:00:39. > :00:44.Good morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. It would be
:00:45. > :00:47.extremely difficult, if not impossible, for an independent
:00:48. > :00:51.Scotland to join the European Union, so says the President of the
:00:52. > :00:56.European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, in a significant
:00:57. > :01:00.development in the independence debate. It's our top story. He has
:01:01. > :01:10.the power to bring travel chaos to the nation's capital. Bob Crow
:01:11. > :01:13.joined us for the Sunday interview. Another by-election and another
:01:14. > :01:17.second place for UKIP. How big a threat does Nigel Farage's party
:01:18. > :01:21.pose for the Conservatives? In London, a week when the mayor set
:01:22. > :01:22.out his budget for next year. We look at his decisions and priorities
:01:23. > :01:41.with the help of his chief of staff. With me, the best and brightest
:01:42. > :01:44.political panel in the business The twits will be as incessant and
:01:45. > :01:48.probably as welcome as the recent rain. A significant new development
:01:49. > :01:50.in the debate over Scottish independence this morning, the
:01:51. > :01:56.President of the European Commission, President Jose Manuel
:01:57. > :01:59.Barroso, has confirmed what the Nationalists have long denied, that
:02:00. > :02:03.an independent Scotland would have to reply to join the European Union
:02:04. > :02:07.as a new member, that it would require the agreement of all 28
:02:08. > :02:11.member states and that would be in his words, extremely difficult, if
:02:12. > :02:15.not impossible. In case there is a new country, a new state coming out
:02:16. > :02:22.of a current member state, it will have to apply and, this is very
:02:23. > :02:25.important, the application to the union would have to be approved by
:02:26. > :02:33.all of the other member states. Countries like Spain, with the
:02:34. > :02:37.secessionist issues they have? I don't want to interfere in your
:02:38. > :02:40.democratic discussion here, but of course, it will be extremely
:02:41. > :02:45.difficult to get the approval of all of the other member states, to have
:02:46. > :02:54.a new member coming in from one member state. We have seen that that
:02:55. > :02:58.Spain has been opposing even the recognition, for instance, so it is
:02:59. > :03:00.a similar state. It is a new country. I believe it is great to be
:03:01. > :03:08.externally difficult, if not impossible. Well, he says he doesn't
:03:09. > :03:11.want to interfere, but he has just dropped a medium-sized explosive
:03:12. > :03:15.into the debate on Scottish independence? A huge story. Alex
:03:16. > :03:19.Salmond must be wondering what is going to go wrong next. His pitch to
:03:20. > :03:23.the Scottish people is based on two things, the currency union with
:03:24. > :03:30.England and the rest of the United Kingdom, which was blown apart last
:03:31. > :03:41.week, and this morning, his claims that Scotland would automatically
:03:42. > :03:47.get into the European Union has been dynamited. He's not only saying that
:03:48. > :03:54.they would have to apply, it is also saying it might be impossible to get
:03:55. > :03:58.the agreement of all 28 members to allow Scotland in. That's even more
:03:59. > :04:03.significant than the application? The reference to Spain is
:04:04. > :04:07.interesting, we talk about Catalan independence, an economic and active
:04:08. > :04:11.area that Spain does not want to be independent. About five other
:04:12. > :04:15.countries are blocking Kosovo's accession to the EU. There is no
:04:16. > :04:21.reason they would want to encourage the secessionist in their country by
:04:22. > :04:24.letting Scotland do the same. If Scotland does have to apply, and it
:04:25. > :04:31.does get in, it solves the currency problem because all new members have
:04:32. > :04:34.to accept the Euro? At the moment, the SNP are rejecting that quite
:04:35. > :04:39.strongly. What an interesting intervention today. However, I know
:04:40. > :04:45.that those arguing that Scotland should stay in the union are worried
:04:46. > :04:51.that the polls are tightening. A lot of these interventions, parents care
:04:52. > :04:57.arguments, they don't look like they are convincing the Scottish people.
:04:58. > :05:01.We haven't had any polls yet? We haven't, but we have since the
:05:02. > :05:06.currency debate was reignited in the last few weeks and it shows the
:05:07. > :05:09.polls tightening slightly. I think Alistair Darling's campaign would
:05:10. > :05:12.prefer to be much further ahead at the stage. They are worried that
:05:13. > :05:17.these technical commandments are not having much sway. Are the polls
:05:18. > :05:23.tightening slightly? They could be within the statistical margin for
:05:24. > :05:28.error. They are, but not much. Alex Salmond's main page is one of
:05:29. > :05:30.reassurance. He wants to say you can vote for independence, a pound in
:05:31. > :05:34.the pocket will be the same as before and you will still be a
:05:35. > :05:40.member of the European Union. In the last three or four matter days, both
:05:41. > :05:46.of those claims have been blown apart. Angus MacNeil has already
:05:47. > :05:50.told BBC Radio 5 Live that the remarks are nonsense and he is
:05:51. > :05:54.playing more politics. We hope to speak to the SNP's finance minister,
:05:55. > :05:59.John Swinney, a little bit later in the programme. It is not just the
:06:00. > :06:02.constant rain that London commuters have had to deal with. There was
:06:03. > :06:07.also a strike on the tube that disrupted the travel of millions. A
:06:08. > :06:10.second stoppage was on the cards, but it was called off at the last
:06:11. > :06:14.minute. The leader of the biggest
:06:15. > :06:19.underground workers union, the RMT, is Bob Crow, who has led his members
:06:20. > :06:23.into 24 strikes on the tube since 2005, as well as disputes on the
:06:24. > :06:28.national rail network. Under his leadership, the union's membership
:06:29. > :06:31.has grown from 57,000 in 2002 to more than 80,000, at a time when
:06:32. > :06:36.union membership overall has been shrinking. The current dispute has
:06:37. > :06:40.seen Bob Crow squaring up to Boris Johnson over the mayor's plans to
:06:41. > :06:43.close tube station ticket offices. The 48-hour stoppage at the
:06:44. > :06:48.beginning of this month is estimated to have cost the London economy ?100
:06:49. > :06:53.million. The two sides have agreed a truce, for now, but Mr Crow has
:06:54. > :06:57.threatened further action if the mayor imposes his changes.
:06:58. > :07:06.Bob Crow joins me now for the Sunday interview.
:07:07. > :07:13.Welcome to the Sunday Politics. You have suspended the strike for the
:07:14. > :07:18.moment. What will it take to call it off entirely? Want to know first of
:07:19. > :07:21.all wider booking office has to close. The Mayor of London made it
:07:22. > :07:25.quite clear in his election programme that the booking offices
:07:26. > :07:28.would remain open. It was strange, really, because Ken Livingstone
:07:29. > :07:31.wanted to close them down and the mayor thought it was popular to keep
:07:32. > :07:37.them open and put in his campaign to keep them open. However, we have not
:07:38. > :07:41.the news figures. We are being told only 3% of people use the booking
:07:42. > :07:44.offices. That's not true. In research done, if somebody does to a
:07:45. > :07:48.booking office with somebody sitting there and asks for a ticket of less
:07:49. > :07:54.than ?5, they are not allowed to sell them a ticket, it is madness.
:07:55. > :08:00.Do you use the ticket office? When it is open, yes. You said to ITV
:08:01. > :08:04.that he didn't. I don't know what I said to ITV, I don't know what time
:08:05. > :08:07.people use them, sometimes they are open and sometimes they are closed.
:08:08. > :08:11.People make out that these ticket office staff are people that sit
:08:12. > :08:15.behind barriers like a newsagent. I'm not knocking a newsagent,
:08:16. > :08:21.however, these people were the same people treated like Lions when they
:08:22. > :08:26.were helping people named in the terrorist incidents, taking them out
:08:27. > :08:30.of the panels. Suddenly they are lazy people that sit in ticket
:08:31. > :08:35.offices. My understanding is that the people would come from behind
:08:36. > :08:38.and be out and about now. It is the management wants to run the
:08:39. > :08:44.underground without ticket offices, isn't that their prerogative? They
:08:45. > :08:50.are paid to manage, not you, not your members, they are the managers?
:08:51. > :08:52.Managers are there to manage, and we want good managers. But we've got
:08:53. > :08:55.some really bad managers that are not looking at the railway as a
:08:56. > :08:58.whole. This is a successful industry, not an industry in
:08:59. > :09:02.decline, one of the most successful in Britain. It is moving 3.4 million
:09:03. > :09:07.people a day. All of the forecast is or it will move to 3.6 million per
:09:08. > :09:11.day. The mayor wants to run services on a Friday and Saturday night. We
:09:12. > :09:14.are not opposed to that. However, it does not make sense that if more
:09:15. > :09:19.people are going to be using the tube on Friday and Saturday, coming
:09:20. > :09:22.home at two o'clock three o'clock in the morning, a lot of people
:09:23. > :09:29.drinking, a lot of people not dragging, why take 1000 people of
:09:30. > :09:33.the network that come to the aid of people that are looking to people? I
:09:34. > :09:41.want to show you this picture. This is you. Taking a break in Brazil, I
:09:42. > :09:45.think it is. I was trying to copy you. You deserve this break because
:09:46. > :09:50.you have done a fantastic job for your members. Yes, I don't see what
:09:51. > :09:54.that has got to do with it. Let s get every editor of the daily
:09:55. > :09:57.newspapers and see where they go on their holidays, I would like to
:09:58. > :10:02.know. What I choose to do... I'm not attacking you for doing that...
:10:03. > :10:05.You've got a picture up there, I've got to say, why don't they go and
:10:06. > :10:10.follow Boris Johnson when he was away on holiday, when the riots were
:10:11. > :10:13.taking place in London, and he refused to come back? Why don't they
:10:14. > :10:17.go and view the editors of newspapers, where they go on
:10:18. > :10:21.holiday? Why do they look at you when you go on holiday? They
:10:22. > :10:27.sometimes do, actually. The basic pay of a tube driver will soon be
:10:28. > :10:32.?52,000. Ticket office workers are already earning over ?35,000. Never
:10:33. > :10:35.mind a holiday on Copacabana beach, or membership by your house for what
:10:36. > :10:39.you have done for them? When you look at the papers this morning I
:10:40. > :10:43.see that Wayne Rooney is going to get a ?70 million deal over the next
:10:44. > :10:51.four deals. I see NHS doctors are getting ?3000 a shift. I see a lot
:10:52. > :10:55.of people that do a lot of people that, in my opinion, don't do
:10:56. > :10:58.anything for society. The top paid people in this country should be
:10:59. > :11:03.doctors and nurses. Unfortunately, we live in a jungle. If you are not
:11:04. > :11:06.strong, the bosses will walk all over you. The reason why we got good
:11:07. > :11:11.terms and conditions is because we fought for them. The reality is all
:11:12. > :11:15.of these three political parties, liberals, Tories and Labour, they
:11:16. > :11:19.have all put no programme that to defend working people. So we have to
:11:20. > :11:22.do it on our own. And that is why you have done such a great job for
:11:23. > :11:25.your members and why union membership has been rising, people
:11:26. > :11:30.want to be part of a successful operation. But it has come at a cost
:11:31. > :11:36.for less well-paid workers, who travel on the cheap? If everyone
:11:37. > :11:39.believes if London Underground tube workers take a pay freeze they are
:11:40. > :11:42.going to redistribute the money to the rest of the workers that work on
:11:43. > :11:47.the cheap... But the people that travel on the tube, let's look at
:11:48. > :11:53.some of them, they are the ones that suffer from your strike action. The
:11:54. > :11:57.starting salary of a cheap driver now, ?48,000. The starting salary
:11:58. > :12:03.for a nurses only ?26,000, ?22, 00 for a young policeman, ?27,000 for a
:12:04. > :12:10.teacher starting out. As your members have spread, they have had
:12:11. > :12:17.to live through 24 strikes in 1 years to push up your members
:12:18. > :12:23.wages. It's I'm all right Jack? The have put a pay freeze on by
:12:24. > :12:26.conservatives and liberals. The police constables, so have the
:12:27. > :12:31.teachers. We have had the ability to go and fight. The reality is, at the
:12:32. > :12:37.end of the day, as I have said before, no one is going to put up
:12:38. > :12:41.the cause for workers. Not one single party in parliament are
:12:42. > :12:44.fighting the cause for workers. They all support privatisation, they all
:12:45. > :12:48.support keeping the anti-trade union laws, they all support illegal wars
:12:49. > :12:52.around the world. Unless they have a fighting trade union, our members
:12:53. > :12:56.pay would be as low as some others. You said we could not care less if
:12:57. > :13:01.we have 1 million strikes. But these people, the lower paid people who
:13:02. > :13:06.travel on the tube, who need it as an essential service, they care Of
:13:07. > :13:10.course they care, I've said before that I apologise to the troubling
:13:11. > :13:18.public for the dispute that took place. 24 strikes in 13 years? It
:13:19. > :13:22.two to tango. If the boy never imposed terms and conditions on us
:13:23. > :13:26.against our will... But you've got great terms and conditions! But it's
:13:27. > :13:33.a constant battle, they are trying to change them. Drivers are having
:13:34. > :13:37.their pay going up to ?50,000. You said they are making it worse, it is
:13:38. > :13:40.going up. They are trying to make things worse for workers. You said
:13:41. > :13:45.at the start of the interview that the tube strike cost ?100 million in
:13:46. > :13:50.two days. It means that when members go to work for two days it is worth
:13:51. > :13:54.?100 million. That demonstrates what they are worth. Only a fighting
:13:55. > :13:58.trade union can defend workers out there. Your members should enjoy
:13:59. > :14:03.what you have got for them, because it's not going to last, is it?
:14:04. > :14:08.Technology will change the whole way your business operates. As Karl Marx
:14:09. > :14:12.says, you said I was a mixture of Karl Marx, Only Fools And Horses and
:14:13. > :14:16.the Sopranos. I thought that was quite funny... The Karl Marx part of
:14:17. > :14:25.it, the only thing that is constant is change. We have been crying out
:14:26. > :14:29.for new technology. But for who To put people on the dole, so they
:14:30. > :14:33.can't do anything and do anything for society, or technology so
:14:34. > :14:37.everybody benefits, lower fares better service and better terms and
:14:38. > :14:40.conditions for the workers. But you have made Labour so expensive on the
:14:41. > :14:44.underground that management now has a huge incentive to substitute
:14:45. > :14:49.technology for Labour. And that s what it's going to do, it is closing
:14:50. > :14:54.the ticket offices and very soon, starting in 2016, the driverless
:14:55. > :15:03.trains coming. What I am saying is that your members should enjoy this
:15:04. > :15:13.because it's not going to last. Driverless trains are not coming
:15:14. > :15:19.in, it is not safe. We have them in Nuremberg, Shanghai, Sao Paulo, it
:15:20. > :15:24.is not safe? These are new lines that have been built so that when it
:15:25. > :15:28.breaks down, people can get out of the tunnel. Would you want to be
:15:29. > :15:35.stuck on a summers day on the Northern line? A pregnant woman who
:15:36. > :15:40.cannot get off the train? Absolute panic that takes place, the reality
:15:41. > :15:46.is simple, it is a nonsense. It s not going to happen because it is a
:15:47. > :15:54.Victorian network. On Docklands railway for example it is driverless
:15:55. > :16:00.but when the train breaks down, it is above ground on a very small
:16:01. > :16:06.section. All of these other cities managed to have it. You remind me
:16:07. > :16:22.about Henry Ford in the 1930s when he said, you see that robot over
:16:23. > :16:26.their, he cannot buy a car. All sorts of new jobs are being created
:16:27. > :16:32.all the time in other areas. Come back to the ticket offices, not many
:16:33. > :16:37.people use the ticket offices any more, what is wrong with getting the
:16:38. > :16:42.stuff out of the ticket office on to the concourses, meeting and
:16:43. > :16:47.greeting, helping disabled people and tourists and making it a better
:16:48. > :16:52.service? They can do more on the concourse than they can in the
:16:53. > :16:59.ticket office. Andrew, he took the decision to close down every single
:17:00. > :17:07.ticket office. You cannot compare for example Chesham with the likes
:17:08. > :17:12.of Heathrow. Are you telling me people are going to be on a long
:17:13. > :17:17.transatlantic flight, arrived at Heathrow and cannot get a ticket.
:17:18. > :17:23.The stuff will be redeployed on the concourse. The simple problem is
:17:24. > :17:30.that it is not just about the booking office, it is about people
:17:31. > :17:35.having a visual. If you are partially sighted, you cannot use
:17:36. > :17:42.the machines. If British is not your first language, you cannot use the
:17:43. > :17:51.offices. How many languages do your members speak? I don't know, I
:17:52. > :17:57.struggle with English. The machines can speak many different languages.
:17:58. > :18:04.They are dehumanising things. You phone the bank, all you hear is
:18:05. > :18:08.press one for this, two for that. People want to hear it human being
:18:09. > :18:15.and what makes the London Underground so precious is that
:18:16. > :18:20.people want to see people. Having well-dressed, motivated people out
:18:21. > :18:24.on the concourse, what part of that don't you like? They will be on the
:18:25. > :18:29.concourse and they will have machines. The fact is that London
:18:30. > :18:32.Underground did a risk assessment of closing down their booking offices
:18:33. > :18:37.and it is clear that if you are disabled, if you are partially
:18:38. > :18:44.sighted, London Underground becomes more dangerous. You are posing the
:18:45. > :18:52.closing of ticket offices, opposing driverless trains, when you opposed
:18:53. > :19:07.to the Oyster card when it came in? No, Oyster cards, it is how you deal
:19:08. > :19:12.with it. It is not the only way They should supplement the staff and
:19:13. > :19:18.the job. If more people used the London Underground system, you want
:19:19. > :19:26.more staff to deal with them. Let's look at your mandate to strike. Of
:19:27. > :19:34.your members who work on the Tube, only 40% bothered to vote. Only 30%
:19:35. > :19:39.voted for the strike, so 70% actually didn't vote to strike of
:19:40. > :19:45.your members, but the strike went ahead. Isn't it right to have a
:19:46. > :19:50.higher threshold before you can cause this disruption? It would be
:19:51. > :19:56.lovely if everyone voted but the Tories took that away. We used to
:19:57. > :20:01.have ballots at the workplace. What I'm trying to say to you is that we
:20:02. > :20:08.used to have a ballot box at the workplace and the turnouts were
:20:09. > :20:14.higher. The Tories believe that if they can have a secret ballot where
:20:15. > :20:19.ballot papers went to people's home addresses, where they could be
:20:20. > :20:24.persuaded by the bosses, votes would be different. Let's go back to the
:20:25. > :20:31.workplace ballot because you get a bigger turnout. Will the RMT
:20:32. > :20:36.re-affiliate to the Labour Party? I have no intention to. We got
:20:37. > :20:45.expelled from the Labour Party. But you will give some money to the
:20:46. > :20:54.Labour councils? Those that support our basic policies get money, we
:20:55. > :20:58.don't give money directly to MPs, we give it to constituencies. Are you
:20:59. > :21:08.going to stand for re-election in 2016? I might do, I might not. You
:21:09. > :21:16.haven't decided yet? No, but more than likely I will do. And will you
:21:17. > :21:22.stand again as an anti-EU candidate? Yes, I am standing in London, and
:21:23. > :21:28.right across, completely different to UKIP's policies. They are
:21:29. > :21:34.anti-European, they believe all of the faults of Europe are down to the
:21:35. > :21:40.immigrants. We are anti-European Union. If London Underground is as
:21:41. > :21:47.badly run as you think, why don t you run for mayor? That is down the
:21:48. > :21:52.road, it has not come up yet. I m not ruling anything out. I'm not
:21:53. > :21:58.ruling out getting your job on the Sunday Politics. You have got to
:21:59. > :22:05.retire as well, you have got to put your feet up. I will get you to
:22:06. > :22:10.renegotiate my package. Shall we go on strike first? If I could have
:22:11. > :22:21.your wages, I would have two trips to Rio every year. Good luck. And if
:22:22. > :22:28.you're in the London region they'll have more on the Tube strike later
:22:29. > :22:34.in the programme. Let's get back to those comments from Jose Manuel
:22:35. > :22:40.Barroso, and reaction to these comments from John Swinney. Scottish
:22:41. > :22:46.Nationalists denied all along you would have to reapply, we have now
:22:47. > :22:53.heard it without any caveats, you will and you might not get in. I
:22:54. > :23:00.think Jose Manuel Barroso's comments were preposterous this morning. He
:23:01. > :23:07.compared the situation to the one in Kosovo. Britain is the member,
:23:08. > :23:12.Scotland is not the member. If you go independent, you will have to
:23:13. > :23:16.reapply, he says. All of the arrangements we have in place are
:23:17. > :23:21.compatible with the workings of the European Union because we have been
:23:22. > :23:27.part of it for 40 years. The propositions we put forward work
:23:28. > :23:31.about essentially negotiating the continuity of Scotland's membership
:23:32. > :23:37.of the European Union and that position has now been explained and
:23:38. > :23:49.debated and discussed and reinforced by comments made by experts. We are
:23:50. > :23:52.talking about the president of the European commission and we have
:23:53. > :23:57.spoken to him since he gave that interview on the BBC this morning,
:23:58. > :24:06.it was an intervention that he made that he wanted to lay out that
:24:07. > :24:14.Scotland should be in no doubt that if they vote for independence they
:24:15. > :24:19.will have to apply for European membership and they may not get it
:24:20. > :24:23.if it is vetoed by other members. What he didn't say is that no state
:24:24. > :24:29.of the European Union have indicated they would veto Scottish
:24:30. > :24:35.membership. The Spanish foreign minister has. They have said that if
:24:36. > :24:38.there is an agreed process within the UK that Scotland becomes an
:24:39. > :24:43.independent country, then Spain has got nothing to say about the issue.
:24:44. > :24:48.That indicates to me clearly that the Spanish government will have no
:24:49. > :24:52.stance to take on the Scottish membership of the European Union
:24:53. > :24:57.because it is important that Scotland is already part of the
:24:58. > :25:02.European Union, our laws are compatible with the European Union
:25:03. > :25:07.and we play our part. The only threat to Scotland's participation
:25:08. > :25:17.in the European Union is the potential in/out referendum that
:25:18. > :25:22.David Cameron wants to have in 017. It has not been a great week for
:25:23. > :25:28.you, has it? Everything you seem to want, the monetary union, that has
:25:29. > :25:32.been blown out of the water by the Westminster parties, now Jose Manuel
:25:33. > :25:39.Barroso has said you will have to reapply to the European Union, it
:25:40. > :25:45.has not been a good week. You will follow the debate closely, and the
:25:46. > :25:49.Sunday newspapers are full about the backlash taking place within
:25:50. > :25:58.Scotland at the bullying remarks of the Chancellor and his cohorts. Is
:25:59. > :26:01.Jose Manuel Barroso a bully is well now? He is making an indirect
:26:02. > :26:09.comparison between Scotland and Kosovo. If you vote for independence
:26:10. > :26:15.and you do have two apply again to join, if you do get in it solves
:26:16. > :26:21.your currency problem because you will have to accept the euro. We
:26:22. > :26:29.have set out an option on the currency arrangements which would be
:26:30. > :26:36.to establish the currency union You would have to adopt the euro. That's
:26:37. > :26:40.not rate because you have to be part of the exchange-rate mechanism for
:26:41. > :26:43.two years before you can apply for membership and an independent
:26:44. > :26:49.Scotland has no intention of signing up to the exchange rate mechanism or
:26:50. > :26:53.the single currency. We are concentrating on setting out our
:26:54. > :27:00.arguments for maintaining the pound sterling, which is in the interests
:27:01. > :27:05.of Scotland and the UK. Thank you for joining us this morning.
:27:06. > :27:09.This week's least surprising news was that Labour won the safe seat of
:27:10. > :27:12.Wythenshawe and Sale East in a by-election, following the death of
:27:13. > :27:15.the MP Paul Goggins. With the result so predictable, all eyes were on
:27:16. > :27:18.whether this would be the sixth time this parliament that UKIP would come
:27:19. > :27:21.second. And whether they'd chip away at Labour's vote, not just the
:27:22. > :27:32.Tories and the Lib Dems. Adam stayed up all night to find out what it all
:27:33. > :27:42.meant. Forget the hype. Forget the theorising. And yes - everyone has a
:27:43. > :27:49.theory. UKIP are learning from us. What have they picked up from you?
:27:50. > :27:52.To be silly. Thanks to this week's by-election we've got some hard
:27:53. > :27:55.evidence in paper form that helps answer the question: How are UKIP
:27:56. > :28:05.doing? Turns out the answer is well, but not well enough to beat Labour.
:28:06. > :28:11.I'm therefore claim -- declare that Mike Cane is elected. So UKIP have
:28:12. > :28:14.come second and increased their share of the vote quite
:28:15. > :28:17.significantly. But their performance isn't as good as their performances
:28:18. > :28:20.in some of the other by-elections this parliament. Just don't suggest
:28:21. > :28:30.to them that their bandwagon has ground to a halt. A week ago you'd
:28:31. > :28:39.told me you were going to win, what happened? No, I didn't, I said I
:28:40. > :28:44.wanted to win. My mistake. How are you feeling? It is a Labour
:28:45. > :28:51.stronghold, we always knew it was going to be a fight. Labour were
:28:52. > :28:54.running scared of letting us present our arguments. UKIP's campaign in
:28:55. > :28:58.Wythenshawe didn't point to the right but to the left, with leaflets
:28:59. > :29:01.that branded Labour as a party of millionaires who didn't care about
:29:02. > :29:04.the working class. It wasn't a winning strategy but it did help
:29:05. > :29:09.them beat the Tories who focused on dog mess and potholes instead.
:29:10. > :29:15.Professional UKIP-watcher Rob Ford from Manchester Uni thinks they
:29:16. > :29:18.could be on the right track. He s analysed the views of 5,000 UKIP
:29:19. > :29:30.voters for a new book, which could confound the received wisdom about
:29:31. > :29:37.the party. The common media image of the typical UKIP voter is a ruddy
:29:38. > :29:42.faced golf club and -- member from the south-east of the UK and many
:29:43. > :29:47.UKIP activists do resemble that stereotype to some extent, they do
:29:48. > :29:52.pick up a lot of activists from the Conservative party, but UKIP voters
:29:53. > :29:57.are older, more working class, more likely to live in Northern, urban
:29:58. > :30:01.areas, and they are much more anti-system than anti-EU. And
:30:02. > :30:04.they're precisely the voters that the Tory MP David Mowat needs if
:30:05. > :30:18.he's to hold on to his narrow majority in the constituency just
:30:19. > :30:21.down the road. Do you have a UKIP strategy in your seat? Our UKIP
:30:22. > :30:24.strategy is to point out that if they want a referendum on if they
:30:25. > :30:28.want to be in the EU or not, there is one way to get it, for the
:30:29. > :30:33.Conservatives to form their next government and for me to be their
:30:34. > :30:40.MP. UKIP could accidentally destroy what they want? I'm not sure it will
:30:41. > :30:43.be accidental. People need to realise that if Ed Miliband is the
:30:44. > :30:48.Prime Minister, there will be no referendum on the EU and UKIP may
:30:49. > :30:56.have made their point but they would not have got their referendum. Over
:30:57. > :31:04.at UKIP local HQ, it is tidying up time. Not helping, Nigel? I had
:31:05. > :31:07.major surgery on the 19th of November and I am still weak as a
:31:08. > :31:12.kitten. I can barely lift a pint with my right hand, it is as serious
:31:13. > :31:16.as that. The answer is, Carreon chaps, you're all doing a very good
:31:17. > :31:20.job. There will be carrying on to the European elections in May, which
:31:21. > :31:26.will provide more evidence of if the UKIP and wagon is powering on or if
:31:27. > :31:31.it is just parked. -- bandwagon With me now is the Conservative MEP
:31:32. > :31:35.Vicky fraud and UKIP director of medication is Patrick O'Flynn. He
:31:36. > :31:38.will also be a candidate in the upcoming European elections. You
:31:39. > :31:45.came second in Manchester, but it was not a close second. -- Vicky
:31:46. > :31:50.Ford. There is nothing that is a game changer? I think it is very
:31:51. > :31:54.unusual for any insurgent party like the liberals used to be, to
:31:55. > :32:05.actually win a safe seat of the opposition. Those shocks, going back
:32:06. > :32:10.to Walkington etc, it tended to be winning seats against an unpopular
:32:11. > :32:13.government. We did extraordinarily well in Wythenshawe. Labour
:32:14. > :32:17.compressed the campaign down to the shortest possible time and maxed out
:32:18. > :32:21.the postal vote. Whatever we think about Labour, they do have an
:32:22. > :32:27.efficient machine, lots of union activists signed a lot of people
:32:28. > :32:31.with a lot of know-how. It pushed you into third place and showed the
:32:32. > :32:35.increasing irrelevance of the Tories in the North? Tory minded voters in
:32:36. > :32:39.the North Sea more inclined to vote for UKIP than you? I think
:32:40. > :32:44.by-elections are by-elections. The same day, we took a seat from Labour
:32:45. > :32:49.in Birmingham. Well, that was a by-election as well, so we should
:32:50. > :32:54.discount that as well. You should learn from them, and we need to look
:32:55. > :32:57.forward to the elections in 201 . That is in May this year, when we
:32:58. > :33:05.have a chance to really grab this change in Europe, grab this change
:33:06. > :33:09.that we were talking about just now. You don't worry, particularly in the
:33:10. > :33:14.north, if people want to vote against Labour your supporters are
:33:15. > :33:17.drifting to UKIP? I think people vote UKIP in a European election and
:33:18. > :33:22.they have done that for many years. They vote that because they want
:33:23. > :33:26.change. The problem is, Patrick s party have had MEPs since 1999 and
:33:27. > :33:31.they cannot deliver that change They can't because they don't have
:33:32. > :33:36.seats in Westminster. It was on that video, the only way we are going to
:33:37. > :33:40.get the change we want in Europe is to have that referendum and have the
:33:41. > :33:49.renegotiation, and that means vote Tory. What do you say to that? Let's
:33:50. > :33:54.get real, the Conservative Party has not won a Parliamentary majority in
:33:55. > :33:58.22 years. But the only way you will get a referendum, if that is what
:33:59. > :34:02.motivates you, and with UKIP it is, the only way it will be a referendum
:34:03. > :34:05.on Europe in this country as if there is a majority Conservative
:34:06. > :34:10.government at the next election And you could well stop that from
:34:11. > :34:14.happening? I don't accept that. I believe, just as we forced David
:34:15. > :34:17.Cameron and into a referendum pledge he explicitly ruled out making
:34:18. > :34:21.before through our success, and I was there in PMQs, when his MPs
:34:22. > :34:25.asked him and he said it would not be in the national interest because
:34:26. > :34:29.he didn't want to leave, our electoral success forced that
:34:30. > :34:31.pledge. I believe by winning the European action this May we can
:34:32. > :34:36.force Ed Miliband, again, against his will, to match that pledge.
:34:37. > :34:43.Then, whatever formulation varies in the next Parliament, we will get a
:34:44. > :34:46.referendum. Labour MPs have just had the chance to say we want a
:34:47. > :34:52.referendum. They refused to do it. The only way you are going to get a
:34:53. > :34:55.renegotiation, a change in our relationship with Europe and an in
:34:56. > :34:58.or out referendum is to have a Conservative Government. Please
:34:59. > :35:05.UKIP, stop pretending that you can deliver, because you don't deliver
:35:06. > :35:08.and you don't... We have delivered, we forced David Cameron to give a
:35:09. > :35:14.pledge for a referendum he didn t want to make. We will know if you
:35:15. > :35:18.are right about Ed Miliband or not, you will have to tell us going into
:35:19. > :35:23.the campaign. If you are wrong, what do you do then? There are still
:35:24. > :35:27.loads of reasons for people to vote UKIP. A referendum is one thing
:35:28. > :35:33.David Cameron, and I asked him directly, thermally wants to stay
:35:34. > :35:39.in. He wants to be the Edward Heath of the 21st century. The Tories are
:35:40. > :35:44.going to say, vote UKIP, get Ed Miliband. What would you say to
:35:45. > :35:47.that? I would say we have probably maxed out the Tory vote we are going
:35:48. > :35:51.to get because David Cameron has been incredibly helpful in sending
:35:52. > :35:57.them in our direction. Our potential for growth now, would we are
:35:58. > :36:01.concentrating on, his those disenchanted former Labour voters
:36:02. > :36:07.and more and more of them are coming towards us on things like
:36:08. > :36:11.immigration and law and order. We want to renegotiate our relationship
:36:12. > :36:13.with Europe. We need to have people who are going to turn up to
:36:14. > :36:17.negotiate with people like Barroso. That meant a Prime Minister that is
:36:18. > :36:28.not Ed Miliband but David Cameron. UKIP MEPs do not turn up to
:36:29. > :36:32.defenders. If President Hollande is as good as his word and says there
:36:33. > :36:36.will be no substantial renegotiation, certainly no treaty
:36:37. > :36:42.change this side of 2017 when he is up for the election, what do you do
:36:43. > :36:47.then? He is a French Socialist Prime Minister, I don't expect him to
:36:48. > :36:55.agree. But you can't bring anything of substance back with these
:36:56. > :37:01.negotiations. Then people will vote to leave. The Prime Minister has
:37:02. > :37:05.been very clear that British public opinion is on a knife edge and
:37:06. > :37:10.unless we get what we want from a renegotiation, we will leave. You
:37:11. > :37:15.would vote to leave? Let's see what we get with the deal on the table in
:37:16. > :37:19.2017. If the status quo was what we have today, I would vote to leave.
:37:20. > :37:25.But I want to renegotiate. We will have to move on. For those viewers
:37:26. > :37:28.lucky enough to live in the East of England, they will be seeing more of
:37:29. > :37:33.Patrick in a moment. You are watching Sunday Politics. Coming up
:37:34. > :37:37.in just over 20 minutes, I will be talking about, what else, the
:37:38. > :37:38.weather, with our political panel. Until then, the Sunday Politics
:37:39. > :37:52.across the UK. Hello, welcome from us. Coming up in
:37:53. > :37:56.a moment, it has been the week where the mayor set out his budget for
:37:57. > :38:00.next year. We look at his decisions and his priorities with the help of
:38:01. > :38:05.his chief of staff. I am joined by my guest for the next 20 minutes or
:38:06. > :38:11.so, Sir Richard Ottaway, MP for Croydon South, and Gareth Thomas,
:38:12. > :38:14.so, Sir Richard Ottaway, MP for for Harrow West. Can we start with a
:38:15. > :38:23.quick word on the troops strike that did not happen. Who blinked first?
:38:24. > :38:27.-- Tube. I think it was an outbreak of common sense, both sides
:38:28. > :38:27.-- Tube. I think it was an outbreak recognised it was in the interest 's
:38:28. > :38:31.of every Londoner to try and get a recognised it was in the interest 's
:38:32. > :38:34.compromise and solution to the issue. I hope that negotiations will
:38:35. > :38:41.continue in that way over the coming months. Pretty pointless having a
:38:42. > :38:43.strike to achieve that, really. You will condemn the RMT for that? We
:38:44. > :38:47.certainly didn't want the strike to take place. Equally, given the
:38:48. > :38:50.certainly didn't want the strike to concern about job losses and the
:38:51. > :38:53.potential impact on safety, we wanted Boris to sit down and talk
:38:54. > :39:00.through the issues with the employees. Eventually, he agreed to
:39:01. > :39:03.do that. He eventually agreed to do that? Common sense broke down, the
:39:04. > :39:09.Mayor blinked first, offered to sit down and caved in? London is the
:39:10. > :39:14.commercial centre of the Western world, a global city, a 24-7 city
:39:15. > :39:18.and it made no sense whatsoever trying to bring it to a halt through
:39:19. > :39:23.strike action. It doesn't that who blinked first or what. The important
:39:24. > :39:29.thing is that they sat down, there isn't a strike, and these ticket
:39:30. > :39:34.office closures are going ahead It is all going to be based on
:39:35. > :39:37.voluntary redundancies. In fact there are more volunteers for
:39:38. > :39:40.voluntary redundancies than there are redundancies available. No one
:39:41. > :39:44.is going to be out of a job that doesn't want to be. As Gareth says,
:39:45. > :39:53.round. But the mayor blinked first? round. But the mayor blinked first?
:39:54. > :39:57.Does it matter who blinked? The important point is that they are not
:39:58. > :40:01.striking, the ticket offices are going to close in a sensible, phased
:40:02. > :40:08.way. Hopefully the extra investment will be there for 24-7 Tube
:40:09. > :40:11.services. The total chapel of who blinked first is utterly irrelevant.
:40:12. > :40:16.Let's move on. It's been the week where the mayor set his budget, the
:40:17. > :40:20.next budget. His sixth budget, in fact. He claimed it was an
:40:21. > :40:25.affordable budget and it was one that was going to help hard-working
:40:26. > :40:29.Londoners. His opponents, labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens,
:40:30. > :40:33.combined to oppose it and propose more investment in things like
:40:34. > :40:36.housing, cycling and young people. Their plans failed to get enough
:40:37. > :40:40.votes in the London assembly. All the while, London borrowing is
:40:41. > :40:44.growing. It is the time of year when Boris
:40:45. > :40:47.Johnson gets out his cheque-book and Londoners find out how he intends to
:40:48. > :40:52.spend on each of the public services he funds. The message you are likely
:40:53. > :40:59.to walk away with is this. I am again presenting a budget which puts
:41:00. > :41:12.City Hall's share of council tax by 1.3%. Cue ovation. But he's actually
:41:13. > :41:16.spending more money, ?1 billion more this year than he did last. Every
:41:17. > :41:20.year that Boris Johnson has been mayor, spending has gone up, from
:41:21. > :41:24.?13.5 billion a year when he took over from Ken Livingstone to nearly
:41:25. > :41:28.?17 billion this year. In part, it has been paid for by a huge increase
:41:29. > :41:38.in borrowing. City Hall debt has gone up from 3.5 billion to nearly
:41:39. > :41:42.?12 billion in this budget. That GLA group have substantial debts,
:41:43. > :41:48.possibly 50% of the budget or more. That is the kind of level of debt
:41:49. > :41:53.that the UK national government has got, but in fairness it is mainly to
:41:54. > :41:57.fund transport infrastructure for the city as it grows. But it does
:41:58. > :42:02.carry with it the question of paying back on this debt, particularly of
:42:03. > :42:05.interest rate rises in future. But other debt is spent on things like
:42:06. > :42:11.this, the Crossrail site on Tottenham Court Road. When it is
:42:12. > :42:16.finished, it will add 10% capacity to London's transport system. The
:42:17. > :42:19.mayor's argument is this. London's population is growing and is
:42:20. > :42:22.expected to increase by 1 billion people in the next decade. To stop
:42:23. > :42:28.it grinding to a halt, we need not just Crossrail, upgrades to the
:42:29. > :42:32.Tube, investment in cycling and investment in roads. However, major
:42:33. > :42:35.credit ratings agencies have expressed concern about what they
:42:36. > :42:40.call high levels of debt owed by transport for London and City Hall.
:42:41. > :42:43.TfL's credit rating was actually downgraded this year. Some are
:42:44. > :42:47.beginning to question how sustainable it is. Whoever is mayor
:42:48. > :42:56.into Macri is time will end up paying the indebtedness that Boris
:42:57. > :43:03.Johnson has built up. It is unlikely that the GLA group can go on
:43:04. > :43:08.building up debt at this rate much longer. It begs the question of how
:43:09. > :43:12.the city can finance itself and the infrastructure needs. It is down to
:43:13. > :43:16.the Treasury and is in to the Treasury and this only having done
:43:17. > :43:20.so. For the mayor's position on the London assembly, there is more
:43:21. > :43:24.concerned for what they say is a lack of social housing than there is
:43:25. > :43:30.for spiralling debt. He could borrow his affordable housing in London by
:43:31. > :43:35.borrowing at sustainable interest rates against his revenue stream. It
:43:36. > :43:38.is possible to do that and it is the only way we will tackle the housing
:43:39. > :43:43.crisis we have an affordable housing in London. Transport investment is
:43:44. > :43:48.welcome and improvements in the tube are continuing. Crossrail will open.
:43:49. > :43:52.All of these things took place under a Labour Government, of course. That
:43:53. > :43:55.only goes so far. Housing prices in London is pricing people out of the
:43:56. > :43:59.city and making it impossible for young people to get a home to
:44:00. > :44:02.starting and causing massive problems for the economy. The
:44:03. > :44:05.mayor's budget passed through the London assembly last Friday. During
:44:06. > :44:10.the debate he defended his spending on housing. Will have 1.2 million
:44:11. > :44:14.going into affordable housing, I think it is a good settlement from
:44:15. > :44:20.the government. I have to look at all of the priorities. This budget
:44:21. > :44:24.is very well balanced. Boris Johnson described the housing situation as a
:44:25. > :44:27.crisis. According to critics, he is yet to put his money where his mouth
:44:28. > :44:32.is. I am joined by the mayor's chief of
:44:33. > :44:35.staff, Sir Eddie Lister. Before we get onto the details of the budget,
:44:36. > :44:40.you have heard, talking a little bit earlier, about the fact that the
:44:41. > :44:45.strike was off. Suggestions that the Mayor blinked first, caved in to the
:44:46. > :44:50.strikers. What would you say to that? I would say absolute rubbish.
:44:51. > :44:53.It is very simple. There was a proposal put forward by transport
:44:54. > :44:59.for London to go and do away with the ticket offices, but to retain,
:45:00. > :45:04.certain Gateway stations, tourist or travel advice centres. Now, at the
:45:05. > :45:08.end of this strike, what are we doing? We are having a discussion
:45:09. > :45:12.about the Gateway stations and about how large, how many of them should
:45:13. > :45:16.there be. And we have always been open to that the Bush years. Quite
:45:17. > :45:22.frankly, it was a pointless strike. They had to strike? To get you to
:45:23. > :45:25.discuss those stations? You conceded there would be a longer
:45:26. > :45:30.consultation, so you were rushing through this without enough
:45:31. > :45:42.consultation with them. They went on strike, and you offered them all. --
:45:43. > :45:44.more. We have now closed the opportunities for voluntary
:45:45. > :45:49.redundancy because we have more than enough people who have accepted
:45:50. > :45:53.voluntary redundancy so we are moving ahead on this. There is some
:45:54. > :45:58.discussion about the gateway stations but generally speaking
:45:59. > :46:04.there will be no ticket offices Let's move on to the bigger picture.
:46:05. > :46:11.Transport is obviously one of the reasons for it. A level of
:46:12. > :46:18.indebtedness, should we be concerned? No, it is important to
:46:19. > :46:23.recognise, if I can call this good debt, it is all going into
:46:24. > :46:28.infrastructure. It is for Crossrail, which is adding 10%, it is another
:46:29. > :46:35.billion pounds going into the Northern line extension, it is money
:46:36. > :46:41.for housing, money for the Olympic Park and I can go on like this. It
:46:42. > :46:48.is all about infrastructure. The interest on which will be paid for
:46:49. > :46:55.by future Londoners. They are playing an increasing amount now in
:46:56. > :47:00.fact. It is not all being met out of the taxpayers' funding. Some of it
:47:01. > :47:08.is coming from levies, some coming from the sale of land. Don't forget
:47:09. > :47:13.we are quite a big landowner, selling an land, so a lot of this
:47:14. > :47:17.will be about paying back debt. The mayor also said about his budget
:47:18. > :47:22.that it was to increase the quality of life and you are being attacked
:47:23. > :47:26.particularly by the opposition for a failure over housing, as they put
:47:27. > :47:34.it. Let's start a discussion of housing, finding out from you
:47:35. > :47:40.whether you are happy when 65-7 % of new apartments, flats, homes in
:47:41. > :47:46.prime locations are being bought by foreign investors. I don't accept
:47:47. > :47:52.that number. They market most of these properties and they say it is
:47:53. > :47:59.around that. Around 80% of housing in London is bought by Londoners, or
:48:00. > :48:07.by residents and it is about 20 that gets sold. You are talking
:48:08. > :48:12.about across London, I was specific about prime locations, this area
:48:13. > :48:18.very close to the Thames. Those sites are being bought by foreign
:48:19. > :48:23.investors and being left empty. I dispute that many of them are being
:48:24. > :48:30.left empty. The number of properties being bought by foreigners... And
:48:31. > :48:33.don't forget the definition of foreigners includes the Republic of
:48:34. > :48:39.Ireland so be careful about your definitions, but of those about 6.5%
:48:40. > :48:44.are being bought by foreigners and they are not standing empty. They
:48:45. > :48:56.are largely going into the right to rent market -- buy to rent.
:48:57. > :49:00.Secondly, if we didn't have those foreign investors, a lot of those
:49:01. > :49:05.schemes wouldn't have happened. After the crash, the money we had
:49:06. > :49:10.for construction dropped away. The only money we had was overseas money
:49:11. > :49:18.and the whole construction industry would have ground to a halt without
:49:19. > :49:23.it. For every 100 million of sales, about 25 million of that feeds
:49:24. > :49:28.through to affordable housing. What about this very big budget overall,
:49:29. > :49:33.when you take into account transport and the Olympic land and housing and
:49:34. > :49:38.so on, what about the investment in the economy now, replacing the work
:49:39. > :49:44.that used to be done by the London development agency and so on. Do you
:49:45. > :49:50.accept you're not making much headway in terms of London's
:49:51. > :49:54.economy? I think it has changed since the days of the London
:49:55. > :49:58.development agency and the mayor was very critical about that agency
:49:59. > :50:07.saying he felt it didn't produce the kind of results it should have done
:50:08. > :50:12.in times of plenty. We then moved into the time of having less
:50:13. > :50:23.resources and money has been very well spent. Let's talk about the
:50:24. > :50:28.London enterprise fund, how much have you spent of that? A relatively
:50:29. > :50:34.small amount will be spent because it is all in capital
:50:35. > :50:39.infrastructure. Why do they take so long? Buildings take time to build,
:50:40. > :50:45.projects take time to get off the ground. All of that money is
:50:46. > :50:52.committed, it will go out as payments on those buildings. Is it
:50:53. > :51:04.right that about two thirds of it is going into transport projects? It is
:51:05. > :51:09.to fill a gap in TfL's budget? There is a reason in London why we have
:51:10. > :51:13.vast tracks of London that have missed every development opportunity
:51:14. > :51:16.that has come along for the last 20 years, there is always an
:51:17. > :51:26.infrastructure problem. The mayor has been putting money into
:51:27. > :51:33.infrastructure to open those areas up. I think it is time to bring in
:51:34. > :51:38.the other two here, Gareth Thomas, the mayor is making the right kind
:51:39. > :51:43.of priorities? We are worried the mayor doesn't seem to have grasped
:51:44. > :51:48.there is a cost of living crisis for many Londoners. We have had six
:51:49. > :51:59.years of rising Tube fares under this mayor. Nobody is quite sure
:52:00. > :52:08.what the London economic panel doors, Eddie Lister can sit here and
:52:09. > :52:12.say there it -- is a lot of investment in transport projects,
:52:13. > :52:19.but banks are still not lending to small businesses and it could have
:52:20. > :52:23.been supporting them. We have no serious initiatives to help
:52:24. > :52:30.apprenticeships and young people so this is a disappointing budget. What
:52:31. > :52:34.do you say, Richard? The short answer is that there is funding for
:52:35. > :52:39.quarter of a million apprenticeships in the budget, there is a Council
:52:40. > :52:43.tax cut, all of these are addressing the cost of living issue. The
:52:44. > :52:49.Government has a long-term economic plan and the mayor has announced
:52:50. > :52:54.something that dovetails with that. It is not a quick fix, it is a
:52:55. > :53:03.long-term plan which will promote prosperity and the economy inside
:53:04. > :53:08.London. My constituents are struggling now and so are yours
:53:09. > :53:12.They will have to pay an extra 120 per year to commute into central
:53:13. > :53:23.London. But they are more likely to have a job and a Council tax cut.
:53:24. > :53:28.What about the cost of fares? Yes, but look at the expansion of the
:53:29. > :53:32.network, increasing by 30% the capacity, and we have got to have
:53:33. > :53:36.that money and we have got to be able to expand the network. If we
:53:37. > :53:54.don't get the network sorted out, you won't be able to get into London
:53:55. > :54:00.to those jobs. There is a fund of ?25 million announced a year ago,
:54:01. > :54:10.where is that? It is in the setup phase. This is becoming a problem, a
:54:11. > :54:13.lot of time spent setting up. Construction businesses are one of
:54:14. > :54:18.the key areas for the mayor which is why he has spent so much on
:54:19. > :54:23.resources for construction because that then feeds through to the rest
:54:24. > :54:28.of the economy. Yes, there are a lot of businesses in London but we are
:54:29. > :54:35.supporting a lot of them. We have run out of time, we must leave it
:54:36. > :54:40.there. Thank you very much indeed. It has been a week dominated by
:54:41. > :54:45.water, hundreds of people forced to leave their homes, misery for many
:54:46. > :54:49.thousands more along the Thames Parts of London were under water
:54:50. > :54:53.this week as extreme weather continued with the Met Office
:54:54. > :54:58.warning there is more to come. According to the London assembly, a
:54:59. > :55:03.significant number of homes are at risk of flood damage in the long
:55:04. > :55:10.term. Croydon has been particularly badly hit this week, with water
:55:11. > :55:16.being diverted into a car park and a playing field to avoid flooding
:55:17. > :55:21.They Environment Agency has just 5000 homes in the area to be at
:55:22. > :55:26.risk. Has enough been done to prepare for the flooding? We need to
:55:27. > :55:35.be getting more trees planted, more of our surfaces that are covered in
:55:36. > :55:42.concrete with natural greenery on them to absorb the water. The fight
:55:43. > :55:48.against the flooding continues, holding back the water and clearing
:55:49. > :55:54.up. Anyone who have to face this problem, whatever the party, it
:55:55. > :56:00.would have been a hard one, wouldn't it? Yes, but you could have expected
:56:01. > :56:03.there to be better planning and coordination between the Environment
:56:04. > :56:08.Agency on the one hand, local councils on the other, and military
:56:09. > :56:13.and central government and it has been a story of confusion, often
:56:14. > :56:16.poor planning, many people having to struggle on their own and deal with
:56:17. > :56:27.the consequences of flooding on their own. Are you worried about
:56:28. > :56:32.that, Richard Ottaway? I know you are an honest individual, you cannot
:56:33. > :56:39.say this has been well handled. I have spent a lot of time down in
:56:40. > :56:44.Purley looking at how Croydon Council is dealing with this and you
:56:45. > :56:49.have to take your hat off to people who are dealing with this. There
:56:50. > :56:53.were people sleeping in their cars, I asked them why and they said
:56:54. > :57:01.because they have been there for three days. The emergency services
:57:02. > :57:07.have prevented something like 1 00 houses... It is a lovely story of
:57:08. > :57:10.local heroism in many places, are you worried that confusing messages
:57:11. > :57:16.have been sent about how the Government have handled this? I
:57:17. > :57:21.disagree. The way in which the Government has responded, beginning
:57:22. > :57:25.to look at the medium-term aspects of getting people back on their
:57:26. > :57:30.feet, and already looking at the resilience issues for the long term,
:57:31. > :57:35.and I think that is the right approach. The Government has made a
:57:36. > :57:46.very positive response. It's time for the rest of the political news
:57:47. > :57:50.in 60 seconds. Documents published by the aviation
:57:51. > :57:53.commission show the full extent of the Government 's plans to increase
:57:54. > :58:00.night flights into Heathrow. The number of planes allowed to land at
:58:01. > :58:05.the airport before 6am will increase from 16 to 35 next year. George
:58:06. > :58:11.Clooney has called for the Elgin marbles removed from the park then
:58:12. > :58:15.on to be returned to Greece. There are certain pieces you would look at
:58:16. > :58:21.and say that is the right thing to do. Average weekly rents in the
:58:22. > :58:26.private sector amount to more than 50% of average local wages in 1
:58:27. > :58:31.London boroughs. Thousands of former offenders in the capital including
:58:32. > :58:34.burglars and thieves will no longer have to declare their criminal
:58:35. > :58:40.convictions in a move intended to boost their job prospects.
:58:41. > :58:44.Bermondsey MP Simon Hughes said the change would be a vital support for
:58:45. > :58:56.people who want to turn their back on crime and rebuild their lives.
:58:57. > :59:00.Richard, do you have worries here that employers will not know and
:59:01. > :59:05.have a right to know the past of certain criminals? One of the
:59:06. > :59:11.biggest problems of getting people back to work is a criminal record,
:59:12. > :59:15.and if somebody has a minor offence, I think that by taking this off the
:59:16. > :59:22.record and mentoring them and making sure they have the right skills we
:59:23. > :59:26.are more likely to get effective rehabilitation if an employer were
:59:27. > :59:33.to take them on without knowing of a criminal record. Giving people a
:59:34. > :59:37.second chance. I think it is a sensible change. There is
:59:38. > :59:40.discretion, where the employment is sensitive employment, the person
:59:41. > :59:45.will still have to make clear they have had a conviction in those
:59:46. > :59:51.cases, but where it is not a particularly sensitive posts it
:59:52. > :59:54.seems it is right to give people a second chance. In half of London
:59:55. > :00:02.boroughs, people are spending half of their income on housing. What
:00:03. > :00:06.about that? It is a challenge facing many Londoners and we have worries
:00:07. > :00:15.that the mayor is not building enough houses. Rent is falling but
:00:16. > :00:20.it is a long-term problem. In real terms rent is now falling in central
:00:21. > :00:25.London and outer London, but when I first arrived in London in the
:00:26. > :00:30.1970s, I paid 60% of my salary on rent so this is not a short-term
:00:31. > :00:41.issue. You really don't think this is something heading in the wrong
:00:42. > :00:49.direction? No, in real terms now the rent is falling in London. Andrew,
:00:50. > :00:52.back to you. Welcome back. Let's start by talking
:00:53. > :00:56.about the weather. What could be more British? It has been
:00:57. > :00:59.practically the only topic of conversation for the past few
:01:00. > :01:03.weeks. This morning, Ed Miliband has made the direct link, declaims,
:01:04. > :01:10.between this exceptionally wet and windy weather and climate change.
:01:11. > :01:15.That's an interesting development, taking place. Ed Miliband is the
:01:16. > :01:24.author of the 2008 Climate Change Act, so he has to stick to that line
:01:25. > :01:29.or his life 's work goes up in smoke. When he passed it, there was
:01:30. > :01:33.Westminster consensus. Now the Tories are beginning to appeal off.
:01:34. > :01:39.UKIP has definitely peeled off. Labour and Lib Dems are sticking to
:01:40. > :01:43.their guns, there is now a debate? It has moved from consensus to very
:01:44. > :01:46.fragile consensus. It's an interesting tactic for Ed Miliband
:01:47. > :01:50.to take. He could either approach the floods talking about government
:01:51. > :01:53.failures and handling, instead he has gone for the intellectual
:01:54. > :01:57.argument, try and turn this into a debate about ideology and climate
:01:58. > :02:02.change. I think he will find that quite difficult. Partly, I don't
:02:03. > :02:06.think the public I get listening to an argument like that. Partly
:02:07. > :02:10.because only one in three of the public totally agree with him. The
:02:11. > :02:14.polls for The Times think that about one in three think that man-made I'm
:02:15. > :02:19.a change is responsible for these floods, the rest do not. I'm not
:02:20. > :02:23.sure that the interventions will be particularly well picked up. It puts
:02:24. > :02:27.David Cameron in a difficult position. He was hugging those
:02:28. > :02:33.huskies, it was going to be the greenest Government ever, and now he
:02:34. > :02:37.has an Environment secretary that doesn't really believe in climate
:02:38. > :02:42.change. Well, we don't know where he stands. That is not where he was in
:02:43. > :02:46.2010. It has always been sold to us that he is statesman-like and
:02:47. > :02:49.pragmatic, but that drifts into he doesn't really believe anything
:02:50. > :02:54.This is a worldwide phenomenon now. You've got the Canadian government,
:02:55. > :02:58.they are pretty sceptical these days. The new Australian government
:02:59. > :03:01.is pretty sceptical. The Obama administration has been attacked by
:03:02. > :03:06.the green movement across the United States, he is probably about to
:03:07. > :03:17.approve the keystone pipeline that will take over the Texas refineries.
:03:18. > :03:21.What was a huge consensus across the globe is a guinea to break down
:03:22. > :03:25.Probably started to break down about the time of the financial crisis,
:03:26. > :03:29.the age of austerity, when suddenly people had more to worry about than
:03:30. > :03:32.green issues. Even at home it is a slightly risky tactic for Ed
:03:33. > :03:35.Miliband. The idea there is a scientific consensus on this, there
:03:36. > :03:42.isn't. You look at Professor Collins this morning, climate systems
:03:43. > :03:45.expert, saying, actually, the jet stream is not operating further
:03:46. > :03:49.south because of climate change Or if it is, it is beyond our
:03:50. > :03:55.knowledge. He flies in the face of what Ed Miliband as saying. He's
:03:56. > :03:59.saying the wet weather is caused by global warming, the head of science
:04:00. > :04:02.at Exeter University says the IPCC originally looked at whether climate
:04:03. > :04:07.change could affect what happens to the jet stream and, because it had
:04:08. > :04:13.no evidence it had any effect, it decided not to include it at all in
:04:14. > :04:16.the IPCC report. The problem we have got is that any individual
:04:17. > :04:21.phenomenon is difficult to attribute to climate change. But the Labour
:04:22. > :04:25.Leader just have? And The Met Office have done the same thing. It's a
:04:26. > :04:29.fragile in, but overall we can say we are getting more extreme weather
:04:30. > :04:32.than ever. The most extreme weather, hurricanes and tropical storm is,
:04:33. > :04:38.they have been in decline. Equally, we have had ten of the hottest
:04:39. > :04:44.summers in the last ten years since 1998. Overall, there is a case that
:04:45. > :04:49.can be made that we are getting more. Each individual thing is
:04:50. > :04:52.difficult to say. Until recently, almost everyone agreed with that
:04:53. > :04:57.case. Now the parties are reflecting differences. I wanted to move on,
:04:58. > :05:03.what did you make of two interesting things that happened with the
:05:04. > :05:09.interview with UKIP and the Tories, one Cory saying I am voting to come
:05:10. > :05:14.out, and the UKIP chap saying we are maxed out on Tory defectors, we
:05:15. > :05:16.can't get any more? I think that was a dangerous admission from Patrick
:05:17. > :05:22.O'Flynn from UKIP, essentially saying that their vote has peaked.
:05:23. > :05:26.Looking at the by-elections, I'm not sure that was a particularly wise
:05:27. > :05:32.reflection on that. They got 18 , 23% last year. The case he is making
:05:33. > :05:35.is that there are more votes to be gained by attracting former Labour
:05:36. > :05:40.voters than former Tories. I'm not sure that red UKIP, the bit of UKIP
:05:41. > :05:43.that tries to make benefit protection and some other kind of
:05:44. > :05:47.social issues at the heart really sits comfortably with their
:05:48. > :05:53.insurgent, anti-state message. I don't think it will do particularly
:05:54. > :05:56.well. This is why they are pushing the message, it is their response to
:05:57. > :06:01.the idea and suggestion of a Tory rallying cry that they vote for
:06:02. > :06:07.Nigel Farage, and it is really a vote for Ed Miliband. Patrick is a
:06:08. > :06:11.very good journalist, a very good commentator. He answered almost as a
:06:12. > :06:15.commentator rather than head of communications for a political
:06:16. > :06:22.party. The Government are still trying to rid itself of troublesome
:06:23. > :06:25.priests, an attack on welfare reforms from the Catholic Archbishop
:06:26. > :06:32.of Westminster. Let's have a look and see what he said. The basic
:06:33. > :06:37.safety net that was there to guarantee that people would not be
:06:38. > :06:42.left in hunger or in destitution has actually been torn apart. It no
:06:43. > :06:51.longer exists. And it is a real real, dramatic crisis. The second is
:06:52. > :06:54.that, in this context, the administration of social assistance,
:06:55. > :06:58.I am told, has become more and more punitive. If applicants do not get
:06:59. > :07:04.it right, they have to wait and they have to wait for ten days, two
:07:05. > :07:09.weeks, with nothing. Has the basic safety net disappeared? I don't see
:07:10. > :07:12.how it is possible to argue that. It is certainly the case that there
:07:13. > :07:15.have been reductions in various benefits, some benefits have been
:07:16. > :07:19.scrapped and there is a welfare reform programme. But this country
:07:20. > :07:28.is still spending ?94 billion a year on working age benefits. Excluding
:07:29. > :07:34.pensions? The idea that this equates to some sort of wiping out of the
:07:35. > :07:38.safety net is... He has gone on a full frontal assault on the Tory
:07:39. > :07:43.reforms, not the kind of attack that Labour would be prepared to make?
:07:44. > :07:50.No, they know that it doesn't play very well in the country. He's not
:07:51. > :07:53.up for election. Whether or not you agree about the safety net, I think
:07:54. > :07:58.the welfare reforms have been poorly managed and I don't think that is a
:07:59. > :08:02.full dispute. Universal credit, it is in some very long grass. It had
:08:03. > :08:05.some stupid ideas, like the idea that it would be paid monthly,
:08:06. > :08:09.instead of weekly, meaning that people are more likely to run out of
:08:10. > :08:12.money by the end of the month. It's interesting, in the past, when
:08:13. > :08:16.members of the cloth have attacked the government for welfare reforms,
:08:17. > :08:21.the Government have responded by trying to paint them as lefties
:08:22. > :08:27.ideological driven. I think that is hard in this case, an assault made
:08:28. > :08:29.deliberately in the Telegraph from somebody who feels they come from a
:08:30. > :08:33.centre-right position. I think there will be a bit of awkwardness about
:08:34. > :08:37.this intervention. It is not the kind of thing they wanted to see. Is
:08:38. > :08:42.it politically damaging for the Government? It is if it makes them
:08:43. > :08:46.look mean-spirited. But that is the problem with welfare reforms. You
:08:47. > :08:51.can say all sorts of things about Iain Duncan Smith's competence. But
:08:52. > :08:56.the whole thing springs from a moral mission, as he sees it, to liberate
:08:57. > :08:59.the poor and extend opportunity One of the worst moments for the Tories
:09:00. > :09:03.was blaming the low level of voting in Wythenshawe and sale in the fact
:09:04. > :09:07.that the constituency had, in the words of one senior Tory, the
:09:08. > :09:12.largest council estate in Europe inside its constituency boundary.
:09:13. > :09:17.The point being what? Because you live in a council estate you don't
:09:18. > :09:21.vote? That they don't see people living in council estate as one of
:09:22. > :09:24.them, not an impulse that Margaret Thatcher would have had. I think
:09:25. > :09:29.it's dangerous if they are painting is people as opponents rather than
:09:30. > :09:32.trying to win them over. When they do vote, they determine elections!
:09:33. > :09:40.The idea that there is no such thing as a working-class Tory is toxic. I
:09:41. > :09:46.want to show you a picture. There we go. It is behind me, on the 5th of
:09:47. > :09:54.February, it is all men. And then, on the next, look at that, the 2th,
:09:55. > :09:58.there are a few women. Not exactly many, but some. It is an
:09:59. > :10:02.improvement. But it is so transparent, isn't it? We phoned up
:10:03. > :10:07.one of the women that sat behind David Cameron to ask, why the sudden
:10:08. > :10:11.change? They said, I don't know why you are bothering to ask, it is
:10:12. > :10:16.completely natural, we didn't do anything to stage manage it. Did his
:10:17. > :10:19.nose gets longer? It is something that is very transparent and
:10:20. > :10:24.depressing about the way politicians choose to react to these moments.
:10:25. > :10:32.Every week they put two women behind David Cameron, so that a tight shot
:10:33. > :10:36.shows them. It is called the doughnut. They don't have many women
:10:37. > :10:41.to shuffle around, there are only four among 14 in the Shadow Cabinet.
:10:42. > :10:44.Also, the fact that women, younger women in particular, are much less
:10:45. > :10:51.likely to vote Tory than five or ten years ago. David Cameron, it drives
:10:52. > :10:57.and furious, he is obviously aware this is one of the biggest potential
:10:58. > :11:01.demographic problem is that they have. It also reminds us of how the
:11:02. > :11:04.public can actually see the wiring behind a lot of the stuff. Do they
:11:05. > :11:09.really think your blog so stupid that they will not notice that the
:11:10. > :11:13.following week the front bench is packed with women? I think it just
:11:14. > :11:18.increases contempt for the entire rocket. It is an issue where Labour
:11:19. > :11:23.seem to have pulled ahead of the other parties. We are being told
:11:24. > :11:29.that 50% of candidates in their 100 target seats will be female. It
:11:30. > :11:34.looks like the composition of Labour continues to go towards a kind of
:11:35. > :11:39.rough 50-50 split, eventually. Although that is true, I think the
:11:40. > :11:43.faces we see on the telly, Ed Miliband, Ed Balls, Chris Leslie,
:11:44. > :11:47.they are almost always men. There is a Rachel Reeves, a prominent female
:11:48. > :11:53.face that goes up a lot. But really, the number of e-mails they put up is
:11:54. > :12:00.proportionally a lot smaller. Is the Miliband team still a men's club?
:12:01. > :12:03.Behind the scenes, it is very blokey. It's been described as a
:12:04. > :12:09.kind of seminar room at a university. I think that is true.
:12:10. > :12:14.The Observer did the cutout and keep of the people behind Mr Miliband. As
:12:15. > :12:19.opposed to the Shadow Cabinet, with lots of women in it, it was very
:12:20. > :12:22.male. The one reason Labour have all of these women to put up in
:12:23. > :12:27.constituencies is all women short lists is. If Tories want to change
:12:28. > :12:39.things, I know they can be prone to minute -- and in relation, but they
:12:40. > :12:46.work. In ten years time, I think it will give Labour an immense
:12:47. > :12:52.advantage. By then, I think they will have a woman leader. Who will
:12:53. > :12:55.that be? Potentially somebody not even yet in the Commons. You can see
:12:56. > :13:04.how quickly people can rise to the top, but the Labour Party is going
:13:05. > :13:08.to be increasingly donated by women. Do you think there will be a Labour
:13:09. > :13:13.Leader before Theresa May becomes leader of the Conservatives? I think
:13:14. > :13:17.it is ultimately about Osborne trying to stop Boris. I think I
:13:18. > :13:25.would be astonished if she managed it. The first female Labour Leader?
:13:26. > :13:29.I would pick Rachel Reeves the way it is currently going, she knows her
:13:30. > :13:37.stuff and does well on TV. That is all for this week. We have a week
:13:38. > :13:42.off now. I'll be back in the week after next. Remember, if it is
:13:43. > :13:45.Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics, unless it's a Parliamentary recess.