:00:38. > :00:43.David Cameron thinks we'll be stronger, safer
:00:44. > :00:48.Leave campaigners say the real risk would be a vote to remain.
:00:49. > :00:53.So what are the dangers if we decide to stay?
:00:54. > :00:56.On his final presidential visit to the UK, Barack Obama
:00:57. > :01:00.will back the idea of Britain remaining in the EU.
:01:01. > :01:03.But is the leader of the free world right to wade into our debate?
:01:04. > :01:06.And before the referendum, there's the small matter
:01:07. > :01:09.of national and local elections right across the UK.
:01:10. > :01:24.In London, with less than three weeks to go to polling day,
:01:25. > :01:27.we hear from mayoral hopefuls Sian Berry of the Greens
:01:28. > :01:34.And with me, as always, our panel of the best and brightest
:01:35. > :01:37.political brains in the business, Nick Watt, Isabel Oakeshott
:01:38. > :01:48.Now, the referendum isn't the only vote looming on the horizon.
:01:49. > :01:51.Before the EU vote on June 23rd voters across the UK will get
:01:52. > :01:54.a chance to cast their ballot in a range of elections
:01:55. > :01:58.There are seven sets of elections happening in May,
:01:59. > :02:00.all of which will take place on the same day,
:02:01. > :02:05.Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland will hold national elections.
:02:06. > :02:09.There are 60 seats up for grabs in the Welsh Assembly.
:02:10. > :02:12.The Scottish Parliament, in which the SNP has held
:02:13. > :02:17.a majority since 2011, will elect 129 members,
:02:18. > :02:20.and in Northern Ireland, there are 108 seats that will be
:02:21. > :02:23.decided for representatives to the assembly at Stormont.
:02:24. > :02:27.Across England there are local government elections.
:02:28. > :02:30.124 councils have seats up for election.
:02:31. > :02:33.35 metropolitan councils, 19 unitary authorities
:02:34. > :02:36.and 70 district councils, and four cities in England
:02:37. > :02:59.will elect mayors, London, Bristol, Liverpool and Salford.
:03:00. > :03:01.Londoners will also elect members to the London Assembly
:03:02. > :03:05.Finally, voters in 41 police force areas in England and Wales
:03:06. > :03:07.will elect a Police And Crime Commissioner.
:03:08. > :03:09.Joining me now from Glasgow is our election guru,
:03:10. > :03:10.Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University.
:03:11. > :03:14.Let's start with the local elections in England. How should we judge the
:03:15. > :03:18.performance of Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party in these elections We
:03:19. > :03:26.have to appreciate that the seats up for grabs on me the these elections
:03:27. > :03:32.were for the most part fought for three year is ago. We are looking at
:03:33. > :03:35.the time of George Osborne's so-called a shambles budget when
:03:36. > :03:40.support for the Conservatives fell away. These were the only set of
:03:41. > :03:43.elections during the last parliament where the Labour Party began to put
:03:44. > :03:46.in a performance where you might have thought they would have been
:03:47. > :03:52.capable of winning the next election. Jeremy Corbyn's
:03:53. > :03:57.misfortune, he is defending not a brilliant baseline, but a relatively
:03:58. > :04:02.good one. Labour six or seven points ahead, as judged by their share of
:04:03. > :04:07.the vote. The truth is that Jeremy Corbyn is not 67 points ahead. In
:04:08. > :04:13.contrast to what we might have expected a few weeks ago, he is no
:04:14. > :04:17.longer 67 points behind. Labour and the Conservatives seem to be quite
:04:18. > :04:23.close to each other. That means that in practice Mr Corbyn may well be
:04:24. > :04:27.facing losses. The figure of 15 has been bandied around. Will that be
:04:28. > :04:32.good? Better than it might have been a few weeks ago. Is it the sort of
:04:33. > :04:39.performance to persuade you that the Labour Party is on course to win the
:04:40. > :04:43.general election? Certainly not Is the biggest threat that they would
:04:44. > :04:48.lose London, and would that be unlikely? I agree it would be
:04:49. > :04:52.unlikely. If they were to fail to win the London mayoral election
:04:53. > :05:00.that would be a serious reverse for Labour. Back in 2012, although Boris
:05:01. > :05:05.Johnson on the London mayoral election, Labour was clearly ahead
:05:06. > :05:11.in the parallel election. Neither Sadiq Khan, the Labour candidate,
:05:12. > :05:16.Northside Goldsmith, the concerted of the -- the Conservative
:05:17. > :05:19.candidate, has the same kind of attractiveness to the public. Labour
:05:20. > :05:26.did relatively well in London 1 months ago. If David Cameron were
:05:27. > :05:34.not to win that election, Labour would have questions to ask itself.
:05:35. > :05:39.Could Labour even come third behind the Scottish Tories? The answer is
:05:40. > :05:42.that they could. There is another opinion poll lead this morning that
:05:43. > :05:50.put Labour on the Conservatives neck and neck with each other. Some
:05:51. > :05:54.opinion polls put Labour and the Conservatives together, but not by
:05:55. > :05:58.much. Labour neglect the heading for a very bad performance. It would be
:05:59. > :06:04.the worst result in any election since 1918. I do not think it will
:06:05. > :06:07.tell you much about Jeremy Corbyn and his popularity. We have to
:06:08. > :06:09.remember that what happens in Scotland is very distinct and
:06:10. > :06:15.separate from what happens in the rest of the UK. The election in
:06:16. > :06:21.Scotland is going to be, primarily, framed by people's views about
:06:22. > :06:25.independence. The truth is the overall majority of people that
:06:26. > :06:29.voted for independence are still determined to vote for the SNP. So
:06:30. > :06:34.long as that remains the case, Labour will struggle another the
:06:35. > :06:37.border. It has to do with Scottish politics and little to do with what
:06:38. > :06:43.is happening in the rest of the UK. Is there really a Ukip surge in
:06:44. > :06:48.Wales? The opinion polls suggest that Ukip are doing well in Wales.
:06:49. > :06:53.But that is roughly where the opinion polls are putting Ukip
:06:54. > :06:57.across the UK as a whole. In Wales, as in Scotland, and the London
:06:58. > :07:05.assembly elections, the elections are being held by proportional
:07:06. > :07:08.representation, not first past the post, so if Ukip can get the 15
:07:09. > :07:10.that the opinion polls suggest that the might get, they will get
:07:11. > :07:14.significant representation in the Welsh assembly. Getting Ukip grade
:07:15. > :07:19.is one of the things in which the opinion polls tend to disagree with
:07:20. > :07:23.each other. Ukip will perhaps not do as well as that, they will get some
:07:24. > :07:30.seats, but perhaps not as well as the parties hoping. Northern
:07:31. > :07:34.Ireland, and the executive almost collapsed there last year. Will the
:07:35. > :07:40.turmoil at Stormont, is it likely expected to change people's voting
:07:41. > :07:46.patterns this time? We not expecting a vast in Northern Ireland. Not only
:07:47. > :07:55.is the assembly elected proportionally, but so is the
:07:56. > :07:58.elected -- the executive. The larger of the two Unionist parties and the
:07:59. > :08:02.Nationalist parties might not be quite as strong as last time. No one
:08:03. > :08:07.is expecting very much in way of a major change. Thank you for joining
:08:08. > :08:12.us. Nick Watt, let me come to you. These elections are widely being
:08:13. > :08:17.seen as Mr Corbyn's first serious test. What a Labour's real
:08:18. > :08:22.expectations? The expectation is there going to do badly in Scotland.
:08:23. > :08:27.That is in. They will do badly in Wales but the expecting that. They
:08:28. > :08:31.will not admit that they could do very badly in the English local
:08:32. > :08:35.elections, and that they could lose seats. If the Labour Party lost
:08:36. > :08:39.seats in the local elections, it would be the first time since 1 85
:08:40. > :08:44.that an opposition party had suffered losses in local elections
:08:45. > :08:49.in a non-general election year. It would be woolly bad. What did is
:08:50. > :08:54.down two at the end of the day, I know we should not wish think about
:08:55. > :08:59.London, a great picture of Glasgow behind John Curtice, but it is down
:09:00. > :09:04.to London. Jeremy Corbyn needs one victory and he looks like he will
:09:05. > :09:08.get one, Sadiq Khan in London. That will probably enough. He can do
:09:09. > :09:14.badly everywhere else but as long as he holds onto London years save I
:09:15. > :09:19.think because the others are just priced in. If he can be seen to
:09:20. > :09:23.notch up one victory, it is a bit like the old and Royston by-election
:09:24. > :09:29.at the end of last year. Everyone assumes that they will do badly
:09:30. > :09:33.They did well, it stabilises the leadership. He would probably be
:09:34. > :09:38.safe even if you lost London? I think he would be. Those who would
:09:39. > :09:40.like to see the back of have the difficulty that essentially his
:09:41. > :09:45.supporters control the party membership. It is an interesting
:09:46. > :09:50.question, how this is going to be judged. I spoke to one of Jeremy
:09:51. > :09:54.Corbyn's critics within the parliamentary party this morning and
:09:55. > :09:59.was surprised how upbeat he sounded. He said, I think we might put on a
:10:00. > :10:04.couple of hundred seats. This is a terrible time for the Tory
:10:05. > :10:08.leadership. I came off the phone and thought, this is about expectation
:10:09. > :10:14.management. This is the critics of Jeremy Corbyn saying that we should
:10:15. > :10:18.put on a few hundred seats. When they do not, they will see it as a
:10:19. > :10:23.disaster. The setting him up to fail. The Tories are expected to do
:10:24. > :10:27.quite well in these elections, even in Wales. We have had the budget,
:10:28. > :10:32.the Panama Papers, the steel crisis, the split over the referendum. It
:10:33. > :10:38.has got to take its toll on the Tories? It has in the opinion polls,
:10:39. > :10:43.which are Sean at the minimum of the Tory lead, narrowing, and in some
:10:44. > :10:48.cases Labour pulling ahead. I suspect some Tories would not mind
:10:49. > :10:53.doing badly in the local elections in England if it relieves the
:10:54. > :10:56.pressure on Jeremy Corbyn, who they want in place over the next four
:10:57. > :11:03.years and contesting the 2020 general election. Even if Labour do
:11:04. > :11:08.badly in Scotland, Jeremy Corbyn owes a debt to Sadiq Khan, because
:11:09. > :11:12.his likely but not certain victory in London, judging by the opinion
:11:13. > :11:17.polls, will attract more attention than elections everywhere, not
:11:18. > :11:24.before it deserves -- not because it deserves to, but because the media
:11:25. > :11:27.has a slight skew towards London. It is a slightly sexier office. It will
:11:28. > :11:32.drown out any underperformance that Labour have in the rest of the
:11:33. > :11:36.country. Is it too cynical to say that some Tories will not be too
:11:37. > :11:40.upset if they do not win London because Mr Corbyn will then be
:11:41. > :11:47.secure? I do not think that is cynical. That is absolutely the
:11:48. > :11:52.case. Janan is right. There will be lots of post-analysis about how the
:11:53. > :11:56.billionaire's son, Zac Goldsmith, lost the election. It is interesting
:11:57. > :11:59.that the people who want to get rid of Jeremy Corbyn in the Labour
:12:00. > :12:04.Party, the window they are talking about is not after the local
:12:05. > :12:07.elections, but after the referendum at the end of June. We might be
:12:08. > :12:09.focused on the Conservatives by then. I think the troubles of the
:12:10. > :12:16.Tory party will take the focus then. So the referendum
:12:17. > :12:18.campaign has begun. The official campaign groups have
:12:19. > :12:20.been designated and the arguments The Prime Minister says we'll be
:12:21. > :12:25.stronger, safer, and better off in. And a vote to leave,
:12:26. > :12:27.says to Mr Cameron, But it won't have escaped your
:12:28. > :12:33.attention that the EU is also facing challenges,
:12:34. > :12:36.a migration crisis, economic So, if we do decide to remain,
:12:37. > :12:41.what are the risks ahead of us? For some, the consequences of this
:12:42. > :12:52.EU referendum are crystal clear For the rest of us,
:12:53. > :12:55.it is difficult to see the future after June the 23rd,
:12:56. > :12:57.hard to predict. Of course, the politicians claim
:12:58. > :13:03.to know our fortunes. This cannot be described as anything
:13:04. > :13:05.other than risk, uncertainty, We have clearly elevated Brexit
:13:06. > :13:15.as one of the serious downside risks I firmly believe that leaving the EU
:13:16. > :13:21.would leave our country less secure. This lot, Vote Leave,
:13:22. > :13:24.call it Project Fear. They say the other side is trying
:13:25. > :13:27.to scare people into thinking that Instead they say that
:13:28. > :13:33.the uncertainty is staying in. What will the EU look like in five,
:13:34. > :13:39.ten, 15 years? For me, it would be an outdated
:13:40. > :13:42.bloc, something that was created in the last century,
:13:43. > :13:46.something that can neither control It has been foretold that migration
:13:47. > :13:53.will be one of the dominant David Cameron insists his negotiated
:13:54. > :14:00.emergency brake on migrants' in work benefits as well as changes to child
:14:01. > :14:03.benefits will discourage EU migration, but some experts say it
:14:04. > :14:09.will have little impact. Figures from the Migration
:14:10. > :14:12.Observatory this week suggest that continuing economic instability
:14:13. > :14:17.in the Eurozone is encouraging an increasing number of southern
:14:18. > :14:20.European migrants to head to the UK Looking forward, it is very
:14:21. > :14:24.difficult to know It is possible that if the gap
:14:25. > :14:29.in economic performance between the UK and other
:14:30. > :14:31.countries, for example, Italy, Portugal and Spain,
:14:32. > :14:35.remains significant, there could be quite a pull factor
:14:36. > :14:38.for some time. It is also possible if there is more
:14:39. > :14:40.economic convergence that we could see the numbers
:14:41. > :14:43.start to fall. Much has also been made this week
:14:44. > :14:47.about the risk to both the British and the global economy if Britain
:14:48. > :14:50.voted to leave the EU, In the single market we trade freely
:14:51. > :14:54.right across Europe and we have a say in making
:14:55. > :14:57.the rules across the Continent. If we leave, we give
:14:58. > :15:01.all of that up with no idea The real economic risks are for
:15:02. > :15:07.staying in the European Union. We might find ourselves on the hook
:15:08. > :15:11.for bailouts for countries that are having difficulty staying
:15:12. > :15:14.in the euro in the future. We might find that our rebate comes
:15:15. > :15:18.under assault in the future, we might find that the amount
:15:19. > :15:21.of money overall that we have to give the European Union
:15:22. > :15:26.goes up and up and up. A few weeks ago, the Governor
:15:27. > :15:29.of the Bank of England said that leaving the EU was the biggest
:15:30. > :15:31.domestic risk to Membership of the European Union
:15:32. > :15:36.brings risks as well, and the principal risk,
:15:37. > :15:38.risks I should say, because there are more than one
:15:39. > :15:40.are associated with the unfinished On the issue of whether our laws
:15:41. > :15:52.are made in Westminster or Brussels, for those wanting to leave the EU,
:15:53. > :15:56.a vote to remain would mean handing Fewer and fewer things over
:15:57. > :15:59.which we have the authority Fewer and fewer of our decisions can
:16:00. > :16:03.be upheld in British courts And I also know that fewer and fewer
:16:04. > :16:13.decisions will be made on European Union level
:16:14. > :16:16.which will be in British interests. And yet one former minister told me
:16:17. > :16:19.that pooling some decision-making The truth is that if you enter
:16:20. > :16:26.into any international agreement, then you may agree that those
:16:27. > :16:28.decisions should be Our Nato membership involves exactly
:16:29. > :16:31.the same kind of arrangement. We allow Nato to take a decision
:16:32. > :16:34.for our collective strength. Both sides seemed to agree a vote
:16:35. > :16:49.to remain is not a vote Those who want to stay
:16:50. > :16:54.in are confident, at least publicly, that the renegotiation will change
:16:55. > :16:57.for the better our relationship Those who want out say that
:16:58. > :17:01.relationship will only get worse. Quite how persuasive
:17:02. > :17:02.those two visions are, I predict we will find out
:17:03. > :17:14.on June the 24th. Joining me now is Labour MP
:17:15. > :17:16.Tristram Hunt, he was a member of the Shadow Cabinet
:17:17. > :17:19.under Ed Miliband. He is now campaigning for Britain
:17:20. > :17:30.to remain in the EU. Do you accept, let's look at some of
:17:31. > :17:32.the risks that could be associated with remaining, start with
:17:33. > :17:36.immigration. Do you accept that as long as we remain in the EU we have
:17:37. > :17:42.no real control of the numbers coming to our country? The European
:17:43. > :17:46.Union is not perfect and it is quite right to have this debate about how
:17:47. > :17:52.we reform Europe in the future. When it comes to our borders, we check
:17:53. > :17:56.who comes in. There will remain passport controls but we have to
:17:57. > :18:00.make sure that we explain to people that if we left Europe but still
:18:01. > :18:05.wanted to trade with the single market, we would also have to have
:18:06. > :18:08.the free movement of people just as Norway and Switzerland does. But in
:18:09. > :18:12.the long run I think there is an interesting question about the
:18:13. > :18:17.degree of free movement of people across the European Union. My point
:18:18. > :18:20.is that Britain should be a part of that conversation. We should be
:18:21. > :18:25.involved in that reform and change and if we are not at the table than
:18:26. > :18:29.our voice won't be heard. The numbers would seem to be beyond our
:18:30. > :18:33.control because that's the price of membership. Over the past five years
:18:34. > :18:40.the number of EU nationals living in the UK has risen by 700,000, it is
:18:41. > :18:57.now 3.3 million, it has doubled in ten years. As long as we remain in
:18:58. > :19:01.the EU it is surely a risk that at least another 700,000 could come in
:19:02. > :19:04.the next five years, it could be even more. Or it could be markedly
:19:05. > :19:07.less. If we go back to a time when the British economy was worse in the
:19:08. > :19:09.1980s, we saw large numbers of people going abroad to work in the
:19:10. > :19:12.European Union. We are taking a snapshot at the moment and the point
:19:13. > :19:14.about pooling risk across the single market is that when your economy is
:19:15. > :19:17.in difficulty you can take opportunities in other parts of the
:19:18. > :19:22.country. In the UK we should be supporting reforms to make sure
:19:23. > :19:26.there are not benefit attractions to coming to the UK so I think the
:19:27. > :19:30.Prime Minister's point about having to pay in before you take out, the
:19:31. > :19:33.point about fairness is really important and I think people in
:19:34. > :19:38.Britain think that if people are coming here to work, to pay their
:19:39. > :19:43.taxes and contribute to society that is fine. You say it's a
:19:44. > :19:48.snapshot but let's look at this chart. Over the last five years as
:19:49. > :19:55.you can see from that, from about 2012, under five years in fact,
:19:56. > :20:02.these are the absolute number, immigration from the EU has risen
:20:03. > :20:07.dramatically. My point is it is not a snapshot, it is a clear trend The
:20:08. > :20:15.part of immigration over which we have no control is rising the
:20:16. > :20:19.fastest, isn't that a risk? But we go back to 1975 so historically this
:20:20. > :20:24.is a snapshot, and overtime this well change. We cannot have a system
:20:25. > :20:28.whereby you turn up in the UK and claim benefits from day one. You
:20:29. > :20:35.have to have a contributory principle. Also, those parts of the
:20:36. > :20:39.country, Boston in Lincolnshire parts that have experienced high
:20:40. > :20:44.levels of immigration and we should be open and honest about this that
:20:45. > :20:47.we have seen statistics show big changes and may have impacted
:20:48. > :20:51.communities in big ways sometimes, they need the extra resource for
:20:52. > :20:57.schools and hospitals that this brings in. The case I'm putting to
:20:58. > :21:01.you this morning is that that is not necessarily a snapshot or that it
:21:02. > :21:07.will necessarily change. Let's look at the risks we would face in the
:21:08. > :21:11.years to come. Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, decided that last
:21:12. > :21:14.year over a million Syrian immigrants could go to Germany.
:21:15. > :21:22.Eventually they could come here if they wish. Why should we be at the
:21:23. > :21:26.risk of unilateral decisions taken by a foreign leader? Obviously there
:21:27. > :21:31.are issues about residency rights in Germany or Italy before anyone could
:21:32. > :21:35.come to the UK. We retain border controls. If they become German
:21:36. > :21:41.citizens they will be allowed to come here. This is a balance of
:21:42. > :21:47.risks, on June the 23rd of voters have to weigh up these may bes. What
:21:48. > :21:51.we have heard clearly from the governor of the Bank of England the
:21:52. > :21:55.Chancellor of the Exchequer, the head of the IMF, that there will be
:21:56. > :22:00.a seismic economic shock to the British economy. I understand that
:22:01. > :22:05.and there has been plenty of coverage of the risks of coming out,
:22:06. > :22:09.but I'm looking at the risks of staying in. Let me give you another
:22:10. > :22:17.one, I've given you the Angela Merkel example. Albania, Turkey and
:22:18. > :22:22.others all want to join the EU. More people that could have a right to
:22:23. > :22:27.come and live and work in the UK. That is a risk. We are already
:22:28. > :22:31.seeing the risk of Brexit. The pound is falling in value, economic
:22:32. > :22:37.decisions are not being taken at the moment. I'm not arguing that there
:22:38. > :22:42.are risks to coming out, I perfectly understand that. I'm looking at the
:22:43. > :22:47.risks if we stay in. Address this issue that the risk is of another 87
:22:48. > :22:59.more people with the right to come to Britain. My point is the risks
:23:00. > :23:04.are happening now,... What is your answer to the 87 million? The
:23:05. > :23:07.extension of Europe has to be managed carefully. The broader
:23:08. > :23:09.conversation about the total free movement of people across the
:23:10. > :23:15.European Union is something that needs to be addressed but firstly we
:23:16. > :23:20.won't have any say over that if we have left the European Union.
:23:21. > :23:24.Secondly, those countries which trade with Europe like Norway and
:23:25. > :23:29.Switzerland also have to accept the free movement of people. There's no
:23:30. > :23:34.free ticket on this. What I want is a strong Great Britain at the
:23:35. > :23:37.negotiating table making the case for our borders and security. When
:23:38. > :23:42.it comes to the free movement of people you raised the issue of
:23:43. > :23:46.Syrian refugees and concerns about security in the aftermath of
:23:47. > :23:51.Brussels and Paris, being part of Europe and having security
:23:52. > :23:57.connections with Europe makes us stronger. There's talk of another
:23:58. > :24:01.Greek financial bailout, fears of an Italian banking crisis looming this
:24:02. > :24:04.summer. If the eurozone plunges into another recession, the numbers
:24:05. > :24:13.coming here could easily hit new record highs. We have also seen we
:24:14. > :24:18.are not part of the Europe... They will come here looking for jobs We
:24:19. > :24:24.are not on the hook for the Greek bailout. We were with the last one.
:24:25. > :24:29.Not to the same degree as other European members. We negotiated a
:24:30. > :24:33.strong exemption from that. This is about Britain having a strong voice
:24:34. > :24:41.at the negotiating table and you are offering up your own Project Fear. I
:24:42. > :24:46.am taking a methodical look at the risks. The eurozone is stagnating at
:24:47. > :24:56.the moment, that's why Spaniards, Italian and Portuguese are pouring
:24:57. > :25:00.into this country in huge numbers. If the eurozone was to tilt into
:25:01. > :25:06.another recession, that risks a lot more. It is a risk, and the British
:25:07. > :25:10.answer to that should be to deepen the single market, to make it more
:25:11. > :25:21.effective, to have growth across Europe. You do, if you have a strong
:25:22. > :25:25.British voice arguing for growth across Europe. You're talking about
:25:26. > :25:31.these potential threats in the future, we have a threat now.
:25:32. > :25:35.Businesses in my constituency, Stoke-on-Trent, are not making
:25:36. > :25:41.investment decisions. Indecision, two years of negotiation if we
:25:42. > :25:47.leave. Hold on... Two years of indecision if we vote to leave. Why
:25:48. > :25:51.are they eyeing the British stock exchange if there is indecision
:25:52. > :25:54.There will always be levels of flow and investment but what we are
:25:55. > :26:00.seeing is fear and concern about the future. I think of workers in
:26:01. > :26:05.Staffordshire who go to work at the Toyota plant in Derby, they have
:26:06. > :26:16.jobs because of being part of the single market. I'm talking about the
:26:17. > :26:20.risks if we remain. Do you deny that if we stay in we face further
:26:21. > :26:24.integration? We have had a clear commitment from the Prime Minister
:26:25. > :26:28.that we won't be involved in ever closer union and that is a big
:26:29. > :26:34.philosophical moment, that Britain has a distinct and different stance
:26:35. > :26:39.to the rest of the European Union. I think people will benefit from the
:26:40. > :26:44.best of both worlds. If that is the case, you will be familiar with D5
:26:45. > :26:49.president report, the official road map for greater integration into the
:26:50. > :26:56.European Union. It calls for financial, fiscal and political
:26:57. > :27:00.union by 2025. That could affect us. We have a clear commitment we will
:27:01. > :27:06.not be involved in ever closer union. Have you read this report?
:27:07. > :27:13.Not all of it. It is not a long report. It says much of what I have
:27:14. > :27:18.just named, not all, but much of that could be achieved already
:27:19. > :27:23.through a deepening of the single market, which is important for all
:27:24. > :27:29.28 EU members, so we would not necessarily be excluded. I am in
:27:30. > :27:36.favour of a deep into single market so that those 200,000 businesses in
:27:37. > :27:41.the UK, exporting to Europe, have greater growth and opportunities.
:27:42. > :27:46.People become richer. So there could be deeper integration. I would like
:27:47. > :27:50.to see the digital and service economy grated more, we want more
:27:51. > :27:57.jobs and growth across Europe that Britain will benefit from. Why would
:27:58. > :28:01.we, when we face a global fear about downturn, decide to cut ourselves
:28:02. > :28:09.off from the richest market in the world. You say it is the richest, it
:28:10. > :28:13.is also stagnating. Because we cannot do our own trade deals with
:28:14. > :28:18.the part of the world that is growing, our trade is therefore
:28:19. > :28:22.hindered. It has taken seven years to reach a deal with Canada, it is
:28:23. > :28:28.not complete, the free trade deal with Australia has been blocked by
:28:29. > :28:33.Italy. These are all growth markets, unlike Europe, and we are unable to
:28:34. > :28:39.do free trade deals with them. That is a risk. Do you honestly think
:28:40. > :28:45.that if we left Europe and there were negotiations with India about a
:28:46. > :28:50.free trade deal, the UK, 60 million people, would be ahead of the queue
:28:51. > :28:55.of the European Union... Nothing is happening with India for nine years.
:28:56. > :29:00.We had historic links with India. What about Australia and Canada We
:29:01. > :29:05.are not owed a living in the world. We have to make our businesses grow
:29:06. > :29:10.on their own terms and you do that by being part of the European Union.
:29:11. > :29:15.You have a much greater weight around the world by being part of
:29:16. > :29:18.this. My point is that we have the best of both worlds. We have the
:29:19. > :29:25.historic connections with the Commonwealth, with America. But why
:29:26. > :29:29.does the American trade representative say to us you would
:29:30. > :29:35.be crazy to leave Europe. Why do our allies around the world say you
:29:36. > :29:40.should be part of Europe? You say we won't be part of any further
:29:41. > :29:44.political integration, you say we won't join the euro, we won't be
:29:45. > :29:48.part of Schengen, and yet it is clear Europe will become at least
:29:49. > :29:51.within the eurozone more and more integrated. We will have less
:29:52. > :29:58.influence on that, we will essentially become a semi detached
:29:59. > :30:03.country club. What is the point The point is a growing market for
:30:04. > :30:06.British businesses of 500 million people, and yes, this is the point
:30:07. > :30:12.about the best of both worlds, we don't want ever closer political
:30:13. > :30:16.union. We want access to the single market. The best of both worlds
:30:17. > :30:19.safer, stronger and better off in Europe.
:30:20. > :30:21.Now, this week President Obama will make his valedictory
:30:22. > :30:25.He'll even have lunch with the Queen to celebrate her ninetieth birthday,
:30:26. > :30:31.presumably after she's watched the Daily Politics.
:30:32. > :30:35.But it's another aspect of Mr Obama's visit
:30:36. > :30:39.While he's here, the leader of the free world is expected
:30:40. > :30:41.to endorse the idea of the UK remaining in the
:30:42. > :30:44.Those campaigning to leave the EU are,
:30:45. > :30:45.surprise, surprise, a
:30:46. > :30:47.Here's what Boris Johnson had to say yesterday.
:30:48. > :30:50.I just find it absolutely bizarre that we are being lectured
:30:51. > :30:52.by the Americans about giving up our sovereignty,
:30:53. > :30:58.The United States, for their own reasons, their own history,
:30:59. > :31:03.traditions, based on the ideas of no taxation without representation
:31:04. > :31:06.a fervent belief in the inviolability of American democracy,
:31:07. > :31:07.they would not dream of sharing sovereignty.
:31:08. > :31:14.Is he in danger of making America look like a hypocrite?
:31:15. > :31:19.Not in danger of it, I am afraid there is an intrinsic hypocrisy
:31:20. > :31:24.I do not know what he's going to say, but if that is
:31:25. > :31:31.the American argument, of course it is nakedly hypocritical.
:31:32. > :31:33.To discuss this I'm joined by James Rubin.
:31:34. > :31:39.He was a spokesman in the US State Department during Bill
:31:40. > :31:42.And Liam Fox, former Defence Secretary, and a leading
:31:43. > :31:44.light in the campaign to leave the EU.
:31:45. > :31:51.Why should the leader of her closest allies, with whom we have a special
:31:52. > :31:55.relationship, on your regard as crucial to this country, not say
:31:56. > :32:00.what he thinks is in our national interest? He is entitled to say what
:32:01. > :32:05.he thinks is an America's national interest, but whether it is in the
:32:06. > :32:08.interests of Britain is a different question. Of course the president is
:32:09. > :32:14.entitled to say what he thinks, but we have to add a couple of caveats.
:32:15. > :32:18.That is his view. There are other views in America, Senator Rubio for
:32:19. > :32:22.example expressing a different view, he has expressed what he thinks
:32:23. > :32:30.about the special relationship if Britain were to leave the European
:32:31. > :32:32.Union. Tell me one previous American administration, Democratic or
:32:33. > :32:38.Republican, that thought we should not be in the EU, or did not care if
:32:39. > :32:42.we left? It is not a question of what the express, it is that they
:32:43. > :32:47.should respect what Britain does. They all want us to stay? There were
:32:48. > :32:51.strong elements of the last Republican administration, strong
:32:52. > :32:55.Republican leaders at present, who do not think... I do not remember
:32:56. > :33:01.the second President Bush saying that Britain should leave the EU.
:33:02. > :33:06.The debate is now, about our future, our relationship with the rest of
:33:07. > :33:09.the world. It is fair to say, though I might not use the same
:33:10. > :33:13.terminology, it is unthinkable that the United States would allow a
:33:14. > :33:18.court to overrule the Supreme Court or someone else to determine their
:33:19. > :33:22.external borders, in a way that the European Union does for the United
:33:23. > :33:29.Kingdom. Boris Johnson has made that point. President Obama, supporting
:33:30. > :33:31.things for Britain, things that no European -- that no American
:33:32. > :33:37.president would contemplate. Maybe we would be more inclined to listen
:33:38. > :33:41.to the president if he favoured an open border with Mexico, and if
:33:42. > :33:46.Congress was no longer the ultimate decider of federal law? Let me see a
:33:47. > :33:50.couple of things. I am glad that my colleague agrees that the president
:33:51. > :33:54.is attacked -- entitled to express his view of what is in the
:33:55. > :34:01.President's interest. -- America's interest. America and the EU
:34:02. > :34:06.together, they are the most powerful force for free markets and democracy
:34:07. > :34:10.around the world. If Britain leads the European Union, we will be
:34:11. > :34:12.weaker. We will might be able to pursue the great values that our
:34:13. > :34:17.countries have pushed around the world. Written working with the
:34:18. > :34:24.United States and the EU is able to do that. We have a joke in America,
:34:25. > :34:27.but it is a serious matter. Friends do not let friends drive drunk. This
:34:28. > :34:31.is not in our interest, or the interests of the world. What about
:34:32. > :34:35.our interest? You will make that judgment. Is the president simply
:34:36. > :34:41.going to say it is in the interests of America? I think he will avoid
:34:42. > :34:47.telling Britain what is in Britain's interest. About the point on
:34:48. > :34:51.hypocrisy, I know Boris Johnson likes to read biographies of the
:34:52. > :34:56.past. Maybe he is living in the past when he thinks that America is a
:34:57. > :35:01.very large country, a superpower, it has the world's largest military. It
:35:02. > :35:07.does not have to do only what you choose is compared to the British.
:35:08. > :35:10.Britain is a different country, not the superpower any more. Just
:35:11. > :35:14.because we will not do something does not mean that the British
:35:15. > :35:17.ignored. If the US president was coming here to support Leave, you
:35:18. > :35:23.would be shouting it from the rooftops? I do not think we will
:35:24. > :35:27.find out if that is true or not There is an element of hypocrisy. We
:35:28. > :35:33.need to get the balance. We need to stick to the issues. We recognise
:35:34. > :35:37.the president is alleged to have his view, but it is not the only
:35:38. > :35:41.American view of what is in America's interests. We have to
:35:42. > :35:46.recognise it is a British debate ultimately. We will make our
:35:47. > :35:49.decision. As to this point about pushing our values, Britain had the
:35:50. > :35:54.same values before we joined the European Union in 1973. The fact we
:35:55. > :36:00.will be changing our philosophical approach because we are part of the
:36:01. > :36:03.group in union is not true. I mean that the EU is a very powerful
:36:04. > :36:07.instrument in our world. The United States has great military power but
:36:08. > :36:13.there are other powers we need to achieve order and stability, and
:36:14. > :36:18.promote free markets. We need the ability to promote sanctions and
:36:19. > :36:22.provide aid. We need the ability to promote democracy. The EU is good at
:36:23. > :36:27.that working with the United States. We are better able to do that when
:36:28. > :36:32.our closest ally is within the EU. Let him come back on that. We think
:36:33. > :36:36.that the European Union is failing and that the structural failures of
:36:37. > :36:41.the European Union are not good for the West. We are seeing the
:36:42. > :36:44.re-emergence of nationalist tensions across Europe. We are seeing fence
:36:45. > :36:50.building. That is not the fault of the EU. It is a failure of the EU.
:36:51. > :36:54.We are seeing a whole generation of young Europeans unemployed as a
:36:55. > :36:58.result of the single currency. It is creating tensions. You did not have
:36:59. > :37:04.a problem with foreigners weighing in during the Scottish referendum.
:37:05. > :37:09.You told the Scandinavian countries, if your analysis is that Scottish
:37:10. > :37:12.independence is a threat to your security, why are you not standing
:37:13. > :37:16.up and saying it? President Obama probably thinks it is a threat to
:37:17. > :37:22.allow security, so why should they not see that? I thought it was a
:37:23. > :37:27.risk to the security of Britain in the Scottish referendum if we left
:37:28. > :37:31.Natal. If Britain pulls out of the EU, the Scottish will pull out of
:37:32. > :37:35.Britain and there will be a hold-mac in Natal. I do not believe that to
:37:36. > :37:41.be true. When were you last in Scotland? I was recently there and I
:37:42. > :37:47.sat with the Scottish party leader. They have been clear that if the EU
:37:48. > :37:51.does not include Britain, the Scottish want to lead. Interest is
:37:52. > :37:56.one thing, having an opinion about what the SNP will do is different.
:37:57. > :38:00.THEY ALL SPEAK AT ONCE What about Senator Cruise, he is
:38:01. > :38:04.fighting for the Republican nomination with Donald Trump. He
:38:05. > :38:09.said that Mr Obama's comments will make it more likely that England, he
:38:10. > :38:13.means Britain, that England will pull out of the EU? I do not think
:38:14. > :38:18.it will have a massive impact either way in terms of the British result.
:38:19. > :38:22.I think it is important for us to recognise that this is a decision
:38:23. > :38:27.for the United Kingdom. I do not agree with this assessment that the
:38:28. > :38:31.European Union in its current model is good for the United States. It is
:38:32. > :38:37.unstable. Now you're giving an opinion for us. You just asked me
:38:38. > :38:41.not to do that. The United States and Britain working together have
:38:42. > :38:45.made the world a better place for democracy, for a free market. We are
:38:46. > :38:51.only able to do that successfully when our closest ally is part of the
:38:52. > :38:55.EU. American foreign policy will be weaker, Western foreign policy will
:38:56. > :39:00.be weaker if the British leave the EU. We look forward to the
:39:01. > :39:02.President's visit, whatever he has to say. Thank you.
:39:03. > :39:04.It's just gone 11:35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:39:05. > :39:06.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:39:07. > :39:10.Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead.
:39:11. > :39:21.First though, the Sunday Politics where you are.
:39:22. > :39:23.Hello and welcome to the London part of the show.
:39:24. > :39:29.It's less than three weeks until London decides
:39:30. > :39:33.Last week we heard from George Galloway of Respect
:39:34. > :39:39.This week two further candidates go under the spotlight.
:39:40. > :39:41.Later, I will be speaking to Caroline Pidgeon
:39:42. > :39:45.But first, last year it wasn't just Jeremy Corbyn
:39:46. > :39:49.and the Labour Party which
:39:50. > :39:55.saw an unprecedented surge of support.
:39:56. > :39:58.In January 2015, the Green Party were signing up to 13,000 new
:39:59. > :40:03.And with the Liberal Democrats' support declining at last
:40:04. > :40:06.year's general election, could the Greens, who came third
:40:07. > :40:08.in the 2012 mayoral election, convert that
:40:09. > :40:10.momentum into a strong showing in the London mayoral
:40:11. > :40:21.Raphael Sheridan's been taking a look.
:40:22. > :40:26.The mayoral campaign is not always glamorous.
:40:27. > :40:30.But despite a rainy day in Enfield, the Green Party candidate,
:40:31. > :40:33.Sian Berry, was hoping to convince voters to go green on May the 5th.
:40:34. > :40:36.If you want a really radical mayor, you need to vote Green.
:40:37. > :40:39.Some just wanted to get out of the rain.
:40:40. > :40:41.Can I give you a leaflet about cleaner air?
:40:42. > :40:43.This is the second mayoral election Berry has stood in,
:40:44. > :40:48.Yes, do recommend me to all your friends.
:40:49. > :40:51.She is upbeat about the current campaign.
:40:52. > :40:54.It is going really well, we're getting of a fantastic
:40:55. > :41:00.response when we take our good ideas around the doorsteps.
:41:01. > :41:06.Today we are talking about our clean air plans.
:41:07. > :41:08.They have been rated 10 out of 0 by the campaigners.
:41:09. > :41:13.My cycling policies got rated 1 out of 10 yesterday.
:41:14. > :41:15.So what are the Greens' big ideas in this election?
:41:16. > :41:18.On housing, they would build 20 ,000 new homes by 2020, half
:41:19. > :41:22.On transport, they will abolish the zonal system on the underground
:41:23. > :41:24.by 2025, meaning everyone will pay a flat fare to travel
:41:25. > :41:28.They will introduce a so-called ONE Ticket so that commuters will not
:41:29. > :41:30.pay to switch between buses, tubes and trains.
:41:31. > :41:33.And on air pollution, they will switch all buses and taxis
:41:34. > :41:36.Two weeks ago, the Greens released their manifesto for Londoners.
:41:37. > :41:39.There was lots on how best to run the capital,
:41:40. > :41:41.but very little on the party's long-term policies, including
:41:42. > :41:47.radical aspirations for a zero or negative growth economy.
:41:48. > :41:49.Some critics believe that this radicalism is bubbling just under
:41:50. > :41:59.They are aiming for what people might call social engineering.
:42:00. > :42:02.They're opposed to economic growth, industrialisation, all the things
:42:03. > :42:10.They sometimes appear to be, basically, to have the economic
:42:11. > :42:13.views of the 1750s, but with radical 21st-century social justice
:42:14. > :42:20.A few months before the unexpected rise of Jeremy Corbyn
:42:21. > :42:23.to the leadership of the Labour Party, the Greens also
:42:24. > :42:29.had their own unprecedented rise in the number of members joining.
:42:30. > :42:31.It was something the leadership called the Green Surge,
:42:32. > :42:35.The difficulty the Greens have is that in some
:42:36. > :42:38.ways their representatives are too nice, they are Green in one sense
:42:39. > :42:44.They cannot do the deals, do the hard things which would go
:42:45. > :42:52.against their and their voters' principles, which you need to do
:42:53. > :42:55.to get into power, to have any chance of a big change to society
:42:56. > :42:58.In the assembly election, in the mayoral election,
:42:59. > :43:01.it is easier for them to make progress, and even then,
:43:02. > :43:07.Two seats seems to be as much as they can get on the assembly
:43:08. > :43:12.The Green contingent at City Hall, assembly members Jenny Jones
:43:13. > :43:15.and Darren Johnson, are standing down, so it is up to Sian Berry
:43:16. > :43:17.to convince Londoners that the Green Party has
:43:18. > :43:25.And Sian Berry joins me in the studio.
:43:26. > :43:32.Let's talk about housing. It is a big issue. You want to build 20 ,000
:43:33. > :43:38.homes by 2020. That surely means building on the green belt? It does
:43:39. > :43:42.not, we have lots of public land we can use. We must keep the principle
:43:43. > :43:47.of Brownfield land first, town centres first for as long as we can.
:43:48. > :43:50.The next London plan should not relax taxes for the green belt. When
:43:51. > :43:56.we have built 200,000 relax taxes for the green belt. When
:43:57. > :43:59.may be short of space and we will have to think hard about whether we
:44:00. > :44:02.include Ciani green belt or jump over it and start with new kinds and
:44:03. > :44:07.things like that. For the next 5 years I think we're OK. You want to
:44:08. > :44:11.prioritise Brownfield sites, so does everyone. They are not always
:44:12. > :44:14.appropriate and some of them are highly toxic. Shelter says that most
:44:15. > :44:19.of the Brownfield land already has houses on its you would have to look
:44:20. > :44:23.at it before 15 years' time. I do not agree. I think there is lots you
:44:24. > :44:29.can get from building on top of the homes that we'll ready have, you can
:44:30. > :44:32.do some creative things with infilling. We have lots of car park
:44:33. > :44:35.in London we will maybe needing in the future because we will have
:44:36. > :44:41.better and cheaper public transport. I think we are OK for the next 5
:44:42. > :44:44.years. Relaxing the protections too soon and would lead to Greenfield
:44:45. > :44:50.being used first. That would be wrong. You have said in your
:44:51. > :44:54.manifesto that about half of the 2000 homes you want to build will be
:44:55. > :44:56.affordable but you do not provide a definition? In a sense it is
:44:57. > :45:07.meaningful. We need to define a living rent In
:45:08. > :45:12.a quite sophisticated way, we need to look at it at a London level At
:45:13. > :45:19.the moment we are paying round half hour average salary is going on rent
:45:20. > :45:27.across London and that is too high. What is in your manifesto? People
:45:28. > :45:32.believe about 30-35% is affordable. Shouldn't that be in your manifesto,
:45:33. > :45:37.because people want to know. I think shouting out a number isn't the
:45:38. > :45:42.right answer here. When you say you have an affordable figure, you
:45:43. > :45:46.haven't actually got one yet. Tony Travers in that video was talking
:45:47. > :45:53.about how we don't do deals, we do do deals. We won the living wage
:45:54. > :45:57.unit for Ken Livingstone. That calculates a different living wage
:45:58. > :46:05.for Londoners because we have different costs. Just saying 35 , it
:46:06. > :46:09.might be too low or too hi. But that will have an impact on the number of
:46:10. > :46:13.affordable homes you can build, depending on the figures. We are
:46:14. > :46:18.talking radically about changing the market in housing. We cannot just
:46:19. > :46:22.keep begging the big developers for more affordable homes because they
:46:23. > :46:27.are good at getting out of that Do you think you can do a lot better?
:46:28. > :46:31.Yes, we need to ditch the model we have at the moment and use the
:46:32. > :46:36.alternative, using public land and working with small developers,
:46:37. > :46:42.people who want to build their own homes, co-operatives and councils
:46:43. > :46:46.and build a secondary market. I think it is a model that could
:46:47. > :46:51.really work and get affordable homes to buy and rent on that land we
:46:52. > :47:01.have. Let's talk about transport because in the film you talked about
:47:02. > :47:05.a new affordable ticket, how much would that cost? We have spoken to
:47:06. > :47:09.Transport for London about this they estimate that adding a bus
:47:10. > :47:18.journey to every tube journey would cost around about up to ?300 million
:47:19. > :47:22.a year in the budget. How would you pay for that? Overall, including the
:47:23. > :47:26.plan to bring down fares into central London we think about 1 % of
:47:27. > :47:32.the fares income would be lost that way and we propose to get that back
:47:33. > :47:37.by increasing the costs for driving in the inner-city. It is very
:47:38. > :47:45.speculative, isn't it? We could bring in a new congestion charge
:47:46. > :47:53.that covers the whole city. At the moment their drivers contribute 40%,
:47:54. > :47:57.car drivers only 2%. A congestion charge that covers the whole of
:47:58. > :48:02.London needs to be combined with a new emission zone and that is the
:48:03. > :48:06.right way to go. People who take public transport are doing the right
:48:07. > :48:14.thing. But you would be leaving Transport for London with a quarter
:48:15. > :48:20.of a million back -- black hole We would bring in the congestion charge
:48:21. > :48:25.and the lower emissions zone over several years using lots of
:48:26. > :48:29.consultation. There wouldn't be any black holes and we are committed to
:48:30. > :48:35.investing more in public transport and walking and cycling and sorting
:48:36. > :48:41.out town centres. You want to close down City Airport, what do you say
:48:42. > :48:47.to the 2000 people who work there? I think there's a real opportunity at
:48:48. > :48:52.City Airport to shift the flight there, and that would free up
:48:53. > :48:56.500,000 square metres of space. The vision you can have for that amount
:48:57. > :49:03.of space in London, I mean you're talking about the lack of brownfield
:49:04. > :49:08.land, we have an airport's worth there. People are blighted by air
:49:09. > :49:15.pollution, it would make a real difference to their lives too. Do
:49:16. > :49:20.you support the idea of a zero growth or even negative growth
:49:21. > :49:23.economy in the long run? We are inevitably going to grow in London
:49:24. > :49:28.because our population is increasing. But I think we need to
:49:29. > :49:33.build a more resilient economy. I will be launching my plans for a
:49:34. > :49:37.bank for London which will help small businesses grow, beer space
:49:38. > :49:44.for people to quickly save as well so more of the Londonerseconomy
:49:45. > :49:51.stays here and not going to tax havens. What about security and
:49:52. > :49:54.crime? The Mayor of London oversees the Metropolitan Police and one of
:49:55. > :49:59.the policies on the Green Party s website says it should not be a
:50:00. > :50:05.crime is simply to belong to an organisation or have sympathy with
:50:06. > :50:11.its aims. Should being a member of ISIS or Al-Qaeda not be a criminal
:50:12. > :50:15.offence? Organisations committed to violent terrorism is something that
:50:16. > :50:24.should be illegal, but police in London need to be working with
:50:25. > :50:30.communities, we need to rewrite the police's priorities. We have members
:50:31. > :50:36.with certain aspects of policing and surveillance, also the Prevent
:50:37. > :50:39.strategy. What do you make of the front-page story that Sadiq Khan
:50:40. > :50:44.shared a platform with a man convicted of terrorism in 2003.
:50:45. > :50:55.Serious concerns? These attacks keep on coming against Sadiq. I think the
:50:56. > :50:59.attack today is about a conference which was about the treatment of
:51:00. > :51:04.prisoners in Guantanamo Bay and we know there was injustice there. It
:51:05. > :51:08.is about due process. These attacks are coming from the Conservative
:51:09. > :51:10.campaign, they are seeking to divide London and that's not the campaign
:51:11. > :51:13.we want to see in London. Just 12 months ago,
:51:14. > :51:16.the Lib Dems were riding high - part of the Coalition Government,
:51:17. > :51:18.they were never far from a ministerial car and team
:51:19. > :51:20.of civil servants ready Battered at the General Election,
:51:21. > :51:25.they were slung out of office and their number of MPs in London
:51:26. > :51:28.reduced from seven to just one. They say the Mayoral election
:51:29. > :51:31.is where the fightback begins. Andrew Cryan has been out
:51:32. > :51:34.on the campaign trail Winning elections in one of the most
:51:35. > :51:48.diverse cities on Earth takes This week two-time London Assembly
:51:49. > :51:58.member and the Liberal Democrat candidate for mayor,
:51:59. > :52:00.Caroline Pidgeon, was courting it as a backdrop for her next
:52:01. > :52:03.party election broadcast. When you ask Liberal Democrats,
:52:04. > :52:06.they will tell you that this election is where their fightback
:52:07. > :52:07.begins. Not just here in London,
:52:08. > :52:10.but for the whole country. Which is all very well to say,
:52:11. > :52:17.but how on earth do you do it? Well, talk about the issues that
:52:18. > :52:19.matter to Londoners, talk about my record of eight years
:52:20. > :52:21.on the London Assembly. Out there talking to people
:52:22. > :52:24.about housing, about how we can build more homes
:52:25. > :52:26.across London, how we can improve Talking about real issues that
:52:27. > :52:30.affect people's everyday lives. That's what they're interested in,
:52:31. > :52:32.and that's why I think we're So, what exactly are these policies
:52:33. > :52:36.which the Lib Dems claim On housing they're hoping to build
:52:37. > :52:40.200,000 new homes, part paid for by putting 20 quid a year
:52:41. > :52:43.on Londoners' council tax bill, in a similar way to how
:52:44. > :52:46.we paid for the Olympics. On transport she wants the Tube
:52:47. > :52:49.to be half price before 7:30am, and to introduce
:52:50. > :52:54.a flat one-hour bus fare. She also wants to see investment
:52:55. > :52:57.in childcare paid for by a ?2 The Liberal Democrats are,
:52:58. > :53:04.I think, going for a very I think anybody would read
:53:05. > :53:08.Caroline Pidgeon's policy platform and say there was much in it that
:53:09. > :53:13.couldn't be adopted by Labour or the Conservatives, or indeed
:53:14. > :53:17.by most reasonable politicians. In fact if you look
:53:18. > :53:21.at their website, a lot of what Caroline Pidgeon has
:53:22. > :53:26.been doing is classic Liberal Democrat campaigning,
:53:27. > :53:29.which is out at a road or a school, One thing that is different
:53:30. > :53:33.about this campaign On the ballot they will be called
:53:34. > :53:38.Caroline Pidgeon's London According to Mark Littlewood,
:53:39. > :53:42.the party's former director of communications, the whole
:53:43. > :53:46.campaign is a bit lacklustre. Her aim is surely a relatively
:53:47. > :53:51.modest one, to get the Liberal Democrats back into the foothills
:53:52. > :53:54.of electoral credibility, to maybe get 5% more of the vote,
:53:55. > :53:57.to retain one or two I wonder whether she should have
:53:58. > :54:02.done something a bit more I think a bold policy on airports
:54:03. > :54:06.would have been interesting. Could there be a more Liberal
:54:07. > :54:11.approach to drugs policy? That's not the sort of thing that
:54:12. > :54:14.gets you to 40 or 50% of the vote, but given that she has absolutely
:54:15. > :54:17.no chance of winning, why not actually put a flag
:54:18. > :54:20.in the ground on a couple of core Liberal issues which I think
:54:21. > :54:23.would appeal to a smallish but nevertheless miserable
:54:24. > :54:25.segment of the electorate But back on the campaign trail,
:54:26. > :54:30.Caroline Pidgeon's London Liberal Democrats are upbeat,
:54:31. > :54:32.confident they will do better Having been beaten so badly,
:54:33. > :54:52.doing worse could mean something You say this election is where the
:54:53. > :54:57.fightback begins, isn't the truth that the party has done so badly at
:54:58. > :55:01.the last elections in London that anything other than near
:55:02. > :55:10.obliteration is a fightback? No we have seen since the general election
:55:11. > :55:14.in London our vote going up. We have seen our vote growing but what I'm
:55:15. > :55:19.finding is a really fantastic response from people across London,
:55:20. > :55:24.liking what we are saying, liking that I have eight years' experience
:55:25. > :55:30.at City Hall. But as Tony Travers was saying they are policies that
:55:31. > :55:33.could be adopted by the other parties, there is nothing
:55:34. > :55:36.distinctive Liberal Democrat. The whole manifesto is distinctly
:55:37. > :55:43.Liberal Democrat, clear policies I have been working on over the last
:55:44. > :55:47.eight years in the London Assembly. Building homes, having effective
:55:48. > :55:52.fare cuts to help low-income workers going into work. I am the only
:55:53. > :55:56.candidate talking about the cost of childcare in London. Being a mother
:55:57. > :56:02.myself with the two -year-old, I know how I watering the costs are.
:56:03. > :56:08.Why have you rebranded the party with this new name, Caroline
:56:09. > :56:11.Pidgeon's London Liberal Democrats? Making it clear that in this
:56:12. > :56:17.election you are voting not only for the mayor but the London Assembly.
:56:18. > :56:21.This new title will elect a team of Liberal Democrats who will hold
:56:22. > :56:26.whoever is mayor to their promises. It is a distinct way of linking the
:56:27. > :56:31.mayoral election with the London Assembly. Your name is there, isn't
:56:32. > :56:36.it then about personality? Because that's what the previous incumbents
:56:37. > :56:40.and the current one have done. I have been working hard for the last
:56:41. > :56:45.eight years on different issues across London so my record for
:56:46. > :56:51.action for eight years is making sure people are clear, if you like
:56:52. > :56:55.what Caroline says, you can vote Caroline Pidgeon's London Liberal
:56:56. > :57:01.Democrats and make sure every vote counts. Wouldn't it be better to
:57:02. > :57:04.concentrate on the big prize, which is to be mayor? Or is it an
:57:05. > :57:10.admission that realistically it will be much more about the team because
:57:11. > :57:14.you won't be the next mayor? The profile of the mayoral candidate is
:57:15. > :57:18.what everyone focuses on so we are making it clear, if you like what
:57:19. > :57:22.Caroline is saying, this is how you can vote for her and her team to
:57:23. > :57:28.make sure you have people at City Hall holding the mayor to their
:57:29. > :57:36.promises. Let's have a look at some of those policies. Housing, as I
:57:37. > :57:40.spoke to Sian Berry, the detail to charge people ?20 on their council
:57:41. > :57:45.tax bill to pay from our housing. How much will that raise? This is
:57:46. > :57:49.what people in London have been paying for the last ten years, we
:57:50. > :57:55.have been paying it for the Olympic Games, it works out at 32p per week
:57:56. > :58:05.and from that we can raise ?86 million per year. We then use that
:58:06. > :58:09.to fund borrowing and we can borrow around ?2 billion. I am the only
:58:10. > :58:13.candidate working out how we can raise money to put in to make sure
:58:14. > :58:18.we can fund the homes. It is still quite small scale. We are talking
:58:19. > :58:27.about 4000 homes if you raise 2 billion at the London market price.
:58:28. > :58:34.We are building extra homes on top of the budget we already have and
:58:35. > :58:38.the ?2 billion is a subsidy of around 260,000 per property and that
:58:39. > :58:43.with the GLA land means we can build the homes we need. Everyone is
:58:44. > :58:49.talking numbers of homes, I am the only candidate with a clear costed
:58:50. > :58:53.policy. You have said you are trying to raise money and obviously
:58:54. > :58:58.building more houses is part of the answer, but for example in
:58:59. > :59:05.Southwark, the rebuilding of just one estate, the Aylesbury is said to
:59:06. > :59:11.cost ?1.5 billion, that's one estate and that is only just under what you
:59:12. > :59:16.will raise overall. But the estate is huge, thousands of homes. This
:59:17. > :59:20.with the GLA land makes it clear we can build the council housing we
:59:21. > :59:25.need but we've also got to tackle those in private rented
:59:26. > :59:29.accommodation. One in four people renting privately, we have got to
:59:30. > :59:34.tackle rogue landlords. I want to make sure every landlord has a
:59:35. > :59:41.kitemark so you know I won't have these terrible fees, I will get a
:59:42. > :59:46.good service. Let's look at another policy area because Mark Littlewood
:59:47. > :59:49.also talked about having a bolder policy platform, gave drugs reform
:59:50. > :59:54.as an example of a strong liberal policy that would attract a strong
:59:55. > :00:01.minority of voters. Should that be more of a focus in your manifesto?
:00:02. > :00:05.No, we have clear policy nationally around drugs. When I speak to people
:00:06. > :00:10.on the streets, that's not the issue that comes up, it is tackling knife
:00:11. > :00:17.crime, having more visible policing on the streets, and that is what our
:00:18. > :00:20.manifesto focuses on. Putting youth workers in A, making sure that
:00:21. > :00:25.when the young person comes in with an injury they can be diverted away
:00:26. > :00:32.from gangs and given support. It is a big deal for the National party
:00:33. > :00:38.policy but not for you? When I talk to people it is about knife crime, I
:00:39. > :00:41.am the only candidate putting money into pay for 3000 additional police
:00:42. > :00:45.to make sure Londoners feel safe as they move around the city. That s
:00:46. > :00:50.the priorities I've had from Londoners and that is what I will
:00:51. > :00:55.deliver on. What do you make of the front page of Sadiq Khan, the Labour
:00:56. > :01:00.candidate for mayor, and the fact he shared a platform with a man
:01:01. > :01:09.convicted of terrorism in 2003? I am fed up of the mudslinging. The real
:01:10. > :01:13.issues are how we will tackle the housing crisis, how people can feel
:01:14. > :01:18.safe on the streets, this is what people are talking to me about. You
:01:19. > :01:23.don't think your prospective voters will be concerned about that? There
:01:24. > :01:28.is so much mudslinging, no one knows what to believe. There can be a
:01:29. > :01:33.photo, you have no idea who they are and they can later turn out to be
:01:34. > :01:37.some extremist. You have to be careful but my focus is on the
:01:38. > :01:41.issues, and I wish the candidates would work out how we can make
:01:42. > :01:46.London work for everyone. What would you advise your voters to do with
:01:47. > :01:50.their second preference? It is up to them. I am after Liberal Democrat
:01:51. > :01:57.votes for mayor to make sure we have a strong Liberal Democrat presence.
:01:58. > :02:01.Odds of you becoming next mayor Who knows but the more people who talk
:02:02. > :02:03.to me, the more I am convincing people.
:02:04. > :02:07.My thanks to Caroline and Sian Berry, who was with us earlier.
:02:08. > :02:10.Just a reminder - here is a list of all the candidates running
:02:11. > :02:13.for mayor, and you can find full details of the election
:02:14. > :02:16.Polling day is on Thursday 5th of May.
:02:17. > :02:19.I do hope you can join us next week, when our guest is the Labour
:02:20. > :02:24.Now, the Treasury wading into the referendum campaign,
:02:25. > :02:27.the government will get its first look at the Chilcot report,
:02:28. > :02:45.Janan, we're going to get the Treasury report on what it would
:02:46. > :02:50.mean for the economy we leave the EU. The Chancellor will wade in as
:02:51. > :02:56.well. It is supposed to be pretty bad, the consequences. Given that
:02:57. > :03:01.the Chancellor's stalk is not as its highest, does it matter? Probably
:03:02. > :03:05.not. Even if his stock were much higher, it is still the government
:03:06. > :03:09.advocating for its own positions are your average water might look at it
:03:10. > :03:15.and think, they would say that, wouldn't they? On its own, the
:03:16. > :03:19.Treasury report and the IMF does not matter, Mark Carney's interventions
:03:20. > :03:26.do not matter, the big business interventions do not matter. Combine
:03:27. > :03:31.them in the run-up to the June 3rd vote, the drip, drip of mainstream
:03:32. > :03:37.opinion, however you want to phrase it, probably does impinge on the
:03:38. > :03:40.minds of the nervous swing voter. There is a massive antiestablishment
:03:41. > :03:44.Zeitgeist in this country and internationally. You can resent the
:03:45. > :03:47.establishment and still take them seriously when the unified on the
:03:48. > :03:54.question of pounds and pence and the family budget. That is the issue.
:03:55. > :03:59.The Remain campaign has all the big battalions on its side. The issue
:04:00. > :04:06.is, if you listen to the big battalions and you read them, then
:04:07. > :04:11.you would vote to remain. As Janan says, as we see in America, we can
:04:12. > :04:17.see here as well, lots of antiestablishment sentiment is
:04:18. > :04:23.around. If you have David Cameron, Lord Ashdown, Neil Kinnock, the
:04:24. > :04:27.president of America, Goldman Sachs, the IMF, the CBI, it could be these
:04:28. > :04:32.are the people that they want to take it out on? Absolutely. I was
:04:33. > :04:37.speaking to someone prominent from the Brexit lot yesterday, and they
:04:38. > :04:42.said the cheered when they saw the photograph of Neil Kinnock and David
:04:43. > :04:46.Cameron lined up. They think that plays to their cause. I agree with
:04:47. > :04:52.pretty much everything that Janan said, it is the drip. People do not
:04:53. > :04:56.go into the details, but get a sense of things. The antiestablishment
:04:57. > :05:03.feeling is something that is accumulating. You feel it out there,
:05:04. > :05:08.definitely. George Osborne takes the view that he could actually lose the
:05:09. > :05:12.argument in one area, the process argument, which is, it is outrageous
:05:13. > :05:17.the government is spending ?9 million on this leaflet, this is not
:05:18. > :05:21.the done thing, the Electoral Commission are not happy, and
:05:22. > :05:26.Brexit, when that arrogant, but the actor Mickey needs to win is the
:05:27. > :05:31.substance argument, what Janan was talking about. The electorate do not
:05:32. > :05:36.tune into the process argument. We do and we get excited, but the
:05:37. > :05:40.electorate get tuned into the substance arrogant, and that is
:05:41. > :05:44.where he thinks he will prevail In terms of the intervention by the
:05:45. > :05:48.Treasury, the Treasury has form on this. If you think back to the
:05:49. > :05:52.Scottish referendum they had a very meticulously prepared document. At
:05:53. > :05:56.the time, they were sitting on it and waiting for the exact moment
:05:57. > :06:00.with the thought it would be most powerful. Of course the Brexit side
:06:01. > :06:05.of things will have a very prepared for battle for everything that that
:06:06. > :06:11.report says, so I wonder if it will disappear into the key says, she
:06:12. > :06:16.says, on the one hand, on the other, and it will cancel out. This is the
:06:17. > :06:20.issue I cannot quite understand If you look at the reports on the line
:06:21. > :06:26.the Treasury and the Cancellara going to take, it is scary. They say
:06:27. > :06:30.the economy will be in a mess, billions lost on investment, rising
:06:31. > :06:36.unemployment, interest rates on mortgages might go up. Growth will
:06:37. > :06:40.be hit. Let's say all of that is true. All of that was true whether
:06:41. > :06:44.or not Mr Cameron had done his deal with Europe. Even if he had not done
:06:45. > :06:50.a deal with Europe, surely it would follow that we should still stay in
:06:51. > :06:53.a view except all that? Does that not undermine the government's
:06:54. > :06:58.credibility? It undermines the deal which no one has talked about since
:06:59. > :07:03.February. Tristram Hunt was the first one to mention it for a long
:07:04. > :07:09.time this morning. It is a complete irrelevance. If you believe, as the
:07:10. > :07:13.Treasury will I do, that Brexit is to Mendis existential economic risk,
:07:14. > :07:17.even calling a referendum, you would wonder why risk it. These are good
:07:18. > :07:22.arguments against David Cameron George Osborne, the government and
:07:23. > :07:27.its handling. I do not think it translates into an argument in
:07:28. > :07:29.favour of voting to leave. Jeremy Corbyn made his intervention last
:07:30. > :07:35.week with the speech. Do we know what else he's to do? Campaign with
:07:36. > :07:39.great enthusiasm to keep Britain in the European Union. We all know what
:07:40. > :07:45.Jeremy Corbyn things. He is from that element of the Labour Party,
:07:46. > :07:51.Tony Benn supporters, who campaigned for no in 1975. The signed up to the
:07:52. > :07:55.1983 manifesto that said that Britain should leave the European
:07:56. > :08:00.Union. He was in the element of the Labour Party that did not buy into
:08:01. > :08:04.the famous French intervention. He is ticking the box. When he was
:08:05. > :08:10.leader, he found himself boxed into a corner, signed up with Hilary Benn
:08:11. > :08:14.and membership of the European Union. The calculation the Jeremy
:08:15. > :08:19.Corbyn made was that he had much bigger battles to fight. Trident was
:08:20. > :08:24.a bigger issue for him. It is a problem for David Cameron. From the
:08:25. > :08:28.look of the opinion polls at the moment, a majority of Conservative
:08:29. > :08:33.inclined voters will vote to leave. To win, David Cameron needs to get
:08:34. > :08:37.out the Labour vote and the centre-left vote. If that is all Mr
:08:38. > :08:44.Corbyn is going to do, it may be more difficult. He sounded so have
:08:45. > :08:48.hearted. If I was on a Sunday newspaper, I would be deploying
:08:49. > :08:52.people to track Jeremy Corbyn at all these low profile events that he
:08:53. > :08:57.ghosted, where no one thinks there is any press, and let's hear what he
:08:58. > :09:02.really thinks. In private, I beg you would get the comments that would
:09:03. > :09:08.expose his true position. Howdy Remain get the Labour vote added? We
:09:09. > :09:10.need other votes. They need other advocates, Alistair Darling, a
:09:11. > :09:14.strong figure, still held an advocates, Alistair Darling, a
:09:15. > :09:22.Labour Party. It is difficult. advocates, Alistair Darling, a
:09:23. > :09:26.turnout in the referendum. Yes. What about the president of America
:09:27. > :09:31.coming here? We know what line he's going to take, but we do not know
:09:32. > :09:35.how he will coach it. Will that influence how people think about our
:09:36. > :09:39.position in Europe? To the extent that it is another voice on top of
:09:40. > :09:45.the ones that we mentioned earlier. In combination they matter more than
:09:46. > :09:48.they might matter individually. The reason that Obama matters
:09:49. > :09:51.disproportionately is a big part of the Leave argument rests on the idea
:09:52. > :09:55.that if you were to leave the European Union, there is a world of
:09:56. > :10:01.opportunity out there, and trade deals with countries like the US. We
:10:02. > :10:04.have made to answer one. Yes, so if one of the biggest foreign
:10:05. > :10:09.governments of the Lott intervenes, it undercuts the Leave argument by
:10:10. > :10:16.quite a bit. I imagine that before the referendum that the
:10:17. > :10:21.interventions by foreign governments will be more decisive than the
:10:22. > :10:28.interventions by big business domestically. It will not be phrased
:10:29. > :10:34.more strongly than that, do not expect any big trade deals. Will the
:10:35. > :10:37.president have much of an impact? I think the Brexit campaigners are
:10:38. > :10:42.surprisingly relaxed about this which suggest to me that they do not
:10:43. > :10:47.think he will have much impact. There is a sense that perhaps
:10:48. > :10:50.America, I am not saying President Obama himself, but America may not
:10:51. > :10:56.understand the real detail of this debate. I think that is clear. What
:10:57. > :11:00.did is that many people find so objectionable about the EU. There is
:11:01. > :11:05.always that thing about do not waltz over here and tell us what to do.
:11:06. > :11:08.The Brexit campaigners were not initially relaxed. There was a
:11:09. > :11:14.letter to the embassy saying that he should not be intervening. They got
:11:15. > :11:18.their act together and thought, that is a silly process argument, let's
:11:19. > :11:23.focus on the substance. Boris Johnson on the BBC saying that the
:11:24. > :11:27.president is a hypocrite, because he would not surrender that level of
:11:28. > :11:32.sovereignty, that is an argument on substance, where they should be
:11:33. > :11:36.focusing their attention. The Chilcot Report, of great longevity,
:11:37. > :11:40.it is going to Downing Street later this week. Downing Street will look
:11:41. > :11:44.through to see of their any national security implications before it is
:11:45. > :11:48.published. Should the report be published during the referendum
:11:49. > :11:54.campaign? I cannot see a principal reason why it should not. You could
:11:55. > :11:58.argue that if it pains the establishment, and leaving the EU is
:11:59. > :12:03.an antiestablishment thing to do, it favours one side over another. That
:12:04. > :12:07.is almost an indirect thing. If the report is ready and all the editing
:12:08. > :12:12.has been done, there is no reason in principle it cannot come out. I
:12:13. > :12:17.would agree. Does this favour one side of the other? It seems to me it
:12:18. > :12:21.does not. No doubt everything at the moment is being seen through the
:12:22. > :12:25.prism of the EU referendum campaign. At the end of the data is about the
:12:26. > :12:28.lessons that need to be learned and the families desperate for it to
:12:29. > :12:34.come out. We are desperate to see it. I am not arguing it should be
:12:35. > :12:37.delayed, I wondered about the principle. If you're
:12:38. > :12:41.antiestablishment minded and the establishment get some candid
:12:42. > :12:45.kicking in the report, or it confirms all you ever thought about
:12:46. > :12:50.it, it could have a marginal impact. Or you could say that Jacques Chirac
:12:51. > :12:54.and other EU leaders back in 20 3 said the conflict was a disaster,
:12:55. > :12:59.and maybe we should have a common foreign and Security policy. It
:13:00. > :13:03.would be more of an issue if Tony Blair was playing a massive role in
:13:04. > :13:07.the campaign. Where is he, with its Tony Blair? I heard he wanted to be
:13:08. > :13:12.more involved and he was advised to keep his head down. For some reason,
:13:13. > :13:15.the Remain people do not seem keen on having him. We are always
:13:16. > :13:17.available for interviews. Thank you. Next week, we're on at
:13:18. > :13:26.the later time of 1:40 Remember, if it's Sunday,
:13:27. > :13:34.it's the Sunday Politics.