:00:37. > :00:41.Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. Walls are being
:00:42. > :00:44.re-painted in Belfast as Gerry Adams begins his fourth day in police
:00:45. > :00:48.custody in connection with one of the most brutal and shocking murders
:00:49. > :01:00.of the Troubles. That's our top story.
:01:01. > :01:03.He may have got egg on his face this week but Nigel Farage is a serious
:01:04. > :01:05.electoral threat in this month's elections. I'll ask the Conservative
:01:06. > :01:08.Party Chairman Grant Shapps how worried he is.
:01:09. > :01:13.And we're on the trail of Nick Clegg. You were voted the best
:01:14. > :01:18.looking party leader and the most likely to be a good cook. But looks
:01:19. > :01:21.aren't everything - we'll talk to the party's deputy leader as the
:01:22. > :01:27.party faces oblivion in the European elections. In the capital this week,
:01:28. > :01:31.questions of identity, immigration and independence. We have a table
:01:32. > :01:38.full of Euro candidates here to debate what it means for London.
:01:39. > :01:41.And with me, as always, the best and the brightest political panel in the
:01:42. > :01:43.business - Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. They'll be
:01:44. > :01:49.throwing metaphorical rotten eggs into the twittersphere.
:01:50. > :01:52.First this morning - Gerry Adams, President of Sinn Fein, has spent a
:01:53. > :01:55.fourth night in police custody after he was arrested in connection with
:01:56. > :02:08.the killing of Jean McConville more than 40 years ago. Sinn Fein has
:02:09. > :02:11.claimed that the arrest is politically motivated coming, as it
:02:12. > :02:14.does, during local and European election campaigns. Northern
:02:15. > :02:17.Ireland's deputy first minister, Martin McGuinness, has indicated he
:02:18. > :02:20.might review the party's support for policing in the province if Gerry
:02:21. > :02:23.Adams is charged. The Jean McConville murder was one of the
:02:24. > :02:25.most notorious cases of the Troubles.
:02:26. > :02:32.The widowed mother of ten was kidnapped from her home in December
:02:33. > :02:37.1972, never to be seen alive again. The IRA denied involvement but in
:02:38. > :02:44.1999 admitted it had murdered her and several others, known as the
:02:45. > :02:47.Disappeared. Before his death, the former IRA commander Brendan Hughes
:02:48. > :02:55.pointed the finger at Gerry Adams, claiming:
:02:56. > :03:09.In April this year, either Bell was charged with aiding and abetting the
:03:10. > :03:14.murder. -- Ivor Bell. Gerry Adams has always insisted he is innocent
:03:15. > :03:18.of any part in the abduction and killing all burial of Mrs
:03:19. > :03:21.McConville. We were hoping to speak to the
:03:22. > :03:24.Northern Ireland Secretary, Theresa Villiers, but having agreed to do an
:03:25. > :03:31.interview with us this morning, she pulled out. But we are joined from
:03:32. > :03:36.Belfast by Sinn Fein's Alex Maskey. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. And
:03:37. > :03:48.the police just doing their job by questioning Gerry Adams? Gerry Adams
:03:49. > :03:52.said publicly some time ago that he was available to speak to the
:03:53. > :03:58.police, but that is not what this is about at the moment, because what we
:03:59. > :04:02.have here is clearly evidence in our mind of political interference in
:04:03. > :04:06.what should be due process. Gerry Adams made it clear some time ago he
:04:07. > :04:12.wanted to speak to the police, it was available at any time, and yet
:04:13. > :04:16.that request was not taken up until three weeks into an election and we
:04:17. > :04:22.believe that was deliberately orchestrated by a small number of
:04:23. > :04:29.people. What evidence can you present this morning that proves
:04:30. > :04:35.that claim? The direct circumstances Gerry Adams finds himself in at the
:04:36. > :04:46.moment, take that in stark contrast when they have dealt with members of
:04:47. > :04:54.the British Army for instance... That is just circumstantial. The
:04:55. > :04:59.PSNI know that the soldiers involved in that and a number of other
:05:00. > :05:05.high-profile killings of citizens here, and not one of those people
:05:06. > :05:10.has been arrested. In fact any of the people who were interviewed were
:05:11. > :05:20.interviewed by request. There was a stark contrast, in terms of how they
:05:21. > :05:25.have dealt with the British military involving state killings. We haven't
:05:26. > :05:31.got too much time. Sinn Fein said it would review its support for the
:05:32. > :05:35.PSNI if Gerry Adams is charged. That sounds like political interference
:05:36. > :05:42.in the police process. It's not because we have a clear mandate from
:05:43. > :05:46.the people who elect us. Policing has been an important part of the
:05:47. > :05:53.peace process here for many years, Sinn Fein plays an important role in
:05:54. > :05:58.local policing partnerships. We negotiate to make sure we have
:05:59. > :06:04.powers transferred here to elected representatives in the north. It is
:06:05. > :06:09.a long way to go before we have policing highly accountable, and
:06:10. > :06:26.making sure they deliver a very impartial service. How will he react
:06:27. > :06:32.if Gerry Adams is charged? I am still trying to get a clear answer.
:06:33. > :06:38.If Gerry Adams is charged, will you withdraw support for the Northern
:06:39. > :06:43.Ireland police service? We view this as a serious situation and a serious
:06:44. > :06:48.ongoing situation and we will monitor how this pans out. We have a
:06:49. > :06:53.very important role to play to support the police service here. We
:06:54. > :06:59.have done consistently, worked with them on a daily basis, but we will
:07:00. > :07:04.not accept political interference by a small number of people in the
:07:05. > :07:12.police who are undermining the police. We will not accept political
:07:13. > :07:17.policing. If there was evidence, and I emphasise the word if, because we
:07:18. > :07:21.have seen none, but if there were evidence to justify Gerry Adams
:07:22. > :07:26.being charged, why should he not be charged? It is my understanding from
:07:27. > :07:32.the family of Gerry Adams that there has not been a single shred of
:07:33. > :07:41.evidence put forward. I understand that, but if there was evidence, why
:07:42. > :07:45.should he not be charged? You put that caveat yourself and then you
:07:46. > :07:50.expect me to speculate, there is no way I will do that. The fact of the
:07:51. > :07:55.matter is there hasn't been one single shred of evidence put to
:07:56. > :07:59.Gerry Adams in the last few days, in fact what has been put to him is a
:08:00. > :08:04.range of issues of newspaper cuttings, books, statements made
:08:05. > :08:07.from people, including from people who didn't want their statements
:08:08. > :08:17.released until they have died. who didn't want their statements
:08:18. > :08:25.was charged, again I emphasise the word if, does the police process
:08:26. > :08:29.fall apart? The police process is a fragile entity, it requires work and
:08:30. > :08:31.we have been saying this publicly and privately with the Irish and
:08:32. > :08:45.British and privately with the Irish and
:08:46. > :08:48.process has to be nurtured and developed. We are not out of the
:08:49. > :08:53.woods yet. From a Republican point of view we have been working flat
:08:54. > :09:02.out. I just wanted a quick answer to my question, is a yes or no? What
:09:03. > :09:06.question I asking me? Is the peace process in jeopardy? It is fragile
:09:07. > :09:13.and I am not going to have words put into my mouth but I don't want to
:09:14. > :09:19.use. It has to be worked out and nurtured. Thank you for joining us.
:09:20. > :09:24.Nick Watt, you were a Northern Ireland correspondent like myself in
:09:25. > :09:29.days gone by. Where is this going to go? It shows how challenging the
:09:30. > :09:33.peace process is because on the one hand you have the unspeakable pain
:09:34. > :09:38.of the McConville family, but you also have the danger of not having
:09:39. > :09:43.mechanisms to deal with the past. South Africa is a good example, you
:09:44. > :09:47.have to have some mechanism to deal with the past because if you don't,
:09:48. > :09:58.you are going to have, as Sinn Fein have now, someone in a police cell
:09:59. > :10:01.but you don't have the arrests of the Bloody Sunday soldiers.
:10:02. > :10:09.Paramilitary prisoners were released after two years... We have seen no
:10:10. > :10:15.action against somebody accused of the Hyde Park bombings, it is not a
:10:16. > :10:23.one-way street. We have the decommissioning of IRA weapons by
:10:24. > :10:26.the IRA, therefore destroying crucial evidence. You have these
:10:27. > :10:31.inconsistencies because you don't have an mechanism for dealing with
:10:32. > :10:36.the past, but doing that is really difficult because of the pain of
:10:37. > :10:41.real people. Don't you get a feeling that here in London they are hoping
:10:42. > :10:45.he will not be charged? Definitely because it would be nice if
:10:46. > :10:53.everything went away, but the civil case of the family is taken out of
:10:54. > :10:56.the hands of the police. You can see here a real failure in Westminster
:10:57. > :11:05.to see this as anything other than settled. David Cameron we know sees
:11:06. > :11:09.himself as a chairman. I was speaking to a friend in Northern
:11:10. > :11:14.Ireland who said he has never met Gerry Adams and I think this is very
:11:15. > :11:19.revealing. They consider this as a settled issue that will not trouble
:11:20. > :11:24.Westminster again. It would be, but the relatives of the disappeared
:11:25. > :11:27.don't want it to be settled. This points to the reality that the
:11:28. > :11:33.Belfast agreement probably had to be done, but the moral price at which
:11:34. > :11:38.it was purchased was far greater than we were willing to admit during
:11:39. > :11:43.the euphoria. For a country that prides itself by the rule of law to
:11:44. > :11:51.tolerate the early release of prisoners and former pal and
:11:52. > :11:58.military -- paramilitaries, I think was a very serious matter. As for
:11:59. > :12:02.the PSNI, it only exists because its predecessor failed to command the
:12:03. > :12:09.confidence of the nationalist community. It is a very big deal if
:12:10. > :12:21.even the PSNI ends up falling into the same trap. We have to is leave
:12:22. > :12:23.it there I'm afraid. It was the Conservative's local election
:12:24. > :12:26.campaign launch on Friday, and what did David Cameron focus on? Burning
:12:27. > :12:29.local issues like the state of our roads, rubbish collection or care of
:12:30. > :12:32.the elderly? No. It was Europe. The Prime Minister re-iterated again his
:12:33. > :12:36.promise of an in-out referendum on our membership of the EU in 2017.
:12:37. > :12:38.And it's being reported this morning that he will share a platform with
:12:39. > :12:43.Nigel Farage in a pre-general election debate. Here's what the
:12:44. > :12:51.UKIP leader had to say about the issue when he was on the Marr Show
:12:52. > :12:55.this morning with Ed Miliband. David Cameron very often makes these vague
:12:56. > :13:01.promises, then doesn't deliver afterwards. I don't think he has any
:13:02. > :13:08.intention of allowing me into any of these debates. Perhaps Ed Miliband
:13:09. > :13:13.wants to debate? We have got to have the TV debates as we did join the
:13:14. > :13:18.last general election. I think David Cameron is doing everything he can
:13:19. > :13:23.to wriggle out of them. It is up to the broadcasters but whether they
:13:24. > :13:34.invite Nigel. My main desire is that the debates go ahead. We are joined
:13:35. > :13:41.now by Grant Shapps. Will he be included? The debates were not
:13:42. > :13:44.without problems, they took place during the campaign period and
:13:45. > :13:50.disrupted the flow of the campaign, taking it out of the regions, people
:13:51. > :13:54.getting to speak to the leaders so a longer period for that would be
:13:55. > :13:59.helpful. I think they are good idea and they should go ahead, but all of
:14:00. > :14:05.the negotiation about who is involved is yet to happen. So it is
:14:06. > :14:10.not a done deal that Nigel Farage will be included? That needs to be
:14:11. > :14:15.negotiated with the TV companies. The Conservatives believe we should
:14:16. > :14:23.have debates, but exactly the format and the timing, all of the -- that
:14:24. > :14:29.will be debated in the autumn, but first we have European elections,
:14:30. > :14:36.the Queen 's speech and a Scottish referendum. The local election
:14:37. > :14:46.campaign was launched on Friday. Why did you talk more about Europe than
:14:47. > :14:50.local councils? Both are important. The local elections are critically
:14:51. > :14:56.important for people, their local services. It is easy to forget, for
:14:57. > :15:00.example, that the council tax has been largely frozen since this
:15:01. > :15:04.Government came to power, a big contrast to Dublin under the
:15:05. > :15:11.previous Labour government. So why did you go on and on about Europe?
:15:12. > :15:20.Let me show you the poster used to launch your local election campaign.
:15:21. > :15:24.There it is, and in-out referendum on Europe, the day of the local
:15:25. > :15:30.elections, where is the word local? Is it in small print? I hear what
:15:31. > :15:34.you're saying, I am happy to be here to talk about the local elections.
:15:35. > :15:39.But you are right, they are on the same day, and not many people know
:15:40. > :15:43.that only by voting conservative can you get an in-out referendum. --
:15:44. > :15:51.Conservative. UKIP cannot deliver, we can, it is the same date, so
:15:52. > :15:54.people... This was the launch of the local election campaign. Why does
:15:55. > :15:58.the Prime Minister have to keep on promising something he has already
:15:59. > :16:06.promised? The actual referendum would be in 2017. He promised it
:16:07. > :16:10.before, he keeps repeating it because he knows people don't really
:16:11. > :16:14.trust him. I think it is a question of the fact that, actually, unless
:16:15. > :16:19.you remind people that the pledges there, that the only way to get an
:16:20. > :16:23.in-out referendum is to vote for it, this is a critical moment at
:16:24. > :16:29.which we need people to vote for that referendum if they want it. It
:16:30. > :16:33.is not the case, as I saw this morning, being said by Nigel Farage,
:16:34. > :16:37.that a referendum was promised before and not delivered. There was
:16:38. > :16:45.no referendum in the last manifesto. There will be in the next one. There
:16:46. > :16:53.was a cast-iron guarantee, in the Sun in 2006. Let's just clear that
:16:54. > :16:58.up... Once the Lisbon Treaty... In the Sun article, he said, we will
:16:59. > :17:02.have a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. Clearly, because that treaty
:17:03. > :17:07.had been passed before the general election, it is difficult to have a
:17:08. > :17:14.referendum on something in the past. We joined Europe in the 1970s,
:17:15. > :17:17.having a referendum on that! Look, that is about the future. Our
:17:18. > :17:23.relationship with Europe is absolutely critical. Most people in
:17:24. > :17:28.this country feel, I was not old enough to vote in that referendum,
:17:29. > :17:31.most of those who voted, they voted for a Common Market, that is not
:17:32. > :17:39.what we have got. We want to continue the work we have been doing
:17:40. > :17:43.in the EU Budget, what did UKIP do? They voted against it. We want more
:17:44. > :17:46.of those powers brought home, and we will put it to a referendum, and
:17:47. > :17:52.people will have to vote Conservative to get it. We have been
:17:53. > :17:56.looking at new research, almost two thirds of Conservative members are
:17:57. > :18:04.considering voting for UKIP, almost two thirds. I have a simple message
:18:05. > :18:13.here, which is this. If you vote for UKIP... Can we have it up? 30% are
:18:14. > :18:17.likely, 30% are possible. That is why it is important we are making
:18:18. > :18:21.these arguments. If you vote for UKIP, you are voting to take us
:18:22. > :18:27.further away from returning powers to this country, further from a
:18:28. > :18:30.referendum. It is support for Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister,
:18:31. > :18:35.and he will do exactly what Labour have always done - hand away powers,
:18:36. > :18:39.and away the rebate for nothing in return, giving Europe even more so
:18:40. > :18:43.over the day-to-day affairs in Britain. Why are so many people
:18:44. > :18:48.considering voting UKIP? It is to hold your feet to the fire, they do
:18:49. > :18:52.not trust you on a referendum, so they will vote UKIP to force you to
:18:53. > :18:57.tap in your line. We have a very tough line. If I had said four years
:18:58. > :19:02.ago that this government would manage to cut the overall EU
:19:03. > :19:06.budget, would take us out of the bailout fund that Labour got us
:19:07. > :19:10.into, passing a law that no more powers can go to Europe without a
:19:11. > :19:15.referendum, if I had said that, people would say, I do not believe
:19:16. > :19:18.it will happen. Not only have we done these things, we are promising
:19:19. > :19:22.and in-out referendum, and the only way to get it is to vote
:19:23. > :19:26.Conservative. Nigel Farage has said, we can't change anything in
:19:27. > :19:31.Europe, and it is no wonder that the president of the European Commission
:19:32. > :19:36.has said, we love having these UKIP MEPs, because they don't turn up and
:19:37. > :19:42.vote, apart from when they vote against the cut in the budget. It
:19:43. > :19:46.goes beyond UKIP in your party, because this research also showed
:19:47. > :19:51.that those Conservative members most likely to vote for UKIP, they said
:19:52. > :19:55.they do not feel valued or respected by their own leadership, and they
:19:56. > :20:01.regard David Cameron as ideological eat more remote from them than UKIP.
:20:02. > :20:10.What I would say is look at that list... Let me take that step
:20:11. > :20:18.further. What people need our series solutions to serious problems. When
:20:19. > :20:24.people vote for a UKIP MEP, I will say, which one of the 40% of the
:20:25. > :20:28.MEPs who got in for UKIP last time are you voting for, the ones above
:20:29. > :20:33.left or defected, the ones have gone to jail? 40% have ended up not
:20:34. > :20:37.delivering. People have a right to know what to expect when they vote
:20:38. > :20:41.in these elections. They can look at our record at home, and this goes to
:20:42. > :20:47.the point you have raised about what we have done in Britain to get this
:20:48. > :20:50.economy back on track, recover from Labour's recession. We are prepared
:20:51. > :20:58.to take those decisions in Europe as well. Presumably, active
:20:59. > :21:03.Conservative members, they know that, so why do they not feel valued
:21:04. > :21:07.by the leadership? I spend time going up and down the country
:21:08. > :21:14.meeting Conservative members, and they are on the doorstep, last
:21:15. > :21:19.weekend 150 out in Enfield campaigning for the European and
:21:20. > :21:24.local elections... Why are they keen on UKIP? When I meet somebody who
:21:25. > :21:31.says that, not necessarily a member... Have you met members of
:21:32. > :21:40.say they will vote UKIP? No, but a vote for UKIP is... Do not do it,
:21:41. > :21:46.you will end up with Labour having more control, handing away powers to
:21:47. > :21:52.Europe. 51-year-old meeting members who say they will vote UKIP, you
:21:53. > :21:57.must be out of touch. -- if you are not meeting members. Some of your
:21:58. > :22:01.members are thinking of voting UKIP. I spend huge amount of time
:22:02. > :22:06.travelling around, I just told you about this action day in Enfield,
:22:07. > :22:11.where we had an enormous turnout. Those members were on the doorsteps
:22:12. > :22:16.pointing out that you can only get reform in Europe by voting
:22:17. > :22:22.Conservative. Labour and the Lib Dems will not deliver, UKIP can't,
:22:23. > :22:25.Conservatives will. You have not got that message across, because a
:22:26. > :22:35.YouGov poll shows, on Europe, who has the best policies? Tories 18%,
:22:36. > :22:40.Labour 19%, UKIP 27%. On the economy, Tories 27%, Labour 23, UKIP
:22:41. > :22:47.4. Why don't you shut up about Europe and talk about the economy?
:22:48. > :22:51.Look, on the 27th of May, we have European elections, as well as local
:22:52. > :22:54.elections. If I don't talk about the European elections, you would say
:22:55. > :22:58.what you said at the beginning about not talking about the local
:22:59. > :23:02.elections! These are serious elections, and the point I am tried
:23:03. > :23:06.to make is that the issues at stake are not peripheral, they are not
:23:07. > :23:10.unimportant. Our MEPs have been battling to cut red tape from a
:23:11. > :23:13.European level on small businesses, the same thing this government has
:23:14. > :23:16.been doing for small businesses domestic league, where for example
:23:17. > :23:22.every small business owner watching this show knows they have got ?2000
:23:23. > :23:25.back in employment announced on national insurance contributions. We
:23:26. > :23:31.are doing it at home, we are doing it in Europe, and it is important to
:23:32. > :23:44.tie that together. Ireland that Mr Cameron saying, you should stop
:23:45. > :23:54.banging on about Europe... -- I remember. This is before the last
:23:55. > :23:59.general election, as in days for the Lib Dems, 18%. Even then, you didn't
:24:00. > :24:04.win the election, and now you are only three or four points ahead, it
:24:05. > :24:10.doesn't look good for you, does it? Even then, the poll did not turn out
:24:11. > :24:15.to be what it was on the day. No, that is what happens, that is the
:24:16. > :24:17.voting intentions now! You are in a worse position than a year before
:24:18. > :24:25.the last election, which you didn't win. We are almost proving the point
:24:26. > :24:29.that you can take a clip at any moment in time, not sounding like a
:24:30. > :24:34.politician, but the only poll that matters is on the day. In just over
:24:35. > :24:40.a year's time, people will have a completely different picture to look
:24:41. > :24:44.at than these opinion polls. We have an economy from being a basket
:24:45. > :24:49.case, the great Labour recession knocking 7% of this economy, hurting
:24:50. > :24:54.every family, to a point where we the fastest-growing economy in the
:24:55. > :24:57.developed world. In a year's time, I hope people will see that we are the
:24:58. > :25:02.people who've taken the difficult decisions, got the economy to the
:25:03. > :25:05.right place, more security for you and your family. Do not give the car
:25:06. > :25:10.keys back to the people who crashed it in the first place. If I had a
:25:11. > :25:15.pound for every time I have heard that! It is clearly not getting
:25:16. > :25:22.through. On the Pfizer attempted of AstraZeneca, Mr Miliband called this
:25:23. > :25:27.morning for a tougher public interest test such big takeovers. Do
:25:28. > :25:33.you agree with that or not? Let me be absolutely clear, if there is any
:25:34. > :25:41.kind of joining, we are in favour of British jobs, British aren't deep,
:25:42. > :25:54.expanding our pharmaceutical sector. -- R But what Mr Mallon and wants
:25:55. > :25:58.to do with rent caps, he is anti-business. -- Mr Miliband. He
:25:59. > :26:11.wants to take us back to the bad old those. -- bad old days. Should there
:26:12. > :26:15.be a bigger public interest test? We have seen some takeovers that people
:26:16. > :26:20.have criticised, but others, like Bentley, Land Rover, which have been
:26:21. > :26:25.very successful. Should there be a tougher test?! We will have tests
:26:26. > :26:29.that ensured this get-together becomes a great Anglo-American
:26:30. > :26:34.project, or it doesn't happen, but the Miliband approach is simply to
:26:35. > :26:38.be anti-business, anti-jobs and anti-job security. Grant Shapps,
:26:39. > :26:41.thank you. A challenging week for the Liberal
:26:42. > :26:45.Democrats with a local election campaign overshadowed by another row
:26:46. > :26:51.with the Conservatives about knife crime. Adam has spent the day with
:26:52. > :26:55.Nick Clegg on the campaign trail. How nice! Nick Clegg is taking me on
:26:56. > :26:59.a political mini break to the Cotswolds. Yes, we are getting the
:27:00. > :27:04.train. He wants to highlight what his party is doing in local
:27:05. > :27:09.government, and a personal passion of his in Europe. Graham Watson, the
:27:10. > :27:15.Lib Dem MEP for the south-west, has been running a campaign to have
:27:16. > :27:19.prunes recognised as a laxative. Is that Lib Dems battling for Britain
:27:20. > :27:23.in Europe? It is not our front page manifesto commitment! It is one of
:27:24. > :27:31.many things that Graham does, he does many other things. In fact, he
:27:32. > :27:36.is a good example of an MEP who took a pioneering role, for instance, in
:27:37. > :27:42.making sure... There is the proven world, but also the crime-fighting
:27:43. > :27:46.role. -- prune. He has done work to make sure that when British
:27:47. > :27:52.criminals flee justice, we can bring them back. And he has promoted
:27:53. > :27:55.prunes! First stop, a gorgeous country pub, but it turns out
:27:56. > :28:02.everyone is a journalist or a very on message activist. Dark days,
:28:03. > :28:07.being a Lib Dem in the last few years? Strangely not. If you find
:28:08. > :28:10.you are a Lib Dem deep down, you do not get that disheartened, because
:28:11. > :28:14.you know that, locally, you are doing so well for the people that
:28:15. > :28:19.you live next door to that, actually, I find I am almost
:28:20. > :28:23.impervious to what happens on a national level. I am mayor of
:28:24. > :28:28.Cirencester. Have you taken any leadership lessons from Nick Clegg,
:28:29. > :28:33.inspiring new in your leadership of Cirencester? I think what he has
:28:34. > :28:37.demonstrated his patience. It has been a tough time, he has taken a
:28:38. > :28:43.lot of flak, and as the mayor of a town, lots of people agree with you
:28:44. > :28:47.and a fair few don't. You are a full on mayor, he is just a Deputy Prime
:28:48. > :28:53.Minister, do you outrank him? I don't think so, he is in government,
:28:54. > :28:59.I am not. So our there any normal people in here? We are from
:29:00. > :29:06.Swindon, you cannot get more abnormal. Are you a big fan of his?
:29:07. > :29:11.No! What has he done wrong? I don't believe in his views at all. Where
:29:12. > :29:20.has he got to? Nigel Farage would have had a pint! At this time in the
:29:21. > :29:24.morning a copy was more appropriate. I have no time for a drink of any
:29:25. > :29:28.kind, because now we are off to look at a local traffic blackspot. This
:29:29. > :29:35.is amazing, like a Lib Dem election leaflet brought to life, Lib Dems
:29:36. > :29:39.pointing at a road. High-vis jackets! Next we had to giggle full
:29:40. > :29:44.bath, but there will be no Regency sightseeing for us, oh no, Nick is
:29:45. > :29:54.taking us to an abandoned wilderness. We have just had a
:29:55. > :29:58.health and safety briefing, we have been told to look out for
:29:59. > :30:02.dive-bombing seagulls and an angry fox. That is the sort of thing Nick
:30:03. > :30:07.Clegg has to put up with. He wants to talk about the economy but he has
:30:08. > :30:13.to dodge the day's beat new story, letters leaked by a Tory suggesting
:30:14. > :30:23.that Lib Dems are soft on knife crime. Isn't that a new kind of
:30:24. > :30:27.warfare? I just think it is silly. They may think they are clever by
:30:28. > :30:38.catching some headlines but they are not helping people who worry about
:30:39. > :30:43.knife crime, like I do. We work together... Just like the
:30:44. > :30:47.Coalition! This is a co-working space where different businesses
:30:48. > :30:53.share the same office. My time with the Deputy Prime Minister is drawing
:30:54. > :30:56.to a close. We haven't talked about the most important story of the
:30:57. > :31:05.week, that you were voted the best looking party leader and the most
:31:06. > :31:09.likely to be a good cook. Right, this is news to me and I can
:31:10. > :31:14.guarantee you that my scepticism of opinion polls has just been
:31:15. > :31:20.confirmed. Just as well because the more serious polls don't look great
:31:21. > :31:27.for him or his party. Goodbye, and thanks for the offer of a ride
:31:28. > :31:32.home! He is still walking. Malcolm Bruce
:31:33. > :31:38.joins us now. According to Lib Dem briefing documents, you are likely
:31:39. > :31:43.to choose -- lose a big chunk of your MEPs. If you lose a lot, what
:31:44. > :31:47.would that say about a party that boasts of its pro-Europe
:31:48. > :31:54.credentials? It would be disappointing because we have the
:31:55. > :31:59.most hard-working MEPs. The worry that we have is that people think
:32:00. > :32:07.the European Parliament is not important but it takes decisions
:32:08. > :32:11.that affect us. They would be disappointing for Britain as well as
:32:12. > :32:16.the Liberal Democrats. Isn't the problem that the more you bang on
:32:17. > :32:22.about your pro-European credentials, the more you slip in the polls? I do
:32:23. > :32:33.think so, we have two weeks to go and we are campaigning extremely
:32:34. > :32:37.hard. You are forced in the polls. I can tell you there are people out
:32:38. > :32:43.there who do believe Britain should stay in the EU and they are worried
:32:44. > :32:48.that other parties will take us out. The Liberal Democrats are clear, we
:32:49. > :32:52.want to stay in, we will work for reform and do it effectively. If you
:32:53. > :32:59.lose the Liberal Democrats, Britain's influence in Europe will
:33:00. > :33:03.be weakened. Your track record in Europe shows you have been
:33:04. > :33:10.spectacularly wrong again and again. In your 2009 manifesto you said the
:33:11. > :33:15.European Central Bank and the euro have been tried and tested over ten
:33:16. > :33:21.years providing a clear picture of the benefits of Eurozone membership
:33:22. > :33:25.and that proved to be nonsense. It was nonsense everywhere. Every
:33:26. > :33:30.developed bank in the world was tried and tested and failed. Europe
:33:31. > :33:35.may not be perfect, but the question people have to decide is if we are
:33:36. > :33:42.going to leave Europe and be isolated on RM, or use our influence
:33:43. > :33:47.to reform it from inside. We have allies, you work with them, that is
:33:48. > :33:53.something the Lib Dems do better than any other parties. Your 2004
:33:54. > :33:58.manifesto, you claim that being outside the euro would lead to job
:33:59. > :34:06.losses and reduced prosperity. You were just plain wrong, weren't you?
:34:07. > :34:13.Yes, but the reason is that to some extent the euro did not observe any
:34:14. > :34:17.rules and regulations when it was set up. That is why we never
:34:18. > :34:24.recommended Britain should join at the outset because the criteria had
:34:25. > :34:29.not been met. In 2001 Nick Clegg was writing to the Financial Times...
:34:30. > :34:36.Your track record is important. He wrote that the Tisch monetary policy
:34:37. > :34:40.is not all it is cracked up to be. Britain would gain greater control
:34:41. > :34:50.over its affairs by joining the euro. How wrong can he be? We have
:34:51. > :34:55.always argued that the currency had to abide by strict criteria. It
:34:56. > :35:01.hasn't done so and that is one of the reasons it has failed. We
:35:02. > :35:06.recognise there is no future for Britain joining the euro and we are
:35:07. > :35:14.not advocating it. Lets put your 2010 manifesto on the screen. I
:35:15. > :35:20.didn't say it was not our long-term interest. If Europe succeeds as an
:35:21. > :35:28.entity, if the euro becomes one of the world leading currencies, there
:35:29. > :35:33.will come a point when it may be justified. In the circumstances we
:35:34. > :35:37.are in the moment, there is no recommended timescale. Let's get
:35:38. > :35:43.this right. Despite the Eurozone crisis which has cost millions of
:35:44. > :35:47.jobs, countries that were teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, the
:35:48. > :35:53.Eurozone now facing stagnation and some countries on the brink of
:35:54. > :35:58.deflation, you still won't rule out Britain joining? We are ruling it
:35:59. > :36:02.out in the foreseeable future. You can miss the point that we are
:36:03. > :36:07.working as a coalition partner in government that has secured recovery
:36:08. > :36:12.for the UK, and working as Liberal Democrats in the parliament that
:36:13. > :36:17.have cut back the European budget in cooperation with others. What would
:36:18. > :36:25.the world look like if it were right for Britain to join the euro? You
:36:26. > :36:29.have 27 states at the moment, with too many countries still struggling
:36:30. > :36:33.to meet the criteria so until you have a strong and cohesive enough
:36:34. > :36:39.single Eurozone in which all the countries can meet that criteria,
:36:40. > :36:44.Britain is better off out. So a more centralised Eurozone, that is what
:36:45. > :36:49.you would like Britain to join? No, because it can only happen by
:36:50. > :36:56.consent. Any circumstances in which any further powers would be
:36:57. > :37:01.transferred from the UK to the EU, we would support a referendum. You
:37:02. > :37:04.have just said that for the Eurozone to work, it has to be more
:37:05. > :37:11.centralised and you said if that happens, that is what Britain would
:37:12. > :37:15.join. I didn't say that, I said it would require the consent of all
:37:16. > :37:22.member states to agree to the criteria. We certainly do not
:37:23. > :37:28.envisage joining in the foreseeable future. Since you are the proud
:37:29. > :37:35.party of in, why weren't you just give us a referendum on in or out?
:37:36. > :37:39.Because it has to have a context. What David Cameron is doing is
:37:40. > :37:44.dangerous because I think the major players like Britain and France are
:37:45. > :37:48.not keen on the idea of being bullied into reforms on the
:37:49. > :37:51.instigation of just one member state which is threatening possibility to
:37:52. > :38:01.withdraw. They will have to agree to rules... Just have it now. Do you
:38:02. > :38:05.want in or out? To have a referendum against no background is to put it
:38:06. > :38:10.out of context. We are in the middle of a crisis, a year away from the
:38:11. > :38:19.general election. We have made it clear... You said we are in the
:38:20. > :38:25.middle of the Eurozone crisis? So we are not in the middle of it? What's
:38:26. > :38:29.the middle? The reality is that the Western world has gone through a
:38:30. > :38:34.deep crisis. The UK is coming out of it, the Eurozone is coming out of
:38:35. > :38:40.it. Greece have been able to borrow on the markets in recent weeks which
:38:41. > :38:43.is a sign of success. It is in our interest is the Eurozone succeeds
:38:44. > :38:47.and recovers and we should be part of it but not necessarily on the
:38:48. > :38:51.same conditions as everyone else. The Liberal Democrats work with
:38:52. > :38:59.others to deliver Britain's interests and if they are not there,
:39:00. > :39:02.their interests will be undermined. You are watching Sunday Politics. We
:39:03. > :39:08.say goodbye to viewers in Scotland now. Coming up in 20 minutes, the
:39:09. > :39:17.week ahead but first the Sunday Politics where you are.
:39:18. > :39:23.Welcome to the show where this week we are focusing on the European
:39:24. > :39:27.elections. We have five candidates standing in the capital this time,
:39:28. > :39:35.Baroness Sarah Ludford for the Liberal Democrats, Mary Harney ball
:39:36. > :39:43.for Labour, Jean Lambert for the Greens, and Miss Batten for UKIP. We
:39:44. > :39:54.will hear from you in a moment after this. There is no election quite
:39:55. > :40:08.like it in the world. 751 MEPs are elected, it makes the European
:40:09. > :40:14.election the largest on earth. We spent 90 minutes in Oxford Circus
:40:15. > :40:22.trying to find someone who could name their local MEP. I don't know.
:40:23. > :40:25.I'm not sure. I don't even know what an MEP is. To be fair I don't think
:40:26. > :40:32.Londoners are given enough information. When it comes to
:40:33. > :40:38.Europe, it is an unnecessary distraction. In fact, Londoners
:40:39. > :40:45.don't have an MEP, they have eight. The capital is one giant
:40:46. > :40:51.constituency at the moment represented by eight, but what they
:40:52. > :40:58.do? They governed the rules of the free movement of goods, services,
:40:59. > :41:02.capital and labour. Regulations on the free movement of people, people
:41:03. > :41:10.who come here from the rest of the EU is governed by EU law. With much
:41:11. > :41:14.of the population unsure about how the European elections work or what
:41:15. > :41:18.the European Parliament does, the job of parties to convince you why
:41:19. > :41:22.you should vote for them might be tougher than any other election.
:41:23. > :41:27.None of you will be a stranger to that sense of cynicism by members of
:41:28. > :41:33.the public or the media indeed, but how do you address it? How helpful
:41:34. > :41:39.as it when Boris Johnson is saying these elections are sham? Whatever
:41:40. > :41:48.people think of the EU, the European Parliament has equal power so when
:41:49. > :41:54.people are affected by any issues where Europe initiates the laws,
:41:55. > :42:03.they come to us. Is he right when he calls it a sham, pointless
:42:04. > :42:10.elections? These people sit in Parliament with equal powers... In
:42:11. > :42:14.fact Boris who himself has been to Brussels and recognises the power of
:42:15. > :42:18.the European Parliament. So he is wrong to describe it as a sham and
:42:19. > :42:24.bloated and drawing attention to the fact that no one knows the name of
:42:25. > :42:31.their MEPs? Boris has come to talk to us about financial regulation.
:42:32. > :42:36.Mary, what do you do about this continuing sense of cynicism? I
:42:37. > :42:41.think it is more that people don't know enough about the European
:42:42. > :42:48.Parliament and how the institutions work. I think that is the fault of
:42:49. > :42:52.all of us. I think what we do is very underreported. Programmes like
:42:53. > :42:56.this one are quite rare and I very much welcome the opportunity to talk
:42:57. > :43:03.about it. We don't see much in the news and I don't think we do was
:43:04. > :43:07.much as record to tell people about what we do. I would like to make
:43:08. > :43:12.another point. You go out on the streets of London and you ask them
:43:13. > :43:15.who their MEP is and they don't know, if you have done that same
:43:16. > :43:22.exercise with the House of Commons they probably wouldn't know. Lets
:43:23. > :43:27.continue this stream of thought. What have you done to justify, if
:43:28. > :43:33.you had to pick out a single achievement and justify it as you
:43:34. > :43:38.being re-elected? One of the single biggest achievements we did as a
:43:39. > :43:42.group was to push the European budget towards cuts, we cut 30
:43:43. > :43:46.billion off the long-term budget and we focused it much more on things
:43:47. > :43:52.that would create jobs like investment in research and so on,
:43:53. > :43:56.away from the old baggage. Personally I do a lot of work on
:43:57. > :44:03.cross-border police co-operation and I desperately want the UK to stay
:44:04. > :44:08.plugged into that. I am also investing in the European arrest
:44:09. > :44:14.warrant. Let's concentrate on your own position for the time being.
:44:15. > :44:18.Jean Lambert, we know the Greens focus on environmental issues and no
:44:19. > :44:23.one will dispute that. You have been elected on that basis in the past,
:44:24. > :44:29.but when people seek air-quality not improving in the capital, they begin
:44:30. > :44:35.to wonder whether it is not very effective. If you are not looking at
:44:36. > :44:39.air-quality in the capital, it is certainly a big problem here. The
:44:40. > :44:44.only reason in the sense people are where it needs fixing is because you
:44:45. > :44:48.have European Union legislation on it. It is the very fact that the
:44:49. > :44:53.Mayor of London is dragging his feet about meeting the targets that have
:44:54. > :44:57.been agreed, cooperation of the Parliament and the national
:44:58. > :45:02.governments, that is the Porsche and that is what gives people of London
:45:03. > :45:06.the tools to also begin to push in terms of, you are not meeting your
:45:07. > :45:20.targets, you are not meeting your legislation. What is your biggest
:45:21. > :45:24.achievement? Can I come back to... Answer that one first. With the aid
:45:25. > :45:29.of my colleagues in UKIP, we have put the idea of leaving Europe on
:45:30. > :45:33.the map. I have spent the last five years concentrating on opposing the
:45:34. > :45:37.kind of stuff that Sarah Ludford likes, the European arrest warrant,
:45:38. > :45:41.because any British person can be taken to a foreign prison on the
:45:42. > :45:48.strength of a piece of paper and a British court cannot protect them
:45:49. > :45:53.and happy as corpus does not apply. I was going to ask you about that,
:45:54. > :46:00.the Conservative Mayor of London calls it a sham, what do you say to
:46:01. > :46:03.that? We don't want to be in the EU at all, but Boris wants to replace
:46:04. > :46:10.it with delegates from the national parliament, and that is because they
:46:11. > :46:14.know what will happen when UKIP gets more votes, so it was a self
:46:15. > :46:18.interested policy. Let's move on to the question of immigration, when
:46:19. > :46:26.new address the question of Romanians, body Aryans, the future
:46:27. > :46:35.couple of years, how hard would it be for you to win voters' trust? --
:46:36. > :46:44.Bulgarians. Boaters do recognise that, and so do we. -- voters. Ed
:46:45. > :46:47.Miliband has admitted we made mistakes and we will not make them
:46:48. > :46:54.in the future, and that is clear in the Labour Party manifesto for the
:46:55. > :47:01.European elections. We are clear on that. So you would agree with and
:47:02. > :47:05.support what the Conservatives are doing in terms of controlling access
:47:06. > :47:10.to benefits and so on? We are saying that we will make sure that people
:47:11. > :47:14.cannot claim unemployment benefit here until after six months, whereas
:47:15. > :47:18.it is three months at the moment, and we don't think child benefit and
:47:19. > :47:23.tax credits should be paid to families abroad. I would also say
:47:24. > :47:27.that, in London, we have a very diverse community, as you can see
:47:28. > :47:32.from us sitting around a table here, and it is important to recognise
:47:33. > :47:40.that and how necessary it has become to London to be diverse, and how
:47:41. > :47:43.advantageous it is for us. We wouldn't have won the Olympics had
:47:44. > :47:49.we not had the diverse community that we do have. Your party is
:47:50. > :47:54.supporting an amnesty, I imagine, believing in the value of
:47:55. > :48:01.immigration and among the group here most supportive of it. Is that going
:48:02. > :48:06.to... You are talking about non-EU migration, and we have a new policy,
:48:07. > :48:10.and we want to make sure that highly skilled people come here. In terms
:48:11. > :48:16.of EU migration, it is a two-way street. 2 million Brits live in
:48:17. > :48:21.other EU countries, the vast majority in work, not pensioners,
:48:22. > :48:26.and they are only able to do that because of EU writes. London benefit
:48:27. > :48:30.hugely from EU migrants, and they contribute one third more than they
:48:31. > :48:34.take out in benefits. So certainly the Lib Dems and the Tories in
:48:35. > :48:38.government have made sure we are applying EU law on the right to
:48:39. > :48:42.benefits, because it is a right to work, not to collect benefits, and
:48:43. > :48:48.Labour had perhaps not properly applied that. But let's remember all
:48:49. > :48:52.the jobs that have been created by migrants, Canary Wharf employs
:48:53. > :48:59.100,000 people and is run by a Romanian. Do you agree? Yes, and the
:49:00. > :49:03.fact that it is a two-way street, a reciprocal arrangement that we
:49:04. > :49:06.have, health care rights when we travel, writes to social security in
:49:07. > :49:16.another member state, that is regulated. You know, it... And in
:49:17. > :49:19.terms of a lot of the rhetoric which is around about so-called benefit
:49:20. > :49:24.fraud, the government has not been able to come up with figures to make
:49:25. > :49:28.that stand up, the commission's own research has not been able to
:49:29. > :49:34.justify that. There is a hell of a lot of scaremongering going on
:49:35. > :49:42.around the election. Who would you hold responsible for that? It is not
:49:43. > :49:48.just one party, but one party is very clearly there in terms of the
:49:49. > :49:56.advertising, the rhetoric... UKIP, I wanted to use you to segue to
:49:57. > :50:00.Gerald, you have made is quite controversial. The whole of the
:50:01. > :50:04.European population has a right to come here if they want to, and a
:50:05. > :50:09.great many have. The other parties did not get this wrong. This exactly
:50:10. > :50:14.what they intended, what Labour intended. They are only worried
:50:15. > :50:19.about it now because of the UKIP electoral thread. All my colleagues
:50:20. > :50:23.here are now in favour of Turkish entry to the European Union, which
:50:24. > :50:29.would give another 72 million people the right to come here. Our policy
:50:30. > :50:34.is that we are not against immigration, but it should be of a
:50:35. > :50:39.degree, and on criteria set by the British Government. Not to have an
:50:40. > :50:51.open borders country 327 other countries. How do you answer that?
:50:52. > :50:55.The issues we have to look at our very real concerns, over numbers,
:50:56. > :51:01.over benefits tourism, no matter how large or small, and numbers. What I
:51:02. > :51:05.find fascinating is that you can talk about this all the time, stick
:51:06. > :51:09.it on your posters, but you can't do a thing about it. You have not got a
:51:10. > :51:14.single Member of Parliament, you can't deliver this sort of change.
:51:15. > :51:19.We have been building a political party for 20 years, and we intend to
:51:20. > :51:28.have an influence in the only parliament that can take as... This
:51:29. > :51:32.is a long-term fight. Your government, sorry, your party in the
:51:33. > :51:37.coalition government has no intention of doing anything about
:51:38. > :51:42.these things at all. It is all false promises because you are frightened
:51:43. > :51:47.of the UKIP electoral thread. You can't deliver. Gerald, you can't
:51:48. > :51:53.deliver. Then why have democracy? Why have other political parties? Do
:51:54. > :51:59.you have a divine right to be there? No-one else can do it, why bother
:52:00. > :52:04.having elections? We are in a process... You talk about changing
:52:05. > :52:09.something, you have criticised the European arrest warrant. I have
:52:10. > :52:12.worked to get a cross-party coalition in the European Parliament
:52:13. > :52:18.to call for reform, you were the only UKIP MEP who turned up and you
:52:19. > :52:22.voted against. Because we want it abolished and a proper international
:52:23. > :52:27.extradition treaty... So how would you have got Hussain Osman back in
:52:28. > :52:33.six weeks from Italy? What about the people being carted off to foreign
:52:34. > :52:37.prisons and being kept in inhumane conditions?! On that note, they's
:52:38. > :52:47.poll could be the last time we get to vote in the European election. --
:52:48. > :52:53.Me. Britain has much to contribute to
:52:54. > :52:57.the universal nature of Europe's responsibilities. Britain joined the
:52:58. > :53:03.European economic community, as it was known back then, in 1973. Two
:53:04. > :53:08.years later, voters got a chance to say whether they wanted in or out
:53:09. > :53:14.and chose overwhelmingly to stay in. But the Europe which Britain voted
:53:15. > :53:18.to be part of would soon change. In 1989, the Berlin Wall came down,
:53:19. > :53:24.opening the way for Eastern Europe to join the EU, and in 1992 black
:53:25. > :53:28.Wednesday. The Government has concluded Britain's best interests
:53:29. > :53:34.are concerned by suspending membership of the exchange rate
:53:35. > :53:39.mechanism. Britain set itself on a different path to other European
:53:40. > :53:44.member states, meaning that when the euro launched, Britain stayed out.
:53:45. > :53:48.And come the peak of the eurozone crisis in 2012, David Cameron
:53:49. > :53:52.effectively vetoed new Europe-wide institutions aimed at solving the
:53:53. > :53:56.crisis. Then, the following year, he had this to say. We will give the
:53:57. > :54:02.British people a referendum with a very simple in or out choice. And
:54:03. > :54:06.should the Conservatives be true to their word and win the general
:54:07. > :54:10.election, the UK will once again vote on whether to leave, meaning
:54:11. > :54:16.that at the next European elections in 2019, Britain may not be a
:54:17. > :54:20.member. If we had a referendum, and in that referendum we voted to
:54:21. > :54:25.leave, this could well be the lest European Parliament elections that
:54:26. > :54:30.we vote in. When you ask voters whether they think we should be in
:54:31. > :54:38.or out, it is close, typically around 45-55%, so 45 staying in, 55
:54:39. > :54:41.staying out. But when you frame it as a question of national interest,
:54:42. > :54:47.David Cameron says it is in your interest to stay in, actually
:54:48. > :54:51.support for staying in goes up to 65-70%. Should that come to pass,
:54:52. > :54:56.opinions vary greatly as to whether Britain would be better off in or
:54:57. > :55:02.out. What would London lose if we came
:55:03. > :55:06.out of the EU? Well, I think London would lose a lot of the vibrancy and
:55:07. > :55:12.diversity. It would lose a lot of the legislation which actually makes
:55:13. > :55:17.it a pleasant place to live, whether that is a quality, water quality,
:55:18. > :55:24.whatever. I think it also loses part of its role within the world. I
:55:25. > :55:30.think for us, we have an influence within the country, within a union
:55:31. > :55:38.of 28 which, as a single country, we don't have. It would function on its
:55:39. > :55:42.own, wouldn't it? With its financial records and history? The financial
:55:43. > :55:47.aspect is very important. As we know, the City of London is crucial
:55:48. > :55:51.to the whole country, and actually the City of London wants to stay in
:55:52. > :55:56.the EU. They recognise the huge benefits they get from being part of
:55:57. > :56:00.the single market, and the CBI has actually carried out surveys which
:56:01. > :56:04.show that the overwhelming majority, nearly 80% of their companies, wants
:56:05. > :56:10.to stay in the EU. I had a meeting only a few days ago with several
:56:11. > :56:13.organisations from the City of London, all in the financial
:56:14. > :56:18.services sector, and every single one of them not only wants to stay
:56:19. > :56:21.in the EU, they are very pro-. And they are actually very concerned at
:56:22. > :56:26.the moment, because they see increasing instability because they
:56:27. > :56:32.are not sure, the world is not sure about whether Britain will stay in
:56:33. > :56:37.or not. Do you feel we will wait and see what the British public thinks?
:56:38. > :56:41.If you look at the situation in Europe, the eurozone, high-level is
:56:42. > :56:45.unemployment, look at growth compared to other economies, Europe
:56:46. > :56:51.has to change. Europe cannot go on as it is, and Britain's relationship
:56:52. > :56:54.with the EU has to change. Only the Conservatives are offering people
:56:55. > :57:02.that Joyce - reform, renegotiation, referendum. -- choice. What would
:57:03. > :57:06.London lose? In other European countries we are seeing we have got
:57:07. > :57:11.two or three years to get significant reform. No ifs or buts,
:57:12. > :57:18.there will be a referendum by 2017. What would London gain if it came
:57:19. > :57:21.out? I talk to people in financial services, and you get a range of
:57:22. > :57:26.views. The big organisations with many lobbyists, public affairs
:57:27. > :57:30.people who like going to Brussels every week, of course they are in
:57:31. > :57:34.favour of it, but I speak to small companies who are really worried.
:57:35. > :57:40.What most people want, looking at opinion polls, is not in out now,
:57:41. > :57:44.they want the chance to reform Europe. In this diverse city,
:57:45. > :57:54.absolutely integral, some would argue, to not just the country's, me
:57:55. > :57:57.but Europe as well, and given UKIP's relatively poor showing in a
:57:58. > :58:05.metropolitan city, what do you think London would gain from coming out of
:58:06. > :58:09.the EU? We would control our own lawmaking processes, we would get a
:58:10. > :58:14.tremendous boost to the economy, because we wouldn't be paying all of
:58:15. > :58:16.these billions in every year to European Union membership. The
:58:17. > :58:20.economy would get a boost by getting rid of a lot of regulation, the
:58:21. > :58:24.Common Agricultural Policy, fisheries policy. My colleague has
:58:25. > :58:28.calculated that the direct and indirect costs on the British
:58:29. > :58:33.economy from membership of the EU is about ?170 billion per annum, and
:58:34. > :58:37.this idea that we can't exist outside of the EU is nonsense.
:58:38. > :58:42.London has existed for about 2000 years, and we have only been in the
:58:43. > :58:47.EU for the last 40. We would not have a problem surviving. A majority
:58:48. > :58:51.of firms want to stay in the EU, and if we want to trade with Europe,
:58:52. > :58:55.which we do, we would have to accept the rules and regulations. We would
:58:56. > :59:00.have to be like Norway, but having no say in how those rules are made.
:59:01. > :59:04.I do not think that is a role that is fit for Britain. I wanted to stay
:59:05. > :59:08.in and reform from the inside. I do not be David Cameron's position of
:59:09. > :59:13.holding a gun to the head Europe, can I finish? He says, if you do not
:59:14. > :59:17.agree with us, we will leave. Unfortunately, that tactic is not
:59:18. > :59:22.going to work, it will be by influencing and winning allies, and
:59:23. > :59:27.making reform from the inside. And we would lose a lot of the trade
:59:28. > :59:33.access that we have with the rest of the world as well. If we get a
:59:34. > :59:38.transatlantic trade deal, that would benefit the London economy by ?2
:59:39. > :59:44.billion. Do you think we would lose a lot? We gain massively... We gain
:59:45. > :59:50.massively by being in the single market. We actually have tax and
:59:51. > :59:56.trade with the rest of the EU, the largest market in the world. If we
:59:57. > :59:59.weren't in the single market, we would lose hugely. I think everyone
:00:00. > :00:10.access that, and that is one of the reasons we want to stay in the EU.
:00:11. > :00:18.As we have seen this rise of UKIP, this squeezes the Greens. I think it
:00:19. > :00:21.is squeezing every party and when we are looking towards the future of
:00:22. > :00:26.the European Union and what we want out of it, I think there are risks
:00:27. > :00:30.at the moment with the trade agreement with the US. This is
:00:31. > :00:35.something where my party is very clear. We think there are really big
:00:36. > :00:42.risks in that in terms of democratic decision-making, which I'm pleased
:00:43. > :00:52.to hear you say that because in the past that has not been the case. How
:00:53. > :01:01.worried are you by the progress they appear to have been making, UKIP? I
:01:02. > :01:05.think what's is that when I am on the doorstep, and opinion polls show
:01:06. > :01:10.this, most people don't want the choice of in or out, they want the
:01:11. > :01:20.choice of reform. When opinion polls say, if you were given the choice to
:01:21. > :01:27.go in or out of a reformed Europe most people choose to stay in. Do
:01:28. > :01:31.you want Britain to be a region of the United States of Europe, or do
:01:32. > :01:34.you want Britain to be an independent self-governing nation?
:01:35. > :01:40.The arguments now are the same as they were 40 years ago about the
:01:41. > :01:47.democratic issue. We could have a referendum now this Parliament
:01:48. > :01:55.passed the bill. Labour Lib Dems won't offer it, UKIP can't. On that
:01:56. > :02:00.note, thank you very much indeed for being here today. A list of all the
:02:01. > :02:05.parties and candidates standing in the European elections can be found
:02:06. > :02:09.on our website. That is all we have got time for this week. Next week,
:02:10. > :02:16.London's local elections. Welcome back. Now, the Government is
:02:17. > :02:20.not very good at predicting the future. That's according to a report
:02:21. > :02:23.from a committee of MPs this morning who say that its Horizon Scanning
:02:24. > :02:25.programme that's supposed to identify potential threats, risks,
:02:26. > :02:31.emerging issues and opportunities isn't much good at reading the tea
:02:32. > :02:35.leaves. But can it really be any worse than our panel? Here they are
:02:36. > :02:45.predicting the future of then culture secretary Maria Miller
:02:46. > :02:48.before Easter. Can she survive? I'm getting out of
:02:49. > :02:55.the prediction game after I said Nick Clegg would win the debates.
:02:56. > :03:00.But I almost think she might. If there is a big event that moves this
:03:01. > :03:07.off the front pages. David Cameron will want to keep Maria Miller until
:03:08. > :03:13.at least his summary shuffle. I think they will get rid of her. I
:03:14. > :03:18.think they will do the decent thing after exhausting all other options.
:03:19. > :03:27.Maria Miller resigned a few days later of course! The best and the
:03:28. > :03:31.brightest, when did that slip in? This week it will be exactly a year
:03:32. > :03:38.until the General Election, so what better time to get our panel to gaze
:03:39. > :03:44.into their crystal balls again. What's the outcome of the election
:03:45. > :03:52.in 2015? I'm going to go with the polls and say Ed Miliband as the
:03:53. > :03:57.Prime Minister. But the polls are only a snapshot of opinion now, you
:03:58. > :04:04.think they will be the same in a year? No, I think they will narrow.
:04:05. > :04:09.I think UKIP's vote share will fall. I think they are currently coasting
:04:10. > :04:17.on a high and that will tailor way so they won't take as many votes off
:04:18. > :04:24.the Tories. Labour with a majority or is the largest party. Another
:04:25. > :04:30.liberal Conservative coalition, and I say that because he is already in
:04:31. > :04:36.touching distance of Labour. I don't think UKIP will get 15, maybe half
:04:37. > :04:40.of that, and most of the votes they lose will either not vote at all go
:04:41. > :04:45.to the Tories and that should be enough to be the biggest party in a
:04:46. > :04:51.hung parliament I don't envisage a Tory majority. I am also going to go
:04:52. > :04:55.with the polls. For Ed Miliband to be hoping to win at this stage, he
:04:56. > :05:03.has got to be way ahead in the polls. Labour needs to be much
:05:04. > :05:07.further ahead if he is going to win so David Cameron, probably the
:05:08. > :05:11.leader of the largest party. Last time after the election David
:05:12. > :05:15.Cameron went to the 1922 committee and announced he was Prime Minister
:05:16. > :05:19.as head of the Coalition. He has agreed this time he will consult
:05:20. > :05:24.them and it will be much more difficult for him to get a
:05:25. > :05:30.coalition. People at home have now concluded there will be a Liberal
:05:31. > :05:35.Democrat landslide! Are we going to have debates? Yes, probably further
:05:36. > :05:42.away from polling day then last time. That is the Liberal Democrat
:05:43. > :05:48.point, isn't it? Yes, it sucks all the life out of the campaign, so the
:05:49. > :05:51.last six weeks will be left to traditional campaigning. What did
:05:52. > :06:01.you make of this in the Sunday Times this morning, this two, three, five
:06:02. > :06:08.formula. There should be a Cameron, Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg debate, then
:06:09. > :06:19.there should be another one with them and UKIP and the Greens. It
:06:20. > :06:24.might be testing the patience of the nation to tune into all of those. If
:06:25. > :06:28.you're going to say Nigel Farage should be there, the Green party
:06:29. > :06:35.should be too. They know that as soon as you put them on a podium
:06:36. > :06:40.next to them, he looks like he has equal stature and that is a problem.
:06:41. > :06:45.David Cameron does not want the debates to happen on the way they
:06:46. > :06:50.happened last time. It is generally regarded, Lynton Crosby believes
:06:51. > :06:55.they were a disaster for David Cameron because they allowed Nick
:06:56. > :07:00.Clegg to be the fresh person. He knows he cannot say no to them so
:07:01. > :07:05.the moment you see David Cameron suggesting that Caroline Lucas
:07:06. > :07:09.should be in the debate, you know he is not serious. What he will try to
:07:10. > :07:13.do is have more debates, have them outside the main part of the general
:07:14. > :07:16.election so that it doesn't dominate. The problem the David
:07:17. > :07:23.Cameron is that the campaign will be much longer. It is a five-week
:07:24. > :07:28.campaign so it is quite difficult for him to say we will only have one
:07:29. > :07:32.debate in that campaign. I think smother it with love, hopefully it
:07:33. > :07:37.will go to the courts for him and hopefully they will never happen and
:07:38. > :07:42.he will be delighted. The European election and the local elections are
:07:43. > :07:46.coming up. The three mainstream parties are saying it is a flash in
:07:47. > :07:53.the pan, they don't really matter and so on, but if UKIP comes a
:07:54. > :07:58.strong first, if Labour comes a poor second and the Tories come a poor
:07:59. > :08:04.third, it will have consequences for all three, and the Lib Dems come
:08:05. > :08:08.forth or even fish. It will have consequences and not just in the
:08:09. > :08:11.media but on the ground. One of the big stories is what will happen to
:08:12. > :08:20.the Lib Dems, they face losing all of their MEPs. A good result for
:08:21. > :08:24.them is lit -- in the local elections is losing 250 councillors.
:08:25. > :08:31.These are the most interesting elections we have had for some
:08:32. > :08:34.time. Are we heading for a Nick Clegg summer leadership crisis? I
:08:35. > :08:38.think we are heading towards reversing the clock back to where we
:08:39. > :08:44.were before the Eastleigh by-election. That quiet and things
:08:45. > :08:49.down for Nick Clegg. If they lose all their MEPs, and there is a real
:08:50. > :08:54.chance they will, Vince Cable will be out on manoeuvres because age is
:08:55. > :09:01.not on his side. If he can say Nick Clegg is a loser and a failure, he
:09:02. > :09:16.will be back. Will the Tories go into headless chicken mode if they
:09:17. > :09:23.come third? Yes, if UKIP come first there will not be as much panic as
:09:24. > :09:27.if Labour come first. Is Labour comes a poor second, will there be
:09:28. > :09:32.some pressure on Ed Miliband to reopen his attitude to the
:09:33. > :09:36.referendum? I don't think so and my colleague was talking to Labour
:09:37. > :09:40.sources who said he is absolutely not going to. That is something you
:09:41. > :09:46.can say definitely about him, he decides on a course and he sticks to
:09:47. > :09:51.it. There is one potential upside for David Cameron in a really bad
:09:52. > :09:55.Conservative results, it could strengthen his hand in the
:09:56. > :09:59.renegotiations of Britain's EU membership because he doesn't even
:10:00. > :10:07.need to say to Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande it is there. David
:10:08. > :10:12.Cameron hasn't just been fighting for his party into the local
:10:13. > :10:14.elections. He also got his knuckles wrapped by the Speaker, John Bercow,
:10:15. > :10:21.at Prime Minister's Question Time, for talking for too long. Take a
:10:22. > :10:27.look at this. There is a better future ahead of us but we must not
:10:28. > :10:32.go backward to the policies that put us in this mess in the first place.
:10:33. > :10:50.I don't know what they are paying him, Mr Speaker. Order, order. I
:10:51. > :10:53.haven't finished! In response to that question, the Prime Minister
:10:54. > :11:01.has finished and he can take it from me that he has finished. I can't
:11:02. > :11:06.remember a speaker ever speaking to a Prime Minister like that. Clearly
:11:07. > :11:12.in that case, John Bercow crossed a line. It is Prime Minister 's
:11:13. > :11:17.questions, he is entitled to answer the questions. There is really bad
:11:18. > :11:23.blood between those two, going back a long way. They hate each other and
:11:24. > :11:29.the worrying thing about that was the look of triumphalism on the
:11:30. > :11:32.speaker's face afterwards. He is a remarkable, revolutionary speaker
:11:33. > :11:37.who has made the House of Commons more relevant, he is holding the
:11:38. > :11:42.executive to account, but that look on his face showed he had crossed
:11:43. > :11:46.the line. Does he survive after the next election? He has improved the
:11:47. > :11:53.importance of the Commons, is that enough to keep him in the Speaker 's
:11:54. > :11:59.chair? The most public bit of the Commons is still the Prime Minister
:12:00. > :12:03.'s questions, and we can conclude that John Bercow's interventions
:12:04. > :12:10.take more time than any delays he complains about so I wouldn't be
:12:11. > :12:17.surprised if, in a few years' time, someone else replaces him. He is
:12:18. > :12:24.quite popular with Labour, is he not? Yes, he is married to a Labour
:12:25. > :12:29.activist and is notably sympathetic to Labour but I think this is a
:12:30. > :12:34.difficult situation. David Cameron also overstepped the line. As soon
:12:35. > :12:40.as the speaker says order, the idea is that the House was to order and
:12:41. > :12:46.David Cameron pushed him. They are both trying to score points off each
:12:47. > :12:53.other. We cover Prime Minister 's questions every week on the daily
:12:54. > :12:57.politics, and there is a danger that he sees it as an opportunity to do
:12:58. > :13:02.some grandstanding. You slightly sends his vanity gets the better of
:13:03. > :13:06.him. It is supposed to be Prime Minister 's questions. At the end of
:13:07. > :13:12.that session, the Speaker read out a statement from the Chief clerk, and
:13:13. > :13:16.immensely respected figure, saying he is taking early retirement. It is
:13:17. > :13:21.pretty clear that the reason he has decided to go early is because he is
:13:22. > :13:24.finding it tricky to maintain a cordial relationship with the
:13:25. > :13:29.speaker, and the speaker might want to think about his man management
:13:30. > :13:32.skills. That's all for today. The Daily Politics will be back on BBC
:13:33. > :13:36.Two at lunchtime from Tuesday onwards. Remember, it is a bank
:13:37. > :13:39.holiday tomorrow. I'll be back here at 11am next week. Remember - if
:13:40. > :13:44.it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.