:00:36. > :00:43.Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. The dust has barely
:00:44. > :00:46.settled on George Osborne's Budget and, amazingly, for once it hasn't
:00:47. > :00:49.all gone horribly wrong by the weekend. So, is this the election
:00:50. > :00:53.springboard the Tories needed, and where does it leave Labour? Turns
:00:54. > :00:57.out the big Budget surprise was a revolution in how we pay for old
:00:58. > :01:01.age. The Pensions Minister says he's relaxed if you want to spend it all
:01:02. > :01:07.on a Lamborghini. He'll join us later. And could the man with the
:01:08. > :01:10.maracas be on his way to Westminster? Bez from the Happy
:01:11. > :01:19.Mondays tells us about his unlikely plan to become an MP.
:01:20. > :01:26.In London, the Mafia man gets to stay in Axbridge. Are there ways of
:01:27. > :01:38.making the European arrest warrant work better? -- Uxbridge. And who
:01:39. > :01:41.better to help guide you through all of that than three journalists, who
:01:42. > :01:44.dispense wisdom faster than Grant Shapps calls out the numbers in his
:01:45. > :01:47.local bingo hall over a pint of beer. Yes, they're hard-working and
:01:48. > :01:53.they're doing the things they enjoy. Cup of tea, number three. It's Nick
:01:54. > :01:59.Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.
:02:00. > :02:04.So, George Osborne delivered his fifth Budget on Wednesday and had so
:02:05. > :02:07.many glowing front pages the day afterwards he must be running out of
:02:08. > :02:11.room to pin them up in on his bedroom wall. Although it's probably
:02:12. > :02:14.a pretty big wall. For those of you who didn't have time to watch 3 5
:02:15. > :02:16.hours of Budget coverage on the BBC, here's Giles with the whole thing in
:02:17. > :02:47.three minutes. Budget days have a rhythm of their
:02:48. > :02:50.own, driven partly by tradition like that photocall at 11 Downing
:02:51. > :02:53.Street and part logistics, how to get this important statement out and
:02:54. > :03:06.explain to those whom it affects - us? Behind-the-scenes of a Budget
:03:07. > :03:10.Day is much the same. This ritual red boxery may be the beginning of
:03:11. > :03:13.the end of weeks of work behind the scenes in the Treasury and sets the
:03:14. > :03:16.clock ticking on the process of finding out the answer to one
:03:17. > :03:19.question. You got any rabbits in the box, Chancellor? Yes, there will be
:03:20. > :03:22.something in the Budget we don't know about. Time marches steadily
:03:23. > :03:28.towards the statement and already commentators are hovering over what
:03:29. > :03:31.those potential surprises are. As Big Ben chimes, all focus returns to
:03:32. > :03:34.the Commons, where there is Prime Minister's questions and the
:03:35. > :03:40.Chancellor gets up and does his thing. Once he's on his feet and
:03:41. > :03:43.remembering there is still no copy of the details, the major measures
:03:44. > :03:47.are rapidly highlighted as they come and then put up on screen. A cap on
:03:48. > :03:54.Government welfare spending set for 2015/16 at 119 billion. Income tax
:03:55. > :04:00.personal allowance raised to ?10,500. Bingo duty halved, which
:04:01. > :04:05.ticked boxes for some but was unlikely to make anyone a poster
:04:06. > :04:08.boy. And the beer tax cut of 1p or the froth on the top. And changes to
:04:09. > :04:12.pensions allowing people to take their money out in one lump sum
:04:13. > :04:21.rather than being forced to accept a fixed annual pay-out, or annuity.
:04:22. > :04:24.This is a Budget for the makers the doers and the savers and I commend
:04:25. > :04:28.it to the House. Not everyone can focus on the Budget by listening to
:04:29. > :04:32.what the Chancellor says. We need to get a copy of the script. We do not
:04:33. > :04:39.get that till he sits down. I'm going to go into the House of
:04:40. > :04:43.Commons to get that right now. There will be a response on that and all
:04:44. > :04:46.the other things from Mr Miliband. The Chancellor spoke for nearly an
:04:47. > :04:49.hour but he did not mention one essential fact, the working people
:04:50. > :04:54.of Britain are worse off under the Tories. It is a tricky job answering
:04:55. > :04:57.the Budget at the best of times though some, including Labour MPs,
:04:58. > :05:00.think it is better to mention the Budget when you do.
:05:01. > :05:07.Here we are. I am going to go. I am not the only journalist missing Ed
:05:08. > :05:10.Miliband's speech. Many others leave the Chamber as the Chancellor sits
:05:11. > :05:18.down to attend a special briefing from the Chancellor's advisory team.
:05:19. > :05:21.I am hotfoot to the studio. There is a little more detail to the Budget
:05:22. > :05:25.than the Budget Speech. That detail can be whether words unravel and
:05:26. > :05:27.other interpretations emerge. By now the gaggle of supporters and
:05:28. > :05:37.detractors are taking the debate onto the airwaves. Are you the BBC?
:05:38. > :05:39.Have the Daily Politics packed up? No, we're still standing and, days
:05:40. > :05:42.later, still trying to assess whether the measures announced still
:05:43. > :05:44.seem fresh and appetising or have already gone stale in the minds of
:05:45. > :06:00.voters? How significant are these two poles
:06:01. > :06:09.this morning putting Labour and Tory nip and tuck? Osborne gave his party
:06:10. > :06:14.a good bounce. It was an astonishingly theatrical coup. At
:06:15. > :06:18.first glance, it seems like a huge gift to all people. That is where
:06:19. > :06:22.all of the money has been channelled by this government. They have been
:06:23. > :06:28.ultra-protected, triple locked. Pensioners have done very well and
:06:29. > :06:32.others less well. It is not surprising. Normally a budget which
:06:33. > :06:38.is well received on the day and the day after has unravelled by the
:06:39. > :06:43.weekend. This time, it has not, so far. The dangerous thing for the
:06:44. > :06:47.Labour Party now, George Osborne is the assessment this thing called the
:06:48. > :06:52.baseline. He says, in government, you must control the baseline. The
:06:53. > :06:57.Labour party controlled in 2001 and 2005 and he needs to control it next
:06:58. > :07:02.time. He is controlling it on fiscal policy because labour is matching
:07:03. > :07:06.them on everything. The danger for Labour on the big, headline grabbing
:07:07. > :07:10.issue, which was freeing up annuities on pensions, that again
:07:11. > :07:14.Labour was pretty much saying it was going to support it though it were
:07:15. > :07:19.saying it has to be fair and cost-effective. On a big, policy
:07:20. > :07:24.issue, they are following on behind George Osborne. George Osborne is
:07:25. > :07:33.controlling the crucial baseline. Are we in danger of reading too much
:07:34. > :07:37.into the political implications of the budget? The good thing about the
:07:38. > :07:42.pensions policy is, if it does unravel, it will not happen for ten
:07:43. > :07:47.years and, by that time, George Osborne will have left office.
:07:48. > :07:51.Towards the end of his speech, I thought, that is not enough. There
:07:52. > :07:56.is not an idea in your budget which is politically very vivid a year
:07:57. > :08:00.before an election. What I underestimated was, how many
:08:01. > :08:06.frustrated savers that are in the country. There are a lot of people
:08:07. > :08:11.who are frustrated by low interest rates and tax rates on pension pots.
:08:12. > :08:16.This was an explicit gesture for them. That is what has paid off in
:08:17. > :08:21.the polls in the past few days. You spend all of your money on your
:08:22. > :08:26.wardrobe, is that right? The bingo poster was a kind of get out of jail
:08:27. > :08:30.card for Labour. It gave them something to zoom in on. Everyone
:08:31. > :08:36.beat up on Grant Shapps, the Tory chairman. We read in the daily
:08:37. > :08:42.Telegraph that the fingerprints of the Chancellor were all over this
:08:43. > :08:50.poster. The Chancellor signed off it -- off on it and so did Lynton
:08:51. > :08:58.Crosby. They referred to working class people as, they are. How did
:08:59. > :09:02.it get into the Telegraph? We can only presume but grant Shapps made
:09:03. > :09:07.it clear that it was not him. We had a time when Labour politicians, we
:09:08. > :09:11.saw from the response of Ed Miliband onwards, they were not quite sure
:09:12. > :09:16.how to react to this budget. A lot of detail had to be absorbed.
:09:17. > :09:27.Suddenly, here is something we can talk about. You can see the thinking
:09:28. > :09:29.behind the poster was very sensible. We are not Tory toffs, we are
:09:30. > :09:32.interested in helping people who do not come from our backgrounds. The
:09:33. > :09:39.wording was awful and played into every cliche. It was all his fault.
:09:40. > :09:47.It shows how unsophisticated he was. There were people from Tory HQ
:09:48. > :09:58.who agreed the budget. A month down the line will the budget look as
:09:59. > :10:01.good? Probably. Once people look at it, pensions are fiendishly
:10:02. > :10:05.conjugated. Once they look and see what it will do with people having
:10:06. > :10:09.to pay for their own care because they can now take capital at their
:10:10. > :10:14.pension, that will come as a shock to a lot of people with small
:10:15. > :10:22.savings. It all be gone on their care. The polling will be neck and
:10:23. > :10:25.neck all the way. In the past, George Osborne has been accused of
:10:26. > :10:28.using his Budgets to tinker at the margins or pull cheap tricks on his
:10:29. > :10:31.political opponents. Perish the thought. But the big surprise in
:10:32. > :10:33.this year's statement was a genuinely radical shake-up of the
:10:34. > :10:45.pensions system that will affect most people who've yet to retire. At
:10:46. > :10:48.the moment, everyone is saving money into a defined contribution pension,
:10:49. > :10:54.that is the type most common in the private sector. They can take 2 % of
:10:55. > :10:59.the pot is a tax-free lump sum when they retire. The rest of the money,
:11:00. > :11:02.for most people, they are forced to buy an annuity, a form of insurance
:11:03. > :11:07.which provide a guaranteed monthly income until they die. Annuities
:11:08. > :11:15.have hardly been a bargain since interest rates were flat slashed
:11:16. > :11:21.following the financial crash. Even with a ?100,000 pension pot would
:11:22. > :11:24.only get an income of ?5,800 a year at current rates. From 2018,
:11:25. > :11:29.pensioners will not be forced to buy an annuity. They can do what they
:11:30. > :11:33.like with their money, even taking the entire pot as a lump some but
:11:34. > :11:45.paying tax on 75% of it. With an average pension pot closer
:11:46. > :11:53.to around ?30,000, pensioners would be more likely to buy a Skoda
:11:54. > :11:58.instead of a Lamborghini. Most newly retired people who take the cash are
:11:59. > :12:02.more likely to spend the money paying off their mortgage, helping a
:12:03. > :12:05.family member to buy a property or investing the money elsewhere. Well,
:12:06. > :12:08.earlier I spoke to the Pensions Minister. He's a Lib Dem called
:12:09. > :12:11.Steve Webb. I began by asking him if he still thought the reforms might
:12:12. > :12:19.lead to pensioners splurging all their savings on supercars. What
:12:20. > :12:23.this reform is about is treating people as adults. For far too long,
:12:24. > :12:26.we have said, we will make sure you save for your old age and then we
:12:27. > :12:32.will control each year how much is spent on what you spend it on. What
:12:33. > :12:35.we are saying is because we have formed -- reformed the state
:12:36. > :12:39.pension, we will be much more relaxed about what people do with
:12:40. > :12:42.their own money. The evidence is that people who have been frugal and
:12:43. > :12:47.saved hard for retirement do not generally blows a lot. They will
:12:48. > :12:52.spin it out. It is treating people as adults and giving them choices
:12:53. > :13:00.they should have had all along. It is a red herring, isn't it? The
:13:01. > :13:06.average pension pot is between 5000 and 30,000. Lamborghinis aren't an
:13:07. > :13:11.option, correct? I gather only about 5000 people a year retiring can buy
:13:12. > :13:14.a flashy Italian sports car. It might be about paying off a
:13:15. > :13:18.mortgage, paying off outstanding debts. Maybe spending more money
:13:19. > :13:22.earlier in retirement when they are fit and able and can enjoy it more.
:13:23. > :13:27.We will give people guidance. We will make sure when they retire
:13:28. > :13:30.there is someone to have a conversation with talking through
:13:31. > :13:34.the implications of spending the money early and options of investing
:13:35. > :13:41.it. This will be a real step forward. Even if you have a much
:13:42. > :13:45.bigger pension pot, say half ?1 million, which is way bigger than
:13:46. > :13:50.the average, even then the marginal rates of tax will be a disincentive
:13:51. > :13:58.to take it all out at once. You will lose huge chunks of it at the 4 %
:13:59. > :14:02.band and then the 45% band. The tax system gives you the incentive to
:14:03. > :14:07.spread it out if the tax threshold is a bit over 10000 and the state
:14:08. > :14:12.pension is a bit over 7000, the first 3000 you draw out in a given
:14:13. > :14:20.year is tax-free. The next band is at 20%. Spreading your money will
:14:21. > :14:23.mean you pay less tax. That is why, in general, people will not blow the
:14:24. > :14:29.lot up front. They will spread it out over their retirement. You have
:14:30. > :14:34.kept this policy quiet. Not even a hint. How did you test it? How did
:14:35. > :14:40.you make sure it would be robust? You did not do a consultation. I
:14:41. > :14:44.have been talking about freeing up the annuity market for a decade The
:14:45. > :14:48.idea of giving people more choice. The government has relaxed rules
:14:49. > :14:52.over this Parliament. It was not a completely new idea. We know in
:14:53. > :15:01.places like Australia and America, people have these freedoms. We
:15:02. > :15:03.already have something to judge it by. We will spend the next year
:15:04. > :15:06.talking to people, working it through. There will be a three-month
:15:07. > :15:09.consultation. I want people to have choices about their own money. There
:15:10. > :15:15.is detail still to be worked out and we are in listening mode about how
:15:16. > :15:18.we implement it. When you announce something you cannot do widespread
:15:19. > :15:22.consultation, for the reasons I have given, you do run the risk of
:15:23. > :15:25.unforeseen consequences? Pension companies this morning are
:15:26. > :15:29.indicating, you, the government can write you are looking for ?25
:15:30. > :15:35.billion of infrastructure investment from us. You hold our shell below
:15:36. > :15:52.the water line. That may not happen. We spoke internally about the
:15:53. > :16:02.implications for instruction -- infrastructure. It seems to me there
:16:03. > :16:09.will still be long-term investments. Many people want to turn their whole
:16:10. > :16:12.pot into an income. I understand the insurance companies are lobbying,
:16:13. > :16:19.but I'm convinced there will still be plenty of money for investment
:16:20. > :16:24.and infrastructure. If the Chancellor's pro-savings measures
:16:25. > :16:29.work, that will generate more savings. With no requirement now to
:16:30. > :16:36.buy an annuity, surely it is the case that pension pots are another
:16:37. > :16:42.ordinary savings fund, so why should they continue to get favourable tax
:16:43. > :16:47.treatment? Bear in mind that a lot of the tax treatment of pensioners
:16:48. > :16:52.is tax deferred so most people pay tax at the standard rate. If they
:16:53. > :17:00.put money into a pension, they don't pay tax when they earn it, but they
:17:01. > :17:05.do at retirement. We do want, we will still have automatic enrolment
:17:06. > :17:10.into workplace pensions, we do want people to build up, because at age
:17:11. > :17:17.20 and 30 nobody thinks about retirement. It is still vital that
:17:18. > :17:24.people do reach retirement to have these new choices with a decent
:17:25. > :17:28.sized pension pot. Pensions. Tax breaks because they were supposed to
:17:29. > :17:32.provide an income in retirement that is how it was structured, but
:17:33. > :17:39.that is no longer a requirement surely that undermines the case that
:17:40. > :17:45.if they get tax breaks, other forms of savings should get tax breaks.
:17:46. > :17:59.Other forms do get tax breaks, of course. The return with ISAs is tax
:18:00. > :18:08.free. The point with pensions is that you are simply deferring your
:18:09. > :18:11.earnings. There is a bit when high tax rate payers get a kick when they
:18:12. > :18:17.are working and then retire on standard rate, so there is the issue
:18:18. > :18:21.of the top getting too many tax breaks, but the basic principle that
:18:22. > :18:29.you pay tax when you get the income seems right to me and isn't affected
:18:30. > :18:33.by these changes. You have announced save friendly measures, are we right
:18:34. > :18:38.to look at them as a consolation prize because savers have suffered
:18:39. > :18:43.from the Government's policy of keeping interest rates abnormally
:18:44. > :18:49.low? It is certainly the case that very low interest rates have been a
:18:50. > :18:53.huge boon to people of working age with mortgages, and people who have
:18:54. > :18:58.retired said they thought they could have got a better deal on their
:18:59. > :19:03.savings. I think there is a recognition that whilst we have done
:19:04. > :19:10.the right thing with pensioners on the state pension, we have brought
:19:11. > :19:19.in the triple lock, and many will bent on -- benefit from these
:19:20. > :19:24.changes. Why don't savers who are not pensioners get the same help?
:19:25. > :19:30.They have been hit by low interest rates as well. Those of working
:19:31. > :19:35.age, many of them say they have benefited from low interest rates
:19:36. > :19:43.was predominantly people in retirement have not had the benefit.
:19:44. > :19:52.Obviously people of working age will have benefited from the tax
:19:53. > :19:57.allowance so it is a myth to say the Budget was all about pensioners And
:19:58. > :20:00.yet even when the Office for Budget Responsibility takes into account
:20:01. > :20:06.your new measures, it still shows that over the next five years
:20:07. > :20:13.households will save less and less, indeed the savings ratio falls by
:20:14. > :20:18.50%. You haven't done enough. One of the things we know is that the
:20:19. > :20:22.economy is picking up strongly, and as we have more confidence about the
:20:23. > :20:26.future they will be more willing to consume now, so without these
:20:27. > :20:32.measures it may be that the saving rate would have fallen further. We
:20:33. > :20:38.want people to save and spend, it is about getting the right balance As
:20:39. > :20:42.the economy picks up, people will want to spend more of their money
:20:43. > :20:47.and it is about getting the balance right. You make the point that if
:20:48. > :20:51.people are little profligate with their private pensions, they will
:20:52. > :20:56.have the state pension to fall back on and it will be higher than it has
:20:57. > :21:01.been, but it is also the case that in these circumstances they will
:21:02. > :21:07.still be entitled to housing benefit and even to perhaps some council tax
:21:08. > :21:13.benefit as well. Do you know by how much this could put the welfare bill
:21:14. > :21:18.up? We think the impact will be relatively modest because the sort
:21:19. > :21:22.of people who save for a pension and make sacrifices while they are at
:21:23. > :21:29.work are not the sort of people who get to 65 and decide to blow the lot
:21:30. > :21:33.for the great privilege of receiving council tax benefit or housing
:21:34. > :21:44.benefit. There will be people on the margins and
:21:45. > :21:45.benefit. There will be people on the who retire with some capital want to
:21:46. > :21:52.put some money away for their funeral. People like to save even
:21:53. > :21:57.into retirement so the myth of the spendthrift pensioner I don't
:21:58. > :22:03.believe. I think this has been rightly welcomed. Ever fancied a
:22:04. > :22:19.Lamborghini yourself? If you turned the camera around you would see my
:22:20. > :22:21.2-door Corsa! What's your favourite thing about an
:22:22. > :22:24.election? Could it be the candidates ringing on your door while you're
:22:25. > :22:27.having dinner? The leaflets piling up on your doormat? Or the endless
:22:28. > :22:30.adverts aimed at hardworking families? Well, if you thought that
:22:31. > :22:33.was bad enough, then you might want to consider going overseas for the
:22:34. > :22:36.2015 election because the parties are going to be aiming their message
:22:37. > :22:42.at you like never before. Adam's been to Worcester to find out more.
:22:43. > :22:48.One of the most famous political figures in history lived here, she
:22:49. > :22:52.is called Worcester woman. She was in her 30s, working class with a
:22:53. > :22:56.couple of kids, aspirational yet worried about quality of life. But
:22:57. > :23:01.she wasn't a real person, she was a label for the kind of voter new
:23:02. > :23:08.Labour were trying to reach and she was later joined by Mondeo man and
:23:09. > :23:12.several others. Doesn't that all seem a bit 90s? The technique,
:23:13. > :23:19.called segmentation, was used by George Bush in 2004. Then refined by
:23:20. > :23:25.Barack Obama. Rather than focusing on crude measures like cars and
:23:26. > :23:29.hometowns, they delved into the minds of voters. It is not just
:23:30. > :23:35.women, not just people who live in cities, but if you start to put
:23:36. > :23:40.together these groups of people you can even in an anecdote or way
:23:41. > :23:48.imagine who they are, what types of language and imagery might relate to
:23:49. > :23:53.them. We have been given access to a new polling model being used here by
:23:54. > :24:00.this firm, which is pretty close to the one we are told is being used by
:24:01. > :24:04.the Tories. It carves the country into six personality types, and we
:24:05. > :24:10.are trying it out on Worcester woman and wast of man. We are using an
:24:11. > :24:18.online quiz to work out who is in which segment. Meet new monk,
:24:19. > :24:25.Susie. She feels well represented. I know the Budget and the increases to
:24:26. > :24:30.childcare, I think at the moment I am fairly represented. This puts her
:24:31. > :24:35.in the category of optimistic contentment, people who feel they
:24:36. > :24:43.are doing OK. Terry, on the other hand, isn't happy about Britain
:24:44. > :24:52.today. Health and safety and all that! I hardly recognise the country
:24:53. > :24:59.a living in any more? Yes. Are you ready for the result? He is Mr
:25:00. > :25:03.comfortable nostalgia, they tend to favour the Tories and UKIP. They
:25:04. > :25:10.dislike the cultural changes they see as altering Britain for the
:25:11. > :25:17.worst. That sums me up. Tony is worried as well but feels much less
:25:18. > :25:25.secure. I look forward to the future with optimism or anxiety? Anxiety.
:25:26. > :25:35.Optimist or pessimist? Pessimist. His category is... You feel a bit
:25:36. > :25:42.insecure, you think the Government could probably help you more? Yes.
:25:43. > :25:48.Labour picks up a lot of these voters. This man is being asked to
:25:49. > :25:56.do more and more at work, but he is getting less and less. I am getting
:25:57. > :26:01.more towards the despair side. Things are getting tougher,
:26:02. > :26:07.generally? It puts him into the segment called long-term despair,
:26:08. > :26:17.people who feel left out. Finally, this is ever thoughtful Carol. I am
:26:18. > :26:24.a bit of an idealist. Her idealism makes her a cosmopolitan critic I
:26:25. > :26:28.am a liberal person. Apparently a lot of the media fit into this
:26:29. > :26:33.category as well. There is one group of voters we have not come across,
:26:34. > :26:38.people who show calm persistence. They hope things will get better but
:26:39. > :26:43.don't expect them to. They are coping, rather than comfortable
:26:44. > :26:48.Presumably they are all out of work. Which group are you win? You can
:26:49. > :26:53.take the poll on the BBC website, and in the coming weeks we will be
:26:54. > :27:00.doing our own polling using the six segments to see of the politicians
:27:01. > :27:04.really have worked out how we think. And as Adam said, if you want to try
:27:05. > :27:07.the survey for yourself, you can go to the BBC website and click on the
:27:08. > :27:16.link. And we're joined now by the
:27:17. > :27:22.pollster, Rick Nye. Welcome to Sunday Politics. We have had
:27:23. > :27:29.Worcester woman, Worcester man, is this any different? It is a
:27:30. > :27:42.recognition that or politician - all politics these days is like
:27:43. > :27:50.this. It enables them to cut them more finally. You think all politics
:27:51. > :27:55.is coalition politics, you think they have to put together these
:27:56. > :28:01.groups of people, not that the Lib Dems will always be in power? No,
:28:02. > :28:07.and if you listen to the coverage these days you might think it is
:28:08. > :28:12.about grumpy old men on the one hand with Guardian readers on the other.
:28:13. > :28:15.It is far more complicated than that, there is a lot of churning
:28:16. > :28:23.going on underneath which is driven by people's value systems. A lot of
:28:24. > :28:28.this has been pioneered in the United States, very sophisticated on
:28:29. > :28:33.their election techniques, and in Britain we are always the first to
:28:34. > :28:38.grab whatever the New Year will is from America. How do you think this
:28:39. > :28:42.will translate to this country? I think it means that if you are
:28:43. > :28:47.target photo you will still get the same of leaflets and people calling,
:28:48. > :28:52.but you will probably have different kinds of conversations because
:28:53. > :28:59.people on the other side, the party campaigners, will think they know
:29:00. > :29:03.more about you. Will I know who you are? If I am a party campaigner
:29:04. > :29:08.will I know, looking down the street, who fits into which
:29:09. > :29:12.category? You will be able to approximate that with all of the
:29:13. > :29:17.other data that you have gathered through polling, or doing local
:29:18. > :29:23.campaigning, that is the idea to make sense of this vast quantity of
:29:24. > :29:28.data people have about voters. We asked our panel to fill in your
:29:29. > :29:34.survey. Nick is optimistic contentment, 99%. He was 1%
:29:35. > :29:40.cosmopolitan critic, which is how he keeps his job at the Guardian.
:29:41. > :29:46.Polly's job could not be more secure, 100% cosmopolitan critics,
:29:47. > :29:50.and Janan Ganesh, optimistic contentment, which is what you would
:29:51. > :30:06.expect from a financial Times columnist. What do you make of this
:30:07. > :30:16.technique? Why are you only 99? It sounds really clever. 95% of the
:30:17. > :30:20.population five years ago voted Labour or the Conservatives. We have
:30:21. > :30:26.got away from that. It is coalition politics. You need sophisticated
:30:27. > :30:33.methods. Presumably you must not lose touch with basic points. You
:30:34. > :30:38.said it was used in the US presidential elections. Wasn't there
:30:39. > :30:43.them moment emit Romney 's sweet when the initial response was, we
:30:44. > :30:50.did not know the sort of people voted. His next response was, we did
:30:51. > :30:54.not know these people existed. Unless you know about certain key
:30:55. > :31:00.demographics, you are wasting your time. Is it important in modern
:31:01. > :31:11.campaigning? I think it is useful because it is about attitude. We
:31:12. > :31:16.have got Mosaic. We have got Acorn. It does not tell us very much. What
:31:17. > :31:20.people think and feel may be different to their income. You can
:31:21. > :31:24.be quite a high earner and anxious. You can be quite a low earner and
:31:25. > :31:31.feeling aspirational and optimistic about the future. I think this does
:31:32. > :31:36.get something else. In days gone by, particularly in America,
:31:37. > :31:40.overwhelmingly, if you are in the better of segment, you would be
:31:41. > :31:44.Republican and the blue-collar workers and some academics and
:31:45. > :31:49.Liberals voted Democrat. In the last election, the richest 200 counties
:31:50. > :31:54.in America voted Democrat. That is an attitude thing. Income does not
:31:55. > :31:59.tell you how people will vote. There is a huge, working-class base of
:32:00. > :32:03.support for the Republicans. It is unavoidable. Add a time when people
:32:04. > :32:12.no longer identify with ideologies or class blocks, you have to go the
:32:13. > :32:22.temperament and lifestyle and manageable. In America there were
:32:23. > :32:27.128 segments according to lifestyle and Outlook. Once you get to that
:32:28. > :32:32.stage, it becomes close to useless. We were talking about the budget
:32:33. > :32:40.earlier. What other polls saying about the budget? The lead of labour
:32:41. > :32:48.has been narrowed over the Conservatives. -- Labour. Osborne
:32:49. > :32:54.and Cameron as an academic team have always had a lead over Miller band
:32:55. > :32:56.and Balls. This week it is about economic management. -- over Mr
:32:57. > :33:12.Miller band. Thank you for being with us today.
:33:13. > :33:16.It's just gone 11:30am. You're watching the Sunday Politics. We say
:33:17. > :33:19.goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now for Sunday Politics
:33:20. > :33:22.Scotland. Coming up here in 20 minutes: We'll be talking about
:33:23. > :33:25.Labour's response to the Budget and hear why one of the Happy Mondays
:33:26. > :33:35.wants to be an MP. First though the Sunday Politics where you are.
:33:36. > :33:48.Can you welcome to my two guest today? We will be interested in one
:33:49. > :33:54.of the things we were talking about a bit later. An Italian man,
:33:55. > :33:59.previously linked with the Mafia and living in Uxbridge, escaped
:34:00. > :34:02.extradition. How is the European arrest warrant working? That in a
:34:03. > :34:10.moment. Before that a quick word on budgetary beer bingo and building.
:34:11. > :34:16.The capital has never faced such housing needs. In one sentence, this
:34:17. > :34:20.was what was on offer this week In the South East, where the pressure
:34:21. > :34:24.is greatest, we are going to build new homes in Barking riverside and
:34:25. > :34:34.built the first new garden city in 100 years. Does that deal with the
:34:35. > :34:40.areas housing problems? The Chancellor made some important
:34:41. > :34:45.statements in relation to Barking and Brent Cross. It is the
:34:46. > :34:50.underpinning. There is work that the mayor is taking forward overwhelming
:34:51. > :34:55.to open up the riverside frontage. That is the issue. It is not an
:34:56. > :35:03.important announcement by the Tunstall if the key component is not
:35:04. > :35:15.there. -- announced by the Chancellor is the key component is
:35:16. > :35:21.not there. They must scope out the extension to the rail line. It was
:35:22. > :35:26.about ensuring support for savers and investing in business and the
:35:27. > :35:30.pensioners. A locked for Londoners to welcome. Is that enough when you
:35:31. > :35:37.see a mention of something in a budget? We're going to create these
:35:38. > :35:42.homes. By mentioning them, is it a sign of your intent? You do not have
:35:43. > :35:49.to give any further details. This was the classic Day after tomorrow
:35:50. > :35:55.budget. The London housing problems are endemic. They are to do with
:35:56. > :35:58.cost and access. You talk about every fleet, it has the Channel
:35:59. > :36:06.Tunnel and the international rail link. When you look at Barking and
:36:07. > :36:10.Dagenham... It has shrunk down. It is all over the place. In Mount
:36:11. > :36:15.Pleasant, there was originally going to be a huge amount of social
:36:16. > :36:19.housing. There is very little. Opening up the riverside is an
:36:20. > :36:23.excellent idea. There are issues about water levels which we need to
:36:24. > :36:29.worry about. This is not going to solve the problem. It is a problem
:36:30. > :36:37.of access and finance. We have to consider that. Once it is being
:36:38. > :36:44.mentioned it is a long process it takes time with the details. The
:36:45. > :36:47.process has been set out. The discussions and detailed between the
:36:48. > :36:56.man and Treasury are taking place. It must be ensured the
:36:57. > :37:00.infrastructure supports this. When you look at what the man has said
:37:01. > :37:02.this week, that he believes the funding will be there once the
:37:03. > :37:08.detailed planning and repose of our there, we will see that work being
:37:09. > :37:13.done. There has been very little consistencies in the housing
:37:14. > :37:16.policies of the mayor. To say we are going to do something in five years
:37:17. > :37:22.time when we have the biggest level of cuts about to hit us after
:37:23. > :37:32.2015... I will tell you what we will have, three Docklands light Railway
:37:33. > :37:36.stations. In the real world, Ken Livingstone introduced the social
:37:37. > :37:43.housing component. That gave proper affordable housing to Londoners and
:37:44. > :37:49.that was a real achievement. Might rail was not going to solve that
:37:50. > :37:54.issue. -- the Docklands light Railway was not going to solve that
:37:55. > :37:58.issue. We will see when that discussion comes. It is heavy row
:37:59. > :38:03.that is the issue. We have a lot to get through. The European arrest
:38:04. > :38:08.warrant was introduced a decade ago by the then Labour government. Its
:38:09. > :38:11.aim, to speed up the extradition process within the European Union,
:38:12. > :38:14.help counterterrorism put an end to the days of bank robbers retiring to
:38:15. > :38:19.Spain to live out their retirement in the sun. Changes to how the
:38:20. > :38:23.system works out as gone through Parliament. It has been highlighted
:38:24. > :38:28.again by the curious Case of the former Mafia man, unearthed in
:38:29. > :38:36.Axbridge. This ordinary looking at Bridge Street was in the news this
:38:37. > :38:41.week due to one extra ordinarily resident. -- Uxbridge. Domenico
:38:42. > :38:44.Rancadore was a leading figure in organised crime. Westminster
:38:45. > :38:49.magistrates Court refused to deport him under a European arrest warrant.
:38:50. > :38:57.It said Italian prisons were so overcrowded it would be in breach of
:38:58. > :39:00.his human rights. This country will actually not extradite someone who
:39:01. > :39:11.is a convicted Cosa Nostra individual apparently from the
:39:12. > :39:15.Mafia. Andrew went on holiday to Greece with friends, aged 18. On his
:39:16. > :39:22.return to the UK, aged 18. On his return to the UK copy was wrongly
:39:23. > :39:28.accused by the Greek was not even in. He was deported to Greece and
:39:29. > :39:35.spent two years fighting the case. The conditions were terrible. I
:39:36. > :39:41.think what was far worse was the emotional side. Many members, and in
:39:42. > :39:45.particular my honourable friend for Enfield North, will recall the
:39:46. > :39:50.case... The government recognises that in this case something went
:39:51. > :39:54.wrong. A change in the law was introduced so people would only be
:39:55. > :40:01.extradited to face trial abroad not sent to a foreign country to
:40:02. > :40:05.investigate. They claimed they were trial ready but they were not. The
:40:06. > :40:11.problem is you cannot work with them at all. That is the problem. If you
:40:12. > :40:16.say they have to be trial ready they will say they are trial ready
:40:17. > :40:20.but they are liars. Deborah was found not guilty of a drug offence
:40:21. > :40:26.in France will stop she returned to the UK and lived the normal life.
:40:27. > :40:29.Known to her, the French court tried her in her absence. She was found
:40:30. > :40:33.guilty and the European arrest warrant issued. It was when she was
:40:34. > :40:39.returning from this family holiday in Spain that she found out. The
:40:40. > :40:43.Spanish authorities detained her with the intention of extraditing
:40:44. > :40:51.her to France. She went to a Spanish prison. Constant fighting. Every
:40:52. > :40:55.single day. It was not unusual to see a body come out one of the
:40:56. > :41:00.cells, they put them on a sack and drag them down the corridor. The
:41:01. > :41:05.Spanish courts decided not to extradite her. She flew back to the
:41:06. > :41:09.UK and was picked up at Gatwick airport on the same European arrest
:41:10. > :41:18.warrant. She was sent to Holloway prison and have to fight the same
:41:19. > :41:23.warrant. She said the effect on her life is permanent. It has destroyed
:41:24. > :41:31.my life completely. It has left me unemployable. I have massive debt.
:41:32. > :41:42.At my age, eyes should be enjoying life. I am not. I am just existing.
:41:43. > :41:47.According to campaigners, the safeguards introduced will do
:41:48. > :41:50.nothing to stop cases like this Even though the British courts have
:41:51. > :41:54.refused to extradite her and the Spanish courts, the arrest warrant
:41:55. > :41:59.still sat there for some any time she left the UK, she was subject to
:42:00. > :42:04.the risk of being rearrested. You need an EU wide solution to deal
:42:05. > :42:07.with that. The UK on its own cannot solve the problem. The safeguards
:42:08. > :42:11.that have been introduced would not deal with that. While the government
:42:12. > :42:16.says the European arrest warrant does not work on the way it should,
:42:17. > :42:23.there are attempts to do something about it and this has left some
:42:24. > :42:29.dissatisfied. Let's start with the case of Domenico Rancadore. What did
:42:30. > :42:34.you make of that? I think it is important to underline this is a
:42:35. > :42:38.case on specific facts which related to prison conditions in Italy. It
:42:39. > :42:46.may well be that judgement will be appealed. It is difficult for me to
:42:47. > :42:49.comment in detail. What I do understand is concerned around the
:42:50. > :42:55.effectiveness of the European arrest warrant. That is why we have made
:42:56. > :43:02.changes. Give us a reaction at a human level to that reaction?
:43:03. > :43:07.Italian prison, apparently to overcrowded to send a former Mafia.
:43:08. > :43:10.They want him back there. The court was satisfied that all the
:43:11. > :43:14.conditions were met in terms of returning this individual under the
:43:15. > :43:18.European arrest warrant. It was simply that the provisions that the
:43:19. > :43:22.Italians had provided, the insurances they gave, were not
:43:23. > :43:27.sufficient. I think it is important that we do step up our response to
:43:28. > :43:33.have that greater consistency. The European arrest warrant we have used
:43:34. > :43:38.effectively in countries like Spain. There was a joint operation between
:43:39. > :43:42.our law enforcement, Crimestoppers and the Spanish authorities. It has
:43:43. > :43:46.seen serious criminals return to this country to face justice. I have
:43:47. > :43:53.publicly supported it for its work in that way. There are issues and
:43:54. > :44:00.reforms we would like to see. What do you think? Do you think
:44:01. > :44:05.conditions in Italian prisons are not good enough? There have been two
:44:06. > :44:11.cases where Italian conditions have not been held to be sufficient.
:44:12. > :44:16.There was a previous Lithuanian case. What I think is we can work
:44:17. > :44:20.through this, assurances can be given. The court has said it does
:44:21. > :44:24.not mean we cannot extradite people to Italy. The focus is on working
:44:25. > :44:29.through. That is what the Crown Prosecution Service and the Italian
:44:30. > :44:34.authorities will be doing so we can see the European arrest warrant are
:44:35. > :44:38.upheld. Do you accept it may well raise doubts about the European
:44:39. > :44:43.arrest warrant system, even though, as you say, it should not
:44:44. > :44:47.specifically do that? Assurances can be examined to see how the court can
:44:48. > :44:52.be better satisfied as to the conditions. That is one thing. It is
:44:53. > :44:54.not for me to make the decision My understanding is that an appeal is
:44:55. > :44:59.likely to be forthcoming and I would support that to test the law, to see
:45:00. > :45:07.that we can uphold European arrest warrant effectively. It is a
:45:08. > :45:08.specific case, based on specific facts. What you feel about him being
:45:09. > :45:21.allowed to stay here? I think that saying Italian prisons
:45:22. > :45:32.are too dangerous, every single Italian prosecutor now will be
:45:33. > :45:40.saying, my lord, they have set our prisons are so dangerous they
:45:41. > :45:48.infringe human rights! Who was almost my neighbour, the Uxbridge
:45:49. > :45:52.mafioso. Where you think you have reformed and tighten the rules, he
:45:53. > :46:00.says, you say you won't let people go abroad, say, to Greece unless it
:46:01. > :46:07.is for trial, he will say it is but it isn't really. Nobody can not be
:46:08. > :46:13.moved by the Andrew sinew case and that is why we have made changes to
:46:14. > :46:20.legislation to underpin the sense of it being ready, and trial will
:46:21. > :46:26.proceed. Ultimately, with this change, it is possible to bring this
:46:27. > :46:30.before the courts for the court to examine this properly. That is why I
:46:31. > :46:34.think it is a significant change but has been brought forward. I'm sure
:46:35. > :46:40.there is more we can do at a European level, and it is something
:46:41. > :46:44.the European Parliament itself is getting its teeth into, recognising
:46:45. > :46:50.these are not just issues for the UK but other countries as well. Is
:46:51. > :46:56.there anything you can say to the Greeks? You will have to be much
:46:57. > :47:02.more straight with us, we are happy to extradite people but you cannot
:47:03. > :47:10.keep them waiting. Luck one of them madness is about the Deborah Dark
:47:11. > :47:14.case is that she didn't even know her case had been appealed and it is
:47:15. > :47:19.the policy not to tell people whether an arrest warrant has been
:47:20. > :47:24.applied for, or if it exists. There has to be some sort of mutual
:47:25. > :47:32.recognition within the EU where each European state recognises... Because
:47:33. > :47:38.we are not part of that agreement, whenever she travels it could happen
:47:39. > :47:54.to her again. We have no intention of becoming party shame on but we
:47:55. > :47:58.are pursuing the system to do with sharing information and it is due to
:47:59. > :48:02.come into effect October this year so there is better recognition and
:48:03. > :48:08.understanding of when European arrest warrants have been issued so
:48:09. > :48:13.that there is clarity between member states. So it could not happen again
:48:14. > :48:21.that if she was travelling in Spain for instance that she could ever get
:48:22. > :48:26.that warrant reactivated from France? Each member state can see
:48:27. > :48:30.the arrest warrants issued by the other member states, that will make
:48:31. > :48:35.it more effective, but I'm sure there is more to do and why we want
:48:36. > :48:39.to have the further debate at EU level. We have been hearing a lot
:48:40. > :48:45.again this week about the proposed high-speed to rail link. First the
:48:46. > :48:49.project's new chairman back to revamp of Euston station, but he
:48:50. > :48:54.also suggested there should be no connection with the existing
:48:55. > :48:58.high-speed Channel Tunnel rail link. Then the Government released a
:48:59. > :49:02.report which recommended there be a minister dedicated to making the
:49:03. > :49:06.project happen, and which also said that businesses and communities
:49:07. > :49:11.along the route needed to start preparing now so they can reap the
:49:12. > :49:17.economic benefit. We are joined from Manchester by a Liberal Democrat
:49:18. > :49:22.peer, Baroness Susan Kramer. During that introduction, Stephen Pound
:49:23. > :49:28.pointed at you and said, there we are, just the Minister to do it It
:49:29. > :49:35.is kind of view, but there is a minister, Patrick McLoughlin. They
:49:36. > :49:40.are actually suggesting in the report that we look at a minister to
:49:41. > :49:44.coordinate the economic developments among communities because in the
:49:45. > :49:48.Midlands and the north, that is crucial to realising the real
:49:49. > :49:55.benefits from HS2 and that is something we will look at. So it may
:49:56. > :50:01.or may not be you one day. Do you accept it has been a mess over
:50:02. > :50:05.Euston. It said there would be a revamping of Euston to begin with,
:50:06. > :50:10.then people went cold on the idea, then it looks like we have got to go
:50:11. > :50:17.and do Euston properly. Do you accept this has been a bit confusing
:50:18. > :50:22.and unsettling for local residents? I am glad we have been getting to
:50:23. > :50:26.the right answer, but now we are looking at a really ambitious plan
:50:27. > :50:40.and you only have to look at the improvements at King's Cross and
:50:41. > :50:47.Saint Pancras to realise the potential. How do you want
:50:48. > :50:57.passengers under this revised plan to get from high-speed to at Euston
:50:58. > :51:04.to high-speed one at Saint Pancras if they go to France? We want to
:51:05. > :51:08.link them. My instinct is that there is a substantial and effective way
:51:09. > :51:12.to do it, but I think David Higgins was right to say that the proposal
:51:13. > :51:17.on the table was not worth doing. It didn't come up to standard. The
:51:18. > :51:24.train was going to proceed at 2 mph, huge disruption to Camden
:51:25. > :51:29.market and much of the community, disruption to freight traffic and
:51:30. > :51:37.passenger traffic. Has it been ruled out that over land route now? Yes,
:51:38. > :51:42.and he made the right decision. There has to be a quick way to get
:51:43. > :52:00.to Euston, and you can do that with the Crossrail, travel --
:52:01. > :52:05.travelators... What do you think? It proves one of the golden rules of
:52:06. > :52:10.politics, if you want something stopped, make sure Boris Johnson's
:52:11. > :52:19.father lives in the heart of it The idea of a travelator is bonkers
:52:20. > :52:24.There has to be a mechanism of bringing the two together, and
:52:25. > :52:33.whether that is an extra line on London Underground or whatever, it
:52:34. > :52:42.is possible. The answer is that you be trading at Wormwood Scrubs, it
:52:43. > :52:46.seems incredibly complicated. I cannot believe it is beyond the wit
:52:47. > :52:51.of woman and man to work out some subterranean system of linking the
:52:52. > :52:56.two together, that is the answer, not to destroy the ground level of
:52:57. > :53:01.Camden. Lord Heseltine is saying that he thinks people should be
:53:02. > :53:06.compensated along the route above market value, what do you say? We
:53:07. > :53:10.have done a property consultation and should be coming back with that
:53:11. > :53:15.response fairly soon. I don't want to pre-empt that but we have always
:53:16. > :53:25.said we should be generous in compensation. Now the rest of the
:53:26. > :53:30.political news in 60 seconds. Nearly 5000 children aged between
:53:31. > :53:33.ten and 16 have been strip-searched by the Metropolitan police over the
:53:34. > :53:38.last five years, according to figures published this week. About a
:53:39. > :53:43.third of them were subsequently released without charge. The mayor
:53:44. > :53:47.has written to Theresa May in support of Metropolitan Police's bid
:53:48. > :53:52.for water cannon to tackle extreme disorder. Boris Johnson said he had
:53:53. > :53:56.been convinced the water cannon were needed and asked her to give it the
:53:57. > :54:07.green light. The Government has announced plans to increase capacity
:54:08. > :54:10.on the M4. It aims to reduce pollution by converting speed limits
:54:11. > :54:14.and converting the hard shoulder into a traffic lane. Boris
:54:15. > :54:17.Johnson's father has said Conservatives from outside
:54:18. > :54:22.parliament should be allowed to stand for leadership at the party.
:54:23. > :54:31.It has fuelled speculation about Boris Johnson's prospects.
:54:32. > :54:36.Some are saying this could be a really tedious story that we return
:54:37. > :54:41.to again and again, but let's do it anyway - Boris Johnson, should he
:54:42. > :54:47.come back as an MP at the election, as David Cameron has said this week?
:54:48. > :54:51.I have worked alongside Boris Johnson previously as a
:54:52. > :54:57.Parliamentary colleague and I know that he brings vibrancy and colour.
:54:58. > :55:02.The mayor has said he wants to serve out his term. I wouldn't like to put
:55:03. > :55:11.money on it. He could stay on but if he wants to come back, that is a
:55:12. > :55:17.decision for him. What do you reckon, Stephen? It will be out of a
:55:18. > :55:21.job anyway come the next election. There is something contemptible
:55:22. > :55:26.about this, we regard a constituency as a springboard back into
:55:27. > :55:31.Parliament. The idea that there is a group of people somewhere in some
:55:32. > :55:36.safe Tory seat who can be there to open the door for Boris to come
:55:37. > :55:44.back. He is a marvellous man, but that is not what it is all about.
:55:45. > :55:50.What about water cannon? I'm totally against water cannon. I have seen
:55:51. > :55:56.them operated in Belfast. They work if you have a mob of people charging
:55:57. > :56:05.towards you. So they wouldn't have worked in the riots. What do you
:56:06. > :56:11.think? I have been to a training centre and seen how the water cannon
:56:12. > :56:15.can be used for very significant disturbance. You think Theresa May
:56:16. > :56:23.will say disturbance. You think Theresa May
:56:24. > :56:23.decision, she will weigh up the factors. Andrew, back
:56:24. > :56:39.The big news is the popular server is struggling to control all of the
:56:40. > :56:44.people who want to find out where they fit in the political spectrum.
:56:45. > :56:49.It hasn't quite crashed but it is queueing up those people. Who would
:56:50. > :56:59.have thought the Sunday Politics had so many viewers? It has never
:57:00. > :57:01.happened on the X factor. This morning's papers don't make
:57:02. > :57:04.comfortable reading for Labour with two separate polls showing the
:57:05. > :57:08.party's lead over the Tories is down to just one point. And there's been
:57:09. > :57:11.plenty of criticism of Ed Miliband's response to the Budget. Let's take a
:57:12. > :57:14.look. You know you are in trouble when even the Education Secretary
:57:15. > :57:26.calls you and out of touch bunch of elitist. Where is he? He is hiding!
:57:27. > :57:33.I think he has been consigned to the naughty step by the Prime Minister.
:57:34. > :57:38.The naughty step! And we're joined now by shadow chief secretary to the
:57:39. > :57:42.Treasury, Chris Leslie. There was a widely criticised response by Ed
:57:43. > :57:48.Balls to the Autumn Statement, now a widely criticised response by Ed
:57:49. > :57:54.Miliband to the Budget. Does this show you are struggling at the
:57:55. > :58:00.moment? Of course Ed Balls and Ed Miliband don't want to hear the fact
:58:01. > :58:04.that in reality, for most people, life is getting harder and there is
:58:05. > :58:13.the cost of living crisis. Did we get any mention of that in the
:58:14. > :58:17.Budget? Of course we didn't. We were waiting for action on the cost of
:58:18. > :58:22.living and it wasn't forthcoming. Ed Miliband came up with the tactic of
:58:23. > :58:27.responding to the Budget without mentioning anything that was in it.
:58:28. > :58:31.He mentioned the fact the personal tax allowance was a bit of a
:58:32. > :58:38.giveaway but he takes more with the other hand. He is in favour of that,
:58:39. > :58:42.right? Anything we can get but we need a lot more. Let me tell you
:58:43. > :58:51.something else he mentioned, the fact the national debt has risen by
:58:52. > :58:54.a third and George Osborne and David Cameron... They knew that before the
:58:55. > :59:00.Budget. The borrowing figures were announced and Ed Miliband made
:59:01. > :59:05.reference to those. There is not a lot of happiness on Labour
:59:06. > :59:10.backbenchers about this, is there? And indeed not a lot of happiness in
:59:11. > :59:15.the shadow cabinet. There is concern that Ed Miliband is on a journey to
:59:16. > :59:19.remodel world capitalism whilst George Osborne is firing some love
:59:20. > :59:24.bombs at Middle England by talking about freeing up the pensions market
:59:25. > :59:28.and there is real nerves that what Ed Miliband is saying is not going
:59:29. > :59:35.to be in tune with those middle income earners that the Labour Party
:59:36. > :59:42.has got to attract if they are going to win the general election. When
:59:43. > :59:45.Rachel Reeves used the medium of Radio 4 to announce you were broadly
:59:46. > :59:49.in favour of the pension reforms announced by the Chancellor on
:59:50. > :59:59.Friday night, was that a result of a decision taken by the shadow
:00:00. > :00:06.cabinet? Is With annuities, they are a very old-fashioned product. There
:00:07. > :00:13.are some serious questions which need to be addressed. Was that the
:00:14. > :00:18.result of a Shadow Cabinet decision? We have not had a Shadow
:00:19. > :00:22.Cabinet since the budget. We all want to make sure that we understand
:00:23. > :00:27.the point about flexibility. No one is arguing with that. There are some
:00:28. > :00:31.serious concerns. Let me give you a couple of examples. This is
:00:32. > :00:36.something the Chancellor has done, he claims, for reasons of freedom
:00:37. > :00:39.and flexibility. Is it a coincidence he is grabbing quite a lot of tax
:00:40. > :00:47.from pensioners early on to plug a hole which is necessary because the
:00:48. > :00:53.deficit has not gone down? Forgive me for being slightly cynical about
:00:54. > :00:58.motives. For or against it? We need to have safeguards for protection of
:00:59. > :01:01.pensioners. What will it do for the annuity market if most people still
:01:02. > :01:10.want to have a steadying come for a third of their lives? -- steady
:01:11. > :01:18.income. What does Labour have to do to get it show back on the road The
:01:19. > :01:22.question is, how do people feel How many people will still not be
:01:23. > :01:25.feeling better by the next election? Wages may be rising slightly but not
:01:26. > :01:31.for a large and significant number of people. They were just looking at
:01:32. > :01:34.the YouGov poll. If you look at the middle to low earners, they are
:01:35. > :01:40.overwhelmingly pro-labour. Can Labour get those people out to vote?
:01:41. > :01:44.They are really hurting. There are plenty of them. The question is
:01:45. > :01:48.whether people are optimistic because they see figures as if they
:01:49. > :01:53.look as if they are on the up or whether they vote according to how
:01:54. > :01:58.they feel, which will still be very far behind. Cost of living has been
:01:59. > :02:04.a major mantra from Labour. That's that this chart shows how things are
:02:05. > :02:09.beginning to change. What this shows is that, sometime this year, after a
:02:10. > :02:13.long time at which average earnings trailed inflation, they now overtake
:02:14. > :02:20.it in the run-up to the election and they stay there for the forecast
:02:21. > :02:26.period. What do you now do if your cost of living mantra is running out
:02:27. > :02:30.of steam? I am not sure that, for most people, they will recognise the
:02:31. > :02:33.sense that suddenly things will be getting better. Particularly the
:02:34. > :02:40.younger generation are really feeling quite down about the
:02:41. > :02:46.pressures they are facing to make ends meet. You can see the lines are
:02:47. > :02:51.exaggerated because the Y axis on the side starts quite high up. It
:02:52. > :02:55.does not start at zero. The other statistic from the OBR is that we
:02:56. > :02:59.will not be getting back to the point where wages are exceeding
:03:00. > :03:07.prices from the pre-banking crisis period until late 2017. There are
:03:08. > :03:11.some really serious pressures that people are under. What they wanted
:03:12. > :03:16.was a budget that would address concerns and, for the vast majority
:03:17. > :03:22.of people, they will have heard the statement by George Osborne and
:03:23. > :03:30.think, how is it really help them now? It did not address it. It is
:03:31. > :03:35.clear that by 2015, average living standards will probably not have
:03:36. > :03:39.returned to where they were in 2010. Average wages will not have
:03:40. > :03:43.done that. On the other hand, the chart shows the sense of direction
:03:44. > :03:49.is moving in the right way. Which one matters more with the
:03:50. > :03:52.electorate? I suspect it is sense of direction. People sense of
:03:53. > :03:57.prosperity does not need to be buoyant. It has to be something
:03:58. > :04:03.worth preserving. We have to fear the all turn. That is what intrigued
:04:04. > :04:07.me this week. People make too much of a fuss about the Parliamentary
:04:08. > :04:12.response by Ed Miliband. People will forgive a bad day at the dispatch
:04:13. > :04:20.box. What they will not forgive is the absence of a macro economic
:04:21. > :04:24.mess. Labour have a very powerful message on living standards and lots
:04:25. > :04:30.of popular, targeted interventions like the energy price freeze. You
:04:31. > :04:35.can imagine they will be sufficiently nervous about that next
:04:36. > :04:44.year. If living standards are not back to where they were, Labour can
:04:45. > :04:51.say, are you better off now than when you were four years ago? The
:04:52. > :05:03.reason why break and -- wallowed waken one that is because Jimmy
:05:04. > :05:11.Carter mucked it up -- Ronald Reagan. Labour have to say, vote for
:05:12. > :05:16.us and you will get 2 million homes. At the moment, the offer is very
:05:17. > :05:19.modest. You need to find the money to do that. People need to
:05:20. > :05:23.understand that housing is at the very heart of the economy, as well
:05:24. > :05:30.as young people and their aspirations. At the moment, Labour
:05:31. > :05:33.'s offer is not spectacular in. If the focus group shows the cost of
:05:34. > :05:39.living crisis have no longer has the attraction it did, what line do you
:05:40. > :05:42.move onto? Yellow McCoy must remind people of the wasted years and the
:05:43. > :05:49.cost of living pressures they have been under. -- we must remind
:05:50. > :05:58.people. We want a recovery which has low growth, low wage. A race to the
:05:59. > :06:05.bottom. They want a recovery that is felt by everyone, shared and felt by
:06:06. > :06:09.all. Now, here's an idea to twist your melon. Mark Berry, better known
:06:10. > :06:11.as Bez, it says here he's a member of something called The Happy
:06:12. > :06:15.Mondays, wants to stand for parliament. He's best known for
:06:16. > :06:20.being in a band, and not doing very much, so he might fit in. Here he is
:06:21. > :06:48.in action. And Bez joins us from our Salford
:06:49. > :06:56.studio. Good to see you. Is this a genuine candidacy or are you
:06:57. > :07:05.twisting my melon? Amazing how time flies when you're having fun! You
:07:06. > :07:09.having fun doing this candidacy I am doing the job of the politicians
:07:10. > :07:15.and standing up for the people and bringing attention to the horror of
:07:16. > :07:19.fracking, which is a totally unsafe technology. There is no one in
:07:20. > :07:24.mainstream politics who is discussing or saying anything about
:07:25. > :07:29.it. It is an unsafe technology and it has been proven in America. You
:07:30. > :07:39.see the process in America and the people out on the streets. The whole
:07:40. > :07:44.atmosphere has been made toxic. These people are allowing it to
:07:45. > :07:50.happen in the name of profit. This has been a Labour seat you are
:07:51. > :07:56.fighting in Salford since 1945. It is a tough mountain. Supposing you
:07:57. > :08:02.were to win, could you ever see yourself entering a coalition? With
:08:03. > :08:06.a bit of luck I may be able to shame Labour politicians to do the job
:08:07. > :08:09.properly and stand up for the rights of people. They are not and I am
:08:10. > :08:15.having to do that job. All I am doing is causing debate and bringing
:08:16. > :08:19.to attention the horror that is hanging on our doorsteps. It is not
:08:20. > :08:24.only fracking but GM modified foods that they want to bring into this
:08:25. > :08:33.country as well. Owen Paterson is one of the main lobbyists. Lobbying
:08:34. > :08:38.is legalised bribery, by the way. It is run by the bankers. Basically, we
:08:39. > :08:43.have to stop these monsters from getting into our country and turning
:08:44. > :08:48.our land into a toxic waste. That is what I am trying to say. You are
:08:49. > :08:54.raising the debate, as you are doing with us here. We do not really need
:08:55. > :08:59.fracking. You have done that and you have talked about other things as
:09:00. > :09:06.well. In terms of a new integrity, if you were to become an MP, would
:09:07. > :09:10.you claim expenses? If I ever do get in charge, I would completely enter
:09:11. > :09:15.the banking system and there would be expensive, but they would be like
:09:16. > :09:19.bus passes and train passes. You behave like the people and you are
:09:20. > :09:25.in touch with the people, you move with the people and do understand
:09:26. > :09:28.what the people want. You do not live in acre Kuhn of your own making
:09:29. > :09:36.of luxury, wealth and total disregard of everyone else. -- a
:09:37. > :09:40.cocoon. If you did get into the Palace of Westminster and had to
:09:41. > :09:45.mingle with all these people, who would you rather have in night out
:09:46. > :09:54.with - Mr Cameron, Mr Miller band or Mr Clegg? I would be willing to
:09:55. > :10:03.discuss politics with anybody. I would make them realise what they
:10:04. > :10:09.are doing. I am glad too have a debate and with anyone. The people
:10:10. > :10:15.of Salford, quite a lot people people behind me. I have been
:10:16. > :10:24.speaking to Salford councillors They are going to lend me their
:10:25. > :10:29.support. The people of Salford, and not to forget the people of Eccles,
:10:30. > :10:34.sending you much. We must stop this horror. There is a monster on our
:10:35. > :10:40.doorstep and we must stop it, people. Do not forget to take your
:10:41. > :10:48.maracas on campaign trail. Would you like a pair to shake yourself? You
:10:49. > :10:54.shake your maracas against fracking! Thanks, Bez, goodbye. Thank you for
:10:55. > :11:01.giving me a little platform to express my views. Now if there's one
:11:02. > :11:03.thing that gets us hot under the collar here at the Sunday Politics
:11:04. > :11:07.it's European elections. The only thing we like more than the
:11:08. > :11:11.elections themselves is a TV debate about them. And we're in luck! Take
:11:12. > :11:15.a look at this. Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome leader of
:11:16. > :11:22.the Liberal Democrats and Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg. Gives
:11:23. > :11:30.the most fantastic welcome to Nigel Farage. I would challenge Nigel
:11:31. > :11:37.Farage to a public, open debate about whether she we should be out
:11:38. > :11:48.all in of the European Union. I will do it for Nick Clegg. Since 200 , I
:11:49. > :11:55.have taken part in 45% of votes in the European Parliament. Nigel
:11:56. > :12:03.Farage has not tabled a single amendment since July 2009. Mr Clegg
:12:04. > :12:10.has only taken part in 22% of votes in the House of commons. You can
:12:11. > :12:22.watch the debate at 7pm on the nd of April over on BBC Two. And for a
:12:23. > :12:26.chance to be part of the studio audience on the night and put your
:12:27. > :12:28.question to the two party leaders, e-mail the question you'd like to
:12:29. > :12:31.ask to europedebate@bbc.co.uk or tweet it using the hashtag
:12:32. > :12:34.#europedebate. And Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage will be limbering up
:12:35. > :12:42.this week with their first debate on LBC radio on Wednesday. Who is going
:12:43. > :12:48.to come out the best? I suspect Nigel Farage. It is easy to portray
:12:49. > :12:53.Nick Clegg as morally compromised, who has not asserted himself in
:12:54. > :12:57.government. I do wonder about Nigel Farage, whether he is much better at
:12:58. > :13:02.delivering a popular line and responding to the second question of
:13:03. > :13:06.third question. Nick Clegg will win it hands over fist because he knows
:13:07. > :13:10.this stuff. He is right. The evidence that he can produce about
:13:11. > :13:18.what will happen if we pulled out of Europe will, I think, overwhelm
:13:19. > :13:25.Nigel Farage 's one-liners. They will both be winners because you
:13:26. > :13:29.will have the rare sight of the pro-European saying he likes the
:13:30. > :13:35.European Union. That is unlike Eurosceptics who tie themselves up
:13:36. > :13:49.in knots. 14 Nigel, one for Nick and one for both. There you go. Here is
:13:50. > :13:52.a mess, it is Janen Ganesh. That's all for today. The Daily Politics is
:13:53. > :13:55.on BBC Two at Lunchtime every day this week, I'll be back here next
:13:56. > :13:57.week with Energy Secretary Ed Davey. Remember if it's Sunday, it's the
:13:58. > :14:03.Sunday Politics.