:00:38. > :00:44.Good morning, welcome to the Sunday Politics. Senior Liberal Democrats
:00:45. > :00:51.say the public has lost trust in Nick Clegg. They call for him to go
:00:52. > :00:54.after the local election meltdown. And before the likely Europa rove a
:00:55. > :00:59.catastrophe tonight. Labour and Tories struggled to cope with the
:01:00. > :01:04.UKIP insurgency as Nigel Farage hosts his success and declares the
:01:05. > :01:10.UKIP Fox is in the Westminster henhouse. And should politicians
:01:11. > :01:16.wait until the cameras are switched off to eat?
:01:17. > :01:20.In London, Labour pound to the town hall spread, the Liberal Democrats
:01:21. > :01:29.disappeared, UKIP failed to show. More analysis in just over half an
:01:30. > :01:33.hour. Cooped up in the Sunday Politics
:01:34. > :01:41.henhouse, our own boot should -- bunch of headless chickens. Nick
:01:42. > :01:45.Watt, Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh. The Liberal Democrats lost over 300
:01:46. > :01:49.councillors on Thursday, on top of the losses in previous years, the
:01:50. > :01:53.local government base has been whittled away in many parts of the
:01:54. > :01:55.country. Members of the European Parliament will face a similar
:01:56. > :02:00.comment when the results are announced tonight. A small but
:02:01. > :02:05.growing chorus of Liberal Democrats have called on Nick Clegg to go.
:02:06. > :02:10.This is what the candidate in West Dorset had to say.
:02:11. > :02:17.People know that locally we worked incredibly hard on their councils
:02:18. > :02:21.and as their MPs, but Nick Clegg is perceived to have not been
:02:22. > :02:26.and as their MPs, but Nick Clegg is trustworthy in leadership. Do you
:02:27. > :02:33.trust him? He has lacked bone on significant issues that are the core
:02:34. > :02:36.values of our party. This is how the party president
:02:37. > :02:43.responded. At this time, it would be foolish
:02:44. > :02:47.for us as a party to turn in on ourselves. What has separated us
:02:48. > :02:51.from the Conservatives is, while they have been like cats in a sack,
:02:52. > :02:58.we have stood united, and that is what we will continue to do. The
:02:59. > :03:03.major reason why is because we consented to the coalition, unlike
:03:04. > :03:12.the Conservatives. We had a vote, and a full conference.
:03:13. > :03:19.Is there a growing question over Nick Clegg's leadership? Different
:03:20. > :03:24.people have different views. My own view is I need to consult my own
:03:25. > :03:27.activists and members before coming to a conclusion. I am looking at
:03:28. > :03:32.holding a meeting for us to discuss the issue. I have been told by some
:03:33. > :03:36.people they do not think a meeting is required, they think he should
:03:37. > :03:40.stay, and other people have decided he should go. As a responsible
:03:41. > :03:46.Democrat, I should consult the members here before coming to my
:03:47. > :03:51.conclusions. What is your view at the moment? I have got to listen to
:03:52. > :03:59.my members. But you must have some kind of you. Because I have an open
:04:00. > :04:05.mind, I do not think he must stay, I am willing to say I have not made my
:04:06. > :04:09.mind up. From a news point of view, that is my official position. I can
:04:10. > :04:16.assure you there is not much news in that! I said earlier I am not going
:04:17. > :04:22.to say he must go must stay, I am consulting my members. But you must
:04:23. > :04:26.have some kind of view of your own before you have listened to your
:04:27. > :04:30.members. There are people who are wrongfully sanctioned and end up
:04:31. > :04:35.using food banks, I am upset about that, because we should not
:04:36. > :04:39.allow... I do not mind having a sanctioning system, that I get
:04:40. > :04:44.constituents who are put in this position, we should not accept that.
:04:45. > :04:50.I rebel on the issue of a referendum on membership of the EU. I am also
:04:51. > :04:55.concerned about the way the rules have been changed in terms of how
:04:56. > :05:01.parents are treated in their ability to take children to funerals out of
:05:02. > :05:06.school time. There are questions about the leader's responsible T for
:05:07. > :05:10.those policies. Nick Clegg has made it clear he is a staunch
:05:11. > :05:16.pro-European, he wants the Liberal Democrats to be in, he does not want
:05:17. > :05:19.a referendum, if you lose a chunk of your MEPs tonight, what does that
:05:20. > :05:25.say about how in June you are with written public opinion? There are
:05:26. > :05:29.issues with how you publish your policies. I do not agree 100% with
:05:30. > :05:35.what the government is doing or with what Nick Clegg says. I do think we
:05:36. > :05:42.should stay within the EU, because the alternative means we have less
:05:43. > :05:47.control over our borders. There is a presentational issue, because what
:05:48. > :05:50.UKIP want, to leave the EU, is worse in terms of control of borders,
:05:51. > :05:57.which is their main reason for wanting to leave, which is strange.
:05:58. > :06:01.There are debate issues, but I have got personal concerns, I do worry
:06:02. > :06:07.about the impact on my constituents when they face wrongful sanctions.
:06:08. > :06:12.You have said that. A fellow Liberal Democrat MP has compared Nick Clegg
:06:13. > :06:17.to a general at the Somme, causing carnage amongst the troops. I am
:06:18. > :06:22.more interested in the policy issues, are we doing the right
:06:23. > :06:27.things? I do think the coalition was essential, we had to rescue the
:06:28. > :06:31.country from financial problems. My own view on the issue of student
:06:32. > :06:37.finance, we did the right thing, in accordance with the pledge, which
:06:38. > :06:40.was to get a better system, more students are going to university,
:06:41. > :06:45.and more from disadvantaged backgrounds. But there are issues.
:06:46. > :06:50.But Nick Clegg survive as leader through till the next election? It
:06:51. > :06:56.depends what odds you will give me! If you are not going to give me is,
:06:57. > :07:02.I am not going to get! If you listen to John hemming, he has got nothing
:07:03. > :07:09.to worry about. He does have something to worry about, they lost
:07:10. > :07:14.300 seats, on the uniform swing, you would see people like Vince cable
:07:15. > :07:18.and Simon Hughes lose their seats. But nobody wants to be the one to
:07:19. > :07:24.we'll be nice, they would rather wait until after the next election,
:07:25. > :07:31.and then rebuild the party. Yes, there is no chance of him walking
:07:32. > :07:34.away. Somebody like Tim Farron or Vince Cable, whoever the successor
:07:35. > :07:39.is, though have to close the dagger ten months before an election, do
:07:40. > :07:43.they want that spectacle? If I were Nick Clegg, I would walk away, it is
:07:44. > :07:48.reasonably obvious that the left-wing voters who defect had
:07:49. > :07:53.towards the Labour Party in 2010 will not return while he is leader.
:07:54. > :07:59.And anything he was going to achieve historically, the already has done.
:08:00. > :08:04.Unlike David Miliband, sorry, Ed Miliband or David Cameron, he has
:08:05. > :08:08.transformed the identity of the party, they are in government. Had
:08:09. > :08:12.it not been for him, they would have continued to be the main protest
:08:13. > :08:18.party, rather than a party of government. So he has got to take it
:08:19. > :08:22.all the way through until the election. If he left now, he would
:08:23. > :08:27.look like he was a tenant in the conservative house. What we are
:08:28. > :08:33.seeing is an operation to destabilise Nick Clegg, but it is a
:08:34. > :08:36.Liberal Democrat one, so it is chaotic. There are people who have
:08:37. > :08:41.never really been reconciled to the coalition and to Nick Clegg, they
:08:42. > :08:49.are pushing for this. What is Nick Clegg going to do, and Tim Farron?
:08:50. > :08:54.-- what is Vince Cable going to do? Vince Cable is in China, on a
:08:55. > :09:02.business trip. It is like John Major's toothache in 1990. What is
:09:03. > :09:08.Tim Farron doing? He is behind Nick Clegg, because he knows that his
:09:09. > :09:10.best chances of being leader are as the Westland candidate, the person
:09:11. > :09:19.who picks up the mess in a year. Vince Cable's only opportunity is on
:09:20. > :09:22.this side of the election. But you say they are not a party of
:09:23. > :09:30.government, but what looks more likely is overall the -- is no
:09:31. > :09:34.overall control. You might find a common mission looking appealing.
:09:35. > :09:40.They could still hold the balance of power. A lot of people in the Labour
:09:41. > :09:46.Party might say, let's just have a minority government. 30 odds and
:09:47. > :09:52.sods who will not turn up to vote. If they want to be up until 3am
:09:53. > :09:56.every morning, be like that! When you were in short trousers, it was
:09:57. > :10:04.like that every night, it was great fun! The Liberal Democrats will not
:10:05. > :10:10.provide confidence to a minority government, they will pull the plug
:10:11. > :10:17.and behave ruthlessly. Does Nick leg lead the Liberal Democrats into the
:10:18. > :10:21.next election? Yes. Yes. Yes. I am sorry, Nick Clegg, you are
:10:22. > :10:25.finished! We will speak to Paddy Ashdown in the second part of the
:10:26. > :10:30.show to speak about the Liberal Democrats. The UKIP insurgency could
:10:31. > :10:33.not deliver the promised earthquake, but it produced enough shock waves
:10:34. > :10:38.to discombobulated the established parties. They are struggling to work
:10:39. > :10:47.out how to deal with them. We watched it all unfold.
:10:48. > :10:55.Behind the scenes of any election night is intensely busy. Those in
:10:56. > :10:58.charge of party strategy and logistics want their people focused,
:10:59. > :11:02.working with purpose and rehearsed to make sure their spin on the
:11:03. > :11:09.results is what viewers remember and take on board. A bit of a buzz of
:11:10. > :11:15.activity inside the BBC's studio, kept and primed for the results.
:11:16. > :11:19.What this does not show due is the exterior doubles up for hospital
:11:20. > :11:23.dramas like Holby City, there are doorways that are mock-ups of
:11:24. > :11:26.accident and emergency, but the electorate will discover which of
:11:27. > :11:29.the parties they have put into intensive care, which ones are
:11:30. > :11:36.coming out of recovery and which ones are in rude health. We joined
:11:37. > :11:42.David Dimbleby. Good evening, welcome to the BBC's new election
:11:43. > :11:47.centre. When three big beasts become for on the political field, things
:11:48. > :11:51.have changed. Eric Pickles says we will be seen off next year, we will
:11:52. > :11:56.see you at Westminster! This party is going to break through next year,
:11:57. > :12:01.and you never know, we might even hold the balance of power. Old
:12:02. > :12:04.messages that gave voters in excuses to go elsewhere on the ballot paper
:12:05. > :12:08.exposed the older players to questions from within their ranks.
:12:09. > :12:11.In the hen house of the House of Commons, the fox that wants to get
:12:12. > :12:19.in has ruffled feathers. The reason they have had amazing success, a
:12:20. > :12:24.rapid rise, partly what Chuka Umunna says about being a repository, but
:12:25. > :12:30.they have also managed to sound like human beings, and that his Nigel
:12:31. > :12:34.Farage's eight victory. For some conservatives, a pact was the best
:12:35. > :12:38.form of defence. It would be preferable if all members of UKIP
:12:39. > :12:44.and voters became Tories overnight. That seems to be an ambitious
:12:45. > :12:50.proposition. Therefore, we need to do something that welcomes them on
:12:51. > :12:55.board in a slightly different way. Labour had successes, but nobody but
:12:56. > :12:59.they're wizards of Spain was completely buying a big success
:13:00. > :13:03.story. Gaffes behind the scenes and strategic errors were levelled at
:13:04. > :13:08.those who have managed the campaign. They have played a clever game, you
:13:09. > :13:12.shuffle bedecked around, and if UKIP does quite well but not well enough,
:13:13. > :13:18.that helps Labour get in. That kind of mindset will not win the general
:13:19. > :13:23.election, and we saw that in the tap ticks and strategy, and that is why,
:13:24. > :13:28.on our leaflets for the European elections, we chose deliberately not
:13:29. > :13:35.to attack UKIP, that was a bad error. Not so, so somebody who has
:13:36. > :13:39.been in that spotlight. If you look at the electoral maths, UKIP will
:13:40. > :13:44.still be aiming at the Tories in a general election. They are the
:13:45. > :13:48.second party in Rotherham, Labour will always hold what the room, it
:13:49. > :13:52.is safe, there is no point being second in a safe seat. UKIP have
:13:53. > :13:59.taken Castle Point, a Tory seat they will target. The question for the
:14:00. > :14:03.next election, can they make a challenge? The Tories will be under
:14:04. > :14:08.the gun from UKIP. The substance of these results is UKIP not in
:14:09. > :14:11.government, they do not have any MPs, they do not run a single
:14:12. > :14:17.Council, at dismissing them ceased to be an option. The question is,
:14:18. > :14:33.who will they heard most and how do you smoke the keeper's threat?
:14:34. > :14:41.Joining me now, day about and Patrick O'Flynn. Do you agree not
:14:42. > :14:47.enough was done for the elections? No, we have very good results around
:14:48. > :14:52.Hammersmith and Fulham, Croydon, Redbridge, and we picked off council
:14:53. > :15:02.wards in Haringey meaning that Lynne Featherstone and Simon Hughes worked
:15:03. > :15:07.on. The Ashcroft polling shows that in key marginals, we are well ahead
:15:08. > :15:16.and on course to win in 2015. I will be putting Mr Ashcroft's poll to
:15:17. > :15:21.Eric Pickles shortly. On the basis of the local elections your national
:15:22. > :15:26.share of the vote would be just 31%, only two points ahead of the Tories,
:15:27. > :15:32.only two points ahead of Gordon Brown's disastrous performance in
:15:33. > :15:36.2010. Why so low? National share is one thing but I am talking about
:15:37. > :15:45.what we are doing in the key marginals. Clearly some were taken
:15:46. > :15:51.away from others like Rotherham but we have got many voters back. You
:15:52. > :15:56.are only two points better than you were in 2010 and use of your worst
:15:57. > :16:01.defeat in living memory. That is the totality. What matters
:16:02. > :16:06.is seat by seat, that is what the Republicans found in the
:16:07. > :16:11.presidential elections. Patrick O'Flynn, you performed well in the
:16:12. > :16:14.local election but it wasn't an earthquake. It is definitely true
:16:15. > :16:19.that Labour did well in London but that is a double-edged sword because
:16:20. > :16:26.you have an increasing disconnect between the metropolis and the rest
:16:27. > :16:30.of the country. Our vote share was somewhat depressed not just because
:16:31. > :16:36.London is one of our weakest part of the country but because most of the
:16:37. > :16:40.warts in London were 3-member wards and we were typically only putting
:16:41. > :16:44.up one candidate. Even when they fared well, it still tracked down
:16:45. > :16:53.the projected national share. I think we did well, and what was
:16:54. > :17:06.particularly good was getting the target seat list becoming clear
:17:07. > :17:12.before our eyes. Suzanne Evans said that basically smart folk don't vote
:17:13. > :17:17.for UKIP. I think that is a tiny fragment of what she said. She said
:17:18. > :17:21.London is its own entity and is increasingly different from the rest
:17:22. > :17:25.of the country. One of the things that is different from London as
:17:26. > :17:30.opposed to Rotherham is that we have very big parties. I have a few
:17:31. > :17:37.thousand people in mind, Rotherham has a few hundred. People don't go
:17:38. > :17:42.and knock on doors and talk to people, in London we have always had
:17:43. > :17:46.to do that. London is full of young voters, full of ethnically diverse
:17:47. > :17:52.voters, that is why you are not doing well, you don't appeal to live
:17:53. > :17:57.there. I think London in general has a very different attitude to mass
:17:58. > :18:07.uncontrolled immigration. Londoners know that if an immigrant moves in
:18:08. > :18:12.next door to you, to use Nigel Farage's phrase, the world doesn't
:18:13. > :18:19.end tomorrow. People in the big cities know that, that is the point.
:18:20. > :18:26.What Diane Abbott is doing is try to convince London of its moral
:18:27. > :18:31.superiority so I am delighted... It is a simple fact that immigrants do
:18:32. > :18:35.not end the world if they move in next door. The economic recovery is
:18:36. > :18:40.getting more robust by the month, you have a seriously to ship problem
:18:41. > :18:49.according to many people on your own site. Maybe you're 31% of the vote
:18:50. > :18:55.is as good as it gets. Those who go round bitching about Ed Miliband
:18:56. > :19:03.have been doing that before the result. We have all polled very
:19:04. > :19:13.well. Ed Miliband does not polled very well. He has actually fashioned
:19:14. > :19:18.some really effective policies. Unemployment is tumbling, inflation
:19:19. > :19:22.is falling, growth is strengthening, and you have a leader who claims
:19:23. > :19:30.there is a cost of living crisis and he doesn't have a clue about his own
:19:31. > :19:35.cost of living. I think that was poor staff work. That he doesn't
:19:36. > :19:46.know what goes in his own shopping basket? I think his own staff could
:19:47. > :19:50.have prepared him for that. My point is that the numbers are looking
:19:51. > :20:02.better, we know that, but people don't feel better off. Then why are
:20:03. > :20:06.all consumer index polls better? They are feeling confident. They may
:20:07. > :20:11.be saying that, but people are worried about their future, their
:20:12. > :20:16.children's future. That is not what you buy today or tomorrow. If you
:20:17. > :20:19.ask people about their future and their children's future and
:20:20. > :20:25.prospects, they feel frightened. What will be a good result for you
:20:26. > :20:31.in the general election? We need to see Nigel Farage elected as an MP
:20:32. > :20:37.and he mustn't go there on his own. How many people do you think will be
:20:38. > :20:42.with him? Who knows, but we will have 20 to 30 target seat and if you
:20:43. > :20:45.put together the clusters we got in last year's County elections with
:20:46. > :20:51.the one we got this year, you can have a good guess at where they
:20:52. > :20:55.are. A number of people who voted for you and Thursday say they are
:20:56. > :21:00.going to back to the three main parties in general election. It
:21:01. > :21:07.would be foolish of me to say that they are going to stay. Some have
:21:08. > :21:17.said they have just lent their votes but voters hate being taken for
:21:18. > :21:25.granted. It is up to us to broaden our agenda, and build on our
:21:26. > :21:31.strengths, work on our weaknesses. Ed Miliband may have to do a deal
:21:32. > :21:37.with him. We have been here before, but the UKIP bubble is going to
:21:38. > :21:43.burst and that may happen around the time of Newark. Are you going to win
:21:44. > :21:47.Newark now? We are going to give it a really good crack. We love being
:21:48. > :21:56.the underdog, we don't see it as being the big goal -- the be all and
:21:57. > :22:05.end all. If you're going to get a big bounce off the elections, not to
:22:06. > :22:12.go and win your shows people who govern in Parliament, they don't
:22:13. > :22:15.vote for you. It is Labour who have given up the campaign already so we
:22:16. > :22:23.need a really big swing in our favour and we will give it a great
:22:24. > :22:30.crack. The bubble will burst at the Newark by-election, trust me. Have
:22:31. > :22:39.you been to Newark? Newark will see from local people... Where is it? It
:22:40. > :22:44.is outside the M25, I can tell you that. My point is that we are set
:22:45. > :22:49.for victory in 2015. I want to run this clip and get your take on it,
:22:50. > :22:55.an interview that Nigel Farage did with LBC. What they do is they have
:22:56. > :22:59.an auditor to make sure they spend their money in accordance with their
:23:00. > :23:10.rules. You say that is if there is something wrong with it. Hang on,
:23:11. > :23:15.hang on. This is Patrick O'Flynn, is this a friend in the media or a
:23:16. > :23:23.member of the political class? Do you regret doing that now? What were
:23:24. > :23:29.you doing? No, I was trying to get Nigel Farage to a more important
:23:30. > :23:38.interview with Sunday Times that had painstakingly organised. He was on
:23:39. > :23:44.there? I have told the LBC people next door that he was running over.
:23:45. > :23:50.So you interrupted a live interview and you don't regret that? No,
:23:51. > :23:54.because just between us I wasn't a massive enthusiast for that
:23:55. > :23:58.interview taking place at all. I know what James O'Brien is like and
:23:59. > :24:10.I knew it wouldn't be particularly edifying. But your boss wasn't happy
:24:11. > :24:19.with the intervention. Sometimes the boss gets shirty. We all upset our
:24:20. > :24:23.boss every now and again, but anyway you could be an MEP by this time
:24:24. > :24:29.tomorrow and you won't have to do this job any more. You can then just
:24:30. > :24:34.count your salary and your expenses. I will make the contribution my
:24:35. > :24:38.party leader asked me to, to restore Britain to being a self-governing
:24:39. > :24:43.country. Are you going to stay in the job or not? I would not be able
:24:44. > :24:47.to do the job in the same way but I would maybe have some kind of
:24:48. > :24:55.overview. We will leave it there. Yesterday Michael Ashcroft, a former
:24:56. > :25:01.deputy chairman, produced a mammoth opinion poll of more than 26,000
:25:02. > :25:04.voters in 26 marginal constituencies, crucial seat that
:25:05. > :25:09.will decide the outcome of the general election next year. In 26
:25:10. > :25:21.constituencies people were asked which party's candidate they would
:25:22. > :25:26.support, and Labour took a healthy 12 point lead, implying a swing of
:25:27. > :25:35.6.5% from Conservatives to Labour from the last general election. That
:25:36. > :25:44.implies Labour would topple 83 Tory MPs. The poll also shows UKIP in
:25:45. > :25:52.second place in four seats, and three of them are Labour seats.
:25:53. > :25:57.Michael Ashcroft says a quarter of those who say they would vote UKIP
:25:58. > :26:01.supported the Tories at the last election. As many as have switched
:26:02. > :26:05.from Labour and the Lib Dems combined.
:26:06. > :26:11.The communities Secretary Eric Pickles joins me now. The Ashcroft
:26:12. > :26:16.Paul that gives Labour a massive 12 point lead in the crucial marginal
:26:17. > :26:21.constituencies, you would lose 83 MPs if this was repeated in an
:26:22. > :26:28.election. It doesn't get worse than that, does it? Yesterday I went
:26:29. > :26:33.through that Paul in great detail, and what it shows is that in a
:26:34. > :26:40.number of key seats we are ahead, and somewhere behind, and I think is
:26:41. > :26:41.Michael rightly shows... You are behind in most of them. This is
:26:42. > :26:46.Michael rightly shows... You are snapshot and we have a year in which
:26:47. > :26:50.the economy is going to be improving, and we have a year to say
:26:51. > :26:54.to those candidates that are fighting those key seats, look, just
:26:55. > :27:04.around the corner people are ahead in the same kind of seat as you and
:27:05. > :27:07.we need to redouble our efforts. The Tory brand is dying in major parts
:27:08. > :27:11.of the country, you are the walking dead in Scotland, and now London,
:27:12. > :27:21.huge chunks of London are becoming a no-go zone for you. That's not true
:27:22. > :27:26.with regard to the northern seats. Tell me what seats you have? In
:27:27. > :27:31.terms of councillors we are the largest party in local government.
:27:32. > :27:38.After four years in power... You are smiling but no political party has
:27:39. > :27:43.ever done that. You haven't got a single councillor in the great city
:27:44. > :27:49.of Manchester. We have councillors in Bradford and Leeds, we have
:27:50. > :27:54.more... You haven't got an MP in any of the big cities? We have more
:27:55. > :27:59.councillors in the north of England than Labour. A quarter of those who
:28:00. > :28:04.say they would vote UKIP and did vote UKIP supported the Tories at
:28:05. > :28:09.the last election. Why are so many of your 2010 voters now so
:28:10. > :28:14.disillusioned? Any election will bring a degree of churning, and we
:28:15. > :28:18.hope to get as many back as we can, but we also want to get Liberal
:28:19. > :28:23.Democrats, people who voted for the Lib Dems and the Labour Party. If we
:28:24. > :28:29.concentrate on one part of the electorate, then we won't take power
:28:30. > :28:33.and I believe we will because I believe we represent a wide spectrum
:28:34. > :28:38.of opinion in this country and I believe that delivering a long-term
:28:39. > :28:43.economic plan, delivering prosperity into people 's pockets will be felt.
:28:44. > :28:46.On the basis of the local election results, you would not pick up a
:28:47. > :28:55.single Labour seat in the general election. You make the point that it
:28:56. > :29:03.is about local elections. Seats that Labour should have taken from us
:29:04. > :29:08.they didn't, which is important... I am asking what possible Labour seat
:29:09. > :29:12.you would hope to win after the results on Thursday. Local elections
:29:13. > :29:16.are local elections. The national election will have a much bigger
:29:17. > :29:22.turnout, it will be one year from now, we will be able to demonstrate
:29:23. > :29:25.to the population that the trends we are seeing already in terms of the
:29:26. > :29:30.success of our long-term economic plan, they will be feeling that in
:29:31. > :29:36.their pockets. People need to feel secure about their jobs and feel
:29:37. > :29:40.that their children have a future. Maybe so many of your people are
:29:41. > :29:43.defecting to UKIP because on issues that they really care about like
:29:44. > :29:54.mass immigration, you don't keep your promises.
:29:55. > :29:59.We have reduced immigration and the amount of pull factors. Let me give
:30:00. > :30:06.you the figures. You have said a couple of things are not true. You
:30:07. > :30:13.promised to cut net immigration to under 100,000 by 2015, last year it
:30:14. > :30:18.rose by 50,000, 212,000. You have broken your promise. We still intend
:30:19. > :30:24.to reduce the amount from non-EU countries. I want to be clear, I
:30:25. > :30:29.have no problem with people coming here who want to work and pay their
:30:30. > :30:35.national insurance and tax, to help fund the health service. What I have
:30:36. > :30:41.objection to our people coming here to get the additional benefits. You
:30:42. > :30:48.made the promise. It is our intention to deliver it. People
:30:49. > :30:53.defect to UKIP because mainstream politicians to -- like yourself do
:30:54. > :30:57.not give straight answers. Can you be straight, you will not hit your
:30:58. > :31:04.immigration target by the election, correct? We will announce measures
:31:05. > :31:09.that. People factor. Will you hit your target? It is a year from now,
:31:10. > :31:18.it is our intention to move towards the target. Is it your intention, do
:31:19. > :31:22.you say you will hit your target of under 100,000 net migration by the
:31:23. > :31:28.election? We will do our damnedest. But you will not make it. I do not
:31:29. > :31:33.know that to be fact. They also vote UKIP cos they do not trust you and
:31:34. > :31:38.Europe, David Cameron has promised a referendum, he has vowed to resign
:31:39. > :31:43.if he does not deliver one, but still your voters vote for UKIP.
:31:44. > :31:52.There were reasons why people voted for UKIP. A great deal of anger
:31:53. > :31:55.about the political system, about the Metropolitan elite that they see
:31:56. > :32:00.running programmes like this and the political programmes. We need to
:32:01. > :32:10.listen to their concerns and address them. David Cameron has got a better
:32:11. > :32:16.record on delivery. He vetoed a treaty, he stopped us having to bail
:32:17. > :32:22.out the currency. Why are you likely to convert a night in the European
:32:23. > :32:27.elections? If you do come third, it will show they do not trust you on
:32:28. > :32:34.Europe. Next year, we will face a general election, about having money
:32:35. > :32:40.in people's pockets, about who will run the country. David Davis wants
:32:41. > :32:44.to China and get the voters to trust the Tories on the referendum, he was
:32:45. > :32:51.the pledge to be brought forward to 2016. He is a clever guy. But if you
:32:52. > :32:56.are going to try to negotiate a better deal to give the population a
:32:57. > :33:04.better choice, you cannot do that in a year, you will require two years.
:33:05. > :33:11.You are an Essex MP, you know about Essex people, it must be depressing
:33:12. > :33:15.that they are now voting for UKIP. I do not have any UKIP in my
:33:16. > :33:21.constituency. I felt bad to see Basildon go down and to see the
:33:22. > :33:28.leader go down. Do you know why that is? The Tory party does not resonate
:33:29. > :33:33.with the Essex people in the way that the Margaret Thatcher party
:33:34. > :33:37.did. That is why you did not get a majority in 2010 and why you will
:33:38. > :33:43.not win in 2015. We need to connect better. They will want to know about
:33:44. > :33:50.their children's future, will they have a job, a good education? When
:33:51. > :33:54.it comes to electing a national government, they do not want to see
:33:55. > :34:00.Ed Miliband in office. They are voting for Nigel Farage. In terms of
:34:01. > :34:06.what government you get, do you want to see David Cameron in number ten
:34:07. > :34:11.or Ed Miliband? Essex will want to see David Cameron. You only got 36%
:34:12. > :34:19.of the vote four years ago, your party, occurs you did not get the
:34:20. > :34:23.Essex people in the same numbers, like John Major or Margaret Thatcher
:34:24. > :34:30.did. You need more than 36% in 2015 to win the election. On Thursday,
:34:31. > :34:38.your share was 29%. We were 2% behind Labour. They did not do very
:34:39. > :34:45.well either. A year before, -- a year before the election in 1997,
:34:46. > :34:52.they were on 43%. It is highly deliver the votes. We have a
:34:53. > :34:55.campaign looking at the marginals. We know exactly where we are not
:34:56. > :35:01.doing as well as we should be. I am a big fan of Michael Ashcroft. Do
:35:02. > :35:05.you think he does this to be helpful? He is a great man and a
:35:06. > :35:11.good conservative, I am a good friend of his. I think that his
:35:12. > :35:16.publication was one of the best things that happened to the party.
:35:17. > :35:24.You got 36% of the vote last time, you are down to 29, you need 38 or
:35:25. > :35:32.39, you would get that if you had a pact with UKIP. There will be no
:35:33. > :35:36.pact. I am a Democrat. It is like a market stall, you should put your
:35:37. > :35:41.policies out there and you should not try to fix the market. Would you
:35:42. > :35:53.stop a local pact? There will be no pact with UKIP. None.
:35:54. > :35:58.It has just gone 11:35am. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland and
:35:59. > :36:03.Northern Ireland. Coming up here, we will speak to the
:36:04. > :36:08.Liberal Democrat election coordinator Paddy Ashdown. First,
:36:09. > :36:09.more details of your local results in the Sunday Politics where you
:36:10. > :36:22.are. Yes, welcome from us. He to dissect
:36:23. > :36:29.the events of the last few days, Simon Hughes and Harriet Harman.
:36:30. > :36:34.Neighbours in Southwark, so we cannot let the borough dominate too
:36:35. > :36:40.much, so we have gone north of the river, Bob Blackman. A bit later, we
:36:41. > :36:46.will look at what it is about UKIP that Londoners do not appear to
:36:47. > :36:50.like. Before that, this. This is how London looked a week
:36:51. > :36:56.ago, and this is how it looks this morning. Labour turning the map
:36:57. > :37:02.read, with five cancelled victories. Croydon was a direct take from the
:37:03. > :37:07.Conservatives, and Redbridge became Labour for the first time in its
:37:08. > :37:15.history. I want you to give the biggest round of applause for the
:37:16. > :37:20.new leader of Redbridge Council. But the surprise victory was Hammersmith
:37:21. > :37:23.and Fulham. They cancel that was sometimes described as David
:37:24. > :37:29.Cameron's favourite. I am humbled, people voting for us but do not
:37:30. > :37:33.normally vote for us. But they were disappointed for the Labour Party as
:37:34. > :37:41.well, they had hoped to win back our ham it. Tower Hamlets is the last
:37:42. > :37:47.borough to call, and it is also possibly the most tense atmosphere.
:37:48. > :37:53.The police are here in high number, they have penned off an area around
:37:54. > :37:59.the count. I declare that he is duly elected as the mayor of Tower
:38:00. > :38:07.Hamlets. Ladies and gentlemen, the people of this borough have spoken
:38:08. > :38:20.again. Back out on the streets, huge excitement as he greeted the crowd.
:38:21. > :38:23.Can I just say this... There was disappointment for Labour after
:38:24. > :38:30.another long night in Barnet. The Conservative council had made a name
:38:31. > :38:36.for themselves with an outsourcing projects, they had given a private
:38:37. > :38:40.company money to run the council. It was hugely controversial, it made
:38:41. > :38:44.national headlines and was opposed here locally by the Labour Party and
:38:45. > :38:47.the trade unions. On a night when the Conservative party is not in the
:38:48. > :38:54.ascendancy, we have done well, and I am pleased. It shows that doing
:38:55. > :38:59.something is worthwhile. It is a victory for the Conservatives in
:39:00. > :39:02.Barnet, but only by the closest of margins. The Conservatives will be
:39:03. > :39:06.celebrating, but across London, there is not much for them to be
:39:07. > :39:11.happy about. The greatest consolation was taking Kingston. The
:39:12. > :39:15.Liberal Democrats had a difficult campaign defending the highest
:39:16. > :39:20.council tax in London and for the former leader being jailed for
:39:21. > :39:24.possessing child pornography. But the Conservatives are proud of the
:39:25. > :39:30.work they put in. We are winning boroughs we have not held since
:39:31. > :39:34.1982. Losing Kingston left the Liberal Democrats with just one
:39:35. > :39:39.cancel in London, Sutton. In boroughs where they faced the Labour
:39:40. > :39:44.Party, they have been wiped out. Islington, Southwark, Lambeth, they
:39:45. > :39:48.have been reduced to few, if any, councillors. That'll make it more
:39:49. > :39:52.difficult for them in future to win parliamentary seats or to build
:39:53. > :39:55.their way back in local government. The strong showing for Labour was
:39:56. > :39:58.not replicated in the rest of the country, reading many to ask why the
:39:59. > :40:07.capital is now so different politically.
:40:08. > :40:17.Where to start? Haro was one back by Labour, a pretty bad night for the
:40:18. > :40:20.good 70s, why did it happen? Taking my borough, the same result happened
:40:21. > :40:28.in 2010, the symbol of seats for the two major parties, and what we have
:40:29. > :40:32.to look at across London is, we had two elections the same day, people
:40:33. > :40:38.voted for the European elections, in large part of London, there were no
:40:39. > :40:42.ticket candidates. We will see the European results later, but the
:40:43. > :40:47.voters have the choice about the local council elections. We do not
:40:48. > :40:55.know what they did. For us, the local level, in large parts of
:40:56. > :41:00.London, we did extremely well, we held our share, and in many parts of
:41:01. > :41:05.London, we moved forward. You are not on the marginal list, but you
:41:06. > :41:13.Labour need a 3% swing to beat you in the next election? Don't you feel
:41:14. > :41:16.you are looking a lot less safe? My seat, we help all of our council
:41:17. > :41:22.seats and we won the popular vote by quite a long way. In the wards in
:41:23. > :41:29.your constituency, there were somewhere there was a swing towards
:41:30. > :41:36.Labour, three or 4%. No. None at all? You can look at individual
:41:37. > :41:40.results. You feel the same as you felt a week ago about what your
:41:41. > :41:46.position was? What we have, the Liberal Democrat vote went away in
:41:47. > :41:49.large parts of London, and it was a straight vote between us and the
:41:50. > :41:54.Labour Party. The choice that we are going to put is simple, you want Ed
:41:55. > :41:59.Miliband in number ten or David Cameron? Diane Abbott said that
:42:00. > :42:03.people like Vince Cable and yourself, despite the incumbency and
:42:04. > :42:10.the fact you have had in Southwark, you are goners. Anybody who predicts
:42:11. > :42:14.a year out is foolish. Labour had a good night in London, much better in
:42:15. > :42:19.London than elsewhere in the country, UKIP did not make a
:42:20. > :42:22.breakthrough in London, I am pleased about that, which says something
:42:23. > :42:28.about the cosmopolitan nature of London. We did best in Southwark
:42:29. > :42:34.against any Labour facing seat in London. We still retained a majority
:42:35. > :42:38.of the seats we retained. If you years back, you run the council. We
:42:39. > :42:46.have never had a majority in Southwark, Labour have had it
:42:47. > :42:51.historically. We would have liked to have held all of our seats, but we
:42:52. > :42:59.defended the majority of the seats we were fighting, both in the
:43:00. > :43:05.borough and my patch. The number of councillors... When you need foot
:43:06. > :43:11.soldiers, people fighting these campaigns, you have been known to
:43:12. > :43:17.fight this battle is well, you have not got the platform any more. We
:43:18. > :43:25.held sodden with an increased majority, we lost Kingston, and in
:43:26. > :43:33.other places, we did well, Haringey retained it together can present.
:43:34. > :43:42.There were places where we were sadly eliminated, but this was not
:43:43. > :43:46.against Labour. I gave the Tories, we have done much better, and with a
:43:47. > :43:54.year to go, we will concentrate on the places where we can win. Is this
:43:55. > :43:59.really good for Labour, but if you bury down, you take the point about
:44:00. > :44:06.not much difference in some of the share, a lot of the seats you need
:44:07. > :44:09.to win next year, when you see it is Liberal Democrat voters that have
:44:10. > :44:13.not gone for them, which has allowed you to win control of the councils,
:44:14. > :44:19.it is not really an optimistic position today? We are very pleased
:44:20. > :44:24.with what happened as a result of her people voted. We have 200 more
:44:25. > :44:28.councillors across London, the Liberal Democrats and Tories have
:44:29. > :44:35.fewer councillors, and we hold five more councils. I think people have
:44:36. > :44:39.heard our arguments about trying to control rent, so people do not find
:44:40. > :44:45.they cannot afford their rent, Labour councils have been promising
:44:46. > :44:52.and building more homes, helping with childcare costs. There is a
:44:53. > :44:57.question of what the label -- the Labour council manifesto has been
:44:58. > :45:00.offering people. Also, we have got a lot of Labour members who have been
:45:01. > :45:05.knocking on doors, talking to people. There is a lot of
:45:06. > :45:08.disaffection with politics, people feel politicians do not understand
:45:09. > :45:11.their lives, so the fact we have had a big campaign means that people
:45:12. > :45:20.have seen the political people on their doorstep. Might it not be
:45:21. > :45:23.really frustrating that all that work might be happening in London
:45:24. > :45:29.but because of the leadership of the party perhaps, and how that is
:45:30. > :45:35.working on the doorstep, it might come to nothing next year. On this I
:45:36. > :45:40.agree with Simon, it is slightly invidious to predict from here what
:45:41. > :45:48.will happen in 2015 because we are in an unprecedented situation with
:45:49. > :45:54.the Lib Dems in coalition... For you it could get worse, couldn't
:45:55. > :45:59.it? In the marginal constituencies, there are senses that we are making
:46:00. > :46:02.progress there. We did exceptionally well in London but in the rest of
:46:03. > :46:10.the country as well. It could only get worse if you are speaking as a
:46:11. > :46:13.London MP that wants to get re-elected. The reason why we have a
:46:14. > :46:18.discussion about the cost of living and about people not being able to
:46:19. > :46:22.make ends meet and be an affordability of rent and childcare
:46:23. > :46:29.and transport, that is because of Ed Miliband saying that the cost of
:46:30. > :46:34.living is an issue, can we discuss it. Do you think they hear that from
:46:35. > :46:42.him, rather than deciding... They know it is Labour and Ed Miliband --
:46:43. > :46:48.under Ed Miliband that has been saying your fuel bill is a problem.
:46:49. > :46:54.The truth is that even from opposition, Ed Miliband has set the
:46:55. > :46:57.agenda. Even though people say the streets of London are paved with
:46:58. > :47:03.gold there is a real affordability issue there. Hammersmith and Fulham,
:47:04. > :47:09.you will be familiar, you have a good knowledge, what happened there?
:47:10. > :47:19.It is a massive defeat. Hammersmith and Fulham was a long-time Labour
:47:20. > :47:27.borough, a surprise gain for us... 2002 you first took it, 12 years you
:47:28. > :47:32.have had it. We can forget ancient history then. The key is that they
:47:33. > :47:37.did a really good job of reducing the burden of taxation, improving
:47:38. > :47:41.services, but on the day, and I think we have all analysed these
:47:42. > :47:48.results to death, but on the day people went out and decided, OK, one
:47:49. > :47:52.of the issues is that the success of the Coalition government in enabling
:47:53. > :47:59.councils to freeze council tax means that a lot of people feel it is not
:48:00. > :48:05.such a big issue any more. Really? This shows... Are you saying Labour
:48:06. > :48:10.authorities reducing and council tax shouldn't matter so much? There is
:48:11. > :48:14.less risk to voters of having a council that is high spending
:48:15. > :48:19.because they know it is frozen thanks to a government grant. At a
:48:20. > :48:24.localised level, what are you competing on? What are you selling
:48:25. > :48:29.to people? So we end up with a lot of people voting on national issues.
:48:30. > :48:36.Presumably you would argue your party is not delivering on the local
:48:37. > :48:39.list agenda? Lots of power is being transferred to local authorities and
:48:40. > :48:44.two cities, we need to move faster and one of the things I want to see
:48:45. > :48:48.is more power pop in the hands of local politicians. The last words on
:48:49. > :48:53.this section, we have just identified the problem but what do
:48:54. > :48:58.you do now about getting back in this short time? The party must feel
:48:59. > :49:02.so demoralised. It is issues that matter at the end of the day, we
:49:03. > :49:08.have done well on lots of things like income tax and
:49:09. > :49:12.apprenticeships, the two big issues people feel angry about are the
:49:13. > :49:17.widening gap between the rich and the rest, and the fact that people
:49:18. > :49:33.on normal wages cannot afford houses in London. Two proposals could be
:49:34. > :49:38.getting rid of bedroom tax... The big talking point has been the big
:49:39. > :49:42.gains made by UKIP throughout the country. Nigel Farage said the fox
:49:43. > :49:46.had got into the Westminster henhouse but here in London it felt
:49:47. > :49:52.like the fox getting in through a hole in the perimeter fence.
:49:53. > :49:57.Last week UKIP had 24 councillors in London, they now found themselves
:49:58. > :49:59.with half but London picking up just 12 seats out of more than 1800
:50:00. > :50:21.available in the capital. Pave ring had been their number one
:50:22. > :50:27.target. -- Havering. Our voluntary structure in London is behind, 12,
:50:28. > :50:32.18 months behind where it is in other parts of the country. Others
:50:33. > :50:38.will tell you UKIP had a more profound effect than the results
:50:39. > :50:47.might suggest. What has happened is that UKIP of taking votes from us.
:50:48. > :50:55.In this area, the seat has been turned from Labour to an area with
:50:56. > :51:00.no overall control. The fear of immigration perhaps in Europe is
:51:01. > :51:00.greater where the numbers of migrants
:51:01. > :51:10.determine the outcome of the general election. The Mayor of London said
:51:11. > :51:16.he thinks the Conservatives need to argue for new restrictions on EU
:51:17. > :51:21.migration. We should support a sinus -- support a society that is willing
:51:22. > :51:26.to allow people to make their lives, if and only if they are willing to
:51:27. > :51:31.work. But we cannot do that with our current structure, anyone can come
:51:32. > :51:36.over and that is what Nigel Farage is picking up on. What are your
:51:37. > :51:40.thoughts on that? I think you need to have a system that allows you to
:51:41. > :51:45.insist that when people come here, they do so because they are highly
:51:46. > :51:50.qualified and they have a job to do. So we need to renegotiate the
:51:51. > :51:54.current rules? It has been my view for a long time. The mayor will be
:51:55. > :52:01.hoping this is a message that resonates not just with the voter
:52:02. > :52:08.but the leadership of his party. Lawrence Webb, the UKIP councillor
:52:09. > :52:12.elected in Havering again, is here with us.
:52:13. > :52:16.You got elected, but what on earth happened? Bear in mind that in 2010
:52:17. > :52:25.we didn't have any councillors elected in London. This time we have
:52:26. > :52:34.450 in places we have never stood before. You had a presence... Where
:52:35. > :52:43.we haven't got elected, we are very much the runner-up. If you look at
:52:44. > :52:52.results in Havering, in all but that we have been a runner-up in all the
:52:53. > :52:55.places we haven't won. You went in with 12, defectors from
:52:56. > :53:07.Conservatives or whatever. One or two of those were in very strong
:53:08. > :53:11.safe Tory seat. One of the safest Conservative seat is now marginal.
:53:12. > :53:16.Clearly you are probably disappointed you didn't get quite
:53:17. > :53:21.what you hoped. We all want to win more. I want to explore the issue
:53:22. > :53:26.about why it is, why is there a limit to the appeal of UKIP in
:53:27. > :53:30.London? I don't think there is. I think it is more to do with the fact
:53:31. > :53:37.we don't have a history of fighting in these seats. We put up 400
:53:38. > :53:41.candidates... No one can be unaware UKIP were standing and hoping to
:53:42. > :53:46.make progress in these elections. They don't need to have seen you
:53:47. > :53:54.before, do they? Of course, people need to have seen you in the area.
:53:55. > :54:02.UKIP have stolen a leaf from your book... When you hear about Suzanne
:54:03. > :54:05.Evans saying it is because people are more intelligent or because they
:54:06. > :54:10.read the newspapers, that is why they don't go to UKIP, do you agree
:54:11. > :54:20.with that? Not necessarily, London is a very diverse area. So you don't
:54:21. > :54:25.agree with what she says? Not particularly. I wonder why she might
:54:26. > :54:29.have said it. That is what you might have felt in her particular ward,
:54:30. > :54:35.but it is different across London. Naturally you would want to talk
:54:36. > :54:39.about Havering, but in London you haven't got one councillor. You said
:54:40. > :54:43.you don't accept there is any particular limit to your appeal in
:54:44. > :54:48.London. It is to do with where we have been working the ground. In
:54:49. > :54:55.2010 we put up less than 100 candidates, we put up more than 450
:54:56. > :54:59.this time. In the key areas we have often come as runner-up. Is that
:55:00. > :55:05.where they have been most devastating, that they have split
:55:06. > :55:12.your vote in places, as the leader of Croydon Council said? What we
:55:13. > :55:17.should be concentrating on is why voters are voting for a political
:55:18. > :55:25.party, what is it about the message? What do we, as all politicians? --
:55:26. > :55:30.as all politicians, have to learn from that? What do you feel it is
:55:31. > :55:37.about the UKIP threat? There is a concern from many people about the
:55:38. > :55:48.levels of immigration. In my London -- in my borough there is an
:55:49. > :55:53.enormous influx of people. One of the most important things is that
:55:54. > :55:57.almost all of those people who have come to our area have work, they are
:55:58. > :56:03.contributing to the economy and they have made it their choice. What a
:56:04. > :56:07.lot of people fear is people who come here to take a lifetime of
:56:08. > :56:16.benefits. We hear today, Harriet Harman, that Theresa May was
:56:17. > :56:21.thinking of deporting people if they don't have a job, would you go along
:56:22. > :56:26.with that? As far as deportation is concerned, I do think we should
:56:27. > :56:32.toughen the limits, toughen the situation if people come here and
:56:33. > :56:40.commit a crime. The free movement of labour, yes, but the other thing, it
:56:41. > :56:44.is about what happens when you come to somebody else's country. If you
:56:45. > :56:51.come and you work and contribute, after a while it is fair enough... I
:56:52. > :56:55.think the question is how soon you can take out of the system by way of
:56:56. > :57:01.benefits if you haven't been working here and putting into the system. I
:57:02. > :57:05.think people want a bit of fairness put into the system. People won't
:57:06. > :57:11.come here if they cannot get jobs or get benefits. I think people want
:57:12. > :57:15.fairness in the system, and if people are coming and working hard,
:57:16. > :57:20.people will accept that but they don't like the idea they come here,
:57:21. > :57:24.drive without insurance, run people over and still don't get deported.
:57:25. > :57:31.The Mayor of London is saying we have got to look again, only
:57:32. > :57:35.allowing high skilled European workers coming here. The rules are
:57:36. > :57:40.that we are common market, lots of Brits go to live in Spain. The way
:57:41. > :57:49.we deal with that is to make sure more people are skilled, and that is
:57:50. > :57:54.why we -- why the apprenticeships are so important. I agree with
:57:55. > :58:00.Harriet that for those who abuse this country, then clearly different
:58:01. > :58:03.rules have to apply. Why not renegotiate those rules so you
:58:04. > :58:09.wouldn't let these people in in the first place? The fundamental
:58:10. > :58:13.principle of the European Union is that there is free movement. You
:58:14. > :58:19.cannot rewrite retrospectively the conditions on which we entered. We
:58:20. > :58:21.have always said we should toughen up controls so that we should
:58:22. > :58:28.toughen up controls so that recounts people out as well as count people
:58:29. > :58:32.in. I think actually there is more of a consensus. London didn't vote
:58:33. > :58:37.UKIP because London is not a right-wing place, and most people in
:58:38. > :58:42.London who come from other parts of the EU come and work and they are
:58:43. > :58:50.well respected and therefore it is a mark integrated city. We have seen
:58:51. > :58:55.what the Ashcroft poll says, concerns about marginals, so what
:58:56. > :58:59.should your party do between now and next year? Obviously we will look at
:59:00. > :59:04.the issues around immigration, and my personal view is that if people
:59:05. > :59:09.commit crime here they should be deported. We should also review the
:59:10. > :59:12.benefits system to make it contributory. Thank you. With that,
:59:13. > :59:24.back to you, Andrew. Welcome back. Mutterings among Lib
:59:25. > :59:28.Dems about Nick Clegg's leaderships, as we reported at the top of the
:59:29. > :59:34.show, and tonight it could get even worse when we get the results of the
:59:35. > :59:39.European elections. Paddy Ashdown, former Lib Dem leader, joins me now
:59:40. > :59:43.from our Westminster studio. Something has to change for the Lib
:59:44. > :59:51.Dems, if Nick Clegg isn't the change what will it be? The messages we
:59:52. > :00:03.have about reducing tax on the poorest, they now have traction. We
:00:04. > :00:09.have been on many programmes of this sort before, this idea that has been
:00:10. > :00:12.put about by these people who are calling for a leadership election is
:00:13. > :00:18.the silliest idea I have heard in my political career. It is not serious
:00:19. > :00:22.politics. This is the moment when we need to get out with a really good
:00:23. > :00:27.message and campaign through the summer in the context of the general
:00:28. > :00:36.election. Spending it on a divisive leadership contest is ridiculous. At
:00:37. > :00:45.the very moment when our sacrifices are beginning to gain traction, we
:00:46. > :00:50.turn in on ourselves. The question is, can the Liberal Democrats hack
:00:51. > :00:55.being in government? If we were to take this step, the anther would be
:00:56. > :01:01.no, and that would damage the party forever. It is clearly a problem,
:01:02. > :01:05.you have had to come out and defend Nick Clegg, we have not even had the
:01:06. > :01:12.European election results yet. It could get even worse by midnight. I
:01:13. > :01:17.have been up here anyway, to argue the party's case in the context of
:01:18. > :01:26.tonight. Let me try to put this in scale. We have a website which
:01:27. > :01:31.people can join to show their ascent to the fact that they like cake, it
:01:32. > :01:36.is called Liberal Democrats like cake, it has more people signed up
:01:37. > :01:43.than this website that is calling for a leadership election. Something
:01:44. > :01:49.like 200, of course this happens from time to time, the wonder is you
:01:50. > :01:51.are talking -- you are taking it seriously. Your colleagues are
:01:52. > :01:58.taking it seriously, including sitting MPs. People trot out a list
:01:59. > :02:02.of achievements that the party would like to be associated with, he began
:02:03. > :02:09.doing just that, but you have been doing that for months, if not for
:02:10. > :02:13.over a year, your ratings in the polls are terrible, you had a
:02:14. > :02:17.terrible local election, and you will probably have a terrible
:02:18. > :02:21.European election. It will cut through much better in the context
:02:22. > :02:26.of an election, we have been talking about the European elections. We
:02:27. > :02:34.have been here a long time, let me take you back, we have had tough
:02:35. > :02:39.times, in 1989, we came last in every constituency in Britain, save
:02:40. > :02:47.one, behind the Green party. One or two voices said, you have got to
:02:48. > :02:51.ditch the leader, me, you had one of them on earlier, John Hemmings, as I
:02:52. > :02:56.recall. One or two said we had to change course, but we stood our
:02:57. > :02:58.ground, and in the general election we not only re-established our
:02:59. > :03:05.position from a base of almost nothing, we laid the basis and
:03:06. > :03:10.foundation for doubling our seats in 1997. That is what the party can do,
:03:11. > :03:19.they have a great message, and insert of wasting the summer and
:03:20. > :03:25.autumn on a leadership contest, we should be doing that. Nick Clegg had
:03:26. > :03:30.two opportunities to put part of that message across in the debate
:03:31. > :03:35.over Europe, but the party poll ratings fell after that. What Nick
:03:36. > :03:45.elected us to try to fill a vacuum of antique European rhetoric. And he
:03:46. > :03:49.lost. He could not change the best part of a generation of
:03:50. > :03:54.anti-European propaganda in a couple of performances? He lost the second
:03:55. > :03:59.debate more than the first. It is a long-term programme. Nick Clegg had
:04:00. > :04:08.the courage to take us into government. He took that decision
:04:09. > :04:13.before the party and gained 75, 80% support in a democratic vote. He has
:04:14. > :04:21.led the party with outstanding judgement. He has showed almost
:04:22. > :04:24.incredible grace under fire, being attacked from all sides, because
:04:25. > :04:29.some people hate the coalition, and he has the courage to do what no
:04:30. > :04:33.other Liberal Democrat leader has done, to stand up before the British
:04:34. > :04:41.people and say unequivocally, we are in favour of Europe. He is a man of
:04:42. > :04:46.courage, integrity, decency, he is one of the best prime ministers
:04:47. > :04:51.Britain has not got. In the context of a general election, that will go
:04:52. > :04:56.through. I am devoted to the man, he can do amazingly well in the general
:04:57. > :05:00.election. But he is losing local elections again and again, the
:05:01. > :05:04.European elections, and he is on track to lose the general election.
:05:05. > :05:11.European elections are not easy for us. Whatever happens tomorrow
:05:12. > :05:19.morning, it will not be bad -- as bad as 1989. We have had that line.
:05:20. > :05:24.In the context of a general election, we fought our way back,
:05:25. > :05:29.this time, we have been in government, we start from a higher
:05:30. > :05:32.base, we have a message to tell about how we alone have taken the
:05:33. > :05:37.tough decisions to get this country out of the worst economic mess it
:05:38. > :05:40.has ever seen, left to us by the Labour Party. We can go out in the
:05:41. > :05:46.context of a general election and fight for that. My guess is that the
:05:47. > :05:51.resurgence of the party in the context of a general election will
:05:52. > :05:58.be far greater than you are suggesting.
:05:59. > :06:05.We have done the Liberal Democrats, that move onto the other parties.
:06:06. > :06:09.How bad a leadership problem does Ed Miliband have? He has a continuation
:06:10. > :06:14.of a problem he has had for a long time. The Labour Party thought they
:06:15. > :06:18.had a soft lead, and they have the same situation, everybody is hanging
:06:19. > :06:22.on. They have to make a breakthrough. The big thing is that
:06:23. > :06:28.lots of people at Shadow Cabinet wish they had taken on UKIP, why was
:06:29. > :06:33.Labour turning its fire on the Liberal Democrats? They should have
:06:34. > :06:39.been taking on UKIP, and UKIP taken seats from them, such as in
:06:40. > :06:44.Rotherham. They have finally woken up. I think there is a class war
:06:45. > :06:49.breaking out, the northerners have taken against Ed Miliband and the
:06:50. > :06:55.Metropolitan sophisticates around them... One Labour MP has said, we
:06:56. > :07:02.do not want these guacamole eating people from North London! A number
:07:03. > :07:07.doing that. They wanted to take the fight to UKIP, because UKIP is
:07:08. > :07:14.getting working-class, Northern Labour votes. John Mann said it was
:07:15. > :07:18.ridiculous that the Labour Party did not put posters in the North of
:07:19. > :07:24.England to say that Nigel Farage regarded Margaret Thatcher as his
:07:25. > :07:29.heroine. But in a funny way, those Northern Labour MPs are speaking for
:07:30. > :07:32.the South, because the Labour Party will only win the general election
:07:33. > :07:36.if it takes back those seats in the south, the south-east, a couple of
:07:37. > :07:43.seats in the south-west that Tony Blair in 1997, and they acknowledge
:07:44. > :07:51.that. It is important to say they did win the local elections, they
:07:52. > :07:55.got 31%, but that was only to bustle -- two points hang-up the
:07:56. > :08:01.Conservatives. Neil Kinnock got 38% in 1991, the year before John Major
:08:02. > :08:06.got the largest in of votes ever. There is unease in the shadow
:08:07. > :08:11.cabinet about why Ed Miliband did not take on UKIP on immigration
:08:12. > :08:15.earlier. But Ed Miliband says, we should not be calling UKIP names, we
:08:16. > :08:20.should be calling them out, and he would say he did call them out. The
:08:21. > :08:24.unease in the party has made the results worse for them than they
:08:25. > :08:30.should have been, they did pretty well on Thursday. Although UKIP took
:08:31. > :08:36.votes from them in safe seats, in the end, it will not make much
:08:37. > :08:41.difference. UKIP is taking votes from Tories in marginals. It made it
:08:42. > :08:46.appear that Labour have not done well. Diane Abbott was right, a lot
:08:47. > :08:51.of the Labour MPs who came out on Friday morning had been practising
:08:52. > :08:57.their lines in expectation of a disappointing result. In the north,
:08:58. > :09:01.I do not think UKIP's status of the main nonlabour right-wing party will
:09:02. > :09:07.damage Labour. If you have a majority of 25,000... But in the
:09:08. > :09:11.South and Midlands, UKIP could break the non-Tory vote in such a way as
:09:12. > :09:19.to cost Labour marginal seats that they would otherwise win. As for the
:09:20. > :09:24.Tories, look back at 2009, UKIP 116 or 17% of the popular vote in the
:09:25. > :09:33.European elections and fell to 3% in the general election. You mentioned
:09:34. > :09:37.Europe, the Tories are anticipating finishing third, they did not do
:09:38. > :09:43.well on Thursday, they seem to be putting everything on Europe, we
:09:44. > :09:48.will beat UKIP in Newark. That is the line I am getting from them. The
:09:49. > :09:53.Liberal Democrats and Labour are nowhere there, they both got 20% of
:09:54. > :09:58.the vote, the Tories got 53%, a majority of 16,000. UKIP do not need
:09:59. > :10:04.to do well to have an enormous increase on last time. This seed is
:10:05. > :10:10.a referendum on Tories against UKIP, which we have not seen so far. I was
:10:11. > :10:17.there for the rocky road packed. David Cameron gave a piece of rocky
:10:18. > :10:22.road to Boris Johnson, saying, you know you want it, Boris. The Tories
:10:23. > :10:31.must be a head, because at the bakery stores, the blue buns outsold
:10:32. > :10:37.the UKIP buns. Ed Miliband bit off more than he
:10:38. > :10:40.could chew when he turned launch into a budgeted last week, but he is
:10:41. > :10:57.not the first politician to make a meal of it.
:10:58. > :11:37.I love a hot pasty, the choice was to have a small one or a large one,
:11:38. > :11:44.and I opted for the large one, and very good it was, too.
:11:45. > :11:50.The significance of the Ed Miliband business is more about the media, we
:11:51. > :11:56.can amplify nothingness, but because the narrative is that Ed Miliband is
:11:57. > :12:01.accident prone, even eating a big concern which becomes an accident.
:12:02. > :12:05.He is deemed to be weird, so we find pictures that support the
:12:06. > :12:11.conclusion. It is a class issue, you reveal your social class by what you
:12:12. > :12:17.eat, what supermarket you go to. You can play somebody accurately.
:12:18. > :12:21.Politicians are largely of a different class from the voters, and
:12:22. > :12:27.as soon as you ask them about food, it becomes apparent. To thine own
:12:28. > :12:30.self be true, David Cameron pretending he was interested in
:12:31. > :12:36.Cornish pasties, he does the cooking at the weekend, lots of posh food,
:12:37. > :12:41.do not pretend to be something you are not. The problem for Ed Miliband
:12:42. > :12:46.with that picture, he has some abnormal people working for him, but
:12:47. > :12:51.what he does not have is a broadcast person who can spot those pictures.
:12:52. > :12:57.George Osborne hired Theo Rogers from the BBC, she has
:12:58. > :13:01.transformed... She may have been guilty of the burger, but she has
:13:02. > :13:06.transformed his image on TV. That is what Ed Miliband needs. You are
:13:07. > :13:11.correct, it Ed Miliband was 15 points ahead in the polls, screwing
:13:12. > :13:16.up the eating of a bacon sandwich would be seen as an endearing trait.
:13:17. > :13:20.We might not have even noticed it. That is all this week, you can get
:13:21. > :13:27.those European election results with David Dimbleby on vote went to 14
:13:28. > :13:32.from 9pm on the BBC News Channel, and from 11pm on BBC One. No
:13:33. > :13:35.programme next week, but we are back in two weeks. If it is Sunday, it is
:13:36. > :14:11.the Sunday Politics. This week, Britain has voted for its
:14:12. > :14:14.Members of the European Parliament. What will the result tell us about
:14:15. > :14:22.the political mood here in Britain of the results
:14:23. > :14:26.both here and across Europe.