:00:42. > :00:46.Sunday Politics. Timewarp edition! It's back to the '70s, as Britain
:00:46. > :00:50.faces the threat of power blackouts. We'll ask the Energy Minister how
:00:51. > :00:54.he'll keep the lights on. And it's back to the '80s with Labour as
:00:54. > :00:57.right clash with left amid claims that comrades at Unite are trying to
:00:58. > :01:02.take the party over from the inside. We go to Falkirk where it's all been
:01:02. > :01:06.kicking off. And if you got a P45 tomorrow, could you wait a week for
:01:06. > :01:15.welfare? That's the government's plan, but is it fair? The two sides
:01:15. > :01:19.go head to head. In London there have been closures on the M25 every
:01:20. > :01:29.day since the Coalition came to power. Will the announcement of
:01:30. > :01:31.
:01:31. > :01:35.investment make a difference? All of that and our political
:01:35. > :01:45.panel. They look a little bleary eyed after rocking out at the
:01:45. > :01:50.
:01:50. > :01:53.festival with Mick and Keith. We have Janan Ganesh, Helen Lewis and
:01:53. > :01:59.Iain Martin who'll be tweeting throughout the programme. Trouble
:01:59. > :02:01.brewing through the Labour Party this morning, as party members and
:02:02. > :02:04.union activists digest the news from Falkirk, where the constituency
:02:04. > :02:07.party has been placed in "special measures" after allegations that one
:02:07. > :02:10.of the party's biggest backers, the Unite trade union, tired to rig
:02:10. > :02:12.candidate selection for the seat. The party says there is "sufficient
:02:13. > :02:21.evidence to raise concern". The union denies any wrongdoing. So
:02:21. > :02:26.what's been going on? Giles Dilnot went to Falkirk to find out. A
:02:26. > :02:30.beautiful view of Falkirk, which ironically is the focus of an ugly
:02:30. > :02:34.battle between the Labour Party and one of its biggest backers, the
:02:34. > :02:38.union Unite over the choosing of party candidates, which has
:02:38. > :02:44.fermented accusations that Unite is stitching on selections and Labour
:02:44. > :02:49.is smearing the union. The Unite General Secretary has been open that
:02:50. > :02:55.his strategy is to recruit trade unionists to the Labour Party in the
:02:55. > :03:00.interests of Unite so they can influence selection and policy and
:03:00. > :03:09.campaigning. What happened in Falkirk? It started when sitting MP
:03:09. > :03:14.Eric Joyce stand in 2015 after he was arrested for a fight in the bar
:03:14. > :03:18.of the House of Commons. The chair of Falkirk Labour Party is also the
:03:18. > :03:23.chair of Unite Scotland. After three people expressed an interest to sit,
:03:23. > :03:28.Unite sent out a survey to a number of Labour Party members asking if
:03:28. > :03:33.they thought Falkirk should be an all woman shortlist which would have
:03:33. > :03:39.benefited their favoured candidate, a woman. Then there were questions
:03:39. > :03:44.about an influx of new party members that has led to Labour nationally
:03:44. > :03:54.stepping in after it ruled there was sufficient evidence for concern. One
:03:54. > :03:57.
:03:57. > :04:01.of the allegations put two oils is that -- to us... It is significant
:04:01. > :04:08.that the Labour Party central aid has since barred anyone who joined
:04:08. > :04:13.after March 2012 from voting in this selection process. It seems that the
:04:13. > :04:21.Labour Party now has a concern about these people recruited recently en
:04:21. > :04:27.masse. If they are legitimately recruited, there is no problem.
:04:27. > :04:33.do you think this damage is most? The Labour Party but equally Unite.
:04:33. > :04:37.The last months inside the Labour Party have shocked this member of 40
:04:37. > :04:41.years. The mood of the party changed. It is not the way the
:04:41. > :04:45.Labour Party should operate and not the way the trade union should
:04:45. > :04:51.operate. We need to be transparent but if the situation elsewhere is
:04:51. > :04:56.the same suit is here, that would raise concerns for me as a Labour
:04:56. > :05:04.Party member and a Unite member. Concerns were raised in London and
:05:04. > :05:09.the Midlands after party selections for next year's European elections.
:05:09. > :05:13.Carole tongue was a high-profile MEP until she left in 1999 to care for
:05:13. > :05:20.her child. Last year she decided to put herself forward to a regional
:05:20. > :05:25.selection board of six people containing one Unite and one GMB
:05:25. > :05:29.official. Despite being experienced and well known, she was not
:05:29. > :05:36.shortlisted or even interviewed. Perhaps she wasn't the best person?
:05:36. > :05:41.I think what really happened was this was a way of trying to make
:05:41. > :05:46.sure of the clearest run for the union by knocking out the people who
:05:46. > :05:56.would get most votes against those candidates. What bothers people like
:05:56. > :05:57.
:05:57. > :06:07.Michael is despite asking, he has yet to receive a reply to that
:06:07. > :06:07.
:06:07. > :06:55.Apology for the loss of subtitles for 47 seconds
:06:55. > :06:57.smear, but no rules have been broken anywhere. They will challenge Labour
:06:57. > :07:01.'s decision over Falkirk and have not been shown the allegations
:07:01. > :07:07.against them. Critics suggest even their openings threaten Labour
:07:07. > :07:13.electoral leave. We are hearing talk of direct
:07:13. > :07:16.action. This is, if you like, a campaigning strategy we haven't seen
:07:16. > :07:24.in the Labour movement since the 1980s. That is what is presenting
:07:24. > :07:29.the serious political problem for Ed Miliband.
:07:29. > :07:34.If the wheels are not to come off the tracks, both seed -- side need
:07:34. > :07:37.to decide who decides the direction of travel.
:07:37. > :07:47.What is happening in the Labour Party? Is there an attempt by the
:07:47. > :07:49.
:07:49. > :07:56.unions and ( -- left-wing allies... This exposes a deep division. Unite
:07:56. > :07:59.says they want people from different areas. The other big problem is that
:07:59. > :08:05.Len McCluskey gave an interview in which he called for Shadow Cabinet
:08:06. > :08:09.members to be sacked by name. There is a huge divide between what he
:08:10. > :08:19.would call austerity light and what he wants and what his members say he
:08:20. > :08:25.
:08:25. > :08:30.is there to say. Is this reminiscent of the 1980s? I cut my teeth as a
:08:30. > :08:34.reporter in Scotland 20 years ago covering a scandal and the selection
:08:34. > :08:40.battles in the early 1990s. For Peter Mandelson to complain about
:08:40. > :08:46.elections being stitched up is a little rich. Does anybody listen to
:08:46. > :08:53.Peter Mandelson in the Labour Party today? I think there is an argument
:08:53. > :08:58.that they should. Parties that tend to win tend to have to be broad
:08:58. > :09:08.churches and if the Labour Party is going to be dominated by Unite I
:09:08. > :09:11.
:09:11. > :09:16.don't think there will be a future for the party in that sense. What
:09:17. > :09:24.would concern me if I were in his position is that if the unions try
:09:24. > :09:27.this thing ten years ago, you would have John Reid, Stephen Byers, Alan
:09:27. > :09:32.Milburn and Tony Blair himself all constituting the very formidable
:09:32. > :09:38.resistance to the right of the party. Who constitutes the right of
:09:38. > :09:45.the party now? It seems to have at provide as a movement. I can think
:09:45. > :09:52.of Jim Murphy but beyond that you are struggling. There is a clash in
:09:52. > :09:56.the Labour Party, and the left wins through the sheer absence of the
:09:56. > :10:01.right. They don't think they have done anything wrong, they think it
:10:01. > :10:06.is their job to put like-minded people in as candidates. It is a
:10:06. > :10:16.tricky one for them. I think whoever was Labour leader, they are all
:10:16. > :10:26.going to have to take the same approach to it. I agree, Ed Miliband
:10:26. > :10:26.
:10:26. > :10:29.knows it is good to be still in with the unions and he has stepped in.
:10:29. > :10:32.Now, it's not just Labour who've been going back in time this week.
:10:32. > :10:36.One Tory minister found himself on TV having to reassure the nation
:10:36. > :10:44.that the lights aren't about to go out on Britain. Sound familiar?
:10:44. > :10:48.want to speak to you about the grave emergency facing our country.
:10:49. > :10:52.Blackouts are one feature of this decade nobody wants to revive. This
:10:52. > :10:58.week the possibility the lights might go out again raised its ugly
:10:58. > :11:04.head, for very different reasons. An energy assessment released by often
:11:04. > :11:07.suggested spare capacity in the system would drop, comfortable 14%
:11:07. > :11:14.to a terrifying 2%. Newspaper headlines followed warning of dark
:11:14. > :11:21.days. The Government is acting, it confirmed �10 billion worth of
:11:21. > :11:25.guarantees for energy company EDF to build a new nuclear power station
:11:25. > :11:29.and it was confirmed the north-west of England potentially has enough
:11:29. > :11:33.shale gas to keep Britain powered for 43 years, but that won't address
:11:33. > :11:43.the threat of the lights going out in the next few years. It might even
:11:43. > :11:44.
:11:44. > :11:54.be time to check under the stairs for those candidates. And Energy
:11:54. > :11:54.
:11:54. > :11:57.Minister Michael Fallon joins me now for the Sunday Interview. Why has
:11:57. > :12:02.the Coalition so mismanaged energy policy that there is talk of the
:12:02. > :12:08.lights going out at times of high demand for electricity? For years
:12:08. > :12:13.Labour had not done anything, not build any new nuclear stations and
:12:13. > :12:21.simply not enough investment was going into energy. We saw a series
:12:21. > :12:25.of announcement on Wednesday are accelerating shale gas, and people
:12:25. > :12:32.can invest in renewables and we are now organising new reserve capacity
:12:32. > :12:39.to come on stream in a few years. How many new power plants have
:12:39. > :12:46.opened under this Government? Six power plants, two big offshore wind
:12:46. > :12:54.farms, biomass conversion. Not all these are up and running? Yes, they
:12:54. > :13:02.are. And more coming. How many more will open between now and 2015?
:13:02. > :13:05.least another four or five. There are 11 others with planning
:13:05. > :13:14.permission, we are catching up but nothing was done under Labour and we
:13:14. > :13:19.have a long way to go to catch up. According to a report from off gem,
:13:19. > :13:23.spare electricity generating capacity is likely to fall from 14%
:13:23. > :13:29.to 2%, it doesn't leave much slack. Know, and I think everybody
:13:29. > :13:35.underestimated that some of the coal-fired stations are coming off
:13:35. > :13:38.the system earlier than originally anticipated because of our
:13:39. > :13:43.commitments under international law. That was underestimated and we have
:13:43. > :13:48.got to make sure there is enough energy and I want to reassure you we
:13:49. > :13:54.are doing that. What is your estimate of the chance of blackouts?
:13:54. > :13:58.We want to make sure they don't happen. We are not going to have
:13:58. > :14:04.industrial blackouts, factories shot at lunchtime or anything like that.
:14:04. > :14:07.We have off gem, the regulator, and the National Grid charged with
:14:07. > :14:17.making sure that doesn't happen and they have plenty of tools at their
:14:17. > :14:30.
:14:30. > :14:34.disposal. Let's look at what the There is a risk of course. There
:14:34. > :14:40.will be less reserve capacity in three years but we have time to deal
:14:40. > :14:49.with that. The situation is so serious that the National Grid are
:14:49. > :14:52.looking at paying users to close down when demand is high. This is
:14:52. > :14:57.how you responded. The story is running about how factories and
:14:57. > :15:05.businesses will be asked to switch off in order that power isn't cut to
:15:05. > :15:15.people's homes in 2015, are they true? No. That wasn't accurate, was
:15:15. > :15:21.Let's speak clear what tools they have at their disposal. They have
:15:21. > :15:25.always had an operating reserve. They have always had their own
:15:25. > :15:32.generators who can contract to Ofgem, to turn down their power for
:15:32. > :15:38.a certain period. There is nothing new about that. That has existed for
:15:38. > :15:41.20 years. Secondly, they are looking at some recently mothballed plant to
:15:41. > :15:48.make sure the operators of it are ready if the plant is needed, to
:15:49. > :15:55.bring it to the system. That can be done relatively quickly. I have been
:15:55. > :15:59.told it takes more than a year. are talking about a potential
:15:59. > :16:08.tightness in the capacity in 2.5 years. One year is plenty of time.
:16:08. > :16:11.National Grid is talking about a tariff, paying industrial users not
:16:11. > :16:18.for using energy between four p.m. And eight p.m. If there's danger of
:16:18. > :16:22.blackouts. They have plenty of time to get a mothballed plant onto the
:16:22. > :16:26.system. They have plenty of time to better balance the system. I assure
:16:26. > :16:31.you, we are not going to have people sent home at lunchtime. We are going
:16:31. > :16:38.to have a to system. They are not going to use any techniques they are
:16:38. > :16:41.not already using. There should be an operating reserve. When did the
:16:41. > :16:51.National Grid or Ofgem paying industrial users not to use a
:16:51. > :16:53.
:16:53. > :17:01.literacy? When did they last use it? They haven't.Exactly. They are
:17:01. > :17:05.planning ahead, in case there is a shortage. If there is, they will be
:17:05. > :17:10.ready with some mothballed plant that was off the system, to bring it
:17:10. > :17:15.back on. There's plenty of time to do that. If it takes a year, why is
:17:15. > :17:21.there plenty of time? You won't know until there's a winter snap and we
:17:21. > :17:26.passed the limit. You don't know, a year before, if that happens.
:17:26. > :17:30.would be the first to criticise me if we put in lots of capacity and
:17:30. > :17:35.added two bills unnecessarily. What I want to assure you about is that
:17:35. > :17:39.we are not going back to any kind of industrial blackouts. The reason
:17:39. > :17:45.people are now talking about a blackout, and it's not just the
:17:45. > :17:48.media, it's Ofgem, the National Grid, who run utilities, is because
:17:48. > :17:55.the previous Labour government and this Coalition agreed to phasing out
:17:55. > :18:03.of our existing nuclear stations without putting a replacement in
:18:03. > :18:06.place. Labour accepted all of these obligations. They signed up to all
:18:06. > :18:11.of these European treaties but they didn't do the other thing, which was
:18:11. > :18:15.to invest in new stations to replace the coal fire stations and the oil
:18:15. > :18:19.fire stations that were being taken of the system. That was the
:18:19. > :18:22.appalling failure of underinvestment. Why don't you delay
:18:22. > :18:27.the close of the cold fire stations until you have done something about
:18:27. > :18:32.new capacity? The operators of these new stations are able to do that.
:18:32. > :18:37.But there are legal limits about the amount of dirty power they can
:18:37. > :18:41.generate. They have to respect European Union law. You say that,
:18:41. > :18:47.but why are we doing what the EU tells us? We are closing our
:18:47. > :18:51.stations when Germany is building 12 new cold fire stations using the
:18:51. > :18:57.dirtiest coal available. Germany and some of these countries were ahead
:18:57. > :19:04.on renewable energy. They had more renewable electricity, and we don't.
:19:04. > :19:07.We accepted and sign up to these obligations. When you sign up to
:19:07. > :19:13.obligations to have fewer cold fire stations, then you've got to
:19:13. > :19:20.undertake to have the new investment to go alongside it. What is more
:19:20. > :19:25.important, buy in Brussels or keeping the lights on? -- obeying.
:19:25. > :19:29.Keeping the lights on. Keeping the lights on is the first priority.
:19:29. > :19:34.We're not planning to break any particular law. We have got time to
:19:34. > :19:44.deal with this situation. Are dealing with it. -- we are dealing
:19:44. > :20:00.
:20:00. > :20:04.with it. This was in the Telegraph will pick up the tab in their bills
:20:04. > :20:08.for this astonishingly expensive hand-out. First you say we are going
:20:08. > :20:13.to be short of energy, and when there's investment, you criticise
:20:13. > :20:20.that. You can't have it both ways. We have cut the cost of onshore
:20:20. > :20:25.wind. We cut the subsidy this year. We reduced it in April. We reviewed
:20:25. > :20:29.the cost each year in conjunction with the industry to make sure that
:20:29. > :20:33.it's more cost effective, and we are doing the same with offshore wind.
:20:33. > :20:39.The wind industry gets three times the market rate, and we pay for that
:20:39. > :20:43.in our bills. Correct? You won't get people to build a wind farm or even
:20:43. > :20:48.a gas plant unless they can be sure they can get their electricity
:20:48. > :20:53.generated onto the system. If you want new investment, it has to be
:20:53. > :20:58.paid for. It's interesting that you think wind is a way to avoid the
:20:58. > :21:08.blackouts. This is a snapshot of what was generating our elegant city
:21:08. > :21:18.
:21:18. > :21:24.of wind capacity, when the wind doesn't blow, you don't get power.
:21:24. > :21:32.You don't in June, no. You do at other months. Sorry to interrupt
:21:32. > :21:38.you, I can show you a figure from February when it was 0.2%. Sometimes
:21:38. > :21:41.it is over ten. Last time I saw, it was 6.3. Wind is important, but the
:21:41. > :21:46.lesson is you need more of all of these sources of energy if we are to
:21:46. > :21:51.avoid the reserve getting tighter. We need people to invest in a mix of
:21:51. > :21:53.energy so we are more secure. Households and business will have to
:21:53. > :22:03.stump up for the new nuclear capacity that you are trying to
:22:03. > :22:04.
:22:04. > :22:10.build but haven't yet. EDF like the wind suppliers, once a guarantee.
:22:10. > :22:16.That is before they go ahead with Hinkley Point. We are still
:22:16. > :22:22.negotiating with EDF. We can't tell you what the price is going to be.
:22:22. > :22:27.This is a huge investment. It is a 40 year investment into nuclear
:22:27. > :22:32.power. It doesn't come for free. they have you over a barrel because
:22:32. > :22:36.nobody else can build these stations quickly. Either you agree to their
:22:36. > :22:41.price, or it doesn't happen in the immediate future. If that was true,
:22:41. > :22:50.we would have agreed back at Christmas. We have our -- other
:22:50. > :22:54.operators coming in. That's a long way away. They are organising supply
:22:54. > :22:58.chain conferences at the moment. We have other investment coming into
:22:58. > :23:04.potential site at Sellafield and Sizewell and elsewhere. The nuclear
:23:04. > :23:08.industry is picking up now, after years of neglect under Labour.
:23:08. > :23:13.other thing we've known for years is that Britain is sitting on a sea of
:23:13. > :23:16.natural gas, called shale gas. A survey has confirmed we have 43
:23:16. > :23:22.years of his staff to keep the lights on. The Coalition has
:23:22. > :23:30.dithered on this as well. There has been no delay. We are not on
:23:30. > :23:39.Thursday that we are getting serious about shale gas. -- we announced. We
:23:39. > :23:45.are ensuring that communities will benefit from drilling. You had a
:23:45. > :23:48.two-year moratorium. That's because there was some seismic activity and
:23:48. > :23:53.we needed to be sure that this stuff could be drilled safely and
:23:53. > :24:03.protecting the environment. Let me show you what happened with the
:24:03. > :24:13.
:24:13. > :24:19.so-called earthquakes. These are the It's important to reassure people.
:24:19. > :24:24.Hydraulic fracking for gas is a new thing in this country. The
:24:24. > :24:30.moratorium has finished now. We have finished -- fired the starting gun.
:24:30. > :24:35.We have companies searching for shale gas. As a result of the
:24:35. > :24:40.moratorium, the shale gas will not be on stream in any significant
:24:40. > :24:46.quantities, if at all, in time to cope with any of the 2015-2016
:24:46. > :24:53.blackouts. Correct? Not necessarily. They are drilling for shale gas at
:24:53. > :24:57.the moment. Soon they will start hydraulic drilling. It is only
:24:57. > :25:03.explorer tree at the moment. They are not drilling for shale gas. --
:25:03. > :25:08.is only exploratory. They have to have various permissions. They have
:25:08. > :25:10.to get those lined up. They have to reassure us they can do it safely,
:25:11. > :25:16.without damaging the environment. Shale gas could make an important
:25:17. > :25:23.contribution to the chart that you showed. So, a danger of blackouts in
:25:23. > :25:30.2016, you will have no shale gas and no new gasp capacity by then. It's a
:25:30. > :25:33.mess of a policy. I reject that. We have Ofgem taking prudent measures
:25:33. > :25:36.now to make sure there's a mothballed plant ready to come back
:25:36. > :25:41.on the system, to make sure companies manage their demand where
:25:41. > :25:45.they are able to use private generators if necessary, and this
:25:45. > :25:49.week we announced a series of measures to make sure there's a new
:25:49. > :25:54.plant coming onto the system and that the search for shale gas is
:25:54. > :25:58.being accelerated, not slowed down. The Chancellor 's Spending Review
:25:58. > :26:06.has come and gone but there's also a row over the benefits system. If you
:26:06. > :26:10.lose a job, you have to wait a week before you can claim welfare.
:26:10. > :26:13.Half of all job seekers need more help looking for work. So we will
:26:13. > :26:22.require them to come to the Job centre every week rather than once a
:26:22. > :26:27.fortnight. We're going to give people more time with the job centre
:26:27. > :26:32.and visors and proper progress reviews every three months. -- with
:26:32. > :26:36.job centre and visors. We're going to introduce a new seven-day wait
:26:36. > :26:40.before people can claim benefits. Those few days should be spent
:26:40. > :26:44.looking for work, not looking to sign on.
:26:44. > :26:50.We have it at three days at the moment. Seven days, is it going to
:26:50. > :26:58.be a blank check for loan companies? If it works, fine.
:26:58. > :27:07.Looks like a consensus. But is it fair? Nadhim Zahawi and Laurie Penny
:27:07. > :27:13.go head-to-head. Nadhim Zahawi, why is it fair to
:27:13. > :27:18.tell a low paid worker, laid off as short notice, that he or she will
:27:18. > :27:23.have to wait a whole week before she gets help to feed her family?
:27:23. > :27:30.Firstly, it is right that you spend the first week repairing to go back
:27:30. > :27:38.to week -- work. Secondly, if you have no savings and no redundancy,
:27:38. > :27:43.there's hope for you, both through councils and local government. And
:27:44. > :27:49.job centres themselves can help you. Thirdly, it brings us in line with
:27:49. > :27:56.Sweden, with Australia, and New Zealand have a two week wait. This
:27:56. > :28:00.is about thinking about work first. Laurie Penny? There's no reason you
:28:00. > :28:05.can't claim benefits and look for work at the same time. But you seem
:28:05. > :28:10.to be confused. You seem to have mixed up the idea of welfare with
:28:10. > :28:13.something that is a free hand-out. It is not. What Social Security is
:28:13. > :28:21.in a system of issue writs whereby if you lose your job, you should not
:28:21. > :28:24.be left destitute. -- a system of insurance. We have increasing use of
:28:24. > :28:28.food banks. A third of people who use them using them because of
:28:28. > :28:35.delays the benefit system. This will create a poverty trap, for small
:28:35. > :28:41.children into poverty. On Friday, I was looking at the Russell trust
:28:41. > :28:47.work. Most of the cases are to do with assessment of benefit, not the
:28:47. > :28:50.people who are waiting three days. Waiting seven days is about a
:28:50. > :28:54.mindset that you should spend the first seven days thinking about
:28:54. > :28:57.getting back to work, getting a CV ready. How can you think about
:28:57. > :29:02.getting back to work if you are worried about feeding your kids?
:29:02. > :29:05.When I said on Twitter that I was coming on TV to talk about the wait
:29:05. > :29:09.for benefits, I was contacted by a lot of people who have been in
:29:09. > :29:15.trouble. One was a woman who said, when I had to wait for my benefits,
:29:15. > :29:20.I had no help, no support, and I had... I couldn't even buy sanitary
:29:20. > :29:29.towels. These are people being left in the most if stream cases of
:29:29. > :29:34.indignity already. -- extreme cases. People without savings can go to the
:29:34. > :29:37.council for help. The idea that people are destitute is not true.
:29:37. > :29:42.don't know what world you live in, but we have a massive increase in
:29:42. > :29:45.the use of food banks and there are six job-seekers for every vacancy. I
:29:45. > :29:49.don't know what you think taking away money is going to make it
:29:50. > :29:56.easier. That sort of scaremongering... It's not
:29:56. > :30:00.scaremongering! People said crime would go up, none of it has
:30:00. > :30:04.happened. You need to go back and look at this sensibly. We are also
:30:05. > :30:13.saying that people should prepare to go back to work. That is being poor
:30:13. > :30:20.than nothing. It happens in Sweden. Sweden 's benefits are three times
:30:20. > :30:26.as generous as ours. We have some of the least generous benefits in the
:30:26. > :30:28.EU. In Scandinavia and other countries, using the Social Security
:30:28. > :30:35.system does not lead a person destitute in the way that benefits
:30:35. > :30:40.in the UK do. Let me interrupt you. It is not just from the left that
:30:40. > :30:44.you are being attacked. Let me show you what the taxpayers Alliance has
:30:44. > :30:49.had to say about this. We think the government is doing
:30:50. > :30:54.excellent work on welfare reform. However, there is one concern we
:30:54. > :30:58.have, about this idea of giving people a whole week before they can
:30:58. > :31:03.sign on. We wonder whether it might end up dissuading some people from
:31:03. > :31:10.taking short-term work. If that is an an intended consequence of this
:31:10. > :31:15.reform, it's something the government should look at at a game.
:31:15. > :31:20.I don't believe it will be because it has been tried in other countries
:31:20. > :31:25.and it works. Is it logical that you wouldn't look for temporary work
:31:25. > :31:31.again very quickly? Wouldn't that be logical if you are in this
:31:31. > :31:35.position, not getting benefits for a week? You would wait to sign on,
:31:35. > :31:44.wouldn't you? I think it depends on how we make sure we get the detail
:31:45. > :31:51.right on this. You have got no idea how the system really works. What do
:31:51. > :31:55.you think of Labour's response. This policy will do exactly what Labour
:31:55. > :32:01.and the Conservatives want to avoid, which is to make it less attractive
:32:01. > :32:07.for people already living on the breadline, seeking work, to take on
:32:07. > :32:16.those short-term contracts. If Ed Balls and company are willing to go
:32:17. > :32:21.along with it, they cannot think it will do too much damage. It seems
:32:21. > :32:30.that it is politicians right now who don't have any idea what is going on
:32:30. > :32:33.in the real world. I have been in politics for three years, I have
:32:33. > :32:36.built a business where we lived on the breadline for the first 12
:32:36. > :32:45.months because we had to use our credit cards to keep the business
:32:45. > :32:50.going. Not the same as a part-time security worker on the minimum wage.
:32:50. > :32:56.I don't disagree with you but the idea that we think of work first is
:32:57. > :33:01.a good one. People who don't have jobs think about work 24/7 and
:33:01. > :33:10.making them poorer is no way to push them into jobs that aren't there.
:33:10. > :33:17.Where are the jobs you are creating? It is a little after 11:30am. In 20
:33:17. > :33:25.minutes I will be looking at the week ahead with our political panel.
:33:25. > :33:30.Until then, the Sunday Politics across the UK.
:33:30. > :33:34.Hello and welcome. Coming up, the Chancellor gives and takes away.
:33:34. > :33:38.George Osborne announced plans this week the major investment in road
:33:38. > :33:48.and rail, while simultaneously announcing he was cutting funding
:33:48. > :33:55.
:33:55. > :34:00.for Transport for London. Welcome to my guests. Why don't we start with
:34:00. > :34:04.one of the main political themes dominating the headlines this week,
:34:04. > :34:09.the spending review. We can remind ourselves first of what the
:34:09. > :34:12.Chancellor told the House of Commons this week. While recovery from such
:34:13. > :34:18.a deep recession can never be straightforward, Britain is moving
:34:18. > :34:24.out of intensive care and from rescue to recovery. Gregg, a good
:34:24. > :34:27.day for London? I think a good day for London, a good day for the
:34:27. > :34:31.economy as the Chancellor laid out that we are trying to get the
:34:31. > :34:37.economy back on track after the biggest economic bust this country
:34:37. > :34:41.has had since the 1930s, an amazing 7% contraction of GDP under Labour
:34:41. > :34:46.so this is about getting the economy back on the road to recovery and
:34:46. > :34:50.investing in the future by a big programme of infrastructure works.
:34:50. > :34:59.We will get to infrastructure and the moment but what about the budget
:34:59. > :35:04.slashed by a further 10%? That pinch will be felt. Yes, but you have to
:35:04. > :35:09.bear in mind the amount of money we have given in support for council
:35:09. > :35:14.tax to be capped in coming years. The Government will support those
:35:14. > :35:18.councils that want to freeze council tax and well-run authorities like my
:35:18. > :35:23.own and Hammersmith and Fulham have been able to reduce council tax in
:35:24. > :35:30.recent years whilst maintaining an excellent level of services. The
:35:30. > :35:34.message being sent out is to be able to do more with less. Nick is
:35:34. > :35:38.shaking his head. When the Chancellor delivered his first
:35:38. > :35:42.financial statement he forecast that by now the country would be on the
:35:42. > :35:48.road to recovery. We would have growth of 6% and all would be well,
:35:48. > :35:54.but the problem he has got is that it hasn't worked. His austerity
:35:54. > :35:58.programme has failed. What did you want to hear? I wanted to hear about
:35:58. > :36:03.direct investment now rather than promises of investment two years
:36:03. > :36:07.ahead. There isn't anything in the statement that will kick-start
:36:07. > :36:14.recovery in either construction or housing in the short term and we
:36:14. > :36:18.needed desperately. I think Nick is calling for the Government to borrow
:36:18. > :36:22.more if I interpret that correctly. We are trying to bring a cap to the
:36:22. > :36:27.welfare bills for example so we can devote more money in future years to
:36:27. > :36:31.infrastructure spending on roads, railways, schools, apprenticeships
:36:31. > :36:36.in particular, which are vital for the future of the country. The
:36:36. > :36:40.problem we have had is that Labour has opposed every single cut we have
:36:40. > :36:43.made on the welfare side, opposed every single tax change we have
:36:43. > :36:53.tried to introduce, and Labour haven't got a credible economic
:36:53. > :37:03.policy. They have asked you what you would be doing and how you would be
:37:03. > :37:06.doing it. What are the policies? Conservative Government and Liberal
:37:06. > :37:11.Government is borrowing hand over fist because they have not met their
:37:11. > :37:16.targets, the economy is not recovering. Because of this, we have
:37:16. > :37:21.a really serious problem of very considerable extensive poverty,
:37:21. > :37:26.people out of work and dependent on benefits and the benefit levels are
:37:26. > :37:34.rising because of Government policies. We are going to look at
:37:34. > :37:37.one party in particular -- one policy in particular. The Sunday
:37:37. > :37:47.Politics has uncovered new information on the most notorious of
:37:47. > :37:49.
:37:49. > :37:55.roads, the M25, showing it has not managed one day without closure for
:37:55. > :38:05.four years. More money for roads was promised by George Osborne so how
:38:05. > :38:07.
:38:07. > :38:11.will that affect the way we move around this city? London's M25,
:38:11. > :38:16.destination for over 50 million journeys a year. But for the last
:38:16. > :38:20.three years it hasn't had a single day without closures of some kind,
:38:20. > :38:24.in fact the Highways Agency who operate the road don't know when the
:38:24. > :38:27.last day that it operated without closures was and despite a week of
:38:27. > :38:37.being asked by this programme, it has been unable to work out when it
:38:37. > :38:38.
:38:38. > :38:45.was. This freight company based couple of miles away, for them it is
:38:45. > :38:50.a serious issue. Our customers' freight has got to be there on tight
:38:50. > :38:58.deadlines and using the M25 as an excuse doesn't get warm because it
:38:58. > :39:08.is always there. It has an impact on overtime, deliveries, extra fuel, it
:39:08. > :39:10.
:39:10. > :39:14.is a problem. The company wanted to show us what they have to deal with.
:39:14. > :39:18.The stretch which causes them the most problems is here, where work to
:39:18. > :39:25.widen the road means traffic is often slow. It is not long before we
:39:25. > :39:31.grind to a halt. It is like it every morning, the M25 is the worst
:39:31. > :39:36.compared to any road in the country. It has the worst record of days
:39:36. > :39:46.without closures than any other road in London, although the M1 is not
:39:46. > :39:56.
:39:56. > :40:01.expenditure in the spending review in 2010, more recently the
:40:01. > :40:06.Government is putting money back into road maintenance so there have
:40:06. > :40:09.been two things going on. The Highways Agency has had to catch up
:40:09. > :40:13.with some historical maintenance, they have also been expanding and
:40:13. > :40:17.improving the network which means disruption, there is also wish to
:40:17. > :40:21.reduce the unit cost to make the work more efficient and that may
:40:21. > :40:24.mean there is a temptation to do the work in a way that is less
:40:24. > :40:32.convenient for traffic and more convenient for the people doing the
:40:32. > :40:36.work. Less night-time working for instance. At the spending review
:40:36. > :40:43.there was this announcement. We are already expanding investment on
:40:43. > :40:50.major road schemes but we are doing more, so we are announcing the
:40:50. > :40:55.biggest investment in our roads for half a century. Transport for
:40:55. > :41:00.London's funding was cut by 12.5% for the year 2016, and the mayor
:41:00. > :41:04.says this is tough but fair. We are confident with the settlement we
:41:04. > :41:08.have is that we can deliver all the stuff we need to do and all the
:41:08. > :41:15.stuff that Londoners want, the stuff that is essential for the vision we
:41:15. > :41:20.have set out for the city. spending review only dealt with one
:41:20. > :41:24.financial year, 2015/16, usually they deal with many more and with
:41:24. > :41:30.borrowing and spending still rising, we may have to wait until the next
:41:30. > :41:34.election to get a true sense of what the politicians have planned. Isn't
:41:34. > :41:39.it a little bit embarrassing? We have been waiting for a week for
:41:39. > :41:44.your Government to say when the last day was that the M25 was working
:41:45. > :41:54.properly and you haven't been able to tell us. The film speaks for
:41:54. > :41:59.itself. What is going on is major widening works going on. The M25 has
:41:59. > :42:05.been widened between ten junctions, so a third of the motorway in its
:42:05. > :42:09.entirety has been widened. Works have just started on a further areas
:42:09. > :42:19.between seven junctions, a further quarter of the motorway. This is
:42:19. > :42:20.
:42:20. > :42:25.about long-term investment in infrastructure. We also heard talk
:42:25. > :42:31.about historical underfunding. you widen the road, it will cause
:42:31. > :42:37.disruption. In 2010 the Government cutbacks of Ely on investment in
:42:37. > :42:40.transport including roads and now we are suffering the consequences. The
:42:40. > :42:43.Government cut too deeply in infrastructure in its first few
:42:44. > :42:49.years, he is trying to play catch up now but not doing very well, and
:42:49. > :42:59.pushing most of its promises into the period after 2015. After the
:42:59. > :43:03.next election. Your lot have been saying let's hear about some capital
:43:03. > :43:08.expenditure projects, let's get some movement, you have made massive
:43:08. > :43:12.promises for investment, you must be delighted. Athank heavens we got the
:43:12. > :43:17.Crossrail scheme going, that is changing London and it is proceeding
:43:17. > :43:25.but where are the new projects? They are all promised but they are some
:43:25. > :43:32.way down the line. High-speed one and high two are very
:43:32. > :43:36.controversial in some parts of the world, and we have Ed Cox with us to
:43:36. > :43:42.talk about it. Did it cause you great joy when you heard about these
:43:42. > :43:46.expenditure promises? We are slightly disappointed that the
:43:46. > :43:49.spending will come quite a long way ahead, but the other big concern we
:43:49. > :43:54.have with the announcement is the extent to which they are so focused
:43:54. > :43:58.on London and the south-east. I understand this is a London
:43:58. > :44:03.programme I am speaking on and London definitely needs more
:44:03. > :44:10.investment, but the analysis we have done shows that at present, and this
:44:10. > :44:16.is before the new announcements kick in, we are spending �2595 per person
:44:16. > :44:23.on transport infrastructure investment in London itself and only
:44:23. > :44:27.nine -- �5 per person in a region like the north-east. I think our
:44:27. > :44:30.concern is that whilst London is a very important city and we need to
:44:31. > :44:37.of course make sure that we accommodate some of its growth, we
:44:37. > :44:47.need a wide dude strategy that looks at how we spread the economic wealth
:44:47. > :44:47.
:44:47. > :44:56.across the country and invest in transport in the North. HS two is a
:44:56. > :45:00.huge investment. It is, but what the transport export say is that unless
:45:00. > :45:06.we build the infrastructure around those northern hobs in Manchester
:45:06. > :45:11.and Leeds and so on, there is a great danger it could be a drain
:45:11. > :45:21.straight down to London. We need to build up the infrastructure around
:45:21. > :45:26.those centres so that people can get in and out of them. Clearly we can't
:45:26. > :45:32.afford everything all the time. project happening at the moment is
:45:32. > :45:36.happening. We don't want to stop that. We have calculated that even
:45:36. > :45:42.if you add �9 billion to the figures we are looking at ourselves, we are
:45:42. > :45:49.going to be in a situation in 2016 when 90% of transport infrastructure
:45:49. > :45:59.spending on regional projects is going into London. Does that mean
:45:59. > :46:04.
:46:04. > :46:12.you are cutting the North Lewis? -- What about the inequality of
:46:12. > :46:18.investment to the rest of the country? Labour added ten miles of
:46:18. > :46:25.railway in their ten -- 13 years. We have a big process in Sheffield.
:46:25. > :46:34.There's HS2. We have taken the tough decision to go ahead with HS2 and
:46:34. > :46:40.make sure that important rail investment is going in.
:46:40. > :46:45.We got the first pitch as -- the first high-speed line. Major
:46:45. > :46:51.investments in London are the responsibility of the Labour
:46:51. > :46:57.government. If they are picking up the button and running with it,
:46:57. > :47:03.surely you are in a position to say, excellent? You only have to take it
:47:03. > :47:12.from the CBI. It is all promise. Delivery is poor. It is not �9
:47:12. > :47:18.billion on crossrail two. It is �2 million for planning. You both also
:47:18. > :47:21.have to address the points made by Ed a moment ago, that all of this
:47:21. > :47:26.investment is bubbling away in the capital. What about the rest of the
:47:26. > :47:35.country? Danny Alexander was clear yesterday that the important
:47:35. > :47:40.investment in London, like the act -- electrification of lines, these
:47:40. > :47:46.are not at the expense of the rest of the country. It is a really
:47:46. > :47:53.important infrastructure investment that was announced this week.
:47:54. > :47:58.said that. Tell me, why don't you...
:47:58. > :48:01.London is hugely important to the economy. We've also got to ensure
:48:01. > :48:09.appropriate infrastructure investment in other regions. The two
:48:09. > :48:13.should not be in competition. Do come back. 90% of our
:48:13. > :48:17.infrastructure funding is going into London and the south-east. That
:48:17. > :48:22.howls up government in the North East. -- that holds up. We have
:48:22. > :48:26.become more dependent on London. If we can't generate jobs and growth in
:48:26. > :48:30.the northern cities, then that actually means we have become more
:48:30. > :48:33.dependent on benefits and so on, which tracks the whole country
:48:33. > :48:37.back. We've got to get away from allowing the rest of the country to
:48:37. > :48:42.be a fiscal drag on London. What we need to see is the infrastructure
:48:42. > :48:48.investment going on inside London so we can grow our economies. Thank you
:48:48. > :48:53.very much. The cable car running between the O2 Centre in Greenwich
:48:53. > :48:57.and the Excel centre in Royal Victoria docks celebrated its first
:48:57. > :49:02.anniversary this week. It opened in time for the Olympics last year. But
:49:02. > :49:06.how have its fortunes fared since then?
:49:06. > :49:14.Taking off for the first time a year ago, the cable car was the first to
:49:14. > :49:17.hit the capital of Max Guise. But is it a happy first birthday? -- the
:49:17. > :49:26.capital 's skies. It was not supposed to cost the public aid
:49:26. > :49:32.penny, but it did. Not all of the costs were covered. Passenger
:49:32. > :49:35.numbers have not been sky-high. At its peak, the car was carrying over
:49:35. > :49:41.30,000 people per day. Now it only manages that a week. And that is
:49:41. > :49:44.when they can get on. In the first nine months, the cable car was hit
:49:44. > :49:48.by 69 on planned closures, mainly due to bad weather and tall ships
:49:48. > :49:52.passing through the Thames. What is stopping the cable car from getting
:49:52. > :49:56.off the ground? The mayor and transport for London
:49:56. > :50:01.need to think is the cable car a tourist attraction or is it a mode
:50:01. > :50:06.of transport? If a mode of transport, they need to make sure it
:50:06. > :50:12.is poured into the travel card so people cross the river with it. That
:50:13. > :50:17.is key to getting passenger numbers up, getting more income coming in.
:50:17. > :50:25.With a shaky start, will be cable car takeoff in its second year?
:50:25. > :50:32.-- V cable car. Is it a mode of transport? It's a tourist
:50:32. > :50:39.attraction. I go across it a loss. At is not a serious contributor -- I
:50:39. > :50:46.go across it a lot. But it is not a serious contributed to the city 's
:50:46. > :50:52.transport. Just for the fun factor, the
:50:52. > :50:59.pleasing of the tourists, is it... The numbers are shocking. The
:50:59. > :51:05.falloff has been shocking. Numbers are up. Last weekend, a lot of
:51:05. > :51:13.people were queueing to get on it. Was it a miss judged folly?
:51:13. > :51:17.I used to live about 25 years ago in that part of London. I remember how
:51:17. > :51:21.difficult it was to cross the Thames as a passenger. There's a real need
:51:21. > :51:27.in that part of London to be able to cross the Thames. I can't comment on
:51:27. > :51:32.how well it has functioned in the first year. A welcome addition. It
:51:32. > :51:38.is private sector funded. I'm looking forward to being on it. It's
:51:38. > :51:41.reminded me to go out with the family.
:51:41. > :51:45.If it is a series consideration to get people south of the river, it
:51:46. > :51:51.would have been nice to have a few more plans about how to do it.
:51:51. > :51:57.We are looking for a footbridge between Battersea and Fulham. There
:51:57. > :52:01.are other plans to cross the Thames for foot passengers. A tunnel is
:52:01. > :52:07.planned direct the underneath the cable car, which has been a long
:52:07. > :52:12.time coming. Hopefully it will get agreement from the Mayor.
:52:12. > :52:20.It is now time for the rest of the news in 62 seconds.
:52:20. > :52:23.-- in 60 seconds. The police commissioner said he is
:52:23. > :52:28.shocked by allegations that the Metropolitan Police had had
:52:28. > :52:32.attempted to smear the family of Stephen Lawrence. Undercover
:52:32. > :52:37.officers said they were instructed in 1993 to find information that
:52:37. > :52:42.could discredit the family and antiracism campaigners. London can
:52:42. > :52:50.take your breath away, literally. The names of the most polluted
:52:50. > :52:54.roads, with the North circular wheezing into first place.
:52:54. > :52:58.The first fleet of the new Route Master buses hit the road this week.
:52:58. > :53:04.At it was an inauspicious start. One of the buses broke down on its very
:53:04. > :53:08.first day. Islington Council were in a tight spot when one of their
:53:08. > :53:12.traffic calming measures proved to be anything but. After this incident
:53:12. > :53:21.in Drayton Park, the council put their hands up, saying, sometimes,
:53:21. > :53:25.as they counsel, you make mistakes. -- as a council.
:53:25. > :53:29.Shall we just have a quick chat about the Stephen Lawrence case?
:53:29. > :53:34.What does it tell us about policing in London today?
:53:34. > :53:41.I don't think it tells us much about policing in London. It tells us
:53:41. > :53:47.about the failure of policing in London 20 years ago. There was an
:53:47. > :53:54.inept investigation. This further evidence is compounding the story.
:53:54. > :53:58.What do you need to do to reinstate confidence in the public?
:53:58. > :54:02.I think the Prime Minister did the right thing. As soon as the news or
:54:02. > :54:06.allegations came out, he announced an immediate investigation into what
:54:06. > :54:10.happened at the time. I think the Home Secretary has met with the
:54:10. > :54:14.Lawrence family to talk about that investigation, and I think we're
:54:14. > :54:21.going to make good progress there. Obviously, it happened some time
:54:21. > :54:24.ago. It's important that this never be allowed to happen again.
:54:24. > :54:29.Are we being complacent by saying it happened in the past when we have
:54:29. > :54:37.stories of police going undercover, sleeping with people, making them
:54:37. > :54:42.pregnant while operations? It's a different force. I have been
:54:42. > :54:47.working closely with the police since the killing of Lee Rigby. The
:54:47. > :54:54.police are sensitive to the needs of the ethnic minority communities in
:54:54. > :54:57.our areas. They have been proactive in stopping the BNP and EDL from
:54:57. > :55:01.stirring up trouble and dissent between communities. Police are, in
:55:01. > :55:06.my view, taking a much more positive, proactive view towards
:55:06. > :55:11.community relations. Do you accept there is a perception problem, and
:55:11. > :55:15.if so, how do you address it? has to separate recent incidents
:55:15. > :55:23.with something that happened a long time ago. You say these cases
:55:23. > :55:27.happened a long time ago. But some are not so long ago. It is story
:55:27. > :55:33.after story after story, and that does have an impact on people 's
:55:33. > :55:36.confident in their police force. confidence.
:55:36. > :55:44.We have to wait for the various studies that are going on. I think
:55:44. > :55:50.you're trying to draw a lot of dots and a lot of lines between them.
:55:50. > :55:55.showing you a flurry of headlines and the impact on the people who
:55:55. > :55:59.read them. There's been a real improvement in police sensitivity on
:55:59. > :56:06.many community and ethnic issues in London. But it's a big body, is
:56:06. > :56:08.still make mistakes, and as he said, these have got to be investigated.
:56:08. > :56:14.It's an excitable to have stories about police bugging people,
:56:14. > :56:24.particularly victims of crime, in the way that Stephen Lawrence was.
:56:24. > :56:24.
:56:24. > :56:32.-- it is an acceptable. In a moment, we look ahead to the
:56:32. > :56:36.big stories of next week. First, the news with Maxine Mawhinney.
:56:36. > :56:41.David Cameron has promised to stand together with Pakistan in the fight
:56:41. > :56:45.against terrorism after talks with Pakistan 's new prime minister. Mr
:56:45. > :56:50.Cameron is the first world leader to visit him since his election last
:56:50. > :56:54.month. Our political correspondent is travelling with the Prime
:56:54. > :56:57.Minister. The report contains some flash photography.
:56:57. > :57:03.In a joint statement in this faltering gardens of the primers
:57:03. > :57:06.that public residents, David Cameron said the relationship between
:57:06. > :57:10.Pakistan and Afghanistan was of vital importance. He said Britain
:57:10. > :57:18.and Pakistan had a shared interest in establishing a stable, peaceful
:57:18. > :57:21.and democratic Afghanistan. The enemies of Pakistan are the
:57:21. > :57:23.enemies of Britain. We will stand together and conduct this fight
:57:23. > :57:30.against extremism and terrorism together.
:57:31. > :57:40.I have assured the Prime Minister of our firm resolve to promote a shared
:57:41. > :57:42.
:57:42. > :57:47.objective of a peaceful and stable Afghanistan.
:57:47. > :57:50.Mr Cameron also hopes his visit here will provide more opportunities for
:57:50. > :57:58.British businesses, building on the historic and cultural ties between
:57:58. > :58:02.the countries. He is another new goal, a �3 billion level in
:58:02. > :58:07.bilateral trade. There have been accusations about
:58:07. > :58:11.the extent of spying by America 's NSA. This time, they involve the
:58:11. > :58:21.European Union. The former CIA contractor Edward Snowden told a
:58:21. > :58:27.German newspaper that the NSA bugged officers in Europe.
:58:27. > :58:30.Today marks the first anniversary of Mohamed Morsi 's election in
:58:30. > :58:34.Europe. There are expected to be rallies in support of an against the
:58:34. > :58:38.president. Crowds are already gathering in Tahrir Square. That was
:58:38. > :58:43.the scene of the uprising which toppled the former leader.
:58:43. > :58:45.The Rolling Stones and their legions of fans are recovering this morning
:58:45. > :58:55.after they completed their first ever appearance at the Glastonbury
:58:55. > :58:58.Festival. The band played for over two hours,
:58:58. > :59:03.with Michael Beavis describing the set is the highlight of his 43 years
:59:03. > :59:07.organising the event. Prince Harry was recorded to be among those
:59:07. > :59:17.watching. The festival ends this evening. That is all for now. More
:59:17. > :59:27.news on BBC One at 6:35pm. So, how will the politics of the
:59:27. > :59:27.
:59:27. > :59:37.Spending Review play out? It comes to the Commons next week. These are
:59:37. > :59:42.all questions for The Week Ahead. So, the Chancellor tweeted a famous
:59:42. > :59:49.picture of himself on the eve of the Spending Review. Let's have a look
:59:49. > :59:53.at that. It shows him having a hamburger. That is Eric Pickles.
:59:53. > :59:58.That is the next one we wanted. That is the Chancellor. It is hard to
:59:58. > :00:07.mistake them, really. The argument is that it was a posh hamburger. He
:00:07. > :00:13.then took a look of money -- a look at Eric Pickles and made a joke. He
:00:13. > :00:19.then tweeted himself having a salad and some carrots and being far
:00:19. > :00:25.healthier than the Chancellor. Janan Ganesh, the Spending Review has not
:00:25. > :00:31.called the Coalition -- caused the Coalition much trouble. You get a
:00:31. > :00:36.sense of a number of things happening. The atmospherics are
:00:36. > :00:40.turning a bit against Labour. You don't need to follow politics
:00:40. > :00:46.forensically to understand that the intellectual centre is moving right
:00:46. > :00:48.on the economy and welfare. There are tentative signs of recovery in
:00:48. > :00:53.the economy. This week has gone without too much incident for the
:00:53. > :00:59.government. I would insert a word of caution. There's now a better than
:00:59. > :01:02.one in three chance of some kind global economic chance -- crisis in
:01:02. > :01:06.the next year. If you look at the first rumblings of a credit crunch
:01:06. > :01:13.in China, the fact the eurozone crisis is nowhere near resolve, the
:01:13. > :01:22.government would be wise to counsel caution rather than throwing about
:01:22. > :01:31.what is a fairly thin recovery so far. -- crowing. The Labour lead is
:01:31. > :01:38.down to five points, and on public spending are austerity, 49% are
:01:38. > :01:41.still blaming the last Labour Government. It's funny because
:01:41. > :01:50.Labour didn't really believe it when they were on eight or nine so that
:01:50. > :01:54.might cause them too much bother. George Osborne, we get the revision
:01:54. > :01:58.from -1 20 and that is seen as a massive triumph for him. It is
:01:58. > :02:02.interesting you can create your own baseline as Chancellor and any
:02:02. > :02:09.deviation from that be seen as exciting. If you were a Labour
:02:09. > :02:15.strategist at the moment, you would not be entering the summer recess in
:02:15. > :02:24.great shape. One note of caution, the maths here is that Labour starts
:02:24. > :02:33.with a huge advantage and the moment Nick Clegg signed a coalition deal,
:02:33. > :02:40.Labour started from 3539. I think the Spending Review will not matter
:02:40. > :02:45.a great deal at all. In six months, I think only George Osborne will
:02:45. > :02:54.remember it. What matters here is what happens to the global economy
:02:55. > :02:59.and the borrowing costs in the year. I find that quite depressing because
:02:59. > :03:03.the way this has been presented, I can see why people feel politics
:03:03. > :03:13.doesn't speak to them because they are just seen as collateral damage
:03:13. > :03:13.
:03:13. > :03:18.in a game between Ed Balls and George Osborne. Labour knows that it
:03:18. > :03:22.has two tough on its rhetoric on welfare knows it has a serious
:03:22. > :03:31.problem. The most remarkable thing to have happened over the last three
:03:31. > :03:35.years is the normal politicisation of austerity. I got the sense that
:03:35. > :03:40.when the cuts were read out on Wednesday, a lot of people were
:03:40. > :03:43.bought by them and that would have been impossible to imagine in 2010
:03:43. > :03:49.when the first spending round occurred. We thought it would
:03:49. > :03:53.provoke a lot more hostility and hostile opinion than it has done.
:03:53. > :03:57.One thing Labour might do to try to regain the initiative again is to
:03:57. > :04:01.come onside on the need for a referendum over Europe. There is
:04:01. > :04:11.some speculation in the press the upper echelons of the Labour Party
:04:11. > :04:14.
:04:14. > :04:21.are split on this. Someone at Ed Miliband to commit. This is an
:04:21. > :04:25.internal Tory obsession. I think the Tory backbenchers for who this is
:04:25. > :04:33.the most important thing in the world right now, let them get on
:04:33. > :04:40.with it. There are some rumblings that Ed Miliband will have to change
:04:40. > :04:44.his position. You will open a can of worms for David Cameron. At one
:04:44. > :04:51.point it looked like his entire party had a completely different
:04:51. > :04:56.position than him on Europe. On the one hand you have Douglas Alexander
:04:56. > :04:59.saying to Ed Miliband don't be drawn on this, don't get forced into a
:04:59. > :05:04.referendum on Europe because those who want to stay in might lose, on
:05:04. > :05:08.the other hand you have Ed balls being much more pragmatic saying
:05:08. > :05:12.there is potentially a great short-term opportunity and a risk
:05:12. > :05:17.for Labour if it goes into the next election looking like it is against
:05:17. > :05:22.voters having a choice. Do they want Ed Miliband to promise a referendum
:05:22. > :05:29.this side of the election, which he has no power to bring about I would
:05:29. > :05:34.suggest, or to include it in his manifesto? It is hard to tell
:05:34. > :05:39.because the Shadow Cabinet is not discussing this. What Ed Miliband
:05:39. > :05:48.essentially wants is for this to go away. The politics are fraught for
:05:48. > :05:52.the Conservatives because the bill is designed to put Labour in a
:05:52. > :05:56.difficult position. The Lib Dems are not going to turn up, my
:05:56. > :06:06.understanding is that Labour probably won't turn up either.
:06:06. > :06:08.
:06:08. > :06:17.and it is impossible to propose a referendum without content... There
:06:17. > :06:22.are plenty of backbenchers who would get the referendum tomorrow if they
:06:22. > :06:28.could have won. The Tories have struggled over the past 20 years to
:06:28. > :06:33.understand the public have agreed with them on Europe but it is not in
:06:33. > :06:39.the top of their concerns. Why are all these names in the paper of
:06:39. > :06:45.Labour people who want a referendum? Ivan Lewis, John
:06:45. > :06:51.Trickett, Maria Eagle and Angela Eagle, a couple of Eagles, so if it
:06:51. > :07:01.is such a problem for them, wouldn't it be better to let the
:07:01. > :07:03.
:07:03. > :07:09.Conservatives bang on about it? forces David Cameron's hand, he
:07:10. > :07:14.asked to campaign yes. There was a sense this is building and although
:07:14. > :07:17.the political class wants to avoid a referendum, it is not top of the
:07:17. > :07:22.list of people's priorities, and there is a sense that over the next
:07:22. > :07:31.five years Britain has to settle this. Are we inside Europe and
:07:31. > :07:35.determined to stay in ? Pushing for it now is highly risky for Labour,
:07:35. > :07:40.on the one hand you would divide the Tories because it would be a
:07:40. > :07:45.referendum of the status quo, not repatriation, status quo versus out,
:07:45. > :07:50.and you could lose a referendum on that. Because no renegotiation can
:07:50. > :07:56.take place before 2015 so that will probably be the thing that stops
:07:56. > :08:03.them taking that step. Yes or no, we'll Labour have a referendum in
:08:03. > :08:13.their manifesto for the next election? Yes, after the election.
:08:13. > :08:13.
:08:13. > :08:17.Three yes it is, I had better quit while I am ahead. The Daily Politics
:08:17. > :08:20.is back tomorrow at the earlier time of 11 o'clock and we'll be back here