:00:37. > :00:43.Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.
:00:44. > :00:48.The advance of the Islamist army on Baghdad has been slowed.
:00:49. > :00:50.The Iraqi army claims the fightback has begun.
:00:51. > :00:52.But the country now faces a de facto partition.
:00:53. > :00:55.What should Britain, Europe, or the US be doing - if anything?
:00:56. > :00:58.It's been a big week in the Scottish referendum.
:00:59. > :01:02.But has the tone of the debate become too downright nasty?
:01:03. > :01:09.Both sides join us to go head to head.
:01:10. > :01:13.I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. What is the significance of
:01:14. > :01:15.that? And as World Cup sticker fever grips
:01:16. > :01:18.even Westminster, we'll be asking if any of the parties are looking
:01:19. > :01:21.to make last-minute substitutions The Sunni Islamist army known
:01:22. > :01:31.as ISIS is now in control In London, why the minority vote one
:01:32. > :01:32.recent elections Labour, but recent support amongst people is bigger
:01:33. > :01:43.than assumed. The Sunni Islamist army known
:01:44. > :01:46.as ISIS is now in control of huge swathes of northern
:01:47. > :01:48.and western Iraq, including Until the weekend they looked
:01:49. > :01:51.like advancing relentlessly on Baghdad but that offensive has
:01:52. > :01:54.now been slowed or even halted The Iraqi army
:01:55. > :01:58.and its Shia milita allies vow that Baghdad will not be taken and that
:01:59. > :02:05.a counter-attack will soon begin. Iraq's Shia Prime Minister Nouri
:02:06. > :02:08.al-Maliki has to do something to reverse the humiliation
:02:09. > :02:10.of recent days, which saw his US-trained and equipped Iraqi
:02:11. > :02:16.army, which outnumbered the Islamists 15 to 1 melt away or
:02:17. > :02:19.surrender when confronted by ISIS. The conflict has already created a
:02:20. > :02:22.humanitarian crisis, with hundreds The Kurds have used the conflict to
:02:23. > :02:32.consolidate their hold on their autonomous area in the north, parts
:02:33. > :02:36.of the west and the north are in the grip of ISIS control and the Shias
:02:37. > :02:39.are hunkering down in the east. All of which makes a three-way
:02:40. > :02:41.partition a real possibility with The US is moving another
:02:42. > :02:46.of its massive aircraft carrier battlefleets to the Gulf,
:02:47. > :02:48.though the White House shows no While Iran says it's ready to help
:02:49. > :02:53.its Shia allies and there are unconfoirmed reports
:02:54. > :02:55.that its revolutionary guard has Well, I'm joined now by Newsnight's
:02:56. > :03:14.diplomatic editor Mark Urban. Let's start with some basics. Who
:03:15. > :03:21.are ISIS and why are they controlling big chunks of Iraq? ISIS
:03:22. > :03:25.is an extremist militant jihad organisation and they have a pure
:03:26. > :03:29.Islamic concept based on 14th century history and jurisprudence.
:03:30. > :03:35.What they want to do is correct -- create this caliphate that do not
:03:36. > :03:39.recognise colonial boundaries so it involves Syria and Iraq, and they
:03:40. > :03:42.could go down to Lebanon and Palestine, that is all fair game as
:03:43. > :03:47.far as they are concerned. And they have this strict interpretation of
:03:48. > :03:53.Islam. The more interesting question is why have semi-Sunni Muslims,
:03:54. > :03:57.along with them, these are precisely the sort of people who in 2006,
:03:58. > :04:02.2007, tribal leaders in the west of the country rose up against. It was
:04:03. > :04:07.called the Awakening and the Americans in power did and
:04:08. > :04:12.bankrolled it. These people turned against them and admired them in
:04:13. > :04:14.large numbers, so why do they have so many Sunni Muslims on their
:04:15. > :04:18.side? We hear about people going back to Mosul. I think the answer is
:04:19. > :04:21.a perception back to Mosul. I think the answer
:04:22. > :04:25.that the current government is ruling in sectarian interests, Shia
:04:26. > :04:27.Muslim interest, and the Sunni Muslims want self-determination and
:04:28. > :04:32.this is their best bet. Muslims want self-determination and
:04:33. > :04:35.this is their Let me put up this map to find out where we are going. We
:04:36. > :04:40.can see Mosul in the north, they took that, and then they started,
:04:41. > :04:49.South, reports that the crit was involved -- to grit -- to grit. What
:04:50. > :04:53.is the situation on the ground now? We are in what you might call a
:04:54. > :05:01.consolidation or strategic pause as American called it in 2003. ISIS are
:05:02. > :05:04.trying to consolidate their power in Mosul, and now they have this major
:05:05. > :05:08.city and they are trying to show they can run the city and get the
:05:09. > :05:12.power going, etc. Their southernmost forces, that is a gorilla army, guys
:05:13. > :05:18.in pick-up trucks. They cannot deal with serious opposition. They would
:05:19. > :05:21.like to get the tanks and other things into action but that could
:05:22. > :05:26.take weeks for them to be able to do it. The government side is that they
:05:27. > :05:30.have counter-attacked, but it will take a little while before these
:05:31. > :05:33.newly raised militia and other task forces, call them what you will,
:05:34. > :05:33.newly raised militia and other task forces, call them what you will can
:05:34. > :05:39.forces, call them what you will, can effectively counter-attacked. But
:05:40. > :05:42.that is what will happen in the next week or two. We will see
:05:43. > :05:51.increasingly large and serious government counter-attacked trying
:05:52. > :05:56.to retake those places, and I fear a really difficult, bloody Syrian
:05:57. > :06:00.style street by street battle for some of these urban centres. I would
:06:01. > :06:06.like to have a look at this map, like to have a look at this map
:06:07. > :06:08.because the Kurds, as I mentioned, they are consolidating their
:06:09. > :06:14.position in the autonomous region in the north. The Islamist are taking
:06:15. > :06:20.over huge chunks of the Sunni Muslim West. And of course the Shia Muslim
:06:21. > :06:24.are still dominant in control of Baghdad and in parts of the south
:06:25. > :06:33.and east. Back to me looks like the beginnings of the partition of Iraq.
:06:34. > :06:36.-- back to me. Well, it is, but we have to caveat it in a few ways
:06:37. > :06:42.Firstly, there are millions of people in Iraq, so-called sushi
:06:43. > :06:46.combined families, who do not fit easily into the pattern. Do we see
:06:47. > :06:51.millions of people becoming refugees under this scheme? There would be a
:06:52. > :06:56.lot of human tragedies if people really did try to enforce this type
:06:57. > :07:03.partition. Secondly, there are Sunni Muslim communities in the south of
:07:04. > :07:08.Baghdad, those places, once again, a lot of misery and fighting will
:07:09. > :07:19.occur if people try to enforce a de facto partition. There are still an
:07:20. > :07:25.awakening of forces. They are on the side of the government. We heard
:07:26. > :07:29.about one group in Samarra of Sunni Muslims fighting on the same side.
:07:30. > :07:33.It's a complex picture. They factor, it does look like a partition, and
:07:34. > :07:39.if it goes further in that direction it will. And partition will always
:07:40. > :07:43.be messy because people end up on the wrong side of the lies.
:07:44. > :07:48.Finally, the big thing on that map, Iran, a huge place, a huge border
:07:49. > :07:55.with Shia Muslim Iraq. Iran now becomes a key factor. It is becoming
:07:56. > :07:58.a proxy war for Iran. Yes, when I was in Baghdad a few months ago, I
:07:59. > :07:59.was in Baghdad a few months ago I did actually see Iranians
:08:00. > :08:06.revolutionary guards in uniform. They were protecting a senior
:08:07. > :08:09.Iranians official, so some numbers have been never some time and they
:08:10. > :08:15.are also said to protect the political leaders and -- in his
:08:16. > :08:20.compound. They are there. We think more of them are trying to
:08:21. > :08:21.compound. They are there. We think the Iraqi army, and
:08:22. > :08:26.compound. They are there. We think allow the Iraqi government to fall.
:08:27. > :08:31.Mark, thank you for marking archive this morning. -- marking our card.
:08:32. > :08:33.Tony Blair took Britain into the Iraq conflict in 2003.
:08:34. > :08:36.He's now, among other things, envoy to the Middle East representing
:08:37. > :08:39.That's the UN, the EU, the US and Russia.
:08:40. > :08:41.This morning he entered the debate about what should be
:08:42. > :08:50.My point is simple. If you left Saddam in place in 2003, when 2011
:08:51. > :08:54.Saddam in place in 2003, when 2 11 happened and you have the Arab
:08:55. > :09:01.revolutions going through Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Egypt and
:09:02. > :09:04.Syria, you would still have had a major problem in Iraq. You can see
:09:05. > :09:08.what happens when you leave the dictator in place, as has happened
:09:09. > :09:13.with Bashar al-Assad. The problem doesn't go away. What I'm trying to
:09:14. > :09:16.say is, we can rerun the debates about 2003, and there are perfectly
:09:17. > :09:21.legitimate points on either side, but where we are in 2014, we have do
:09:22. > :09:22.understand that this is a regional problem, but a problem that will
:09:23. > :09:26.affect us. And I'm joined by the former Foreign
:09:27. > :09:28.Office minister Mark Malloch-Brown, Here in London are James Rubin,
:09:29. > :09:32.he was chief spokesman for the State Department under
:09:33. > :09:34.Bill Clinton, and Bayan Rahman, she represents the Kurdistan
:09:35. > :09:47.Regional government in the UK. Intervened in Iraq, it's a shambles,
:09:48. > :09:52.we don't intervene in Syria, it s a we don't intervene in Syria, it's a
:09:53. > :09:57.shambles. What lessons should we draw? That is a well framed
:09:58. > :10:01.question, because that is the problem. Tony Blair is half right.
:10:02. > :10:06.Iraq, like Syria, would probably have been a problem even without an
:10:07. > :10:11.intervention. But one wishes someone would tell him to stay quiet during
:10:12. > :10:15.moments like this, because it does drive a great surge of people in the
:10:16. > :10:18.other direction. The fact is, what has been missing in western politics
:10:19. > :10:24.towards the Middle East throughout both episodes, Syria and Iraq, is a
:10:25. > :10:29.drive to build an inclusive, democratic centre which is secular
:10:30. > :10:33.and nonsectarian. That has been missing amongst the threats of
:10:34. > :10:38.invasion Manon invasion, we have just constantly neglected the
:10:39. > :10:43.diplomatic nation-building dimensional this. I want to come
:10:44. > :10:47.onto what is happening on the ground. I want to begin with what
:10:48. > :10:49.the Western response by me, and by that we mean the United States,
:10:50. > :10:54.because of it doesn't do anything, nobody will do anything. All of the
:10:55. > :10:58.signals I see coming out of the White is that Barack Obama has no
:10:59. > :11:02.appetite for intervention -- out of the White House. I don't think he
:11:03. > :11:08.does have an appetite. He would be very unlikely to do anything very
:11:09. > :11:14.large. He might feel pressured to act because of the fact that this
:11:15. > :11:18.particular group, this Al-Qaeda inspired group, fits into the
:11:19. > :11:22.strategy he has pursued in Yemen and Afghanistan and Pakistan, to use
:11:23. > :11:32.drone strikes against individual terrorists. So it is possible that
:11:33. > :11:37.the threat of ISIS in the region and the West in general might inspire
:11:38. > :11:42.him to act, but the idea he will do enough, militarily, to transform
:11:43. > :11:49.Iraq from its current state of civil War into something along the lines
:11:50. > :11:54.that Mark was talking about, nation-building diplomacy, a big
:11:55. > :11:58.operation, I don't see President Obama sees his historic mission as
:11:59. > :12:03.having got the United States as out of it. Leave it to the Pacific,
:12:04. > :12:09.perhaps. What would the Kurds like the West to do? First of all, in
:12:10. > :12:13.Kurdistan we face a huge humanitarian crisis. We already have
:12:14. > :12:16.had bought a quarter of a million Syrian refugees and we were
:12:17. > :12:22.struggling to cope with that. And now we have at least double that
:12:23. > :12:25.number of refugees coming from Mosul. First and foremost, we are
:12:26. > :12:30.calling on the international community to help us with that. So
:12:31. > :12:33.we need humanitarian aid? Let's assume we do that in some way, maybe
:12:34. > :12:38.not enough, but what else if anything? I think it is an incumbent
:12:39. > :12:44.on the west and other powers to assist Iraq to get rid of ISIS. I
:12:45. > :12:51.think the Sunni Arab community, some of whom have joined ISIS and may be
:12:52. > :12:58.supported the uprising, have justified complaints against the
:12:59. > :13:01.federal government. But we need the terrorists out of Iraq. That is
:13:02. > :13:05.first and foremost. And what the West can do is not necessarily
:13:06. > :13:08.intervene with boots on the ground, but provide technical assistance,
:13:09. > :13:14.provide intelligence and help the Iraqi army and air force to be more
:13:15. > :13:21.targeted. Can you defend yourselves? In Kurdistan, we can in terms of the
:13:22. > :13:25.disciplined troops. In this situation, I hope they won't be
:13:26. > :13:30.abandoning their post, that is for sure. It is a national cause fires.
:13:31. > :13:36.But we are not armed in the way that the Iraqi army is -- cause for us.
:13:37. > :13:39.We are not armed in the way that ISIS seems to be now they have
:13:40. > :13:43.seized some of the American kit We are not asking for weapons, but we
:13:44. > :13:48.ask for assistance for all of Iraq to deal with the situation. Mark,
:13:49. > :13:53.this is not just an Iraqi problem. This is a regional conflict, and
:13:54. > :13:57.from the Levant on the shores of the Mediterranean, all the way through
:13:58. > :14:03.to the Gulf, the region is gripped with what is essentially a Sunni and
:14:04. > :14:07.Shia Muslim sectarian war. Yes, with the caveats that Mark bourbon made
:14:08. > :14:11.earlier, it's not quite that straightforward, but the basic
:14:12. > :14:15.divide is exactly that -- Mark Urban. People have been looking for
:14:16. > :14:19.this to begin in Lebanon or Jordan and have been taken by surprise
:14:20. > :14:25.although with hindsight I'm not sure why, that it has begun in Iraq
:14:26. > :14:28.instead. At its most extreme, it risks redrawing the 20th century
:14:29. > :14:33.boundaries of the region in a way which would be highly unstable
:14:34. > :14:38.because it would pit a Shia Muslim bloc against the Sunni Muslim bloc
:14:39. > :14:43.and would undo all of the sort of social and economic advance of the
:14:44. > :14:48.last century, so the stakes are suddenly very, very high indeed. Are
:14:49. > :14:54.we seeing the redrawing? The lines were drawn secretly, not far from
:14:55. > :14:57.here, about a mile away, and may have survived through thick and
:14:58. > :15:03.thin. They now look pretty fragile. The map is being redrawn. I think it
:15:04. > :15:09.is true that there is a key factor partition going on -- des facto.
:15:10. > :15:15.partition going on -- des facto Woodrow Wilson probably gave a bit
:15:16. > :15:19.of a hand to the promotion of the idea of self-determination, and in a
:15:20. > :15:22.way, there is a self determination going on, particularly in the
:15:23. > :15:25.Kurdish region, and perhaps they may end up the big winners in all of
:15:26. > :15:31.this, because they have proceeded with a relatively moderate,
:15:32. > :15:39.reconcilable government. The key thing that the Kurdish region has
:15:40. > :15:45.done. They used to fight the two groups, and now they fight together.
:15:46. > :15:50.What the Sunni Muslims have not done is figure out how to let politics
:15:51. > :15:59.let the side things instead of guns. We need to look clearly and in Syria
:16:00. > :16:06.and Iraq, if there is a Sunni extremist with ISIS that carves out
:16:07. > :16:11.a place for itself, it will be the great irony of the modern era.
:16:12. > :16:13.President Bush said he wanted to go into Iraq to fight terrorism. There
:16:14. > :16:18.was no terrorist. There are now. into Iraq to fight terrorism. There
:16:19. > :16:23.was no terrorist. There are now If in Iraq and Syria together thereat a
:16:24. > :16:28.thousand strong Al-Qaeda capability that threatens the region, the
:16:29. > :16:48.West, the world, we are all going to have to do something about it.
:16:49. > :16:58.The danger is that power will spread. This could grow in power.
:16:59. > :17:04.You would not want it on your southern border. Absolutely, we
:17:05. > :17:07.would not. The point we are all making indirectly is that things
:17:08. > :17:12.have changed in Iraq and will never be the same again. Whether Iraq
:17:13. > :17:13.completely disintegrates into three countries, or whether it stays
:17:14. > :17:15.together as one country, but a countries, or whether it stays
:17:16. > :17:21.together as one country, but loose federation, either way, Iraq has
:17:22. > :17:27.changed. It will not go back to what it was. I hope it will change for
:17:28. > :17:35.the better. I think we're at the make or break point for Iraq. Either
:17:36. > :17:39.the political readers -- the political leaders of a right wake up
:17:40. > :17:43.and smell the coffee and put aside their differences or there will be
:17:44. > :17:50.problems. This provides that opportunity, in a very nasty way. If
:17:51. > :17:55.we take it? Yes, and if not, I think this is the end of a rack as we know
:17:56. > :18:04.it. If anything resembling a caliphate emerges, that is very
:18:05. > :18:07.destabilising for the region itself. More so I would suggest than even
:18:08. > :18:12.the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. At some stage, you have
:18:13. > :18:26.to assume that they will be coming for us. That is correct. This is
:18:27. > :18:30.extremely dangerous. The only way forward is for these political
:18:31. > :18:34.groups to talk to each other and find a compromise that allows the
:18:35. > :18:37.rates of cinemas and minorities in Iraq to be protected within or the
:18:38. > :18:41.rates of cinemas and minorities in Iraq to be protected with an
:18:42. > :18:45.autonomous federal-state. Any support for the government must be
:18:46. > :18:57.premised on that. There is no military solution for this which is
:18:58. > :19:05.in during -- there is no military solution for this. There must be
:19:06. > :19:09.serious political negotiation, not with ISIS, but with Sunni Muslim
:19:10. > :19:14.moderates, to form a more representative government. This is
:19:15. > :19:19.the last chance for Iraq. I think we are all saying that that is going to
:19:20. > :19:21.need to be some major western leadership to make some big
:19:22. > :19:27.decisions here for the future of the region. I am concerned that after
:19:28. > :19:32.Afghanistan and Iraq, my country is quite world-weary, quite
:19:33. > :19:38.world-weary. It does not seem to be giving leadership. Certainly we are
:19:39. > :19:41.not seeing that in Europe. I am deeply concerned that we are not
:19:42. > :19:47.going to take the leadership role that needs to be taken. These are
:19:48. > :19:52.big issues. When Britain and France carved up the Middle East, they were
:19:53. > :19:56.world powers, operating as global powers, and without that global
:19:57. > :20:00.leadership by somebody, this is just going to get worse and worse. I
:20:01. > :20:04.think we will leave it there, thank you very much.
:20:05. > :20:10.The danger is that power will spread. This could grow in power.
:20:11. > :20:13.It is just under 100 days until the referendum on Scottish independence.
:20:14. > :20:15.So, for once, it'll be a long hot-summer
:20:16. > :20:20.But the campaign isn't just getting heated.
:20:21. > :20:22.In places it's also down-right nasty. When
:20:23. > :20:24.Scotland's best-selling author announced she was giving
:20:25. > :20:26.the unionist cause a million pounds this week, she received
:20:27. > :20:34.Independence supporters online, so-called cybernats,
:20:35. > :20:37.called JK Rowling a traitor and much worse, using a variety of
:20:38. > :20:40.For its part, the Better Together campaign has been accused
:20:41. > :20:44.Even Gordon Brown seems to think so, and this week he criticised
:20:45. > :20:46.Conservative ministers for relying on "threats
:20:47. > :20:51.With the Edinburgh Festival approaching, reports suggest even
:20:52. > :20:53.comedians are now reluctant to engage in the subject because
:20:54. > :21:00.I'm joined by Blair Jenkins from Yes Scotland and Jackie Baillie
:21:01. > :21:15.They're both in our Glasgow studio, and they're going head to head.
:21:16. > :21:21.Blair Jenkins, let me come to you first. Why have you and the Better
:21:22. > :21:25.Together campaign and Alex Salmond not done more to slap down the cyber
:21:26. > :21:30.nationalists who are poisoning the debate? Good morning. I think both
:21:31. > :21:34.sides tried to stop the tiny number of people on both sides who are
:21:35. > :21:40.incapable of controlling themselves. We should not get this
:21:41. > :21:44.out of proportion. We are having a fantastic, decent and democratic
:21:45. > :21:49.debate. The people who probably total no more than 100 on both sides
:21:50. > :21:53.who post offensive material or not to be allowed to deflect from that
:21:54. > :21:57.fact. Of course there are nasty people on the Better Together side
:21:58. > :22:01.as well, but are you saying there are as many of those as the cyber
:22:02. > :22:07.nationalists? I have not done the Kent. Lots of people are certainly
:22:08. > :22:12.posting nasty in defensive things to people in the yes campaigners well.
:22:13. > :22:18.I imagine that people do what I do, and block them. You stop them from
:22:19. > :22:24.sending anything further. There is a democratic and in gauging progress
:22:25. > :22:28.going on throughout Scotland. It is characterised by good humour and
:22:29. > :22:34.good debate. We should not get out of proportion and the activities of
:22:35. > :22:37.the number of people. I want to get to Jackie Baillie. The debate is
:22:38. > :22:41.actually pretty good-humoured and you should be doing more about the
:22:42. > :22:47.nasties on your side as well? I think we have reached a new low this
:22:48. > :22:49.week. Despite many people engaging in the politics of the decision and
:22:50. > :22:56.the debate about that, whether we want to retain the best of both
:22:57. > :23:00.worlds are separate from the United Kingdom, what we have seen is the
:23:01. > :23:08.most abusive and vitriolic attack, particularly on women, JK Rowling
:23:09. > :23:12.and a Labour supporter who dared to support the no campaign. When you
:23:13. > :23:17.look at the number of people on social media, there are more from
:23:18. > :23:20.the yes campaign than the no site. We should all be condemning attacks,
:23:21. > :23:28.from whatever quarter they come. from whatever quarter they come
:23:29. > :23:32.This seemed to be connected to the office of the First Minister. What
:23:33. > :23:37.is the evidence for that? There was an e-mail from one of the... I
:23:38. > :23:46.understand about that, but it did not use vile words. It did not, but
:23:47. > :23:51.it repeated the same mistake as on the website. We should be clear that
:23:52. > :23:56.we need to condemn these attacks, but it is not just the water works,
:23:57. > :24:01.it is taking action. There was an IpsosMORI poll this week which was
:24:02. > :24:05.varying testing. It showed the population as a whole, farmer people
:24:06. > :24:10.think that Yes Scotland is running an effective campaign as against
:24:11. > :24:19.Better Together. It is a undecided voters think this by a majority of
:24:20. > :24:23.four 21. Some people are worried about of the campaign. JK Rowling,
:24:24. > :24:29.Scotland's most successful author of all time. She gives ?1 million to
:24:30. > :24:33.the Better Together campaign. She then faces some of the most
:24:34. > :24:40.incredible abuse. I know what it is like because I have had some myself.
:24:41. > :24:46.Traitor, Quisling. I cannot use some of the words, it is Sunday morning.
:24:47. > :24:50.Why does Scottish Nationalists culture have such a revolting
:24:51. > :24:54.fringe? JK Rowling is entitled to our views and it is unacceptable if
:24:55. > :24:59.people say offensive things about her or anyone else who voices and
:25:00. > :25:03.opinion in this debate. Who are obese people? When you look at the
:25:04. > :25:06.accounts of some of the people who were posting these things about JK
:25:07. > :25:11.Rowling, they were using the same sort of language about film stars
:25:12. > :25:18.and football stars. This was just part of their language on Twitter.
:25:19. > :25:26.How often has Alex Salmond condemned the cyber nationalists? Very often.
:25:27. > :25:29.Everyone in the campaign hands. By common consent, Yes Scotland is
:25:30. > :25:35.running a thoroughly positive campaign, much more positive than
:25:36. > :25:40.Better Together. Jackie Baillie, it hardly helps matters when Alistair
:25:41. > :25:43.Darling, who runs your campaign, compares Alex Salmond to Kim Jong Il
:25:44. > :25:49.and North Korea. That hardly elevates the debate? I think we need
:25:50. > :25:55.to elevate the debate. There are less than a hundred days to go. It
:25:56. > :26:02.is a massive decision. We need to elevate the debate beyond attacks. I
:26:03. > :26:08.think there is much more that Yes Scotland and the SNP can do. You
:26:09. > :26:14.have made that point. Why are you running a campaign based on fear?
:26:15. > :26:21.The codename of your campaign is even project fear. It is threats.
:26:22. > :26:25.You cannot have the pound, there will be no shipbuilding. You will be
:26:26. > :26:28.flooded by immigrants. Why are you so negative? I am not negative at
:26:29. > :26:31.all and neither is the campaign. so negative? I am not negative at
:26:32. > :26:33.all and neither is the campaign The all and neither is the campaign. The
:26:34. > :26:36.campaign has asked questions and I think it is legitimate to ask
:26:37. > :26:40.questions of the people proposing such a fundamental change. People
:26:41. > :26:45.care about the economy, their jobs, their families. What would happen to
:26:46. > :26:51.them if they leave the rest of the United Kingdom. I think it is
:26:52. > :26:56.legitimate to ask questions. I refuse to be asked of
:26:57. > :27:02.scaremongering. People deserve answers. The yes campaign is equally
:27:03. > :27:10.guilty of some of the most outrageous scaremongering. Maybe you
:27:11. > :27:14.are both scaremongering. Blair Jenkins, the First Minister said of
:27:15. > :27:21.the cyber nationalists, that they are just Daft folk, as if they were
:27:22. > :27:22.mischievous little children. It is worse than that. When you look at
:27:23. > :27:29.what they say, they are twisted, what they say, they are twisted
:27:30. > :27:33.perhaps even evil minds. I would not disagree with his comments, but they
:27:34. > :27:37.are directed at just a small number of people. The story of this
:27:38. > :27:43.campaign is not the story of what people are saying on Twitter. Around
:27:44. > :27:49.Scotland, lots of people are getting engaged in debate to have been tuned
:27:50. > :27:53.out of the political process. Today, we have 47% support for the yes
:27:54. > :27:58.campaign. The movement in the campaign is towards yes. People know
:27:59. > :28:05.we have a better campaign, a vision for Scotland. The latest poll of
:28:06. > :28:09.polls does not show that. Both sides, you always take the opinion
:28:10. > :28:14.polls that show you in the best light. All politicians do that.
:28:15. > :28:20.Jackie Baillie, your campaign is not just negative, it is patronising.
:28:21. > :28:26.You make dubious claims that Scots would be ?1400 better off by staying
:28:27. > :28:33.in the union, and then you say that the kids use the money to scoff 280
:28:34. > :28:36.hotdogs at the Edinburgh Festival. The fate of the nation is in your
:28:37. > :28:42.hands and that is the best you can do? I think you will find that the
:28:43. > :28:48.campaign is something that we are taking the message to people. Then
:28:49. > :28:56.why are you talking about hotdogs? I do not. The campaign did. We are
:28:57. > :28:59.taking a positive message to people across Scotland about the benefits
:29:00. > :29:04.of the United Kingdom. We believe we are stronger and more secure and
:29:05. > :29:08.more stable, being part of that family of nations that is the United
:29:09. > :29:13.Kingdom. At the same time, we have the strange and power over things
:29:14. > :29:19.like education and transport. I understand that. I am not doing the
:29:20. > :29:24.issues today, I am talking about the tone of the campaign. I have one
:29:25. > :29:30.very important question. Who would you supporting last night in the
:29:31. > :29:34.England-Italy match? I was not watching the game. I would be
:29:35. > :29:39.delighted to see England do well in this tournament. I have Argentina in
:29:40. > :29:43.the office sweepstake. I have to keep some attention on them, but I
:29:44. > :29:49.would be delighted to seeing Clint do well. That is because you think
:29:50. > :29:53.it will help your campaign. It will annoy the Scots. Jackie Baillie I
:29:54. > :29:55.annoy the Scots. Jackie Baillie? I was supporting England. I was also
:29:56. > :30:01.supporting Portugal. Now most of you probably missed last
:30:02. > :30:04.night's football match between England and Italy because
:30:05. > :30:07.you wanted to get an early night and England lost
:30:08. > :30:11.despite a plucky effort, I'm told. But even Westminster is
:30:12. > :30:14.in the grip of World Cup fever and with speculation
:30:15. > :30:16.about the fitness of each political party's team we sent Adam out to
:30:17. > :30:23.tackle some of the big players. Well, this is
:30:24. > :30:36.the closest I'll get to Rio. This year everybody seems to have
:30:37. > :30:41.gone a bit mad Belize, football stickers. Let's see who I will get.
:30:42. > :30:47.Oh, the suspense -- a bit mad for these. George Osborne? That is
:30:48. > :30:50.because we leapt on the bandwagon and made Alan political stickers.
:30:51. > :30:52.They're hotter than a Brazilian barbecue.
:30:53. > :30:54.And at Westminster they're turning into collector?s items.
:30:55. > :31:04.Sunday politics political stickers. We have one of you, Norman. Would
:31:05. > :31:06.you like it? Do you want to start collecting, Bob? Would you like a
:31:07. > :31:06.packet? collecting, Bob? Would you like a
:31:07. > :31:14.Thank you. No album, I'm afraid collecting, Bob? Would you like a
:31:15. > :31:19.Thank you. No album, I've got Michael Gove, next to to Reza, and
:31:20. > :31:26.two of the Prime Minister. -- next to Theresa. I am sure Michael has
:31:27. > :31:28.Theresa in her stick around, and vice versa.
:31:29. > :31:30.These Tory ones are proving very popular
:31:31. > :31:33.since she fell out with him out how to handle extremism in schools.
:31:34. > :31:36.And there's been open speculation about him taking on him in
:31:37. > :31:44.Then there are rumours of a reshuffle of the whole Tory album.
:31:45. > :31:54.Do you think there will be any swapping in the Tory leadership
:31:55. > :31:57.soon? Who knows? David Cameron has also got to replace the EU
:31:58. > :31:58.commissioner, Cathy Ashton, who is standing down.
:31:59. > :32:01.Does he go with the favourite the former health secretary
:32:02. > :32:04.Or the grassroots choice, Martin Callanan, the Tories old
:32:05. > :32:08.Or does he rehabilitate Andrew Mitchell after Plebgate?
:32:09. > :32:21.Do you fancy being European Commissioner? I would rather be
:32:22. > :32:25.spending the money on the world s spending the money on the world's
:32:26. > :32:27.poor and spending it well. Glad to hear it. Happy collecting.
:32:28. > :32:33.Right, there must be some Labour stickers out there.
:32:34. > :32:38.Right, there must be some Labour of the others? Can't I keep them
:32:39. > :32:39.all? This is almost the perfect team.
:32:40. > :32:42.There have been grumblings about the fitness of the Shadow
:32:43. > :32:46.And Ed Miliband's got a kicking in Liverpool after posing
:32:47. > :32:57.I'm told grown men are meeting up in pubs for sticker swaps -
:32:58. > :33:02.With Danny Finkelstein - Tory peer and Times columnist,
:33:03. > :33:14.He would be the card I would not want to trade. Do people want to
:33:15. > :33:17.trade him in? I don't think anybody wants to trade him in at the moment.
:33:18. > :33:21.He is the best person to lead the Labour party and will lead us into
:33:22. > :33:25.the next election. There's been a lot about Michael Gove, and he's
:33:26. > :33:27.very combative. That's been a huge strength as an education Secretary,
:33:28. > :33:31.despite the fact it's brought in trouble. I would think the prime
:33:32. > :33:35.minister would tell him not to get himself into peripheral battles at
:33:36. > :33:41.the moment but stick to what has been successful. I haven't got Nick
:33:42. > :33:47.Clegg, but I got me. Controversy amongst collectors of Lib Dems. I
:33:48. > :33:48.need to give away me in return for Nick Clegg. That would be far
:33:49. > :33:52.better. There you are. Some local parties are holding
:33:53. > :33:55.meetings about his leadership, but at one in Cambridge this week
:33:56. > :34:07.they voted to stick with him. You have got a Euro Commissioner.
:34:08. > :34:11.Why don't I swap, I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. Can I do
:34:12. > :34:14.that? What is the significance of that? Very significant. Happy
:34:15. > :34:17.collecting. These beauties are popping up
:34:18. > :34:20.everywhere, but sadly they won't Adam is still doing the samba around
:34:21. > :34:30.Westminster as I speak. I'm joined
:34:31. > :34:32.by three journalists who've been furiously swapping stickers
:34:33. > :34:34.throughout the show, they certainly weren't allowed to stay up to watch
:34:35. > :34:44.the football, it's Nick Watt, We will talk about Labour after the
:34:45. > :34:46.break, and I want to concentrate on the Tories, but the moment, Nick,
:34:47. > :34:55.senior Tories are saying privately that they might win next May. They
:34:56. > :35:01.are beginning to dream the dream. So why are they doing all this
:35:02. > :35:06.jockeying? I think the jockeying for the leadership is about a year old.
:35:07. > :35:11.What stoped it up was when Theresa gave a speech to the conference, and
:35:12. > :35:14.gave a speech to the conference and people said she was doing it just in
:35:15. > :35:19.case, when things were not looking too good. She is not on manoeuvres.
:35:20. > :35:23.I think it was a policy row that drove the differences with Michael
:35:24. > :35:26.Gove. But Michael Gove is on manoeuvres, and he is trying to
:35:27. > :35:33.protect George Osborne from, he believes, a serious threat from
:35:34. > :35:36.Boris Johnson and possibly Theresa. It is quite self-indulgent when you
:35:37. > :35:39.are a couple of points behind, the economy is going your way, to be
:35:40. > :35:51.involved in this sort of stuff. Extraordinary. It shows the toxic
:35:52. > :35:55.disease that gnaws at the entrails of the Tory party, and Cameron is
:35:56. > :36:00.their great asset. He is more popular than the party, he bridges
:36:01. > :36:02.the gap is, and he has an extraordinary dissemble and some
:36:03. > :36:07.pretending to be this moderate while never the lens -- nevertheless
:36:08. > :36:09.leading the most far right wing government we have had since the
:36:10. > :36:14.war, and that has been a brilliant piece of political Charente and they
:36:15. > :36:16.would be crazy to get rid of it -- political Charente.
:36:17. > :36:21.piece of political Charente and they would be crazy to get rid of it --
:36:22. > :36:23.charades. Does this rumble on? I have an unfashionable view as there
:36:24. > :36:29.aren't half as many leadership plots taking place in Westminster as we
:36:30. > :36:32.assume, and the willingness to read strategic calculation into anything
:36:33. > :36:38.that takes place comes from people watching I Claudius or house of
:36:39. > :36:43.cards. That hasn't been off -- on for years. I needed a reference from
:36:44. > :36:49.your time. I needed something. Maybe brief encounter? It's a stylised
:36:50. > :36:53.view of how politics works, and so much more in life is about
:36:54. > :36:59.randomness and mistakes. Boris Johnson, Theresa May, Michael Gove
:37:00. > :37:05.as George Osborne's man on earth, they are positioning themselves. --
:37:06. > :37:11.Janan wrote an eloquent comment this week about this, but there are
:37:12. > :37:14.certain realities that. Michael Gove had that famous dinner with Rupert
:37:15. > :37:17.Murdoch a few weeks ago in which he said that you must not make Boris
:37:18. > :37:20.Johnson leader of the Conservative party, George Osborne is my man.
:37:21. > :37:24.party, George Osborne is my man Theresa May set out her credo two
:37:25. > :37:27.years ago and people on her team were saying that she was doing it
:37:28. > :37:32.just in case. People are out there and are thinking of the future, but
:37:33. > :37:36.I do think Janan is right. In the village, in the thick of it mindset,
:37:37. > :37:45.you can get a bit carried away and you can be a bit in the famous. That
:37:46. > :37:51.is before your era. He died. What did he mean by it. You can get a bit
:37:52. > :37:55.carried away by it. I will have words with you during the break.
:37:56. > :37:57.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:37:58. > :38:00.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:38:01. > :38:04.Coming up here in 20 minutes, we'll be talking about Ed Miliband's
:38:05. > :38:16.First though, the Sunday Politics where you are.
:38:17. > :38:22.A little later on we will be hearing white building upwards is not
:38:23. > :38:26.necessarily the solution to the housing crisis, and coming up as
:38:27. > :38:30.well, Trevor Phillips tells us why it was support for ethnic minorities
:38:31. > :38:34.that gave Labour its London election victories. And why he thinks support
:38:35. > :38:37.for UKIP is higher amongst white Londoners than people tend to
:38:38. > :38:44.assume. To discuss all of that and more, Clive Evatt and Lynne
:38:45. > :38:47.Featherstone. Welcome to you both. Before we get on to other matters,
:38:48. > :38:53.can we kick off with the question of the water cannon? The Mayor of
:38:54. > :38:56.London is buying three machines from the German police because they think
:38:57. > :38:59.it could be necessary to deal with disorder, and he's doing it before
:39:00. > :39:04.the Home Secretary has gone through the approval and licensing process.
:39:05. > :39:09.What is your view on that? He has taken leave of his senses. Firstly,
:39:10. > :39:13.to buy second-hand water cannons when you have not got the go-ahead
:39:14. > :39:17.from the Home Office is in itself provocative, but I also think that
:39:18. > :39:22.water cannon are the answer to any crowd control issues. We have very
:39:23. > :39:26.good crowd control, and the answer to good policing is not a water
:39:27. > :39:31.cannon. It's not something that we in this country need or want, and I
:39:32. > :39:34.think it would be a step in the wrong direction towards the sort of
:39:35. > :39:39.control that we don't admire in other places. Do you agree with
:39:40. > :39:45.that? It's extraordinary that the Mayor of London is driving this
:39:46. > :39:47.major step, to deploy a water cannon on the streets of London when the
:39:48. > :39:51.Home Secretary has not made a decision. I am opposed to the idea.
:39:52. > :39:58.We have policing by consent in London, but we have few incidents
:39:59. > :40:01.where you would need to call on a water cannon, if ever, and let's go
:40:02. > :40:09.back and at what happened in the riots back in 2011 because there
:40:10. > :40:15.weren't enough police to deploy over the weekend it's not necessary that
:40:16. > :40:20.we might use it, just have it available. Why waste taxpayers money
:40:21. > :40:27.if you don't want to use it? There might be circumstances where we
:40:28. > :40:30.might need it. We have always decided previously there was no need
:40:31. > :40:34.for water cannons to be destroyed on -- deployed on the streets of
:40:35. > :40:38.London. This is a major step and it has to be debated beyond the mayoral
:40:39. > :40:44.office. I don't think it is that clear where public opinion is. You
:40:45. > :40:47.can't tell me for certain that you think Londoners don't want to see
:40:48. > :40:51.water cannon as an option, if there were serious problems. I can't tell
:40:52. > :40:54.you that because I haven't done any research on the subject, but I do
:40:55. > :41:00.think Londoners take great pride in the policing and policing by
:41:01. > :41:07.consent. Therefore they can keep control. But what about the Home
:41:08. > :41:10.Office, and Theresa May, what does she make of the fact that Boris
:41:11. > :41:15.Johnson does this, and he buys them, but he knows -- she knows he cannot
:41:16. > :41:19.use them. Not till he has gone through the proper process. I think
:41:20. > :41:22.she will be fed up. It's a provocative move. She has made it
:41:23. > :41:26.clear that she has been considering this and it's a for the Home Office
:41:27. > :41:34.to consider Musso Boris going ahead to buy them is something of a sign.
:41:35. > :41:39.It is back to front. What happens next? Does Boris buy guns for every
:41:40. > :41:42.police officer and then challenges the Home Secretary to agree to him
:41:43. > :41:46.arming the police? It's not the way to do it. We will leave that
:41:47. > :41:49.question hanging there. One of the recent signals from the European
:41:50. > :41:54.elections was that London were less keen on UKIP than anywhere else in
:41:55. > :41:58.England. But why, and how important is the ethnic dimensional. Trevor
:41:59. > :42:02.Phillips, the former chair of the equalities and human rights
:42:03. > :42:05.commission says if you took away the ethnic minority population the backs
:42:06. > :42:08.labour, among white Londoners, support for UKIP is stronger than
:42:09. > :42:12.people have been saying. He makes his case for us now. To me it feels
:42:13. > :42:15.like yesterday, but it's over 30 like yesterday, but it's over 3
:42:16. > :42:20.years since I first started reporting on London politics. Back
:42:21. > :42:26.then, the great political divide was symbolised by this bridge. To the
:42:27. > :42:31.south, red, Labour Lambeth. To the north, true blue Westminster Tories.
:42:32. > :42:35.Today, it's all different. The colours that matters aren't so much
:42:36. > :42:43.the ones on your rosette, but the colours on Londoners faces, black,
:42:44. > :42:46.brown, white. Back in 1980, 90% of Londoners would have described
:42:47. > :42:56.themselves as white British. Today, that number has halved, 45%. And
:42:57. > :43:00.nearly as many are black or brown. But we all get along pretty well,
:43:01. > :43:05.don't we? People vote on issues, not ethnicity. Well, when we number
:43:06. > :43:09.crunched the results of the recent elections, we discovered that London
:43:10. > :43:17.isn't quite the multi-coloured, happy clappy picture of harmony that
:43:18. > :43:21.we would love it to be. The 22nd of May revealed a deeply divided city.
:43:22. > :43:26.Two out of every three minority Londoners supported the Labour
:43:27. > :43:32.Party. Two out of every three white Londoners back either the Tories or
:43:33. > :43:37.UKIP. UKIP were level pegging and outpolled Labour by almost two
:43:38. > :43:41.against one. Does it matter? Well, here is a thought. Today, from an
:43:42. > :43:46.ethnic point of view, the rest of the country is where London used to
:43:47. > :43:51.be 30 years ago. In 30 years time, they will have caught up to where
:43:52. > :43:55.London is right now. The fact is, that London is not an oddity. It's
:43:56. > :44:01.not another country. It is, in fact, the future. And that is a future
:44:02. > :44:07.that people over there are going to have to get used to. Trevor Phillips
:44:08. > :44:11.is with me now. Welcome to you. You would agree at the outset that you
:44:12. > :44:14.had to be careful. You make a strong assertion that that this is how
:44:15. > :44:18.people voted. But we don't know do people voted. But we don't know, do
:44:19. > :44:24.we, because there is no evidence. We do know how they voted. There are
:44:25. > :44:27.three accepted facts. One, the British election studies that tells
:44:28. > :44:34.us that 60% of minorities routinely vote Labour and nobody challenges
:44:35. > :44:43.that. Secondly, the demographic of London, and we know that 45%, white
:44:44. > :44:49.British, 15% others. And we know from the outcomes of the Euro
:44:50. > :44:55.elections. And so on. But the figures together. I would love to
:44:56. > :45:00.see its conjugated, at its AS-level. The point I am making is
:45:01. > :45:05.that is it as a voting pattern and you don't know how people voted in
:45:06. > :45:06.these past elections. You are basing it on assertions about past voting
:45:07. > :45:35.passions. election. Analysts say that people
:45:36. > :45:40.do different things at European elections. You know that. I am
:45:41. > :45:45.saying there are limitations. I am not saying that you may not be
:45:46. > :45:50.right. You need more evidence. I would not want to argue with you
:45:51. > :45:55.about that. But actually the British election study of 2010 is a better
:45:56. > :46:00.get to what people will do in the next general election than what
:46:01. > :46:04.happened on May 22. The point is, we can have an argument about the
:46:05. > :46:10.technicalities, but this has been true consistently. The big question
:46:11. > :46:14.will be about whether people acted in a consistently clear way in the
:46:15. > :46:18.decisions they made in the European ballot. Did ethnic minorities vote
:46:19. > :46:22.according to the way that you think they did? Let's assume they did It
:46:23. > :46:26.they did? Let's assume they did. It is hard for me to say let's assume
:46:27. > :46:31.we did. People have done something for 25 years. I cannot think of any
:46:32. > :46:36.reason why they would certainly do something different last Thursday. I
:46:37. > :46:41.accept that point. I want to make it clear that the outset. You make the
:46:42. > :46:47.point, why does it matter? I am not sure that you answer it. Why does it
:46:48. > :46:53.matter? There are two reasons why it matters. The reason we did this is
:46:54. > :46:56.not to do with politics. We are interested in choice and the
:46:57. > :47:03.influence of inheritance and culture and environment. Politics and the
:47:04. > :47:06.behaviour of ethnic minorities is a good way of testing methodology.
:47:07. > :47:06.behaviour of ethnic minorities is a good way of testing methodology We
:47:07. > :47:10.good way of testing methodology. We are more interested in, for example,
:47:11. > :47:16.do people give to charities and what sort of charities? This is a good
:47:17. > :47:19.way of testing it. Trying to understand how people behave matters
:47:20. > :47:24.because it helps us to understand how to serve them better. Secondly,
:47:25. > :47:28.the point I made is that what happens in London today is probably
:47:29. > :47:35.what the country will be doing in 20 to 25 years time. The third and most
:47:36. > :47:39.important thing is that people have got to make a decision about whether
:47:40. > :47:45.they like or feel comfortable with this patronage in. We can see it in
:47:46. > :47:48.the United States. It is completely dominant in American politics. There
:47:49. > :47:54.is an important question about whether that is appropriate for this
:47:55. > :47:58.country. So is your year -- so is your conclusion that there is a
:47:59. > :48:04.worry about what would be a division in ethnic voting patterns? I am not
:48:05. > :48:08.going to take a view on that. I am a researcher on this context.
:48:09. > :48:11.You know that it's what people want to hear from you?
:48:12. > :48:15.Has it got implications we should be worried about?
:48:16. > :48:36.I think it is important I am not neutral.
:48:37. > :48:39.It is also important in relation to how the political parties conduct
:48:40. > :48:42.themselves so, for example, if you are a party where getting on for
:48:43. > :48:46.three quarters of the people who voted for you are from an ethnic
:48:47. > :48:48.minority, you might want to think, does our representation
:48:49. > :48:54.Is this something you would be concerned about, that really you are
:48:55. > :48:58.The issue about the impact of UKIP at the last election is
:48:59. > :49:03.It is about how people feel about migration,
:49:04. > :49:06.particularly within Europe and how it has affected them over the last
:49:07. > :49:12.That is felt by everybody, not just the white working class
:49:13. > :49:41.It is felt right across all groups. It is about how people feel about
:49:42. > :49:44.migration, communities are very unlikely to go out and vote UKIP.
:49:45. > :49:49.Also, white voters are not voting Labour?
:49:50. > :49:54.There is a lesson for every party in this, whether it is Labour,
:49:55. > :49:58.People at that election were saying, we are going to protest.
:49:59. > :50:00.Even in London, we have this impression that somehow
:50:01. > :50:03.we have been immune from this, you're saying that we are not,
:50:04. > :50:06.Yes, you see this division within London.
:50:07. > :50:08.You can see examples of different turnout
:50:09. > :50:11.and voting patterns, where you have a different ethnic mix within the
:50:12. > :50:15.Do not forget that there were lots of no-shows in the European
:50:16. > :50:17.election, lots of people protested by not voting.
:50:18. > :50:19.I think it is probably even more complicated.
:50:20. > :50:21.I think people are worried about their employment prospects
:50:22. > :50:30.You do not have any problem with the figures?
:50:31. > :50:33.I am taking the view, Trevor is an expert, he has done the research,
:50:34. > :50:40.but where I am in Haringey, the battles I see are quite different.
:50:41. > :50:43.It is the already heres against the newly arrived, it is
:50:44. > :50:49.a competition over scarce resources that dictates election, lots
:50:50. > :51:05.I think it is probably even more complicated.
:51:06. > :51:33.I think people are worried about their employment prospects
:51:34. > :51:36.Just to be clear, this is not my opinion. This is what the numbers
:51:37. > :51:39.tell us. I am not saying this because it is something I
:51:40. > :51:43.like to hear, it is what the numbers tell us. The patterns were similar
:51:44. > :51:45.in Germany for many years. But for reasons that
:51:46. > :51:47.nobody quite understands, over the last 10 years,
:51:48. > :51:50.Labour's sister party in Germany, the SDP, which used to attract 0%
:51:51. > :51:53.of the Turkish vote, in 2009 declined to 50%. Last autumn
:51:54. > :51:55.it declined to 42%. In Canada, something similar has
:51:56. > :51:58.happened. These things are not immutable. My point is that it is
:51:59. > :52:01.better for us to know what is happening. A final thought,
:52:02. > :52:03.again. If one lesson has got to come from this, what
:52:04. > :52:07.do the policymakers need to do? If I had a particular thing that I would
:52:08. > :52:10.say, I would say that every party has to grasp that
:52:11. > :52:12.not all voting is just about economics. It is not
:52:13. > :52:16.about the pound in your pocket, it is also about, does this party look
:52:17. > :52:18.and feel like me? The question that all of the
:52:19. > :52:21.political parties have got to understand is, why is it that
:52:22. > :52:26.we are in a situation where there should be something like 90 minority
:52:27. > :52:29.MPs in Parliament and there are only 27? Thank you for
:52:30. > :52:31.coming in. Its population is growing, demand for
:52:32. > :52:41.housing is huge, space is limited, but is building upwards the answer?
:52:42. > :52:44.More than 230 skyscrapers are in the pipeline for
:52:45. > :52:46.the capital prompting a growing debate. Andrew Cryan
:52:47. > :52:49.reports. It used to be the case that no building in the capital was
:52:50. > :52:53.allowed to be taller than St Paul's Cathedral. One by one
:52:54. > :52:56.in the 20th century, skyscrapers started to appear,
:52:57. > :52:59.culminating in the 21st century with the Shard, giving London the tallest
:53:00. > :53:05.building in Western Europe. From the top, you
:53:06. > :53:08.can see that most of the city remains fairly low rise.
:53:09. > :53:13.But that is not going to be the case for very much longer. There are
:53:14. > :53:15.currently 230 buildings in the pipeline in London
:53:16. > :53:20.which are going to be 20 storeys or more in height.
:53:21. > :53:24.None are as tall as the Shard, but the skyline of London is set to
:53:25. > :53:27.change forever. In a few years, Nine Elms in South London
:53:28. > :53:29.is expected to look a bit more like this. The view
:53:30. > :53:34.from Waterloo Bridge will be more like this, and the vista south from
:53:35. > :53:36.Blackfriars Bridge will be something like this, giving
:53:37. > :53:40.London thousands and thousands of new square feet of
:53:41. > :53:43.office space. Office buildings are actually just a small bit of the
:53:44. > :53:46.story. 80% of the new tall buildings planned for London
:53:47. > :53:50.are places where people are going to be able to live.
:53:51. > :53:54.Far from council flats of the 1960s, this is mostly prime residential
:53:55. > :53:56.real estate, which, thanks to the housing boom now makes
:53:57. > :54:02.developers more money than building offices would.
:54:03. > :54:05.These are tall buildings which provide smaller units. One,
:54:06. > :54:07.two-bedroom apartments, and they are generally linked to
:54:08. > :54:14.wealthier occupiers, at least in Central London, partly
:54:15. > :54:23.because developers can actually get a huge premium. As you go higher up,
:54:24. > :54:25.the cost of the apartments get higher. According to
:54:26. > :54:30.the city of London's chief planner for nearly three
:54:31. > :54:37.years, the new residential skyscrapers do not offer much of a
:54:38. > :54:39.solution to London's housing problems. It does not matter
:54:40. > :54:41.whether they are for foreign buyers or homebuyers,
:54:42. > :54:44.they are being bought purely for investment purposes. They are
:54:45. > :54:46.frequently left under occupied or unoccupied and not let
:54:47. > :54:48.out to other occupiers so we are getting great
:54:49. > :54:51.underuse of the land at a time when London is desperately short of homes
:54:52. > :54:57.and could do with those sites being developed
:54:58. > :54:59.with more appropriate accommodation. This week, the
:55:00. > :55:02.London Assembly echoed this, saying that London needs to look for other
:55:03. > :55:07.solutions to its housing needs. Almost as certain as
:55:08. > :55:10.the fact that London's skyline is going to change is
:55:11. > :55:16.that the debate around the new towers will go on and on. Is this
:55:17. > :55:23.the way? Is your government allowing too many of
:55:24. > :55:26.these, are we supplying the housing we need? You have a
:55:27. > :55:29.choice, build out or build up. The key thing is it should be beautiful.
:55:30. > :55:35.The Shard is beautiful. What is it doing to the
:55:36. > :55:40.skyline, does it benefit the local community? You are
:55:41. > :55:43.asking the questions, but are they? They are in prime sites. They are
:55:44. > :55:46.making a lot of profit for developers. That is one
:55:47. > :55:49.of the issues. If you look at Boris Johnson, he has
:55:50. > :55:52.great powers in planning terms. It is public who he meets, but it is
:55:53. > :55:56.not public what he said. I think that is what we need
:55:57. > :56:04.to know. If it is not benefiting local people, if it
:56:05. > :56:08.is not supplying affordable housing, it is not a good thing. It is not
:56:09. > :56:10.solving London's problems. If part of it is solving
:56:11. > :56:12.London's problems, then commercial and domestic can
:56:13. > :56:15.mix. The argument is surely that because it is difficult times, we
:56:16. > :56:19.need to get the economy going, construction is an
:56:20. > :56:22.important part of that. Perhaps we do not get the kind
:56:23. > :56:27.of deal or affordable housing element that we would want, but you
:56:28. > :56:29.have got to be realistic? Boris Johnson has turned
:56:30. > :56:31.London into the Klondike for foreign investors to
:56:32. > :56:34.come over here, buy properties, leave them vacant or rent them out
:56:35. > :56:36.at extortionate rates. It is pricing the younger generation
:56:37. > :56:43.of London and people who want to come to London out
:56:44. > :56:50.of the market. It is just insane what has been going on. I would love
:56:51. > :56:52.to get to the point where we are worried about the
:56:53. > :56:55.aesthetics of it, but first and foremost, we have got to
:56:56. > :56:58.ask who is benefiting from this? Who are we building these properties
:56:59. > :57:01.for? We have not been building enough for the people
:57:02. > :57:09.who live and want to live in London, whether they
:57:10. > :57:13.want to rent or buy, and... You need to show you are open to development?
:57:14. > :57:18.We have got to make sure that what is being
:57:19. > :57:21.developed is going to be affordable at the end of the day
:57:22. > :57:24.and is targeted at the right people. We do not need million pound luxury
:57:25. > :57:29.flats that are completely out of the price range of
:57:30. > :57:32.local people. Developers will say, we're not going
:57:33. > :57:36.to develop the land? If you are not going to develop the land, we have
:57:37. > :57:39.said, use it or lose it. We have got to apply that
:57:40. > :57:42.strong policy. Are there tougher ways of getting the
:57:43. > :57:52.land developed? I would be tougher. The government has pledged ?3.3
:57:53. > :57:57.billion for 165,000 affordable and social houses... They
:57:58. > :57:59.are being built. Then there is a further pledge of
:58:00. > :58:03.300,000 per year. Under Labour, they were not built. In Haringey,
:58:04. > :58:06.Haringey built no houses for 25 years. This government
:58:07. > :58:11.has built fewer houses than in the 1920s. An end
:58:12. > :58:15.thought? I think you can build up as long as it is for the people of
:58:16. > :58:18.London. Time for a look at the rest of this week's
:58:19. > :58:26.political news in 60 Seconds. Thousands of taxi drivers
:58:27. > :58:31.brought part of central London to a standstill in protest at a rival
:58:32. > :58:34.service, a mobile phone application that allows
:58:35. > :58:37.customers to hail minicabs which black cab drivers say is
:58:38. > :58:40.breaching regulations. Metal spikes placed outside a block of flats in
:58:41. > :58:46.Southwark to deter homeless people sleeping rough have
:58:47. > :58:48.been removed. People signed a petition in protest
:58:49. > :58:55.condemning the developer who had placed them there. The mayor had
:58:56. > :59:01.also expressed his opinion and called for their
:59:02. > :59:04.removal. The route that Crossrail 2 could take across London
:59:05. > :59:06.has been altered following public consultation. The new plans now
:59:07. > :59:08.extend the terminal destination from Alexandra Palace to
:59:09. > :59:28.New Southgate in North London. Revelations by this
:59:29. > :59:31.programme that in 2013 Boris Johnson had into Doha more often than
:59:32. > :59:34.Dagenham caused the issue to be raised at Mayor?s
:59:35. > :59:36.Question Time. You are a hypocrite. Let's be realistic, it
:59:37. > :59:40.is not possible to be everywhere at once. Boris Johnson has been out to
:59:41. > :59:46.Greenwich. He has seen you. I think he came to
:59:47. > :59:49.Greenwich once. I do not care where Boris goes. If he builds
:59:50. > :59:54.houses were he has not been, I would be pleased. He has not been to
:59:55. > :59:57.Havering or Kingston. He is not listening to his own
:59:58. > :59:59.words. Given what Trevor is saying about voting patterns,
:00:00. > :00:03.if he wants to stand again, he might want to get to where people vote.
:00:04. > :00:05.That is an interesting point. A word on the
:00:06. > :00:08.spikes. They have been removed from this building,
:00:09. > :00:11.presumably you approve. I do approve, but quite frankly, public
:00:12. > :00:15.buildings have deterrents as well. It is not about that, it is
:00:16. > :00:17.about what we're doing about homeless people. People
:00:18. > :00:25.suffering from drug addiction, the issues that make people homeless.
:00:26. > :00:27.Those are the issues we need to tackle. A Labour
:00:28. > :00:30.authority building great new flats, in a Labour authority,
:00:31. > :00:33.and not allowing... Boris Johnson said that there would be no homeless
:00:34. > :00:36.people living on the streets of London so these
:00:37. > :00:43.devices should not be necessary. We have nearly 7000
:00:44. > :00:46.people sleeping rough in London I believe the outskirts of City Hall
:00:47. > :00:52.have deterrents for people sleeping rough, so the mayor
:00:53. > :00:55.is doing it as well. Do they? There is some paving
:00:56. > :00:58.arranged so it is not so comfortable, I am told. On that
:00:59. > :01:02.note, we have run out of time. Thanks very much indeed. Back to
:01:03. > :01:15.There are big changes afoot in the EU following last month's
:01:16. > :01:17.European elections, not least who'll get the top job
:01:18. > :01:21.But behind the scenes the parties have
:01:22. > :01:24.also been jockeying for position as they try to form the big groups that
:01:25. > :01:28.And UKIP seems to have been struggling to keep its influence
:01:29. > :01:37.Here's Adam to explain how it all works.
:01:38. > :01:43.If you want your party to be a big cheese in the European Parliament,
:01:44. > :01:48.you need to form a political group. By doing this, the party gets more
:01:49. > :01:53.money, more positions on committees and even more speaking rights in the
:01:54. > :01:58.chamber. But the parliament's rules are strict. And to form a group you
:01:59. > :02:02.need a group of 25 MPs from at least seven different countries. For UKIP,
:02:03. > :02:07.the number of MEPs will not be a problem because they already have 24
:02:08. > :02:10.of their own, but the different nationalities are more of a
:02:11. > :02:14.challenge. Nigel Farage was not helped by the Tories stealing --
:02:15. > :02:22.stealing his former Danish and Finnish allies, and the pen pinching
:02:23. > :02:28.his Italian charms. Nigel needs a new charm and fast. He has already
:02:29. > :02:33.signed up Lithuania's order and justice, a free citizen from Prague,
:02:34. > :02:41.and the Dutchman from the reformed political party. The big signing was
:02:42. > :02:44.the 17 members of the Italian Beppe Griego's 5-star movement, but it
:02:45. > :02:48.leaves UKIP short of two more international powers, and with the
:02:49. > :02:52.clock ticking, it looks like his hopes resting on the Swedish
:02:53. > :02:53.Democrats and the Polish new right Congress. They both make their
:02:54. > :03:05.decisions next week. What is the latest? UKIP have enough
:03:06. > :03:10.MEPs with their pals, but they need seven countries, as I understand it.
:03:11. > :03:13.They are not there yet. They are wrapped five countries and need
:03:14. > :03:17.another two. UKIP are being quite buoyant and say they will be meeting
:03:18. > :03:21.MEPs from five countries next week and are pretty confident they will
:03:22. > :03:25.get those countries, but as Adam was saying, the problem UKIP have had is
:03:26. > :03:34.that the Conservatives have nicked two of the parties. That is why they
:03:35. > :03:39.have been struggling, but they say they are confident they will do it.
:03:40. > :03:40.Meanwhile, the Tories new best friends are the German Eurosceptic
:03:41. > :03:46.party, which has put Mrs Merkel's party, which has put Mrs Merkel s
:03:47. > :03:52.nose out of joint, but we don't quite know whether she really cares
:03:53. > :03:58.or not. I think Cameron has played his hand badly since he committed to
:03:59. > :04:05.pulling out of the EBP. And he should be in there with Angela
:04:06. > :04:11.Merkel and if he needs to make a major renegotiation, he needs to
:04:12. > :04:16.have the Germans onside. Instead there is a breakaway party and its
:04:17. > :04:22.like supporting UKIP. His party are supporting her worst enemy. It
:04:23. > :04:24.certainly causing him a lot of problems, and undermines his
:04:25. > :04:31.negotiating position, but isn't there an honesty that the
:04:32. > :04:35.centre-right group is explicitly Federalist, and the Tories are
:04:36. > :04:38.anything but, so they came out, and Labour are in the Socialist group,
:04:39. > :04:44.which is explicitly Federalist, and they are not Federalist either. If
:04:45. > :04:48.you want support and influence in Europe, you have to trade, and he
:04:49. > :04:54.hasn't done this well. The whole business with who will be the next
:04:55. > :04:59.president, he needs Angela Merkel's support. Without that, it won't
:05:00. > :05:06.happen. He should have been trading behind-the-scenes, but he has
:05:07. > :05:09.exposed himself in public, and if he doesn't win it looks uncertain, and
:05:10. > :05:12.he will be in a position where he has to go back to his own party and
:05:13. > :05:15.say they are not getting anywhere. That is dangerous and takes us
:05:16. > :05:23.closer to the Exeter, which I don't think would want. The danger for Mr
:05:24. > :05:28.Cameron is if it is the president of the commission, he will save you
:05:29. > :05:29.cannot stop a federalist becoming head of the European commission,
:05:30. > :05:32.head of the European commission what chance do you have of
:05:33. > :05:39.repatriating lots of powers back to London. There are lots of Tory MPs
:05:40. > :05:45.dying to make the argument. My hunch is that he won't make it. There are
:05:46. > :05:47.too many countries opposed to his presidency and even the country
:05:48. > :05:53.notionally in favour of it, Germany, is failing in youth -- enthusiasm.
:05:54. > :05:59.Angela Merkel cannot be seen to give in to the Brits this. Her own side
:06:00. > :06:07.once it as well, though some reason the German media says it. When she
:06:08. > :06:11.tried to reach out and said to look at the other candidates, she got
:06:12. > :06:18.such abuse on the right wing press from her own country and party she
:06:19. > :06:26.had to retreat. Janan is right that there is opposition to Juncker, but
:06:27. > :06:30.as long as Cameron turns it into an argument about Britain and Europe,
:06:31. > :06:38.he will strengthen the hand of Juncker. Angela Merkel thinks
:06:39. > :06:41.Juncker is inappropriate. She did not like the process, which was a
:06:42. > :06:44.power grab by the European Parliament, but when David Cameron
:06:45. > :06:49.went to the council and said that if I don't get my way, we could leave
:06:50. > :06:55.the EU, that led to the backlash, most significantly from the SPD in
:06:56. > :07:00.Germany. As Tony Blair says, if only David Cameron had made the argument
:07:01. > :07:02.that Juncker is bad for Europe, then he would have found his natural
:07:03. > :07:07.allies would have felt more comfortable following behind. Enough
:07:08. > :07:16.Europe. I want to show you a picture. See what you think of this.
:07:17. > :07:22.When I saw that picture, I thought it was so ludicrous that it had to
:07:23. > :07:26.have been photo shop. Discuss. He is holding it with a certain disdain,
:07:27. > :07:31.looking a bit hangdog. A disastrous picture for Ed Miliband. His
:07:32. > :07:37.strength is authenticity, sincerity and cleverness. And he blows all of
:07:38. > :07:42.that. He was the one who took on Murdoch, very bravely and
:07:43. > :07:46.dangerously, and one, really. Now there he is supporting Murdoch's
:07:47. > :07:50.son. It's a big mistake, not just in Liverpool, where obviously they are
:07:51. > :07:56.particularly incensed. And then he apologises. Sort of apologises and
:07:57. > :08:02.understands why Liverpool feels upset. But it is a fundamental error
:08:03. > :08:04.and I hope he learns from this, that he must absolutely stay true to
:08:05. > :08:12.himself. That's all he's got going for him. Who do we blame? His
:08:13. > :08:16.advisers or himself? In the end, himself. Nobody forced him to do it.
:08:17. > :08:23.On this one, he called it wrong. On this one, he called it wrong
:08:24. > :08:30.It's a sign of the rather the bridal state of the Labour Party is that
:08:31. > :08:38.his candidates were vocal in attacking him doing this. It's a
:08:39. > :08:41.sign of how readable Ed Miliband is at Parliamentary level. I don't
:08:42. > :08:50.think you should have apologised. The mistake he made was associating
:08:51. > :08:55.himself with that newspaper. The mistake was the prior three years
:08:56. > :09:00.when he went too far as portraying the Murdoch empire beyond the pale.
:09:01. > :09:05.He made a case against phone hacking and offences in that regard without
:09:06. > :09:08.going as far as he did with the rhetoric. To do that, and then pose
:09:09. > :09:12.with the Sun newspaper, the juxtaposition is what did for him,
:09:13. > :09:18.not the mere fact of posing with it. Maybe he did not know what he was
:09:19. > :09:21.doing because we were told he doesn't read the British
:09:22. > :09:26.newspapers. It was football, and he has posed with the Sun newspaper
:09:27. > :09:30.before. Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg posed as well. But with the Sun
:09:31. > :09:34.newspaper and football, you tread carefully. That was the mistake. You
:09:35. > :09:38.get the impression from the picture that he looks so uncomfortable that
:09:39. > :09:42.you wonder whether there was a full process of consultation that went on
:09:43. > :09:45.within his media operation, within his political operation. Was he
:09:46. > :09:49.fully aware of what would happen question what he looks so incredibly
:09:50. > :09:53.uncomfortable. But at the end of the day, leaders have to take
:09:54. > :09:58.responsibility. It is cultural as well. That picture says, I am down
:09:59. > :10:02.there with the football blokes and you think, you are not. That is not
:10:03. > :10:05.what people will vote for. Be yourself and don't pretend to be
:10:06. > :10:10.something else because it never works. But the polls suggest that
:10:11. > :10:15.the British voters don't yet see Ed Miliband as prime ministerial. The
:10:16. > :10:18.worst thing you can then do is get involved in stunts that are more
:10:19. > :10:23.likely to reinforce that idea than counter it. There was a precedent
:10:24. > :10:30.for it in the last parliament which was Gordon Brown's attempts to feign
:10:31. > :10:35.a populist touch. He did it by telling the contents of his iPod.
:10:36. > :10:38.The Arctic monkeys. It always jarred because he was trying too hard. Not
:10:39. > :10:41.uniquely guilty of, Ed Miliband, all uniquely guilty of, Ed Miliband all
:10:42. > :10:46.the other leaders have done it. At the moment he more vulnerable. Yes,
:10:47. > :10:51.and he is less popular than his party. Labour has quite a popular
:10:52. > :10:55.brand, in a resilient way, in a way they don't with the Tories, yet
:10:56. > :11:00.their leader is a personal problem. The pressure is on him to do stunts
:11:01. > :11:05.like this. Will there be a shadow cabinet reshuffle? Yes, we have to
:11:06. > :11:07.get the cabinet reshuffle out of the way first, and that might come next
:11:08. > :11:11.week, maybe by the time of the summer recess, but the first thing
:11:12. > :11:17.that the prime Minister do is work out who is the UK candidate for the
:11:18. > :11:21.European Commissioner. Is it not the case probably that Ed Balls is
:11:22. > :11:26.becoming semi-detached from the Ed Miliband project? I don't think
:11:27. > :11:30.entirely. Nothing gets agreed without both of the end are green.
:11:31. > :11:35.Ed Balls is controversial. He has great pluses and minuses and is a
:11:36. > :11:39.big figure. Labour doesn't have that many big figures. It's quite hard to
:11:40. > :11:42.think who would be a heavy hitter as a possible Chancellor. He is a
:11:43. > :11:49.convincing chancellor to the future, Love him. He has the heft -- love
:11:50. > :11:54.him or hate him. Any possibility Ed Balls could be moved as shadow
:11:55. > :11:57.chancellor? The timing is convenient because the Scottish referendum ends
:11:58. > :12:01.in the autumn and Alistair Darling becomes a free man, win or lose. I
:12:02. > :12:04.don't think Ed Balls will be removed because moving him would be an
:12:05. > :12:07.admission that everything the Labour Party said about the economy to the
:12:08. > :12:11.preceding four years has been a mistake. And you can't do that nine
:12:12. > :12:16.months before a general election. You invite ridicule. But relations
:12:17. > :12:20.between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls are not great at the moment. The Ed
:12:21. > :12:23.Miliband team are very, very suspicious of this new love in
:12:24. > :12:29.between Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson. Mandelson likes to say
:12:30. > :12:32.that he spotted the Ed Balls talents in the original place and appointed
:12:33. > :12:37.him to the Gordon Brown team after the disaster of 1992. But things
:12:38. > :12:43.obviously went awry, and now Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson Avenue
:12:44. > :12:48.Rappaport, and that is with enormous suspicion -- they have a new
:12:49. > :12:51.Rappaport. With good reason because it's about policy. It's about the
:12:52. > :12:56.attitude towards business. Should they be out there saying they will
:12:57. > :13:01.get the tax dodgers, Starbucks, Vodafone, are we going to take on
:13:02. > :13:04.business in a big way? In a way that Ed Miliband has quite bravely said.
:13:05. > :13:09.On the other hand, Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson are saying, hang on,
:13:10. > :13:10.we only won in 1997 by being business friendly. Sorry to rush
:13:11. > :13:12.you. We are running out of time. The Daily Politics will be back
:13:13. > :13:16.every day this week at midday, and I'll be back here next Sunday
:13:17. > :13:19.when I'll be joined by the shadow work and pensions
:13:20. > :13:21.secretary Rachel Reeves.Remember if it's Sunday,
:13:22. > :13:53.it's the Sunday Politics. Magnificent. The power base
:13:54. > :13:59.of medieval England. Charles' ceiling was a piece
:14:00. > :14:05.of breathtaking arrogance. You get a sense of the people
:14:06. > :14:13.who made the palaces. as I unlock the secrets
:14:14. > :14:16.of Britain's great palaces.