:00:46. > :00:52.Afternoon, folks, welcome to the Sunday Politics. The coalition
:00:52. > :00:58.presides over the weakest recovery for generations, but Labour's lead
:00:58. > :01:01.slumps to six percentage points. The Cameron referendum effect? The
:01:01. > :01:06.Prime Minister wants to negotiate a new, semi-detached relationship
:01:06. > :01:11.with the EU and put it to the British people. But what will the
:01:11. > :01:16.repatriation of powers to look like?
:01:16. > :01:22.Is Mr Cameron's plan achievable and would we be better or worse off
:01:22. > :01:26.outside the EU? The two sides go head-to-head.
:01:26. > :01:36.In London the mayor says he has an open mind on the impact of carbon
:01:36. > :01:37.
:01:37. > :01:42.emissions are climate change. When might that leave City Hall policy?
:01:42. > :01:47.With me as always, the best and the brightest political panel in the
:01:47. > :01:52.business, Isabel Oakeshott, Janan Ganesh, and Nick Watt are treating
:01:52. > :01:56.more regularly than Andy Murray loses grand slam finals.
:01:56. > :02:01.The economy is stagnating and living standards are falling, but
:02:01. > :02:05.the polls this morning see Labour's League falling to just 6% or 7%. It
:02:05. > :02:11.is not a lot when the Government should be at the height of its mid-
:02:11. > :02:15.term unpopularity. Labour strategies worry that Tory Euro-
:02:15. > :02:19.scepticism and the promise of an EU referendum are more popular with
:02:19. > :02:23.voters than some commentators think and could deny Labour an overall
:02:23. > :02:29.majority. Nick Clegg was asked if he could contemplate working with
:02:29. > :02:32.Ed Miliband. The attitude of working together in the national
:02:32. > :02:35.interest with politicians you do not agree with, because that is
:02:35. > :02:42.what the British people want you to do, is the attitude I have always
:02:42. > :02:45.had. I shall take that as yes? can take that as years I will
:02:45. > :02:50.always take a responsible role to make sure this country is properly
:02:50. > :02:54.governed. Joining me now at the Shadow Chief
:02:54. > :03:00.Secretary to the Treasury, Rachel Reeves. Thank you for a waiting for
:03:00. > :03:04.us today. Nick Clegg left the door open to a coalition with Labour.
:03:04. > :03:10.With your lead down to 6%, I guess you will be keeping the door open
:03:10. > :03:15.to the Lib Dems? Labour are going for a win at the next election and
:03:15. > :03:19.that is our ambition and we will see how many MPs Nick Clegg has got
:03:19. > :03:23.left after the next election. Labour want to win the next
:03:23. > :03:29.election. Your leader said there could be no Labour-led coalition
:03:29. > :03:36.with Nick Clegg in it. Is that still Labour's position? As I said,
:03:36. > :03:43.we want to win the next election and we want a Labour-led Government.
:03:43. > :03:46.If that is in the national interest. Could Nick Clegg be in? Nick Clegg
:03:47. > :03:51.has been on the wrong side of the debate on tuition fees, on the
:03:51. > :03:54.failed austerity measures and we think he has made the wrong
:03:54. > :03:59.decisions by the country. But it is up to the electorate to decide the
:03:59. > :04:03.result of the next election. We will have to work based on what the
:04:03. > :04:08.election delivers, but we are going for a win and we think that is
:04:08. > :04:13.achievable. It is interesting you say you are going for a win, but as
:04:13. > :04:18.we sit here this Sunday the economy is stagnating and might even be on
:04:18. > :04:24.the verge of a triple dip recession, living standards are being squeezed
:04:24. > :04:33.harder and longer than at any time since the 1920s and the core of
:04:33. > :04:36.Government policy is deficit- reduction and that has stalled. Why
:04:37. > :04:43.would the public trusts Mr Cameron and George Osborne on the economy
:04:43. > :04:48.rather than the Labour Party? recent poll put Labour and the
:04:48. > :04:52.Conservatives neck and neck on the economy. We lost the last election
:04:52. > :04:58.and we have got a long way to go before the next election and to win
:04:58. > :05:04.that people's trust. The numbers today in the polls, the Observer
:05:04. > :05:12.has Labour 13 points ahead. That was taken before Mr Cameron's
:05:12. > :05:16.Wednesday speech. The latest polls show 6% or 7%. Why is your lead
:05:16. > :05:20.down to 6%? There are lots of numbers out this week, but the
:05:20. > :05:24.important numbers are the numbers on the economy, which show that it
:05:24. > :05:29.shrunk. Most people are not going to be poring over the poles, they
:05:29. > :05:33.are going to be worried about their jobs, the cost of living and the UK
:05:33. > :05:36.economy. If the Prime Minister was governing international interest,
:05:36. > :05:41.he would be putting all his efforts into getting the economy growing
:05:41. > :05:47.and getting people back to work and reducing the cost of living for
:05:47. > :05:51.ordinary families. He is focusing on the pure party political protest
:05:51. > :05:58.-- a process, and that is why he made the speech on Wednesday. I am
:05:58. > :06:05.not sure he even believes in it because a few months ago he wrote
:06:05. > :06:10.against a referendum. Since 2009, this country has run a massive
:06:10. > :06:16.public sector deficits and under this Tory coalition led Government
:06:16. > :06:25.we had a 120 billion deficit two years ago, there will be another
:06:25. > :06:31.120 plus deficit this year. Why would a Labour deficit of 130
:06:31. > :06:36.billion mean more growth? What the IMF and Goldman Sachs and other
:06:36. > :06:41.people are saying is that the plan the Chancellor and Prime Minister
:06:41. > :06:51.and Nick Clegg have been pursuing has not worked and it is time for a
:06:51. > :06:52.
:06:52. > :06:57.Government to take stock. Austerity alone... The chief economist at the
:06:57. > :07:03.IMF only speaks for himself. But he has said it the economy does not
:07:03. > :07:08.start growing, the Government has to rethink its plans. Why would a
:07:08. > :07:12.bigger deficit result in more growth? We have at unprecedented
:07:12. > :07:17.deficits for four years. Why would a bigger deficit make any
:07:17. > :07:21.difference? What Labour are saying is we need to reduce the deficit
:07:21. > :07:26.back at a slower pace compared with what his Government had tried to do.
:07:26. > :07:30.The reality is that deficit is now increasing, not because they are
:07:30. > :07:35.rethinking their plan on austerity, but because by failing to secure
:07:35. > :07:39.the recovery borrowing is going up because tax revenues are not coming
:07:39. > :07:44.in and the welfare bill is going up and knock down because we have got
:07:44. > :07:48.more people out of work and more people in low-paid, temporary work
:07:48. > :07:51.and you end up having to pay more out in benefits. This Government is
:07:51. > :07:57.borrowing more because they are paying for their failed economic
:07:57. > :08:00.plan. Labour is say we should temporarily reduce VAT to help the
:08:00. > :08:04.struggling high-street and invest in infrastructure, positive plans
:08:04. > :08:10.that could create jobs and bring the deficit doubt in a sustainable
:08:10. > :08:17.way. Rachel Reeves, thank you for joining us from a rather windy
:08:17. > :08:22.Gloucestershire. White is the Labour Party not doing better?
:08:23. > :08:27.always thought, and I said last week, that David Cameron's speech
:08:27. > :08:31.would generate a short-term poll boost, but that is by the by. Even
:08:31. > :08:37.before this small dip in the Labour lead, the Labour lead was not very
:08:37. > :08:44.big. To be only 10 or 12 points ahead mid-term at a time when the
:08:44. > :08:50.economy is not growing was a feeble performance by historical standards,
:08:50. > :08:54.compared even to Michael Foot. And so this sudden shift over the
:08:54. > :09:00.weekend is not particularly significant. If I was a Labour
:09:00. > :09:06.strategist I would look at the performance last year. What is your
:09:06. > :09:11.theory? I do know that private polling shows that their lead is
:09:11. > :09:15.even soft bed and the polling we see today. But I have a slightly
:09:15. > :09:21.different perspective. I would have expected the Tory bounce Brumbies E
:09:21. > :09:27.U speech, long awaited that has had such a build up, I would have
:09:27. > :09:31.expected the bounce to be much more significant. The question is why
:09:31. > :09:37.are the Tories not doing better in the way of that so-called good news
:09:37. > :09:43.last week? Michael Foot was 18 points ahead of Mrs Thatcher at a
:09:43. > :09:47.time when the economy seemed to to be going down the Swanee under the
:09:47. > :09:52.Tories the last time. This time the economy is in a terrible shape and
:09:52. > :09:57.they can barely muster 6%. Labour is not in a good position because
:09:57. > :10:00.they are perceived not to have any credibility. There is a presumption
:10:00. > :10:05.if the Government is presiding over a difficult economic environment,
:10:05. > :10:11.the assumption is the opposition will have credibility. They will
:10:11. > :10:15.not necessarily. Nick Clegg today has put on the table that Alastair
:10:15. > :10:20.Darling cut capital spending too quickly. You may say it is absurd
:10:20. > :10:25.for him to say Labour our deficit deniers, but the challenge for
:10:26. > :10:29.Labour is that was part of the Alastair Darling plan. It is not 1
:10:30. > :10:35.million miles removed from what the Government is doing, so where is
:10:35. > :10:40.the Labour Party? They are saying the Government is to blame for a
:10:40. > :10:46.1930s style depression, and yet there plant was not that difficult
:10:46. > :10:50.but the coalition plan. George Osborne he thought by this stage
:10:50. > :10:54.the economy would be much better, even he thought by now the Tories
:10:54. > :10:59.would be 15-20 points behind, and the economy is much worse and he
:10:59. > :11:04.thought and they are nowhere near that far behind. What the Labour
:11:04. > :11:10.League consists of is the fact the Lib Dems are doing incredibly badly,
:11:10. > :11:15.and UKIP are doing incredibly well. If the Europe policy that Cameron
:11:15. > :11:24.expanded last week diminishes the UKIP support, it it is bad for
:11:24. > :11:29.Labour. If I was Ed Miliband I would worry if well the Lib Dem
:11:29. > :11:34.vote increase in the run-up to the next election, especially his -- if
:11:34. > :11:38.Nick Clegg is pushed aside? much unhappiness is there in the
:11:38. > :11:43.Labour Party that Ed Miliband seems to have stuck out so strongly
:11:43. > :11:47.against a referendum? There is significant unrest. When I heard
:11:47. > :11:53.him say that at Prime Minister's questions this week I thought that
:11:53. > :11:57.was a mistake. They tried to pull back later that day. Immediately
:11:57. > :12:01.afterwards his team were telling us all that they were only ruling it
:12:01. > :12:06.out for now. It was a strategic mistake. Having interviewed him
:12:06. > :12:11.myself for this week, he feels firmly he is taking a principled
:12:11. > :12:18.stand on this. It is time for the British people to have their say
:12:18. > :12:22.and time for us to have the question about Britain and Europe.
:12:23. > :12:28.The Prime Minister unveiled his promise of an in-out referendum in
:12:28. > :12:33.his long awaited speech on Europe. But if any referendum is to happen,
:12:33. > :12:36.it will be four years away and in the meantime what will the
:12:36. > :12:42.renegotiation achieve? Will satisfy the public or the Conservative
:12:42. > :12:46.Party? A fragrant start to the day. A trip
:12:46. > :12:50.to the New Covent Garden flower market. It is also a great place to
:12:50. > :12:56.explain how the rules of the single market and the rest of the EU
:12:56. > :13:01.affect us in the UK. On one hand there are no trade barriers to
:13:01. > :13:08.importing tulips from Amsterdam. On the other, the traders are affected
:13:08. > :13:11.by the red tape generated by the EU. We only import from Poland, so
:13:11. > :13:16.obviously the paperwork is a lot easier because they are a part of
:13:17. > :13:22.the EU. From the business side, there is not a lot of down sides to
:13:22. > :13:29.it, but from a personal side there is. Too much money. How much money
:13:29. > :13:33.do Reekie the EU every year? Billions. And all the problems with
:13:33. > :13:37.immigration and all the problems with the rules and regulations they
:13:37. > :13:43.impose on us. That is pretty much how the prime minister feels as
:13:43. > :13:46.well. He announced if he is re- elected he will renegotiate our
:13:46. > :13:50.membership to strengthen trade and we can Brussels bureaucracy and
:13:50. > :13:56.then he will put the deal to a referendum. When that referendum
:13:56. > :14:01.comes, if we can negotiate such an arrangement, I will campaign for it
:14:01. > :14:05.with all my heart and soul. what he did not say it was what
:14:05. > :14:10.exactly he will be bringing back from Brussels. I have come to the
:14:10. > :14:20.city to find out what is on the wish-list of one enthusiastic Euro-
:14:20. > :14:25.
:14:25. > :14:30.Isn't a problem with that that a lot of the regulations become quite
:14:30. > :14:33.comfortable? We are in something of an economic disaster and the root
:14:33. > :14:38.cause of that amongst other things is a lack of competitiveness with
:14:38. > :14:41.the rest of the world so we might have to be uncomfortable. They
:14:41. > :14:48.achieving this could mean David Cameron has to do something truly
:14:48. > :14:53.historic - negotiate a new EU treaty with his fellow heads of
:14:53. > :14:58.government single-handedly. The UK has not been the most enthusiastic
:14:58. > :15:04.for major constitutional change in the EU, but we have gone along with
:15:05. > :15:11.it. It would be unusual to have a major constitutional debate which
:15:11. > :15:16.is solely around the status and the particular circumstances of the
:15:16. > :15:21.state. Not impossible but we would be in uncharted territory. If the
:15:21. > :15:27.British public vote for really uncharted territory - leaving the
:15:27. > :15:31.EU entirely - how might it feel out in the cold? Economically, life
:15:31. > :15:37.would not be that different. We would not be thrown back to the
:15:37. > :15:43.Bronze Age, but we would pay a penalty, economically. We would be
:15:43. > :15:48.somewhat poorer for it, and we would be much more isolated. We
:15:48. > :15:53.would be a less influential country both in Europe and internationally.
:15:53. > :15:58.Back at the markets, they are a fairly patriotic lot, just like the
:15:59. > :16:05.Tories, who are now facing questions - will Britain bloom in
:16:05. > :16:12.the new Europe? Are we heading for the exit? Is David Cameron's
:16:12. > :16:20.strategy even possible? And the Europe Minister, David
:16:20. > :16:27.Lidington, joins us now for the Sunday Interview. The Tories led
:16:27. > :16:32.the Yes to Europe campaign in the 1975 referendum. Tory ministers
:16:32. > :16:37.signed the Maastricht treaty. Did David Cameron's speak represent a
:16:37. > :16:41.break with the past? No his speech was about the recognition of the
:16:41. > :16:47.fact a dramatic change is already taking place in Europe and Europe
:16:47. > :16:50.will change further. The speech was not just about the situation of the
:16:50. > :16:55.UK in the rest of Europe, it is about how the whole of Europe needs
:16:55. > :17:02.to respond to democratic accountability and getting the
:17:02. > :17:06.relationship right between the eurozone and the others. So David
:17:06. > :17:10.Cameron continues in the tradition of his predecessors? He made it
:17:10. > :17:15.clear that she sees Britain's national interest lying as it
:17:15. > :17:19.continued member and a leading positive member of the European
:17:19. > :17:28.Union, but a European Union that has reformed itself in response to
:17:28. > :17:33.global developments and the need for change in -- internally. So, he
:17:33. > :17:41.is not a Euro-sceptic? Who does not have a secret plot to get Britain
:17:41. > :17:45.out of the EU. There will be some of my colleagues who want to get
:17:45. > :17:48.Britain out of the European Union altogether. You will find some of
:17:49. > :17:53.those people in a number of political parties. The Prime
:17:53. > :17:57.Minister is about trying to get reforms for Europe that enable
:17:57. > :18:02.Europe to respond to the challenges it faces and get to a situation
:18:03. > :18:07.where the British people are comfortable as members. Less than
:18:07. > :18:10.two years ago, junior Tories in the government including your own
:18:10. > :18:19.Parliamentary Secretary had to resign because they voted for a
:18:20. > :18:24.referendum. What changed? What that debate and that vote was about in
:18:24. > :18:28.20th October 11 was over whether there should be a referendum when
:18:28. > :18:33.the future of Europe was very far from clear. What the Prime Minister
:18:33. > :18:38.is talking about is having a referendum in the UK to settle
:18:38. > :18:43.matters, to get the consent of the British people at the end of the
:18:43. > :18:53.process of negotiation and reform. Two different questions. Is it
:18:53. > :19:00.
:19:00. > :19:04.really? Let's look at what you I ask you again - what changed?
:19:05. > :19:12.is still the case when you look at the opinion polls that Europe ranks
:19:12. > :19:18.below issues like the economy in people's minds. What has changed...
:19:18. > :19:20.They wanted a referendum. Are you now giving them a referendum?
:19:20. > :19:26.Critically I think we do have greater clarity about the direction
:19:26. > :19:30.in which Europe was heading. In 2011 when that debate took place,
:19:30. > :19:35.there was considerable doubt including around the continent of
:19:35. > :19:39.Europe as to what would happen with the eurozone. Were they going to
:19:39. > :19:46.stand behind their currency and press for greater integration or
:19:46. > :19:53.not? It is clear now that our colleagues will need further
:19:53. > :19:57.integration which has consequences for the euro, which requires
:19:57. > :20:05.further negotiation to get that settled. It is fair to say to the
:20:05. > :20:11.British people at the end of that process, you have the final say.
:20:11. > :20:19.you owe him an apology? Adam and I always got on before he resigned.
:20:19. > :20:22.The you owe him an apology? I don't think so. The debate that took
:20:22. > :20:27.place in 2011 was over a different matter, over having a referendum at
:20:27. > :20:31.that time when there was no certainty. We are talking about
:20:31. > :20:38.having a referendum in the next Parliament at a stage after a
:20:38. > :20:43.negotiation has taken place. There is no certainty that the moment and
:20:43. > :20:52.the reason I dwell on this is can you understand why people don't
:20:53. > :20:59.trust you on the referendum. Now you want a referendum, and a cast-
:20:59. > :21:04.iron guarantee over the Lisbon treaty turned out to be written on
:21:04. > :21:11.sound, said David Cameron. No, he said if it had not come into force,
:21:11. > :21:17.we would hold a referendum. In this famous article in the Sun, he did
:21:17. > :21:21.not put that caviar it in. He and William Hague have said very
:21:21. > :21:28.consistently that the referendum was linked to whether Lisbon came
:21:28. > :21:37.into force or not, and when it did, he and William Hague made public
:21:37. > :21:41.statements to say that that matter was now closed. We have been
:21:41. > :21:47.through the cuttings and know where did Mr Cameron make it clear he was
:21:47. > :21:55.only talking about a situation in which Lisbon had not become law.
:21:55. > :21:59.They have clear recollection of what he said at that time. What the
:21:59. > :22:02.Prime Minister's speech achieved this week amongst other things was
:22:02. > :22:07.to separate the debate about the merits of British membership of
:22:07. > :22:12.Europe on the one hand from this genuine sense of public grievance
:22:12. > :22:18.which I accept exists that people have not had their say. Now they
:22:18. > :22:22.will. There prime minister says the 2015 Tory manifesto will ask for a
:22:22. > :22:28.mandate to renegotiate powers from Brussels back to Westminster. Will
:22:28. > :22:36.you set out exactly what the powers that you aim to renegotiate will
:22:36. > :22:39.be? So Italy there will be in the manifesto a description... It is
:22:39. > :22:44.too early to say what level of detail about the approach the Prime
:22:44. > :22:47.Minister will take, but what a Conservative government would take
:22:47. > :22:51.at that stage. Certainly there would be clarity about the
:22:51. > :22:59.principles that will inform our approach to that negotiation.
:23:00. > :23:08.you specify... What is not sensible is for any party or government to
:23:08. > :23:11.set out in public the full detail of negotiations. For when you
:23:11. > :23:21.specify in the irreducible minimum of powers that need to be
:23:21. > :23:23.
:23:23. > :23:27.repatriated before you can say we stayed in Europe? As part of the
:23:27. > :23:32.process we will be looking at what the coalition is doing in reviewing
:23:32. > :23:36.all the areas of policy which the EU now has an influence over,
:23:36. > :23:40.looking at particular what British business says, or whether they
:23:40. > :23:47.think there is any important things of value to hang on to, but also
:23:47. > :23:57.where they want changes. Let me see if I can help - this is what the
:23:57. > :24:13.
:24:13. > :24:18.He will have to wait and see exactly what comes out. It is not a
:24:18. > :24:26.question of not telling you. well, you aren't telling me. I will
:24:26. > :24:30.tell you the manifesto for 2015 has not been written. Your party has
:24:30. > :24:37.started this debate so I do think you owe it to people to give a
:24:37. > :24:42.general indication. Curbs on the free movement of peoples within the
:24:42. > :24:48.EU, are they on your shopping list? Free movement is an important
:24:48. > :24:53.principle to which every country has subscribed. 1.5 million British
:24:53. > :24:58.people are living or working... am simply asking you a question -
:24:58. > :25:03.will that be on your shopping list? We are looking at whether there are
:25:03. > :25:08.measures which should be taking with regard to our own system on
:25:08. > :25:13.social security and other matters that would curb abuses. The can do
:25:13. > :25:18.that anyway without renegotiating Europe. Britain will remain open to
:25:18. > :25:24.immigrants from every country in the EU - correct? We will be
:25:25. > :25:28.looking at all areas of EU competence, and we will decide what
:25:28. > :25:34.goes in our manifesto towards the end of that process. What is
:25:34. > :25:38.already happening is that reforms are taking place. The emphasis the
:25:38. > :25:42.Prime Minister placed on competitiveness, we are seeing it
:25:42. > :25:49.in the discussions on fisheries and other matters. They Prime Minister
:25:49. > :25:59.says he wants the EU to lay the foundations of an ever closer union
:25:59. > :26:01.
:26:01. > :26:05.It beggars belief, doesn't it, that the rest of Europe is going to
:26:05. > :26:12.overturn that principle. What the Prime Minister said was there that
:26:12. > :26:15.principle of a closer union between peoples is often been interpreted
:26:15. > :26:19.as a closer union between states and pointing towards a federal
:26:19. > :26:26.model perhaps like Germany is organised at the moment and he
:26:26. > :26:33.wants it clear that there is an ambition that we in Britain don't
:26:33. > :26:39.see ourselves as heading towards that. He will not change that? That
:26:39. > :26:42.will not be changed? It is premature to be pouring doom and
:26:42. > :26:47.gloom upon the prospects of negotiation when the feedback I get
:26:47. > :26:51.in my conversations from other governments around Europe is that
:26:51. > :26:55.there is an appetite for measures that will improve competitiveness
:26:55. > :26:59.as David Cameron said, and a recognition there is a problem with
:26:59. > :27:04.democratic accountability. Let me ask you another - will you aim to
:27:04. > :27:13.repatriate powers of Britain to do its own trade agreements with other
:27:13. > :27:18.countries? Again, the detailed you will have to wait for the manifesto.
:27:18. > :27:21.The government's position is that there is real value to be had from
:27:21. > :27:26.the common voice on-trade that we get through membership of the
:27:26. > :27:32.European Union. The leverage we get by the EU acting with a greater
:27:32. > :27:38.voice... Sir trade deals will continue to be done by Europe. Many
:27:38. > :27:44.Tory backbenchers don't trust you to bring back enough powers from
:27:44. > :27:48.Brussels. Can you assure them some of your more Euro-sceptic Cabinet
:27:48. > :27:52.colleagues will play a prominent role in the negotiations? It will
:27:52. > :27:57.be for the Prime Minister to decide if the Conservative Party wins the
:27:57. > :28:01.next election who he has in his cabinet. That will be a matter for
:28:01. > :28:06.him and all of those Cabinet members will be involved in
:28:06. > :28:11.European policy. At the moment you have people from right across the
:28:11. > :28:15.Conservative Party and from the Liberal Democrats sitting together
:28:15. > :28:21.in Cabinet committees working out a common approach on Europe. It does
:28:21. > :28:25.work pretty well. Is there not a real risk for David Cameron that he
:28:25. > :28:32.may succeed in bringing back enough powers to satisfy him and to
:28:32. > :28:39.satisfy you, but nowhere near enough to satisfy your party? And
:28:39. > :28:49.there you therefore risk an historic split? If ferries and in-
:28:49. > :29:02.
:29:02. > :29:07.out referendum, only 23% would vote Does polls tend to be of people who
:29:07. > :29:14.would contact them anyway. I think the majority of people within the
:29:14. > :29:19.Conservative Party want to be members of a European club, but one
:29:19. > :29:25.that is reformed, which has more competitive and is more democratic.
:29:25. > :29:29.It may bring back enough to satisfy you, but not them. The crucial test
:29:29. > :29:35.is whether it satisfies the British people. That is going to be
:29:35. > :29:40.ultimately the test. Let me ask you this. If the rest of Europe fails
:29:40. > :29:43.to play ball and agrees to the repatriation of next to nothing,
:29:43. > :29:51.would it follow that you and the Prime Minister would campaign for a
:29:51. > :29:54.vote to get out? We are not starting by talking about failure.
:29:54. > :30:00.You are trying to kick this question into touch. If you do not
:30:00. > :30:05.get what you need, we used day out? At the end of the day if the
:30:05. > :30:10.British people think what has come back is inadequate, they will vote.
:30:10. > :30:14.You have to take a view. We will take a judgment as those
:30:14. > :30:19.negotiations go on. I come back to the point that your question seems
:30:19. > :30:24.to assume that it is Britain on its own arguing against 26 other
:30:24. > :30:30.countries and that is very far from the case. We have a lot of support
:30:30. > :30:37.on issues of competitiveness and flexibility. We will see how much
:30:37. > :30:40.support you have when we see what you get back. Are you happy for
:30:40. > :30:46.colleagues to say that unless there is a major repatriation of powers,
:30:46. > :30:50.they will campaign to withdraw? That is a matter for the individual
:30:50. > :30:53.candidates, but they will want to take very careful account of what
:30:53. > :30:59.the Prime Minister will say as party leader in terms of the
:30:59. > :31:05.overall approach. It is hard to see you ever campaigning for Britain to
:31:05. > :31:10.withdraw. I have made no secret of the fact that I believe Britain's
:31:10. > :31:16.national interest lies in being a member of the EU, but I also accept
:31:16. > :31:21.the EU needs pretty fundamental reform or prosperity right across
:31:21. > :31:25.Europe will suffer. You will not campaign to come about? I will want
:31:25. > :31:30.to see what comes out at the end of the negotiations and I trust David
:31:30. > :31:33.Cameron to deliver it for us. sceptics and Europhiles are already
:31:33. > :31:40.rehearsing the arguments in the run-up to a referendum on
:31:40. > :31:46.membership of the EU in 2017. If Britain decides to leave, what
:31:46. > :31:51.would be at risk. At the centre of the debate will be her membership
:31:51. > :31:56.affects the economy. Some say the single market is vital for our
:31:56. > :32:02.prosperity. But critics say the exports is exaggerated and the real
:32:02. > :32:06.figure is more like 41. We also have a trade deficit, meaning we
:32:06. > :32:12.buy more than we sell and we trade more with the rest of the world.
:32:12. > :32:18.How much all this is worth is hotly-contested. The European
:32:18. > :32:25.Commission says between �30 billion, and �90 billion a year to the UK
:32:25. > :32:30.economy. Last year, the UK made a net contribution of �6.9 billion.
:32:30. > :32:37.Estimates of how much it might cost in other ways vary widely. One
:32:37. > :32:42.Business Group says EU regulation costs about �7.4 billion a year.
:32:42. > :32:48.One study by a UKIP MEP has claimed that once all red tape and all
:32:48. > :32:54.other factors are taken into account, being in the EU costs
:32:54. > :32:59.�67.5 billion ear. But the present and previous governments have said
:32:59. > :33:03.that 3.5 million jobs are linked in some way to trade with the EU. But
:33:03. > :33:08.that is not the same thing as saying they depend on the EU.
:33:08. > :33:13.Critics argue there could be a jobs boom wants smaller companies are
:33:13. > :33:18.freed from the regulation. Joining us now is the Liberal Democrat
:33:19. > :33:27.Sharon Bowles, chair -- chair of the European Monetary Affairs
:33:27. > :33:32.Committee, and Daniel Hannan from the Conservatives. What makes you
:33:32. > :33:36.think the rest of Europe will agree to a major repatriation of powers
:33:36. > :33:40.back to Britain? I have no idea whether they will and anybody who
:33:40. > :33:47.tells you with a authority they will or they won't, is deluding
:33:47. > :33:51.themselves. A like the Europe Minister? We'll only know when the
:33:51. > :33:56.question is answered. I have spent 14 years in Europe asking people
:33:56. > :34:02.and the only honest answer is, we will know when the moment comes.
:34:02. > :34:07.think some of what we require is achievable, but I'm not sure it is
:34:07. > :34:12.going to be done in terms of we want to repatriate in a kind of
:34:12. > :34:16.unilateral wave. We can do it in a multi- lateral way through the
:34:16. > :34:20.normal legislative procedure and we can make progress. But it is not
:34:20. > :34:27.the British plan to do it multilaterally. The German foreign
:34:28. > :34:32.minister said Britain could not cherry-pick. Britain is like
:34:32. > :34:35.joining a football club and wanting to play rugby. If that is the
:34:35. > :34:40.attitude, then I will be campaigning to leave and I hope
:34:40. > :34:45.that British people will have the common sense to see we can have a
:34:45. > :34:51.friendly relationship based on participation in the single market,
:34:51. > :34:58.like the Swiss, but on the basis we run our own affairs. I would hope
:34:58. > :35:01.they would be a very substantial note vote. The problem with what we
:35:01. > :35:06.have done now is we have invited the opposition team into the
:35:06. > :35:10.dressing room before the game and given away all our strategy, so
:35:10. > :35:15.those who do not want to give us things can gird their loins and be
:35:16. > :35:23.ready. But some of it is achievable and to talk about it in unilateral
:35:23. > :35:27.ways is wrong. Should be a con about this trying to wrap it up in
:35:27. > :35:32.a grand reform of Europe rather than saying we are Britain and we
:35:32. > :35:37.want this and this and this, whether the rest of you want or not.
:35:37. > :35:41.That is what the Prime Minister is doing. He is wrapping it up in a
:35:41. > :35:46.grand reform. In my view, the important thing he said on
:35:46. > :35:52.Wednesday was if we cannot get a general devolution of power, then
:35:52. > :35:56.we will seek unilateral repatriation. My tests of a
:35:56. > :36:00.successful repatriation would be very different from those that
:36:00. > :36:03.David was setting egg. It is important we should be able to sign
:36:03. > :36:11.independent trade agreements with the bits of the world that are
:36:11. > :36:14.growing. He ruled that out. I think it is critical when we are confined
:36:14. > :36:19.in this dwindling customs union that we have the freedom to trade
:36:19. > :36:24.abroad. It is critical our budget contributions fault. They have
:36:25. > :36:30.wiped out all of our austerities savings. It is critical we have the
:36:30. > :36:35.supremacy of British law on domestic issues in the UK. Is there
:36:35. > :36:39.not a danger that if the Europeans treat our request for repatriation
:36:40. > :36:46.with contempt, or what we think is content, it will only fuel at Euro-
:36:46. > :36:52.scepticism? The mood music is all wrong. We ought to be making common
:36:52. > :36:56.cause with other European countries on the competitiveness of gender.
:36:56. > :37:01.The Poles wanted to do this when they took over their presidency,
:37:01. > :37:04.but the euro-zone crisis took everybody's energy. A our policy
:37:04. > :37:08.for 40 years has been to get into their and argue the case and turn
:37:08. > :37:14.it into something that it is not. There comes a point when you have
:37:14. > :37:19.to say, we have given it our best shot. Therefore, the question is
:37:19. > :37:23.are we going to be part of what we are doing? If not, what kind of
:37:23. > :37:28.relationship? But you are ignoring the changes that have already
:37:28. > :37:31.happened. If you take the working- time directive, if you look at the
:37:31. > :37:34.countries that are in programmes because they have got into
:37:34. > :37:39.difficulties, the structural reforms they are making means they
:37:39. > :37:44.are having to open up their labour markets in a way they have not
:37:44. > :37:50.before. Next time round, they are far more likely to be talking in
:37:50. > :37:54.the same line as the UK. The in the years you and I have been in the
:37:54. > :37:58.European Parliament, Britain has assimilated more than 3000 EU
:37:59. > :38:05.directives every year. How many have been repealed? Give me an
:38:05. > :38:10.example of something that has been returned to the United States?
:38:10. > :38:15.accept there was a lot of a body of legislation, but I do not know, I
:38:15. > :38:20.am dealing with financial services legislation. Are you against
:38:20. > :38:24.repatriation of powers? I am not against it, but if the each chooses
:38:24. > :38:29.not to have something in a given area, it is automatically
:38:29. > :38:33.repatriated for everybody. His we talk about it in those terms, we
:38:33. > :38:39.stand much more chance that if we want to unilaterally grab it back
:38:39. > :38:43.the UK and never mind what happens to the other people. It is clear
:38:43. > :38:48.that if the repatriation is not substantial, you will campaign to
:38:48. > :38:54.leave the EU? Yes. Do you think you will carry the bulk of the Tory
:38:54. > :38:59.party with you on that you? I think so. That is the current opinion-
:38:59. > :39:03.poll evidence of the members, of the MPs and more importantly of the
:39:03. > :39:08.voters, but I do not think that is the key question. The key point is
:39:08. > :39:13.not whether the Tory party the votes to accept or reject it, it is
:39:13. > :39:16.whether the British people as a whole do. If 14 years in the
:39:16. > :39:20.European Parliament has taught me anything it is that people are up
:39:20. > :39:25.more wise than their leaders and we have left it to ministers to decide
:39:25. > :39:31.whether the deal is good enough. I will put my trust in the British
:39:31. > :39:36.people. You are watching Sunday Politics. Coming up: I will be
:39:36. > :39:46.looking at the week ahead with our political panel. Until then, it is
:39:46. > :39:50.
:39:50. > :39:54.Sunday Politics across the UK. Welcome. Coming up later: The Mayor
:39:54. > :39:57.says he has an open mind on the impact of carbon emissions on
:39:57. > :40:02.climate change. What is he currently doing about his and could
:40:02. > :40:09.a shift of emphasis be on the way? Turning this Stephen Timms, Labour
:40:09. > :40:15.MP for East Ham, and a Conservative MP for Battersea, Jane Ellison.
:40:15. > :40:19.Difficult to escape top of Europe this week. What will the Prime
:40:19. > :40:25.Minister's announcements over Europe mean for London? Good or bad
:40:25. > :40:30.news? Overall good news because for a long time some of London's keep
:40:30. > :40:35.industries have been very worried about the burden of regulation
:40:35. > :40:38.coming from the EU. The fact that for example the Lunt -- London
:40:38. > :40:45.Stock Exchange welcomed the speech and that his stance is quite
:40:45. > :40:48.telling. The aim of working towards a more open Europe, competing in
:40:48. > :40:54.the single market, trying to fight back some of that tide of
:40:54. > :40:58.regulation, overall medium to long term that is good for London's key
:40:58. > :41:02.industries. I think it is bad news for London because of the
:41:02. > :41:06.uncertainty it creates. A referendum is going to take place
:41:06. > :41:11.in four years time and it means between now and then we are not
:41:11. > :41:15.going to know whether the UK will stay in the single market. Boris
:41:15. > :41:20.Johnson has been saying it is inconceivable we will leave, but
:41:20. > :41:24.now it is conceivable. It is a problem particularly with the
:41:24. > :41:31.economy in such difficult circumstances. If you were given
:41:31. > :41:36.one thing that you wanted to be repatriated before you could vote,
:41:36. > :41:40.perhaps relevant to London, London's economy, what would it be
:41:40. > :41:47.before you could vote to stay in? would start from the point of view
:41:47. > :41:50.of wanting to stay in any way. But I would be looking around the areas
:41:50. > :41:54.of financial-services to seize some rolling back of some of the
:41:54. > :41:57.regulation. But this is the beginning of a long process and the
:41:57. > :42:02.Prime Minister is being quite sensible not to put out a whole
:42:02. > :42:08.load of red lines. The response from Angela Merkel has been
:42:08. > :42:12.positive in terms of saying, we will work to find compromises. I
:42:12. > :42:19.think the EU wants Britain to stay in and particular a lot of the net
:42:19. > :42:24.contributing countries. Aren't Londoners going to take a look at
:42:24. > :42:30.Labour and say, we want one of these in the referendum, but Labour
:42:30. > :42:36.are not offering us that? We have not ruled out a referendum. It did
:42:36. > :42:40.not sound like that this week. is a mistake to be embarking on a
:42:40. > :42:44.process during such a long period of uncertainty. At a time when we
:42:44. > :42:49.have to bring in new investments and the private sector investments
:42:49. > :42:55.from the world, if people are not confident we will continue to be in
:42:55. > :42:59.Europe, the real danger of losing some of that investment is there.
:42:59. > :43:06.Two years down the line, do you accept Labour may have to finesse
:43:06. > :43:12.his position? There does need to be a referendum? The uncertainty the
:43:12. > :43:15.referendum creates in four years time, that is damaging to the
:43:15. > :43:20.economy and to prospects for investment. At the moment that
:43:20. > :43:24.should be the top of the Government's list of priorities.
:43:24. > :43:29.That is the whole reason for saying this now. The latest employment
:43:29. > :43:32.figures were seen as encouraging news for the capital. Unemployment
:43:32. > :43:39.fell at one of the fastest rates in the country, but are they full-time
:43:39. > :43:42.and jobs to last? Positive news on the employment front with
:43:42. > :43:46.McDonnell's announcing 400 new jobs in the capital, a figure which the
:43:46. > :43:50.Government says is part of the bigger picture. The headline
:43:50. > :44:00.figures look encouraging, unemployment in London Curragh is
:44:00. > :44:16.
:44:16. > :44:23.stands at 350,000, with the rate of This address the underlying pattern
:44:23. > :44:28.could be a shift in the way Londoners work. Joining me here,
:44:28. > :44:32.John Burton, director for development in the West field
:44:32. > :44:37.shopping centre. Whilst there is this uncertainty, unemployment
:44:38. > :44:41.coming down. We know that there has not been enough growth, but you are
:44:41. > :44:48.growing and the experienced in Stratford is that there is not much
:44:48. > :44:53.of a problem. If it has been a particularly successful example of
:44:53. > :44:57.what good urban regeneration can do in terms of retail. There were
:44:57. > :45:02.nearly 10,000 new jobs created as a result of that project and nearly
:45:02. > :45:06.3000 of those went to people who have effectively not had a job in
:45:06. > :45:15.their lives before. I read somewhere that the highest ft fall
:45:15. > :45:20.for a shopping mall, yours have the highest ever? Certainly in the UK.
:45:20. > :45:23.In the past year we have that nearly 48 million people through
:45:23. > :45:29.that shopping centre. It looks as if we will do a similar number this
:45:29. > :45:36.year. Some of that was down to the Olympics. We had probably another 9
:45:36. > :45:41.million customers. There are your credentials established so help on
:45:41. > :45:49.this one, this conflicting picture - in high-street stores closing,
:45:49. > :45:53.jobs going, quite clearly, although the latest data indicates that
:45:53. > :45:59.unemployment is coming down. Be in the retail sector we are seeing a
:45:59. > :46:05.slight growth in jobs so it is not all doom and gloom, particularly
:46:05. > :46:09.around London. The high street has some particular issues. It is going
:46:09. > :46:14.through an evolution now as it partly suffers from long-term
:46:14. > :46:19.under-investment. Those facilities are not attractive, but what we
:46:19. > :46:23.have shown in recent times, the last five years, it is that if you
:46:23. > :46:29.deliver the right sort of facilities, safe and secure, you
:46:29. > :46:37.can create jobs. We have created nearly 25,000 jobs. Do you believe
:46:37. > :46:41.these figures showing consistently coming down, given that we no job
:46:41. > :46:48.losses are around the corner? are seeing that most of the
:46:48. > :46:52.retailers we work with our increasing their workforce. So is
:46:52. > :47:01.the problem construction, manufacturing, other areas? You're
:47:01. > :47:05.saying there is demand, you are seeing signs of demand returning?
:47:05. > :47:11.certainly our retailers are seeing an increase in demand. We have had
:47:11. > :47:15.the confidence to say we will take on another project in Croydon,
:47:15. > :47:22.providing construction and retail jobs in the years ahead. The tour's
:47:22. > :47:27.first to acknowledge the impact of places like yours has a big impact
:47:27. > :47:33.on the diversity of smaller businesses and shops in the areas.
:47:33. > :47:39.High would have to challenge you on that. Maybe Steven can talk about
:47:39. > :47:43.Stratford and what has happened there, but the areas around us have
:47:43. > :47:48.actually grown. Shepherd's Bush, London, similarly the stories of
:47:48. > :47:54.doom and gloom as a result of investments like ours are patently
:47:54. > :47:58.wrong. A quick point on that, whether Stratford has had a
:47:58. > :48:04.beneficial experience. Quite a lot of my constituents have jobs now
:48:04. > :48:08.that they would not otherwise have. There are some very important
:48:08. > :48:14.lessons from John's success, particularly with the partnership
:48:14. > :48:17.with the local council. They have done a very good job of recruiting,
:48:17. > :48:23.carefully targeting, local unemployed people. We have seen
:48:23. > :48:27.from the latest figures it is going down across London. There has been
:48:27. > :48:33.a very welcome fall, but as you hinted there are some complex
:48:33. > :48:38.things going on in those figures. If you look nationally, there are
:48:38. > :48:44.more people working part-time but want to work full-time them there
:48:44. > :48:48.have ever been. Youth unemployment went up a bit in the figures this
:48:48. > :48:54.week, and the government is now projecting unemployment to rise
:48:54. > :49:00.next year. It is fragile picture, underlined by the reduction in GDP,
:49:00. > :49:07.this triple dip we have now entered into. Do you accept it is fragile,
:49:07. > :49:14.even if you welcome these figures? Take on that point there is a shift
:49:14. > :49:18.happening here. On the latter point, most people who have a part-time
:49:18. > :49:22.job want a part-time job. Labour's original predictions on
:49:22. > :49:25.unemployment have been shown not to be correct in the last few years so
:49:26. > :49:31.there is a tendency to focus on part-time. The biggest problem we
:49:31. > :49:35.have seen at the moment in the economy, and the latest GDP figures,
:49:35. > :49:39.his production is the section of the economy really suffering. There
:49:39. > :49:45.were some interesting statistics recently showing domestic demand,
:49:45. > :49:47.they are finding their members are reporting domestic demand are
:49:47. > :49:55.better levels than for a year-and- a-half, but the production part of
:49:55. > :50:01.the economy is dependent on export markets. The recession make that
:50:01. > :50:08.difficult. Her how can we restore confidence? Firstly having a plan
:50:08. > :50:13.to deal with debt, to help people out of unemployment. Talking about
:50:13. > :50:18.confidence. The mare was going to be talking about that today in
:50:18. > :50:28.Davos. It is important. There is a real danger sometimes of overdoing
:50:28. > :50:28.
:50:28. > :50:33.the talk of austerity and talking about people like John. A if you
:50:33. > :50:41.look at the growth of the British economy since the spending review
:50:41. > :50:46.in 2010, our economy has grown by 0.4%, the US economy and the German
:50:46. > :50:54.economy has grown. It is clear the policies in place, which we were
:50:54. > :51:03.told would lead to steady growth, are not working. The honest, with
:51:03. > :51:08.the austerity talk, does that worry you? No, we are satisfied with the
:51:08. > :51:18.long-term prospects for the UK. We would not continue to invest money,
:51:18. > :51:19.
:51:19. > :51:29.as we are about to, in Shepherd's Bush, the Northern billion-plus
:51:29. > :51:31.
:51:31. > :51:34.pounds in Croydon -- another billion-plus pounds. That will be
:51:34. > :51:38.music to the ears of the Prime Minister.
:51:38. > :51:43.In his weekly newspaper column this week, Boris Johnson said he had an
:51:43. > :51:48.open mind about whether climate change was the cause of carbon
:51:48. > :51:53.emissions and he was taken by the views have some who see solar
:51:53. > :52:03.influence as most important, or what is the sum that does it really.
:52:03. > :52:05.
:52:05. > :52:10.Could a change of emphasis be on the cards? -- the sun. Last week's
:52:10. > :52:14.weather got the mayor wondering. Surely there wasn't this much snow
:52:14. > :52:18.when he was a kid? He used his column in the Daily Telegraph to
:52:18. > :52:28.say he had an open mind as to whether common theories about
:52:28. > :52:33.
:52:33. > :52:37.climate change are right and that we might be to enter a mini Isa age.
:52:38. > :52:42.This man believes global warming is nonsense. There is no scientists in
:52:42. > :52:48.the world who can come forward and give evidence that changes in Co
:52:48. > :52:51.took our causing changes in the weather. All they have as a theory
:52:51. > :52:56.which doesn't work. The mayor wonders whether it might be time to
:52:56. > :53:01.take these beliefs seriously, which could have implications for any
:53:01. > :53:06.policy aimed at carbon reduction. If it is a waste of taxpayers'
:53:06. > :53:10.money. Carbon-dioxide is good for plants. This is an unnecessary
:53:10. > :53:14.burden imposed on people and should be stopped. City whole policy is
:53:14. > :53:20.very far away from that. Boris Johnson has promised to send
:53:20. > :53:25.millions of pounds to help deliver the promises in this climate change
:53:25. > :53:29.mitigation strategy. City Hall has a tougher targets for carbon
:53:29. > :53:38.reduction in London and the government has for the UK as a
:53:38. > :53:43.whole. London Assembly Greens say the mayor is not on track. It is a
:53:43. > :53:48.strategy that talks a lot about carbon reduction targets, but he is
:53:48. > :53:52.not delivering on it which means his heart is not in it. When he
:53:52. > :53:56.talks about solar flares, he is showing he is not planning for
:53:56. > :54:01.future generations, not taking this seriously and rejecting mainstream
:54:01. > :54:05.scientific advice. At the heart of the strategy is insulation for
:54:05. > :54:10.homes and offices. Buildings are becoming less wasteful across the
:54:11. > :54:18.capital. The installation work here it should save the resident about
:54:18. > :54:23.�300 a year of his bills. The mayor said this makes a lot of sense
:54:23. > :54:33.because it saves people money, but the programme is moving slower than
:54:33. > :54:36.
:54:36. > :54:43.originally hoped. By April, this amount of houses will have been
:54:43. > :54:53.insulated. The target was �200,000. City Hall insists cutting carbon
:54:53. > :54:54.
:54:54. > :55:00.remains a prior -- priority. With me now is the mayor's adviser on
:55:00. > :55:04.climate change. His climate change still regarded as the biggest
:55:04. > :55:09.threat to human civilisation? mayor is doing a great deal to
:55:09. > :55:15.reduce carbon dioxide emissions and the film alluded to some of those.
:55:15. > :55:24.Is it recognised as the greatest threat? If I would say it is a very
:55:24. > :55:31.serious threat and we really should do what we can. There is also
:55:31. > :55:36.economic value in this. Mr Corbett was saying it would cost taxpayers
:55:36. > :55:44.money, but this has shown that some of the project are saving money and
:55:44. > :55:53.some of the longer term projects will give cheaper energy to
:55:53. > :55:57.Londoners. But not meeting the target? In fact way over 200,000
:55:57. > :56:02.homes have been fitted with insulation by the end of last month.
:56:02. > :56:09.He you are right on target? A in a time of restricted budgets, it is
:56:09. > :56:14.interesting to say people want to measure the output. Power output is
:56:14. > :56:23.way over 200,000. Just because that is not public sector money, that is
:56:23. > :56:26.a good thing that should be celebrated. In the article he says
:56:26. > :56:33.his Ford doing this not least because it reduces people's energy
:56:33. > :56:36.bills, but not a mention that the key aim is to tackle the dangers of
:56:36. > :56:43.climate change. Sure Lee you should measure people on what they are
:56:43. > :56:47.achieving. Our carbon dioxide levels are now below those of 1990
:56:47. > :56:56.and on a downward trajectory which is astonishing when you look at the
:56:56. > :57:02.population. The figures went up between 2009 and 2010. The longer
:57:02. > :57:06.term rejection is rather it is going down. London's population is
:57:06. > :57:11.going up, we are talking about adding an extra London borough
:57:11. > :57:14.every two years. It appears the numbers are beginning to go up
:57:14. > :57:22.again but the key issue here would be many people will have seen the
:57:22. > :57:26.article - does this signal a shift in how we importantly City Hall
:57:27. > :57:34.regards the need to tackle carbon emissions? At saluting not because
:57:34. > :57:38.there is potential economically in this as well. But to tackle it
:57:38. > :57:43.because of the global issue and the dangers that will grow if it is not
:57:43. > :57:49.tackled - forget the economics. don't think we should forget the
:57:49. > :57:53.economics. The mare was elected on a jobs and growth platform. The
:57:53. > :58:00.retro fitting programmes have economic potential. This sector has
:58:00. > :58:04.grown by 4% and everything else has been stagnant. Is there the same
:58:04. > :58:10.commitment there was in 2008 to tackle the effect of climate
:58:10. > :58:14.change? Of course, yes. A book in addition you can see the economic
:58:14. > :58:19.benefits. Is it because there are economic benefits that it is worth
:58:19. > :58:24.pursuing this? In a time of restricted budgets and difficult
:58:24. > :58:28.times, it is fantastic that such an important issue as climate change
:58:28. > :58:33.can be addressed at the same time as creating economic growth. A what
:58:33. > :58:40.did you feel about his comments about snow, that we were possibly
:58:40. > :58:44.entering a mini ice age. It has been noticeable that there has been
:58:44. > :58:52.a series of winters that we are not used to since he has become mayor.
:58:52. > :58:56.The official figures show that 2007, 2008 were unusually low snowfall
:58:56. > :59:02.and he was talking about not remembering such snow since he was
:59:02. > :59:05.born in the 1960s. There have been a few snow events. People may
:59:05. > :59:09.remember the first one that caused transport paralysis across London.
:59:09. > :59:16.We seem to have gone back to the sort of winters we had generations
:59:16. > :59:26.ago. Would you indicate the mayor of London thinking these things out
:59:26. > :59:31.
:59:31. > :59:35.loud may mean that he will be $:/STARTFEED. He is bound to raise
:59:35. > :59:40.that question. This Government said it would be the greenest ever, but
:59:40. > :59:44.it has not worked out that way. Renewable energy is a sector
:59:44. > :59:49.weather is a lot of potential and we ought to be harnessing that
:59:49. > :59:55.investment, but we are going the other way. I think the endless
:59:55. > :59:59.debate about the science leaves a lot of voters cold. Most people are
:59:59. > :00:04.engaged by the practical measures. Particularly in difficult times
:00:04. > :00:10.talking about these issues through the prism of reducing your energy
:00:10. > :00:14.bills and doing goods makes obvious sense. Very few people write to me
:00:14. > :00:24.about the scientific debate, lots write about the practical things.
:00:24. > :00:29.
:00:29. > :00:32.What else has been happening in the City this week? Unions protested at
:00:32. > :00:38.a fire authority meeting where members have voted against proposed
:00:38. > :00:41.cuts, pouring cold water on the plans for the time being. But the
:00:41. > :00:46.Meyer may use his powers to push the proposals through.
:00:46. > :00:51.A High Court is to review Barnet council's plans to outsource some
:00:51. > :00:58.services. A contract was to be signed this month. A disabled
:00:58. > :01:02.resident launched a complaint. The birthrate has shot up by 53% in
:01:02. > :01:06.the last decade in Barking. Londoners saw an overall increase
:01:06. > :01:10.of 28%. Labour called on the Government to
:01:10. > :01:15.carry out a full inquiry that Labour workers have been
:01:15. > :01:19.blacklisted for major projects due to their union activity.
:01:19. > :01:24.material included personal information such as workers'
:01:24. > :01:33.private relationships, whether they had raised health and safety issues,
:01:33. > :01:39.their trade union activities and so on. Stephen Timms, does this
:01:39. > :01:43.blacklisting story raise issues for you? It certainly does. In the
:01:43. > :01:48.Olympic Park and in some other public sector projects as well, so
:01:48. > :01:51.public money is being used for accessing blacklists. I completely
:01:51. > :01:56.agree with the Prime Minister on this, it is completely unacceptable
:01:56. > :02:03.and I think the Government should investigate and look at possibly
:02:03. > :02:07.tightening the law further. Is it possible and understandable
:02:07. > :02:12.employers want staff who do not want to disrupt things -- for want
:02:12. > :02:15.to disrupt things? There was an outbreak of consensus this week and
:02:15. > :02:20.the Secretary of State accepted the opposition motion and committed the
:02:20. > :02:24.Government to further investigation. People should not be blacklisted
:02:24. > :02:28.for raising legitimate health and safety concerns or standing up for
:02:28. > :02:33.her fellow workers or anything. The Government accepted the
:02:33. > :02:43.opposition's motion and there will be an investigation. With that,
:02:43. > :02:48.
:02:48. > :02:56.In a moment we will look ahead to the big stories that will dominate
:02:56. > :03:01.politics next week, but first the news. Good afternoon. A fire at a
:03:01. > :03:06.nightclub in Brazil has claimed at least 245 lives. It is thought the
:03:06. > :03:13.blaze broke out in the early hours of the morning in the packed club
:03:14. > :03:19.in Santa Maria. It was a desperate search for
:03:19. > :03:25.survivors. Emergency workers and club-goers worked side by side. The
:03:25. > :03:29.fire, set officials, had spread in seconds, the result of a stage show
:03:29. > :03:36.gone wrong. In the smoke and dark hundreds of youngsters have rushed
:03:36. > :03:40.to escape, but only one exit was open. The fire started as far as we
:03:40. > :03:46.know from some sort of firework display even before the fire
:03:46. > :03:51.fighters were there. People were trying to make holes in the wall to
:03:51. > :03:55.help people get out. Santa Maria has a large student population and
:03:55. > :04:01.it is thought a party with 500 people was being held at the club
:04:01. > :04:05.last night. The scale of the disaster has left Brazil stunned.
:04:05. > :04:10.Investigations are now under way to discover the exact cause of the
:04:10. > :04:13.fire and how many came to dive. The Deputy Prime Minister Nick
:04:13. > :04:17.Clegg says a referendum on membership of the EU is not in the
:04:17. > :04:24.national interest. He says David Cameron is risking growth and jobs
:04:24. > :04:28.by tying the country in knots in what he calls an arcane debate.
:04:28. > :04:33.priority will always remain at the simple objective of building a
:04:33. > :04:39.stronger economy in a fairer society and that makes it more
:04:39. > :04:47.difficult if you have years of tying yourself up in knots. Tying
:04:47. > :04:51.yourself in knots about the precise terms. Tens of thousands of people
:04:51. > :04:56.are attending the funerals of 29 people killed in violence in Egypt
:04:56. > :05:01.yesterday following the verdict at a football right case. Clashes have
:05:01. > :05:05.broken out between some mourners and the security forces.
:05:05. > :05:11.Yesterday's violence started after 21 people were sentenced to death
:05:11. > :05:18.for their part in a riot last year when 74 people died.
:05:18. > :05:22.French forces in Mali are closing in on the City of Timbuktu. Bases
:05:22. > :05:26.at Gao yesterday in the north of the country. African Union leaders
:05:26. > :05:32.are meeting to discuss sending more troops to the country.
:05:32. > :05:36.Andy Murray has failed to win his second Grand Slam title in a row,
:05:36. > :05:43.losing to Novak Djokovic. He took the first set in a tie-break, but
:05:43. > :05:51.Novak Djokovic took the next three sets. Andy Murray struggled with a
:05:51. > :05:55.hamstring injury and blistered feet. There will be more news at 6
:05:56. > :06:01.o'clock. After another lousy set of economic
:06:01. > :06:05.figures, how will the Government get some growth into the economy?
:06:05. > :06:15.Pushing bulldozers through Tory marginals or offering cheap
:06:15. > :06:17.
:06:17. > :06:22.childcare for families? The questions for The Week Ahead. Apart
:06:22. > :06:26.from the jobs front where the news is better, almost every other
:06:26. > :06:31.metric of the Government's economic strategy is in ruins. Does the
:06:31. > :06:35.Government had a strategy any more? It looks challenging. They have a
:06:35. > :06:40.strategy which is the one that George Osborne set out in the
:06:40. > :06:46.emergency budget. Do you remember those adverts in the 1970s for
:06:46. > :06:50.Access card, you ever flexible friend? There are two parts to that
:06:50. > :06:55.is a mandate, eliminating the budget deficit and then seeing debt
:06:55. > :06:59.falling as a proportion of GDP by the end of the parliament. 1
:06:59. > :07:04.deficit that is assessed on a rolling, five-year basis, so you
:07:04. > :07:09.can fudge around with that. On the debt target that was definitive,
:07:09. > :07:13.but George Osborne said he was not going to meet it. If he had stuck
:07:13. > :07:18.to the rule of the law, taxes would be going through the roof and
:07:18. > :07:23.spending would be cut more dramatically. He is using his
:07:23. > :07:28.flexible friend and he is not being lashed to the mast. When things go
:07:28. > :07:32.wrong, politicians start obfuscating. Let's listen to what
:07:32. > :07:36.the Prime Minister said in a party political broadcast. What's the
:07:36. > :07:41.difference between debt and deficit. Although this Government has had to
:07:41. > :07:48.make difficult decisions, we are making progress. We are paying them
:07:48. > :07:52.Britain's the debts. So spot the deliberate mistake. This is not a
:07:52. > :07:58.party political point, it is a fact, we are not paying down our debts,
:07:58. > :08:02.debt is rising in this Government. By the end of this Parliament it
:08:02. > :08:08.will reach 1.5 trillion. When he says that, is he deliberately
:08:08. > :08:14.telling us a porky? It is fair to accuse him of being economic a with
:08:14. > :08:20.the truth. His get-out clause is if you focus on his enunciation, he
:08:20. > :08:26.says the debts, which could allude to the economy's aggregated debts.
:08:26. > :08:31.Had he said, we are paying down our debts, it would have been an
:08:31. > :08:35.ambiguous. It is half of a get-out clause. The private sector is
:08:35. > :08:41.paying down its debts, we as individuals are paying out our
:08:41. > :08:45.debts, the one that is not paying down their debts is the Government.
:08:45. > :08:49.Or ordinary people feel things are not getting any better yet and
:08:49. > :08:56.things are permanently bleak. The polling shows people feel things it
:08:56. > :08:59.should be getting better by now and they are not. It is the most
:08:59. > :09:06.politically potent GDP figure of the year because it is the last one
:09:06. > :09:10.before the Budget. This time last year, we had a contraction of 0.6
:09:10. > :09:15.that amplified pressure on George Osborne to produce a spectacular
:09:15. > :09:21.growth measure and he went for 50 pence. Is it going to be more of
:09:21. > :09:26.the same, or it will be seen some kind of change in economic strategy
:09:26. > :09:31.come March? I think we will feel there will be some sort of movement,
:09:31. > :09:36.but I think there is enough flexibility in the original fiscal
:09:36. > :09:41.mandate for him to say he is not changing a Plan A. George Osborne
:09:41. > :09:47.is terrified of the credit rating agencies and of the UK using its
:09:47. > :09:51.AAA status, which it may do. One thing you can be sure of in George
:09:51. > :09:56.Osborne's mindset that if you muck around with the legality of the
:09:56. > :10:01.plan, the credit-rating agencies might well take fright. I think
:10:01. > :10:06.they have taken fright already. The problem with the media is we know
:10:06. > :10:10.how to cover tax and spending, but what is really important is what is
:10:10. > :10:15.happening in the bond markets and it is very difficult for the mass
:10:15. > :10:20.media to cover that. Tomorrow the next phase of the HS2 rail link is
:10:20. > :10:27.going to be unveiled. The preferred route will see the line split north
:10:27. > :10:32.of Birmingham, one side to Leeds and the other to Manchester. It
:10:32. > :10:36.will pass very close to George Osborne's Tatton constituency. What
:10:36. > :10:40.they are going to do is they are going to say, we are into
:10:40. > :10:44.infrastructure spending and this is the biggest capital spending in the
:10:44. > :10:50.history of the universe, except none of it will happen for the
:10:50. > :10:54.foreseeable future. It sounds quite exciting, the idea of having a kind
:10:54. > :10:59.of French style train, or perhaps double-decker, whizzing up and down
:10:59. > :11:06.the country, but we are not going to see this project for about two
:11:06. > :11:10.decades. It will not provide a quick fix. The idea dates to 2006
:11:10. > :11:15.when George Osborne visited Japan and got a trip on a bullet train
:11:15. > :11:22.and concluded Britain needed that kind of infrastructure and that
:11:22. > :11:27.made sense before the crash. Labour was all for it as well. There is
:11:27. > :11:31.going to be a third and for a runway at Heathrow Airport, and the
:11:31. > :11:35.Howard Davies review will give George Osborne the cupboard to do
:11:35. > :11:42.that. Then, guess what, the Government does not need to spend
:11:42. > :11:46.any money. You've had the story about the Conservative MP, Adam
:11:46. > :11:53.Afriyie, that he is going to challenge the leader and there will
:11:53. > :11:59.be a leadership bid this week. this week, not even next year.
:11:59. > :12:04.why did you put it on the front page. This is preparation for post
:12:04. > :12:08.2015. It shows the breakdown of party discipline on Cameron's
:12:08. > :12:13.backbenchers. People are actively looking to life beyond David
:12:13. > :12:19.Cameron. Secondly, what does that mean for difficult legislation that
:12:19. > :12:22.comes up in the next few months and years? Why would you run the story
:12:22. > :12:27.this weekend? He has never been more popular among his
:12:27. > :12:32.backbenchers? The Tories cheered a concession for about five minutes
:12:32. > :12:37.and then went back to their original position, which is
:12:37. > :12:41.relentless criticism. The only Tory leader to have won his leadership
:12:41. > :12:49.comfortably was David Cameron and the only when he faces an imminent
:12:49. > :12:53.leadership threat is David Cameron. Sorry, not imminent. This Tory
:12:53. > :12:58.press, how and rectal could they people stop the Mail on Sunday
:12:58. > :13:01.story runs the Adam Afriyie story. The Telegraph and the male are also
:13:01. > :13:07.running the story because the Chancellor and the Prime Minister
:13:07. > :13:12.go and have a pizza in Davos. It is an expensive pizza. There is no
:13:12. > :13:17.such thing as a cheap pizza in Davos. How ungrateful can they be?
:13:17. > :13:21.They have had their fantasy murmured. But Isabel is clever
:13:21. > :13:29.because there are mutterings going on and Isabel has got the names
:13:29. > :13:32.into the open. The name is Adam Afriyie. The brains behind it is a
:13:32. > :13:37.frank Field. They are former members of the front bench, they
:13:37. > :13:42.are embittered, they are immensely talented. Perhaps they should be
:13:42. > :13:48.ministers, but they are not. If the Conservative Party thinks replacing
:13:48. > :13:55.David Cameron is a good idea, they are stark, raving mad. He is their
:13:55. > :13:59.best chance. This is what Adam Afriyie says in the Mail on Sunday.
:13:59. > :14:04.They had it along with the sun on Sundays. This is a very naughty
:14:04. > :14:09.conversation. He has been watching the Life of Brian. You are being
:14:09. > :14:14.very mischievous, I supported David Cameron to become leader, I love
:14:14. > :14:19.him and want him to be leader for the next 20 years. I am going to
:14:19. > :14:24.end this conversation and he then hung up. That is what we know as a
:14:24. > :14:28.non denial of denial. There is no plan to replace Cameron and less he
:14:28. > :14:31.loses the next election. The fact they are talking about this and
:14:31. > :14:36.look at what these people have in common, they are the dispossessed,
:14:36. > :14:40.the embittered and they should be ministers, but they are not. I come
:14:40. > :14:45.to you for some sense in this. Are we agreed there is no chance of a
:14:45. > :14:51.leadership challenge this side of the election? Any serving Prime
:14:51. > :14:54.Minister always faces a abruptly 10% chance of being deposed. I
:14:54. > :15:04.agree, I do not think David Cameron's chances of being deposed
:15:04. > :15:15.
:15:15. > :15:21.He would be on a farm in the middle of Oxfordshire. Now, in the process,
:15:21. > :15:26.you have destroyed Adam Afriyie's career, haven't you? He should keep
:15:26. > :15:30.his head down. The government is planning changes to child care, and
:15:30. > :15:36.you have just had a baby, you will be keeping a close eye on this.
:15:36. > :15:42.What do you make of it? The idea is to allow nursery workers to look
:15:42. > :15:47.after more children per head. I can't imagine looking after six
:15:47. > :15:53.toddlers. As a mother of three aged five and under, that is quite
:15:53. > :15:57.enough for anybody. What are they going to do about tax breaks for
:15:57. > :16:01.child care? There has been a big argument behind the scenes about
:16:01. > :16:10.what they will do well on our. They don't want to be seen giving tax
:16:10. > :16:14.breaks to people, well certainly the Lib Dems are not keen on that.
:16:14. > :16:20.They were only going to be giving tax breaks to have the better off,
:16:20. > :16:24.isn't that how we would work? said do we really want to be seen
:16:24. > :16:28.to be subsidising nannies. They are sometimes the cheapest way to do it
:16:28. > :16:32.if you have multiple children. believe you are about to get
:16:32. > :16:39.married so this will be an important issue for you. He indeed,
:16:39. > :16:49.maybe. Paul what do you make of the policy? Of it is lose trust's idea
:16:49. > :16:55.and she was coming up with these ideas before she was a minister. --
:16:55. > :17:01.Liz Truss. In the newspaper today there is a table showing how low
:17:01. > :17:07.the ratio is not grow for how many children nannies can look after,
:17:07. > :17:11.and the question is can we allow more flexibility into these rules,
:17:11. > :17:16.and interestingly talking about simplifying and elevating the
:17:16. > :17:21.qualifications you need to mind a child, which is interesting stuff.
:17:21. > :17:24.Childcare is one of those issues that doesn't get covered a lot in
:17:24. > :17:29.Westminster, but it resonates with families and parents up and down
:17:29. > :17:34.the land. Behind the scenes in Number 10, they are working on it
:17:34. > :17:38.for the next manifesto because they know there was not a two-year offer
:17:39. > :17:45.in the way the Labour produced in 2001 with the Sure Start centres
:17:45. > :17:51.and so on. As a parent of zero children, I can't imagine looking
:17:51. > :17:56.after six are either! Briefly, have we seen start in the trend of
:17:56. > :18:00.narrowing the Labour Tory gap with this Europe speech? Because the
:18:00. > :18:08.economy comes back centre stage and so on, is it just a short-term
:18:08. > :18:16.blip? It is short term. I think the Labour bounce will soon slip back
:18:16. > :18:21.to where it was. Short-term, but I think it will narrow in and -- the
:18:21. > :18:27.last nine months of this Parliament. Ed Miliband's leadership under