:00:38. > :00:41.It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:42. > :00:44.The Government has insisted that Gibraltar will not be bargained
:00:45. > :00:48.But the territory's chief minister says the EU's proposal
:00:49. > :00:54.After a momentous week, Britain's journey out
:00:55. > :00:57.Can the Prime Minister satisfy her critics at home
:00:58. > :01:03.We speak to the former Conservative leader, Michael Howard.
:01:04. > :01:06.And we have the lowdown on next month's local elections -
:01:07. > :01:09.what exactly is up for grabs, who's going up and who's going down?
:01:10. > :01:14.Here in the East: Our MEPs say they can help sort out Brexit
:01:15. > :01:16.now that formal negotiations are about to begin.
:01:17. > :01:19.And hundreds of seats on our county councils up for grabs.
:01:20. > :01:22.changing their minds. MPs from opposing sides give the view from
:01:23. > :01:30.there constituencies. And with me, as always,
:01:31. > :01:32.the best and the brightest political panel in the business -
:01:33. > :01:34.Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott and Tom Newton Dunn who'll be
:01:35. > :01:40.tweeting throughout the programme. For the people of Gibraltar, Clause
:01:41. > :01:43.22 of the EU's draft negotiating guidelines came as something
:01:44. > :01:45.of a shock. The guidelines propose
:01:46. > :01:50.that the Government in Spain be given a veto over any future trade
:01:51. > :01:53.deal as it applies to The UK Government has reacted
:01:54. > :01:59.strongly, saying Gibraltar will not be bargained away
:02:00. > :02:01.in the Brexit talks. Here's the Defence Secretary,
:02:02. > :02:07.Michael Fallon, speaking We are going to look
:02:08. > :02:13.after Gibraltar. Gibraltar's going to be protected
:02:14. > :02:17.all the way, all the way, because the sovereignty of Gibraltar
:02:18. > :02:20.cannot be changed without the agreement of the people
:02:21. > :02:22.of Gibraltar and they have made it very clear they do not
:02:23. > :02:25.want to live under Spanish rule and it is interesting, I think,
:02:26. > :02:28.in the draft guidelines from the EU that Spain is not saying
:02:29. > :02:40.that the whole thing is subject Michael Fallon earlier. Steve, is
:02:41. > :02:45.this a Spanish power grab or much ado about nothing? It could be both.
:02:46. > :02:49.Clearly what is happening about this negotiation and will happen again
:02:50. > :02:54.and again is that at different points individual countries can
:02:55. > :03:01.start playing bargaining cards. They will say, if you want a deal, you
:03:02. > :03:05.have to deliver this, UK. Spain is doing it early. It might turn out to
:03:06. > :03:12.be nothing at all. It is an early example of how to delete recruit
:03:13. > :03:20.after Article 50 is triggered, the dynamic -- how after Article 50 is
:03:21. > :03:24.triggered, the dynamic changes. At certain points, any country can veto
:03:25. > :03:29.it. It gives them much more power than we have clocked so far. Donald
:03:30. > :03:35.Tusk, the head of the European Council, he went out of his way to
:03:36. > :03:38.say Britain mustn't deal by laterally, with individual
:03:39. > :03:44.countries, it has to deal with the EU as a block. Was it mischiefmaking
:03:45. > :03:52.to add this bit in about Spain? Those two things do not tally. I
:03:53. > :03:59.think on our part, when I say we, I mean the Foreign Office and Number
:04:00. > :04:02.10, we dropped the ball. By excluding Gibraltar from the letter
:04:03. > :04:07.of Article 50, they gave an opportunity to the Spanish to steal
:04:08. > :04:12.the narrative. Why this is important, presentation, things
:04:13. > :04:17.looked like they were going quite well for Theresa May when she handed
:04:18. > :04:21.over the letter, for a few hours, and suddenly, you have this
:04:22. > :04:27.incredible symbolism of Gibraltar. For Brexiteers, the idea that there
:04:28. > :04:32.could be some kind of diminishment or failure in relation to Gibraltar,
:04:33. > :04:36.it would be a very symbolic illustration of things not going
:04:37. > :04:40.entirely to plan. Forget the detail, it does not look great. Gibraltar
:04:41. > :04:45.got mentions in the white paper. They did not get a mention in the
:04:46. > :04:51.Article 50 notification. Do you think the British Government did not
:04:52. > :04:54.see this coming? To be honest, I do not think it would make a bit of
:04:55. > :04:59.difference. Theresa May could have an entire chapter in her letter to
:05:00. > :05:04.Donald Tusk and the Spanish and the EU would have still tried this on.
:05:05. > :05:10.For me, it was as much a point of symbolism than it was for any power
:05:11. > :05:15.grab. It was a good point to make. You need to know, Britain, you are
:05:16. > :05:19.not in our club, we will not have your interests at heart. Officials
:05:20. > :05:26.after the press conference, they went on to talk about it saying it
:05:27. > :05:32.is a territorial dispute. It is not! Gibraltar is British. It is very
:05:33. > :05:36.much a shot across the bow is. Whether it comes to pass, it is
:05:37. > :05:40.still yet to be seen. I feel we will be chasing hares like this for the
:05:41. > :05:47.next few years. There will be many other examples. They are greatly
:05:48. > :05:54.empowered by the whole process. Britain has not really got... It has
:05:55. > :05:57.got to wait and hear what their interpretation of Brexit is. They
:05:58. > :06:01.will negotiate, we will negotiate accordingly. I have some sympathy
:06:02. > :06:07.about the letter, the Article 50 letter. They agonised over it, so
:06:08. > :06:10.much to get right in terms of balance and tone. It would have been
:06:11. > :06:22.absurd to start mentioning Skegness and everything else. Why not!
:06:23. > :06:27.Skegness, what did they do? It is a real example of how the dynamic now
:06:28. > :06:31.changes. The Spanish royals are going to come here in a couple of
:06:32. > :06:36.months, that could be interesting. It will be good feelings breaking
:06:37. > :06:45.up, I am sure. -- breaking out. So, after a historic week,
:06:46. > :06:47.the UK is now very much But will it be a smooth
:06:48. > :06:51.journey to the exit door? Or can we expect
:06:52. > :06:53.a bit of turbulence? Are you taking back
:06:54. > :06:56.control, Prime Minister? Big days in politics usually
:06:57. > :06:58.involve people shouting and the Prime Minister getting
:06:59. > :07:00.in a car. It is only a few hundred metres
:07:01. > :07:03.from Downing Street to Parliament. But the short journey is the start
:07:04. > :07:06.of a much longer one and we do not know exactly
:07:07. > :07:11.where we will all end up. This is a historic moment
:07:12. > :07:13.from which there can Moments earlier, this Dear John,
:07:14. > :07:22.sorry, Dear Don letter, was delivered by Britain's
:07:23. > :07:25.ambassador in Brussels to the EU He seemed genuinely upset
:07:26. > :07:28.to have been jilted. Back in Westminster,
:07:29. > :07:33.hacks from around the world were trying to work out what it
:07:34. > :07:36.all meant for the So, here it is, a copy
:07:37. > :07:42.of the six-page letter The letter reaffirms the PM's
:07:43. > :07:49.proposal to have talks on the exit deal and a future trade deal
:07:50. > :07:52.at the same time. It also mentioned the word
:07:53. > :07:54."security" 11 times and stated a failure to reach agreement
:07:55. > :07:56.would mean cooperation in the fight against crime
:07:57. > :08:00.and terrorism would be weakened. Later, our very own Andrew got
:08:01. > :08:04.to ask her what would happen if Britain left the European
:08:05. > :08:10.policing agency, Europol. We would not be able to access
:08:11. > :08:14.information in the same way as we would as a member,
:08:15. > :08:17.so it is important, I think, we are able to negotiate
:08:18. > :08:19.a continuing relationship that enables us to work together
:08:20. > :08:21.in the way that we have. That night, the
:08:22. > :08:23.Brexiteers were happy. We did not have a Mad
:08:24. > :08:30.Hatter, but now we do. Down the street, even the Remainers,
:08:31. > :08:33.having a Mad Hatters' tea party, I am not sure that is
:08:34. > :08:42.actually Boris, though. The next morning, the papers
:08:43. > :08:57.suggested Theresa May would use security as a bargaining tool
:08:58. > :08:57.and threaten to withdraw the UK's cooperation in this area
:08:58. > :08:58.if no deal was struck. Downing Street denied it,
:08:59. > :08:58.as did the Brexit Secretary. We can both cope, but we
:08:59. > :09:01.will both be worse off. That seems to be a statement
:09:02. > :09:04.of fact, it is not a threat, David Davis had other
:09:05. > :09:07.business that morning, introducing the Great Repeal Bill,
:09:08. > :09:09.outling his plans to transfer all EU law into British
:09:10. > :09:12.law to change later, It is not without its critics
:09:13. > :09:17.but the Brexit Secretary said, among other benefits,
:09:18. > :09:19.it would make trade talks easier As we exit the EU and seek
:09:20. > :09:26.a new deep and special partnership with the European Union,
:09:27. > :09:28.we are doing so from a position where we have the same
:09:29. > :09:30.standards and rules. It will also ensure we deliver
:09:31. > :09:36.on our promise to end the supremacy of European Union law
:09:37. > :09:39.in the UK as we exit. There was, though, a small
:09:40. > :09:46.issue with the name. The Government hit an early hurdle
:09:47. > :09:49.with the Great Repeal Bill. Parliamentary draughtsmen said
:09:50. > :09:51.they were not allowed Great(!)
:09:52. > :09:59.so it is just the Repeal Bill. So far, it had been
:10:00. > :10:01.a tale of two cities. By Friday, there was another,
:10:02. > :10:05.Valletta in Malta, where EU leaders were having a meeting
:10:06. > :10:07.and President Tusk, yes, him again, set out draft guidelines
:10:08. > :10:14.for the EU Brexit strategy. Once, and only once,
:10:15. > :10:17.we have achieved sufficient progress on the withdrawal can we discuss
:10:18. > :10:19.the framework for our Starting parallel talks
:10:20. > :10:23.on all issues at the same time, as suggested by some in the UK,
:10:24. > :10:32.will not happen. The EU 27 does not and will not
:10:33. > :10:36.pursue a punitive approach. Brexit in itself is
:10:37. > :10:43.already punitive enough. The pressure on Theresa May to get
:10:44. > :10:46.the Brexit process going has now gone and the stage is being set
:10:47. > :10:48.elsewhere for the showdown But face-to-face discussions
:10:49. > :10:59.are not likely to happen Before May or early June. No one is
:11:00. > :11:05.celebrating just yet. We're joined now from Kent
:11:06. > :11:13.by the former Conservative The EU says it will not talk about a
:11:14. > :11:16.future relationship with the UK until there has been sufficient
:11:17. > :11:24.progress on agreeing the divorce bill. Should the UK agree to this
:11:25. > :11:30.phased approach? Well, I think you can make too much about the sequence
:11:31. > :11:35.and timing of the negotiations. I assume that it will be a case of
:11:36. > :11:39.nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and so any agreements that
:11:40. > :11:44.might be reached on things talked about early on will be very
:11:45. > :11:49.provisional, so I think you can make a big deal about the timing and the
:11:50. > :11:53.sequence when I do not think it really matters as much as all that.
:11:54. > :11:58.Don't people have a right in this country to be surprised of the talk
:11:59. > :12:01.of a massive multi-billion pound divorce settlement? I do not
:12:02. > :12:09.remember either side making much of this in the referendum, do you? No.
:12:10. > :12:12.A select committee of the House of Lords recently reported and said
:12:13. > :12:19.that there was no legal basis for any exit fee. We will have to see
:12:20. > :12:25.how the negotiations go. I think some of the figures cited so far are
:12:26. > :12:31.wildly out of kilter and wildly unrealistic. We will have to see
:12:32. > :12:35.what happens in the negotiations. As one of your panel commented earlier,
:12:36. > :12:38.there will be lots of hares to pursue over the next couple of years
:12:39. > :12:45.and we should not get too excited about any of them. Would you accept
:12:46. > :12:49.that we make... It may not be anything like the figures Brussels
:12:50. > :12:57.is kicking around of 50, 60 billion euros, do you think we will have to
:12:58. > :13:03.make a one-off settlement? If we get everything else we want, if we get a
:13:04. > :13:09.really good trade deal and access for the City of London and so on,
:13:10. > :13:12.speaking for myself, I would be prepared to make a modest payment.
:13:13. > :13:22.But it all depends on the deal we get. What would modest be? Oh, I
:13:23. > :13:26.cannot give you a figure. We are right at the start of the
:13:27. > :13:32.negotiations. I do not think that would be agreed until near the end.
:13:33. > :13:35.The EU says that if there is a transition period of several years
:13:36. > :13:40.after the negotiations, and there is more talk of that, the UK must
:13:41. > :13:44.remain subject to the free movement of peoples and the jurisdiction of
:13:45. > :13:49.the European Court of Justice, would that be acceptable to you? It
:13:50. > :13:52.depends on the nature of the transitional agreement. We are
:13:53. > :13:59.getting well ahead of ourselves here. You cannot, I think, for any
:14:00. > :14:03.judgment as to whether there should be a transitional stage until you
:14:04. > :14:07.know what the final deal is. If there is to be a final deal. And
:14:08. > :14:15.then you know how long it might take to implement that deal. That is
:14:16. > :14:19.something I think that it is really rather futile to talk about at this
:14:20. > :14:23.stage. It may become relevant, depending on the nature of the deal,
:14:24. > :14:28.and that is the proper time to talk about it and decide what the answer
:14:29. > :14:32.to the questions you pose might be. Except the EU has laid this out in
:14:33. > :14:39.its negotiation mandate and it is reasonable to ask people like
:14:40. > :14:43.yourself, should we accept that? It is reasonable for me to say, they
:14:44. > :14:47.will raise all sorts of things in their negotiating mandate and we do
:14:48. > :14:51.not need to form a view of all of them at this stage. Let me try
:14:52. > :14:54.another one. The EU says if they do agree what you have called a
:14:55. > :15:00.comprehensive free trade deal, we would have to accept EU constraints
:15:01. > :15:07.on state aid and taxes like VAT and corporation tax. Would you accept
:15:08. > :15:12.that? Again, I am not sure quite what they have in mind on that. We
:15:13. > :15:17.will be an independent country when we leave and we will make our own
:15:18. > :15:24.decisions about those matters. Not according to know that -- to the
:15:25. > :15:29.negotiating mandate. As I have said, they can put all sorts of things in
:15:30. > :15:33.the negotiating guidelines, it does not mean we have to agree with them.
:15:34. > :15:39.No doubt that is something we can discuss in the context of a free
:15:40. > :15:42.trade agreement. If we get a free trade agreement, that is very
:15:43. > :15:44.important for them as well as for us, and we can talk about some of
:15:45. > :15:56.the things you have just mentioned. Can you please leave a 20 without
:15:57. > :16:02.having repatriated full control of migration, taxis and the law? I
:16:03. > :16:09.think we will have repatriated all three of those things by the time of
:16:10. > :16:12.the next general election. How high would you rate the chances of no
:16:13. > :16:19.deal, and does that prospect worry you? I think the chances are we will
:16:20. > :16:23.get the deal, and I think the chances are we will get a good deal,
:16:24. > :16:31.because that is in the interests of both sides of this negotiation. But
:16:32. > :16:35.it is not the end of the world if we do not get a deal. Most trade in the
:16:36. > :16:40.world is carried out under World Trade Organisation rules. We would
:16:41. > :16:44.be perfectly OK if we traded with the European Union, as with
:16:45. > :16:48.everybody else, under World Trade Organisation rules. It is better to
:16:49. > :16:53.get the deal, and I think we will get the deal, because it is in the
:16:54. > :16:56.interests of both. Let me ask you about Gibraltar. You have campaigned
:16:57. > :17:01.in Gibraltar when the sovereignty issue came up under the Tony Blair
:17:02. > :17:07.government. The EU says that Spain should have a veto on whether any
:17:08. > :17:12.free-trade deal should apply to the Rock. How should the British
:17:13. > :17:17.government replied to that? As it has responded, by making it
:17:18. > :17:24.absolutely clear that we will stand by Gibraltar. 35 years ago this
:17:25. > :17:27.week, Andrew, another woman Prime Minister Centre task force is
:17:28. > :17:30.halfway across the world to protect another small group of British
:17:31. > :17:36.people against another Spanish-speaking country. I am
:17:37. > :17:40.absolutely clear that our current woman Prime Minister will show the
:17:41. > :17:51.same resolve in relation to Gibraltar as her predecessor did.
:17:52. > :17:53.This is not about Spain invading Gibraltar, it is not even about
:17:54. > :17:56.sovereignty, it is about Spain having a veto over whether any
:17:57. > :17:59.free-trade deal that the UK makes with the EU should also apply to
:18:00. > :18:05.Gibraltar. On that issue, how should the British government respond? The
:18:06. > :18:11.British government should show resolve. It is not in the interests
:18:12. > :18:14.of Spain, really, to interfere with free trade to Gibraltar. 10,000
:18:15. > :18:19.people who live in Spain working Gibraltar. That is a very important
:18:20. > :18:25.Spanish interest, so I am very confident that in the end, we will
:18:26. > :18:29.be able to look after all the interests of Gibraltar, including
:18:30. > :18:30.free trade. Michael Howard, thank you for joining us from Kent this
:18:31. > :18:33.morning. Although sometimes it seems
:18:34. > :18:35.like everyone has forgotten, there are things happening
:18:36. > :18:37.other than Brexit. In less than five weeks' time,
:18:38. > :18:40.there will be a round of important domestic elections and there's a lot
:18:41. > :18:43.up for grabs. Local elections take place
:18:44. > :18:46.on the 4th of May in England, In England, there are elections
:18:47. > :18:51.in 34 councils, with 2,370 The majority are county councils,
:18:52. > :18:57.usually areas of strength Large cities where Labour usually
:18:58. > :19:04.fares better are not Six regions of England will also
:19:05. > :19:08.hold elections for newly created combined authority mayors,
:19:09. > :19:11.and there will be contests for directly elected mayors,
:19:12. > :19:17.with voters in Manchester, Liverpool and the West Midlands
:19:18. > :19:20.among those going to the polls. In Scotland, every seat in all 32
:19:21. > :19:23.councils are being contested, many of them affected
:19:24. > :19:25.by boundary changes. Since these seats were last
:19:26. > :19:28.contested, Labour lost all but one Meanwhile, every seat in each
:19:29. > :19:33.of Wales' 22 councils All but one was last elected
:19:34. > :19:40.in 2012 in what was a very strong year for Labour,
:19:41. > :19:41.though independent candidates currently hold
:19:42. > :19:44.a quarter of council seats. According to the latest
:19:45. > :19:45.calculations by Plymouth University Election Centre,
:19:46. > :19:51.the Tories are predicted to increase their tally by 50 seats,
:19:52. > :19:54.despite being in government, But the dramatic story in England
:19:55. > :20:00.looks to be with the other parties, with the Lib-Dems possibly winning
:20:01. > :20:02.100 seats, while Ukip could be seeing a fall,
:20:03. > :20:08.predicted to lose 100 seats. Though the proportional system
:20:09. > :20:10.usually makes big changes less likely in Scotland,
:20:11. > :20:13.the SNP is predicted to increase both the number of seats
:20:14. > :20:15.they hold, and the number In Wales, Labour is defending a high
:20:16. > :20:24.water mark in support. Last year's Welsh Assembly elections
:20:25. > :20:27.suggest the only way is down, with all the parties making modest
:20:28. > :20:29.gains at Labour's expense. Joining me now is the BBC's
:20:30. > :20:32.very own elections guru, Professor John Curtice
:20:33. > :20:39.of the University of Strathclyde. Good to see you again. Let's start
:20:40. > :20:44.with England. How bad are the selection is going to be for Labour?
:20:45. > :20:48.Labourer not defending a great deal because this is for the most part
:20:49. > :20:52.rural England. The only control three of the council they are
:20:53. > :20:58.defending and they are only defending around 500 seats, I nearly
:20:59. > :21:01.a quarter are in one county, Durham. Labour's position in the opinion
:21:02. > :21:05.polls is weakened over the last 12 months and if you compare the
:21:06. > :21:17.position in the opinion polls now with where they were in the spring
:21:18. > :21:19.of 2013 when these seats in England were last fought, we are talking
:21:20. > :21:21.about a 12 point swing from Labour to conservative. The estimate of 50
:21:22. > :21:25.losses may be somewhat optimistic for Labour. Of the three council
:21:26. > :21:29.areas they control, two of them, Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire,
:21:30. > :21:33.could be lost, leaving labourer with virtually a duck as far as council
:21:34. > :21:37.control is concerned in these elections in England. In England,
:21:38. > :21:41.what would a Liberal Democrat reserve urgently great? That is the
:21:42. > :21:45.big question. We have had this picture since the EU referendum of
:21:46. > :21:48.the Liberal Democrats doing extraordinarily well in some local
:21:49. > :21:56.by-elections, gaining seats that they had not even fought before, and
:21:57. > :21:59.in other areas, doing no more than treading water. We are expecting a
:22:00. > :22:03.Liberal Democrat skin because the lost the lot -- the lost lots of
:22:04. > :22:06.ground when they were in coalition with the Conservatives. It is
:22:07. > :22:11.uncertain. A patchy performance may well be to their advantage. If they
:22:12. > :22:14.do well in some places and gain seats, and elsewhere do not do
:22:15. > :22:18.terribly well and do not waste votes, they may end up doing
:22:19. > :22:23.relatively well in seats, even if the overall gaining votes is likely
:22:24. > :22:54.to be modest. The elections for mayors, they are taking place in
:22:55. > :22:57.the Labour will that be a hefty consolation prize for the Labour
:22:58. > :22:59.Party? It ought to be, on Teesside, Merseyside, Greater Manchester. We
:23:00. > :23:02.are looking at one content very closely, that is the contest for the
:23:03. > :23:05.mayor of the West Midlands. If you look at what happened in the general
:23:06. > :23:07.election in 2015, labourer work nine points ahead of the Conservatives in
:23:08. > :23:10.the West Midlands. If you look at the swing since the general
:23:11. > :23:12.election, if you add that swing to where we were two years ago, the
:23:13. > :23:15.West Midlands now looks like a draw. Labour have to worry about a
:23:16. > :23:17.headline grabbing loss, and the West Midlands contest. If they were to
:23:18. > :23:19.lose, that wooden crate -- that would increase the pressure for
:23:20. > :23:23.their own Jeremy Corbyn to convince people that they can turn his
:23:24. > :23:29.party's fortunes around, and in truth at the moment, they are pretty
:23:30. > :23:32.dire. The West Midlands has Birmingham as its heart.
:23:33. > :23:38.Chock-a-block with marginal seats. It always has been. I always
:23:39. > :23:45.remember election night and marginal seats in the West Midlands.
:23:46. > :23:50.Scotland, the SNP is assaulting Labour's last remaining power base.
:23:51. > :23:56.The biggest prizes Glasgow. Will it take it, the SNP? Whether the SNP
:23:57. > :23:59.will gain control of Glasgow is uncertain. If you look at what is
:24:00. > :24:04.happening in local government by-elections let alone the opinion
:24:05. > :24:08.polls, in 2012, when these seats were last fought, Labour did
:24:09. > :24:13.relatively well, only one percentage point behind the SNP who were rather
:24:14. > :24:17.disappointed with the result compared to other elections. No sign
:24:18. > :24:25.of that happening this time alone -- this time around. Polls put the SNP
:24:26. > :24:28.ahead. By-elections have found the SNP advancing and Labour dropping by
:24:29. > :24:32.double digits. Labour are going to lose everything they currently
:24:33. > :24:36.control in Scotland, the SNP will become the dominant party, the
:24:37. > :24:40.question is how well they do. In Scotland there is a Conservative
:24:41. > :24:45.revival going on. The Conservatives did well in recent local government
:24:46. > :24:49.by-elections. At the moment, Labour are expected to come third north of
:24:50. > :24:55.the border in the local elections, repeating the third they suffered in
:24:56. > :24:58.the Holyrood elections last year. In Wales, Labour is expecting to lose
:24:59. > :25:04.control of a number of councils. They are the main party in 12 of 22
:25:05. > :25:08.local authorities. How bad could it be? We're expecting Labour to lose
:25:09. > :25:13.ground. In the opinion polls when these seats were last fought,
:25:14. > :25:18.labourer in the high 40s. Now they are not much above 30%. Cardiff
:25:19. > :25:23.could well join Glasgow was no longer being a Labour stronghold.
:25:24. > :25:26.Look out for Newport. Some of the South Wales councils that Labour
:25:27. > :25:42.control, Labour is probably too but occasionally, Plaid
:25:43. > :25:44.Cymru surprises in this area. They managed to win the Rhondda seat in
:25:45. > :25:46.the assembly elections. Jeremy Corbyn has said he wants to be
:25:47. > :25:49.judged on proper elections, council elections as opposed to opinion
:25:50. > :25:52.polls, but even if he does as badly as John has been suggesting, does it
:25:53. > :25:59.affect his leadership? I think it does on two counts. It will affect
:26:00. > :26:02.his own confidence. Anyone who is a human being will be affected by
:26:03. > :26:07.this. He might go into his office and be told by John McDonnell and
:26:08. > :26:13.others, stand firm, it is all right, but it will affect his confidence
:26:14. > :26:18.and inevitably it contributes to a sense that this is moving to some
:26:19. > :26:22.kind of denoument, at some point. In other words, while I understand the
:26:23. > :26:29.argument that he has won twice in a leadership contest, well, within 12
:26:30. > :26:36.months, I wonder whether this can carry on in a fixed term parliament,
:26:37. > :26:40.up until 2020, if it were to do so. On two France, it will have some
:26:41. > :26:46.impact. I am not seeing it will lead to his immediate departure, it will
:26:47. > :26:52.mark, but if these things are as devastating as John suggests, it
:26:53. > :26:57.will have an impact. Tom, I'll be looking at a Lib Dem fightback? That
:26:58. > :27:02.is the $64,000 question. It would seem that we should be. One massive
:27:03. > :27:06.reason we're not having a general election a time soon, apart from the
:27:07. > :27:09.fact that Theresa May does not believe in these things, she
:27:10. > :27:14.believes in pressing on, it is because Tory MPs in the South West
:27:15. > :27:16.who took the Lib Dem seats, they were telling Number 10 they were
:27:17. > :27:21.worried they were going to lose their seats back to the Lib Dems.
:27:22. > :27:25.The Lib Dems never went away and local government. They have got
:27:26. > :27:30.other campaigners and activists. It looks credible that they will be the
:27:31. > :27:34.success story of the whole thing. Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, he says
:27:35. > :27:41.this will be the most difficult local elections his party will face
:27:42. > :27:46.before 2020. A bit of management of expectations. It is unlikely to be a
:27:47. > :27:51.good time for Ukip. They are right to manage expectations. The results
:27:52. > :28:12.will be horrible for Ukip. I agree with Tom about the Lib Dem
:28:13. > :28:15.threat to the Tories. Talking to some senior figures within the Tory
:28:16. > :28:17.party earlier this week, I was picking up that they are worried
:28:18. > :28:20.about 30-40 general election seeds being vulnerable to the Lib Dems
:28:21. > :28:22.because of the Labour collapse. I would normally agree with Steve
:28:23. > :28:24.about the resilience of politicians, the capability of withstanding
:28:25. > :28:27.repeated blows, but Jeremy Corbyn is not in the normal category. I think
:28:28. > :28:29.he is, in the sense that although he get solace from winning leadership
:28:30. > :28:34.contest, anyone who leads a party into the kind of, it is not going to
:28:35. > :28:39.be that vivid, because they are not defending the key seats. If they
:28:40. > :28:45.were to win Birmingham, say, and get slaughtered by the SNP in Scotland,
:28:46. > :28:49.it will undermine what is already a fairly ambiguous sense of
:28:50. > :28:51.self-confidence. We need to leave it there. Thank you, John Curtice.
:28:52. > :28:54.Well, with those elections on the horizon, is Labour where it
:28:55. > :28:57.Former leader Ed Miliband was on the Andrew
:28:58. > :28:59.Marr Show earlier and he explained the challenge Labour faces
:29:00. > :29:04.It is easier for other parties, if you are the Greens or the
:29:05. > :29:06.Liberal Democrats you're essentially fishing in the 48% pool.
:29:07. > :29:10.If you are Ukip, you are fishing in the 52% pool.
:29:11. > :29:12.Labour is trying to do something much harder,
:29:13. > :29:14.which is to try and speak for the whole country,
:29:15. > :29:17.and by the way, that is another part of
:29:18. > :29:21.Our attack on Theresa May, part of it is she's
:29:22. > :29:27.Ignoring the verdict going into this, saying,
:29:28. > :29:29.let's overturn it, looks like ignoring the 52%.
:29:30. > :29:35.By the way, there is more that unites Remainers
:29:36. > :29:37.and Leavers than might first appear, because they share common
:29:38. > :29:42.concerns about the way the country is run.
:29:43. > :29:47.Joining me now is the Shadow Health Secretary, Jon Ashworth.
:29:48. > :29:52.Welcome to the programme. Alastair Campbell told me on the BBC on
:29:53. > :29:57.Thursday that he is fighting to reverse the referendum result. Ed
:29:58. > :30:03.Miliband says that Remain needs to accept the result, come to terms
:30:04. > :30:08.with it. Who is right? We have to accept the referendum result. I
:30:09. > :30:12.campaigned passionately to remain in the European Union. The city I
:30:13. > :30:16.represent, Leicester, voted narrowly to remain in the European Union.
:30:17. > :30:21.Sadly the country did not. We cannot overturn that and be like kinky
:30:22. > :30:26.nude, trying to demand the tide go back out. We have to accept this
:30:27. > :30:34.democratic process. We all voted to have a referendum when the relevant
:30:35. > :30:42.legislation came to Parliament. How bad will the local elections before
:30:43. > :30:48.Labour? Let us see where we get to on election night when I am sure I
:30:49. > :30:57.will be invited on to one of these types of programmes... The election
:30:58. > :31:00.date, the following day. But it does look like you will lose seats across
:31:01. > :31:06.the board in England, Scotland and Wales. What did you make of what
:31:07. > :31:10.Steve Richards said about the impact on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? We
:31:11. > :31:18.have to win seats, we cannot fall back on the scales suggested. No,
:31:19. > :31:24.your package was right, it tends to be Tory areas, but generally, we
:31:25. > :31:28.have to be winning in Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, those
:31:29. > :31:32.types of places because they contain a lot of the marginal constituencies
:31:33. > :31:38.that decide general elections. The important places in the elections
:31:39. > :31:45.are towns like Beeston, towns you have not heard of, but they are
:31:46. > :31:49.marginal towns in marginal swing constituencies. We have to do well
:31:50. > :31:52.in them. We will see where we are on election night but my pretty is to
:31:53. > :32:00.campaign hard in these areas over the next few weeks. Even people who
:32:01. > :32:06.voted Labour in 2015, they prefer Theresa May to Mr Corbyn as Prime
:32:07. > :32:11.Minister, a recent poll said. Isn't that extraordinary? I have not seen
:32:12. > :32:18.that. I will look it up. It was you Government. -- YouGov. It is
:32:19. > :32:23.important we win the trust of people. You are not winning the
:32:24. > :32:30.trust of people who voted for you in 2015. We have to hold onto people
:32:31. > :32:34.who voted for us in 2015 and we have to persuade people who voted for
:32:35. > :32:38.other parties to come to us. One of the criticisms I have of the debate
:32:39. > :32:43.that goes on in the wider Labour Party, do not misunderstand me, I am
:32:44. > :32:47.not making a criticism about an individual, but the debate you see
:32:48. > :32:53.online suggests that if you want to get people who voted Conservative to
:32:54. > :32:57.switch to Labour it is somehow a betrayal of our principles, it was
:32:58. > :33:03.not. Justin Trudeau said Conservative voters are our
:33:04. > :33:08.neighbours, our relatives. We have to persuade people to switch from
:33:09. > :33:15.voting Conservative to voting Labour as well as increasing our vote among
:33:16. > :33:20.nonvoters and Greens. It seems like you have a mountain to climb and the
:33:21. > :33:26.mountain is Everest. Another poll, I am not sure if you have seen this,
:33:27. > :33:36.in London, the Bastian of Labour, the Bastian of Remain, Mr Corbyn is
:33:37. > :33:41.less popular than even Ukip's Paul Nuttall. That is beyond
:33:42. > :33:45.extraordinary! I do not know about that. The most recent set of
:33:46. > :33:51.elections in London was the mayoral election where the Labour candidate
:33:52. > :33:58.city: won handsomely. He took the seat of a conservative. We took that
:33:59. > :34:10.of a conservative. It was a year ago. We did well then. You had an
:34:11. > :34:13.anti-Jeremy Corbyn candidate. I think he nominated Jeremy Corbyn,
:34:14. > :34:17.from memory. We have not got elections in London but our
:34:18. > :34:28.elections are in the county areas and the various mayoral elections...
:34:29. > :34:32.What about the West Midlands? In any normal year, mid-term, as the
:34:33. > :34:38.opposition, Labour should win the West Midlands. John Curtis says it
:34:39. > :34:42.is nip and tuck. It has always been a swing region but we want to do
:34:43. > :34:49.well, of course. We want to turn out a strong Labour vote in Dudley,
:34:50. > :34:55.Northampton, those sorts of places. They are key constituencies in the
:34:56. > :35:00.general election. Does Labour look like a government in waiting to you?
:35:01. > :35:05.What I would say is contrast where we are to what the conservative
:35:06. > :35:09.garment is doing. I asked you about Labour, you do not get to tell me
:35:10. > :35:14.about the Conservatives. Does it look like a government in waiting to
:35:15. > :35:18.you? Today we are exposing the Conservatives... Reminding people
:35:19. > :35:23.the Conservatives are breaking the pledge on waiting times of 18 weeks
:35:24. > :35:29.so lots of elderly people waiting longer in pain for hip replacements
:35:30. > :35:32.and cataract replacements. Yesterday the Housing spokesperson John Healey
:35:33. > :35:37.was exposing the shortcomings in the Help to Buy scheme. The education
:35:38. > :35:41.spokesperson has been campaigning hard against the cuts to schools.
:35:42. > :35:46.Tom Watson has been campaigning hard against some of the changes the
:35:47. > :35:50.Government want to introduce in culture. The Shadow Cabinet are
:35:51. > :35:55.working hard to hold the Government's feet to the fire. Does
:35:56. > :36:01.it look like a government in waiting? Yes. It took you three
:36:02. > :36:05.times! There is a social care crisis, schools funding issue, a
:36:06. > :36:10.huge issue for lots of areas, the NHS has just got through the winter
:36:11. > :36:18.and is abandoning many of its targets. You are 18 points behind in
:36:19. > :36:24.the polls. We have to work harder. What can you do? The opinion polls
:36:25. > :36:29.are challenging but we are a great Social Democratic Party of
:36:30. > :36:32.government. On Twitter today, lots of Labour activists celebrating that
:36:33. > :36:36.the national minimum wage has been in place for something like 16 years
:36:37. > :36:42.because we were in government. Look of the sweeping progressive changes
:36:43. > :36:47.this country has benefited from, the NHS, sure start centres, an assault
:36:48. > :36:51.on child poverty, the Labour Party got itself in contention for
:36:52. > :36:56.government. I entirely accept the polls do not make thrilling reading
:36:57. > :36:59.for Labour politicians on Sunday morning, but it means people like me
:37:00. > :37:03.have to work harder because we are part of something bigger than an
:37:04. > :37:06.individual, we are in the business of changing things for the British
:37:07. > :37:10.people and if we do not do that, if we do not focus on that, we are
:37:11. > :37:18.letting people down. Is Labour preparing for an early election
:37:19. > :37:23.question Billy burqa? Reports in the press of a war chest as macro for an
:37:24. > :37:27.early election? The general election coordinator called for a general
:37:28. > :37:30.election when Theresa May became Prime Minister. We are investing in
:37:31. > :37:36.staff and the organisational capability we need. By the way, the
:37:37. > :37:41.Labour Party staff do brilliant work. A bit of nonsense on Twitter
:37:42. > :37:44.having a go at them. They do tremendous work. Whenever the
:37:45. > :37:53.election comes, they will be ready. Jon Ashworth, thank you.
:37:54. > :38:05.Hello, welcome to Sunday Politics East.
:38:06. > :38:13.Politicians take to the streets in the fight for your vote
:38:14. > :38:22.Here with me today, Vicky Ford, Conservative member
:38:23. > :38:24.And Gavin Shuker, Labour MP from Luton South.
:38:25. > :38:28.This week, the Government formally told the EU we are leaving.
:38:29. > :38:31.The EU told the Government the divorce must come
:38:32. > :38:36.Whether you see it as an opportunity or a disaster, we now have two years
:38:37. > :38:42.MEPs from this region will be on the front line,
:38:43. > :38:45.and have spent the last few months in unofficial talks.
:38:46. > :38:56.Andrew Sinclair has been to Brussels to see how they rate our chances.
:38:57. > :39:03.At the European Parliament, there is a real sense of anticipation.
:39:04. > :39:06.Everyone here knows that life is about to change.
:39:07. > :39:10.Well, I'm really worried about people's jobs
:39:11. > :39:17.After a lot of threats, we're hearing actually some real
:39:18. > :39:22.I think there's an awful, awful lot of water to go
:39:23. > :39:27.There's a huge amount of devil in the detail.
:39:28. > :39:31.My pint, the imperial pint, is always half full.
:39:32. > :39:34.To meet expectations, and our point, frustration...
:39:35. > :39:39.In the public gallery, a group from the Eastern Region
:39:40. > :39:43.has come along to watch the European Parliament in action.
:39:44. > :39:46.People remain remarkably uninformed about perhaps the actual day-to-day
:39:47. > :39:48.business that goes on here, and everything that gets done
:39:49. > :39:51.in the spirit of corporation within the European Union.
:39:52. > :39:56.It's been a pleasure to actually see these things going on.
:39:57. > :40:00.I really hope they make the best of it and I really hope that we can
:40:01. > :40:01.sort out trade agreements with different countries
:40:02. > :40:04.and still have a fairly good relationship with those in Europe.
:40:05. > :40:09.It's going to take a long time before we are in a position to sort
:40:10. > :40:12.It's not like the House of Commons...
:40:13. > :40:17.The visitors were being hosted by the Eastern Region MEP
:40:18. > :40:19.Alex Mayer, who knows that she will be out
:40:20. > :40:23.A Remain supporter, she accepts that Brexit must happen,
:40:24. > :40:28.Her fear is that the negotiations will be very complicated.
:40:29. > :40:31.Every different company I talk to, every different sector I talk to,
:40:32. > :40:34.tells me about yet another Brexit problem, perhaps one that
:40:35. > :40:37.I hadn't sort of thought about or heard about before.
:40:38. > :40:39.So, you know, it might be about regulatory
:40:40. > :40:44.It might be about science and research, agriculture
:40:45. > :40:50.Every different place you go to tells you their own Brexit problem.
:40:51. > :40:54.It is a view that you hear expressed a lot in the corridors -
:40:55. > :40:56.that the forthcoming negotiations will be complex and tough.
:40:57. > :41:02.David Campbell Bannerman, a key member of the Leave campaign,
:41:03. > :41:04.says he is becoming more and more confident that we'll
:41:05. > :41:10.We're following the guidelines set by the World Trade Organisation
:41:11. > :41:16.And I think we can keep it pretty straightforward.
:41:17. > :41:20.That's taken seven years, and that was supposed
:41:21. > :41:24.Well, it has taken seven years, but, you know, only three
:41:25. > :41:28.Two years were wasted on human rights, two years on investor
:41:29. > :41:34.We start from a very different place.
:41:35. > :41:37.We are a member of the EU, we have no tariffs, no quotas.
:41:38. > :41:42.The Brexit negotiations will be overseen by the European Commission,
:41:43. > :41:44.which is just down the road from here.
:41:45. > :41:47.This place, the European Parliament, will officially have very
:41:48. > :41:54.But European politics is all about behind-the-scenes lobbying,
:41:55. > :41:56.establishing positions, trying to persuade negotiators
:41:57. > :42:02.what's important to a certain country or region.
:42:03. > :42:04.The global brand of this, Cambridge, is so important
:42:05. > :42:10.So, the East of England office in Brussels has organised dozens
:42:11. > :42:13.of meetings and lobbying sessions to brief European officials
:42:14. > :42:15.and other parliamentarians about what's important
:42:16. > :42:21.It's about making sure that we speak very loudly and very clear
:42:22. > :42:26.Those negotiating stages, when they're going on,
:42:27. > :42:28.to have a clear message from all of us, business,
:42:29. > :42:36.politicians, the movement of people and goods,
:42:37. > :42:45.for workers who need to come here, particularly
:42:46. > :42:48.And a trade deal which won't hurt local businesses,
:42:49. > :42:50.particularly food production, science and the
:42:51. > :42:54.We do need to have a specific relationship for the UK, one that
:42:55. > :43:04.I think we're making good progress so far.
:43:05. > :43:06.Now the negotiations are about to get really serious,
:43:07. > :43:09.so we have a short window to deliver it.
:43:10. > :43:12.Now, many of our MPs in this region have argued long
:43:13. > :43:17.None more so than Peter Bone, the MP for Wellingborough.
:43:18. > :43:20.He was a founding member of the grassroots Out movement,
:43:21. > :43:28.I've been working at this all my political life, as some
:43:29. > :43:32.And thanks to the British people, and thanks to our democratic
:43:33. > :43:37.process, we are now coming out of the EU.
:43:38. > :43:40.There's no turning back now, and I'm looking forward
:43:41. > :43:46.to a very exciting time over the next three years.
:43:47. > :43:49.As far as the letter from Theresa May to the European Union
:43:50. > :43:51.is concerned, did it contain all of the things that
:43:52. > :43:56.I mean, to be honest it could have just said,
:43:57. > :43:59."Dear European Union, we're coming out, goodbye."
:44:00. > :44:01.That would have worked for me as well!
:44:02. > :44:05.But you know how governments like to make it into a 6-page letter
:44:06. > :44:07.when they could have done it in one paragraph.
:44:08. > :44:11.The thing is, we're coming out, we hold all the cards,
:44:12. > :44:16.they have a ?60 billion trade surplus with us.
:44:17. > :44:19.They want to do a deal with us much more than we need
:44:20. > :44:23.And all of this huffing and puffing in the European Union
:44:24. > :44:26.is for the politics of the European elite.
:44:27. > :44:28.When they get down to business, the directors of Mercedes-Benz
:44:29. > :44:32.and BMW will go around to the German Chancellor and say,
:44:33. > :44:35.for goodness sake, you've got to get a free trade deal
:44:36. > :44:37.with the United Kingdom, because it's in our interests
:44:38. > :44:43.How do you think people will see any difference in this region over
:44:44. > :44:50.Well, the thing is, the economy here is doing remarkably well.
:44:51. > :44:55.And, as you will know, unemployment now, in our area,
:44:56. > :44:59.hasn't been so low since actually when Harold Wilson had
:45:00. > :45:07.So basically since 1975, we have been in the European Union,
:45:08. > :45:12.And now we're coming out, it's going down.
:45:13. > :45:15.I think it's very good for local industry.
:45:16. > :45:18.We've got lots of local small businesses -
:45:19. > :45:22.And that's going to be very good news for them,
:45:23. > :45:24.because we're going to be exporting around the world.
:45:25. > :45:27.We're not going to be hampered by EU trade restrictions.
:45:28. > :45:28.We're going to be able to control immigration.
:45:29. > :45:31.We're going to let people come into this country
:45:32. > :45:33.that we want in this country, but exclude those we don't want,
:45:34. > :45:37.which, one of the biggest, you know, bugbears in our area has been
:45:38. > :45:41.Not the people who are here, but the fact that so many are coming
:45:42. > :45:44.in, and we're going to be able to deal with that.
:45:45. > :45:47.You will know that close to 400,000 people have their jobs linked
:45:48. > :45:55.Well, that's right, and we going to have more people,
:45:56. > :45:57.we're going to have more jobs and more business.
:45:58. > :46:04.I would say the EU has held us back, has held back our economy.
:46:05. > :46:07.And coming out of what actually in relative terms is a shrinking
:46:08. > :46:12.What we want to do is to be able to trade freely
:46:13. > :46:17.with the European Union, but also trade across the globe.
:46:18. > :46:20.So if you are making something in this country that you've been
:46:21. > :46:23.exporting to the European Union, why not now export it to India?
:46:24. > :46:26.You can't at the moment, because the EU sort
:46:27. > :46:31.So it's a very exciting time for businesses in this area,
:46:32. > :46:34.especially those that want to export.
:46:35. > :46:38.Over the next year, what do you hope will have been achieved?
:46:39. > :46:41.Do you hope that we can get an agreement say on those people
:46:42. > :46:44.who are living here and working here but are European by birth?
:46:45. > :46:48.First of all, I think we should be able to do the whole of the Brexit
:46:49. > :46:54.I mean, people say two years because it says in the treaty that
:46:55. > :46:57.if you don't complete a deal within two years then you are out.
:46:58. > :47:00.Well, the founding fathers of the European Union thought
:47:01. > :47:02.if anybody wanted to leave a deal would be done much
:47:03. > :47:06.So I think it will be done much quicker.
:47:07. > :47:09.I think the first thing we need to do on the agenda is say that
:47:10. > :47:11.European Union citizens who have lived in this country
:47:12. > :47:14.at the 23rd of June, the referendum date,
:47:15. > :47:18.The Prime Minister is also right to say, of course,
:47:19. > :47:21.the similar has got to be said for our citizens abroad.
:47:22. > :47:24.And I think that should be the first thing we deal with.
:47:25. > :47:28.In fact, I'm not sure why the European Union, some countries
:47:29. > :47:30.in the European Union, aren't agreeing to it now.
:47:31. > :47:36.Vicky Ford, I mean, from your experience
:47:37. > :47:39.in the European Parliament - he says they want to deal with us
:47:40. > :47:46.I think that's a bit over-simplistic, OK?
:47:47. > :47:48.From my experience in the European Parliament, though,
:47:49. > :47:53.the majority of centrist European Parliament,
:47:54. > :47:55.from centre-right, centre-left, want to find that long-term
:47:56. > :48:01.They want to keep this amicable, and they want to have a close
:48:02. > :48:04.relationship between the UK and EU going forward.
:48:05. > :48:06.So actually there's quite a lot of meeting of minds
:48:07. > :48:11.between what the Prime Minister sees as we are leaving the EU,
:48:12. > :48:14.but we want to continue to work in many areas and have a new trade
:48:15. > :48:18.deal, have a new security cooperation, between what she is
:48:19. > :48:23.asking for and what many in Europe also want to achieve.
:48:24. > :48:26.So there is a lot, but as I said, there's a lot of detail
:48:27. > :48:31.Gavin Shuker, you were shaking your head a few times during that.
:48:32. > :48:35.Unemployment was one thing that made you, that smile.
:48:36. > :48:38.Actually, the fact that we are leaving the EU,
:48:39. > :48:41.although we haven't actually left it yet is not the reason why
:48:42. > :48:44.I just don't think the evidence backs it up...
:48:45. > :48:46.It is the strong Conservative Government that is bringing
:48:47. > :48:51.Well, it is the flexible labour markets and the fact that we have
:48:52. > :48:53.got more and more people in insecure work.
:48:54. > :48:55.But one for another day, because this week has
:48:56. > :48:59.The Tories have put forward their proposals of the kind of deal
:49:00. > :49:02.Europe has said what it will live with.
:49:03. > :49:05.There is one lesson from it - the Tory set of proposals
:49:06. > :49:08.of what they can live with are very close and very restrictive.
:49:09. > :49:11.And they are going to hurt all of the issues you talked
:49:12. > :49:16.about just that, whether it employs, freedom of movement or of goods
:49:17. > :49:18.and services, the things that actually make the economy
:49:19. > :49:20.in the east of England quite strong at the moment.
:49:21. > :49:23.And I'm afraid I think Peter is going to discover that just
:49:24. > :49:26.because you want something to be true doesn't make it so.
:49:27. > :49:29.I think there's a lot of people across Europe,
:49:30. > :49:32.and I'm still very involved in the negotiations on the single
:49:33. > :49:35.market, and we want to be able to sell into that market
:49:36. > :49:37.after we leave, and I have had many colleagues with leading MEPs
:49:38. > :49:41.from across all of the different countries who also want
:49:42. > :49:44.to have that sort of trade agreement going forward.
:49:45. > :49:47.There are issues that we need to agree quite quickly.
:49:48. > :49:51.For example, an citizens's rights, where our colleagues in Europe
:49:52. > :49:54.want to agree an citizens rights and so do we.
:49:55. > :49:56.We should be able to agree the principles
:49:57. > :50:05.And then leave some of the detail for the longer legal discussions.
:50:06. > :50:08.It's important we agree those issues in principle fast,
:50:09. > :50:11.so that we can then move on to talk about the trade agreement.
:50:12. > :50:14.And, as you said, issues like science and research
:50:15. > :50:23.Issues like food and farming, very important for the use of England.
:50:24. > :50:28.There's actually a huge amount of work that needs to happen back
:50:29. > :50:30.in Westminster on this Great Repeal Bill as well,
:50:31. > :50:32.which again the white paper on that was published this week.
:50:33. > :50:35.And there's a lot of our legislation which is governed by EU law,
:50:36. > :50:38.but then we need to make sure it works afterwards.
:50:39. > :50:41.So for example, if you are a bank at the moment, you have
:50:42. > :50:48.You report to them, and we need to make sure that
:50:49. > :50:52.So we need to just get it all right in British law.
:50:53. > :50:56.So do you agree basically on what Vicky Ford is saying here?
:50:57. > :51:01.In terms of the complexity of the negotiations, absolutely.
:51:02. > :51:04.I was in the States this week looking at the future
:51:05. > :51:11.Bit of an obscure subject, but actually it's about keeping
:51:12. > :51:23.We do that on a European level at the moment.
:51:24. > :51:28.We are going to come out in 2019, and we don't know what replaces it.
:51:29. > :51:31.If we don't have that, it's not a case of copy and pasting
:51:32. > :51:33.from the existing law, you need a process, you need
:51:34. > :51:35.an institution that does it, you need scientists.
:51:36. > :51:38.All of that funnily enough is going to be more expensive
:51:39. > :51:40.after we leave the EU rather than less, and it's
:51:41. > :51:42.going to make compliance costs for businesses
:51:43. > :51:46.So it kind of begs the question, what are we doing this for?
:51:47. > :51:49.And I'm apologetic about the fact that it is complex, but it is.
:51:50. > :51:52.There are about 90 of these different areas that we're
:51:53. > :51:56.What are we doing it for, that is no longer the question.
:51:57. > :52:02.We are leaving the European Union, but the terms by which we leave
:52:03. > :52:05.and what we want at the end is the Prime Minister's gift.
:52:06. > :52:08.She has chosen a Hard Brexit that is going to hurt us.
:52:09. > :52:10.Well, no, actually, if you look at the detail
:52:11. > :52:13.which was in the Prime Minister's letter on things like product
:52:14. > :52:14.standards, that you've just mentioned, she has
:52:15. > :52:18.British businesses selling into Europe will need to continue
:52:19. > :52:20.So giving businesses those types of certainty.
:52:21. > :52:23.And indeed I was with East of England businesses just
:52:24. > :52:28.But that's why we've spent seven months preparing
:52:29. > :52:31.OK, let's move away from Brexit and talk about the local elections,
:52:32. > :52:37.Elections will be held in Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex, Cambridge,
:52:38. > :52:45.All are run by the Conservatives, with the exception of Cambridge,
:52:46. > :52:55.Norfolk and Suffolk, which ring though overall control.
:52:56. > :52:59.There are no elections in Bedfordshire, which has three
:53:00. > :53:02.Among other things, county councils from social care,
:53:03. > :53:03.education, transport, planning, the fire
:53:04. > :53:08.Labour believe they have a strong record on delivering services.
:53:09. > :53:13.We've got a good story to tell about Labour running
:53:14. > :53:20.When we speak to people, really what they want to talk
:53:21. > :53:25.The fact that their roads are full of potholes,
:53:26. > :53:28.the park and ride has been shut, the Fire Service has been cut,
:53:29. > :53:32.It's the local things that people are interested in, and that's
:53:33. > :53:36.The Conservatives want to keep tight control on the purse strings.
:53:37. > :53:38.We're standing on a platform that we are very prudent.
:53:39. > :53:41.We recognise that it is people's hard earned money that we collect
:53:42. > :53:44.in council tax, and we're very careful about how we spent that.
:53:45. > :53:47.But at the same time, we're really clear that prioritise
:53:48. > :53:54.children's and adult's social services to protect
:53:55. > :53:58.And what we actually are saying to people is that front line
:53:59. > :54:00.services are best protected by having a sustainable council
:54:01. > :54:03.that is very careful about how it goes about its business.
:54:04. > :54:05.And that's the message that we're putting out on the doorstep.
:54:06. > :54:07.Ukip still believe they offer an alternative.
:54:08. > :54:10.It doesn't seem to matter whether it is red, yellow
:54:11. > :54:12.or blue, it is just carries on as it's always did.
:54:13. > :54:14.And Ukip are offering something different.
:54:15. > :54:16.We don't operate a whip system, we're much more localised
:54:17. > :54:23.And actually we've proved to be quite good at it.
:54:24. > :54:27.Where we have Ukip councils, we are actually effective.
:54:28. > :54:30.The Lib Dems hope Brexit has strengthened their support.
:54:31. > :54:33.A lot of people have got involved right across the East
:54:34. > :54:37.of England on the back of the referendum result.
:54:38. > :54:41.People see that the Conservative Brexit government is putting
:54:42. > :54:45.millions of jobs at risk, and they want to stand
:54:46. > :54:55.And the Green Party fighting for investment in public transport
:54:56. > :54:57.We have got question marks about considerable
:54:58. > :54:59.amounts of road-building, which we consider unnecessary,
:55:00. > :55:02.especially as it means that we are starving other forms
:55:03. > :55:05.of transport from the funds that they really need,
:55:06. > :55:07.whether that be bus services, whether that be our railways.
:55:08. > :55:09.And it's interesting that whenever we talk about road-building,
:55:10. > :55:16.Why don't we invest in our buses as well?
:55:17. > :55:18.And that's something which I think is very popular
:55:19. > :55:23.Gavin Shuker, that's a Labour policy, isn't it?
:55:24. > :55:26.There's plenty of Labour policies being implemented at a local level.
:55:27. > :55:29.Of course, at Westminster level it's more tricky moment.
:55:30. > :55:37.But the Greens are parking their tanks with your lawn,
:55:38. > :55:39.or are you parking your tanks on their lawn?
:55:40. > :55:41.I think politics at the moment is pretty the brow.
:55:42. > :55:50.We know for example that when these seats were fought four years
:55:51. > :55:53.ago, Labour were in a stronger position in the polls
:55:54. > :55:56.Now, that inevitably involves some Labour voters looking to vote
:55:57. > :56:01.My hope is that however people vote this time around that we don't see
:56:02. > :56:03.a large number of votes going to the Conservatives
:56:04. > :56:05.and strengthening their hold at the moment, not least
:56:06. > :56:07.of all because I think without meaningful opposition
:56:08. > :56:09.in Westminster and actually in local government, governments
:56:10. > :56:14.And you see that in a lot of Tory controlled councils
:56:15. > :56:17.Tory councillors will be looking over their shoulders wondering
:56:18. > :56:20.what the Lib Dem vote is getting stronger, isn't it?
:56:21. > :56:23.No, I think the Tories will be looking to take back the overall
:56:24. > :56:25.control that we lost in Cambridgeshire and Norfolk
:56:26. > :56:30.And actually having no overall control, these rainbow coalitions,
:56:31. > :56:35.have made it incredibly much more difficult to have real decisions.
:56:36. > :56:38.County councils have really important jobs, important services,
:56:39. > :56:40.Children's Services, adult social services.
:56:41. > :56:49.Decisions about the long-term planning...
:56:50. > :56:52.You're not worried about anybody, is that what you're saying?
:56:53. > :56:55.What I have seen is where the county council is really well run,
:56:56. > :56:56.Essex, Hertfordshire, really good strategic decisions,
:56:57. > :56:58.and then it used to be the same in Cambridgeshire,
:56:59. > :57:01.and then we've had a lot more challenging since we've
:57:02. > :57:05.Norfolk has now, they have given up the opposition have given up.
:57:06. > :57:08.Those Tory councils are putting like mad.
:57:09. > :57:11.But since they've come back to having a Conservative
:57:12. > :57:13.leadership in Norfolk, they've been able to get
:57:14. > :57:19.Decisions have just sat on the edges.
:57:20. > :57:28.They have to just manage their margins and their bhajans
:57:29. > :57:30.-- budgets because there is a limited amount
:57:31. > :57:37.Whatever the scale of reduction pushed down from national
:57:38. > :57:38.government, look at Conservative councils across the region.
:57:39. > :57:41.They are cutting further and deeper, and they are cutting away
:57:42. > :57:46.at the services that actually a lot of people rely on.
:57:47. > :57:49.Now, I don't think that just living in a world where you have to say
:57:50. > :57:51.there is going to be no reductions whatsoever is sustainable,
:57:52. > :57:53.certainly after seven years of a Tory government
:57:54. > :57:57.In fairness, the problem was there when they came
:57:58. > :58:03.But the key point is, what kind of services do
:58:04. > :58:07.And on that basis, you know, at a local level, Labour
:58:08. > :58:10.politicians are standing up and they are defending get.
:58:11. > :58:12.People want well-run councils and managed budgets,
:58:13. > :58:14.because otherwise we don't get the services.
:58:15. > :58:18.And that is what you get with the Conservative run councils.
:58:19. > :58:22.Now to our round-up of the political week in 60 seconds
:58:23. > :58:35.A new report claims that one in six local roads
:58:36. > :58:38.are in urgent need of repair, and some may be forced
:58:39. > :58:42.to close altogether if no action is taken soon.
:58:43. > :58:47.In the next five years, they need to invest heavily
:58:48. > :58:49.in repairing and replacing them, or the ultimate sanction they have
:58:50. > :58:57.Security worries at Stansted airport after protesters campaigning
:58:58. > :58:59.against deportations padlocked themselves to the undercarriage
:59:00. > :59:06.It should not be possible for people to get the wrong side of an airport,
:59:07. > :59:10.and definitely not be possible for people to get on the runway.
:59:11. > :59:15.The nomination for Britain's best surprise is Northamptonshire,
:59:16. > :59:17.according to its Tourist Board, which is encouraging people
:59:18. > :59:22.?1 billion of tourist money that is coming
:59:23. > :59:26.into the county at the moment, to increase that by 50% in five
:59:27. > :59:31.And, any takers for a Brexit teapot?!
:59:32. > :59:35.A company in Great Yarmouth has made a limited edition.
:59:36. > :59:46.You two went by buying one of those, I'm sure!
:59:47. > :59:50.The protesters on the runway, that raises some very serious
:59:51. > :59:54.I'm very fond of Stansted Airport, I use it a lot when I'm
:59:55. > :59:57.going backwards and forwards and it's always very busy and I've
:59:58. > :59:59.always been very impressed by the security there.
:00:00. > :00:02.I do think we need to ask how this happened, because protesters should
:00:03. > :00:05.not be able to get onto a runway of an airport, serious
:00:06. > :00:13.And you've got Luton airport of course.
:00:14. > :00:16.I mean security is very tight there as it is in lots
:00:17. > :00:19.The key thing of course with Stansted is, if a plane
:00:20. > :00:22.is diverted to the UK, if there is a potential hijack
:00:23. > :00:24.situation or whatever, it is diverted into Stansted,
:00:25. > :00:26.which is considered to be a very highly secure airport.
:00:27. > :00:29.So I'm sure the authorities will be looking at this,
:00:30. > :00:32.trying to work out how to make sure it doesn't happen again.
:00:33. > :00:34.But there are miles of fencing round any airport.
:00:35. > :00:38.I am meeting the new boss of Stansted in a couple of weeks' time,
:00:39. > :00:40.so I will certainly be asking him that question, you know,
:00:41. > :00:43.how did this happen and how do we make sure that it
:00:44. > :00:47.You are right, Gavin, this is the airport that we use
:00:48. > :00:53.OK, both of you, thank you very much for being with us this week.
:00:54. > :01:06.We are back after the Easter break in three weeks' time.
:01:07. > :01:08.So, what will be the effect of new tax and benefit changes
:01:09. > :01:12.Will the Government's grand trade tour reap benefits?
:01:13. > :01:14.And are the Lib Dems really going to replace Labour,
:01:15. > :01:26.To answer that last question, I'm joined by from Salford
:01:27. > :01:31.by the Lib Dem MP, Alistair Carmichael.
:01:32. > :01:40.Michael Fallon sirs the Lib Dems will replace Labour. How long will
:01:41. > :01:46.it take? We will have to wait and see. Anyone who thinks you can
:01:47. > :01:51.predict the future is engaged in a dodgy game. I have been campaigning
:01:52. > :01:56.with the Liberal Democrats in Manchester... You must not
:01:57. > :02:03.mention... You know the by-election rules. It is only an illustration.
:02:04. > :02:13.Across false ways of the country, the Liberal Democrats are back in
:02:14. > :02:17.business -- across whole swathes of the country. Part of the reason why
:02:18. > :02:22.we are getting a good response is because the Labour Party under
:02:23. > :02:28.Jeremy Corbyn has taken such a self-destructive path. Even if you
:02:29. > :02:31.do pretty well in the local elections, it you have to make up
:02:32. > :02:38.lost ground from the time you did very well in previous times, you
:02:39. > :02:42.used to have 4700 councillors. It will take you a long while to get
:02:43. > :02:46.back to that. You will get no argument from me that we have a
:02:47. > :02:51.mountain to climb. What I'm telling you is, and if this is not just in
:02:52. > :02:57.this round of elections, it is in the other by-elections in places
:02:58. > :03:02.like Richmond, and in by-elections write the length and breadth of the
:03:03. > :03:05.country since last June, the Liberal Democrats are taking seats from the
:03:06. > :03:13.Labour Party under Conservative Party, and not just in Brexit phobic
:03:14. > :03:17.areas. Not just in Remain areas. But in places like Sunderland as well
:03:18. > :03:23.which voted very heavily for Brexit. In fact, that vote was in large part
:03:24. > :03:27.as well a protest against the way in which the Labour Party really has
:03:28. > :03:32.taken these areas for granted over the years. That is why the ground is
:03:33. > :03:39.fertile for us. In the local elections which is what we are
:03:40. > :03:42.discussing today, why would anybody vote for the Liberal Democrats if
:03:43. > :03:51.they believed in Brexit? Mr Farren has said he wants to reverse works.
:03:52. > :03:55.If you are Brexit supporter and you are considering how to cast your
:03:56. > :03:59.vote, first of all, I think you will be looking at the quality of
:04:00. > :04:02.representation you can get for your local area and you are right, we
:04:03. > :04:11.have a lot of ground to recoup from previous elections, we lost 124
:04:12. > :04:16.seats, communities have now had a few years to reflect on the quality
:04:17. > :04:19.of service they have been able to get and they have missed the very
:04:20. > :04:25.effective liberal Democrat councillors they have had. This is
:04:26. > :04:30.not just about whether you are a believer or remainer, ultimately,
:04:31. > :04:36.that is an issue we are going to have to settle and we will settle it
:04:37. > :04:40.not in the way the Government is having by dictating the terms of the
:04:41. > :04:45.debate, but by bringing the whole country together. I think that is
:04:46. > :04:49.something you can only do if, as we have suggested, you give the people
:04:50. > :04:52.the opportunity to have a say on the deal when Theresa May eventually
:04:53. > :04:58.produces it. The only way you could really replace Labour in the
:04:59. > :05:03.foreseeable future would be if a big chunk of the centre and right of the
:05:04. > :05:08.Labour Party came over and join due in some kind of new social
:05:09. > :05:14.democratic alliance. -- joined you. There is no sign that will happen? I
:05:15. > :05:17.do not see whether common purpose is anymore holding the Labour Party
:05:18. > :05:22.together. That is for people in the Labour Party to make their own
:05:23. > :05:30.decisions. Use what happened to the Labour Party in Scotland. -- you
:05:31. > :05:34.saw. Politics moved on and left them behind and they were decimated as a
:05:35. > :05:38.consequence of that. So was your party. It is possible the same thing
:05:39. > :05:44.could happen to the Labour Party and the rest of the UK. Politics is
:05:45. > :05:50.moving on and they are coming up with 1970s solutions to problems in
:05:51. > :05:56.2017. Alistair Carmichael, thanks for joining us. Let us have a look
:05:57. > :06:02.at some of the tax and benefit changes coming up this week. The tax
:06:03. > :06:06.changes first of all. The personal allowance is going to rise to
:06:07. > :06:11.?11,500, the level at which you start to pay tax. The higher rate
:06:12. > :06:18.threshold, where you start to play at 40%, that will rise from
:06:19. > :06:26.currently ?43,400, rising up to 40 5000. -- pay. Benefit changes,
:06:27. > :06:33.freeze on working age benefits, removal of the family element of tax
:06:34. > :06:37.credits and universal credit, that is a technical change but quite an
:06:38. > :06:44.impact. The child element of tax credit is going to be limited to two
:06:45. > :06:51.children on any new claims. The Resolution Foundation has crunched
:06:52. > :06:57.the numbers and they discovered that when you take the tax and benefit
:06:58. > :07:05.changes together, 80% go to better off households and the poorest third
:07:06. > :07:10.or worse. What help -- what happened to help the just about managing? The
:07:11. > :07:14.Resolution Foundation exists to find the worst possible statistics... It
:07:15. > :07:21.is not clear the figures are wrong? They are fairly recent figures and I
:07:22. > :07:25.have not seen analysis by other organisations. The Adam Smith
:07:26. > :07:29.Institute will probably have some question marks over it. Nobody
:07:30. > :07:32.should be surprised a Tory government is trying to make the
:07:33. > :07:39.state smaller... And the poor poorer. The system is propped up by
:07:40. > :07:42.better off people and so it will be those people who will be slightly
:07:43. > :07:50.less heavily taxed as you make the state smaller. Theresa May will have
:07:51. > :07:54.to stop just talking about the just about managing. And some of her
:07:55. > :07:59.other language and the role of the government and the state when she
:08:00. > :08:03.sounded quite positive... She sounded like a big government
:08:04. > :08:08.conservative not small government. In every set piece occasion, she
:08:09. > :08:16.says, it is time to look at the good the government can do. That is not
:08:17. > :08:19.what you heard from Mrs Thatcher. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown would
:08:20. > :08:24.not have dared to say it either even if they believed it. It raises a
:08:25. > :08:31.much bigger question which is, as well as whether this is a set of
:08:32. > :08:35.progressive measures, the Resolution Foundation constantly argued when
:08:36. > :08:38.George Osborne announced his budget measures as progressive when they
:08:39. > :08:43.were regressive when they checked out the figures, but also how this
:08:44. > :08:47.government was going to meet the demand for public services when it
:08:48. > :08:52.has ruled out virtually any tax rises that you would normally do
:08:53. > :08:57.now, including National Insurance. There are a whole range of nightmare
:08:58. > :09:01.issues on Philip Hammond's in-tray in relation to tax. The Resolution
:09:02. > :09:06.Foundation figures do not include the rise in the minimum wage which
:09:07. > :09:10.has just gone under way. They do not include the tax free childcare from
:09:11. > :09:15.the end of April, the extra 15 hours of free childcare from September.
:09:16. > :09:19.Even when you include these, it does not look like it would offset the
:09:20. > :09:25.losses of the poorest households. Doesn't that have to be a problem
:09:26. > :09:28.for Theresa May? It really is a problem especially when her
:09:29. > :09:33.narrative and indeed entire purpose in government is for that just about
:09:34. > :09:38.managing. What Mrs May still has which is exactly a problem they have
:09:39. > :09:41.at the budget and the Autumn Statement is that they are still
:09:42. > :09:48.saddled with George Osborne's massive ring fences on tax cuts and
:09:49. > :09:52.spending. They have to go through with the tax cut for the middle
:09:53. > :09:55.classes by pushing up the higher rate threshold which is absolutely
:09:56. > :09:59.going to do nothing for the just about managing. When they try to
:10:00. > :10:02.mitigate that, for example, in the Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond was
:10:03. > :10:08.told to come up with more money to ease the cuts in tax credits, came
:10:09. > :10:13.up with 350 million, an absolute... It is billions and billions
:10:14. > :10:17.involved. Marginal adjustment. A huge problem with the actual tax and
:10:18. > :10:21.benefit changes going on with what Mrs May as saying. The only way to
:10:22. > :10:25.fix it is coming up with more money to alleviate that. Where will you
:10:26. > :10:30.find it? Philip Hammond tried in the Budget with the National Insurance
:10:31. > :10:35.rises but it lasted six and a half days. I was told that it was one of
:10:36. > :10:40.the reasons why the Chancellor looked kindly on the idea of an
:10:41. > :10:46.early election because he wanted to get rid of what he regards as an
:10:47. > :10:50.albatross around his neck, the Tory manifesto 2015, no increase in
:10:51. > :10:55.income tax, no increase in VAT, no increase in National Insurance, fuel
:10:56. > :10:59.duty was not cut when fuel prices were falling so it is hardly going
:11:00. > :11:05.to rise now when they are rising again. This is why, I suggest, they
:11:06. > :11:09.end up in these incredibly complicated what we used to call
:11:10. > :11:14.stealth taxes as ways of trying to raise money and invariably a blow up
:11:15. > :11:19.in your face. Stealth taxes never end up being stealthy. It is part of
:11:20. > :11:25.the narrative that budget begins to fall apart within hours. You have to
:11:26. > :11:29.have sympathy, as Tom says, with Philip Hammond. No wonder he would
:11:30. > :11:33.like to be liberated. The early election will not happen. The best
:11:34. > :11:37.argument I have heard for an early election. The tax and spend about at
:11:38. > :11:42.the last election was a disaster partly because the Conservatives
:11:43. > :11:47.feared they would lose. Maybe they could be a bit more candid about the
:11:48. > :11:53.need to put up some taxes to pay for public services and it is very
:11:54. > :11:57.interesting what you picked up on Philip Hammond because he is
:11:58. > :12:04.trapped. So constrained about... You can also reopen the Ring fencing and
:12:05. > :12:10.spending and the obvious place to go is the triple lock, OAP spending.
:12:11. > :12:15.Another case for an election. He cannot undo the promise to that
:12:16. > :12:19.demographic. We will not get to 2020 without something breaking. The
:12:20. > :12:26.Prime Minister, the trade secretary and Mr Hammond, they are off to
:12:27. > :12:33.India, the Far East, talking up trade with these countries, I do not
:12:34. > :12:38.know if any of you are going? Sadly not. Will it produce dividends? The
:12:39. > :12:44.prime Minster is going somewhere too. No, it will not, the honest
:12:45. > :12:48.answer. No one will do a trade deal with us because we cannot do one
:12:49. > :12:51.because we are still in the EU and they need to know what our terms
:12:52. > :12:55.will be with the EU first before they can work out how they want to
:12:56. > :13:00.trade with us. This is vital preparatory work. Ministers always
:13:01. > :13:04.go somewhere in recess, it is what they do. We will not see anything in
:13:05. > :13:10.a hurry, we will not see anything for two years. They have to do it.
:13:11. > :13:15.Whatever side of the joint you are on, Brexit, remain, we need to get
:13:16. > :13:19.out there. -- the argument. We should have been doing this the day
:13:20. > :13:23.after the referendum result. It is now several months down the line and
:13:24. > :13:29.they need to step it up, not the opposite. You can make some informal
:13:30. > :13:33.talks, I guess. You can say, Britain is open for business. There is a
:13:34. > :13:38.symbolism to it. What a lot of energy sucked up into this.
:13:39. > :13:45.Parliament is not sitting so they might as well start talking. We have
:13:46. > :13:49.run out of energy and time. That is it for today. We are off for the
:13:50. > :13:53.Easter recess, back in two weeks' time. If it is Sunday, it is the
:13:54. > :14:22.Sunday Politics. Unless it is that used to recess! -- Easter recess.
:14:23. > :14:25.Marine Le Pen has her eyes on the French presidency.
:14:26. > :14:29.As she tries to distance herself from her party's controversial past,
:14:30. > :14:53.we follow the money and ask, "Who's funding her campaign?"
:14:54. > :15:02.I think I've died and gone to heaven. Saluti. Chin-chin.
:15:03. > :15:06.So, can anybody speak Italian? No. Non parlo italiano.