:00:36. > :00:40.It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:41. > :00:43.The Chancellor says that to embark on a spending spree
:00:44. > :00:46.in Wednesday's Budget would be "reckless".
:00:47. > :00:49.But will there be more money for social care and to ease
:00:50. > :00:54.The UK terror threat is currently severe,
:00:55. > :00:57.but where is that threat coming from?
:00:58. > :01:00.We have the detailed picture from a vast new study of every
:01:01. > :01:04.Islamist related terrorist offence committed over the last two decades.
:01:05. > :01:10.What can we learn from these offences to thwart future attacks?
:01:11. > :01:12.The government was defeated in the Lords on its
:01:13. > :01:21.We'll ask the Leader of the House of Commons what he'll do if peers
:01:22. > :01:24.Here in the East, the headteacher threatening to quit,
:01:25. > :01:26.after hundreds of schools are set to lose out under the government's
:01:27. > :01:39.All that coming up in the next hour and a quarter.
:01:40. > :01:42.Now, some of you might have read that intruders managed
:01:43. > :01:45.to get into the BBC news studios this weekend.
:01:46. > :01:48.Well three of them appear not to have been ejected yet,
:01:49. > :01:51.so we might as well make use of them as our political panel.
:01:52. > :01:54.Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.
:01:55. > :01:59.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:02:00. > :02:05.Philip Hammond will deliver his second financial
:02:06. > :02:07.statement as Chancellor and the last Spring Budget
:02:08. > :02:10.for a while at least - they are moving to the Autumn
:02:11. > :02:14.There's been pressure on him to find more money
:02:15. > :02:15.for the Health Service, social care, schools funding,
:02:16. > :02:21.But this morning the Chancellor insisted that he will not be
:02:22. > :02:23.using the proceeds of better than expected tax receipts to embark
:02:24. > :02:35.What is being speculated on is whether we might not have borrowed
:02:36. > :02:41.quite as much as we were forecast to borrow. You will see the numbers on
:02:42. > :02:46.Wednesday. But if your bank increases your credit card limit, I
:02:47. > :02:48.do not think you feel obliged to go out and spent every last penny of it
:02:49. > :03:00.He is moving the budget to the autumn, he told us that in his
:03:01. > :03:06.statement, so maybe on Wednesday it will be like a spring statement
:03:07. > :03:10.rather than a full-blown budget. Tinkering pre-Brexit and in November
:03:11. > :03:13.he will have a more clear idea of the impact of Brexit and I suspect
:03:14. > :03:19.that will be the bigger event than this one. It looks as if there will
:03:20. > :03:23.be a bit of money here and there, small amounts, not enough in my
:03:24. > :03:29.view, for social care and so on, possibly a review of social care
:03:30. > :03:33.policy. A familiar device which rarely get anywhere. I think he has
:03:34. > :03:38.got a bit more space to do more if he wanted to do now because of the
:03:39. > :03:43.politics. They are miles ahead in the polls, so he could do more, but
:03:44. > :03:49.it is not in his character, he is cautious. So he keeps his powder dry
:03:50. > :03:56.on most things, he does some things, but he keeps it dry until November.
:03:57. > :04:00.But also, as Steve says, he will know just how strong the economy has
:04:01. > :04:03.been this year by November and whether he needs to do some pump
:04:04. > :04:10.priming or whether everything is fine. He said it is too early to
:04:11. > :04:14.make those sorts of judgments now. What is striking is the amount of
:04:15. > :04:18.concern there is an Number ten and in the Treasury about the tone of
:04:19. > :04:22.this budget, so less about the actual figures and more about what
:04:23. > :04:28.message this is sending out to the rest of the world. I think some
:04:29. > :04:32.senior MPs are calling it a kind of treading water budget and Phil
:04:33. > :04:36.Hammond has got quite a difficult act to perform because he is
:04:37. > :04:42.instinctively rather cautious, or very cautious, and instinctively
:04:43. > :04:47.slightly gloomy about Brexit. He wanted to remain. But he does not
:04:48. > :04:52.want this budget to sounded downbeat and he will be mauled if he makes it
:04:53. > :04:56.sound downbeat, so he has to inject a little bit of optimism and we may
:04:57. > :05:01.see that in the infrastructure spending plans. He has got some room
:05:02. > :05:05.to manoeuvre. The deficit by the financial year ending in April we
:05:06. > :05:10.now know will not be as big as the OBR told us only three and a half
:05:11. > :05:15.months ago that it would be. They added 12 billion on and they may
:05:16. > :05:18.take most of that off again. He is under pressure from his own side to
:05:19. > :05:23.do something on social care and business rates and I bet some Tory
:05:24. > :05:28.backbenchers would not mind a little bit more money for the NHS as well.
:05:29. > :05:35.He is on a huge pressure to do a whole lot on a whole load, not just
:05:36. > :05:41.social care. There is also how on earth do we pay for so many old
:05:42. > :05:46.people? There is the NHS, defence spending, everything. But his words
:05:47. > :05:51.this morning, which is I am not going to spend potentially an extra
:05:52. > :05:56.30 billion I might have by 2020 because of improved economic growth
:05:57. > :06:02.was interesting. You need to hold something back because Brexit might
:06:03. > :06:08.go back and he was a bit of a remain campaign person. If you think
:06:09. > :06:12.Britain is going to curl up into a corner and hideaway licking its
:06:13. > :06:16.wounds, you have got another think coming. That 30 billion he might
:06:17. > :06:22.have extra in his pocket could be worth deploying on building up
:06:23. > :06:28.Britain with huge tax cuts in case there is no deal, a war chest if you
:06:29. > :06:33.like. He will have more than 27 billion. He may decide 27 billion in
:06:34. > :06:37.the statement, the margin by which he tries to get the structural
:06:38. > :06:42.deficit down, he will still have 27 billion. If the receipts are better
:06:43. > :06:49.than they are forecast, some people are saying he will have a war chest
:06:50. > :06:55.of 60 billion. That money, as Mr Osborne found out, can disappear. He
:06:56. > :07:01.clearly is planning not to go on a spending spree this Wednesday. It is
:07:02. > :07:06.interesting in the FTB and the day, David Laws who was chief Secretary
:07:07. > :07:09.for five minutes, was also enthusiastic about the original
:07:10. > :07:13.George Osborne austerity programme and he said, we have reached the
:07:14. > :07:17.limits to what is socially possible with this and a consensus is
:07:18. > :07:22.beginning to emerge that he will have to spend more money than he
:07:23. > :07:27.plans to this Wednesday. This is not just from Labour MPs, but from a lot
:07:28. > :07:31.of Conservative MPs as well. People will wonder when this austerity will
:07:32. > :07:33.end because it seems to be going on for ever. We will have more on the
:07:34. > :07:37.budget later in the programme. Now, the government was defeated
:07:38. > :07:39.last week in the House of Lords. Peers amended the bill that
:07:40. > :07:42.will allow Theresa May to trigger Brexit to guarantee the rights of EU
:07:43. > :07:45.nationals currently in the UK. The government says it will remove
:07:46. > :07:48.the amendment when the bill returns But today a report from
:07:49. > :07:54.the Common's Brexit committee also calls for the Government to make
:07:55. > :07:57.a unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU
:07:58. > :08:02.nationals living here. If the worst happened,
:08:03. > :08:05.are we actually going to say to 3 million Europeans here,
:08:06. > :08:08.who are nurses, doctors, serving us tea and coffee in restaurants,
:08:09. > :08:13.giving lectures at Leeds University, picking and processing vegetables,
:08:14. > :08:15."Right, off you go"? No, of course we are not
:08:16. > :08:18.going to say that. So, why not end the
:08:19. > :08:20.uncertainty for them now? will help to create the climate
:08:21. > :08:24.which will ensure everyone gets to say because that's
:08:25. > :08:34.what all of us want. That is why we have unanimously
:08:35. > :08:41.agreed this recommendation that the government should make unilateral
:08:42. > :08:44.decision to say to EU citizens here, yes, you can stay, because we think
:08:45. > :08:45.that is the right and fair thing to do.
:08:46. > :08:48.And we're joined now from Buckinghamshire by the leader
:08:49. > :08:51.of the House of Commons, David Lidington.
:08:52. > :08:57.Welcome back to the programme. The House of Lords has amended the
:08:58. > :09:01.Article 50 bill to allow the unilateral acceptance of EU
:09:02. > :09:04.nationals' right to remain in the UK. Is it still the government was
:09:05. > :09:11.my intention to remove that amendment in the comments? We have
:09:12. > :09:15.always been clear that we think this bill is very straightforward, it
:09:16. > :09:20.does nothing else except give the Prime Minister the authority that
:09:21. > :09:24.the courts insist upon to start the Article 50 process of negotiating
:09:25. > :09:31.with the other 27 EU countries. On the particular issue of EU citizens
:09:32. > :09:38.here and British citizens overseas, the PM did suggest that the December
:09:39. > :09:44.European summit last year that we do a pre-negotiation agreement on this.
:09:45. > :09:48.That was not acceptable to all of the other 27 because they took the
:09:49. > :09:52.view that you cannot have any kind of negotiation and to Article 50 has
:09:53. > :09:57.been triggered. That is where we are. I hope with goodwill and
:09:58. > :10:02.national self interest on all sides we can tackle this is right that the
:10:03. > :10:05.start of those negotiations. But it is not just the Lords. We have now
:10:06. > :10:11.got the cross-party Commons Brexit committee saying you should now make
:10:12. > :10:19.the unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU nationals in the
:10:20. > :10:25.UK. Even Michael go, Peter Lilley, John Whittington, agree. So why are
:10:26. > :10:29.you so stubborn on this issue? I think this is a complex issue that
:10:30. > :10:35.goes beyond the rise of presidents, but about things like the rights of
:10:36. > :10:42.access to health care, to pension ratings and benefits and so on...
:10:43. > :10:47.But you could settle back. It is also, Andrew, because you have got
:10:48. > :10:51.to look at it from the point of view of the British citizens, well over 1
:10:52. > :10:56.million living elsewhere in Europe. If we make the unilateral gesture,
:10:57. > :11:00.it might make us feel good for Britain and it would help in the
:11:01. > :11:05.short term those EU citizens who are here, but you have got those British
:11:06. > :11:10.citizens overseas who would then be potential bargaining chips in the
:11:11. > :11:16.hands of any of the 27 other governments. We do not know who will
:11:17. > :11:21.be in office during the negotiations and they may have completely
:11:22. > :11:24.extraneous reasons to hold up the agreement on the rights of British
:11:25. > :11:29.citizens. The sensible way to deal with this is 28 mature democracies
:11:30. > :11:32.getting around the table starting the negotiations and to agree to
:11:33. > :11:39.something that is fair to all sides and is reciprocal. What countries
:11:40. > :11:46.might take on UK nationals living in the EU? What countries are you
:11:47. > :11:50.frightened of? The one thing that I know from my own experience in the
:11:51. > :11:56.past of being involved in European negotiations is that issues come up
:11:57. > :12:03.that maybe have nothing to do with British nationals, but another issue
:12:04. > :12:07.that matters a huge amount to a particular government, it may not be
:12:08. > :12:12.a government yet in office, and they decide we can get something out of
:12:13. > :12:15.this, so let's hold up the agreement on British citizens until the
:12:16. > :12:21.British move in the direction we want on issue X. I hope it does not
:12:22. > :12:26.come to that. I think the messages I have had from EU ambassadors in
:12:27. > :12:31.London and from those it my former Europe colleague ministers is that
:12:32. > :12:35.we want this to be a done deal as quickly as possible. That is the
:12:36. > :12:40.British Government's very clear intention. We hope that we can get a
:12:41. > :12:44.reciprocal deal agreed before the Article 50 process. That was not
:12:45. > :12:50.possible. I understand that, you have said that already. But even if
:12:51. > :12:55.there is no reciprocal deal being done, is it really credible that EU
:12:56. > :13:01.nationals already here would lose their right to live and work and
:13:02. > :13:09.face deportation? You know that is not credible, that will not happen.
:13:10. > :13:14.We have already under our own system law whereby some people who have
:13:15. > :13:18.been lawfully resident and working here for five years can apply for
:13:19. > :13:22.permanent residency, but it is not just about residents. It is about
:13:23. > :13:26.whether residency carries with it certain rights of access to health
:13:27. > :13:34.care. I understand that, but have made this point. But the point is
:13:35. > :13:39.the right to live and work here that worries them at the moment. The Home
:13:40. > :13:45.Secretary has said there can be no change in their status without a
:13:46. > :13:47.vote in parliament. Could you ever imagine the British Parliament
:13:48. > :13:54.voting to remove their right to live and work here? I think the British
:13:55. > :14:02.Parliament will want to be very fair to EU citizens, as Hilary Benn and
:14:03. > :14:05.others rightly say they have been overwhelmingly been here working
:14:06. > :14:09.hard and paying taxes and contributing to our society. They
:14:10. > :14:14.were equally want to make sure there is a fair deal for our own citizens,
:14:15. > :14:17.more than a million, elsewhere in Europe. You cannot disentangle the
:14:18. > :14:23.issue of residence from those things that go with residents. Is the
:14:24. > :14:27.Article 50 timetabled to be triggered before the end of this
:14:28. > :14:33.month, is it threatened by these amendments in the Lords? I sincerely
:14:34. > :14:38.hope not because the House of Lords is a perfectly respectable
:14:39. > :14:41.constitutional role to look again at bills sent up by the House of
:14:42. > :14:48.commons. But they also have understood traditionally that as an
:14:49. > :14:52.unelected house they have to give primacy to the elected Commons at
:14:53. > :14:57.the end of the day. In this case it is not just the elected Commons that
:14:58. > :15:06.sent the bill to be amended, but the referendum that lies behind that. It
:15:07. > :15:08.is not possible? We are confident we can get Article 50 triggered by the
:15:09. > :15:16.end of the month. One of the other Lords amendments
:15:17. > :15:20.will be to have a meaningful vote on the Brexit deal when it is done at
:15:21. > :15:25.the end of the process, what is your view on that? What would you
:15:26. > :15:30.understand by a meaningful vote? The Government has already said there is
:15:31. > :15:36.going to be a meaningful vote at the end of the process. What do you mean
:15:37. > :15:40.by a meaningful vote? The parliament will get the opportunity to vote on
:15:41. > :15:43.the deal before it finishes the EU level process of going to
:15:44. > :15:49.consideration by the European Parliament. Parliament will be given
:15:50. > :15:56.a choice, as I understand, for either a vote for the deal you have
:15:57. > :16:01.negotiated or we leave on WTO rules and crash out anyway, is that what
:16:02. > :16:05.you mean by a meaningful choice? Parliament will get the choice to
:16:06. > :16:10.vote on the deal, but I think you have put your finger on the problem
:16:11. > :16:17.with trying to write something into the bill because any idea that the
:16:18. > :16:24.PM's freedom to negotiate is limited, any idea that if the EU 27
:16:25. > :16:28.were to play hardball, that somehow that means parliament would take
:16:29. > :16:31.fright, reverse the referendum verdict and set aside the views of
:16:32. > :16:36.the British people, that would almost guarantee that it would be
:16:37. > :16:42.much more difficult to get the sort of ambitious mutually beneficial
:16:43. > :16:46.deal for us and the EU 27. Your idea of a meaningful vote in parliament
:16:47. > :16:51.is the choices either to vote to accept this deal or we leave anyway,
:16:52. > :16:58.that is your idea of a meaningful vote. The Article 50 process is
:16:59. > :17:03.straightforward. There is the position of both parties in the
:17:04. > :17:11.recent Supreme Court case that the Article 50 process once triggered is
:17:12. > :17:17.irrevocable. That is in the EU Treaty already but we are saying
:17:18. > :17:24.very clearly that Parliament will get that right to debate and vote. I
:17:25. > :17:28.think the problem with what some in the House of Lords are proposing, I
:17:29. > :17:33.hope it is not a majority, is that the amendments they would seek to
:17:34. > :17:36.insert would tie the Prime Minister's hands, limit and
:17:37. > :17:38.negotiating freedom and put her in a more difficult position to negotiate
:17:39. > :17:43.on behalf of this country than should be the case. One year ago you
:17:44. > :17:48.said it could take six to eight years to agree a free-trade deal
:17:49. > :17:54.with the EU. Now you think you can do it in two, what's changed your
:17:55. > :18:08.mind? There is a very strong passionate supporter of Remain, as
:18:09. > :18:12.you know. I hope very much we are able to conclude not just the terms
:18:13. > :18:17.of the exit deal but the agreement that we are seeking on the long-term
:18:18. > :18:23.trade relationship... I understand that, but I'm trying to work out,
:18:24. > :18:28.what makes you think you can do it in two years when only a year ago
:18:29. > :18:34.you said it would take up to wait? The referendum clearly makes a big
:18:35. > :18:40.difference, and I think that there is an understanding amongst real the
:18:41. > :18:47.other 27 governments now that it is in everybody's interests to sort
:18:48. > :18:51.this shared challenge out of negotiating a new relationship
:18:52. > :18:55.between the EU 27 and the UK because European countries, those in and
:18:56. > :19:04.those who will be out of the EU, share the need to face up to massive
:19:05. > :19:07.challenges like terrorism and technological change. All of that
:19:08. > :19:10.was pretty obvious one year ago but we will see what happens. Thank you,
:19:11. > :19:12.David Lidington. Now, the Sunday Politics has had
:19:13. > :19:15.sight of a major new report The thousand-page study,
:19:16. > :19:20.which researchers say is the most comprehensive ever produced,
:19:21. > :19:26.analyses all 269 Islamist telated terrorist offences
:19:27. > :19:28.committed between 1998-2015. Most planned attacks were,
:19:29. > :19:30.thankfully, thwarted, but what can we learn
:19:31. > :19:32.from those offences? For the police and the intelligence
:19:33. > :19:42.agencies to fight terror, Researchers at the security think
:19:43. > :19:49.tank The Henry Jackson Society gave us early access to their huge
:19:50. > :19:59.new report which analyses every Islamism related attack
:20:00. > :20:01.and prosecution in the UK since 1998, that's 269 cases
:20:02. > :20:05.involving 253 perpetrators. With issues as sensitive
:20:06. > :20:08.as counterterrorism and counter radicalisation, it is really
:20:09. > :20:10.important to have an evidence base from which you draw
:20:11. > :20:12.policy and policing, This isn't my opinion,
:20:13. > :20:16.this the facts. This chart shows the number
:20:17. > :20:19.of cases each year combined with a small number
:20:20. > :20:23.of successful suicide attacks. Notice the peak in the middle
:20:24. > :20:26.of the last decade around the time of the 7/7 bombings
:20:27. > :20:29.in London in 2005. Offences tailed off,
:20:30. > :20:33.before rising again from 2010, when a three-year period accounted
:20:34. > :20:36.for a third of all the terrorism cases since the researchers
:20:37. > :20:41.started counting. What we are seeing is a combination
:20:42. > :20:45.of both more offending, in terms of the threat increasing,
:20:46. > :20:48.we know that from the security services and police statements,
:20:49. > :20:50.but also I believe we are getting more efficient in terms
:20:51. > :20:53.of our policing and we are actually A third of people were found to have
:20:54. > :21:01.facilitated terrorism, that's providing encouragement,
:21:02. > :21:04.documents, money. About 18% of people
:21:05. > :21:07.were aspirational terrorists, 12% of convictions were related
:21:08. > :21:14.to travel, to training And 37% of people were convicted
:21:15. > :21:22.of planning attacks, although the methods have
:21:23. > :21:26.changed over time. Five or six years ago,
:21:27. > :21:30.we saw lots of people planning or attempting pipe bombs and most
:21:31. > :21:33.of the time they had Inspire magazine in their possession,
:21:34. > :21:36.that's a magazine, an Al-Qaeda English-language online
:21:37. > :21:37.magazine that had specific More recently we have seen
:21:38. > :21:43.Islamic State encouraging people to engage in lower tech knife
:21:44. > :21:45.beheading, stabbings attacks and I think that's why we have
:21:46. > :21:48.seen that more recently. Shasta Khan plotted with her
:21:49. > :21:52.husband to bomb the Jewish In 2012 she received
:21:53. > :21:58.an eight-year prison sentence. She's one of an increasing
:21:59. > :22:02.number of women convicted of an Islamism related offence
:22:03. > :22:05.although it is still overwhelmingly a crime carried out
:22:06. > :22:08.by men in their 20s. Despite fears of foreign terrorists,
:22:09. > :22:11.a report says the vast Most have their home in London,
:22:12. > :22:19.around 43% of them. 18% lived in the West Midlands,
:22:20. > :22:23.particularly in Birmingham, and the north-west is another
:22:24. > :22:25.hotspot with around 10% Richard Dart lived in Weymouth
:22:26. > :22:32.and tried to attend a terrorist He was a convert to Islam, as were
:22:33. > :22:41.60% of the people in this report. He was a convert to Islam, as were
:22:42. > :22:45.16% of the people in this report. Like the majority of cases,
:22:46. > :22:47.he had a family, network. What's particularly interesting
:22:48. > :22:50.is how different each story is in many ways,
:22:51. > :22:53.but then within those differences So your angry young men,
:22:54. > :23:01.in the one sense inspired to travel, seek training and combat experience
:23:02. > :23:08.abroad, and then the older, recruiter father-figure types,
:23:09. > :23:10.the fundraising facilitator types. There are types within
:23:11. > :23:13.this terrorism picture, but the range of backgrounds
:23:14. > :23:19.and experiences is huge. And three quarters of those
:23:20. > :23:21.convicted of Islamist terrorism were on the radar of the authorities
:23:22. > :23:24.because they had a previous criminal record, they had
:23:25. > :23:27.made their extremism public, or because MI5 had them
:23:28. > :23:33.under surveillance. To discuss the findings of this
:23:34. > :23:40.report are the former Security Minister Pauline Neville-Jones,
:23:41. > :23:43.Talha Ahmad from the Muslim Council of Britain, and Adam Deen
:23:44. > :23:58.from the anti-extremist group The report finds the most segregated
:23:59. > :24:03.Muslim community is, the more likely it is to incubate Islamist
:24:04. > :24:08.terrorists, what is the MCB doing to encourage more integrated
:24:09. > :24:12.communities? Its track record on calling for reaching out to the
:24:13. > :24:16.wider society and having a more integrated and cohesive society I
:24:17. > :24:21.think is a pretty strong one, so one thing we are doing for example very
:24:22. > :24:26.recently I've seen we had this visit my mosque initiative, the idea was
:24:27. > :24:28.that mosques become open to inviting people of other faiths and their
:24:29. > :24:35.neighbours to come so we were encouraged to see so many
:24:36. > :24:41.participating. It is one step forward. Is it a good thing or a bad
:24:42. > :24:46.thing that in a number of Muslim communities, the Muslim population
:24:47. > :24:49.is over 60% of the community? I personally and the council would
:24:50. > :24:53.prefer to have more mixed communities but one of the reason
:24:54. > :24:57.they are heavily concentrated is not so much because they prefer to but
:24:58. > :25:03.often because the socio- economic reality forces them to. But you
:25:04. > :25:07.would like to see less segregation? Absolutely, we would prefer more
:25:08. > :25:11.diverse communities around the country. What is your reaction to
:25:12. > :25:16.that? Will need more diverse communities but one of the
:25:17. > :25:20.challenges we have right now with certain organisations is this
:25:21. > :25:23.pushback against the Government, with its attempts to help young
:25:24. > :25:28.Muslims not go down this journey of extremism. One of those things is
:25:29. > :25:31.the Prevent strategy and we often hear organisations like the MCB
:25:32. > :25:37.attacking the strategy which is counter-productive. What do you say
:25:38. > :25:43.to that? Do we support the Government have initiatives to
:25:44. > :25:48.counteract terrorism, of course we do. Do you support the Prevent
:25:49. > :25:54.strategy? We don't because it scapegoats an entire community. The
:25:55. > :25:58.report shows that contrary to a lot of lone wolf theories and people
:25:59. > :26:01.being radicalised in their bedrooms on the Internet that 80% of those
:26:02. > :26:22.convicted had connections with the extremist groups. Indeed 25% willing
:26:23. > :26:28.to Al-Muhajiroun. I think this report, which is a thorough piece of
:26:29. > :26:32.work, charts a long period and it is probably true to say that in the
:26:33. > :26:36.earlier stages these organisations were very important, of course
:26:37. > :26:42.subsequently we have had direct recruiting by IS one to one over the
:26:43. > :26:46.Internet so we have a mixed picture of how people are recruited but
:26:47. > :26:50.there's no doubt these organisations are recruiting sergeants. You were
:26:51. > :26:59.once a member of one of these organisations, are we doing enough
:27:00. > :27:08.to thwart them? If we just focus on these organisations, we will fail.
:27:09. > :27:11.We -- the question is are we doing enough to neutralise them? The
:27:12. > :27:17.Government strategy is in the right place, but where we need to focus on
:27:18. > :27:22.is the Muslim community or communities. The Muslim community
:27:23. > :27:27.must realise that these violent extremists are fringe but they share
:27:28. > :27:30.ideas, a broad spectrum of ideas that penetrate deeply within Muslim
:27:31. > :27:34.communities and we need to tackle those ideas because that is where it
:27:35. > :27:42.all begins. Are you in favour of banning groups like Al-Muhajiroun?
:27:43. > :27:46.Yes, it was the right thing to do and I can tell you the community has
:27:47. > :27:54.moved a long way, Al-Muhajiroun does not have support. Do you agree with
:27:55. > :28:01.that? Yes, but it is very simplistic attacking Al-Muhajiroun. ISIS didn't
:28:02. > :28:06.bring about extremism, extremism brought about ISIS, ISIS is just the
:28:07. > :28:11.brand and if we don't deal with the ideological ideas we will have other
:28:12. > :28:18.organisations popping up. The report suggests that almost a quarter of
:28:19. > :28:23.Islamist the latest offences were committed by individuals previous
:28:24. > :28:27.unknown to the security services. And this is on the rise, these
:28:28. > :28:29.numbers. This would seem to make an already difficult task for our
:28:30. > :28:37.intelligence services almost impossible. Two points. It is over
:28:38. > :28:45.80% I think were known, but it shows the intelligence services and police
:28:46. > :28:50.have got their eyes open. But the trend has been towards more not on
:28:51. > :28:56.the radar. That has been because the nature of the recruitment has also
:28:57. > :29:03.changed and you have much more ISIS inspired go out and do it yourself,
:29:04. > :29:08.get a knife, do something simple, so we have fewer of the big
:29:09. > :29:17.spectaculars that ISIS organised. Now you have got locally organised
:29:18. > :29:21.people, two or three people get together, do something together,
:29:22. > :29:28.very much harder actually to get forewarning of that. That is where
:29:29. > :29:34.intelligence inside the community, the community coming to the police
:29:35. > :29:39.say I'm worried about my friend, this is how you get ahead of that
:29:40. > :29:43.kind of attack. Should people in the Muslim community who are worried
:29:44. > :29:46.about individuals being radicalised, perhaps going down the terrorist
:29:47. > :29:53.route, should they bring in the police? Absolutely and we have been
:29:54. > :29:57.consistent on telling the community that wherever they suspect someone
:29:58. > :30:00.has been involved in terrorism or any kind of criminal activity, they
:30:01. > :30:08.should call the police and cooperate. As the so-called
:30:09. > :30:10.caliphate collapses in the Middle East, how worried should we be about
:30:11. > :30:24.fighters returning here? Extremely worried. They fall into
:30:25. > :30:27.three categories. You have ones who are disillusioned about Islamic
:30:28. > :30:30.State. You have ones who are disturbed, and then you have the
:30:31. > :30:36.dangerous who have not disavowed their ideas and who will have great
:30:37. > :30:42.reasons to perform attacks. What do we do? Anyone who comes back, there
:30:43. > :30:49.should be evidence looked into if they committed any crimes. But all
:30:50. > :30:53.those categories should all be be radicalised. You cannot leave them
:30:54. > :30:59.alone. Will we be sure if we know when they come back? That is
:31:00. > :31:05.difficult to say. They could come in and we might not know. There is a
:31:06. > :31:13.watch list so you have got a better chance. And you can identify them?
:31:14. > :31:16.This is where working with other countries is absolutely crucial and
:31:17. > :31:21.our border controls need to be good as well. I am not saying and the
:31:22. > :31:25.government is not saying that anyone would ever slip through, but it is
:31:26. > :31:30.our ability to know when somebody is coming through and to stop them at
:31:31. > :31:35.the border has improved. An important question. Given your
:31:36. > :31:42.experience, how prepared are away for a Paris style attack in a
:31:43. > :31:46.medium-size, provincial city? The government has exercised this one.
:31:47. > :31:50.It started when I was security minister and it has been taken
:31:51. > :31:55.seriously. The single biggest challenge that the police and the
:31:56. > :31:58.Army says will be one of those mobile, roving attacks. You have to
:31:59. > :32:02.take it seriously and the government does. All right, we will leave it
:32:03. > :32:06.Now, Brexit may have swept austerity from the front pages,
:32:07. > :32:09.but the deficit hasn't gone away and the government is still
:32:10. > :32:12.Just this week Whitehall announced that government departments have
:32:13. > :32:17.been told to find another ?3.5bn worth of savings by 2020.
:32:18. > :32:20.Last November the Independent office for Budget Responsibility
:32:21. > :32:22.said the budget deficit would be ?68 billion in the current
:32:23. > :32:28.It would still be ?17 billion by 2021-22.
:32:29. > :32:31.On Wednesday the Chancellor is expected to announce
:32:32. > :32:36.that the 2016-17 deficit has come in much lower than the OBR forecast.
:32:37. > :32:40.Even so, the government is still aiming for the lowest level
:32:41. > :32:45.of public spending as a percentage of national income since 2003-4,
:32:46. > :32:48.coupled with an increase in the tax burden to its highest
:32:49. > :32:54.So spending cuts will continue with reductions in day-to-day
:32:55. > :32:57.government spending accelerating, producing a real terms cut of over
:32:58. > :33:04.But capital spending, investment on infrastructure
:33:05. > :33:08.like roads, hospitals, housing, is projected to grow,
:33:09. > :33:14.producing a 16 billion real terms increase by 2021-22.
:33:15. > :33:17.The Chancellor's task on Wednesday is to keep these fiscal targets
:33:18. > :33:20.while finding some more money for areas under serious
:33:21. > :33:28.pressure such as the NHS, social care and business rates.
:33:29. > :33:32.We're joined now by Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
:33:33. > :33:39.Welcome back to the programme. In last March's budget the OBR
:33:40. > :33:43.predicted just over 2% economic growth for this year. By the Autumn
:33:44. > :33:49.Statement in the wake of the Brexit vote it downgraded back to 1.4%. It
:33:50. > :33:54.is now expected to revise that back around to 2% as the Bank of England
:33:55. > :33:59.has again. It is speculated on the future. It looks like we will get a
:34:00. > :34:04.growth forecast for this year not very different from where it was a
:34:05. > :34:07.year ago. What the bank did was upgrade its forecast for the next
:34:08. > :34:13.year or so, but not change very much. It was thinking about three or
:34:14. > :34:17.four years' time, which is what really matters. It looked like the
:34:18. > :34:22.OBR made a mistake in downgrading the growth in the Autumn Statement
:34:23. > :34:26.three months ago. It was more optimistic than nearly all the other
:34:27. > :34:34.forecasters and the Bank of England. It was wrong, but not as wrong as
:34:35. > :34:37.everybody else. We don't know, but if it significantly upgraded its
:34:38. > :34:44.growth forecast for the next three or four years, I would be surprised.
:34:45. > :34:48.It also added 12 billion to the deficit for the current financial
:34:49. > :34:53.year in the Autumn Statement, compared with March. It looks like
:34:54. > :34:58.that deficit will probably be cut again by about 12 billion compared
:34:59. > :35:02.to the last OBR forecast. It is quite difficult to make economic
:35:03. > :35:07.policy on the basis of changes of that skill every couple of months.
:35:08. > :35:12.That is one of the problems about having these two economic event so
:35:13. > :35:15.close together. My guess is the number will come out somewhere
:35:16. > :35:20.between the budget and the Autumn Statement numbers. There was a nice
:35:21. > :35:25.surprise for the Chancellor last month which looked like tax revenues
:35:26. > :35:29.were coming in a lot more strongly than he expected. But again the real
:35:30. > :35:33.question is how much is this making a difference in the medium run? Is
:35:34. > :35:39.this a one-off thing all good news for the next several years? If
:35:40. > :35:43.growth and revenues are stronger, perhaps not as strong as the good
:35:44. > :35:47.news last month, but if they are stronger than had been forecast in
:35:48. > :35:52.the Autumn Statement, what does that mean for planned spending cuts? It
:35:53. > :35:56.probably does not mean very much. Let's not forget the best possible
:35:57. > :36:00.outcome of this budget will be that for the next couple of years things
:36:01. > :36:05.look no worse than they did a year ago and in four years out they will
:36:06. > :36:09.still look a bit worse, and in addition Philip Hammond did increase
:36:10. > :36:14.his spending plans in November. However good the numbers look in a
:36:15. > :36:20.couple of days' time, we will still be borrowing at least 20 billion
:36:21. > :36:27.more by 2020 than we were forecasting a year ago. Still quite
:36:28. > :36:33.constrained. George Osborne wanted to get us to budget surplus by 2019.
:36:34. > :36:38.That has gone. Philip Hammond is quite happy with a big deficit and
:36:39. > :36:43.is not interested in that. But what he is thinking to a large extent, as
:36:44. > :36:48.you have made clear, there is a lot of uncertainty about the economic
:36:49. > :36:52.reaction over the next three or four years. He says he wants some
:36:53. > :36:57.headroom. If things go wrong, I do not want to announce more spending
:36:58. > :37:00.cuts or more tax rises to keep the deficit down. I want to say things
:37:01. > :37:06.have gone wrong for now and we will borrow. And I have got some money in
:37:07. > :37:11.the kitty. He will not spend a lot of it now. I understand the
:37:12. > :37:17.Chancellor is worried about the erosion of the tax base and it is
:37:18. > :37:22.hard to put VAT up by more than 20%, millions have been taken out of
:37:23. > :37:28.income tax, only 46% of people pay income tax, fuel duty is frozen for
:37:29. > :37:31.ever, corporation tax has been cut, the growth in self-employed has
:37:32. > :37:37.reduced revenues, is that a real concern? These are all worries for
:37:38. > :37:42.him. We have as you said in the introduction to this, got a tax
:37:43. > :37:47.burden which is rising very gradually, but it is rising to its
:37:48. > :37:51.highest level since the mid-19 80s, but is not doing it through
:37:52. > :37:55.straightforward increases to income tax. Lots of bits of pieces of
:37:56. > :38:01.insurance premium tax is here and the apprenticeship levied there, and
:38:02. > :38:06.that is higher personal allowance of income tax and a freeze fuel duty,
:38:07. > :38:10.but at some point we will have to look at the tax system as a whole
:38:11. > :38:18.and ask if we can carry on like this. We will have to start increase
:38:19. > :38:25.fuel duties again, or look to those big but unpopular taxes to really
:38:26. > :38:30.keep that money coming in to keep the challenges we will have over the
:38:31. > :38:35.next 30 years. He is going to set up a commission on social care. He has
:38:36. > :38:37.had quite a few commissions on social care. Thank you for being
:38:38. > :38:39.with us. It's just gone 11.35,
:38:40. > :38:41.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:38:42. > :38:44.in Scotland who leave us now Coming up here in twenty
:38:45. > :38:53.minutes, the Week Ahead. Hello and welcome to
:38:54. > :38:56.The Sunday Politics East. Later in the programme,
:38:57. > :39:01.the fairer funding formula hitting hundreds of our schools.
:39:02. > :39:03.Some do gain, but one headteacher says he will quit,
:39:04. > :39:08.rather than sack any staff. I am not willing to come
:39:09. > :39:12.into this profession, that I love so much, and ruin
:39:13. > :39:14.children's lives. With me is Clive Lewis,
:39:15. > :39:16.the Labour MP for Norwich South, who recently stood down
:39:17. > :39:18.as Shadow Business Secretary And Patrick O'Flynn,
:39:19. > :39:22.the Ukip MEP for the Eastern region, who once fell out with the former
:39:23. > :39:30.leader, Nigel Farage. He is not the only one.
:39:31. > :39:35.Douglas Carswell has all also become embroiled in a spat with the former
:39:36. > :39:38.leader of the party. Nigel Farage called
:39:39. > :39:41.for the resignation of the party's only MP, amid accusations that
:39:42. > :39:51.Douglas Carswell failed to lobby for a knighthood for him.
:39:52. > :39:53.It is something the Clacton MP The multi-millionaire who helps fund
:39:54. > :39:58.Ukip, Arron Banks, then threatened to stand against Carswell
:39:59. > :40:01.will at the next general election. One member of Ukip's
:40:02. > :40:03.national executive had this Douglas should go off
:40:04. > :40:07.and do his own thing. He was independent and did not
:40:08. > :40:10.really follow the Ukip whip at all. Not that we have a whip,
:40:11. > :40:13.as he is the only one there in Parliament.
:40:14. > :40:15.He doesn't always go with with the general accord of the party
:40:16. > :40:26.or the constitution of the party. Well, yes, I have
:40:27. > :40:30.to admit, it has been My view is that Paul
:40:31. > :40:34.Nuttall was elected on an overwhelming mandate
:40:35. > :40:40.and on a ticket of party unity. I think he had managed
:40:41. > :40:43.to establish party unity. I call on all the supporters
:40:44. > :40:48.of the party and the members to get behind Paul and keep speaking
:40:49. > :40:50.speaking with one voice. These noises are an
:40:51. > :40:53.annoying distraction. You are talking about
:40:54. > :40:57.party unity, but when Nigel Farage was the leader,
:40:58. > :40:59.you called him "snivelling I don't think that
:41:00. > :41:01.was quite the phrase. Do your views lie more in accord
:41:02. > :41:07.with Douglas Carswell? People have said there has been far
:41:08. > :41:17.too much toing and froing. As I recall, during
:41:18. > :41:20.the week, Douglas has not The accusation was that
:41:21. > :41:24.Douglas had gone out his way to block Nigel
:41:25. > :41:28.getting a knighthood. That does not does not seem
:41:29. > :41:31.to be the case, at all. Douglas did lobby for Nigel to get
:41:32. > :41:34.a knighthood, but maybe made some kind of quip
:41:35. > :41:44.that annoyed Nigel. This is more than just
:41:45. > :41:47.the to and fro between two people. It is more about the battle
:41:48. > :41:50.for the heart and mind of Ukip. We have got the anti-immigration
:41:51. > :41:52.wing and we have got I do not think there
:41:53. > :42:01.is an anti-immigration wing of Ukip. I think the whole party
:42:02. > :42:05.wants scaled immigration. I think everyone sees immigration
:42:06. > :42:08.has been far too high and we want to establish our own border system
:42:09. > :42:11.and our own point system. Douglas agrees with that just
:42:12. > :42:13.as much as anyone else. And on some ideas, Douglas
:42:14. > :42:16.and Nigel may be more But there has been some bad blood
:42:17. > :42:24.between Nigel and Douglas. If you want me to trace the cause
:42:25. > :42:27.of it, I think it was the issue of which group was going to lead
:42:28. > :42:30.the Leave campaign Douglas thought, as did I,
:42:31. > :42:37.that Vote Leave was best equipped to That got the designation
:42:38. > :42:43.and that won the referendum. We thought the Labour
:42:44. > :42:46.Party had problems. More on that later, but do you think
:42:47. > :42:49.what Ukip is going through That is why I am a bit
:42:50. > :42:55.reluctant to get But one party, one MP
:42:56. > :43:00.and multiple splits. I do not quite know
:43:01. > :43:02.what has happened there. Where you are and where
:43:03. > :43:09.Douglas Carswell is, is a very different place
:43:10. > :43:12.to where Nigel Farage is. He is far more toxic
:43:13. > :43:13.on immigration that I say that because I think,
:43:14. > :43:23.he has come back from America and I think he believes the Trump
:43:24. > :43:26.brand of politics, which he is very enamoured
:43:27. > :43:30.with, is a good fit. There are many different
:43:31. > :43:32.parts of Ukip. There are those who want wanted
:43:33. > :43:35.to take back control But I think they have ridden
:43:36. > :43:45.the tiger of the issue of immigration and hostility
:43:46. > :43:47.to people from other countries. I think one was to
:43:48. > :43:49.secure coming out of Europe and I think that is
:43:50. > :43:52.where the split is now. The Conservatives are
:43:53. > :43:55.the party of Brexit now. Our primary function,
:43:56. > :43:57.as it was in the beginning, and Clive is right,
:43:58. > :44:00.we were set up to get us out of It was an ambition that many people
:44:01. > :44:14.scoffed at. Anyone who starts playing fast
:44:15. > :44:19.and loose with Brexit, we are there, to use the phrase,
:44:20. > :44:22.to bite them on the backside. But also, we are looking
:44:23. > :44:24.at other issues. Why is so much of our money put
:44:25. > :44:29.abroad for foreign aid when we have Briefly, yes or no,
:44:30. > :44:33.will Carswell survive? He's a very valuable
:44:34. > :44:36.member of our party. I want to move on to the plight
:44:37. > :44:39.of many of the region's schools. Nearly 1,000 of them
:44:40. > :44:42.are going to lose out under the government's
:44:43. > :44:43.new funding formula. The idea behind the changes
:44:44. > :44:46.was to create a more level But more than one-third
:44:47. > :44:49.of schools here will find Under the changes, two-thirds
:44:50. > :44:52.of schools could see more funding with the biggest winners,
:44:53. > :44:54.Suffolk and Bedford Borough. There, more than 75%
:44:55. > :45:06.of the schools will gain. In most of our authorities,
:45:07. > :45:09.more than half of the schools will receive
:45:10. > :45:10.a rise in funding. But at the bottom,
:45:11. > :45:12.Luton and Southend. In the latter, no schools
:45:13. > :45:18.will get any more money. The headteacher of one high-profile
:45:19. > :45:21.school in Harlow has warned warned that he will resign,
:45:22. > :45:23.rather than sack any staff under This is the school that entertained
:45:24. > :45:29.millions on Educating Essex. But could the headmaster
:45:30. > :45:32.of the school put himself His is one of thousands of schools
:45:33. > :45:37.across the country which could see a cut in funding
:45:38. > :45:39.from the government Passmores School
:45:40. > :45:46.could lose ?750,000. That would mean bigger class sizes
:45:47. > :45:53.and up to 20 teacher redundancies. I have already said,
:45:54. > :45:57.for that particular year, I will draw the plan up to try
:45:58. > :46:00.and save that money, Therefore, there will be a difficult
:46:01. > :46:06.choice at some point for me and for them, in that
:46:07. > :46:09.them, I will either have to leave because they are asking me
:46:10. > :46:12.to do something I am not willing to do, or they will have
:46:13. > :46:15.to get rid of me. I am not willing to come
:46:16. > :46:19.into this profession, that I love so much,
:46:20. > :46:34.and ruin children's lives. I am getting upset even thinking
:46:35. > :46:49.about it. There were always going to be winners and losers. The school is
:46:50. > :46:54.not alone in feeling the pressure. There are a lot of possible protests
:46:55. > :47:04.coming up and at least one resignation. Under the proposed
:47:05. > :47:17.changes, some schools will be given a lump some to take into account
:47:18. > :47:26.previous funding and mobility. In Luton, 57 of the 59 primary schools
:47:27. > :47:31.will see the budget cut. We have the greatest need is greatest
:47:32. > :47:40.deprivation. We would like to think that any government would put that
:47:41. > :47:51.as a priority. Teachers taking to the streets to protest has not been
:47:52. > :47:57.ruled out by the council. At the end of the day, the formula is not
:47:58. > :48:03.providing enough funding peer people for the schools to be able to
:48:04. > :48:09.giving enough money to them. Amid giving enough money to them. Amid
:48:10. > :48:17.accusations that the government has simply got near mathematics role. We
:48:18. > :48:23.felt there was a big disparity across different parts of the
:48:24. > :48:37.country. Are we spending the rate mode in the right places? In a place
:48:38. > :48:46.like Luton with a sort of a motor of deprivation, funding cut like that
:48:47. > :48:49.simply be right. The Department for Education would not give is an
:48:50. > :49:17.interview, but did release a statement.
:49:18. > :49:29.Two thirds of schools in the region getting more money. What is the
:49:30. > :49:36.problem? In my constituency, ?40 million less will be spent. It is
:49:37. > :49:42.going to have a real impact on the schools. We came second from the
:49:43. > :50:00.bottom on social mobility. What we are seeing, it is busily rearranging
:50:01. > :50:03.debt levels across education. This is the first cut in education that
:50:04. > :50:16.we have seen for nearly three decades. It is very serious. We came
:50:17. > :50:25.up with fully funded tax cuts to help education. The likes of the
:50:26. > :50:29.Barnett formula, we would have looked at that again, which gives
:50:30. > :50:38.disproportionate amounts of money to Scotland, the foreign aid budget. We
:50:39. > :50:42.have got to a position where even the people who are benefiting
:50:43. > :50:51.probably feel that they are standing still. What is the answer? Schools
:50:52. > :50:54.simply need more money. Readers are going to come from? At the last
:50:55. > :51:02.general election, we said what we general election, we said what we
:51:03. > :51:10.would cut to fund it. We think if you invest in people, that is how
:51:11. > :51:16.you boost the economy. The critical thing is that this is not just about
:51:17. > :51:19.schools. It is not just about secondary schools. It affects
:51:20. > :51:27.nursery schooling and primary schools. We will turn back to the
:51:28. > :51:32.problems of the Labour Party. They are way behind in the opinion polls
:51:33. > :51:40.on the back of two very disappointing by-election results.
:51:41. > :51:46.Though is that going down with party members in the region as the pupae
:51:47. > :51:58.are four important elections? -- PPO.
:51:59. > :52:09.The Labour Party leader was in Cambridge launching the election for
:52:10. > :52:17.the mayor. This is what he likes best, getting away from Westminster.
:52:18. > :52:20.This is about hosting. Cambridge is very expensive. We need proactive
:52:21. > :52:26.councils who are going to do something about that pervade hosting
:52:27. > :52:40.with rental that can be afforded by people. The Labour Party has not
:52:41. > :52:45.quite hit rock bottom. But the other end it worse position than they have
:52:46. > :52:51.been for decades. What about their chances in the East? The
:52:52. > :53:00.traditionally struggle to do well in the region. But there are places
:53:01. > :53:06.like Ipswich, which is a classic swing seat. It is held by the
:53:07. > :53:14.Conservatives at the moment. In this coffee shop, the CV upload of the
:53:15. > :53:17.Labour Party 's record locally. We have been Labour Party members for a
:53:18. > :53:25.long table. We have seen good times and bad teams. Do people ever talk
:53:26. > :53:33.about Jeremy Corbyn? His name has come up. A lot of people really love
:53:34. > :53:49.them, a lot of people really do not like him. It is very polarising. If
:53:50. > :53:55.you speak to everyone on the doorstep, most people will say, the
:53:56. > :54:00.do not have a problem with them. You will get the odd person who does not
:54:01. > :54:12.like him. But that does not seem to be any agreement on how to beat
:54:13. > :54:15.things better. The notion that getting Jeremy Corbyn oak-wood mean
:54:16. > :54:21.that everything would be fine and dandy tomorrow is ridiculous. A lot
:54:22. > :54:30.of people do not normally at the Labour Party stands any more. People
:54:31. > :54:35.seem to think it changes every day. We have to appeal to the wider
:54:36. > :54:43.electorate. That is where the problem is. How did he do that? You
:54:44. > :54:50.have to be given any clear for your objectives are, with relation to
:54:51. > :54:58.your traditional values. There are many places where the Labour Party
:54:59. > :55:06.has to do well. They have high levels of Labour support in the past
:55:07. > :55:20.recorded in these places. And this brings us to Clive Lewis. He stood
:55:21. > :55:26.up to Jeremy Corbyn over Trident and resigned as Shadow Business
:55:27. > :55:34.Secretary because of the Brexit situation. There are certain people
:55:35. > :55:40.that wanted him to run to try and replace Jeremy Corbyn. But I think
:55:41. > :55:47.he is not experienced enough. You do not want to do these things
:55:48. > :55:56.straightaway. Most of the Labour Party did not want another
:55:57. > :56:01.leadership election. They want the party to progress, but am not sure
:56:02. > :56:07.how it will do. I knew going to stand? No, I have heard all the
:56:08. > :56:14.stuff about telephone links be set up, websites being set up. It is
:56:15. > :56:21.complete rubbish. I helped Jeremy Corbyn get elected. I resigned over
:56:22. > :56:25.Europe. I resigned over Europe only. I have been quite clear we
:56:26. > :56:30.understand. I have only been in Parliament two years. I would not be
:56:31. > :56:34.ready. And quite frankly, I will tell you why you would not even
:56:35. > :56:42.stand. Jeremy Corbyn was elected twice to lead the party. You would
:56:43. > :56:48.not have go for the leader led Labour? You would never see that. If
:56:49. > :56:55.a few years down the line, someone said I had the potential, that may
:56:56. > :57:01.be different. You come into politics to lead your community, to stand up
:57:02. > :57:11.to people. What about these websites. Argue responsible for
:57:12. > :57:20.them? Not at all. I have no idea. Whether they come from. I do not
:57:21. > :57:30.know who they have come from. I did not do that, but I can tell you
:57:31. > :57:34.categorically it was not me. Should the responsible people be
:57:35. > :57:42.investigated? I have tried to find out Ruby have set this up. The
:57:43. > :57:53.initial findings are that it is a known Ukip activist. When we have
:57:54. > :58:01.more information, able release it. During our previous leadership
:58:02. > :58:06.issues, someone set up a Twitter account with me to be the leader,
:58:07. > :58:13.which got me into that of trouble. Very similar situation. It had
:58:14. > :58:19.nothing to do with me. You are not ruling out going for the Labour
:58:20. > :58:22.Party leadership in the future. In 1020 years, who knows? But I support
:58:23. > :58:33.the current leadership. I support Jeremy Corbyn. Most of the party
:58:34. > :58:40.need to get behind the leader. Do you think he will be the next Prime
:58:41. > :58:49.Minister? Yes, I do. If there was another leader Labour leadership
:58:50. > :59:05.election, to the benefit? I think they would benefit from a young,
:59:06. > :59:14.charismatic leader. Our party does need some sort of connection with
:59:15. > :59:22.the public. As you saw in the film the, there like of direction with
:59:23. > :59:32.regard to what the party policies. The policies on the national basis
:59:33. > :59:38.you to change to regularly. They do not change. New policies do come
:59:39. > :59:47.out. We have been through a big period of transition. What we will
:59:48. > :59:53.go see and articulate is new and policies which I think our
:59:54. > :59:58.investment in people lead. This is about how we can make sure that the
:59:59. > :00:03.wealth of the country is spread out. Now, a quickfire look at some other
:00:04. > :00:07.stories over the last seven days, Norfolk MP George Freeman
:00:08. > :00:12.weathering a storm, over his comment that benefits
:00:13. > :00:14.should only go to "really It prompted the Prime Minister
:00:15. > :00:25.to come to his defence. My honourable friend has rightly
:00:26. > :00:28.apologised for the comments that he made and I hope that this
:00:29. > :00:30.whole House will Good ratings this week
:00:31. > :00:33.from the independent watchdog about most of our police forces, with
:00:34. > :00:36.the exception of Northamptonshire and Hertfordshire,
:00:37. > :00:37.who require improvement. But Bedfordshire Police was the only
:00:38. > :00:40.force in the country to be The Justice Secretary Elizabeth
:00:41. > :00:46.Truss appeared before a House of Lords select committee
:00:47. > :00:48.and defended herself for staying silent when judges
:00:49. > :00:55.were criticised over Brexit. I think it is dangerous
:00:56. > :00:57.for a government minister to be saying, "This is an acceptable
:00:58. > :01:03.headline and this is not". And an 'enthusiastic' participant
:01:04. > :01:08.won the MPs annual pancake race. How does it feel for
:01:09. > :01:11.Labour to win something? We are getting used to it.
:01:12. > :01:35.We are getting used to it. We are going to have to get
:01:36. > :01:40.yesterday? I have often been called a toss. Very good. That is all we
:01:41. > :01:43.have time for. And that is all from The Sunday
:01:44. > :01:50.Politics all we need Crossrail as well. We will be
:01:51. > :01:52.poring over the entrails of the budget next week. Thank you very
:01:53. > :01:57.much indeed. So the Brexit Bill is back in
:01:58. > :02:03.the Lords next week and the Lib Dems They've ordered pizza and camp beds
:02:04. > :02:06.to encourage their peers to keep talking all night,
:02:07. > :02:09.only to be told by the Lord's authorities that their plans fall
:02:10. > :02:21.foul of health and safety laws. Laws that they probably voted for.
:02:22. > :02:25.What did you make of David Liddington's remarks on the Lords
:02:26. > :02:30.amendments, particularly not just the one on EU nationals, but on what
:02:31. > :02:37.is regarded as a meaningful vote at the end of the process? Let's be
:02:38. > :02:39.clear, as ministers like to say, the meaningful vote vote is by far the
:02:40. > :02:47.biggest thing that will happen in Parliament. It puts EU citizens into
:02:48. > :02:53.a tiny corner. It will decide not just who is going to have the final
:02:54. > :02:57.say on this, but who the EU is negotiating with. Is it directly
:02:58. > :03:00.with Theresa May or is it with Parliament? Who will decide the
:03:01. > :03:09.shape of Brexit, Parliament or Theresa May? The Lords amendment is
:03:10. > :03:12.just the first chapter. They have voiced Theresa May to give them a
:03:13. > :03:17.veto on everything she does, and there is a possible chance in the
:03:18. > :03:25.Commons could uphold this amendment. The meaningful vote amendment? The
:03:26. > :03:29.meaningful vote amendment. But is it a meaningful vote if the choice is
:03:30. > :03:36.to either back the deal or crash out of the deal? That is what the remain
:03:37. > :03:41.supporting MPs or hardline people who want to remain fear. What they
:03:42. > :03:47.want is the power to be able to send Theresa May back to the negotiating
:03:48. > :03:51.table. Why is that anathema to many Brexit supporters? They believed it
:03:52. > :03:56.would crucially and critically undermine Theresa May's negotiating
:03:57. > :04:00.hand and also create a long period of uncertainty for business. There
:04:01. > :04:05.is already great uncertainty and this could extend it. The
:04:06. > :04:10.government's position is in there was a proper, meaningful vote which
:04:11. > :04:16.Parliament could reject what was on offer, that would be an incentive to
:04:17. > :04:21.the EU to give us a bad deal? I think that is the fear. If you are
:04:22. > :04:24.saying to the people you are negotiating with that that is
:04:25. > :04:29.another authority and Theresa May will have to go back and have all of
:04:30. > :04:33.this approved, I think it would have a very significant undermining
:04:34. > :04:39.effect on her negotiating hand. Things change from day to day. We
:04:40. > :04:45.are talking about 2019 and 2018 at the earliest, but if the government
:04:46. > :04:53.lost a vote on the Brexit deal, would he not have to call in someone
:04:54. > :04:58.else? That is why the vote will be meaningful even if the amendment on
:04:59. > :05:04.this meaningful vote will be lost. You cannot do a deal on something as
:05:05. > :05:10.historic as Brexit and have Parliament against you. So, whatever
:05:11. > :05:16.form this vote takes, whenever it happens, it will be hugely
:05:17. > :05:21.meaningful. Whatever label that is given and if she lost it she would
:05:22. > :05:28.call a general election. She could not impose it. To call a general
:05:29. > :05:32.election now you need a majority of MPs which she will not have, so
:05:33. > :05:36.maybe she will not get her election after all. It would be very unlike
:05:37. > :05:39.Labour not to vote for an election. It would be very unlike Labour not
:05:40. > :05:42.to vote for an election. The elections to Stormont have given
:05:43. > :05:45.a boost to the republicans and put the long term status
:05:46. > :05:48.of Northern Ireland in some doubt. Sinn Fein's leader Gerry Adams
:05:49. > :05:50.spoke to reporters Yesterday was in many,
:05:51. > :05:55.many ways a watershed election, and we have just started a process
:05:56. > :05:59.of reflecting what it all means, but clearly the union's majority
:06:00. > :06:15.in the Assembly has been ended, and the notion of a permanent
:06:16. > :06:28.or a perpetual unionist majority Is he right? Is this a watershed?
:06:29. > :06:33.The nationalist vote in the assembly will now come to 39 and the
:06:34. > :06:38.Unionists 38. It is only one member, but it is significant. This is a
:06:39. > :06:42.very serious moment and because of everything else going on with Donald
:06:43. > :06:46.Trump and Brexit it is taking a while for people here to realise
:06:47. > :06:51.just how significant this is. Talking to someone who only recently
:06:52. > :06:55.left a significant role in Northern Ireland politics last night, they
:06:56. > :06:59.said they were very worried about what this means. It is likely there
:07:00. > :07:04.will be a call for some kind of international figure to chair the
:07:05. > :07:08.talks to try and see if there is a way of everybody working together.
:07:09. > :07:13.All sides will probably try to extract more money from the
:07:14. > :07:17.Treasury, but it is a very dangerous moment. Should we regard Michelle
:07:18. > :07:22.O'Neill, who has replaced Mr McGuinness as the leader, it is she
:07:23. > :07:30.the First Minister death probably not quite. An interesting thought.
:07:31. > :07:36.Indeed, the daughter of an IRA man, a fascinating concept in itself. But
:07:37. > :07:41.there are are still a large amount of MLAs who will not give Sinn Fein
:07:42. > :07:45.what they need. But what effect does this have on the legacy of the
:07:46. > :07:50.prosecutions and the great witchhunts which the British
:07:51. > :07:56.Government has vowed to end. There is a majority left on the Stormont
:07:57. > :08:00.assembly to end those. But some would keep them going for time
:08:01. > :08:09.continuing, which is a headache for Theresa May. You have now got 27
:08:10. > :08:13.Sinn Fein members, 28 DUP, then the SDLP bumps up the numbers a little
:08:14. > :08:18.bit. You have got the British Government transfixed with Brexit
:08:19. > :08:22.which has huge implications for the border between North and South in
:08:23. > :08:28.Ireland, and the Irish government is pretty wavering as well and if there
:08:29. > :08:32.is an election there, Sinn Fein could do well in the Dublin
:08:33. > :08:37.parliament as well. There are a lot of moving pieces. There are and
:08:38. > :08:41.there is a danger that we look at everything through the prism of
:08:42. > :08:47.Brexit, but I found Friday and this weekend fascinating. Theresa May and
:08:48. > :08:51.Scotland were Nicola Sturgeon is framing Brexit entirely through an
:08:52. > :08:56.argument to have a second referendum on independence which she wants to
:08:57. > :09:03.hold it she possibly can. And the Irish situation with the prospect of
:09:04. > :09:10.a hard border with Northern Ireland voting majority to remain, quite a
:09:11. > :09:16.substantial majority, again a few of the instability at the moment. That
:09:17. > :09:21.We will be keeping an eye on it for sure.
:09:22. > :09:22.Yesterday, US President Donald Trump tweeted allegations
:09:23. > :09:25.that his predecessor, Barack Obama, had ordered
:09:26. > :09:27.his phones to be tapped during the election campaign.
:09:28. > :09:30."Terrible!", Trump wrote, "Just found out that Obama
:09:31. > :09:34.had my "wires tapped" in Trump Tower just before the victory.
:09:35. > :09:48.I'm not quite sure what McCarthyism that is.
:09:49. > :09:50.He followed up with a series of tweets comparing it to Watergate.
:09:51. > :09:56."How low has President Obama gone to tap my phones during the very
:09:57. > :10:10.The sacred election process, I think at one stage he said it was a dodgy
:10:11. > :10:11.election process, but now it is sacred.
:10:12. > :10:24.You are frightened to go to bed at night, you do not know what you are
:10:25. > :10:29.going to wake up to. Completely uncharted territory here. Little
:10:30. > :10:32.more than a month ago at the inauguration they were making the
:10:33. > :10:39.veneer of small talk and politely shaking hands. He saw Barack Obama
:10:40. > :10:46.and Michelle off on the helicopter. You do not know what is coming next.
:10:47. > :10:51.Is there a scintilla of evidence to back up Donald Trump's claims? Yes,
:10:52. > :10:55.there is, although he is very muddled about it all. I will
:10:56. > :11:08.explain. Remember what happened to Mike Flynn, talking to the Russian
:11:09. > :11:13.and Ambassador will stop they were listening. Barack Obama does not
:11:14. > :11:17.sign of warrants, but somebody else did. So why on earth would you not
:11:18. > :11:25.want to listen to the president elect himself in case he might also
:11:26. > :11:29.be breaking the law. Does that sound to you like convincing evidence or
:11:30. > :11:33.just a supposition? I think Tom should go and work for him, that is
:11:34. > :11:39.the most credible interpretation I have heard for a long time. Start
:11:40. > :11:44.tweeting the case for the tweet. What is interesting about this is my
:11:45. > :11:48.theory is he does not really like the idea of being a president. That
:11:49. > :11:54.wild press conference he gave a couple of weeks ago there was one ad
:11:55. > :12:00.lib that did not get repeated which was, I suppose I am a politician
:12:01. > :12:04.now, as if he was humiliated at the idea of being a president. He likes
:12:05. > :12:09.being the businessman with a swagger tweeting around the clock. And
:12:10. > :12:14.campaigning again. He keeps going to what looked like campaign rallies. I
:12:15. > :12:18.disagree with you about him not liking being president. I think he
:12:19. > :12:23.loves the idea of being the president, but the reality is so
:12:24. > :12:26.frustrating on every level, finding he does not have unlimited room for
:12:27. > :12:30.manoeuvre and so many things have been put in place to stop them doing
:12:31. > :12:33.things he would do in the business environment. We have had two more
:12:34. > :12:39.tweets from him this morning, I guess when he woke up. Who was it
:12:40. > :12:42.who secretly said to the Russian president, tell Vladimir that after
:12:43. > :12:50.the election I will have more flexibility? Who was that? Possibly
:12:51. > :12:55.Hillary Clinton. Is it true the Democratic National committee would
:12:56. > :12:59.not allow the FBI access to check server or other equipment after
:13:00. > :13:03.learning it was hacked? Can that be possible? This was all an issue in
:13:04. > :13:08.the campaign. He is now a president. Shall I point out the flaw in Tom's
:13:09. > :13:12.theory. They were not bugging Michael Flynn's phone, it was the
:13:13. > :13:22.Russian Ambassador's telephone they were barking. Mr Neil, I would never
:13:23. > :13:26.contradict you on this programme. But if you suspect there was
:13:27. > :13:32.criminal activity going on, as there was by Michael Flynn, why would you
:13:33. > :13:38.not want to put on a tap? I don't know. That is it for today.
:13:39. > :13:41.I'll be back next week here on BBC One at 11am as usual.
:13:42. > :13:43.The Daily Politics is back tomorrow at midday on BBC Two.
:13:44. > :13:51.But remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.