:00:35. > :00:42.As evidence grows that the Russian passenger jet downed over
:00:43. > :00:45.Egypt's Sinai desert last weekend WAS the target of
:00:46. > :00:54.a terrorist attack, we look at how Moscow and the West will respond.
:00:55. > :01:00.We will have the latest from each at and Russia. -- Egypt.
:01:01. > :01:03.Are we now on the brink of an even more dangerous phase of Islamist
:01:04. > :01:07.David Cameron says he's ready to lead Britain out of the EU
:01:08. > :01:09.if he doesn't get what he wants from renegotiation,
:01:10. > :01:14.Will his list of demands result in a good deal or turn out to be
:01:15. > :01:18.And the row over a new contract for junior doctors in England
:01:19. > :01:23.As the doctors ballot for strike action,
:01:24. > :01:26.we'll be talking to Shadow Health Secretary Heidi Alexander.
:01:27. > :01:29.In London this week, at this time of Remembrance, we have been trying
:01:30. > :01:43.to find out why so few Londoners are signing up to the Armed Forces.
:01:44. > :01:47.And with me, as always, the three journalists that help make this show
:01:48. > :01:50.the most anticipated TV event since the John Lewis Christmas advert
:01:51. > :01:52.It's Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.
:01:53. > :01:55.We're not sure if they'll make you start thinking
:01:56. > :02:00.But they may well bring a tear to your eye.
:02:01. > :02:03.So, this week, we'll see what many eurosceptics and europhiles have
:02:04. > :02:05.been waiting for with all the excitement of a child thinking about
:02:06. > :02:09.their Christmas wish list, even though it's only early November
:02:10. > :02:13.David Cameron will publish his letter to the President of the
:02:14. > :02:15.European Council setting out the "broad outlines" of what he wants
:02:16. > :02:18.to achieve from his renegotiation of Britain's EU membership.
:02:19. > :02:22.The upfront briefing from Ten Downing Street says that
:02:23. > :02:25.he'll challenge both the in and out campaigns to be more
:02:26. > :02:30.But, to assuage the eurosceptic majority in his party he'll use his
:02:31. > :02:36.strongest language yet to say that if he doesn't get what he wants
:02:37. > :02:39.Whether they believe him is another matter.
:02:40. > :02:42.This is what Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond has to say this
:02:43. > :02:47.The British people will not be fobbed off with a set of cosmetic
:02:48. > :02:51.This is about fundamental change in the direction of travel in the
:02:52. > :02:56.European Union, to make sure that it works for Britain, and that it is
:02:57. > :03:00.an effective organisation for all the citizens of Europe, driving our
:03:01. > :03:04.prosperity and competitiveness in the 21st century.
:03:05. > :03:12.If we cannot do that, then we will not be able to win a referendum
:03:13. > :03:18.That was the Foreign Secretary. Janan Ganesh, is anything happening?
:03:19. > :03:22.There is a problem the David Cameron, the things he is most
:03:23. > :03:25.likely to get from his renegotiation are not the things that will move
:03:26. > :03:29.the average voter, so what he is likely to get our protections for
:03:30. > :03:32.non-euro countries within the EU, and that will be very technical
:03:33. > :03:39.institutional stuff, double majority voting and so forth. That is doable,
:03:40. > :03:43.the Germans don't want a fragmented EU in terms of the currency. Does
:03:44. > :03:48.your average undecided voter decide on the basis of that? I think they
:03:49. > :03:51.are more moved by free movement and immigration, maybe even economic
:03:52. > :03:56.regulation, so the things he is most likely to get may not help him in a
:03:57. > :04:00.year or 18 months' time when he is campaigning to win a referendum You
:04:01. > :04:02.get the feeling he has delayed telling us what he is really looking
:04:03. > :04:08.for because he is bound to disappoint. Indeed, and he has to be
:04:09. > :04:13.very careful to ask for things he can get. Three of the main things he
:04:14. > :04:17.can get, but I don't think he will get the four years' delay for in
:04:18. > :04:21.work benefits, it is discriminatory and goes against the basic
:04:22. > :04:26.principles and yet he is asking again. We can only hope he has had a
:04:27. > :04:29.nod and a wink from 27 other countries that they will agree to
:04:30. > :04:34.that because if he fails to get it, it will agree to that because if he
:04:35. > :04:42.fails to get it, it'll renegotiation and it is a good package, so we will
:04:43. > :04:47.hope it is not a cavalier piece of speaking. What is your take? Philip
:04:48. > :04:50.Hammond did say some of the changes would be introduced through domestic
:04:51. > :04:54.legislation and it does look like the ban on EU migrants claiming in
:04:55. > :05:00.work benefits for four years, the Government will they would thereby
:05:01. > :05:03.codify some recent European Court judgments that have gone in favour
:05:04. > :05:06.of the UK and not embedded in treaty change, but the hard language about
:05:07. > :05:12.treaty change, the reason they are standing soaked up, is George
:05:13. > :05:16.Osborne is absolutely confident that he is going to get a treaty change
:05:17. > :05:20.agreement, protections for the Euro outs and Britain will get an opt out
:05:21. > :05:24.from an ever closer union. George Osborne's the is that the protection
:05:25. > :05:28.for the Euro outs is the most important thing he can get the
:05:29. > :05:31.benefit of Britain but he knows politically the campaign, the most
:05:32. > :05:35.important thing he has to get those migrant benefit restrictions. We
:05:36. > :05:36.will see what he says on Tuesday, that is when the speech is being
:05:37. > :05:36.made. A senior US government official is
:05:37. > :05:40.quoted today by CNN saying they are "99.9% certain" that the 224
:05:41. > :05:42.passengers aboard the Russian jet which crashed into the Sinai Desert
:05:43. > :05:45.last Saturday were the victims That's the view in London as well
:05:46. > :05:51.as Washington and now, A memorial service has been held
:05:52. > :05:59.today in the Russian city of St Petersburg, where the charter
:06:00. > :06:02.flight was heading, while Moscow draws up plans to repatriate 80 000
:06:03. > :06:04.of its holidaymakers from various locations in Egypt, after it
:06:05. > :06:08.suspended all flights there, following in the wake of Britain's
:06:09. > :06:14.decision to suspend flights from Sharm el-Sheikh where thousands of
:06:15. > :06:16.British citizens are still stranded. The downing of the flight is
:06:17. > :06:19.a tragedy for those who lost their lives, and an inconvenience
:06:20. > :06:22.for those stuck in Sharm. But its geopolitical significance
:06:23. > :06:25.will be massive if it represents the emergence of Islamic State,
:06:26. > :06:28.much better funded and organised than al-Qaeda, as a terrorist group
:06:29. > :06:50.capable of hitting targets far from In a moment, we will speak to Steve
:06:51. > :06:52.Rosenberg in St Petersburg. First, we are joined by Sally Nabil from
:06:53. > :06:59.Sharm el-Sheikh. Does the Egyptian Government Phil Borley get
:07:00. > :07:02.now? The British were the first to stop flights, the Americans followed
:07:03. > :07:09.another Russians have banned all flights to Egypt except to get
:07:10. > :07:11.people out, is it beginning to trouble the Cairo Government? The
:07:12. > :07:16.Egyptian Government seems to be in a very tight situation, from an
:07:17. > :07:21.economic perspective. Tourism is very important to the economy, it is
:07:22. > :07:25.a lifeline to the Egyptian economy, which is already in a bad shape and
:07:26. > :07:30.the tourism industry depends mainly on Russia and Britain, so the fact
:07:31. > :07:36.that no more to wrists, from Russia or Britain, will be coming to Egypt
:07:37. > :07:40.is a huge blow to tourism here and Egypt needs foreign currency and it
:07:41. > :07:43.depends on tourist spot that mainly, so it is a major blow to the
:07:44. > :07:48.industry and put the Government in a tight situation. On the other hand,
:07:49. > :07:53.the way the Egyptians have handled security in Sharm el-Sheikh airport
:07:54. > :07:56.was a matter of great concern and criticism from different countries
:07:57. > :08:01.around the world, even the tourists I have spoken to, they told us when
:08:02. > :08:05.they first arrived, the security measures were a mess, so now the
:08:06. > :08:09.measures have been tightened, some to wrists I spoke to yesterday told
:08:10. > :08:19.me it makes them feel better -- some to tourist. If the President Sese
:08:20. > :08:28.Government is feeling beleaguered in Cairo and will take another economic
:08:29. > :08:32.hit because of the tourism, can we expect further crackdown on the
:08:33. > :08:37.Sinai province terrorist groups It is hard to tell at the moment, but
:08:38. > :08:42.the Sinai military operation has been going on for nearly two years
:08:43. > :08:50.now and every now and then, we hear about major attacks carried by
:08:51. > :08:55.mainly the IS affiliated group called the Sinai province, so the
:08:56. > :08:58.fact that the group have operated in Sinai the nearly two years, it seems
:08:59. > :09:02.the insurgency group is still gaining momentum and if it happens
:09:03. > :09:05.to be true they managed to smuggle a bomb on board the plane, it is a
:09:06. > :09:11.major blow to the security operators. Sally Nabil, thank you.
:09:12. > :09:16.Let's go to St Petersburg, we are joined by Steve Rosenberg. Is there
:09:17. > :09:20.any indication yet of how, assuming that it is shown to be a terrorist
:09:21. > :09:27.attack, any indication of how Vladimir Putin is going to respond?
:09:28. > :09:32.No, not yet. I think it is important to remember that despite the growing
:09:33. > :09:38.suspicion that this was a bomb, the official Kremlin line still is that
:09:39. > :09:41.it is keeping an open mind about this disaster, it is treating all
:09:42. > :09:47.theories equally and the Kremlin says the fact that it has suspended
:09:48. > :09:52.all flights to Egypt does not mean it favours the terror theory over
:09:53. > :09:56.any other. Having said that, if it is proven to be a bomb, then judging
:09:57. > :10:00.by the way President Putin has responded in the past to terror
:10:01. > :10:05.attacks, I think we can expect a forceful response from him. How is
:10:06. > :10:10.the domestic politics? I know it is hard to tell, because the media is
:10:11. > :10:14.so controlled by the Kremlin, but is this an opportunity for Mr Putin to
:10:15. > :10:19.further strengthen his position with a tougher crackdown, or is there
:10:20. > :10:23.their fear in the Kremlin that having casualties as a result of his
:10:24. > :10:29.war on terror will not make him very popular? It is an interesting
:10:30. > :10:34.question. I remember back in 20 4, when there was a string of terror
:10:35. > :10:38.attacks on Russian soil, there were bombs in the Moscow Metro, two
:10:39. > :10:46.planes bombed out of the sky and the year ended with the school siege in
:10:47. > :10:50.Beslan, where 330 people were killed. None of that seemed to dent
:10:51. > :10:55.Vladimir Putin's popularity. Quite the opposite, he used it to
:10:56. > :10:59.strengthen the power of the Kremlin. Now, you could argue that if this
:11:00. > :11:03.doesn't prove to have been a bomb, that could undermine the narrative
:11:04. > :11:07.that the Kremlin has been pushing domestically about its military
:11:08. > :11:11.operation in Syria. In other words, Russia has been saying it has been
:11:12. > :11:17.carrying out air strikes in Syria to boost national security in Russia,
:11:18. > :11:22.to destroy terrorists so they couldn't come to Russia and kill
:11:23. > :11:25.people there, that narrative will be seriously undermined. But whether
:11:26. > :11:29.Russians would connect the dots and say, President Putin said we would
:11:30. > :11:32.be safer but we clearly are not I don't think that would happen,
:11:33. > :11:37.because the Kremlin control so tightly the media here, particularly
:11:38. > :11:42.television, and television is the key to influencing public opinion.
:11:43. > :11:45.So if the Kremlin was to change the narrative to something more like we
:11:46. > :11:49.have been attacked, we are the victims of terror, we need to carry
:11:50. > :11:53.on our battle against international terrorism, I think the Russian
:11:54. > :11:56.public would support that and from the people I have spoken to on the
:11:57. > :12:00.streets of St Petersburg this morning, I haven't heard a word of
:12:01. > :12:05.criticism of Vladimir Putin. Most people have said to me, I understand
:12:06. > :12:08.Russia is at threat of terror attacks and they don't seem to
:12:09. > :12:13.connect what may have happened to the Russian air bus with Russia s
:12:14. > :12:17.military operation in Syria. Steve Rosenberg in St Petersburg.
:12:18. > :12:19.We're joined now by the foreign affairs analyst Tim Marshall,
:12:20. > :12:21.Dr Domitilla Sagramoso, an expert in Russian security
:12:22. > :12:24.And joining us from our Plymouth studio is the
:12:25. > :12:29.He sits on the Commons Defence Committee, and is
:12:30. > :12:40.Tim Marshall, if, as the intelligence suggests, this attack
:12:41. > :12:43.was coordinated with Islamic State leaders in Iraq, and its affiliates
:12:44. > :12:49.in the Sinai called soon I province, it means Islamic State has
:12:50. > :12:54.the capability to plot mass casualty attacks outside of Syria and Iraq --
:12:55. > :12:57.called Sinai province. I think in the future, they will be able to do
:12:58. > :13:02.it globally and this is the first sign of them doing it outside of the
:13:03. > :13:08.countries they operate in. The head of the FSB came back the lead met
:13:09. > :13:12.Putin on Friday and Putin immediately set ground the planes,
:13:13. > :13:18.that shows us what they truly believe. Britain is third, it is
:13:19. > :13:31.Russia and Germany and France in the amount of tourists there. President
:13:32. > :13:36.Sisi has been to Moscow three times since he was elected. He is trying
:13:37. > :13:41.to pull Russia back from America. So it is difficult for the Egyptians
:13:42. > :13:44.and Russians to come back out to openly unsaved. So to come back to
:13:45. > :13:51.your original point, I think it is pretty clear that the Isis affiliate
:13:52. > :13:55.in Sinai swore allegiance to Isis in Iraq. They are under a lot of
:13:56. > :14:01.pressure from the Russians, 20% of the bombing was against Syria. They
:14:02. > :14:04.have told their affiliate in the Sinai, you are the ones who can do
:14:05. > :14:07.it from you do the operation, they have killed the Russians and the
:14:08. > :14:14.Russians have to respond, I agree with what the Moscow correspondent
:14:15. > :14:21.said, Putin does not respond -- not not respond, Putin responds and
:14:22. > :14:25.response with violence. Johnny Mercer, if what we are saying is
:14:26. > :14:31.true and it was a planned attack by Islamic State, it takes IS into what
:14:32. > :14:33.is called full spectrum terrorist activity and it is better financed
:14:34. > :14:40.than Al-Qaeda, it is better resourced and organised in Syria and
:14:41. > :14:45.Iraq and Osama Bin Laden ever was sitting in a cave in Afghanistan,
:14:46. > :14:52.this takes the global war on terrorism to a whole new level.
:14:53. > :14:58.This threat is existential. You can see, if this is proved to be
:14:59. > :15:03.something that has originated from so-called Islamic State, you can see
:15:04. > :15:09.their strategic region. This is why the Prime Minister has been going on
:15:10. > :15:12.about this for so long. We have to do something about so-called Islamic
:15:13. > :15:16.State because the threat will only get closer. We see this great
:15:17. > :15:24.outpouring of humanity with that little boy washed up on a beach We
:15:25. > :15:28.have had 30 of our own terrorists massacred in Tunisia.
:15:29. > :15:33.I understand. Is the British response which the Prime Minister
:15:34. > :15:36.has not managed to get Pollard to agree to on deploying eight Tornado
:15:37. > :15:40.jets into Syria, is that really adequate given what you have called
:15:41. > :15:46.an existential threat? We need to do what we are asked to
:15:47. > :15:49.do by the coalition. It is not a question of how much manpower or
:15:50. > :15:53.machinery we are sending but the effect we can achieve on the ground.
:15:54. > :15:57.We have been asked to provide those Tornado jets because they have a
:15:58. > :16:01.specific tactical and technical capability to the coalition are
:16:02. > :16:05.asked when it comes to dynamic targeting within Syria. We should
:16:06. > :16:09.stand up to that and do our duty, and have the stomach for the fight.
:16:10. > :16:15.The idea we are asking people to do some mass bombing in Syria with no
:16:16. > :16:23.strategy, is misinformed. We should have got past this by now.
:16:24. > :16:27.What does this mean for Russia and Mr Putin?
:16:28. > :16:31.To a certain extent, this has brought the ball back to Russia I
:16:32. > :16:36.would disagree with what the correspondent was saying, that the
:16:37. > :16:41.Russians will not be particularly affected and critical of Mr Putin's
:16:42. > :16:45.paper in the Middle East. On the one hand they understand, that is their
:16:46. > :16:55.argument that the President Assad regime needed to be faced for stock
:16:56. > :17:00.because it had fallen, then jihadists groups in Damascus and
:17:01. > :17:04.western parts of the country weather and they understand that.
:17:05. > :17:09.On the other hand, they will put brakes to any attempt to send ground
:17:10. > :17:16.troops which I think they are not planning to do either. I imagine he
:17:17. > :17:20.will have another response to the bombing.
:17:21. > :17:24.He hasn't done much, Tim Marshall. He has been bombing the other groups
:17:25. > :17:26.against President Assad. He may now extend the bombing to
:17:27. > :17:31.Islamic State. If you look at the pattern of
:17:32. > :17:37.bombing, 80% against the Free Syrian Army, it's changed on Thursday.
:17:38. > :17:41.There was an increase on bombing on Isis targets and I think you'll see
:17:42. > :17:47.more of that in coming days. There is no way the Russians will react.
:17:48. > :17:50.The Russian public, if you look at 9/11 and the reaction of the
:17:51. > :17:54.American public, lots of things have happened to lots of countries, the
:17:55. > :17:59.immediate reaction in the first weeks and months is not, our foreign
:18:00. > :18:03.policy is wrong, but revenge. The most potent of many of the human
:18:04. > :18:08.emotions. I am certain in the short term the Russian public will support
:18:09. > :18:18.more action. Your original point, Isis is in Libya, Syria,
:18:19. > :18:23.Afghanistan, Iraq, India, growing very slowly in many other countries,
:18:24. > :18:28.and it has become the poster boy for jihadists. It has replaced Al-Qaeda
:18:29. > :18:32.and with that comes money and people prepared to kill themselves.
:18:33. > :18:37.Johnny Mercer, the head of MI5 says the threat of terrorism to the UK is
:18:38. > :18:42.the highest he has seen, that was before the jet went down over the
:18:43. > :18:46.Sinai desert. We now know, we have had it independently corroborated,
:18:47. > :18:52.that I S has been using mustard gas on civilians in Aleppo, not because
:18:53. > :18:55.it is a very use to them, but as a sign, we have got it, a sign to the
:18:56. > :19:01.West. Is that a response series SATs is
:19:02. > :19:05.there a response seriously adequate to this?
:19:06. > :19:08.Until now, we have not been militarily involved as much as we
:19:09. > :19:13.should have. We are in a difficult place here, we are learning all
:19:14. > :19:17.still healing from the mistakes in the last 15 years in terms of
:19:18. > :19:21.foreign policy engagement. That can't mean we draw up the
:19:22. > :19:26.drawbridge and think the way to keep safe at home and keep our way of
:19:27. > :19:30.life is to have no strategic involvement overseas.
:19:31. > :19:34.If it is proved this is done by so-called Islamic State, it
:19:35. > :19:37.demonstrates their strategic reach and reinforces that argument that we
:19:38. > :19:41.have to do something about this threat. It is only going to come
:19:42. > :19:45.closer and it is not good enough for it to come closer, the something to
:19:46. > :19:52.happen, and afterward for us to say, we should have done this and that.
:19:53. > :19:55.We need an intelligent foreign policy such intervention strategy,
:19:56. > :20:01.this is what the banister is trying to do and we should support him
:20:02. > :20:05.He referred to help Afghanistan and Iraq hang over this country's
:20:06. > :20:11.foreign policy and military responses. Does Afghanistan, from
:20:12. > :20:14.the Soviet era, does that hang over, is it a restraint on what the
:20:15. > :20:18.Kremlin might do today? Totally, they are aware of the risks
:20:19. > :20:24.that occurred when they intervened and the deaths and casualties in
:20:25. > :20:28.Afghanistan. One of the reasons why the Civic union became so weak and
:20:29. > :20:35.eventually led to its disintegration. There is only one
:20:36. > :20:40.other point I would like to make which people in Russia are now
:20:41. > :20:45.talking about, experts, is the fact that to a certain extent this attack
:20:46. > :20:50.was also very much targeted against Egypt. I think a lot of the focus
:20:51. > :20:55.has been on Russia. For me, it was always not very clear white Isis in
:20:56. > :21:00.Egypt in the Sinai desert was going to attack if Russian plane, and why
:21:01. > :21:02.not the people who were under the bombs?
:21:03. > :21:06.It seems very much that we should not forget the dimension that to a
:21:07. > :21:12.certain extent the Russians might not have been the initial main
:21:13. > :21:17.objective of the attack, but to have an impact on Egypt and the Egyptian
:21:18. > :21:23.tourism industry, because a country suffering the most from this attack
:21:24. > :21:27.is actually going to be Egypt. Because its economy is so weak. We
:21:28. > :21:31.had to be more careful when we analysed these groups and the
:21:32. > :21:36.connections, and not immediately assume that Isis is giving this
:21:37. > :21:39.order. I disagree with that interpretation.
:21:40. > :21:43.Tim Marshall, here is the rub at the moment. We now face this potential
:21:44. > :21:49.far wider or dangerous better resourced terrorist threat than ever
:21:50. > :21:55.before. It happens at a time when we want to get together to deal with
:21:56. > :22:00.this but the British are not bombing in Syria. Our allies America have
:22:01. > :22:04.stopped bombing, Saudi Arabia, UAE, has devoted its jets, Bahrain has
:22:05. > :22:10.not been part of anything since debris, the Saudis since September,
:22:11. > :22:15.Jordan since August. America which is half-hearted in this, is almost
:22:16. > :22:21.on its own in dealing with this now. And with a president not keen on
:22:22. > :22:25.doing this, who was pushed into it. The British situation is different.
:22:26. > :22:28.The politics of the matter, it is clear, is not in the House of
:22:29. > :22:33.Commons. The SNP, Labour, Tory rebels, will
:22:34. > :22:39.vote it down. We were talking earlier, because of a rock, we are
:22:40. > :22:51.not going to do without Parliamentary vote. -- Iraq.
:22:52. > :22:54.The French are putting their aircraft carrier back into the Gulf.
:22:55. > :22:56.It was that the two months and they are selling it back from another
:22:57. > :23:02.operation. At the request of the Americans In
:23:03. > :23:08.2007, since then, the Americans do not have a carrier in the Gulf.
:23:09. > :23:17.The Tornado jets would make a difference. To say, we as a culture
:23:18. > :23:21.with commonalities in our belief systems, we are standing together.
:23:22. > :23:28.At the moment, they are not. We will leave it there.
:23:29. > :23:31.The uneasy truce between supporters of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn
:23:32. > :23:35.and the majority of Labour MPs is under renewed strain this week.
:23:36. > :23:38.First, MPs from the right of the party swept the board
:23:39. > :23:41.at elections for posts that will give them a role in making policy.
:23:42. > :23:43.Then Mr Corbyn's senior policy adviser, a young man called
:23:44. > :23:46.Andrew Fisher, was suspended from the party, apparently after Blairite
:23:47. > :23:48.MPs complained he had backed an anarchist at the general election
:23:49. > :23:57.We already know that at least one MP wants to trigger
:23:58. > :24:02.a leadership election if next May's election results are underwhelming.
:24:03. > :24:05.But, if there is a contest, how would it work, and what hurdles
:24:06. > :24:07.would face Mr Corbyn and his potential challengers?
:24:08. > :24:09.Giles has been delving into the Labour Party rule book
:24:10. > :24:19.Be warned, there is flash photography in his film.
:24:20. > :24:22.That some Labour MPs did not and do not want Jeremy Corbyn
:24:23. > :24:28.That there are internal tensions between some MPs and Jeremy Corbyn's
:24:29. > :24:38.That Labour has not removed a sitting leader since 1935 is a fact.
:24:39. > :24:41.And that Jeremy Corbyn won the ballot to become leader with
:24:42. > :24:49.a whisker off 60% of the vote is also a fact.
:24:50. > :24:52.What is surprising about these facts is that it's Jeremy Corbyn's team
:24:53. > :24:55.themselves who are very keen to see the rules surrounding any challenge
:24:56. > :25:02.Because, when it comes to the rule book, the mechanism for such
:25:03. > :25:12.It starts well enough with chapter four, clause two, B, two:
:25:13. > :25:24.The wording of this clause is, in fact, already out-of-date as
:25:25. > :25:29.of last conference, as any MP who can get 20% of support from
:25:30. > :25:32.Labour Parliamentarians, that's MPs and now MEPs which, as of now means
:25:33. > :25:39.Whether there is anyone who could do that at the moment is
:25:40. > :25:42.a very moot point, however much some might wish there was.
:25:43. > :25:45.If they get them, they then write to the Party General Secretary, and
:25:46. > :25:54.Then Labour's National Executive Committee decides the timetable and
:25:55. > :26:01.The problem is, nowhere in the rules is it specified what happens next.
:26:02. > :26:03.It seems, within party circles, depending on their views,
:26:04. > :26:13.The challenger or challengers are put on the ballot with
:26:14. > :26:20.But the incumbent leader then needs 15% of Labour Parliamentarians to
:26:21. > :26:32.nominate them so they too appear on it.
:26:33. > :26:37.He is not popular inside the PLP, that is very clear.
:26:38. > :26:39.So, if he's not going to go through automatically,
:26:40. > :26:42.he has to knock on doors and get people to sign the form
:26:43. > :26:48.The challenger is on the ballot others may also seek 20% nomination
:26:49. > :27:00.threshold, and they too appear, but the leader is automatically included
:27:01. > :27:03.The idea, the incumbent, somebody with 60% of the electorate in the
:27:04. > :27:06.Labour Party, might not be on the ballot paper, yet someone at best
:27:07. > :27:09.on the fringes of the Labour Party could be, is obviously unthinkable.
:27:10. > :27:14.Only the named challenger goes forward
:27:15. > :27:17.with their 20% nomination, and it is a straight binary head-to-head with
:27:18. > :27:23.the leader who again is automatically in the contest.
:27:24. > :27:29.Mr Corbyn might need more protective gear from scenario one and two, but
:27:30. > :27:34.this programme understands option three is what the current leader's
:27:35. > :27:38.team and the party solicitor think is the correct interpretation.
:27:39. > :27:41.Of course, any talk of leadership challenges
:27:42. > :27:46.might well upset the 60% of those who clearly wanted Jeremy Corbyn to
:27:47. > :27:50.not only lead the party but lead it into the 2020 general election.
:27:51. > :27:55.This wouldn't happen in any other organisation where you
:27:56. > :27:58.have a new CEO judged on metrics that happened in the
:27:59. > :28:03.Let us give him a bit more time before we start mounting challenges
:28:04. > :28:06.or talking about challenges, because he does have an overwhelming mandate
:28:07. > :28:11.Nonetheless, in bars and offices across Westminster, some Labour MPs
:28:12. > :28:16.are thinking into the night how they can stop Jeremy Corbyn.
:28:17. > :28:20.And some have no desire to remove him,
:28:21. > :28:26.but think the idea of challenging any leader is important as an idea.
:28:27. > :28:29.As a historian, I realise the Labour Party has a major problem
:28:30. > :28:38.And I want a situation where it can say
:28:39. > :28:41.they are not doing a decent job and therefore they have got to go.
:28:42. > :28:49.Because if he had won, he's there for two or three years.
:28:50. > :28:51.So, if the rules were clarified would it make
:28:52. > :28:58.I can't see it happening for a very long time.
:28:59. > :29:00.At the moment, the only way to be able to get rid
:29:01. > :29:04.of Jeremy Corbyn, if that is what you want, is to convince people he
:29:05. > :29:10.I see absolutely no evidence of that happening at all.
:29:11. > :29:19.Of course that doesn't mean someone won't try.
:29:20. > :29:27.Pole, even if the Parliamentary party had the stomach for a coup
:29:28. > :29:31.against Mr Corbyn, it would result in civil war within the party
:29:32. > :29:33.because the next election would go back to the same electorate that
:29:34. > :29:46.elected Mr Corbin? could happen but if he was an
:29:47. > :29:51.absolute disaster, losing by-elections, and by disaster,
:29:52. > :29:54.significantly worse than Ed Miliband's results. After all,
:29:55. > :29:59.Labour doesn't get rid of its leaders. Until something of that
:30:00. > :30:01.kind happens, where you have a really persuasive argument that
:30:02. > :30:07.there is not a hope in hell of him winning the next election, that
:30:08. > :30:11.might bring the party round, but any rebels had to bring enough up the
:30:12. > :30:16.party round to say, look, winning is what really matters and this guy
:30:17. > :30:22.isn't going to win for us. Are there people talking, plotting coup is
:30:23. > :30:26.already? Of course, the counterrevolutionaries, and they are
:30:27. > :30:31.delighted with themselves in the PLP, they have a serious of
:30:32. > :30:34.modernisers who have been elected to the chairmanship of these committees
:30:35. > :30:41.-- a series of modernisers. 10% of them visited bag of loot voted for
:30:42. > :30:45.this candle. The problem is, they have the power to trigger a
:30:46. > :30:51.leadership contest but do not have the power to decide the contest
:30:52. > :30:54.that will be for the people who overwhelmingly voted for Mr Corbyn
:30:55. > :31:00.and I agree, it will take up catastrophic meltdown over the next
:31:01. > :31:03.year to get the contest taking place, but even if you had that
:31:04. > :31:07.contest, I still think you will find, because he has only been there
:31:08. > :31:12.a year, his supporters will say it is not our fault, give him more time
:31:13. > :31:16.and you will find even in those circumstances, Jeremy Corbyn or
:31:17. > :31:20.Jeremy Corbyn person would win. Mr Corbyn does sometimes create
:31:21. > :31:25.unnecessary problems for himself. Let me show you this clip from
:31:26. > :31:28.Andrew Fisher, he was a political adviser to Mr Corbyn. He has been
:31:29. > :31:31.suspended from the party but he is still working for the Labour
:31:32. > :31:33.leader. One of its problems is this is what he had to say.
:31:34. > :31:36.I had the most excruciating half-hour of my life where I was
:31:37. > :31:40.I sometimes have nightmares, very violent, bloody nightmares
:31:41. > :31:45.But it was excruciating and he said, look, we got to explain to people
:31:46. > :31:48.there is more to life than moving from the bedroom to the sofa.
:31:49. > :31:51.That was his attitude towards people who are unemployed.
:31:52. > :31:55.For this plummy accented, Oxbridge-educated Tory
:31:56. > :31:58.in a red rosette, frankly, to be saying that, was the most
:31:59. > :32:10.It took every sinew of my self-discipline not to thump him.
:32:11. > :32:18.Though Mr Fischer is no stranger to defend himself, having called other
:32:19. > :32:22.Labour members vile gits and scumbags. You wonder why Mr Corbyn
:32:23. > :32:25.feels he needs someone like this. And if you think Mr Corbyn is trying
:32:26. > :32:32.to prevent an internal push against himself, why he would making the
:32:33. > :32:35.late make several of the personnel decisions he has -- why he would be
:32:36. > :32:39.making several other personnel decisions. If you are hoping to get
:32:40. > :32:42.him out, your hub would have to be that the new members that have
:32:43. > :32:46.changed the composition of the Labour Party are not hardened,
:32:47. > :32:49.militia style activists that will defend him to the last ditch, but
:32:50. > :32:53.are dreamers and kids who got excited over the summer and will
:32:54. > :32:57.break away in the coming years and will realise that internal party
:32:58. > :33:02.warfare means turning up to tedious meetings on a wet Thursday night and
:33:03. > :33:05.they will not be there to protect him in the worst instances. I think
:33:06. > :33:08.Polly is right, he won't go unless he is an obvious disaster, but I
:33:09. > :33:13.don't think he will come across as an obvious disaster until the spring
:33:14. > :33:19.of 2020, by which time it is too late and Labour have already lost
:33:20. > :33:21.the last of the late next election. -- lost the next election.
:33:22. > :33:24.It's coming up to one o'clock, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:33:25. > :33:27.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:33:28. > :33:30.Coming up here in 20 minutes, we'll be talking to
:33:31. > :33:32.Shadow Health Secretary Heidi Alexander about the row over
:33:33. > :33:35.First, though, the Sunday Politics where you are.
:33:36. > :33:42.Why do Londoners seem less keen than others to enlist with our
:33:43. > :33:47.Stephen Pound, Labour MP for Ealing North.
:33:48. > :33:49.And Bob Stewart, Tory MP for Beckenham or,
:33:50. > :34:00.as many people know him, Colonel Bob Stewart of the Cheshire Regiment.
:34:01. > :34:09.And I was able seaman pound, by the way. Lest we forget.
:34:10. > :34:11.First, though, to the campaign against policing cuts in
:34:12. > :34:14.the capital, which we talked about last week, but which has been given
:34:15. > :34:17.yet more thrust by a leaked letter to Government, signed by London s
:34:18. > :34:21.Deputy Mayor for Policing among others, warning of potential legal
:34:22. > :34:31.Let's begin on this. Are there areas -- other areas public sector light
:34:32. > :34:37.have faced the chill wind of reforms, are they being seen to make
:34:38. > :34:41.too much of a fuss? In a way, they should, because they are trying to
:34:42. > :34:45.represent themselves but equally, they have such a hugely responsible
:34:46. > :34:51.business in hand, even though I watched the rioting, where police
:34:52. > :34:56.were hurt in Whitehall by so-called anarchists. We all have great
:34:57. > :34:59.sympathy for the police but the answer to your question is, yes I'm
:35:00. > :35:03.afraid the police have got to look very carefully at how they spend our
:35:04. > :35:08.money. So it is fair that they should be looking to prepare for 25%
:35:09. > :35:13.cuts and if it means fewer officers and fewer officers in your neck of
:35:14. > :35:18.the woods in Beckenham, so be it? Well, yes, so be it. We can only
:35:19. > :35:22.have what we can afford, but actually, we want to look very
:35:23. > :35:26.carefully at where the cuts are and the Government I know are trying
:35:27. > :35:29.like hell to make sure the cuts are not where it matters and as far as
:35:30. > :35:33.the public is concerned, people like all of us here, where it
:35:34. > :35:37.matters is the front line. Can we live with these cuts question mark
:35:38. > :35:42.the police exaggerating potentially the impact of this? I don't think
:35:43. > :35:47.they are and before we go any further, we should send our best
:35:48. > :35:51.wishes to the three police officers very badly injured in the line of
:35:52. > :35:54.duty and sincerely hope they are out of hospital quickly. We cannot
:35:55. > :36:00.afford not to have the police, society cannot function without the
:36:01. > :36:03.police force. Full in the last 0-15 years, policing in London has gone
:36:04. > :36:06.through a massive change, with the safer neighbourhood teams,
:36:07. > :36:10.neighbourhood policing, all of which was quite positive. What is
:36:11. > :36:15.happening now is a fall in certain types of crime is now being expended
:36:16. > :36:19.out and extrapolated into grounds for reducing the police budget. Just
:36:20. > :36:22.as we cannot afford not to have a properly funded Health Service,
:36:23. > :36:26.because if we do not have a healthy workforce, we do not work, if we
:36:27. > :36:31.don't have a safe community, we have no life in the city. The commission
:36:32. > :36:35.has said in relation to the protests, two sets this week, that
:36:36. > :36:39.he can't guarantee, it might be a problem being able to police these
:36:40. > :36:43.in future of what you say to that? It is true and this Sunday,
:36:44. > :36:47.Remembrance Sunday, in Epping, the police will not be unable to allow
:36:48. > :36:50.the Royal British Legion parade and service of remembrance to take place
:36:51. > :36:53.because they do not have the police officers. I cannot believe in the
:36:54. > :36:58.sixth seventh richest country in the world, we cannot afford to properly
:36:59. > :37:04.fund the police force. Without them, there is no safe society. I can t
:37:05. > :37:08.disagree with that. The problem is there will be no society at all
:37:09. > :37:12.unless we can afford it. There is a real problem. We have a national
:37:13. > :37:17.liquidity problem which we have got to solve one way or another. I
:37:18. > :37:20.agree, we have to have a decent Health Service, of course, and we
:37:21. > :37:26.have to have an effective policing and the three men that were hurt
:37:27. > :37:29.yesterday, we all... What you say about that? When the commissioner
:37:30. > :37:33.says he will have trouble dealing with protests like this, what do you
:37:34. > :37:37.say? I know what the Commissioner does already, they bring in
:37:38. > :37:40.policeman from across the country, that is happening already. What he
:37:41. > :37:46.means is he will have to bring more in. They did that in the riots in
:37:47. > :37:50.2011. Bernard Hogan-Howe is not an alarmist, he is cool and
:37:51. > :37:53.hard-headed. A very sensible police officer and if someone like him is
:37:54. > :37:56.saying this, which is unprecedented for a Commissioner of the
:37:57. > :38:00.Metropolitan police, we have to take it very seriously. And the final
:38:01. > :38:03.vote from me, I think they will if Bernard is saying that. Everybody is
:38:04. > :38:04.trusting him. Plans for a Garden Bridge across
:38:05. > :38:07.the River Thames are proving rather One of the points of contention
:38:08. > :38:11.for those who object to the whole concept is that ?60
:38:12. > :38:14.million of public money has been ?30 million from the Mayor or,
:38:15. > :38:19.in effect, Transport for London Last month, one
:38:20. > :38:21.of the local planning authorities involved, Lambeth, said it wouldn't
:38:22. > :38:23.negotiate any further unless this The Garden Bridge was given
:38:24. > :38:33.the go-ahead by Boris Johnson But has since been dogged
:38:34. > :38:38.by the issues of need, desirability, and who was paying for
:38:39. > :38:41.its construction and maintenance. In September, Lambeth Council
:38:42. > :38:45.seemingly killed off the idea by suspending lease negotiations
:38:46. > :38:48.on land needed for the bridge. Concerned that too much public money
:38:49. > :38:52.had been committed to the project. Now it is back on,
:38:53. > :38:55.after council leader Lib Peck reached a deal to limit Transport
:38:56. > :38:59.For London's contributions from ?30 reached a deal to limit Transport
:39:00. > :39:01.For London's contributions from The Labour mayoral candidate Sadiq
:39:02. > :39:06.Khan was quick to claim a share of Despite the deal, the trust
:39:07. > :39:11.behind the bridge can still spend up ?20 million of which is in the
:39:12. > :39:17.form of a 50-year loan agreement. Some doubters have
:39:18. > :39:19.not been won over. The Labour MP in the Lambeth
:39:20. > :39:21.constituency This is not really a deal, but
:39:22. > :39:27.a cobbling together of facts and figures, putting it in a way that
:39:28. > :39:31.makes it look like the public is still saving money, but actually the
:39:32. > :39:35.public is still paying for a project that should never be happening
:39:36. > :39:39.in that area. I do not know why Sadiq has got drawn into this
:39:40. > :39:42.and has changed his mind. I'm very hopeful he can
:39:43. > :39:46.do another U-turn. It seems questions might be
:39:47. > :39:49.asked whether an immediate saving Joining us, Lib Peck,
:39:50. > :40:04.leader of Lambeth Council. Clear this up, a month ago or a few
:40:05. > :40:07.weeks ago, you were saying you didn't want to go ahead with this
:40:08. > :40:12.bridge and now you are saying it is fine to go ahead. Do you know what
:40:13. > :40:15.you're doing? I am very clear, it is a creative and ambitious scheme and
:40:16. > :40:18.I hope it will become as distinctive as something like the London eye but
:40:19. > :40:21.I don't think it can come at any cost. We have been clear that
:40:22. > :40:28.Lambeth will not pay anything towards the scheme and we have
:40:29. > :40:30.become increasingly concerned about the way money has been spent and
:40:31. > :40:33.pledged and Transport for London are down to spending 30 million. So that
:40:34. > :40:38.is your only concern, you like the money magnet project but you think
:40:39. > :40:46.public money should not be spent on it -- you like the project. ?20
:40:47. > :40:51.million has only been spent by TfL. And 30 million has been contracted.
:40:52. > :40:55.And under this arrangement, 20 million will only be alone, not a
:40:56. > :40:59.long-term spend? We have intervened to make sure that what was going to
:41:00. > :41:04.cost the London taxpayer ?30 million is now going to cost the London
:41:05. > :41:06.taxpayer ?10 million, a saving of 20 million for the people of Lambeth
:41:07. > :41:14.and the constituencies the gentleman represent. TfL will spend the money
:41:15. > :41:17.but to say it will be alone? TfL have spent ?20 million already and
:41:18. > :41:21.have contracted a further ?10 million to make sure they can get
:41:22. > :41:28.in... That they will get the money back? Yes, we will make sure that
:41:29. > :41:32.the Garden Bridge Trust do more fundraising, they basically reduce
:41:33. > :41:35.the cost of the overall project and pay back some of the money to
:41:36. > :41:38.Transport for London. But this trust is struggling to get the money
:41:39. > :41:42.together to build it in the first place, it doesn't look like it will
:41:43. > :41:46.have huge amounts of income, how has TfL been allowed to agree this kind
:41:47. > :41:51.of deal when there is no guarantee of this money being paid back? It is
:41:52. > :41:57.a legal agreement, bit like a mortgage, repayment loan and they
:41:58. > :42:00.have to pay interest on it, so is a watertight agreement we have with
:42:01. > :42:06.TfL that has reduced the overall cost to the taxpayer. So it is being
:42:07. > :42:10.paid back over 50 years? Yes, but in the interim, they will do a lot to
:42:11. > :42:13.reduce the cost and increase the private fundraising. Is there a
:42:14. > :42:19.guarantee it gets paid back with interest? No loss to the taxpayer?
:42:20. > :42:23.There is absolute guarantee, this is a good deal, we have intervened and
:42:24. > :42:27.our powers as Lambeth Council to get a better deal for the residents of
:42:28. > :42:30.Lambeth and the residents of London. You were concerned about the public
:42:31. > :42:37.money and so has Sadiq Khan, the mayoral candidate. We heard from
:42:38. > :42:42.Kate Howey, he doesn't know what he is doing, she implied, he has
:42:43. > :42:46.turned, he was against it and now supports it. What is your take?
:42:47. > :42:50.Sadiq Khan has been clear from the beginning, he likes the project and
:42:51. > :42:55.is ambitious but has concerns over the public money. We have to put it
:42:56. > :42:59.in context, 56% cuts in our grant from central Government, I cannot
:43:00. > :43:02.with my hand on my heart talk about saving public money and being
:43:03. > :43:06.responsible with it and allow something that is spending public
:43:07. > :43:10.money in the former that carelessly. We know Lambeth was involved in
:43:11. > :43:14.negotiations, how much was Sadiq Khan involved to make sure the 20
:43:15. > :43:19.million will come back? He is not involved, I am the leader of Lambeth
:43:20. > :43:24.Council, I am my own woman, I was at negotiations, but Sadiq Khan made
:43:25. > :43:27.his views clear. He gave the impression he has taken credit for
:43:28. > :43:32.it. Not at all, I work closely with him and I think he will make an
:43:33. > :43:34.excellent mail. What about the whole project, you have been unhappy with
:43:35. > :43:39.the funding behind it but other Labour councillors, perhaps
:43:40. > :43:43.particularly in that area, don't like the whole thing. And a lot of
:43:44. > :43:47.local people don't like it, so why are you going ahead with it? There
:43:48. > :43:51.are people close to the bridge who are opposed to it and Kate Hoey the
:43:52. > :43:55.local MP, has come out against the bridge and I am sure she will now
:43:56. > :43:59.become quite vociferous in some of the things she thinks our concerns,
:44:00. > :44:03.but they will be addressed through planning conditions. When it went to
:44:04. > :44:06.Lambeth planning committee, it was granted permission but with 46
:44:07. > :44:10.conditions attached concerning things like noise and congestion and
:44:11. > :44:14.construction, and all of those need to be satisfied before the bridge
:44:15. > :44:18.moves on to the next phase. What do you think? I think everybody would
:44:19. > :44:22.start from the same place, if we can do it without massively impacting on
:44:23. > :44:26.Londoners, what a great idea and it will be extremely interesting, Kate
:44:27. > :44:31.Hoey and Joanna Lumley on opposite sides, it isn't going to be dull.
:44:32. > :44:34.But this is actually a really good exciting idea and it is about time
:44:35. > :44:38.we had a few schemes like this and one of the things you talked about,
:44:39. > :44:42.the Bridge trust raising their own money, you negotiated this, so you
:44:43. > :44:46.would know, it is 12 days a year they are going to be able to fund
:44:47. > :44:51.raise using the bridge itself, so they have a sensible... And you
:44:52. > :44:55.think that is OK? Some people have a problem with it because it is not a
:44:56. > :44:58.genuine public right-of-way access. I would be happy with the bridge
:44:59. > :45:03.that I didn't have before if I could have it every day of the year bar
:45:04. > :45:09.12. I still think commuters from Waterloo, crossing the river going
:45:10. > :45:11.to bank, this is really quite exciting and I like the idea of
:45:12. > :45:22.London leading. I came across Hungerford Bridge
:45:23. > :45:26.What to think of the garden idea? I think, OK.
:45:27. > :45:30.I am worried about sightlines been ruined, wonderful sights from
:45:31. > :45:33.Waterloo Bridge down river and I hope that won't interfere with that
:45:34. > :45:37.incredible panorama. Regarding costs.
:45:38. > :45:41.In the end, we will pay one way or the other. Some will pay, it means
:45:42. > :45:46.ask one way or the other. It is a good idea, it looks jolly nice,
:45:47. > :45:50.something unique. He is right to worry about the
:45:51. > :45:53.sightlines? Not at all, they have been addressed by our planning
:45:54. > :45:58.committee and considered seriously. I contest the fact we are all going
:45:59. > :46:02.to pay for it anyway, we have secured a great deal.
:46:03. > :46:06.Will this happen, will the building start soon? It has to go through
:46:07. > :46:12.planning conditions and we are resuming land negotiations and that
:46:13. > :46:14.is on our land in Lambeth. Thank you for clarifying that.
:46:15. > :46:17.At this time of Remembrance, we've taken a look
:46:18. > :46:21.And we've found out that Londoners make up a disproportionately small
:46:22. > :46:23.share of those signing up to serve their country.
:46:24. > :46:25.As Andrew Cryan reports, it's apparently because of
:46:26. > :46:32.London's pomp and ceremony help draw tourists
:46:33. > :46:36.The changing of the guards, Trooping of the Colour
:46:37. > :46:39.and the annual Remembrance Day commemoration all help to make
:46:40. > :46:42.the capital in many ways the focal point of British military ceremony.
:46:43. > :46:45.But while London as a capital city might will host the set-piece
:46:46. > :46:48.military events, a series of Freedom of Information requests from this
:46:49. > :46:50.programme has found that ordinary Londoners seem very reluctant
:46:51. > :46:59.to sign up and join the Armed Forces.
:47:00. > :47:01.The official estimate is that London makes up 13%
:47:02. > :47:06.But in the last period we have figures for,
:47:07. > :47:11.recruitment from London centres accounted for just 6% of the Army,
:47:12. > :47:13.7.5% of the RAF's so-called Phase One intake
:47:14. > :47:16.and 3% of the Navy, not at officer level.
:47:17. > :47:18.James Cleverly is the MP for Braintree,
:47:19. > :47:21.a member of the London Assembly and serves in the Territorial Army.
:47:22. > :47:26.He thinks the capital's large ethnic minority population is a key factor.
:47:27. > :47:28.Sons follow fathers and increasingly, in this day
:47:29. > :47:36.So when you haven't got a track record
:47:37. > :47:39.of people from ethnic backgrounds in the Armed Forces, that is one
:47:40. > :47:41.opportunity for recruitment that is a little bit tougher.
:47:42. > :47:45.But the numbers signing up for the RAF and the Navy are so small that
:47:46. > :47:48.the MoD are unable to provide data for those signing up last year from
:47:49. > :47:55.The Army didn't give us comparable figures, but of service men
:47:56. > :47:58.from the UK in their ranks, just 4% come from ethnic minorities.
:47:59. > :48:02.Waleed Ghani is a Muslim Londoner who served in the forces.
:48:03. > :48:05.He thinks there is more to the London figures than simply
:48:06. > :48:10.The whole culture of the Army is one that is very provincial,
:48:11. > :48:17.very traditional, very conservative, and that's just not London.
:48:18. > :48:19.Recruitment's really high in garrison towns and places in
:48:20. > :48:22.the country where the Army is very visible, whereas in London, you only
:48:23. > :48:25.really see the Army when it comes to ceremonial things like the Cenotaph
:48:26. > :48:32.on Remembrance Sunday or Buckingham Palace or Horse Guards.
:48:33. > :48:34.Along with official military parades,
:48:35. > :48:41.an annual march of the West Indian Servicemen Association in Brixton.
:48:42. > :48:44.It was set up, they say, due to a lack of black faces
:48:45. > :48:48.at the official Remembrance Sunday commemorations.
:48:49. > :48:50.Some of the old guys came and they said,
:48:51. > :48:53.you have got to do something about this
:48:54. > :48:56.and I said, I will think of something that we can do.
:48:57. > :48:58.So then one day I said, right, you know what?
:48:59. > :49:03.We are going to have our own march past.
:49:04. > :49:06.We'll invite all the services and also all the youngsters who are
:49:07. > :49:09.in the services to come along, so that we are effectively doing
:49:10. > :49:15.a recruitment and marketing drive for the respective forces.
:49:16. > :49:34.In a statement, the Ministry Of Defence told us
:49:35. > :49:36.So, when asked if they would join the Army,
:49:37. > :49:47.No, I'd be too scared, I'm not fit enough for it.
:49:48. > :49:49.I don't know, it is just patriotism, I guess.
:49:50. > :49:51.It's not good, like, why would I join...?
:49:52. > :49:54.Imagine I got posted in Afghanistan, what am I going to do,
:49:55. > :50:01.I don't really have the option here, though, I'm not British.
:50:02. > :50:03.But whatever the many reasons behind it may be, the separate
:50:04. > :50:05.question is what difference Londoners' reluctance to sign up
:50:06. > :50:15.actually makes on the Armed Forces' ability to defend the realm.
:50:16. > :50:24.Let us pick up on that, does it matter? Does it make a difference?
:50:25. > :50:29.Yes, the problem is London and the South generally, Tim, are pretty
:50:30. > :50:34.poor at recruiting soldiers, sailors and airmen, pretty good at
:50:35. > :50:39.officers. The old maxim used to be, officers recruited from the south,
:50:40. > :50:44.soldiers from the north. It is a silly comment. But at the
:50:45. > :50:48.same time it is fairly true. The opportunities, still true, the
:50:49. > :50:54.opportunities for people in the South are better than in the North.
:50:55. > :50:58.So, naturally enough, they have more job chances in London and the South.
:50:59. > :51:03.Stephen Pound, true generally except in places, the naval bin, like
:51:04. > :51:08.Portsmouth? It is very different. The Armed
:51:09. > :51:12.Forces in the counties where you have the county regiments, there is
:51:13. > :51:18.clearly an association. If you go to the House of Commons, they is a
:51:19. > :51:21.beautiful painting of the Battle of Trafalgar.
:51:22. > :51:27.Look at the deck of victory and you will see black faces, black sailors
:51:28. > :51:31.serving on Nelson's flagship. The first VC for 30 years, Johnson they
:51:32. > :51:36.harry, from grenade. The way forward is to have people
:51:37. > :51:40.recognise this is not a question of ethnicity but job opportunities Who
:51:41. > :51:45.will join the Armed Forces if you think you will be made redundant?
:51:46. > :51:50.Today there are twice as many in prison...
:51:51. > :51:55.If we take up that economic point, and assume it exists, we know the
:51:56. > :52:01.rates of joblessness are higher among ethnic minorities in London.
:52:02. > :52:03.Some, fair enough. Is there an issue?
:52:04. > :52:07.The Armed Forces are not where the police are in terms of diverse
:52:08. > :52:14.recruitment? I do not know the answer, I really don't.
:52:15. > :52:18.You have no expense? When I was commanding a battalion, I did not
:52:19. > :52:22.care what people looked like. It was what was said in their eyes
:52:23. > :52:26.that mattered. There is a tradition, in the north,
:52:27. > :52:30.if I was a colonel wandering around recruiting in Manchester and
:52:31. > :52:34.Newcastle, people would say, Colonel, I have two boys in the
:52:35. > :52:39.Army. Down the South McCutcheon in the
:52:40. > :52:44.south, it is not the same. The ethnic stuff?
:52:45. > :52:51.I really hope people see the Army as an equal opportunity opportunity --
:52:52. > :52:54.employer in all ways. As a past commanding officer, I never even
:52:55. > :52:58.considered... Is civil servant asked me, how many
:52:59. > :53:04.people from ethnic backgrounds are in my battalion, I said, no idea.
:53:05. > :53:11.We heard the Muslim woman in that report very reluctant.
:53:12. > :53:15.When my father took me to the recruiting office in high Holborn,
:53:16. > :53:18.that is where a Londoner joint than ever.
:53:19. > :53:23.It is a significant point but another issue, that question about
:53:24. > :53:26.who we are fighting. Someone saying they were too scared.
:53:27. > :53:29.Briefly. I am sorry, we have run out of time.
:53:30. > :53:32.My thanks to Bob Stewart and to Stephen Pound and, with that,
:53:33. > :53:40.The row between junior doctors and Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt has
:53:41. > :53:43.The disagreement centres around a proposed new contract
:53:44. > :53:48.The Government says the existing arrangements are outdated
:53:49. > :53:51.and claims the move will help deliver the Conservative manifesto
:53:52. > :53:56.The British Medical Association representing junior doctors, says
:53:57. > :53:59.the changes will result in working practices that are unsafe and unfair
:54:00. > :54:06.Any industrial action could involve a walk-out from all
:54:07. > :54:09.but emergency work, in what is likely to be the biggest
:54:10. > :54:16.Well, the Labour Party has called on Mr Hunt to scrap his plans,
:54:17. > :54:24.and the Shadow Health Secretary Heidi Alexander joins us now.
:54:25. > :54:30.Welcome to the programme. Is the Labour Party in favour of the
:54:31. > :54:35.concept of a 7 day a week Health Service? We are but I think you need
:54:36. > :54:37.to understand the barriers that exist in order to provide that
:54:38. > :54:42.service. Jeremy Hunt the Health Secretary has
:54:43. > :54:46.implied that if you change the junior doctors's contract, then in
:54:47. > :54:52.some way that automatically means you have a 7 day NHS. It doesn't.
:54:53. > :54:57.You don't just need junior doctors. They are already working weekends
:54:58. > :55:03.and nights. You need consultant cover, diagnostics support,
:55:04. > :55:07.pharmacists, 24/7 social care. If Jeremy Hunt isn't being honest
:55:08. > :55:13.about the resources he would put in to deliver that 24/7 NHS, then
:55:14. > :55:16.picking a fight with junior doctors which is what he seems determined to
:55:17. > :55:24.do at the moment, will not provide the solution he said it will.
:55:25. > :55:31.If you wanted a proper 7-day-a-week NHS, would you also had to change
:55:32. > :55:35.the junior doctors's contract? I'm not totally convinced that
:55:36. > :55:39.changing their contracts will actually result in more junior
:55:40. > :55:43.doctors being available on the ward. There are some things that should
:55:44. > :55:47.probably... You have said the existing contract
:55:48. > :55:51.is not perfect, do you need to change it in some ways for seven day
:55:52. > :55:56.cover? Along with the things you mentioned. If you listened to what
:55:57. > :56:00.hospital bosses and chief executive say, they are saying very clearly
:56:01. > :56:03.that the junior doctor contract is not the main issue here.
:56:04. > :56:08.There are other things that would need to change. One of the things
:56:09. > :56:11.that really concerns junior doctors is that the proposals that seemed to
:56:12. > :56:15.be on the table at the moment are bad for patient safety, and they are
:56:16. > :56:33.not convinced that the proposals will result in them not working even
:56:34. > :56:35.more excessive and exhausting hours than they at the moment.
:56:36. > :56:37.The contract at the moment has financial penalties built into it
:56:38. > :56:39.which means, if a hospital forces junior doctors to work very long
:56:40. > :56:41.hours, then that hospital is financially penalised. And that
:56:42. > :56:44.system, whilst it may not be perfect, has the broad confidence of
:56:45. > :56:46.junior doctors, and they are very worried this proposal that has come
:56:47. > :56:51.forward in the last couple of days, even though negotiations have been
:56:52. > :56:55.going on for years, will compromise patient safety.
:56:56. > :56:58.Was the BMA right to begin a strike ballot without sitting down with
:56:59. > :57:03.Jeremy Hunt over the new offer? I think the BMA and junior doctors
:57:04. > :57:07.feel that they have been backed into a corner because of the way that
:57:08. > :57:11.Jeremy Hunt has handled these negotiations.
:57:12. > :57:17.He started off by saying that the BMA and junior doctors would have
:57:18. > :57:20.two agreed to 22 out of 23 preconditions laid down by the
:57:21. > :57:23.doctors and dentists's remuneration board.
:57:24. > :57:28.He went on to imply, which has angered Junor doctors even more if
:57:29. > :57:34.you change this contract it will somehow result in lives being saved.
:57:35. > :57:38.And then we have a situation on Wednesday, 24 hours before the
:57:39. > :57:43.ballot of junior doctors is due to start, that he decides the best way
:57:44. > :57:48.to conduct negotiations is to issue a press release from the Department
:57:49. > :57:53.of Health. And that is the best way to conduct negotiations.
:57:54. > :57:59.He has been talking to the BMA since 2012, this is not a new problem
:58:00. > :58:04.He has made an 11% pay offer. He said other than the few already
:58:05. > :58:07.working illegal hours, less than 1% would see come would lose some pain
:58:08. > :58:13.but that is because they would not be working as much. 75% would get a
:58:14. > :58:18.rise, is that not something worth talking about?
:58:19. > :58:24.A lot of this is spent, Andrew. How do you know?
:58:25. > :58:28.The 11% pay offer applies to a proportion of the junior doctors's
:58:29. > :58:32.contract, the other proportion of their wage will actually be going
:58:33. > :58:39.down. So, you cannot say that this is an 11% pay rise. Let me finish
:58:40. > :58:43.this point. How do you know if you don't sit around negotiations?
:58:44. > :58:47.Listen to Jeremy Hunt, he is saying the overall pay envelope for junior
:58:48. > :58:51.doctors will remain broadly the same. How can it possibly be an 11%
:58:52. > :58:56.pay rise? A rise in the basic and they will do
:58:57. > :59:00.less overtime, less hours would count as overtime.
:59:01. > :59:04.It is cogitated as it may be the junior doctors will think this does
:59:05. > :59:08.not take us forward. Don't they owe it to those of us who
:59:09. > :59:13.pay their salaries, the people who use the NHS, to sit down with Mr
:59:14. > :59:18.Hunt and go through it? I think they have tried but the way in which the
:59:19. > :59:20.Health Secretary has handled these negotiations has been absolutely
:59:21. > :59:25.appalling. Take the example of this. On
:59:26. > :59:30.Wednesday, again, 24 hours before the ballot opens, it is the first
:59:31. > :59:34.time that the Health Secretary says that the Care Quality Commission are
:59:35. > :59:39.going to be involved in monitoring the hours of junior doctors. Why
:59:40. > :59:43.didn't we hear that two months ago? Why did we hear that six months ago?
:59:44. > :59:47.This is the Care Quality Commission... If you were a junior
:59:48. > :59:50.doctor, would you vote for strike action?
:59:51. > :59:56.I am not a junior doctor, it is not for me as a politician to sit in a
:59:57. > :59:58.TV studio on a Sunday afternoon and tell junior doctors how they should
:59:59. > :00:10.vote in a ballot. I am not going If they do vote for strike action,
:00:11. > :00:15.will the Labour Party support them? I am not going to prejudge the
:00:16. > :00:19.outcome of the ballot. You have come on and argued the junior doctors'
:00:20. > :00:23.case, with knowledge and some eloquence, so if they vote for
:00:24. > :00:27.strike action, why, given everything you have said, would you not support
:00:28. > :00:32.them? Jeremy Hunt can avoid a strike tomorrow if he avoids the threat of
:00:33. > :00:40.contract imposition. I will ask Jeremy Hunt when I speak to him
:00:41. > :00:43.Would you, if they vote for strike action, will the Labour Party
:00:44. > :00:48.support them? It is a simple question. I will be happy to come
:00:49. > :00:51.back and speak to you in a couple of weeks, but I am not going to
:00:52. > :00:57.prejudge the outcome of a democratic process that is currently under way.
:00:58. > :01:01.The Government in a mess or other junior doctors chancing their arm?
:01:02. > :01:03.It is interesting, it is where is where those two Conservative
:01:04. > :01:08.manifesto commitments made, the seven-day NHS and the other thing,
:01:09. > :01:13.the ?22 billion of efficiency savings in the NHS to meet the 30
:01:14. > :01:17.billion funding gap. What is interesting is if there is pain
:01:18. > :01:21.here, imagine what it will be like in other areas of the public
:01:22. > :01:26.services. The NHS is protected, it has a ring fenced budget that rises
:01:27. > :01:30.in line with inflation. Other areas that are not protected will face
:01:31. > :01:35.cuts of 25%, so this is just an early taste of how difficult things
:01:36. > :01:38.will get next year on the other side of the Spending Review. I want to
:01:39. > :01:41.put something to you that the cheaper the defence staff said to
:01:42. > :01:48.me, not about the NHS, he would be worried if Mr Trident Macca delete
:01:49. > :01:50.Corbin's views on Trident became Labour policy -- Jeremy Corbyn's
:01:51. > :01:56.views on Trident became Labour policy, that he would never press
:01:57. > :01:59.the button. Let's hear what Richard Houghton had to say. The whole thing
:02:00. > :02:06.about deterrence rest on the court Macca delete -- rest on the use If
:02:07. > :02:10.you say you are never going to use it, I say you use it every minute of
:02:11. > :02:15.every day and the purpose of the deterrent is you don't have to use
:02:16. > :02:18.it because you successfully deter. So no point in spending billions and
:02:19. > :02:21.billions if our enemies think we will never use it? Yes, because
:02:22. > :02:26.deterrence is then completely undermined.
:02:27. > :02:29.Isn't that the point, if you have the deterrent, you say you will use
:02:30. > :02:33.it, even if you might not. If you don't have it, you save the money.
:02:34. > :02:38.What is the logic of having it and saying you will not use it? I think
:02:39. > :02:42.Jeremy was probably answering a hypothetical question. He has been
:02:43. > :02:45.clear that the Labour Party is going to have a review of its policy. I am
:02:46. > :02:50.somebody who welcomes that review, to be honest. I understand that but
:02:51. > :02:54.my point is you can have a review and say we won't have the deterrent
:02:55. > :03:00.or we will have the deterrent. What is the logic of saying we will have
:03:01. > :03:06.it but won't use it? As I say, I think Jeremy was answering a
:03:07. > :03:11.hypothetical question. I think it is a difficult question. His views on
:03:12. > :03:15.nuclear weapons are long held. The Labour Party needs to go through
:03:16. > :03:21.this review. We need to decide democratically as a party whether we
:03:22. > :03:25.want to commit to the renewal of Trident. At the point at which that
:03:26. > :03:28.decision is taken, Labour Party members will obviously be
:03:29. > :03:30.deciding... Thank you, you can come back and tell me that.
:03:31. > :03:34.There's no Sunday Politics next week because MPs are taking a break
:03:35. > :03:37.from Westminster - but we'll be back on the 22nd November.
:03:38. > :03:40.Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics -