0:00:34 > 0:00:36Morning everyone, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.
0:00:36 > 0:00:37I'm Sarah Smith.
0:00:37 > 0:00:39And this is your guide to all the big stories that
0:00:39 > 0:00:44are shaping politics this weekend, and a few of the smaller ones too.
0:00:44 > 0:00:46Philip Hammond is getting ready to deliver his latest Budget
0:00:46 > 0:00:49on Wednesday and he's not short of advice - to spend more,
0:00:49 > 0:00:52show restraint, even to stop being an Eyore -
0:00:52 > 0:00:57but can he change the direction of the country and his government?
0:00:57 > 0:00:59Conservative Party darling Jacob Rees-Mogg has
0:00:59 > 0:01:00some advice of his own.
0:01:00 > 0:01:03He thinks the Chancellor is being far too gloomy about Brexit
0:01:03 > 0:01:07- he joins me live to explain why.
0:01:07 > 0:01:10The former Leave campaign leader, Gisela Stuart, will be here debating
0:01:10 > 0:01:13with pro-EU campaigner Alastair Campbell, after taking
0:01:13 > 0:01:15a trip to her native Germany to speak to businesses
0:01:15 > 0:01:19about Brexit.
0:01:19 > 0:01:23And, as we wait to find out what's on the menu for this week's budget,
0:01:23 > 0:01:25we're in a diner off the A1 in Peterborough,
0:01:25 > 0:01:27finding out who people most trust with the economy -
0:01:27 > 0:01:31Philip Hammond or John McDonnell?
0:01:31 > 0:01:33Here in the east, new homes for old, but could regeneration
0:01:33 > 0:01:35means fewer green spaces?
0:01:35 > 0:01:40And hopes the budget might improve transport links across our region.
0:01:47 > 0:01:49All that coming up in the programme.
0:01:49 > 0:01:52And with me for for all of it, three journalists who've promised
0:01:52 > 0:01:55not to show off like Michael Gove by using any long economicky words -
0:01:55 > 0:01:58although I'm not sure they really know that many anyway -
0:01:58 > 0:02:01it's Tom Newton Dunn, Gaby Hinsliff and Iain Martin.
0:02:01 > 0:02:04Let's take a look at the big political stories making the news
0:02:04 > 0:02:06this Sunday morning, and as you might expect there's
0:02:06 > 0:02:09plenty of speculation about what might or not might be
0:02:09 > 0:02:11in Philip Hammond's Budget.
0:02:11 > 0:02:14The Chancellor is promising a big investment in new technology,
0:02:14 > 0:02:17including driverless cars - which could be on the road by 2021.
0:02:17 > 0:02:21He's been interviewed in the Sunday Times,
0:02:21 > 0:02:23where he talks about plans to reach the target of building
0:02:23 > 0:02:27300,000 homes every year, or the equivalent of a city
0:02:27 > 0:02:28the size of Leeds.
0:02:28 > 0:02:31That paper speculates that he's attempting to turn from "fiscal
0:02:31 > 0:02:34Phil" into "hopeful Hammond" as he tries to set out
0:02:34 > 0:02:37a vision for the country, not just a list of numbers.
0:02:37 > 0:02:40The Sunday Telegraph thinks that Mr Hammond is planning to offer
0:02:40 > 0:02:43a pay rise to nurses as part of a bid to take on Labour.
0:02:43 > 0:02:46But that hasn't impressed Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell.
0:02:46 > 0:02:49He's spoken to a number of papers and is calling for an emergency
0:02:49 > 0:02:51budget to invest in public services and help struggling households.
0:02:51 > 0:02:55So that's a taste of what you might hear on Wednesday and Mr Hammond
0:02:55 > 0:02:57and Mr McDonnell have both been appearing this morning
0:02:57 > 0:03:01on the Andrew Marr Show.
0:03:01 > 0:03:04I think Britain has a very bright future ahead of it,
0:03:04 > 0:03:07and we have to embrace the opportunities that
0:03:07 > 0:03:08a post-Brexit world will offer.
0:03:08 > 0:03:11They will be opportunities that are based on huge change,
0:03:11 > 0:03:14huge technological evolution.
0:03:14 > 0:03:17It's not always going to be easy, but the British people have shown
0:03:17 > 0:03:20time and time again that we're up for these challenges.
0:03:20 > 0:03:23For many people out there, this is a depression.
0:03:23 > 0:03:27We've had people whose wages have been cut by 10%.
0:03:27 > 0:03:28Nurses, for example.
0:03:28 > 0:03:31We've had people who are now...
0:03:31 > 0:03:361.25 million food parcels handed out in the sixth richest
0:03:36 > 0:03:37country in the world.
0:03:37 > 0:03:45That's what I call a recession for large numbers of people.
0:03:45 > 0:03:50We will be talking about Labour and their economic policies in a moment,
0:03:50 > 0:03:54but let's start with what we might expect from the budget. We will talk
0:03:54 > 0:03:59to our panel of political observers. Philip Hammond is under pressure to
0:03:59 > 0:04:03set out a bold vision and reset the government's programme. Can we
0:04:03 > 0:04:09expect that?No, we can't. We have heard enough from the Chancellor
0:04:09 > 0:04:13across various broadcast and his article in the Sunday Times. I think
0:04:13 > 0:04:22we will not be getting a bold budget. His precise words short... A
0:04:22 > 0:04:24short time ago were a balanced budget. Some Tory hearts will think.
0:04:24 > 0:04:30They desperately want something to go out and shout about, something to
0:04:30 > 0:04:34capture people's imagination, and do big and bold things, like how on
0:04:34 > 0:04:39earth are they going to build those new 300,000 houses a year? There are
0:04:39 > 0:04:47good reasons why he has chosen what appears to be a pretty staid,
0:04:47 > 0:04:51Conservative budget, and that is that they are probably unable to get
0:04:51 > 0:04:54anything bold through Parliament. His capital is so low among Tory
0:04:54 > 0:05:04MPs. If you have a minority government, it is tricky.We have
0:05:04 > 0:05:06seen ministers on programmes like this in the last few weeks putting
0:05:06 > 0:05:12in the bids for what they would like spending on, whether it be payment
0:05:12 > 0:05:16for nurses or parliament. Would he struggled to get something radical
0:05:16 > 0:05:21through the Commons?Big ideas cost money. That's the problem. Bold
0:05:21 > 0:05:27ideas are controversial. In some ways, Tory MPs are asking their
0:05:27 > 0:05:31Chancellor to do the impossible. Government is already doing
0:05:31 > 0:05:36something big and bold, which is Brexit. That has implications for
0:05:36 > 0:05:40how much money is available, how many risks you want to take with
0:05:40 > 0:05:45everything else. What is crucial is that he demonstrates a reputation
0:05:45 > 0:05:51for competence. The reputation that the Conservative government has for
0:05:51 > 0:05:55economic competence, that many people prefer them to Labour on the
0:05:55 > 0:05:59issue of economic competence. The worst thing he could do is come up
0:05:59 > 0:06:04with a big, bold idea that unravelled quickly. What they
0:06:04 > 0:06:09absolutely don't want is to come up with an exciting idea that falls
0:06:09 > 0:06:14apart three days after the budget. He is under pressure from
0:06:14 > 0:06:17Brexiteers, who are suspicious of him. Does he have to offer them
0:06:17 > 0:06:22something?Part of his problem is he has to offer so many different
0:06:22 > 0:06:25people different things. This is Philip Hammond trying to be and
0:06:25 > 0:06:34dynamic.It is hard to tell sometimes.At least in theoretical
0:06:34 > 0:06:42terms. His longer-term difficulty is that, if you look at the economic
0:06:42 > 0:06:48cycle, we are getting to a point where we are probably overdue, if
0:06:48 > 0:06:53you put Brexit to one side, overdue some kind of correction or downturn,
0:06:53 > 0:06:58if you look what has happened to asset prices globally. What will be
0:06:58 > 0:07:03worrying for the Treasury is, just as everyone is saying we should turn
0:07:03 > 0:07:09on the taps and build this or that, we might be at the top of a cycle,
0:07:09 > 0:07:14and the Treasury will want to lose something in the armoury in terms of
0:07:14 > 0:07:17probably growing the deficit if there are economic difficulties in
0:07:17 > 0:07:22the next two years, and then there is Brexit as well.It sounds
0:07:22 > 0:07:27impossible.I think so. Talking to his friends and colleagues over the
0:07:27 > 0:07:33last few days, he had to make a call, which was precisely how much
0:07:33 > 0:07:38can I get away with, with my political capital being as low as it
0:07:38 > 0:07:45is, with the mixed problems he had at the last budget, and a lot of the
0:07:45 > 0:07:49party disliking his approach to Brexit. He is damned if he is,
0:07:49 > 0:07:59damned if he doesn't. Universal Credit, we are expecting a reduction
0:07:59 > 0:08:06in the time it takes to wait, business rates, affected by high
0:08:06 > 0:08:10inflation... I think we will see a problem fixing budget which will
0:08:10 > 0:08:16probably do quite a lot of important spadework in many areas.We will
0:08:16 > 0:08:21pick up on some of this later in the programme.
0:08:21 > 0:08:23Let's speak now to the Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, this week
0:08:23 > 0:08:26he helpfully launched an alternative "budget for Brexit" and advised
0:08:26 > 0:08:28the Chancellor to be less gloomy about the consequences
0:08:28 > 0:08:32of leaving the EU.
0:08:32 > 0:08:36Thank you for joining us. Your alternative budget is pretty
0:08:36 > 0:08:45radical. Almost half corporation tax, Cap Stamp duty to help the
0:08:45 > 0:08:49London market. It seems you are advocating the opposite from what we
0:08:49 > 0:08:54will hear from your Chancellor on Wednesday.There are two parts to
0:08:54 > 0:08:58the proposals I suggested. One is that we should show that after we
0:08:58 > 0:09:03have left the European Union, the UK is open to the rest of the world. It
0:09:03 > 0:09:07is about opening up to the rest of the world. Secondly, looking at the
0:09:07 > 0:09:13modelling that has been done by the Treasury and some other forecasters,
0:09:13 > 0:09:17which has been so comprehensively wrong. The forecasts made about what
0:09:17 > 0:09:24would happen after Brexit have turned out to be hopelessly false.
0:09:24 > 0:09:30The team at Cardiff University have done some modelling based on the
0:09:30 > 0:09:33classical economic principles and what happens if you move to free
0:09:33 > 0:09:38trade that would be very positive for the economy.You are predicting
0:09:38 > 0:09:46a Brexit dividend of £135 billion, which sounds fantastic. Why are you
0:09:46 > 0:09:50right, and everybody else, including the Bank of England and the
0:09:50 > 0:09:53Institute for Fiscal Studies, why are they all wrong?It depends on
0:09:53 > 0:09:59the type of modelling. The modelling that have been done by the Treasury
0:09:59 > 0:10:03have been based on gravity models, which work on the basis of the
0:10:03 > 0:10:07nearness of the market and the size of the economy you are trading with.
0:10:07 > 0:10:12These have been wrong in the past. They predicted that if we joined the
0:10:12 > 0:10:19euro, trade would grow by 300%. That was then revised down to 200%, but
0:10:19 > 0:10:25it is fantasyland. The model I am working on, by Sir Patrick Minford,
0:10:25 > 0:10:33who has a record of getting these things right. He was right about the
0:10:33 > 0:10:38exchange rate mechanism, right about the euro.Being right in the past
0:10:38 > 0:10:43doesn't mean you are right about the future. Why do you think the
0:10:43 > 0:10:47Treasury will not pick up the same numbers, if this is so obvious to
0:10:47 > 0:10:52you?I think the Treasury was humiliated by the errors in its
0:10:52 > 0:10:58forecast prior to Brexit, and is trying to defend its position. The
0:10:58 > 0:11:01short-term economic consequences of a vote to leave was one of the most
0:11:01 > 0:11:07dishonest documents to come out of the Treasury, purely a piece of
0:11:07 > 0:11:10political propaganda. They are wounded by that and sticking to the
0:11:10 > 0:11:15same script, rather than looking at other forecasts and other experts.
0:11:15 > 0:11:19You think the governor of the Bank of England is an enemy of Brexit,
0:11:19 > 0:11:23and it sounds like you think the Treasury is opposed to it. As the
0:11:23 > 0:11:28Chancellor fallen under their spell as well, and been persuaded to be an
0:11:28 > 0:11:34enemy of Brexit?I have admiration the Chancellor, but George Osborne,
0:11:34 > 0:11:39his predecessor, was the architect of Project Fear. He was too close to
0:11:39 > 0:11:43the Bank of England and lost his independence. That is what needs to
0:11:43 > 0:11:50change. It is an opportunity in the budget for Philip Hammond to show he
0:11:50 > 0:11:54is putting aside the Treasury's mistakes in the past. It is very
0:11:54 > 0:12:00encouraging what he is saying this morning, about a more positive
0:12:00 > 0:12:05approach to Brexit.Lord Lawson has accused Philip Hammond of being very
0:12:05 > 0:12:12close to sabotage on Brexit. He says we need a can-do man at the Treasury
0:12:12 > 0:12:16and not a prophet of doom.I think that Philip Hammond is an
0:12:16 > 0:12:20exceptionally intelligent man, a very thoughtful man. It is not a bad
0:12:20 > 0:12:25thing to have a Chancellor who is serious minded and steady, rather
0:12:25 > 0:12:31than one who is a showman and uses the Exchequer to interfere in
0:12:31 > 0:12:36absolutely everything.I have a lot of confidence in the Chancellor.
0:12:36 > 0:12:40When you launched your budget for Brexit, you said the government has
0:12:40 > 0:12:47to deliver the £350 million for the NHS that was delivered during the
0:12:47 > 0:12:50referendum, even though you didn't think that promise should have been
0:12:50 > 0:12:55made. Is that something they now need to deliver wrong?It is. This
0:12:55 > 0:13:00only happens once we have left. Politicians have to recognise that
0:13:00 > 0:13:07voters don't look at the small print of electoral policies. If you put
0:13:07 > 0:13:13£350 million on the side of a bus and say it may be available for the
0:13:13 > 0:13:19NHS, it is reasonable for people to think that is a promise. Brexit was
0:13:19 > 0:13:24won by the Leave campaign, so it it is important that they deliver on
0:13:24 > 0:13:29that promise. Politicians must keep faith with voters and deliver on
0:13:29 > 0:13:33implied promises, as well as ones that are set out in detail.The
0:13:33 > 0:13:38Cabinet will move on to talk about the Brexit bill this week, and we
0:13:38 > 0:13:42understand they may need to come up with more money to satisfy EU
0:13:42 > 0:13:46demands. The more money spent on that is less money available for
0:13:46 > 0:13:52things like spending on the NHS. Are you worried about the size of the
0:13:52 > 0:13:58exit bill?You have your finger on the important point. The government
0:13:58 > 0:14:02will have to choose whether to give lots of money to the European Union,
0:14:02 > 0:14:07or whether to spend money on UK public services, and that will be
0:14:07 > 0:14:12part of the negotiation. On all these issues, it comes down to
0:14:12 > 0:14:17choice is the government makes. I would encourage the government to
0:14:17 > 0:14:21choose our own domestic public services rather than expensive
0:14:21 > 0:14:25schemes in continent or Europe.Why are you advocating that the
0:14:25 > 0:14:34government should spend up to £2.5 billion on a no deal scenario?
0:14:34 > 0:14:39It is important that we are ready to leave in the event of no deal. If we
0:14:39 > 0:14:45left with no deal we would on current figures still be saving the
0:14:45 > 0:14:52remains of 18 billion so we would be saving 15 and a half billion against
0:14:52 > 0:14:56paying for the financial framework. To show we're ready on day one would
0:14:56 > 0:15:04be money well spent and most would be needed any way. We need to have
0:15:04 > 0:15:08new customs arrangements in place even if it is not for a no deal
0:15:08 > 0:15:11situation.There are suggestions that the Government might back down
0:15:11 > 0:15:15on the idea of putting the time and date of leaving the EU on the face
0:15:15 > 0:15:19of the bill. Would you be Exxon certained if that was -- concerned
0:15:19 > 0:15:27if that was remove prd the bill?It is in Article 50, unless Article 50
0:15:27 > 0:15:38is extended by the Council of Europe we leave on 20th March 2019 and it
0:15:38 > 0:15:42makes accepts that should be the same in -- sense that should be in
0:15:42 > 0:15:45same in domestic law. But that is a secondary concern from my point of
0:15:45 > 0:15:50view. It is important that we leave on that date.Stay there if you
0:15:50 > 0:15:51would.
0:15:51 > 0:15:54We're joined in the studio by the former minister
0:15:54 > 0:15:55Stephen Hammond.
0:15:55 > 0:15:57He's no relation to the Chancellor, but he is a member
0:15:57 > 0:16:01of the Treasury Select Committee and he's one of the Tory MPs named
0:16:01 > 0:16:02as "Brexit mutineers" by the Daily Telegraph
0:16:02 > 0:16:05this week - lucky him.
0:16:05 > 0:16:10I'm assured you're no relation to the Chancellor. Let's just pick up
0:16:10 > 0:16:18on what Jacob Rees Mogg was saying. How important is it to you as a
0:16:18 > 0:16:24rebel that the Government does put the date on.I agree with Jacob it
0:16:24 > 0:16:29is in the Article 50 process, the key reason it is important is the
0:16:29 > 0:16:33negotiations look like they're going to be tricky and longer than we
0:16:33 > 0:16:40expected and it may well be that we are still negotiating up until March
0:16:40 > 0:16:452019. We could have a short couple of weeks period of extension. Why do
0:16:45 > 0:16:50harm to the economy by falling out on a precise time? If those
0:16:50 > 0:16:54negotiations need to be extended. They won't go on for more than a
0:16:54 > 0:16:58couple of weeks, because there will be elections in Europe in June 2019
0:16:58 > 0:17:03and there is no chance of a new commission or Parliament dealing
0:17:03 > 0:17:09with this. Giving it flexibility and with this flexibility the government
0:17:09 > 0:17:12said it wants flexibility in negotiations, why give all the
0:17:12 > 0:17:19advantage to the other side? Part of that was evidenced yesterday by
0:17:19 > 0:17:22somebody suggesting they will ask for the Margaret Thatcher rebate to
0:17:22 > 0:17:27be suspended. That is as a result of putting the date on the bill.You
0:17:27 > 0:17:30did not agree with the Brexit committee and think it is important
0:17:30 > 0:17:35that we set the date and time?I think it is perfectly reasonable to
0:17:35 > 0:17:40set the date and time and I think these negotiations fill the time
0:17:40 > 0:17:45available. The United States and Australia agreed a free trade deal
0:17:45 > 0:17:51between April 2003 and February 2004. These things don't need to be
0:17:51 > 0:17:55interm Knabl if both sides want to agree. I think the British
0:17:55 > 0:18:00electorate would be very concerned if nearly three years after the vote
0:18:00 > 0:18:03to leave, we still hadn't left. I think most people expected that we
0:18:03 > 0:18:08would have left by now. The negotiations realistically to get
0:18:08 > 0:18:12through the approval of the European Parliament and so on need to be
0:18:12 > 0:18:16completed by at the end of next year, going up to the last minute I
0:18:16 > 0:18:21don't think is real is tick.To move on to talk about a trade deal and
0:18:21 > 0:18:27getting that done, the EU need to agree to move on and we need to
0:18:27 > 0:18:30settle the divorce, cabinet are going to be talking about the amount
0:18:30 > 0:18:37that needs to be spent on that, Stephen what manned, are you happy
0:18:37 > 0:18:41for the Government to offer more?I hope that the Government will stick
0:18:41 > 0:18:46to the Florence speech in terms of ensuring that we fulfil our
0:18:46 > 0:18:51liabilities and obligations. I'm not clear exactly whether that is 20
0:18:51 > 0:18:55billion or 40 billion and I'm not sure the government is. If part of
0:18:55 > 0:18:59the divorce bill is then some settlement for getting the trade
0:18:59 > 0:19:05deal, we will need to examine that carefully.Jacob Rees Mogg, is this
0:19:05 > 0:19:10that might spark another war in the party if the cabinet suggest they're
0:19:10 > 0:19:16prepared to pay more?I think we need to go back to what you said,
0:19:16 > 0:19:26that the - the EU said they want us to settle the money first. The
0:19:26 > 0:19:30Government doesn't need to follow that. They need our money. If we
0:19:30 > 0:19:37don't pay any money for the final 21 months of the framework, the EU has
0:19:37 > 0:19:43about 20 billion pounds gap in its finances and it has no legal
0:19:43 > 0:19:47requirement to borrow. So it insolvents or the Germans and the
0:19:47 > 0:19:51others pay more. So our position on money is very strong and we
0:19:51 > 0:19:56shouldn't fall into the trap of thinking just because Mr Barnier
0:19:56 > 0:20:01said it it is as if he has received tablets of stone like Moses, he has
0:20:01 > 0:20:09not.There is a sense that the Government feels a mo generous offer
0:20:09 > 0:20:14would set a good tone, the kind of approach that Jacob Rees Mogg
0:20:14 > 0:20:19suggests would not make for smooth relations.It probably wouldn't. But
0:20:19 > 0:20:24we have to be clear what we are paying for and what we are getting.
0:20:24 > 0:20:29No one is suggesting we should hand over money without proper scrutiny.
0:20:29 > 0:20:35It may be appropriate to put money to facilitate international trade to
0:20:35 > 0:20:39secure jobs. We have to be careful about the analysis about what the
0:20:39 > 0:20:45scale and size of Brexit dividend is and the size of payments will be.
0:20:45 > 0:20:51You mustn't confuse gross and net and there is disagreement about some
0:20:51 > 0:20:57of the numbers.On that, Jacob Rees Mogg in his budget for Brexit
0:20:57 > 0:21:03suggests in five years time we would have a 135 billion Brexit bonus. Do
0:21:03 > 0:21:10you think it is real is tick.He is using some analysis that has some
0:21:10 > 0:21:17flaws. It is predicting a price drop in the United Kingdom of 10%. Tariff
0:21:17 > 0:21:23drops will only be 3 or 4%. It is predicting huge productivity gains,
0:21:23 > 0:21:28the likes of which we have not seen in 20 years. Thirdly, despite his
0:21:28 > 0:21:34view on modellers there is evidence that they weren't and if you go into
0:21:34 > 0:21:41the detail of the analysis, some of the data is 14 years out of date.
0:21:41 > 0:21:46Jacob Rees Mogg, you're being hopelessly optimistic?I don't think
0:21:46 > 0:21:51that right. I think the fall in prices comes because you make the
0:21:51 > 0:21:55economy more competitive and you take away tariffs which reduces the
0:21:55 > 0:22:02price of food by 20%. That is a big reduction. Bear in mind that the
0:22:02 > 0:22:06biggest tariffs hit food, clothing and foot wear that, harm the poorest
0:22:06 > 0:22:13in society the most. The gains from productivity come from is in
0:22:13 > 0:22:21additional tariffs. Leading to other saving and further investment I
0:22:21 > 0:22:24think the modelling done by the professor is as good as modelling
0:22:24 > 0:22:30can be. That doesn't mean it is infallible. The failure of gravity
0:22:30 > 0:22:37model is well known.Michael Gove was accused of auditioning for the
0:22:37 > 0:22:44job of Chancellor by using long words. Do you know any good long
0:22:44 > 0:22:48economic words?I don't think that we want to get into this type of
0:22:48 > 0:22:52business actually. I think all Conservatives and Steven and I very
0:22:52 > 0:22:58much agree on this, want to show as united a front as we can manage.
0:22:58 > 0:23:02There are differences on some aspects of policy, but in terms of
0:23:02 > 0:23:04individuals we want to stand together and support the best
0:23:04 > 0:23:10interests of the government.Thank you.
0:23:10 > 0:23:12Brexit Secretary David Davis was in Berlin this week trying
0:23:12 > 0:23:14to win the support of business leaders there for a comprehensive
0:23:14 > 0:23:16free trade deal with the EU.
0:23:16 > 0:23:19He warned them against putting 'politics above prosperity'
0:23:19 > 0:23:24and reportedly got a bit of a frosty reception.
0:23:24 > 0:23:27Well, the former Labour MP Gisela Stuart was one of the leaders
0:23:27 > 0:23:28of the Vote Leave referendum campaign.
0:23:28 > 0:23:31We travelled with Gisela to Germany to meet the business leaders
0:23:31 > 0:23:34she says will help secure a good trade deal for the UK.
0:23:34 > 0:23:37Here's her film.
0:23:44 > 0:23:47I was born and brought up in this part of Germany,
0:23:47 > 0:23:50and although I've lived in the UK for the past 40 years,
0:23:50 > 0:23:54and represented the constituency of Birmingham and Edgbaston for 20
0:23:54 > 0:23:59years, my family still live here, and I've kept many links.
0:24:02 > 0:24:05I was chair of Vote Leave, and together with only a handful
0:24:05 > 0:24:07of other Labour MPs, we campaigned to leave
0:24:07 > 0:24:10the European Union because we thought the country would be
0:24:10 > 0:24:12better off outside.
0:24:12 > 0:24:15It's hard to remember now, but back in the 1970s, when we joined
0:24:15 > 0:24:19the European Economic Community, people thought that by joining
0:24:19 > 0:24:23the club we would see the kind of economic miracle Germany
0:24:23 > 0:24:26experienced in the '70s back home.
0:24:26 > 0:24:28The "Deutsche Wirtschaftswunder" would come to Britain.
0:24:28 > 0:24:33But, of course, it didn't.
0:24:35 > 0:24:38Within a few short years of the devastation of World War II,
0:24:38 > 0:24:41Germany had emerged as the largest economy in Europe.
0:24:41 > 0:24:42Germany's extraordinary success is down to
0:24:42 > 0:24:47the pragmatism of its business.
0:24:47 > 0:24:52German Mittelstand is family dominated, forward-thinking,
0:24:52 > 0:24:58long-term thinking, reliability, are very important values.
0:24:58 > 0:25:00Changing moods on a political landscape and changing frameworks
0:25:00 > 0:25:03are toxic for our way of doing business, and we want
0:25:03 > 0:25:10that to go away.
0:25:10 > 0:25:15German business is not given to making big political statements
0:25:15 > 0:25:18out of step with government policy, but talk to those in decision-making
0:25:18 > 0:25:21positions, and it is clear that they want to secure a good deal
0:25:21 > 0:25:24with the United Kingdom.
0:25:24 > 0:25:27BMW employs almost 90,000 people here in Germany,
0:25:27 > 0:25:31and exports just under 1 million cars annually.
0:25:31 > 0:25:36The UK is a vital market.
0:25:36 > 0:25:40What we are really seeking right now is more clarity, more certainty,
0:25:40 > 0:25:44because in our cycle of investment, cycle of development,
0:25:44 > 0:25:49it's about a seven-year or so period that we look at,
0:25:49 > 0:25:53but we are now, of course, starting to think about what comes next,
0:25:53 > 0:25:56and what we need to see now is what is going to be
0:25:56 > 0:25:59the trading relationship, how are the logistics going to look,
0:25:59 > 0:26:01what is going to be the requirements for people
0:26:01 > 0:26:03moving across the continent?
0:26:03 > 0:26:06Because all of these things are important to us today.
0:26:06 > 0:26:09And, by the way, they will be just as important tomorrow.
0:26:09 > 0:26:12Berlin is well aware that if the European Commission
0:26:12 > 0:26:16is allowed to put up trade barriers against Britain, it will be
0:26:16 > 0:26:18German business, German consumers and German employees
0:26:18 > 0:26:22who will suffer.
0:26:22 > 0:26:24TRANSLATION:I think it's very important that we complete
0:26:24 > 0:26:26the first phase successfully.
0:26:26 > 0:26:30The first phase of the negotiations, which looks at the financial
0:26:30 > 0:26:32consequences of Great Britain leaving the EU.
0:26:32 > 0:26:36And then it's not a question of punishment payments.
0:26:36 > 0:26:38It's about when you are part of a multilayer, contractual
0:26:38 > 0:26:42obligation and you want to leave that, then of course it takes
0:26:42 > 0:26:45a whole lot of obligations which you have to deal with,
0:26:45 > 0:26:54so both sides are satisfied and can live with the consequences.
0:26:54 > 0:26:58It isn't everyone's interests for the UK to part on good terms.
0:26:58 > 0:27:02Of course there was going to be upset when the UK voted to leave,
0:27:02 > 0:27:05but creating uncertainty over the terms of UK's exit will simply
0:27:05 > 0:27:10have a disruptive effect on exports to UK markets.
0:27:10 > 0:27:14Far better to have a sensible, amicable negotiation that results
0:27:14 > 0:27:16both sides being able to trade together and work
0:27:16 > 0:27:23together post-Brexit.
0:27:23 > 0:27:25Markus Krall is managing director of Goetzpartners,
0:27:25 > 0:27:26and heads the Financial Institution Industry Group.
0:27:26 > 0:27:32Is it true to say that, if we negotiate Brexit well,
0:27:32 > 0:27:34then a good Brexit can actually strengthen the United Kingdom,
0:27:34 > 0:27:35the European Union and Germany?
0:27:35 > 0:27:37It's absolutely true.
0:27:37 > 0:27:40I think that this is about two things.
0:27:40 > 0:27:45One, about proving that free trade is possible
0:27:45 > 0:27:49between a European Union that is smaller and a former member country.
0:27:49 > 0:27:52If you don't prove that free trade is possible there,
0:27:52 > 0:27:56then the question becomes, what is Europe standing for?
0:27:56 > 0:28:01Number two is, I also believe the free trade,
0:28:01 > 0:28:05free market and democratic and less bureaucratic approach that Britain
0:28:05 > 0:28:07has chosen as the path into the future is a role
0:28:07 > 0:28:10model for Europe.
0:28:10 > 0:28:13The time has come both for the United Kingdom
0:28:13 > 0:28:16and for the EU to be more clear about what kind of
0:28:16 > 0:28:18deal we can achieve.
0:28:18 > 0:28:20Both sides need to be bold.
0:28:20 > 0:28:24As long as we remain open to free trade and sensible co-operation,
0:28:24 > 0:28:29we can arrive at something that will benefit both sides.
0:28:29 > 0:28:33But one thing's obvious - if we are an open and free trading
0:28:33 > 0:28:35economy, we've got one big cheerleader on our side,
0:28:35 > 0:28:41and that is German business.
0:28:41 > 0:28:43That was Gisela Stuart setting out her case
0:28:43 > 0:28:45and we'll be hearing from the opposite side
0:28:45 > 0:28:47of the argument in the coming weeks.
0:28:47 > 0:28:49Gisela Stuart joins us in the studio now, as does Alastair Campbell.
0:28:49 > 0:28:52He used to work for Tony Blair in Number 10, set up
0:28:52 > 0:28:54the New European Newspaper to campaign against Brexit,
0:28:54 > 0:28:56and is so pro-European that at this year's Labour conference
0:28:56 > 0:28:59he was heard playing Ode to Joy on the bagpipes.
0:28:59 > 0:29:04Welcome both of you.
0:29:04 > 0:29:08We will start with your point in the film, that you think the German
0:29:08 > 0:29:13business once the EU to offer the UK a generous deal because it is in
0:29:13 > 0:29:17their interests, yet the president of the German equivalent of the CBI
0:29:17 > 0:29:23said that defending the single market must be the priority for the
0:29:23 > 0:29:28EU, and another says that the cohesion of the remaining member
0:29:28 > 0:29:35states remains the highest priority. The president of the CBI just after
0:29:35 > 0:29:40the referendum said that it would be in nobody 's interest to introduce
0:29:40 > 0:29:48tariffs and trade barriers. On the UK side, I don't think there's a
0:29:48 > 0:29:51full understanding that economic interests are incredibly important,
0:29:51 > 0:29:59that they are trying to cover economic interests on the cohesion
0:29:59 > 0:30:03of the 27. I think different economic interests will raise the
0:30:03 > 0:30:10head of different countries. The German auto industry is as important
0:30:10 > 0:30:16as the financial sector is here. The banking crisis is far from over, but
0:30:16 > 0:30:22the big riffs which were going on is that the E U is losing its second
0:30:22 > 0:30:27biggest net contributor. Countries like Germany want a deal with the UK
0:30:27 > 0:30:33that is a free open market. There are other tensions in the EU that
0:30:33 > 0:30:37wants to become more protectionist, and that is a bad thing.Looking at
0:30:37 > 0:30:45the film there with the Jacob Rees-Mogg interview. No matter what
0:30:45 > 0:30:51side of leave you are, it is delusional and all driven by wishful
0:30:51 > 0:30:55thinking. You could find a businessman who says Brexit will be
0:30:55 > 0:30:59good for Germany. The vast bulk of British businesses think this is a
0:30:59 > 0:31:03disaster, as do the vast bulk of European businesses. One of the
0:31:03 > 0:31:08delusions on which they ran their campaign is the idea that they need
0:31:08 > 0:31:15us more than we need them. That is not true.Be you self about £80
0:31:15 > 0:31:19billion more in goods and services into the UK than we do to them, and
0:31:19 > 0:31:24Germany has one of the biggest deficits. It is in their interest.
0:31:24 > 0:31:29Of course it is, but it is a myth that they need us more than we need
0:31:29 > 0:31:36them. The damage that will be done to us, even with a good deal. Let's
0:31:36 > 0:31:42be frank, where these negotiations are, Theresa May is either going to
0:31:42 > 0:31:48end up with a bad deal and dumber or no Deal. A bad deal is bad, and a no
0:31:48 > 0:31:55deal is a catastrophe.You are setting up ideas that which were not
0:31:55 > 0:32:02there to begin with and knocking them down. Delusional.35 billion,
0:32:02 > 0:32:07the Brexit bonus.If we had a referendum, it was a democratic
0:32:07 > 0:32:11decision. I know you don't like it and that a lot of business would
0:32:11 > 0:32:16have preferred to stay with the status quo. We have had the
0:32:16 > 0:32:21referendum. Undermining political institutions is in no one's
0:32:21 > 0:32:27interests. It is functioning democracies which lead to economic
0:32:27 > 0:32:33stability.Theresa May fought an election Inc on a hard Brexit that
0:32:33 > 0:32:47was rejected.As we heard from BMW, there is uncertainty for business.
0:32:47 > 0:32:52There will be elections, European elections, in 2019. There will be a
0:32:52 > 0:32:57change of the Commission and the parliament. We have a narrow window
0:32:57 > 0:33:00to implement the mandate for the referendum which Parliament voted
0:33:00 > 0:33:07for. So rather than you undermining this country, why don't you work
0:33:07 > 0:33:12together to get the best deal? Because we totally disagree.You
0:33:12 > 0:33:18don't want a good deal?I'm in favour of a good deal, and I could
0:33:18 > 0:33:23give them some advice as to how they get a good deal. First, you have a
0:33:23 > 0:33:29cabinet that has an agreed strategy. 18 months in, they don't have that.
0:33:29 > 0:33:34I am not undermining a deal. I am continuing to pose questions about
0:33:34 > 0:33:41what they are trying to do and how they are trying to do it. This is
0:33:41 > 0:33:45democracy. Democracy is the ability for Parliament, which is not doing
0:33:45 > 0:33:50its job properly, and the public, to keep scrutinising, and if they want
0:33:50 > 0:33:56to change their mind, having the right to do that.You were trying to
0:33:56 > 0:34:01encourage the Taoiseach yesterday to play hardball with the UK.I am on
0:34:01 > 0:34:06the side of the UK, and I am worried that if we go down the path that we
0:34:06 > 0:34:10are being taken down, and Theresa May and Boris Johnson and the rest
0:34:10 > 0:34:16of them, this shambolic path, we are going to do fundamental, lasting
0:34:16 > 0:34:20damage to the country we love. I don't care about the Civil Aviation
0:34:20 > 0:34:26Authority. I care about Britain. -- I don't care about the European
0:34:26 > 0:34:35Union. If every lorry going into the UK today was stopped for just two
0:34:35 > 0:34:40minutes, we would create an instant 17 mile traffic jam. These people
0:34:40 > 0:34:50just don't care...I am not these people! Let us not conflate... You
0:34:50 > 0:34:54either decide that you are implementing a democratic decision
0:34:54 > 0:35:00of a referendum that was called and over 17 million voted.You will not
0:35:00 > 0:35:09stop me debating it. Just as Nigel Farage...Stop talking about Nigel
0:35:09 > 0:35:19Farrell Raj. Vote Leave was not Nigel Farage. There is no desire in
0:35:19 > 0:35:25Germany to punish the United Kingdom.They are behaving
0:35:25 > 0:35:29reasonably.There is a battle of protectionism and free market going
0:35:29 > 0:35:35on. If we implement this properly, give businesses the kind of
0:35:35 > 0:35:41incentives they want, we can get a good deal. So you want a bad deal?
0:35:41 > 0:35:48You are driven by wishful thinking. Gisela Stuart, you are saying that
0:35:48 > 0:35:51business will intervene to prevent things like tariffs being put in
0:35:51 > 0:35:56place? They are leaving it a bit late to put pressure on.You will
0:35:56 > 0:36:00find that business is laying out the kind of things they need to get
0:36:00 > 0:36:04those deals. I can find as much fault with the speed of the
0:36:04 > 0:36:09progress, but what I really do resent is that you are actually
0:36:09 > 0:36:17encouraging other countries to undermine...Know I am not! I spoke
0:36:17 > 0:36:21out in support of the Irish Taoiseach because I spent a lot of
0:36:21 > 0:36:24time with Tony Blair and his team on the Good Friday Agreement. The
0:36:24 > 0:36:29people who are driving this hard Brexit without thinking it through,
0:36:29 > 0:36:34still no answer on how you do Brexit in our island without a hard border.
0:36:34 > 0:36:43I think the Irish Taoiseach is right to call out the government on the
0:36:43 > 0:36:46incompetence and the fact they have not thought it through.You accept
0:36:46 > 0:36:52the result of the referendum and the fact that we will be leaving the EU?
0:36:52 > 0:36:57I accept the result of the referendum, but I do not accept that
0:36:57 > 0:37:01the country will definitely leave, because the country is entitled to
0:37:01 > 0:37:06change its mind. As the chaos and costs mount, the public is entitled
0:37:06 > 0:37:12to change its mind and will change its mind.There is no evidence at
0:37:12 > 0:37:21the moment.Come out with me!Allow me to finish the sentence. There is
0:37:21 > 0:37:27a changing of mind happening, a crystallisation. Unlike you, I have
0:37:27 > 0:37:32fought five elections and I have won five elections. I have probably
0:37:32 > 0:37:38spoken to more people like you.You may do, I'm just saying, come out on
0:37:38 > 0:37:44the road with me...40% of the population in the middle just want
0:37:44 > 0:37:49us to get on with it. What that film showed is that if you want to make
0:37:49 > 0:37:55it a self-fulfilling prophecy that it's a disaster, which I don't. I
0:37:55 > 0:38:01want to implement a deal that is good for British jobs. The rest of
0:38:01 > 0:38:08the world is changing in terms of technology. Currently, Germany
0:38:08 > 0:38:13hasn't even got a government, and nobody is laughing about that.And
0:38:13 > 0:38:18they are stable without a government!Let's leave it there.
0:38:18 > 0:38:20It's coming up to 11.40, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
0:38:20 > 0:38:23Coming up on the programme, we'll be looking at the latest
0:38:23 > 0:38:26opinion polls and we'll bring you the results of our moodbox
0:38:26 > 0:38:28asking whether Phllip Hammond or John McDonnell should be running
0:38:28 > 0:38:38the economy.
0:38:38 > 0:38:42Hello welcome to Sunday Politics East.
0:38:42 > 0:38:46Later in the programme we take a trip from east
0:38:46 > 0:38:48to west to see how the Chancellor could make
0:38:48 > 0:38:50a difference in the budget on
0:38:50 > 0:38:51Wednesday.
0:38:51 > 0:38:54In Great Yarmouth we are right here out on the edge of
0:38:54 > 0:39:00England and without that major infrastructure investment we will
0:39:00 > 0:39:02stay just as we are, without the possibility of expanding.
0:39:02 > 0:39:04With us this week, Dave Hodgson, the elected
0:39:04 > 0:39:06mayor for Bedford, and Mark Lancaster, defence
0:39:06 > 0:39:08minister and MP for Milton Keynes.
0:39:08 > 0:39:1150 years after it was established as a new town, Milton Keynes wants
0:39:11 > 0:39:13to revamp seven housing estates.
0:39:13 > 0:39:20The scheme would cost £1 billion.
0:39:20 > 0:39:23There will be a local referendum, believed to be the first
0:39:23 > 0:39:25of its kind, to be held before work starts.
0:39:25 > 0:39:31The scheme could include the building of up to 1250 new homes.
0:39:31 > 0:39:33Some of those could be built on existing green spaces.
0:39:33 > 0:39:36Here's Andy Holmes.
0:39:36 > 0:39:38Barry Wilde on
0:39:38 > 0:39:40Fullers Slade estate, which is surrounded by a large
0:39:40 > 0:39:42green space.
0:39:42 > 0:39:45I've come to see why it's now at risk of redevelopment.
0:39:45 > 0:39:47Good morning, Barry.
0:39:47 > 0:39:49Nice to meet you.
0:39:49 > 0:39:54Shall we go and have a look?
0:39:54 > 0:40:00This is one of the estates in Milton Keynes earmarked for regeneration.
0:40:00 > 0:40:03It's a long-standing community which, a lot around the town,
0:40:03 > 0:40:04values these communal green areas.
0:40:04 > 0:40:05I love it.
0:40:05 > 0:40:07I've been here long enough and I walked around
0:40:07 > 0:40:08who mostly daily.
0:40:08 > 0:40:09And it is just great.
0:40:09 > 0:40:11You're walking in the countryside, you're
0:40:11 > 0:40:13in a housing estate but you're walking in the countryside.
0:40:13 > 0:40:15Why would you want to get rid of this?
0:40:15 > 0:40:16It's a real attribute.
0:40:16 > 0:40:18It's quite beautiful.
0:40:18 > 0:40:21There are concerns that lots more houses will be built here
0:40:21 > 0:40:24as one of the ways of paying for the regeneration could be
0:40:24 > 0:40:26from the sale of new private property on the
0:40:26 > 0:40:27estate.
0:40:27 > 0:40:31We've got to regenerate the estate by putting new properties to
0:40:31 > 0:40:33pay for the refurbishment of the old.
0:40:33 > 0:40:34So we've got to have 1000 plus
0:40:34 > 0:40:39houses to refurbish 278.
0:40:39 > 0:40:43But it's also worries about people having to
0:40:43 > 0:40:45downsize if they are moved, and residents like Tony
0:40:45 > 0:40:47Smith are very unhappy about their uncertain future.
0:40:47 > 0:40:48Moving out?
0:40:48 > 0:40:50They will have to carry me out.
0:40:50 > 0:40:51I just don't want to move.
0:40:51 > 0:40:53I won't move.
0:40:53 > 0:40:57Of course, if I have to, I have to do.
0:40:57 > 0:41:02But I will be one of the last to go.
0:41:02 > 0:41:04So what do you think of what you have heard about
0:41:04 > 0:41:05the regeneration plans?
0:41:05 > 0:41:07What do I think about it?
0:41:07 > 0:41:09It stinks, for a start.
0:41:09 > 0:41:10So many rumours.
0:41:10 > 0:41:12Here on a Fullers Slade estate, one of seven
0:41:12 > 0:41:12estates in Milton Keynes that is set to be degenerated over the next 15
0:41:18 > 0:41:21Here on a Fullers Slade estate, one of seven
0:41:21 > 0:41:24estates in Milton Keynes that is set to be regenerated over the next 15
0:41:24 > 0:41:27years, there are 453 properties, of which 278 on council owned.
0:41:27 > 0:41:29And it is those 278 that are set to be
0:41:29 > 0:41:31at the centre of this regeneration project.
0:41:31 > 0:41:34Helen has lived here for the last 18 years and won awards for
0:41:34 > 0:41:35her work on the estate.
0:41:35 > 0:41:36I will miss the community.
0:41:36 > 0:41:38We built this community and if they decide to
0:41:38 > 0:41:41bring in more houses and things like this they will destroy this
0:41:41 > 0:41:43community.
0:41:43 > 0:41:45Because they will put too many people in here.
0:41:45 > 0:41:47Yeah, it is upsetting, it really is upsetting
0:41:47 > 0:41:48me.
0:41:48 > 0:41:51I have gone to meetings and actually broken down into tears at
0:41:51 > 0:41:53these meetings because we don't know ourselves, as residents, what's
0:41:53 > 0:41:59going on.
0:41:59 > 0:42:01The company that might have the answers is Your MK.
0:42:01 > 0:42:02Who are responsible for regenerating the
0:42:03 > 0:42:04estate.
0:42:04 > 0:42:05It has to be a community-led process.
0:42:05 > 0:42:08We cannot be seen to be doing things to people, they have to
0:42:08 > 0:42:10determine what the future looks like for them,
0:42:10 > 0:42:11it is their community.
0:42:11 > 0:42:14We have spoken to residents who are worried about green spaces
0:42:14 > 0:42:15disappearing.
0:42:15 > 0:42:16I think you are absolutely correct.
0:42:16 > 0:42:18There is a significant proportion of this
0:42:18 > 0:42:20estate that is currently green, open spaces.
0:42:20 > 0:42:22Those are lots of probably underutilised open space on the
0:42:22 > 0:42:26estate and that has got to be factored into what we are
0:42:26 > 0:42:29determining, going forward.
0:42:29 > 0:42:31So it sounds like we are not ruling out
0:42:31 > 0:42:33building houses on some of that green space?
0:42:33 > 0:42:37No, and I think it would be foolish to say we are not.
0:42:37 > 0:42:40Your MK also disputes the future of 1000 new homes,
0:42:40 > 0:42:42saying the numbers being built haven't been
0:42:42 > 0:42:43decided yet.
0:42:43 > 0:42:46When all the questions are answered and the final plans put
0:42:46 > 0:42:49together, Milton Keynes Council will hold a referendum on the scheme.
0:42:49 > 0:42:51And there is a promise that those plans
0:42:51 > 0:42:54can be rejected.
0:42:54 > 0:42:57If we can't build that trust and we go to a referendum
0:42:57 > 0:43:00and is no vote then Milton Keynes Council has failed.
0:43:00 > 0:43:02Your MK has failed and I don't want to get into
0:43:02 > 0:43:04that situation.
0:43:04 > 0:43:10And I think we are the first council to offer a binding
0:43:10 > 0:43:14yes - no referendum for regeneration and I think that puts the onus on
0:43:14 > 0:43:16Milton Keynes Council and Your MK to get it right.
0:43:16 > 0:43:19I don't want to fail but I think the backstop is the
0:43:19 > 0:43:21referendum, to make sure we won't fail.
0:43:21 > 0:43:22As I say, it's a win-win situation.
0:43:22 > 0:43:24By next summer, when the plans for Fullers
0:43:24 > 0:43:29Slade should be ready, they
0:43:29 > 0:43:32will find out if the residents actually think they are winners
0:43:32 > 0:43:33or not.
0:43:33 > 0:43:34It's a palace, it's my palace.
0:43:34 > 0:43:36It's my home, you know what I mean?
0:43:36 > 0:43:38It's not just bricks and mortar, that is my home.
0:43:38 > 0:43:40Why would I want to move?
0:43:40 > 0:43:43I'd be a stranger anywhere else.
0:43:43 > 0:43:45Mark Lancaster, somebody said in there, "it stinks."
0:43:45 > 0:43:55It's not been handled very well, is it?
0:43:55 > 0:43:57I think there have been issue by Milton Keynes
0:43:57 > 0:43:59Council about not communicating the plans very
0:43:59 > 0:44:00well with constituents in
0:44:00 > 0:44:01Milton Keynes.
0:44:01 > 0:44:04I think we have to accept that many of the homes in
0:44:04 > 0:44:07Milton Keynes were built 50 years ago as temporary housing for the
0:44:07 > 0:44:10workers who built the city and there is a need to regenerate.
0:44:10 > 0:44:12But we do have to be very sensitive about this
0:44:12 > 0:44:15and I am very conscious that it is the right decision to have a
0:44:15 > 0:44:17referendum at the end of it.
0:44:17 > 0:44:18Also, what people don't realise is the
0:44:18 > 0:44:23unique way that green space is looked after in Milton Keynes
0:44:23 > 0:44:24through the Parks Trust.
0:44:24 > 0:44:26This land is not owned by Milton Keynes
0:44:26 > 0:44:29Council, Milton Keynes is one of the greenest cities in the UK
0:44:29 > 0:44:32and we do have a practice where if green space
0:44:32 > 0:44:34is used and effectively is swapped out to maintain that balance of
0:44:34 > 0:44:36green space with the Milton Keynes.
0:44:36 > 0:44:41Just to get that clear, so unless we trust
0:44:41 > 0:44:43--the trust says you can build on the
0:44:43 > 0:44:44green space, it cannot be built on?
0:44:44 > 0:44:46Well, the trust effectively owns the green space.
0:44:46 > 0:44:49Not all the green space in Milton Keynes, but most of it.
0:44:49 > 0:44:52And there has been deals in the past where it has released lands
0:44:52 > 0:44:55to be built on, but then new green spaces is taken to compensate.
0:44:55 > 0:45:05So we get that balance in Milton Keynes to
0:45:06 > 0:45:07continue to enjoy that wonderful balance
0:45:07 > 0:45:09we have of being one of the
0:45:09 > 0:45:10greenest cities in the UK.
0:45:10 > 0:45:12I suppose it depends on where that
0:45:12 > 0:45:13green space is.
0:45:13 > 0:45:16If it is outside your door step and then it is not
0:45:16 > 0:45:19outside your doorstep then it is not there for you.
0:45:19 > 0:45:21Indeed, but the important thing about the binding
0:45:21 > 0:45:22referendum, it is important it is done
0:45:22 > 0:45:24with the residents, not to the
0:45:24 > 0:45:25residents.
0:45:25 > 0:45:28It sounds as if that is what the council is trying to do.
0:45:28 > 0:45:31Sorry, which way are the council trying to do it, as far as you're
0:45:31 > 0:45:32concerned?
0:45:32 > 0:45:33With the residents.
0:45:33 > 0:45:35Because the binding referendum is, as the councillor
0:45:35 > 0:45:39said in the clip, it is about trying to work with them and if they fail
0:45:39 > 0:45:42to get the referendum then the council and Your MK have failed.
0:45:42 > 0:45:44So I hope they succeed in terms of making sure
0:45:44 > 0:45:47they work with the residents to have a satisfactory outcome for the
0:45:47 > 0:45:48residents and for the council.
0:45:48 > 0:45:50The repairs and renovations have to be
0:45:50 > 0:45:52paid for somehow, don't they?
0:45:52 > 0:45:55How would that be in Bedford?
0:45:55 > 0:46:00Our stock, we transferred it to a housing
0:46:00 > 0:46:03association back in the '90s, so we do not have
0:46:03 > 0:46:06that issue.
0:46:06 > 0:46:08BPHAR, our housing provider, does that
0:46:08 > 0:46:09through borrowing and through some regeneration as well
0:46:09 > 0:46:11selling some properties.
0:46:11 > 0:46:14So a mixture of things.
0:46:14 > 0:46:16And in Milton Keynes has got to be paid
0:46:16 > 0:46:17for somehow.
0:46:17 > 0:46:20Absolutely, and there is no doubt work needs to be done on these
0:46:20 > 0:46:21properties.
0:46:21 > 0:46:23The crucial thing is to be sensitive.
0:46:23 > 0:46:27I have offered my assistance in hoping to mediate
0:46:27 > 0:46:29through this process but this binding referendum, I think, is
0:46:30 > 0:46:31crucial.
0:46:31 > 0:46:33We both agreed we need more houses, but it is difficult getting
0:46:33 > 0:46:38people to agree to have them outside their house.
0:46:38 > 0:46:40And it's difficult to get the agreement in the wider
0:46:40 > 0:46:43community in terms of when you have got big
0:46:43 > 0:46:44congestion issues that are
0:46:44 > 0:46:45very localised, that can create a problem.
0:46:45 > 0:46:49That is the big one, as far as you're concerned?
0:46:49 > 0:46:51Building new houses is one thing, but actually
0:46:51 > 0:46:52having infrastructure there is more important.
0:46:52 > 0:46:58And infrastructure upfront.
0:46:58 > 0:47:00So we have had promised infrastructure and then the houses
0:47:00 > 0:47:03built on the back of it, and sometimes the infrastructure hasn't
0:47:03 > 0:47:04arrived.
0:47:04 > 0:47:07I think people feel let down by that, I know people feel let
0:47:07 > 0:47:08down by that.
0:47:08 > 0:47:11For years, the principal in Milton Keynes has been, I before E.
0:47:11 > 0:47:12Infrastructure before expansion.
0:47:12 > 0:47:14We are not NIMBYs in Milton Keynes but
0:47:14 > 0:47:16you must get that I, the infrastructure.
0:47:16 > 0:47:18Milton Keynes was built for the car and for traffic
0:47:18 > 0:47:20and infrastructure, whereas I suspect Bedford wasn't.
0:47:20 > 0:47:21Indeed.
0:47:21 > 0:47:23It wasn't planned, it has been around
0:47:23 > 0:47:25for about 850 years.
0:47:25 > 0:47:28Let's move on.
0:47:28 > 0:47:31Wednesday is a budget day, the Chancellor has a lot on his mind
0:47:31 > 0:47:33with Brexit just 16 months away.
0:47:33 > 0:47:34So what do people here want from
0:47:35 > 0:47:36Philip Hammond?
0:47:36 > 0:47:38High on the wish list, money for infrastructure.
0:47:38 > 0:47:39Andrew Sinclair has been taking a trip from
0:47:39 > 0:47:49east to west to see where that money could be spent.
0:47:51 > 0:47:53At every budget time, we always talk a lot about
0:47:53 > 0:47:54infrastructure and particularly transport
0:47:54 > 0:47:55infrastructure.
0:47:55 > 0:47:56Why?
0:47:56 > 0:47:58Because that's what keeps us, and more importantly,
0:47:58 > 0:48:00the economy moving.
0:48:00 > 0:48:03And as a largely rural region, we often struggle to
0:48:03 > 0:48:08get from A to B.
0:48:08 > 0:48:10In next week's budget, the big infrastructure focus
0:48:10 > 0:48:16is likely to be here, the River Yare in Great Yarmouth.
0:48:16 > 0:48:19Ipswich has been promised a river crossing, so too has
0:48:19 > 0:48:20Lowestoft.
0:48:20 > 0:48:23Now it seems that Great Yarmouth is going to get one as
0:48:23 > 0:48:24well.
0:48:24 > 0:48:27I'm hoping it will it will be high enough so the regular shipping
0:48:27 > 0:48:30can go underneath it.
0:48:30 > 0:48:32There's been a campaign for a third river crossing
0:48:32 > 0:48:34for Yarmouth for the ten years.
0:48:34 > 0:48:36Plans have been drawn up, the initial funding found.
0:48:36 > 0:48:38Now it's up to the Government.
0:48:38 > 0:48:42In Great Yarmouth we are right here on the edge of
0:48:42 > 0:48:45England and without that major infrastructure investment we will
0:48:45 > 0:48:52stay just as we are without the possibility of expanding.
0:48:52 > 0:48:56We can expand and offer so much more to
0:48:56 > 0:48:58Great Britain PLC if we have the infrastructure.
0:48:58 > 0:49:00And one bridge make such a difference?
0:49:00 > 0:49:01Absolutely.
0:49:01 > 0:49:04I have been told the bridge could be on the Chancellor's list.
0:49:04 > 0:49:06Back on dry land, it's time to start heading west.
0:49:06 > 0:49:08As the train to Norwich pulls out of Great Yarmouth
0:49:08 > 0:49:11there is a good view of the A47, one of the
0:49:11 > 0:49:12region's main arteries, in
0:49:12 > 0:49:13desperate need of improvement.
0:49:13 > 0:49:15Some upgrade work will start next year,
0:49:15 > 0:49:18but more is needed.
0:49:18 > 0:49:20Among my fellow passengers, the main concern is
0:49:20 > 0:49:23about another form of infrastructure.
0:49:23 > 0:49:25Trying to get on the property ladder myself and finding
0:49:25 > 0:49:32it quite tough, I'm in my early 30s, and to do
0:49:32 > 0:49:33on my own
0:49:33 > 0:49:40is quite a struggle.
0:49:40 > 0:49:43having to go to a better job and the 70 hours a week,
0:49:43 > 0:49:44maybe, to start saving.
0:49:44 > 0:49:46But that is only going to be renting, still.
0:49:46 > 0:49:48Not to be able to get money away for a
0:49:48 > 0:49:49mortgage.
0:49:49 > 0:49:52It's a big issue for our region.
0:49:52 > 0:49:55So as we pull into Norwich it's time to transfer to the car
0:49:55 > 0:49:57for a while.
0:49:57 > 0:49:59As you travel west through places like Wyndham,
0:49:59 > 0:50:02Attleborough and Thetford, you are struck by how
0:50:02 > 0:50:03much house building is
0:50:03 > 0:50:04going on at the moment.
0:50:04 > 0:50:13But despite that, there is still a desperately
0:50:13 > 0:50:14-need for housing across the region.
0:50:14 > 0:50:17The Chancellor is expected to announce incentives in his budget to
0:50:17 > 0:50:19encourage developers to build more and buyers to buy.
0:50:19 > 0:50:21There may also be measures to help tenants, and that
0:50:21 > 0:50:25is important in a region like ours, where rent is now rising
0:50:25 > 0:50:28faster than anywhere else in the country.
0:50:28 > 0:50:31Next stop, Barton Mills in Suffolk, where we come across
0:50:31 > 0:50:34Andy Arnold filling up.
0:50:34 > 0:50:37The local haulier spends £1000 a week on fuel
0:50:37 > 0:50:40for his four trucks.
0:50:40 > 0:50:43In our region the level of fuel duty has always
0:50:43 > 0:50:44been a contentious issue.
0:50:44 > 0:50:46The Government always think about how
0:50:46 > 0:50:48much tax they can get out of people, I don't
0:50:48 > 0:50:51think they realise how that
0:50:51 > 0:50:55hurts people in the transport industry with the fuel duty.
0:50:55 > 0:50:58The industry is hoping for another freeze.
0:50:58 > 0:51:01At least if it's frozen we can carry on
0:51:01 > 0:51:09operating the way we are.
0:51:09 > 0:51:11If it was to go up, it eats into our profit
0:51:11 > 0:51:14margin and you have got to do cut back somewhere, whether it is
0:51:14 > 0:51:16drivers' wages or whatever.
0:51:16 > 0:51:19At nearby Brandon, it's time to get back on the train.
0:51:19 > 0:51:21Through the Ely junction, still waiting for its
0:51:21 > 0:51:25upgrade, and then the Cambridge science Park, the place in recent
0:51:25 > 0:51:30years that has done very well at budget time.
0:51:30 > 0:51:34Cambridge is becoming so busy and important there is now
0:51:34 > 0:51:36talk of a third station for the city.
0:51:36 > 0:51:37If the Chancellor can afford it.
0:51:37 > 0:51:39It would have been nice to continue this
0:51:39 > 0:51:40journey further west, to
0:51:40 > 0:51:44Bedford and Milton Keynes.
0:51:44 > 0:51:47But the line which used to run from here to
0:51:47 > 0:51:51Oxford, the so-called Varsity Line, was closed 50 years ago.
0:51:51 > 0:51:53There is a project underway to reopen it,
0:51:53 > 0:51:55but it needs more money.
0:51:55 > 0:51:57We understand that on Wednesday's budget that will
0:51:57 > 0:52:02be extra funding to help make East - West rail more of a reality.
0:52:02 > 0:52:06But for now, my journey across the region has
0:52:06 > 0:52:09to come to premature end.
0:52:09 > 0:52:14Dave Hodgson, how important would that Varsity line be?
0:52:14 > 0:52:19The intermediary stops, Bedford to Milton Keynes,
0:52:19 > 0:52:22Milton Keynes to the west, and Bedford to Cambridge, they
0:52:22 > 0:52:24are very important to try and get some traffic
0:52:24 > 0:52:25off the road, help the
0:52:25 > 0:52:26growth of the towns.
0:52:26 > 0:52:27We have had this problem before.
0:52:27 > 0:52:29We were promised it would be completed by
0:52:29 > 0:52:332017 by George Osborne.
0:52:33 > 0:52:35The proposal is for 2023 and that is the western
0:52:35 > 0:52:45section at the Bedford- Cambridge section 2030.
0:52:46 > 0:52:49I think it is critical in terms of for the
0:52:49 > 0:52:50existing growth.
0:52:50 > 0:52:53If we are to have more of it is then even more
0:52:53 > 0:52:54important.
0:52:54 > 0:52:56There was talk it was just going to go from Oxford or
0:52:56 > 0:52:59Cambridge but now stopping at places like Milton Keynes and Bedford,
0:52:59 > 0:53:00very important for the economy.
0:53:00 > 0:53:02It's so exciting.
0:53:02 > 0:53:07We had the Lord Adonis report this week, he thinks if we get this
0:53:07 > 0:53:13link right it could mean an extra £160 million a year to our economy.
0:53:13 > 0:53:15Potentially making this link between Oxford and Cambridge,
0:53:15 > 0:53:17the Silicon Valley of the UK.
0:53:17 > 0:53:19We have seen money announced last year, 100 million.
0:53:19 > 0:53:20The start of the western end.
0:53:20 > 0:53:22I am confident we will see more this time.
0:53:22 > 0:53:24There really is...
0:53:24 > 0:53:27He's just looking at you because, as he said,
0:53:27 > 0:53:28George Osborne said 2017.
0:53:28 > 0:53:30100 million was for the business case,
0:53:30 > 0:53:31not for the actual building.
0:53:31 > 0:53:34We did get hard money allocated to this and
0:53:34 > 0:53:36the superhighway last year.
0:53:36 > 0:53:39We do need more but the key thing is collectively
0:53:39 > 0:53:40across the region the
0:53:40 > 0:53:42local authorities and politicians work together.
0:53:42 > 0:53:45We have been lobbying very hard and we saw the first
0:53:45 > 0:53:49impact of that last year and I think the public Dave and I need to
0:53:49 > 0:53:50continue to work together to tell the Chancellor
0:53:50 > 0:53:52that this is what we want and
0:53:52 > 0:53:53what we need.
0:53:53 > 0:53:56And then in return this will benefit the whole of the UK economy.
0:53:56 > 0:54:00I know you are very worried about the
0:54:00 > 0:54:07effect of road congestion in various parts.
0:54:07 > 0:54:08This would help?
0:54:08 > 0:54:10It would help in terms of moving between
0:54:10 > 0:54:12major towns but it is getting to that link.
0:54:12 > 0:54:16So Highways England have talked a lot about and that may be
0:54:16 > 0:54:20some money in the budget for Oxford for the first mile, last mile.
0:54:20 > 0:54:24So people spending some 50% of their journey time
0:54:24 > 0:54:26in the first and last bit.
0:54:26 > 0:54:28So some of those junctions we all know about, the blackout
0:54:28 > 0:54:30roundabout, junction 13, people spent most
0:54:30 > 0:54:31of their journey time in
0:54:31 > 0:54:32that, not in the connectivity.
0:54:32 > 0:54:34So we need to look at those issues as
0:54:34 > 0:54:38well.
0:54:38 > 0:54:40Does it help being an elected mayor, because the
0:54:40 > 0:54:41Government loves elected mayors.
0:54:41 > 0:54:43Even though you are a Liberal Democrat.
0:54:43 > 0:54:44Does it help?
0:54:44 > 0:54:47The flavour of the day is the metro mayors in
0:54:47 > 0:54:51terms of bigger areas and strategic areas so we may be getting a little
0:54:51 > 0:54:54bit of a look in, but I think the ask for us
0:54:54 > 0:54:55now is a lot of houses
0:54:55 > 0:54:58and currently we are not
0:54:58 > 0:55:00coping in a borough has not been designed
0:55:00 > 0:55:03for the car in terms of the existing pressure on our road structures.
0:55:03 > 0:55:07Do you get the feeling the Government
0:55:07 > 0:55:11is now aware or is concerned more money needs to come out of London
0:55:11 > 0:55:13and into areas like Bedford and Milton Keynes?
0:55:13 > 0:55:15Absolutely, and we have seen that in recent budgets.
0:55:15 > 0:55:18I have been the MP for 12 years and in
0:55:18 > 0:55:20the early years the local Milton Keynes economy was generating
0:55:20 > 0:55:22a net surplus for the Government which was
0:55:22 > 0:55:25then taken out of the city and spread to northern cities and
0:55:25 > 0:55:33elsewhere.
0:55:33 > 0:55:36If we can just keep some of the money we are generating our
0:55:36 > 0:55:39region to invest in our region we will generate even more.
0:55:39 > 0:55:41Can I just touch on the other point that was
0:55:41 > 0:55:42raised in the film about housing?
0:55:42 > 0:55:45That is key, that will put greater pressure on our infrastructure.
0:55:45 > 0:55:48But I think we need to be more innovative about how we can get
0:55:48 > 0:55:50young people onto the housing ladder.
0:55:50 > 0:55:52One of the ways is perhaps through pensions.
0:55:52 > 0:55:54We all make contributions now to workplace
0:55:54 > 0:55:57pensions, if you could use that money to invest in equity in your
0:55:57 > 0:56:00own home and slowly build up the equity in your own home and then
0:56:00 > 0:56:02ultimately release it again when you retire,
0:56:02 > 0:56:04that is an innovative way that we could potentially help
0:56:04 > 0:56:05people.
0:56:05 > 0:56:07Is that something the Government is thinking about?
0:56:07 > 0:56:10It's certainly something we are Milton
0:56:10 > 0:56:13Keynes are encouraging the Government to think about and it is
0:56:13 > 0:56:14high up on my agenda.
0:56:14 > 0:56:15Is the Government listening?
0:56:15 > 0:56:16The Government always listens!
0:56:16 > 0:56:19But we also need to look at the mix of houses, so not
0:56:19 > 0:56:23just houses to buy, it is affordable housing, houses to rent.
0:56:23 > 0:56:26And looking at the skills.
0:56:26 > 0:56:29We have got 10,000 with planning permission already in
0:56:29 > 0:56:30Bedford Borough and the ability to build
0:56:30 > 0:56:32out is very difficult because
0:56:32 > 0:56:34there isn't the skills and raw materials to build.
0:56:34 > 0:56:37The housing companies at the moment do not want
0:56:37 > 0:56:40to build because actually affects their bottom line.
0:56:40 > 0:56:46We come back to what you say, in a way you do not
0:56:46 > 0:56:48want those house is because you don't have the infrastructure.
0:56:48 > 0:56:50It's a more complicated picture than just
0:56:50 > 0:56:51building houses.
0:56:51 > 0:56:54We do need them because we have lots of people that
0:56:54 > 0:56:57are homeless and people living with parents way beyond the age
0:56:57 > 0:56:59they used to and we need to have houses for
0:56:59 > 0:57:02those people to move out and start their life on their own.
0:57:02 > 0:57:05But we need to look at the first - last mile so
0:57:05 > 0:57:06they can get the infrastructure.
0:57:06 > 0:57:09This is the point, the driver for our growth should be economic
0:57:09 > 0:57:10growth, not simply building houses.
0:57:10 > 0:57:12And we need to get our fair share of money,
0:57:12 > 0:57:14which we do not get at the
0:57:14 > 0:57:15moment.
0:57:15 > 0:57:17You're not going to let him have the last word.
0:57:23 > 0:57:28Head teachers, including those from Essex, marched on Downing
0:57:28 > 0:57:36Street this week to lobby for a fairer funding for their schools.
0:57:36 > 0:57:38Problems with policing in Hertfordshire and Bedfordshire were
0:57:38 > 0:57:41raised in front of the home affairs select committee, where the county's
0:57:41 > 0:57:43police and crime commissioners called for more money.
0:57:43 > 0:57:47We are only talking around about £1 a week.
0:57:47 > 0:57:49I think even those who are just about
0:57:49 > 0:57:52managing can probably find a pound a week.
0:57:52 > 0:57:55The MP for Bury St Edmunds caused consternation in the Commons
0:57:55 > 0:58:02over this weekend's Saint Edmunds Day celebrations.
0:58:02 > 0:58:04This weekend celebrates Saint Edmunds Day,
0:58:04 > 0:58:06commemorating Edmund the martry, Some of whom
0:58:06 > 0:58:13think he should be the first patron saint of the UK and not St George.
0:58:13 > 0:58:17While Priti Patel, who recently resigned
0:58:17 > 0:58:20as Secretary of State for International Aid, following a
0:58:20 > 0:58:21little trouble over unauthorised meetings
0:58:21 > 0:58:22in Israel, made light of
0:58:22 > 0:58:27her plight.
0:58:27 > 0:58:31I am speaking today in this debate following an intensive
0:58:31 > 0:58:36course over the past week, it's fair to say, on how
0:58:36 > 0:58:41on how to stage an exit.
0:58:41 > 0:58:43Which was the focus of a degree of international attention.
0:58:43 > 0:58:45Let's just talk about that hole in the police
0:58:45 > 0:58:46budgets.
0:58:46 > 0:58:49Because you are one of the areas where there has been lots of
0:58:49 > 0:58:51consternation about it.
0:58:51 > 0:58:53It's not going away, is it?
0:58:53 > 0:58:58No, but the whole public sector is, so I think it's
0:58:58 > 0:59:00right the commissioner asked for more money.
0:59:00 > 0:59:02It's ironic that in her campaign she actually criticised the
0:59:02 > 0:59:07previous commissioner for asking for more money
0:59:07 > 0:59:08but she is right now to ask.
0:59:08 > 0:59:11But it has cost the public sector, trying to deliver social
0:59:11 > 0:59:14services, it's remarkably difficult when we have the massive cuts that
0:59:14 > 0:59:15we're having.
0:59:15 > 0:59:17Police budgets, there is not a police force that has
0:59:17 > 0:59:21enough money.
0:59:21 > 0:59:24Let's remind ourselves that police budgets
0:59:24 > 0:59:26are effectively fixed until 2019-20 in real terms.
0:59:26 > 0:59:27That is good news.
0:59:27 > 0:59:36In Milton Keynes we have just got 15 extra officers.
0:59:36 > 0:59:38I was speaking to our police commander this
0:59:38 > 0:59:40week and there is a major refurbishment of the police station
0:59:40 > 0:59:41going on.
0:59:41 > 0:59:43Of course there is pressure on public sector,
0:59:43 > 0:59:46particularly pay, which is why we have the eight independent
0:59:46 > 0:59:48commissions looking at that and the Chancellor has already
0:59:48 > 0:59:51indicated we will be moving away from the 1%.
0:59:51 > 0:59:53You have a police forces across the region either
0:59:53 > 0:59:55cutting or doing away with their extra police.
0:59:55 > 0:59:57Forgive me, I speak from Milton Keynes, where we
0:59:57 > 0:59:59have just got 15 extra front when police officers.
0:59:59 > 1:00:08There are innovative things you can do...
1:00:08 > 1:00:16Cloud are going across the region. -- PSCOs.
1:00:16 > 1:00:20Not in Milton Keynes. There is innovative things so we have police
1:00:20 > 1:00:24officers based in the town hall and so we are shipping facilities with
1:00:24 > 1:00:30them. There is so much more for them to have to do these days.
1:00:30 > 1:00:33I am not dismissing the challenge but there is innovations we can
1:00:33 > 1:00:39carry out and as we both said, there is more police officers in both of
1:00:39 > 1:00:43our humanities. But you will talk to people in the
1:00:43 > 1:00:48street and they will say they want to see a policeman on the beat.
1:00:48 > 1:00:54There are challenges and this is one of the things the Chancellor will be
1:00:54 > 1:00:58looking at in the budget. More money for police, do you think?
1:00:58 > 1:01:04Well, I hope we will work across a range of things. Are you looking
1:01:04 > 1:01:09forward to the budget? I always look forward to the budget.Of course.
1:01:09 > 1:01:13Let's see what comes. I would rather be doing this programme this week
1:01:13 > 1:01:19than next week. Does that tell us something? Thank
1:01:19 > 1:01:25you to both of you. That is all from us. You can watch this programme on
1:01:25 > 1:01:29the BBC iPlayer on our website. We will be back at the
1:01:37 > 1:01:40Philip Hammond will deliver his Budget on Wednesday -
1:01:40 > 1:01:43he's moved it to the Autumn if you remember - and he'll be
1:01:43 > 1:01:45hoping it can help re-define the Government in the eyes
1:01:45 > 1:01:46of the public.
1:01:46 > 1:01:50But when it comes to the economy, do people trust
1:01:50 > 1:01:51the Conservatives, or Labour?
1:01:51 > 1:01:56Here's Ellie Price with the moodbox.
1:01:56 > 1:02:04MUSIC: The Road to Nowhere by Talking Heads.
1:02:04 > 1:02:07All eyes will be on the Chancellor this week as we find out
1:02:07 > 1:02:09what he has been cooking up in his Budget.
1:02:09 > 1:02:12So we have pulled off the A1 near Peterborough to ask people here
1:02:12 > 1:02:15who they trust with the economy - is it the Chancellor,
1:02:15 > 1:02:22Philip Hammond, or is it Labour's John McDonnell?
1:02:22 > 1:02:25No 7.
1:02:25 > 1:02:30Which one's Tory?
1:02:37 > 1:02:38I voted Conservative for the last two
1:02:38 > 1:02:43elections, don't feel very confident now, so I'm going to swap.
1:02:43 > 1:02:45If I said to you which of these characters
1:02:45 > 1:02:47would you trust with the economy, what would you say?
1:02:47 > 1:02:49The one who's currently running it, because they
1:02:49 > 1:02:51seem to be bringing the deficit down.
1:02:51 > 1:02:52Labour.
1:02:52 > 1:02:53Why?
1:02:53 > 1:02:56Because I'm an NHS worker.
1:02:56 > 1:02:59For me, it's just about spending, public spending.
1:02:59 > 1:03:04Labour always overspend.
1:03:04 > 1:03:10John McDonnell, I think capitalism as we know it is tanked
1:03:10 > 1:03:15and I think we need a radical re-think.
1:03:15 > 1:03:17Broken his egg, who do you trust more on the economy?
1:03:17 > 1:03:18No one.
1:03:18 > 1:03:21Why?
1:03:21 > 1:03:26Because they never come up trumps with anything that they
1:03:26 > 1:03:27reckon they're going to do.
1:03:27 > 1:03:30If I had to make you choose one of them?
1:03:30 > 1:03:32The man that's there, Hammond.
1:03:32 > 1:03:33I wouldn't trust Philip Hammond with a
1:03:33 > 1:03:39bag of marbles or a plastic ball!
1:03:39 > 1:03:40Hello, Bob.
1:03:40 > 1:03:41Oh, hello.
1:03:41 > 1:03:43Who do you trust more on the economy?
1:03:43 > 1:03:44Oh, the Conservatives.
1:03:44 > 1:03:46Do you? Why's that?
1:03:46 > 1:03:48I just think they're better for the small businessman.
1:03:48 > 1:03:50We need a Maggie or a Winston Churchill,
1:03:50 > 1:03:53somebody in there with balls to say, right,
1:03:53 > 1:03:55that's the direction we are
1:03:55 > 1:03:57going in, that's what we are going to do.
1:03:57 > 1:03:59I've got balls!
1:03:59 > 1:04:01What are you doing?
1:04:01 > 1:04:08Putting balls in holes by the look of it!
1:04:08 > 1:04:10I suppose the lesser of the two evils is anything but Tory,
1:04:10 > 1:04:13but I say that without a great deal of conviction.
1:04:13 > 1:04:16Having grown up in the '70s with all the rubbish on the
1:04:16 > 1:04:17streets, the strikes, the unions.
1:04:17 > 1:04:21Re-nationalisation and they're going to spend a lot of money
1:04:21 > 1:04:27and increase taxes and it will pull the country down.
1:04:27 > 1:04:30I've seen an awful loft of all-day breakfasts today, but it
1:04:30 > 1:04:33is clearing up time here at the diner and time
1:04:33 > 1:04:35to reveal the Moodbox.
1:04:35 > 1:04:37Take it away, Tim.
1:04:37 > 1:04:40As you can say it was a close-run thing, but
1:04:40 > 1:04:42like any fiscally responsible Chancellor, I've done my maths and
1:04:42 > 1:04:49counted and Philip Hammond got six more votes than John McDonnell.
1:04:49 > 1:04:53Oh, chip, thank you very much!
1:04:53 > 1:04:55That was Ellie and the entirely unscientific Moodbox,
1:04:55 > 1:04:57at the Stibbington diner near Peterborough.
1:04:57 > 1:05:00But for a slightly more scientific understanding of how the public view
1:05:00 > 1:05:03the parties on this and other issues, let's have a look
1:05:03 > 1:05:05at some recent polling.
1:05:05 > 1:05:07Here's where the Conservatives and Labour stood on the economy back
1:05:07 > 1:05:10when the Prime Minister called the snap election in April,
1:05:10 > 1:05:13when the Conservatives had a big lead, as they did in many
1:05:13 > 1:05:15other areas.
1:05:15 > 1:05:19The most recent poll by the same company reckoned Labour had narrowed
1:05:19 > 1:05:21the gap significantly, as they have in other areas,
1:05:21 > 1:05:26although they're still 10 points behind the Tories on this issue.
1:05:26 > 1:05:29And there was another survey much discussed at Westminster this week,
1:05:29 > 1:05:35showing that while the gap between Theresa May
1:05:35 > 1:05:37and Jeremy Corbyn has narrowed drastically since that pre-election
1:05:37 > 1:05:39period, Mrs May is, despite her many problems,
1:05:39 > 1:05:41still pretty much level-pegging in polling terms or
1:05:41 > 1:05:42even slightly ahead.
1:05:42 > 1:05:44And when it comes to how people intend to vote
1:05:44 > 1:05:47while the Tories are behind, there's no sign of a
1:05:47 > 1:05:49big Labour lead yet.
1:05:49 > 1:05:51Tony Blair thinks that, given the current "mess"
1:05:51 > 1:05:55inside the Government, Jeremy Corbyn's party should be
1:05:55 > 1:05:5810 or 15 points ahead.
1:05:58 > 1:06:01Well, many in Labour will find it easy to dismiss both Tony Blair
1:06:01 > 1:06:04and the opinion polls, as they both called the last election entirely
1:06:04 > 1:06:11wrong, so what if anything do these polls tell us?
1:06:11 > 1:06:19Let's turn to our expert panel. Labour are now eight points on the
1:06:19 > 1:06:23economy, according to a poll. Why is there a gap between Labour and the
1:06:23 > 1:06:30Tories?There seems to be a deep-seated reservation in the minds
1:06:30 > 1:06:33of many voters. They look at Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell and
1:06:33 > 1:06:39imagine them in charge of the country, the finances, national
1:06:39 > 1:06:42security, and think... It is unfashionable to point out in many
1:06:42 > 1:06:46circles that Labour did not win the last election, and it didn't win it
1:06:46 > 1:06:53for that kind of reason. Jeremy Corbyn is very good at attracting
1:06:53 > 1:06:58and inspiring young people and people who had not voted before. We
1:06:58 > 1:07:04underestimated his capacity to do that. But he wasn't great at turning
1:07:04 > 1:07:09Tories to Labour, or sealing off those final reservations. The
1:07:09 > 1:07:13government have had a shambolic few weeks. We are tripping over
1:07:13 > 1:07:18resigning a cabinet ministers. They are fighting like ferrets. A lot of
1:07:18 > 1:07:21people are having a really tough time and looking at the government
1:07:21 > 1:07:25to help them, and are unimpressed with what they see. But there seems
1:07:25 > 1:07:33to be a final fence that Corbyn does not seem to be able to get over.
1:07:33 > 1:07:38Isn't Tony Blair right, that Labour should be 15 or 20 points ahead?I
1:07:38 > 1:07:42think he's completely wrong, and is revealing he is out of date. I think
1:07:42 > 1:07:45Labour are in a really good position. If you look at what they
1:07:45 > 1:07:51have achieved in the last year, going into Christmas 2016, Corbyn
1:07:51 > 1:07:58had just managed to avoid, had to re-fight Labour leadership contest.
1:07:58 > 1:08:05They were 20 points behind. Theresa May was at the top of her game.
1:08:05 > 1:08:09Through the general election and beyond it, they have continued to
1:08:09 > 1:08:14build their movement. They are very effective on social media. I think
1:08:14 > 1:08:19they are in a strong position, and they need about 60 seats to win the
1:08:19 > 1:08:25next general election. They will probably start with 25 of those. The
1:08:25 > 1:08:28fact that they are closing the gap on the economy suggests that a lot
1:08:28 > 1:08:33of voters are now giving them a chance or a hearing, which they
1:08:33 > 1:08:37certainly were not getting a year ago. I think they have done very
1:08:37 > 1:08:42well.Can they be confident with a slim lead against the government?I
1:08:42 > 1:08:47am slightly more with Tony Blair than with Iain. This goes back to
1:08:47 > 1:08:55that very general election result. A huge turnout for Labour for Jeremy
1:08:55 > 1:09:02Corbyn. If you asked that same 40% of people today, do you want Jeremy
1:09:02 > 1:09:06Corbyn to be Prime Minister? Where you really voting for Jeremy Corbyn
1:09:06 > 1:09:12to lead the British governmentanswer is no, because Theresa May still,
1:09:12 > 1:09:16despite the fact she is presiding over a shambolic cabinet, she has
1:09:16 > 1:09:23the most support for Prime Minister. The last general election may have
1:09:23 > 1:09:29just been a giant by-election, because everyone was so short that
1:09:29 > 1:09:33Theresa May would get in.The Chancellor Philip Hammond gave
1:09:33 > 1:09:40Labour a bit of a gift, when he said, there were not any unemployed
1:09:40 > 1:09:46people in Britain. A slip of the tongue. Was that damaging?You have
1:09:46 > 1:09:50to look at the context he was saying it in, which will not be the context
1:09:50 > 1:09:58of the Facebook meme you will get shortly. He was asked about future
1:09:58 > 1:10:09unemployment, and he was saying that when technological advances came,
1:10:09 > 1:10:14unemployment didn't materialise. They would not be able to use that
1:10:14 > 1:10:18against him so easily if it didn't have something that people think
1:10:18 > 1:10:22about the Conservative government, which is that they are out of touch,
1:10:22 > 1:10:26they have no idea about some people, that they refuse to see what they
1:10:26 > 1:10:31have done. People have that idea about the Conservatives, so to drop
1:10:31 > 1:10:38a bit of a clanger in that regard... The budget is on Wednesday, and also
1:10:38 > 1:10:41this week, the Brexit committee will be meeting. What will they be
1:10:41 > 1:10:46talking about and why does it matter?What Stephen Hammond said to
1:10:46 > 1:10:50you a few moments ago was fascinating. Tomorrow is going to be
1:10:50 > 1:10:56the big meeting. It is the negotiations committee. Nine or so
1:10:56 > 1:10:59ministers have recently been included in that, like Michael Gove.
1:10:59 > 1:11:04They are going to be talking about the money, precisely how much they
1:11:04 > 1:11:09offer in two weeks' time to meet this deadline in the December
1:11:09 > 1:11:12council for phase two. Michael Gove and Boris Johnson want to add in
1:11:12 > 1:11:18conditions. They want to say, we will give you this as long as we get
1:11:18 > 1:11:23that. What was fascinating with Stephen Hammond just now was that he
1:11:23 > 1:11:25revealed that it wasn't just the Brexiteers in Cabinet who want a
1:11:25 > 1:11:35more precise definition of what we are going for, it is the remainers
1:11:35 > 1:11:41as well.In the heart of the government, David Davis is trying to
1:11:41 > 1:11:48keep the bill as low as possible, possibly around 30%. The divorce
1:11:48 > 1:11:55Bill and future liabilities. Some in the civil service have suggested
1:11:55 > 1:12:01that it has to be 40 or above. What it reveals to me is really, it's
1:12:01 > 1:12:05another function of Britain not really having a proper Prime
1:12:05 > 1:12:11Minister. In normal circumstances, of course the Cabinet is divided. A
1:12:11 > 1:12:15strong leader would say, right, this is what is happening. This is where
1:12:15 > 1:12:21we are going. We will call it 35 or 40 billion. We will save to the
1:12:21 > 1:12:25European Union, there is the check, but it will not have a signature on
1:12:25 > 1:12:38it until we are satisfied with the next
1:12:44 > 1:12:46stage. The government is hampered by the lack of a strong personality who
1:12:46 > 1:12:49could do that, make a political play with other European leaders that
1:12:49 > 1:12:51might break the deadlock.Presumably that is why the full Cabinet have
1:12:51 > 1:12:54not discussed what the future Brexit deal will be.That is the
1:12:54 > 1:12:57astonishing thing. There has been no sort of vision of what Britain is
1:12:57 > 1:13:00going to look like after Brexit. We have got down in what the
1:13:00 > 1:13:05negotiation position for tomorrow will be. What does it look like in
1:13:05 > 1:13:08terms of immigration, trade with the rest of the world, what life will
1:13:08 > 1:13:13look like for ordinarily... Ordinary people?There are visions for this,
1:13:13 > 1:13:19but they will not agree on one. Is there such a thing as a Tory Cabinet
1:13:19 > 1:13:23Minister who could have one single vision without them all ripping each
1:13:23 > 1:13:27other's heads off? Probably not. Thank you.
1:13:27 > 1:13:29That's all for today.
1:13:29 > 1:13:31Join me again next Sunday at 11.00 here on BBC One.
1:13:31 > 1:13:35Until then, bye bye.