:00:50. > :01:01.Iain Duncan Smith follows up his resignation with a blistering
:01:02. > :01:03.attack on George Osborne, saying some of the Chancellor's
:01:04. > :01:06.budget measures are deeply unfair and damaging to the country.
:01:07. > :01:10.It's being seen as a direct attack on Chancellor Osborne -
:01:11. > :01:13.are his leadership hopes now holed below the waterline?
:01:14. > :01:16.And with ministers now close to civil war over IDS's resignation,
:01:17. > :01:22.can David Cameron keep the warring factions of his government together?
:01:23. > :01:28.The headlines say a green light for CrossRail 2.
:01:29. > :01:32.But with questions over who pays, is the
:01:33. > :01:42.And with me, as always, the best and the brightest political
:01:43. > :01:45.panel in the business - Nick Watt, Isabel Oakeshott
:01:46. > :01:49.and Janan Ganesh, who'll be tweeting throughout the programme
:01:50. > :01:55.So, George Osborne unveiled a Budget which he hoped
:01:56. > :01:58.would satisfy the Tory faithful generate a feel-good factor
:01:59. > :02:01.in the run up to the EU referendum and enhance his own leadership
:02:02. > :02:07.That strategy started to come off the rails within 24 hours
:02:08. > :02:10.as the Chancellor faced Tory revolts on four fronts.
:02:11. > :02:13.And was blown to smithereens on Friday night when welfare
:02:14. > :02:16.secretary Iain Duncan Smith resigned over savings to disability payments.
:02:17. > :02:19.This morning open warfare is breaking out
:02:20. > :02:30.We'll be devoting the next half hour to this story,
:02:31. > :02:33.with analysis and comment from Nick, Isabel and Janan and interviews
:02:34. > :02:36.with the shadow work and pensions secretary Owen Smith,
:02:37. > :02:39.the Conservative backbencher Heidi Allen, and the head
:02:40. > :02:42.of the Institute for Fiscal Studies Paul Johnson.
:02:43. > :02:45.First, Giles Dilnot reports on the very public falling out
:02:46. > :02:49.at the top of David Cameron's government.
:02:50. > :02:54.When the Chancellor gets badly hurt in an attack from his own side,
:02:55. > :02:57.we shouldn't be surprised where it came
:02:58. > :03:04.Iain Duncan Smith and George Osborne whenever was buddies
:03:05. > :03:08.and they are on the opposite sides of the EU
:03:09. > :03:15.But for nearly six years, they've worked together
:03:16. > :03:17.in government, delivering welfare reform and savings.
:03:18. > :03:20.Last July, when the Chancellor announced the living
:03:21. > :03:25.Those currently on the minimum wage will see that pay rise
:03:26. > :03:33.And whilst in polling, there was popular support
:03:34. > :03:40.for balancing the books and reforming welfare,
:03:41. > :03:43.there was also angry protest, especially from disabled people
:03:44. > :03:44.who passionately believed they had been targeted
:03:45. > :03:49.The deepest wound a Work and Pensions
:03:50. > :03:51.Secretary could inflict on his own governments,
:03:52. > :04:01.On Wednesday we were touted a budget that would be dull,
:04:02. > :04:03.not much wriggle room or rabbits, sugared or otherwise.
:04:04. > :04:06.Nonetheless, the Chancellor and wannabe PM was
:04:07. > :04:10.The richest 1% pay 28% of all income tax revenue,
:04:11. > :04:18.a higher proportion than in any single year
:04:19. > :04:23.Proof that we are all in this together.
:04:24. > :04:26.But not so for many disabled people and enough Tory MPs,
:04:27. > :04:33.On welfare, last week my right honourable friend the Secretary
:04:34. > :04:38.of State for Work and Pensions, set out changes that will ensure
:04:39. > :04:41.that within the rising disability budget, support is better
:04:42. > :04:48.It was a confirmation of changes that just 48 hours later would see
:04:49. > :04:50.a resignation letter from the man the Chancellor was referring to
:04:51. > :04:54.questioning if enough is being done to ensure
:04:55. > :05:01.These were changes to personal independence payments that have
:05:02. > :05:04.replaced disability living allowance, that would make it more
:05:05. > :05:08.likely large numbers of recipients got less money,
:05:09. > :05:19.and in some cases much less, in future.
:05:20. > :05:21.Something he regarded as a compromise too far.
:05:22. > :05:23.According to Mr Duncan Smith, the changes had demanded because too
:05:24. > :05:25.much emphasis on money-saving exercises and that his welfare
:05:26. > :05:27.to work reforms could not be repeatedly
:05:28. > :05:32.By this weekend, the government s unofficial paramedic
:05:33. > :05:34.was dispatched to patch up the internal wounds,
:05:35. > :05:48.Mr Duncan Smith's literary cuts had inflicted.
:05:49. > :05:53.by the whole Cabinet on Wednesday morning before the Chancellor
:05:54. > :05:56.And he was obviously part of that process.
:05:57. > :05:59.These proposals came from his department.
:06:00. > :06:04.And the PM's response to the letter stressed...
:06:05. > :06:07.In the hours after the budget, amid angry
:06:08. > :06:09.rumblings from the backbenches, suddenly the government
:06:10. > :06:11.where describing and announced policy
:06:12. > :06:15.Something that has been put forward, there has been a review,
:06:16. > :06:21.And the suggestion the next day from the PM
:06:22. > :06:25.We are going to discuss what we put forward
:06:26. > :06:28.with the disability charities and others, as the Chancellor said
:06:29. > :06:37.It is important this increase in money
:06:38. > :06:40.goes to the people who need it the most.
:06:41. > :06:41.The problem is, the internal party concerns were that it looked
:06:42. > :06:44.like money was going to those that didn't need it most.
:06:45. > :06:46.The headline rate of capital gains tax currently stands at 28%.
:06:47. > :06:50.I am cutting the capital gains tax paid by basic rate
:06:51. > :06:55.Iain Duncan Smith said the disability
:06:56. > :06:57.reforms couldn't be defended within a budget that benefits
:06:58. > :07:09.I'm told this was the most toxic aspect for a large number
:07:10. > :07:11.who'd considered resignation over this.
:07:12. > :07:14.But not everyone was sorry to see him go.
:07:15. > :07:21.The problems have been at the heart of the DWP.
:07:22. > :07:23.I do not see eye to eye with the Treasury,
:07:24. > :07:28.I'm not the Chancellor's biggest supporter,
:07:29. > :07:31.shall we say, but the reality is, in all the experiences I've had
:07:32. > :07:33.the problems have been with an evangelical point of view,
:07:34. > :07:38.They have consistently failed disabled people
:07:39. > :07:42.As Stephen Crabb takes on work and pensions,
:07:43. > :07:51.But clearly the quiet man reflected if
:07:52. > :07:53.you're going to turn up the volume at all,
:07:54. > :07:55.best rattle the windows of Downing Street.
:07:56. > :07:59.A war of words has now broken out in Iain Duncan Smith's
:08:00. > :08:01.old department, with one junior minister accusing him
:08:02. > :08:04.of "shocking" behaviour, but three other ministers rounding
:08:05. > :08:09.Mr Duncan Smith gave his first post-resignation interview to Andrew
:08:10. > :08:15.Anybody who thinks this is a here today, gone tomorrow
:08:16. > :08:26.I am genuinely frustrated, I have no personal ambitions. If I never go
:08:27. > :08:30.back into government again, I will not cry about that, it is not my
:08:31. > :08:34.ambition. I came into this government, and let me be clear I
:08:35. > :08:41.came into this government because I cared about welfare reform. I spent
:08:42. > :08:44.eight years in social justice trying to figure out why certain
:08:45. > :08:49.communities were so badly off and how could we get them back to work
:08:50. > :08:53.and solve that one. Everything I have done has been driven by my
:08:54. > :08:58.desire to improve the quality of life for the worst. We can debate my
:08:59. > :09:05.policies, but my motivation has always been a bad back. My motive
:09:06. > :09:12.now, I am concerned that I want to succeed and it cannot do the things
:09:13. > :09:14.it should because it is too focused on narrowly getting the deficit down
:09:15. > :09:28.without saying where it should for. Minutes later the energy
:09:29. > :09:31.secretary Amber Rudd, popped up to attack her former
:09:32. > :09:33.cabinet colleague - saying she resents Mr Duncan Smith's
:09:34. > :09:44."high moral tone". I do remain perplexed. It indicated
:09:45. > :09:49.he was making progress. He wrote a letter on Thursday night saying what
:09:50. > :09:56.he was doing and why we should support it. So I don't understand. I
:09:57. > :10:01.do remain perplexed about it, but I am disappointed. This is an man I
:10:02. > :10:06.sat a cabinet with for nearly a year. He was a cabinet minister for
:10:07. > :10:12.nearly six years. I do respect him, so to suddenly launch a bombshell on
:10:13. > :10:21.the rest of us in a way that is difficult for us all to understand,
:10:22. > :10:31.is disappointing. It is the Tory party now in open welfare and it is
:10:32. > :10:35.not easily quelled? If Amber Rudd is perplexed, it is a dereliction of
:10:36. > :10:39.duty on her part to understand what has been going on in her own
:10:40. > :10:42.Administration. In a way, there is nothing sudden about this for Iain
:10:43. > :10:49.Duncan Smith, it has been brewing for a long time. She has known that.
:10:50. > :10:53.He has been rustling for a long time whether he can do better, staying
:10:54. > :10:57.where he is and operating within the difficult constraints the Treasury
:10:58. > :11:02.has imposed on him. Or whether he is better off out and saying what he
:11:03. > :11:07.really thinks. That is what tipped him over the edge. The Downing
:11:08. > :11:12.Street strategy is to paint Iain Duncan Smith as a kind of,
:11:13. > :11:16.head-banging Eurosceptic and try to pretend it is all about the EU
:11:17. > :11:18.referendum. I don't think anyone who watched Iain Duncan Smith this
:11:19. > :11:24.morning giving that powerful interview to Andrew Marr, could
:11:25. > :11:29.really doubt that what this is about is Iain Duncan Smith's real desire
:11:30. > :11:38.to do the right thing by the disadvantaged. The rest is just
:11:39. > :11:42.noises off. When you look at some of these clips come he comes out
:11:43. > :11:50.against the welfare cap, to arbitrate. If you are sitting in the
:11:51. > :11:53.Labour Party right now, you will be cutting up that interview and
:11:54. > :12:00.pouring it out at every opportunity. This story will go on and on? I
:12:01. > :12:05.interviewed Iain Duncan Smith about two months after the 2010 election.
:12:06. > :12:10.He said if George Osborne wants me to be a cheese parer and do
:12:11. > :12:14.arbitrate cuts, I will be out. Isabel says commie has been rustling
:12:15. > :12:21.for six years with this. He came into this after the visit to the
:12:22. > :12:25.Easterhouse estate in Glasgow. He had in Europe and championed the
:12:26. > :12:29.vulnerable. He came to it with a mission to try and increase
:12:30. > :12:35.incentives for the low paid to combat to work. To George Osborne,
:12:36. > :12:38.it is the bottom line. But it is not going to go away, you have the
:12:39. > :12:42.extraordinary spectacle of three ministers in his former department,
:12:43. > :12:48.pretty Patel included, putting out statements in support of the Iain
:12:49. > :12:50.Duncan Smith. And you have the pensions minister delivering a
:12:51. > :12:53.Downing Street script saying this is about Europe, even though there is
:12:54. > :12:59.not a word about Europe in Iain Duncan Smith's statement. Ross
:13:00. > :13:02.Altman, who was unhappy with Downing Street and the Treasury on the
:13:03. > :13:06.pension changes coming out and delivering what Downing Street one.
:13:07. > :13:10.It is a mess and it shows the normal discipline you would expect in
:13:11. > :13:18.government really is a challenge but the referendum. It is over the
:13:19. > :13:22.George Osborne? If wasn't on the budget. Tax credits last summer
:13:23. > :13:27.reversal on pension reforms this year. And now this, you cannot
:13:28. > :13:30.deliver but on Wednesday which is just a proposition by Thursday
:13:31. > :13:32.evening and by Friday evening provokes a senior Cabinet colleagues
:13:33. > :13:48.resignation. It is bad for him. The government should be able to
:13:49. > :13:56.stun them month after a general election Monday, ... And start with
:13:57. > :14:00.them all going in different ways during the referendum, it could get
:14:01. > :14:04.worse. They need this referendum out of the way as quickly as possible.
:14:05. > :14:09.They need a comfortable victory by would suggest, with the remaining
:14:10. > :14:16.side, David Cameron's side to have any chance of putting a look on
:14:17. > :14:20.this. In four years' time, at a general election will determine
:14:21. > :14:25.George Osborne's leadership chances? Quite possibly. I don't know how the
:14:26. > :14:29.Chancellor will put this back together again if you EU referendum
:14:30. > :14:34.campaign. It might not just be a Osborne's future on the line, it
:14:35. > :14:38.could be the Prime Minister's the Chancellor's fate if tied to the
:14:39. > :14:42.Prime Minister. They are the project, they have worked together
:14:43. > :14:47.to make the Conservatives electable again. It George Osborne goes down,
:14:48. > :14:51.David Cameron's position is in doubt. I am not suggesting we care
:14:52. > :14:56.at this point, the it is destabilising.
:14:57. > :15:02.And don't forget Cameron has never been master of these events. As
:15:03. > :15:05.ever, he ain't controlling it. As we know, these things have a life of
:15:06. > :15:13.their own, so it should keep us busy.
:15:14. > :15:15.Iain Duncan Smith's resignation has been simmering for some time
:15:16. > :15:18.but it was triggered by plans to make cuts to disability benefits
:15:19. > :15:23.A few days before George Osborne's budget, the government previewed
:15:24. > :15:28.plans to change the way claimants were assessed for certain disability
:15:29. > :15:32.benefits, saving ?1.3 billion a year. The office of budgetary
:15:33. > :15:40.responsibility said the changes to the personal independence payments,
:15:41. > :15:45.or Pips, would adversely affect 370,000 people by 2020. The amount
:15:46. > :15:56.of Paire pick a person receives is decided by awarding points based on
:15:57. > :15:58.need -- the amount of PIP. Grab rails, personal toilet seats,
:15:59. > :16:02.arguing people would audit have these items. Iain Duncan Smith
:16:03. > :16:10.resigned, saying the changes were not responsible. Replying to the
:16:11. > :16:13.resignation, the Prime Minister said it had now been agreed not to
:16:14. > :16:18.proceed with the policies in their current form. But that wasn't the
:16:19. > :16:21.only major criticism levelled at George Osborne's budget. The
:16:22. > :16:26.Chancellor confirmed he will miss Fiorentina of his three fiscal
:16:27. > :16:32.rules. Next financial year, welfare bill cost almost ?120 billion, well
:16:33. > :16:37.over the cap of ?115 billion, which he introduced himself to restrict
:16:38. > :16:40.overall welfare spending. And he also broke his debt rule, which
:16:41. > :16:45.promised that national debt would decline every year as a proportion
:16:46. > :16:53.of national income. This financial year, total debt is expected to be
:16:54. > :16:56.83.7% of GDP, up from 83.3% in 2014-15.
:16:57. > :16:59.We did ask the Government for an interview about the disability
:17:00. > :17:02.But we were told no one was available.
:17:03. > :17:04.It's a familiar refrain these days, especially when the government
:17:05. > :17:09.I'm joined now by the head of the Institute for
:17:10. > :17:18.Welcome to the programme. It looks like the government is making a
:17:19. > :17:24.U-turn on these cuts to disability payments, how big a haul does that
:17:25. > :17:29.blow in the Chancellor's efforts to get a budget surplus by 2020? The
:17:30. > :17:33.truth is we are talking very small numbers in the context of ?800
:17:34. > :17:37.billion a year or so of spending. The Chancellor is aiming for nearly
:17:38. > :17:41.a billion pound surplus, he doesn't get this, it takes just down to
:17:42. > :17:47.under ten, so in that sense it doesn't matter all that much to his
:17:48. > :17:51.target the 2020. But he has already inked in 3.5 billion of unspecified
:17:52. > :17:54.cuts, we don't know what they would be to get this surplus, but there
:17:55. > :17:58.are about eight or 9 billion of watch some might call
:17:59. > :18:02.jiggery-pokery, cuts to public investment in the final year, and
:18:03. > :18:13.now this. It must make it more difficult for them. There are all
:18:14. > :18:17.sorts of things in the budget aimed at that particular year. Numbers are
:18:18. > :18:21.being moved around and there are some unspecified spending cuts. It
:18:22. > :18:26.is important to see this in the broader context. Unless something
:18:27. > :18:32.awful happens, we will get close to a budget balance in 2019-20, which
:18:33. > :18:36.given that we were over 150 billion in deficit in 2010, the biggest
:18:37. > :18:40.deficit in his time that we have had, to get from their too close to
:18:41. > :18:46.surplus will be quite an achievement. Economically and
:18:47. > :18:50.politically understand it matters enormously, but economically, the
:18:51. > :18:52.difference between a ?10 billion surplus and the deficit is almost
:18:53. > :19:01.hear the dash-mac when neither here nor there.
:19:02. > :19:07.The Treasury would expect that department to find ?1.3 billion
:19:08. > :19:14.elsewhere, is that right? Not necessarily, this is unlike the
:19:15. > :19:17.health budget or the education budget, it is determined by the
:19:18. > :19:24.demands on the budget. So I think if they don't put these changes in the
:19:25. > :19:28.presumption will be at least that the spending will still be in the
:19:29. > :19:33.budget. The day after the budget, you said the Chancellor had only a
:19:34. > :19:39.50-50 chance of filling his surplus in 2020. Would you like to
:19:40. > :19:43.recalibrate these odds? It is a relatively small change in the
:19:44. > :19:49.context of where we are, still a 50-50 shot. The thing that will
:19:50. > :19:52.determine it is much less changes of this kind and parsley more what
:19:53. > :19:57.happens to the economy, whether the economy does better or worse than
:19:58. > :20:00.currently expected. In many ways, the most important thing we learned
:20:01. > :20:05.on Wednesday is that the O BR has much less optimistic about the
:20:06. > :20:11.economy, and therefore we will all be worse off than we thought we were
:20:12. > :20:16.going to be. The Treasury, as Iain Duncan Smith has been saying, has
:20:17. > :20:20.been clawing away at working age benefits the years, for him this was
:20:21. > :20:27.the final straw. But isn't that inevitable, if you have a government
:20:28. > :20:31.who ring fences pensions and the NHS, the only big travel figure
:20:32. > :20:35.spending line is welfare? If you are looking, like the government has
:20:36. > :20:39.been common to really dramatically reduce the deficit significantly,
:20:40. > :20:44.you are not going to avoid doing things on the welfare side. Much
:20:45. > :20:48.more than ?100 billion was spent on just working age welfare, covered by
:20:49. > :20:53.that welfare cap, which is far more than we spend on almost anything
:20:54. > :21:00.else, apart from health service and pensions. But the Chancellor has
:21:01. > :21:05.created this fiscal position. Even though it was weaker, he cut
:21:06. > :21:09.business rates, he cut corporation tax, capital gains tax, he raised
:21:10. > :21:14.the personal allowance, and he raised 40p income tax threshold He
:21:15. > :21:18.didn't have to do any of that. Even if he had done only some of that, he
:21:19. > :21:22.would not have had to look for these cuts in disability for study has
:21:23. > :21:25.made that himself will stop you are right, she didn't have to make any
:21:26. > :21:29.of those changes, but it was very clearly in the Conservative
:21:30. > :21:33.manifesto to increase the personal allowance. So presuming that he
:21:34. > :21:36.would have kept the manifesto changes, he would have had to have
:21:37. > :21:40.done that, and has to do quite a lot more route. Cutting those taxes
:21:41. > :21:47.clearly means you have to do some other things to maintain his target.
:21:48. > :21:51.But he didn't have to do them. Also, perhaps his leadership tensions did
:21:52. > :21:54.play a part. There were two major areas where they could have raised a
:21:55. > :22:00.lot of money, pension reform, by taking away the top tax-free, which
:22:01. > :22:04.could have saved billions, and raising the fuel duty. If you don't
:22:05. > :22:08.visit now, when will you? Both could have raised billions and he chose
:22:09. > :22:13.not to do it. Those are two very different kinds of things. Yes, you
:22:14. > :22:18.are right, it is astonishing with petrol prices at their lowest level
:22:19. > :22:22.for a very long time, chatty on petrol at its lowest level since the
:22:23. > :22:26.mid-19 90s, the cost of driving a car at its lowest level for perhaps
:22:27. > :22:29.30 years. If you can't increase fuel duties even then, that is a
:22:30. > :22:33.long-term problem for the Treasury, because it brings in a lot of money,
:22:34. > :22:38.?30 billion a year, and if that goes it is a real problem. On pension tax
:22:39. > :22:42.will if it is a much more complex issue. There are good economic
:22:43. > :22:46.arguments, for maintaining it as we have at the moment, and had you got
:22:47. > :22:51.rid of that 40% relief, you would have hit the 5 million or so people
:22:52. > :22:56.who pay 40% tax, it would have been another slice of the population
:22:57. > :23:03.rather unhappy. The national debt, not the deficit, will be 1.7 4
:23:04. > :23:09.trillion by 20 20. If the government was then to run a surplus of say 10
:23:10. > :23:12.billion a year for ten years, which would be unprecedented in British
:23:13. > :23:19.government, after a decade, the debt would still, by my simple rhythmic
:23:20. > :23:26.calculation, the ?1.64 trillion Is that what you mean by economically
:23:27. > :23:30.irrelevant in running a surplus The key point about the size of the debt
:23:31. > :23:39.is it is size as a fraction of national income. More important than
:23:40. > :23:43.the absolute level. As the -- even running a surplus of 10 billion or
:23:44. > :23:49.so a year, you don't get too prerecession levels of debt until
:23:50. > :23:52.the mid 2030s. The argument the Chancellor would make the running a
:23:53. > :24:04.surplus year after year is that even if you just run a balanced budget,
:24:05. > :24:10.it takes quite a lot of time just to undo the damage that the crisis did.
:24:11. > :24:12.Joining me now from Glasgow is the Shadow Work and Pensions
:24:13. > :24:24.Owen Smith, in his resignation letter, Iain Duncan Smith says it is
:24:25. > :24:28.now time to look at ending the protection of pensions. Do you agree
:24:29. > :24:33.with that? I don't think that should be the first thing they look at at
:24:34. > :24:36.all, Andrew. I think the very clear message that Iain Duncan Smith
:24:37. > :24:40.himself has delivered is their word choices that could have been made in
:24:41. > :24:43.the budget, and the Chancellor made them and he made the wrong ones
:24:44. > :24:48.coming chose to cut the benefits from disabled people. As we have
:24:49. > :24:52.heard, the PIP cuts taking many thousands of pounds away from the
:24:53. > :24:58.370,000 people, and instead he chose that he was going to cut corporation
:24:59. > :25:03.tax, which he -- is going to benefit large countries in this country and
:25:04. > :25:06.he chose to cut capital gains tax, which were largely benefit people
:25:07. > :25:09.who have got a bit of money. So I think there were different changes
:25:10. > :25:16.he could have made even within the terms of this budget that would have
:25:17. > :25:21.been much fairer. I understand that, but which are nevertheless have
:25:22. > :25:30.thinks it the benefits? -- ring fenced? We need to look at all these
:25:31. > :25:35.things long-term, but it would be for a Labour government when we get
:25:36. > :25:39.closer to the next election to the absolute specifics on all of those
:25:40. > :25:43.pension benefits, but by and large, let's be clear. The last Labour
:25:44. > :25:48.government worked incredibly hard to raise pensioners out of poverty We
:25:49. > :25:51.were incredibly successful in that regard, a million pensioners lifted
:25:52. > :25:54.out of poverty under the last Labour government and I don't think they
:25:55. > :25:58.ought to be the target for cuts just as I don't believe that
:25:59. > :26:02.disabled people ought to be. There are myriad other choices the
:26:03. > :26:06.government could have taken. Iain Duncan Smith today I think has been
:26:07. > :26:09.very honest in explaining how George Osborne could have taken different
:26:10. > :26:15.choices, should have done, and in his words he is dividing Britain,
:26:16. > :26:26.moving away from any notion of us all being in it together. But you
:26:27. > :26:31.are committed to balancing current spending, but if you have ring
:26:32. > :26:35.fenced pensions, as you have told us this morning, presumably you would
:26:36. > :26:39.ring fence the NHS, or even add to spending in the NHS, and you want to
:26:40. > :26:46.ring fence nearly all of welfare as well. Where do the cuts come from
:26:47. > :26:51.the balance current spending? I have just given you two, let's be very
:26:52. > :26:56.specific, Labour would be saying today if it were our budget, that we
:26:57. > :27:01.would not have done the cuts to corporation tax, that would have
:27:02. > :27:04.given us in year ?600 million, and we would not have done the cut to
:27:05. > :27:11.capital gains tax, that would give us another ?600 million. That nets
:27:12. > :27:16.off the PIP cuts annually, the 1.2 billion, and there are other similar
:27:17. > :27:20.choices we could look at. We would not have taken corporation tax back
:27:21. > :27:24.to 19%. We would have been taking far more from large multinational
:27:25. > :27:28.companies than this government is. So far you have given me 1.2
:27:29. > :27:33.billion, but you have announced much more than that in spending plans. So
:27:34. > :27:38.I am not quite clear how it is you would balance current spending,
:27:39. > :27:44.because I think we can both agree an extra 1.2 billion went to do it
:27:45. > :27:49.will it? No, but a corporation tax alone by 2020 would be giving us
:27:50. > :27:56.?2.5 billion, if we were to revert back to the April 2015 rate of 0%.
:27:57. > :28:00.We would still have a corporation tax in this country that was 10
:28:01. > :28:04.lower than Germany, 15% lower than America, 10% lower than Australia.
:28:05. > :28:10.It would be an extremely competitive rate of tax. I just highlight that
:28:11. > :28:14.?1 billion example, ?3 billion example, how we would make different
:28:15. > :28:20.choices. Right, but as I say, in many of your spending plans you have
:28:21. > :28:23.already spent that sort of money. You also talk about fair taxes, you
:28:24. > :28:29.would not cut the corporation tax any further, what else to you mean
:28:30. > :28:36.by fair taxes? What would you raise by fair taxes? As I said a minute
:28:37. > :28:41.ago, we can't for years out from a budget before, a pre-election budget
:28:42. > :28:45.from Labour, tell you precisely what all of our spending plans will be, I
:28:46. > :28:48.don't think that is a reasonable thing to ask any opposition
:28:49. > :28:59.government to do but I think we are setting very clear indicators about
:29:00. > :29:06.what we think the benefits would be. Give us another example. It is
:29:07. > :29:09.reflective of our belief that those who have the largest amounts of
:29:10. > :29:18.money ought to bear the largest burden in our society. It is unclear
:29:19. > :29:23.whether that raises you very much. The government's own analysis showed
:29:24. > :29:26.there was ?3 billion forgone in cutting that top rate of tax. I now
:29:27. > :29:33.see they are trying to argue they have somehow applied a famous curve
:29:34. > :29:37.and ?8 billion they have made. I think corporation tax shows you very
:29:38. > :29:43.clearly, corporation tax receipts have been flat, they have managed to
:29:44. > :29:49.cut from 28% to 20% in the last six years, and the amount of receipts we
:29:50. > :29:50.are getting in has gone from 43 billion to 43 billion. Investment
:29:51. > :30:00.has decreased. What are used to call sickness
:30:01. > :30:05.benefit comes to over 50 billion pounds a year. You would leave it
:30:06. > :30:10.untouched? No, we want to reform the system. Take for example, Iain
:30:11. > :30:15.Duncan Smith made a lot about universal credit this morning. He
:30:16. > :30:22.has said George Osborne has stripped out the guts of universal credit. I
:30:23. > :30:25.was asking about disability? Some people who are disabled will be in
:30:26. > :30:31.receipt of universal credit. What would you do about the disability 50
:30:32. > :30:39.billion pounds annual budget? We wouldn't be making the changes the
:30:40. > :30:42.current government are proposing. They are lying to the British public
:30:43. > :30:52.about this, spending on the disabled is increasing. If you take all
:30:53. > :30:56.disability benefits, I am publishing figures today that say it has
:30:57. > :31:03.declined around 60% that the government have already cut disabled
:31:04. > :31:07.benefits. -- 6%. That will not be my target. Would you keep this increase
:31:08. > :31:13.in the threshold for people who enter the 40% tax bracket? Yes, we
:31:14. > :31:18.would keep that. It is fair to say the fiscal drag of people being
:31:19. > :31:24.pulled into the 40p rate has been increasing. I think we will need to
:31:25. > :31:28.reform taxation much more fundamentally. I still think the key
:31:29. > :31:33.thing today is we have got to understand George Osborne is the man
:31:34. > :31:36.in the dock. I am going to have to stop you there. We look forward to
:31:37. > :31:44.talking to you in the future about your plans for tax reform. Now let's
:31:45. > :31:51.go to the Conservative MP who has spearheaded the back bench
:31:52. > :31:58.opposition to George Osborne's tax cuts. Was a Iain Duncan Smith right
:31:59. > :32:03.to resign? He was coming he had reached a point where he had had
:32:04. > :32:07.enough of the purse strings being pulled so he couldn't deliver the
:32:08. > :32:15.welfare reform he wanted to. He had no option. Mr Cameron says he is
:32:16. > :32:18.puzzled by the resignation and the position of the government on these
:32:19. > :32:22.welfare reforms and cuts had been collectively agreed. I am learning,
:32:23. > :32:28.I am still a relatively new MP. You I am still a relatively new MP. You
:32:29. > :32:30.can keep your powder dry for I am still a relatively new MP. You
:32:31. > :32:36.long, you are convinced by the whips that this is the right thing to do.
:32:37. > :32:40.Your conscience will kick in, it did for me last year over tax credits.
:32:41. > :32:44.The rumblings are more open this year than they were last year over
:32:45. > :32:49.tax credits. Iain Duncan Smith looked around him and saw many MP is
:32:50. > :32:53.saying how unhappy they were and he couldn't proceed any longer. Would
:32:54. > :32:57.you have been one of the rebels if the government had proceeded with
:32:58. > :33:04.what was in the budget for the disability payments? Absolutely I
:33:05. > :33:08.would have been. Iain Duncan Smith, perhaps under Treasury pressure over
:33:09. > :33:14.the years has presided over a number of cuts to welfare. Now he is
:33:15. > :33:21.resigning over a cut that isn't going to happen, as far as we can
:33:22. > :33:25.make out. What is the logic in that? The first thing to say, I cannot say
:33:26. > :33:29.the certain it wouldn't have happened. I have had no letter or
:33:30. > :33:33.e-mail coming from the Treasury saying we will be looking at it
:33:34. > :33:41.again. A lot of what has been cut from Iain Duncan Smith's point of
:33:42. > :33:49.view, so the tax credit taper rate, universal taper rate, PIP, it has
:33:50. > :33:53.been coming thick and fast. He has had to deliver what it was
:33:54. > :33:57.revolutionary welfare reforms. He wanted to do them the right way
:33:58. > :34:04.Everything I talked about in my maiden speech about doing it gently
:34:05. > :34:07.and allowing the minimum wage to rise. The Treasury whole the purse
:34:08. > :34:12.strings and they stopped him delivering the policies the way he
:34:13. > :34:16.wanted to. Given what happened to tax credits, which was a move to
:34:17. > :34:21.take away some welfare benefits from the working poor, is it not puzzling
:34:22. > :34:27.the Chancellor then moved in to an even more difficult group to deal
:34:28. > :34:31.with, in terms of taking things away, into the disabled and seem to
:34:32. > :34:41.have learned nothing from the tax credit U turn? I guess we will see
:34:42. > :34:47.in the days and weeks to come. It is not just PIP, you will remember the
:34:48. > :34:52.extra payment given to claimants who had been ill for a long time and
:34:53. > :34:55.were returning to work. I voted against that also. I hope Stephen
:34:56. > :34:58.Crabb, the new Secretary of State will have a conversation with the
:34:59. > :35:02.Treasury and this will be brought to the table. We have made some poor
:35:03. > :35:06.decisions. Some of the areas of taxation we have opted for instead,
:35:07. > :35:11.are wrong. It doesn't send the right message that as a Conservative Party
:35:12. > :35:15.we can look after everybody in society. It is only the
:35:16. > :35:20.Conservatives who can, because we do need the strong economy to deliver
:35:21. > :35:26.any of this. But it has got to come back to the table and we have got to
:35:27. > :35:28.start again. Is it your view it wouldn't be enough just to tinker
:35:29. > :35:31.with what the government was planning to do with the personal
:35:32. > :35:38.mobility independent payments and do what it did with tax credits, which
:35:39. > :35:46.was to scrap what it was planning to do and start again? I have spoken to
:35:47. > :35:52.a lot of disability charities. I am putting myself through and Mark PIP
:35:53. > :35:57.assessment because I want to feel what it is like. It just doesn't
:35:58. > :36:01.work that so many groups of ill and disabled people. Tinkering with two
:36:02. > :36:07.tiny point isn't good enough. We need to look at the whole process
:36:08. > :36:11.and start from scratch and work with these charities, who understand the
:36:12. > :36:16.pressures put on these people so we have a system that works for them.
:36:17. > :36:20.Your party is in open warfare this morning, you have a resignation and
:36:21. > :36:26.people are referring to you as the nasty party. How big a crisis is
:36:27. > :36:33.this for the Conservatives? I have been thinking about this this
:36:34. > :36:39.morning. I am trying to keep my own wooden spoon in my kitchen drawer. I
:36:40. > :36:45.think, in a funny sort of way, because there has been so much focus
:36:46. > :36:48.on the EU, this might lead the sense check we need. All MPs are good
:36:49. > :36:54.people trying to do the best they can. This could be the slap to the
:36:55. > :36:58.face we all need that says hang on, get back together and sort ourselves
:36:59. > :37:01.out. We are the party that should be looking after people. In fact, I
:37:02. > :37:09.think it could bring us together. If you are to be brought together for a
:37:10. > :37:12.fresh start from tax credit to disability payments, is George
:37:13. > :37:18.Osborne still the right Chancellor to do it? It depends how he responds
:37:19. > :37:29.to the challenge. I am hoping so. The jury is still out? Yes. Are his
:37:30. > :37:35.chances to be Prime Minister below the water line? Sometimes the
:37:36. > :37:40.strength of a man is how he picks himself up from a fall. So let's see
:37:41. > :37:43.how he responds. If this is attempted to be brushed under the
:37:44. > :37:48.carpet, I think his chances are over. If he lets himself up and
:37:49. > :37:51.shows he is listening, making mistakes is OK, providing you
:37:52. > :37:57.correct them before they affect people. He did that with tax
:37:58. > :38:01.credits. Some ways it was a big thing because it would have affected
:38:02. > :38:07.millions and millions of people But we need to wait and see what he is
:38:08. > :38:09.going to do with this. Your wooden spoon is always welcome on this
:38:10. > :38:15.programme. It's just gone 11.35,
:38:16. > :38:18.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:38:19. > :38:20.in Scotland who leave us now First, though, the Sunday
:38:21. > :38:33.Politics where you are. A green light for the Crossrail to
:38:34. > :38:48.project. Joining me for the duration
:38:49. > :38:52.of the show - Conservative MP for Putney and Secretary of State
:38:53. > :38:56.for International Development Justine Greening and her
:38:57. > :38:59.Labour Shadow and MP for Hackney North and Stoke
:39:00. > :39:02.Newington, Diane Abbott. It won't have slipped
:39:03. > :39:08.the Chancellor's mind when drawing up his budget for this year,
:39:09. > :39:12.that the capital has an election for Mayor in less than 50
:39:13. > :39:14.days from now. Keeping the capital sweet,
:39:15. > :39:18.or at the very least not overly angry with the Conservative
:39:19. > :39:28.government, would seem This week gave George Osborne under
:39:29. > :39:40.the budget and another opportunity to pose with the hard hat. He would
:39:41. > :39:50.like this to be applied to Crossrail two. It didn't stop him getting a
:39:51. > :39:55.good gag out of it. The government delivering Crossrail one will now
:39:56. > :39:57.commission Crossrail two. I know this commitment to Crossrail two
:39:58. > :40:03.will be welcomed by the leader opposition, the writer Honourable
:40:04. > :40:06.member for Islington. It could have been designed just for him because
:40:07. > :40:11.it is good for those living in north London and are heading south. There
:40:12. > :40:17.was also plans to give the London mayor more money in the form of
:40:18. > :40:21.business rates. It will help make up the cut to the Transport for London
:40:22. > :40:25.budget announced last year. That it means the mayor can spend it on
:40:26. > :40:30.anything, not just transport. What we are going to see is a significant
:40:31. > :40:36.shift. City Hall, they have wanted for a long time. Now I think it will
:40:37. > :40:40.mean Transport for London has to do far more of what the next mayor and
:40:41. > :40:44.their deputies one that has been directly true in the past. Transport
:40:45. > :40:51.for London are said to have opposed the change. Obviously, they're
:40:52. > :40:58.concerned that a future mayor would spend some of those funds towards
:40:59. > :41:05.non-transport things. I would advise against that. But one area the
:41:06. > :41:10.budget didn't have much on, is the topic that has been dominating so
:41:11. > :41:14.far, housing. It might be that the future mayor thinks that is the best
:41:15. > :41:20.way to spend our money than on transport. Can you claim a green
:41:21. > :41:24.light the Crossrail when the government is committed to spending
:41:25. > :41:29.1% less than the total budget? I think the Chancellor set out another
:41:30. > :41:34.big step forward in the plan to get Crossrail two done. We are seeing
:41:35. > :41:41.Crossrail one being finished. After many, many years. And pushed forward
:41:42. > :41:45.and completed under a Conservative led government. We are releasing the
:41:46. > :41:51.money that is needed to take those details to the next step so it can
:41:52. > :41:58.reach the full investment decision. ?80 million out of a price tag of 27
:41:59. > :42:03.billion pounds is a drop in the ocean. 18 million is what we needed
:42:04. > :42:08.to do the next stage of planning work so to understand what this
:42:09. > :42:15.project will cost in totality. It is good news. -- 80 million. People can
:42:16. > :42:17.try and throw stones at it, but the reality is, what the Chancellor
:42:18. > :42:21.announced is another big step forward on the next major
:42:22. > :42:25.infrastructure plan the London, which is very welcome for many
:42:26. > :42:31.people watching this programme. Is it a priority for you, Crossrail
:42:32. > :42:37.two? It is a priority for London, but it is not a big step step
:42:38. > :42:41.forward. He has stopped short of scrapping Crossrail two, which is a
:42:42. > :42:45.good thing. Jeremy Corbyn said it shouldn't go ahead before
:42:46. > :42:50.improvements to railways in the north of England. Siddique Khan
:42:51. > :42:56.Labour's candidate for mayor has said Crossrail is vital for future
:42:57. > :43:02.prosperity and we need to get it built as possible and Jeremy Corbyn
:43:03. > :43:06.should know that. Who is right? Jeremy has said it might have been
:43:07. > :43:08.better if we had gone ahead with those planned Northern Rail
:43:09. > :43:13.improvements before this announcement with Crossrail two But
:43:14. > :43:19.Jeremy and Siddique know it is not either or. We need to be investing
:43:20. > :43:25.in transport infrastructure. Where would you find the rest of the
:43:26. > :43:31.money? Crossrail one was funded partly by TfL, partly by the private
:43:32. > :43:39.sector. We have to look at how those two funding streams can happen in
:43:40. > :43:46.the future. What about the fair pay? It was originally called the Chelsea
:43:47. > :43:51.Hackney line and it would be great for people from Chelsea be able to
:43:52. > :43:57.move to Hackney and see what a wonderful world we have. Can you
:43:58. > :44:00.justify spending billions on a jazzy new railway line from Chelsea,
:44:01. > :44:05.rather than on international development? It is doing much more
:44:06. > :44:10.than linking Hackney to Chelsea It is going under the river to link up
:44:11. > :44:16.Wimbledon and all of those suburban lines that connect into Wimbledon,
:44:17. > :44:20.it is a more strategic North, South line. If you think what Crossrail
:44:21. > :44:27.one has done, it has been East, West. This is going north to south.
:44:28. > :44:31.We shouldn't forget how much investment has gone in on the rest
:44:32. > :44:37.of London's transport system. So for my constituents in Putney, getting
:44:38. > :44:42.on new, longer air-conditioned district line tubes, finally seeing
:44:43. > :44:46.extra carriages been put onto South West trains, finally seeing, after
:44:47. > :44:51.years, Waterloo Station being refitted so more commuter lines can
:44:52. > :44:56.go in. It is not just Crossrail two, it is other investment on transport.
:44:57. > :45:02.But it still comes down to how it will be funded and you want money
:45:03. > :45:07.out of the private sector. It took a very long time the Crossrail one to
:45:08. > :45:12.beat completed. It was one of the first stories I cover 25 years ago.
:45:13. > :45:21.But Siddique Khan thing Crossrail two is less likely to happen, surely
:45:22. > :45:29.I'm sorry I made that joke about going from Hackney to Chelsea. It
:45:30. > :45:34.always gets me into trouble. It is ready important for regeneration,
:45:35. > :45:39.drops and for the economy nationally. Is that too much focus
:45:40. > :45:47.on transport at the expense of housing, because there wasn't much
:45:48. > :45:53.on housing in the budget. It is not either or. What we need to realise
:45:54. > :45:56.is that all of these things, whether it is investing in housing, schools
:45:57. > :46:01.or transport and jobs, they all go together. What we are building is
:46:02. > :46:10.communities at the end of the day. If you look at the Crossrail to
:46:11. > :46:15.project -- Crossrail two project,... So the transport has to come before
:46:16. > :46:18.the housing, is that what you are saying? Zack is saying a really
:46:19. > :46:25.sensible point, you need to have a full plan in place. The plans for
:46:26. > :46:28.transport, other community services, in place, so that when people are
:46:29. > :46:33.moving in and homes are built, everything is there they will need.
:46:34. > :46:36.People will say housing is more critical, even Boris Johnson who I
:46:37. > :46:41.have spoken to recently has said it has moved from transport to housing.
:46:42. > :46:53.Is he right? Absolutely right, and that is why the Tories will lose
:46:54. > :46:56.this mayoral election. One place in which TfL and housing overlap, TfL
:46:57. > :47:01.are one of the biggest landowners in London, land which they are no
:47:02. > :47:05.longer using. Under a Labour mayor, that land would be used for housing,
:47:06. > :47:11.people can actually afford to live in, not luxury. I disagree with that
:47:12. > :47:15.entirely actually. What I will resist is talking about just how few
:47:16. > :47:20.homes labour built in the city, because in the end the only way we
:47:21. > :47:24.are going to fix this housing crisis is by having a common plan that is
:47:25. > :47:29.cross-party and then working together on it. Part of it is about
:47:30. > :47:34.regenerating our council estate part of it is about women get
:47:35. > :47:39.opportunities on transport investment, seeing what we can do
:47:40. > :47:44.alongside that. It will only really succeed if we can have a long-term
:47:45. > :47:48.plan that is not constantly politicised and we were closer with
:47:49. > :47:53.developers to make sure they can be in a position to properly develop
:47:54. > :47:55.sites. There is no point working against them in the end because
:47:56. > :48:01.actually you will end up with no homes. Housing did not get much of
:48:02. > :48:06.an airing in the budget. One London issue that didn't
:48:07. > :48:09.get much of an airing Before the Chancellor's speech,
:48:10. > :48:13.Tim Donovan caught up with the two main Mayoral candidates and asked
:48:14. > :48:15.them about foreign investors On some developments I've seen
:48:16. > :48:18.in London 80% of the homes, before they have been
:48:19. > :48:21.completed are sold off plan to investors in the
:48:22. > :48:23.Middle East and Asia. One estate agent in London
:48:24. > :48:25.last year marketed 7000 The worst thing that could happen
:48:26. > :48:29.to London is people don't want to come here,
:48:30. > :48:32.they don't want to live here, If that happens,
:48:33. > :48:35.London is sunk. So we need to find a way to harness
:48:36. > :48:38.that appetite to invest in London, To do that, I think
:48:39. > :48:44.we can be very ambitious. Right, Diane Abbott, the thing about
:48:45. > :48:47.foreign investors is they bring certainty and developers like that.
:48:48. > :48:50.Yes, but they drive up prices. London has to stop being a
:48:51. > :48:55.playground for developers. We have to start looking at how we how is
:48:56. > :49:01.ordinary Londoners. I have estates in Dost and, new estates that were
:49:02. > :49:05.sold before a brick had been put on top of another brick, sold off land
:49:06. > :49:09.to investors overseas stock that is not sustainable. That is what has
:49:10. > :49:16.caused to some extent the under community of London, and it has
:49:17. > :49:19.pushed Londoners out. Answer the question that it has happened on
:49:20. > :49:29.your watch. He has said something, Siddique Khan, which he must know is
:49:30. > :49:35.wrong. It stops developers selling overseas fry for first year. Are you
:49:36. > :49:40.saying there has not been an increase in foreign investors buying
:49:41. > :49:44.up a swathe of central London real estate? There have always been
:49:45. > :49:51.foreign investors buying flats. Though, Justine, any Londoners will
:49:52. > :49:53.tell you the amount of foreign investment in London has gone
:49:54. > :49:58.through the roof and it is driving Londoners out of the housing market.
:49:59. > :50:02.But it has surely helped the economy? There has ways been foreign
:50:03. > :50:07.investment in housing, but this is precisely the point was making, we
:50:08. > :50:11.need to increasingly work together. I don't think there is a huge
:50:12. > :50:14.difference between the political parties in London on understanding
:50:15. > :50:17.that we want as many homes as possible that are being built in
:50:18. > :50:21.London to be first of all affordable to Londoners and available to
:50:22. > :50:34.Londoners. How do you do that, if you crack down on foreign buyers, it
:50:35. > :50:38.will mean... If I can make a couple of other points, again what zack is
:50:39. > :50:43.talking about, expanding shared ownership so people in average
:50:44. > :50:49.incomes in the city can afford to buy homes. But also critically
:50:50. > :50:54.helping people who just want to rent being a position on rent to buy so
:50:55. > :50:58.they can steadily shift from renting the buying new homes when they are
:50:59. > :51:06.built. When Justin talks about affordable homes, she means 80% of
:51:07. > :51:12.private market rent. 80% of private rent... What you talking about?
:51:13. > :51:15.Jenner rents that bear some relationship to average wages in
:51:16. > :51:23.London. We have to call the developers's bluff. Like the
:51:24. > :51:26.Scotland Yard site, the old Mount Pleasant site with super luxury
:51:27. > :51:29.residential, we won't build anything, it is a blah. Let's finish
:51:30. > :51:32.at there. Tomorrow, nominations open for those
:51:33. > :51:34.wanting to run for Mayor. Alongside the expected parties,
:51:35. > :51:37.a few of the lesser-known runners and riders might end up
:51:38. > :51:40.on your ballot paper on 5 May. Those wanting to be Mayor will have
:51:41. > :51:43.to stump up ?10,000 and get 10 signatures from residents in each
:51:44. > :51:45.of London's 33 boroughs. I should warn you there
:51:46. > :51:48.is some flash photography The fifth mayoral election
:51:49. > :51:56.is fast approaching. But it will be the first
:51:57. > :51:58.without Ken Livingstone and Boris Is this an opportunity
:51:59. > :52:01.for the smaller parties? All these minor parties
:52:02. > :52:03.offer a wider choice in what is an increasing fragmented
:52:04. > :52:05.democracy in Britain. Go back to the 1950s, we'd have had
:52:06. > :52:08.the Conservative Party, the Labour Party and
:52:09. > :52:09.possibly a liberal, Now, the fragmentation
:52:10. > :52:14.and of course, particularly in the London assembly
:52:15. > :52:16.election, the opportunity because of proportional
:52:17. > :52:17.representation for smaller parties to get elected
:52:18. > :52:20.in a way that wouldn't have been Across the world, candidates
:52:21. > :52:27.and parties outside the mainstream And of course, London's first
:52:28. > :52:32.mayor Ken Livingstone won So what impact might the smaller
:52:33. > :52:47.parties have this year? The political battle for women's
:52:48. > :52:50.equality is an historical one but the women's equality party was
:52:51. > :52:55.founded only last year. This is the first election they are contending.
:52:56. > :52:57.We were formed out of a deep sense of frustration at the last general
:52:58. > :53:02.election that women in this country were being treated as a special
:53:03. > :53:05.interest group, rather than half of the population. If you are a woman
:53:06. > :53:08.living in London, you are statistically more likely when set
:53:09. > :53:11.against the rest of the UK to be out of a job, to be living in poverty
:53:12. > :53:16.and to be in danger on the streets and on the public transport system,
:53:17. > :53:20.and I think that is a number-1 priority for anyone who is serious
:53:21. > :53:24.about running as mayor. From the newcomer to the political veteran.
:53:25. > :53:31.Winston McKenzie ran for mayor as an independent in 2008 and has been a
:53:32. > :53:36.member of seven parties his career. He is a member of the English
:53:37. > :53:42.Democrats, which describes itself as England's version of the Scottish
:53:43. > :53:49.Independence party. I have gained amazing experience, I am a people
:53:50. > :53:55.man, I operate for the people, and the people shall be set free. The
:53:56. > :53:58.English Democrats now stand a great chance of resurrecting themselves,
:53:59. > :54:03.through Winston McKenzie, the champ, the man who has got his faculties
:54:04. > :54:07.together, the community man. In London, the BNP has become some
:54:08. > :54:12.success, coming the second party in Dagenham in 2006, and this man,
:54:13. > :54:18.Richard Barbra, winning a seat on the London assembly in 2014. But
:54:19. > :54:24.Nick Griffiths resigned and Electoral Commission was deselected
:54:25. > :54:29.IS deregistered for failing to pay its fees and then re-registered The
:54:30. > :54:33.number one priority is to get our message across, but above all we
:54:34. > :54:38.want to have a hawk on immigration, a moratorium on immigration, because
:54:39. > :54:43.it underpins a lot of the problems that London has been having. Severe
:54:44. > :54:49.shortage of housing, congestion pollution, the NHS and the school
:54:50. > :54:54.places. The other candidates don't acknowledge this but we do. So will
:54:55. > :54:58.these parties on their own have any impact on the mayoral race, and will
:54:59. > :55:06.their aggregated support have any impact on the final selection? The
:55:07. > :55:10.final standings will be announced on 1st of April. Just Dean Greening,
:55:11. > :55:14.will be smaller parties have any real impact on this race? It remains
:55:15. > :55:21.to be seen, but I am interested to see there is a women's equality
:55:22. > :55:24.party, certainly in my role improving the prospects of girls and
:55:25. > :55:26.women is at the heart of our international developer and
:55:27. > :55:29.strategy, and I think it really does matter that more women get involved
:55:30. > :55:33.in politics here in the UK, and I'm very supportive of women running for
:55:34. > :55:38.office. I think should see that more often. You think it will raise the
:55:39. > :55:41.profile of those issues? Well the party get your second preference
:55:42. > :55:48.votes? LAUGHTER You can tell ask you can be honest.
:55:49. > :55:53.With that party get your second preference vote? I very much
:55:54. > :55:56.sympathise with the aims of the women's equality party and it is a
:55:57. > :55:59.shame that we are still having to fight the these issues now, but I
:56:00. > :56:04.have always thought of them inside the Labour Party and I will continue
:56:05. > :56:07.to do so. Last time I second preference was the Greens and that
:56:08. > :56:11.will probably be the same this time. The plurality of parties, is that a
:56:12. > :56:15.good thing, doesn't mean there is dwindling support for the two main
:56:16. > :56:19.parties? I don't know that dwindling so much, I don't think these parties
:56:20. > :56:23.you have had on your film will have much impact, a lot of what would
:56:24. > :56:31.have been BNP support went to Ukip anyway. Does the re-emergence of the
:56:32. > :56:36.BNP speak for a re-emergence of the white working underclass in London?
:56:37. > :56:40.They are saying immigration is behind all of London problems, no,
:56:41. > :56:45.immigration has made London a great city and most Londoners know that.
:56:46. > :56:51.What would Zac Goldsmith do for women in London? I think he will
:56:52. > :56:54.tackle a lot of the issues Sophie mentioned, around crime and
:56:55. > :57:00.particularly violent crime, which is something certainly that bothers me
:57:01. > :57:02.as a woman, as well as a local MP. Just more broadly, General
:57:03. > :57:07.quality-of-life issues frankly are things that matter in my own
:57:08. > :57:13.constituency of Putney. We have someone for open spaces, and I think
:57:14. > :57:17.Zac will do a great job as mayor detecting that aspect of Londoners's
:57:18. > :57:20.lives. It is not something that has been centrestage politically but I
:57:21. > :57:24.think it really does matter. It is important to keep London's economy
:57:25. > :57:27.going, too invest in its infrastructure and schools for
:57:28. > :57:30.example, but at the end of the day people's environment when they come
:57:31. > :57:35.out of the door really matters to them, and I think Zac will do a fab
:57:36. > :57:38.job of taking care of that. You say you have these issues in the Labour
:57:39. > :57:45.Party, does Jeremy Corbyn do enough in the cause of permitting women in
:57:46. > :57:49.labour? He promoted me! LAUGHTER Are you the living environment of
:57:50. > :57:58.that, then. Jeremy Zuttah always been committed to gender equality,
:57:59. > :58:03.generally. As for the mayoral, Sadiq Khan I think will tackle the issue
:58:04. > :58:05.that is most important London, housing, and also stand up for
:58:06. > :58:09.London as a diverse and vibrant And now for the rest
:58:10. > :58:16.of the news in sixty seconds. Four Tube line upgrades will be five
:58:17. > :58:19.years late and almost ?1 billion over budget, after gross
:58:20. > :58:20.mismanagement by Transport for London, according
:58:21. > :58:22.to the London assembly. TfL spent ?85 million
:58:23. > :58:24.paying of Bombardier, the firm originally
:58:25. > :58:25.appointed for the work. Boris Johnson has ordered
:58:26. > :58:28.a six-month enquiry into London s night-time economy,
:58:29. > :58:30.following the closure of a series The night-time commission will make
:58:31. > :58:41.recommendations on how to protect and manage the night-time
:58:42. > :58:42.economy this autumn, shortly after the planned
:58:43. > :58:44.launch of the 24-hour Makers of soft drinks will be taxed
:58:45. > :58:54.more under new rules The tax could raise ?500 million
:58:55. > :59:00.a year to help fund sports Some campaigners have welcomed
:59:01. > :59:03.the initiative to tackle the health Inner-city London has high rates
:59:04. > :59:09.of childhood obesity. In Hackney, more than a third
:59:10. > :59:28.of ten to 11-year-olds Diane, will it work, this sugar tax,
:59:29. > :59:35.in actually reducing the volume of sugar that is consumed by people?
:59:36. > :59:41.Yes, it has worked in France, it has worked in Mexico. For children in
:59:42. > :59:45.their mid to late teens, fairly a third of the sugar they consume
:59:46. > :59:49.comes from fizzy drinks, so having a tax on those kind of drinks will
:59:50. > :59:53.bring down consumption and be far better for them. The critics say it
:59:54. > :59:58.is regressive and will disproportionately hit the poorest.
:59:59. > :00:01.What do you say to them? Identifying, in a sense, that is
:00:02. > :00:04.what we are trying to achieve by bringing forward this tax, as Diane
:00:05. > :00:08.has just said. It is about changing behaviour but at the same time,
:00:09. > :00:11.frankly, it is about raising money from the people who are making
:00:12. > :00:15.profit out of selling these drinks so that we can put that went into
:00:16. > :00:18.school sports, which is a really constructive way of improving health
:00:19. > :00:24.in the first place. The evidence, though, is mixed. It did work in
:00:25. > :00:27.Mexico, it reduce consumption by around 6%, but after 18 months that
:00:28. > :00:32.consumption went back up again, that will be the fear. On it and it is
:00:33. > :00:38.not complete answer, but you cannot have children consuming gallons of
:00:39. > :00:42.fizzy drinks. It is not just puppy fat, they don't have diabetes, high
:00:43. > :00:47.BP. If this will help in anyway it is worth it. If you look at, for
:00:48. > :00:52.example, higher alcohol duty rates on beers that were really much more
:00:53. > :00:56.alcoholic than average, what you saw was the manufacturers react to that,
:00:57. > :01:01.and we saw alcohol levels in those highest alcoholic beers come down. I
:01:02. > :01:03.think what we will see is a combination firstly of people
:01:04. > :01:06.understanding just how much sugar is in the strings, but secondly then
:01:07. > :01:11.manufacturers really being forced to step up to the plate and start doing
:01:12. > :01:14.what they did on salt, steadily reducing the content within the
:01:15. > :01:17.product itself. Although the fears they will pass that on to the
:01:18. > :01:20.computers who will have to pay the extra cash. -- onto the consumers
:01:21. > :01:21.will stop My thanks to Diane Abbott
:01:22. > :01:36.and to Justine Greening. can David Cameron bring his
:01:37. > :01:40.government back together after Iain Duncan Smith's resignation? What
:01:41. > :01:44.happens to George Osborne's budget plans and what will the impact of
:01:45. > :01:47.all this be on the EU referendum campaign?
:01:48. > :02:01.So where does it go from here? I would suggest it gets worse for the
:02:02. > :02:04.Tories long before it gets better. Yes, I think one thing David Cameron
:02:05. > :02:08.and George Osborne might want to think carefully about is how they
:02:09. > :02:12.manage Iain Duncan Smith, and the pretty hostile briefing against him
:02:13. > :02:20.is only going to increase his ire. They should not forget that he has
:02:21. > :02:24.quite an important weapon, the private conversation with primers
:02:25. > :02:27.to's office in recent weeks, which show that the Prime Minister wanted
:02:28. > :02:33.to much, much further than Iain Duncan Smith was willing to go. When
:02:34. > :02:36.they say these were your ideas, why is it a problem, Iain Duncan Smith's
:02:37. > :02:41.argument is yes, these were my ideas, but they were part of a
:02:42. > :02:44.long-term sustainable plan. They were not about giving you, George
:02:45. > :02:49.Osborne, money to cut taxes for the wealthy, which is what he did in
:02:50. > :02:51.capital gains tax. So I think they probably need to handle Iain Duncan
:02:52. > :02:53.Smith with care because he could be dangerous for them if he really is
:02:54. > :03:01.on the loose. Is clear It already for every person
:03:02. > :03:07.in Downing Street is briefing to have a go at Iain Duncan Smith,
:03:08. > :03:13.there is someone ready to have a go at Mr Cameron and the government? I
:03:14. > :03:16.cannot remember a time since David Cameron became leader of the
:03:17. > :03:22.Conservative Party that discipline has broken down as it has in the
:03:23. > :03:27.last 48 hours. It is hard to see how he brings discipline back in before
:03:28. > :03:32.the referendum. His powers of patronage is limited, he doesn't
:03:33. > :03:38.want a big reshuffle before the referendum, he wants to wait. There
:03:39. > :03:52.is a feeling of open season. Is he on his way out? It is not in
:03:53. > :03:58.Brexit's interest to whip this up. People will worry what a big leap it
:03:59. > :04:02.is into the unknown if we leave If they think we are voting for a total
:04:03. > :04:07.change of government and Prime Minister, it puts the stakes of even
:04:08. > :04:11.higher. We might see believe campaign's dumping this down a
:04:12. > :04:19.little bit. The Chancellor, now among the walking wounded, has a
:04:20. > :04:24.budget to get to the House of Commons which deals through money
:04:25. > :04:28.matters. He needs a vote to cut the capital gains tax, cut corporation
:04:29. > :04:34.tax, raise the threshold for the 40% taxpayers. There is a danger with
:04:35. > :04:37.rebellion in the air and the Tory back benches rebel against one
:04:38. > :04:44.thing, as they do on disability they could rebel on other things? I
:04:45. > :04:48.think he has two problems, the immediate is the legislated
:04:49. > :04:51.challenge of getting the CGT cut and the threshold raised and everything
:04:52. > :04:57.else through Parliament in the coming weeks and months. Then he has
:04:58. > :04:59.to find the money he has just lost by reversing on the disability
:05:00. > :05:06.benefit cut. He has already lost money from reversing the tax credit
:05:07. > :05:12.policy. Which is why he broke his welfare cap. Exactly. Even if he
:05:13. > :05:15.gets through this immediate challenge of getting the budget
:05:16. > :05:20.through Parliament, his central purpose as a politician is to close
:05:21. > :05:24.the deficit. He has made it harder for himself by reversing on some of
:05:25. > :05:29.these contentious measures. It's not as if the problem ends in a few
:05:30. > :05:34.weeks' time. Isn't it made worse by the fact this is taking place in the
:05:35. > :05:39.midst of the EU referendum campaign, which had already divided
:05:40. > :05:45.conservatives. It like pouring petrol on the flames? It is hard to
:05:46. > :05:49.see anything other than another four months of mayhem. We don't know what
:05:50. > :05:55.the results of the referendum will be. Probably a good deal of mayhem
:05:56. > :06:00.after that. It is interesting how quiet Boris Johnson has been. I
:06:01. > :06:06.understand he is away skiing, but we haven't heard from friends of his.
:06:07. > :06:12.Maybe the lines are bad to the Alps. It shows you how serious his team
:06:13. > :06:20.are, they are being smart and will not wade in. This has been a good
:06:21. > :06:24.weekend for Brexit, because their most high profile member of the
:06:25. > :06:28.Cabinet has resigned and appears to be a bit bullied, possibly by George
:06:29. > :06:32.Osborne. He speaks from the heart of this because he had this visit to
:06:33. > :06:38.Glasgow and got onto this issue In that sense it is a good weekend the
:06:39. > :06:42.Brexit. But the problem for them, you need to be talking about the
:06:43. > :06:47.vision for the future of Britain. This is quite Westminster, inside.
:06:48. > :06:51.Brexit need to counter the main argument that they are the biggest
:06:52. > :06:56.risk. While there may be sympathy for Iain Duncan Smith, it is not
:06:57. > :07:00.getting on their argument. The two leading spokesman for the remain
:07:01. > :07:04.campaign on the conservative side the Prime Minister and the
:07:05. > :07:09.Chancellor. The Minister has a civil war on his hands and has to be
:07:10. > :07:13.careful he doesn't make it worse by some of the briefing Downing Street
:07:14. > :07:19.is behind. The second most important man is among the walking wounded.
:07:20. > :07:28.Why will people listen to him over the referendum. That is why it has
:07:29. > :07:32.been a good weekend for the Brexit. But the most political force in this
:07:33. > :07:35.country will make a big picture decision based on the big picture
:07:36. > :07:38.arguments of what is the safest option and what is the riskiest
:07:39. > :07:41.option. I am not sure this great excitement and eruptions in the
:07:42. > :07:47.Westminster village, I am not sure whether they massively register with
:07:48. > :07:51.the British people if they make a big decision are big issues. There
:07:52. > :07:57.is concern over the Conservative Party and their brands. They work so
:07:58. > :08:01.hard to detoxify themselves in the run-up to the last elections. It
:08:02. > :08:05.wasn't convincing, they were in coalition and now they have the
:08:06. > :08:13.smallest of majorities. Now it looks like they are the nasty party. At a
:08:14. > :08:17.time when the home strategy was to move to the centre ground? It hasn't
:08:18. > :08:21.worked. If I were a conservative strategist, I would concerned about
:08:22. > :08:26.the catastrophic damage to the party's brand. The Prime Minister
:08:27. > :08:31.keeps on making speeches, normally on Monday about the poor, about
:08:32. > :08:38.racial discrimination, about equality. All designed to position
:08:39. > :08:41.the Tories in the centre, even the centre-left ground, because they
:08:42. > :08:46.think Labour has left that. But they can come up with the tax credit
:08:47. > :08:51.fiasco and the disability fiasco. Who is running the show? It is hard
:08:52. > :08:57.to close the deficit once you have ring fence the NHS and everything
:08:58. > :09:01.else. But they make it difficult and provocative when they juxstapose a
:09:02. > :09:07.cut in tax credits, with raising the threshold of in terrorist --
:09:08. > :09:14.inheritance tax last year. Capital gains tax this year. They have had
:09:15. > :09:18.to do it because it was in the manifesto, but it didn't have to be
:09:19. > :09:22.in the manifesto and it is that juxtaposition rather than the cost
:09:23. > :09:28.of welfare that appeared to be so incendiary. You say it has been a
:09:29. > :09:32.good weekend the Brexit, and the domestic back drop will exacerbate
:09:33. > :09:37.tensions between the remain and leave. But there is an international
:09:38. > :09:43.guy mentioned to this. The EU in Turkey have come to an agreement, I
:09:44. > :09:49.think it starts tonight. And here is a guess, I'd bet it starts to
:09:50. > :09:53.unravel within 24 hours? It is the sort of thing that looks good on
:09:54. > :09:57.paper. Refugees who come over arson back to Turkey and Syrian refugees
:09:58. > :10:03.are sent to Europe. Looks great on paper. These are people who have
:10:04. > :10:08.risked their lives, seen people drowned in the Aegean Sea. Lost
:10:09. > :10:13.family members. They make it to Greece and you are going to say to
:10:14. > :10:19.them, get back. And they say, fine, I will do that. It will be difficult
:10:20. > :10:24.to do. UN agencies are saying they are not sure if it is legal. You
:10:25. > :10:28.cannot treat a group of migrants as a group under the Geneva Convention,
:10:29. > :10:35.they have to be treated as individuals. But this treats them as
:10:36. > :10:40.a group. If you see more unpleasant scenes out of Greece, more of a
:10:41. > :10:49.sense the European Union just hasn't tackled this problem, that all adds
:10:50. > :10:53.to the leave campaign? Yes, it is a real source of alarm. The debate
:10:54. > :10:59.about Turkey and the possible prospect of Turkey, in the
:11:00. > :11:03.long-term, becoming part of the EU, is extremely toxic. The outer
:11:04. > :11:10.campaign will be seeking to exploit every inch of that debate. It has
:11:11. > :11:17.been a horrible week for the remain campaign, politically and
:11:18. > :11:19.strategically. Ultimately, the decision by swing voters, people by
:11:20. > :11:27.definition have no principled view on the subject, will be based on big
:11:28. > :11:32.picture variables and factors. Would you rather have the Prime Minister,
:11:33. > :11:38.still a credible, by all accounts a reasonably popular Prime Minister,
:11:39. > :11:44.on your side? You would. It is a big asset than Iain Duncan Smith, Boris
:11:45. > :11:47.Johnson Michael Gove. One of the big elements of the bigger picture is
:11:48. > :11:53.the prospect of Turkey becoming a member of the European Union. I am
:11:54. > :11:57.not sure I will be alive at the time Turkey joins the European Union
:11:58. > :12:03.That means the EU is basically lying to Turkey? The implicit thing about
:12:04. > :12:08.the deal they have had is you make progress towards membership. I am
:12:09. > :12:12.making progress towards becoming a millionaire, it is not going to
:12:13. > :12:17.happen. I was looking to you for alone! I was in Luxembourg ten years
:12:18. > :12:23.ago when those accession negotiations began. The Foreign
:12:24. > :12:27.Minister of Turkey was made to wait in Ankara. He eventually flew
:12:28. > :12:31.through the night when Europe eventually said yes, we will start
:12:32. > :12:37.it. There has to be a referendum in France to allow them to join. The
:12:38. > :12:41.French will not vote in favour of Turkey joining. I agree it is not
:12:42. > :12:47.going to happen but it is a sleight of hand to imply to the Turks to get
:12:48. > :12:50.them to deal with the migrant crisis. They use it to get the money
:12:51. > :12:55.and sneak through various things. All Brexit has to do is create the
:12:56. > :13:01.impression that it might happen sooner or later and bingo, you will
:13:02. > :13:06.scare a lot of people. More worrying is how strategically depend on the
:13:07. > :13:09.West is on Turkey. The Turkish government, is nothing like the
:13:10. > :13:15.Turkish government than it was years ago. Which is why we are having to
:13:16. > :13:18.shut up about domestic Turkish affairs because we are so reliant on
:13:19. > :13:22.them. They are only closing newspapers. And locking people up.
:13:23. > :13:36.We will leave it there. We won't be back next week, it is
:13:37. > :13:38.Easter, but remember, if it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics.
:13:39. > :14:23.Unless of course, it is Easter. ..and that's what
:14:24. > :14:25.she felt with the blues. Most people can be oblivious
:14:26. > :14:32.to what's going on around them