention to the vote on
:06:09. > :06:13.Wednesday. But come the general election in 2020, maybe a little
:06:14. > :06:17.earlier, every Tory leaflet and every labour constituency will say
:06:18. > :06:20.this guy, this goal, they refuse to vote for Brexit, do you want them in
:06:21. > :06:25.power? That is going to be really hard for them. The story next week
:06:26. > :06:30.may be Tory splits rather than just Labour ones, we will see.
:06:31. > :06:33.Theresa May has made a big deal out of her commitment to help people
:06:34. > :06:36.on middle incomes who are "just about managing", and early this week
:06:37. > :06:39.we should get a good sense of what that means in practice -
:06:40. > :06:42.when plans to bring down the cost of housing and protect renters
:06:43. > :06:43.are published in the Government's new white paper.
:06:44. > :06:46.Theresa May has promised she'll kick off Brexit negotiations with the EU
:06:47. > :06:49.by the end of March, and after months of shadow-boxing
:06:50. > :06:53.Ellie Price reports on the battle to come over the UK's Brexit bill,
:06:54. > :06:55.and the likely costs and savings once we've left.
:06:56. > :06:57.It was the figure that defined the EU referendum campaign.
:06:58. > :07:03.It was also a figure that was fiercely disputed, but the promise -
:07:04. > :07:06.vote leave and Britain won't have to pay into the EU are any more.
:07:07. > :07:08.So, is that what's going to happen now?
:07:09. > :07:12.The trouble with buses is you tend to have to wait for them
:07:13. > :07:14.and when Theresa May triggers Article 50, the clock starts
:07:15. > :07:19.She needs something quicker, something more sporty.
:07:20. > :07:25.According to the most recent Treasury figures,
:07:26. > :07:27.Britain's gross contribution to the EU, after the rebate
:07:28. > :07:30.is taken into account, is about ?14 billion a year.
:07:31. > :07:36.There are some complicating factors that means it can go up
:07:37. > :07:38.or down year on year, but that's roughly how much the UK
:07:39. > :07:40.will no longer sending to Brussels post-Brexit.
:07:41. > :07:44.But, there are other payments that Britain will have to shell out for.
:07:45. > :07:47.First and foremost, the so-called divorce settlement.
:07:48. > :07:52.It is being said, and openly by Commissioner Barnier
:07:53. > :07:57.and others in the Commission, that the total financial liability
:07:58. > :07:59.as they see it might be in the order of 40-60 billion
:08:00. > :08:05.The BBC understands the figure EU negotiators are likely
:08:06. > :08:10.to settle on is far lower, around 34 billion euros,
:08:11. > :08:12.but what does the money they are going to argue
:08:13. > :08:18.Well, that's how much Britain owes for stuff in the EU budget that's
:08:19. > :08:21.already signed up for until 2020, one year after we are
:08:22. > :08:26.Historically, Britain pays 12% in contributions,
:08:27. > :08:29.so the cost to the UK is likely to be between ten
:08:30. > :08:37.Then they will look at the 200-250 billion euros of underfunded
:08:38. > :08:38.spending commitments, the so-called RAL.
:08:39. > :08:46.Britain could also be liable for around 5-7 billion euros
:08:47. > :08:51.for its share in the pensions bill for EU staff, that's again
:08:52. > :08:53.12% of an overall bill of 50-60 billion.
:08:54. > :08:55.Finally there's a share of our assets held by the EU.
:08:56. > :09:00.They include things like this building, the European Commission
:09:01. > :09:08.Britain could argue it deserves a share back of around 18 billion
:09:09. > :09:11.euros from a portfolio that's said to be worth 153 billion euros.
:09:12. > :09:14.So, lots for the two sides to discuss in two years of talks.
:09:15. > :09:16.They have a great opportunity with the Article 50 talks
:09:17. > :09:21.because actually they can hold us to ransom.
:09:22. > :09:24.They can say, "You figure out money, we will talk about your trade.
:09:25. > :09:27.But until you've figured out the money, we won't," so I think
:09:28. > :09:30.a lot of European states think they are in a very strong
:09:31. > :09:32.negotiating position at the moment and they intend to make
:09:33. > :09:38.The principle is clear, the days of Britain making vast
:09:39. > :09:43.contributions to the European Union every year will end.
:09:44. > :09:47.Theresa May has already indicated that she would want to sign back up
:09:48. > :09:53.to a number of EU agencies on a program-by-program basis.
:09:54. > :09:55.The Europol for example, that's the European crime
:09:56. > :10:00.agency, or Erasmus Plus, which wants student exchanges.
:10:01. > :10:03.If everything stays the same as it is now, it would cost the UK
:10:04. > :10:06.675 million euros a year, based on analysis by
:10:07. > :10:14.But there are likely to be agencies we don't choose to participate in.
:10:15. > :10:24.If we only opted back to those dealing with security,
:10:25. > :10:25.trade, universities and, say, climate change,
:10:26. > :10:28.it could come with a price tag of 370 million euros per year.
:10:29. > :10:31.Of course that's if our European neighbours allow us.
:10:32. > :10:33.I wonder if they're going to let me in!
:10:34. > :10:36.There will also be a cost to creating a new system to resolve
:10:37. > :10:39.trade disputes with other nations once we are no longer part
:10:40. > :10:44.Take the EFTA Court which rules on disputes
:10:45. > :10:46.between the EU and Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein.
:10:47. > :10:51.That costs 4 million euros to run each year,
:10:52. > :10:54.though in the Brexit White Paper published this week,
:10:55. > :10:56.the Government said it will not be constrained by precedent
:10:57. > :11:01.Finally, would the EU get behind the idea of Britain making some
:11:02. > :11:07.contribution for some preferential access to its market?
:11:08. > :11:10.The sort of thing that Theresa May seems to be hinting
:11:11. > :11:12.at are sectoral arrangements, some kind of partial membership
:11:13. > :11:20.Switzerland, which has a far less wide-ranging deal than Norway,
:11:21. > :11:24.pays about 320 million a year for what it gets into the EU budget,
:11:25. > :11:26.but it's not exactly the Swiss deal that we're after.
:11:27. > :11:29.The EU institutions hate the Swiss deal because it is codified
:11:30. > :11:31.in a huge number of treaties that are messy, complicated
:11:32. > :11:33.and cumbersome, and they really don't want to replicate
:11:34. > :11:40.Theresa May has been at pains to insist she's in the driving seat
:11:41. > :11:42.when it comes to these negotiations, and that she's
:11:43. > :11:52.But with so much money up for discussion, it may not be such
:11:53. > :12:09.Sadly she didn't get to keep the car!
:12:10. > :12:12.And I've been joined to discuss the Brexit balance sheet
:12:13. > :12:14.by the director of the Centre for European Reform, Charles Grant,
:12:15. > :12:17.and by Henry Newman who runs the think tank Open Europe.
:12:18. > :12:24.Henry Newman, these figures that are being thrown about in Brussels at
:12:25. > :12:28.the moment, and exit bill of 40-60,000,000,000. What do you make
:12:29. > :12:31.of them? I think it is an opening gambit from the institutions and we
:12:32. > :12:38.should take them seriously. We listened to Mr Rogers, the former
:12:39. > :12:41.ambassador to Brussels in the House of Commons last week, speaking about
:12:42. > :12:46.the sort of positions the EU is likely to take in the negotiation. I
:12:47. > :12:50.personally think the Prime Minister should be more concerned about
:12:51. > :12:52.getting the right sort of trade arrangements, subsequent to our
:12:53. > :12:57.departure, than worrying about the exact detail of the divorce
:12:58. > :13:01.settlement and the Bill. They might not let them go on to trade until
:13:02. > :13:06.they resolve this matter. Where does the Brexit bill, the cost of exit,
:13:07. > :13:12.if there is to be one, in terms of a sum of money, where does that come
:13:13. > :13:15.in the negotiations, upfront or at the end? The European Commission has
:13:16. > :13:20.a firm line on this. You have to talk about the Brexit bill and the
:13:21. > :13:22.divorce settlement before you talk about the future relationship.
:13:23. > :13:27.Therefore they are saying if you don't sign up for 60 billion or
:13:28. > :13:30.thereabouts, we won't talk about the future. Other member states take a
:13:31. > :13:33.softer line than that and think you probably have to talk about the
:13:34. > :13:39.divorce settlement and Brexit bill as the same -- at the same time as
:13:40. > :13:43.the economic situation. If you can do both at the same time, the
:13:44. > :13:48.atmosphere may be better natured. You have spoken to people in
:13:49. > :13:55.Brussels and are part of a think tank, how Revista gives the figure
:13:56. > :13:59.or is it an opening gambit? Most member states and EU institutions
:14:00. > :14:01.believe they think it is the true figure but when the negotiations
:14:02. > :14:04.start adding the number will come down. As long as the British are
:14:05. > :14:10.prepared to sign up to the principle of we owe you a bit of money, as the
:14:11. > :14:15.cheque, then people will compromise. What is the ballpark? You had a
:14:16. > :14:19.figure of 34 billion, that is news to me, nobody knows because
:14:20. > :14:24.negotiations haven't started but I think something lower than 60. Even
:14:25. > :14:30.60 would be politically toxic for a British government? I think Theresa
:14:31. > :14:33.May is in a strong position, she has united the Conservative Party. You
:14:34. > :14:38.could expect coming into this year all the Conservative divisions would
:14:39. > :14:45.be laid bare by Gina Miller. But she is leading a united party. Labour
:14:46. > :14:50.Party are divided... Coogee get away with paying 30 billion? We should
:14:51. > :14:53.give her the benefit of the doubt going into these negotiations, let
:14:54. > :14:56.her keep her cards close to her chest. The speech he gave a few
:14:57. > :15:00.weeks ago at Lancaster House, our judgment was she laid out as much
:15:01. > :15:05.detail as we could have expected at that point. I don't think it's
:15:06. > :15:08.helpful for us now to say, we shouldn't be introducing further red
:15:09. > :15:14.line. I want you to be helpful and find things out. I would suggest if
:15:15. > :15:18.there is a bill, let's say it's 30 billion, let's make it half of what
:15:19. > :15:22.the current claims coming out of Brussels. And of course it won't
:15:23. > :15:26.have to be paid in one year, I assume it's not one cheque but
:15:27. > :15:29.spread over. But we will wait a long time for that 350 million a week or
:15:30. > :15:35.what ever it was that was meant to come from Brussels to spend on the
:15:36. > :15:41.NHS. That's not going to happen for the next five, six or seven years.
:15:42. > :15:47.Everyone has been clear there will be a phased exit programme. The
:15:48. > :15:50.question of whether something is political possible for her in terms
:15:51. > :15:53.of the divorce settlement will depend on what she gets from the
:15:54. > :15:59.European Union in those negotiations. If she ends up
:16:00. > :16:03.settling for a bill of about 30 billion which I think would be
:16:04. > :16:08.politically... No matter how popular she is, politically very difficult
:16:09. > :16:13.for her, it does kill any idea there is a Brexit dividend for Britain.
:16:14. > :16:17.Some of the senior officials in London and Brussels are worried this
:16:18. > :16:21.issue could crash the talks because it may be possible for Theresa May
:16:22. > :16:26.to accept a Brexit bill of 30 billion and if there is no deal and
:16:27. > :16:33.will leave EU without a settlement, there is massive legal uncertainty.
:16:34. > :16:36.What contract law applies? Can our planes take off from Heathrow?
:16:37. > :16:42.Nobody knows what legal rights there are for an EU citizen living here
:16:43. > :16:48.and vice versa. If there is no deal at the end of two years, it is quite
:16:49. > :16:52.bad for the European economy, therefore they think they have all
:16:53. > :16:56.the cards to play and they think if it is mishandled domestically in
:16:57. > :17:02.Britain than we have a crash. But there will be competing interests in
:17:03. > :17:05.Europe, the Baltic states, Eastern Europe, maybe quite similar of the
:17:06. > :17:11.Nordic states, that in turn different from the French, Germans
:17:12. > :17:16.or Italians. How will Europe come to a common view on these things? At
:17:17. > :17:24.the moment they are quite united backing a strong line, except for
:17:25. > :17:30.the polls and Hungarians who are the bad boys of Europe and the Irish who
:17:31. > :17:34.will do anything to keep us happy. We should remember their priority is
:17:35. > :17:38.not economics, they are not thinking how can they maximise trade with the
:17:39. > :17:42.UK, they are under threat. The combination of Trump and Brexit
:17:43. > :17:49.scares them. They want to keep the institutions strong. They also want
:17:50. > :17:55.to keep Britain. That is the one strong card we have, contributing to
:17:56. > :17:59.security. We know we won't be members of the single market, that
:18:00. > :18:04.was in the White Paper. The situation of the customs union is
:18:05. > :18:10.more complicated I would suggest. Does that have cost? If we can be a
:18:11. > :18:16.little bit pregnant in the customs union, does that come with a price
:18:17. > :18:20.ticket? We have got some clarity on the customs union, the Prime
:18:21. > :18:25.Minister said we would not be part of the... We would be able to do our
:18:26. > :18:29.own trade deals outside the EU customs union, and also not be part
:18:30. > :18:33.of the common external tariff. She said she is willing to look at other
:18:34. > :18:36.options and we don't know what that will be so as a think tank we are
:18:37. > :18:39.looking at this over the next few weeks and coming up with
:18:40. > :18:43.recommendations for the Government and looking at how existing
:18:44. > :18:48.boundaries between the EU customs union and other states work in
:18:49. > :18:52.practice. For example between Switzerland and the EU border,
:18:53. > :18:57.Norway and Switzerland, and the UK and Canada. We will want is a
:18:58. > :19:04.country the freedom to do our own free trade deals, that seems to be
:19:05. > :19:09.quite high up there, and to change our external tariffs to the rest of
:19:10. > :19:14.the world. If that's the case, we do seem to be wanting our cake and
:19:15. > :19:18.eating it in the customs union. Talking to some people in London, it
:19:19. > :19:23.is quite clear we are leaving the essentials of the customs union, the
:19:24. > :19:28.tariff, so even if we can minimise controls at the border by having
:19:29. > :19:31.mutual recognition agreements, so we recognise each other's standards,
:19:32. > :19:36.but there will still have to be checks for things like rules of
:19:37. > :19:39.origin and tariffs if tariffs apply, which is a problem for the Irish
:19:40. > :19:43.because nobody has worked out how you can avoid having some sort of
:19:44. > :19:47.customs control on the border between Northern Ireland and the
:19:48. > :19:51.South once we are out of the customs union. I think it's important we
:19:52. > :19:57.don't look at this too much as one side has to win and one side has to
:19:58. > :20:01.lose scenario. We can find ways. My Broadview is what we get out of the
:20:02. > :20:03.negotiation will depend on politics more than economic reality. Economic
:20:04. > :20:21.reality is strong, there's a good case for a trade deal on the
:20:22. > :20:23.solution on the customs deal, but Britain will need to come up with a
:20:24. > :20:26.positive case for our relationship and keep making that case. If it
:20:27. > :20:29.turns out the Government thinks the bill is too high, that we can't
:20:30. > :20:32.really get the free trade deal done in time and it's left hanging in the
:20:33. > :20:35.wind, what are the chances, how I as things stand now that we end up
:20:36. > :20:39.crashing out? I'd say there's a 30% chance that we don't get the free
:20:40. > :20:45.trade agreement at the end of it that Mrs May is aiming for. The very
:20:46. > :20:49.hard crash is you don't even do an Article 50 divorce settlement from
:20:50. > :20:53.you go straight to World Trade Organisation rules. The less hard
:20:54. > :20:57.crash is doing the divorce settlement and transitional
:20:58. > :21:03.arrangements would require European Court of Justice arrangements. We
:21:04. > :21:04.will leave it there. Thank you, both.
:21:05. > :21:06.Donald Trump's flagship policy of extreme vetting of immigrants
:21:07. > :21:08.and a temporary travel ban for citizens of seven mainly-muslim
:21:09. > :21:10.countries was stopped in its tracks this weekend.
:21:11. > :21:14.On Friday a judge ruled the ban should be lifted and that it
:21:15. > :21:19.That prompted President Trump to fire off a series of tweets
:21:20. > :21:21.criticising what he says was a terrible decision
:21:22. > :21:23.by a so-called judge, as he ordered the State Department
:21:24. > :21:31.Now the federal appeals court has rejected his request to reinstate
:21:32. > :21:43.the ban until it hears the case in full.
:21:44. > :21:47.Well yesterday I spoke to Sebastian Gorka, Deputy Assistant
:21:48. > :21:51.I asked him if the confusion over the travel ban
:21:52. > :21:53.was a sign that the President's two-week-old administration
:21:54. > :22:06.There is no chaos, you really shouldn't believe the spin, the
:22:07. > :22:11.facts speak for themselves. 109 people on Saturday were mildly
:22:12. > :22:18.inconvenienced by having their entry into the United States delayed out
:22:19. > :22:27.of 325,000. So let's not get carried away with the left-wing media bias
:22:28. > :22:31.and spin. Hold on, 60,000 - 90,000 people with visas, their visas are
:22:32. > :22:34.no longer valid. That's another issue. You need to listen to what
:22:35. > :22:41.I'm saying. The people who entered on the day of the executive order
:22:42. > :22:48.being implemented worth 109 people out of 325. Whether people won't
:22:49. > :22:57.travelling to America were affected is another matter, so there is no
:22:58. > :23:02.chaos to comment on. Following Iran's latest missile tests,
:23:03. > :23:07.National Security adviser Flint said the US was "Putting Iran on notice",
:23:08. > :23:10.what does that mean? It means we have a new president and we are not
:23:11. > :23:17.going to facilitate the rise of one of the most dangerous nations in the
:23:18. > :23:25.world. We are jettisoning this naive and dangerous policy of the Obama
:23:26. > :23:28.Administration to try and make the Shi'ite dictatorial democracy some
:23:29. > :23:32.kind of counter balance to extremist Sunni groups in the region and that
:23:33. > :23:37.they cannot continue to behave in the way they have behaved for the
:23:38. > :23:42.last 30 years. It is a very simple message. So are there any
:23:43. > :23:49.multilateral alliances that Mr Trump would like to strengthen?
:23:50. > :23:52.Absolutely. If we are looking at the region, if you listen to what
:23:53. > :23:57.President Trump has said and specifically to also the speeches of
:23:58. > :24:02.general Flint, his national security adviser, we are incredibly vested in
:24:03. > :24:09.seeing our Sunni allies in the region come together in a real
:24:10. > :24:15.coalition. The so-called vaunted 66 nation coalition that was created
:24:16. > :24:19.under the Obama administration... There was no coalition. But we want
:24:20. > :24:27.to help our Sunni allies, especially the Egyptians, the Jordanians, come
:24:28. > :24:33.together in a real partnership to take the fight to ISIS and groups
:24:34. > :24:38.like Al-Qaeda. But there is not a formal multilateral alliance with
:24:39. > :24:42.these countries. Which of the existing, formal multilateral
:24:43. > :24:47.alliances does Mr Trump wants to strengthen? If you are specifically
:24:48. > :24:51.talking about Nato, it is clear that we are committed to Nato but we wish
:24:52. > :24:55.to see a more equitable burden sharing among the nations that are
:24:56. > :24:59.simply not spending enough on their own defence so the gentleman 's
:25:00. > :25:03.agreement of 2% of GDP has to be stuck to, unlike the, I think it's
:25:04. > :25:08.only Six Nations that reach the standard today out of almost 30. So
:25:09. > :25:20.he does want to strengthen Nato then? Absolutely, he believes Nato
:25:21. > :25:25.is the most successful military alliances. You mustn't believe the
:25:26. > :25:30.spin and hype. EU leaders now see the Trump administration as a threat
:25:31. > :25:36.up there with Russia, China, terrorism. What's your response to
:25:37. > :25:42.that? I have to laugh. The idea that the nation that came to the
:25:43. > :25:49.salvation of Europe twice in the 20th century hummer in World War I
:25:50. > :26:00.and World War II, was central to the defeat of the totalitarian... It is
:26:01. > :26:04.not even worth commenting on. Would it matter to the Trump
:26:05. > :26:07.administration if the European Union broke up? The United States is very
:26:08. > :26:15.interested in the best relations possible with all the nations of the
:26:16. > :26:20.EU am a whether the European union wishes to stay together or not is up
:26:21. > :26:26.to the nations of the European Union. I understand that but I was
:26:27. > :26:30.wondering what the US view would be. Until Mr Trump, EU foreign policy
:26:31. > :26:35.was quite consistent in wanting to see the EU survive, prosper and even
:26:36. > :26:38.become more integrated. Now that doesn't seem to be the case, so
:26:39. > :26:44.would it matter to the Trump administration if the EU broke up? I
:26:45. > :26:47.will say yet again, it is in the interests of the United States to
:26:48. > :26:51.have the best relations possible with our European allies, and
:26:52. > :26:55.whether that is in the formation of the EU or if the EU by itself
:26:56. > :27:00.suffers some kind of internal issues, that's up to the European
:27:01. > :27:05.nations and not something we will comment on. Listening to that
:27:06. > :27:09.answer, it would seem as if this particular president's preference is
:27:10. > :27:15.to deal with individual nation states rather than multilateral
:27:16. > :27:22.institutions. Is that fair? I don't think so. There's never been an
:27:23. > :27:26.unequivocal statement by that effect by the statement. Does he share the
:27:27. > :27:31.opinion of Stephen Bannon that the 21st century should see a return to
:27:32. > :27:37.nation states rather than growing existing multilateral ways? I think
:27:38. > :27:40.it is fair to say that we have problems with political elites that
:27:41. > :27:45.don't take the interests of the populations they represent into
:27:46. > :27:51.account. That's why Brexit happened. I think that's why Mr Trump became
:27:52. > :27:55.President Trump. This is the connected phenomena. You are
:27:56. > :27:59.obsessing about institutions, it is not about institutions, it's about
:28:00. > :28:04.the health of democracy and whether political elites do what is in the
:28:05. > :28:06.interests of the people they represent. Given the
:28:07. > :28:09.unpredictability of the new president, you never really know
:28:10. > :28:14.what he's going to do next, would it be wise for the British Prime
:28:15. > :28:22.Minister to hitch her wagon to his star? This is really churlish
:28:23. > :28:25.questioning. Come on, you don't know what he's going to do next, listen
:28:26. > :28:31.to what he says because he does what he's going to say. I know this may
:28:32. > :28:34.be shocking to some reporters, but look at his campaign promises, and
:28:35. > :28:41.the fact that in the last 15 days we have executed every single one that
:28:42. > :28:45.we could in the time permissible so there is nothing unpredictable about
:28:46. > :28:51.Donald Trump as president. OK then, if we do know what he's going to do
:28:52. > :28:56.next, what is he going to do next? Continue to make good on his
:28:57. > :29:02.election promises, to make America great again, to make the economy are
:29:03. > :29:07.flourishing economy, and most important of all from your
:29:08. > :29:11.perspective in the UK, to be the best friend possible to our friends
:29:12. > :29:17.and the worst enemy to our enemies. It is an old Marine Corps phrase and
:29:18. > :29:24.we tend to live by it. Thank you for your time, we will leave it there.
:29:25. > :29:31.Doctor Gorka, making it clear this administration won't spend political
:29:32. > :29:33.capital on trying to keep the European Union together, a watershed
:29:34. > :29:35.change in American foreign policy. Theresa May has made a big deal out
:29:36. > :29:38.of her commitment to help people on middle incomes who are "just
:29:39. > :29:41.about managing", and early this week we should get a good sense
:29:42. > :29:44.of what that means in practice - when plans to bring down the cost
:29:45. > :29:47.of housing and protect renters are published in the Government's
:29:48. > :29:49.new white paper. The paper is expected to introduce
:29:50. > :29:52.new rules on building Communities Secretary Sajid Javid
:29:53. > :29:57.has previously said politicians should not stand in the way
:29:58. > :30:00.of development, provided all options Also rumoured are new measures
:30:01. > :30:05.to speed up building the 1 million new homes the Government promised
:30:06. > :30:07.to build by 2020, including imposing five-year quotas
:30:08. > :30:11.on reluctant councils. Reports suggest there will be
:30:12. > :30:13.relaxation of building height restrictions,
:30:14. > :30:15.allowing home owners and developers to build to the height
:30:16. > :30:17.of the tallest building on the block without needing to seek
:30:18. > :30:23.planning permission. Other elements trialled include
:30:24. > :30:27.new measures to stop developers sitting on parcels of land
:30:28. > :30:29.without building homes, land banking, and moving railway
:30:30. > :30:31.station car parks Underground, The Government today said it
:30:32. > :30:40.will amend planning rules so more homes can be built specifically
:30:41. > :30:43.to be rented out through longer term tenancies, to provide more stability
:30:44. > :30:45.for young families, alongside its proposed ban
:30:46. > :30:52.on letting agent fees. And the Housing Minister,
:30:53. > :31:02.Gavin Barwell, joins me now. Welcome to the programme. Home
:31:03. > :31:05.ownership is now beyond the reach of most young people. You are now
:31:06. > :31:10.emphasising affordable homes for rent. Why have you given up on the
:31:11. > :31:13.Tory dream of a property owning democracy? We haven't given up on
:31:14. > :31:18.that. The decline on home ownership in this country started in 2004. So
:31:19. > :31:21.far we have stopped that decline, we haven't reversed it but we
:31:22. > :31:27.absolutely want to make sure that people who want to own and can do
:31:28. > :31:29.so. The Prime Minister was very clear a country that works for
:31:30. > :31:33.everyone. That means we have to have say something to say to those who
:31:34. > :31:38.want to rent as well as on. Home ownership of young people is 35%,
:31:39. > :31:42.used to be 60%. Are you telling me during the lifetime of this
:31:43. > :31:47.government that is going to rise? We want to reverse the decline. We have
:31:48. > :31:51.stabilised it. The decline started in 2004 under Labour. They weren't
:31:52. > :31:56.bothered about it. We have taken action and that has stop the
:31:57. > :32:00.decline... What about the rise? We have to make sure people work hard
:32:01. > :32:04.the right thing have the chance to own their home on home. We have
:32:05. > :32:08.helped people through help to buy, shared ownership, that is part of
:32:09. > :32:12.it, but we have to have something to say to those who want to rent. You
:32:13. > :32:18.say you want more rented homes so why did you introduce a 3%
:32:19. > :32:22.additional stamp duty levied to pay those investing in build to rent
:32:23. > :32:26.properties? That was basically to try and stop a lot of the
:32:27. > :32:29.speculation in the buy to let market. The Bank of England raised
:32:30. > :32:34.concerns about that. When you see the white paper, you will see there
:32:35. > :32:41.is a package of measures for Bill to rent, trying to get institutional
:32:42. > :32:44.investment for that, different to people going and buying a home on
:32:45. > :32:49.the private market and renting out. You are trying to get institutional
:32:50. > :32:52.money to comment, just as this government and subsequent ones
:32:53. > :32:55.before said it would get pension fund money to invest in
:32:56. > :33:00.infrastructure and it never happened. Why should this happen? Is
:33:01. > :33:02.already starting to happen. If you go around the country you can see
:33:03. > :33:07.some of these builder rent scheme is happening. There are changes in the
:33:08. > :33:18.White Paper... How much money from institutions is going into bill to
:33:19. > :33:20.rent modular hundreds of millions. I was at the stock exchange the other
:33:21. > :33:23.day celebrating the launch of one of our bombs designed to get this money
:33:24. > :33:26.on. There are schemes being... There is huge potential to expand it. We
:33:27. > :33:29.need more homes and we are too dependent on a small number of large
:33:30. > :33:36.developers. -- to launch one of our bonds. You talk about affordable
:33:37. > :33:42.renting, what is affordable? Defined as something that is at least 20%
:33:43. > :33:46.below the market price. It will vary around the country. Let me put it
:33:47. > :33:50.another way. The average couple renting now have to spend 50% of
:33:51. > :33:54.their income on rent. Is that affordable? That is exactly what
:33:55. > :33:57.we're trying to do something about. Whether you're trying to buy or
:33:58. > :34:01.rent, housing in this country has become less and less affordable
:34:02. > :34:04.because the 30-40 years governments haven't built in times. This white
:34:05. > :34:09.Paper is trying to do something about that. You have been in power
:34:10. > :34:17.six, almost seven years. That's right. Why are ownership of new
:34:18. > :34:20.homes to 24 year low? It was a low figure because it's a new five-year
:34:21. > :34:25.programme. That is not a great excuse. It's not an excuse at all.
:34:26. > :34:27.The way these things work, you have a five-year programme and in the
:34:28. > :34:31.last year you have a record number of delivery and when you start a new
:34:32. > :34:35.programme, a lower level. If you look at the average over six years,
:34:36. > :34:41.this government has built more affordable housing than the previous
:34:42. > :34:47.one. Stiletto 24 year loss, that is an embarrassment. Yes. We have the
:34:48. > :34:50.figures, last year was 32,000, the year before 60 6000. You get this
:34:51. > :34:56.cliff edge effect. It is embarrassing and we want to stop it
:34:57. > :35:00.happening in the future. You want to give tenants more secure and longer
:35:01. > :35:06.leases which rent rises are predictable in advance. Ed Miliband
:35:07. > :35:10.promoted three-year tenancies in the 2015 general election campaign and
:35:11. > :35:15.George Osborne said it was totally economically illiterate. What's
:35:16. > :35:20.changed? You are merging control of the rents people in charge, which
:35:21. > :35:24.we're not imposing. We want longer term tenancies. Most people have
:35:25. > :35:29.six-month tenancies... Within that there would be a control on how much
:35:30. > :35:33.the rent could go up? Right? It would be set for the period of the
:35:34. > :35:37.tenancies. That's what I just said, that's what Ed Miliband proposed. Ed
:35:38. > :35:42.Miliband proposed regulating it for the whole sector. One of the reasons
:35:43. > :35:47.institutional investment is so attractive, if you had a spare home
:35:48. > :35:51.and you want to rent out, you might need it any year, so you give it a
:35:52. > :35:56.short tenancy. If you have a block, they are interested in a long-term
:35:57. > :36:03.return and give families more security. You have set a target,
:36:04. > :36:06.your government, to build in the life of this parliament 1 million
:36:07. > :36:14.new homes in England by 2020. You're not going to make that? I think we
:36:15. > :36:17.are. If you look at 2015-16 we had 190,000 additional homes of this
:36:18. > :36:25.country. Just below the level we need to achieve. Over five...
:36:26. > :36:31.2015-16. You were probably looking at the new homes built. Talking
:36:32. > :36:34.about completions in England. That is not the best measure, with
:36:35. > :36:40.respect. You said you will complete 1 million homes by 2020 so what is
:36:41. > :36:44.wrong with it? We use a national statistic which looks at new homes
:36:45. > :36:46.built and conversions and changes of use minus demolitions. The total
:36:47. > :36:53.change of the housing stock over that year. On that basis I have the
:36:54. > :36:57.figures here. I have the figures. You looking I just completed. 1
:36:58. > :37:02.million new homes, the average rate of those built in the last three
:37:03. > :37:07.quarters was 30 6000. You have 14 more quarters to get to the 1
:37:08. > :37:11.million. You have to raise that to 50 6000. I put it to you, you won't
:37:12. > :37:16.do it. You're not looking at the full picture of new housing in this
:37:17. > :37:20.country. You're looking at brand-new homes and not including conversions
:37:21. > :37:25.or changes of use are not taking off, which we should, demolitions.
:37:26. > :37:31.If you look at the National statistic net additions, in 2015-16,
:37:32. > :37:35.100 and 90,000 new homes. We are behind schedule. -- 190,000. I am
:37:36. > :37:40.confident with the measures in the White Paper we can achieve that. It
:37:41. > :37:44.is not just about the national total, we need to build these homes
:37:45. > :37:50.are the right places. Will the green belt remain sacrosanct after the
:37:51. > :37:53.white paper? Not proposing to change the existing protections that there
:37:54. > :37:58.for green belts. What planning policy says is councils can remove
:37:59. > :38:00.land from green belts but only in exceptional circumstances and should
:38:01. > :38:07.look at at all the circumstances before doing that. No change? No. We
:38:08. > :38:13.have a manifesto commitment. You still think you will get 1 million
:38:14. > :38:17.homes? The green belt is only 15%. This idea we can only fix our broken
:38:18. > :38:20.housing market by taking huge swathes of land out of the green
:38:21. > :38:23.belt is not true. We will leave it there, thank you for joining us,
:38:24. > :38:25.Gavin Barwell. It is coming up to 11.40.
:38:26. > :38:28.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:38:29. > :38:37.Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead...
:38:38. > :38:39.Hello, welcome to Sunday politics East.
:38:40. > :38:46.Later in the programme, are councils struggling to keep up
:38:47. > :38:49.with the soaring number of people sleeping on the streets?
:38:50. > :38:50.Prevention work is important, but we are effective
:38:51. > :38:57.Perhaps we're a little bit overpowered by the numbers.
:38:58. > :38:59.Joining us this week are Alistair Burt, a former
:39:00. > :39:02.minister and Conservative MP for North East Bedfordshire,
:39:03. > :39:07.and Labour's Kelvin Hopkins, veteran Brexiteer and MP.
:39:08. > :39:10.And of course this week has seen the historic vote
:39:11. > :39:14.which will enable us to leave the EU.
:39:15. > :39:17.That has been a source of great joy to people like Kelvin Hopkins,
:39:18. > :39:20.who has campaigned to leave the EU all his life.
:39:21. > :39:22.Not so for remainers like Alistair Burt.
:39:23. > :39:25.We'll hear from both of them in a moment.
:39:26. > :39:33.Tonight, there will be a historic vote in this place.
:39:34. > :39:37.A vote that I never thought I would see in my political lifetime.
:39:38. > :39:40.This will be the most significant decision that Parliament has taken
:39:41. > :39:43.probably during my time as a Member of Parliament.
:39:44. > :39:46.In the referendum we all stood up and we spoke passionately
:39:47. > :39:49.for our respective sides, but now is the time for us to do
:39:50. > :39:51.the other courageous thing and listen to the will
:39:52. > :40:02.I don't feel comfortable about voting to block Article 50
:40:03. > :40:04.proceeding because I think that would conflict with the outcome
:40:05. > :40:10.We voted to have the referendum and I think we have
:40:11. > :40:21.The discipline that Brexit imposes upon us is to listen very carefully
:40:22. > :40:24.to people in Britain who clearly feel they have not been listened
:40:25. > :40:33.I think if we're honest, we need to say that it will be
:40:34. > :40:37.difficult for the European Union to reach a deal.
:40:38. > :40:40.They are a complex organisation with multiple levels of interest
:40:41. > :40:43.and many other issues that affect their agenda even though
:40:44. > :40:48.we here would like to see our point at the top of their agenda.
:40:49. > :40:52.The degree of detail to be covered is staggering,
:40:53. > :40:54.both for us and our partners and new consequences
:40:55. > :40:59.It is way more complicated than some of our colleagues
:41:00. > :41:04.Three quarters of people in Cambridge voted to remain.
:41:05. > :41:06.I came into Parliament to represent their views and they've
:41:07. > :41:10.put their trust in me and I will not betray that.
:41:11. > :41:14.I enjoy being on the Shadow Cabinet, but this is a bigger issue than that
:41:15. > :41:17.and I'm prepared to walk if that's what I have to do.
:41:18. > :41:22.But I have to represent what my heart tells me
:41:23. > :41:25.and what my conscience tells me, and also what my constituents think.
:41:26. > :41:28.If it comes to it, that's what I'll do.
:41:29. > :41:30.Kelvin Hopkins, should Jeremy Corbyn sack Clive Lewis
:41:31. > :41:39.It's for Jeremy to make, but I wouldn't do it personally.
:41:40. > :41:43.I remember back in 1975 Harold Wilson and some
:41:44. > :41:46.of the minority of the Labour Party then wanted to stay in the common
:41:47. > :41:51.market and they allowed people to vote both ways.
:41:52. > :41:56.The great majority of the Labour Members
:41:57. > :41:58.of Parliament voted to leave, but Harold Wilson and a few
:41:59. > :42:05.I don't want to see Clive resign, personally.
:42:06. > :42:08.I think you have to accept that we're going to leave
:42:09. > :42:11.the European Union now and we've got to get on and try to build
:42:12. > :42:13.democratic socialism, which is what I'm about.
:42:14. > :42:17.Alistair Burt, do you have any sympathy for Clive Lewis?
:42:18. > :42:20.You had to vote for something this week that you don't believe
:42:21. > :42:25.in at all and that you think would be detrimental.
:42:26. > :42:28.I've voted for something I did believe in, which is the democratic
:42:29. > :42:34.But as I said in my speech, I'm reconciled to the concept
:42:35. > :42:36.of Brexit, I'm not convinced about the wisdom of it.
:42:37. > :42:38.So yes, sometimes you have to do things because...
:42:39. > :42:42.It's difficult for you, a lot of soul-searching went on this week.
:42:43. > :42:49.We're going to do it and we're going to do it
:42:50. > :42:52.as well as we possibly can, but I've not changed my mind
:42:53. > :42:56.on whether or not I think we should have stayed in the EU.
:42:57. > :43:09.I do entirely sympathise with colleagues who on this issue,
:43:10. > :43:14.which has governed us for 30 to 40 years in British politics.
:43:15. > :43:17.I've had colleagues tossing and turning, it's very difficult,
:43:18. > :43:19.I sympathise with all colleagues who had difficult decisions to make.
:43:20. > :43:21.Did you stay in the house to hear the result?
:43:22. > :43:26.I went through the lobby, I knew what the result was going to be.
:43:27. > :43:29.I've had the cheers of some of my colleagues ringing in my ears
:43:30. > :43:31.for some time and there were some colleagues I didn't
:43:32. > :43:34.particularly want to sit near to during that period.
:43:35. > :43:36.Kelvin Hopkins, this may not be hard for you,
:43:37. > :43:44.When we voted to stay in the common market in 1975,
:43:45. > :43:47.which I remember well, there was a large number of Labour
:43:48. > :43:50.A minority, but still a large number.
:43:51. > :43:53.You've always had different views on these things.
:43:54. > :43:55.I want to persuade my colleagues that the EU is essentially
:43:56. > :43:57.anti-democratic and anti-socialist, which I've said all the time.
:43:58. > :44:02.I've not heard a convincing argument to the counter of that.
:44:03. > :44:07.Our objective is to make a better working life for people and I think
:44:08. > :44:11.The great thing about all this is that Kelvin is a dedicated
:44:12. > :44:13.socialist who believes the EU has been a capitalist construct.
:44:14. > :44:15.My colleagues, like Iain Duncan Smith and John Redwood,
:44:16. > :44:21.However, the debate is done, the arguments are had.
:44:22. > :44:24.I've not been able to convince people so now we've got to create
:44:25. > :44:27.a new and better relationship with Europe with us outside.
:44:28. > :44:29.I think we're both dedicated to this.
:44:30. > :44:33.In the first place, I think the period of negotiation will be
:44:34. > :44:36.When you think about it, 27 different nations,
:44:37. > :44:38.the European Parliament, the Commission, have all got
:44:39. > :44:41.to agree at the end of the process to the negotiation deal
:44:42. > :44:48.It's not all about us, it's all about them.
:44:49. > :44:51.To imagine we'll get people into that place easily seems to me
:44:52. > :44:54.We're going to have to work on this very hard.
:44:55. > :44:57.I still believe getting a deal is better than walking
:44:58. > :44:59.away and a WTO solution, but I'm concerned that I think
:45:00. > :45:03.I have some colleagues that believe it's better to do that rather
:45:04. > :45:04.than get negotiation and a new relationship.
:45:05. > :45:06.It's going to be difficult, it's going to be complicated,
:45:07. > :45:15.But I think the idea that the European Union
:45:16. > :45:17.could actually overturn the decision made by the British
:45:18. > :45:22.If at the end of the day the European Union tries to be
:45:23. > :45:25.difficult, we'll just have to say we're going anyway.
:45:26. > :45:27.Interestingly, I think they've got a great deal of interest in securing
:45:28. > :45:30.a good relationship with us because we have a gigantic
:45:31. > :45:34.We buy much more from them than they buy from us.
:45:35. > :45:36.The cohesion of Europe, keeping Europe together,
:45:37. > :45:38.governs their thinking more than any individual trade deal.
:45:39. > :45:41.They don't want people to peel off and do the same.
:45:42. > :45:45.Keeping the European Union together is absolutely fundamental to that.
:45:46. > :45:47.I don't think we've fully grasped that.
:45:48. > :45:54.Let's move on to the growing problem of homelessness.
:45:55. > :45:58.According to the latest figures, the number of people sleeping rough
:45:59. > :46:00.rough in this region has more than doubled.
:46:01. > :46:02.Luton, King's Lynn, Norwich and Cambridge have seen some
:46:03. > :46:06.Numbers here have been climbing since 2010 when there were 212
:46:07. > :46:13.There was then a steep rise to 460 in 2015.
:46:14. > :46:18.And it was up again last year as well, with 650 rough sleepers.
:46:19. > :46:21.Sleeping on the street is only part of the picture.
:46:22. > :46:24.The numbers in temporary accommodation have also soared.
:46:25. > :46:28.We have two reports on homelessness now.
:46:29. > :46:31.Sam Read looks at the problems in Northampton, but first, Sean Peel
:46:32. > :46:47.It's barely daylight, this city is still in slumberland,
:46:48. > :46:49.but outreach workers Kendal and Tim are walking the streets,
:46:50. > :46:54.We go out at 6am to see who's out and about,
:46:55. > :46:56.what rough sleepers are out, engage with them, make sure
:46:57. > :46:59.they are OK, see if there are any new faces that we need to engage
:47:00. > :47:06.with and let them know how we can help.
:47:07. > :47:14.Cuts to services, mental health services being one, is a factor.
:47:15. > :47:21.People being evicted because of Universal Credit being introduced.
:47:22. > :47:23.One of the main reasons people sleep rough is
:47:24. > :47:32.Some rough sleepers might get a place at homeless
:47:33. > :47:37.It's nearly always full so next week they are opening some new rooms.
:47:38. > :47:39.We had seen an increase in rough sleepers over
:47:40. > :47:41.the last couple of years, it is steadily growing.
:47:42. > :47:44.We put this plan together and we couldn't get to it fast
:47:45. > :47:46.enough because the numbers have gone up since then.
:47:47. > :47:49.We know that nationally there is a 16% rise in rough
:47:50. > :47:52.sleeping across the country so we're not alone.
:47:53. > :47:55.The number of people sleeping rough in our region has rocketed
:47:56. > :47:58.in the last year alone, double in some cases.
:47:59. > :48:00.In Bedfordshire, in Luton, it was 76.
:48:01. > :48:05.Cambridge had 40 and according to the last count,
:48:06. > :48:12.In Bedford, where the numbers of rough sleepers is in the top ten
:48:13. > :48:14.nationally, TV presenter Max McMurdo, who is from the town,
:48:15. > :48:20.He's taken his parents's old caravan and turned it into a soup kitchen
:48:21. > :48:23.with the help of his chef friend Luke and a homeless
:48:24. > :48:30.Bring this to the boil, keep it nice and hot and we'll
:48:31. > :48:34.We all experience it, we walk down the street and see
:48:35. > :48:37.someone sitting there, but we don't really know what to do.
:48:38. > :48:41.Do you give them money, do you give them hand-outs?
:48:42. > :48:44.People often just walk away rather than doing anything.
:48:45. > :48:48.I don't have loads of money, I don't own a charity,
:48:49. > :48:54.but I thought, let's turn it into a portable soup kitchen.
:48:55. > :48:56.This week was Soupervan's maiden voyage as night falls
:48:57. > :48:58.and the temperature drops, people are already waiting.
:48:59. > :49:00.People like David, who's been sleeping rough
:49:01. > :49:06.You get people coming out of the pubs that are drunk and kick
:49:07. > :49:14.If it weren't for them, half of us would be dead
:49:15. > :49:17.because they come out and feed us every day of the week.
:49:18. > :49:20.A couple of guys have got on board and had bowls of soup.
:49:21. > :49:23.I'm sure that over time it will be a slow burner,
:49:24. > :49:26.but we've got about 20 people here tonight and knowing
:49:27. > :49:28.there are about 60 rough sleepers, that's a third already.
:49:29. > :49:31.Hopefully word will spread and we will get increased numbers
:49:32. > :49:35.A Northampton day centre, offering a warm meal for people
:49:36. > :49:38.who know all too well what it's like not to have a home.
:49:39. > :49:54.I think you still need to make the best out of the worst situation.
:49:55. > :49:59.Local authorities are being asked to do more.
:50:00. > :50:02.Northampton Borough Council this week opened a new night shelter
:50:03. > :50:10.But the Homelessness Reduction Bill, going through Parliament now,
:50:11. > :50:12.would ask local authorities to do more prevention work,
:50:13. > :50:13.with single people, and not just families.
:50:14. > :50:16.The government has announced ?48 million to help local authorities
:50:17. > :50:20.meet the new requirements for support under the new bill.
:50:21. > :50:23.But some are questioning whether that's enough.
:50:24. > :50:30.We do as much prevention work as we can and the money will come
:50:31. > :50:33.in handy because maybe we'll be able to engage more staff
:50:34. > :50:37.But yes, prevention work is important, but we are effective
:50:38. > :50:43.Perhaps we're little bit overpowered by the numbers.
:50:44. > :50:50.Back in the day centre, people can take a break.
:50:51. > :50:52.But staff here know homelessness is rising
:50:53. > :50:56.It's to do with policy, it's to do with housing crisis,
:50:57. > :50:59.it's to do with stagnation of wages and it's to do with
:51:00. > :51:03.Sometimes they think I can kick this person out
:51:04. > :51:08.But landlords say margins are small and the upcoming removal of some tax
:51:09. > :51:12.relief for landlords will put on more pressure.
:51:13. > :51:16.It just so happens it's houses, but everybody else has to have
:51:17. > :51:19.some sort of capital, whether it's the shop
:51:20. > :51:22.that they are paying rent on, staff that are paid to make cups
:51:23. > :51:27.Many people don't see it, we just do it slightly differently.
:51:28. > :51:29.Ours is mainly capital because we are buying a house.
:51:30. > :51:32.But we still have to do all the repairs.
:51:33. > :51:36.This problem has been growing for several years.
:51:37. > :51:40.It has huge social costs, personal costs, but also financial
:51:41. > :51:45.costs when you consider that the impact of preventing
:51:46. > :51:48.homelessness for 40,000 people will be a ?370 million
:51:49. > :51:54.Stephen Woods knows all about the personal cost.
:51:55. > :51:58.The so-called bedroom tax, or spare room subsidy,
:51:59. > :52:00.and other benefit changes meant he faced eviction twice from his
:52:01. > :52:09.The Northampton Community Law Service helped keep him in his home.
:52:10. > :52:16.If I don't live here, I'm not going to get
:52:17. > :52:21.anywhere else to live, I'll be living on the streets.
:52:22. > :52:28.For me, I don't think I'd survive very long out there.
:52:29. > :52:31.No one would object to everyone having their own place
:52:32. > :52:35.The question is whether this new bill will help get us any
:52:36. > :52:40.I'm joined now by Cambridge's councillor for housing, Kevin Price.
:52:41. > :52:43.Cambridge has seen one of the highest increases.
:52:44. > :52:48.Why are you failing to keep pace with the problem?
:52:49. > :52:51.I don't see it that we are failing to keep pace with the problem.
:52:52. > :52:55.As you've seen, this is a national problem.
:52:56. > :52:57.The increase in homelessness is not just confined
:52:58. > :53:02.But other places are doing better than you with the problem.
:53:03. > :53:08.We already spend a lot of money on homelessness prevention
:53:09. > :53:10.and our single homelessness service has prevented some 350
:53:11. > :53:22.In 2010, there were something like 144 homeless applications
:53:23. > :53:34.It's not a question of us not keeping pace, it is a question
:53:35. > :53:37.of so many national changes taking effect in a place where the cost
:53:38. > :53:42.of living, like Cambridge, which is very, very high.
:53:43. > :53:45.We heard the councillor in that report describe feeling
:53:46. > :53:57.Is this a problem that's difficult to cope with?
:53:58. > :53:59.I wouldn't say I'm overwhelmed by it, we're disappointed
:54:00. > :54:07.But we are aware that more and more people now are losing private rented
:54:08. > :54:14.sector tenancies and as such have nowhere else to turn.
:54:15. > :54:15.Councils like ours, we are a stockholding
:54:16. > :54:20.authority, we just don't have the numbers of homes.
:54:21. > :54:28.We heard the representative from Crisis make that case.
:54:29. > :54:33.By preventing this, it's a very financially good decision.
:54:34. > :54:46.We put as much money as we've got that we can put in.
:54:47. > :54:48.I hear that the Homelessness Prevention Bill will provide some
:54:49. > :54:51.more money and of course all extra income will be welcome.
:54:52. > :54:55.I'm not sure the amount they are talking about will do.
:54:56. > :54:59.Not enough money coming from central government, that's
:55:00. > :55:06.There's something like a ?500 million programme on homelessness
:55:07. > :55:10.The government reckons it saved maybe a million people
:55:11. > :55:17.There's been an increase from the time that your report
:55:18. > :55:19.was compiled, it's now ?61 million that the government
:55:20. > :55:24.It's a bill that's been compiled with all-party support
:55:25. > :55:26.and with the charities involved as well.
:55:27. > :55:31.?61 million shared between all the councils everywhere.
:55:32. > :55:38.That is new money going on top of what councils already are doing.
:55:39. > :55:44.This bill was put together as a private member's motion,
:55:45. > :55:47.it gathered the support of a number of charities, including
:55:48. > :55:49.some of those you've had on the programme,
:55:50. > :55:51.to try and help find an answer to doing something earlier.
:55:52. > :55:54.People feel it's a very positive move to try to deal
:55:55. > :55:58.Bedford has got one of the highest numbers of rough sleepers.
:55:59. > :56:00.Something is going very wrong on your doorstep.
:56:01. > :56:04.Homelessness is complex and rough sleeping is complex.
:56:05. > :56:07.It is caused by a whole series of factors, including some that
:56:08. > :56:11.They've often been through some difficult times, a crisis,
:56:12. > :56:13.sometimes they've been in institutions, sometimes
:56:14. > :56:22.The link with mental health is also incredibly important.
:56:23. > :56:25.And the fact it's predominantly male is also something that needs
:56:26. > :56:30.Kelvin Hopkins, we're talking about numbers in different places.
:56:31. > :56:34.Do you know what the official count of rough sleepers is in Luton?
:56:35. > :56:37.I forget now, but it's 79 or something like that.
:56:38. > :56:43.I think rough sleeping is only the tip of an iceberg.
:56:44. > :56:50.In Luton, we have 12,000 people on the waiting list.
:56:51. > :56:52.When I was a councillor in the 1970s, we built
:56:53. > :56:54.thousands of houses, we bought hundreds more
:56:55. > :56:57.houses, and we housed the complete waiting list.
:56:58. > :57:00.Not enough social housing, that's what it's all about?
:57:01. > :57:03.I think as people know the government is very
:57:04. > :57:09.There's a housing white paper coming out very soon.
:57:10. > :57:12.Everybody around our region has seen a lot of housing being built,
:57:13. > :57:15.Social housing was a problem for the last Labour government
:57:16. > :57:20.More money is being put in, more affordable homes need to be there,
:57:21. > :57:24.but it is a significant issue and everyone is aware of that.
:57:25. > :57:31.Together with the changes in the nature in the way people
:57:32. > :57:33.live, more people live single, more families are separated,
:57:34. > :57:35.competing pressures all round, it's a big issue and councils
:57:36. > :57:37.and government are doing the very best they can.
:57:38. > :57:40.Kevin Price, you must walk through the streets of Cambridge
:57:41. > :57:43.on a daily basis and you see these people that are vulnerable,
:57:44. > :57:46.Can you do anything to promise them that things will
:57:47. > :57:54.What we've recently set up in Cambridge is a charity called
:57:55. > :58:00.We are encouraging local people to donate money that they might
:58:01. > :58:05.otherwise give to people on the street.
:58:06. > :58:07.By all means, if somebody is hungry or thirsty,
:58:08. > :58:10.help them with that, but we feel that by directing money
:58:11. > :58:12.through this charity, homeless people can then apply
:58:13. > :58:32.More from both of you in just a moment.
:58:33. > :58:34.It's time now for our 60-second round up of the week.
:58:35. > :58:42.Demonstrations were held around the region to protest
:58:43. > :58:46.against President Trump and his new immigration policy.
:58:47. > :58:48.If you just lie down and pretend it's not happening,
:58:49. > :58:51.there's nothing to stop it growing and being extended both
:58:52. > :58:57.The Police and Crime Commissioners for Norfolk, Suffolk
:58:58. > :58:59.and Northamptonshire want to increase their share
:59:00. > :59:01.of council tax by 2% because the demands
:59:02. > :59:07.Modern crime is quite complex, whether it's cyber crime,
:59:08. > :59:20.We need to make sure we resource all of those accordingly.
:59:21. > :59:22.The Colchester MP's appealed for the mainline to London
:59:23. > :59:24.to be the first to get new digital signalling.
:59:25. > :59:27.The MP for Waveney wants all fuel receipts to tell us how
:59:28. > :59:35.Surely it is right that the nation's 37 million drivers should see
:59:36. > :59:37.the magnitude of the tax that they pay every time
:59:38. > :59:41.The little baby is welcome to come in.
:59:42. > :59:43.Norwich MP Chloe Smith brings her four-month-old son
:59:44. > :59:53.to Parliament to help her vote for Article 50.
:59:54. > :00:02.Let me just ask you about the idea of fuel receipts showing how much
:00:03. > :00:09.tax we are paying. Kelvin Hopkins, good idea? I like Peter very much
:00:10. > :00:14.but this isn't sensible. We have to pay tax on some things to get enough
:00:15. > :00:18.money to support the NHS, forces and everything else. If you show people
:00:19. > :00:24.how much tax they are paying, they will want to pay less. It's not
:00:25. > :00:32.sensible. Or they choose to get on their bikes! Motorists have long
:00:33. > :00:37.complained. When the price of petrol is discussed, nobody talks about
:00:38. > :00:42.tax. It helps people to know how much tax they are paying. People
:00:43. > :00:47.talk about hype of the cake to taxes, telling people how much of
:00:48. > :00:51.their tax bill goes to health or pensions. The more transparency the
:00:52. > :00:56.better, but I'm not sure I see this as a workable idea. We started with
:00:57. > :01:03.Article 50, there's going to be lots more discussion in Parliament. How
:01:04. > :01:07.messy is it going to get? Legislatively, I think it will be
:01:08. > :01:11.clear. The government will get Article 50 through. It will face a
:01:12. > :01:14.lot of pressure on amendments in the next few weeks from the lords and
:01:15. > :01:19.the Commons. The government has to be clear about its end result. I
:01:20. > :01:25.don't think it will be difficult. A lot of hot air and passion. We'll
:01:26. > :01:28.get very passionate. In the end it will be much more straightforward
:01:29. > :01:31.than people think. Thank you. That's all from us. You can keep
:01:32. > :01:34.programme at another time an airport expansion, but thank you to both of
:01:35. > :01:40.you for being here. Back to you, Andrew.
:01:41. > :01:43.Will the Government's plan to boost house-building
:01:44. > :01:47.Could a handful of Conservative MPs cause problems for
:01:48. > :01:51.And what is President Trump going to do next?
:01:52. > :02:09.You have been following the genesis of this housing white paper. What do
:02:10. > :02:14.you make of it? I think it will be quite spectacular, pretty radical
:02:15. > :02:18.stuff. We heard bits about beating up on developers. I understand it
:02:19. > :02:23.will be a whack, walk, covering every single problem with housing
:02:24. > :02:27.supply and trying to solve it. Which means bad news if you are a huge fan
:02:28. > :02:31.of the green belt, because they will go round that the other way by
:02:32. > :02:35.forcing large quotas on councils are making it down to councils where
:02:36. > :02:39.they build. If you fill up your brown space in towns they will have
:02:40. > :02:43.to trigger the exceptional circumstances bit of the bill to
:02:44. > :02:46.beat on green belts. Beating up developers, opening up the market
:02:47. > :02:52.for renters across the board. And Theresa May, one of the most
:02:53. > :02:58.defining thing she could do on the domestic agenda. I am not as excited
:02:59. > :03:05.as Tom about this. I look back to 2004, do you remember the Kate
:03:06. > :03:09.Barker report? Successive governments, successive prime
:03:10. > :03:14.ministers have been promising to address the housing shortage. In
:03:15. > :03:17.2004 Kate Barker recommended hundreds of thousands new homes.
:03:18. > :03:23.Gordon Brown talked about 3 million new homes by 2020 in 2007. It never
:03:24. > :03:26.happens. The reason is at the end of the day this is local politics,
:03:27. > :03:30.local councillors need to keep their seats and they won't keep their
:03:31. > :03:34.seats if there are hugely controversial developments locally
:03:35. > :03:38.that they support. Yes, the government can and are proposing to
:03:39. > :03:42.overrule councils that don't back local developments, but they may
:03:43. > :03:46.find themselves completely inundated with those cases. I think that is
:03:47. > :03:51.the whole point of it, to take on those NIMBY often Tory councils and
:03:52. > :03:59.force them to build. I can't think of a better defining issue for
:04:00. > :04:06.Theresa May than sticking one in the eye of some quite well off half Tory
:04:07. > :04:09.countryside councils. The government gives councils a quota of homes they
:04:10. > :04:13.have to fill, if they don't have to fill that all run out overland to
:04:14. > :04:17.fill the quota, the government then comes in and tells them they have to
:04:18. > :04:21.built on the green belt? How is that going to work? At the moment the
:04:22. > :04:24.green belt is absolutely sacrosanct in British politics. They'll have to
:04:25. > :04:31.do some work on educating people on what green belts means. Potato
:04:32. > :04:37.farms, golf courses... At the moment the idea people have of the green
:04:38. > :04:41.belt being verdant fields needs to be dismantled. You are right. I
:04:42. > :04:45.agree with Tom, 11 million people in the private rental sector in the UK.
:04:46. > :04:49.In the last election more voted Labour than conservative. This is an
:04:50. > :04:53.area where Theresa May would look to expand her vote. The problem has
:04:54. > :04:58.always been, the same problem we have with pension policy and why
:04:59. > :05:01.pensioners have done better than working families in recent years.
:05:02. > :05:09.They are older and they vote more and anything to the detriment of
:05:10. > :05:13.older people. I wonder how they will get private money to come in on
:05:14. > :05:19.anything like this go they would need to have a huge expansion? There
:05:20. > :05:23.is a huge amount of speculation and one of the thing that locks up the
:05:24. > :05:27.system as you have people buying land, taking out a stake of land in
:05:28. > :05:30.the hope that one point it may at some point free up. At the end of
:05:31. > :05:34.the day, unless you have councils far more willing to quickly fast
:05:35. > :05:38.track these applications, which they won't for the reason I said before,
:05:39. > :05:46.it's a very long-term investment. Ed Miliband proposed three-year leases
:05:47. > :05:50.in which the rent could only go up by an agreed formula, probably the
:05:51. > :05:55.three years to give the young families a certain stability over
:05:56. > :05:59.that period. He had a use it or lose it rules for planning development,
:06:00. > :06:03.if you don't use it you lose the planning rights. Somebody else gets
:06:04. > :06:08.it. The Tories disparaged that at the time. This is at the centre of
:06:09. > :06:12.their policy now. This is probably item number four of
:06:13. > :06:16.Ed Miliband's policy book Theresa May has wholesale pinched in the
:06:17. > :06:21.last six months or so. Why not? I think if you look at the change in
:06:22. > :06:26.mood across housing and planning over the last 5-6 years, it used to
:06:27. > :06:30.be an issue very much of green belt versus London planners. Now you have
:06:31. > :06:32.grandparents living in houses in the countryside, knowing their
:06:33. > :06:39.grandchildren can't get on the housing ladder any longer. Maybe a
:06:40. > :06:41.bit more intervention in the market, tougher on renting conditions, maybe
:06:42. > :06:48.that is exactly what the country needs. Will they meet the 1 million
:06:49. > :06:50.target? It would be a defiance of every political thing that has
:06:51. > :06:55.happened in the last ten years. I think Tom is right, if there is only
:06:56. > :06:58.one difference between Theresa May and David Cameron it's the
:06:59. > :07:04.willingness of the state to intervene. When Ed Miliband said
:07:05. > :07:09.that he was seen as communism, but Theresa May can get away with it.
:07:10. > :07:16.How serious is this talk of a couple of dozen Tories who were very loyal
:07:17. > :07:21.over voting for the principle of Article 50 but may now be tempted to
:07:22. > :07:26.vote for some amendments to Article 50 legislation that they would find
:07:27. > :07:30.quite attractive? I think that threat has certainly been taken
:07:31. > :07:36.seriously by levers. I spoke to the campaign group Leaves Means Leave
:07:37. > :07:39.last night. The figure they mentioned was up to 20 remaining
:07:40. > :07:42.Tories. That sounds a lot to me but that is what they are concerned
:07:43. > :07:48.about and those Tories would come together with Labour and the SNP to
:07:49. > :07:51.vote for that amendment. Although that amendment sounds rather nice
:07:52. > :07:56.and democratic, actually in the eyes of many levers that is a wrecking
:07:57. > :08:00.amendment. Because what you are doing is giving Parliament a sort of
:08:01. > :08:04.veto over whatever deal Theresa May brings back. What they want is the
:08:05. > :08:08.vote to be before that deal is finalised. It isn't necessarily the
:08:09. > :08:14.case that if Parliament decided they didn't like that deal we would just
:08:15. > :08:17.go to WTO, we would fall out of the European Union. There are mixed
:08:18. > :08:22.views as to whether we might remain in and things could be extended. My
:08:23. > :08:29.understanding is the people making the amendments, they won any deal
:08:30. > :08:34.that is done to be brought to Parliament in time, so that if
:08:35. > :08:38.Parliament fancies it it's done, but if it does and it doesn't just mean
:08:39. > :08:43.go to WTO rules. There will be time to go back, renegotiate or think
:08:44. > :08:49.again? The question is where it puts Britain's negotiating hand. Nine of
:08:50. > :08:54.the options... Once we trigger Article 50 the two negotiation
:08:55. > :08:57.begins on the power switches to Europe. They can run out the clock
:08:58. > :09:00.and it will be worse for us than them. I don't think either option is
:09:01. > :09:05.particularly appealing. I think what seems like a rather Serena week for
:09:06. > :09:10.Article 50 this week isn't going to be reflective of what will happen
:09:11. > :09:13.next. The way the government's position is at the moment, if at the
:09:14. > :09:18.end the only choice Parliament has is to vote for the deal or crash out
:09:19. > :09:21.on WTO rules, then even the remainder is going to vote for the
:09:22. > :09:25.deal even if they don't like it, because they would regard crashing
:09:26. > :09:32.out as the worst of all possible results. Possibly. It will be a
:09:33. > :09:35.great game of bluff if Theresa May fights off any of these amendments
:09:36. > :09:39.on Wednesday and gets a straightforward deal or no Deal
:09:40. > :09:43.vote. I have a funny feeling this amendment, if it's chosen, we must
:09:44. > :09:47.remember because we don't know if they will choose this amendment, if
:09:48. > :09:52.it does go to a vote on Wednesday it will be very tight indeed. Remember,
:09:53. > :09:57.one final thing Theresa May can do if she gets Parliament voting
:09:58. > :10:00.against, as Isabel would have it, she could try to get a new
:10:01. > :10:07.parliament and go for a general election. And probably get a huge
:10:08. > :10:14.majority to do so. The Lords, it goes there after the February
:10:15. > :10:22.recess. They are very pro-Europe, but does their instinct for
:10:23. > :10:27.self-preservation override that? I think that is it. A Tory Lord said
:10:28. > :10:30.this morning I will vote to block it on a conscience measure, but you
:10:31. > :10:35.have the likes of Bill Cash, veteran Eurosceptics, suddenly converted to
:10:36. > :10:39.the Lords reform saying is an outrage. I doubt they will vote for
:10:40. > :10:47.their own demise, to hasten their own demise by blocking it. What did
:10:48. > :10:51.you make of Doctor Gorka smart fascinating. Cut from the same cloth
:10:52. > :10:54.as his boss. I thought it was extraordinary listening to him,
:10:55. > :10:58.saying everything is going dutifully to plan. But at the end of the day,
:10:59. > :11:02.what they are doing is what people in America voted for Trump to do. If
:11:03. > :11:06.you look at Lord Ashcroft's polling on why America voted for Trump, they
:11:07. > :11:12.went into this with their eyes wide open. One of the top fears among
:11:13. > :11:16.American voters, particularly Republican leading ones was
:11:17. > :11:19.America's immigration policy is or could be letting in terror arrests.
:11:20. > :11:23.As far as he is concerned, he is doing what he was elected to do.
:11:24. > :11:27.This whole year is turning into a wonderful year long lecture series
:11:28. > :11:30.on how democracy works at a fundamental level. I'm not sure
:11:31. > :11:36.anyone wanted it but it's what we've got. This same in the way we've been
:11:37. > :11:41.talking about direct democracy and Parliamentary democracy. The same is
:11:42. > :11:44.happening in America between executive and judicial branches. We
:11:45. > :11:47.are seeing the limits of presidential power. Regardless of
:11:48. > :11:51.the fact that people voted for Trump they voted for senators. The judge
:11:52. > :11:58.who blocks this was appointed by George W Bush. So-called Judge
:11:59. > :12:01.Eckert Mac so-called George W Bush! It's fascinating we're having all
:12:02. > :12:06.these conversations now that I never bought five years ago we would be
:12:07. > :12:11.having at such a fundamental level. Has the media yet worked out how to
:12:12. > :12:15.cover the Trump administration or has he got us behaving like headless
:12:16. > :12:19.chickens? He says something incendiary and we all run over to do
:12:20. > :12:24.that and when you pick it off it turns out not to be as incendiary as
:12:25. > :12:28.we thought? And then back doing something and we all rush over
:12:29. > :12:35.there. Is he making fools of us? Is exactly what he did in the election
:12:36. > :12:38.campaign. So many quick and fast outrageous comments frontrunner on a
:12:39. > :12:42.daily basis, no one single one of them had full news cycle time to be
:12:43. > :12:45.pored over and examined. I think there is a problem with this.
:12:46. > :12:50.Although he keeps the upper hand, keeps the agenda and keeps on the
:12:51. > :12:54.populist ground, the problem is it easy to campaign like that. If you
:12:55. > :12:57.are governing in a state of semi-hysteria, I wonder how long the
:12:58. > :13:00.American public will be comfortable with that. They don't really want
:13:01. > :13:05.their government to be swirling chaos all the time, as fascinating
:13:06. > :13:12.as it might be on TV. They will be exhausted by it, I already am. I
:13:13. > :13:14.have been interviewing White House administration official since 1976
:13:15. > :13:18.and that is the first time someone hasn't given me a straight answer on
:13:19. > :13:20.America supporting the EU. That is a different world.
:13:21. > :13:24.Jo Coburn will be on BBC Two tomorrow at midday with
:13:25. > :13:26.the Daily Politics - and I'll be back here
:13:27. > :14:05.Remember, if it's Sunday - it's the Sunday Politics.
:14:06. > :14:18.TV: He's not your father. WOMAN GASPS
:14:19. > :14:31.so why not pay your TV licence in weekly instalments, too?